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Stephenlimmh

Stephenlimmh

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2021-09-17

Like please

S&P ends modestly lower as rising Treasury yields offset robust retail data<blockquote>美国国债收益率上升抵消了强劲的零售数据，标普小幅收低</blockquote>

2021-09-08

Orange

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2021-08-22

Ok

Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股回调——长期关注这6家公司</blockquote>

2021-08-20

Oh dear

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2021-08-19

Know knowns, known unknowns, unknown unknowns

Tesla AI Day Is Thursday. Why It’s a Big Day for the Stock.<blockquote>特斯拉人工智能日是周四。为什么今天是该股的大日子。</blockquote>

2021-08-18

Is it really worth it to buy Tesla over byd?

Tesla Stock Sells off While Institutions Continue to Buy.<blockquote>特斯拉股票遭到抛售，而机构继续买入。</blockquote>

2021-08-17

Nice

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2021-08-16

Nice

Apple shares reached record high at $150.59 in early trading<blockquote>苹果股价早盘触及150.59美元的历史新高</blockquote>

2021-08-15

Maybe 0 maybe 1000

Where Will Virgin Galactic Stock Be In 10 Years?<blockquote>10年后维珍银河的股票会在哪里？</blockquote>

2021-08-13

Is railway really profitable?

Kansas City Southern sticks with CN Rail, rejects new Canadian Pacific offer<blockquote>堪萨斯城南方铁路公司坚持与加拿大国家铁路公司合作，拒绝加拿大太平洋公司的新报价</blockquote>

2021-08-12

The hackers had a conscience, lol.

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2021-08-12

Looks like the dow is not really down

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The S&P 500 ended slightly down on Thursday, paring losses in late trading afte","content":"<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 ended slightly down on Thursday, paring losses in late trading after unexpectedly strong retail sales data underscored the strength of the U.S. economic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>路透纽约7月20日电——标普500周四小幅收跌，尾盘收窄跌幅，此前意外强劲的零售销售数据突显美国经济复苏的力度。</blockquote></p><p> The three major indexes spent much of the day in negative territory as rising U.S. Treasury yields pressured market-leading tech stocks, and the rising dollar weighed on exporters.</p><p><blockquote>由于美国国债收益率上升给市场领先的科技股带来压力，以及美元上涨给出口商带来压力，三大股指当天大部分时间都处于负值区域。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon.com Inc, buoyed by solid online sales in the Commerce Department’s report, helped push the Nasdaq into positive territory.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊公司受到商务部报告中强劲的在线销售的提振，帮助推动纳斯达克进入积极区域。</blockquote></p><p> “Looking at today, clearly we had positive news from retail sales and it looks as if the massive slowdown in the economy is not materializing as a lot of people expected,” said Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist at LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina.</p><p><blockquote>北卡罗来纳州夏洛特LPL Financial高级市场策略师瑞安·德特里克(Ryan Detrick)表示：“从今天来看，显然我们收到了来自零售销售的积极消息，而且经济大幅放缓似乎并没有像许多人预期的那样成为现实。”</blockquote></p><p> “It’s a nice reminder that the economy is still taking two steps forward for each step back even amid the COVID concerns,” Detrick added.</p><p><blockquote>德特里克补充道：“这是一个很好的提醒，即使在新冠疫情担忧的情况下，经济仍然每后退一步就向前迈出两步。”</blockquote></p><p> Economically sensitive transports and microchips were among the outperformers.</p><p><blockquote>对经济敏感的运输和微芯片是表现优异的股票之一。</blockquote></p><p> Data released before the opening bell showed an unexpected bump in retail sales as shoppers weathered Hurricane Ida and the COVID Delta variant, evidence of resilience in the consumer, who contributes about 70% to U.S. economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>开盘前公布的数据显示，随着购物者经受住了飓风艾达和新冠德尔塔变异毒株，零售额意外增长，这证明了消费者的韧性，消费者对美国经济增长的贡献约为70%。</blockquote></p><p> “Once again, it shows the U.S. consumer continues to spend and continues to help this economy grow,” Detrick said.</p><p><blockquote>德特里克表示：“这再次表明美国消费者继续支出并继续帮助经济增长。”</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 63.07 points, or 0.18%, to 34,751.32; the S&amp;P 500 lost 6.95 points, or 0.16%, at 4,473.75; and the Nasdaq Composite added 20.40 points, or 0.13%, at 15,181.92.</p><p><blockquote>道琼工业指数跌63.07点，或0.18%，报34751.32点；标普500下跌6.95点，跌幅0.16%，报4,473.75点；纳斯达克综合指数上涨20.40点，即0.13%，至15,181.92点。</blockquote></p><p> Eight of the 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P 500 ended lower, with materials suffering the largest percentage drop.</p><p><blockquote>标普500 11大板块中有8个板块收跌，材料板块跌幅最大。</blockquote></p><p> The consumer discretionary spending sector posted the biggest gain, with Amazon.com doing the heavy lifting.</p><p><blockquote>非必需消费品支出板块涨幅最大，亚马逊首当其冲。</blockquote></p><p> Apparel company Gap Inc gained 1.6%. Online marketplace Etsy Inc and luxury accessory company Tapestry Inc rose 3.1% and 1.9%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>服装公司Gap Inc上涨1.6%。在线市场Etsy Inc和奢侈品配饰公司Tapestry Inc分别上涨3.1%和1.9%。</blockquote></p><p> Ford Motor Co rose 1.4% after it announced plans to boost production of its F-150 electric pickup model.</p><p><blockquote>福特汽车公司股价上涨1.4%，此前该公司宣布计划提高F-150电动皮卡车型的产量。</blockquote></p><p> Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.27-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.06-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌股与上涨股的比例为1.27比1；在纳斯达克，1.06比1的比率有利于上涨者。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted nine new 52-week highs and one new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 82 new highs and 94 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下9个52周新高和1个新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得82个新高和94个新低。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 9.37 billion shares, compared with the 9.44 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所成交量为93.7亿股，而过去20个交易日的平均成交量为94.4亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P ends modestly lower as rising Treasury yields offset robust retail data<blockquote>美国国债收益率上升抵消了强劲的零售数据，标普小幅收低</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-17 07:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 ended slightly down on Thursday, paring losses in late trading after unexpectedly strong retail sales data underscored the strength of the U.S. economic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>路透纽约7月20日电——标普500周四小幅收跌，尾盘收窄跌幅，此前意外强劲的零售销售数据突显美国经济复苏的力度。</blockquote></p><p> The three major indexes spent much of the day in negative territory as rising U.S. Treasury yields pressured market-leading tech stocks, and the rising dollar weighed on exporters.</p><p><blockquote>由于美国国债收益率上升给市场领先的科技股带来压力，以及美元上涨给出口商带来压力，三大股指当天大部分时间都处于负值区域。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon.com Inc, buoyed by solid online sales in the Commerce Department’s report, helped push the Nasdaq into positive territory.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊公司受到商务部报告中强劲的在线销售的提振，帮助推动纳斯达克进入积极区域。</blockquote></p><p> “Looking at today, clearly we had positive news from retail sales and it looks as if the massive slowdown in the economy is not materializing as a lot of people expected,” said Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist at LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina.</p><p><blockquote>北卡罗来纳州夏洛特LPL Financial高级市场策略师瑞安·德特里克(Ryan Detrick)表示：“从今天来看，显然我们收到了来自零售销售的积极消息，而且经济大幅放缓似乎并没有像许多人预期的那样成为现实。”</blockquote></p><p> “It’s a nice reminder that the economy is still taking two steps forward for each step back even amid the COVID concerns,” Detrick added.</p><p><blockquote>德特里克补充道：“这是一个很好的提醒，即使在新冠疫情担忧的情况下，经济仍然每后退一步就向前迈出两步。”</blockquote></p><p> Economically sensitive transports and microchips were among the outperformers.</p><p><blockquote>对经济敏感的运输和微芯片是表现优异的股票之一。</blockquote></p><p> Data released before the opening bell showed an unexpected bump in retail sales as shoppers weathered Hurricane Ida and the COVID Delta variant, evidence of resilience in the consumer, who contributes about 70% to U.S. economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>开盘前公布的数据显示，随着购物者经受住了飓风艾达和新冠德尔塔变异毒株，零售额意外增长，这证明了消费者的韧性，消费者对美国经济增长的贡献约为70%。</blockquote></p><p> “Once again, it shows the U.S. consumer continues to spend and continues to help this economy grow,” Detrick said.</p><p><blockquote>德特里克表示：“这再次表明美国消费者继续支出并继续帮助经济增长。”</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 63.07 points, or 0.18%, to 34,751.32; the S&amp;P 500 lost 6.95 points, or 0.16%, at 4,473.75; and the Nasdaq Composite added 20.40 points, or 0.13%, at 15,181.92.</p><p><blockquote>道琼工业指数跌63.07点，或0.18%，报34751.32点；标普500下跌6.95点，跌幅0.16%，报4,473.75点；纳斯达克综合指数上涨20.40点，即0.13%，至15,181.92点。</blockquote></p><p> Eight of the 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P 500 ended lower, with materials suffering the largest percentage drop.</p><p><blockquote>标普500 11大板块中有8个板块收跌，材料板块跌幅最大。</blockquote></p><p> The consumer discretionary spending sector posted the biggest gain, with Amazon.com doing the heavy lifting.</p><p><blockquote>非必需消费品支出板块涨幅最大，亚马逊首当其冲。</blockquote></p><p> Apparel company Gap Inc gained 1.6%. Online marketplace Etsy Inc and luxury accessory company Tapestry Inc rose 3.1% and 1.9%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>服装公司Gap Inc上涨1.6%。在线市场Etsy Inc和奢侈品配饰公司Tapestry Inc分别上涨3.1%和1.9%。</blockquote></p><p> Ford Motor Co rose 1.4% after it announced plans to boost production of its F-150 electric pickup model.</p><p><blockquote>福特汽车公司股价上涨1.4%，此前该公司宣布计划提高F-150电动皮卡车型的产量。</blockquote></p><p> Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.27-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.06-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌股与上涨股的比例为1.27比1；在纳斯达克，1.06比1的比率有利于上涨者。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted nine new 52-week highs and one new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 82 new highs and 94 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下9个52周新高和1个新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得82个新高和94个新低。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 9.37 billion shares, compared with the 9.44 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所成交量为93.7亿股，而过去20个交易日的平均成交量为94.4亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/us-stocks-sp-ends-modestly-lower-as-rising-treasury-yields-offset-robust-retail-data-idUSL1N2QI2MB\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/us-stocks-sp-ends-modestly-lower-as-rising-treasury-yields-offset-robust-retail-data-idUSL1N2QI2MB","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105376345","content_text":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 ended slightly down on Thursday, paring losses in late trading after unexpectedly strong retail sales data underscored the strength of the U.S. economic recovery.\nThe three major indexes spent much of the day in negative territory as rising U.S. Treasury yields pressured market-leading tech stocks, and the rising dollar weighed on exporters.\nAmazon.com Inc, buoyed by solid online sales in the Commerce Department’s report, helped push the Nasdaq into positive territory.\n“Looking at today, clearly we had positive news from retail sales and it looks as if the massive slowdown in the economy is not materializing as a lot of people expected,” said Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist at LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina.\n“It’s a nice reminder that the economy is still taking two steps forward for each step back even amid the COVID concerns,” Detrick added.\nEconomically sensitive transports and microchips were among the outperformers.\nData released before the opening bell showed an unexpected bump in retail sales as shoppers weathered Hurricane Ida and the COVID Delta variant, evidence of resilience in the consumer, who contributes about 70% to U.S. economic growth.\n“Once again, it shows the U.S. consumer continues to spend and continues to help this economy grow,” Detrick said.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 63.07 points, or 0.18%, to 34,751.32; the S&P 500 lost 6.95 points, or 0.16%, at 4,473.75; and the Nasdaq Composite added 20.40 points, or 0.13%, at 15,181.92.\nEight of the 11 major sectors in the S&P 500 ended lower, with materials suffering the largest percentage drop.\nThe consumer discretionary spending sector posted the biggest gain, with Amazon.com doing the heavy lifting.\nApparel company Gap Inc gained 1.6%. Online marketplace Etsy Inc and luxury accessory company Tapestry Inc rose 3.1% and 1.9%, respectively.\nFord Motor Co rose 1.4% after it announced plans to boost production of its F-150 electric pickup model.\nDeclining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.27-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.06-to-1 ratio favored advancers.\nThe S&P 500 posted nine new 52-week highs and one new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 82 new highs and 94 new lows.\nVolume on U.S. exchanges was 9.37 billion shares, compared with the 9.44 billion average over the last 20 trading days.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2122,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880216965,"gmtCreate":1631059637457,"gmtModify":1631890400759,"author":{"id":"4091706622349130","authorId":"4091706622349130","name":"Stephenlimmh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36bc849c38db97b89159d04639c780dd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091706622349130","idStr":"4091706622349130"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Orange","listText":"Orange","text":"Orange","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880216965","repostId":"1129020034","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1521,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832149329,"gmtCreate":1629600897661,"gmtModify":1631890499518,"author":{"id":"4091706622349130","authorId":"4091706622349130","name":"Stephenlimmh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36bc849c38db97b89159d04639c780dd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091706622349130","idStr":"4091706622349130"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832149329","repostId":"1151608193","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151608193","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629728324,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1151608193?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-23 22:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股回调——长期关注这6家公司</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151608193","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correcti","content":"<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iShares半导体ETF较近期高点下跌超过6%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p><p><blockquote>在股市的滚动调整中，芯片制造商受到的打击比大多数制造商都要严重。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&amp;P 500,Nasdaq&nbsp;Composite&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>iShares半导体ETF较近期高点下跌超过6%，而标普500、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为2%或更少。</blockquote></p><p> Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着芯片股值得买入？或者这个历史上周期性的行业是否会故技重施，进入持续下跌趋势，让你大吃一惊。</blockquote></p><p> A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于您的时间表，但如果您喜欢持有多年股票而不是租用几天，那么该集团是值得买入的。主要原因：“这次不一样。”</blockquote></p><p> Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，这些是投资中最可怕的词语之一。但芯片行业已经发生了如此大的变化，现在确实有所不同——这表明它不太可能压垮你。</blockquote></p><p> You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为没有风险，那你就是个傻瓜。我去看看那些。但首先，以下是该组织现在“更安全”的三个主要原因，以及过去几天我与之交谈的六位行业专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.周期性的邪恶女巫死了</b></blockquote></p><p> “Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p><p><blockquote>Impax Asset Management的投资组合经理David Winborne表示：“芯片行业的需求总是由产品周期驱动而繁荣和萧条。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>个人电脑，然后是服务器，然后是电话。”但他表示，现在整个经济对芯片的需求已经扩大，因此长期增长情况更加可预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>看看你周围。由于我们的生活和工作日益“数字化”，从各个角度来看，终端市场需求更加多样化。将远程办公服务视为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>看好该集团的Gabelli Funds投资组合经理兼科技分析师Hendi Susanto指出，在线购物、云服务、电动汽车、5G手机、智能工厂、大数据计算甚至洗衣机。</blockquote></p><p> “There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool芯片行业分析师John Rotonti表示：“现代数字经济的任何方面都离不开半导体。”“这意味着更多的芯片进入所有领域。长期需求是存在的。”</blockquote></p><p> He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William&nbsp;Blair&nbsp;analyst Greg Scolaro.</p><p><blockquote>他不是在开玩笑。William Blair分析师Greg Scolaro预测，到2030年，芯片行业的收入将从2020年的4650亿美元翻一番，达到1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着你所听到的普遍供应短缺“可能要到明年年底才能得到解决”，他说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>芯片行业分析师Vivek Arya。“这不仅仅是我们的观点，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>得到了大多数大客户的确认。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.玩家已经巩固</b></blockquote></p><p> All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p><p><blockquote>在生产链的上上下下，从设计到各种类型的设备生产商再到制造，行业参与者已经整合到罗通蒂·评级“赢得”的双头垄断或垄断中。</blockquote></p><p> In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems&nbsp;and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML&nbsp;in extreme ultraviolet lithography&nbsp;(EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor&nbsp;and Samsung Electronics.</p><p><blockquote>在芯片设计软件中，有Cadence Design Systems和Synopsys。在生产设备方面，公司在极紫外光刻（EUV）领域的ASML等专业领域占据主导地位。制造业由台积电和三星电子主导。</blockquote></p><p> These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司通过在他们所做的事情上做到最好来赢得他们的利基或双头垄断地位。这使得投资者对它们很感兴趣。罗通蒂表示，整合还意味着参与者在定价和产能方面表现得更加理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、盈利能力有所提升</b></blockquote></p><p> This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p><p><blockquote>这种更加理性的行为，加上成本削减，意味着现在的盈利能力远高于历史水平。“过去几年，芯片制造的经济性有了很大改善，”温伯恩说。现金流或EBITDA利润率现在通常超过30%，而十年前还在20%左右。</blockquote></p><p> This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere &amp; Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p><p><blockquote>这对估值有影响。Villere&amp;Co.的投资组合经理Lamar Villere指出，尽管芯片股的交易价格约为市场倍数，但它们看起来很便宜，因为它们是更好的公司。“他们的市盈率并不是泡沫。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The stocks to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>值得购买的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我最近调查的芯片专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New management plays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新的管理策略</b></blockquote></p><p> Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm&nbsp;and ON Semiconductor.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Thrivent的高级股票研究分析师Peter Karazeris有理由对该集团持谨慎态度（见下文），但他特别指出了两家公司，它们的业绩可能会因为在新管理层的领导下而得到提振：高通和安森美半导体。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p><p><blockquote>两者都具有稳健的盈利能力。高通最近受到了一次性问题的打击，例如德克萨斯州的恶劣天气导致生产中断，但该公司对5G手机趋势有很好的了解。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">安森美半导体</a>正在从手机扩展到汽车、工业和物联网互联设备领域等新领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A data center and gaming play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据中心和游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p><p><blockquote>Karazeris还特别提到了Nvidia，该公司因其卓越的设计能力而从数据中心和游戏设备芯片需求中获得持续增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Design tool companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>设计工具公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p><p><blockquote>说到设计，当像高通和英伟达这样的公司想要设计芯片时，他们会求助于Cadence Design Systems提供的设计工具和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">新思科技</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool的Rotonti解释说，他们基于软件的设计工具帮助芯片创新者为他们的芯片创建蓝图，他挑出了这些名字。“他们不是世界上最快的种植者，但他们有很好的利润率。”他们也主宰着这个空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An EUV&nbsp;play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EUV播放</b></blockquote></p><p> To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>为了在芯片生产的早期阶段将这些蓝图放在硅上，台积电和三星等公司转向ASML。它的机器使用微小的光脉冲将芯片设计模板到硅片上，这一过程被称为极紫外光刻。“没有人知道如何做到这一点，”罗通蒂说。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它在供应做到这一点的机器方面拥有垄断地位——这对于任何想要制造领先芯片的公司来说都是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p><p><blockquote>以下是芯片行业投资者需要关注的一些主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oversupply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供应过剩</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p><p><blockquote>芯片生产已经政治化。美国希望在国内生产更多产品，这样就不会受到中国供应链中断的影响。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>Winborne表示，希望到2025年生产70%的芯片，高于目前的5%。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p><p><blockquote>这里的结果是，有大量的政府支持来促进制造业——所以会有更多的支持。风险在于未来某个时候供应过剩。这也可能会推动芯片设备的购买，导致未来的平静，这可能会损害设备制造商的销售和利润趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple&nbsp;and Ammazon.com&nbsp;are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，像Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊这样的大型科技公司都在做自己的芯片设计，这威胁到了做同样事情的专业芯片公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">量子的</a>计算机的</b></blockquote></p><p> Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p><p><blockquote>William Blair的Scolaro指出，使用基于量子物理学的芯片设计而不是传统半导体架构的计算机具有卓越的性能。“虽然量子计算可能至少在未来五年内不会成为主流，但它有潜力改变从技术到医疗保健的一切。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A disturbing signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>令人不安的信号</b></blockquote></p><p> A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>全球采购经理人指数（PMI）在4月份达到顶峰，然后连续三个月减速。与此同时，芯片销售持续增长。在Thrivent跟踪这一指标的Karazeris指出，通常情况下，两者遵循相同的趋势。他将这种差异归因于库存建设，而库存建设的可持续性不如真实的终端市场需求。因此，他将这种背离视为芯片行业的看跌信号。</blockquote></p><p> Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory&nbsp;(DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p><p><blockquote>另一个警告信号来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片定价的预测疲软。“这些通常是你在周期顶部而不是底部看到的事情，”卡拉泽里斯说。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>但全球PMI放缓也有可能更多地反映了芯片短缺，而不是表明短缺并不真实（只是库存增加）。Leuthold经济学家兼策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)表示：“这种分歧并不一定意味着芯片订单会滚动并死亡。这意味着芯片制造业必须迎头赶上。”</blockquote></p><p> Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，福特刚刚宣布，由于芯片短缺，而不是潜在需求短缺，它不得不削减产量。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预测，由于高储蓄率、就业和收入反弹以及被压抑的大件商品需求等因素，良好的经济增长是可持续的。如果他是对的，持续的经济实力将支持对所有使用芯片的产品的需求——包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股回调——长期关注这6家公司</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股回调——长期关注这6家公司</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-23 22:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iShares半导体ETF较近期高点下跌超过6%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p><p><blockquote>在股市的滚动调整中，芯片制造商受到的打击比大多数制造商都要严重。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&amp;P 500,Nasdaq&nbsp;Composite&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>iShares半导体ETF较近期高点下跌超过6%，而标普500、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为2%或更少。</blockquote></p><p> Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着芯片股值得买入？或者这个历史上周期性的行业是否会故技重施，进入持续下跌趋势，让你大吃一惊。</blockquote></p><p> A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于您的时间表，但如果您喜欢持有多年股票而不是租用几天，那么该集团是值得买入的。主要原因：“这次不一样。”</blockquote></p><p> Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，这些是投资中最可怕的词语之一。但芯片行业已经发生了如此大的变化，现在确实有所不同——这表明它不太可能压垮你。</blockquote></p><p> You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为没有风险，那你就是个傻瓜。我去看看那些。但首先，以下是该组织现在“更安全”的三个主要原因，以及过去几天我与之交谈的六位行业专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.周期性的邪恶女巫死了</b></blockquote></p><p> “Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p><p><blockquote>Impax Asset Management的投资组合经理David Winborne表示：“芯片行业的需求总是由产品周期驱动而繁荣和萧条。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>个人电脑，然后是服务器，然后是电话。”但他表示，现在整个经济对芯片的需求已经扩大，因此长期增长情况更加可预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>看看你周围。由于我们的生活和工作日益“数字化”，从各个角度来看，终端市场需求更加多样化。将远程办公服务视为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>看好该集团的Gabelli Funds投资组合经理兼科技分析师Hendi Susanto指出，在线购物、云服务、电动汽车、5G手机、智能工厂、大数据计算甚至洗衣机。</blockquote></p><p> “There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool芯片行业分析师John Rotonti表示：“现代数字经济的任何方面都离不开半导体。”“这意味着更多的芯片进入所有领域。长期需求是存在的。”</blockquote></p><p> He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William&nbsp;Blair&nbsp;analyst Greg Scolaro.</p><p><blockquote>他不是在开玩笑。William Blair分析师Greg Scolaro预测，到2030年，芯片行业的收入将从2020年的4650亿美元翻一番，达到1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着你所听到的普遍供应短缺“可能要到明年年底才能得到解决”，他说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>芯片行业分析师Vivek Arya。“这不仅仅是我们的观点，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>得到了大多数大客户的确认。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.玩家已经巩固</b></blockquote></p><p> All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p><p><blockquote>在生产链的上上下下，从设计到各种类型的设备生产商再到制造，行业参与者已经整合到罗通蒂·评级“赢得”的双头垄断或垄断中。</blockquote></p><p> In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems&nbsp;and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML&nbsp;in extreme ultraviolet lithography&nbsp;(EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor&nbsp;and Samsung Electronics.</p><p><blockquote>在芯片设计软件中，有Cadence Design Systems和Synopsys。在生产设备方面，公司在极紫外光刻（EUV）领域的ASML等专业领域占据主导地位。制造业由台积电和三星电子主导。</blockquote></p><p> These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司通过在他们所做的事情上做到最好来赢得他们的利基或双头垄断地位。这使得投资者对它们很感兴趣。罗通蒂表示，整合还意味着参与者在定价和产能方面表现得更加理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、盈利能力有所提升</b></blockquote></p><p> This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p><p><blockquote>这种更加理性的行为，加上成本削减，意味着现在的盈利能力远高于历史水平。“过去几年，芯片制造的经济性有了很大改善，”温伯恩说。现金流或EBITDA利润率现在通常超过30%，而十年前还在20%左右。</blockquote></p><p> This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere &amp; Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p><p><blockquote>这对估值有影响。Villere&amp;Co.的投资组合经理Lamar Villere指出，尽管芯片股的交易价格约为市场倍数，但它们看起来很便宜，因为它们是更好的公司。“他们的市盈率并不是泡沫。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The stocks to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>值得购买的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我最近调查的芯片专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New management plays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新的管理策略</b></blockquote></p><p> Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm&nbsp;and ON Semiconductor.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Thrivent的高级股票研究分析师Peter Karazeris有理由对该集团持谨慎态度（见下文），但他特别指出了两家公司，它们的业绩可能会因为在新管理层的领导下而得到提振：高通和安森美半导体。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p><p><blockquote>两者都具有稳健的盈利能力。高通最近受到了一次性问题的打击，例如德克萨斯州的恶劣天气导致生产中断，但该公司对5G手机趋势有很好的了解。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">安森美半导体</a>正在从手机扩展到汽车、工业和物联网互联设备领域等新领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A data center and gaming play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据中心和游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p><p><blockquote>Karazeris还特别提到了Nvidia，该公司因其卓越的设计能力而从数据中心和游戏设备芯片需求中获得持续增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Design tool companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>设计工具公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p><p><blockquote>说到设计，当像高通和英伟达这样的公司想要设计芯片时，他们会求助于Cadence Design Systems提供的设计工具和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">新思科技</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool的Rotonti解释说，他们基于软件的设计工具帮助芯片创新者为他们的芯片创建蓝图，他挑出了这些名字。“他们不是世界上最快的种植者，但他们有很好的利润率。”他们也主宰着这个空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An EUV&nbsp;play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EUV播放</b></blockquote></p><p> To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>为了在芯片生产的早期阶段将这些蓝图放在硅上，台积电和三星等公司转向ASML。它的机器使用微小的光脉冲将芯片设计模板到硅片上，这一过程被称为极紫外光刻。“没有人知道如何做到这一点，”罗通蒂说。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它在供应做到这一点的机器方面拥有垄断地位——这对于任何想要制造领先芯片的公司来说都是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p><p><blockquote>以下是芯片行业投资者需要关注的一些主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oversupply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供应过剩</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p><p><blockquote>芯片生产已经政治化。美国希望在国内生产更多产品，这样就不会受到中国供应链中断的影响。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>Winborne表示，希望到2025年生产70%的芯片，高于目前的5%。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p><p><blockquote>这里的结果是，有大量的政府支持来促进制造业——所以会有更多的支持。风险在于未来某个时候供应过剩。这也可能会推动芯片设备的购买，导致未来的平静，这可能会损害设备制造商的销售和利润趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple&nbsp;and Ammazon.com&nbsp;are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，像Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊这样的大型科技公司都在做自己的芯片设计，这威胁到了做同样事情的专业芯片公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">量子的</a>计算机的</b></blockquote></p><p> Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p><p><blockquote>William Blair的Scolaro指出，使用基于量子物理学的芯片设计而不是传统半导体架构的计算机具有卓越的性能。“虽然量子计算可能至少在未来五年内不会成为主流，但它有潜力改变从技术到医疗保健的一切。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A disturbing signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>令人不安的信号</b></blockquote></p><p> A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>全球采购经理人指数（PMI）在4月份达到顶峰，然后连续三个月减速。与此同时，芯片销售持续增长。在Thrivent跟踪这一指标的Karazeris指出，通常情况下，两者遵循相同的趋势。他将这种差异归因于库存建设，而库存建设的可持续性不如真实的终端市场需求。因此，他将这种背离视为芯片行业的看跌信号。</blockquote></p><p> Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory&nbsp;(DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p><p><blockquote>另一个警告信号来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片定价的预测疲软。“这些通常是你在周期顶部而不是底部看到的事情，”卡拉泽里斯说。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>但全球PMI放缓也有可能更多地反映了芯片短缺，而不是表明短缺并不真实（只是库存增加）。Leuthold经济学家兼策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)表示：“这种分歧并不一定意味着芯片订单会滚动并死亡。这意味着芯片制造业必须迎头赶上。”</blockquote></p><p> Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，福特刚刚宣布，由于芯片短缺，而不是潜在需求短缺，它不得不削减产量。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预测，由于高储蓄率、就业和收入反弹以及被压抑的大件商品需求等因素，良好的经济增长是可持续的。如果他是对的，持续的经济实力将支持对所有使用芯片的产品的需求——包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SOXX":"iShares费城交易所半导体ETF","GOOGL":"谷歌A","GOOG":"谷歌","SNPS":"新思科技","TSM":"台积电","AAPL":"苹果","NVDA":"英伟达","SSNLF":"三星电子","ON":"安森美半导体","CDNS":"铿腾电子","AMZN":"亚马逊","ASML":"阿斯麦","QCOM":"高通"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151608193","content_text":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.\nThe iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&P 500,Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.\nDoes that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.\nA lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”\nThose are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.\nYou’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.\n1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead\n“Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “First PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.\nJust look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like Zoom, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.\n“There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”\nHe’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William Blair analyst Greg Scolaro.\nAll of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says Bank of America chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but one confirmed by a majority of large customers.”\n2. The players have consolidated\nAll up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.\nIn chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML in extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung Electronics.\nThese companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.\n3. Profitability has improved\nThis more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.\nThis has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere & Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”\nThe stocks to buy\nHere are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.\nNew management plays\nThough Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm and ON Semiconductor.\nBoth have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. ON Semiconductor is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.\nA data center and gaming play\nKarazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.\nDesign tool companies\nSpeaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.\nTheir software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.\nAn EUV play\nTo put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.\nIn other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.\nRisks\nHere are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.\nOversupply\nChip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. China wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.\nThe upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.\nNext, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple and Ammazon.com are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.\nQuantum computing\nComputers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”\nA disturbing signal\nA blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.\nAnother cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.\nBut it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.\nFord,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.\nPaulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including Ford cars.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QCOM":0.9,"CDNS":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9,"ON":0.9,"SSNLF":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"ASML":0.9,"SNPS":0.9,"SOXX":0.9,"TSM":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"NVDA":0.9,"GOOG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1432,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":836106966,"gmtCreate":1629461558255,"gmtModify":1631890499530,"author":{"id":"4091706622349130","authorId":"4091706622349130","name":"Stephenlimmh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36bc849c38db97b89159d04639c780dd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091706622349130","idStr":"4091706622349130"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh dear","listText":"Oh dear","text":"Oh dear","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/836106966","repostId":"1180272232","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1559,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831776729,"gmtCreate":1629354648661,"gmtModify":1631890499539,"author":{"id":"4091706622349130","authorId":"4091706622349130","name":"Stephenlimmh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36bc849c38db97b89159d04639c780dd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091706622349130","idStr":"4091706622349130"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Know knowns, known unknowns, unknown unknowns","listText":"Know knowns, known unknowns, unknown unknowns","text":"Know knowns, known unknowns, unknown unknowns","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831776729","repostId":"1181909905","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181909905","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629332628,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181909905?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-19 08:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla AI Day Is Thursday. Why It’s a Big Day for the Stock.<blockquote>特斯拉人工智能日是周四。为什么今天是该股的大日子。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181909905","media":"Barrons","summary":"Former defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld said there are known knowns—things people know—known unknowns—things people know they don’t know—and unknown unknowns—things people don’t realize they don’t know. That pretty much sums up autonomous driving technology these days.It isn’t clear how long it will take the auto industry to deliver truly self-driving cars. Thursday evening, however, investors will get an education about what’s state of the art when Tesla  hosts its artificial intelligence day.","content":"<p>Former defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld said there are known knowns—things people know—known unknowns—things people know they don’t know—and unknown unknowns—things people don’t realize they don’t know. That pretty much sums up autonomous driving technology these days.</p><p><blockquote>前国防部长唐纳德·拉姆斯菲尔德说，有已知的已知——人们知道的事情——已知的未知——人们知道他们不知道的事情——和未知的未知——人们没有意识到他们不知道的事情。这几乎概括了当今的自动驾驶技术。</blockquote></p><p> It isn’t clear how long it will take the auto industry to deliver truly self-driving cars. Thursday evening, however, investors will get an education about what’s state of the art when Tesla (ticker: TSLA) hosts its artificial intelligence day.</p><p><blockquote>目前尚不清楚汽车行业需要多长时间才能交付真正的自动驾驶汽车。然而，周四晚上，当特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）举办人工智能日时，投资者将接受有关最先进技术的教育。</blockquote></p><p> The event will likely be livestreamed on the company’s website beginning around 5 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. A link to the webcast isn’t available yet. The company didn’t respond to a request for comment about the agenda for the event.</p><p><blockquote>该活动可能会在下午5点左右开始在公司网站上进行直播。东部标准时间。网络广播的链接尚不可用。该公司没有回应对活动议程置评的请求。</blockquote></p><p> Much of what will get talked about won’t be a surprise, even if investors don’t understand it all. Those are known unknowns.</p><p><blockquote>即使投资者并不完全理解，人们谈论的大部分内容也不会令人惊讶。这些都是已知的未知。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla should update investors about its driver assistance feature dubbed full self driving. What’s more, the company will describe the benefit of vertical integration. Tesla makes the hardware—its own computers with its own microchips—and its software. Tesla might even give a more definitive timeline for when Level 4 autonomous vehicles will be ready.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉应该向投资者通报其被称为全自动驾驶的驾驶员辅助功能的最新情况。更重要的是，该公司将描述垂直整合的好处。特斯拉制造硬件——带有自己微芯片的计算机——和软件。特斯拉甚至可能给出一个更明确的时间表，说明4级自动驾驶汽车何时准备就绪。</blockquote></p><p> Roth Capital analyst&nbsp;Craig Irwin&nbsp;doesn’t believe Level 4 technology is on the horizon though. He tells<i>Barron’s</i>the computing power and camera resolution just isn’t there yet. “Tesla will work hard to suggest tech leadership in AI for automotive,” says Irwin. “Reality will probably be much less exciting than their claims.”</p><p><blockquote>不过，Roth Capital分析师Craig Irwin并不认为4级技术即将出现。他告诉<i>巴伦周刊</i>计算能力和相机分辨率还不存在。“特斯拉将努力展示汽车人工智能领域的技术领先地位，”欧文说。“现实可能远没有他们的说法那么令人兴奋。”</blockquote></p><p> Irwin rates Tesla shares Hold. His price target is just $150 a share.</p><p><blockquote>欧文将特斯拉股票评级为持有。他的目标价仅为每股150美元。</blockquote></p><p> The car industry essentially defines&nbsp;five levels of autonomous driving. Level 1 is nothing more than cruise control. Level 2 systems are available on cars today and combine features such as adaptive cruise and lane-keeping assistance, enabling the car to do a lot on its own. Drivers, however, still need to pay attention 100% of the time with Level 2 systems.</p><p><blockquote>汽车行业基本上定义了五个级别的自动驾驶。1级无非就是定速巡航。2级系统现在可以在汽车上使用，它结合了自适应巡航和车道保持辅助等功能，使汽车能够自己做很多事情。然而，使用2级系统，驾驶员仍然需要100%的时间集中注意力。</blockquote></p><p> Level 3 systems would allow drivers to stop paying attention part of the time. Level 4 would let them stop paying attention most of the time. And Level 5 means the car does everything always. “Level 5 autonomy isn’t an easy endeavor,” says Global X analyst&nbsp;Pedro Palandrani. There are so many unique cases for technology to tackle, like in bad weather or dirt roads. “But level 4 is enough to change the world.” he added. He is more optimistic than Irwin about the timing for Level 4 systems and hopes Tesla provides more timing detail at its event.</p><p><blockquote>3级系统将允许驾驶员在部分时间停止注意力。第四级会让他们在大部分时间里停止注意力。5级意味着汽车总是做所有事情。Global X分析师Pedro Palandrani表示：“5级自治并不是一件容易的事。”技术需要解决许多独特的情况，例如恶劣天气或土路。“但四级足以改变世界。”他补充道。他对4级系统的时间安排比欧文更乐观，并希望特斯拉在活动中提供更多的时间细节。</blockquote></p><p> Beyond a technology run down and level 4 timing, the company might have some surprises up its sleeve for investors. Palandrani has two ideas.</p><p><blockquote>除了技术故障和4级时机之外，该公司可能会给投资者带来一些惊喜。帕兰德拉尼有两个想法。</blockquote></p><p> For starters, Tesla might indicate it’s willing to sell its hardware and software to other car companies. That would give Tesla other unexpected, sources of income. Tesla already offers its full self driving as a monthly subscription to owners of its cars. That’s new for the car industry and opens up a source of recurring revenue for anyone with the requisite technology. Selling hardware and software to other car companies, however, would be new, and surprising, for investors.</p><p><blockquote>首先，特斯拉可能会表示愿意将其硬件和软件出售给其他汽车公司。这将给特斯拉带来其他意想不到的收入来源。特斯拉已经向车主提供全自动驾驶服务，按月订阅。这对于汽车行业来说是新鲜事，并为任何拥有必要技术的人开辟了经常性收入来源。然而，对于投资者来说，向其他汽车公司出售硬件和软件将是新鲜事，也是令人惊讶的。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla might also talk about its advancements in robotics. CEO&nbsp;Elon Musk&nbsp;has talked often in the past about the difficulty of making the machine that makes the machine. Some of Tesla’s AI efforts might also be targeted at building, and not just driving, vehicles. “We’re just making a crazy amount of machinery internally,” said Musk on the company’s second-quarter conference call. “This is….not well understood.”</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉也可能会谈论其在机器人技术方面的进步。首席执行官埃隆·马斯克过去经常谈到制造制造机器的机器的困难。特斯拉的一些人工智能努力也可能针对制造而不仅仅是驾驶车辆。“我们只是在内部制造了数量惊人的机械，”Musk在谈到公司第二季度电话会议时表示。“这……不太明白。”</blockquote></p><p> Those are two items that can surprise. Whether they, or other tidbits, will move the stock is something else entirely.</p><p><blockquote>这两件事可能会令人惊讶。他们或其他花絮是否会影响股票完全是另一回事。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock dropped about 7% over Monday and Tuesday partly because NHTSA disclosed it was&nbsp;looking into accidents&nbsp;involving Tesla’s driver assistance features. Tesla will surely stress the safety benefits of driver assistance features on Thursday, whether it can shake off that bit of bad news though is harder to tell.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价周一和周二下跌约7%，部分原因是NHTSA透露正在调查涉及特斯拉驾驶员辅助功能的事故。特斯拉周四肯定会强调驾驶员辅助功能的安全优势，但它是否能摆脱这一坏消息还很难说。</blockquote></p><p> “Thursday becomes a much more important event in light of this week’s [NHTSA] probe,” says Wedbush analyst&nbsp;Dan Ives. “This week has been another tough week for Tesla [stock] and the Street needs some good news heading into this AI event.”</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush分析师丹·艾夫斯(Dan Ives)表示：“鉴于本周[NHTSA]的调查，周四成为一个更加重要的事件。”“对于特斯拉[股票]来说，本周又是艰难的一周，华尔街需要一些好消息来迎接这场人工智能盛会。”</blockquote></p><p> Ives rates Tesla shares Buy and has a $1,000 price target for the stock. Tesla’s autonomous driving leadership is part of his bullish take on shares.</p><p><blockquote>Ives将特斯拉股票评级为买入，并将该股目标价定为1,000美元。特斯拉在自动驾驶方面的领导地位是他看涨股票的一部分。</blockquote></p><p> If history is any guide investors should expect volatility. Tesla stock dropped 10% the day following its&nbsp;battery technology eventi&nbsp;n September 2020. It took shares about seven trading days to recover, and Tesla stock gained about 86% from the battery event to year-end.</p><p><blockquote>如果以史为鉴，投资者应该预料到波动性。2020年9月电池技术活动后的第二天，特斯拉股价下跌10%。股价花了大约7个交易日才恢复，从电池事件到年底，特斯拉股价上涨了约86%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Tesla stock is down about 6% year to date, trailing behind the 18% and 15% comparable, respective gains of the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;and&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average.Tesla stock hasn’t moved much, in absolute terms, since March. Shares were in the high $600s back then. They closed down 3% at $665.71 on Tuesday, but rose 3.5% at $688.99 on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价今年迄今已下跌约6%，落后于标准普尔500指数和道琼斯工业平均指数分别18%和15%的可比涨幅。自3月份以来，特斯拉股价的绝对值没有太大变动。当时股价高达600美元。周二收盘下跌3%，至665.71美元，但周三上涨3.5%，至688.99美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla AI Day Is Thursday. Why It’s a Big Day for the Stock.<blockquote>特斯拉人工智能日是周四。为什么今天是该股的大日子。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla AI Day Is Thursday. Why It’s a Big Day for the Stock.<blockquote>特斯拉人工智能日是周四。为什么今天是该股的大日子。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-19 08:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Former defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld said there are known knowns—things people know—known unknowns—things people know they don’t know—and unknown unknowns—things people don’t realize they don’t know. That pretty much sums up autonomous driving technology these days.</p><p><blockquote>前国防部长唐纳德·拉姆斯菲尔德说，有已知的已知——人们知道的事情——已知的未知——人们知道他们不知道的事情——和未知的未知——人们没有意识到他们不知道的事情。这几乎概括了当今的自动驾驶技术。</blockquote></p><p> It isn’t clear how long it will take the auto industry to deliver truly self-driving cars. Thursday evening, however, investors will get an education about what’s state of the art when Tesla (ticker: TSLA) hosts its artificial intelligence day.</p><p><blockquote>目前尚不清楚汽车行业需要多长时间才能交付真正的自动驾驶汽车。然而，周四晚上，当特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）举办人工智能日时，投资者将接受有关最先进技术的教育。</blockquote></p><p> The event will likely be livestreamed on the company’s website beginning around 5 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. A link to the webcast isn’t available yet. The company didn’t respond to a request for comment about the agenda for the event.</p><p><blockquote>该活动可能会在下午5点左右开始在公司网站上进行直播。东部标准时间。网络广播的链接尚不可用。该公司没有回应对活动议程置评的请求。</blockquote></p><p> Much of what will get talked about won’t be a surprise, even if investors don’t understand it all. Those are known unknowns.</p><p><blockquote>即使投资者并不完全理解，人们谈论的大部分内容也不会令人惊讶。这些都是已知的未知。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla should update investors about its driver assistance feature dubbed full self driving. What’s more, the company will describe the benefit of vertical integration. Tesla makes the hardware—its own computers with its own microchips—and its software. Tesla might even give a more definitive timeline for when Level 4 autonomous vehicles will be ready.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉应该向投资者通报其被称为全自动驾驶的驾驶员辅助功能的最新情况。更重要的是，该公司将描述垂直整合的好处。特斯拉制造硬件——带有自己微芯片的计算机——和软件。特斯拉甚至可能给出一个更明确的时间表，说明4级自动驾驶汽车何时准备就绪。</blockquote></p><p> Roth Capital analyst&nbsp;Craig Irwin&nbsp;doesn’t believe Level 4 technology is on the horizon though. He tells<i>Barron’s</i>the computing power and camera resolution just isn’t there yet. “Tesla will work hard to suggest tech leadership in AI for automotive,” says Irwin. “Reality will probably be much less exciting than their claims.”</p><p><blockquote>不过，Roth Capital分析师Craig Irwin并不认为4级技术即将出现。他告诉<i>巴伦周刊</i>计算能力和相机分辨率还不存在。“特斯拉将努力展示汽车人工智能领域的技术领先地位，”欧文说。“现实可能远没有他们的说法那么令人兴奋。”</blockquote></p><p> Irwin rates Tesla shares Hold. His price target is just $150 a share.</p><p><blockquote>欧文将特斯拉股票评级为持有。他的目标价仅为每股150美元。</blockquote></p><p> The car industry essentially defines&nbsp;five levels of autonomous driving. Level 1 is nothing more than cruise control. Level 2 systems are available on cars today and combine features such as adaptive cruise and lane-keeping assistance, enabling the car to do a lot on its own. Drivers, however, still need to pay attention 100% of the time with Level 2 systems.</p><p><blockquote>汽车行业基本上定义了五个级别的自动驾驶。1级无非就是定速巡航。2级系统现在可以在汽车上使用，它结合了自适应巡航和车道保持辅助等功能，使汽车能够自己做很多事情。然而，使用2级系统，驾驶员仍然需要100%的时间集中注意力。</blockquote></p><p> Level 3 systems would allow drivers to stop paying attention part of the time. Level 4 would let them stop paying attention most of the time. And Level 5 means the car does everything always. “Level 5 autonomy isn’t an easy endeavor,” says Global X analyst&nbsp;Pedro Palandrani. There are so many unique cases for technology to tackle, like in bad weather or dirt roads. “But level 4 is enough to change the world.” he added. He is more optimistic than Irwin about the timing for Level 4 systems and hopes Tesla provides more timing detail at its event.</p><p><blockquote>3级系统将允许驾驶员在部分时间停止注意力。第四级会让他们在大部分时间里停止注意力。5级意味着汽车总是做所有事情。Global X分析师Pedro Palandrani表示：“5级自治并不是一件容易的事。”技术需要解决许多独特的情况，例如恶劣天气或土路。“但四级足以改变世界。”他补充道。他对4级系统的时间安排比欧文更乐观，并希望特斯拉在活动中提供更多的时间细节。</blockquote></p><p> Beyond a technology run down and level 4 timing, the company might have some surprises up its sleeve for investors. Palandrani has two ideas.</p><p><blockquote>除了技术故障和4级时机之外，该公司可能会给投资者带来一些惊喜。帕兰德拉尼有两个想法。</blockquote></p><p> For starters, Tesla might indicate it’s willing to sell its hardware and software to other car companies. That would give Tesla other unexpected, sources of income. Tesla already offers its full self driving as a monthly subscription to owners of its cars. That’s new for the car industry and opens up a source of recurring revenue for anyone with the requisite technology. Selling hardware and software to other car companies, however, would be new, and surprising, for investors.</p><p><blockquote>首先，特斯拉可能会表示愿意将其硬件和软件出售给其他汽车公司。这将给特斯拉带来其他意想不到的收入来源。特斯拉已经向车主提供全自动驾驶服务，按月订阅。这对于汽车行业来说是新鲜事，并为任何拥有必要技术的人开辟了经常性收入来源。然而，对于投资者来说，向其他汽车公司出售硬件和软件将是新鲜事，也是令人惊讶的。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla might also talk about its advancements in robotics. CEO&nbsp;Elon Musk&nbsp;has talked often in the past about the difficulty of making the machine that makes the machine. Some of Tesla’s AI efforts might also be targeted at building, and not just driving, vehicles. “We’re just making a crazy amount of machinery internally,” said Musk on the company’s second-quarter conference call. “This is….not well understood.”</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉也可能会谈论其在机器人技术方面的进步。首席执行官埃隆·马斯克过去经常谈到制造制造机器的机器的困难。特斯拉的一些人工智能努力也可能针对制造而不仅仅是驾驶车辆。“我们只是在内部制造了数量惊人的机械，”Musk在谈到公司第二季度电话会议时表示。“这……不太明白。”</blockquote></p><p> Those are two items that can surprise. Whether they, or other tidbits, will move the stock is something else entirely.</p><p><blockquote>这两件事可能会令人惊讶。他们或其他花絮是否会影响股票完全是另一回事。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock dropped about 7% over Monday and Tuesday partly because NHTSA disclosed it was&nbsp;looking into accidents&nbsp;involving Tesla’s driver assistance features. Tesla will surely stress the safety benefits of driver assistance features on Thursday, whether it can shake off that bit of bad news though is harder to tell.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价周一和周二下跌约7%，部分原因是NHTSA透露正在调查涉及特斯拉驾驶员辅助功能的事故。特斯拉周四肯定会强调驾驶员辅助功能的安全优势，但它是否能摆脱这一坏消息还很难说。</blockquote></p><p> “Thursday becomes a much more important event in light of this week’s [NHTSA] probe,” says Wedbush analyst&nbsp;Dan Ives. “This week has been another tough week for Tesla [stock] and the Street needs some good news heading into this AI event.”</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush分析师丹·艾夫斯(Dan Ives)表示：“鉴于本周[NHTSA]的调查，周四成为一个更加重要的事件。”“对于特斯拉[股票]来说，本周又是艰难的一周，华尔街需要一些好消息来迎接这场人工智能盛会。”</blockquote></p><p> Ives rates Tesla shares Buy and has a $1,000 price target for the stock. Tesla’s autonomous driving leadership is part of his bullish take on shares.</p><p><blockquote>Ives将特斯拉股票评级为买入，并将该股目标价定为1,000美元。特斯拉在自动驾驶方面的领导地位是他看涨股票的一部分。</blockquote></p><p> If history is any guide investors should expect volatility. Tesla stock dropped 10% the day following its&nbsp;battery technology eventi&nbsp;n September 2020. It took shares about seven trading days to recover, and Tesla stock gained about 86% from the battery event to year-end.</p><p><blockquote>如果以史为鉴，投资者应该预料到波动性。2020年9月电池技术活动后的第二天，特斯拉股价下跌10%。股价花了大约7个交易日才恢复，从电池事件到年底，特斯拉股价上涨了约86%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Tesla stock is down about 6% year to date, trailing behind the 18% and 15% comparable, respective gains of the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;and&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average.Tesla stock hasn’t moved much, in absolute terms, since March. Shares were in the high $600s back then. They closed down 3% at $665.71 on Tuesday, but rose 3.5% at $688.99 on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价今年迄今已下跌约6%，落后于标准普尔500指数和道琼斯工业平均指数分别18%和15%的可比涨幅。自3月份以来，特斯拉股价的绝对值没有太大变动。当时股价高达600美元。周二收盘下跌3%，至665.71美元，但周三上涨3.5%，至688.99美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-ai-day-51629244043?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_1\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-ai-day-51629244043?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181909905","content_text":"Former defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld said there are known knowns—things people know—known unknowns—things people know they don’t know—and unknown unknowns—things people don’t realize they don’t know. That pretty much sums up autonomous driving technology these days.\nIt isn’t clear how long it will take the auto industry to deliver truly self-driving cars. Thursday evening, however, investors will get an education about what’s state of the art when Tesla (ticker: TSLA) hosts its artificial intelligence day.\nThe event will likely be livestreamed on the company’s website beginning around 5 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. A link to the webcast isn’t available yet. The company didn’t respond to a request for comment about the agenda for the event.\nMuch of what will get talked about won’t be a surprise, even if investors don’t understand it all. Those are known unknowns.\nTesla should update investors about its driver assistance feature dubbed full self driving. What’s more, the company will describe the benefit of vertical integration. Tesla makes the hardware—its own computers with its own microchips—and its software. Tesla might even give a more definitive timeline for when Level 4 autonomous vehicles will be ready.\nRoth Capital analyst Craig Irwin doesn’t believe Level 4 technology is on the horizon though. He tellsBarron’sthe computing power and camera resolution just isn’t there yet. “Tesla will work hard to suggest tech leadership in AI for automotive,” says Irwin. “Reality will probably be much less exciting than their claims.”\nIrwin rates Tesla shares Hold. His price target is just $150 a share.\nThe car industry essentially defines five levels of autonomous driving. Level 1 is nothing more than cruise control. Level 2 systems are available on cars today and combine features such as adaptive cruise and lane-keeping assistance, enabling the car to do a lot on its own. Drivers, however, still need to pay attention 100% of the time with Level 2 systems.\nLevel 3 systems would allow drivers to stop paying attention part of the time. Level 4 would let them stop paying attention most of the time. And Level 5 means the car does everything always. “Level 5 autonomy isn’t an easy endeavor,” says Global X analyst Pedro Palandrani. There are so many unique cases for technology to tackle, like in bad weather or dirt roads. “But level 4 is enough to change the world.” he added. He is more optimistic than Irwin about the timing for Level 4 systems and hopes Tesla provides more timing detail at its event.\nBeyond a technology run down and level 4 timing, the company might have some surprises up its sleeve for investors. Palandrani has two ideas.\nFor starters, Tesla might indicate it’s willing to sell its hardware and software to other car companies. That would give Tesla other unexpected, sources of income. Tesla already offers its full self driving as a monthly subscription to owners of its cars. That’s new for the car industry and opens up a source of recurring revenue for anyone with the requisite technology. Selling hardware and software to other car companies, however, would be new, and surprising, for investors.\nTesla might also talk about its advancements in robotics. CEO Elon Musk has talked often in the past about the difficulty of making the machine that makes the machine. Some of Tesla’s AI efforts might also be targeted at building, and not just driving, vehicles. “We’re just making a crazy amount of machinery internally,” said Musk on the company’s second-quarter conference call. “This is….not well understood.”\nThose are two items that can surprise. Whether they, or other tidbits, will move the stock is something else entirely.\nTesla stock dropped about 7% over Monday and Tuesday partly because NHTSA disclosed it was looking into accidents involving Tesla’s driver assistance features. Tesla will surely stress the safety benefits of driver assistance features on Thursday, whether it can shake off that bit of bad news though is harder to tell.\n“Thursday becomes a much more important event in light of this week’s [NHTSA] probe,” says Wedbush analyst Dan Ives. “This week has been another tough week for Tesla [stock] and the Street needs some good news heading into this AI event.”\nIves rates Tesla shares Buy and has a $1,000 price target for the stock. Tesla’s autonomous driving leadership is part of his bullish take on shares.\nIf history is any guide investors should expect volatility. Tesla stock dropped 10% the day following its battery technology eventi n September 2020. It took shares about seven trading days to recover, and Tesla stock gained about 86% from the battery event to year-end.\nTesla stock is down about 6% year to date, trailing behind the 18% and 15% comparable, respective gains of the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average.Tesla stock hasn’t moved much, in absolute terms, since March. Shares were in the high $600s back then. They closed down 3% at $665.71 on Tuesday, but rose 3.5% at $688.99 on Wednesday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1596,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":833510812,"gmtCreate":1629249331436,"gmtModify":1631890499550,"author":{"id":"4091706622349130","authorId":"4091706622349130","name":"Stephenlimmh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36bc849c38db97b89159d04639c780dd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091706622349130","idStr":"4091706622349130"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Is it really worth it to buy Tesla over byd?","listText":"Is it really worth it to buy Tesla over byd?","text":"Is it really worth it to buy Tesla over byd?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/833510812","repostId":"1189114396","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189114396","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629247487,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1189114396?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-18 08:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock Sells off While Institutions Continue to Buy.<blockquote>特斯拉股票遭到抛售，而机构继续买入。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189114396","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Tesla stock has tumbled almost 10% off recent highs but institutions are continuing to buy.\nIn a mar","content":"<p>Tesla stock has tumbled almost 10% off recent highs but institutions are continuing to buy.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价较近期高点下跌近10%，但机构仍在继续买入。</blockquote></p><p> In a market filled with&nbsp;liquidity, the \"buy the dip mentality\" continues to persist. This appears to be true with Tesla stock and institutions.</p><p><blockquote>在流动性充盈的市场中，“逢低买入心态”继续坚持。特斯拉股票和机构似乎也是如此。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Demand for Shares Increases in Q3</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三季度股票需求增加</b></blockquote></p><p> Q3 has been on pace to be the first quarter since Q4 2020 to have an overall&nbsp;net inflow&nbsp;of Tesla stock into institutions—those with at least $100 million under management. Currently, there is a net inflow of $7 billion of Tesla stock into institutions. 13F filings were due August 15th to show any quarter-over-quarter changes in Q2, however, institutions can continue to update positions throughout the third quarter.</p><p><blockquote>第三季度有望成为自2020年第四季度以来特斯拉股票整体净流入机构（管理规模至少为1亿美元的机构）的第一个季度。目前，有70亿美元的特斯拉股票净流入机构。13F文件将于8月15日提交，以显示第二季度的任何环比变化，但是，机构可以在整个第三季度继续更新头寸。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/373bcfeda661a3fdddb1ad430c075270\" tg-width=\"683\" tg-height=\"604\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>via: marketbeat.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>通过：marketbeat.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Of those \"buying the dip\" the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, increased their position&nbsp;617% quarter-over-quarter&nbsp;for a total of&nbsp;330,196 shares. While this accounts for a small position in the&nbsp;under management&nbsp;for CPPIB, others have made Tesla a larger portion of their portfolio. Australia-based Hyperion Asset Management has also increased its Tesla stock position by over 20%. As a result of the additional shares, Tesla stock is now over 15% of Hyperions portfolio demonstrating more conviction than Cathie Wood'sARKKwith a ~10% allocation to Tesla stock.</p><p><blockquote>在那些“逢低买入”的人中，加拿大养老金计划投资委员会的持仓量环比增加了617%，总计330,196股。虽然这只占CPPIB管理的一小部分，但其他人已将特斯拉纳入其投资组合的更大一部分。总部位于澳洲的Hyperion Asset Management也将其特斯拉股票头寸增加了20%以上。由于增发股票，特斯拉股票目前占Hyperions投资组合的15%以上，比Cathie Wood的ARKK更有信心，ARKK约10%分配给特斯拉股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Notable Bear</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一只著名的熊</b></blockquote></p><p> While not a direct seller of shares, Dr. Michael Burry—famed for hisshortposition against subprime mortgage bonds—has announced in Scion Asset Management's&nbsp;13F&nbsp;the purchase of additional Put Options against Tesla. Scion Asset management has held a bearish Put Option against Tesla since Q1 2021. The aforementioned Put Options&nbsp;— representing 35% of Scion's portfolio and a current market value of ~$731 million—&nbsp;are Scion's largest positions.</p><p><blockquote>虽然不是股票的直接卖家，但以做空次级抵押贷款债券而闻名的Michael Burry博士在Scion Asset Management的13 F中宣布购买额外的特斯拉看跌期权。自2021年第一季度以来，Scion Asset management一直持有针对特斯拉的看跌看跌期权。上述看跌期权占Scion投资组合的35%，目前市值约为7.31亿美元，是Scion最大的头寸。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock Sells off While Institutions Continue to Buy.<blockquote>特斯拉股票遭到抛售，而机构继续买入。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock Sells off While Institutions Continue to Buy.<blockquote>特斯拉股票遭到抛售，而机构继续买入。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-18 08:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla stock has tumbled almost 10% off recent highs but institutions are continuing to buy.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价较近期高点下跌近10%，但机构仍在继续买入。</blockquote></p><p> In a market filled with&nbsp;liquidity, the \"buy the dip mentality\" continues to persist. This appears to be true with Tesla stock and institutions.</p><p><blockquote>在流动性充盈的市场中，“逢低买入心态”继续坚持。特斯拉股票和机构似乎也是如此。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Demand for Shares Increases in Q3</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三季度股票需求增加</b></blockquote></p><p> Q3 has been on pace to be the first quarter since Q4 2020 to have an overall&nbsp;net inflow&nbsp;of Tesla stock into institutions—those with at least $100 million under management. Currently, there is a net inflow of $7 billion of Tesla stock into institutions. 13F filings were due August 15th to show any quarter-over-quarter changes in Q2, however, institutions can continue to update positions throughout the third quarter.</p><p><blockquote>第三季度有望成为自2020年第四季度以来特斯拉股票整体净流入机构（管理规模至少为1亿美元的机构）的第一个季度。目前，有70亿美元的特斯拉股票净流入机构。13F文件将于8月15日提交，以显示第二季度的任何环比变化，但是，机构可以在整个第三季度继续更新头寸。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/373bcfeda661a3fdddb1ad430c075270\" tg-width=\"683\" tg-height=\"604\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>via: marketbeat.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>通过：marketbeat.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Of those \"buying the dip\" the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, increased their position&nbsp;617% quarter-over-quarter&nbsp;for a total of&nbsp;330,196 shares. While this accounts for a small position in the&nbsp;under management&nbsp;for CPPIB, others have made Tesla a larger portion of their portfolio. Australia-based Hyperion Asset Management has also increased its Tesla stock position by over 20%. As a result of the additional shares, Tesla stock is now over 15% of Hyperions portfolio demonstrating more conviction than Cathie Wood'sARKKwith a ~10% allocation to Tesla stock.</p><p><blockquote>在那些“逢低买入”的人中，加拿大养老金计划投资委员会的持仓量环比增加了617%，总计330,196股。虽然这只占CPPIB管理的一小部分，但其他人已将特斯拉纳入其投资组合的更大一部分。总部位于澳洲的Hyperion Asset Management也将其特斯拉股票头寸增加了20%以上。由于增发股票，特斯拉股票目前占Hyperions投资组合的15%以上，比Cathie Wood的ARKK更有信心，ARKK约10%分配给特斯拉股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Notable Bear</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一只著名的熊</b></blockquote></p><p> While not a direct seller of shares, Dr. Michael Burry—famed for hisshortposition against subprime mortgage bonds—has announced in Scion Asset Management's&nbsp;13F&nbsp;the purchase of additional Put Options against Tesla. Scion Asset management has held a bearish Put Option against Tesla since Q1 2021. The aforementioned Put Options&nbsp;— representing 35% of Scion's portfolio and a current market value of ~$731 million—&nbsp;are Scion's largest positions.</p><p><blockquote>虽然不是股票的直接卖家，但以做空次级抵押贷款债券而闻名的Michael Burry博士在Scion Asset Management的13 F中宣布购买额外的特斯拉看跌期权。自2021年第一季度以来，Scion Asset management一直持有针对特斯拉的看跌看跌期权。上述看跌期权占Scion投资组合的35%，目前市值约为7.31亿美元，是Scion最大的头寸。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/tesla/news/institutions-continue-to-buy-q3\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/tesla/news/institutions-continue-to-buy-q3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189114396","content_text":"Tesla stock has tumbled almost 10% off recent highs but institutions are continuing to buy.\nIn a market filled with liquidity, the \"buy the dip mentality\" continues to persist. This appears to be true with Tesla stock and institutions.\nDemand for Shares Increases in Q3\nQ3 has been on pace to be the first quarter since Q4 2020 to have an overall net inflow of Tesla stock into institutions—those with at least $100 million under management. Currently, there is a net inflow of $7 billion of Tesla stock into institutions. 13F filings were due August 15th to show any quarter-over-quarter changes in Q2, however, institutions can continue to update positions throughout the third quarter.\nvia: marketbeat.com\nOf those \"buying the dip\" the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, increased their position 617% quarter-over-quarter for a total of 330,196 shares. While this accounts for a small position in the under management for CPPIB, others have made Tesla a larger portion of their portfolio. Australia-based Hyperion Asset Management has also increased its Tesla stock position by over 20%. As a result of the additional shares, Tesla stock is now over 15% of Hyperions portfolio demonstrating more conviction than Cathie Wood'sARKKwith a ~10% allocation to Tesla stock.\nA Notable Bear\nWhile not a direct seller of shares, Dr. Michael Burry—famed for hisshortposition against subprime mortgage bonds—has announced in Scion Asset Management's 13F the purchase of additional Put Options against Tesla. Scion Asset management has held a bearish Put Option against Tesla since Q1 2021. The aforementioned Put Options — representing 35% of Scion's portfolio and a current market value of ~$731 million— are Scion's largest positions.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1550,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839216353,"gmtCreate":1629160800472,"gmtModify":1631890499571,"author":{"id":"4091706622349130","authorId":"4091706622349130","name":"Stephenlimmh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36bc849c38db97b89159d04639c780dd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091706622349130","idStr":"4091706622349130"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839216353","repostId":"2160278866","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1546,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839110444,"gmtCreate":1629126065588,"gmtModify":1631890499580,"author":{"id":"4091706622349130","authorId":"4091706622349130","name":"Stephenlimmh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36bc849c38db97b89159d04639c780dd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091706622349130","idStr":"4091706622349130"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839110444","repostId":"1137961734","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137961734","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1629122094,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137961734?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-16 21:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple shares reached record high at $150.59 in early trading<blockquote>苹果股价早盘触及150.59美元的历史新高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137961734","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(Aug 16)&nbsp;Apple shares reached record high at $150.59 in early trading.","content":"<p>(Aug 16)&nbsp;Apple shares reached record high at $150.59 in early trading.</p><p><blockquote>（8月16日）苹果股价在早盘交易中创下150.59美元的历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2b9a9a385ae4e2c77588a61ab15011b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1868\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple shares reached record high at $150.59 in early trading<blockquote>苹果股价早盘触及150.59美元的历史新高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple shares reached record high at $150.59 in early trading<blockquote>苹果股价早盘触及150.59美元的历史新高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-16 21:54</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Aug 16)&nbsp;Apple shares reached record high at $150.59 in early trading.</p><p><blockquote>（8月16日）苹果股价在早盘交易中创下150.59美元的历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2b9a9a385ae4e2c77588a61ab15011b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1868\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137961734","content_text":"(Aug 16) Apple shares reached record high at $150.59 in early trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2737,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897414875,"gmtCreate":1628956937398,"gmtModify":1631890499595,"author":{"id":"4091706622349130","authorId":"4091706622349130","name":"Stephenlimmh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36bc849c38db97b89159d04639c780dd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091706622349130","idStr":"4091706622349130"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Maybe 0 maybe 1000","listText":"Maybe 0 maybe 1000","text":"Maybe 0 maybe 1000","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/897414875","repostId":"1149823415","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149823415","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628909753,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149823415?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-14 10:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where Will Virgin Galactic Stock Be In 10 Years?<blockquote>10年后维珍银河的股票会在哪里？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149823415","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nVirgin Galactic fell more than 30% post-earnings as the market was disappointed with the \"d","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Virgin Galactic fell more than 30% post-earnings as the market was disappointed with the \"delay\" affecting the launch of its private commercial revenue service.</li>  <li>However, we think the company's \"delay\" is necessary for it to rectify its supply constraints and meet the huge demand that the company is experiencing.</li>  <li>We would also discuss in detail the company's long-term opportunities and threats, and what investors need to monitor moving forward.</li>  <li>Lastly, we present our valuation arguments for long-term investors who are considering adding exposure to Virgin Galactic.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00922c9874a28954c08c613b8dbf378b\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"493\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Nastco/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>由于市场对影响其私人商业收入服务推出的“延迟”感到失望，维珍银河财报后下跌超过30%。</li><li>然而，我们认为该公司的“延迟”对于纠正供应限制并满足该公司正在经历的巨大需求是必要的。</li><li>我们还将详细讨论公司的长期机遇和威胁，以及投资者未来需要监控的内容。</li><li>最后，我们为正在考虑增加维珍银河投资的长期投资者提出了我们的估值论点。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Nastco/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Back in May, when we published our previous article (link to article appendedhere) on Virgin Galactic (SPCE), we clearly highlighted that we think the Street's consensus has been too optimistic about Virgin Galactic's revenue estimates as we thought the projections overstated the market opportunity for suborbital space tourism over the next 10 years to a large extent, based on our research that consulted multiple sources, and we submitted a revised projection.</p><p><blockquote>早在5月份，当我们发表关于维珍银河(SPCE)的上一篇文章（链接到本文所附文章）时，我们明确强调，我们认为华尔街的共识对维珍银河的收入预测过于乐观，因为我们认为这些预测夸大了市场根据我们咨询多个来源的研究，未来10年亚轨道太空旅游的机会在很大程度上，我们提交了修订后的预测。</blockquote></p><p> Since then, the Street has revised its near-term projections downwards as the company recently indicated that they are expecting to commence commercial service only from&nbsp;late Q3'CY22.</p><p><blockquote>此后，华尔街日报下调了近期预测，因为该公司最近表示，他们预计仅从2022年第三季度末开始提供商业服务。</blockquote></p><p> This article will discuss the circumstances leading to Virgin Galactic's \"delayed\" launch, the long-term opportunities, and the competitive threat facing Virgin's leadership quest in suborbital space tourism.</p><p><blockquote>本文将讨论导致维珍银河“延迟”发射的情况、长期机遇以及维珍在亚轨道太空旅游领域寻求领导地位所面临的竞争威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, we would present our valuation argument for long-term investors considering adding exposure to the stock right now.</p><p><blockquote>最后，我们将为目前考虑增加该股投资的长期投资者提出我们的估值论点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revisions to Virgin Galactic's Mean Consensus Estimates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>对维珍银河平均共识估计的修正</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e15e65a740bf4a03405cd6f31e82bfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>May's consensus revenue estimates &amp; Aug's consensus revenue estimates. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>5月份的普遍收入估计和8月份的普遍收入估计。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/149d99203d29b3a3e785096ccc509c57\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Scale of revised estimates (Between May and Aug estimates). Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>修订估计数的规模（5月至8月估计数之间）。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Investors should be able to glean clearly that near-term consensus estimates were revised downwards from May's projections that affected CY21 to CY25. However, we think what's important for investors to note is that the Street revised its estimates meaningfully upwards from CY26 to reflect the strong demand that SPCE highlighted during its recent earnings call, which we think demonstrates the company's confidence in a strong revenue runway for the long term, which we would discuss in detail in the subsequent sections.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该能够清楚地收集到，近期共识预期较5月份影响21年至25年的预测有所下调。然而，我们认为投资者需要注意的是，华尔街从CY26大幅上调了其预期，以反映SPCE在最近的盈利看涨期权中强调的强劲需求，我们认为这表明了该公司对强劲收入跑道的信心长期，我们将在后续章节中详细讨论。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Private Commercial Full Revenue Service is Expected from Q3'CY22</b></p><p><blockquote><b>私人商业全收入服务预计从2022年第三季度开始</b></blockquote></p><p> SPCE has since lost about 33% of its value since its earnings release on Aug 5, which we think is largely attributed to the near term headwinds resulting from its \"delay\" on commercial service launch as a result of proposed critical enhancements to VSS Unity and the mothership VMS Eve to increase their turnaround time between flights and maintenance significantly.</p><p><blockquote>自8月5日发布财报以来，SPCE的价值已下跌约33%，我们认为这主要是由于VSS Unity和VSS Unity拟议的关键增强功能导致其商业服务推出“延迟”而带来的近期阻力。母舰VMS Eve将显着增加飞行和维护之间的周转时间。</blockquote></p><p> As a result of the enhancements that would take place after the completion of Unity 23 revenue-generating flight with the Italian Air Force, the company expects to commence its private commercial full revenue service only from late Q3'CY22, which we think may have taken investors aback as while the market expected full commercial service to begin in 2022, they did not expect it to be as late as Q3.</p><p><blockquote>由于Unity 23与意大利空军的创收飞行完成后将进行的增强，该公司预计仅从2022年第三季度末开始其私人商业全面收入服务，我们认为这可能会让投资者大吃一惊，因为虽然市场预计全面商业服务将于2022年开始，但他们预计不会晚于第三季度。</blockquote></p><p> However, we think the market has once again chosen to focus on the uncertainty resulting from the near-term revenue service delay and ignore the importance of the enhancements that are expected to improve VMS Eve's turnaround time so significantly that Virgin Galactic emphasized:</p><p><blockquote>然而，我们认为市场再次选择关注近期收入服务延迟带来的不确定性，而忽视了预计将显着改善VMS Eve周转时间的增强功能的重要性，以至于维珍银河强调：</blockquote></p><p>   These enhancements  <i>could potentially allow Eve to fly 100 flights between major maintenance inspections</i>. This is up from the current interval of 10 flights between major inspections today. This will be an incredibly important success factor during the early commercial service period while we are in process of manufacturing additional motherships.  In addition, the company also highlighted that with the enhancements, the company is also \"targeting a reduced turnaround flight between Unity flights of 4 to 5 weeks, and that's down from what has at best, been 7 to 8 weeks for VSS Unity.\"</p><p><blockquote>这些增强功能<i>可能允许Eve在主要维护检查之间飞行100次航班</i>这比今天主要检查之间的10个航班间隔有所增加。在早期商业服务期间，当我们正在制造更多母舰时，这将是一个非常重要的成功因素。此外，该公司还强调，通过这些增强功能，该公司还“目标是将Unity航班之间的周转飞行时间减少4至5周，而VSS Unity最多7至8周。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The Street and the market were certainly disappointed with the announcement, as analysts cut near-term forecasts and downgraded ratings, and Morgan Stanley also emphasized: \"During this heavy maintenance period, Virgin Galactic will not be able to conduct any space flights until summer of 2022.\"</p><p><blockquote>华尔街和市场当然对这一消息感到失望，因为分析师下调了近期预测并下调了评级，摩根士丹利还强调：“在这个繁重的维护期间，维珍银河在2022年夏季之前都无法进行任何太空飞行。”</blockquote></p><p> Sure, no flights. We are certainly not concerned, as the company reiterated the significance of these enhancements:</p><p><blockquote>当然，没有航班。我们当然不担心，因为该公司重申了这些增强功能的重要性：</blockquote></p><p>   These are reasonably robust modifications to Eve. But the reason we are taking the additional scope and the additional time for this enhancement period of Eve is because the flight rate that we will derive from Eve following this enhancement period is we plan to build that to effect. It's almost 10x greater between major inspections and what we've been doing now. That will give us an ability to fly Eve much more frequently, and  <i>that's really important to our initial group of future astronauts as well as the people that we're going to be signing up starting today</i>.\"  If investors could clearly glean the language used by the company in the above sentence, the company is clearly doing it because they are expecting such a robust demand for its space flight services that we think may have exceeded what the company had initially planned for. So while the recent launch event with Sir Richard Branson was largely seen as a major PR coup, it certainly allowed the company to measure the response from interested customers, and the company has clearly indicated that they see such robust demand that they needed to open up a priority list as soon as possible as CEO Michael Colglazier articulated:</p><p><blockquote>这些都是对Eve相当稳健的修改。但是，我们为Eve的增强期增加范围和时间的原因是，在此增强期之后，我们将从Eve获得的飞行率是我们计划建立的。在主要检查和我们现在所做的之间，这几乎是10倍。这将使我们能够更频繁地飞行Eve，并且<i>这对我们未来的第一批宇航员以及我们将从今天开始报名的人来说非常重要</i>.“如果投资者能够清楚地收集该公司在上述句子中使用的语言，那么该公司显然这样做是因为他们预计对其太空飞行服务的需求如此强劲，我们认为这可能超出了该公司最初的计划。因此，虽然最近与理查德·布兰森爵士举行的发布会在很大程度上被视为一次重大的公关妙招，但它无疑让该公司能够衡量感兴趣的客户的反应，并且该公司明确表示，他们看到了如此强劲的需求，因此需要开放正如首席执行官迈克尔·科尔格拉齐尔(Michael Colglazier)所阐明的那样，尽快列出优先事项清单：</blockquote></p><p>   Leveraging the substantial demand we have seen to our website, I am pleased to announce that we will soon open a priority list for future space travelers who wish to be next in line. We will reach out first to this list with any available inventory following the conclusion of our spacefarer conversion process. Registration for this list will soon be made available on our website...We have an enormous amount of confidence in the total addressable market that's been kind of shown from the response to [Sir Richard Branson's] Unity 22. So we won't be absorbing all of it, but we do think we can make a major step forward here.  We are not sure what the market and other investors think. Still, the company needs to find a way to cope with the demand from what's obviously a heavily supply-constrained situation. The next best thing they would do in the near term is to make the necessary modifications to VMS Eve and VSS Unity to ensure these highly valued potential customers don't go knocking on the door of Jeff Bezos's Blue Origin (BORGN).</p><p><blockquote>利用我们在网站上看到的巨大需求，我很高兴地宣布，我们将很快为希望成为下一个的未来太空旅行者开放一个优先名单。在我们的太空人转换过程结束后，我们将首先向这个列表提供任何可用的库存。该名单的注册将很快在我们的网站上提供...我们对整个潜在市场充满信心，对[理查德·布兰森爵士]Unity 22的反应就表明了这一点。所以我们不会全部吸收，但我们确实认为我们可以在这里向前迈出一大步。我们不确定市场和其他投资者的想法。尽管如此，该公司仍需要找到一种方法来应对供应明显严重受限的情况下的需求。他们在短期内会做的下一件最好的事情是对VMS Eve和VSS Unity进行必要的修改，以确保这些高价值的潜在客户不会去敲杰夫·贝索斯蓝色起源(BORGN)的门。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Are There Really So Many Customers Who Couldn't Wait to Get On Board VSS Unity?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>真的有那么多迫不及待想上VSS Unity的客户吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Yes, it's pretty incredible to think that the company is expecting so many customers who couldn't wait to get on board. Lisa Rich, the Managing Partner at the venture capital firm Hemisphere Ventures, articulated: \"...I've met so many Virgin [Galactic] ticket&nbsp;holders over the years. And by the way, every one of them has told me that the $250,000 they've spent waiting has paid for itself 10 times over because of the experiences that they have shared over the years.\"</p><p><blockquote>是的，想到该公司期待这么多迫不及待地加入的客户，真是令人难以置信。风险投资公司Hemisphere Ventures的管理合伙人丽莎·里奇(Lisa Rich)明确表示：“……这些年来，我遇到了很多维珍（银河）的持票人。顺便说一句，他们每个人都告诉我，由于他们多年来分享的经历，他们花在等待上的25万美元已经收回了10倍。”</blockquote></p><p> Investors should clearly understand that the community of 600 future astronauts that have committed to Virgin Galactic's flight services formed a tight-knit group over the years as the company emphasized: \"I think one thing that probably [is] not well known outside of the existing future astronaut is one of the secret weapons of Virgin Galactic is our astronaut office. This is a group of people who have brought together these 600 people into a true community.\"</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该清楚地了解，多年来，由600名致力于维珍银河飞行服务的未来宇航员组成的社区形成了一个紧密团结的团体，正如该公司所强调的那样：“我认为在现有的未来宇航员之外可能不为人所知的一件事是维珍银河的秘密武器之一，那就是我们的宇航员办公室。这是一群人，他们将这600人聚集成了一个真正的社区。”</blockquote></p><p> The company emphasized that these customers really value the journey towards realizing the flight experience as these customers consider it a \"life-transitional journey.\" They see so much value in what Virgin Galactic is doing that the company emphasized that their customers consider joining the community that the company brought together is \"[a] top, top of mind [priority] and very powerful.\"</p><p><blockquote>该公司强调，这些客户真正重视实现飞行体验的旅程，因为这些客户认为这是一次“人生过渡之旅”。他们看到了维珍银河所做的事情的巨大价值，以至于该公司强调，他们的客户认为加入该公司汇集的社区是“首要考虑的[优先事项]并且非常强大”。</blockquote></p><p> Importantly, the company also highlighted that they have opened up ticket sales to their 1000-strong \"Spacefarer\" community who has signed up through the company's \"One Small Step\" program, with a price starting from $450K per seat, that's way higher than the $200K to $250K per seat that the initial 600 future astronauts signed up for.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，该公司还强调，他们已经向通过该公司“一小步”计划注册的1000多名“宇航员”社区开放了门票销售，每个座位的价格从45万美元起，远高于最初600名未来宇航员注册的每个座位20万至25万美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Virgin Galactic believes that these future astronauts are going to be the \"sales ambassadors\" for the company because of the experience of the strong and tight-knit astronaut community that the company has painstakingly built up: \"...And so I think you can think about lifetime value in several ways. One of them is as people move through being a future astronaut graduate into the astronaut community, I think they're going to come back, and I think it will just be very natural in how people will share the experience<b><i>.</i></b>And I think them sharing the experience will not only let people say how wonderful it was, but it will also bring normalcy to the concept of human spaceflight. So this group of people as we bring them in, the lifetime value is all-around demand and continuing to increase the total addressable market as they go out there and share what they've done.\"</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河认为，这些未来的宇航员将成为公司的“销售大使”，因为他们拥有该公司煞费苦心建立的强大而紧密的宇航员社区的经验：“……所以我认为你可以从几个方面来思考终身价值。其中之一是当人们从未来的宇航员毕业生进入宇航员社区时，我认为他们会回来，我认为人们分享这些经验是非常自然的<b><i>.</i></b>我认为他们分享这段经历不仅会让人们说这是多么美妙，还会给人类航天的概念带来常态。因此，当我们将这群人引入时，他们的终身价值是全面的需求，并在他们走出去分享他们所做的事情时继续增加总的潜在市场。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Strong Demand Justifies Rapid Scaling Up To Achieve Strong Operating Leverage</b></p><p><blockquote><b>强劲的需求证明快速扩大规模以实现强劲的运营杠杆是合理的</b></blockquote></p><p> Astute investors would clearly have recognized that if the company relied on just the fleet of VSS Unity or VSS Imagine to dominate the market for suborbital space tourism, it would have been largely insufficient.</p><p><blockquote>精明的投资者会清楚地认识到，如果该公司仅依靠VSS Unity或VSS Imagine机队来主导亚轨道太空旅游市场，这在很大程度上是不够的。</blockquote></p><p> Based on the company's guidance and the Street's estimates, working through the company's initial community of 600 future astronauts would take a few years at least without the modifications to VMS Eve.</p><p><blockquote>根据该公司的指导和华尔街的估计，如果不对VMS Eve进行修改，该公司最初的600名未来宇航员社区的工作至少需要几年时间。</blockquote></p><p> The initial cadence (before modifications) for 2022 is a maximum of 10 revenue flights comprising 60 passengers in total. Moving on to 2023, the company could also only fly a maximum of 24 to 36 flights annually, which would allow them to fly a maximum of 144 to 216 astronauts. Thus, it may be at least another 2 years until 2025 before Virgin Galactic could start to work through the order book from the 1000 Spacefarer community, and we think by then, at least some of them would have gone over to Blue Origin. Therefore, the initial cadence really doesn't work, especially with the company preparing to draw up its priority list soon for the interest generated from the Unity 22 PR campaign, and they need to work through the 1,600 future astronauts fast, which in the near term would be solved by Eve's modifications since it allows SPCE to fly 10x more in between major inspections.</p><p><blockquote>2022年的初始节奏（修改前）是最多10个收入航班，总共60名乘客。到2023年，该公司每年最多只能飞行24至36次航班，这将允许他们最多飞行144至216名宇航员。因此，到2025年，维珍银河可能至少还需要2年时间才能开始处理1000名宇航员社区的订单，我们认为到那时，至少其中一些人会去蓝色起源。因此，最初的节奏真的不起作用，特别是该公司准备很快为Unity 22公关活动产生的兴趣制定优先列表，他们需要快速完成1600名未来宇航员的工作，这在短期内将通过Eve的修改来解决，因为它允许SPCE在主要检查之间多飞行10倍。</blockquote></p><p> However, the company still thinks that would still be insufficient to cater to the level of demand that they have been experiencing. As a result, they announced that they would be building their next-gen Delta class vehicles \"that are capable of turning on a 1-week interval.\" This class of ships is expected to form the majority of the company's future capacity over time.</p><p><blockquote>然而，该公司仍然认为这仍然不足以满足他们所经历的需求水平。因此，他们宣布将制造下一代Delta级车辆，“能够每隔一周启动一次”。随着时间的推移，此类船舶预计将构成该公司未来运力的大部分。</blockquote></p><p> Part of the reason that the company needed to raise the&nbsp;$500M equity&nbsp;offering recently is that they are ready to start developing and build the Delta class vehicles that would be highly instrumental towards meeting their long term capacity and cadence, that VSS Unity and VSS Imagine would never be able to meet sufficiently.</p><p><blockquote>该公司最近需要筹集5亿美元股票发行的部分原因是，他们已准备好开始开发和制造Delta级车辆，这将非常有助于满足其长期产能和节奏，VSS Unity和VSS想象永远无法充分满足。</blockquote></p><p> Crucially, the company highlighted that by ramping production and capacity through the Delta class, they would be able to achieve significant operating leverage as Virgin Galactic emphasized: \"...And that's why we're so focused on getting the Delta class with next generation of mothership. That's where we really get efficiency. That's where we get scale. That's where you'll really see the flow-through come because we'll have a fixed cost basis that is easy for us to communicate and easy for us to contribute the trade for efficiency down the road.\"</p><p><blockquote>至关重要的是，该公司强调，通过提高达美级的产量和产能，他们将能够实现显著的运营杠杆，正如维珍银河强调的那样：“...这就是为什么我们如此专注于用下一代母舰获得达美级。这是我们真正获得效率的地方。这是我们获得规模的地方。这是你真正看到流通的地方，因为我们将有一个固定的成本基础，便于我们沟通，也便于我们在未来为效率做出贡献。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Competing Against Blue Origin</b></p><p><blockquote><b>与蓝色起源竞争</b></blockquote></p><p> We think operating leverage will be the name of the game here, and Virgin Galactic clearly recognizes that it would be vital for the company to operate at a sufficient scale justified by its demand drivers to compete strongly against Blue Origin.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为运营杠杆将成为这里的游戏名称，维珍银河清楚地认识到，对于该公司来说，以其需求驱动因素所证明的足够规模运营以与蓝色起源进行强有力的竞争至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> While we don't think Blue Origin's main game is in suborbital space tourism, as Jeff Bezos also highlighted previously that: \"The architecture&nbsp;and the technology we have chosen is complete overkill for a suborbital tourism mission.”</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们不认为蓝色起源的主要游戏是亚轨道太空旅游，但正如杰夫·贝索斯之前也强调的那样：“我们选择的架构和技术对于亚轨道旅游任务来说完全是矫枉过正。”</blockquote></p><p> We think Blue Origin's main market certainly goes beyond suborbital space tourism that Morgan Stanley highlighted that \"Mr. Bezos’ company is seeking business in a space market that will triple in size to more than $1 trillion in annual sales by 2040, assuming rapid technological developments enable routine moon landings, asteroid mining and space tourism.\"</p><p><blockquote>我们认为蓝色起源的主要市场肯定超出了亚轨道太空旅游，摩根士丹利强调，“贝佐斯先生的公司正在太空市场寻求业务，假设技术快速发展，到2040年，太空市场的规模将扩大两倍，年销售额将超过1万亿美元。实现例行登月、小行星采矿和太空旅游。”</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, while Blue Origin focuses on building up its Space colonies' vision over the long term, we think they would most certainly be able to ramp their production quickly and gain significant operating leverage. The key is how those advantages translate to its suborbital space tourism segment in the near term would be key to determine Virgin Galactic's leadership.</p><p><blockquote>因此，虽然蓝色起源专注于建立其太空殖民地的长期愿景，但我们认为他们肯定能够快速提高产量并获得显着的运营杠杆。关键是这些优势如何在短期内转化为其亚轨道太空旅游领域，这将是决定维珍银河领导地位的关键。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One thing is for sure. Both companies expect the price for the suborbital space tourism tickets to come down substantially over time as production scales up and technologies improve. Thus, the key for Virgin Galactic's leadership and survival in this market is to gain operating leverage as quickly as possible to build up those advantages while Blue Origin has its plate full with its various projects across the entire spectrum.</p><p><blockquote>有一件事是肯定的。两家公司预计，随着生产规模的扩大和技术的改进，亚轨道太空旅游门票的价格将随着时间的推移大幅下降。因此，维珍银河在这个市场中的领导地位和生存的关键是尽快获得运营杠杆以建立这些优势，而蓝色起源则忙于其整个领域的各种项目。</blockquote></p><p> Virgin Galactic wants to make suborbital space tourism much more accessible, and the key to achieving that is to drive prices down through operating leverage achieved by ramping up production. As a result, we think the company's Delta class plans are highly pivotal to Virgin Galactic's leadership against Blue Origin and highly encourage investors to keep their eyes closely focused on these plans.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河希望让亚轨道太空旅游变得更加容易，而实现这一目标的关键是通过提高产量实现的运营杠杆来降低价格。因此，我们认为该公司的达美级计划对于维珍银河对抗蓝色起源的领导地位至关重要，并强烈鼓励投资者密切关注这些计划。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Free Cash Flow Forecast &amp; Valuations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>自由现金流预测和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48be5e8da375fdc72591e31b96a223f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>EBITDA margin forecast &amp; CapEx margin forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EBITDA利润率预测和资本支出利润率预测。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57509b52b1c0ac46a44e7a0dd619bd97\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>EV / Fwd EBITDA trend. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV/Fwd EBITDA趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Despite the delay in launching full revenue service to Q3'22, the Street's estimates expect the company to be FCF profitable from the end of FY24. We think that's important as it demonstrates the long-term cash flow potential for the company's business in this market, where only BORGN and SPCE are the clear leaders right now.</p><p><blockquote>尽管全面收入服务的推出推迟到22年第三季度，但华尔街预计该公司将从2024财年末开始实现自由现金流盈利。我们认为这很重要，因为它展示了公司业务在这个市场的长期现金流潜力，目前只有BORGN和SPCE是明显的领导者。</blockquote></p><p> However, the valuations still look expensive at 18.5x by the end of 2030, 36% above its aerospace and defense peers comp set mean of 13.61x.</p><p><blockquote>然而，到2030年底，估值看起来仍然昂贵，为18.5倍，比航空航天和国防同行13.61倍的平均水平高出36%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1084f3186f9732fad8d28b824c65de2a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"472\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Street's mean price target. Source: TIKR</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Street的平均目标价。来源：TIKR</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The Street is also not too optimistic, as the mean target price of $35.55 is a mere 13.5% above the last closing price, as analysts focused on SPCE's near term \"headwind\" of moving its revenue service to Q3'CY22, which we think is highly important to its long term competitive advantage.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街也不太乐观，平均目标价为35.55美元，仅比上一收盘价高出13.5%，因为分析师关注SPCE将其收入服务转移到2022年第三季度的近期“阻力”，我们认为这对其长期竞争优势非常重要。</blockquote></p><p> While we are really excited about the company's long-term prospects, as well as its ambition to bring suborbital space tourism to the world, we are not so sure about Virgin Galactic's expensively-looking valuation.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们对该公司的长期前景以及将亚轨道太空旅游带给世界的雄心感到非常兴奋，但我们对维珍银河看似昂贵的估值并不那么确定。</blockquote></p><p> <b>SPCE Stock Price Action and Trend Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>SPCE股价走势及趋势分析</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f872b3e8670eac6d5ca4d8afce15200\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While we don't think SPCE would be a suitable stock for long-term investors given its expensive valuation, we think position traders may still find an opportunity lurking around the horizon with this stock.</p><p><blockquote>虽然鉴于SPCE的估值昂贵，我们认为SPCE不适合长期投资者，但我们认为头寸交易者仍可能发现该股潜伏的机会。</blockquote></p><p> SPCE is strongly supported along its 50-week moving average dynamic support level that has held strongly since 2020, including the recent false break to the downside (bear trap) it saw in May. Therefore, position traders keen to trade this stock may find an opportunity once the price action resolves itself in the next couple of weeks, we hope.</p><p><blockquote>SPCE在50周移动平均线动态支撑位上受到强有力的支撑，该支撑位自2020年以来一直保持强劲，包括最近5月份出现的下行错误突破（熊市陷阱）。因此，我们希望，一旦价格走势在未来几周内自行解决，热衷于交易该股票的头寸交易者可能会找到机会。</blockquote></p><p> In summary, we assign a neutral rating to SPCE for long-term investors.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，我们为长期投资者给予SPCE中性评级。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Will Virgin Galactic Stock Be In 10 Years?<blockquote>10年后维珍银河的股票会在哪里？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Will Virgin Galactic Stock Be In 10 Years?<blockquote>10年后维珍银河的股票会在哪里？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-14 10:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Virgin Galactic fell more than 30% post-earnings as the market was disappointed with the \"delay\" affecting the launch of its private commercial revenue service.</li>  <li>However, we think the company's \"delay\" is necessary for it to rectify its supply constraints and meet the huge demand that the company is experiencing.</li>  <li>We would also discuss in detail the company's long-term opportunities and threats, and what investors need to monitor moving forward.</li>  <li>Lastly, we present our valuation arguments for long-term investors who are considering adding exposure to Virgin Galactic.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00922c9874a28954c08c613b8dbf378b\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"493\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Nastco/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>由于市场对影响其私人商业收入服务推出的“延迟”感到失望，维珍银河财报后下跌超过30%。</li><li>然而，我们认为该公司的“延迟”对于纠正供应限制并满足该公司正在经历的巨大需求是必要的。</li><li>我们还将详细讨论公司的长期机遇和威胁，以及投资者未来需要监控的内容。</li><li>最后，我们为正在考虑增加维珍银河投资的长期投资者提出了我们的估值论点。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Nastco/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Back in May, when we published our previous article (link to article appendedhere) on Virgin Galactic (SPCE), we clearly highlighted that we think the Street's consensus has been too optimistic about Virgin Galactic's revenue estimates as we thought the projections overstated the market opportunity for suborbital space tourism over the next 10 years to a large extent, based on our research that consulted multiple sources, and we submitted a revised projection.</p><p><blockquote>早在5月份，当我们发表关于维珍银河(SPCE)的上一篇文章（链接到本文所附文章）时，我们明确强调，我们认为华尔街的共识对维珍银河的收入预测过于乐观，因为我们认为这些预测夸大了市场根据我们咨询多个来源的研究，未来10年亚轨道太空旅游的机会在很大程度上，我们提交了修订后的预测。</blockquote></p><p> Since then, the Street has revised its near-term projections downwards as the company recently indicated that they are expecting to commence commercial service only from&nbsp;late Q3'CY22.</p><p><blockquote>此后，华尔街日报下调了近期预测，因为该公司最近表示，他们预计仅从2022年第三季度末开始提供商业服务。</blockquote></p><p> This article will discuss the circumstances leading to Virgin Galactic's \"delayed\" launch, the long-term opportunities, and the competitive threat facing Virgin's leadership quest in suborbital space tourism.</p><p><blockquote>本文将讨论导致维珍银河“延迟”发射的情况、长期机遇以及维珍在亚轨道太空旅游领域寻求领导地位所面临的竞争威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, we would present our valuation argument for long-term investors considering adding exposure to the stock right now.</p><p><blockquote>最后，我们将为目前考虑增加该股投资的长期投资者提出我们的估值论点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revisions to Virgin Galactic's Mean Consensus Estimates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>对维珍银河平均共识估计的修正</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e15e65a740bf4a03405cd6f31e82bfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>May's consensus revenue estimates &amp; Aug's consensus revenue estimates. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>5月份的普遍收入估计和8月份的普遍收入估计。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/149d99203d29b3a3e785096ccc509c57\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Scale of revised estimates (Between May and Aug estimates). Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>修订估计数的规模（5月至8月估计数之间）。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Investors should be able to glean clearly that near-term consensus estimates were revised downwards from May's projections that affected CY21 to CY25. However, we think what's important for investors to note is that the Street revised its estimates meaningfully upwards from CY26 to reflect the strong demand that SPCE highlighted during its recent earnings call, which we think demonstrates the company's confidence in a strong revenue runway for the long term, which we would discuss in detail in the subsequent sections.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该能够清楚地收集到，近期共识预期较5月份影响21年至25年的预测有所下调。然而，我们认为投资者需要注意的是，华尔街从CY26大幅上调了其预期，以反映SPCE在最近的盈利看涨期权中强调的强劲需求，我们认为这表明了该公司对强劲收入跑道的信心长期，我们将在后续章节中详细讨论。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Private Commercial Full Revenue Service is Expected from Q3'CY22</b></p><p><blockquote><b>私人商业全收入服务预计从2022年第三季度开始</b></blockquote></p><p> SPCE has since lost about 33% of its value since its earnings release on Aug 5, which we think is largely attributed to the near term headwinds resulting from its \"delay\" on commercial service launch as a result of proposed critical enhancements to VSS Unity and the mothership VMS Eve to increase their turnaround time between flights and maintenance significantly.</p><p><blockquote>自8月5日发布财报以来，SPCE的价值已下跌约33%，我们认为这主要是由于VSS Unity和VSS Unity拟议的关键增强功能导致其商业服务推出“延迟”而带来的近期阻力。母舰VMS Eve将显着增加飞行和维护之间的周转时间。</blockquote></p><p> As a result of the enhancements that would take place after the completion of Unity 23 revenue-generating flight with the Italian Air Force, the company expects to commence its private commercial full revenue service only from late Q3'CY22, which we think may have taken investors aback as while the market expected full commercial service to begin in 2022, they did not expect it to be as late as Q3.</p><p><blockquote>由于Unity 23与意大利空军的创收飞行完成后将进行的增强，该公司预计仅从2022年第三季度末开始其私人商业全面收入服务，我们认为这可能会让投资者大吃一惊，因为虽然市场预计全面商业服务将于2022年开始，但他们预计不会晚于第三季度。</blockquote></p><p> However, we think the market has once again chosen to focus on the uncertainty resulting from the near-term revenue service delay and ignore the importance of the enhancements that are expected to improve VMS Eve's turnaround time so significantly that Virgin Galactic emphasized:</p><p><blockquote>然而，我们认为市场再次选择关注近期收入服务延迟带来的不确定性，而忽视了预计将显着改善VMS Eve周转时间的增强功能的重要性，以至于维珍银河强调：</blockquote></p><p>   These enhancements  <i>could potentially allow Eve to fly 100 flights between major maintenance inspections</i>. This is up from the current interval of 10 flights between major inspections today. This will be an incredibly important success factor during the early commercial service period while we are in process of manufacturing additional motherships.  In addition, the company also highlighted that with the enhancements, the company is also \"targeting a reduced turnaround flight between Unity flights of 4 to 5 weeks, and that's down from what has at best, been 7 to 8 weeks for VSS Unity.\"</p><p><blockquote>这些增强功能<i>可能允许Eve在主要维护检查之间飞行100次航班</i>这比今天主要检查之间的10个航班间隔有所增加。在早期商业服务期间，当我们正在制造更多母舰时，这将是一个非常重要的成功因素。此外，该公司还强调，通过这些增强功能，该公司还“目标是将Unity航班之间的周转飞行时间减少4至5周，而VSS Unity最多7至8周。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The Street and the market were certainly disappointed with the announcement, as analysts cut near-term forecasts and downgraded ratings, and Morgan Stanley also emphasized: \"During this heavy maintenance period, Virgin Galactic will not be able to conduct any space flights until summer of 2022.\"</p><p><blockquote>华尔街和市场当然对这一消息感到失望，因为分析师下调了近期预测并下调了评级，摩根士丹利还强调：“在这个繁重的维护期间，维珍银河在2022年夏季之前都无法进行任何太空飞行。”</blockquote></p><p> Sure, no flights. We are certainly not concerned, as the company reiterated the significance of these enhancements:</p><p><blockquote>当然，没有航班。我们当然不担心，因为该公司重申了这些增强功能的重要性：</blockquote></p><p>   These are reasonably robust modifications to Eve. But the reason we are taking the additional scope and the additional time for this enhancement period of Eve is because the flight rate that we will derive from Eve following this enhancement period is we plan to build that to effect. It's almost 10x greater between major inspections and what we've been doing now. That will give us an ability to fly Eve much more frequently, and  <i>that's really important to our initial group of future astronauts as well as the people that we're going to be signing up starting today</i>.\"  If investors could clearly glean the language used by the company in the above sentence, the company is clearly doing it because they are expecting such a robust demand for its space flight services that we think may have exceeded what the company had initially planned for. So while the recent launch event with Sir Richard Branson was largely seen as a major PR coup, it certainly allowed the company to measure the response from interested customers, and the company has clearly indicated that they see such robust demand that they needed to open up a priority list as soon as possible as CEO Michael Colglazier articulated:</p><p><blockquote>这些都是对Eve相当稳健的修改。但是，我们为Eve的增强期增加范围和时间的原因是，在此增强期之后，我们将从Eve获得的飞行率是我们计划建立的。在主要检查和我们现在所做的之间，这几乎是10倍。这将使我们能够更频繁地飞行Eve，并且<i>这对我们未来的第一批宇航员以及我们将从今天开始报名的人来说非常重要</i>.“如果投资者能够清楚地收集该公司在上述句子中使用的语言，那么该公司显然这样做是因为他们预计对其太空飞行服务的需求如此强劲，我们认为这可能超出了该公司最初的计划。因此，虽然最近与理查德·布兰森爵士举行的发布会在很大程度上被视为一次重大的公关妙招，但它无疑让该公司能够衡量感兴趣的客户的反应，并且该公司明确表示，他们看到了如此强劲的需求，因此需要开放正如首席执行官迈克尔·科尔格拉齐尔(Michael Colglazier)所阐明的那样，尽快列出优先事项清单：</blockquote></p><p>   Leveraging the substantial demand we have seen to our website, I am pleased to announce that we will soon open a priority list for future space travelers who wish to be next in line. We will reach out first to this list with any available inventory following the conclusion of our spacefarer conversion process. Registration for this list will soon be made available on our website...We have an enormous amount of confidence in the total addressable market that's been kind of shown from the response to [Sir Richard Branson's] Unity 22. So we won't be absorbing all of it, but we do think we can make a major step forward here.  We are not sure what the market and other investors think. Still, the company needs to find a way to cope with the demand from what's obviously a heavily supply-constrained situation. The next best thing they would do in the near term is to make the necessary modifications to VMS Eve and VSS Unity to ensure these highly valued potential customers don't go knocking on the door of Jeff Bezos's Blue Origin (BORGN).</p><p><blockquote>利用我们在网站上看到的巨大需求，我很高兴地宣布，我们将很快为希望成为下一个的未来太空旅行者开放一个优先名单。在我们的太空人转换过程结束后，我们将首先向这个列表提供任何可用的库存。该名单的注册将很快在我们的网站上提供...我们对整个潜在市场充满信心，对[理查德·布兰森爵士]Unity 22的反应就表明了这一点。所以我们不会全部吸收，但我们确实认为我们可以在这里向前迈出一大步。我们不确定市场和其他投资者的想法。尽管如此，该公司仍需要找到一种方法来应对供应明显严重受限的情况下的需求。他们在短期内会做的下一件最好的事情是对VMS Eve和VSS Unity进行必要的修改，以确保这些高价值的潜在客户不会去敲杰夫·贝索斯蓝色起源(BORGN)的门。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Are There Really So Many Customers Who Couldn't Wait to Get On Board VSS Unity?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>真的有那么多迫不及待想上VSS Unity的客户吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Yes, it's pretty incredible to think that the company is expecting so many customers who couldn't wait to get on board. Lisa Rich, the Managing Partner at the venture capital firm Hemisphere Ventures, articulated: \"...I've met so many Virgin [Galactic] ticket&nbsp;holders over the years. And by the way, every one of them has told me that the $250,000 they've spent waiting has paid for itself 10 times over because of the experiences that they have shared over the years.\"</p><p><blockquote>是的，想到该公司期待这么多迫不及待地加入的客户，真是令人难以置信。风险投资公司Hemisphere Ventures的管理合伙人丽莎·里奇(Lisa Rich)明确表示：“……这些年来，我遇到了很多维珍（银河）的持票人。顺便说一句，他们每个人都告诉我，由于他们多年来分享的经历，他们花在等待上的25万美元已经收回了10倍。”</blockquote></p><p> Investors should clearly understand that the community of 600 future astronauts that have committed to Virgin Galactic's flight services formed a tight-knit group over the years as the company emphasized: \"I think one thing that probably [is] not well known outside of the existing future astronaut is one of the secret weapons of Virgin Galactic is our astronaut office. This is a group of people who have brought together these 600 people into a true community.\"</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该清楚地了解，多年来，由600名致力于维珍银河飞行服务的未来宇航员组成的社区形成了一个紧密团结的团体，正如该公司所强调的那样：“我认为在现有的未来宇航员之外可能不为人所知的一件事是维珍银河的秘密武器之一，那就是我们的宇航员办公室。这是一群人，他们将这600人聚集成了一个真正的社区。”</blockquote></p><p> The company emphasized that these customers really value the journey towards realizing the flight experience as these customers consider it a \"life-transitional journey.\" They see so much value in what Virgin Galactic is doing that the company emphasized that their customers consider joining the community that the company brought together is \"[a] top, top of mind [priority] and very powerful.\"</p><p><blockquote>该公司强调，这些客户真正重视实现飞行体验的旅程，因为这些客户认为这是一次“人生过渡之旅”。他们看到了维珍银河所做的事情的巨大价值，以至于该公司强调，他们的客户认为加入该公司汇集的社区是“首要考虑的[优先事项]并且非常强大”。</blockquote></p><p> Importantly, the company also highlighted that they have opened up ticket sales to their 1000-strong \"Spacefarer\" community who has signed up through the company's \"One Small Step\" program, with a price starting from $450K per seat, that's way higher than the $200K to $250K per seat that the initial 600 future astronauts signed up for.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，该公司还强调，他们已经向通过该公司“一小步”计划注册的1000多名“宇航员”社区开放了门票销售，每个座位的价格从45万美元起，远高于最初600名未来宇航员注册的每个座位20万至25万美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Virgin Galactic believes that these future astronauts are going to be the \"sales ambassadors\" for the company because of the experience of the strong and tight-knit astronaut community that the company has painstakingly built up: \"...And so I think you can think about lifetime value in several ways. One of them is as people move through being a future astronaut graduate into the astronaut community, I think they're going to come back, and I think it will just be very natural in how people will share the experience<b><i>.</i></b>And I think them sharing the experience will not only let people say how wonderful it was, but it will also bring normalcy to the concept of human spaceflight. So this group of people as we bring them in, the lifetime value is all-around demand and continuing to increase the total addressable market as they go out there and share what they've done.\"</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河认为，这些未来的宇航员将成为公司的“销售大使”，因为他们拥有该公司煞费苦心建立的强大而紧密的宇航员社区的经验：“……所以我认为你可以从几个方面来思考终身价值。其中之一是当人们从未来的宇航员毕业生进入宇航员社区时，我认为他们会回来，我认为人们分享这些经验是非常自然的<b><i>.</i></b>我认为他们分享这段经历不仅会让人们说这是多么美妙，还会给人类航天的概念带来常态。因此，当我们将这群人引入时，他们的终身价值是全面的需求，并在他们走出去分享他们所做的事情时继续增加总的潜在市场。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Strong Demand Justifies Rapid Scaling Up To Achieve Strong Operating Leverage</b></p><p><blockquote><b>强劲的需求证明快速扩大规模以实现强劲的运营杠杆是合理的</b></blockquote></p><p> Astute investors would clearly have recognized that if the company relied on just the fleet of VSS Unity or VSS Imagine to dominate the market for suborbital space tourism, it would have been largely insufficient.</p><p><blockquote>精明的投资者会清楚地认识到，如果该公司仅依靠VSS Unity或VSS Imagine机队来主导亚轨道太空旅游市场，这在很大程度上是不够的。</blockquote></p><p> Based on the company's guidance and the Street's estimates, working through the company's initial community of 600 future astronauts would take a few years at least without the modifications to VMS Eve.</p><p><blockquote>根据该公司的指导和华尔街的估计，如果不对VMS Eve进行修改，该公司最初的600名未来宇航员社区的工作至少需要几年时间。</blockquote></p><p> The initial cadence (before modifications) for 2022 is a maximum of 10 revenue flights comprising 60 passengers in total. Moving on to 2023, the company could also only fly a maximum of 24 to 36 flights annually, which would allow them to fly a maximum of 144 to 216 astronauts. Thus, it may be at least another 2 years until 2025 before Virgin Galactic could start to work through the order book from the 1000 Spacefarer community, and we think by then, at least some of them would have gone over to Blue Origin. Therefore, the initial cadence really doesn't work, especially with the company preparing to draw up its priority list soon for the interest generated from the Unity 22 PR campaign, and they need to work through the 1,600 future astronauts fast, which in the near term would be solved by Eve's modifications since it allows SPCE to fly 10x more in between major inspections.</p><p><blockquote>2022年的初始节奏（修改前）是最多10个收入航班，总共60名乘客。到2023年，该公司每年最多只能飞行24至36次航班，这将允许他们最多飞行144至216名宇航员。因此，到2025年，维珍银河可能至少还需要2年时间才能开始处理1000名宇航员社区的订单，我们认为到那时，至少其中一些人会去蓝色起源。因此，最初的节奏真的不起作用，特别是该公司准备很快为Unity 22公关活动产生的兴趣制定优先列表，他们需要快速完成1600名未来宇航员的工作，这在短期内将通过Eve的修改来解决，因为它允许SPCE在主要检查之间多飞行10倍。</blockquote></p><p> However, the company still thinks that would still be insufficient to cater to the level of demand that they have been experiencing. As a result, they announced that they would be building their next-gen Delta class vehicles \"that are capable of turning on a 1-week interval.\" This class of ships is expected to form the majority of the company's future capacity over time.</p><p><blockquote>然而，该公司仍然认为这仍然不足以满足他们所经历的需求水平。因此，他们宣布将制造下一代Delta级车辆，“能够每隔一周启动一次”。随着时间的推移，此类船舶预计将构成该公司未来运力的大部分。</blockquote></p><p> Part of the reason that the company needed to raise the&nbsp;$500M equity&nbsp;offering recently is that they are ready to start developing and build the Delta class vehicles that would be highly instrumental towards meeting their long term capacity and cadence, that VSS Unity and VSS Imagine would never be able to meet sufficiently.</p><p><blockquote>该公司最近需要筹集5亿美元股票发行的部分原因是，他们已准备好开始开发和制造Delta级车辆，这将非常有助于满足其长期产能和节奏，VSS Unity和VSS想象永远无法充分满足。</blockquote></p><p> Crucially, the company highlighted that by ramping production and capacity through the Delta class, they would be able to achieve significant operating leverage as Virgin Galactic emphasized: \"...And that's why we're so focused on getting the Delta class with next generation of mothership. That's where we really get efficiency. That's where we get scale. That's where you'll really see the flow-through come because we'll have a fixed cost basis that is easy for us to communicate and easy for us to contribute the trade for efficiency down the road.\"</p><p><blockquote>至关重要的是，该公司强调，通过提高达美级的产量和产能，他们将能够实现显著的运营杠杆，正如维珍银河强调的那样：“...这就是为什么我们如此专注于用下一代母舰获得达美级。这是我们真正获得效率的地方。这是我们获得规模的地方。这是你真正看到流通的地方，因为我们将有一个固定的成本基础，便于我们沟通，也便于我们在未来为效率做出贡献。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Competing Against Blue Origin</b></p><p><blockquote><b>与蓝色起源竞争</b></blockquote></p><p> We think operating leverage will be the name of the game here, and Virgin Galactic clearly recognizes that it would be vital for the company to operate at a sufficient scale justified by its demand drivers to compete strongly against Blue Origin.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为运营杠杆将成为这里的游戏名称，维珍银河清楚地认识到，对于该公司来说，以其需求驱动因素所证明的足够规模运营以与蓝色起源进行强有力的竞争至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> While we don't think Blue Origin's main game is in suborbital space tourism, as Jeff Bezos also highlighted previously that: \"The architecture&nbsp;and the technology we have chosen is complete overkill for a suborbital tourism mission.”</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们不认为蓝色起源的主要游戏是亚轨道太空旅游，但正如杰夫·贝索斯之前也强调的那样：“我们选择的架构和技术对于亚轨道旅游任务来说完全是矫枉过正。”</blockquote></p><p> We think Blue Origin's main market certainly goes beyond suborbital space tourism that Morgan Stanley highlighted that \"Mr. Bezos’ company is seeking business in a space market that will triple in size to more than $1 trillion in annual sales by 2040, assuming rapid technological developments enable routine moon landings, asteroid mining and space tourism.\"</p><p><blockquote>我们认为蓝色起源的主要市场肯定超出了亚轨道太空旅游，摩根士丹利强调，“贝佐斯先生的公司正在太空市场寻求业务，假设技术快速发展，到2040年，太空市场的规模将扩大两倍，年销售额将超过1万亿美元。实现例行登月、小行星采矿和太空旅游。”</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, while Blue Origin focuses on building up its Space colonies' vision over the long term, we think they would most certainly be able to ramp their production quickly and gain significant operating leverage. The key is how those advantages translate to its suborbital space tourism segment in the near term would be key to determine Virgin Galactic's leadership.</p><p><blockquote>因此，虽然蓝色起源专注于建立其太空殖民地的长期愿景，但我们认为他们肯定能够快速提高产量并获得显着的运营杠杆。关键是这些优势如何在短期内转化为其亚轨道太空旅游领域，这将是决定维珍银河领导地位的关键。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One thing is for sure. Both companies expect the price for the suborbital space tourism tickets to come down substantially over time as production scales up and technologies improve. Thus, the key for Virgin Galactic's leadership and survival in this market is to gain operating leverage as quickly as possible to build up those advantages while Blue Origin has its plate full with its various projects across the entire spectrum.</p><p><blockquote>有一件事是肯定的。两家公司预计，随着生产规模的扩大和技术的改进，亚轨道太空旅游门票的价格将随着时间的推移大幅下降。因此，维珍银河在这个市场中的领导地位和生存的关键是尽快获得运营杠杆以建立这些优势，而蓝色起源则忙于其整个领域的各种项目。</blockquote></p><p> Virgin Galactic wants to make suborbital space tourism much more accessible, and the key to achieving that is to drive prices down through operating leverage achieved by ramping up production. As a result, we think the company's Delta class plans are highly pivotal to Virgin Galactic's leadership against Blue Origin and highly encourage investors to keep their eyes closely focused on these plans.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河希望让亚轨道太空旅游变得更加容易，而实现这一目标的关键是通过提高产量实现的运营杠杆来降低价格。因此，我们认为该公司的达美级计划对于维珍银河对抗蓝色起源的领导地位至关重要，并强烈鼓励投资者密切关注这些计划。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Free Cash Flow Forecast &amp; Valuations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>自由现金流预测和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48be5e8da375fdc72591e31b96a223f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>EBITDA margin forecast &amp; CapEx margin forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EBITDA利润率预测和资本支出利润率预测。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57509b52b1c0ac46a44e7a0dd619bd97\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>EV / Fwd EBITDA trend. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV/Fwd EBITDA趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Despite the delay in launching full revenue service to Q3'22, the Street's estimates expect the company to be FCF profitable from the end of FY24. We think that's important as it demonstrates the long-term cash flow potential for the company's business in this market, where only BORGN and SPCE are the clear leaders right now.</p><p><blockquote>尽管全面收入服务的推出推迟到22年第三季度，但华尔街预计该公司将从2024财年末开始实现自由现金流盈利。我们认为这很重要，因为它展示了公司业务在这个市场的长期现金流潜力，目前只有BORGN和SPCE是明显的领导者。</blockquote></p><p> However, the valuations still look expensive at 18.5x by the end of 2030, 36% above its aerospace and defense peers comp set mean of 13.61x.</p><p><blockquote>然而，到2030年底，估值看起来仍然昂贵，为18.5倍，比航空航天和国防同行13.61倍的平均水平高出36%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1084f3186f9732fad8d28b824c65de2a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"472\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Street's mean price target. Source: TIKR</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Street的平均目标价。来源：TIKR</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The Street is also not too optimistic, as the mean target price of $35.55 is a mere 13.5% above the last closing price, as analysts focused on SPCE's near term \"headwind\" of moving its revenue service to Q3'CY22, which we think is highly important to its long term competitive advantage.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街也不太乐观，平均目标价为35.55美元，仅比上一收盘价高出13.5%，因为分析师关注SPCE将其收入服务转移到2022年第三季度的近期“阻力”，我们认为这对其长期竞争优势非常重要。</blockquote></p><p> While we are really excited about the company's long-term prospects, as well as its ambition to bring suborbital space tourism to the world, we are not so sure about Virgin Galactic's expensively-looking valuation.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们对该公司的长期前景以及将亚轨道太空旅游带给世界的雄心感到非常兴奋，但我们对维珍银河看似昂贵的估值并不那么确定。</blockquote></p><p> <b>SPCE Stock Price Action and Trend Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>SPCE股价走势及趋势分析</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f872b3e8670eac6d5ca4d8afce15200\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While we don't think SPCE would be a suitable stock for long-term investors given its expensive valuation, we think position traders may still find an opportunity lurking around the horizon with this stock.</p><p><blockquote>虽然鉴于SPCE的估值昂贵，我们认为SPCE不适合长期投资者，但我们认为头寸交易者仍可能发现该股潜伏的机会。</blockquote></p><p> SPCE is strongly supported along its 50-week moving average dynamic support level that has held strongly since 2020, including the recent false break to the downside (bear trap) it saw in May. Therefore, position traders keen to trade this stock may find an opportunity once the price action resolves itself in the next couple of weeks, we hope.</p><p><blockquote>SPCE在50周移动平均线动态支撑位上受到强有力的支撑，该支撑位自2020年以来一直保持强劲，包括最近5月份出现的下行错误突破（熊市陷阱）。因此，我们希望，一旦价格走势在未来几周内自行解决，热衷于交易该股票的头寸交易者可能会找到机会。</blockquote></p><p> In summary, we assign a neutral rating to SPCE for long-term investors.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，我们为长期投资者给予SPCE中性评级。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449270-virgin-galactic-stock-10-years\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPCE":"维珍银河"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449270-virgin-galactic-stock-10-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149823415","content_text":"Summary\n\nVirgin Galactic fell more than 30% post-earnings as the market was disappointed with the \"delay\" affecting the launch of its private commercial revenue service.\nHowever, we think the company's \"delay\" is necessary for it to rectify its supply constraints and meet the huge demand that the company is experiencing.\nWe would also discuss in detail the company's long-term opportunities and threats, and what investors need to monitor moving forward.\nLastly, we present our valuation arguments for long-term investors who are considering adding exposure to Virgin Galactic.\n\nNastco/iStock via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nBack in May, when we published our previous article (link to article appendedhere) on Virgin Galactic (SPCE), we clearly highlighted that we think the Street's consensus has been too optimistic about Virgin Galactic's revenue estimates as we thought the projections overstated the market opportunity for suborbital space tourism over the next 10 years to a large extent, based on our research that consulted multiple sources, and we submitted a revised projection.\nSince then, the Street has revised its near-term projections downwards as the company recently indicated that they are expecting to commence commercial service only from late Q3'CY22.\nThis article will discuss the circumstances leading to Virgin Galactic's \"delayed\" launch, the long-term opportunities, and the competitive threat facing Virgin's leadership quest in suborbital space tourism.\nLastly, we would present our valuation argument for long-term investors considering adding exposure to the stock right now.\nRevisions to Virgin Galactic's Mean Consensus Estimates\nMay's consensus revenue estimates & Aug's consensus revenue estimates. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nScale of revised estimates (Between May and Aug estimates). Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nInvestors should be able to glean clearly that near-term consensus estimates were revised downwards from May's projections that affected CY21 to CY25. However, we think what's important for investors to note is that the Street revised its estimates meaningfully upwards from CY26 to reflect the strong demand that SPCE highlighted during its recent earnings call, which we think demonstrates the company's confidence in a strong revenue runway for the long term, which we would discuss in detail in the subsequent sections.\nPrivate Commercial Full Revenue Service is Expected from Q3'CY22\nSPCE has since lost about 33% of its value since its earnings release on Aug 5, which we think is largely attributed to the near term headwinds resulting from its \"delay\" on commercial service launch as a result of proposed critical enhancements to VSS Unity and the mothership VMS Eve to increase their turnaround time between flights and maintenance significantly.\nAs a result of the enhancements that would take place after the completion of Unity 23 revenue-generating flight with the Italian Air Force, the company expects to commence its private commercial full revenue service only from late Q3'CY22, which we think may have taken investors aback as while the market expected full commercial service to begin in 2022, they did not expect it to be as late as Q3.\nHowever, we think the market has once again chosen to focus on the uncertainty resulting from the near-term revenue service delay and ignore the importance of the enhancements that are expected to improve VMS Eve's turnaround time so significantly that Virgin Galactic emphasized:\n\n These enhancements\n could potentially allow Eve to fly 100 flights between major maintenance inspections. This is up from the current interval of 10 flights between major inspections today. This will be an incredibly important success factor during the early commercial service period while we are in process of manufacturing additional motherships.\n\nIn addition, the company also highlighted that with the enhancements, the company is also \"targeting a reduced turnaround flight between Unity flights of 4 to 5 weeks, and that's down from what has at best, been 7 to 8 weeks for VSS Unity.\"\nThe Street and the market were certainly disappointed with the announcement, as analysts cut near-term forecasts and downgraded ratings, and Morgan Stanley also emphasized: \"During this heavy maintenance period, Virgin Galactic will not be able to conduct any space flights until summer of 2022.\"\nSure, no flights. We are certainly not concerned, as the company reiterated the significance of these enhancements:\n\n These are reasonably robust modifications to Eve. But the reason we are taking the additional scope and the additional time for this enhancement period of Eve is because the flight rate that we will derive from Eve following this enhancement period is we plan to build that to effect. It's almost 10x greater between major inspections and what we've been doing now. That will give us an ability to fly Eve much more frequently, and\n that's really important to our initial group of future astronauts as well as the people that we're going to be signing up starting today.\"\n\nIf investors could clearly glean the language used by the company in the above sentence, the company is clearly doing it because they are expecting such a robust demand for its space flight services that we think may have exceeded what the company had initially planned for. So while the recent launch event with Sir Richard Branson was largely seen as a major PR coup, it certainly allowed the company to measure the response from interested customers, and the company has clearly indicated that they see such robust demand that they needed to open up a priority list as soon as possible as CEO Michael Colglazier articulated:\n\n Leveraging the substantial demand we have seen to our website, I am pleased to announce that we will soon open a priority list for future space travelers who wish to be next in line. We will reach out first to this list with any available inventory following the conclusion of our spacefarer conversion process. Registration for this list will soon be made available on our website...We have an enormous amount of confidence in the total addressable market that's been kind of shown from the response to [Sir Richard Branson's] Unity 22. So we won't be absorbing all of it, but we do think we can make a major step forward here.\n\nWe are not sure what the market and other investors think. Still, the company needs to find a way to cope with the demand from what's obviously a heavily supply-constrained situation. The next best thing they would do in the near term is to make the necessary modifications to VMS Eve and VSS Unity to ensure these highly valued potential customers don't go knocking on the door of Jeff Bezos's Blue Origin (BORGN).\nAre There Really So Many Customers Who Couldn't Wait to Get On Board VSS Unity?\nYes, it's pretty incredible to think that the company is expecting so many customers who couldn't wait to get on board. Lisa Rich, the Managing Partner at the venture capital firm Hemisphere Ventures, articulated: \"...I've met so many Virgin [Galactic] ticket holders over the years. And by the way, every one of them has told me that the $250,000 they've spent waiting has paid for itself 10 times over because of the experiences that they have shared over the years.\"\nInvestors should clearly understand that the community of 600 future astronauts that have committed to Virgin Galactic's flight services formed a tight-knit group over the years as the company emphasized: \"I think one thing that probably [is] not well known outside of the existing future astronaut is one of the secret weapons of Virgin Galactic is our astronaut office. This is a group of people who have brought together these 600 people into a true community.\"\nThe company emphasized that these customers really value the journey towards realizing the flight experience as these customers consider it a \"life-transitional journey.\" They see so much value in what Virgin Galactic is doing that the company emphasized that their customers consider joining the community that the company brought together is \"[a] top, top of mind [priority] and very powerful.\"\nImportantly, the company also highlighted that they have opened up ticket sales to their 1000-strong \"Spacefarer\" community who has signed up through the company's \"One Small Step\" program, with a price starting from $450K per seat, that's way higher than the $200K to $250K per seat that the initial 600 future astronauts signed up for.\nVirgin Galactic believes that these future astronauts are going to be the \"sales ambassadors\" for the company because of the experience of the strong and tight-knit astronaut community that the company has painstakingly built up: \"...And so I think you can think about lifetime value in several ways. One of them is as people move through being a future astronaut graduate into the astronaut community, I think they're going to come back, and I think it will just be very natural in how people will share the experience.And I think them sharing the experience will not only let people say how wonderful it was, but it will also bring normalcy to the concept of human spaceflight. So this group of people as we bring them in, the lifetime value is all-around demand and continuing to increase the total addressable market as they go out there and share what they've done.\"\nStrong Demand Justifies Rapid Scaling Up To Achieve Strong Operating Leverage\nAstute investors would clearly have recognized that if the company relied on just the fleet of VSS Unity or VSS Imagine to dominate the market for suborbital space tourism, it would have been largely insufficient.\nBased on the company's guidance and the Street's estimates, working through the company's initial community of 600 future astronauts would take a few years at least without the modifications to VMS Eve.\nThe initial cadence (before modifications) for 2022 is a maximum of 10 revenue flights comprising 60 passengers in total. Moving on to 2023, the company could also only fly a maximum of 24 to 36 flights annually, which would allow them to fly a maximum of 144 to 216 astronauts. Thus, it may be at least another 2 years until 2025 before Virgin Galactic could start to work through the order book from the 1000 Spacefarer community, and we think by then, at least some of them would have gone over to Blue Origin. Therefore, the initial cadence really doesn't work, especially with the company preparing to draw up its priority list soon for the interest generated from the Unity 22 PR campaign, and they need to work through the 1,600 future astronauts fast, which in the near term would be solved by Eve's modifications since it allows SPCE to fly 10x more in between major inspections.\nHowever, the company still thinks that would still be insufficient to cater to the level of demand that they have been experiencing. As a result, they announced that they would be building their next-gen Delta class vehicles \"that are capable of turning on a 1-week interval.\" This class of ships is expected to form the majority of the company's future capacity over time.\nPart of the reason that the company needed to raise the $500M equity offering recently is that they are ready to start developing and build the Delta class vehicles that would be highly instrumental towards meeting their long term capacity and cadence, that VSS Unity and VSS Imagine would never be able to meet sufficiently.\nCrucially, the company highlighted that by ramping production and capacity through the Delta class, they would be able to achieve significant operating leverage as Virgin Galactic emphasized: \"...And that's why we're so focused on getting the Delta class with next generation of mothership. That's where we really get efficiency. That's where we get scale. That's where you'll really see the flow-through come because we'll have a fixed cost basis that is easy for us to communicate and easy for us to contribute the trade for efficiency down the road.\"\nCompeting Against Blue Origin\nWe think operating leverage will be the name of the game here, and Virgin Galactic clearly recognizes that it would be vital for the company to operate at a sufficient scale justified by its demand drivers to compete strongly against Blue Origin.\nWhile we don't think Blue Origin's main game is in suborbital space tourism, as Jeff Bezos also highlighted previously that: \"The architecture and the technology we have chosen is complete overkill for a suborbital tourism mission.”\nWe think Blue Origin's main market certainly goes beyond suborbital space tourism that Morgan Stanley highlighted that \"Mr. Bezos’ company is seeking business in a space market that will triple in size to more than $1 trillion in annual sales by 2040, assuming rapid technological developments enable routine moon landings, asteroid mining and space tourism.\"\nTherefore, while Blue Origin focuses on building up its Space colonies' vision over the long term, we think they would most certainly be able to ramp their production quickly and gain significant operating leverage. The key is how those advantages translate to its suborbital space tourism segment in the near term would be key to determine Virgin Galactic's leadership.\nOne thing is for sure. Both companies expect the price for the suborbital space tourism tickets to come down substantially over time as production scales up and technologies improve. Thus, the key for Virgin Galactic's leadership and survival in this market is to gain operating leverage as quickly as possible to build up those advantages while Blue Origin has its plate full with its various projects across the entire spectrum.\nVirgin Galactic wants to make suborbital space tourism much more accessible, and the key to achieving that is to drive prices down through operating leverage achieved by ramping up production. As a result, we think the company's Delta class plans are highly pivotal to Virgin Galactic's leadership against Blue Origin and highly encourage investors to keep their eyes closely focused on these plans.\nFree Cash Flow Forecast & Valuations\nEBITDA margin forecast & CapEx margin forecast. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEV / Fwd EBITDA trend. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nDespite the delay in launching full revenue service to Q3'22, the Street's estimates expect the company to be FCF profitable from the end of FY24. We think that's important as it demonstrates the long-term cash flow potential for the company's business in this market, where only BORGN and SPCE are the clear leaders right now.\nHowever, the valuations still look expensive at 18.5x by the end of 2030, 36% above its aerospace and defense peers comp set mean of 13.61x.\nStreet's mean price target. Source: TIKR\nThe Street is also not too optimistic, as the mean target price of $35.55 is a mere 13.5% above the last closing price, as analysts focused on SPCE's near term \"headwind\" of moving its revenue service to Q3'CY22, which we think is highly important to its long term competitive advantage.\nWhile we are really excited about the company's long-term prospects, as well as its ambition to bring suborbital space tourism to the world, we are not so sure about Virgin Galactic's expensively-looking valuation.\nSPCE Stock Price Action and Trend Analysis\nSource: TradingView\nWhile we don't think SPCE would be a suitable stock for long-term investors given its expensive valuation, we think position traders may still find an opportunity lurking around the horizon with this stock.\nSPCE is strongly supported along its 50-week moving average dynamic support level that has held strongly since 2020, including the recent false break to the downside (bear trap) it saw in May. Therefore, position traders keen to trade this stock may find an opportunity once the price action resolves itself in the next couple of weeks, we hope.\nIn summary, we assign a neutral rating to SPCE for long-term investors.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPCE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1535,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":894872798,"gmtCreate":1628819089314,"gmtModify":1631890499607,"author":{"id":"4091706622349130","authorId":"4091706622349130","name":"Stephenlimmh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36bc849c38db97b89159d04639c780dd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091706622349130","idStr":"4091706622349130"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Is railway really profitable?","listText":"Is railway really profitable?","text":"Is railway really profitable?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894872798","repostId":"1142689390","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142689390","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628814930,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142689390?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-13 08:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Kansas City Southern sticks with CN Rail, rejects new Canadian Pacific offer<blockquote>堪萨斯城南方铁路公司坚持与加拿大国家铁路公司合作，拒绝加拿大太平洋公司的新报价</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142689390","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Kansas City Southern says its board has determined that the latest unsolicited proposal from Canadia","content":"<p><ul>  <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KSU\">Kansas City Southern</a> says its board has determined that the latest unsolicited proposal from <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CP\">Canadian Pacific Railway</a>&nbsp;does not constitute a superior proposal, and reaffirms its support of a merger with <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNI\">Canadian National Railway</a>.</li>  <li>The company says it will wait for the U.S. Surface Transportation Board to make a ruling on the deal before a shareholder vote.</li>  <li>Earlier this week, CP&nbsp;submitted a new $300/share offer&nbsp;that values KC Southern at $31B.</li>  <li>Under the terms of the Canadian National deal, KC Southern shareholders would receive $200 in cash and 1.129 CN common shares for each KSU common share.</li>  <li>The consensus view points to alikely rejection of the KSU-CNI deal by the STB.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KSU\">堪萨斯城南部</a>表示其董事会已确定最新主动提出的提案<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CP\">加拿大太平洋铁路</a>不构成优越的提议，并重申支持与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNI\">加拿大国家铁路</a>.</li><li>该公司表示，将等待美国地面运输委员会对该交易做出裁决，然后再进行股东投票。</li><li>本周早些时候，CP提交了每股300美元的新报价，对KC Southern的估值为310亿美元。</li><li>根据加拿大国家交易条款，KC Southern股东每股KSU普通股将获得200美元现金和1.129 CN普通股。</li><li>共识观点指出，STB可能会拒绝KSU-CNI交易。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Kansas City Southern sticks with CN Rail, rejects new Canadian Pacific offer<blockquote>堪萨斯城南方铁路公司坚持与加拿大国家铁路公司合作，拒绝加拿大太平洋公司的新报价</blockquote></title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nKansas City Southern sticks with CN Rail, rejects new Canadian Pacific offer<blockquote>堪萨斯城南方铁路公司坚持与加拿大国家铁路公司合作，拒绝加拿大太平洋公司的新报价</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-13 08:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul>  <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KSU\">Kansas City Southern</a> says its board has determined that the latest unsolicited proposal from <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CP\">Canadian Pacific Railway</a>&nbsp;does not constitute a superior proposal, and reaffirms its support of a merger with <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNI\">Canadian National Railway</a>.</li>  <li>The company says it will wait for the U.S. Surface Transportation Board to make a ruling on the deal before a shareholder vote.</li>  <li>Earlier this week, CP&nbsp;submitted a new $300/share offer&nbsp;that values KC Southern at $31B.</li>  <li>Under the terms of the Canadian National deal, KC Southern shareholders would receive $200 in cash and 1.129 CN common shares for each KSU common share.</li>  <li>The consensus view points to alikely rejection of the KSU-CNI deal by the STB.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KSU\">堪萨斯城南部</a>表示其董事会已确定最新主动提出的提案<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CP\">加拿大太平洋铁路</a>不构成优越的提议，并重申支持与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNI\">加拿大国家铁路</a>.</li><li>该公司表示，将等待美国地面运输委员会对该交易做出裁决，然后再进行股东投票。</li><li>本周早些时候，CP提交了每股300美元的新报价，对KC Southern的估值为310亿美元。</li><li>根据加拿大国家交易条款，KC Southern股东每股KSU普通股将获得200美元现金和1.129 CN普通股。</li><li>共识观点指出，STB可能会拒绝KSU-CNI交易。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3730117-kansas-city-southern-sticks-with-cn-rail-rejects-new-canadian-pacific-offer\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"KSU":"堪萨斯南方铁路","CP":"加拿大太平洋铁路","CNI":"加拿大国家铁路"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3730117-kansas-city-southern-sticks-with-cn-rail-rejects-new-canadian-pacific-offer","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142689390","content_text":"Kansas City Southern says its board has determined that the latest unsolicited proposal from Canadian Pacific Railway does not constitute a superior proposal, and reaffirms its support of a merger with Canadian National Railway.\nThe company says it will wait for the U.S. Surface Transportation Board to make a ruling on the deal before a shareholder vote.\nEarlier this week, CP submitted a new $300/share offer that values KC Southern at $31B.\nUnder the terms of the Canadian National deal, KC Southern shareholders would receive $200 in cash and 1.129 CN common shares for each KSU common share.\nThe consensus view points to alikely rejection of the KSU-CNI deal by the STB.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CP":0.9,"KSU":0.9,"CNI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1448,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":894923251,"gmtCreate":1628783786773,"gmtModify":1631890499616,"author":{"id":"4091706622349130","authorId":"4091706622349130","name":"Stephenlimmh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36bc849c38db97b89159d04639c780dd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091706622349130","idStr":"4091706622349130"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The hackers had a conscience, lol.","listText":"The hackers had a conscience, lol.","text":"The hackers had a conscience, lol.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894923251","repostId":"2158688512","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":469,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":895459012,"gmtCreate":1628768215736,"gmtModify":1631892910145,"author":{"id":"4091706622349130","authorId":"4091706622349130","name":"Stephenlimmh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36bc849c38db97b89159d04639c780dd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091706622349130","idStr":"4091706622349130"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Looks like the dow is not really down","listText":"Looks like the dow is not really down","text":"Looks like the dow is not really down","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/895459012","repostId":"2158254838","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":472,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":833510812,"gmtCreate":1629249331436,"gmtModify":1631890499550,"author":{"id":"4091706622349130","authorId":"4091706622349130","name":"Stephenlimmh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36bc849c38db97b89159d04639c780dd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4091706622349130","authorIdStr":"4091706622349130"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Is it really worth it to buy Tesla over byd?","listText":"Is it really worth it to buy Tesla over byd?","text":"Is it really worth it to buy Tesla over byd?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/833510812","repostId":"1189114396","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189114396","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629247487,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1189114396?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-18 08:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock Sells off While Institutions Continue to Buy.<blockquote>特斯拉股票遭到抛售，而机构继续买入。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189114396","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Tesla stock has tumbled almost 10% off recent highs but institutions are continuing to buy.\nIn a mar","content":"<p>Tesla stock has tumbled almost 10% off recent highs but institutions are continuing to buy.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价较近期高点下跌近10%，但机构仍在继续买入。</blockquote></p><p> In a market filled with&nbsp;liquidity, the \"buy the dip mentality\" continues to persist. This appears to be true with Tesla stock and institutions.</p><p><blockquote>在流动性充盈的市场中，“逢低买入心态”继续坚持。特斯拉股票和机构似乎也是如此。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Demand for Shares Increases in Q3</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三季度股票需求增加</b></blockquote></p><p> Q3 has been on pace to be the first quarter since Q4 2020 to have an overall&nbsp;net inflow&nbsp;of Tesla stock into institutions—those with at least $100 million under management. Currently, there is a net inflow of $7 billion of Tesla stock into institutions. 13F filings were due August 15th to show any quarter-over-quarter changes in Q2, however, institutions can continue to update positions throughout the third quarter.</p><p><blockquote>第三季度有望成为自2020年第四季度以来特斯拉股票整体净流入机构（管理规模至少为1亿美元的机构）的第一个季度。目前，有70亿美元的特斯拉股票净流入机构。13F文件将于8月15日提交，以显示第二季度的任何环比变化，但是，机构可以在整个第三季度继续更新头寸。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/373bcfeda661a3fdddb1ad430c075270\" tg-width=\"683\" tg-height=\"604\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>via: marketbeat.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>通过：marketbeat.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Of those \"buying the dip\" the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, increased their position&nbsp;617% quarter-over-quarter&nbsp;for a total of&nbsp;330,196 shares. While this accounts for a small position in the&nbsp;under management&nbsp;for CPPIB, others have made Tesla a larger portion of their portfolio. Australia-based Hyperion Asset Management has also increased its Tesla stock position by over 20%. As a result of the additional shares, Tesla stock is now over 15% of Hyperions portfolio demonstrating more conviction than Cathie Wood'sARKKwith a ~10% allocation to Tesla stock.</p><p><blockquote>在那些“逢低买入”的人中，加拿大养老金计划投资委员会的持仓量环比增加了617%，总计330,196股。虽然这只占CPPIB管理的一小部分，但其他人已将特斯拉纳入其投资组合的更大一部分。总部位于澳洲的Hyperion Asset Management也将其特斯拉股票头寸增加了20%以上。由于增发股票，特斯拉股票目前占Hyperions投资组合的15%以上，比Cathie Wood的ARKK更有信心，ARKK约10%分配给特斯拉股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Notable Bear</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一只著名的熊</b></blockquote></p><p> While not a direct seller of shares, Dr. Michael Burry—famed for hisshortposition against subprime mortgage bonds—has announced in Scion Asset Management's&nbsp;13F&nbsp;the purchase of additional Put Options against Tesla. Scion Asset management has held a bearish Put Option against Tesla since Q1 2021. The aforementioned Put Options&nbsp;— representing 35% of Scion's portfolio and a current market value of ~$731 million—&nbsp;are Scion's largest positions.</p><p><blockquote>虽然不是股票的直接卖家，但以做空次级抵押贷款债券而闻名的Michael Burry博士在Scion Asset Management的13 F中宣布购买额外的特斯拉看跌期权。自2021年第一季度以来，Scion Asset management一直持有针对特斯拉的看跌看跌期权。上述看跌期权占Scion投资组合的35%，目前市值约为7.31亿美元，是Scion最大的头寸。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock Sells off While Institutions Continue to Buy.<blockquote>特斯拉股票遭到抛售，而机构继续买入。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock Sells off While Institutions Continue to Buy.<blockquote>特斯拉股票遭到抛售，而机构继续买入。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-18 08:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla stock has tumbled almost 10% off recent highs but institutions are continuing to buy.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价较近期高点下跌近10%，但机构仍在继续买入。</blockquote></p><p> In a market filled with&nbsp;liquidity, the \"buy the dip mentality\" continues to persist. This appears to be true with Tesla stock and institutions.</p><p><blockquote>在流动性充盈的市场中，“逢低买入心态”继续坚持。特斯拉股票和机构似乎也是如此。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Demand for Shares Increases in Q3</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三季度股票需求增加</b></blockquote></p><p> Q3 has been on pace to be the first quarter since Q4 2020 to have an overall&nbsp;net inflow&nbsp;of Tesla stock into institutions—those with at least $100 million under management. Currently, there is a net inflow of $7 billion of Tesla stock into institutions. 13F filings were due August 15th to show any quarter-over-quarter changes in Q2, however, institutions can continue to update positions throughout the third quarter.</p><p><blockquote>第三季度有望成为自2020年第四季度以来特斯拉股票整体净流入机构（管理规模至少为1亿美元的机构）的第一个季度。目前，有70亿美元的特斯拉股票净流入机构。13F文件将于8月15日提交，以显示第二季度的任何环比变化，但是，机构可以在整个第三季度继续更新头寸。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/373bcfeda661a3fdddb1ad430c075270\" tg-width=\"683\" tg-height=\"604\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>via: marketbeat.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>通过：marketbeat.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Of those \"buying the dip\" the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, increased their position&nbsp;617% quarter-over-quarter&nbsp;for a total of&nbsp;330,196 shares. While this accounts for a small position in the&nbsp;under management&nbsp;for CPPIB, others have made Tesla a larger portion of their portfolio. Australia-based Hyperion Asset Management has also increased its Tesla stock position by over 20%. As a result of the additional shares, Tesla stock is now over 15% of Hyperions portfolio demonstrating more conviction than Cathie Wood'sARKKwith a ~10% allocation to Tesla stock.</p><p><blockquote>在那些“逢低买入”的人中，加拿大养老金计划投资委员会的持仓量环比增加了617%，总计330,196股。虽然这只占CPPIB管理的一小部分，但其他人已将特斯拉纳入其投资组合的更大一部分。总部位于澳洲的Hyperion Asset Management也将其特斯拉股票头寸增加了20%以上。由于增发股票，特斯拉股票目前占Hyperions投资组合的15%以上，比Cathie Wood的ARKK更有信心，ARKK约10%分配给特斯拉股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Notable Bear</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一只著名的熊</b></blockquote></p><p> While not a direct seller of shares, Dr. Michael Burry—famed for hisshortposition against subprime mortgage bonds—has announced in Scion Asset Management's&nbsp;13F&nbsp;the purchase of additional Put Options against Tesla. Scion Asset management has held a bearish Put Option against Tesla since Q1 2021. The aforementioned Put Options&nbsp;— representing 35% of Scion's portfolio and a current market value of ~$731 million—&nbsp;are Scion's largest positions.</p><p><blockquote>虽然不是股票的直接卖家，但以做空次级抵押贷款债券而闻名的Michael Burry博士在Scion Asset Management的13 F中宣布购买额外的特斯拉看跌期权。自2021年第一季度以来，Scion Asset management一直持有针对特斯拉的看跌看跌期权。上述看跌期权占Scion投资组合的35%，目前市值约为7.31亿美元，是Scion最大的头寸。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/tesla/news/institutions-continue-to-buy-q3\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/tesla/news/institutions-continue-to-buy-q3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189114396","content_text":"Tesla stock has tumbled almost 10% off recent highs but institutions are continuing to buy.\nIn a market filled with liquidity, the \"buy the dip mentality\" continues to persist. This appears to be true with Tesla stock and institutions.\nDemand for Shares Increases in Q3\nQ3 has been on pace to be the first quarter since Q4 2020 to have an overall net inflow of Tesla stock into institutions—those with at least $100 million under management. Currently, there is a net inflow of $7 billion of Tesla stock into institutions. 13F filings were due August 15th to show any quarter-over-quarter changes in Q2, however, institutions can continue to update positions throughout the third quarter.\nvia: marketbeat.com\nOf those \"buying the dip\" the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, increased their position 617% quarter-over-quarter for a total of 330,196 shares. While this accounts for a small position in the under management for CPPIB, others have made Tesla a larger portion of their portfolio. Australia-based Hyperion Asset Management has also increased its Tesla stock position by over 20%. As a result of the additional shares, Tesla stock is now over 15% of Hyperions portfolio demonstrating more conviction than Cathie Wood'sARKKwith a ~10% allocation to Tesla stock.\nA Notable Bear\nWhile not a direct seller of shares, Dr. Michael Burry—famed for hisshortposition against subprime mortgage bonds—has announced in Scion Asset Management's 13F the purchase of additional Put Options against Tesla. Scion Asset management has held a bearish Put Option against Tesla since Q1 2021. The aforementioned Put Options — representing 35% of Scion's portfolio and a current market value of ~$731 million— are Scion's largest positions.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1550,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":894923251,"gmtCreate":1628783786773,"gmtModify":1631890499616,"author":{"id":"4091706622349130","authorId":"4091706622349130","name":"Stephenlimmh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36bc849c38db97b89159d04639c780dd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4091706622349130","authorIdStr":"4091706622349130"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The hackers had a conscience, lol.","listText":"The hackers had a conscience, lol.","text":"The hackers had a conscience, lol.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894923251","repostId":"2158688512","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":469,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897414875,"gmtCreate":1628956937398,"gmtModify":1631890499595,"author":{"id":"4091706622349130","authorId":"4091706622349130","name":"Stephenlimmh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36bc849c38db97b89159d04639c780dd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4091706622349130","authorIdStr":"4091706622349130"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Maybe 0 maybe 1000","listText":"Maybe 0 maybe 1000","text":"Maybe 0 maybe 1000","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/897414875","repostId":"1149823415","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149823415","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628909753,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149823415?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-14 10:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where Will Virgin Galactic Stock Be In 10 Years?<blockquote>10年后维珍银河的股票会在哪里？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149823415","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nVirgin Galactic fell more than 30% post-earnings as the market was disappointed with the \"d","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Virgin Galactic fell more than 30% post-earnings as the market was disappointed with the \"delay\" affecting the launch of its private commercial revenue service.</li>  <li>However, we think the company's \"delay\" is necessary for it to rectify its supply constraints and meet the huge demand that the company is experiencing.</li>  <li>We would also discuss in detail the company's long-term opportunities and threats, and what investors need to monitor moving forward.</li>  <li>Lastly, we present our valuation arguments for long-term investors who are considering adding exposure to Virgin Galactic.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00922c9874a28954c08c613b8dbf378b\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"493\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Nastco/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>由于市场对影响其私人商业收入服务推出的“延迟”感到失望，维珍银河财报后下跌超过30%。</li><li>然而，我们认为该公司的“延迟”对于纠正供应限制并满足该公司正在经历的巨大需求是必要的。</li><li>我们还将详细讨论公司的长期机遇和威胁，以及投资者未来需要监控的内容。</li><li>最后，我们为正在考虑增加维珍银河投资的长期投资者提出了我们的估值论点。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Nastco/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Back in May, when we published our previous article (link to article appendedhere) on Virgin Galactic (SPCE), we clearly highlighted that we think the Street's consensus has been too optimistic about Virgin Galactic's revenue estimates as we thought the projections overstated the market opportunity for suborbital space tourism over the next 10 years to a large extent, based on our research that consulted multiple sources, and we submitted a revised projection.</p><p><blockquote>早在5月份，当我们发表关于维珍银河(SPCE)的上一篇文章（链接到本文所附文章）时，我们明确强调，我们认为华尔街的共识对维珍银河的收入预测过于乐观，因为我们认为这些预测夸大了市场根据我们咨询多个来源的研究，未来10年亚轨道太空旅游的机会在很大程度上，我们提交了修订后的预测。</blockquote></p><p> Since then, the Street has revised its near-term projections downwards as the company recently indicated that they are expecting to commence commercial service only from&nbsp;late Q3'CY22.</p><p><blockquote>此后，华尔街日报下调了近期预测，因为该公司最近表示，他们预计仅从2022年第三季度末开始提供商业服务。</blockquote></p><p> This article will discuss the circumstances leading to Virgin Galactic's \"delayed\" launch, the long-term opportunities, and the competitive threat facing Virgin's leadership quest in suborbital space tourism.</p><p><blockquote>本文将讨论导致维珍银河“延迟”发射的情况、长期机遇以及维珍在亚轨道太空旅游领域寻求领导地位所面临的竞争威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, we would present our valuation argument for long-term investors considering adding exposure to the stock right now.</p><p><blockquote>最后，我们将为目前考虑增加该股投资的长期投资者提出我们的估值论点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revisions to Virgin Galactic's Mean Consensus Estimates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>对维珍银河平均共识估计的修正</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e15e65a740bf4a03405cd6f31e82bfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>May's consensus revenue estimates &amp; Aug's consensus revenue estimates. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>5月份的普遍收入估计和8月份的普遍收入估计。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/149d99203d29b3a3e785096ccc509c57\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Scale of revised estimates (Between May and Aug estimates). Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>修订估计数的规模（5月至8月估计数之间）。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Investors should be able to glean clearly that near-term consensus estimates were revised downwards from May's projections that affected CY21 to CY25. However, we think what's important for investors to note is that the Street revised its estimates meaningfully upwards from CY26 to reflect the strong demand that SPCE highlighted during its recent earnings call, which we think demonstrates the company's confidence in a strong revenue runway for the long term, which we would discuss in detail in the subsequent sections.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该能够清楚地收集到，近期共识预期较5月份影响21年至25年的预测有所下调。然而，我们认为投资者需要注意的是，华尔街从CY26大幅上调了其预期，以反映SPCE在最近的盈利看涨期权中强调的强劲需求，我们认为这表明了该公司对强劲收入跑道的信心长期，我们将在后续章节中详细讨论。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Private Commercial Full Revenue Service is Expected from Q3'CY22</b></p><p><blockquote><b>私人商业全收入服务预计从2022年第三季度开始</b></blockquote></p><p> SPCE has since lost about 33% of its value since its earnings release on Aug 5, which we think is largely attributed to the near term headwinds resulting from its \"delay\" on commercial service launch as a result of proposed critical enhancements to VSS Unity and the mothership VMS Eve to increase their turnaround time between flights and maintenance significantly.</p><p><blockquote>自8月5日发布财报以来，SPCE的价值已下跌约33%，我们认为这主要是由于VSS Unity和VSS Unity拟议的关键增强功能导致其商业服务推出“延迟”而带来的近期阻力。母舰VMS Eve将显着增加飞行和维护之间的周转时间。</blockquote></p><p> As a result of the enhancements that would take place after the completion of Unity 23 revenue-generating flight with the Italian Air Force, the company expects to commence its private commercial full revenue service only from late Q3'CY22, which we think may have taken investors aback as while the market expected full commercial service to begin in 2022, they did not expect it to be as late as Q3.</p><p><blockquote>由于Unity 23与意大利空军的创收飞行完成后将进行的增强，该公司预计仅从2022年第三季度末开始其私人商业全面收入服务，我们认为这可能会让投资者大吃一惊，因为虽然市场预计全面商业服务将于2022年开始，但他们预计不会晚于第三季度。</blockquote></p><p> However, we think the market has once again chosen to focus on the uncertainty resulting from the near-term revenue service delay and ignore the importance of the enhancements that are expected to improve VMS Eve's turnaround time so significantly that Virgin Galactic emphasized:</p><p><blockquote>然而，我们认为市场再次选择关注近期收入服务延迟带来的不确定性，而忽视了预计将显着改善VMS Eve周转时间的增强功能的重要性，以至于维珍银河强调：</blockquote></p><p>   These enhancements  <i>could potentially allow Eve to fly 100 flights between major maintenance inspections</i>. This is up from the current interval of 10 flights between major inspections today. This will be an incredibly important success factor during the early commercial service period while we are in process of manufacturing additional motherships.  In addition, the company also highlighted that with the enhancements, the company is also \"targeting a reduced turnaround flight between Unity flights of 4 to 5 weeks, and that's down from what has at best, been 7 to 8 weeks for VSS Unity.\"</p><p><blockquote>这些增强功能<i>可能允许Eve在主要维护检查之间飞行100次航班</i>这比今天主要检查之间的10个航班间隔有所增加。在早期商业服务期间，当我们正在制造更多母舰时，这将是一个非常重要的成功因素。此外，该公司还强调，通过这些增强功能，该公司还“目标是将Unity航班之间的周转飞行时间减少4至5周，而VSS Unity最多7至8周。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The Street and the market were certainly disappointed with the announcement, as analysts cut near-term forecasts and downgraded ratings, and Morgan Stanley also emphasized: \"During this heavy maintenance period, Virgin Galactic will not be able to conduct any space flights until summer of 2022.\"</p><p><blockquote>华尔街和市场当然对这一消息感到失望，因为分析师下调了近期预测并下调了评级，摩根士丹利还强调：“在这个繁重的维护期间，维珍银河在2022年夏季之前都无法进行任何太空飞行。”</blockquote></p><p> Sure, no flights. We are certainly not concerned, as the company reiterated the significance of these enhancements:</p><p><blockquote>当然，没有航班。我们当然不担心，因为该公司重申了这些增强功能的重要性：</blockquote></p><p>   These are reasonably robust modifications to Eve. But the reason we are taking the additional scope and the additional time for this enhancement period of Eve is because the flight rate that we will derive from Eve following this enhancement period is we plan to build that to effect. It's almost 10x greater between major inspections and what we've been doing now. That will give us an ability to fly Eve much more frequently, and  <i>that's really important to our initial group of future astronauts as well as the people that we're going to be signing up starting today</i>.\"  If investors could clearly glean the language used by the company in the above sentence, the company is clearly doing it because they are expecting such a robust demand for its space flight services that we think may have exceeded what the company had initially planned for. So while the recent launch event with Sir Richard Branson was largely seen as a major PR coup, it certainly allowed the company to measure the response from interested customers, and the company has clearly indicated that they see such robust demand that they needed to open up a priority list as soon as possible as CEO Michael Colglazier articulated:</p><p><blockquote>这些都是对Eve相当稳健的修改。但是，我们为Eve的增强期增加范围和时间的原因是，在此增强期之后，我们将从Eve获得的飞行率是我们计划建立的。在主要检查和我们现在所做的之间，这几乎是10倍。这将使我们能够更频繁地飞行Eve，并且<i>这对我们未来的第一批宇航员以及我们将从今天开始报名的人来说非常重要</i>.“如果投资者能够清楚地收集该公司在上述句子中使用的语言，那么该公司显然这样做是因为他们预计对其太空飞行服务的需求如此强劲，我们认为这可能超出了该公司最初的计划。因此，虽然最近与理查德·布兰森爵士举行的发布会在很大程度上被视为一次重大的公关妙招，但它无疑让该公司能够衡量感兴趣的客户的反应，并且该公司明确表示，他们看到了如此强劲的需求，因此需要开放正如首席执行官迈克尔·科尔格拉齐尔(Michael Colglazier)所阐明的那样，尽快列出优先事项清单：</blockquote></p><p>   Leveraging the substantial demand we have seen to our website, I am pleased to announce that we will soon open a priority list for future space travelers who wish to be next in line. We will reach out first to this list with any available inventory following the conclusion of our spacefarer conversion process. Registration for this list will soon be made available on our website...We have an enormous amount of confidence in the total addressable market that's been kind of shown from the response to [Sir Richard Branson's] Unity 22. So we won't be absorbing all of it, but we do think we can make a major step forward here.  We are not sure what the market and other investors think. Still, the company needs to find a way to cope with the demand from what's obviously a heavily supply-constrained situation. The next best thing they would do in the near term is to make the necessary modifications to VMS Eve and VSS Unity to ensure these highly valued potential customers don't go knocking on the door of Jeff Bezos's Blue Origin (BORGN).</p><p><blockquote>利用我们在网站上看到的巨大需求，我很高兴地宣布，我们将很快为希望成为下一个的未来太空旅行者开放一个优先名单。在我们的太空人转换过程结束后，我们将首先向这个列表提供任何可用的库存。该名单的注册将很快在我们的网站上提供...我们对整个潜在市场充满信心，对[理查德·布兰森爵士]Unity 22的反应就表明了这一点。所以我们不会全部吸收，但我们确实认为我们可以在这里向前迈出一大步。我们不确定市场和其他投资者的想法。尽管如此，该公司仍需要找到一种方法来应对供应明显严重受限的情况下的需求。他们在短期内会做的下一件最好的事情是对VMS Eve和VSS Unity进行必要的修改，以确保这些高价值的潜在客户不会去敲杰夫·贝索斯蓝色起源(BORGN)的门。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Are There Really So Many Customers Who Couldn't Wait to Get On Board VSS Unity?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>真的有那么多迫不及待想上VSS Unity的客户吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Yes, it's pretty incredible to think that the company is expecting so many customers who couldn't wait to get on board. Lisa Rich, the Managing Partner at the venture capital firm Hemisphere Ventures, articulated: \"...I've met so many Virgin [Galactic] ticket&nbsp;holders over the years. And by the way, every one of them has told me that the $250,000 they've spent waiting has paid for itself 10 times over because of the experiences that they have shared over the years.\"</p><p><blockquote>是的，想到该公司期待这么多迫不及待地加入的客户，真是令人难以置信。风险投资公司Hemisphere Ventures的管理合伙人丽莎·里奇(Lisa Rich)明确表示：“……这些年来，我遇到了很多维珍（银河）的持票人。顺便说一句，他们每个人都告诉我，由于他们多年来分享的经历，他们花在等待上的25万美元已经收回了10倍。”</blockquote></p><p> Investors should clearly understand that the community of 600 future astronauts that have committed to Virgin Galactic's flight services formed a tight-knit group over the years as the company emphasized: \"I think one thing that probably [is] not well known outside of the existing future astronaut is one of the secret weapons of Virgin Galactic is our astronaut office. This is a group of people who have brought together these 600 people into a true community.\"</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该清楚地了解，多年来，由600名致力于维珍银河飞行服务的未来宇航员组成的社区形成了一个紧密团结的团体，正如该公司所强调的那样：“我认为在现有的未来宇航员之外可能不为人所知的一件事是维珍银河的秘密武器之一，那就是我们的宇航员办公室。这是一群人，他们将这600人聚集成了一个真正的社区。”</blockquote></p><p> The company emphasized that these customers really value the journey towards realizing the flight experience as these customers consider it a \"life-transitional journey.\" They see so much value in what Virgin Galactic is doing that the company emphasized that their customers consider joining the community that the company brought together is \"[a] top, top of mind [priority] and very powerful.\"</p><p><blockquote>该公司强调，这些客户真正重视实现飞行体验的旅程，因为这些客户认为这是一次“人生过渡之旅”。他们看到了维珍银河所做的事情的巨大价值，以至于该公司强调，他们的客户认为加入该公司汇集的社区是“首要考虑的[优先事项]并且非常强大”。</blockquote></p><p> Importantly, the company also highlighted that they have opened up ticket sales to their 1000-strong \"Spacefarer\" community who has signed up through the company's \"One Small Step\" program, with a price starting from $450K per seat, that's way higher than the $200K to $250K per seat that the initial 600 future astronauts signed up for.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，该公司还强调，他们已经向通过该公司“一小步”计划注册的1000多名“宇航员”社区开放了门票销售，每个座位的价格从45万美元起，远高于最初600名未来宇航员注册的每个座位20万至25万美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Virgin Galactic believes that these future astronauts are going to be the \"sales ambassadors\" for the company because of the experience of the strong and tight-knit astronaut community that the company has painstakingly built up: \"...And so I think you can think about lifetime value in several ways. One of them is as people move through being a future astronaut graduate into the astronaut community, I think they're going to come back, and I think it will just be very natural in how people will share the experience<b><i>.</i></b>And I think them sharing the experience will not only let people say how wonderful it was, but it will also bring normalcy to the concept of human spaceflight. So this group of people as we bring them in, the lifetime value is all-around demand and continuing to increase the total addressable market as they go out there and share what they've done.\"</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河认为，这些未来的宇航员将成为公司的“销售大使”，因为他们拥有该公司煞费苦心建立的强大而紧密的宇航员社区的经验：“……所以我认为你可以从几个方面来思考终身价值。其中之一是当人们从未来的宇航员毕业生进入宇航员社区时，我认为他们会回来，我认为人们分享这些经验是非常自然的<b><i>.</i></b>我认为他们分享这段经历不仅会让人们说这是多么美妙，还会给人类航天的概念带来常态。因此，当我们将这群人引入时，他们的终身价值是全面的需求，并在他们走出去分享他们所做的事情时继续增加总的潜在市场。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Strong Demand Justifies Rapid Scaling Up To Achieve Strong Operating Leverage</b></p><p><blockquote><b>强劲的需求证明快速扩大规模以实现强劲的运营杠杆是合理的</b></blockquote></p><p> Astute investors would clearly have recognized that if the company relied on just the fleet of VSS Unity or VSS Imagine to dominate the market for suborbital space tourism, it would have been largely insufficient.</p><p><blockquote>精明的投资者会清楚地认识到，如果该公司仅依靠VSS Unity或VSS Imagine机队来主导亚轨道太空旅游市场，这在很大程度上是不够的。</blockquote></p><p> Based on the company's guidance and the Street's estimates, working through the company's initial community of 600 future astronauts would take a few years at least without the modifications to VMS Eve.</p><p><blockquote>根据该公司的指导和华尔街的估计，如果不对VMS Eve进行修改，该公司最初的600名未来宇航员社区的工作至少需要几年时间。</blockquote></p><p> The initial cadence (before modifications) for 2022 is a maximum of 10 revenue flights comprising 60 passengers in total. Moving on to 2023, the company could also only fly a maximum of 24 to 36 flights annually, which would allow them to fly a maximum of 144 to 216 astronauts. Thus, it may be at least another 2 years until 2025 before Virgin Galactic could start to work through the order book from the 1000 Spacefarer community, and we think by then, at least some of them would have gone over to Blue Origin. Therefore, the initial cadence really doesn't work, especially with the company preparing to draw up its priority list soon for the interest generated from the Unity 22 PR campaign, and they need to work through the 1,600 future astronauts fast, which in the near term would be solved by Eve's modifications since it allows SPCE to fly 10x more in between major inspections.</p><p><blockquote>2022年的初始节奏（修改前）是最多10个收入航班，总共60名乘客。到2023年，该公司每年最多只能飞行24至36次航班，这将允许他们最多飞行144至216名宇航员。因此，到2025年，维珍银河可能至少还需要2年时间才能开始处理1000名宇航员社区的订单，我们认为到那时，至少其中一些人会去蓝色起源。因此，最初的节奏真的不起作用，特别是该公司准备很快为Unity 22公关活动产生的兴趣制定优先列表，他们需要快速完成1600名未来宇航员的工作，这在短期内将通过Eve的修改来解决，因为它允许SPCE在主要检查之间多飞行10倍。</blockquote></p><p> However, the company still thinks that would still be insufficient to cater to the level of demand that they have been experiencing. As a result, they announced that they would be building their next-gen Delta class vehicles \"that are capable of turning on a 1-week interval.\" This class of ships is expected to form the majority of the company's future capacity over time.</p><p><blockquote>然而，该公司仍然认为这仍然不足以满足他们所经历的需求水平。因此，他们宣布将制造下一代Delta级车辆，“能够每隔一周启动一次”。随着时间的推移，此类船舶预计将构成该公司未来运力的大部分。</blockquote></p><p> Part of the reason that the company needed to raise the&nbsp;$500M equity&nbsp;offering recently is that they are ready to start developing and build the Delta class vehicles that would be highly instrumental towards meeting their long term capacity and cadence, that VSS Unity and VSS Imagine would never be able to meet sufficiently.</p><p><blockquote>该公司最近需要筹集5亿美元股票发行的部分原因是，他们已准备好开始开发和制造Delta级车辆，这将非常有助于满足其长期产能和节奏，VSS Unity和VSS想象永远无法充分满足。</blockquote></p><p> Crucially, the company highlighted that by ramping production and capacity through the Delta class, they would be able to achieve significant operating leverage as Virgin Galactic emphasized: \"...And that's why we're so focused on getting the Delta class with next generation of mothership. That's where we really get efficiency. That's where we get scale. That's where you'll really see the flow-through come because we'll have a fixed cost basis that is easy for us to communicate and easy for us to contribute the trade for efficiency down the road.\"</p><p><blockquote>至关重要的是，该公司强调，通过提高达美级的产量和产能，他们将能够实现显著的运营杠杆，正如维珍银河强调的那样：“...这就是为什么我们如此专注于用下一代母舰获得达美级。这是我们真正获得效率的地方。这是我们获得规模的地方。这是你真正看到流通的地方，因为我们将有一个固定的成本基础，便于我们沟通，也便于我们在未来为效率做出贡献。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Competing Against Blue Origin</b></p><p><blockquote><b>与蓝色起源竞争</b></blockquote></p><p> We think operating leverage will be the name of the game here, and Virgin Galactic clearly recognizes that it would be vital for the company to operate at a sufficient scale justified by its demand drivers to compete strongly against Blue Origin.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为运营杠杆将成为这里的游戏名称，维珍银河清楚地认识到，对于该公司来说，以其需求驱动因素所证明的足够规模运营以与蓝色起源进行强有力的竞争至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> While we don't think Blue Origin's main game is in suborbital space tourism, as Jeff Bezos also highlighted previously that: \"The architecture&nbsp;and the technology we have chosen is complete overkill for a suborbital tourism mission.”</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们不认为蓝色起源的主要游戏是亚轨道太空旅游，但正如杰夫·贝索斯之前也强调的那样：“我们选择的架构和技术对于亚轨道旅游任务来说完全是矫枉过正。”</blockquote></p><p> We think Blue Origin's main market certainly goes beyond suborbital space tourism that Morgan Stanley highlighted that \"Mr. Bezos’ company is seeking business in a space market that will triple in size to more than $1 trillion in annual sales by 2040, assuming rapid technological developments enable routine moon landings, asteroid mining and space tourism.\"</p><p><blockquote>我们认为蓝色起源的主要市场肯定超出了亚轨道太空旅游，摩根士丹利强调，“贝佐斯先生的公司正在太空市场寻求业务，假设技术快速发展，到2040年，太空市场的规模将扩大两倍，年销售额将超过1万亿美元。实现例行登月、小行星采矿和太空旅游。”</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, while Blue Origin focuses on building up its Space colonies' vision over the long term, we think they would most certainly be able to ramp their production quickly and gain significant operating leverage. The key is how those advantages translate to its suborbital space tourism segment in the near term would be key to determine Virgin Galactic's leadership.</p><p><blockquote>因此，虽然蓝色起源专注于建立其太空殖民地的长期愿景，但我们认为他们肯定能够快速提高产量并获得显着的运营杠杆。关键是这些优势如何在短期内转化为其亚轨道太空旅游领域，这将是决定维珍银河领导地位的关键。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One thing is for sure. Both companies expect the price for the suborbital space tourism tickets to come down substantially over time as production scales up and technologies improve. Thus, the key for Virgin Galactic's leadership and survival in this market is to gain operating leverage as quickly as possible to build up those advantages while Blue Origin has its plate full with its various projects across the entire spectrum.</p><p><blockquote>有一件事是肯定的。两家公司预计，随着生产规模的扩大和技术的改进，亚轨道太空旅游门票的价格将随着时间的推移大幅下降。因此，维珍银河在这个市场中的领导地位和生存的关键是尽快获得运营杠杆以建立这些优势，而蓝色起源则忙于其整个领域的各种项目。</blockquote></p><p> Virgin Galactic wants to make suborbital space tourism much more accessible, and the key to achieving that is to drive prices down through operating leverage achieved by ramping up production. As a result, we think the company's Delta class plans are highly pivotal to Virgin Galactic's leadership against Blue Origin and highly encourage investors to keep their eyes closely focused on these plans.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河希望让亚轨道太空旅游变得更加容易，而实现这一目标的关键是通过提高产量实现的运营杠杆来降低价格。因此，我们认为该公司的达美级计划对于维珍银河对抗蓝色起源的领导地位至关重要，并强烈鼓励投资者密切关注这些计划。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Free Cash Flow Forecast &amp; Valuations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>自由现金流预测和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48be5e8da375fdc72591e31b96a223f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>EBITDA margin forecast &amp; CapEx margin forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EBITDA利润率预测和资本支出利润率预测。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57509b52b1c0ac46a44e7a0dd619bd97\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>EV / Fwd EBITDA trend. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV/Fwd EBITDA趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Despite the delay in launching full revenue service to Q3'22, the Street's estimates expect the company to be FCF profitable from the end of FY24. We think that's important as it demonstrates the long-term cash flow potential for the company's business in this market, where only BORGN and SPCE are the clear leaders right now.</p><p><blockquote>尽管全面收入服务的推出推迟到22年第三季度，但华尔街预计该公司将从2024财年末开始实现自由现金流盈利。我们认为这很重要，因为它展示了公司业务在这个市场的长期现金流潜力，目前只有BORGN和SPCE是明显的领导者。</blockquote></p><p> However, the valuations still look expensive at 18.5x by the end of 2030, 36% above its aerospace and defense peers comp set mean of 13.61x.</p><p><blockquote>然而，到2030年底，估值看起来仍然昂贵，为18.5倍，比航空航天和国防同行13.61倍的平均水平高出36%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1084f3186f9732fad8d28b824c65de2a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"472\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Street's mean price target. Source: TIKR</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Street的平均目标价。来源：TIKR</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The Street is also not too optimistic, as the mean target price of $35.55 is a mere 13.5% above the last closing price, as analysts focused on SPCE's near term \"headwind\" of moving its revenue service to Q3'CY22, which we think is highly important to its long term competitive advantage.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街也不太乐观，平均目标价为35.55美元，仅比上一收盘价高出13.5%，因为分析师关注SPCE将其收入服务转移到2022年第三季度的近期“阻力”，我们认为这对其长期竞争优势非常重要。</blockquote></p><p> While we are really excited about the company's long-term prospects, as well as its ambition to bring suborbital space tourism to the world, we are not so sure about Virgin Galactic's expensively-looking valuation.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们对该公司的长期前景以及将亚轨道太空旅游带给世界的雄心感到非常兴奋，但我们对维珍银河看似昂贵的估值并不那么确定。</blockquote></p><p> <b>SPCE Stock Price Action and Trend Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>SPCE股价走势及趋势分析</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f872b3e8670eac6d5ca4d8afce15200\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While we don't think SPCE would be a suitable stock for long-term investors given its expensive valuation, we think position traders may still find an opportunity lurking around the horizon with this stock.</p><p><blockquote>虽然鉴于SPCE的估值昂贵，我们认为SPCE不适合长期投资者，但我们认为头寸交易者仍可能发现该股潜伏的机会。</blockquote></p><p> SPCE is strongly supported along its 50-week moving average dynamic support level that has held strongly since 2020, including the recent false break to the downside (bear trap) it saw in May. Therefore, position traders keen to trade this stock may find an opportunity once the price action resolves itself in the next couple of weeks, we hope.</p><p><blockquote>SPCE在50周移动平均线动态支撑位上受到强有力的支撑，该支撑位自2020年以来一直保持强劲，包括最近5月份出现的下行错误突破（熊市陷阱）。因此，我们希望，一旦价格走势在未来几周内自行解决，热衷于交易该股票的头寸交易者可能会找到机会。</blockquote></p><p> In summary, we assign a neutral rating to SPCE for long-term investors.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，我们为长期投资者给予SPCE中性评级。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Will Virgin Galactic Stock Be In 10 Years?<blockquote>10年后维珍银河的股票会在哪里？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Will Virgin Galactic Stock Be In 10 Years?<blockquote>10年后维珍银河的股票会在哪里？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-14 10:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Virgin Galactic fell more than 30% post-earnings as the market was disappointed with the \"delay\" affecting the launch of its private commercial revenue service.</li>  <li>However, we think the company's \"delay\" is necessary for it to rectify its supply constraints and meet the huge demand that the company is experiencing.</li>  <li>We would also discuss in detail the company's long-term opportunities and threats, and what investors need to monitor moving forward.</li>  <li>Lastly, we present our valuation arguments for long-term investors who are considering adding exposure to Virgin Galactic.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00922c9874a28954c08c613b8dbf378b\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"493\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Nastco/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>由于市场对影响其私人商业收入服务推出的“延迟”感到失望，维珍银河财报后下跌超过30%。</li><li>然而，我们认为该公司的“延迟”对于纠正供应限制并满足该公司正在经历的巨大需求是必要的。</li><li>我们还将详细讨论公司的长期机遇和威胁，以及投资者未来需要监控的内容。</li><li>最后，我们为正在考虑增加维珍银河投资的长期投资者提出了我们的估值论点。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Nastco/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Back in May, when we published our previous article (link to article appendedhere) on Virgin Galactic (SPCE), we clearly highlighted that we think the Street's consensus has been too optimistic about Virgin Galactic's revenue estimates as we thought the projections overstated the market opportunity for suborbital space tourism over the next 10 years to a large extent, based on our research that consulted multiple sources, and we submitted a revised projection.</p><p><blockquote>早在5月份，当我们发表关于维珍银河(SPCE)的上一篇文章（链接到本文所附文章）时，我们明确强调，我们认为华尔街的共识对维珍银河的收入预测过于乐观，因为我们认为这些预测夸大了市场根据我们咨询多个来源的研究，未来10年亚轨道太空旅游的机会在很大程度上，我们提交了修订后的预测。</blockquote></p><p> Since then, the Street has revised its near-term projections downwards as the company recently indicated that they are expecting to commence commercial service only from&nbsp;late Q3'CY22.</p><p><blockquote>此后，华尔街日报下调了近期预测，因为该公司最近表示，他们预计仅从2022年第三季度末开始提供商业服务。</blockquote></p><p> This article will discuss the circumstances leading to Virgin Galactic's \"delayed\" launch, the long-term opportunities, and the competitive threat facing Virgin's leadership quest in suborbital space tourism.</p><p><blockquote>本文将讨论导致维珍银河“延迟”发射的情况、长期机遇以及维珍在亚轨道太空旅游领域寻求领导地位所面临的竞争威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, we would present our valuation argument for long-term investors considering adding exposure to the stock right now.</p><p><blockquote>最后，我们将为目前考虑增加该股投资的长期投资者提出我们的估值论点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revisions to Virgin Galactic's Mean Consensus Estimates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>对维珍银河平均共识估计的修正</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e15e65a740bf4a03405cd6f31e82bfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>May's consensus revenue estimates &amp; Aug's consensus revenue estimates. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>5月份的普遍收入估计和8月份的普遍收入估计。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/149d99203d29b3a3e785096ccc509c57\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Scale of revised estimates (Between May and Aug estimates). Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>修订估计数的规模（5月至8月估计数之间）。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Investors should be able to glean clearly that near-term consensus estimates were revised downwards from May's projections that affected CY21 to CY25. However, we think what's important for investors to note is that the Street revised its estimates meaningfully upwards from CY26 to reflect the strong demand that SPCE highlighted during its recent earnings call, which we think demonstrates the company's confidence in a strong revenue runway for the long term, which we would discuss in detail in the subsequent sections.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该能够清楚地收集到，近期共识预期较5月份影响21年至25年的预测有所下调。然而，我们认为投资者需要注意的是，华尔街从CY26大幅上调了其预期，以反映SPCE在最近的盈利看涨期权中强调的强劲需求，我们认为这表明了该公司对强劲收入跑道的信心长期，我们将在后续章节中详细讨论。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Private Commercial Full Revenue Service is Expected from Q3'CY22</b></p><p><blockquote><b>私人商业全收入服务预计从2022年第三季度开始</b></blockquote></p><p> SPCE has since lost about 33% of its value since its earnings release on Aug 5, which we think is largely attributed to the near term headwinds resulting from its \"delay\" on commercial service launch as a result of proposed critical enhancements to VSS Unity and the mothership VMS Eve to increase their turnaround time between flights and maintenance significantly.</p><p><blockquote>自8月5日发布财报以来，SPCE的价值已下跌约33%，我们认为这主要是由于VSS Unity和VSS Unity拟议的关键增强功能导致其商业服务推出“延迟”而带来的近期阻力。母舰VMS Eve将显着增加飞行和维护之间的周转时间。</blockquote></p><p> As a result of the enhancements that would take place after the completion of Unity 23 revenue-generating flight with the Italian Air Force, the company expects to commence its private commercial full revenue service only from late Q3'CY22, which we think may have taken investors aback as while the market expected full commercial service to begin in 2022, they did not expect it to be as late as Q3.</p><p><blockquote>由于Unity 23与意大利空军的创收飞行完成后将进行的增强，该公司预计仅从2022年第三季度末开始其私人商业全面收入服务，我们认为这可能会让投资者大吃一惊，因为虽然市场预计全面商业服务将于2022年开始，但他们预计不会晚于第三季度。</blockquote></p><p> However, we think the market has once again chosen to focus on the uncertainty resulting from the near-term revenue service delay and ignore the importance of the enhancements that are expected to improve VMS Eve's turnaround time so significantly that Virgin Galactic emphasized:</p><p><blockquote>然而，我们认为市场再次选择关注近期收入服务延迟带来的不确定性，而忽视了预计将显着改善VMS Eve周转时间的增强功能的重要性，以至于维珍银河强调：</blockquote></p><p>   These enhancements  <i>could potentially allow Eve to fly 100 flights between major maintenance inspections</i>. This is up from the current interval of 10 flights between major inspections today. This will be an incredibly important success factor during the early commercial service period while we are in process of manufacturing additional motherships.  In addition, the company also highlighted that with the enhancements, the company is also \"targeting a reduced turnaround flight between Unity flights of 4 to 5 weeks, and that's down from what has at best, been 7 to 8 weeks for VSS Unity.\"</p><p><blockquote>这些增强功能<i>可能允许Eve在主要维护检查之间飞行100次航班</i>这比今天主要检查之间的10个航班间隔有所增加。在早期商业服务期间，当我们正在制造更多母舰时，这将是一个非常重要的成功因素。此外，该公司还强调，通过这些增强功能，该公司还“目标是将Unity航班之间的周转飞行时间减少4至5周，而VSS Unity最多7至8周。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The Street and the market were certainly disappointed with the announcement, as analysts cut near-term forecasts and downgraded ratings, and Morgan Stanley also emphasized: \"During this heavy maintenance period, Virgin Galactic will not be able to conduct any space flights until summer of 2022.\"</p><p><blockquote>华尔街和市场当然对这一消息感到失望，因为分析师下调了近期预测并下调了评级，摩根士丹利还强调：“在这个繁重的维护期间，维珍银河在2022年夏季之前都无法进行任何太空飞行。”</blockquote></p><p> Sure, no flights. We are certainly not concerned, as the company reiterated the significance of these enhancements:</p><p><blockquote>当然，没有航班。我们当然不担心，因为该公司重申了这些增强功能的重要性：</blockquote></p><p>   These are reasonably robust modifications to Eve. But the reason we are taking the additional scope and the additional time for this enhancement period of Eve is because the flight rate that we will derive from Eve following this enhancement period is we plan to build that to effect. It's almost 10x greater between major inspections and what we've been doing now. That will give us an ability to fly Eve much more frequently, and  <i>that's really important to our initial group of future astronauts as well as the people that we're going to be signing up starting today</i>.\"  If investors could clearly glean the language used by the company in the above sentence, the company is clearly doing it because they are expecting such a robust demand for its space flight services that we think may have exceeded what the company had initially planned for. So while the recent launch event with Sir Richard Branson was largely seen as a major PR coup, it certainly allowed the company to measure the response from interested customers, and the company has clearly indicated that they see such robust demand that they needed to open up a priority list as soon as possible as CEO Michael Colglazier articulated:</p><p><blockquote>这些都是对Eve相当稳健的修改。但是，我们为Eve的增强期增加范围和时间的原因是，在此增强期之后，我们将从Eve获得的飞行率是我们计划建立的。在主要检查和我们现在所做的之间，这几乎是10倍。这将使我们能够更频繁地飞行Eve，并且<i>这对我们未来的第一批宇航员以及我们将从今天开始报名的人来说非常重要</i>.“如果投资者能够清楚地收集该公司在上述句子中使用的语言，那么该公司显然这样做是因为他们预计对其太空飞行服务的需求如此强劲，我们认为这可能超出了该公司最初的计划。因此，虽然最近与理查德·布兰森爵士举行的发布会在很大程度上被视为一次重大的公关妙招，但它无疑让该公司能够衡量感兴趣的客户的反应，并且该公司明确表示，他们看到了如此强劲的需求，因此需要开放正如首席执行官迈克尔·科尔格拉齐尔(Michael Colglazier)所阐明的那样，尽快列出优先事项清单：</blockquote></p><p>   Leveraging the substantial demand we have seen to our website, I am pleased to announce that we will soon open a priority list for future space travelers who wish to be next in line. We will reach out first to this list with any available inventory following the conclusion of our spacefarer conversion process. Registration for this list will soon be made available on our website...We have an enormous amount of confidence in the total addressable market that's been kind of shown from the response to [Sir Richard Branson's] Unity 22. So we won't be absorbing all of it, but we do think we can make a major step forward here.  We are not sure what the market and other investors think. Still, the company needs to find a way to cope with the demand from what's obviously a heavily supply-constrained situation. The next best thing they would do in the near term is to make the necessary modifications to VMS Eve and VSS Unity to ensure these highly valued potential customers don't go knocking on the door of Jeff Bezos's Blue Origin (BORGN).</p><p><blockquote>利用我们在网站上看到的巨大需求，我很高兴地宣布，我们将很快为希望成为下一个的未来太空旅行者开放一个优先名单。在我们的太空人转换过程结束后，我们将首先向这个列表提供任何可用的库存。该名单的注册将很快在我们的网站上提供...我们对整个潜在市场充满信心，对[理查德·布兰森爵士]Unity 22的反应就表明了这一点。所以我们不会全部吸收，但我们确实认为我们可以在这里向前迈出一大步。我们不确定市场和其他投资者的想法。尽管如此，该公司仍需要找到一种方法来应对供应明显严重受限的情况下的需求。他们在短期内会做的下一件最好的事情是对VMS Eve和VSS Unity进行必要的修改，以确保这些高价值的潜在客户不会去敲杰夫·贝索斯蓝色起源(BORGN)的门。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Are There Really So Many Customers Who Couldn't Wait to Get On Board VSS Unity?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>真的有那么多迫不及待想上VSS Unity的客户吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Yes, it's pretty incredible to think that the company is expecting so many customers who couldn't wait to get on board. Lisa Rich, the Managing Partner at the venture capital firm Hemisphere Ventures, articulated: \"...I've met so many Virgin [Galactic] ticket&nbsp;holders over the years. And by the way, every one of them has told me that the $250,000 they've spent waiting has paid for itself 10 times over because of the experiences that they have shared over the years.\"</p><p><blockquote>是的，想到该公司期待这么多迫不及待地加入的客户，真是令人难以置信。风险投资公司Hemisphere Ventures的管理合伙人丽莎·里奇(Lisa Rich)明确表示：“……这些年来，我遇到了很多维珍（银河）的持票人。顺便说一句，他们每个人都告诉我，由于他们多年来分享的经历，他们花在等待上的25万美元已经收回了10倍。”</blockquote></p><p> Investors should clearly understand that the community of 600 future astronauts that have committed to Virgin Galactic's flight services formed a tight-knit group over the years as the company emphasized: \"I think one thing that probably [is] not well known outside of the existing future astronaut is one of the secret weapons of Virgin Galactic is our astronaut office. This is a group of people who have brought together these 600 people into a true community.\"</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该清楚地了解，多年来，由600名致力于维珍银河飞行服务的未来宇航员组成的社区形成了一个紧密团结的团体，正如该公司所强调的那样：“我认为在现有的未来宇航员之外可能不为人所知的一件事是维珍银河的秘密武器之一，那就是我们的宇航员办公室。这是一群人，他们将这600人聚集成了一个真正的社区。”</blockquote></p><p> The company emphasized that these customers really value the journey towards realizing the flight experience as these customers consider it a \"life-transitional journey.\" They see so much value in what Virgin Galactic is doing that the company emphasized that their customers consider joining the community that the company brought together is \"[a] top, top of mind [priority] and very powerful.\"</p><p><blockquote>该公司强调，这些客户真正重视实现飞行体验的旅程，因为这些客户认为这是一次“人生过渡之旅”。他们看到了维珍银河所做的事情的巨大价值，以至于该公司强调，他们的客户认为加入该公司汇集的社区是“首要考虑的[优先事项]并且非常强大”。</blockquote></p><p> Importantly, the company also highlighted that they have opened up ticket sales to their 1000-strong \"Spacefarer\" community who has signed up through the company's \"One Small Step\" program, with a price starting from $450K per seat, that's way higher than the $200K to $250K per seat that the initial 600 future astronauts signed up for.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，该公司还强调，他们已经向通过该公司“一小步”计划注册的1000多名“宇航员”社区开放了门票销售，每个座位的价格从45万美元起，远高于最初600名未来宇航员注册的每个座位20万至25万美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Virgin Galactic believes that these future astronauts are going to be the \"sales ambassadors\" for the company because of the experience of the strong and tight-knit astronaut community that the company has painstakingly built up: \"...And so I think you can think about lifetime value in several ways. One of them is as people move through being a future astronaut graduate into the astronaut community, I think they're going to come back, and I think it will just be very natural in how people will share the experience<b><i>.</i></b>And I think them sharing the experience will not only let people say how wonderful it was, but it will also bring normalcy to the concept of human spaceflight. So this group of people as we bring them in, the lifetime value is all-around demand and continuing to increase the total addressable market as they go out there and share what they've done.\"</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河认为，这些未来的宇航员将成为公司的“销售大使”，因为他们拥有该公司煞费苦心建立的强大而紧密的宇航员社区的经验：“……所以我认为你可以从几个方面来思考终身价值。其中之一是当人们从未来的宇航员毕业生进入宇航员社区时，我认为他们会回来，我认为人们分享这些经验是非常自然的<b><i>.</i></b>我认为他们分享这段经历不仅会让人们说这是多么美妙，还会给人类航天的概念带来常态。因此，当我们将这群人引入时，他们的终身价值是全面的需求，并在他们走出去分享他们所做的事情时继续增加总的潜在市场。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Strong Demand Justifies Rapid Scaling Up To Achieve Strong Operating Leverage</b></p><p><blockquote><b>强劲的需求证明快速扩大规模以实现强劲的运营杠杆是合理的</b></blockquote></p><p> Astute investors would clearly have recognized that if the company relied on just the fleet of VSS Unity or VSS Imagine to dominate the market for suborbital space tourism, it would have been largely insufficient.</p><p><blockquote>精明的投资者会清楚地认识到，如果该公司仅依靠VSS Unity或VSS Imagine机队来主导亚轨道太空旅游市场，这在很大程度上是不够的。</blockquote></p><p> Based on the company's guidance and the Street's estimates, working through the company's initial community of 600 future astronauts would take a few years at least without the modifications to VMS Eve.</p><p><blockquote>根据该公司的指导和华尔街的估计，如果不对VMS Eve进行修改，该公司最初的600名未来宇航员社区的工作至少需要几年时间。</blockquote></p><p> The initial cadence (before modifications) for 2022 is a maximum of 10 revenue flights comprising 60 passengers in total. Moving on to 2023, the company could also only fly a maximum of 24 to 36 flights annually, which would allow them to fly a maximum of 144 to 216 astronauts. Thus, it may be at least another 2 years until 2025 before Virgin Galactic could start to work through the order book from the 1000 Spacefarer community, and we think by then, at least some of them would have gone over to Blue Origin. Therefore, the initial cadence really doesn't work, especially with the company preparing to draw up its priority list soon for the interest generated from the Unity 22 PR campaign, and they need to work through the 1,600 future astronauts fast, which in the near term would be solved by Eve's modifications since it allows SPCE to fly 10x more in between major inspections.</p><p><blockquote>2022年的初始节奏（修改前）是最多10个收入航班，总共60名乘客。到2023年，该公司每年最多只能飞行24至36次航班，这将允许他们最多飞行144至216名宇航员。因此，到2025年，维珍银河可能至少还需要2年时间才能开始处理1000名宇航员社区的订单，我们认为到那时，至少其中一些人会去蓝色起源。因此，最初的节奏真的不起作用，特别是该公司准备很快为Unity 22公关活动产生的兴趣制定优先列表，他们需要快速完成1600名未来宇航员的工作，这在短期内将通过Eve的修改来解决，因为它允许SPCE在主要检查之间多飞行10倍。</blockquote></p><p> However, the company still thinks that would still be insufficient to cater to the level of demand that they have been experiencing. As a result, they announced that they would be building their next-gen Delta class vehicles \"that are capable of turning on a 1-week interval.\" This class of ships is expected to form the majority of the company's future capacity over time.</p><p><blockquote>然而，该公司仍然认为这仍然不足以满足他们所经历的需求水平。因此，他们宣布将制造下一代Delta级车辆，“能够每隔一周启动一次”。随着时间的推移，此类船舶预计将构成该公司未来运力的大部分。</blockquote></p><p> Part of the reason that the company needed to raise the&nbsp;$500M equity&nbsp;offering recently is that they are ready to start developing and build the Delta class vehicles that would be highly instrumental towards meeting their long term capacity and cadence, that VSS Unity and VSS Imagine would never be able to meet sufficiently.</p><p><blockquote>该公司最近需要筹集5亿美元股票发行的部分原因是，他们已准备好开始开发和制造Delta级车辆，这将非常有助于满足其长期产能和节奏，VSS Unity和VSS想象永远无法充分满足。</blockquote></p><p> Crucially, the company highlighted that by ramping production and capacity through the Delta class, they would be able to achieve significant operating leverage as Virgin Galactic emphasized: \"...And that's why we're so focused on getting the Delta class with next generation of mothership. That's where we really get efficiency. That's where we get scale. That's where you'll really see the flow-through come because we'll have a fixed cost basis that is easy for us to communicate and easy for us to contribute the trade for efficiency down the road.\"</p><p><blockquote>至关重要的是，该公司强调，通过提高达美级的产量和产能，他们将能够实现显著的运营杠杆，正如维珍银河强调的那样：“...这就是为什么我们如此专注于用下一代母舰获得达美级。这是我们真正获得效率的地方。这是我们获得规模的地方。这是你真正看到流通的地方，因为我们将有一个固定的成本基础，便于我们沟通，也便于我们在未来为效率做出贡献。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Competing Against Blue Origin</b></p><p><blockquote><b>与蓝色起源竞争</b></blockquote></p><p> We think operating leverage will be the name of the game here, and Virgin Galactic clearly recognizes that it would be vital for the company to operate at a sufficient scale justified by its demand drivers to compete strongly against Blue Origin.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为运营杠杆将成为这里的游戏名称，维珍银河清楚地认识到，对于该公司来说，以其需求驱动因素所证明的足够规模运营以与蓝色起源进行强有力的竞争至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> While we don't think Blue Origin's main game is in suborbital space tourism, as Jeff Bezos also highlighted previously that: \"The architecture&nbsp;and the technology we have chosen is complete overkill for a suborbital tourism mission.”</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们不认为蓝色起源的主要游戏是亚轨道太空旅游，但正如杰夫·贝索斯之前也强调的那样：“我们选择的架构和技术对于亚轨道旅游任务来说完全是矫枉过正。”</blockquote></p><p> We think Blue Origin's main market certainly goes beyond suborbital space tourism that Morgan Stanley highlighted that \"Mr. Bezos’ company is seeking business in a space market that will triple in size to more than $1 trillion in annual sales by 2040, assuming rapid technological developments enable routine moon landings, asteroid mining and space tourism.\"</p><p><blockquote>我们认为蓝色起源的主要市场肯定超出了亚轨道太空旅游，摩根士丹利强调，“贝佐斯先生的公司正在太空市场寻求业务，假设技术快速发展，到2040年，太空市场的规模将扩大两倍，年销售额将超过1万亿美元。实现例行登月、小行星采矿和太空旅游。”</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, while Blue Origin focuses on building up its Space colonies' vision over the long term, we think they would most certainly be able to ramp their production quickly and gain significant operating leverage. The key is how those advantages translate to its suborbital space tourism segment in the near term would be key to determine Virgin Galactic's leadership.</p><p><blockquote>因此，虽然蓝色起源专注于建立其太空殖民地的长期愿景，但我们认为他们肯定能够快速提高产量并获得显着的运营杠杆。关键是这些优势如何在短期内转化为其亚轨道太空旅游领域，这将是决定维珍银河领导地位的关键。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One thing is for sure. Both companies expect the price for the suborbital space tourism tickets to come down substantially over time as production scales up and technologies improve. Thus, the key for Virgin Galactic's leadership and survival in this market is to gain operating leverage as quickly as possible to build up those advantages while Blue Origin has its plate full with its various projects across the entire spectrum.</p><p><blockquote>有一件事是肯定的。两家公司预计，随着生产规模的扩大和技术的改进，亚轨道太空旅游门票的价格将随着时间的推移大幅下降。因此，维珍银河在这个市场中的领导地位和生存的关键是尽快获得运营杠杆以建立这些优势，而蓝色起源则忙于其整个领域的各种项目。</blockquote></p><p> Virgin Galactic wants to make suborbital space tourism much more accessible, and the key to achieving that is to drive prices down through operating leverage achieved by ramping up production. As a result, we think the company's Delta class plans are highly pivotal to Virgin Galactic's leadership against Blue Origin and highly encourage investors to keep their eyes closely focused on these plans.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河希望让亚轨道太空旅游变得更加容易，而实现这一目标的关键是通过提高产量实现的运营杠杆来降低价格。因此，我们认为该公司的达美级计划对于维珍银河对抗蓝色起源的领导地位至关重要，并强烈鼓励投资者密切关注这些计划。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Free Cash Flow Forecast &amp; Valuations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>自由现金流预测和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48be5e8da375fdc72591e31b96a223f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>EBITDA margin forecast &amp; CapEx margin forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EBITDA利润率预测和资本支出利润率预测。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57509b52b1c0ac46a44e7a0dd619bd97\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>EV / Fwd EBITDA trend. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV/Fwd EBITDA趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Despite the delay in launching full revenue service to Q3'22, the Street's estimates expect the company to be FCF profitable from the end of FY24. We think that's important as it demonstrates the long-term cash flow potential for the company's business in this market, where only BORGN and SPCE are the clear leaders right now.</p><p><blockquote>尽管全面收入服务的推出推迟到22年第三季度，但华尔街预计该公司将从2024财年末开始实现自由现金流盈利。我们认为这很重要，因为它展示了公司业务在这个市场的长期现金流潜力，目前只有BORGN和SPCE是明显的领导者。</blockquote></p><p> However, the valuations still look expensive at 18.5x by the end of 2030, 36% above its aerospace and defense peers comp set mean of 13.61x.</p><p><blockquote>然而，到2030年底，估值看起来仍然昂贵，为18.5倍，比航空航天和国防同行13.61倍的平均水平高出36%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1084f3186f9732fad8d28b824c65de2a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"472\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Street's mean price target. Source: TIKR</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Street的平均目标价。来源：TIKR</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The Street is also not too optimistic, as the mean target price of $35.55 is a mere 13.5% above the last closing price, as analysts focused on SPCE's near term \"headwind\" of moving its revenue service to Q3'CY22, which we think is highly important to its long term competitive advantage.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街也不太乐观，平均目标价为35.55美元，仅比上一收盘价高出13.5%，因为分析师关注SPCE将其收入服务转移到2022年第三季度的近期“阻力”，我们认为这对其长期竞争优势非常重要。</blockquote></p><p> While we are really excited about the company's long-term prospects, as well as its ambition to bring suborbital space tourism to the world, we are not so sure about Virgin Galactic's expensively-looking valuation.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们对该公司的长期前景以及将亚轨道太空旅游带给世界的雄心感到非常兴奋，但我们对维珍银河看似昂贵的估值并不那么确定。</blockquote></p><p> <b>SPCE Stock Price Action and Trend Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>SPCE股价走势及趋势分析</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f872b3e8670eac6d5ca4d8afce15200\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While we don't think SPCE would be a suitable stock for long-term investors given its expensive valuation, we think position traders may still find an opportunity lurking around the horizon with this stock.</p><p><blockquote>虽然鉴于SPCE的估值昂贵，我们认为SPCE不适合长期投资者，但我们认为头寸交易者仍可能发现该股潜伏的机会。</blockquote></p><p> SPCE is strongly supported along its 50-week moving average dynamic support level that has held strongly since 2020, including the recent false break to the downside (bear trap) it saw in May. Therefore, position traders keen to trade this stock may find an opportunity once the price action resolves itself in the next couple of weeks, we hope.</p><p><blockquote>SPCE在50周移动平均线动态支撑位上受到强有力的支撑，该支撑位自2020年以来一直保持强劲，包括最近5月份出现的下行错误突破（熊市陷阱）。因此，我们希望，一旦价格走势在未来几周内自行解决，热衷于交易该股票的头寸交易者可能会找到机会。</blockquote></p><p> In summary, we assign a neutral rating to SPCE for long-term investors.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，我们为长期投资者给予SPCE中性评级。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449270-virgin-galactic-stock-10-years\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPCE":"维珍银河"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449270-virgin-galactic-stock-10-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149823415","content_text":"Summary\n\nVirgin Galactic fell more than 30% post-earnings as the market was disappointed with the \"delay\" affecting the launch of its private commercial revenue service.\nHowever, we think the company's \"delay\" is necessary for it to rectify its supply constraints and meet the huge demand that the company is experiencing.\nWe would also discuss in detail the company's long-term opportunities and threats, and what investors need to monitor moving forward.\nLastly, we present our valuation arguments for long-term investors who are considering adding exposure to Virgin Galactic.\n\nNastco/iStock via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nBack in May, when we published our previous article (link to article appendedhere) on Virgin Galactic (SPCE), we clearly highlighted that we think the Street's consensus has been too optimistic about Virgin Galactic's revenue estimates as we thought the projections overstated the market opportunity for suborbital space tourism over the next 10 years to a large extent, based on our research that consulted multiple sources, and we submitted a revised projection.\nSince then, the Street has revised its near-term projections downwards as the company recently indicated that they are expecting to commence commercial service only from late Q3'CY22.\nThis article will discuss the circumstances leading to Virgin Galactic's \"delayed\" launch, the long-term opportunities, and the competitive threat facing Virgin's leadership quest in suborbital space tourism.\nLastly, we would present our valuation argument for long-term investors considering adding exposure to the stock right now.\nRevisions to Virgin Galactic's Mean Consensus Estimates\nMay's consensus revenue estimates & Aug's consensus revenue estimates. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nScale of revised estimates (Between May and Aug estimates). Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nInvestors should be able to glean clearly that near-term consensus estimates were revised downwards from May's projections that affected CY21 to CY25. However, we think what's important for investors to note is that the Street revised its estimates meaningfully upwards from CY26 to reflect the strong demand that SPCE highlighted during its recent earnings call, which we think demonstrates the company's confidence in a strong revenue runway for the long term, which we would discuss in detail in the subsequent sections.\nPrivate Commercial Full Revenue Service is Expected from Q3'CY22\nSPCE has since lost about 33% of its value since its earnings release on Aug 5, which we think is largely attributed to the near term headwinds resulting from its \"delay\" on commercial service launch as a result of proposed critical enhancements to VSS Unity and the mothership VMS Eve to increase their turnaround time between flights and maintenance significantly.\nAs a result of the enhancements that would take place after the completion of Unity 23 revenue-generating flight with the Italian Air Force, the company expects to commence its private commercial full revenue service only from late Q3'CY22, which we think may have taken investors aback as while the market expected full commercial service to begin in 2022, they did not expect it to be as late as Q3.\nHowever, we think the market has once again chosen to focus on the uncertainty resulting from the near-term revenue service delay and ignore the importance of the enhancements that are expected to improve VMS Eve's turnaround time so significantly that Virgin Galactic emphasized:\n\n These enhancements\n could potentially allow Eve to fly 100 flights between major maintenance inspections. This is up from the current interval of 10 flights between major inspections today. This will be an incredibly important success factor during the early commercial service period while we are in process of manufacturing additional motherships.\n\nIn addition, the company also highlighted that with the enhancements, the company is also \"targeting a reduced turnaround flight between Unity flights of 4 to 5 weeks, and that's down from what has at best, been 7 to 8 weeks for VSS Unity.\"\nThe Street and the market were certainly disappointed with the announcement, as analysts cut near-term forecasts and downgraded ratings, and Morgan Stanley also emphasized: \"During this heavy maintenance period, Virgin Galactic will not be able to conduct any space flights until summer of 2022.\"\nSure, no flights. We are certainly not concerned, as the company reiterated the significance of these enhancements:\n\n These are reasonably robust modifications to Eve. But the reason we are taking the additional scope and the additional time for this enhancement period of Eve is because the flight rate that we will derive from Eve following this enhancement period is we plan to build that to effect. It's almost 10x greater between major inspections and what we've been doing now. That will give us an ability to fly Eve much more frequently, and\n that's really important to our initial group of future astronauts as well as the people that we're going to be signing up starting today.\"\n\nIf investors could clearly glean the language used by the company in the above sentence, the company is clearly doing it because they are expecting such a robust demand for its space flight services that we think may have exceeded what the company had initially planned for. So while the recent launch event with Sir Richard Branson was largely seen as a major PR coup, it certainly allowed the company to measure the response from interested customers, and the company has clearly indicated that they see such robust demand that they needed to open up a priority list as soon as possible as CEO Michael Colglazier articulated:\n\n Leveraging the substantial demand we have seen to our website, I am pleased to announce that we will soon open a priority list for future space travelers who wish to be next in line. We will reach out first to this list with any available inventory following the conclusion of our spacefarer conversion process. Registration for this list will soon be made available on our website...We have an enormous amount of confidence in the total addressable market that's been kind of shown from the response to [Sir Richard Branson's] Unity 22. So we won't be absorbing all of it, but we do think we can make a major step forward here.\n\nWe are not sure what the market and other investors think. Still, the company needs to find a way to cope with the demand from what's obviously a heavily supply-constrained situation. The next best thing they would do in the near term is to make the necessary modifications to VMS Eve and VSS Unity to ensure these highly valued potential customers don't go knocking on the door of Jeff Bezos's Blue Origin (BORGN).\nAre There Really So Many Customers Who Couldn't Wait to Get On Board VSS Unity?\nYes, it's pretty incredible to think that the company is expecting so many customers who couldn't wait to get on board. Lisa Rich, the Managing Partner at the venture capital firm Hemisphere Ventures, articulated: \"...I've met so many Virgin [Galactic] ticket holders over the years. And by the way, every one of them has told me that the $250,000 they've spent waiting has paid for itself 10 times over because of the experiences that they have shared over the years.\"\nInvestors should clearly understand that the community of 600 future astronauts that have committed to Virgin Galactic's flight services formed a tight-knit group over the years as the company emphasized: \"I think one thing that probably [is] not well known outside of the existing future astronaut is one of the secret weapons of Virgin Galactic is our astronaut office. This is a group of people who have brought together these 600 people into a true community.\"\nThe company emphasized that these customers really value the journey towards realizing the flight experience as these customers consider it a \"life-transitional journey.\" They see so much value in what Virgin Galactic is doing that the company emphasized that their customers consider joining the community that the company brought together is \"[a] top, top of mind [priority] and very powerful.\"\nImportantly, the company also highlighted that they have opened up ticket sales to their 1000-strong \"Spacefarer\" community who has signed up through the company's \"One Small Step\" program, with a price starting from $450K per seat, that's way higher than the $200K to $250K per seat that the initial 600 future astronauts signed up for.\nVirgin Galactic believes that these future astronauts are going to be the \"sales ambassadors\" for the company because of the experience of the strong and tight-knit astronaut community that the company has painstakingly built up: \"...And so I think you can think about lifetime value in several ways. One of them is as people move through being a future astronaut graduate into the astronaut community, I think they're going to come back, and I think it will just be very natural in how people will share the experience.And I think them sharing the experience will not only let people say how wonderful it was, but it will also bring normalcy to the concept of human spaceflight. So this group of people as we bring them in, the lifetime value is all-around demand and continuing to increase the total addressable market as they go out there and share what they've done.\"\nStrong Demand Justifies Rapid Scaling Up To Achieve Strong Operating Leverage\nAstute investors would clearly have recognized that if the company relied on just the fleet of VSS Unity or VSS Imagine to dominate the market for suborbital space tourism, it would have been largely insufficient.\nBased on the company's guidance and the Street's estimates, working through the company's initial community of 600 future astronauts would take a few years at least without the modifications to VMS Eve.\nThe initial cadence (before modifications) for 2022 is a maximum of 10 revenue flights comprising 60 passengers in total. Moving on to 2023, the company could also only fly a maximum of 24 to 36 flights annually, which would allow them to fly a maximum of 144 to 216 astronauts. Thus, it may be at least another 2 years until 2025 before Virgin Galactic could start to work through the order book from the 1000 Spacefarer community, and we think by then, at least some of them would have gone over to Blue Origin. Therefore, the initial cadence really doesn't work, especially with the company preparing to draw up its priority list soon for the interest generated from the Unity 22 PR campaign, and they need to work through the 1,600 future astronauts fast, which in the near term would be solved by Eve's modifications since it allows SPCE to fly 10x more in between major inspections.\nHowever, the company still thinks that would still be insufficient to cater to the level of demand that they have been experiencing. As a result, they announced that they would be building their next-gen Delta class vehicles \"that are capable of turning on a 1-week interval.\" This class of ships is expected to form the majority of the company's future capacity over time.\nPart of the reason that the company needed to raise the $500M equity offering recently is that they are ready to start developing and build the Delta class vehicles that would be highly instrumental towards meeting their long term capacity and cadence, that VSS Unity and VSS Imagine would never be able to meet sufficiently.\nCrucially, the company highlighted that by ramping production and capacity through the Delta class, they would be able to achieve significant operating leverage as Virgin Galactic emphasized: \"...And that's why we're so focused on getting the Delta class with next generation of mothership. That's where we really get efficiency. That's where we get scale. That's where you'll really see the flow-through come because we'll have a fixed cost basis that is easy for us to communicate and easy for us to contribute the trade for efficiency down the road.\"\nCompeting Against Blue Origin\nWe think operating leverage will be the name of the game here, and Virgin Galactic clearly recognizes that it would be vital for the company to operate at a sufficient scale justified by its demand drivers to compete strongly against Blue Origin.\nWhile we don't think Blue Origin's main game is in suborbital space tourism, as Jeff Bezos also highlighted previously that: \"The architecture and the technology we have chosen is complete overkill for a suborbital tourism mission.”\nWe think Blue Origin's main market certainly goes beyond suborbital space tourism that Morgan Stanley highlighted that \"Mr. Bezos’ company is seeking business in a space market that will triple in size to more than $1 trillion in annual sales by 2040, assuming rapid technological developments enable routine moon landings, asteroid mining and space tourism.\"\nTherefore, while Blue Origin focuses on building up its Space colonies' vision over the long term, we think they would most certainly be able to ramp their production quickly and gain significant operating leverage. The key is how those advantages translate to its suborbital space tourism segment in the near term would be key to determine Virgin Galactic's leadership.\nOne thing is for sure. Both companies expect the price for the suborbital space tourism tickets to come down substantially over time as production scales up and technologies improve. Thus, the key for Virgin Galactic's leadership and survival in this market is to gain operating leverage as quickly as possible to build up those advantages while Blue Origin has its plate full with its various projects across the entire spectrum.\nVirgin Galactic wants to make suborbital space tourism much more accessible, and the key to achieving that is to drive prices down through operating leverage achieved by ramping up production. As a result, we think the company's Delta class plans are highly pivotal to Virgin Galactic's leadership against Blue Origin and highly encourage investors to keep their eyes closely focused on these plans.\nFree Cash Flow Forecast & Valuations\nEBITDA margin forecast & CapEx margin forecast. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEV / Fwd EBITDA trend. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nDespite the delay in launching full revenue service to Q3'22, the Street's estimates expect the company to be FCF profitable from the end of FY24. We think that's important as it demonstrates the long-term cash flow potential for the company's business in this market, where only BORGN and SPCE are the clear leaders right now.\nHowever, the valuations still look expensive at 18.5x by the end of 2030, 36% above its aerospace and defense peers comp set mean of 13.61x.\nStreet's mean price target. Source: TIKR\nThe Street is also not too optimistic, as the mean target price of $35.55 is a mere 13.5% above the last closing price, as analysts focused on SPCE's near term \"headwind\" of moving its revenue service to Q3'CY22, which we think is highly important to its long term competitive advantage.\nWhile we are really excited about the company's long-term prospects, as well as its ambition to bring suborbital space tourism to the world, we are not so sure about Virgin Galactic's expensively-looking valuation.\nSPCE Stock Price Action and Trend Analysis\nSource: TradingView\nWhile we don't think SPCE would be a suitable stock for long-term investors given its expensive valuation, we think position traders may still find an opportunity lurking around the horizon with this stock.\nSPCE is strongly supported along its 50-week moving average dynamic support level that has held strongly since 2020, including the recent false break to the downside (bear trap) it saw in May. Therefore, position traders keen to trade this stock may find an opportunity once the price action resolves itself in the next couple of weeks, we hope.\nIn summary, we assign a neutral rating to SPCE for long-term investors.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPCE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1535,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839216353,"gmtCreate":1629160800472,"gmtModify":1631890499571,"author":{"id":"4091706622349130","authorId":"4091706622349130","name":"Stephenlimmh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36bc849c38db97b89159d04639c780dd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4091706622349130","authorIdStr":"4091706622349130"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839216353","repostId":"2160278866","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1546,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":884907962,"gmtCreate":1631843974456,"gmtModify":1631890499508,"author":{"id":"4091706622349130","authorId":"4091706622349130","name":"Stephenlimmh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36bc849c38db97b89159d04639c780dd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4091706622349130","authorIdStr":"4091706622349130"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/884907962","repostId":"1105376345","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105376345","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631833833,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1105376345?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-17 07:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P ends modestly lower as rising Treasury yields offset robust retail data<blockquote>美国国债收益率上升抵消了强劲的零售数据，标普小幅收低</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105376345","media":"Reuters","summary":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 ended slightly down on Thursday, paring losses in late trading afte","content":"<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 ended slightly down on Thursday, paring losses in late trading after unexpectedly strong retail sales data underscored the strength of the U.S. economic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>路透纽约7月20日电——标普500周四小幅收跌，尾盘收窄跌幅，此前意外强劲的零售销售数据突显美国经济复苏的力度。</blockquote></p><p> The three major indexes spent much of the day in negative territory as rising U.S. Treasury yields pressured market-leading tech stocks, and the rising dollar weighed on exporters.</p><p><blockquote>由于美国国债收益率上升给市场领先的科技股带来压力，以及美元上涨给出口商带来压力，三大股指当天大部分时间都处于负值区域。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon.com Inc, buoyed by solid online sales in the Commerce Department’s report, helped push the Nasdaq into positive territory.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊公司受到商务部报告中强劲的在线销售的提振，帮助推动纳斯达克进入积极区域。</blockquote></p><p> “Looking at today, clearly we had positive news from retail sales and it looks as if the massive slowdown in the economy is not materializing as a lot of people expected,” said Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist at LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina.</p><p><blockquote>北卡罗来纳州夏洛特LPL Financial高级市场策略师瑞安·德特里克(Ryan Detrick)表示：“从今天来看，显然我们收到了来自零售销售的积极消息，而且经济大幅放缓似乎并没有像许多人预期的那样成为现实。”</blockquote></p><p> “It’s a nice reminder that the economy is still taking two steps forward for each step back even amid the COVID concerns,” Detrick added.</p><p><blockquote>德特里克补充道：“这是一个很好的提醒，即使在新冠疫情担忧的情况下，经济仍然每后退一步就向前迈出两步。”</blockquote></p><p> Economically sensitive transports and microchips were among the outperformers.</p><p><blockquote>对经济敏感的运输和微芯片是表现优异的股票之一。</blockquote></p><p> Data released before the opening bell showed an unexpected bump in retail sales as shoppers weathered Hurricane Ida and the COVID Delta variant, evidence of resilience in the consumer, who contributes about 70% to U.S. economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>开盘前公布的数据显示，随着购物者经受住了飓风艾达和新冠德尔塔变异毒株，零售额意外增长，这证明了消费者的韧性，消费者对美国经济增长的贡献约为70%。</blockquote></p><p> “Once again, it shows the U.S. consumer continues to spend and continues to help this economy grow,” Detrick said.</p><p><blockquote>德特里克表示：“这再次表明美国消费者继续支出并继续帮助经济增长。”</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 63.07 points, or 0.18%, to 34,751.32; the S&amp;P 500 lost 6.95 points, or 0.16%, at 4,473.75; and the Nasdaq Composite added 20.40 points, or 0.13%, at 15,181.92.</p><p><blockquote>道琼工业指数跌63.07点，或0.18%，报34751.32点；标普500下跌6.95点，跌幅0.16%，报4,473.75点；纳斯达克综合指数上涨20.40点，即0.13%，至15,181.92点。</blockquote></p><p> Eight of the 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P 500 ended lower, with materials suffering the largest percentage drop.</p><p><blockquote>标普500 11大板块中有8个板块收跌，材料板块跌幅最大。</blockquote></p><p> The consumer discretionary spending sector posted the biggest gain, with Amazon.com doing the heavy lifting.</p><p><blockquote>非必需消费品支出板块涨幅最大，亚马逊首当其冲。</blockquote></p><p> Apparel company Gap Inc gained 1.6%. Online marketplace Etsy Inc and luxury accessory company Tapestry Inc rose 3.1% and 1.9%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>服装公司Gap Inc上涨1.6%。在线市场Etsy Inc和奢侈品配饰公司Tapestry Inc分别上涨3.1%和1.9%。</blockquote></p><p> Ford Motor Co rose 1.4% after it announced plans to boost production of its F-150 electric pickup model.</p><p><blockquote>福特汽车公司股价上涨1.4%，此前该公司宣布计划提高F-150电动皮卡车型的产量。</blockquote></p><p> Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.27-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.06-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌股与上涨股的比例为1.27比1；在纳斯达克，1.06比1的比率有利于上涨者。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted nine new 52-week highs and one new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 82 new highs and 94 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下9个52周新高和1个新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得82个新高和94个新低。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 9.37 billion shares, compared with the 9.44 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所成交量为93.7亿股，而过去20个交易日的平均成交量为94.4亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P ends modestly lower as rising Treasury yields offset robust retail data<blockquote>美国国债收益率上升抵消了强劲的零售数据，标普小幅收低</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-17 07:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 ended slightly down on Thursday, paring losses in late trading after unexpectedly strong retail sales data underscored the strength of the U.S. economic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>路透纽约7月20日电——标普500周四小幅收跌，尾盘收窄跌幅，此前意外强劲的零售销售数据突显美国经济复苏的力度。</blockquote></p><p> The three major indexes spent much of the day in negative territory as rising U.S. Treasury yields pressured market-leading tech stocks, and the rising dollar weighed on exporters.</p><p><blockquote>由于美国国债收益率上升给市场领先的科技股带来压力，以及美元上涨给出口商带来压力，三大股指当天大部分时间都处于负值区域。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon.com Inc, buoyed by solid online sales in the Commerce Department’s report, helped push the Nasdaq into positive territory.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊公司受到商务部报告中强劲的在线销售的提振，帮助推动纳斯达克进入积极区域。</blockquote></p><p> “Looking at today, clearly we had positive news from retail sales and it looks as if the massive slowdown in the economy is not materializing as a lot of people expected,” said Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist at LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina.</p><p><blockquote>北卡罗来纳州夏洛特LPL Financial高级市场策略师瑞安·德特里克(Ryan Detrick)表示：“从今天来看，显然我们收到了来自零售销售的积极消息，而且经济大幅放缓似乎并没有像许多人预期的那样成为现实。”</blockquote></p><p> “It’s a nice reminder that the economy is still taking two steps forward for each step back even amid the COVID concerns,” Detrick added.</p><p><blockquote>德特里克补充道：“这是一个很好的提醒，即使在新冠疫情担忧的情况下，经济仍然每后退一步就向前迈出两步。”</blockquote></p><p> Economically sensitive transports and microchips were among the outperformers.</p><p><blockquote>对经济敏感的运输和微芯片是表现优异的股票之一。</blockquote></p><p> Data released before the opening bell showed an unexpected bump in retail sales as shoppers weathered Hurricane Ida and the COVID Delta variant, evidence of resilience in the consumer, who contributes about 70% to U.S. economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>开盘前公布的数据显示，随着购物者经受住了飓风艾达和新冠德尔塔变异毒株，零售额意外增长，这证明了消费者的韧性，消费者对美国经济增长的贡献约为70%。</blockquote></p><p> “Once again, it shows the U.S. consumer continues to spend and continues to help this economy grow,” Detrick said.</p><p><blockquote>德特里克表示：“这再次表明美国消费者继续支出并继续帮助经济增长。”</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 63.07 points, or 0.18%, to 34,751.32; the S&amp;P 500 lost 6.95 points, or 0.16%, at 4,473.75; and the Nasdaq Composite added 20.40 points, or 0.13%, at 15,181.92.</p><p><blockquote>道琼工业指数跌63.07点，或0.18%，报34751.32点；标普500下跌6.95点，跌幅0.16%，报4,473.75点；纳斯达克综合指数上涨20.40点，即0.13%，至15,181.92点。</blockquote></p><p> Eight of the 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P 500 ended lower, with materials suffering the largest percentage drop.</p><p><blockquote>标普500 11大板块中有8个板块收跌，材料板块跌幅最大。</blockquote></p><p> The consumer discretionary spending sector posted the biggest gain, with Amazon.com doing the heavy lifting.</p><p><blockquote>非必需消费品支出板块涨幅最大，亚马逊首当其冲。</blockquote></p><p> Apparel company Gap Inc gained 1.6%. Online marketplace Etsy Inc and luxury accessory company Tapestry Inc rose 3.1% and 1.9%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>服装公司Gap Inc上涨1.6%。在线市场Etsy Inc和奢侈品配饰公司Tapestry Inc分别上涨3.1%和1.9%。</blockquote></p><p> Ford Motor Co rose 1.4% after it announced plans to boost production of its F-150 electric pickup model.</p><p><blockquote>福特汽车公司股价上涨1.4%，此前该公司宣布计划提高F-150电动皮卡车型的产量。</blockquote></p><p> Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.27-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.06-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌股与上涨股的比例为1.27比1；在纳斯达克，1.06比1的比率有利于上涨者。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted nine new 52-week highs and one new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 82 new highs and 94 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下9个52周新高和1个新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得82个新高和94个新低。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 9.37 billion shares, compared with the 9.44 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所成交量为93.7亿股，而过去20个交易日的平均成交量为94.4亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/us-stocks-sp-ends-modestly-lower-as-rising-treasury-yields-offset-robust-retail-data-idUSL1N2QI2MB\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/us-stocks-sp-ends-modestly-lower-as-rising-treasury-yields-offset-robust-retail-data-idUSL1N2QI2MB","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105376345","content_text":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 ended slightly down on Thursday, paring losses in late trading after unexpectedly strong retail sales data underscored the strength of the U.S. economic recovery.\nThe three major indexes spent much of the day in negative territory as rising U.S. Treasury yields pressured market-leading tech stocks, and the rising dollar weighed on exporters.\nAmazon.com Inc, buoyed by solid online sales in the Commerce Department’s report, helped push the Nasdaq into positive territory.\n“Looking at today, clearly we had positive news from retail sales and it looks as if the massive slowdown in the economy is not materializing as a lot of people expected,” said Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist at LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina.\n“It’s a nice reminder that the economy is still taking two steps forward for each step back even amid the COVID concerns,” Detrick added.\nEconomically sensitive transports and microchips were among the outperformers.\nData released before the opening bell showed an unexpected bump in retail sales as shoppers weathered Hurricane Ida and the COVID Delta variant, evidence of resilience in the consumer, who contributes about 70% to U.S. economic growth.\n“Once again, it shows the U.S. consumer continues to spend and continues to help this economy grow,” Detrick said.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 63.07 points, or 0.18%, to 34,751.32; the S&P 500 lost 6.95 points, or 0.16%, at 4,473.75; and the Nasdaq Composite added 20.40 points, or 0.13%, at 15,181.92.\nEight of the 11 major sectors in the S&P 500 ended lower, with materials suffering the largest percentage drop.\nThe consumer discretionary spending sector posted the biggest gain, with Amazon.com doing the heavy lifting.\nApparel company Gap Inc gained 1.6%. Online marketplace Etsy Inc and luxury accessory company Tapestry Inc rose 3.1% and 1.9%, respectively.\nFord Motor Co rose 1.4% after it announced plans to boost production of its F-150 electric pickup model.\nDeclining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.27-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.06-to-1 ratio favored advancers.\nThe S&P 500 posted nine new 52-week highs and one new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 82 new highs and 94 new lows.\nVolume on U.S. exchanges was 9.37 billion shares, compared with the 9.44 billion average over the last 20 trading days.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2122,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832149329,"gmtCreate":1629600897661,"gmtModify":1631890499518,"author":{"id":"4091706622349130","authorId":"4091706622349130","name":"Stephenlimmh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36bc849c38db97b89159d04639c780dd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4091706622349130","authorIdStr":"4091706622349130"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832149329","repostId":"1151608193","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151608193","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629728324,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1151608193?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-23 22:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股回调——长期关注这6家公司</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151608193","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correcti","content":"<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iShares半导体ETF较近期高点下跌超过6%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p><p><blockquote>在股市的滚动调整中，芯片制造商受到的打击比大多数制造商都要严重。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&amp;P 500,Nasdaq&nbsp;Composite&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>iShares半导体ETF较近期高点下跌超过6%，而标普500、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为2%或更少。</blockquote></p><p> Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着芯片股值得买入？或者这个历史上周期性的行业是否会故技重施，进入持续下跌趋势，让你大吃一惊。</blockquote></p><p> A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于您的时间表，但如果您喜欢持有多年股票而不是租用几天，那么该集团是值得买入的。主要原因：“这次不一样。”</blockquote></p><p> Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，这些是投资中最可怕的词语之一。但芯片行业已经发生了如此大的变化，现在确实有所不同——这表明它不太可能压垮你。</blockquote></p><p> You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为没有风险，那你就是个傻瓜。我去看看那些。但首先，以下是该组织现在“更安全”的三个主要原因，以及过去几天我与之交谈的六位行业专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.周期性的邪恶女巫死了</b></blockquote></p><p> “Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p><p><blockquote>Impax Asset Management的投资组合经理David Winborne表示：“芯片行业的需求总是由产品周期驱动而繁荣和萧条。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>个人电脑，然后是服务器，然后是电话。”但他表示，现在整个经济对芯片的需求已经扩大，因此长期增长情况更加可预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>看看你周围。由于我们的生活和工作日益“数字化”，从各个角度来看，终端市场需求更加多样化。将远程办公服务视为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>看好该集团的Gabelli Funds投资组合经理兼科技分析师Hendi Susanto指出，在线购物、云服务、电动汽车、5G手机、智能工厂、大数据计算甚至洗衣机。</blockquote></p><p> “There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool芯片行业分析师John Rotonti表示：“现代数字经济的任何方面都离不开半导体。”“这意味着更多的芯片进入所有领域。长期需求是存在的。”</blockquote></p><p> He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William&nbsp;Blair&nbsp;analyst Greg Scolaro.</p><p><blockquote>他不是在开玩笑。William Blair分析师Greg Scolaro预测，到2030年，芯片行业的收入将从2020年的4650亿美元翻一番，达到1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着你所听到的普遍供应短缺“可能要到明年年底才能得到解决”，他说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>芯片行业分析师Vivek Arya。“这不仅仅是我们的观点，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>得到了大多数大客户的确认。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.玩家已经巩固</b></blockquote></p><p> All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p><p><blockquote>在生产链的上上下下，从设计到各种类型的设备生产商再到制造，行业参与者已经整合到罗通蒂·评级“赢得”的双头垄断或垄断中。</blockquote></p><p> In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems&nbsp;and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML&nbsp;in extreme ultraviolet lithography&nbsp;(EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor&nbsp;and Samsung Electronics.</p><p><blockquote>在芯片设计软件中，有Cadence Design Systems和Synopsys。在生产设备方面，公司在极紫外光刻（EUV）领域的ASML等专业领域占据主导地位。制造业由台积电和三星电子主导。</blockquote></p><p> These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司通过在他们所做的事情上做到最好来赢得他们的利基或双头垄断地位。这使得投资者对它们很感兴趣。罗通蒂表示，整合还意味着参与者在定价和产能方面表现得更加理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、盈利能力有所提升</b></blockquote></p><p> This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p><p><blockquote>这种更加理性的行为，加上成本削减，意味着现在的盈利能力远高于历史水平。“过去几年，芯片制造的经济性有了很大改善，”温伯恩说。现金流或EBITDA利润率现在通常超过30%，而十年前还在20%左右。</blockquote></p><p> This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere &amp; Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p><p><blockquote>这对估值有影响。Villere&amp;Co.的投资组合经理Lamar Villere指出，尽管芯片股的交易价格约为市场倍数，但它们看起来很便宜，因为它们是更好的公司。“他们的市盈率并不是泡沫。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The stocks to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>值得购买的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我最近调查的芯片专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New management plays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新的管理策略</b></blockquote></p><p> Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm&nbsp;and ON Semiconductor.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Thrivent的高级股票研究分析师Peter Karazeris有理由对该集团持谨慎态度（见下文），但他特别指出了两家公司，它们的业绩可能会因为在新管理层的领导下而得到提振：高通和安森美半导体。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p><p><blockquote>两者都具有稳健的盈利能力。高通最近受到了一次性问题的打击，例如德克萨斯州的恶劣天气导致生产中断，但该公司对5G手机趋势有很好的了解。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">安森美半导体</a>正在从手机扩展到汽车、工业和物联网互联设备领域等新领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A data center and gaming play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据中心和游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p><p><blockquote>Karazeris还特别提到了Nvidia，该公司因其卓越的设计能力而从数据中心和游戏设备芯片需求中获得持续增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Design tool companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>设计工具公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p><p><blockquote>说到设计，当像高通和英伟达这样的公司想要设计芯片时，他们会求助于Cadence Design Systems提供的设计工具和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">新思科技</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool的Rotonti解释说，他们基于软件的设计工具帮助芯片创新者为他们的芯片创建蓝图，他挑出了这些名字。“他们不是世界上最快的种植者，但他们有很好的利润率。”他们也主宰着这个空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An EUV&nbsp;play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EUV播放</b></blockquote></p><p> To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>为了在芯片生产的早期阶段将这些蓝图放在硅上，台积电和三星等公司转向ASML。它的机器使用微小的光脉冲将芯片设计模板到硅片上，这一过程被称为极紫外光刻。“没有人知道如何做到这一点，”罗通蒂说。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它在供应做到这一点的机器方面拥有垄断地位——这对于任何想要制造领先芯片的公司来说都是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p><p><blockquote>以下是芯片行业投资者需要关注的一些主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oversupply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供应过剩</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p><p><blockquote>芯片生产已经政治化。美国希望在国内生产更多产品，这样就不会受到中国供应链中断的影响。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>Winborne表示，希望到2025年生产70%的芯片，高于目前的5%。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p><p><blockquote>这里的结果是，有大量的政府支持来促进制造业——所以会有更多的支持。风险在于未来某个时候供应过剩。这也可能会推动芯片设备的购买，导致未来的平静，这可能会损害设备制造商的销售和利润趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple&nbsp;and Ammazon.com&nbsp;are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，像Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊这样的大型科技公司都在做自己的芯片设计，这威胁到了做同样事情的专业芯片公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">量子的</a>计算机的</b></blockquote></p><p> Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p><p><blockquote>William Blair的Scolaro指出，使用基于量子物理学的芯片设计而不是传统半导体架构的计算机具有卓越的性能。“虽然量子计算可能至少在未来五年内不会成为主流，但它有潜力改变从技术到医疗保健的一切。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A disturbing signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>令人不安的信号</b></blockquote></p><p> A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>全球采购经理人指数（PMI）在4月份达到顶峰，然后连续三个月减速。与此同时，芯片销售持续增长。在Thrivent跟踪这一指标的Karazeris指出，通常情况下，两者遵循相同的趋势。他将这种差异归因于库存建设，而库存建设的可持续性不如真实的终端市场需求。因此，他将这种背离视为芯片行业的看跌信号。</blockquote></p><p> Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory&nbsp;(DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p><p><blockquote>另一个警告信号来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片定价的预测疲软。“这些通常是你在周期顶部而不是底部看到的事情，”卡拉泽里斯说。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>但全球PMI放缓也有可能更多地反映了芯片短缺，而不是表明短缺并不真实（只是库存增加）。Leuthold经济学家兼策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)表示：“这种分歧并不一定意味着芯片订单会滚动并死亡。这意味着芯片制造业必须迎头赶上。”</blockquote></p><p> Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，福特刚刚宣布，由于芯片短缺，而不是潜在需求短缺，它不得不削减产量。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预测，由于高储蓄率、就业和收入反弹以及被压抑的大件商品需求等因素，良好的经济增长是可持续的。如果他是对的，持续的经济实力将支持对所有使用芯片的产品的需求——包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股回调——长期关注这6家公司</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股回调——长期关注这6家公司</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-23 22:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iShares半导体ETF较近期高点下跌超过6%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p><p><blockquote>在股市的滚动调整中，芯片制造商受到的打击比大多数制造商都要严重。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&amp;P 500,Nasdaq&nbsp;Composite&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>iShares半导体ETF较近期高点下跌超过6%，而标普500、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为2%或更少。</blockquote></p><p> Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着芯片股值得买入？或者这个历史上周期性的行业是否会故技重施，进入持续下跌趋势，让你大吃一惊。</blockquote></p><p> A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于您的时间表，但如果您喜欢持有多年股票而不是租用几天，那么该集团是值得买入的。主要原因：“这次不一样。”</blockquote></p><p> Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，这些是投资中最可怕的词语之一。但芯片行业已经发生了如此大的变化，现在确实有所不同——这表明它不太可能压垮你。</blockquote></p><p> You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为没有风险，那你就是个傻瓜。我去看看那些。但首先，以下是该组织现在“更安全”的三个主要原因，以及过去几天我与之交谈的六位行业专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.周期性的邪恶女巫死了</b></blockquote></p><p> “Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p><p><blockquote>Impax Asset Management的投资组合经理David Winborne表示：“芯片行业的需求总是由产品周期驱动而繁荣和萧条。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>个人电脑，然后是服务器，然后是电话。”但他表示，现在整个经济对芯片的需求已经扩大，因此长期增长情况更加可预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>看看你周围。由于我们的生活和工作日益“数字化”，从各个角度来看，终端市场需求更加多样化。将远程办公服务视为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>看好该集团的Gabelli Funds投资组合经理兼科技分析师Hendi Susanto指出，在线购物、云服务、电动汽车、5G手机、智能工厂、大数据计算甚至洗衣机。</blockquote></p><p> “There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool芯片行业分析师John Rotonti表示：“现代数字经济的任何方面都离不开半导体。”“这意味着更多的芯片进入所有领域。长期需求是存在的。”</blockquote></p><p> He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William&nbsp;Blair&nbsp;analyst Greg Scolaro.</p><p><blockquote>他不是在开玩笑。William Blair分析师Greg Scolaro预测，到2030年，芯片行业的收入将从2020年的4650亿美元翻一番，达到1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着你所听到的普遍供应短缺“可能要到明年年底才能得到解决”，他说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>芯片行业分析师Vivek Arya。“这不仅仅是我们的观点，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>得到了大多数大客户的确认。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.玩家已经巩固</b></blockquote></p><p> All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p><p><blockquote>在生产链的上上下下，从设计到各种类型的设备生产商再到制造，行业参与者已经整合到罗通蒂·评级“赢得”的双头垄断或垄断中。</blockquote></p><p> In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems&nbsp;and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML&nbsp;in extreme ultraviolet lithography&nbsp;(EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor&nbsp;and Samsung Electronics.</p><p><blockquote>在芯片设计软件中，有Cadence Design Systems和Synopsys。在生产设备方面，公司在极紫外光刻（EUV）领域的ASML等专业领域占据主导地位。制造业由台积电和三星电子主导。</blockquote></p><p> These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司通过在他们所做的事情上做到最好来赢得他们的利基或双头垄断地位。这使得投资者对它们很感兴趣。罗通蒂表示，整合还意味着参与者在定价和产能方面表现得更加理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、盈利能力有所提升</b></blockquote></p><p> This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p><p><blockquote>这种更加理性的行为，加上成本削减，意味着现在的盈利能力远高于历史水平。“过去几年，芯片制造的经济性有了很大改善，”温伯恩说。现金流或EBITDA利润率现在通常超过30%，而十年前还在20%左右。</blockquote></p><p> This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere &amp; Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p><p><blockquote>这对估值有影响。Villere&amp;Co.的投资组合经理Lamar Villere指出，尽管芯片股的交易价格约为市场倍数，但它们看起来很便宜，因为它们是更好的公司。“他们的市盈率并不是泡沫。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The stocks to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>值得购买的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我最近调查的芯片专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New management plays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新的管理策略</b></blockquote></p><p> Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm&nbsp;and ON Semiconductor.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Thrivent的高级股票研究分析师Peter Karazeris有理由对该集团持谨慎态度（见下文），但他特别指出了两家公司，它们的业绩可能会因为在新管理层的领导下而得到提振：高通和安森美半导体。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p><p><blockquote>两者都具有稳健的盈利能力。高通最近受到了一次性问题的打击，例如德克萨斯州的恶劣天气导致生产中断，但该公司对5G手机趋势有很好的了解。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">安森美半导体</a>正在从手机扩展到汽车、工业和物联网互联设备领域等新领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A data center and gaming play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据中心和游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p><p><blockquote>Karazeris还特别提到了Nvidia，该公司因其卓越的设计能力而从数据中心和游戏设备芯片需求中获得持续增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Design tool companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>设计工具公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p><p><blockquote>说到设计，当像高通和英伟达这样的公司想要设计芯片时，他们会求助于Cadence Design Systems提供的设计工具和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">新思科技</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool的Rotonti解释说，他们基于软件的设计工具帮助芯片创新者为他们的芯片创建蓝图，他挑出了这些名字。“他们不是世界上最快的种植者，但他们有很好的利润率。”他们也主宰着这个空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An EUV&nbsp;play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EUV播放</b></blockquote></p><p> To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>为了在芯片生产的早期阶段将这些蓝图放在硅上，台积电和三星等公司转向ASML。它的机器使用微小的光脉冲将芯片设计模板到硅片上，这一过程被称为极紫外光刻。“没有人知道如何做到这一点，”罗通蒂说。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它在供应做到这一点的机器方面拥有垄断地位——这对于任何想要制造领先芯片的公司来说都是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p><p><blockquote>以下是芯片行业投资者需要关注的一些主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oversupply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供应过剩</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p><p><blockquote>芯片生产已经政治化。美国希望在国内生产更多产品，这样就不会受到中国供应链中断的影响。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>Winborne表示，希望到2025年生产70%的芯片，高于目前的5%。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p><p><blockquote>这里的结果是，有大量的政府支持来促进制造业——所以会有更多的支持。风险在于未来某个时候供应过剩。这也可能会推动芯片设备的购买，导致未来的平静，这可能会损害设备制造商的销售和利润趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple&nbsp;and Ammazon.com&nbsp;are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，像Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊这样的大型科技公司都在做自己的芯片设计，这威胁到了做同样事情的专业芯片公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">量子的</a>计算机的</b></blockquote></p><p> Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p><p><blockquote>William Blair的Scolaro指出，使用基于量子物理学的芯片设计而不是传统半导体架构的计算机具有卓越的性能。“虽然量子计算可能至少在未来五年内不会成为主流，但它有潜力改变从技术到医疗保健的一切。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A disturbing signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>令人不安的信号</b></blockquote></p><p> A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>全球采购经理人指数（PMI）在4月份达到顶峰，然后连续三个月减速。与此同时，芯片销售持续增长。在Thrivent跟踪这一指标的Karazeris指出，通常情况下，两者遵循相同的趋势。他将这种差异归因于库存建设，而库存建设的可持续性不如真实的终端市场需求。因此，他将这种背离视为芯片行业的看跌信号。</blockquote></p><p> Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory&nbsp;(DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p><p><blockquote>另一个警告信号来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片定价的预测疲软。“这些通常是你在周期顶部而不是底部看到的事情，”卡拉泽里斯说。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>但全球PMI放缓也有可能更多地反映了芯片短缺，而不是表明短缺并不真实（只是库存增加）。Leuthold经济学家兼策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)表示：“这种分歧并不一定意味着芯片订单会滚动并死亡。这意味着芯片制造业必须迎头赶上。”</blockquote></p><p> Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，福特刚刚宣布，由于芯片短缺，而不是潜在需求短缺，它不得不削减产量。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预测，由于高储蓄率、就业和收入反弹以及被压抑的大件商品需求等因素，良好的经济增长是可持续的。如果他是对的，持续的经济实力将支持对所有使用芯片的产品的需求——包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SOXX":"iShares费城交易所半导体ETF","GOOGL":"谷歌A","GOOG":"谷歌","SNPS":"新思科技","TSM":"台积电","AAPL":"苹果","NVDA":"英伟达","SSNLF":"三星电子","ON":"安森美半导体","CDNS":"铿腾电子","AMZN":"亚马逊","ASML":"阿斯麦","QCOM":"高通"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151608193","content_text":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.\nThe iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&P 500,Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.\nDoes that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.\nA lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”\nThose are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.\nYou’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.\n1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead\n“Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “First PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.\nJust look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like Zoom, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.\n“There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”\nHe’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William Blair analyst Greg Scolaro.\nAll of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says Bank of America chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but one confirmed by a majority of large customers.”\n2. The players have consolidated\nAll up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.\nIn chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML in extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung Electronics.\nThese companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.\n3. Profitability has improved\nThis more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.\nThis has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere & Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”\nThe stocks to buy\nHere are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.\nNew management plays\nThough Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm and ON Semiconductor.\nBoth have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. ON Semiconductor is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.\nA data center and gaming play\nKarazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.\nDesign tool companies\nSpeaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.\nTheir software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.\nAn EUV play\nTo put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.\nIn other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.\nRisks\nHere are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.\nOversupply\nChip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. China wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.\nThe upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.\nNext, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple and Ammazon.com are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.\nQuantum computing\nComputers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”\nA disturbing signal\nA blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.\nAnother cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.\nBut it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.\nFord,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.\nPaulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including Ford cars.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QCOM":0.9,"CDNS":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9,"ON":0.9,"SSNLF":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"ASML":0.9,"SNPS":0.9,"SOXX":0.9,"TSM":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"NVDA":0.9,"GOOG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1432,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831776729,"gmtCreate":1629354648661,"gmtModify":1631890499539,"author":{"id":"4091706622349130","authorId":"4091706622349130","name":"Stephenlimmh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36bc849c38db97b89159d04639c780dd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4091706622349130","authorIdStr":"4091706622349130"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Know knowns, known unknowns, unknown unknowns","listText":"Know knowns, known unknowns, unknown unknowns","text":"Know knowns, known unknowns, unknown unknowns","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831776729","repostId":"1181909905","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181909905","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629332628,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181909905?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-19 08:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla AI Day Is Thursday. Why It’s a Big Day for the Stock.<blockquote>特斯拉人工智能日是周四。为什么今天是该股的大日子。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181909905","media":"Barrons","summary":"Former defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld said there are known knowns—things people know—known unknowns—things people know they don’t know—and unknown unknowns—things people don’t realize they don’t know. That pretty much sums up autonomous driving technology these days.It isn’t clear how long it will take the auto industry to deliver truly self-driving cars. Thursday evening, however, investors will get an education about what’s state of the art when Tesla  hosts its artificial intelligence day.","content":"<p>Former defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld said there are known knowns—things people know—known unknowns—things people know they don’t know—and unknown unknowns—things people don’t realize they don’t know. That pretty much sums up autonomous driving technology these days.</p><p><blockquote>前国防部长唐纳德·拉姆斯菲尔德说，有已知的已知——人们知道的事情——已知的未知——人们知道他们不知道的事情——和未知的未知——人们没有意识到他们不知道的事情。这几乎概括了当今的自动驾驶技术。</blockquote></p><p> It isn’t clear how long it will take the auto industry to deliver truly self-driving cars. Thursday evening, however, investors will get an education about what’s state of the art when Tesla (ticker: TSLA) hosts its artificial intelligence day.</p><p><blockquote>目前尚不清楚汽车行业需要多长时间才能交付真正的自动驾驶汽车。然而，周四晚上，当特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）举办人工智能日时，投资者将接受有关最先进技术的教育。</blockquote></p><p> The event will likely be livestreamed on the company’s website beginning around 5 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. A link to the webcast isn’t available yet. The company didn’t respond to a request for comment about the agenda for the event.</p><p><blockquote>该活动可能会在下午5点左右开始在公司网站上进行直播。东部标准时间。网络广播的链接尚不可用。该公司没有回应对活动议程置评的请求。</blockquote></p><p> Much of what will get talked about won’t be a surprise, even if investors don’t understand it all. Those are known unknowns.</p><p><blockquote>即使投资者并不完全理解，人们谈论的大部分内容也不会令人惊讶。这些都是已知的未知。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla should update investors about its driver assistance feature dubbed full self driving. What’s more, the company will describe the benefit of vertical integration. Tesla makes the hardware—its own computers with its own microchips—and its software. Tesla might even give a more definitive timeline for when Level 4 autonomous vehicles will be ready.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉应该向投资者通报其被称为全自动驾驶的驾驶员辅助功能的最新情况。更重要的是，该公司将描述垂直整合的好处。特斯拉制造硬件——带有自己微芯片的计算机——和软件。特斯拉甚至可能给出一个更明确的时间表，说明4级自动驾驶汽车何时准备就绪。</blockquote></p><p> Roth Capital analyst&nbsp;Craig Irwin&nbsp;doesn’t believe Level 4 technology is on the horizon though. He tells<i>Barron’s</i>the computing power and camera resolution just isn’t there yet. “Tesla will work hard to suggest tech leadership in AI for automotive,” says Irwin. “Reality will probably be much less exciting than their claims.”</p><p><blockquote>不过，Roth Capital分析师Craig Irwin并不认为4级技术即将出现。他告诉<i>巴伦周刊</i>计算能力和相机分辨率还不存在。“特斯拉将努力展示汽车人工智能领域的技术领先地位，”欧文说。“现实可能远没有他们的说法那么令人兴奋。”</blockquote></p><p> Irwin rates Tesla shares Hold. His price target is just $150 a share.</p><p><blockquote>欧文将特斯拉股票评级为持有。他的目标价仅为每股150美元。</blockquote></p><p> The car industry essentially defines&nbsp;five levels of autonomous driving. Level 1 is nothing more than cruise control. Level 2 systems are available on cars today and combine features such as adaptive cruise and lane-keeping assistance, enabling the car to do a lot on its own. Drivers, however, still need to pay attention 100% of the time with Level 2 systems.</p><p><blockquote>汽车行业基本上定义了五个级别的自动驾驶。1级无非就是定速巡航。2级系统现在可以在汽车上使用，它结合了自适应巡航和车道保持辅助等功能，使汽车能够自己做很多事情。然而，使用2级系统，驾驶员仍然需要100%的时间集中注意力。</blockquote></p><p> Level 3 systems would allow drivers to stop paying attention part of the time. Level 4 would let them stop paying attention most of the time. And Level 5 means the car does everything always. “Level 5 autonomy isn’t an easy endeavor,” says Global X analyst&nbsp;Pedro Palandrani. There are so many unique cases for technology to tackle, like in bad weather or dirt roads. “But level 4 is enough to change the world.” he added. He is more optimistic than Irwin about the timing for Level 4 systems and hopes Tesla provides more timing detail at its event.</p><p><blockquote>3级系统将允许驾驶员在部分时间停止注意力。第四级会让他们在大部分时间里停止注意力。5级意味着汽车总是做所有事情。Global X分析师Pedro Palandrani表示：“5级自治并不是一件容易的事。”技术需要解决许多独特的情况，例如恶劣天气或土路。“但四级足以改变世界。”他补充道。他对4级系统的时间安排比欧文更乐观，并希望特斯拉在活动中提供更多的时间细节。</blockquote></p><p> Beyond a technology run down and level 4 timing, the company might have some surprises up its sleeve for investors. Palandrani has two ideas.</p><p><blockquote>除了技术故障和4级时机之外，该公司可能会给投资者带来一些惊喜。帕兰德拉尼有两个想法。</blockquote></p><p> For starters, Tesla might indicate it’s willing to sell its hardware and software to other car companies. That would give Tesla other unexpected, sources of income. Tesla already offers its full self driving as a monthly subscription to owners of its cars. That’s new for the car industry and opens up a source of recurring revenue for anyone with the requisite technology. Selling hardware and software to other car companies, however, would be new, and surprising, for investors.</p><p><blockquote>首先，特斯拉可能会表示愿意将其硬件和软件出售给其他汽车公司。这将给特斯拉带来其他意想不到的收入来源。特斯拉已经向车主提供全自动驾驶服务，按月订阅。这对于汽车行业来说是新鲜事，并为任何拥有必要技术的人开辟了经常性收入来源。然而，对于投资者来说，向其他汽车公司出售硬件和软件将是新鲜事，也是令人惊讶的。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla might also talk about its advancements in robotics. CEO&nbsp;Elon Musk&nbsp;has talked often in the past about the difficulty of making the machine that makes the machine. Some of Tesla’s AI efforts might also be targeted at building, and not just driving, vehicles. “We’re just making a crazy amount of machinery internally,” said Musk on the company’s second-quarter conference call. “This is….not well understood.”</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉也可能会谈论其在机器人技术方面的进步。首席执行官埃隆·马斯克过去经常谈到制造制造机器的机器的困难。特斯拉的一些人工智能努力也可能针对制造而不仅仅是驾驶车辆。“我们只是在内部制造了数量惊人的机械，”Musk在谈到公司第二季度电话会议时表示。“这……不太明白。”</blockquote></p><p> Those are two items that can surprise. Whether they, or other tidbits, will move the stock is something else entirely.</p><p><blockquote>这两件事可能会令人惊讶。他们或其他花絮是否会影响股票完全是另一回事。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock dropped about 7% over Monday and Tuesday partly because NHTSA disclosed it was&nbsp;looking into accidents&nbsp;involving Tesla’s driver assistance features. Tesla will surely stress the safety benefits of driver assistance features on Thursday, whether it can shake off that bit of bad news though is harder to tell.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价周一和周二下跌约7%，部分原因是NHTSA透露正在调查涉及特斯拉驾驶员辅助功能的事故。特斯拉周四肯定会强调驾驶员辅助功能的安全优势，但它是否能摆脱这一坏消息还很难说。</blockquote></p><p> “Thursday becomes a much more important event in light of this week’s [NHTSA] probe,” says Wedbush analyst&nbsp;Dan Ives. “This week has been another tough week for Tesla [stock] and the Street needs some good news heading into this AI event.”</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush分析师丹·艾夫斯(Dan Ives)表示：“鉴于本周[NHTSA]的调查，周四成为一个更加重要的事件。”“对于特斯拉[股票]来说，本周又是艰难的一周，华尔街需要一些好消息来迎接这场人工智能盛会。”</blockquote></p><p> Ives rates Tesla shares Buy and has a $1,000 price target for the stock. Tesla’s autonomous driving leadership is part of his bullish take on shares.</p><p><blockquote>Ives将特斯拉股票评级为买入，并将该股目标价定为1,000美元。特斯拉在自动驾驶方面的领导地位是他看涨股票的一部分。</blockquote></p><p> If history is any guide investors should expect volatility. Tesla stock dropped 10% the day following its&nbsp;battery technology eventi&nbsp;n September 2020. It took shares about seven trading days to recover, and Tesla stock gained about 86% from the battery event to year-end.</p><p><blockquote>如果以史为鉴，投资者应该预料到波动性。2020年9月电池技术活动后的第二天，特斯拉股价下跌10%。股价花了大约7个交易日才恢复，从电池事件到年底，特斯拉股价上涨了约86%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Tesla stock is down about 6% year to date, trailing behind the 18% and 15% comparable, respective gains of the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;and&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average.Tesla stock hasn’t moved much, in absolute terms, since March. Shares were in the high $600s back then. They closed down 3% at $665.71 on Tuesday, but rose 3.5% at $688.99 on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价今年迄今已下跌约6%，落后于标准普尔500指数和道琼斯工业平均指数分别18%和15%的可比涨幅。自3月份以来，特斯拉股价的绝对值没有太大变动。当时股价高达600美元。周二收盘下跌3%，至665.71美元，但周三上涨3.5%，至688.99美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla AI Day Is Thursday. Why It’s a Big Day for the Stock.<blockquote>特斯拉人工智能日是周四。为什么今天是该股的大日子。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla AI Day Is Thursday. Why It’s a Big Day for the Stock.<blockquote>特斯拉人工智能日是周四。为什么今天是该股的大日子。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-19 08:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Former defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld said there are known knowns—things people know—known unknowns—things people know they don’t know—and unknown unknowns—things people don’t realize they don’t know. That pretty much sums up autonomous driving technology these days.</p><p><blockquote>前国防部长唐纳德·拉姆斯菲尔德说，有已知的已知——人们知道的事情——已知的未知——人们知道他们不知道的事情——和未知的未知——人们没有意识到他们不知道的事情。这几乎概括了当今的自动驾驶技术。</blockquote></p><p> It isn’t clear how long it will take the auto industry to deliver truly self-driving cars. Thursday evening, however, investors will get an education about what’s state of the art when Tesla (ticker: TSLA) hosts its artificial intelligence day.</p><p><blockquote>目前尚不清楚汽车行业需要多长时间才能交付真正的自动驾驶汽车。然而，周四晚上，当特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）举办人工智能日时，投资者将接受有关最先进技术的教育。</blockquote></p><p> The event will likely be livestreamed on the company’s website beginning around 5 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. A link to the webcast isn’t available yet. The company didn’t respond to a request for comment about the agenda for the event.</p><p><blockquote>该活动可能会在下午5点左右开始在公司网站上进行直播。东部标准时间。网络广播的链接尚不可用。该公司没有回应对活动议程置评的请求。</blockquote></p><p> Much of what will get talked about won’t be a surprise, even if investors don’t understand it all. Those are known unknowns.</p><p><blockquote>即使投资者并不完全理解，人们谈论的大部分内容也不会令人惊讶。这些都是已知的未知。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla should update investors about its driver assistance feature dubbed full self driving. What’s more, the company will describe the benefit of vertical integration. Tesla makes the hardware—its own computers with its own microchips—and its software. Tesla might even give a more definitive timeline for when Level 4 autonomous vehicles will be ready.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉应该向投资者通报其被称为全自动驾驶的驾驶员辅助功能的最新情况。更重要的是，该公司将描述垂直整合的好处。特斯拉制造硬件——带有自己微芯片的计算机——和软件。特斯拉甚至可能给出一个更明确的时间表，说明4级自动驾驶汽车何时准备就绪。</blockquote></p><p> Roth Capital analyst&nbsp;Craig Irwin&nbsp;doesn’t believe Level 4 technology is on the horizon though. He tells<i>Barron’s</i>the computing power and camera resolution just isn’t there yet. “Tesla will work hard to suggest tech leadership in AI for automotive,” says Irwin. “Reality will probably be much less exciting than their claims.”</p><p><blockquote>不过，Roth Capital分析师Craig Irwin并不认为4级技术即将出现。他告诉<i>巴伦周刊</i>计算能力和相机分辨率还不存在。“特斯拉将努力展示汽车人工智能领域的技术领先地位，”欧文说。“现实可能远没有他们的说法那么令人兴奋。”</blockquote></p><p> Irwin rates Tesla shares Hold. His price target is just $150 a share.</p><p><blockquote>欧文将特斯拉股票评级为持有。他的目标价仅为每股150美元。</blockquote></p><p> The car industry essentially defines&nbsp;five levels of autonomous driving. Level 1 is nothing more than cruise control. Level 2 systems are available on cars today and combine features such as adaptive cruise and lane-keeping assistance, enabling the car to do a lot on its own. Drivers, however, still need to pay attention 100% of the time with Level 2 systems.</p><p><blockquote>汽车行业基本上定义了五个级别的自动驾驶。1级无非就是定速巡航。2级系统现在可以在汽车上使用，它结合了自适应巡航和车道保持辅助等功能，使汽车能够自己做很多事情。然而，使用2级系统，驾驶员仍然需要100%的时间集中注意力。</blockquote></p><p> Level 3 systems would allow drivers to stop paying attention part of the time. Level 4 would let them stop paying attention most of the time. And Level 5 means the car does everything always. “Level 5 autonomy isn’t an easy endeavor,” says Global X analyst&nbsp;Pedro Palandrani. There are so many unique cases for technology to tackle, like in bad weather or dirt roads. “But level 4 is enough to change the world.” he added. He is more optimistic than Irwin about the timing for Level 4 systems and hopes Tesla provides more timing detail at its event.</p><p><blockquote>3级系统将允许驾驶员在部分时间停止注意力。第四级会让他们在大部分时间里停止注意力。5级意味着汽车总是做所有事情。Global X分析师Pedro Palandrani表示：“5级自治并不是一件容易的事。”技术需要解决许多独特的情况，例如恶劣天气或土路。“但四级足以改变世界。”他补充道。他对4级系统的时间安排比欧文更乐观，并希望特斯拉在活动中提供更多的时间细节。</blockquote></p><p> Beyond a technology run down and level 4 timing, the company might have some surprises up its sleeve for investors. Palandrani has two ideas.</p><p><blockquote>除了技术故障和4级时机之外，该公司可能会给投资者带来一些惊喜。帕兰德拉尼有两个想法。</blockquote></p><p> For starters, Tesla might indicate it’s willing to sell its hardware and software to other car companies. That would give Tesla other unexpected, sources of income. Tesla already offers its full self driving as a monthly subscription to owners of its cars. That’s new for the car industry and opens up a source of recurring revenue for anyone with the requisite technology. Selling hardware and software to other car companies, however, would be new, and surprising, for investors.</p><p><blockquote>首先，特斯拉可能会表示愿意将其硬件和软件出售给其他汽车公司。这将给特斯拉带来其他意想不到的收入来源。特斯拉已经向车主提供全自动驾驶服务，按月订阅。这对于汽车行业来说是新鲜事，并为任何拥有必要技术的人开辟了经常性收入来源。然而，对于投资者来说，向其他汽车公司出售硬件和软件将是新鲜事，也是令人惊讶的。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla might also talk about its advancements in robotics. CEO&nbsp;Elon Musk&nbsp;has talked often in the past about the difficulty of making the machine that makes the machine. Some of Tesla’s AI efforts might also be targeted at building, and not just driving, vehicles. “We’re just making a crazy amount of machinery internally,” said Musk on the company’s second-quarter conference call. “This is….not well understood.”</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉也可能会谈论其在机器人技术方面的进步。首席执行官埃隆·马斯克过去经常谈到制造制造机器的机器的困难。特斯拉的一些人工智能努力也可能针对制造而不仅仅是驾驶车辆。“我们只是在内部制造了数量惊人的机械，”Musk在谈到公司第二季度电话会议时表示。“这……不太明白。”</blockquote></p><p> Those are two items that can surprise. Whether they, or other tidbits, will move the stock is something else entirely.</p><p><blockquote>这两件事可能会令人惊讶。他们或其他花絮是否会影响股票完全是另一回事。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock dropped about 7% over Monday and Tuesday partly because NHTSA disclosed it was&nbsp;looking into accidents&nbsp;involving Tesla’s driver assistance features. Tesla will surely stress the safety benefits of driver assistance features on Thursday, whether it can shake off that bit of bad news though is harder to tell.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价周一和周二下跌约7%，部分原因是NHTSA透露正在调查涉及特斯拉驾驶员辅助功能的事故。特斯拉周四肯定会强调驾驶员辅助功能的安全优势，但它是否能摆脱这一坏消息还很难说。</blockquote></p><p> “Thursday becomes a much more important event in light of this week’s [NHTSA] probe,” says Wedbush analyst&nbsp;Dan Ives. “This week has been another tough week for Tesla [stock] and the Street needs some good news heading into this AI event.”</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush分析师丹·艾夫斯(Dan Ives)表示：“鉴于本周[NHTSA]的调查，周四成为一个更加重要的事件。”“对于特斯拉[股票]来说，本周又是艰难的一周，华尔街需要一些好消息来迎接这场人工智能盛会。”</blockquote></p><p> Ives rates Tesla shares Buy and has a $1,000 price target for the stock. Tesla’s autonomous driving leadership is part of his bullish take on shares.</p><p><blockquote>Ives将特斯拉股票评级为买入，并将该股目标价定为1,000美元。特斯拉在自动驾驶方面的领导地位是他看涨股票的一部分。</blockquote></p><p> If history is any guide investors should expect volatility. Tesla stock dropped 10% the day following its&nbsp;battery technology eventi&nbsp;n September 2020. It took shares about seven trading days to recover, and Tesla stock gained about 86% from the battery event to year-end.</p><p><blockquote>如果以史为鉴，投资者应该预料到波动性。2020年9月电池技术活动后的第二天，特斯拉股价下跌10%。股价花了大约7个交易日才恢复，从电池事件到年底，特斯拉股价上涨了约86%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Tesla stock is down about 6% year to date, trailing behind the 18% and 15% comparable, respective gains of the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;and&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average.Tesla stock hasn’t moved much, in absolute terms, since March. Shares were in the high $600s back then. They closed down 3% at $665.71 on Tuesday, but rose 3.5% at $688.99 on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价今年迄今已下跌约6%，落后于标准普尔500指数和道琼斯工业平均指数分别18%和15%的可比涨幅。自3月份以来，特斯拉股价的绝对值没有太大变动。当时股价高达600美元。周二收盘下跌3%，至665.71美元，但周三上涨3.5%，至688.99美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-ai-day-51629244043?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_1\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-ai-day-51629244043?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181909905","content_text":"Former defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld said there are known knowns—things people know—known unknowns—things people know they don’t know—and unknown unknowns—things people don’t realize they don’t know. That pretty much sums up autonomous driving technology these days.\nIt isn’t clear how long it will take the auto industry to deliver truly self-driving cars. Thursday evening, however, investors will get an education about what’s state of the art when Tesla (ticker: TSLA) hosts its artificial intelligence day.\nThe event will likely be livestreamed on the company’s website beginning around 5 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. A link to the webcast isn’t available yet. The company didn’t respond to a request for comment about the agenda for the event.\nMuch of what will get talked about won’t be a surprise, even if investors don’t understand it all. Those are known unknowns.\nTesla should update investors about its driver assistance feature dubbed full self driving. What’s more, the company will describe the benefit of vertical integration. Tesla makes the hardware—its own computers with its own microchips—and its software. Tesla might even give a more definitive timeline for when Level 4 autonomous vehicles will be ready.\nRoth Capital analyst Craig Irwin doesn’t believe Level 4 technology is on the horizon though. He tellsBarron’sthe computing power and camera resolution just isn’t there yet. “Tesla will work hard to suggest tech leadership in AI for automotive,” says Irwin. “Reality will probably be much less exciting than their claims.”\nIrwin rates Tesla shares Hold. His price target is just $150 a share.\nThe car industry essentially defines five levels of autonomous driving. Level 1 is nothing more than cruise control. Level 2 systems are available on cars today and combine features such as adaptive cruise and lane-keeping assistance, enabling the car to do a lot on its own. Drivers, however, still need to pay attention 100% of the time with Level 2 systems.\nLevel 3 systems would allow drivers to stop paying attention part of the time. Level 4 would let them stop paying attention most of the time. And Level 5 means the car does everything always. “Level 5 autonomy isn’t an easy endeavor,” says Global X analyst Pedro Palandrani. There are so many unique cases for technology to tackle, like in bad weather or dirt roads. “But level 4 is enough to change the world.” he added. He is more optimistic than Irwin about the timing for Level 4 systems and hopes Tesla provides more timing detail at its event.\nBeyond a technology run down and level 4 timing, the company might have some surprises up its sleeve for investors. Palandrani has two ideas.\nFor starters, Tesla might indicate it’s willing to sell its hardware and software to other car companies. That would give Tesla other unexpected, sources of income. Tesla already offers its full self driving as a monthly subscription to owners of its cars. That’s new for the car industry and opens up a source of recurring revenue for anyone with the requisite technology. Selling hardware and software to other car companies, however, would be new, and surprising, for investors.\nTesla might also talk about its advancements in robotics. CEO Elon Musk has talked often in the past about the difficulty of making the machine that makes the machine. Some of Tesla’s AI efforts might also be targeted at building, and not just driving, vehicles. “We’re just making a crazy amount of machinery internally,” said Musk on the company’s second-quarter conference call. “This is….not well understood.”\nThose are two items that can surprise. Whether they, or other tidbits, will move the stock is something else entirely.\nTesla stock dropped about 7% over Monday and Tuesday partly because NHTSA disclosed it was looking into accidents involving Tesla’s driver assistance features. Tesla will surely stress the safety benefits of driver assistance features on Thursday, whether it can shake off that bit of bad news though is harder to tell.\n“Thursday becomes a much more important event in light of this week’s [NHTSA] probe,” says Wedbush analyst Dan Ives. “This week has been another tough week for Tesla [stock] and the Street needs some good news heading into this AI event.”\nIves rates Tesla shares Buy and has a $1,000 price target for the stock. Tesla’s autonomous driving leadership is part of his bullish take on shares.\nIf history is any guide investors should expect volatility. Tesla stock dropped 10% the day following its battery technology eventi n September 2020. It took shares about seven trading days to recover, and Tesla stock gained about 86% from the battery event to year-end.\nTesla stock is down about 6% year to date, trailing behind the 18% and 15% comparable, respective gains of the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average.Tesla stock hasn’t moved much, in absolute terms, since March. Shares were in the high $600s back then. They closed down 3% at $665.71 on Tuesday, but rose 3.5% at $688.99 on Wednesday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1596,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":836106966,"gmtCreate":1629461558255,"gmtModify":1631890499530,"author":{"id":"4091706622349130","authorId":"4091706622349130","name":"Stephenlimmh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36bc849c38db97b89159d04639c780dd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4091706622349130","authorIdStr":"4091706622349130"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh dear","listText":"Oh dear","text":"Oh dear","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/836106966","repostId":"1180272232","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1559,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880216965,"gmtCreate":1631059637457,"gmtModify":1631890400759,"author":{"id":"4091706622349130","authorId":"4091706622349130","name":"Stephenlimmh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36bc849c38db97b89159d04639c780dd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4091706622349130","authorIdStr":"4091706622349130"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Orange","listText":"Orange","text":"Orange","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880216965","repostId":"1129020034","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1521,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839110444,"gmtCreate":1629126065588,"gmtModify":1631890499580,"author":{"id":"4091706622349130","authorId":"4091706622349130","name":"Stephenlimmh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36bc849c38db97b89159d04639c780dd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4091706622349130","authorIdStr":"4091706622349130"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839110444","repostId":"1137961734","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137961734","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1629122094,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137961734?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-16 21:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple shares reached record high at $150.59 in early trading<blockquote>苹果股价早盘触及150.59美元的历史新高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137961734","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(Aug 16)&nbsp;Apple shares reached record high at $150.59 in early trading.","content":"<p>(Aug 16)&nbsp;Apple shares reached record high at $150.59 in early trading.</p><p><blockquote>（8月16日）苹果股价在早盘交易中创下150.59美元的历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2b9a9a385ae4e2c77588a61ab15011b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1868\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple shares reached record high at $150.59 in early trading<blockquote>苹果股价早盘触及150.59美元的历史新高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple shares reached record high at $150.59 in early trading<blockquote>苹果股价早盘触及150.59美元的历史新高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-16 21:54</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Aug 16)&nbsp;Apple shares reached record high at $150.59 in early trading.</p><p><blockquote>（8月16日）苹果股价在早盘交易中创下150.59美元的历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2b9a9a385ae4e2c77588a61ab15011b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1868\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137961734","content_text":"(Aug 16) Apple shares reached record high at $150.59 in early trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2737,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":894872798,"gmtCreate":1628819089314,"gmtModify":1631890499607,"author":{"id":"4091706622349130","authorId":"4091706622349130","name":"Stephenlimmh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36bc849c38db97b89159d04639c780dd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4091706622349130","authorIdStr":"4091706622349130"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Is railway really profitable?","listText":"Is railway really profitable?","text":"Is railway really profitable?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894872798","repostId":"1142689390","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142689390","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628814930,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142689390?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-13 08:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Kansas City Southern sticks with CN Rail, rejects new Canadian Pacific offer<blockquote>堪萨斯城南方铁路公司坚持与加拿大国家铁路公司合作，拒绝加拿大太平洋公司的新报价</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142689390","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Kansas City Southern says its board has determined that the latest unsolicited proposal from Canadia","content":"<p><ul>  <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KSU\">Kansas City Southern</a> says its board has determined that the latest unsolicited proposal from <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CP\">Canadian Pacific Railway</a>&nbsp;does not constitute a superior proposal, and reaffirms its support of a merger with <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNI\">Canadian National Railway</a>.</li>  <li>The company says it will wait for the U.S. Surface Transportation Board to make a ruling on the deal before a shareholder vote.</li>  <li>Earlier this week, CP&nbsp;submitted a new $300/share offer&nbsp;that values KC Southern at $31B.</li>  <li>Under the terms of the Canadian National deal, KC Southern shareholders would receive $200 in cash and 1.129 CN common shares for each KSU common share.</li>  <li>The consensus view points to alikely rejection of the KSU-CNI deal by the STB.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KSU\">堪萨斯城南部</a>表示其董事会已确定最新主动提出的提案<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CP\">加拿大太平洋铁路</a>不构成优越的提议，并重申支持与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNI\">加拿大国家铁路</a>.</li><li>该公司表示，将等待美国地面运输委员会对该交易做出裁决，然后再进行股东投票。</li><li>本周早些时候，CP提交了每股300美元的新报价，对KC Southern的估值为310亿美元。</li><li>根据加拿大国家交易条款，KC Southern股东每股KSU普通股将获得200美元现金和1.129 CN普通股。</li><li>共识观点指出，STB可能会拒绝KSU-CNI交易。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Kansas City Southern sticks with CN Rail, rejects new Canadian Pacific offer<blockquote>堪萨斯城南方铁路公司坚持与加拿大国家铁路公司合作，拒绝加拿大太平洋公司的新报价</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nKansas City Southern sticks with CN Rail, rejects new Canadian Pacific offer<blockquote>堪萨斯城南方铁路公司坚持与加拿大国家铁路公司合作，拒绝加拿大太平洋公司的新报价</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-13 08:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul>  <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KSU\">Kansas City Southern</a> says its board has determined that the latest unsolicited proposal from <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CP\">Canadian Pacific Railway</a>&nbsp;does not constitute a superior proposal, and reaffirms its support of a merger with <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNI\">Canadian National Railway</a>.</li>  <li>The company says it will wait for the U.S. Surface Transportation Board to make a ruling on the deal before a shareholder vote.</li>  <li>Earlier this week, CP&nbsp;submitted a new $300/share offer&nbsp;that values KC Southern at $31B.</li>  <li>Under the terms of the Canadian National deal, KC Southern shareholders would receive $200 in cash and 1.129 CN common shares for each KSU common share.</li>  <li>The consensus view points to alikely rejection of the KSU-CNI deal by the STB.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KSU\">堪萨斯城南部</a>表示其董事会已确定最新主动提出的提案<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CP\">加拿大太平洋铁路</a>不构成优越的提议，并重申支持与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNI\">加拿大国家铁路</a>.</li><li>该公司表示，将等待美国地面运输委员会对该交易做出裁决，然后再进行股东投票。</li><li>本周早些时候，CP提交了每股300美元的新报价，对KC Southern的估值为310亿美元。</li><li>根据加拿大国家交易条款，KC Southern股东每股KSU普通股将获得200美元现金和1.129 CN普通股。</li><li>共识观点指出，STB可能会拒绝KSU-CNI交易。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3730117-kansas-city-southern-sticks-with-cn-rail-rejects-new-canadian-pacific-offer\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"KSU":"堪萨斯南方铁路","CP":"加拿大太平洋铁路","CNI":"加拿大国家铁路"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3730117-kansas-city-southern-sticks-with-cn-rail-rejects-new-canadian-pacific-offer","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142689390","content_text":"Kansas City Southern says its board has determined that the latest unsolicited proposal from Canadian Pacific Railway does not constitute a superior proposal, and reaffirms its support of a merger with Canadian National Railway.\nThe company says it will wait for the U.S. Surface Transportation Board to make a ruling on the deal before a shareholder vote.\nEarlier this week, CP submitted a new $300/share offer that values KC Southern at $31B.\nUnder the terms of the Canadian National deal, KC Southern shareholders would receive $200 in cash and 1.129 CN common shares for each KSU common share.\nThe consensus view points to alikely rejection of the KSU-CNI deal by the STB.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CP":0.9,"KSU":0.9,"CNI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1448,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":895459012,"gmtCreate":1628768215736,"gmtModify":1631892910145,"author":{"id":"4091706622349130","authorId":"4091706622349130","name":"Stephenlimmh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36bc849c38db97b89159d04639c780dd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4091706622349130","authorIdStr":"4091706622349130"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Looks like the dow is not really down","listText":"Looks like the dow is not really down","text":"Looks like the dow is not really down","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/895459012","repostId":"2158254838","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":472,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}