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Stephenlimmh

Stephenlimmh

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2021-09-17

Like please

S&P ends modestly lower as rising Treasury yields offset robust retail data<blockquote>由于国债收益率上升抵消了强劲的零售数据，标准普尔收盘小幅走低</blockquote>

2021-09-08

Orange

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2021-08-22

Ok

Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股的回调——长期关注这 6 家公司</blockquote>

2021-08-20

Oh dear

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2021-08-19

Know knowns, known unknowns, unknown unknowns

Tesla AI Day Is Thursday. Why It’s a Big Day for the Stock.<blockquote>特斯拉人工智能日是周四。为什么今天是该股的重要日子。</blockquote>

2021-08-18

Is it really worth it to buy Tesla over byd?

Tesla Stock Sells off While Institutions Continue to Buy.<blockquote>特斯拉股票遭到抛售，而机构继续买入。</blockquote>

2021-08-17

Nice

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2021-08-16

Nice

Apple shares reached record high at $150.59 in early trading<blockquote>苹果股价早盘创下150.59美元的历史新高</blockquote>

2021-08-15

Maybe 0 maybe 1000

Where Will Virgin Galactic Stock Be In 10 Years?<blockquote>10年后维珍银河股票会在哪里？</blockquote>

2021-08-13

Is railway really profitable?

Kansas City Southern sticks with CN Rail, rejects new Canadian Pacific offer<blockquote>堪萨斯城南方公司坚持与 CN Rail 合作，拒绝加拿大太平洋公司的新报价</blockquote>

2021-08-12

The hackers had a conscience, lol.

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2021-08-12

Looks like the dow is not really down

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please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/884907962","repostId":"1105376345","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105376345","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631833833,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1105376345?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-17 07:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P ends modestly lower as rising Treasury yields offset robust retail data<blockquote>由于国债收益率上升抵消了强劲的零售数据，标准普尔收盘小幅走低</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105376345","media":"Reuters","summary":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 ended slightly down on Thursday, paring losses in late trading afte","content":"<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 ended slightly down on Thursday, paring losses in late trading after unexpectedly strong retail sales data underscored the strength of the U.S. economic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>路透纽约5月28日 - 标普500周四小幅收低，在意外强劲的零售销售数据凸显美国经济复苏的强劲势头后，尾盘收窄跌幅。</blockquote></p><p> The three major indexes spent much of the day in negative territory as rising U.S. Treasury yields pressured market-leading tech stocks, and the rising dollar weighed on exporters.</p><p><blockquote>由于美国国债收益率上升给市场领先的科技股带来压力，以及美元升值给出口商带来压力，三大股指当天大部分时间都处于负值区域。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon.com Inc, buoyed by solid online sales in the Commerce Department’s report, helped push the Nasdaq into positive territory.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊公司在商务部报告中稳健的在线销售提振下，帮助纳斯达克进入正值。</blockquote></p><p> “Looking at today, clearly we had positive news from retail sales and it looks as if the massive slowdown in the economy is not materializing as a lot of people expected,” said Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist at LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina.</p><p><blockquote>“北卡罗来纳州夏洛特市 LPL Financial 高级市场策略师 Ryan Detrick 说：”从今天的情况来看，我们显然收到了零售销售方面的积极消息，而且经济的大幅放缓似乎并没有像许多人预期的那样实现。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s a nice reminder that the economy is still taking two steps forward for each step back even amid the COVID concerns,” Detrick added.</p><p><blockquote>“德特里克补充说：”这很好地提醒我们，即使在 COVID 担忧的情况下，经济仍在每后退一步前进两步。</blockquote></p><p> Economically sensitive transports and microchips were among the outperformers.</p><p><blockquote>对经济敏感的运输和微芯片表现优异。</blockquote></p><p> Data released before the opening bell showed an unexpected bump in retail sales as shoppers weathered Hurricane Ida and the COVID Delta variant, evidence of resilience in the consumer, who contributes about 70% to U.S. economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>开盘前公布的数据显示，随着购物者经受住了飓风艾达和新冠病毒德尔塔变异毒株的考验，零售额意外增长，这证明了消费者的韧性，消费者对美国经济增长的贡献约为70%。</blockquote></p><p> “Once again, it shows the U.S. consumer continues to spend and continues to help this economy grow,” Detrick said.</p><p><blockquote>“德特里克说：”这再次表明美国消费者继续消费，并继续帮助经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 63.07 points, or 0.18%, to 34,751.32; the S&amp;P 500 lost 6.95 points, or 0.16%, at 4,473.75; and the Nasdaq Composite added 20.40 points, or 0.13%, at 15,181.92.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌63.07点，跌幅0.18%，至34,751.32点；标普500下跌 6.95 点，跌幅 0.16%，报 4,473.75 点；纳斯达克综合指数上涨 20.40 点，即 0.13%，至 15,181.92 点。</blockquote></p><p> Eight of the 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P 500 ended lower, with materials suffering the largest percentage drop.</p><p><blockquote>标普500 11个主要板块中有8个板块收盘走低，其中材料板块跌幅最大。</blockquote></p><p> The consumer discretionary spending sector posted the biggest gain, with Amazon.com doing the heavy lifting.</p><p><blockquote>非必需消费品支出行业涨幅最大，其中亚马逊承担了重任。</blockquote></p><p> Apparel company Gap Inc gained 1.6%. Online marketplace Etsy Inc and luxury accessory company Tapestry Inc rose 3.1% and 1.9%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>服装公司 Gap Inc 上涨 1.6%。在线市场 Etsy Inc 和奢侈配饰公司 Tapestry Inc 分别上涨 3.1% 和 1.9%。</blockquote></p><p> Ford Motor Co rose 1.4% after it announced plans to boost production of its F-150 electric pickup model.</p><p><blockquote>福特汽车公司宣布计划提高 F-150 电动皮卡车型的产量，股价上涨 1.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.27-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.06-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌发行量与上涨发行量的比例为 1.27 比 1；在纳斯达克，1.06比1的比率有利于进步人士。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted nine new 52-week highs and one new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 82 new highs and 94 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下9个52周新高和一个新低；纳斯达克综合指数创下82个新高和94个新低。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 9.37 billion shares, compared with the 9.44 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的成交量为 93.7 亿股，而过去 20 个交易日的平均成交量为 94.4 亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P ends modestly lower as rising Treasury yields offset robust retail data<blockquote>由于国债收益率上升抵消了强劲的零售数据，标准普尔收盘小幅走低</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-17 07:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 ended slightly down on Thursday, paring losses in late trading after unexpectedly strong retail sales data underscored the strength of the U.S. economic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>路透纽约5月28日 - 标普500周四小幅收低，在意外强劲的零售销售数据凸显美国经济复苏的强劲势头后，尾盘收窄跌幅。</blockquote></p><p> The three major indexes spent much of the day in negative territory as rising U.S. Treasury yields pressured market-leading tech stocks, and the rising dollar weighed on exporters.</p><p><blockquote>由于美国国债收益率上升给市场领先的科技股带来压力，以及美元升值给出口商带来压力，三大股指当天大部分时间都处于负值区域。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon.com Inc, buoyed by solid online sales in the Commerce Department’s report, helped push the Nasdaq into positive territory.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊公司在商务部报告中稳健的在线销售提振下，帮助纳斯达克进入正值。</blockquote></p><p> “Looking at today, clearly we had positive news from retail sales and it looks as if the massive slowdown in the economy is not materializing as a lot of people expected,” said Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist at LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina.</p><p><blockquote>“北卡罗来纳州夏洛特市 LPL Financial 高级市场策略师 Ryan Detrick 说：”从今天的情况来看，我们显然收到了零售销售方面的积极消息，而且经济的大幅放缓似乎并没有像许多人预期的那样实现。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s a nice reminder that the economy is still taking two steps forward for each step back even amid the COVID concerns,” Detrick added.</p><p><blockquote>“德特里克补充说：”这很好地提醒我们，即使在 COVID 担忧的情况下，经济仍在每后退一步前进两步。</blockquote></p><p> Economically sensitive transports and microchips were among the outperformers.</p><p><blockquote>对经济敏感的运输和微芯片表现优异。</blockquote></p><p> Data released before the opening bell showed an unexpected bump in retail sales as shoppers weathered Hurricane Ida and the COVID Delta variant, evidence of resilience in the consumer, who contributes about 70% to U.S. economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>开盘前公布的数据显示，随着购物者经受住了飓风艾达和新冠病毒德尔塔变异毒株的考验，零售额意外增长，这证明了消费者的韧性，消费者对美国经济增长的贡献约为70%。</blockquote></p><p> “Once again, it shows the U.S. consumer continues to spend and continues to help this economy grow,” Detrick said.</p><p><blockquote>“德特里克说：”这再次表明美国消费者继续消费，并继续帮助经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 63.07 points, or 0.18%, to 34,751.32; the S&amp;P 500 lost 6.95 points, or 0.16%, at 4,473.75; and the Nasdaq Composite added 20.40 points, or 0.13%, at 15,181.92.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌63.07点，跌幅0.18%，至34,751.32点；标普500下跌 6.95 点，跌幅 0.16%，报 4,473.75 点；纳斯达克综合指数上涨 20.40 点，即 0.13%，至 15,181.92 点。</blockquote></p><p> Eight of the 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P 500 ended lower, with materials suffering the largest percentage drop.</p><p><blockquote>标普500 11个主要板块中有8个板块收盘走低，其中材料板块跌幅最大。</blockquote></p><p> The consumer discretionary spending sector posted the biggest gain, with Amazon.com doing the heavy lifting.</p><p><blockquote>非必需消费品支出行业涨幅最大，其中亚马逊承担了重任。</blockquote></p><p> Apparel company Gap Inc gained 1.6%. Online marketplace Etsy Inc and luxury accessory company Tapestry Inc rose 3.1% and 1.9%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>服装公司 Gap Inc 上涨 1.6%。在线市场 Etsy Inc 和奢侈配饰公司 Tapestry Inc 分别上涨 3.1% 和 1.9%。</blockquote></p><p> Ford Motor Co rose 1.4% after it announced plans to boost production of its F-150 electric pickup model.</p><p><blockquote>福特汽车公司宣布计划提高 F-150 电动皮卡车型的产量，股价上涨 1.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.27-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.06-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌发行量与上涨发行量的比例为 1.27 比 1；在纳斯达克，1.06比1的比率有利于进步人士。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted nine new 52-week highs and one new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 82 new highs and 94 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下9个52周新高和一个新低；纳斯达克综合指数创下82个新高和94个新低。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 9.37 billion shares, compared with the 9.44 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的成交量为 93.7 亿股，而过去 20 个交易日的平均成交量为 94.4 亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/us-stocks-sp-ends-modestly-lower-as-rising-treasury-yields-offset-robust-retail-data-idUSL1N2QI2MB\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/us-stocks-sp-ends-modestly-lower-as-rising-treasury-yields-offset-robust-retail-data-idUSL1N2QI2MB","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105376345","content_text":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 ended slightly down on Thursday, paring losses in late trading after unexpectedly strong retail sales data underscored the strength of the U.S. economic recovery.\nThe three major indexes spent much of the day in negative territory as rising U.S. Treasury yields pressured market-leading tech stocks, and the rising dollar weighed on exporters.\nAmazon.com Inc, buoyed by solid online sales in the Commerce Department’s report, helped push the Nasdaq into positive territory.\n“Looking at today, clearly we had positive news from retail sales and it looks as if the massive slowdown in the economy is not materializing as a lot of people expected,” said Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist at LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina.\n“It’s a nice reminder that the economy is still taking two steps forward for each step back even amid the COVID concerns,” Detrick added.\nEconomically sensitive transports and microchips were among the outperformers.\nData released before the opening bell showed an unexpected bump in retail sales as shoppers weathered Hurricane Ida and the COVID Delta variant, evidence of resilience in the consumer, who contributes about 70% to U.S. economic growth.\n“Once again, it shows the U.S. consumer continues to spend and continues to help this economy grow,” Detrick said.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 63.07 points, or 0.18%, to 34,751.32; the S&P 500 lost 6.95 points, or 0.16%, at 4,473.75; and the Nasdaq Composite added 20.40 points, or 0.13%, at 15,181.92.\nEight of the 11 major sectors in the S&P 500 ended lower, with materials suffering the largest percentage drop.\nThe consumer discretionary spending sector posted the biggest gain, with Amazon.com doing the heavy lifting.\nApparel company Gap Inc gained 1.6%. Online marketplace Etsy Inc and luxury accessory company Tapestry Inc rose 3.1% and 1.9%, respectively.\nFord Motor Co rose 1.4% after it announced plans to boost production of its F-150 electric pickup model.\nDeclining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.27-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.06-to-1 ratio favored advancers.\nThe S&P 500 posted nine new 52-week highs and one new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 82 new highs and 94 new lows.\nVolume on U.S. exchanges was 9.37 billion shares, compared with the 9.44 billion average over the last 20 trading days.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2782,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880216965,"gmtCreate":1631059637457,"gmtModify":1631890400759,"author":{"id":"4091706622349130","authorId":"4091706622349130","name":"Stephenlimmh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36bc849c38db97b89159d04639c780dd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4091706622349130","authorIdStr":"4091706622349130"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Orange","listText":"Orange","text":"Orange","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880216965","repostId":"1129020034","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2489,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832149329,"gmtCreate":1629600897661,"gmtModify":1631890499518,"author":{"id":"4091706622349130","authorId":"4091706622349130","name":"Stephenlimmh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36bc849c38db97b89159d04639c780dd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4091706622349130","authorIdStr":"4091706622349130"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832149329","repostId":"1151608193","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151608193","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629728324,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1151608193?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-23 22:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股的回调——长期关注这 6 家公司</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151608193","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correcti","content":"<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p><p><blockquote>在股市的滚动调整中，芯片制造商受到的打击比大多数制造商都要大。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&amp;P 500,Nasdaq&nbsp;Composite&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%，而标准普尔 500 指数、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为 2% 或更少。</blockquote></p><p> Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着芯片股票值得买入？或者，这个历史上具有周期性的行业是否故技重施，陷入持续下跌趋势，让你大吃一惊。</blockquote></p><p> A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于您的时间表，但如果您喜欢持有股票多年，而不是租用几天，那么该集团值得购买。主要原因： “这次不一样”。</blockquote></p><p> Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p><p><blockquote>这些无疑是投资中最可怕的词语之一。但芯片行业已经发生了很大的变化，现在确实不同了——这表明它不太可能压垮你。</blockquote></p><p> You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为没有风险，那你就是个傻瓜。我会回顾一下这些。但首先，以下是该集团现在 “更安全 ”的三个主要原因--以及我在过去几天里与六位行业专家交谈过的六位行业专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.周期性的邪恶女巫死了</b></blockquote></p><p> “Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p><p><blockquote>“Impax Asset Management 的投资组合经理 David Winborne 说：”受产品周期的驱动，芯片行业的需求总是时好时坏。“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>电脑，然后是服务器，然后是电话。”但他表示，现在整个经济对芯片的需求已经扩大，因此长期增长故事更可预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>看看你周围。由于我们的生活和工作日益 “数字化 ”，终端市场需求从各个角度都更加多样化。把远程办公服务想象成<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">缩放</a>看好该集团的 Gabelli Funds 投资组合经理兼技术分析师 Hendi Susanto 指出，网上购物、云服务、电动汽车、5G 手机、智能工厂、大数据计算甚至洗衣机。</blockquote></p><p> “There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p><p><blockquote>“Motley Fool 芯片行业分析师 John Rotonti 说：”现代数字经济的任何方面都离不开半导体。“这意味着所有东西都有更多的筹码。长期需求是存在的”。</blockquote></p><p> He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William&nbsp;Blair&nbsp;analyst Greg Scolaro.</p><p><blockquote>他没开玩笑。威廉·布莱尔分析师格雷格·斯科拉罗预测，到2030年，芯片行业的收入将从2020年的4650亿美元翻一番，达到1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着，你听到的大范围供应短缺 “可能要到明年年底的某个时候才能得到解决”。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>芯片行业分析师 Vivek Arya。“这不仅是我们的观点，而且<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>大多数大客户都证实了这一点。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2、玩家巩固</b></blockquote></p><p> All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p><p><blockquote>在生产链的上下游，从设计到各类设备生产商再到制造，行业参与者已经整合成罗通蒂-评级 “赢得 ”的双头垄断或垄断。</blockquote></p><p> In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems&nbsp;and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML&nbsp;in extreme ultraviolet lithography&nbsp;(EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor&nbsp;and Samsung Electronics.</p><p><blockquote>在芯片设计软件中，你有Cadence Design Systems和Synopsys。在生产设备方面，公司在极紫外光刻 (EUV) 等专业领域占据主导地位，例如 ASML。制造业由台积电和三星电子主导。</blockquote></p><p> These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司通过在他们所做的事情上做到最好，赢得了他们的利基或双寡头地位。这使得投资者对它们感兴趣。Rotonti 表示，整合还意味着参与者在定价和产能方面的行为更加理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、盈利能力有所改善</b></blockquote></p><p> This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p><p><blockquote>这种更加理性的行为，加上成本削减，意味着现在的盈利能力比历史上高得多。“温伯恩说：”在过去的几年里，芯片制造的经济性有了很大的改善。现金流或 EBITDA 利润率现在通常超过 30%，而十年前则在 20% 左右。</blockquote></p><p> This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere &amp; Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p><p><blockquote>这对估值有影响。Villere &amp; Co. 的投资组合经理拉马尔·维莱尔 (Lamar Villere) 指出，尽管芯片股票的交易市盈率约为市盈率，但它们看起来很便宜，因为它们是更好的公司。“他们并没有以泡沫倍数进行交易”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The stocks to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要买的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我最近核实的芯片专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New management plays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新管理层玩法</b></blockquote></p><p> Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm&nbsp;and ON Semiconductor.</p><p><blockquote>尽管 Thrivent 高级股票研究分析师彼得·卡拉泽里斯 (Peter Karazeris) 有理由对该集团持谨慎态度（见下文），但他特别指出了两家公司的业绩可能会因为新管理层而得到提振：高通和安森美半导体。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p><p><blockquote>两者都具有稳定的盈利能力。高通最近受到德克萨斯州恶劣天气等一次性问题的打击，导致生产中断，但该公司对5G手机趋势有很好的了解。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">半导体</a>正在将手机以外的领域扩展到汽车、工业和物联网等新领域——联网设备领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A data center and gaming play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据中心和游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p><p><blockquote>Karazeris 还特别提到了 Nvidia， 由于其卓越的设计能力， Nvidia 从数据中心和游戏设备芯片需求中获得了持续提振。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Design tool companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>设计工具公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p><p><blockquote>说到设计，当高通和英伟达等公司想要设计芯片时，他们会求助于Cadence Design Systems提供的设计工具和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">概要</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool 的 Rotonti 解释说，他们基于软件的设计工具可以帮助芯片创新者为他们的芯片创建蓝图，他特别指出了这些名字。“他们不是世界上增长最快的公司，但他们的利润率很高”。他们也主宰了太空。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An EUV&nbsp;play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EUV游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>为了在芯片生产的早期阶段将这些蓝图应用到硅上，台积电和三星等公司转向了ASML。它的机器使用微小的光脉冲将芯片设计模板印在硅片上，这一过程称为极紫外线光刻。“罗通蒂说：”其他人还没有想出怎么做。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它在供应这样做的机器方面拥有垄断地位——这对于任何想要制造领先芯片的公司来说都是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p><p><blockquote>以下是芯片行业投资者需要关注的一些主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oversupply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供过于求</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p><p><blockquote>芯片生产已经政治化。美国希望在国内生产更多，这样它就不会受到中国供应链中断的影响。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>Winborne 表示，希望到 2025 年生产其使用的芯片的 70%，高于目前的 5%。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p><p><blockquote>结果是，政府为促进制造业提供了大量支持，因此会有更多支持。风险是未来某个时候供应过剩。这也可能会推动芯片设备的采购，导致未来的平静，这可能会损害设备制造商的销售和利润率趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple&nbsp;and Ammazon.com&nbsp;are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，像Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊这样的大型科技公司都在做自己的芯片设计，这威胁到了做同样事情的专业芯片公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">量子的</a>计算机的</b></blockquote></p><p> Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p><p><blockquote>William Blair 的 Scolaro 指出，使用基于量子物理学的芯片设计而不是传统半导体架构的计算机具有卓越的性能。“虽然量子计算可能至少在未来五年内不会成为主流，但它有潜力改变从技术到医疗保健的一切。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A disturbing signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>干扰信号</b></blockquote></p><p> A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>全球采购经理人 (PMI) 指数在 4 月份达到峰值，然后连续三个月放缓。与此同时，芯片销售持续增长。Thrivent 跟踪该指标的 Karazeris 指出，通常两者遵循相同的趋势。他将这种差异归因于库存积累，而库存积累不如真正的终端市场需求可持续。因此，他认为这种背离是芯片行业的看跌信号。</blockquote></p><p> Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory&nbsp;(DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p><p><blockquote>另一个警告信号来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片定价的预测疲软。“卡拉泽里斯说：”这些通常是在周期的顶部而不是底部看到的东西。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>但也有可能全球采购经理人指数的放缓更多的是芯片短缺的反映，而不是短缺并非真实存在的迹象（只是库存积压）。“Leuthold 经济学家兼策略师吉姆-保尔森（Jim Paulsen）说：”这种分歧并不一定意味着芯片订单会翻盘消亡。这意味着芯片制造业必须迎头赶上。</blockquote></p><p> Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，福特刚刚宣布不得不减产是因为芯片短缺，而不是潜在需求不足。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预测，由于高储蓄率、就业和收入反弹以及对大件商品被压抑的需求等因素，体面的经济增长是可持续的。如果他是对的，持续的经济实力将支撑对所有使用芯片的产品的需求，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股的回调——长期关注这 6 家公司</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股的回调——长期关注这 6 家公司</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-23 22:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p><p><blockquote>在股市的滚动调整中，芯片制造商受到的打击比大多数制造商都要大。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&amp;P 500,Nasdaq&nbsp;Composite&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%，而标准普尔 500 指数、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为 2% 或更少。</blockquote></p><p> Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着芯片股票值得买入？或者，这个历史上具有周期性的行业是否故技重施，陷入持续下跌趋势，让你大吃一惊。</blockquote></p><p> A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于您的时间表，但如果您喜欢持有股票多年，而不是租用几天，那么该集团值得购买。主要原因： “这次不一样”。</blockquote></p><p> Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p><p><blockquote>这些无疑是投资中最可怕的词语之一。但芯片行业已经发生了很大的变化，现在确实不同了——这表明它不太可能压垮你。</blockquote></p><p> You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为没有风险，那你就是个傻瓜。我会回顾一下这些。但首先，以下是该集团现在 “更安全 ”的三个主要原因--以及我在过去几天里与六位行业专家交谈过的六位行业专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.周期性的邪恶女巫死了</b></blockquote></p><p> “Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p><p><blockquote>“Impax Asset Management 的投资组合经理 David Winborne 说：”受产品周期的驱动，芯片行业的需求总是时好时坏。“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>电脑，然后是服务器，然后是电话。”但他表示，现在整个经济对芯片的需求已经扩大，因此长期增长故事更可预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>看看你周围。由于我们的生活和工作日益 “数字化 ”，终端市场需求从各个角度都更加多样化。把远程办公服务想象成<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">缩放</a>看好该集团的 Gabelli Funds 投资组合经理兼技术分析师 Hendi Susanto 指出，网上购物、云服务、电动汽车、5G 手机、智能工厂、大数据计算甚至洗衣机。</blockquote></p><p> “There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p><p><blockquote>“Motley Fool 芯片行业分析师 John Rotonti 说：”现代数字经济的任何方面都离不开半导体。“这意味着所有东西都有更多的筹码。长期需求是存在的”。</blockquote></p><p> He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William&nbsp;Blair&nbsp;analyst Greg Scolaro.</p><p><blockquote>他没开玩笑。威廉·布莱尔分析师格雷格·斯科拉罗预测，到2030年，芯片行业的收入将从2020年的4650亿美元翻一番，达到1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着，你听到的大范围供应短缺 “可能要到明年年底的某个时候才能得到解决”。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>芯片行业分析师 Vivek Arya。“这不仅是我们的观点，而且<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>大多数大客户都证实了这一点。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2、玩家巩固</b></blockquote></p><p> All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p><p><blockquote>在生产链的上下游，从设计到各类设备生产商再到制造，行业参与者已经整合成罗通蒂-评级 “赢得 ”的双头垄断或垄断。</blockquote></p><p> In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems&nbsp;and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML&nbsp;in extreme ultraviolet lithography&nbsp;(EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor&nbsp;and Samsung Electronics.</p><p><blockquote>在芯片设计软件中，你有Cadence Design Systems和Synopsys。在生产设备方面，公司在极紫外光刻 (EUV) 等专业领域占据主导地位，例如 ASML。制造业由台积电和三星电子主导。</blockquote></p><p> These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司通过在他们所做的事情上做到最好，赢得了他们的利基或双寡头地位。这使得投资者对它们感兴趣。Rotonti 表示，整合还意味着参与者在定价和产能方面的行为更加理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、盈利能力有所改善</b></blockquote></p><p> This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p><p><blockquote>这种更加理性的行为，加上成本削减，意味着现在的盈利能力比历史上高得多。“温伯恩说：”在过去的几年里，芯片制造的经济性有了很大的改善。现金流或 EBITDA 利润率现在通常超过 30%，而十年前则在 20% 左右。</blockquote></p><p> This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere &amp; Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p><p><blockquote>这对估值有影响。Villere &amp; Co. 的投资组合经理拉马尔·维莱尔 (Lamar Villere) 指出，尽管芯片股票的交易市盈率约为市盈率，但它们看起来很便宜，因为它们是更好的公司。“他们并没有以泡沫倍数进行交易”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The stocks to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要买的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我最近核实的芯片专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New management plays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新管理层玩法</b></blockquote></p><p> Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm&nbsp;and ON Semiconductor.</p><p><blockquote>尽管 Thrivent 高级股票研究分析师彼得·卡拉泽里斯 (Peter Karazeris) 有理由对该集团持谨慎态度（见下文），但他特别指出了两家公司的业绩可能会因为新管理层而得到提振：高通和安森美半导体。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p><p><blockquote>两者都具有稳定的盈利能力。高通最近受到德克萨斯州恶劣天气等一次性问题的打击，导致生产中断，但该公司对5G手机趋势有很好的了解。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">半导体</a>正在将手机以外的领域扩展到汽车、工业和物联网等新领域——联网设备领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A data center and gaming play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据中心和游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p><p><blockquote>Karazeris 还特别提到了 Nvidia， 由于其卓越的设计能力， Nvidia 从数据中心和游戏设备芯片需求中获得了持续提振。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Design tool companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>设计工具公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p><p><blockquote>说到设计，当高通和英伟达等公司想要设计芯片时，他们会求助于Cadence Design Systems提供的设计工具和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">概要</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool 的 Rotonti 解释说，他们基于软件的设计工具可以帮助芯片创新者为他们的芯片创建蓝图，他特别指出了这些名字。“他们不是世界上增长最快的公司，但他们的利润率很高”。他们也主宰了太空。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An EUV&nbsp;play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EUV游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>为了在芯片生产的早期阶段将这些蓝图应用到硅上，台积电和三星等公司转向了ASML。它的机器使用微小的光脉冲将芯片设计模板印在硅片上，这一过程称为极紫外线光刻。“罗通蒂说：”其他人还没有想出怎么做。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它在供应这样做的机器方面拥有垄断地位——这对于任何想要制造领先芯片的公司来说都是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p><p><blockquote>以下是芯片行业投资者需要关注的一些主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oversupply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供过于求</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p><p><blockquote>芯片生产已经政治化。美国希望在国内生产更多，这样它就不会受到中国供应链中断的影响。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>Winborne 表示，希望到 2025 年生产其使用的芯片的 70%，高于目前的 5%。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p><p><blockquote>结果是，政府为促进制造业提供了大量支持，因此会有更多支持。风险是未来某个时候供应过剩。这也可能会推动芯片设备的采购，导致未来的平静，这可能会损害设备制造商的销售和利润率趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple&nbsp;and Ammazon.com&nbsp;are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，像Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊这样的大型科技公司都在做自己的芯片设计，这威胁到了做同样事情的专业芯片公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">量子的</a>计算机的</b></blockquote></p><p> Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p><p><blockquote>William Blair 的 Scolaro 指出，使用基于量子物理学的芯片设计而不是传统半导体架构的计算机具有卓越的性能。“虽然量子计算可能至少在未来五年内不会成为主流，但它有潜力改变从技术到医疗保健的一切。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A disturbing signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>干扰信号</b></blockquote></p><p> A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>全球采购经理人 (PMI) 指数在 4 月份达到峰值，然后连续三个月放缓。与此同时，芯片销售持续增长。Thrivent 跟踪该指标的 Karazeris 指出，通常两者遵循相同的趋势。他将这种差异归因于库存积累，而库存积累不如真正的终端市场需求可持续。因此，他认为这种背离是芯片行业的看跌信号。</blockquote></p><p> Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory&nbsp;(DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p><p><blockquote>另一个警告信号来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片定价的预测疲软。“卡拉泽里斯说：”这些通常是在周期的顶部而不是底部看到的东西。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>但也有可能全球采购经理人指数的放缓更多的是芯片短缺的反映，而不是短缺并非真实存在的迹象（只是库存积压）。“Leuthold 经济学家兼策略师吉姆-保尔森（Jim Paulsen）说：”这种分歧并不一定意味着芯片订单会翻盘消亡。这意味着芯片制造业必须迎头赶上。</blockquote></p><p> Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，福特刚刚宣布不得不减产是因为芯片短缺，而不是潜在需求不足。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预测，由于高储蓄率、就业和收入反弹以及对大件商品被压抑的需求等因素，体面的经济增长是可持续的。如果他是对的，持续的经济实力将支撑对所有使用芯片的产品的需求，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ASML":"阿斯麦","AAPL":"苹果","AMZN":"亚马逊","CDNS":"铿腾电子","SNPS":"新思科技","SSNLF":"三星电子","TSM":"台积电","GOOG":"谷歌","SOXX":"iShares费城交易所半导体ETF","NVDA":"英伟达","ON":"安森美半导体","QCOM":"高通","GOOGL":"谷歌A"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151608193","content_text":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.\nThe iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&P 500,Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.\nDoes that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.\nA lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”\nThose are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.\nYou’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.\n1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead\n“Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “First PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.\nJust look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like Zoom, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.\n“There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”\nHe’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William Blair analyst Greg Scolaro.\nAll of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says Bank of America chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but one confirmed by a majority of large customers.”\n2. The players have consolidated\nAll up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.\nIn chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML in extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung Electronics.\nThese companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.\n3. Profitability has improved\nThis more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.\nThis has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere & Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”\nThe stocks to buy\nHere are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.\nNew management plays\nThough Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm and ON Semiconductor.\nBoth have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. ON Semiconductor is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.\nA data center and gaming play\nKarazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.\nDesign tool companies\nSpeaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.\nTheir software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.\nAn EUV play\nTo put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.\nIn other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.\nRisks\nHere are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.\nOversupply\nChip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. China wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.\nThe upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.\nNext, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple and Ammazon.com are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.\nQuantum computing\nComputers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”\nA disturbing signal\nA blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.\nAnother cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.\nBut it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.\nFord,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.\nPaulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including Ford cars.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOGL":0.9,"TSM":0.9,"SSNLF":0.9,"ASML":0.9,"ON":0.9,"QCOM":0.9,"CDNS":0.9,"SOXX":0.9,"SNPS":0.9,"NVDA":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"GOOG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2077,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":836106966,"gmtCreate":1629461558255,"gmtModify":1631890499530,"author":{"id":"4091706622349130","authorId":"4091706622349130","name":"Stephenlimmh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36bc849c38db97b89159d04639c780dd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4091706622349130","authorIdStr":"4091706622349130"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Oh dear","listText":"Oh dear","text":"Oh dear","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/836106966","repostId":"1180272232","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2555,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831776729,"gmtCreate":1629354648661,"gmtModify":1631890499539,"author":{"id":"4091706622349130","authorId":"4091706622349130","name":"Stephenlimmh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36bc849c38db97b89159d04639c780dd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4091706622349130","authorIdStr":"4091706622349130"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Know knowns, known unknowns, unknown unknowns","listText":"Know knowns, known unknowns, unknown unknowns","text":"Know knowns, known unknowns, unknown unknowns","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831776729","repostId":"1181909905","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181909905","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629332628,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1181909905?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-19 08:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla AI Day Is Thursday. Why It’s a Big Day for the Stock.<blockquote>特斯拉人工智能日是周四。为什么今天是该股的重要日子。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181909905","media":"Barrons","summary":"Former defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld said there are known knowns—things people know—known unknowns—things people know they don’t know—and unknown unknowns—things people don’t realize they don’t know. That pretty much sums up autonomous driving technology these days.It isn’t clear how long it will take the auto industry to deliver truly self-driving cars. Thursday evening, however, investors will get an education about what’s state of the art when Tesla  hosts its artificial intelligence day.","content":"<p>Former defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld said there are known knowns—things people know—known unknowns—things people know they don’t know—and unknown unknowns—things people don’t realize they don’t know. That pretty much sums up autonomous driving technology these days.</p><p><blockquote>前国防部长唐纳德-拉姆斯菲尔德（Donald Rumsfeld）说，有已知的已知--人们知道的事情--已知的未知--人们知道但不知道的事情--和未知的未知--人们没有意识到他们不知道的事情。这几乎概括了当今自动驾驶技术。</blockquote></p><p> It isn’t clear how long it will take the auto industry to deliver truly self-driving cars. Thursday evening, however, investors will get an education about what’s state of the art when Tesla (ticker: TSLA) hosts its artificial intelligence day.</p><p><blockquote>目前还不清楚汽车行业需要多长时间才能交付真正的自动驾驶汽车。不过，本周四晚上，特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）将举办人工智能日，届时投资者将了解最先进的技术。</blockquote></p><p> The event will likely be livestreamed on the company’s website beginning around 5 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. A link to the webcast isn’t available yet. The company didn’t respond to a request for comment about the agenda for the event.</p><p><blockquote>该活动可能会在东部标准时间下午 5 点左右开始在公司网站上进行现场直播。目前还没有网络直播的链接。该公司没有回应就活动议程发表评论的请求。</blockquote></p><p> Much of what will get talked about won’t be a surprise, even if investors don’t understand it all. Those are known unknowns.</p><p><blockquote>即使投资者并不了解所有内容，许多将被讨论的内容也不会让人感到意外。这些都是已知的未知数。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla should update investors about its driver assistance feature dubbed full self driving. What’s more, the company will describe the benefit of vertical integration. Tesla makes the hardware—its own computers with its own microchips—and its software. Tesla might even give a more definitive timeline for when Level 4 autonomous vehicles will be ready.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉应该向投资者介绍其被称为全自动驾驶的驾驶员辅助功能。此外，公司还将介绍垂直整合的好处。特斯拉制造硬件——带有自己微芯片的自己的计算机——和自己的软件。特斯拉甚至可能会给出更明确的 4 级自动驾驶汽车何时准备就绪的时间表。</blockquote></p><p> Roth Capital analyst&nbsp;Craig Irwin&nbsp;doesn’t believe Level 4 technology is on the horizon though. He tells<i>Barron’s</i>the computing power and camera resolution just isn’t there yet. “Tesla will work hard to suggest tech leadership in AI for automotive,” says Irwin. “Reality will probably be much less exciting than their claims.”</p><p><blockquote>不过，罗斯资本（Roth Capital）分析师克雷格-欧文（Craig Irwin）并不认为 4 级技术即将问世。他告诉<i>巴伦</i>计算能力和相机分辨率还不具备。“欧文说：”特斯拉将努力在汽车人工智能领域发挥技术领导作用。“现实可能远没有他们的说法那么令人兴奋。”</blockquote></p><p> Irwin rates Tesla shares Hold. His price target is just $150 a share.</p><p><blockquote>欧文持有特斯拉股票。他的目标价仅为每股 150 美元。</blockquote></p><p> The car industry essentially defines&nbsp;five levels of autonomous driving. Level 1 is nothing more than cruise control. Level 2 systems are available on cars today and combine features such as adaptive cruise and lane-keeping assistance, enabling the car to do a lot on its own. Drivers, however, still need to pay attention 100% of the time with Level 2 systems.</p><p><blockquote>汽车行业基本上定义了自动驾驶的五个级别。一级无非就是巡航控制。如今，Level 2 系统可用于汽车，并结合了自适应巡航和车道保持辅助等功能，使汽车能够自行完成很多事情。然而，驾驶员仍然需要100%的时间关注2级系统。</blockquote></p><p> Level 3 systems would allow drivers to stop paying attention part of the time. Level 4 would let them stop paying attention most of the time. And Level 5 means the car does everything always. “Level 5 autonomy isn’t an easy endeavor,” says Global X analyst&nbsp;Pedro Palandrani. There are so many unique cases for technology to tackle, like in bad weather or dirt roads. “But level 4 is enough to change the world.” he added. He is more optimistic than Irwin about the timing for Level 4 systems and hopes Tesla provides more timing detail at its event.</p><p><blockquote>3级系统将允许司机在部分时间停止注意力。四级会让他们大部分时间都不再注意。第 5 级意味着汽车总是做所有事情。“Global X 分析师佩德罗-帕兰德拉尼（Pedro Palandrani）说：”5 级自主权并非易事。技术有很多独特的情况需要解决，比如在恶劣天气或土路上。“但第四层足以改变世界。”他补充道。他对4级系统的时间安排比欧文更乐观，并希望特斯拉在其活动中提供更多的时间安排细节。</blockquote></p><p> Beyond a technology run down and level 4 timing, the company might have some surprises up its sleeve for investors. Palandrani has two ideas.</p><p><blockquote>除了技术崩溃和 4 级时机之外，该公司可能会给投资者带来一些惊喜。帕兰德拉尼有两个想法。</blockquote></p><p> For starters, Tesla might indicate it’s willing to sell its hardware and software to other car companies. That would give Tesla other unexpected, sources of income. Tesla already offers its full self driving as a monthly subscription to owners of its cars. That’s new for the car industry and opens up a source of recurring revenue for anyone with the requisite technology. Selling hardware and software to other car companies, however, would be new, and surprising, for investors.</p><p><blockquote>首先，特斯拉可能会表示愿意将其硬件和软件出售给其他汽车公司。这将给特斯拉带来其他意想不到的收入来源。特斯拉已经向车主提供全自动驾驶服务，按月订阅。这对汽车行业来说是新鲜事，也为任何拥有必要技术的人开辟了经常性收入来源。然而，对于投资者来说，向其他汽车公司出售硬件和软件是新鲜且令人惊讶的。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla might also talk about its advancements in robotics. CEO&nbsp;Elon Musk&nbsp;has talked often in the past about the difficulty of making the machine that makes the machine. Some of Tesla’s AI efforts might also be targeted at building, and not just driving, vehicles. “We’re just making a crazy amount of machinery internally,” said Musk on the company’s second-quarter conference call. “This is….not well understood.”</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉也可能会谈论其在机器人技术方面的进步。首席执行官埃隆·马斯克过去经常谈到制造机器的困难。特斯拉的一些人工智能工作也可能针对制造汽车，而不仅仅是驾驶汽车。“马斯克在公司第二季度电话会议上说：”我们正在内部制造大量的机器。“这……不太明白。”</blockquote></p><p> Those are two items that can surprise. Whether they, or other tidbits, will move the stock is something else entirely.</p><p><blockquote>这是两个令人惊讶的项目。它们或其他花絮是否会影响股票完全是另一回事。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock dropped about 7% over Monday and Tuesday partly because NHTSA disclosed it was&nbsp;looking into accidents&nbsp;involving Tesla’s driver assistance features. Tesla will surely stress the safety benefits of driver assistance features on Thursday, whether it can shake off that bit of bad news though is harder to tell.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价周一和周二下跌约 7%，部分原因是美国国家公路交通安全管理局（NHTSA）披露正在调查涉及特斯拉驾驶辅助功能的事故。特斯拉肯定会在周四强调驾驶员辅助功能的安全优势，但它是否能摆脱这一点坏消息还很难说。</blockquote></p><p> “Thursday becomes a much more important event in light of this week’s [NHTSA] probe,” says Wedbush analyst&nbsp;Dan Ives. “This week has been another tough week for Tesla [stock] and the Street needs some good news heading into this AI event.”</p><p><blockquote>“韦德布什分析师丹-艾夫斯（Dan Ives）说：”鉴于本周的[NHTSA]调查，周四将成为一个更加重要的事件。“本周对特斯拉[股票]来说又是艰难的一周，华尔街需要一些好消息来迎接这场人工智能盛会。”</blockquote></p><p> Ives rates Tesla shares Buy and has a $1,000 price target for the stock. Tesla’s autonomous driving leadership is part of his bullish take on shares.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯将特斯拉股票评级为买入，并将该股目标价定为 1,000 美元。特斯拉在自动驾驶领域的领导地位是他看好股票的一部分。</blockquote></p><p> If history is any guide investors should expect volatility. Tesla stock dropped 10% the day following its&nbsp;battery technology eventi&nbsp;n September 2020. It took shares about seven trading days to recover, and Tesla stock gained about 86% from the battery event to year-end.</p><p><blockquote>如果历史可以作为指导，投资者应该预料到波动性。特斯拉股价在 2020 年 9 月电池技术事件发生后的第二天下跌了 10%。股价花了大约七个交易日才恢复，特斯拉股价从电池事件到年底上涨了约 86%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Tesla stock is down about 6% year to date, trailing behind the 18% and 15% comparable, respective gains of the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;and&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average.Tesla stock hasn’t moved much, in absolute terms, since March. Shares were in the high $600s back then. They closed down 3% at $665.71 on Tuesday, but rose 3.5% at $688.99 on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价今年迄今已下跌约 6%，落后于标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数分别上涨 18% 和 15%。当时股价高达 600 美元。周二收盘下跌 3%，至 665.71 美元，但周三上涨 3.5%，至 688.99 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla AI Day Is Thursday. Why It’s a Big Day for the Stock.<blockquote>特斯拉人工智能日是周四。为什么今天是该股的重要日子。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla AI Day Is Thursday. Why It’s a Big Day for the Stock.<blockquote>特斯拉人工智能日是周四。为什么今天是该股的重要日子。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-19 08:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Former defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld said there are known knowns—things people know—known unknowns—things people know they don’t know—and unknown unknowns—things people don’t realize they don’t know. That pretty much sums up autonomous driving technology these days.</p><p><blockquote>前国防部长唐纳德-拉姆斯菲尔德（Donald Rumsfeld）说，有已知的已知--人们知道的事情--已知的未知--人们知道但不知道的事情--和未知的未知--人们没有意识到他们不知道的事情。这几乎概括了当今自动驾驶技术。</blockquote></p><p> It isn’t clear how long it will take the auto industry to deliver truly self-driving cars. Thursday evening, however, investors will get an education about what’s state of the art when Tesla (ticker: TSLA) hosts its artificial intelligence day.</p><p><blockquote>目前还不清楚汽车行业需要多长时间才能交付真正的自动驾驶汽车。不过，本周四晚上，特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）将举办人工智能日，届时投资者将了解最先进的技术。</blockquote></p><p> The event will likely be livestreamed on the company’s website beginning around 5 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. A link to the webcast isn’t available yet. The company didn’t respond to a request for comment about the agenda for the event.</p><p><blockquote>该活动可能会在东部标准时间下午 5 点左右开始在公司网站上进行现场直播。目前还没有网络直播的链接。该公司没有回应就活动议程发表评论的请求。</blockquote></p><p> Much of what will get talked about won’t be a surprise, even if investors don’t understand it all. Those are known unknowns.</p><p><blockquote>即使投资者并不了解所有内容，许多将被讨论的内容也不会让人感到意外。这些都是已知的未知数。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla should update investors about its driver assistance feature dubbed full self driving. What’s more, the company will describe the benefit of vertical integration. Tesla makes the hardware—its own computers with its own microchips—and its software. Tesla might even give a more definitive timeline for when Level 4 autonomous vehicles will be ready.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉应该向投资者介绍其被称为全自动驾驶的驾驶员辅助功能。此外，公司还将介绍垂直整合的好处。特斯拉制造硬件——带有自己微芯片的自己的计算机——和自己的软件。特斯拉甚至可能会给出更明确的 4 级自动驾驶汽车何时准备就绪的时间表。</blockquote></p><p> Roth Capital analyst&nbsp;Craig Irwin&nbsp;doesn’t believe Level 4 technology is on the horizon though. He tells<i>Barron’s</i>the computing power and camera resolution just isn’t there yet. “Tesla will work hard to suggest tech leadership in AI for automotive,” says Irwin. “Reality will probably be much less exciting than their claims.”</p><p><blockquote>不过，罗斯资本（Roth Capital）分析师克雷格-欧文（Craig Irwin）并不认为 4 级技术即将问世。他告诉<i>巴伦</i>计算能力和相机分辨率还不具备。“欧文说：”特斯拉将努力在汽车人工智能领域发挥技术领导作用。“现实可能远没有他们的说法那么令人兴奋。”</blockquote></p><p> Irwin rates Tesla shares Hold. His price target is just $150 a share.</p><p><blockquote>欧文持有特斯拉股票。他的目标价仅为每股 150 美元。</blockquote></p><p> The car industry essentially defines&nbsp;five levels of autonomous driving. Level 1 is nothing more than cruise control. Level 2 systems are available on cars today and combine features such as adaptive cruise and lane-keeping assistance, enabling the car to do a lot on its own. Drivers, however, still need to pay attention 100% of the time with Level 2 systems.</p><p><blockquote>汽车行业基本上定义了自动驾驶的五个级别。一级无非就是巡航控制。如今，Level 2 系统可用于汽车，并结合了自适应巡航和车道保持辅助等功能，使汽车能够自行完成很多事情。然而，驾驶员仍然需要100%的时间关注2级系统。</blockquote></p><p> Level 3 systems would allow drivers to stop paying attention part of the time. Level 4 would let them stop paying attention most of the time. And Level 5 means the car does everything always. “Level 5 autonomy isn’t an easy endeavor,” says Global X analyst&nbsp;Pedro Palandrani. There are so many unique cases for technology to tackle, like in bad weather or dirt roads. “But level 4 is enough to change the world.” he added. He is more optimistic than Irwin about the timing for Level 4 systems and hopes Tesla provides more timing detail at its event.</p><p><blockquote>3级系统将允许司机在部分时间停止注意力。四级会让他们大部分时间都不再注意。第 5 级意味着汽车总是做所有事情。“Global X 分析师佩德罗-帕兰德拉尼（Pedro Palandrani）说：”5 级自主权并非易事。技术有很多独特的情况需要解决，比如在恶劣天气或土路上。“但第四层足以改变世界。”他补充道。他对4级系统的时间安排比欧文更乐观，并希望特斯拉在其活动中提供更多的时间安排细节。</blockquote></p><p> Beyond a technology run down and level 4 timing, the company might have some surprises up its sleeve for investors. Palandrani has two ideas.</p><p><blockquote>除了技术崩溃和 4 级时机之外，该公司可能会给投资者带来一些惊喜。帕兰德拉尼有两个想法。</blockquote></p><p> For starters, Tesla might indicate it’s willing to sell its hardware and software to other car companies. That would give Tesla other unexpected, sources of income. Tesla already offers its full self driving as a monthly subscription to owners of its cars. That’s new for the car industry and opens up a source of recurring revenue for anyone with the requisite technology. Selling hardware and software to other car companies, however, would be new, and surprising, for investors.</p><p><blockquote>首先，特斯拉可能会表示愿意将其硬件和软件出售给其他汽车公司。这将给特斯拉带来其他意想不到的收入来源。特斯拉已经向车主提供全自动驾驶服务，按月订阅。这对汽车行业来说是新鲜事，也为任何拥有必要技术的人开辟了经常性收入来源。然而，对于投资者来说，向其他汽车公司出售硬件和软件是新鲜且令人惊讶的。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla might also talk about its advancements in robotics. CEO&nbsp;Elon Musk&nbsp;has talked often in the past about the difficulty of making the machine that makes the machine. Some of Tesla’s AI efforts might also be targeted at building, and not just driving, vehicles. “We’re just making a crazy amount of machinery internally,” said Musk on the company’s second-quarter conference call. “This is….not well understood.”</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉也可能会谈论其在机器人技术方面的进步。首席执行官埃隆·马斯克过去经常谈到制造机器的困难。特斯拉的一些人工智能工作也可能针对制造汽车，而不仅仅是驾驶汽车。“马斯克在公司第二季度电话会议上说：”我们正在内部制造大量的机器。“这……不太明白。”</blockquote></p><p> Those are two items that can surprise. Whether they, or other tidbits, will move the stock is something else entirely.</p><p><blockquote>这是两个令人惊讶的项目。它们或其他花絮是否会影响股票完全是另一回事。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock dropped about 7% over Monday and Tuesday partly because NHTSA disclosed it was&nbsp;looking into accidents&nbsp;involving Tesla’s driver assistance features. Tesla will surely stress the safety benefits of driver assistance features on Thursday, whether it can shake off that bit of bad news though is harder to tell.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价周一和周二下跌约 7%，部分原因是美国国家公路交通安全管理局（NHTSA）披露正在调查涉及特斯拉驾驶辅助功能的事故。特斯拉肯定会在周四强调驾驶员辅助功能的安全优势，但它是否能摆脱这一点坏消息还很难说。</blockquote></p><p> “Thursday becomes a much more important event in light of this week’s [NHTSA] probe,” says Wedbush analyst&nbsp;Dan Ives. “This week has been another tough week for Tesla [stock] and the Street needs some good news heading into this AI event.”</p><p><blockquote>“韦德布什分析师丹-艾夫斯（Dan Ives）说：”鉴于本周的[NHTSA]调查，周四将成为一个更加重要的事件。“本周对特斯拉[股票]来说又是艰难的一周，华尔街需要一些好消息来迎接这场人工智能盛会。”</blockquote></p><p> Ives rates Tesla shares Buy and has a $1,000 price target for the stock. Tesla’s autonomous driving leadership is part of his bullish take on shares.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯将特斯拉股票评级为买入，并将该股目标价定为 1,000 美元。特斯拉在自动驾驶领域的领导地位是他看好股票的一部分。</blockquote></p><p> If history is any guide investors should expect volatility. Tesla stock dropped 10% the day following its&nbsp;battery technology eventi&nbsp;n September 2020. It took shares about seven trading days to recover, and Tesla stock gained about 86% from the battery event to year-end.</p><p><blockquote>如果历史可以作为指导，投资者应该预料到波动性。特斯拉股价在 2020 年 9 月电池技术事件发生后的第二天下跌了 10%。股价花了大约七个交易日才恢复，特斯拉股价从电池事件到年底上涨了约 86%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Tesla stock is down about 6% year to date, trailing behind the 18% and 15% comparable, respective gains of the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;and&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average.Tesla stock hasn’t moved much, in absolute terms, since March. Shares were in the high $600s back then. They closed down 3% at $665.71 on Tuesday, but rose 3.5% at $688.99 on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价今年迄今已下跌约 6%，落后于标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数分别上涨 18% 和 15%。当时股价高达 600 美元。周二收盘下跌 3%，至 665.71 美元，但周三上涨 3.5%，至 688.99 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-ai-day-51629244043?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_1\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-ai-day-51629244043?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181909905","content_text":"Former defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld said there are known knowns—things people know—known unknowns—things people know they don’t know—and unknown unknowns—things people don’t realize they don’t know. That pretty much sums up autonomous driving technology these days.\nIt isn’t clear how long it will take the auto industry to deliver truly self-driving cars. Thursday evening, however, investors will get an education about what’s state of the art when Tesla (ticker: TSLA) hosts its artificial intelligence day.\nThe event will likely be livestreamed on the company’s website beginning around 5 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. A link to the webcast isn’t available yet. The company didn’t respond to a request for comment about the agenda for the event.\nMuch of what will get talked about won’t be a surprise, even if investors don’t understand it all. Those are known unknowns.\nTesla should update investors about its driver assistance feature dubbed full self driving. What’s more, the company will describe the benefit of vertical integration. Tesla makes the hardware—its own computers with its own microchips—and its software. Tesla might even give a more definitive timeline for when Level 4 autonomous vehicles will be ready.\nRoth Capital analyst Craig Irwin doesn’t believe Level 4 technology is on the horizon though. He tellsBarron’sthe computing power and camera resolution just isn’t there yet. “Tesla will work hard to suggest tech leadership in AI for automotive,” says Irwin. “Reality will probably be much less exciting than their claims.”\nIrwin rates Tesla shares Hold. His price target is just $150 a share.\nThe car industry essentially defines five levels of autonomous driving. Level 1 is nothing more than cruise control. Level 2 systems are available on cars today and combine features such as adaptive cruise and lane-keeping assistance, enabling the car to do a lot on its own. Drivers, however, still need to pay attention 100% of the time with Level 2 systems.\nLevel 3 systems would allow drivers to stop paying attention part of the time. Level 4 would let them stop paying attention most of the time. And Level 5 means the car does everything always. “Level 5 autonomy isn’t an easy endeavor,” says Global X analyst Pedro Palandrani. There are so many unique cases for technology to tackle, like in bad weather or dirt roads. “But level 4 is enough to change the world.” he added. He is more optimistic than Irwin about the timing for Level 4 systems and hopes Tesla provides more timing detail at its event.\nBeyond a technology run down and level 4 timing, the company might have some surprises up its sleeve for investors. Palandrani has two ideas.\nFor starters, Tesla might indicate it’s willing to sell its hardware and software to other car companies. That would give Tesla other unexpected, sources of income. Tesla already offers its full self driving as a monthly subscription to owners of its cars. That’s new for the car industry and opens up a source of recurring revenue for anyone with the requisite technology. Selling hardware and software to other car companies, however, would be new, and surprising, for investors.\nTesla might also talk about its advancements in robotics. CEO Elon Musk has talked often in the past about the difficulty of making the machine that makes the machine. Some of Tesla’s AI efforts might also be targeted at building, and not just driving, vehicles. “We’re just making a crazy amount of machinery internally,” said Musk on the company’s second-quarter conference call. “This is….not well understood.”\nThose are two items that can surprise. Whether they, or other tidbits, will move the stock is something else entirely.\nTesla stock dropped about 7% over Monday and Tuesday partly because NHTSA disclosed it was looking into accidents involving Tesla’s driver assistance features. Tesla will surely stress the safety benefits of driver assistance features on Thursday, whether it can shake off that bit of bad news though is harder to tell.\n“Thursday becomes a much more important event in light of this week’s [NHTSA] probe,” says Wedbush analyst Dan Ives. “This week has been another tough week for Tesla [stock] and the Street needs some good news heading into this AI event.”\nIves rates Tesla shares Buy and has a $1,000 price target for the stock. Tesla’s autonomous driving leadership is part of his bullish take on shares.\nIf history is any guide investors should expect volatility. Tesla stock dropped 10% the day following its battery technology eventi n September 2020. It took shares about seven trading days to recover, and Tesla stock gained about 86% from the battery event to year-end.\nTesla stock is down about 6% year to date, trailing behind the 18% and 15% comparable, respective gains of the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average.Tesla stock hasn’t moved much, in absolute terms, since March. Shares were in the high $600s back then. They closed down 3% at $665.71 on Tuesday, but rose 3.5% at $688.99 on Wednesday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2070,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":833510812,"gmtCreate":1629249331436,"gmtModify":1631890499550,"author":{"id":"4091706622349130","authorId":"4091706622349130","name":"Stephenlimmh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36bc849c38db97b89159d04639c780dd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4091706622349130","authorIdStr":"4091706622349130"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Is it really worth it to buy Tesla over byd?","listText":"Is it really worth it to buy Tesla over byd?","text":"Is it really worth it to buy Tesla over byd?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/833510812","repostId":"1189114396","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189114396","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629247487,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1189114396?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-18 08:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock Sells off While Institutions Continue to Buy.<blockquote>特斯拉股票遭到抛售，而机构继续买入。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189114396","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Tesla stock has tumbled almost 10% off recent highs but institutions are continuing to buy.\nIn a mar","content":"<p>Tesla stock has tumbled almost 10% off recent highs but institutions are continuing to buy.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价已较近期高点下跌近 10%，但机构仍在继续买入。</blockquote></p><p> In a market filled with&nbsp;liquidity, the \"buy the dip mentality\" continues to persist. This appears to be true with Tesla stock and institutions.</p><p><blockquote>在流动性充裕的市场中，“逢低买入心态”继续挥之不去。特斯拉股票和机构似乎确实如此。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Demand for Shares Increases in Q3</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三季度股票需求增加</b></blockquote></p><p> Q3 has been on pace to be the first quarter since Q4 2020 to have an overall&nbsp;net inflow&nbsp;of Tesla stock into institutions—those with at least $100 million under management. Currently, there is a net inflow of $7 billion of Tesla stock into institutions. 13F filings were due August 15th to show any quarter-over-quarter changes in Q2, however, institutions can continue to update positions throughout the third quarter.</p><p><blockquote>第三季度有望成为自2020年第四季度以来第一个特斯拉股票整体净流入机构的季度，这些机构管理着至少1亿美元。目前，有70亿美元的特斯拉股票净流入机构。13F 文件将于 8 月 15 日提交，以显示第二季度的任何环比变化，但是，机构可以在整个第三季度继续更新头寸。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/373bcfeda661a3fdddb1ad430c075270\" tg-width=\"683\" tg-height=\"604\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>via: marketbeat.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：marketbeat.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Of those \"buying the dip\" the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, increased their position&nbsp;617% quarter-over-quarter&nbsp;for a total of&nbsp;330,196 shares. While this accounts for a small position in the&nbsp;under management&nbsp;for CPPIB, others have made Tesla a larger portion of their portfolio. Australia-based Hyperion Asset Management has also increased its Tesla stock position by over 20%. As a result of the additional shares, Tesla stock is now over 15% of Hyperions portfolio demonstrating more conviction than Cathie Wood'sARKKwith a ~10% allocation to Tesla stock.</p><p><blockquote>在那些“逢低买入”的人中，加拿大养老金计划投资委员会（Canada Pension Plan Investment Board）的持仓环比增加了617%，总计330,196股。虽然这在 CPPIB 的管理层中所占比例很小，但其他公司已将特斯拉纳入其投资组合的更大一部分。总部位于澳大利亚的 Hyperion Asset Management 也将其特斯拉股票头寸增加了 20% 以上。由于增发了股票，特斯拉股票现在占Hyperions投资组合的15%以上，比Cathie Wood的Sarkk更有信心，将约10%的股票配置给了特斯拉股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Notable Bear</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一只著名的熊</b></blockquote></p><p> While not a direct seller of shares, Dr. Michael Burry—famed for hisshortposition against subprime mortgage bonds—has announced in Scion Asset Management's&nbsp;13F&nbsp;the purchase of additional Put Options against Tesla. Scion Asset management has held a bearish Put Option against Tesla since Q1 2021. The aforementioned Put Options&nbsp;— representing 35% of Scion's portfolio and a current market value of ~$731 million—&nbsp;are Scion's largest positions.</p><p><blockquote>虽然不是股票的直接卖家，但以次级抵押贷款债券空头头寸而闻名的 Michael Burry 博士在 Scion Asset Management 的 13F 中宣布购买针对特斯拉的额外看跌期权。Scion Asset management 自 2021 年第一季度以来一直持有看跌特斯拉的看跌看跌期权。上述看跌期权占 Scion 投资组合的 35%，当前市值约为 7.31 亿美元，是 Scion 最大的头寸。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock Sells off While Institutions Continue to Buy.<blockquote>特斯拉股票遭到抛售，而机构继续买入。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock Sells off While Institutions Continue to Buy.<blockquote>特斯拉股票遭到抛售，而机构继续买入。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-18 08:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla stock has tumbled almost 10% off recent highs but institutions are continuing to buy.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价已较近期高点下跌近 10%，但机构仍在继续买入。</blockquote></p><p> In a market filled with&nbsp;liquidity, the \"buy the dip mentality\" continues to persist. This appears to be true with Tesla stock and institutions.</p><p><blockquote>在流动性充裕的市场中，“逢低买入心态”继续挥之不去。特斯拉股票和机构似乎确实如此。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Demand for Shares Increases in Q3</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三季度股票需求增加</b></blockquote></p><p> Q3 has been on pace to be the first quarter since Q4 2020 to have an overall&nbsp;net inflow&nbsp;of Tesla stock into institutions—those with at least $100 million under management. Currently, there is a net inflow of $7 billion of Tesla stock into institutions. 13F filings were due August 15th to show any quarter-over-quarter changes in Q2, however, institutions can continue to update positions throughout the third quarter.</p><p><blockquote>第三季度有望成为自2020年第四季度以来第一个特斯拉股票整体净流入机构的季度，这些机构管理着至少1亿美元。目前，有70亿美元的特斯拉股票净流入机构。13F 文件将于 8 月 15 日提交，以显示第二季度的任何环比变化，但是，机构可以在整个第三季度继续更新头寸。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/373bcfeda661a3fdddb1ad430c075270\" tg-width=\"683\" tg-height=\"604\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>via: marketbeat.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：marketbeat.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Of those \"buying the dip\" the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, increased their position&nbsp;617% quarter-over-quarter&nbsp;for a total of&nbsp;330,196 shares. While this accounts for a small position in the&nbsp;under management&nbsp;for CPPIB, others have made Tesla a larger portion of their portfolio. Australia-based Hyperion Asset Management has also increased its Tesla stock position by over 20%. As a result of the additional shares, Tesla stock is now over 15% of Hyperions portfolio demonstrating more conviction than Cathie Wood'sARKKwith a ~10% allocation to Tesla stock.</p><p><blockquote>在那些“逢低买入”的人中，加拿大养老金计划投资委员会（Canada Pension Plan Investment Board）的持仓环比增加了617%，总计330,196股。虽然这在 CPPIB 的管理层中所占比例很小，但其他公司已将特斯拉纳入其投资组合的更大一部分。总部位于澳大利亚的 Hyperion Asset Management 也将其特斯拉股票头寸增加了 20% 以上。由于增发了股票，特斯拉股票现在占Hyperions投资组合的15%以上，比Cathie Wood的Sarkk更有信心，将约10%的股票配置给了特斯拉股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Notable Bear</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一只著名的熊</b></blockquote></p><p> While not a direct seller of shares, Dr. Michael Burry—famed for hisshortposition against subprime mortgage bonds—has announced in Scion Asset Management's&nbsp;13F&nbsp;the purchase of additional Put Options against Tesla. Scion Asset management has held a bearish Put Option against Tesla since Q1 2021. The aforementioned Put Options&nbsp;— representing 35% of Scion's portfolio and a current market value of ~$731 million—&nbsp;are Scion's largest positions.</p><p><blockquote>虽然不是股票的直接卖家，但以次级抵押贷款债券空头头寸而闻名的 Michael Burry 博士在 Scion Asset Management 的 13F 中宣布购买针对特斯拉的额外看跌期权。Scion Asset management 自 2021 年第一季度以来一直持有看跌特斯拉的看跌看跌期权。上述看跌期权占 Scion 投资组合的 35%，当前市值约为 7.31 亿美元，是 Scion 最大的头寸。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/tesla/news/institutions-continue-to-buy-q3\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/tesla/news/institutions-continue-to-buy-q3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189114396","content_text":"Tesla stock has tumbled almost 10% off recent highs but institutions are continuing to buy.\nIn a market filled with liquidity, the \"buy the dip mentality\" continues to persist. This appears to be true with Tesla stock and institutions.\nDemand for Shares Increases in Q3\nQ3 has been on pace to be the first quarter since Q4 2020 to have an overall net inflow of Tesla stock into institutions—those with at least $100 million under management. Currently, there is a net inflow of $7 billion of Tesla stock into institutions. 13F filings were due August 15th to show any quarter-over-quarter changes in Q2, however, institutions can continue to update positions throughout the third quarter.\nvia: marketbeat.com\nOf those \"buying the dip\" the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, increased their position 617% quarter-over-quarter for a total of 330,196 shares. While this accounts for a small position in the under management for CPPIB, others have made Tesla a larger portion of their portfolio. Australia-based Hyperion Asset Management has also increased its Tesla stock position by over 20%. As a result of the additional shares, Tesla stock is now over 15% of Hyperions portfolio demonstrating more conviction than Cathie Wood'sARKKwith a ~10% allocation to Tesla stock.\nA Notable Bear\nWhile not a direct seller of shares, Dr. Michael Burry—famed for hisshortposition against subprime mortgage bonds—has announced in Scion Asset Management's 13F the purchase of additional Put Options against Tesla. Scion Asset management has held a bearish Put Option against Tesla since Q1 2021. The aforementioned Put Options — representing 35% of Scion's portfolio and a current market value of ~$731 million— are Scion's largest positions.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2390,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839216353,"gmtCreate":1629160800472,"gmtModify":1631890499571,"author":{"id":"4091706622349130","authorId":"4091706622349130","name":"Stephenlimmh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36bc849c38db97b89159d04639c780dd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4091706622349130","authorIdStr":"4091706622349130"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839216353","repostId":"2160278866","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2151,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839110444,"gmtCreate":1629126065588,"gmtModify":1631890499580,"author":{"id":"4091706622349130","authorId":"4091706622349130","name":"Stephenlimmh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36bc849c38db97b89159d04639c780dd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4091706622349130","authorIdStr":"4091706622349130"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839110444","repostId":"1137961734","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137961734","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1629122094,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1137961734?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-16 21:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple shares reached record high at $150.59 in early trading<blockquote>苹果股价早盘创下150.59美元的历史新高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137961734","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(Aug 16)&nbsp;Apple shares reached record high at $150.59 in early trading.","content":"<p>(Aug 16)&nbsp;Apple shares reached record high at $150.59 in early trading.</p><p><blockquote>（8月16日）苹果股价早盘创下150.59美元的历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2b9a9a385ae4e2c77588a61ab15011b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1868\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple shares reached record high at $150.59 in early trading<blockquote>苹果股价早盘创下150.59美元的历史新高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple shares reached record high at $150.59 in early trading<blockquote>苹果股价早盘创下150.59美元的历史新高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-16 21:54</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Aug 16)&nbsp;Apple shares reached record high at $150.59 in early trading.</p><p><blockquote>（8月16日）苹果股价早盘创下150.59美元的历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2b9a9a385ae4e2c77588a61ab15011b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1868\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137961734","content_text":"(Aug 16) Apple shares reached record high at $150.59 in early trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3411,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897414875,"gmtCreate":1628956937398,"gmtModify":1631890499595,"author":{"id":"4091706622349130","authorId":"4091706622349130","name":"Stephenlimmh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36bc849c38db97b89159d04639c780dd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4091706622349130","authorIdStr":"4091706622349130"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Maybe 0 maybe 1000","listText":"Maybe 0 maybe 1000","text":"Maybe 0 maybe 1000","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/897414875","repostId":"1149823415","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149823415","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628909753,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1149823415?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-14 10:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where Will Virgin Galactic Stock Be In 10 Years?<blockquote>10年后维珍银河股票会在哪里？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149823415","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nVirgin Galactic fell more than 30% post-earnings as the market was disappointed with the \"d","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Virgin Galactic fell more than 30% post-earnings as the market was disappointed with the \"delay\" affecting the launch of its private commercial revenue service.</li>  <li>However, we think the company's \"delay\" is necessary for it to rectify its supply constraints and meet the huge demand that the company is experiencing.</li>  <li>We would also discuss in detail the company's long-term opportunities and threats, and what investors need to monitor moving forward.</li>  <li>Lastly, we present our valuation arguments for long-term investors who are considering adding exposure to Virgin Galactic.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00922c9874a28954c08c613b8dbf378b\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"493\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Nastco/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>维珍银河财报公布后下跌超过 30%，原因是市场对影响其私人商业收入服务推出的“延迟”感到失望。</li><li>然而，我们认为该公司的“延迟”对于其纠正供应限制并满足该公司正在经历的巨大需求是必要的。</li><li>我们还将详细讨论公司的长期机遇和威胁，以及投资者未来需要监控的内容。</li><li>最后，我们为考虑增加维珍银河敞口的长期投资者提出了我们的估值论点。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Nastco/iStock 来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Back in May, when we published our previous article (link to article appendedhere) on Virgin Galactic (SPCE), we clearly highlighted that we think the Street's consensus has been too optimistic about Virgin Galactic's revenue estimates as we thought the projections overstated the market opportunity for suborbital space tourism over the next 10 years to a large extent, based on our research that consulted multiple sources, and we submitted a revised projection.</p><p><blockquote>早在 5 月份，当我们发表上一篇关于维珍银河 (SPCE) 的文章（链接到此处的文章）时，我们明确强调，我们认为华尔街的共识对维珍银河的收入预测过于乐观，因为我们认为这些预测在很大程度上夸大了未来 10 年亚轨道太空旅游的市场机会，基于我们咨询了多个来源的研究，我们提交了修订后的预测。</blockquote></p><p> Since then, the Street has revised its near-term projections downwards as the company recently indicated that they are expecting to commence commercial service only from&nbsp;late Q3'CY22.</p><p><blockquote>此后，华尔街下调了近期预测，因为该公司最近表示，他们预计要到 2022 年第三季度末才开始商业服务。</blockquote></p><p> This article will discuss the circumstances leading to Virgin Galactic's \"delayed\" launch, the long-term opportunities, and the competitive threat facing Virgin's leadership quest in suborbital space tourism.</p><p><blockquote>本文将讨论导致维珍银河“推迟”发射的情况、长期机遇以及维珍在亚轨道太空旅游领域寻求领导地位所面临的竞争威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, we would present our valuation argument for long-term investors considering adding exposure to the stock right now.</p><p><blockquote>最后，我们将为现在考虑增加股票敞口的长期投资者提出我们的估值论点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revisions to Virgin Galactic's Mean Consensus Estimates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>维珍银河平均共识估计的修订</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e15e65a740bf4a03405cd6f31e82bfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>May's consensus revenue estimates &amp; Aug's consensus revenue estimates. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>5 月份的共识收入预期和 8 月份的共识收入预期。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/149d99203d29b3a3e785096ccc509c57\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Scale of revised estimates (Between May and Aug estimates). Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>修订估计数的规模（5月至8月估计数之间）。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Investors should be able to glean clearly that near-term consensus estimates were revised downwards from May's projections that affected CY21 to CY25. However, we think what's important for investors to note is that the Street revised its estimates meaningfully upwards from CY26 to reflect the strong demand that SPCE highlighted during its recent earnings call, which we think demonstrates the company's confidence in a strong revenue runway for the long term, which we would discuss in detail in the subsequent sections.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该能够清楚地了解到，近期共识预测较 5 月份影响 21 财年至 25 财年的预测有所下调。然而，我们认为投资者需要注意的重要一点是，华尔街从 CY26 大幅上调了其预期，以反映 SPCE 在最近的财报看涨期权上强调的强劲需求，我们认为这表明了该公司对长期强劲收入的信心，我们将在后续章节中详细讨论这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Private Commercial Full Revenue Service is Expected from Q3'CY22</b></p><p><blockquote><b>预计从 2022 年第三季度开始提供私人商业全额收入服务</b></blockquote></p><p> SPCE has since lost about 33% of its value since its earnings release on Aug 5, which we think is largely attributed to the near term headwinds resulting from its \"delay\" on commercial service launch as a result of proposed critical enhancements to VSS Unity and the mothership VMS Eve to increase their turnaround time between flights and maintenance significantly.</p><p><blockquote>自 8 月 5 日发布财报以来，SPCE 的价值已下跌约 33%，我们认为这在很大程度上是由于 VSS Unity 和母舰 VMS Eve 提出的关键增强措施导致其商业服务推出“延迟”，从而导致近期不利因素显着增加了飞行和维护之间的周转时间。</blockquote></p><p> As a result of the enhancements that would take place after the completion of Unity 23 revenue-generating flight with the Italian Air Force, the company expects to commence its private commercial full revenue service only from late Q3'CY22, which we think may have taken investors aback as while the market expected full commercial service to begin in 2022, they did not expect it to be as late as Q3.</p><p><blockquote>由于与意大利空军完成 Unity 23 创收飞行后将进行增强，该公司预计仅从 2022 年第三季度末开始其私人商业全额收入服务，我们认为这可能会让投资者感到惊讶，因为虽然市场预计全面商业服务将于 2022 年开始，但他们没想到会迟到第三季度。</blockquote></p><p> However, we think the market has once again chosen to focus on the uncertainty resulting from the near-term revenue service delay and ignore the importance of the enhancements that are expected to improve VMS Eve's turnaround time so significantly that Virgin Galactic emphasized:</p><p><blockquote>然而，我们认为市场再次选择关注近期收入服务延迟带来的不确定性，而忽视了预计将显着缩短 VMS Eve 周转时间的增强功能的重要性，以至于维珍银河强调：</blockquote></p><p>   These enhancements  <i>could potentially allow Eve to fly 100 flights between major maintenance inspections</i>. This is up from the current interval of 10 flights between major inspections today. This will be an incredibly important success factor during the early commercial service period while we are in process of manufacturing additional motherships.  In addition, the company also highlighted that with the enhancements, the company is also \"targeting a reduced turnaround flight between Unity flights of 4 to 5 weeks, and that's down from what has at best, been 7 to 8 weeks for VSS Unity.\"</p><p><blockquote>这些增强<i>可能允许夏娃在重大维护检查之间飞行 100 次航班</i>这比今天主要检查之间10次飞行的间隔有所增加。在我们制造更多母舰的过程中，这将是早期商业服务时期极其重要的成功因素。此外，该公司还强调，通过这些增强功能，该公司还“目标是将 Unity 航班之间的周转航班缩短至 4 至 5 周，这低于 VSS Unity 最多 7 至 8 周的时间。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The Street and the market were certainly disappointed with the announcement, as analysts cut near-term forecasts and downgraded ratings, and Morgan Stanley also emphasized: \"During this heavy maintenance period, Virgin Galactic will not be able to conduct any space flights until summer of 2022.\"</p><p><blockquote>华尔街和市场当然对这一声明感到失望，因为分析师下调了近期预测并下调了评级，摩根士丹利也强调：“在这个繁重的维护期间，维珍银河将无法进行任何太空飞行，直到2022年夏天。”</blockquote></p><p> Sure, no flights. We are certainly not concerned, as the company reiterated the significance of these enhancements:</p><p><blockquote>当然，没有航班。我们当然不担心，因为该公司重申了这些增强功能的重要性：</blockquote></p><p>   These are reasonably robust modifications to Eve. But the reason we are taking the additional scope and the additional time for this enhancement period of Eve is because the flight rate that we will derive from Eve following this enhancement period is we plan to build that to effect. It's almost 10x greater between major inspections and what we've been doing now. That will give us an ability to fly Eve much more frequently, and  <i>that's really important to our initial group of future astronauts as well as the people that we're going to be signing up starting today</i>.\"  If investors could clearly glean the language used by the company in the above sentence, the company is clearly doing it because they are expecting such a robust demand for its space flight services that we think may have exceeded what the company had initially planned for. So while the recent launch event with Sir Richard Branson was largely seen as a major PR coup, it certainly allowed the company to measure the response from interested customers, and the company has clearly indicated that they see such robust demand that they needed to open up a priority list as soon as possible as CEO Michael Colglazier articulated:</p><p><blockquote>这些都是对Eve的相当稳健的修改。但是我们为Eve的这个增强期采取额外的范围和额外的时间的原因是因为我们将在这个增强期之后从Eve得出的飞行率是我们计划建立的。大检查和我们现在所做的差不多是10倍。这将使我们有能力更频繁地驾驶夏娃<i>这对我们未来的第一批宇航员以及我们从今天开始报名的人来说非常重要</i>.”如果投资者能够清楚地理解该公司在上述句子中使用的语言，那么该公司显然正在这样做，因为他们预计对其太空飞行服务的需求如此强劲，我们认为这可能已经超过了该公司最初的计划。因此，虽然最近与理查德·布兰森爵士举行的发布会在很大程度上被视为一次重大的公关政变，但它无疑让公司能够衡量感兴趣的客户的反应，而且该公司已经明确表示，他们看到了如此强劲的需求，以至于他们需要尽快打开优先列表正如首席执行官 Michael Colglazier 所说：</blockquote></p><p>   Leveraging the substantial demand we have seen to our website, I am pleased to announce that we will soon open a priority list for future space travelers who wish to be next in line. We will reach out first to this list with any available inventory following the conclusion of our spacefarer conversion process. Registration for this list will soon be made available on our website...We have an enormous amount of confidence in the total addressable market that's been kind of shown from the response to [Sir Richard Branson's] Unity 22. So we won't be absorbing all of it, but we do think we can make a major step forward here.  We are not sure what the market and other investors think. Still, the company needs to find a way to cope with the demand from what's obviously a heavily supply-constrained situation. The next best thing they would do in the near term is to make the necessary modifications to VMS Eve and VSS Unity to ensure these highly valued potential customers don't go knocking on the door of Jeff Bezos's Blue Origin (BORGN).</p><p><blockquote>利用我们对我们网站的巨大需求，我很高兴地宣布，我们将很快为希望成为下一个太空旅行者开放一个优先名单。在我们的宇航员转换过程结束后，我们将首先联系这份清单，提供任何可用的库存。该名单的注册将很快在我们的网站上提供……我们对整个潜在市场充满信心，这一点从对[理查德·布兰森爵士]Unity 22的反应中可以看出。因此，我们不会吸收所有这些，但我们确实认为我们可以在这里向前迈出一大步。我们不确定市场和其他投资者的想法。尽管如此，该公司仍需要找到一种方法来应对明显严重供应紧张的需求。他们在短期内要做的下一个最好的事情是对VMS Eve和VSS Unity进行必要的修改，以确保这些高价值的潜在客户不会去敲杰夫·贝佐斯的蓝色起源（BORGN）的门。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Are There Really So Many Customers Who Couldn't Wait to Get On Board VSS Unity?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>真的有那么多客户迫不及待地想加入VSS Unity吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Yes, it's pretty incredible to think that the company is expecting so many customers who couldn't wait to get on board. Lisa Rich, the Managing Partner at the venture capital firm Hemisphere Ventures, articulated: \"...I've met so many Virgin [Galactic] ticket&nbsp;holders over the years. And by the way, every one of them has told me that the $250,000 they've spent waiting has paid for itself 10 times over because of the experiences that they have shared over the years.\"</p><p><blockquote>是的，想到该公司期待着这么多迫不及待地想加入的客户，真是令人难以置信。风险投资公司 Hemisphere Ventures 的执行合伙人丽莎·里奇 (Lisa Rich) 表示：“……这些年来，我见过很多维珍 [银河] 机票持有者。顺便说一句，他们每个人都告诉我，他们花了 25 万美元等待已经收回了 10 倍，因为他们多年来分享的经验。”</blockquote></p><p> Investors should clearly understand that the community of 600 future astronauts that have committed to Virgin Galactic's flight services formed a tight-knit group over the years as the company emphasized: \"I think one thing that probably [is] not well known outside of the existing future astronaut is one of the secret weapons of Virgin Galactic is our astronaut office. This is a group of people who have brought together these 600 people into a true community.\"</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该清楚地了解，致力于维珍银河飞行服务的 600 名未来宇航员社区多年来形成了一个紧密团结的团体，正如该公司所强调的那样：“我认为，除了现有的未来宇航员之外，有一件事可能不太为人所知，那就是维珍银河的秘密武器之一就是我们的宇航员办公室。这是一群人将这 600 人聚集在一起，形成了一个真正的社区。”</blockquote></p><p> The company emphasized that these customers really value the journey towards realizing the flight experience as these customers consider it a \"life-transitional journey.\" They see so much value in what Virgin Galactic is doing that the company emphasized that their customers consider joining the community that the company brought together is \"[a] top, top of mind [priority] and very powerful.\"</p><p><blockquote>该公司强调，这些客户非常重视实现飞行体验的旅程，因为这些客户认为这是一次“人生转型之旅”。他们认为维珍银河所做的事情非常有价值，以至于该公司强调，他们的客户认为加入该公司汇集的社区是“首要任务，而且非常强大”。</blockquote></p><p> Importantly, the company also highlighted that they have opened up ticket sales to their 1000-strong \"Spacefarer\" community who has signed up through the company's \"One Small Step\" program, with a price starting from $450K per seat, that's way higher than the $200K to $250K per seat that the initial 600 future astronauts signed up for.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，该公司还强调，他们已经向通过该公司的“一小步”计划注册的1000名“宇航员”社区开放了门票销售，价格从每个座位45万美元起，远高于最初600名未来宇航员注册的每个座位20万至25万美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Virgin Galactic believes that these future astronauts are going to be the \"sales ambassadors\" for the company because of the experience of the strong and tight-knit astronaut community that the company has painstakingly built up: \"...And so I think you can think about lifetime value in several ways. One of them is as people move through being a future astronaut graduate into the astronaut community, I think they're going to come back, and I think it will just be very natural in how people will share the experience<b><i>.</i></b>And I think them sharing the experience will not only let people say how wonderful it was, but it will also bring normalcy to the concept of human spaceflight. So this group of people as we bring them in, the lifetime value is all-around demand and continuing to increase the total addressable market as they go out there and share what they've done.\"</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河认为，这些未来的宇航员将成为公司的“销售大使”，因为他们拥有公司精心打造的强大而紧密团结的宇航员社区的经验：“……所以我认为你可以从几个方面来思考终身价值。其中之一是，当人们从未来的宇航员毕业生进入宇航员社区时，我认为他们会回来，我认为人们分享这种经历是非常自然的。<b><i>.</i></b>我认为他们分享这段经历不仅会让人们说那是多么美妙，还会给人类太空飞行的概念带来常态。因此，当我们把这群人带进来时，他们的终身价值是全面的需求，并随着他们走出去分享他们所做的事情，继续增加整个潜在市场。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Strong Demand Justifies Rapid Scaling Up To Achieve Strong Operating Leverage</b></p><p><blockquote><b>强劲的需求证明快速扩大规模以实现强大的运营杠杆是合理的</b></blockquote></p><p> Astute investors would clearly have recognized that if the company relied on just the fleet of VSS Unity or VSS Imagine to dominate the market for suborbital space tourism, it would have been largely insufficient.</p><p><blockquote>精明的投资者会清楚地认识到，如果该公司仅仅依靠 VSS Unity 或 VSS Imagine 的机队来主导亚轨道太空旅游市场，那么这在很大程度上是不够的。</blockquote></p><p> Based on the company's guidance and the Street's estimates, working through the company's initial community of 600 future astronauts would take a few years at least without the modifications to VMS Eve.</p><p><blockquote>根据该公司的指导和华尔街的估计，在不对 VMS Eve 进行修改的情况下，该公司最初由 600 名未来宇航员组成的社区至少需要几年时间。</blockquote></p><p> The initial cadence (before modifications) for 2022 is a maximum of 10 revenue flights comprising 60 passengers in total. Moving on to 2023, the company could also only fly a maximum of 24 to 36 flights annually, which would allow them to fly a maximum of 144 to 216 astronauts. Thus, it may be at least another 2 years until 2025 before Virgin Galactic could start to work through the order book from the 1000 Spacefarer community, and we think by then, at least some of them would have gone over to Blue Origin. Therefore, the initial cadence really doesn't work, especially with the company preparing to draw up its priority list soon for the interest generated from the Unity 22 PR campaign, and they need to work through the 1,600 future astronauts fast, which in the near term would be solved by Eve's modifications since it allows SPCE to fly 10x more in between major inspections.</p><p><blockquote>2022年的初始节奏（修改前）是最多10个收入航班，总共包括60名乘客。展望 2023 年，该公司每年最多只能飞行 24 至 36 次航班，这将允许他们最多搭载 144 至 216 名宇航员。因此，到2025年，维珍银河可能至少还需要两年时间才能开始处理1000名宇航员社区的订单，我们认为到那时，至少他们中的一些人会去蓝色起源。因此，最初的节奏确实不起作用，特别是该公司准备很快为 Unity 22 公关活动产生的兴趣制定优先列表，他们需要快速处理 1,600 名未来宇航员，这将在不久的将来通过 Eve 的修改来解决，因为它允许 SPCE 在重大检查之间的飞行次数增加 10 倍。</blockquote></p><p> However, the company still thinks that would still be insufficient to cater to the level of demand that they have been experiencing. As a result, they announced that they would be building their next-gen Delta class vehicles \"that are capable of turning on a 1-week interval.\" This class of ships is expected to form the majority of the company's future capacity over time.</p><p><blockquote>然而，该公司仍然认为这仍然不足以满足他们所经历的需求水平。因此，他们宣布将制造下一代 Delta 级车辆，“能够每隔 1 周启动一次”。随着时间的推移，此类船舶预计将构成该公司未来运力的大部分。</blockquote></p><p> Part of the reason that the company needed to raise the&nbsp;$500M equity&nbsp;offering recently is that they are ready to start developing and build the Delta class vehicles that would be highly instrumental towards meeting their long term capacity and cadence, that VSS Unity and VSS Imagine would never be able to meet sufficiently.</p><p><blockquote>该公司最近需要筹集 5 亿美元股权发行的部分原因是，他们已准备好开始开发和制造 Delta 级车辆，这将极大地有助于满足其长期容量和节奏，VSS Unity 和 VSS Imagine 永远无法满足。</blockquote></p><p> Crucially, the company highlighted that by ramping production and capacity through the Delta class, they would be able to achieve significant operating leverage as Virgin Galactic emphasized: \"...And that's why we're so focused on getting the Delta class with next generation of mothership. That's where we really get efficiency. That's where we get scale. That's where you'll really see the flow-through come because we'll have a fixed cost basis that is easy for us to communicate and easy for us to contribute the trade for efficiency down the road.\"</p><p><blockquote>至关重要的是，该公司强调，通过 Delta 级提升产量和运力，他们将能够实现显著的运营杠杆，正如维珍银河所强调的那样：“.....这就是为什么我们如此专注于获得下一代母舰的 Delta 级。这才是我们真正获得效率的地方。这才是我们获得规模的地方。这才是你真正看到流量的地方，因为我们将有一个固定的成本基础，这对我们来说很容易沟通，也很容易为未来的效率做出贡献。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Competing Against Blue Origin</b></p><p><blockquote><b>与蓝色起源竞争</b></blockquote></p><p> We think operating leverage will be the name of the game here, and Virgin Galactic clearly recognizes that it would be vital for the company to operate at a sufficient scale justified by its demand drivers to compete strongly against Blue Origin.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为运营杠杆将是这里的游戏名称，维珍银河清楚地认识到，对于该公司来说，以其需求驱动因素所证明的足够规模运营对于与蓝色起源进行强有力的竞争至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> While we don't think Blue Origin's main game is in suborbital space tourism, as Jeff Bezos also highlighted previously that: \"The architecture&nbsp;and the technology we have chosen is complete overkill for a suborbital tourism mission.”</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们不认为蓝色起源的主要游戏是亚轨道太空旅游，但正如杰夫·贝索斯之前强调的那样：“我们选择的架构和技术对于亚轨道旅游任务来说完全是矫枉过正。”</blockquote></p><p> We think Blue Origin's main market certainly goes beyond suborbital space tourism that Morgan Stanley highlighted that \"Mr. Bezos’ company is seeking business in a space market that will triple in size to more than $1 trillion in annual sales by 2040, assuming rapid technological developments enable routine moon landings, asteroid mining and space tourism.\"</p><p><blockquote>我们认为，蓝色起源的主要市场肯定超出了摩根士丹利强调的亚轨道太空旅游，“贝佐斯先生的公司正在太空市场寻求业务，到 2040 年，该市场的规模将扩大两倍，年销售额将超过 1 万亿美元，前提是技术的快速发展能够实现常规登月、小行星采矿和太空旅游”。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, while Blue Origin focuses on building up its Space colonies' vision over the long term, we think they would most certainly be able to ramp their production quickly and gain significant operating leverage. The key is how those advantages translate to its suborbital space tourism segment in the near term would be key to determine Virgin Galactic's leadership.</p><p><blockquote>因此，虽然蓝色起源专注于建立其太空殖民地的长期愿景，但我们认为他们肯定能够快速提高产量并获得显着的运营杠杆。关键是这些优势如何在短期内转化为其亚轨道太空旅游领域，这将是决定维珍银河领先地位的关键。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One thing is for sure. Both companies expect the price for the suborbital space tourism tickets to come down substantially over time as production scales up and technologies improve. Thus, the key for Virgin Galactic's leadership and survival in this market is to gain operating leverage as quickly as possible to build up those advantages while Blue Origin has its plate full with its various projects across the entire spectrum.</p><p><blockquote>有一点是肯定的。两家公司预计，随着生产规模的扩大和技术的进步，亚轨道太空旅游门票的价格将随着时间的推移大幅下降。因此，维珍银河在这个市场上的领导地位和生存的关键是尽快获得运营杠杆以建立这些优势，而蓝色起源则忙于整个领域的各种项目。</blockquote></p><p> Virgin Galactic wants to make suborbital space tourism much more accessible, and the key to achieving that is to drive prices down through operating leverage achieved by ramping up production. As a result, we think the company's Delta class plans are highly pivotal to Virgin Galactic's leadership against Blue Origin and highly encourage investors to keep their eyes closely focused on these plans.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河希望让亚轨道太空旅游更容易获得，而实现这一目标的关键是通过提高产量实现的运营杠杆来降低价格。因此，我们认为该公司的 Delta class 计划对于维珍银河对抗蓝色起源的领导地位至关重要，并强烈鼓励投资者密切关注这些计划。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Free Cash Flow Forecast &amp; Valuations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>自由现金流预测和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48be5e8da375fdc72591e31b96a223f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>EBITDA margin forecast &amp; CapEx margin forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EBITDA 利润率预测和资本支出利润率预测。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57509b52b1c0ac46a44e7a0dd619bd97\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>EV / Fwd EBITDA trend. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV / Fwd EBITDA 趋势。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Despite the delay in launching full revenue service to Q3'22, the Street's estimates expect the company to be FCF profitable from the end of FY24. We think that's important as it demonstrates the long-term cash flow potential for the company's business in this market, where only BORGN and SPCE are the clear leaders right now.</p><p><blockquote>尽管推迟到 2022 年第三季度推出全面收入服务，但华尔街预计该公司将从 2024 财年末开始实现自由现金流盈利。我们认为这很重要，因为它展示了该公司业务在这个市场的长期现金流潜力，目前只有 BORGN 和 SPCE 是该市场的明显领导者。</blockquote></p><p> However, the valuations still look expensive at 18.5x by the end of 2030, 36% above its aerospace and defense peers comp set mean of 13.61x.</p><p><blockquote>然而，到 2030 年底，估值看起来仍然很昂贵，为 18.5 倍，比航空航天和国防同行的平均薪酬 13.61 倍高出 36%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1084f3186f9732fad8d28b824c65de2a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"472\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Street's mean price target. Source: TIKR</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Street 的平均价格目标。资料来源：TIKR</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The Street is also not too optimistic, as the mean target price of $35.55 is a mere 13.5% above the last closing price, as analysts focused on SPCE's near term \"headwind\" of moving its revenue service to Q3'CY22, which we think is highly important to its long term competitive advantage.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街也不太乐观，因为平均目标价 35.55 美元仅比最后收盘价高出 13.5%，因为分析师关注的是 SPCE 将其收入服务转移到 2022 年第三季度的近期“逆风”，我们认为这对其长期竞争优势非常重要。</blockquote></p><p> While we are really excited about the company's long-term prospects, as well as its ambition to bring suborbital space tourism to the world, we are not so sure about Virgin Galactic's expensively-looking valuation.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们对该公司的长期前景以及将亚轨道太空旅游带给世界的雄心感到非常兴奋，但我们对维珍银河看起来昂贵的估值不太确定。</blockquote></p><p> <b>SPCE Stock Price Action and Trend Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>SPCE 股票价格走势和趋势分析</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f872b3e8670eac6d5ca4d8afce15200\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While we don't think SPCE would be a suitable stock for long-term investors given its expensive valuation, we think position traders may still find an opportunity lurking around the horizon with this stock.</p><p><blockquote>虽然鉴于其昂贵的估值，我们认为 SPCE 不是一只适合长期投资者的股票，但我们认为头寸交易者仍然可能会发现这只股票潜伏的机会。</blockquote></p><p> SPCE is strongly supported along its 50-week moving average dynamic support level that has held strongly since 2020, including the recent false break to the downside (bear trap) it saw in May. Therefore, position traders keen to trade this stock may find an opportunity once the price action resolves itself in the next couple of weeks, we hope.</p><p><blockquote>SPCE 受到 50 周移动平均线动态支撑位的强力支撑，该支撑位自 2020 年以来一直保持强劲，包括最近 5 月份出现的下行（熊市陷阱）的假突破。因此，我们希望，一旦价格走势在未来几周内自行解决，热衷于交易该股票的头寸交易者可能会找到机会。</blockquote></p><p> In summary, we assign a neutral rating to SPCE for long-term investors.</p><p><blockquote>总之，对于长期投资者，我们给予 SPCE 中性评级。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Will Virgin Galactic Stock Be In 10 Years?<blockquote>10年后维珍银河股票会在哪里？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Will Virgin Galactic Stock Be In 10 Years?<blockquote>10年后维珍银河股票会在哪里？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-14 10:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Virgin Galactic fell more than 30% post-earnings as the market was disappointed with the \"delay\" affecting the launch of its private commercial revenue service.</li>  <li>However, we think the company's \"delay\" is necessary for it to rectify its supply constraints and meet the huge demand that the company is experiencing.</li>  <li>We would also discuss in detail the company's long-term opportunities and threats, and what investors need to monitor moving forward.</li>  <li>Lastly, we present our valuation arguments for long-term investors who are considering adding exposure to Virgin Galactic.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00922c9874a28954c08c613b8dbf378b\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"493\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Nastco/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>维珍银河财报公布后下跌超过 30%，原因是市场对影响其私人商业收入服务推出的“延迟”感到失望。</li><li>然而，我们认为该公司的“延迟”对于其纠正供应限制并满足该公司正在经历的巨大需求是必要的。</li><li>我们还将详细讨论公司的长期机遇和威胁，以及投资者未来需要监控的内容。</li><li>最后，我们为考虑增加维珍银河敞口的长期投资者提出了我们的估值论点。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Nastco/iStock 来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Back in May, when we published our previous article (link to article appendedhere) on Virgin Galactic (SPCE), we clearly highlighted that we think the Street's consensus has been too optimistic about Virgin Galactic's revenue estimates as we thought the projections overstated the market opportunity for suborbital space tourism over the next 10 years to a large extent, based on our research that consulted multiple sources, and we submitted a revised projection.</p><p><blockquote>早在 5 月份，当我们发表上一篇关于维珍银河 (SPCE) 的文章（链接到此处的文章）时，我们明确强调，我们认为华尔街的共识对维珍银河的收入预测过于乐观，因为我们认为这些预测在很大程度上夸大了未来 10 年亚轨道太空旅游的市场机会，基于我们咨询了多个来源的研究，我们提交了修订后的预测。</blockquote></p><p> Since then, the Street has revised its near-term projections downwards as the company recently indicated that they are expecting to commence commercial service only from&nbsp;late Q3'CY22.</p><p><blockquote>此后，华尔街下调了近期预测，因为该公司最近表示，他们预计要到 2022 年第三季度末才开始商业服务。</blockquote></p><p> This article will discuss the circumstances leading to Virgin Galactic's \"delayed\" launch, the long-term opportunities, and the competitive threat facing Virgin's leadership quest in suborbital space tourism.</p><p><blockquote>本文将讨论导致维珍银河“推迟”发射的情况、长期机遇以及维珍在亚轨道太空旅游领域寻求领导地位所面临的竞争威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, we would present our valuation argument for long-term investors considering adding exposure to the stock right now.</p><p><blockquote>最后，我们将为现在考虑增加股票敞口的长期投资者提出我们的估值论点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revisions to Virgin Galactic's Mean Consensus Estimates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>维珍银河平均共识估计的修订</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e15e65a740bf4a03405cd6f31e82bfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>May's consensus revenue estimates &amp; Aug's consensus revenue estimates. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>5 月份的共识收入预期和 8 月份的共识收入预期。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/149d99203d29b3a3e785096ccc509c57\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Scale of revised estimates (Between May and Aug estimates). Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>修订估计数的规模（5月至8月估计数之间）。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Investors should be able to glean clearly that near-term consensus estimates were revised downwards from May's projections that affected CY21 to CY25. However, we think what's important for investors to note is that the Street revised its estimates meaningfully upwards from CY26 to reflect the strong demand that SPCE highlighted during its recent earnings call, which we think demonstrates the company's confidence in a strong revenue runway for the long term, which we would discuss in detail in the subsequent sections.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该能够清楚地了解到，近期共识预测较 5 月份影响 21 财年至 25 财年的预测有所下调。然而，我们认为投资者需要注意的重要一点是，华尔街从 CY26 大幅上调了其预期，以反映 SPCE 在最近的财报看涨期权上强调的强劲需求，我们认为这表明了该公司对长期强劲收入的信心，我们将在后续章节中详细讨论这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Private Commercial Full Revenue Service is Expected from Q3'CY22</b></p><p><blockquote><b>预计从 2022 年第三季度开始提供私人商业全额收入服务</b></blockquote></p><p> SPCE has since lost about 33% of its value since its earnings release on Aug 5, which we think is largely attributed to the near term headwinds resulting from its \"delay\" on commercial service launch as a result of proposed critical enhancements to VSS Unity and the mothership VMS Eve to increase their turnaround time between flights and maintenance significantly.</p><p><blockquote>自 8 月 5 日发布财报以来，SPCE 的价值已下跌约 33%，我们认为这在很大程度上是由于 VSS Unity 和母舰 VMS Eve 提出的关键增强措施导致其商业服务推出“延迟”，从而导致近期不利因素显着增加了飞行和维护之间的周转时间。</blockquote></p><p> As a result of the enhancements that would take place after the completion of Unity 23 revenue-generating flight with the Italian Air Force, the company expects to commence its private commercial full revenue service only from late Q3'CY22, which we think may have taken investors aback as while the market expected full commercial service to begin in 2022, they did not expect it to be as late as Q3.</p><p><blockquote>由于与意大利空军完成 Unity 23 创收飞行后将进行增强，该公司预计仅从 2022 年第三季度末开始其私人商业全额收入服务，我们认为这可能会让投资者感到惊讶，因为虽然市场预计全面商业服务将于 2022 年开始，但他们没想到会迟到第三季度。</blockquote></p><p> However, we think the market has once again chosen to focus on the uncertainty resulting from the near-term revenue service delay and ignore the importance of the enhancements that are expected to improve VMS Eve's turnaround time so significantly that Virgin Galactic emphasized:</p><p><blockquote>然而，我们认为市场再次选择关注近期收入服务延迟带来的不确定性，而忽视了预计将显着缩短 VMS Eve 周转时间的增强功能的重要性，以至于维珍银河强调：</blockquote></p><p>   These enhancements  <i>could potentially allow Eve to fly 100 flights between major maintenance inspections</i>. This is up from the current interval of 10 flights between major inspections today. This will be an incredibly important success factor during the early commercial service period while we are in process of manufacturing additional motherships.  In addition, the company also highlighted that with the enhancements, the company is also \"targeting a reduced turnaround flight between Unity flights of 4 to 5 weeks, and that's down from what has at best, been 7 to 8 weeks for VSS Unity.\"</p><p><blockquote>这些增强<i>可能允许夏娃在重大维护检查之间飞行 100 次航班</i>这比今天主要检查之间10次飞行的间隔有所增加。在我们制造更多母舰的过程中，这将是早期商业服务时期极其重要的成功因素。此外，该公司还强调，通过这些增强功能，该公司还“目标是将 Unity 航班之间的周转航班缩短至 4 至 5 周，这低于 VSS Unity 最多 7 至 8 周的时间。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The Street and the market were certainly disappointed with the announcement, as analysts cut near-term forecasts and downgraded ratings, and Morgan Stanley also emphasized: \"During this heavy maintenance period, Virgin Galactic will not be able to conduct any space flights until summer of 2022.\"</p><p><blockquote>华尔街和市场当然对这一声明感到失望，因为分析师下调了近期预测并下调了评级，摩根士丹利也强调：“在这个繁重的维护期间，维珍银河将无法进行任何太空飞行，直到2022年夏天。”</blockquote></p><p> Sure, no flights. We are certainly not concerned, as the company reiterated the significance of these enhancements:</p><p><blockquote>当然，没有航班。我们当然不担心，因为该公司重申了这些增强功能的重要性：</blockquote></p><p>   These are reasonably robust modifications to Eve. But the reason we are taking the additional scope and the additional time for this enhancement period of Eve is because the flight rate that we will derive from Eve following this enhancement period is we plan to build that to effect. It's almost 10x greater between major inspections and what we've been doing now. That will give us an ability to fly Eve much more frequently, and  <i>that's really important to our initial group of future astronauts as well as the people that we're going to be signing up starting today</i>.\"  If investors could clearly glean the language used by the company in the above sentence, the company is clearly doing it because they are expecting such a robust demand for its space flight services that we think may have exceeded what the company had initially planned for. So while the recent launch event with Sir Richard Branson was largely seen as a major PR coup, it certainly allowed the company to measure the response from interested customers, and the company has clearly indicated that they see such robust demand that they needed to open up a priority list as soon as possible as CEO Michael Colglazier articulated:</p><p><blockquote>这些都是对Eve的相当稳健的修改。但是我们为Eve的这个增强期采取额外的范围和额外的时间的原因是因为我们将在这个增强期之后从Eve得出的飞行率是我们计划建立的。大检查和我们现在所做的差不多是10倍。这将使我们有能力更频繁地驾驶夏娃<i>这对我们未来的第一批宇航员以及我们从今天开始报名的人来说非常重要</i>.”如果投资者能够清楚地理解该公司在上述句子中使用的语言，那么该公司显然正在这样做，因为他们预计对其太空飞行服务的需求如此强劲，我们认为这可能已经超过了该公司最初的计划。因此，虽然最近与理查德·布兰森爵士举行的发布会在很大程度上被视为一次重大的公关政变，但它无疑让公司能够衡量感兴趣的客户的反应，而且该公司已经明确表示，他们看到了如此强劲的需求，以至于他们需要尽快打开优先列表正如首席执行官 Michael Colglazier 所说：</blockquote></p><p>   Leveraging the substantial demand we have seen to our website, I am pleased to announce that we will soon open a priority list for future space travelers who wish to be next in line. We will reach out first to this list with any available inventory following the conclusion of our spacefarer conversion process. Registration for this list will soon be made available on our website...We have an enormous amount of confidence in the total addressable market that's been kind of shown from the response to [Sir Richard Branson's] Unity 22. So we won't be absorbing all of it, but we do think we can make a major step forward here.  We are not sure what the market and other investors think. Still, the company needs to find a way to cope with the demand from what's obviously a heavily supply-constrained situation. The next best thing they would do in the near term is to make the necessary modifications to VMS Eve and VSS Unity to ensure these highly valued potential customers don't go knocking on the door of Jeff Bezos's Blue Origin (BORGN).</p><p><blockquote>利用我们对我们网站的巨大需求，我很高兴地宣布，我们将很快为希望成为下一个太空旅行者开放一个优先名单。在我们的宇航员转换过程结束后，我们将首先联系这份清单，提供任何可用的库存。该名单的注册将很快在我们的网站上提供……我们对整个潜在市场充满信心，这一点从对[理查德·布兰森爵士]Unity 22的反应中可以看出。因此，我们不会吸收所有这些，但我们确实认为我们可以在这里向前迈出一大步。我们不确定市场和其他投资者的想法。尽管如此，该公司仍需要找到一种方法来应对明显严重供应紧张的需求。他们在短期内要做的下一个最好的事情是对VMS Eve和VSS Unity进行必要的修改，以确保这些高价值的潜在客户不会去敲杰夫·贝佐斯的蓝色起源（BORGN）的门。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Are There Really So Many Customers Who Couldn't Wait to Get On Board VSS Unity?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>真的有那么多客户迫不及待地想加入VSS Unity吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Yes, it's pretty incredible to think that the company is expecting so many customers who couldn't wait to get on board. Lisa Rich, the Managing Partner at the venture capital firm Hemisphere Ventures, articulated: \"...I've met so many Virgin [Galactic] ticket&nbsp;holders over the years. And by the way, every one of them has told me that the $250,000 they've spent waiting has paid for itself 10 times over because of the experiences that they have shared over the years.\"</p><p><blockquote>是的，想到该公司期待着这么多迫不及待地想加入的客户，真是令人难以置信。风险投资公司 Hemisphere Ventures 的执行合伙人丽莎·里奇 (Lisa Rich) 表示：“……这些年来，我见过很多维珍 [银河] 机票持有者。顺便说一句，他们每个人都告诉我，他们花了 25 万美元等待已经收回了 10 倍，因为他们多年来分享的经验。”</blockquote></p><p> Investors should clearly understand that the community of 600 future astronauts that have committed to Virgin Galactic's flight services formed a tight-knit group over the years as the company emphasized: \"I think one thing that probably [is] not well known outside of the existing future astronaut is one of the secret weapons of Virgin Galactic is our astronaut office. This is a group of people who have brought together these 600 people into a true community.\"</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该清楚地了解，致力于维珍银河飞行服务的 600 名未来宇航员社区多年来形成了一个紧密团结的团体，正如该公司所强调的那样：“我认为，除了现有的未来宇航员之外，有一件事可能不太为人所知，那就是维珍银河的秘密武器之一就是我们的宇航员办公室。这是一群人将这 600 人聚集在一起，形成了一个真正的社区。”</blockquote></p><p> The company emphasized that these customers really value the journey towards realizing the flight experience as these customers consider it a \"life-transitional journey.\" They see so much value in what Virgin Galactic is doing that the company emphasized that their customers consider joining the community that the company brought together is \"[a] top, top of mind [priority] and very powerful.\"</p><p><blockquote>该公司强调，这些客户非常重视实现飞行体验的旅程，因为这些客户认为这是一次“人生转型之旅”。他们认为维珍银河所做的事情非常有价值，以至于该公司强调，他们的客户认为加入该公司汇集的社区是“首要任务，而且非常强大”。</blockquote></p><p> Importantly, the company also highlighted that they have opened up ticket sales to their 1000-strong \"Spacefarer\" community who has signed up through the company's \"One Small Step\" program, with a price starting from $450K per seat, that's way higher than the $200K to $250K per seat that the initial 600 future astronauts signed up for.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，该公司还强调，他们已经向通过该公司的“一小步”计划注册的1000名“宇航员”社区开放了门票销售，价格从每个座位45万美元起，远高于最初600名未来宇航员注册的每个座位20万至25万美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Virgin Galactic believes that these future astronauts are going to be the \"sales ambassadors\" for the company because of the experience of the strong and tight-knit astronaut community that the company has painstakingly built up: \"...And so I think you can think about lifetime value in several ways. One of them is as people move through being a future astronaut graduate into the astronaut community, I think they're going to come back, and I think it will just be very natural in how people will share the experience<b><i>.</i></b>And I think them sharing the experience will not only let people say how wonderful it was, but it will also bring normalcy to the concept of human spaceflight. So this group of people as we bring them in, the lifetime value is all-around demand and continuing to increase the total addressable market as they go out there and share what they've done.\"</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河认为，这些未来的宇航员将成为公司的“销售大使”，因为他们拥有公司精心打造的强大而紧密团结的宇航员社区的经验：“……所以我认为你可以从几个方面来思考终身价值。其中之一是，当人们从未来的宇航员毕业生进入宇航员社区时，我认为他们会回来，我认为人们分享这种经历是非常自然的。<b><i>.</i></b>我认为他们分享这段经历不仅会让人们说那是多么美妙，还会给人类太空飞行的概念带来常态。因此，当我们把这群人带进来时，他们的终身价值是全面的需求，并随着他们走出去分享他们所做的事情，继续增加整个潜在市场。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Strong Demand Justifies Rapid Scaling Up To Achieve Strong Operating Leverage</b></p><p><blockquote><b>强劲的需求证明快速扩大规模以实现强大的运营杠杆是合理的</b></blockquote></p><p> Astute investors would clearly have recognized that if the company relied on just the fleet of VSS Unity or VSS Imagine to dominate the market for suborbital space tourism, it would have been largely insufficient.</p><p><blockquote>精明的投资者会清楚地认识到，如果该公司仅仅依靠 VSS Unity 或 VSS Imagine 的机队来主导亚轨道太空旅游市场，那么这在很大程度上是不够的。</blockquote></p><p> Based on the company's guidance and the Street's estimates, working through the company's initial community of 600 future astronauts would take a few years at least without the modifications to VMS Eve.</p><p><blockquote>根据该公司的指导和华尔街的估计，在不对 VMS Eve 进行修改的情况下，该公司最初由 600 名未来宇航员组成的社区至少需要几年时间。</blockquote></p><p> The initial cadence (before modifications) for 2022 is a maximum of 10 revenue flights comprising 60 passengers in total. Moving on to 2023, the company could also only fly a maximum of 24 to 36 flights annually, which would allow them to fly a maximum of 144 to 216 astronauts. Thus, it may be at least another 2 years until 2025 before Virgin Galactic could start to work through the order book from the 1000 Spacefarer community, and we think by then, at least some of them would have gone over to Blue Origin. Therefore, the initial cadence really doesn't work, especially with the company preparing to draw up its priority list soon for the interest generated from the Unity 22 PR campaign, and they need to work through the 1,600 future astronauts fast, which in the near term would be solved by Eve's modifications since it allows SPCE to fly 10x more in between major inspections.</p><p><blockquote>2022年的初始节奏（修改前）是最多10个收入航班，总共包括60名乘客。展望 2023 年，该公司每年最多只能飞行 24 至 36 次航班，这将允许他们最多搭载 144 至 216 名宇航员。因此，到2025年，维珍银河可能至少还需要两年时间才能开始处理1000名宇航员社区的订单，我们认为到那时，至少他们中的一些人会去蓝色起源。因此，最初的节奏确实不起作用，特别是该公司准备很快为 Unity 22 公关活动产生的兴趣制定优先列表，他们需要快速处理 1,600 名未来宇航员，这将在不久的将来通过 Eve 的修改来解决，因为它允许 SPCE 在重大检查之间的飞行次数增加 10 倍。</blockquote></p><p> However, the company still thinks that would still be insufficient to cater to the level of demand that they have been experiencing. As a result, they announced that they would be building their next-gen Delta class vehicles \"that are capable of turning on a 1-week interval.\" This class of ships is expected to form the majority of the company's future capacity over time.</p><p><blockquote>然而，该公司仍然认为这仍然不足以满足他们所经历的需求水平。因此，他们宣布将制造下一代 Delta 级车辆，“能够每隔 1 周启动一次”。随着时间的推移，此类船舶预计将构成该公司未来运力的大部分。</blockquote></p><p> Part of the reason that the company needed to raise the&nbsp;$500M equity&nbsp;offering recently is that they are ready to start developing and build the Delta class vehicles that would be highly instrumental towards meeting their long term capacity and cadence, that VSS Unity and VSS Imagine would never be able to meet sufficiently.</p><p><blockquote>该公司最近需要筹集 5 亿美元股权发行的部分原因是，他们已准备好开始开发和制造 Delta 级车辆，这将极大地有助于满足其长期容量和节奏，VSS Unity 和 VSS Imagine 永远无法满足。</blockquote></p><p> Crucially, the company highlighted that by ramping production and capacity through the Delta class, they would be able to achieve significant operating leverage as Virgin Galactic emphasized: \"...And that's why we're so focused on getting the Delta class with next generation of mothership. That's where we really get efficiency. That's where we get scale. That's where you'll really see the flow-through come because we'll have a fixed cost basis that is easy for us to communicate and easy for us to contribute the trade for efficiency down the road.\"</p><p><blockquote>至关重要的是，该公司强调，通过 Delta 级提升产量和运力，他们将能够实现显著的运营杠杆，正如维珍银河所强调的那样：“.....这就是为什么我们如此专注于获得下一代母舰的 Delta 级。这才是我们真正获得效率的地方。这才是我们获得规模的地方。这才是你真正看到流量的地方，因为我们将有一个固定的成本基础，这对我们来说很容易沟通，也很容易为未来的效率做出贡献。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Competing Against Blue Origin</b></p><p><blockquote><b>与蓝色起源竞争</b></blockquote></p><p> We think operating leverage will be the name of the game here, and Virgin Galactic clearly recognizes that it would be vital for the company to operate at a sufficient scale justified by its demand drivers to compete strongly against Blue Origin.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为运营杠杆将是这里的游戏名称，维珍银河清楚地认识到，对于该公司来说，以其需求驱动因素所证明的足够规模运营对于与蓝色起源进行强有力的竞争至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> While we don't think Blue Origin's main game is in suborbital space tourism, as Jeff Bezos also highlighted previously that: \"The architecture&nbsp;and the technology we have chosen is complete overkill for a suborbital tourism mission.”</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们不认为蓝色起源的主要游戏是亚轨道太空旅游，但正如杰夫·贝索斯之前强调的那样：“我们选择的架构和技术对于亚轨道旅游任务来说完全是矫枉过正。”</blockquote></p><p> We think Blue Origin's main market certainly goes beyond suborbital space tourism that Morgan Stanley highlighted that \"Mr. Bezos’ company is seeking business in a space market that will triple in size to more than $1 trillion in annual sales by 2040, assuming rapid technological developments enable routine moon landings, asteroid mining and space tourism.\"</p><p><blockquote>我们认为，蓝色起源的主要市场肯定超出了摩根士丹利强调的亚轨道太空旅游，“贝佐斯先生的公司正在太空市场寻求业务，到 2040 年，该市场的规模将扩大两倍，年销售额将超过 1 万亿美元，前提是技术的快速发展能够实现常规登月、小行星采矿和太空旅游”。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, while Blue Origin focuses on building up its Space colonies' vision over the long term, we think they would most certainly be able to ramp their production quickly and gain significant operating leverage. The key is how those advantages translate to its suborbital space tourism segment in the near term would be key to determine Virgin Galactic's leadership.</p><p><blockquote>因此，虽然蓝色起源专注于建立其太空殖民地的长期愿景，但我们认为他们肯定能够快速提高产量并获得显着的运营杠杆。关键是这些优势如何在短期内转化为其亚轨道太空旅游领域，这将是决定维珍银河领先地位的关键。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One thing is for sure. Both companies expect the price for the suborbital space tourism tickets to come down substantially over time as production scales up and technologies improve. Thus, the key for Virgin Galactic's leadership and survival in this market is to gain operating leverage as quickly as possible to build up those advantages while Blue Origin has its plate full with its various projects across the entire spectrum.</p><p><blockquote>有一点是肯定的。两家公司预计，随着生产规模的扩大和技术的进步，亚轨道太空旅游门票的价格将随着时间的推移大幅下降。因此，维珍银河在这个市场上的领导地位和生存的关键是尽快获得运营杠杆以建立这些优势，而蓝色起源则忙于整个领域的各种项目。</blockquote></p><p> Virgin Galactic wants to make suborbital space tourism much more accessible, and the key to achieving that is to drive prices down through operating leverage achieved by ramping up production. As a result, we think the company's Delta class plans are highly pivotal to Virgin Galactic's leadership against Blue Origin and highly encourage investors to keep their eyes closely focused on these plans.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河希望让亚轨道太空旅游更容易获得，而实现这一目标的关键是通过提高产量实现的运营杠杆来降低价格。因此，我们认为该公司的 Delta class 计划对于维珍银河对抗蓝色起源的领导地位至关重要，并强烈鼓励投资者密切关注这些计划。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Free Cash Flow Forecast &amp; Valuations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>自由现金流预测和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48be5e8da375fdc72591e31b96a223f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>EBITDA margin forecast &amp; CapEx margin forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EBITDA 利润率预测和资本支出利润率预测。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57509b52b1c0ac46a44e7a0dd619bd97\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>EV / Fwd EBITDA trend. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV / Fwd EBITDA 趋势。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Despite the delay in launching full revenue service to Q3'22, the Street's estimates expect the company to be FCF profitable from the end of FY24. We think that's important as it demonstrates the long-term cash flow potential for the company's business in this market, where only BORGN and SPCE are the clear leaders right now.</p><p><blockquote>尽管推迟到 2022 年第三季度推出全面收入服务，但华尔街预计该公司将从 2024 财年末开始实现自由现金流盈利。我们认为这很重要，因为它展示了该公司业务在这个市场的长期现金流潜力，目前只有 BORGN 和 SPCE 是该市场的明显领导者。</blockquote></p><p> However, the valuations still look expensive at 18.5x by the end of 2030, 36% above its aerospace and defense peers comp set mean of 13.61x.</p><p><blockquote>然而，到 2030 年底，估值看起来仍然很昂贵，为 18.5 倍，比航空航天和国防同行的平均薪酬 13.61 倍高出 36%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1084f3186f9732fad8d28b824c65de2a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"472\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Street's mean price target. Source: TIKR</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Street 的平均价格目标。资料来源：TIKR</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The Street is also not too optimistic, as the mean target price of $35.55 is a mere 13.5% above the last closing price, as analysts focused on SPCE's near term \"headwind\" of moving its revenue service to Q3'CY22, which we think is highly important to its long term competitive advantage.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街也不太乐观，因为平均目标价 35.55 美元仅比最后收盘价高出 13.5%，因为分析师关注的是 SPCE 将其收入服务转移到 2022 年第三季度的近期“逆风”，我们认为这对其长期竞争优势非常重要。</blockquote></p><p> While we are really excited about the company's long-term prospects, as well as its ambition to bring suborbital space tourism to the world, we are not so sure about Virgin Galactic's expensively-looking valuation.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们对该公司的长期前景以及将亚轨道太空旅游带给世界的雄心感到非常兴奋，但我们对维珍银河看起来昂贵的估值不太确定。</blockquote></p><p> <b>SPCE Stock Price Action and Trend Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>SPCE 股票价格走势和趋势分析</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f872b3e8670eac6d5ca4d8afce15200\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While we don't think SPCE would be a suitable stock for long-term investors given its expensive valuation, we think position traders may still find an opportunity lurking around the horizon with this stock.</p><p><blockquote>虽然鉴于其昂贵的估值，我们认为 SPCE 不是一只适合长期投资者的股票，但我们认为头寸交易者仍然可能会发现这只股票潜伏的机会。</blockquote></p><p> SPCE is strongly supported along its 50-week moving average dynamic support level that has held strongly since 2020, including the recent false break to the downside (bear trap) it saw in May. Therefore, position traders keen to trade this stock may find an opportunity once the price action resolves itself in the next couple of weeks, we hope.</p><p><blockquote>SPCE 受到 50 周移动平均线动态支撑位的强力支撑，该支撑位自 2020 年以来一直保持强劲，包括最近 5 月份出现的下行（熊市陷阱）的假突破。因此，我们希望，一旦价格走势在未来几周内自行解决，热衷于交易该股票的头寸交易者可能会找到机会。</blockquote></p><p> In summary, we assign a neutral rating to SPCE for long-term investors.</p><p><blockquote>总之，对于长期投资者，我们给予 SPCE 中性评级。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449270-virgin-galactic-stock-10-years\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPCE":"维珍银河"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449270-virgin-galactic-stock-10-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149823415","content_text":"Summary\n\nVirgin Galactic fell more than 30% post-earnings as the market was disappointed with the \"delay\" affecting the launch of its private commercial revenue service.\nHowever, we think the company's \"delay\" is necessary for it to rectify its supply constraints and meet the huge demand that the company is experiencing.\nWe would also discuss in detail the company's long-term opportunities and threats, and what investors need to monitor moving forward.\nLastly, we present our valuation arguments for long-term investors who are considering adding exposure to Virgin Galactic.\n\nNastco/iStock via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nBack in May, when we published our previous article (link to article appendedhere) on Virgin Galactic (SPCE), we clearly highlighted that we think the Street's consensus has been too optimistic about Virgin Galactic's revenue estimates as we thought the projections overstated the market opportunity for suborbital space tourism over the next 10 years to a large extent, based on our research that consulted multiple sources, and we submitted a revised projection.\nSince then, the Street has revised its near-term projections downwards as the company recently indicated that they are expecting to commence commercial service only from late Q3'CY22.\nThis article will discuss the circumstances leading to Virgin Galactic's \"delayed\" launch, the long-term opportunities, and the competitive threat facing Virgin's leadership quest in suborbital space tourism.\nLastly, we would present our valuation argument for long-term investors considering adding exposure to the stock right now.\nRevisions to Virgin Galactic's Mean Consensus Estimates\nMay's consensus revenue estimates & Aug's consensus revenue estimates. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nScale of revised estimates (Between May and Aug estimates). Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nInvestors should be able to glean clearly that near-term consensus estimates were revised downwards from May's projections that affected CY21 to CY25. However, we think what's important for investors to note is that the Street revised its estimates meaningfully upwards from CY26 to reflect the strong demand that SPCE highlighted during its recent earnings call, which we think demonstrates the company's confidence in a strong revenue runway for the long term, which we would discuss in detail in the subsequent sections.\nPrivate Commercial Full Revenue Service is Expected from Q3'CY22\nSPCE has since lost about 33% of its value since its earnings release on Aug 5, which we think is largely attributed to the near term headwinds resulting from its \"delay\" on commercial service launch as a result of proposed critical enhancements to VSS Unity and the mothership VMS Eve to increase their turnaround time between flights and maintenance significantly.\nAs a result of the enhancements that would take place after the completion of Unity 23 revenue-generating flight with the Italian Air Force, the company expects to commence its private commercial full revenue service only from late Q3'CY22, which we think may have taken investors aback as while the market expected full commercial service to begin in 2022, they did not expect it to be as late as Q3.\nHowever, we think the market has once again chosen to focus on the uncertainty resulting from the near-term revenue service delay and ignore the importance of the enhancements that are expected to improve VMS Eve's turnaround time so significantly that Virgin Galactic emphasized:\n\n These enhancements\n could potentially allow Eve to fly 100 flights between major maintenance inspections. This is up from the current interval of 10 flights between major inspections today. This will be an incredibly important success factor during the early commercial service period while we are in process of manufacturing additional motherships.\n\nIn addition, the company also highlighted that with the enhancements, the company is also \"targeting a reduced turnaround flight between Unity flights of 4 to 5 weeks, and that's down from what has at best, been 7 to 8 weeks for VSS Unity.\"\nThe Street and the market were certainly disappointed with the announcement, as analysts cut near-term forecasts and downgraded ratings, and Morgan Stanley also emphasized: \"During this heavy maintenance period, Virgin Galactic will not be able to conduct any space flights until summer of 2022.\"\nSure, no flights. We are certainly not concerned, as the company reiterated the significance of these enhancements:\n\n These are reasonably robust modifications to Eve. But the reason we are taking the additional scope and the additional time for this enhancement period of Eve is because the flight rate that we will derive from Eve following this enhancement period is we plan to build that to effect. It's almost 10x greater between major inspections and what we've been doing now. That will give us an ability to fly Eve much more frequently, and\n that's really important to our initial group of future astronauts as well as the people that we're going to be signing up starting today.\"\n\nIf investors could clearly glean the language used by the company in the above sentence, the company is clearly doing it because they are expecting such a robust demand for its space flight services that we think may have exceeded what the company had initially planned for. So while the recent launch event with Sir Richard Branson was largely seen as a major PR coup, it certainly allowed the company to measure the response from interested customers, and the company has clearly indicated that they see such robust demand that they needed to open up a priority list as soon as possible as CEO Michael Colglazier articulated:\n\n Leveraging the substantial demand we have seen to our website, I am pleased to announce that we will soon open a priority list for future space travelers who wish to be next in line. We will reach out first to this list with any available inventory following the conclusion of our spacefarer conversion process. Registration for this list will soon be made available on our website...We have an enormous amount of confidence in the total addressable market that's been kind of shown from the response to [Sir Richard Branson's] Unity 22. So we won't be absorbing all of it, but we do think we can make a major step forward here.\n\nWe are not sure what the market and other investors think. Still, the company needs to find a way to cope with the demand from what's obviously a heavily supply-constrained situation. The next best thing they would do in the near term is to make the necessary modifications to VMS Eve and VSS Unity to ensure these highly valued potential customers don't go knocking on the door of Jeff Bezos's Blue Origin (BORGN).\nAre There Really So Many Customers Who Couldn't Wait to Get On Board VSS Unity?\nYes, it's pretty incredible to think that the company is expecting so many customers who couldn't wait to get on board. Lisa Rich, the Managing Partner at the venture capital firm Hemisphere Ventures, articulated: \"...I've met so many Virgin [Galactic] ticket holders over the years. And by the way, every one of them has told me that the $250,000 they've spent waiting has paid for itself 10 times over because of the experiences that they have shared over the years.\"\nInvestors should clearly understand that the community of 600 future astronauts that have committed to Virgin Galactic's flight services formed a tight-knit group over the years as the company emphasized: \"I think one thing that probably [is] not well known outside of the existing future astronaut is one of the secret weapons of Virgin Galactic is our astronaut office. This is a group of people who have brought together these 600 people into a true community.\"\nThe company emphasized that these customers really value the journey towards realizing the flight experience as these customers consider it a \"life-transitional journey.\" They see so much value in what Virgin Galactic is doing that the company emphasized that their customers consider joining the community that the company brought together is \"[a] top, top of mind [priority] and very powerful.\"\nImportantly, the company also highlighted that they have opened up ticket sales to their 1000-strong \"Spacefarer\" community who has signed up through the company's \"One Small Step\" program, with a price starting from $450K per seat, that's way higher than the $200K to $250K per seat that the initial 600 future astronauts signed up for.\nVirgin Galactic believes that these future astronauts are going to be the \"sales ambassadors\" for the company because of the experience of the strong and tight-knit astronaut community that the company has painstakingly built up: \"...And so I think you can think about lifetime value in several ways. One of them is as people move through being a future astronaut graduate into the astronaut community, I think they're going to come back, and I think it will just be very natural in how people will share the experience.And I think them sharing the experience will not only let people say how wonderful it was, but it will also bring normalcy to the concept of human spaceflight. So this group of people as we bring them in, the lifetime value is all-around demand and continuing to increase the total addressable market as they go out there and share what they've done.\"\nStrong Demand Justifies Rapid Scaling Up To Achieve Strong Operating Leverage\nAstute investors would clearly have recognized that if the company relied on just the fleet of VSS Unity or VSS Imagine to dominate the market for suborbital space tourism, it would have been largely insufficient.\nBased on the company's guidance and the Street's estimates, working through the company's initial community of 600 future astronauts would take a few years at least without the modifications to VMS Eve.\nThe initial cadence (before modifications) for 2022 is a maximum of 10 revenue flights comprising 60 passengers in total. Moving on to 2023, the company could also only fly a maximum of 24 to 36 flights annually, which would allow them to fly a maximum of 144 to 216 astronauts. Thus, it may be at least another 2 years until 2025 before Virgin Galactic could start to work through the order book from the 1000 Spacefarer community, and we think by then, at least some of them would have gone over to Blue Origin. Therefore, the initial cadence really doesn't work, especially with the company preparing to draw up its priority list soon for the interest generated from the Unity 22 PR campaign, and they need to work through the 1,600 future astronauts fast, which in the near term would be solved by Eve's modifications since it allows SPCE to fly 10x more in between major inspections.\nHowever, the company still thinks that would still be insufficient to cater to the level of demand that they have been experiencing. As a result, they announced that they would be building their next-gen Delta class vehicles \"that are capable of turning on a 1-week interval.\" This class of ships is expected to form the majority of the company's future capacity over time.\nPart of the reason that the company needed to raise the $500M equity offering recently is that they are ready to start developing and build the Delta class vehicles that would be highly instrumental towards meeting their long term capacity and cadence, that VSS Unity and VSS Imagine would never be able to meet sufficiently.\nCrucially, the company highlighted that by ramping production and capacity through the Delta class, they would be able to achieve significant operating leverage as Virgin Galactic emphasized: \"...And that's why we're so focused on getting the Delta class with next generation of mothership. That's where we really get efficiency. That's where we get scale. That's where you'll really see the flow-through come because we'll have a fixed cost basis that is easy for us to communicate and easy for us to contribute the trade for efficiency down the road.\"\nCompeting Against Blue Origin\nWe think operating leverage will be the name of the game here, and Virgin Galactic clearly recognizes that it would be vital for the company to operate at a sufficient scale justified by its demand drivers to compete strongly against Blue Origin.\nWhile we don't think Blue Origin's main game is in suborbital space tourism, as Jeff Bezos also highlighted previously that: \"The architecture and the technology we have chosen is complete overkill for a suborbital tourism mission.”\nWe think Blue Origin's main market certainly goes beyond suborbital space tourism that Morgan Stanley highlighted that \"Mr. Bezos’ company is seeking business in a space market that will triple in size to more than $1 trillion in annual sales by 2040, assuming rapid technological developments enable routine moon landings, asteroid mining and space tourism.\"\nTherefore, while Blue Origin focuses on building up its Space colonies' vision over the long term, we think they would most certainly be able to ramp their production quickly and gain significant operating leverage. The key is how those advantages translate to its suborbital space tourism segment in the near term would be key to determine Virgin Galactic's leadership.\nOne thing is for sure. Both companies expect the price for the suborbital space tourism tickets to come down substantially over time as production scales up and technologies improve. Thus, the key for Virgin Galactic's leadership and survival in this market is to gain operating leverage as quickly as possible to build up those advantages while Blue Origin has its plate full with its various projects across the entire spectrum.\nVirgin Galactic wants to make suborbital space tourism much more accessible, and the key to achieving that is to drive prices down through operating leverage achieved by ramping up production. As a result, we think the company's Delta class plans are highly pivotal to Virgin Galactic's leadership against Blue Origin and highly encourage investors to keep their eyes closely focused on these plans.\nFree Cash Flow Forecast & Valuations\nEBITDA margin forecast & CapEx margin forecast. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEV / Fwd EBITDA trend. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nDespite the delay in launching full revenue service to Q3'22, the Street's estimates expect the company to be FCF profitable from the end of FY24. We think that's important as it demonstrates the long-term cash flow potential for the company's business in this market, where only BORGN and SPCE are the clear leaders right now.\nHowever, the valuations still look expensive at 18.5x by the end of 2030, 36% above its aerospace and defense peers comp set mean of 13.61x.\nStreet's mean price target. Source: TIKR\nThe Street is also not too optimistic, as the mean target price of $35.55 is a mere 13.5% above the last closing price, as analysts focused on SPCE's near term \"headwind\" of moving its revenue service to Q3'CY22, which we think is highly important to its long term competitive advantage.\nWhile we are really excited about the company's long-term prospects, as well as its ambition to bring suborbital space tourism to the world, we are not so sure about Virgin Galactic's expensively-looking valuation.\nSPCE Stock Price Action and Trend Analysis\nSource: TradingView\nWhile we don't think SPCE would be a suitable stock for long-term investors given its expensive valuation, we think position traders may still find an opportunity lurking around the horizon with this stock.\nSPCE is strongly supported along its 50-week moving average dynamic support level that has held strongly since 2020, including the recent false break to the downside (bear trap) it saw in May. Therefore, position traders keen to trade this stock may find an opportunity once the price action resolves itself in the next couple of weeks, we hope.\nIn summary, we assign a neutral rating to SPCE for long-term investors.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPCE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2269,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":894872798,"gmtCreate":1628819089314,"gmtModify":1631890499607,"author":{"id":"4091706622349130","authorId":"4091706622349130","name":"Stephenlimmh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36bc849c38db97b89159d04639c780dd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4091706622349130","authorIdStr":"4091706622349130"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Is railway really profitable?","listText":"Is railway really profitable?","text":"Is railway really profitable?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894872798","repostId":"1142689390","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142689390","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628814930,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1142689390?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-13 08:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Kansas City Southern sticks with CN Rail, rejects new Canadian Pacific offer<blockquote>堪萨斯城南方公司坚持与 CN Rail 合作，拒绝加拿大太平洋公司的新报价</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142689390","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Kansas City Southern says its board has determined that the latest unsolicited proposal from Canadia","content":"<p><ul>  <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KSU\">Kansas City Southern</a> says its board has determined that the latest unsolicited proposal from <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CP\">Canadian Pacific Railway</a>&nbsp;does not constitute a superior proposal, and reaffirms its support of a merger with <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNI\">Canadian National Railway</a>.</li>  <li>The company says it will wait for the U.S. Surface Transportation Board to make a ruling on the deal before a shareholder vote.</li>  <li>Earlier this week, CP&nbsp;submitted a new $300/share offer&nbsp;that values KC Southern at $31B.</li>  <li>Under the terms of the Canadian National deal, KC Southern shareholders would receive $200 in cash and 1.129 CN common shares for each KSU common share.</li>  <li>The consensus view points to alikely rejection of the KSU-CNI deal by the STB.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KSU\">堪萨斯城南部</a>表示其董事会已确定最新的主动提案来自<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CP\">加拿大太平洋铁路</a>不构成优越的提案，并重申支持与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNI\">加拿大国家铁路</a>.</li><li>该公司表示，将等待美国地面运输委员会在股东投票前对该交易做出裁决。</li><li>本周早些时候，正大提交了一份每股 300 美元的新报价，KC Southern 的估值为 310 亿美元。</li><li>根据加拿大国家交易的条款，KC Southern 股东将获得每股 KSU 普通股 200 美元现金和 1.129 加元普通股。</li><li>共识指出，STB同样拒绝了KSU-CNI的交易。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Kansas City Southern sticks with CN Rail, rejects new Canadian Pacific offer<blockquote>堪萨斯城南方公司坚持与 CN Rail 合作，拒绝加拿大太平洋公司的新报价</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nKansas City Southern sticks with CN Rail, rejects new Canadian Pacific offer<blockquote>堪萨斯城南方公司坚持与 CN Rail 合作，拒绝加拿大太平洋公司的新报价</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-13 08:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul>  <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KSU\">Kansas City Southern</a> says its board has determined that the latest unsolicited proposal from <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CP\">Canadian Pacific Railway</a>&nbsp;does not constitute a superior proposal, and reaffirms its support of a merger with <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNI\">Canadian National Railway</a>.</li>  <li>The company says it will wait for the U.S. Surface Transportation Board to make a ruling on the deal before a shareholder vote.</li>  <li>Earlier this week, CP&nbsp;submitted a new $300/share offer&nbsp;that values KC Southern at $31B.</li>  <li>Under the terms of the Canadian National deal, KC Southern shareholders would receive $200 in cash and 1.129 CN common shares for each KSU common share.</li>  <li>The consensus view points to alikely rejection of the KSU-CNI deal by the STB.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KSU\">堪萨斯城南部</a>表示其董事会已确定最新的主动提案来自<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CP\">加拿大太平洋铁路</a>不构成优越的提案，并重申支持与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNI\">加拿大国家铁路</a>.</li><li>该公司表示，将等待美国地面运输委员会在股东投票前对该交易做出裁决。</li><li>本周早些时候，正大提交了一份每股 300 美元的新报价，KC Southern 的估值为 310 亿美元。</li><li>根据加拿大国家交易的条款，KC Southern 股东将获得每股 KSU 普通股 200 美元现金和 1.129 加元普通股。</li><li>共识指出，STB同样拒绝了KSU-CNI的交易。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3730117-kansas-city-southern-sticks-with-cn-rail-rejects-new-canadian-pacific-offer\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CNI":"加拿大国家铁路","CP":"加拿大太平洋铁路"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3730117-kansas-city-southern-sticks-with-cn-rail-rejects-new-canadian-pacific-offer","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142689390","content_text":"Kansas City Southern says its board has determined that the latest unsolicited proposal from Canadian Pacific Railway does not constitute a superior proposal, and reaffirms its support of a merger with Canadian National Railway.\nThe company says it will wait for the U.S. Surface Transportation Board to make a ruling on the deal before a shareholder vote.\nEarlier this week, CP submitted a new $300/share offer that values KC Southern at $31B.\nUnder the terms of the Canadian National deal, KC Southern shareholders would receive $200 in cash and 1.129 CN common shares for each KSU common share.\nThe consensus view points to alikely rejection of the KSU-CNI deal by the STB.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CNI":0.9,"CP":0.9,"KSU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2160,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":894923251,"gmtCreate":1628783786773,"gmtModify":1631890499616,"author":{"id":"4091706622349130","authorId":"4091706622349130","name":"Stephenlimmh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36bc849c38db97b89159d04639c780dd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4091706622349130","authorIdStr":"4091706622349130"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"The hackers had a conscience, lol.","listText":"The hackers had a conscience, lol.","text":"The hackers had a conscience, lol.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894923251","repostId":"2158688512","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":623,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":895459012,"gmtCreate":1628768215736,"gmtModify":1631892910145,"author":{"id":"4091706622349130","authorId":"4091706622349130","name":"Stephenlimmh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36bc849c38db97b89159d04639c780dd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4091706622349130","authorIdStr":"4091706622349130"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Looks like the dow is not really down","listText":"Looks like the dow is not really down","text":"Looks like the dow is not really down","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/895459012","repostId":"2158254838","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":841,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":833510812,"gmtCreate":1629249331436,"gmtModify":1631890499550,"author":{"id":"4091706622349130","authorId":"4091706622349130","name":"Stephenlimmh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36bc849c38db97b89159d04639c780dd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091706622349130","idStr":"4091706622349130"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Is it really worth it to buy Tesla over byd?","listText":"Is it really worth it to buy Tesla over byd?","text":"Is it really worth it to buy Tesla over byd?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/833510812","repostId":"1189114396","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189114396","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629247487,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1189114396?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-18 08:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock Sells off While Institutions Continue to Buy.<blockquote>特斯拉股票遭到抛售，而机构继续买入。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189114396","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Tesla stock has tumbled almost 10% off recent highs but institutions are continuing to buy.\nIn a mar","content":"<p>Tesla stock has tumbled almost 10% off recent highs but institutions are continuing to buy.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价已较近期高点下跌近 10%，但机构仍在继续买入。</blockquote></p><p> In a market filled with&nbsp;liquidity, the \"buy the dip mentality\" continues to persist. This appears to be true with Tesla stock and institutions.</p><p><blockquote>在流动性充裕的市场中，“逢低买入心态”继续挥之不去。特斯拉股票和机构似乎确实如此。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Demand for Shares Increases in Q3</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三季度股票需求增加</b></blockquote></p><p> Q3 has been on pace to be the first quarter since Q4 2020 to have an overall&nbsp;net inflow&nbsp;of Tesla stock into institutions—those with at least $100 million under management. Currently, there is a net inflow of $7 billion of Tesla stock into institutions. 13F filings were due August 15th to show any quarter-over-quarter changes in Q2, however, institutions can continue to update positions throughout the third quarter.</p><p><blockquote>第三季度有望成为自2020年第四季度以来第一个特斯拉股票整体净流入机构的季度，这些机构管理着至少1亿美元。目前，有70亿美元的特斯拉股票净流入机构。13F 文件将于 8 月 15 日提交，以显示第二季度的任何环比变化，但是，机构可以在整个第三季度继续更新头寸。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/373bcfeda661a3fdddb1ad430c075270\" tg-width=\"683\" tg-height=\"604\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>via: marketbeat.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：marketbeat.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Of those \"buying the dip\" the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, increased their position&nbsp;617% quarter-over-quarter&nbsp;for a total of&nbsp;330,196 shares. While this accounts for a small position in the&nbsp;under management&nbsp;for CPPIB, others have made Tesla a larger portion of their portfolio. Australia-based Hyperion Asset Management has also increased its Tesla stock position by over 20%. As a result of the additional shares, Tesla stock is now over 15% of Hyperions portfolio demonstrating more conviction than Cathie Wood'sARKKwith a ~10% allocation to Tesla stock.</p><p><blockquote>在那些“逢低买入”的人中，加拿大养老金计划投资委员会（Canada Pension Plan Investment Board）的持仓环比增加了617%，总计330,196股。虽然这在 CPPIB 的管理层中所占比例很小，但其他公司已将特斯拉纳入其投资组合的更大一部分。总部位于澳大利亚的 Hyperion Asset Management 也将其特斯拉股票头寸增加了 20% 以上。由于增发了股票，特斯拉股票现在占Hyperions投资组合的15%以上，比Cathie Wood的Sarkk更有信心，将约10%的股票配置给了特斯拉股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Notable Bear</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一只著名的熊</b></blockquote></p><p> While not a direct seller of shares, Dr. Michael Burry—famed for hisshortposition against subprime mortgage bonds—has announced in Scion Asset Management's&nbsp;13F&nbsp;the purchase of additional Put Options against Tesla. Scion Asset management has held a bearish Put Option against Tesla since Q1 2021. The aforementioned Put Options&nbsp;— representing 35% of Scion's portfolio and a current market value of ~$731 million—&nbsp;are Scion's largest positions.</p><p><blockquote>虽然不是股票的直接卖家，但以次级抵押贷款债券空头头寸而闻名的 Michael Burry 博士在 Scion Asset Management 的 13F 中宣布购买针对特斯拉的额外看跌期权。Scion Asset management 自 2021 年第一季度以来一直持有看跌特斯拉的看跌看跌期权。上述看跌期权占 Scion 投资组合的 35%，当前市值约为 7.31 亿美元，是 Scion 最大的头寸。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock Sells off While Institutions Continue to Buy.<blockquote>特斯拉股票遭到抛售，而机构继续买入。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock Sells off While Institutions Continue to Buy.<blockquote>特斯拉股票遭到抛售，而机构继续买入。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-18 08:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla stock has tumbled almost 10% off recent highs but institutions are continuing to buy.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价已较近期高点下跌近 10%，但机构仍在继续买入。</blockquote></p><p> In a market filled with&nbsp;liquidity, the \"buy the dip mentality\" continues to persist. This appears to be true with Tesla stock and institutions.</p><p><blockquote>在流动性充裕的市场中，“逢低买入心态”继续挥之不去。特斯拉股票和机构似乎确实如此。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Demand for Shares Increases in Q3</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三季度股票需求增加</b></blockquote></p><p> Q3 has been on pace to be the first quarter since Q4 2020 to have an overall&nbsp;net inflow&nbsp;of Tesla stock into institutions—those with at least $100 million under management. Currently, there is a net inflow of $7 billion of Tesla stock into institutions. 13F filings were due August 15th to show any quarter-over-quarter changes in Q2, however, institutions can continue to update positions throughout the third quarter.</p><p><blockquote>第三季度有望成为自2020年第四季度以来第一个特斯拉股票整体净流入机构的季度，这些机构管理着至少1亿美元。目前，有70亿美元的特斯拉股票净流入机构。13F 文件将于 8 月 15 日提交，以显示第二季度的任何环比变化，但是，机构可以在整个第三季度继续更新头寸。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/373bcfeda661a3fdddb1ad430c075270\" tg-width=\"683\" tg-height=\"604\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>via: marketbeat.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：marketbeat.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Of those \"buying the dip\" the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, increased their position&nbsp;617% quarter-over-quarter&nbsp;for a total of&nbsp;330,196 shares. While this accounts for a small position in the&nbsp;under management&nbsp;for CPPIB, others have made Tesla a larger portion of their portfolio. Australia-based Hyperion Asset Management has also increased its Tesla stock position by over 20%. As a result of the additional shares, Tesla stock is now over 15% of Hyperions portfolio demonstrating more conviction than Cathie Wood'sARKKwith a ~10% allocation to Tesla stock.</p><p><blockquote>在那些“逢低买入”的人中，加拿大养老金计划投资委员会（Canada Pension Plan Investment Board）的持仓环比增加了617%，总计330,196股。虽然这在 CPPIB 的管理层中所占比例很小，但其他公司已将特斯拉纳入其投资组合的更大一部分。总部位于澳大利亚的 Hyperion Asset Management 也将其特斯拉股票头寸增加了 20% 以上。由于增发了股票，特斯拉股票现在占Hyperions投资组合的15%以上，比Cathie Wood的Sarkk更有信心，将约10%的股票配置给了特斯拉股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Notable Bear</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一只著名的熊</b></blockquote></p><p> While not a direct seller of shares, Dr. Michael Burry—famed for hisshortposition against subprime mortgage bonds—has announced in Scion Asset Management's&nbsp;13F&nbsp;the purchase of additional Put Options against Tesla. Scion Asset management has held a bearish Put Option against Tesla since Q1 2021. The aforementioned Put Options&nbsp;— representing 35% of Scion's portfolio and a current market value of ~$731 million—&nbsp;are Scion's largest positions.</p><p><blockquote>虽然不是股票的直接卖家，但以次级抵押贷款债券空头头寸而闻名的 Michael Burry 博士在 Scion Asset Management 的 13F 中宣布购买针对特斯拉的额外看跌期权。Scion Asset management 自 2021 年第一季度以来一直持有看跌特斯拉的看跌看跌期权。上述看跌期权占 Scion 投资组合的 35%，当前市值约为 7.31 亿美元，是 Scion 最大的头寸。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/tesla/news/institutions-continue-to-buy-q3\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/tesla/news/institutions-continue-to-buy-q3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189114396","content_text":"Tesla stock has tumbled almost 10% off recent highs but institutions are continuing to buy.\nIn a market filled with liquidity, the \"buy the dip mentality\" continues to persist. This appears to be true with Tesla stock and institutions.\nDemand for Shares Increases in Q3\nQ3 has been on pace to be the first quarter since Q4 2020 to have an overall net inflow of Tesla stock into institutions—those with at least $100 million under management. Currently, there is a net inflow of $7 billion of Tesla stock into institutions. 13F filings were due August 15th to show any quarter-over-quarter changes in Q2, however, institutions can continue to update positions throughout the third quarter.\nvia: marketbeat.com\nOf those \"buying the dip\" the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, increased their position 617% quarter-over-quarter for a total of 330,196 shares. While this accounts for a small position in the under management for CPPIB, others have made Tesla a larger portion of their portfolio. Australia-based Hyperion Asset Management has also increased its Tesla stock position by over 20%. As a result of the additional shares, Tesla stock is now over 15% of Hyperions portfolio demonstrating more conviction than Cathie Wood'sARKKwith a ~10% allocation to Tesla stock.\nA Notable Bear\nWhile not a direct seller of shares, Dr. Michael Burry—famed for hisshortposition against subprime mortgage bonds—has announced in Scion Asset Management's 13F the purchase of additional Put Options against Tesla. Scion Asset management has held a bearish Put Option against Tesla since Q1 2021. The aforementioned Put Options — representing 35% of Scion's portfolio and a current market value of ~$731 million— are Scion's largest positions.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2390,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":894923251,"gmtCreate":1628783786773,"gmtModify":1631890499616,"author":{"id":"4091706622349130","authorId":"4091706622349130","name":"Stephenlimmh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36bc849c38db97b89159d04639c780dd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091706622349130","idStr":"4091706622349130"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"The hackers had a conscience, lol.","listText":"The hackers had a conscience, lol.","text":"The hackers had a conscience, lol.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894923251","repostId":"2158688512","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":623,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897414875,"gmtCreate":1628956937398,"gmtModify":1631890499595,"author":{"id":"4091706622349130","authorId":"4091706622349130","name":"Stephenlimmh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36bc849c38db97b89159d04639c780dd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091706622349130","idStr":"4091706622349130"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Maybe 0 maybe 1000","listText":"Maybe 0 maybe 1000","text":"Maybe 0 maybe 1000","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/897414875","repostId":"1149823415","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149823415","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628909753,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1149823415?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-14 10:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where Will Virgin Galactic Stock Be In 10 Years?<blockquote>10年后维珍银河股票会在哪里？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149823415","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nVirgin Galactic fell more than 30% post-earnings as the market was disappointed with the \"d","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Virgin Galactic fell more than 30% post-earnings as the market was disappointed with the \"delay\" affecting the launch of its private commercial revenue service.</li>  <li>However, we think the company's \"delay\" is necessary for it to rectify its supply constraints and meet the huge demand that the company is experiencing.</li>  <li>We would also discuss in detail the company's long-term opportunities and threats, and what investors need to monitor moving forward.</li>  <li>Lastly, we present our valuation arguments for long-term investors who are considering adding exposure to Virgin Galactic.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00922c9874a28954c08c613b8dbf378b\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"493\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Nastco/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>维珍银河财报公布后下跌超过 30%，原因是市场对影响其私人商业收入服务推出的“延迟”感到失望。</li><li>然而，我们认为该公司的“延迟”对于其纠正供应限制并满足该公司正在经历的巨大需求是必要的。</li><li>我们还将详细讨论公司的长期机遇和威胁，以及投资者未来需要监控的内容。</li><li>最后，我们为考虑增加维珍银河敞口的长期投资者提出了我们的估值论点。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Nastco/iStock 来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Back in May, when we published our previous article (link to article appendedhere) on Virgin Galactic (SPCE), we clearly highlighted that we think the Street's consensus has been too optimistic about Virgin Galactic's revenue estimates as we thought the projections overstated the market opportunity for suborbital space tourism over the next 10 years to a large extent, based on our research that consulted multiple sources, and we submitted a revised projection.</p><p><blockquote>早在 5 月份，当我们发表上一篇关于维珍银河 (SPCE) 的文章（链接到此处的文章）时，我们明确强调，我们认为华尔街的共识对维珍银河的收入预测过于乐观，因为我们认为这些预测在很大程度上夸大了未来 10 年亚轨道太空旅游的市场机会，基于我们咨询了多个来源的研究，我们提交了修订后的预测。</blockquote></p><p> Since then, the Street has revised its near-term projections downwards as the company recently indicated that they are expecting to commence commercial service only from&nbsp;late Q3'CY22.</p><p><blockquote>此后，华尔街下调了近期预测，因为该公司最近表示，他们预计要到 2022 年第三季度末才开始商业服务。</blockquote></p><p> This article will discuss the circumstances leading to Virgin Galactic's \"delayed\" launch, the long-term opportunities, and the competitive threat facing Virgin's leadership quest in suborbital space tourism.</p><p><blockquote>本文将讨论导致维珍银河“推迟”发射的情况、长期机遇以及维珍在亚轨道太空旅游领域寻求领导地位所面临的竞争威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, we would present our valuation argument for long-term investors considering adding exposure to the stock right now.</p><p><blockquote>最后，我们将为现在考虑增加股票敞口的长期投资者提出我们的估值论点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revisions to Virgin Galactic's Mean Consensus Estimates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>维珍银河平均共识估计的修订</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e15e65a740bf4a03405cd6f31e82bfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>May's consensus revenue estimates &amp; Aug's consensus revenue estimates. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>5 月份的共识收入预期和 8 月份的共识收入预期。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/149d99203d29b3a3e785096ccc509c57\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Scale of revised estimates (Between May and Aug estimates). Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>修订估计数的规模（5月至8月估计数之间）。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Investors should be able to glean clearly that near-term consensus estimates were revised downwards from May's projections that affected CY21 to CY25. However, we think what's important for investors to note is that the Street revised its estimates meaningfully upwards from CY26 to reflect the strong demand that SPCE highlighted during its recent earnings call, which we think demonstrates the company's confidence in a strong revenue runway for the long term, which we would discuss in detail in the subsequent sections.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该能够清楚地了解到，近期共识预测较 5 月份影响 21 财年至 25 财年的预测有所下调。然而，我们认为投资者需要注意的重要一点是，华尔街从 CY26 大幅上调了其预期，以反映 SPCE 在最近的财报看涨期权上强调的强劲需求，我们认为这表明了该公司对长期强劲收入的信心，我们将在后续章节中详细讨论这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Private Commercial Full Revenue Service is Expected from Q3'CY22</b></p><p><blockquote><b>预计从 2022 年第三季度开始提供私人商业全额收入服务</b></blockquote></p><p> SPCE has since lost about 33% of its value since its earnings release on Aug 5, which we think is largely attributed to the near term headwinds resulting from its \"delay\" on commercial service launch as a result of proposed critical enhancements to VSS Unity and the mothership VMS Eve to increase their turnaround time between flights and maintenance significantly.</p><p><blockquote>自 8 月 5 日发布财报以来，SPCE 的价值已下跌约 33%，我们认为这在很大程度上是由于 VSS Unity 和母舰 VMS Eve 提出的关键增强措施导致其商业服务推出“延迟”，从而导致近期不利因素显着增加了飞行和维护之间的周转时间。</blockquote></p><p> As a result of the enhancements that would take place after the completion of Unity 23 revenue-generating flight with the Italian Air Force, the company expects to commence its private commercial full revenue service only from late Q3'CY22, which we think may have taken investors aback as while the market expected full commercial service to begin in 2022, they did not expect it to be as late as Q3.</p><p><blockquote>由于与意大利空军完成 Unity 23 创收飞行后将进行增强，该公司预计仅从 2022 年第三季度末开始其私人商业全额收入服务，我们认为这可能会让投资者感到惊讶，因为虽然市场预计全面商业服务将于 2022 年开始，但他们没想到会迟到第三季度。</blockquote></p><p> However, we think the market has once again chosen to focus on the uncertainty resulting from the near-term revenue service delay and ignore the importance of the enhancements that are expected to improve VMS Eve's turnaround time so significantly that Virgin Galactic emphasized:</p><p><blockquote>然而，我们认为市场再次选择关注近期收入服务延迟带来的不确定性，而忽视了预计将显着缩短 VMS Eve 周转时间的增强功能的重要性，以至于维珍银河强调：</blockquote></p><p>   These enhancements  <i>could potentially allow Eve to fly 100 flights between major maintenance inspections</i>. This is up from the current interval of 10 flights between major inspections today. This will be an incredibly important success factor during the early commercial service period while we are in process of manufacturing additional motherships.  In addition, the company also highlighted that with the enhancements, the company is also \"targeting a reduced turnaround flight between Unity flights of 4 to 5 weeks, and that's down from what has at best, been 7 to 8 weeks for VSS Unity.\"</p><p><blockquote>这些增强<i>可能允许夏娃在重大维护检查之间飞行 100 次航班</i>这比今天主要检查之间10次飞行的间隔有所增加。在我们制造更多母舰的过程中，这将是早期商业服务时期极其重要的成功因素。此外，该公司还强调，通过这些增强功能，该公司还“目标是将 Unity 航班之间的周转航班缩短至 4 至 5 周，这低于 VSS Unity 最多 7 至 8 周的时间。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The Street and the market were certainly disappointed with the announcement, as analysts cut near-term forecasts and downgraded ratings, and Morgan Stanley also emphasized: \"During this heavy maintenance period, Virgin Galactic will not be able to conduct any space flights until summer of 2022.\"</p><p><blockquote>华尔街和市场当然对这一声明感到失望，因为分析师下调了近期预测并下调了评级，摩根士丹利也强调：“在这个繁重的维护期间，维珍银河将无法进行任何太空飞行，直到2022年夏天。”</blockquote></p><p> Sure, no flights. We are certainly not concerned, as the company reiterated the significance of these enhancements:</p><p><blockquote>当然，没有航班。我们当然不担心，因为该公司重申了这些增强功能的重要性：</blockquote></p><p>   These are reasonably robust modifications to Eve. But the reason we are taking the additional scope and the additional time for this enhancement period of Eve is because the flight rate that we will derive from Eve following this enhancement period is we plan to build that to effect. It's almost 10x greater between major inspections and what we've been doing now. That will give us an ability to fly Eve much more frequently, and  <i>that's really important to our initial group of future astronauts as well as the people that we're going to be signing up starting today</i>.\"  If investors could clearly glean the language used by the company in the above sentence, the company is clearly doing it because they are expecting such a robust demand for its space flight services that we think may have exceeded what the company had initially planned for. So while the recent launch event with Sir Richard Branson was largely seen as a major PR coup, it certainly allowed the company to measure the response from interested customers, and the company has clearly indicated that they see such robust demand that they needed to open up a priority list as soon as possible as CEO Michael Colglazier articulated:</p><p><blockquote>这些都是对Eve的相当稳健的修改。但是我们为Eve的这个增强期采取额外的范围和额外的时间的原因是因为我们将在这个增强期之后从Eve得出的飞行率是我们计划建立的。大检查和我们现在所做的差不多是10倍。这将使我们有能力更频繁地驾驶夏娃<i>这对我们未来的第一批宇航员以及我们从今天开始报名的人来说非常重要</i>.”如果投资者能够清楚地理解该公司在上述句子中使用的语言，那么该公司显然正在这样做，因为他们预计对其太空飞行服务的需求如此强劲，我们认为这可能已经超过了该公司最初的计划。因此，虽然最近与理查德·布兰森爵士举行的发布会在很大程度上被视为一次重大的公关政变，但它无疑让公司能够衡量感兴趣的客户的反应，而且该公司已经明确表示，他们看到了如此强劲的需求，以至于他们需要尽快打开优先列表正如首席执行官 Michael Colglazier 所说：</blockquote></p><p>   Leveraging the substantial demand we have seen to our website, I am pleased to announce that we will soon open a priority list for future space travelers who wish to be next in line. We will reach out first to this list with any available inventory following the conclusion of our spacefarer conversion process. Registration for this list will soon be made available on our website...We have an enormous amount of confidence in the total addressable market that's been kind of shown from the response to [Sir Richard Branson's] Unity 22. So we won't be absorbing all of it, but we do think we can make a major step forward here.  We are not sure what the market and other investors think. Still, the company needs to find a way to cope with the demand from what's obviously a heavily supply-constrained situation. The next best thing they would do in the near term is to make the necessary modifications to VMS Eve and VSS Unity to ensure these highly valued potential customers don't go knocking on the door of Jeff Bezos's Blue Origin (BORGN).</p><p><blockquote>利用我们对我们网站的巨大需求，我很高兴地宣布，我们将很快为希望成为下一个太空旅行者开放一个优先名单。在我们的宇航员转换过程结束后，我们将首先联系这份清单，提供任何可用的库存。该名单的注册将很快在我们的网站上提供……我们对整个潜在市场充满信心，这一点从对[理查德·布兰森爵士]Unity 22的反应中可以看出。因此，我们不会吸收所有这些，但我们确实认为我们可以在这里向前迈出一大步。我们不确定市场和其他投资者的想法。尽管如此，该公司仍需要找到一种方法来应对明显严重供应紧张的需求。他们在短期内要做的下一个最好的事情是对VMS Eve和VSS Unity进行必要的修改，以确保这些高价值的潜在客户不会去敲杰夫·贝佐斯的蓝色起源（BORGN）的门。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Are There Really So Many Customers Who Couldn't Wait to Get On Board VSS Unity?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>真的有那么多客户迫不及待地想加入VSS Unity吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Yes, it's pretty incredible to think that the company is expecting so many customers who couldn't wait to get on board. Lisa Rich, the Managing Partner at the venture capital firm Hemisphere Ventures, articulated: \"...I've met so many Virgin [Galactic] ticket&nbsp;holders over the years. And by the way, every one of them has told me that the $250,000 they've spent waiting has paid for itself 10 times over because of the experiences that they have shared over the years.\"</p><p><blockquote>是的，想到该公司期待着这么多迫不及待地想加入的客户，真是令人难以置信。风险投资公司 Hemisphere Ventures 的执行合伙人丽莎·里奇 (Lisa Rich) 表示：“……这些年来，我见过很多维珍 [银河] 机票持有者。顺便说一句，他们每个人都告诉我，他们花了 25 万美元等待已经收回了 10 倍，因为他们多年来分享的经验。”</blockquote></p><p> Investors should clearly understand that the community of 600 future astronauts that have committed to Virgin Galactic's flight services formed a tight-knit group over the years as the company emphasized: \"I think one thing that probably [is] not well known outside of the existing future astronaut is one of the secret weapons of Virgin Galactic is our astronaut office. This is a group of people who have brought together these 600 people into a true community.\"</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该清楚地了解，致力于维珍银河飞行服务的 600 名未来宇航员社区多年来形成了一个紧密团结的团体，正如该公司所强调的那样：“我认为，除了现有的未来宇航员之外，有一件事可能不太为人所知，那就是维珍银河的秘密武器之一就是我们的宇航员办公室。这是一群人将这 600 人聚集在一起，形成了一个真正的社区。”</blockquote></p><p> The company emphasized that these customers really value the journey towards realizing the flight experience as these customers consider it a \"life-transitional journey.\" They see so much value in what Virgin Galactic is doing that the company emphasized that their customers consider joining the community that the company brought together is \"[a] top, top of mind [priority] and very powerful.\"</p><p><blockquote>该公司强调，这些客户非常重视实现飞行体验的旅程，因为这些客户认为这是一次“人生转型之旅”。他们认为维珍银河所做的事情非常有价值，以至于该公司强调，他们的客户认为加入该公司汇集的社区是“首要任务，而且非常强大”。</blockquote></p><p> Importantly, the company also highlighted that they have opened up ticket sales to their 1000-strong \"Spacefarer\" community who has signed up through the company's \"One Small Step\" program, with a price starting from $450K per seat, that's way higher than the $200K to $250K per seat that the initial 600 future astronauts signed up for.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，该公司还强调，他们已经向通过该公司的“一小步”计划注册的1000名“宇航员”社区开放了门票销售，价格从每个座位45万美元起，远高于最初600名未来宇航员注册的每个座位20万至25万美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Virgin Galactic believes that these future astronauts are going to be the \"sales ambassadors\" for the company because of the experience of the strong and tight-knit astronaut community that the company has painstakingly built up: \"...And so I think you can think about lifetime value in several ways. One of them is as people move through being a future astronaut graduate into the astronaut community, I think they're going to come back, and I think it will just be very natural in how people will share the experience<b><i>.</i></b>And I think them sharing the experience will not only let people say how wonderful it was, but it will also bring normalcy to the concept of human spaceflight. So this group of people as we bring them in, the lifetime value is all-around demand and continuing to increase the total addressable market as they go out there and share what they've done.\"</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河认为，这些未来的宇航员将成为公司的“销售大使”，因为他们拥有公司精心打造的强大而紧密团结的宇航员社区的经验：“……所以我认为你可以从几个方面来思考终身价值。其中之一是，当人们从未来的宇航员毕业生进入宇航员社区时，我认为他们会回来，我认为人们分享这种经历是非常自然的。<b><i>.</i></b>我认为他们分享这段经历不仅会让人们说那是多么美妙，还会给人类太空飞行的概念带来常态。因此，当我们把这群人带进来时，他们的终身价值是全面的需求，并随着他们走出去分享他们所做的事情，继续增加整个潜在市场。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Strong Demand Justifies Rapid Scaling Up To Achieve Strong Operating Leverage</b></p><p><blockquote><b>强劲的需求证明快速扩大规模以实现强大的运营杠杆是合理的</b></blockquote></p><p> Astute investors would clearly have recognized that if the company relied on just the fleet of VSS Unity or VSS Imagine to dominate the market for suborbital space tourism, it would have been largely insufficient.</p><p><blockquote>精明的投资者会清楚地认识到，如果该公司仅仅依靠 VSS Unity 或 VSS Imagine 的机队来主导亚轨道太空旅游市场，那么这在很大程度上是不够的。</blockquote></p><p> Based on the company's guidance and the Street's estimates, working through the company's initial community of 600 future astronauts would take a few years at least without the modifications to VMS Eve.</p><p><blockquote>根据该公司的指导和华尔街的估计，在不对 VMS Eve 进行修改的情况下，该公司最初由 600 名未来宇航员组成的社区至少需要几年时间。</blockquote></p><p> The initial cadence (before modifications) for 2022 is a maximum of 10 revenue flights comprising 60 passengers in total. Moving on to 2023, the company could also only fly a maximum of 24 to 36 flights annually, which would allow them to fly a maximum of 144 to 216 astronauts. Thus, it may be at least another 2 years until 2025 before Virgin Galactic could start to work through the order book from the 1000 Spacefarer community, and we think by then, at least some of them would have gone over to Blue Origin. Therefore, the initial cadence really doesn't work, especially with the company preparing to draw up its priority list soon for the interest generated from the Unity 22 PR campaign, and they need to work through the 1,600 future astronauts fast, which in the near term would be solved by Eve's modifications since it allows SPCE to fly 10x more in between major inspections.</p><p><blockquote>2022年的初始节奏（修改前）是最多10个收入航班，总共包括60名乘客。展望 2023 年，该公司每年最多只能飞行 24 至 36 次航班，这将允许他们最多搭载 144 至 216 名宇航员。因此，到2025年，维珍银河可能至少还需要两年时间才能开始处理1000名宇航员社区的订单，我们认为到那时，至少他们中的一些人会去蓝色起源。因此，最初的节奏确实不起作用，特别是该公司准备很快为 Unity 22 公关活动产生的兴趣制定优先列表，他们需要快速处理 1,600 名未来宇航员，这将在不久的将来通过 Eve 的修改来解决，因为它允许 SPCE 在重大检查之间的飞行次数增加 10 倍。</blockquote></p><p> However, the company still thinks that would still be insufficient to cater to the level of demand that they have been experiencing. As a result, they announced that they would be building their next-gen Delta class vehicles \"that are capable of turning on a 1-week interval.\" This class of ships is expected to form the majority of the company's future capacity over time.</p><p><blockquote>然而，该公司仍然认为这仍然不足以满足他们所经历的需求水平。因此，他们宣布将制造下一代 Delta 级车辆，“能够每隔 1 周启动一次”。随着时间的推移，此类船舶预计将构成该公司未来运力的大部分。</blockquote></p><p> Part of the reason that the company needed to raise the&nbsp;$500M equity&nbsp;offering recently is that they are ready to start developing and build the Delta class vehicles that would be highly instrumental towards meeting their long term capacity and cadence, that VSS Unity and VSS Imagine would never be able to meet sufficiently.</p><p><blockquote>该公司最近需要筹集 5 亿美元股权发行的部分原因是，他们已准备好开始开发和制造 Delta 级车辆，这将极大地有助于满足其长期容量和节奏，VSS Unity 和 VSS Imagine 永远无法满足。</blockquote></p><p> Crucially, the company highlighted that by ramping production and capacity through the Delta class, they would be able to achieve significant operating leverage as Virgin Galactic emphasized: \"...And that's why we're so focused on getting the Delta class with next generation of mothership. That's where we really get efficiency. That's where we get scale. That's where you'll really see the flow-through come because we'll have a fixed cost basis that is easy for us to communicate and easy for us to contribute the trade for efficiency down the road.\"</p><p><blockquote>至关重要的是，该公司强调，通过 Delta 级提升产量和运力，他们将能够实现显著的运营杠杆，正如维珍银河所强调的那样：“.....这就是为什么我们如此专注于获得下一代母舰的 Delta 级。这才是我们真正获得效率的地方。这才是我们获得规模的地方。这才是你真正看到流量的地方，因为我们将有一个固定的成本基础，这对我们来说很容易沟通，也很容易为未来的效率做出贡献。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Competing Against Blue Origin</b></p><p><blockquote><b>与蓝色起源竞争</b></blockquote></p><p> We think operating leverage will be the name of the game here, and Virgin Galactic clearly recognizes that it would be vital for the company to operate at a sufficient scale justified by its demand drivers to compete strongly against Blue Origin.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为运营杠杆将是这里的游戏名称，维珍银河清楚地认识到，对于该公司来说，以其需求驱动因素所证明的足够规模运营对于与蓝色起源进行强有力的竞争至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> While we don't think Blue Origin's main game is in suborbital space tourism, as Jeff Bezos also highlighted previously that: \"The architecture&nbsp;and the technology we have chosen is complete overkill for a suborbital tourism mission.”</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们不认为蓝色起源的主要游戏是亚轨道太空旅游，但正如杰夫·贝索斯之前强调的那样：“我们选择的架构和技术对于亚轨道旅游任务来说完全是矫枉过正。”</blockquote></p><p> We think Blue Origin's main market certainly goes beyond suborbital space tourism that Morgan Stanley highlighted that \"Mr. Bezos’ company is seeking business in a space market that will triple in size to more than $1 trillion in annual sales by 2040, assuming rapid technological developments enable routine moon landings, asteroid mining and space tourism.\"</p><p><blockquote>我们认为，蓝色起源的主要市场肯定超出了摩根士丹利强调的亚轨道太空旅游，“贝佐斯先生的公司正在太空市场寻求业务，到 2040 年，该市场的规模将扩大两倍，年销售额将超过 1 万亿美元，前提是技术的快速发展能够实现常规登月、小行星采矿和太空旅游”。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, while Blue Origin focuses on building up its Space colonies' vision over the long term, we think they would most certainly be able to ramp their production quickly and gain significant operating leverage. The key is how those advantages translate to its suborbital space tourism segment in the near term would be key to determine Virgin Galactic's leadership.</p><p><blockquote>因此，虽然蓝色起源专注于建立其太空殖民地的长期愿景，但我们认为他们肯定能够快速提高产量并获得显着的运营杠杆。关键是这些优势如何在短期内转化为其亚轨道太空旅游领域，这将是决定维珍银河领先地位的关键。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One thing is for sure. Both companies expect the price for the suborbital space tourism tickets to come down substantially over time as production scales up and technologies improve. Thus, the key for Virgin Galactic's leadership and survival in this market is to gain operating leverage as quickly as possible to build up those advantages while Blue Origin has its plate full with its various projects across the entire spectrum.</p><p><blockquote>有一点是肯定的。两家公司预计，随着生产规模的扩大和技术的进步，亚轨道太空旅游门票的价格将随着时间的推移大幅下降。因此，维珍银河在这个市场上的领导地位和生存的关键是尽快获得运营杠杆以建立这些优势，而蓝色起源则忙于整个领域的各种项目。</blockquote></p><p> Virgin Galactic wants to make suborbital space tourism much more accessible, and the key to achieving that is to drive prices down through operating leverage achieved by ramping up production. As a result, we think the company's Delta class plans are highly pivotal to Virgin Galactic's leadership against Blue Origin and highly encourage investors to keep their eyes closely focused on these plans.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河希望让亚轨道太空旅游更容易获得，而实现这一目标的关键是通过提高产量实现的运营杠杆来降低价格。因此，我们认为该公司的 Delta class 计划对于维珍银河对抗蓝色起源的领导地位至关重要，并强烈鼓励投资者密切关注这些计划。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Free Cash Flow Forecast &amp; Valuations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>自由现金流预测和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48be5e8da375fdc72591e31b96a223f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>EBITDA margin forecast &amp; CapEx margin forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EBITDA 利润率预测和资本支出利润率预测。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57509b52b1c0ac46a44e7a0dd619bd97\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>EV / Fwd EBITDA trend. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV / Fwd EBITDA 趋势。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Despite the delay in launching full revenue service to Q3'22, the Street's estimates expect the company to be FCF profitable from the end of FY24. We think that's important as it demonstrates the long-term cash flow potential for the company's business in this market, where only BORGN and SPCE are the clear leaders right now.</p><p><blockquote>尽管推迟到 2022 年第三季度推出全面收入服务，但华尔街预计该公司将从 2024 财年末开始实现自由现金流盈利。我们认为这很重要，因为它展示了该公司业务在这个市场的长期现金流潜力，目前只有 BORGN 和 SPCE 是该市场的明显领导者。</blockquote></p><p> However, the valuations still look expensive at 18.5x by the end of 2030, 36% above its aerospace and defense peers comp set mean of 13.61x.</p><p><blockquote>然而，到 2030 年底，估值看起来仍然很昂贵，为 18.5 倍，比航空航天和国防同行的平均薪酬 13.61 倍高出 36%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1084f3186f9732fad8d28b824c65de2a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"472\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Street's mean price target. Source: TIKR</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Street 的平均价格目标。资料来源：TIKR</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The Street is also not too optimistic, as the mean target price of $35.55 is a mere 13.5% above the last closing price, as analysts focused on SPCE's near term \"headwind\" of moving its revenue service to Q3'CY22, which we think is highly important to its long term competitive advantage.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街也不太乐观，因为平均目标价 35.55 美元仅比最后收盘价高出 13.5%，因为分析师关注的是 SPCE 将其收入服务转移到 2022 年第三季度的近期“逆风”，我们认为这对其长期竞争优势非常重要。</blockquote></p><p> While we are really excited about the company's long-term prospects, as well as its ambition to bring suborbital space tourism to the world, we are not so sure about Virgin Galactic's expensively-looking valuation.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们对该公司的长期前景以及将亚轨道太空旅游带给世界的雄心感到非常兴奋，但我们对维珍银河看起来昂贵的估值不太确定。</blockquote></p><p> <b>SPCE Stock Price Action and Trend Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>SPCE 股票价格走势和趋势分析</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f872b3e8670eac6d5ca4d8afce15200\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While we don't think SPCE would be a suitable stock for long-term investors given its expensive valuation, we think position traders may still find an opportunity lurking around the horizon with this stock.</p><p><blockquote>虽然鉴于其昂贵的估值，我们认为 SPCE 不是一只适合长期投资者的股票，但我们认为头寸交易者仍然可能会发现这只股票潜伏的机会。</blockquote></p><p> SPCE is strongly supported along its 50-week moving average dynamic support level that has held strongly since 2020, including the recent false break to the downside (bear trap) it saw in May. Therefore, position traders keen to trade this stock may find an opportunity once the price action resolves itself in the next couple of weeks, we hope.</p><p><blockquote>SPCE 受到 50 周移动平均线动态支撑位的强力支撑，该支撑位自 2020 年以来一直保持强劲，包括最近 5 月份出现的下行（熊市陷阱）的假突破。因此，我们希望，一旦价格走势在未来几周内自行解决，热衷于交易该股票的头寸交易者可能会找到机会。</blockquote></p><p> In summary, we assign a neutral rating to SPCE for long-term investors.</p><p><blockquote>总之，对于长期投资者，我们给予 SPCE 中性评级。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Will Virgin Galactic Stock Be In 10 Years?<blockquote>10年后维珍银河股票会在哪里？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Will Virgin Galactic Stock Be In 10 Years?<blockquote>10年后维珍银河股票会在哪里？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-14 10:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Virgin Galactic fell more than 30% post-earnings as the market was disappointed with the \"delay\" affecting the launch of its private commercial revenue service.</li>  <li>However, we think the company's \"delay\" is necessary for it to rectify its supply constraints and meet the huge demand that the company is experiencing.</li>  <li>We would also discuss in detail the company's long-term opportunities and threats, and what investors need to monitor moving forward.</li>  <li>Lastly, we present our valuation arguments for long-term investors who are considering adding exposure to Virgin Galactic.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00922c9874a28954c08c613b8dbf378b\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"493\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Nastco/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>维珍银河财报公布后下跌超过 30%，原因是市场对影响其私人商业收入服务推出的“延迟”感到失望。</li><li>然而，我们认为该公司的“延迟”对于其纠正供应限制并满足该公司正在经历的巨大需求是必要的。</li><li>我们还将详细讨论公司的长期机遇和威胁，以及投资者未来需要监控的内容。</li><li>最后，我们为考虑增加维珍银河敞口的长期投资者提出了我们的估值论点。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Nastco/iStock 来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Back in May, when we published our previous article (link to article appendedhere) on Virgin Galactic (SPCE), we clearly highlighted that we think the Street's consensus has been too optimistic about Virgin Galactic's revenue estimates as we thought the projections overstated the market opportunity for suborbital space tourism over the next 10 years to a large extent, based on our research that consulted multiple sources, and we submitted a revised projection.</p><p><blockquote>早在 5 月份，当我们发表上一篇关于维珍银河 (SPCE) 的文章（链接到此处的文章）时，我们明确强调，我们认为华尔街的共识对维珍银河的收入预测过于乐观，因为我们认为这些预测在很大程度上夸大了未来 10 年亚轨道太空旅游的市场机会，基于我们咨询了多个来源的研究，我们提交了修订后的预测。</blockquote></p><p> Since then, the Street has revised its near-term projections downwards as the company recently indicated that they are expecting to commence commercial service only from&nbsp;late Q3'CY22.</p><p><blockquote>此后，华尔街下调了近期预测，因为该公司最近表示，他们预计要到 2022 年第三季度末才开始商业服务。</blockquote></p><p> This article will discuss the circumstances leading to Virgin Galactic's \"delayed\" launch, the long-term opportunities, and the competitive threat facing Virgin's leadership quest in suborbital space tourism.</p><p><blockquote>本文将讨论导致维珍银河“推迟”发射的情况、长期机遇以及维珍在亚轨道太空旅游领域寻求领导地位所面临的竞争威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, we would present our valuation argument for long-term investors considering adding exposure to the stock right now.</p><p><blockquote>最后，我们将为现在考虑增加股票敞口的长期投资者提出我们的估值论点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revisions to Virgin Galactic's Mean Consensus Estimates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>维珍银河平均共识估计的修订</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e15e65a740bf4a03405cd6f31e82bfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>May's consensus revenue estimates &amp; Aug's consensus revenue estimates. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>5 月份的共识收入预期和 8 月份的共识收入预期。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/149d99203d29b3a3e785096ccc509c57\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Scale of revised estimates (Between May and Aug estimates). Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>修订估计数的规模（5月至8月估计数之间）。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Investors should be able to glean clearly that near-term consensus estimates were revised downwards from May's projections that affected CY21 to CY25. However, we think what's important for investors to note is that the Street revised its estimates meaningfully upwards from CY26 to reflect the strong demand that SPCE highlighted during its recent earnings call, which we think demonstrates the company's confidence in a strong revenue runway for the long term, which we would discuss in detail in the subsequent sections.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该能够清楚地了解到，近期共识预测较 5 月份影响 21 财年至 25 财年的预测有所下调。然而，我们认为投资者需要注意的重要一点是，华尔街从 CY26 大幅上调了其预期，以反映 SPCE 在最近的财报看涨期权上强调的强劲需求，我们认为这表明了该公司对长期强劲收入的信心，我们将在后续章节中详细讨论这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Private Commercial Full Revenue Service is Expected from Q3'CY22</b></p><p><blockquote><b>预计从 2022 年第三季度开始提供私人商业全额收入服务</b></blockquote></p><p> SPCE has since lost about 33% of its value since its earnings release on Aug 5, which we think is largely attributed to the near term headwinds resulting from its \"delay\" on commercial service launch as a result of proposed critical enhancements to VSS Unity and the mothership VMS Eve to increase their turnaround time between flights and maintenance significantly.</p><p><blockquote>自 8 月 5 日发布财报以来，SPCE 的价值已下跌约 33%，我们认为这在很大程度上是由于 VSS Unity 和母舰 VMS Eve 提出的关键增强措施导致其商业服务推出“延迟”，从而导致近期不利因素显着增加了飞行和维护之间的周转时间。</blockquote></p><p> As a result of the enhancements that would take place after the completion of Unity 23 revenue-generating flight with the Italian Air Force, the company expects to commence its private commercial full revenue service only from late Q3'CY22, which we think may have taken investors aback as while the market expected full commercial service to begin in 2022, they did not expect it to be as late as Q3.</p><p><blockquote>由于与意大利空军完成 Unity 23 创收飞行后将进行增强，该公司预计仅从 2022 年第三季度末开始其私人商业全额收入服务，我们认为这可能会让投资者感到惊讶，因为虽然市场预计全面商业服务将于 2022 年开始，但他们没想到会迟到第三季度。</blockquote></p><p> However, we think the market has once again chosen to focus on the uncertainty resulting from the near-term revenue service delay and ignore the importance of the enhancements that are expected to improve VMS Eve's turnaround time so significantly that Virgin Galactic emphasized:</p><p><blockquote>然而，我们认为市场再次选择关注近期收入服务延迟带来的不确定性，而忽视了预计将显着缩短 VMS Eve 周转时间的增强功能的重要性，以至于维珍银河强调：</blockquote></p><p>   These enhancements  <i>could potentially allow Eve to fly 100 flights between major maintenance inspections</i>. This is up from the current interval of 10 flights between major inspections today. This will be an incredibly important success factor during the early commercial service period while we are in process of manufacturing additional motherships.  In addition, the company also highlighted that with the enhancements, the company is also \"targeting a reduced turnaround flight between Unity flights of 4 to 5 weeks, and that's down from what has at best, been 7 to 8 weeks for VSS Unity.\"</p><p><blockquote>这些增强<i>可能允许夏娃在重大维护检查之间飞行 100 次航班</i>这比今天主要检查之间10次飞行的间隔有所增加。在我们制造更多母舰的过程中，这将是早期商业服务时期极其重要的成功因素。此外，该公司还强调，通过这些增强功能，该公司还“目标是将 Unity 航班之间的周转航班缩短至 4 至 5 周，这低于 VSS Unity 最多 7 至 8 周的时间。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The Street and the market were certainly disappointed with the announcement, as analysts cut near-term forecasts and downgraded ratings, and Morgan Stanley also emphasized: \"During this heavy maintenance period, Virgin Galactic will not be able to conduct any space flights until summer of 2022.\"</p><p><blockquote>华尔街和市场当然对这一声明感到失望，因为分析师下调了近期预测并下调了评级，摩根士丹利也强调：“在这个繁重的维护期间，维珍银河将无法进行任何太空飞行，直到2022年夏天。”</blockquote></p><p> Sure, no flights. We are certainly not concerned, as the company reiterated the significance of these enhancements:</p><p><blockquote>当然，没有航班。我们当然不担心，因为该公司重申了这些增强功能的重要性：</blockquote></p><p>   These are reasonably robust modifications to Eve. But the reason we are taking the additional scope and the additional time for this enhancement period of Eve is because the flight rate that we will derive from Eve following this enhancement period is we plan to build that to effect. It's almost 10x greater between major inspections and what we've been doing now. That will give us an ability to fly Eve much more frequently, and  <i>that's really important to our initial group of future astronauts as well as the people that we're going to be signing up starting today</i>.\"  If investors could clearly glean the language used by the company in the above sentence, the company is clearly doing it because they are expecting such a robust demand for its space flight services that we think may have exceeded what the company had initially planned for. So while the recent launch event with Sir Richard Branson was largely seen as a major PR coup, it certainly allowed the company to measure the response from interested customers, and the company has clearly indicated that they see such robust demand that they needed to open up a priority list as soon as possible as CEO Michael Colglazier articulated:</p><p><blockquote>这些都是对Eve的相当稳健的修改。但是我们为Eve的这个增强期采取额外的范围和额外的时间的原因是因为我们将在这个增强期之后从Eve得出的飞行率是我们计划建立的。大检查和我们现在所做的差不多是10倍。这将使我们有能力更频繁地驾驶夏娃<i>这对我们未来的第一批宇航员以及我们从今天开始报名的人来说非常重要</i>.”如果投资者能够清楚地理解该公司在上述句子中使用的语言，那么该公司显然正在这样做，因为他们预计对其太空飞行服务的需求如此强劲，我们认为这可能已经超过了该公司最初的计划。因此，虽然最近与理查德·布兰森爵士举行的发布会在很大程度上被视为一次重大的公关政变，但它无疑让公司能够衡量感兴趣的客户的反应，而且该公司已经明确表示，他们看到了如此强劲的需求，以至于他们需要尽快打开优先列表正如首席执行官 Michael Colglazier 所说：</blockquote></p><p>   Leveraging the substantial demand we have seen to our website, I am pleased to announce that we will soon open a priority list for future space travelers who wish to be next in line. We will reach out first to this list with any available inventory following the conclusion of our spacefarer conversion process. Registration for this list will soon be made available on our website...We have an enormous amount of confidence in the total addressable market that's been kind of shown from the response to [Sir Richard Branson's] Unity 22. So we won't be absorbing all of it, but we do think we can make a major step forward here.  We are not sure what the market and other investors think. Still, the company needs to find a way to cope with the demand from what's obviously a heavily supply-constrained situation. The next best thing they would do in the near term is to make the necessary modifications to VMS Eve and VSS Unity to ensure these highly valued potential customers don't go knocking on the door of Jeff Bezos's Blue Origin (BORGN).</p><p><blockquote>利用我们对我们网站的巨大需求，我很高兴地宣布，我们将很快为希望成为下一个太空旅行者开放一个优先名单。在我们的宇航员转换过程结束后，我们将首先联系这份清单，提供任何可用的库存。该名单的注册将很快在我们的网站上提供……我们对整个潜在市场充满信心，这一点从对[理查德·布兰森爵士]Unity 22的反应中可以看出。因此，我们不会吸收所有这些，但我们确实认为我们可以在这里向前迈出一大步。我们不确定市场和其他投资者的想法。尽管如此，该公司仍需要找到一种方法来应对明显严重供应紧张的需求。他们在短期内要做的下一个最好的事情是对VMS Eve和VSS Unity进行必要的修改，以确保这些高价值的潜在客户不会去敲杰夫·贝佐斯的蓝色起源（BORGN）的门。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Are There Really So Many Customers Who Couldn't Wait to Get On Board VSS Unity?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>真的有那么多客户迫不及待地想加入VSS Unity吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Yes, it's pretty incredible to think that the company is expecting so many customers who couldn't wait to get on board. Lisa Rich, the Managing Partner at the venture capital firm Hemisphere Ventures, articulated: \"...I've met so many Virgin [Galactic] ticket&nbsp;holders over the years. And by the way, every one of them has told me that the $250,000 they've spent waiting has paid for itself 10 times over because of the experiences that they have shared over the years.\"</p><p><blockquote>是的，想到该公司期待着这么多迫不及待地想加入的客户，真是令人难以置信。风险投资公司 Hemisphere Ventures 的执行合伙人丽莎·里奇 (Lisa Rich) 表示：“……这些年来，我见过很多维珍 [银河] 机票持有者。顺便说一句，他们每个人都告诉我，他们花了 25 万美元等待已经收回了 10 倍，因为他们多年来分享的经验。”</blockquote></p><p> Investors should clearly understand that the community of 600 future astronauts that have committed to Virgin Galactic's flight services formed a tight-knit group over the years as the company emphasized: \"I think one thing that probably [is] not well known outside of the existing future astronaut is one of the secret weapons of Virgin Galactic is our astronaut office. This is a group of people who have brought together these 600 people into a true community.\"</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该清楚地了解，致力于维珍银河飞行服务的 600 名未来宇航员社区多年来形成了一个紧密团结的团体，正如该公司所强调的那样：“我认为，除了现有的未来宇航员之外，有一件事可能不太为人所知，那就是维珍银河的秘密武器之一就是我们的宇航员办公室。这是一群人将这 600 人聚集在一起，形成了一个真正的社区。”</blockquote></p><p> The company emphasized that these customers really value the journey towards realizing the flight experience as these customers consider it a \"life-transitional journey.\" They see so much value in what Virgin Galactic is doing that the company emphasized that their customers consider joining the community that the company brought together is \"[a] top, top of mind [priority] and very powerful.\"</p><p><blockquote>该公司强调，这些客户非常重视实现飞行体验的旅程，因为这些客户认为这是一次“人生转型之旅”。他们认为维珍银河所做的事情非常有价值，以至于该公司强调，他们的客户认为加入该公司汇集的社区是“首要任务，而且非常强大”。</blockquote></p><p> Importantly, the company also highlighted that they have opened up ticket sales to their 1000-strong \"Spacefarer\" community who has signed up through the company's \"One Small Step\" program, with a price starting from $450K per seat, that's way higher than the $200K to $250K per seat that the initial 600 future astronauts signed up for.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，该公司还强调，他们已经向通过该公司的“一小步”计划注册的1000名“宇航员”社区开放了门票销售，价格从每个座位45万美元起，远高于最初600名未来宇航员注册的每个座位20万至25万美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Virgin Galactic believes that these future astronauts are going to be the \"sales ambassadors\" for the company because of the experience of the strong and tight-knit astronaut community that the company has painstakingly built up: \"...And so I think you can think about lifetime value in several ways. One of them is as people move through being a future astronaut graduate into the astronaut community, I think they're going to come back, and I think it will just be very natural in how people will share the experience<b><i>.</i></b>And I think them sharing the experience will not only let people say how wonderful it was, but it will also bring normalcy to the concept of human spaceflight. So this group of people as we bring them in, the lifetime value is all-around demand and continuing to increase the total addressable market as they go out there and share what they've done.\"</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河认为，这些未来的宇航员将成为公司的“销售大使”，因为他们拥有公司精心打造的强大而紧密团结的宇航员社区的经验：“……所以我认为你可以从几个方面来思考终身价值。其中之一是，当人们从未来的宇航员毕业生进入宇航员社区时，我认为他们会回来，我认为人们分享这种经历是非常自然的。<b><i>.</i></b>我认为他们分享这段经历不仅会让人们说那是多么美妙，还会给人类太空飞行的概念带来常态。因此，当我们把这群人带进来时，他们的终身价值是全面的需求，并随着他们走出去分享他们所做的事情，继续增加整个潜在市场。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Strong Demand Justifies Rapid Scaling Up To Achieve Strong Operating Leverage</b></p><p><blockquote><b>强劲的需求证明快速扩大规模以实现强大的运营杠杆是合理的</b></blockquote></p><p> Astute investors would clearly have recognized that if the company relied on just the fleet of VSS Unity or VSS Imagine to dominate the market for suborbital space tourism, it would have been largely insufficient.</p><p><blockquote>精明的投资者会清楚地认识到，如果该公司仅仅依靠 VSS Unity 或 VSS Imagine 的机队来主导亚轨道太空旅游市场，那么这在很大程度上是不够的。</blockquote></p><p> Based on the company's guidance and the Street's estimates, working through the company's initial community of 600 future astronauts would take a few years at least without the modifications to VMS Eve.</p><p><blockquote>根据该公司的指导和华尔街的估计，在不对 VMS Eve 进行修改的情况下，该公司最初由 600 名未来宇航员组成的社区至少需要几年时间。</blockquote></p><p> The initial cadence (before modifications) for 2022 is a maximum of 10 revenue flights comprising 60 passengers in total. Moving on to 2023, the company could also only fly a maximum of 24 to 36 flights annually, which would allow them to fly a maximum of 144 to 216 astronauts. Thus, it may be at least another 2 years until 2025 before Virgin Galactic could start to work through the order book from the 1000 Spacefarer community, and we think by then, at least some of them would have gone over to Blue Origin. Therefore, the initial cadence really doesn't work, especially with the company preparing to draw up its priority list soon for the interest generated from the Unity 22 PR campaign, and they need to work through the 1,600 future astronauts fast, which in the near term would be solved by Eve's modifications since it allows SPCE to fly 10x more in between major inspections.</p><p><blockquote>2022年的初始节奏（修改前）是最多10个收入航班，总共包括60名乘客。展望 2023 年，该公司每年最多只能飞行 24 至 36 次航班，这将允许他们最多搭载 144 至 216 名宇航员。因此，到2025年，维珍银河可能至少还需要两年时间才能开始处理1000名宇航员社区的订单，我们认为到那时，至少他们中的一些人会去蓝色起源。因此，最初的节奏确实不起作用，特别是该公司准备很快为 Unity 22 公关活动产生的兴趣制定优先列表，他们需要快速处理 1,600 名未来宇航员，这将在不久的将来通过 Eve 的修改来解决，因为它允许 SPCE 在重大检查之间的飞行次数增加 10 倍。</blockquote></p><p> However, the company still thinks that would still be insufficient to cater to the level of demand that they have been experiencing. As a result, they announced that they would be building their next-gen Delta class vehicles \"that are capable of turning on a 1-week interval.\" This class of ships is expected to form the majority of the company's future capacity over time.</p><p><blockquote>然而，该公司仍然认为这仍然不足以满足他们所经历的需求水平。因此，他们宣布将制造下一代 Delta 级车辆，“能够每隔 1 周启动一次”。随着时间的推移，此类船舶预计将构成该公司未来运力的大部分。</blockquote></p><p> Part of the reason that the company needed to raise the&nbsp;$500M equity&nbsp;offering recently is that they are ready to start developing and build the Delta class vehicles that would be highly instrumental towards meeting their long term capacity and cadence, that VSS Unity and VSS Imagine would never be able to meet sufficiently.</p><p><blockquote>该公司最近需要筹集 5 亿美元股权发行的部分原因是，他们已准备好开始开发和制造 Delta 级车辆，这将极大地有助于满足其长期容量和节奏，VSS Unity 和 VSS Imagine 永远无法满足。</blockquote></p><p> Crucially, the company highlighted that by ramping production and capacity through the Delta class, they would be able to achieve significant operating leverage as Virgin Galactic emphasized: \"...And that's why we're so focused on getting the Delta class with next generation of mothership. That's where we really get efficiency. That's where we get scale. That's where you'll really see the flow-through come because we'll have a fixed cost basis that is easy for us to communicate and easy for us to contribute the trade for efficiency down the road.\"</p><p><blockquote>至关重要的是，该公司强调，通过 Delta 级提升产量和运力，他们将能够实现显著的运营杠杆，正如维珍银河所强调的那样：“.....这就是为什么我们如此专注于获得下一代母舰的 Delta 级。这才是我们真正获得效率的地方。这才是我们获得规模的地方。这才是你真正看到流量的地方，因为我们将有一个固定的成本基础，这对我们来说很容易沟通，也很容易为未来的效率做出贡献。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Competing Against Blue Origin</b></p><p><blockquote><b>与蓝色起源竞争</b></blockquote></p><p> We think operating leverage will be the name of the game here, and Virgin Galactic clearly recognizes that it would be vital for the company to operate at a sufficient scale justified by its demand drivers to compete strongly against Blue Origin.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为运营杠杆将是这里的游戏名称，维珍银河清楚地认识到，对于该公司来说，以其需求驱动因素所证明的足够规模运营对于与蓝色起源进行强有力的竞争至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> While we don't think Blue Origin's main game is in suborbital space tourism, as Jeff Bezos also highlighted previously that: \"The architecture&nbsp;and the technology we have chosen is complete overkill for a suborbital tourism mission.”</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们不认为蓝色起源的主要游戏是亚轨道太空旅游，但正如杰夫·贝索斯之前强调的那样：“我们选择的架构和技术对于亚轨道旅游任务来说完全是矫枉过正。”</blockquote></p><p> We think Blue Origin's main market certainly goes beyond suborbital space tourism that Morgan Stanley highlighted that \"Mr. Bezos’ company is seeking business in a space market that will triple in size to more than $1 trillion in annual sales by 2040, assuming rapid technological developments enable routine moon landings, asteroid mining and space tourism.\"</p><p><blockquote>我们认为，蓝色起源的主要市场肯定超出了摩根士丹利强调的亚轨道太空旅游，“贝佐斯先生的公司正在太空市场寻求业务，到 2040 年，该市场的规模将扩大两倍，年销售额将超过 1 万亿美元，前提是技术的快速发展能够实现常规登月、小行星采矿和太空旅游”。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, while Blue Origin focuses on building up its Space colonies' vision over the long term, we think they would most certainly be able to ramp their production quickly and gain significant operating leverage. The key is how those advantages translate to its suborbital space tourism segment in the near term would be key to determine Virgin Galactic's leadership.</p><p><blockquote>因此，虽然蓝色起源专注于建立其太空殖民地的长期愿景，但我们认为他们肯定能够快速提高产量并获得显着的运营杠杆。关键是这些优势如何在短期内转化为其亚轨道太空旅游领域，这将是决定维珍银河领先地位的关键。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One thing is for sure. Both companies expect the price for the suborbital space tourism tickets to come down substantially over time as production scales up and technologies improve. Thus, the key for Virgin Galactic's leadership and survival in this market is to gain operating leverage as quickly as possible to build up those advantages while Blue Origin has its plate full with its various projects across the entire spectrum.</p><p><blockquote>有一点是肯定的。两家公司预计，随着生产规模的扩大和技术的进步，亚轨道太空旅游门票的价格将随着时间的推移大幅下降。因此，维珍银河在这个市场上的领导地位和生存的关键是尽快获得运营杠杆以建立这些优势，而蓝色起源则忙于整个领域的各种项目。</blockquote></p><p> Virgin Galactic wants to make suborbital space tourism much more accessible, and the key to achieving that is to drive prices down through operating leverage achieved by ramping up production. As a result, we think the company's Delta class plans are highly pivotal to Virgin Galactic's leadership against Blue Origin and highly encourage investors to keep their eyes closely focused on these plans.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河希望让亚轨道太空旅游更容易获得，而实现这一目标的关键是通过提高产量实现的运营杠杆来降低价格。因此，我们认为该公司的 Delta class 计划对于维珍银河对抗蓝色起源的领导地位至关重要，并强烈鼓励投资者密切关注这些计划。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Free Cash Flow Forecast &amp; Valuations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>自由现金流预测和估值</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48be5e8da375fdc72591e31b96a223f4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>EBITDA margin forecast &amp; CapEx margin forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EBITDA 利润率预测和资本支出利润率预测。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57509b52b1c0ac46a44e7a0dd619bd97\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>EV / Fwd EBITDA trend. Data Source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV / Fwd EBITDA 趋势。数据来源：S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Despite the delay in launching full revenue service to Q3'22, the Street's estimates expect the company to be FCF profitable from the end of FY24. We think that's important as it demonstrates the long-term cash flow potential for the company's business in this market, where only BORGN and SPCE are the clear leaders right now.</p><p><blockquote>尽管推迟到 2022 年第三季度推出全面收入服务，但华尔街预计该公司将从 2024 财年末开始实现自由现金流盈利。我们认为这很重要，因为它展示了该公司业务在这个市场的长期现金流潜力，目前只有 BORGN 和 SPCE 是该市场的明显领导者。</blockquote></p><p> However, the valuations still look expensive at 18.5x by the end of 2030, 36% above its aerospace and defense peers comp set mean of 13.61x.</p><p><blockquote>然而，到 2030 年底，估值看起来仍然很昂贵，为 18.5 倍，比航空航天和国防同行的平均薪酬 13.61 倍高出 36%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1084f3186f9732fad8d28b824c65de2a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"472\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Street's mean price target. Source: TIKR</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Street 的平均价格目标。资料来源：TIKR</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The Street is also not too optimistic, as the mean target price of $35.55 is a mere 13.5% above the last closing price, as analysts focused on SPCE's near term \"headwind\" of moving its revenue service to Q3'CY22, which we think is highly important to its long term competitive advantage.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街也不太乐观，因为平均目标价 35.55 美元仅比最后收盘价高出 13.5%，因为分析师关注的是 SPCE 将其收入服务转移到 2022 年第三季度的近期“逆风”，我们认为这对其长期竞争优势非常重要。</blockquote></p><p> While we are really excited about the company's long-term prospects, as well as its ambition to bring suborbital space tourism to the world, we are not so sure about Virgin Galactic's expensively-looking valuation.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们对该公司的长期前景以及将亚轨道太空旅游带给世界的雄心感到非常兴奋，但我们对维珍银河看起来昂贵的估值不太确定。</blockquote></p><p> <b>SPCE Stock Price Action and Trend Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>SPCE 股票价格走势和趋势分析</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f872b3e8670eac6d5ca4d8afce15200\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While we don't think SPCE would be a suitable stock for long-term investors given its expensive valuation, we think position traders may still find an opportunity lurking around the horizon with this stock.</p><p><blockquote>虽然鉴于其昂贵的估值，我们认为 SPCE 不是一只适合长期投资者的股票，但我们认为头寸交易者仍然可能会发现这只股票潜伏的机会。</blockquote></p><p> SPCE is strongly supported along its 50-week moving average dynamic support level that has held strongly since 2020, including the recent false break to the downside (bear trap) it saw in May. Therefore, position traders keen to trade this stock may find an opportunity once the price action resolves itself in the next couple of weeks, we hope.</p><p><blockquote>SPCE 受到 50 周移动平均线动态支撑位的强力支撑，该支撑位自 2020 年以来一直保持强劲，包括最近 5 月份出现的下行（熊市陷阱）的假突破。因此，我们希望，一旦价格走势在未来几周内自行解决，热衷于交易该股票的头寸交易者可能会找到机会。</blockquote></p><p> In summary, we assign a neutral rating to SPCE for long-term investors.</p><p><blockquote>总之，对于长期投资者，我们给予 SPCE 中性评级。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449270-virgin-galactic-stock-10-years\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPCE":"维珍银河"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449270-virgin-galactic-stock-10-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149823415","content_text":"Summary\n\nVirgin Galactic fell more than 30% post-earnings as the market was disappointed with the \"delay\" affecting the launch of its private commercial revenue service.\nHowever, we think the company's \"delay\" is necessary for it to rectify its supply constraints and meet the huge demand that the company is experiencing.\nWe would also discuss in detail the company's long-term opportunities and threats, and what investors need to monitor moving forward.\nLastly, we present our valuation arguments for long-term investors who are considering adding exposure to Virgin Galactic.\n\nNastco/iStock via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nBack in May, when we published our previous article (link to article appendedhere) on Virgin Galactic (SPCE), we clearly highlighted that we think the Street's consensus has been too optimistic about Virgin Galactic's revenue estimates as we thought the projections overstated the market opportunity for suborbital space tourism over the next 10 years to a large extent, based on our research that consulted multiple sources, and we submitted a revised projection.\nSince then, the Street has revised its near-term projections downwards as the company recently indicated that they are expecting to commence commercial service only from late Q3'CY22.\nThis article will discuss the circumstances leading to Virgin Galactic's \"delayed\" launch, the long-term opportunities, and the competitive threat facing Virgin's leadership quest in suborbital space tourism.\nLastly, we would present our valuation argument for long-term investors considering adding exposure to the stock right now.\nRevisions to Virgin Galactic's Mean Consensus Estimates\nMay's consensus revenue estimates & Aug's consensus revenue estimates. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nScale of revised estimates (Between May and Aug estimates). Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nInvestors should be able to glean clearly that near-term consensus estimates were revised downwards from May's projections that affected CY21 to CY25. However, we think what's important for investors to note is that the Street revised its estimates meaningfully upwards from CY26 to reflect the strong demand that SPCE highlighted during its recent earnings call, which we think demonstrates the company's confidence in a strong revenue runway for the long term, which we would discuss in detail in the subsequent sections.\nPrivate Commercial Full Revenue Service is Expected from Q3'CY22\nSPCE has since lost about 33% of its value since its earnings release on Aug 5, which we think is largely attributed to the near term headwinds resulting from its \"delay\" on commercial service launch as a result of proposed critical enhancements to VSS Unity and the mothership VMS Eve to increase their turnaround time between flights and maintenance significantly.\nAs a result of the enhancements that would take place after the completion of Unity 23 revenue-generating flight with the Italian Air Force, the company expects to commence its private commercial full revenue service only from late Q3'CY22, which we think may have taken investors aback as while the market expected full commercial service to begin in 2022, they did not expect it to be as late as Q3.\nHowever, we think the market has once again chosen to focus on the uncertainty resulting from the near-term revenue service delay and ignore the importance of the enhancements that are expected to improve VMS Eve's turnaround time so significantly that Virgin Galactic emphasized:\n\n These enhancements\n could potentially allow Eve to fly 100 flights between major maintenance inspections. This is up from the current interval of 10 flights between major inspections today. This will be an incredibly important success factor during the early commercial service period while we are in process of manufacturing additional motherships.\n\nIn addition, the company also highlighted that with the enhancements, the company is also \"targeting a reduced turnaround flight between Unity flights of 4 to 5 weeks, and that's down from what has at best, been 7 to 8 weeks for VSS Unity.\"\nThe Street and the market were certainly disappointed with the announcement, as analysts cut near-term forecasts and downgraded ratings, and Morgan Stanley also emphasized: \"During this heavy maintenance period, Virgin Galactic will not be able to conduct any space flights until summer of 2022.\"\nSure, no flights. We are certainly not concerned, as the company reiterated the significance of these enhancements:\n\n These are reasonably robust modifications to Eve. But the reason we are taking the additional scope and the additional time for this enhancement period of Eve is because the flight rate that we will derive from Eve following this enhancement period is we plan to build that to effect. It's almost 10x greater between major inspections and what we've been doing now. That will give us an ability to fly Eve much more frequently, and\n that's really important to our initial group of future astronauts as well as the people that we're going to be signing up starting today.\"\n\nIf investors could clearly glean the language used by the company in the above sentence, the company is clearly doing it because they are expecting such a robust demand for its space flight services that we think may have exceeded what the company had initially planned for. So while the recent launch event with Sir Richard Branson was largely seen as a major PR coup, it certainly allowed the company to measure the response from interested customers, and the company has clearly indicated that they see such robust demand that they needed to open up a priority list as soon as possible as CEO Michael Colglazier articulated:\n\n Leveraging the substantial demand we have seen to our website, I am pleased to announce that we will soon open a priority list for future space travelers who wish to be next in line. We will reach out first to this list with any available inventory following the conclusion of our spacefarer conversion process. Registration for this list will soon be made available on our website...We have an enormous amount of confidence in the total addressable market that's been kind of shown from the response to [Sir Richard Branson's] Unity 22. So we won't be absorbing all of it, but we do think we can make a major step forward here.\n\nWe are not sure what the market and other investors think. Still, the company needs to find a way to cope with the demand from what's obviously a heavily supply-constrained situation. The next best thing they would do in the near term is to make the necessary modifications to VMS Eve and VSS Unity to ensure these highly valued potential customers don't go knocking on the door of Jeff Bezos's Blue Origin (BORGN).\nAre There Really So Many Customers Who Couldn't Wait to Get On Board VSS Unity?\nYes, it's pretty incredible to think that the company is expecting so many customers who couldn't wait to get on board. Lisa Rich, the Managing Partner at the venture capital firm Hemisphere Ventures, articulated: \"...I've met so many Virgin [Galactic] ticket holders over the years. And by the way, every one of them has told me that the $250,000 they've spent waiting has paid for itself 10 times over because of the experiences that they have shared over the years.\"\nInvestors should clearly understand that the community of 600 future astronauts that have committed to Virgin Galactic's flight services formed a tight-knit group over the years as the company emphasized: \"I think one thing that probably [is] not well known outside of the existing future astronaut is one of the secret weapons of Virgin Galactic is our astronaut office. This is a group of people who have brought together these 600 people into a true community.\"\nThe company emphasized that these customers really value the journey towards realizing the flight experience as these customers consider it a \"life-transitional journey.\" They see so much value in what Virgin Galactic is doing that the company emphasized that their customers consider joining the community that the company brought together is \"[a] top, top of mind [priority] and very powerful.\"\nImportantly, the company also highlighted that they have opened up ticket sales to their 1000-strong \"Spacefarer\" community who has signed up through the company's \"One Small Step\" program, with a price starting from $450K per seat, that's way higher than the $200K to $250K per seat that the initial 600 future astronauts signed up for.\nVirgin Galactic believes that these future astronauts are going to be the \"sales ambassadors\" for the company because of the experience of the strong and tight-knit astronaut community that the company has painstakingly built up: \"...And so I think you can think about lifetime value in several ways. One of them is as people move through being a future astronaut graduate into the astronaut community, I think they're going to come back, and I think it will just be very natural in how people will share the experience.And I think them sharing the experience will not only let people say how wonderful it was, but it will also bring normalcy to the concept of human spaceflight. So this group of people as we bring them in, the lifetime value is all-around demand and continuing to increase the total addressable market as they go out there and share what they've done.\"\nStrong Demand Justifies Rapid Scaling Up To Achieve Strong Operating Leverage\nAstute investors would clearly have recognized that if the company relied on just the fleet of VSS Unity or VSS Imagine to dominate the market for suborbital space tourism, it would have been largely insufficient.\nBased on the company's guidance and the Street's estimates, working through the company's initial community of 600 future astronauts would take a few years at least without the modifications to VMS Eve.\nThe initial cadence (before modifications) for 2022 is a maximum of 10 revenue flights comprising 60 passengers in total. Moving on to 2023, the company could also only fly a maximum of 24 to 36 flights annually, which would allow them to fly a maximum of 144 to 216 astronauts. Thus, it may be at least another 2 years until 2025 before Virgin Galactic could start to work through the order book from the 1000 Spacefarer community, and we think by then, at least some of them would have gone over to Blue Origin. Therefore, the initial cadence really doesn't work, especially with the company preparing to draw up its priority list soon for the interest generated from the Unity 22 PR campaign, and they need to work through the 1,600 future astronauts fast, which in the near term would be solved by Eve's modifications since it allows SPCE to fly 10x more in between major inspections.\nHowever, the company still thinks that would still be insufficient to cater to the level of demand that they have been experiencing. As a result, they announced that they would be building their next-gen Delta class vehicles \"that are capable of turning on a 1-week interval.\" This class of ships is expected to form the majority of the company's future capacity over time.\nPart of the reason that the company needed to raise the $500M equity offering recently is that they are ready to start developing and build the Delta class vehicles that would be highly instrumental towards meeting their long term capacity and cadence, that VSS Unity and VSS Imagine would never be able to meet sufficiently.\nCrucially, the company highlighted that by ramping production and capacity through the Delta class, they would be able to achieve significant operating leverage as Virgin Galactic emphasized: \"...And that's why we're so focused on getting the Delta class with next generation of mothership. That's where we really get efficiency. That's where we get scale. That's where you'll really see the flow-through come because we'll have a fixed cost basis that is easy for us to communicate and easy for us to contribute the trade for efficiency down the road.\"\nCompeting Against Blue Origin\nWe think operating leverage will be the name of the game here, and Virgin Galactic clearly recognizes that it would be vital for the company to operate at a sufficient scale justified by its demand drivers to compete strongly against Blue Origin.\nWhile we don't think Blue Origin's main game is in suborbital space tourism, as Jeff Bezos also highlighted previously that: \"The architecture and the technology we have chosen is complete overkill for a suborbital tourism mission.”\nWe think Blue Origin's main market certainly goes beyond suborbital space tourism that Morgan Stanley highlighted that \"Mr. Bezos’ company is seeking business in a space market that will triple in size to more than $1 trillion in annual sales by 2040, assuming rapid technological developments enable routine moon landings, asteroid mining and space tourism.\"\nTherefore, while Blue Origin focuses on building up its Space colonies' vision over the long term, we think they would most certainly be able to ramp their production quickly and gain significant operating leverage. The key is how those advantages translate to its suborbital space tourism segment in the near term would be key to determine Virgin Galactic's leadership.\nOne thing is for sure. Both companies expect the price for the suborbital space tourism tickets to come down substantially over time as production scales up and technologies improve. Thus, the key for Virgin Galactic's leadership and survival in this market is to gain operating leverage as quickly as possible to build up those advantages while Blue Origin has its plate full with its various projects across the entire spectrum.\nVirgin Galactic wants to make suborbital space tourism much more accessible, and the key to achieving that is to drive prices down through operating leverage achieved by ramping up production. As a result, we think the company's Delta class plans are highly pivotal to Virgin Galactic's leadership against Blue Origin and highly encourage investors to keep their eyes closely focused on these plans.\nFree Cash Flow Forecast & Valuations\nEBITDA margin forecast & CapEx margin forecast. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEV / Fwd EBITDA trend. Data Source: S&P Capital IQ\nDespite the delay in launching full revenue service to Q3'22, the Street's estimates expect the company to be FCF profitable from the end of FY24. We think that's important as it demonstrates the long-term cash flow potential for the company's business in this market, where only BORGN and SPCE are the clear leaders right now.\nHowever, the valuations still look expensive at 18.5x by the end of 2030, 36% above its aerospace and defense peers comp set mean of 13.61x.\nStreet's mean price target. Source: TIKR\nThe Street is also not too optimistic, as the mean target price of $35.55 is a mere 13.5% above the last closing price, as analysts focused on SPCE's near term \"headwind\" of moving its revenue service to Q3'CY22, which we think is highly important to its long term competitive advantage.\nWhile we are really excited about the company's long-term prospects, as well as its ambition to bring suborbital space tourism to the world, we are not so sure about Virgin Galactic's expensively-looking valuation.\nSPCE Stock Price Action and Trend Analysis\nSource: TradingView\nWhile we don't think SPCE would be a suitable stock for long-term investors given its expensive valuation, we think position traders may still find an opportunity lurking around the horizon with this stock.\nSPCE is strongly supported along its 50-week moving average dynamic support level that has held strongly since 2020, including the recent false break to the downside (bear trap) it saw in May. Therefore, position traders keen to trade this stock may find an opportunity once the price action resolves itself in the next couple of weeks, we hope.\nIn summary, we assign a neutral rating to SPCE for long-term investors.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPCE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2269,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839216353,"gmtCreate":1629160800472,"gmtModify":1631890499571,"author":{"id":"4091706622349130","authorId":"4091706622349130","name":"Stephenlimmh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36bc849c38db97b89159d04639c780dd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091706622349130","idStr":"4091706622349130"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839216353","repostId":"2160278866","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2151,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":884907962,"gmtCreate":1631843974456,"gmtModify":1631890499508,"author":{"id":"4091706622349130","authorId":"4091706622349130","name":"Stephenlimmh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36bc849c38db97b89159d04639c780dd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091706622349130","idStr":"4091706622349130"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/884907962","repostId":"1105376345","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105376345","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631833833,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1105376345?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-17 07:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P ends modestly lower as rising Treasury yields offset robust retail data<blockquote>由于国债收益率上升抵消了强劲的零售数据，标准普尔收盘小幅走低</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105376345","media":"Reuters","summary":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 ended slightly down on Thursday, paring losses in late trading afte","content":"<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 ended slightly down on Thursday, paring losses in late trading after unexpectedly strong retail sales data underscored the strength of the U.S. economic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>路透纽约5月28日 - 标普500周四小幅收低，在意外强劲的零售销售数据凸显美国经济复苏的强劲势头后，尾盘收窄跌幅。</blockquote></p><p> The three major indexes spent much of the day in negative territory as rising U.S. Treasury yields pressured market-leading tech stocks, and the rising dollar weighed on exporters.</p><p><blockquote>由于美国国债收益率上升给市场领先的科技股带来压力，以及美元升值给出口商带来压力，三大股指当天大部分时间都处于负值区域。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon.com Inc, buoyed by solid online sales in the Commerce Department’s report, helped push the Nasdaq into positive territory.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊公司在商务部报告中稳健的在线销售提振下，帮助纳斯达克进入正值。</blockquote></p><p> “Looking at today, clearly we had positive news from retail sales and it looks as if the massive slowdown in the economy is not materializing as a lot of people expected,” said Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist at LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina.</p><p><blockquote>“北卡罗来纳州夏洛特市 LPL Financial 高级市场策略师 Ryan Detrick 说：”从今天的情况来看，我们显然收到了零售销售方面的积极消息，而且经济的大幅放缓似乎并没有像许多人预期的那样实现。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s a nice reminder that the economy is still taking two steps forward for each step back even amid the COVID concerns,” Detrick added.</p><p><blockquote>“德特里克补充说：”这很好地提醒我们，即使在 COVID 担忧的情况下，经济仍在每后退一步前进两步。</blockquote></p><p> Economically sensitive transports and microchips were among the outperformers.</p><p><blockquote>对经济敏感的运输和微芯片表现优异。</blockquote></p><p> Data released before the opening bell showed an unexpected bump in retail sales as shoppers weathered Hurricane Ida and the COVID Delta variant, evidence of resilience in the consumer, who contributes about 70% to U.S. economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>开盘前公布的数据显示，随着购物者经受住了飓风艾达和新冠病毒德尔塔变异毒株的考验，零售额意外增长，这证明了消费者的韧性，消费者对美国经济增长的贡献约为70%。</blockquote></p><p> “Once again, it shows the U.S. consumer continues to spend and continues to help this economy grow,” Detrick said.</p><p><blockquote>“德特里克说：”这再次表明美国消费者继续消费，并继续帮助经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 63.07 points, or 0.18%, to 34,751.32; the S&amp;P 500 lost 6.95 points, or 0.16%, at 4,473.75; and the Nasdaq Composite added 20.40 points, or 0.13%, at 15,181.92.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌63.07点，跌幅0.18%，至34,751.32点；标普500下跌 6.95 点，跌幅 0.16%，报 4,473.75 点；纳斯达克综合指数上涨 20.40 点，即 0.13%，至 15,181.92 点。</blockquote></p><p> Eight of the 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P 500 ended lower, with materials suffering the largest percentage drop.</p><p><blockquote>标普500 11个主要板块中有8个板块收盘走低，其中材料板块跌幅最大。</blockquote></p><p> The consumer discretionary spending sector posted the biggest gain, with Amazon.com doing the heavy lifting.</p><p><blockquote>非必需消费品支出行业涨幅最大，其中亚马逊承担了重任。</blockquote></p><p> Apparel company Gap Inc gained 1.6%. Online marketplace Etsy Inc and luxury accessory company Tapestry Inc rose 3.1% and 1.9%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>服装公司 Gap Inc 上涨 1.6%。在线市场 Etsy Inc 和奢侈配饰公司 Tapestry Inc 分别上涨 3.1% 和 1.9%。</blockquote></p><p> Ford Motor Co rose 1.4% after it announced plans to boost production of its F-150 electric pickup model.</p><p><blockquote>福特汽车公司宣布计划提高 F-150 电动皮卡车型的产量，股价上涨 1.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.27-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.06-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌发行量与上涨发行量的比例为 1.27 比 1；在纳斯达克，1.06比1的比率有利于进步人士。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted nine new 52-week highs and one new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 82 new highs and 94 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下9个52周新高和一个新低；纳斯达克综合指数创下82个新高和94个新低。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 9.37 billion shares, compared with the 9.44 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的成交量为 93.7 亿股，而过去 20 个交易日的平均成交量为 94.4 亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P ends modestly lower as rising Treasury yields offset robust retail data<blockquote>由于国债收益率上升抵消了强劲的零售数据，标准普尔收盘小幅走低</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P ends modestly lower as rising Treasury yields offset robust retail data<blockquote>由于国债收益率上升抵消了强劲的零售数据，标准普尔收盘小幅走低</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-17 07:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 ended slightly down on Thursday, paring losses in late trading after unexpectedly strong retail sales data underscored the strength of the U.S. economic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>路透纽约5月28日 - 标普500周四小幅收低，在意外强劲的零售销售数据凸显美国经济复苏的强劲势头后，尾盘收窄跌幅。</blockquote></p><p> The three major indexes spent much of the day in negative territory as rising U.S. Treasury yields pressured market-leading tech stocks, and the rising dollar weighed on exporters.</p><p><blockquote>由于美国国债收益率上升给市场领先的科技股带来压力，以及美元升值给出口商带来压力，三大股指当天大部分时间都处于负值区域。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon.com Inc, buoyed by solid online sales in the Commerce Department’s report, helped push the Nasdaq into positive territory.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊公司在商务部报告中稳健的在线销售提振下，帮助纳斯达克进入正值。</blockquote></p><p> “Looking at today, clearly we had positive news from retail sales and it looks as if the massive slowdown in the economy is not materializing as a lot of people expected,” said Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist at LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina.</p><p><blockquote>“北卡罗来纳州夏洛特市 LPL Financial 高级市场策略师 Ryan Detrick 说：”从今天的情况来看，我们显然收到了零售销售方面的积极消息，而且经济的大幅放缓似乎并没有像许多人预期的那样实现。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s a nice reminder that the economy is still taking two steps forward for each step back even amid the COVID concerns,” Detrick added.</p><p><blockquote>“德特里克补充说：”这很好地提醒我们，即使在 COVID 担忧的情况下，经济仍在每后退一步前进两步。</blockquote></p><p> Economically sensitive transports and microchips were among the outperformers.</p><p><blockquote>对经济敏感的运输和微芯片表现优异。</blockquote></p><p> Data released before the opening bell showed an unexpected bump in retail sales as shoppers weathered Hurricane Ida and the COVID Delta variant, evidence of resilience in the consumer, who contributes about 70% to U.S. economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>开盘前公布的数据显示，随着购物者经受住了飓风艾达和新冠病毒德尔塔变异毒株的考验，零售额意外增长，这证明了消费者的韧性，消费者对美国经济增长的贡献约为70%。</blockquote></p><p> “Once again, it shows the U.S. consumer continues to spend and continues to help this economy grow,” Detrick said.</p><p><blockquote>“德特里克说：”这再次表明美国消费者继续消费，并继续帮助经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 63.07 points, or 0.18%, to 34,751.32; the S&amp;P 500 lost 6.95 points, or 0.16%, at 4,473.75; and the Nasdaq Composite added 20.40 points, or 0.13%, at 15,181.92.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌63.07点，跌幅0.18%，至34,751.32点；标普500下跌 6.95 点，跌幅 0.16%，报 4,473.75 点；纳斯达克综合指数上涨 20.40 点，即 0.13%，至 15,181.92 点。</blockquote></p><p> Eight of the 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P 500 ended lower, with materials suffering the largest percentage drop.</p><p><blockquote>标普500 11个主要板块中有8个板块收盘走低，其中材料板块跌幅最大。</blockquote></p><p> The consumer discretionary spending sector posted the biggest gain, with Amazon.com doing the heavy lifting.</p><p><blockquote>非必需消费品支出行业涨幅最大，其中亚马逊承担了重任。</blockquote></p><p> Apparel company Gap Inc gained 1.6%. Online marketplace Etsy Inc and luxury accessory company Tapestry Inc rose 3.1% and 1.9%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>服装公司 Gap Inc 上涨 1.6%。在线市场 Etsy Inc 和奢侈配饰公司 Tapestry Inc 分别上涨 3.1% 和 1.9%。</blockquote></p><p> Ford Motor Co rose 1.4% after it announced plans to boost production of its F-150 electric pickup model.</p><p><blockquote>福特汽车公司宣布计划提高 F-150 电动皮卡车型的产量，股价上涨 1.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.27-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.06-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌发行量与上涨发行量的比例为 1.27 比 1；在纳斯达克，1.06比1的比率有利于进步人士。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted nine new 52-week highs and one new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 82 new highs and 94 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下9个52周新高和一个新低；纳斯达克综合指数创下82个新高和94个新低。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 9.37 billion shares, compared with the 9.44 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的成交量为 93.7 亿股，而过去 20 个交易日的平均成交量为 94.4 亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/us-stocks-sp-ends-modestly-lower-as-rising-treasury-yields-offset-robust-retail-data-idUSL1N2QI2MB\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/us-stocks-sp-ends-modestly-lower-as-rising-treasury-yields-offset-robust-retail-data-idUSL1N2QI2MB","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105376345","content_text":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 ended slightly down on Thursday, paring losses in late trading after unexpectedly strong retail sales data underscored the strength of the U.S. economic recovery.\nThe three major indexes spent much of the day in negative territory as rising U.S. Treasury yields pressured market-leading tech stocks, and the rising dollar weighed on exporters.\nAmazon.com Inc, buoyed by solid online sales in the Commerce Department’s report, helped push the Nasdaq into positive territory.\n“Looking at today, clearly we had positive news from retail sales and it looks as if the massive slowdown in the economy is not materializing as a lot of people expected,” said Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist at LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina.\n“It’s a nice reminder that the economy is still taking two steps forward for each step back even amid the COVID concerns,” Detrick added.\nEconomically sensitive transports and microchips were among the outperformers.\nData released before the opening bell showed an unexpected bump in retail sales as shoppers weathered Hurricane Ida and the COVID Delta variant, evidence of resilience in the consumer, who contributes about 70% to U.S. economic growth.\n“Once again, it shows the U.S. consumer continues to spend and continues to help this economy grow,” Detrick said.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 63.07 points, or 0.18%, to 34,751.32; the S&P 500 lost 6.95 points, or 0.16%, at 4,473.75; and the Nasdaq Composite added 20.40 points, or 0.13%, at 15,181.92.\nEight of the 11 major sectors in the S&P 500 ended lower, with materials suffering the largest percentage drop.\nThe consumer discretionary spending sector posted the biggest gain, with Amazon.com doing the heavy lifting.\nApparel company Gap Inc gained 1.6%. Online marketplace Etsy Inc and luxury accessory company Tapestry Inc rose 3.1% and 1.9%, respectively.\nFord Motor Co rose 1.4% after it announced plans to boost production of its F-150 electric pickup model.\nDeclining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.27-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.06-to-1 ratio favored advancers.\nThe S&P 500 posted nine new 52-week highs and one new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 82 new highs and 94 new lows.\nVolume on U.S. exchanges was 9.37 billion shares, compared with the 9.44 billion average over the last 20 trading days.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2782,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832149329,"gmtCreate":1629600897661,"gmtModify":1631890499518,"author":{"id":"4091706622349130","authorId":"4091706622349130","name":"Stephenlimmh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36bc849c38db97b89159d04639c780dd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091706622349130","idStr":"4091706622349130"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832149329","repostId":"1151608193","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151608193","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629728324,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1151608193?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-23 22:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股的回调——长期关注这 6 家公司</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151608193","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correcti","content":"<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p><p><blockquote>在股市的滚动调整中，芯片制造商受到的打击比大多数制造商都要大。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&amp;P 500,Nasdaq&nbsp;Composite&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%，而标准普尔 500 指数、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为 2% 或更少。</blockquote></p><p> Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着芯片股票值得买入？或者，这个历史上具有周期性的行业是否故技重施，陷入持续下跌趋势，让你大吃一惊。</blockquote></p><p> A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于您的时间表，但如果您喜欢持有股票多年，而不是租用几天，那么该集团值得购买。主要原因： “这次不一样”。</blockquote></p><p> Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p><p><blockquote>这些无疑是投资中最可怕的词语之一。但芯片行业已经发生了很大的变化，现在确实不同了——这表明它不太可能压垮你。</blockquote></p><p> You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为没有风险，那你就是个傻瓜。我会回顾一下这些。但首先，以下是该集团现在 “更安全 ”的三个主要原因--以及我在过去几天里与六位行业专家交谈过的六位行业专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.周期性的邪恶女巫死了</b></blockquote></p><p> “Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p><p><blockquote>“Impax Asset Management 的投资组合经理 David Winborne 说：”受产品周期的驱动，芯片行业的需求总是时好时坏。“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>电脑，然后是服务器，然后是电话。”但他表示，现在整个经济对芯片的需求已经扩大，因此长期增长故事更可预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>看看你周围。由于我们的生活和工作日益 “数字化 ”，终端市场需求从各个角度都更加多样化。把远程办公服务想象成<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">缩放</a>看好该集团的 Gabelli Funds 投资组合经理兼技术分析师 Hendi Susanto 指出，网上购物、云服务、电动汽车、5G 手机、智能工厂、大数据计算甚至洗衣机。</blockquote></p><p> “There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p><p><blockquote>“Motley Fool 芯片行业分析师 John Rotonti 说：”现代数字经济的任何方面都离不开半导体。“这意味着所有东西都有更多的筹码。长期需求是存在的”。</blockquote></p><p> He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William&nbsp;Blair&nbsp;analyst Greg Scolaro.</p><p><blockquote>他没开玩笑。威廉·布莱尔分析师格雷格·斯科拉罗预测，到2030年，芯片行业的收入将从2020年的4650亿美元翻一番，达到1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着，你听到的大范围供应短缺 “可能要到明年年底的某个时候才能得到解决”。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>芯片行业分析师 Vivek Arya。“这不仅是我们的观点，而且<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>大多数大客户都证实了这一点。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2、玩家巩固</b></blockquote></p><p> All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p><p><blockquote>在生产链的上下游，从设计到各类设备生产商再到制造，行业参与者已经整合成罗通蒂-评级 “赢得 ”的双头垄断或垄断。</blockquote></p><p> In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems&nbsp;and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML&nbsp;in extreme ultraviolet lithography&nbsp;(EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor&nbsp;and Samsung Electronics.</p><p><blockquote>在芯片设计软件中，你有Cadence Design Systems和Synopsys。在生产设备方面，公司在极紫外光刻 (EUV) 等专业领域占据主导地位，例如 ASML。制造业由台积电和三星电子主导。</blockquote></p><p> These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司通过在他们所做的事情上做到最好，赢得了他们的利基或双寡头地位。这使得投资者对它们感兴趣。Rotonti 表示，整合还意味着参与者在定价和产能方面的行为更加理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、盈利能力有所改善</b></blockquote></p><p> This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p><p><blockquote>这种更加理性的行为，加上成本削减，意味着现在的盈利能力比历史上高得多。“温伯恩说：”在过去的几年里，芯片制造的经济性有了很大的改善。现金流或 EBITDA 利润率现在通常超过 30%，而十年前则在 20% 左右。</blockquote></p><p> This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere &amp; Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p><p><blockquote>这对估值有影响。Villere &amp; Co. 的投资组合经理拉马尔·维莱尔 (Lamar Villere) 指出，尽管芯片股票的交易市盈率约为市盈率，但它们看起来很便宜，因为它们是更好的公司。“他们并没有以泡沫倍数进行交易”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The stocks to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要买的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我最近核实的芯片专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New management plays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新管理层玩法</b></blockquote></p><p> Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm&nbsp;and ON Semiconductor.</p><p><blockquote>尽管 Thrivent 高级股票研究分析师彼得·卡拉泽里斯 (Peter Karazeris) 有理由对该集团持谨慎态度（见下文），但他特别指出了两家公司的业绩可能会因为新管理层而得到提振：高通和安森美半导体。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p><p><blockquote>两者都具有稳定的盈利能力。高通最近受到德克萨斯州恶劣天气等一次性问题的打击，导致生产中断，但该公司对5G手机趋势有很好的了解。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">半导体</a>正在将手机以外的领域扩展到汽车、工业和物联网等新领域——联网设备领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A data center and gaming play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据中心和游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p><p><blockquote>Karazeris 还特别提到了 Nvidia， 由于其卓越的设计能力， Nvidia 从数据中心和游戏设备芯片需求中获得了持续提振。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Design tool companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>设计工具公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p><p><blockquote>说到设计，当高通和英伟达等公司想要设计芯片时，他们会求助于Cadence Design Systems提供的设计工具和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">概要</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool 的 Rotonti 解释说，他们基于软件的设计工具可以帮助芯片创新者为他们的芯片创建蓝图，他特别指出了这些名字。“他们不是世界上增长最快的公司，但他们的利润率很高”。他们也主宰了太空。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An EUV&nbsp;play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EUV游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>为了在芯片生产的早期阶段将这些蓝图应用到硅上，台积电和三星等公司转向了ASML。它的机器使用微小的光脉冲将芯片设计模板印在硅片上，这一过程称为极紫外线光刻。“罗通蒂说：”其他人还没有想出怎么做。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它在供应这样做的机器方面拥有垄断地位——这对于任何想要制造领先芯片的公司来说都是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p><p><blockquote>以下是芯片行业投资者需要关注的一些主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oversupply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供过于求</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p><p><blockquote>芯片生产已经政治化。美国希望在国内生产更多，这样它就不会受到中国供应链中断的影响。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>Winborne 表示，希望到 2025 年生产其使用的芯片的 70%，高于目前的 5%。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p><p><blockquote>结果是，政府为促进制造业提供了大量支持，因此会有更多支持。风险是未来某个时候供应过剩。这也可能会推动芯片设备的采购，导致未来的平静，这可能会损害设备制造商的销售和利润率趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple&nbsp;and Ammazon.com&nbsp;are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，像Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊这样的大型科技公司都在做自己的芯片设计，这威胁到了做同样事情的专业芯片公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">量子的</a>计算机的</b></blockquote></p><p> Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p><p><blockquote>William Blair 的 Scolaro 指出，使用基于量子物理学的芯片设计而不是传统半导体架构的计算机具有卓越的性能。“虽然量子计算可能至少在未来五年内不会成为主流，但它有潜力改变从技术到医疗保健的一切。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A disturbing signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>干扰信号</b></blockquote></p><p> A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>全球采购经理人 (PMI) 指数在 4 月份达到峰值，然后连续三个月放缓。与此同时，芯片销售持续增长。Thrivent 跟踪该指标的 Karazeris 指出，通常两者遵循相同的趋势。他将这种差异归因于库存积累，而库存积累不如真正的终端市场需求可持续。因此，他认为这种背离是芯片行业的看跌信号。</blockquote></p><p> Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory&nbsp;(DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p><p><blockquote>另一个警告信号来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片定价的预测疲软。“卡拉泽里斯说：”这些通常是在周期的顶部而不是底部看到的东西。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>但也有可能全球采购经理人指数的放缓更多的是芯片短缺的反映，而不是短缺并非真实存在的迹象（只是库存积压）。“Leuthold 经济学家兼策略师吉姆-保尔森（Jim Paulsen）说：”这种分歧并不一定意味着芯片订单会翻盘消亡。这意味着芯片制造业必须迎头赶上。</blockquote></p><p> Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，福特刚刚宣布不得不减产是因为芯片短缺，而不是潜在需求不足。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预测，由于高储蓄率、就业和收入反弹以及对大件商品被压抑的需求等因素，体面的经济增长是可持续的。如果他是对的，持续的经济实力将支撑对所有使用芯片的产品的需求，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股的回调——长期关注这 6 家公司</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股的回调——长期关注这 6 家公司</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-23 22:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p><p><blockquote>在股市的滚动调整中，芯片制造商受到的打击比大多数制造商都要大。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&amp;P 500,Nasdaq&nbsp;Composite&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%，而标准普尔 500 指数、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为 2% 或更少。</blockquote></p><p> Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着芯片股票值得买入？或者，这个历史上具有周期性的行业是否故技重施，陷入持续下跌趋势，让你大吃一惊。</blockquote></p><p> A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于您的时间表，但如果您喜欢持有股票多年，而不是租用几天，那么该集团值得购买。主要原因： “这次不一样”。</blockquote></p><p> Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p><p><blockquote>这些无疑是投资中最可怕的词语之一。但芯片行业已经发生了很大的变化，现在确实不同了——这表明它不太可能压垮你。</blockquote></p><p> You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为没有风险，那你就是个傻瓜。我会回顾一下这些。但首先，以下是该集团现在 “更安全 ”的三个主要原因--以及我在过去几天里与六位行业专家交谈过的六位行业专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.周期性的邪恶女巫死了</b></blockquote></p><p> “Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p><p><blockquote>“Impax Asset Management 的投资组合经理 David Winborne 说：”受产品周期的驱动，芯片行业的需求总是时好时坏。“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>电脑，然后是服务器，然后是电话。”但他表示，现在整个经济对芯片的需求已经扩大，因此长期增长故事更可预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>看看你周围。由于我们的生活和工作日益 “数字化 ”，终端市场需求从各个角度都更加多样化。把远程办公服务想象成<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">缩放</a>看好该集团的 Gabelli Funds 投资组合经理兼技术分析师 Hendi Susanto 指出，网上购物、云服务、电动汽车、5G 手机、智能工厂、大数据计算甚至洗衣机。</blockquote></p><p> “There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p><p><blockquote>“Motley Fool 芯片行业分析师 John Rotonti 说：”现代数字经济的任何方面都离不开半导体。“这意味着所有东西都有更多的筹码。长期需求是存在的”。</blockquote></p><p> He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William&nbsp;Blair&nbsp;analyst Greg Scolaro.</p><p><blockquote>他没开玩笑。威廉·布莱尔分析师格雷格·斯科拉罗预测，到2030年，芯片行业的收入将从2020年的4650亿美元翻一番，达到1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着，你听到的大范围供应短缺 “可能要到明年年底的某个时候才能得到解决”。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>芯片行业分析师 Vivek Arya。“这不仅是我们的观点，而且<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>大多数大客户都证实了这一点。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2、玩家巩固</b></blockquote></p><p> All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p><p><blockquote>在生产链的上下游，从设计到各类设备生产商再到制造，行业参与者已经整合成罗通蒂-评级 “赢得 ”的双头垄断或垄断。</blockquote></p><p> In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems&nbsp;and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML&nbsp;in extreme ultraviolet lithography&nbsp;(EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor&nbsp;and Samsung Electronics.</p><p><blockquote>在芯片设计软件中，你有Cadence Design Systems和Synopsys。在生产设备方面，公司在极紫外光刻 (EUV) 等专业领域占据主导地位，例如 ASML。制造业由台积电和三星电子主导。</blockquote></p><p> These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司通过在他们所做的事情上做到最好，赢得了他们的利基或双寡头地位。这使得投资者对它们感兴趣。Rotonti 表示，整合还意味着参与者在定价和产能方面的行为更加理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、盈利能力有所改善</b></blockquote></p><p> This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p><p><blockquote>这种更加理性的行为，加上成本削减，意味着现在的盈利能力比历史上高得多。“温伯恩说：”在过去的几年里，芯片制造的经济性有了很大的改善。现金流或 EBITDA 利润率现在通常超过 30%，而十年前则在 20% 左右。</blockquote></p><p> This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere &amp; Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p><p><blockquote>这对估值有影响。Villere &amp; Co. 的投资组合经理拉马尔·维莱尔 (Lamar Villere) 指出，尽管芯片股票的交易市盈率约为市盈率，但它们看起来很便宜，因为它们是更好的公司。“他们并没有以泡沫倍数进行交易”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The stocks to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要买的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我最近核实的芯片专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New management plays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新管理层玩法</b></blockquote></p><p> Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm&nbsp;and ON Semiconductor.</p><p><blockquote>尽管 Thrivent 高级股票研究分析师彼得·卡拉泽里斯 (Peter Karazeris) 有理由对该集团持谨慎态度（见下文），但他特别指出了两家公司的业绩可能会因为新管理层而得到提振：高通和安森美半导体。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p><p><blockquote>两者都具有稳定的盈利能力。高通最近受到德克萨斯州恶劣天气等一次性问题的打击，导致生产中断，但该公司对5G手机趋势有很好的了解。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">半导体</a>正在将手机以外的领域扩展到汽车、工业和物联网等新领域——联网设备领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A data center and gaming play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据中心和游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p><p><blockquote>Karazeris 还特别提到了 Nvidia， 由于其卓越的设计能力， Nvidia 从数据中心和游戏设备芯片需求中获得了持续提振。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Design tool companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>设计工具公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p><p><blockquote>说到设计，当高通和英伟达等公司想要设计芯片时，他们会求助于Cadence Design Systems提供的设计工具和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">概要</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool 的 Rotonti 解释说，他们基于软件的设计工具可以帮助芯片创新者为他们的芯片创建蓝图，他特别指出了这些名字。“他们不是世界上增长最快的公司，但他们的利润率很高”。他们也主宰了太空。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An EUV&nbsp;play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EUV游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>为了在芯片生产的早期阶段将这些蓝图应用到硅上，台积电和三星等公司转向了ASML。它的机器使用微小的光脉冲将芯片设计模板印在硅片上，这一过程称为极紫外线光刻。“罗通蒂说：”其他人还没有想出怎么做。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它在供应这样做的机器方面拥有垄断地位——这对于任何想要制造领先芯片的公司来说都是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p><p><blockquote>以下是芯片行业投资者需要关注的一些主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oversupply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供过于求</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p><p><blockquote>芯片生产已经政治化。美国希望在国内生产更多，这样它就不会受到中国供应链中断的影响。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>Winborne 表示，希望到 2025 年生产其使用的芯片的 70%，高于目前的 5%。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p><p><blockquote>结果是，政府为促进制造业提供了大量支持，因此会有更多支持。风险是未来某个时候供应过剩。这也可能会推动芯片设备的采购，导致未来的平静，这可能会损害设备制造商的销售和利润率趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple&nbsp;and Ammazon.com&nbsp;are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，像Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊这样的大型科技公司都在做自己的芯片设计，这威胁到了做同样事情的专业芯片公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">量子的</a>计算机的</b></blockquote></p><p> Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p><p><blockquote>William Blair 的 Scolaro 指出，使用基于量子物理学的芯片设计而不是传统半导体架构的计算机具有卓越的性能。“虽然量子计算可能至少在未来五年内不会成为主流，但它有潜力改变从技术到医疗保健的一切。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A disturbing signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>干扰信号</b></blockquote></p><p> A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>全球采购经理人 (PMI) 指数在 4 月份达到峰值，然后连续三个月放缓。与此同时，芯片销售持续增长。Thrivent 跟踪该指标的 Karazeris 指出，通常两者遵循相同的趋势。他将这种差异归因于库存积累，而库存积累不如真正的终端市场需求可持续。因此，他认为这种背离是芯片行业的看跌信号。</blockquote></p><p> Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory&nbsp;(DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p><p><blockquote>另一个警告信号来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片定价的预测疲软。“卡拉泽里斯说：”这些通常是在周期的顶部而不是底部看到的东西。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>但也有可能全球采购经理人指数的放缓更多的是芯片短缺的反映，而不是短缺并非真实存在的迹象（只是库存积压）。“Leuthold 经济学家兼策略师吉姆-保尔森（Jim Paulsen）说：”这种分歧并不一定意味着芯片订单会翻盘消亡。这意味着芯片制造业必须迎头赶上。</blockquote></p><p> Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，福特刚刚宣布不得不减产是因为芯片短缺，而不是潜在需求不足。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预测，由于高储蓄率、就业和收入反弹以及对大件商品被压抑的需求等因素，体面的经济增长是可持续的。如果他是对的，持续的经济实力将支撑对所有使用芯片的产品的需求，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ASML":"阿斯麦","AAPL":"苹果","AMZN":"亚马逊","CDNS":"铿腾电子","SNPS":"新思科技","SSNLF":"三星电子","TSM":"台积电","GOOG":"谷歌","SOXX":"iShares费城交易所半导体ETF","NVDA":"英伟达","ON":"安森美半导体","QCOM":"高通","GOOGL":"谷歌A"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151608193","content_text":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.\nThe iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&P 500,Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.\nDoes that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.\nA lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”\nThose are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.\nYou’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.\n1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead\n“Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “First PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.\nJust look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like Zoom, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.\n“There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”\nHe’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William Blair analyst Greg Scolaro.\nAll of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says Bank of America chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but one confirmed by a majority of large customers.”\n2. The players have consolidated\nAll up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.\nIn chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML in extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung Electronics.\nThese companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.\n3. Profitability has improved\nThis more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.\nThis has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere & Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”\nThe stocks to buy\nHere are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.\nNew management plays\nThough Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm and ON Semiconductor.\nBoth have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. ON Semiconductor is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.\nA data center and gaming play\nKarazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.\nDesign tool companies\nSpeaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.\nTheir software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.\nAn EUV play\nTo put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.\nIn other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.\nRisks\nHere are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.\nOversupply\nChip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. China wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.\nThe upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.\nNext, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple and Ammazon.com are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.\nQuantum computing\nComputers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”\nA disturbing signal\nA blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.\nAnother cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.\nBut it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.\nFord,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.\nPaulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including Ford cars.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOGL":0.9,"TSM":0.9,"SSNLF":0.9,"ASML":0.9,"ON":0.9,"QCOM":0.9,"CDNS":0.9,"SOXX":0.9,"SNPS":0.9,"NVDA":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"GOOG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2077,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831776729,"gmtCreate":1629354648661,"gmtModify":1631890499539,"author":{"id":"4091706622349130","authorId":"4091706622349130","name":"Stephenlimmh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36bc849c38db97b89159d04639c780dd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091706622349130","idStr":"4091706622349130"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Know knowns, known unknowns, unknown unknowns","listText":"Know knowns, known unknowns, unknown unknowns","text":"Know knowns, known unknowns, unknown unknowns","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831776729","repostId":"1181909905","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181909905","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629332628,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1181909905?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-19 08:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla AI Day Is Thursday. Why It’s a Big Day for the Stock.<blockquote>特斯拉人工智能日是周四。为什么今天是该股的重要日子。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181909905","media":"Barrons","summary":"Former defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld said there are known knowns—things people know—known unknowns—things people know they don’t know—and unknown unknowns—things people don’t realize they don’t know. That pretty much sums up autonomous driving technology these days.It isn’t clear how long it will take the auto industry to deliver truly self-driving cars. Thursday evening, however, investors will get an education about what’s state of the art when Tesla  hosts its artificial intelligence day.","content":"<p>Former defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld said there are known knowns—things people know—known unknowns—things people know they don’t know—and unknown unknowns—things people don’t realize they don’t know. That pretty much sums up autonomous driving technology these days.</p><p><blockquote>前国防部长唐纳德-拉姆斯菲尔德（Donald Rumsfeld）说，有已知的已知--人们知道的事情--已知的未知--人们知道但不知道的事情--和未知的未知--人们没有意识到他们不知道的事情。这几乎概括了当今自动驾驶技术。</blockquote></p><p> It isn’t clear how long it will take the auto industry to deliver truly self-driving cars. Thursday evening, however, investors will get an education about what’s state of the art when Tesla (ticker: TSLA) hosts its artificial intelligence day.</p><p><blockquote>目前还不清楚汽车行业需要多长时间才能交付真正的自动驾驶汽车。不过，本周四晚上，特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）将举办人工智能日，届时投资者将了解最先进的技术。</blockquote></p><p> The event will likely be livestreamed on the company’s website beginning around 5 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. A link to the webcast isn’t available yet. The company didn’t respond to a request for comment about the agenda for the event.</p><p><blockquote>该活动可能会在东部标准时间下午 5 点左右开始在公司网站上进行现场直播。目前还没有网络直播的链接。该公司没有回应就活动议程发表评论的请求。</blockquote></p><p> Much of what will get talked about won’t be a surprise, even if investors don’t understand it all. Those are known unknowns.</p><p><blockquote>即使投资者并不了解所有内容，许多将被讨论的内容也不会让人感到意外。这些都是已知的未知数。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla should update investors about its driver assistance feature dubbed full self driving. What’s more, the company will describe the benefit of vertical integration. Tesla makes the hardware—its own computers with its own microchips—and its software. Tesla might even give a more definitive timeline for when Level 4 autonomous vehicles will be ready.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉应该向投资者介绍其被称为全自动驾驶的驾驶员辅助功能。此外，公司还将介绍垂直整合的好处。特斯拉制造硬件——带有自己微芯片的自己的计算机——和自己的软件。特斯拉甚至可能会给出更明确的 4 级自动驾驶汽车何时准备就绪的时间表。</blockquote></p><p> Roth Capital analyst&nbsp;Craig Irwin&nbsp;doesn’t believe Level 4 technology is on the horizon though. He tells<i>Barron’s</i>the computing power and camera resolution just isn’t there yet. “Tesla will work hard to suggest tech leadership in AI for automotive,” says Irwin. “Reality will probably be much less exciting than their claims.”</p><p><blockquote>不过，罗斯资本（Roth Capital）分析师克雷格-欧文（Craig Irwin）并不认为 4 级技术即将问世。他告诉<i>巴伦</i>计算能力和相机分辨率还不具备。“欧文说：”特斯拉将努力在汽车人工智能领域发挥技术领导作用。“现实可能远没有他们的说法那么令人兴奋。”</blockquote></p><p> Irwin rates Tesla shares Hold. His price target is just $150 a share.</p><p><blockquote>欧文持有特斯拉股票。他的目标价仅为每股 150 美元。</blockquote></p><p> The car industry essentially defines&nbsp;five levels of autonomous driving. Level 1 is nothing more than cruise control. Level 2 systems are available on cars today and combine features such as adaptive cruise and lane-keeping assistance, enabling the car to do a lot on its own. Drivers, however, still need to pay attention 100% of the time with Level 2 systems.</p><p><blockquote>汽车行业基本上定义了自动驾驶的五个级别。一级无非就是巡航控制。如今，Level 2 系统可用于汽车，并结合了自适应巡航和车道保持辅助等功能，使汽车能够自行完成很多事情。然而，驾驶员仍然需要100%的时间关注2级系统。</blockquote></p><p> Level 3 systems would allow drivers to stop paying attention part of the time. Level 4 would let them stop paying attention most of the time. And Level 5 means the car does everything always. “Level 5 autonomy isn’t an easy endeavor,” says Global X analyst&nbsp;Pedro Palandrani. There are so many unique cases for technology to tackle, like in bad weather or dirt roads. “But level 4 is enough to change the world.” he added. He is more optimistic than Irwin about the timing for Level 4 systems and hopes Tesla provides more timing detail at its event.</p><p><blockquote>3级系统将允许司机在部分时间停止注意力。四级会让他们大部分时间都不再注意。第 5 级意味着汽车总是做所有事情。“Global X 分析师佩德罗-帕兰德拉尼（Pedro Palandrani）说：”5 级自主权并非易事。技术有很多独特的情况需要解决，比如在恶劣天气或土路上。“但第四层足以改变世界。”他补充道。他对4级系统的时间安排比欧文更乐观，并希望特斯拉在其活动中提供更多的时间安排细节。</blockquote></p><p> Beyond a technology run down and level 4 timing, the company might have some surprises up its sleeve for investors. Palandrani has two ideas.</p><p><blockquote>除了技术崩溃和 4 级时机之外，该公司可能会给投资者带来一些惊喜。帕兰德拉尼有两个想法。</blockquote></p><p> For starters, Tesla might indicate it’s willing to sell its hardware and software to other car companies. That would give Tesla other unexpected, sources of income. Tesla already offers its full self driving as a monthly subscription to owners of its cars. That’s new for the car industry and opens up a source of recurring revenue for anyone with the requisite technology. Selling hardware and software to other car companies, however, would be new, and surprising, for investors.</p><p><blockquote>首先，特斯拉可能会表示愿意将其硬件和软件出售给其他汽车公司。这将给特斯拉带来其他意想不到的收入来源。特斯拉已经向车主提供全自动驾驶服务，按月订阅。这对汽车行业来说是新鲜事，也为任何拥有必要技术的人开辟了经常性收入来源。然而，对于投资者来说，向其他汽车公司出售硬件和软件是新鲜且令人惊讶的。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla might also talk about its advancements in robotics. CEO&nbsp;Elon Musk&nbsp;has talked often in the past about the difficulty of making the machine that makes the machine. Some of Tesla’s AI efforts might also be targeted at building, and not just driving, vehicles. “We’re just making a crazy amount of machinery internally,” said Musk on the company’s second-quarter conference call. “This is….not well understood.”</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉也可能会谈论其在机器人技术方面的进步。首席执行官埃隆·马斯克过去经常谈到制造机器的困难。特斯拉的一些人工智能工作也可能针对制造汽车，而不仅仅是驾驶汽车。“马斯克在公司第二季度电话会议上说：”我们正在内部制造大量的机器。“这……不太明白。”</blockquote></p><p> Those are two items that can surprise. Whether they, or other tidbits, will move the stock is something else entirely.</p><p><blockquote>这是两个令人惊讶的项目。它们或其他花絮是否会影响股票完全是另一回事。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock dropped about 7% over Monday and Tuesday partly because NHTSA disclosed it was&nbsp;looking into accidents&nbsp;involving Tesla’s driver assistance features. Tesla will surely stress the safety benefits of driver assistance features on Thursday, whether it can shake off that bit of bad news though is harder to tell.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价周一和周二下跌约 7%，部分原因是美国国家公路交通安全管理局（NHTSA）披露正在调查涉及特斯拉驾驶辅助功能的事故。特斯拉肯定会在周四强调驾驶员辅助功能的安全优势，但它是否能摆脱这一点坏消息还很难说。</blockquote></p><p> “Thursday becomes a much more important event in light of this week’s [NHTSA] probe,” says Wedbush analyst&nbsp;Dan Ives. “This week has been another tough week for Tesla [stock] and the Street needs some good news heading into this AI event.”</p><p><blockquote>“韦德布什分析师丹-艾夫斯（Dan Ives）说：”鉴于本周的[NHTSA]调查，周四将成为一个更加重要的事件。“本周对特斯拉[股票]来说又是艰难的一周，华尔街需要一些好消息来迎接这场人工智能盛会。”</blockquote></p><p> Ives rates Tesla shares Buy and has a $1,000 price target for the stock. Tesla’s autonomous driving leadership is part of his bullish take on shares.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯将特斯拉股票评级为买入，并将该股目标价定为 1,000 美元。特斯拉在自动驾驶领域的领导地位是他看好股票的一部分。</blockquote></p><p> If history is any guide investors should expect volatility. Tesla stock dropped 10% the day following its&nbsp;battery technology eventi&nbsp;n September 2020. It took shares about seven trading days to recover, and Tesla stock gained about 86% from the battery event to year-end.</p><p><blockquote>如果历史可以作为指导，投资者应该预料到波动性。特斯拉股价在 2020 年 9 月电池技术事件发生后的第二天下跌了 10%。股价花了大约七个交易日才恢复，特斯拉股价从电池事件到年底上涨了约 86%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Tesla stock is down about 6% year to date, trailing behind the 18% and 15% comparable, respective gains of the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;and&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average.Tesla stock hasn’t moved much, in absolute terms, since March. Shares were in the high $600s back then. They closed down 3% at $665.71 on Tuesday, but rose 3.5% at $688.99 on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价今年迄今已下跌约 6%，落后于标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数分别上涨 18% 和 15%。当时股价高达 600 美元。周二收盘下跌 3%，至 665.71 美元，但周三上涨 3.5%，至 688.99 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla AI Day Is Thursday. Why It’s a Big Day for the Stock.<blockquote>特斯拉人工智能日是周四。为什么今天是该股的重要日子。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla AI Day Is Thursday. Why It’s a Big Day for the Stock.<blockquote>特斯拉人工智能日是周四。为什么今天是该股的重要日子。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-19 08:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Former defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld said there are known knowns—things people know—known unknowns—things people know they don’t know—and unknown unknowns—things people don’t realize they don’t know. That pretty much sums up autonomous driving technology these days.</p><p><blockquote>前国防部长唐纳德-拉姆斯菲尔德（Donald Rumsfeld）说，有已知的已知--人们知道的事情--已知的未知--人们知道但不知道的事情--和未知的未知--人们没有意识到他们不知道的事情。这几乎概括了当今自动驾驶技术。</blockquote></p><p> It isn’t clear how long it will take the auto industry to deliver truly self-driving cars. Thursday evening, however, investors will get an education about what’s state of the art when Tesla (ticker: TSLA) hosts its artificial intelligence day.</p><p><blockquote>目前还不清楚汽车行业需要多长时间才能交付真正的自动驾驶汽车。不过，本周四晚上，特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）将举办人工智能日，届时投资者将了解最先进的技术。</blockquote></p><p> The event will likely be livestreamed on the company’s website beginning around 5 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. A link to the webcast isn’t available yet. The company didn’t respond to a request for comment about the agenda for the event.</p><p><blockquote>该活动可能会在东部标准时间下午 5 点左右开始在公司网站上进行现场直播。目前还没有网络直播的链接。该公司没有回应就活动议程发表评论的请求。</blockquote></p><p> Much of what will get talked about won’t be a surprise, even if investors don’t understand it all. Those are known unknowns.</p><p><blockquote>即使投资者并不了解所有内容，许多将被讨论的内容也不会让人感到意外。这些都是已知的未知数。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla should update investors about its driver assistance feature dubbed full self driving. What’s more, the company will describe the benefit of vertical integration. Tesla makes the hardware—its own computers with its own microchips—and its software. Tesla might even give a more definitive timeline for when Level 4 autonomous vehicles will be ready.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉应该向投资者介绍其被称为全自动驾驶的驾驶员辅助功能。此外，公司还将介绍垂直整合的好处。特斯拉制造硬件——带有自己微芯片的自己的计算机——和自己的软件。特斯拉甚至可能会给出更明确的 4 级自动驾驶汽车何时准备就绪的时间表。</blockquote></p><p> Roth Capital analyst&nbsp;Craig Irwin&nbsp;doesn’t believe Level 4 technology is on the horizon though. He tells<i>Barron’s</i>the computing power and camera resolution just isn’t there yet. “Tesla will work hard to suggest tech leadership in AI for automotive,” says Irwin. “Reality will probably be much less exciting than their claims.”</p><p><blockquote>不过，罗斯资本（Roth Capital）分析师克雷格-欧文（Craig Irwin）并不认为 4 级技术即将问世。他告诉<i>巴伦</i>计算能力和相机分辨率还不具备。“欧文说：”特斯拉将努力在汽车人工智能领域发挥技术领导作用。“现实可能远没有他们的说法那么令人兴奋。”</blockquote></p><p> Irwin rates Tesla shares Hold. His price target is just $150 a share.</p><p><blockquote>欧文持有特斯拉股票。他的目标价仅为每股 150 美元。</blockquote></p><p> The car industry essentially defines&nbsp;five levels of autonomous driving. Level 1 is nothing more than cruise control. Level 2 systems are available on cars today and combine features such as adaptive cruise and lane-keeping assistance, enabling the car to do a lot on its own. Drivers, however, still need to pay attention 100% of the time with Level 2 systems.</p><p><blockquote>汽车行业基本上定义了自动驾驶的五个级别。一级无非就是巡航控制。如今，Level 2 系统可用于汽车，并结合了自适应巡航和车道保持辅助等功能，使汽车能够自行完成很多事情。然而，驾驶员仍然需要100%的时间关注2级系统。</blockquote></p><p> Level 3 systems would allow drivers to stop paying attention part of the time. Level 4 would let them stop paying attention most of the time. And Level 5 means the car does everything always. “Level 5 autonomy isn’t an easy endeavor,” says Global X analyst&nbsp;Pedro Palandrani. There are so many unique cases for technology to tackle, like in bad weather or dirt roads. “But level 4 is enough to change the world.” he added. He is more optimistic than Irwin about the timing for Level 4 systems and hopes Tesla provides more timing detail at its event.</p><p><blockquote>3级系统将允许司机在部分时间停止注意力。四级会让他们大部分时间都不再注意。第 5 级意味着汽车总是做所有事情。“Global X 分析师佩德罗-帕兰德拉尼（Pedro Palandrani）说：”5 级自主权并非易事。技术有很多独特的情况需要解决，比如在恶劣天气或土路上。“但第四层足以改变世界。”他补充道。他对4级系统的时间安排比欧文更乐观，并希望特斯拉在其活动中提供更多的时间安排细节。</blockquote></p><p> Beyond a technology run down and level 4 timing, the company might have some surprises up its sleeve for investors. Palandrani has two ideas.</p><p><blockquote>除了技术崩溃和 4 级时机之外，该公司可能会给投资者带来一些惊喜。帕兰德拉尼有两个想法。</blockquote></p><p> For starters, Tesla might indicate it’s willing to sell its hardware and software to other car companies. That would give Tesla other unexpected, sources of income. Tesla already offers its full self driving as a monthly subscription to owners of its cars. That’s new for the car industry and opens up a source of recurring revenue for anyone with the requisite technology. Selling hardware and software to other car companies, however, would be new, and surprising, for investors.</p><p><blockquote>首先，特斯拉可能会表示愿意将其硬件和软件出售给其他汽车公司。这将给特斯拉带来其他意想不到的收入来源。特斯拉已经向车主提供全自动驾驶服务，按月订阅。这对汽车行业来说是新鲜事，也为任何拥有必要技术的人开辟了经常性收入来源。然而，对于投资者来说，向其他汽车公司出售硬件和软件是新鲜且令人惊讶的。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla might also talk about its advancements in robotics. CEO&nbsp;Elon Musk&nbsp;has talked often in the past about the difficulty of making the machine that makes the machine. Some of Tesla’s AI efforts might also be targeted at building, and not just driving, vehicles. “We’re just making a crazy amount of machinery internally,” said Musk on the company’s second-quarter conference call. “This is….not well understood.”</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉也可能会谈论其在机器人技术方面的进步。首席执行官埃隆·马斯克过去经常谈到制造机器的困难。特斯拉的一些人工智能工作也可能针对制造汽车，而不仅仅是驾驶汽车。“马斯克在公司第二季度电话会议上说：”我们正在内部制造大量的机器。“这……不太明白。”</blockquote></p><p> Those are two items that can surprise. Whether they, or other tidbits, will move the stock is something else entirely.</p><p><blockquote>这是两个令人惊讶的项目。它们或其他花絮是否会影响股票完全是另一回事。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock dropped about 7% over Monday and Tuesday partly because NHTSA disclosed it was&nbsp;looking into accidents&nbsp;involving Tesla’s driver assistance features. Tesla will surely stress the safety benefits of driver assistance features on Thursday, whether it can shake off that bit of bad news though is harder to tell.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价周一和周二下跌约 7%，部分原因是美国国家公路交通安全管理局（NHTSA）披露正在调查涉及特斯拉驾驶辅助功能的事故。特斯拉肯定会在周四强调驾驶员辅助功能的安全优势，但它是否能摆脱这一点坏消息还很难说。</blockquote></p><p> “Thursday becomes a much more important event in light of this week’s [NHTSA] probe,” says Wedbush analyst&nbsp;Dan Ives. “This week has been another tough week for Tesla [stock] and the Street needs some good news heading into this AI event.”</p><p><blockquote>“韦德布什分析师丹-艾夫斯（Dan Ives）说：”鉴于本周的[NHTSA]调查，周四将成为一个更加重要的事件。“本周对特斯拉[股票]来说又是艰难的一周，华尔街需要一些好消息来迎接这场人工智能盛会。”</blockquote></p><p> Ives rates Tesla shares Buy and has a $1,000 price target for the stock. Tesla’s autonomous driving leadership is part of his bullish take on shares.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯将特斯拉股票评级为买入，并将该股目标价定为 1,000 美元。特斯拉在自动驾驶领域的领导地位是他看好股票的一部分。</blockquote></p><p> If history is any guide investors should expect volatility. Tesla stock dropped 10% the day following its&nbsp;battery technology eventi&nbsp;n September 2020. It took shares about seven trading days to recover, and Tesla stock gained about 86% from the battery event to year-end.</p><p><blockquote>如果历史可以作为指导，投资者应该预料到波动性。特斯拉股价在 2020 年 9 月电池技术事件发生后的第二天下跌了 10%。股价花了大约七个交易日才恢复，特斯拉股价从电池事件到年底上涨了约 86%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Tesla stock is down about 6% year to date, trailing behind the 18% and 15% comparable, respective gains of the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;and&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average.Tesla stock hasn’t moved much, in absolute terms, since March. Shares were in the high $600s back then. They closed down 3% at $665.71 on Tuesday, but rose 3.5% at $688.99 on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价今年迄今已下跌约 6%，落后于标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数分别上涨 18% 和 15%。当时股价高达 600 美元。周二收盘下跌 3%，至 665.71 美元，但周三上涨 3.5%，至 688.99 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-ai-day-51629244043?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_1\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-ai-day-51629244043?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181909905","content_text":"Former defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld said there are known knowns—things people know—known unknowns—things people know they don’t know—and unknown unknowns—things people don’t realize they don’t know. That pretty much sums up autonomous driving technology these days.\nIt isn’t clear how long it will take the auto industry to deliver truly self-driving cars. Thursday evening, however, investors will get an education about what’s state of the art when Tesla (ticker: TSLA) hosts its artificial intelligence day.\nThe event will likely be livestreamed on the company’s website beginning around 5 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. A link to the webcast isn’t available yet. The company didn’t respond to a request for comment about the agenda for the event.\nMuch of what will get talked about won’t be a surprise, even if investors don’t understand it all. Those are known unknowns.\nTesla should update investors about its driver assistance feature dubbed full self driving. What’s more, the company will describe the benefit of vertical integration. Tesla makes the hardware—its own computers with its own microchips—and its software. Tesla might even give a more definitive timeline for when Level 4 autonomous vehicles will be ready.\nRoth Capital analyst Craig Irwin doesn’t believe Level 4 technology is on the horizon though. He tellsBarron’sthe computing power and camera resolution just isn’t there yet. “Tesla will work hard to suggest tech leadership in AI for automotive,” says Irwin. “Reality will probably be much less exciting than their claims.”\nIrwin rates Tesla shares Hold. His price target is just $150 a share.\nThe car industry essentially defines five levels of autonomous driving. Level 1 is nothing more than cruise control. Level 2 systems are available on cars today and combine features such as adaptive cruise and lane-keeping assistance, enabling the car to do a lot on its own. Drivers, however, still need to pay attention 100% of the time with Level 2 systems.\nLevel 3 systems would allow drivers to stop paying attention part of the time. Level 4 would let them stop paying attention most of the time. And Level 5 means the car does everything always. “Level 5 autonomy isn’t an easy endeavor,” says Global X analyst Pedro Palandrani. There are so many unique cases for technology to tackle, like in bad weather or dirt roads. “But level 4 is enough to change the world.” he added. He is more optimistic than Irwin about the timing for Level 4 systems and hopes Tesla provides more timing detail at its event.\nBeyond a technology run down and level 4 timing, the company might have some surprises up its sleeve for investors. Palandrani has two ideas.\nFor starters, Tesla might indicate it’s willing to sell its hardware and software to other car companies. That would give Tesla other unexpected, sources of income. Tesla already offers its full self driving as a monthly subscription to owners of its cars. That’s new for the car industry and opens up a source of recurring revenue for anyone with the requisite technology. Selling hardware and software to other car companies, however, would be new, and surprising, for investors.\nTesla might also talk about its advancements in robotics. CEO Elon Musk has talked often in the past about the difficulty of making the machine that makes the machine. Some of Tesla’s AI efforts might also be targeted at building, and not just driving, vehicles. “We’re just making a crazy amount of machinery internally,” said Musk on the company’s second-quarter conference call. “This is….not well understood.”\nThose are two items that can surprise. Whether they, or other tidbits, will move the stock is something else entirely.\nTesla stock dropped about 7% over Monday and Tuesday partly because NHTSA disclosed it was looking into accidents involving Tesla’s driver assistance features. Tesla will surely stress the safety benefits of driver assistance features on Thursday, whether it can shake off that bit of bad news though is harder to tell.\n“Thursday becomes a much more important event in light of this week’s [NHTSA] probe,” says Wedbush analyst Dan Ives. “This week has been another tough week for Tesla [stock] and the Street needs some good news heading into this AI event.”\nIves rates Tesla shares Buy and has a $1,000 price target for the stock. Tesla’s autonomous driving leadership is part of his bullish take on shares.\nIf history is any guide investors should expect volatility. Tesla stock dropped 10% the day following its battery technology eventi n September 2020. It took shares about seven trading days to recover, and Tesla stock gained about 86% from the battery event to year-end.\nTesla stock is down about 6% year to date, trailing behind the 18% and 15% comparable, respective gains of the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average.Tesla stock hasn’t moved much, in absolute terms, since March. Shares were in the high $600s back then. They closed down 3% at $665.71 on Tuesday, but rose 3.5% at $688.99 on Wednesday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2070,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":836106966,"gmtCreate":1629461558255,"gmtModify":1631890499530,"author":{"id":"4091706622349130","authorId":"4091706622349130","name":"Stephenlimmh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36bc849c38db97b89159d04639c780dd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091706622349130","idStr":"4091706622349130"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Oh dear","listText":"Oh dear","text":"Oh dear","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/836106966","repostId":"1180272232","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2555,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880216965,"gmtCreate":1631059637457,"gmtModify":1631890400759,"author":{"id":"4091706622349130","authorId":"4091706622349130","name":"Stephenlimmh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36bc849c38db97b89159d04639c780dd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091706622349130","idStr":"4091706622349130"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Orange","listText":"Orange","text":"Orange","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880216965","repostId":"1129020034","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2489,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839110444,"gmtCreate":1629126065588,"gmtModify":1631890499580,"author":{"id":"4091706622349130","authorId":"4091706622349130","name":"Stephenlimmh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36bc849c38db97b89159d04639c780dd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091706622349130","idStr":"4091706622349130"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839110444","repostId":"1137961734","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137961734","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1629122094,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1137961734?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-16 21:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple shares reached record high at $150.59 in early trading<blockquote>苹果股价早盘创下150.59美元的历史新高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137961734","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(Aug 16)&nbsp;Apple shares reached record high at $150.59 in early trading.","content":"<p>(Aug 16)&nbsp;Apple shares reached record high at $150.59 in early trading.</p><p><blockquote>（8月16日）苹果股价早盘创下150.59美元的历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2b9a9a385ae4e2c77588a61ab15011b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1868\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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