Ethan Ooi的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Ethan Ooi

Ethan Ooi

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0勋章

2022-05-19

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@思辨财经:京东为何赚钱难？

2022-02-18

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@小虎活动:【老虎财报季】分享财报点评，赢苹果股票！

2022-02-03

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@小虎活动:【新春大放送】小虎幸运转盘，晒晒你的幸运股！

2022-01-27

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@价值投资为王:半导体泡沫开始破裂！

2022-01-24

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@老特资本:如何正确应对美股持续下跌？

2022-01-24

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@阿尔法工场:$Benchmark Electronics Inc(BHE)$ 近日，巴菲特旗下的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司（BHE）计划斥资39亿美元，约合人民币247亿元，建设风力、太阳能发电项目。华尔街分析人士称，如此之巨额的投资，或将使该项目成为美国最大的单一风电项目。从投资路径来看，新能源领域一直是股神的心头好，巴菲特通过BHE持续投资可再生能源领域。目前，BHE已经成为了美国最大的新能源资产所有者之一，截至2020年底的投资额为340亿美元，而其中风电资产占据了大部分。作为股神，巴菲特的动作吸引着全世界的目光。而受巴菲特看好的领域，通常被市场理解为具备长期投资价值的标的。此番巴菲特重金下注风电、光伏领域，预示着清洁能源依然是未来的大趋势。这或许能给持续调整的A股风电、光伏赛道带来一些积极信号。

2022-01-23

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@期权小班长:大回调该做什么，大跌股票是否可以抄底，以及一个机会

2022-01-21

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@节点财经:扩产能、强机制、拓赛道！2022海尔智家要谋划什么？

2022-01-20

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@价值投资为王:美股陨落，港股崛起，2022全球成长股看香江！

2022-01-20

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半年评级“买入”最多！为什么机构如此看好海尔智家？

2022-01-20

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英伟达VS台积电，哪个是更好的半导体股票？

2022-01-20

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@4207f134:洪灏：港股显示深度配置价值，抓住市场拐点比选股重要

2022-01-20

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2021-12-29

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@小虎活动:【瓜分10000虎币】标普500周五收盘价大竞猜

2021-12-28

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抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-12-28

Nvdia & AMD 😍

@小虎AV: 【科技股投资买啥好？英伟达和AMD是领头羊】近期科技股迎来反弹，一位专业投资经理给出了他的建议 $英伟达(NVDA)$ $AMD(AMD)$

2021-12-28

Top ETF picks 2022

@阳光财经: 美股分析：2022年买哪些ETF？什么，你还没 ...

2021-12-28

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@儿子娃娃:纳斯达克期货做多

2021-12-28

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@小虎访谈:【虎友访谈】儿子娃娃：投资还是投机并不重要，赚钱才是王道！

2021-12-28

Learning Option

@谋定后动:【月入一万美元的期权实战策略】做买家还是卖家？（8月篇）

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it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/638179986","repostId":"638992180","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":638992180,"gmtCreate":1645016782259,"gmtModify":1645046023926,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36984908995200","authorIdStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"【老虎财报季】分享财报点评，赢苹果股票！","htmlText":"《老虎财报季》征文活动正在进行中，分享财报点评，有机会赢取苹果股票，免佣卡，还有虎友们最最最喜欢的限量盲盒手办。这周我们收到了很多很多虎友撰写的财报前瞻和解读，看着大家分享的财报交易心得，小虎真的收获颇多。小虎君从中选出了10篇优质的内容，下面就让我们一起欣赏一下吧： <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/630503519\" target=\"_blank\">启程教你如何阅读美股财报-操作篇 </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3493935227624916\">@启程资本</a> 美股公司年报该怎么研究，很多网友觉得很难，其实是有一个认知或操作鸿沟，跨越了是很简单的。那么“F-1”、“20-F”、“424(b)4”等黑话到底是什么意思？美股年报在哪查看？如何找到某家公司财报？如何筛选出所有年份的年报？如何把年报翻译成中文？年报都关注哪些重点？ <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/630139912\" target=\"_blank\">【视频】对财报季手足无措？记住这些窍门，0财务知识的你也能有所收获 </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3545995761422355\">@不二说价值</a> Q4财报季拉开序幕，财报对于个股及大盘的影响较大，一个亮眼的财报可以让跌跌不休的股票暴涨30%，甚至50%，学习财报知识对于美股投资者来说是重要的一课，我希望通过这期视频0基础投资者投资者通过财报掌握小技巧，小窍门发掘投资线索，以及规避风险... <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/639596359\" target=\"_blank\">跟着芝士虎老师学看财报 - 苹果</a>","listText":"《老虎财报季》征文活动正在进行中，分享财报点评，有机会赢取苹果股票，免佣卡，还有虎友们最最最喜欢的限量盲盒手办。这周我们收到了很多很多虎友撰写的财报前瞻和解读，看着大家分享的财报交易心得，小虎真的收获颇多。小虎君从中选出了10篇优质的内容，下面就让我们一起欣赏一下吧： <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/630503519\" target=\"_blank\">启程教你如何阅读美股财报-操作篇 </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3493935227624916\">@启程资本</a> 美股公司年报该怎么研究，很多网友觉得很难，其实是有一个认知或操作鸿沟，跨越了是很简单的。那么“F-1”、“20-F”、“424(b)4”等黑话到底是什么意思？美股年报在哪查看？如何找到某家公司财报？如何筛选出所有年份的年报？如何把年报翻译成中文？年报都关注哪些重点？ <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/630139912\" target=\"_blank\">【视频】对财报季手足无措？记住这些窍门，0财务知识的你也能有所收获 </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3545995761422355\">@不二说价值</a> Q4财报季拉开序幕，财报对于个股及大盘的影响较大，一个亮眼的财报可以让跌跌不休的股票暴涨30%，甚至50%，学习财报知识对于美股投资者来说是重要的一课，我希望通过这期视频0基础投资者投资者通过财报掌握小技巧，小窍门发掘投资线索，以及规避风险... <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/639596359\" target=\"_blank\">跟着芝士虎老师学看财报 - 苹果</a>","text":"《老虎财报季》征文活动正在进行中，分享财报点评，有机会赢取苹果股票，免佣卡，还有虎友们最最最喜欢的限量盲盒手办。这周我们收到了很多很多虎友撰写的财报前瞻和解读，看着大家分享的财报交易心得，小虎真的收获颇多。小虎君从中选出了10篇优质的内容，下面就让我们一起欣赏一下吧： 启程教你如何阅读美股财报-操作篇 @启程资本 美股公司年报该怎么研究，很多网友觉得很难，其实是有一个认知或操作鸿沟，跨越了是很简单的。那么“F-1”、“20-F”、“424(b)4”等黑话到底是什么意思？美股年报在哪查看？如何找到某家公司财报？如何筛选出所有年份的年报？如何把年报翻译成中文？年报都关注哪些重点？ 【视频】对财报季手足无措？记住这些窍门，0财务知识的你也能有所收获 @不二说价值 Q4财报季拉开序幕，财报对于个股及大盘的影响较大，一个亮眼的财报可以让跌跌不休的股票暴涨30%，甚至50%，学习财报知识对于美股投资者来说是重要的一课，我希望通过这期视频0基础投资者投资者通过财报掌握小技巧，小窍门发掘投资线索，以及规避风险... 跟着芝士虎老师学看财报 - 苹果","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/040f5bee2bf182e86d37fca8ce0d968a","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e29d7a279f87c807ad734683100eda6","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af6279a8324d7fc47ef789afa7c1611","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/638992180","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1234,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":633112022,"gmtCreate":1643852749011,"gmtModify":1643852749099,"author":{"id":"4099529441829710","authorId":"4099529441829710","name":"Ethan Ooi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4582faaea3eeb3a8816269a8ac4f567b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099529441829710","authorIdStr":"4099529441829710"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633112022","repostId":"633962731","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":633962731,"gmtCreate":1643686156404,"gmtModify":1713510258111,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36984908995200","authorIdStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"【新春大放送】小虎幸运转盘 ，晒晒你的幸运股！","htmlText":"虎友们，新年好！ 祝大家虎年大吉，虎利全开！新的一年，面对着市场众多的股票，你将如何选择？一起来玩小游戏，看看你2022年的幸运股票是哪一只吗？截图抽出你的幸运股票，赢无限虎币！ 用手机截屏小虎转盘，把屏幕截图发送到本文的评论区，即视为完成参与！【奖励规则】 1、每截出一只股票，并发送评论区，即可获得30虎币&nbsp; 2、截全12只股票，并发送评论区，可获得360虎币&nbsp; 3、转发并在评论区<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3517110361358321\">@你的好友</a>，若他们截出了N个幸运股票，你可以额外获得N*10个虎币奖励（不设上限）&nbsp; 【活动时间】 现在 ~ 2月6日 【活动说明】 1、对于相同的股票截图， 每个小虎只奖励1次&nbsp; 2、复制粘贴他人的股票截图，视为无效&nbsp; 3、虎币将于活动结束后5个工作日内发放4、本次活动的最终解释权归老虎社区所有 截图晒出你2022年的幸运股票吧！别忘了让你的朋友们一起参与哦！祝大家虎年投资顺利！<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>","listText":"虎友们，新年好！ 祝大家虎年大吉，虎利全开！新的一年，面对着市场众多的股票，你将如何选择？一起来玩小游戏，看看你2022年的幸运股票是哪一只吗？截图抽出你的幸运股票，赢无限虎币！ 用手机截屏小虎转盘，把屏幕截图发送到本文的评论区，即视为完成参与！【奖励规则】 1、每截出一只股票，并发送评论区，即可获得30虎币&nbsp; 2、截全12只股票，并发送评论区，可获得360虎币&nbsp; 3、转发并在评论区<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3517110361358321\">@你的好友</a>，若他们截出了N个幸运股票，你可以额外获得N*10个虎币奖励（不设上限）&nbsp; 【活动时间】 现在 ~ 2月6日 【活动说明】 1、对于相同的股票截图， 每个小虎只奖励1次&nbsp; 2、复制粘贴他人的股票截图，视为无效&nbsp; 3、虎币将于活动结束后5个工作日内发放4、本次活动的最终解释权归老虎社区所有 截图晒出你2022年的幸运股票吧！别忘了让你的朋友们一起参与哦！祝大家虎年投资顺利！<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>","text":"虎友们，新年好！ 祝大家虎年大吉，虎利全开！新的一年，面对着市场众多的股票，你将如何选择？一起来玩小游戏，看看你2022年的幸运股票是哪一只吗？截图抽出你的幸运股票，赢无限虎币！ 用手机截屏小虎转盘，把屏幕截图发送到本文的评论区，即视为完成参与！【奖励规则】 1、每截出一只股票，并发送评论区，即可获得30虎币 2、截全12只股票，并发送评论区，可获得360虎币 3、转发并在评论区@你的好友，若他们截出了N个幸运股票，你可以额外获得N*10个虎币奖励（不设上限） 【活动时间】 现在 ~ 2月6日 【活动说明】 1、对于相同的股票截图， 每个小虎只奖励1次 2、复制粘贴他人的股票截图，视为无效 3、虎币将于活动结束后5个工作日内发放4、本次活动的最终解释权归老虎社区所有 截图晒出你2022年的幸运股票吧！别忘了让你的朋友们一起参与哦！祝大家虎年投资顺利！$老虎证券(TIGR)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddc5c53fb32b3fd13f1e9b128eae1121","width":"1200","height":"1200"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633962731","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1472,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":639824729,"gmtCreate":1643252983312,"gmtModify":1643252983389,"author":{"id":"4099529441829710","authorId":"4099529441829710","name":"Ethan Ooi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4582faaea3eeb3a8816269a8ac4f567b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099529441829710","authorIdStr":"4099529441829710"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/639824729","repostId":"639101842","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":639101842,"gmtCreate":1643186934071,"gmtModify":1643243836619,"author":{"id":"21347731130544","authorId":"21347731130544","name":"价值投资为王","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89ffffc59ff9ac9cb9cb74f596418d44","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"21347731130544","authorIdStr":"21347731130544"},"themes":[],"title":"半导体泡沫开始破裂！","htmlText":"昨夜，纳斯达克指数仍旧惊魂不定，大跌2.28%。跌幅最为明显的是半导体概念股，其中，阿斯麦大跌5.65%，英伟达大跌4.48%，AMD大跌4.6%，连半导体指数ETF（代码：SMH）都下跌了3.96%。这场美股崩盘行情，半导体算的上是震中了。消息面上，传言英伟达将放弃收购ARM，而软银方面正在加紧准备ARM公开募股，以代替被英伟达收购的选择。自2020年9月英伟达宣布斥资400亿美元收购全球移动CPU主导者ARM时，便引发全球震动，如果收购完成，将成为史上最大的芯片并购案！而经过长达一年多的博弈，半导体行业多数巨头对这笔交易表达反对意见，同时，各国审查进展不顺，这或许是英伟达不得不放弃收购ARM的原因。虽然世纪并购案无法达成，但实际上，2021年英伟达股价大涨125%的主要原因来自业绩和史无前例的美联储大放水。根据彭博分析师一致预测，英伟达2022财年营收规模约267亿美元，同比大增60%，是最近十年来最快的增速：业绩大爆发的背景与疫情时代电子产品需求暴增相关，而历史上，电子产品需求屡有波动，从英伟达历年营收增速上也可以看出剧烈波动的特征。根据彭博分析师对2023财年营收规模的预测，英伟达今年的营收增速或将放缓至19%。复盘英伟达历年股价走势，不难发现，当营收高速增长时，股价大涨，反过来，增速放低或将对股价形成巨大压力。目前，无论是按照半导体行业传统的PB估值，抑或采用市盈率，英伟达的估值都史无前例的高：因此，管理层对2023财年营收增速的指引，将成为未来股价运行方向的根据，而最新的财报公布日在2月16日，在此之前，美联储加息将对高估值的个股形成巨大压力。除英伟达之外，其他半导体概念股同样不容乐观。已经公布四季度财报的台积电和阿斯麦，两家公司都给出了超预期的2022年收入增速指引，但无奈估值高企，超预期财报并未在这场美股大跌中幸存。根据管理层的指引，台积电2022年收入增速","listText":"昨夜，纳斯达克指数仍旧惊魂不定，大跌2.28%。跌幅最为明显的是半导体概念股，其中，阿斯麦大跌5.65%，英伟达大跌4.48%，AMD大跌4.6%，连半导体指数ETF（代码：SMH）都下跌了3.96%。这场美股崩盘行情，半导体算的上是震中了。消息面上，传言英伟达将放弃收购ARM，而软银方面正在加紧准备ARM公开募股，以代替被英伟达收购的选择。自2020年9月英伟达宣布斥资400亿美元收购全球移动CPU主导者ARM时，便引发全球震动，如果收购完成，将成为史上最大的芯片并购案！而经过长达一年多的博弈，半导体行业多数巨头对这笔交易表达反对意见，同时，各国审查进展不顺，这或许是英伟达不得不放弃收购ARM的原因。虽然世纪并购案无法达成，但实际上，2021年英伟达股价大涨125%的主要原因来自业绩和史无前例的美联储大放水。根据彭博分析师一致预测，英伟达2022财年营收规模约267亿美元，同比大增60%，是最近十年来最快的增速：业绩大爆发的背景与疫情时代电子产品需求暴增相关，而历史上，电子产品需求屡有波动，从英伟达历年营收增速上也可以看出剧烈波动的特征。根据彭博分析师对2023财年营收规模的预测，英伟达今年的营收增速或将放缓至19%。复盘英伟达历年股价走势，不难发现，当营收高速增长时，股价大涨，反过来，增速放低或将对股价形成巨大压力。目前，无论是按照半导体行业传统的PB估值，抑或采用市盈率，英伟达的估值都史无前例的高：因此，管理层对2023财年营收增速的指引，将成为未来股价运行方向的根据，而最新的财报公布日在2月16日，在此之前，美联储加息将对高估值的个股形成巨大压力。除英伟达之外，其他半导体概念股同样不容乐观。已经公布四季度财报的台积电和阿斯麦，两家公司都给出了超预期的2022年收入增速指引，但无奈估值高企，超预期财报并未在这场美股大跌中幸存。根据管理层的指引，台积电2022年收入增速","text":"昨夜，纳斯达克指数仍旧惊魂不定，大跌2.28%。跌幅最为明显的是半导体概念股，其中，阿斯麦大跌5.65%，英伟达大跌4.48%，AMD大跌4.6%，连半导体指数ETF（代码：SMH）都下跌了3.96%。这场美股崩盘行情，半导体算的上是震中了。消息面上，传言英伟达将放弃收购ARM，而软银方面正在加紧准备ARM公开募股，以代替被英伟达收购的选择。自2020年9月英伟达宣布斥资400亿美元收购全球移动CPU主导者ARM时，便引发全球震动，如果收购完成，将成为史上最大的芯片并购案！而经过长达一年多的博弈，半导体行业多数巨头对这笔交易表达反对意见，同时，各国审查进展不顺，这或许是英伟达不得不放弃收购ARM的原因。虽然世纪并购案无法达成，但实际上，2021年英伟达股价大涨125%的主要原因来自业绩和史无前例的美联储大放水。根据彭博分析师一致预测，英伟达2022财年营收规模约267亿美元，同比大增60%，是最近十年来最快的增速：业绩大爆发的背景与疫情时代电子产品需求暴增相关，而历史上，电子产品需求屡有波动，从英伟达历年营收增速上也可以看出剧烈波动的特征。根据彭博分析师对2023财年营收规模的预测，英伟达今年的营收增速或将放缓至19%。复盘英伟达历年股价走势，不难发现，当营收高速增长时，股价大涨，反过来，增速放低或将对股价形成巨大压力。目前，无论是按照半导体行业传统的PB估值，抑或采用市盈率，英伟达的估值都史无前例的高：因此，管理层对2023财年营收增速的指引，将成为未来股价运行方向的根据，而最新的财报公布日在2月16日，在此之前，美联储加息将对高估值的个股形成巨大压力。除英伟达之外，其他半导体概念股同样不容乐观。已经公布四季度财报的台积电和阿斯麦，两家公司都给出了超预期的2022年收入增速指引，但无奈估值高企，超预期财报并未在这场美股大跌中幸存。根据管理层的指引，台积电2022年收入增速","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/228f5448007a59cdcc6670a95d1a1c8b","width":"632","height":"328"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9eb7069599895777c61855bff1e609e5","width":"632","height":"369"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b264a51660487250081389e5f9c077e1","width":"632","height":"367"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/639101842","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1332,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":630719597,"gmtCreate":1643038779635,"gmtModify":1643038779717,"author":{"id":"4099529441829710","authorId":"4099529441829710","name":"Ethan Ooi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4582faaea3eeb3a8816269a8ac4f567b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099529441829710","authorIdStr":"4099529441829710"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630719597","repostId":"630671321","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":630671321,"gmtCreate":1642851826825,"gmtModify":1744960783891,"author":{"id":"3515677085772011","authorId":"3515677085772011","name":"老特资本","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e94c23bbbf9eaa7982385d5e639a294","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3515677085772011","authorIdStr":"3515677085772011"},"themes":[],"title":"如何正确应对美股持续下跌？","htmlText":"最近老特收到的最多的问题就是“美股又又又跌了怎么办？”。[喷血]&nbsp;直接给出方案，因为每个人账户资金、风险偏好、个人情况都不同，无法给出统一的解决方案，老特这里针对不同人群给出不同的三个方案：1. 针对Risk Adverse风险厌恶人群：可以空仓了！只要不投资不买股票，就不会有风险！在这波动如此大的市场，买点美元债拿点零花钱也不错，待过段时间股市稳定了再重新进来也不会太差。[流泪]&nbsp;2. 针对Risk Neutral 风险中立人群：如果之前是满仓的可以减至半仓，待市场开始反弹或者VIX恐慌指数开始稳步下跌了就可以开始慢慢建仓，留的半仓也是为了万一反弹不至于踏空，这个政策比较适合风险中立的人群。[真香]&nbsp;3. 针对Risk Lover 风险喜好人群：BUY NOW!!! 因为不管怎么说，美股纵横60年都是持续上涨的，一直屡创新高，所以风险喜好者正是抓住了这点，在每逢大跌的时候就是他们买买买的时候，当再次创新高之时便是他们收获之时。[财迷]&nbsp;下面说说老特的观点：&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;美国从20年3月开始放了这么多水，总要有个地方承接吧，即便是加息也不至于加到让企业喘不过气来，再说了，美国不可以让股市无限制地跌下去，毕竟美国人的养老保险401-K还跟美股大蓝筹挂钩呢，基本等于全民被动炒股的状态，如果美股出现大幅度回调又不及时出政策修正的话，拜登政府可能要下台的，这压力谁都扛不住。[笑哭]&nbsp;本轮回调下跌极有可能是因为加息迫在眉睫+估值修复的一个过程，很多公司都被借刀杀股了，比如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$</a>其","listText":"最近老特收到的最多的问题就是“美股又又又跌了怎么办？”。[喷血]&nbsp;直接给出方案，因为每个人账户资金、风险偏好、个人情况都不同，无法给出统一的解决方案，老特这里针对不同人群给出不同的三个方案：1. 针对Risk Adverse风险厌恶人群：可以空仓了！只要不投资不买股票，就不会有风险！在这波动如此大的市场，买点美元债拿点零花钱也不错，待过段时间股市稳定了再重新进来也不会太差。[流泪]&nbsp;2. 针对Risk Neutral 风险中立人群：如果之前是满仓的可以减至半仓，待市场开始反弹或者VIX恐慌指数开始稳步下跌了就可以开始慢慢建仓，留的半仓也是为了万一反弹不至于踏空，这个政策比较适合风险中立的人群。[真香]&nbsp;3. 针对Risk Lover 风险喜好人群：BUY NOW!!! 因为不管怎么说，美股纵横60年都是持续上涨的，一直屡创新高，所以风险喜好者正是抓住了这点，在每逢大跌的时候就是他们买买买的时候，当再次创新高之时便是他们收获之时。[财迷]&nbsp;下面说说老特的观点：&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;美国从20年3月开始放了这么多水，总要有个地方承接吧，即便是加息也不至于加到让企业喘不过气来，再说了，美国不可以让股市无限制地跌下去，毕竟美国人的养老保险401-K还跟美股大蓝筹挂钩呢，基本等于全民被动炒股的状态，如果美股出现大幅度回调又不及时出政策修正的话，拜登政府可能要下台的，这压力谁都扛不住。[笑哭]&nbsp;本轮回调下跌极有可能是因为加息迫在眉睫+估值修复的一个过程，很多公司都被借刀杀股了，比如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$</a>其","text":"最近老特收到的最多的问题就是“美股又又又跌了怎么办？”。[喷血] 直接给出方案，因为每个人账户资金、风险偏好、个人情况都不同，无法给出统一的解决方案，老特这里针对不同人群给出不同的三个方案：1. 针对Risk Adverse风险厌恶人群：可以空仓了！只要不投资不买股票，就不会有风险！在这波动如此大的市场，买点美元债拿点零花钱也不错，待过段时间股市稳定了再重新进来也不会太差。[流泪] 2. 针对Risk Neutral 风险中立人群：如果之前是满仓的可以减至半仓，待市场开始反弹或者VIX恐慌指数开始稳步下跌了就可以开始慢慢建仓，留的半仓也是为了万一反弹不至于踏空，这个政策比较适合风险中立的人群。[真香] 3. 针对Risk Lover 风险喜好人群：BUY NOW!!! 因为不管怎么说，美股纵横60年都是持续上涨的，一直屡创新高，所以风险喜好者正是抓住了这点，在每逢大跌的时候就是他们买买买的时候，当再次创新高之时便是他们收获之时。[财迷] 下面说说老特的观点： 美国从20年3月开始放了这么多水，总要有个地方承接吧，即便是加息也不至于加到让企业喘不过气来，再说了，美国不可以让股市无限制地跌下去，毕竟美国人的养老保险401-K还跟美股大蓝筹挂钩呢，基本等于全民被动炒股的状态，如果美股出现大幅度回调又不及时出政策修正的话，拜登政府可能要下台的，这压力谁都扛不住。[笑哭] 本轮回调下跌极有可能是因为加息迫在眉睫+估值修复的一个过程，很多公司都被借刀杀股了，比如$Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$和$Sea Ltd(SE)$其","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ec917e79ce0b31022ccee1820a07c67","width":"1440","height":"1080"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f30465f4d95026b335d4f4fb2403ada","width":"702","height":"800"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d901b6a57d791b9010e1b2396246ab4b","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630671321","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1625,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":630732840,"gmtCreate":1643037725842,"gmtModify":1643037725930,"author":{"id":"4099529441829710","authorId":"4099529441829710","name":"Ethan Ooi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4582faaea3eeb3a8816269a8ac4f567b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099529441829710","authorIdStr":"4099529441829710"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630732840","repostId":"630839988","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":630839988,"gmtCreate":1642766508539,"gmtModify":1642822421857,"author":{"id":"3502176745308642","authorId":"3502176745308642","name":"阿尔法工场","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c1e2784f547ee3820545b047bf31adf","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3502176745308642","authorIdStr":"3502176745308642"},"themes":[],"title":"247亿！“股神”巴菲特重金下注新能源","htmlText":"\n \n \n  <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BHE\">$Benchmark Electronics Inc(BHE)$</a>&nbsp;近日，巴菲特旗下的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司（BHE）计划斥资39亿美元，约合人民币247亿元，建设风力、太阳能发电项目。华尔街分析人士称，如此之巨额的投资，或将使该项目成为美国最大的单一风电项目。从投资路径来看，新能源领域一直是股神的心头好，巴菲特通过BHE持续投资可再生能源领域。目前，BHE已经成为了美国最大的新能源资产所有者之一，截至2020年底的投资额为340亿美元，而其中风电资产占据了大部分。作为股神，巴菲特的动作吸引着全世界的目光。而受巴菲特看好的领域，通常被市场理解为具备长期投资价值的标的。此番巴菲特重金下注风电、光伏领域，预示着清洁能源依然是未来的大趋势。这或许能给持续调整的A股风电、光伏赛道带来一些积极信号。\n \n","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BHE\">$Benchmark Electronics Inc(BHE)$</a>&nbsp;近日，巴菲特旗下的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司（BHE）计划斥资39亿美元，约合人民币247亿元，建设风力、太阳能发电项目。华尔街分析人士称，如此之巨额的投资，或将使该项目成为美国最大的单一风电项目。从投资路径来看，新能源领域一直是股神的心头好，巴菲特通过BHE持续投资可再生能源领域。目前，BHE已经成为了美国最大的新能源资产所有者之一，截至2020年底的投资额为340亿美元，而其中风电资产占据了大部分。作为股神，巴菲特的动作吸引着全世界的目光。而受巴菲特看好的领域，通常被市场理解为具备长期投资价值的标的。此番巴菲特重金下注风电、光伏领域，预示着清洁能源依然是未来的大趋势。这或许能给持续调整的A股风电、光伏赛道带来一些积极信号。","text":"$Benchmark Electronics Inc(BHE)$ 近日，巴菲特旗下的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司（BHE）计划斥资39亿美元，约合人民币247亿元，建设风力、太阳能发电项目。华尔街分析人士称，如此之巨额的投资，或将使该项目成为美国最大的单一风电项目。从投资路径来看，新能源领域一直是股神的心头好，巴菲特通过BHE持续投资可再生能源领域。目前，BHE已经成为了美国最大的新能源资产所有者之一，截至2020年底的投资额为340亿美元，而其中风电资产占据了大部分。作为股神，巴菲特的动作吸引着全世界的目光。而受巴菲特看好的领域，通常被市场理解为具备长期投资价值的标的。此番巴菲特重金下注风电、光伏领域，预示着清洁能源依然是未来的大趋势。这或许能给持续调整的A股风电、光伏赛道带来一些积极信号。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9e2cb6062b37cad2b9a46fd27340375","width":"0","height":"0"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630839988","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"0f6ec1728252486e8883b57d71fae6c8","tweetId":"630839988","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/73ba5544vodgzp1254107296/8f9950bc387702294914087565/Rz9hAI5eCHwA.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9e2cb6062b37cad2b9a46fd27340375"},"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1511,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":630269695,"gmtCreate":1642911414458,"gmtModify":1642911458290,"author":{"id":"4099529441829710","authorId":"4099529441829710","name":"Ethan Ooi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4582faaea3eeb3a8816269a8ac4f567b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099529441829710","authorIdStr":"4099529441829710"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630269695","repostId":"630885632","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":630885632,"gmtCreate":1642775413505,"gmtModify":1642819467439,"author":{"id":"3527667590215376","authorId":"3527667590215376","name":"期权小班长","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e785bea87af8baf08d2b24111b78c16a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667590215376","authorIdStr":"3527667590215376"},"themes":[],"title":"大回调该做什么，大跌股票是否可以抄底，以及一个机会","htmlText":"今天早上醒过来看了一下盘后，发现信息量太大了。美股市场周四高开低走，盘中因反垄断立法引发大跌，国债终于不用为大跌背锅了。 参议院司法委员会以16票对6票的投票结果，批准了针对苹果、Meta、亚马逊、谷歌等大型科技公司的反垄断立法，给了本就摇摇欲坠的大盘致命一击。盘后又爆出奈飞财报噩耗，因22Q1全球付费用户增长预期不及市场预期，250万远远低于去年的400万增长，也远远低于市场预期650万。 恐慌叠加，大家都很疑惑，这里究竟是谁不行了，美国老百姓不行了，还是你奈飞公司不行了，还是所有公司都不行了呢？所以调整继续加深，股指继续破位。 现在该做什么 不要抄底，注意止损。 第一个不要抄底针对普通上班族，也就是没什么时间看盘的人，建议不要过早抄底。现在大盘还没有见底，股票回调是一个很痛苦的过程，不要看见跌了20%就想抄底了，因为股票可能还会继续跌20%。如果没有合适的策略建议现金观望就可以了。 第二个不要抄底是建议sell&nbsp;put尽量深度，尽量不要抄底。如果临近接盘建议买put兜底，或者roll远期。远期可以考虑最远roll到3个月，最迟3个月之后也会反弹了。如果接盘了建议用领口策略，sell&nbsp;call+正股+put做持股的止损策略。原因还是跟上面一样，探底过程会比较痛苦。 最后就是注意止损。如果你持有正股不喜欢割肉，那就参考上面的领口策略，其实领口就是帮你做止损判断的。 虽然不开仓，但说一个机会： 周五还是不开仓，把本周的交易梳理一下，该roll的roll了，该止损的止损。但奈飞大跌我觉得还是一个不错的机会，考虑盘中价格合适做一下。 奈飞这个不及预期很冤枉，650万新增预期真的很离谱，仿佛是老板设定了一个完全达不到的kpi，最后给你评级c。我有种预感本季度这类财报会很多。 奈飞大跌20%，按财报大跌的一贯表现，会横盘三个月直到下次财报，所以可以考虑做sell&amp;","listText":"今天早上醒过来看了一下盘后，发现信息量太大了。美股市场周四高开低走，盘中因反垄断立法引发大跌，国债终于不用为大跌背锅了。 参议院司法委员会以16票对6票的投票结果，批准了针对苹果、Meta、亚马逊、谷歌等大型科技公司的反垄断立法，给了本就摇摇欲坠的大盘致命一击。盘后又爆出奈飞财报噩耗，因22Q1全球付费用户增长预期不及市场预期，250万远远低于去年的400万增长，也远远低于市场预期650万。 恐慌叠加，大家都很疑惑，这里究竟是谁不行了，美国老百姓不行了，还是你奈飞公司不行了，还是所有公司都不行了呢？所以调整继续加深，股指继续破位。 现在该做什么 不要抄底，注意止损。 第一个不要抄底针对普通上班族，也就是没什么时间看盘的人，建议不要过早抄底。现在大盘还没有见底，股票回调是一个很痛苦的过程，不要看见跌了20%就想抄底了，因为股票可能还会继续跌20%。如果没有合适的策略建议现金观望就可以了。 第二个不要抄底是建议sell&nbsp;put尽量深度，尽量不要抄底。如果临近接盘建议买put兜底，或者roll远期。远期可以考虑最远roll到3个月，最迟3个月之后也会反弹了。如果接盘了建议用领口策略，sell&nbsp;call+正股+put做持股的止损策略。原因还是跟上面一样，探底过程会比较痛苦。 最后就是注意止损。如果你持有正股不喜欢割肉，那就参考上面的领口策略，其实领口就是帮你做止损判断的。 虽然不开仓，但说一个机会： 周五还是不开仓，把本周的交易梳理一下，该roll的roll了，该止损的止损。但奈飞大跌我觉得还是一个不错的机会，考虑盘中价格合适做一下。 奈飞这个不及预期很冤枉，650万新增预期真的很离谱，仿佛是老板设定了一个完全达不到的kpi，最后给你评级c。我有种预感本季度这类财报会很多。 奈飞大跌20%，按财报大跌的一贯表现，会横盘三个月直到下次财报，所以可以考虑做sell&amp;","text":"今天早上醒过来看了一下盘后，发现信息量太大了。美股市场周四高开低走，盘中因反垄断立法引发大跌，国债终于不用为大跌背锅了。 参议院司法委员会以16票对6票的投票结果，批准了针对苹果、Meta、亚马逊、谷歌等大型科技公司的反垄断立法，给了本就摇摇欲坠的大盘致命一击。盘后又爆出奈飞财报噩耗，因22Q1全球付费用户增长预期不及市场预期，250万远远低于去年的400万增长，也远远低于市场预期650万。 恐慌叠加，大家都很疑惑，这里究竟是谁不行了，美国老百姓不行了，还是你奈飞公司不行了，还是所有公司都不行了呢？所以调整继续加深，股指继续破位。 现在该做什么 不要抄底，注意止损。 第一个不要抄底针对普通上班族，也就是没什么时间看盘的人，建议不要过早抄底。现在大盘还没有见底，股票回调是一个很痛苦的过程，不要看见跌了20%就想抄底了，因为股票可能还会继续跌20%。如果没有合适的策略建议现金观望就可以了。 第二个不要抄底是建议sell put尽量深度，尽量不要抄底。如果临近接盘建议买put兜底，或者roll远期。远期可以考虑最远roll到3个月，最迟3个月之后也会反弹了。如果接盘了建议用领口策略，sell call+正股+put做持股的止损策略。原因还是跟上面一样，探底过程会比较痛苦。 最后就是注意止损。如果你持有正股不喜欢割肉，那就参考上面的领口策略，其实领口就是帮你做止损判断的。 虽然不开仓，但说一个机会： 周五还是不开仓，把本周的交易梳理一下，该roll的roll了，该止损的止损。但奈飞大跌我觉得还是一个不错的机会，考虑盘中价格合适做一下。 奈飞这个不及预期很冤枉，650万新增预期真的很离谱，仿佛是老板设定了一个完全达不到的kpi，最后给你评级c。我有种预感本季度这类财报会很多。 奈飞大跌20%，按财报大跌的一贯表现，会横盘三个月直到下次财报，所以可以考虑做sell&","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630885632","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1542,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":630807913,"gmtCreate":1642762112064,"gmtModify":1642762221898,"author":{"id":"4099529441829710","authorId":"4099529441829710","name":"Ethan Ooi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4582faaea3eeb3a8816269a8ac4f567b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099529441829710","authorIdStr":"4099529441829710"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630807913","repostId":"697727251","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":697727251,"gmtCreate":1642601970952,"gmtModify":1642602072759,"author":{"id":"3539674289973208","authorId":"3539674289973208","name":"节点财经","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bc4a2c77823eb34200081e30d39a4d3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3539674289973208","authorIdStr":"3539674289973208"},"themes":[],"title":"扩产能、强机制、拓赛道！2022海尔智家要谋划什么？","htmlText":"文 / 七公出品 / 节点财经刚刚过去的2021年，要说制造业艰难估计无人反对，但再艰难的日子，也总有逆势而上者，比如海尔智家。数据显示，2021前三季度，海尔智家营收、归母净利润分别增长10.07%、57.68%，利润增速创出行业最快；在二级市场，家居板块2021全年整体收跌，但海尔智家A股和H股年线均收红，尤其是H股，涨幅高达17.25%。不过，就像莎翁所言：过往一切，皆为序章。对资本市场来说，更重要的是思考未来。那么，2022年海尔智家业绩走势如何？我们试图透过产能、机制、赛道（产品结构）等维度，对其2022的业绩支撑和价值走向有一个大概的展望和把握。/ 01 /产能、市场齐释放海尔智家站在哪个位置？根植于当下，用未来的眼光看待2022年，大的方向上，随着产业链外部负面（原材料、海运费等）因素逐步消退以及疫苗接种普及、疫情防控常态化，从中国市场到全球市场，家电行业供需两端承压的局面都将得到大的改善。2022年，中国经济的大气象仍然是稳中有进，且受益于城镇化率进一步提高、共同富裕政策推进，以及近期楼市松动的迹象，消费重拾增长轨道甚至小小爆发一下应该都是大概率的事儿，全球市场大抵也如此。谨慎乐观而言，作为生活必需品的家电，将会迎来一个相对景气周期。此时，谁能持续释放产能，快速响应市场需求，谁就能抓住市场机遇。2021年，海尔智家在印度、欧洲新投产3个工厂，年产能超525万台，这些产能将在2022年进一步释放；2021年新奠基的3个工厂也将在2022年相继投产，预计投产后海外的2个工厂年产能将超200万台，国内的工厂年产值将超100亿元。图源：市场公开资料为什么海尔智家有这样的底气？说到底，30多年来积累的规模优势、品牌优势，长期对海外市场的布局等，让海尔智家站到了行业发展的中轴线上。世界权威调研机构欧睿国际数据显示，2021年海尔全球大型家用电器品牌零售量第一，第13次蝉","listText":"文 / 七公出品 / 节点财经刚刚过去的2021年，要说制造业艰难估计无人反对，但再艰难的日子，也总有逆势而上者，比如海尔智家。数据显示，2021前三季度，海尔智家营收、归母净利润分别增长10.07%、57.68%，利润增速创出行业最快；在二级市场，家居板块2021全年整体收跌，但海尔智家A股和H股年线均收红，尤其是H股，涨幅高达17.25%。不过，就像莎翁所言：过往一切，皆为序章。对资本市场来说，更重要的是思考未来。那么，2022年海尔智家业绩走势如何？我们试图透过产能、机制、赛道（产品结构）等维度，对其2022的业绩支撑和价值走向有一个大概的展望和把握。/ 01 /产能、市场齐释放海尔智家站在哪个位置？根植于当下，用未来的眼光看待2022年，大的方向上，随着产业链外部负面（原材料、海运费等）因素逐步消退以及疫苗接种普及、疫情防控常态化，从中国市场到全球市场，家电行业供需两端承压的局面都将得到大的改善。2022年，中国经济的大气象仍然是稳中有进，且受益于城镇化率进一步提高、共同富裕政策推进，以及近期楼市松动的迹象，消费重拾增长轨道甚至小小爆发一下应该都是大概率的事儿，全球市场大抵也如此。谨慎乐观而言，作为生活必需品的家电，将会迎来一个相对景气周期。此时，谁能持续释放产能，快速响应市场需求，谁就能抓住市场机遇。2021年，海尔智家在印度、欧洲新投产3个工厂，年产能超525万台，这些产能将在2022年进一步释放；2021年新奠基的3个工厂也将在2022年相继投产，预计投产后海外的2个工厂年产能将超200万台，国内的工厂年产值将超100亿元。图源：市场公开资料为什么海尔智家有这样的底气？说到底，30多年来积累的规模优势、品牌优势，长期对海外市场的布局等，让海尔智家站到了行业发展的中轴线上。世界权威调研机构欧睿国际数据显示，2021年海尔全球大型家用电器品牌零售量第一，第13次蝉","text":"文 / 七公出品 / 节点财经刚刚过去的2021年，要说制造业艰难估计无人反对，但再艰难的日子，也总有逆势而上者，比如海尔智家。数据显示，2021前三季度，海尔智家营收、归母净利润分别增长10.07%、57.68%，利润增速创出行业最快；在二级市场，家居板块2021全年整体收跌，但海尔智家A股和H股年线均收红，尤其是H股，涨幅高达17.25%。不过，就像莎翁所言：过往一切，皆为序章。对资本市场来说，更重要的是思考未来。那么，2022年海尔智家业绩走势如何？我们试图透过产能、机制、赛道（产品结构）等维度，对其2022的业绩支撑和价值走向有一个大概的展望和把握。/ 01 /产能、市场齐释放海尔智家站在哪个位置？根植于当下，用未来的眼光看待2022年，大的方向上，随着产业链外部负面（原材料、海运费等）因素逐步消退以及疫苗接种普及、疫情防控常态化，从中国市场到全球市场，家电行业供需两端承压的局面都将得到大的改善。2022年，中国经济的大气象仍然是稳中有进，且受益于城镇化率进一步提高、共同富裕政策推进，以及近期楼市松动的迹象，消费重拾增长轨道甚至小小爆发一下应该都是大概率的事儿，全球市场大抵也如此。谨慎乐观而言，作为生活必需品的家电，将会迎来一个相对景气周期。此时，谁能持续释放产能，快速响应市场需求，谁就能抓住市场机遇。2021年，海尔智家在印度、欧洲新投产3个工厂，年产能超525万台，这些产能将在2022年进一步释放；2021年新奠基的3个工厂也将在2022年相继投产，预计投产后海外的2个工厂年产能将超200万台，国内的工厂年产值将超100亿元。图源：市场公开资料为什么海尔智家有这样的底气？说到底，30多年来积累的规模优势、品牌优势，长期对海外市场的布局等，让海尔智家站到了行业发展的中轴线上。世界权威调研机构欧睿国际数据显示，2021年海尔全球大型家用电器品牌零售量第一，第13次蝉","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d2cd84a19111a0a5c2aa0e7d11df21e"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a0f35ef4d955a69f5d3b8daf7a711e2"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/781405d5cf91f2b7a08b508f4f88269f"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/697727251","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2400,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":630940884,"gmtCreate":1642677388155,"gmtModify":1642677388235,"author":{"id":"4099529441829710","authorId":"4099529441829710","name":"Ethan 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it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630940884","repostId":"630987995","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":630987995,"gmtCreate":1642667067676,"gmtModify":1744960783401,"author":{"id":"21347731130544","authorId":"21347731130544","name":"价值投资为王","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89ffffc59ff9ac9cb9cb74f596418d44","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"21347731130544","authorIdStr":"21347731130544"},"themes":[],"title":"美股陨落，港股崛起，2022全球成长股看香江！","htmlText":"2021年，港股恒生指数下跌14%，垫底全球所有股指，丢煞国人脸面，尤其是2021年初，内资南下，曾一度叫嚣“跨过香江去，争夺定价权”。定价权没拿到，悉数给外资高位接了盘。这股憋屈，有望在2022年翻身农奴把歌唱了！新年伊始，美股科技成长股屡屡大跌，苹果年内下跌6%、英伟达下跌15%、阿斯麦下跌12%、AMD下跌11%...这一月份尚未过去，年内跌幅已高达15%，这让习惯了美股慢牛的投资者如何忍受？风水轮流转，今年到港股，不同于美股成长股的萎靡不振，港股互联网巨头开启轰轰烈烈的反弹，其中，腾讯控股年内上涨3%、阿里巴巴上涨8%、美团5%、京东集团10%、快手25%...即使2021年糟糕透顶的恒生指数，2022年也涨了6%！而纳斯达克指数则下跌8%！港美为何走出截然不同的走势？2020年，疫情突袭全球，对消费和制造等传统行业予以重创，人民居家工作和学习时间拉长，互联网和科技行业恰好作为受益者，不仅盈利能力不受疫情影响，反而实现大增。因此，港股和美股的互联网巨头及科技股基本同步大涨。而时间转到2021年，我国开展互联网整顿，打击教培，一系列政策铁拳袭来，互联网巨头应声倒下，加上大跌之前估值高企，一轮戴维斯双杀就这样笼罩了港股市场整整一年。时光跨入2022年，互联网行业的反垄断仍在进行中，但相关概念股却不再创新低，而是走上了反弹的步伐，为何？只因股价大跌，提前释放了估值风险，而一系列政策打击后，多数互联网巨头的估值进入低估状态。当估值变得便宜的时候，资金便会蜂拥而至，所谓的利空消息反而成了低价吸筹的好机会。从恒生指数历年估值来看，2021年底对应的估值仅有10PE，处于历史低估区域：虽然最近10年，恒生指数曾在2016年时估值低到8PE，然而时过境迁，当下恒生指数的构成已经由金融能源转变为信息技术和可选消费，这两个行业的估值和前景可比金融能源好很多。从几个代表性个股来看，如苹果","listText":"2021年，港股恒生指数下跌14%，垫底全球所有股指，丢煞国人脸面，尤其是2021年初，内资南下，曾一度叫嚣“跨过香江去，争夺定价权”。定价权没拿到，悉数给外资高位接了盘。这股憋屈，有望在2022年翻身农奴把歌唱了！新年伊始，美股科技成长股屡屡大跌，苹果年内下跌6%、英伟达下跌15%、阿斯麦下跌12%、AMD下跌11%...这一月份尚未过去，年内跌幅已高达15%，这让习惯了美股慢牛的投资者如何忍受？风水轮流转，今年到港股，不同于美股成长股的萎靡不振，港股互联网巨头开启轰轰烈烈的反弹，其中，腾讯控股年内上涨3%、阿里巴巴上涨8%、美团5%、京东集团10%、快手25%...即使2021年糟糕透顶的恒生指数，2022年也涨了6%！而纳斯达克指数则下跌8%！港美为何走出截然不同的走势？2020年，疫情突袭全球，对消费和制造等传统行业予以重创，人民居家工作和学习时间拉长，互联网和科技行业恰好作为受益者，不仅盈利能力不受疫情影响，反而实现大增。因此，港股和美股的互联网巨头及科技股基本同步大涨。而时间转到2021年，我国开展互联网整顿，打击教培，一系列政策铁拳袭来，互联网巨头应声倒下，加上大跌之前估值高企，一轮戴维斯双杀就这样笼罩了港股市场整整一年。时光跨入2022年，互联网行业的反垄断仍在进行中，但相关概念股却不再创新低，而是走上了反弹的步伐，为何？只因股价大跌，提前释放了估值风险，而一系列政策打击后，多数互联网巨头的估值进入低估状态。当估值变得便宜的时候，资金便会蜂拥而至，所谓的利空消息反而成了低价吸筹的好机会。从恒生指数历年估值来看，2021年底对应的估值仅有10PE，处于历史低估区域：虽然最近10年，恒生指数曾在2016年时估值低到8PE，然而时过境迁，当下恒生指数的构成已经由金融能源转变为信息技术和可选消费，这两个行业的估值和前景可比金融能源好很多。从几个代表性个股来看，如苹果","text":"2021年，港股恒生指数下跌14%，垫底全球所有股指，丢煞国人脸面，尤其是2021年初，内资南下，曾一度叫嚣“跨过香江去，争夺定价权”。定价权没拿到，悉数给外资高位接了盘。这股憋屈，有望在2022年翻身农奴把歌唱了！新年伊始，美股科技成长股屡屡大跌，苹果年内下跌6%、英伟达下跌15%、阿斯麦下跌12%、AMD下跌11%...这一月份尚未过去，年内跌幅已高达15%，这让习惯了美股慢牛的投资者如何忍受？风水轮流转，今年到港股，不同于美股成长股的萎靡不振，港股互联网巨头开启轰轰烈烈的反弹，其中，腾讯控股年内上涨3%、阿里巴巴上涨8%、美团5%、京东集团10%、快手25%...即使2021年糟糕透顶的恒生指数，2022年也涨了6%！而纳斯达克指数则下跌8%！港美为何走出截然不同的走势？2020年，疫情突袭全球，对消费和制造等传统行业予以重创，人民居家工作和学习时间拉长，互联网和科技行业恰好作为受益者，不仅盈利能力不受疫情影响，反而实现大增。因此，港股和美股的互联网巨头及科技股基本同步大涨。而时间转到2021年，我国开展互联网整顿，打击教培，一系列政策铁拳袭来，互联网巨头应声倒下，加上大跌之前估值高企，一轮戴维斯双杀就这样笼罩了港股市场整整一年。时光跨入2022年，互联网行业的反垄断仍在进行中，但相关概念股却不再创新低，而是走上了反弹的步伐，为何？只因股价大跌，提前释放了估值风险，而一系列政策打击后，多数互联网巨头的估值进入低估状态。当估值变得便宜的时候，资金便会蜂拥而至，所谓的利空消息反而成了低价吸筹的好机会。从恒生指数历年估值来看，2021年底对应的估值仅有10PE，处于历史低估区域：虽然最近10年，恒生指数曾在2016年时估值低到8PE，然而时过境迁，当下恒生指数的构成已经由金融能源转变为信息技术和可选消费，这两个行业的估值和前景可比金融能源好很多。从几个代表性个股来看，如苹果","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce3181985d46405ddb500bf09b89c4e0","width":"632","height":"166"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e4195268e1cfdd9a5bde51c88cdf782","width":"632","height":"429"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb3dccc5428401ac7bc533c231ad2c01","width":"632","height":"370"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630987995","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1959,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":630950508,"gmtCreate":1642673821067,"gmtModify":1642673821173,"author":{"id":"4099529441829710","authorId":"4099529441829710","name":"Ethan 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11:41","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"半年评级“买入”最多！为什么机构如此看好海尔智家？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2204106103","media":"证券之星","summary":"进入2022年，海尔智家接连获得多家券商机构的关注，仅1月11日至今已有13份研报给予“买入”评级。另据雪球数据显示，海尔智家近半年获得27家券商机构发布研报推荐，其中有24家给予“买入”评级，为行业最多。那么，为什么机构如此看好海尔智家？具体来看，在全球化方面，海尔智家近半年逆势扩大产能。","content":"<html><body><article><p>进入2022年，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600690\">海尔智家</a>接连获得多家券商机构的关注，仅1月11日至今已有13份研报给予“买入”评级。另据雪球数据显示，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06690\">海尔智家</a>近半年获得27家券商机构发布研报推荐，其中有24家给予“买入”评级，为行业最多。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20220120115218896d154rh8olr4lnvt\"/><p>那么，为什么机构如此看好海尔智家？梳理发现，24家券商机构提到最多的是全球化、卡萨帝、三翼鸟、数字化、<span>股权激励</span>等字眼。</p><p>具体来看，在全球化方面，海尔智家近半年逆势扩大产能。其中，3家新投产的工厂年产值超525万台，3家新奠基的工厂也将在2022年相继投产，预计投产后年产能超200万台、产值将超100亿元。安信证券认为，海尔智家迎来全球化发展的黄金时期，海外业务是未来利润增长的重要<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/838275\">驱动力</a>，并预计海外业务2020~2025年收入CAGR为8%，2025年经营利润可达约116亿元。</p><p>在卡萨帝方面，换道场景后的卡萨帝前三季度收入增速达57%，并且近5年来以每年30%的复合增长率领跑行业。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601878\">浙商证券</a>指出，展望今年，内销方面，随着套系化推进、厨电与空调发力，卡萨帝将延续高增长势头，引领营收成长。</p><p>在三翼鸟方面，大店进入生态共创的3.0时代，落地进程提速，全国已落地1563家体验中心。对此，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601688\">华泰证券</a>认为，相较于前2个版本，新门店的用户体验升级、智慧场景方案、个性化定制服务进一步迭代。随着终端门店的建设、宣传和推广，公司将以智慧家庭这一全新产品理念引领消费升级。</p><p>在数字化方面，海尔智家已经实现了平台的数字化、人的数字化、能力的数字化。安信证券在研报中提到，公司深化数字化变革，通过高端化、套系化、场景化销售模式，助力国内家电业务开源节流，预计公司2021~23年EPS 分别为1.36/1.57/1.81 元。</p><p>在股权激励方面，近半年内股权激励计划的发布，加之不久前<span>增发</span>H股，进一步凸显了公司经营信心以及投资者的长期看好。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601162\">天风证券</a>在研报中指出，港股<span>配股</span>将强化上市公司与集团利益一致性，其他参与方也有望为公司业务发展提供策略性资源，助力公司长期发展。</p><p>综上来看，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06886\">华泰证券</a>认为，自提出高端品牌、场景品牌、生态品牌三大品牌升级战略以来，海尔智家持续扩大在高端成套与智慧家庭场景方案、全球化业务布局与高效运营体系等方面的优势，新的营收增长通道已开启。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n半年评级“买入”最多！为什么机构如此看好海尔智家？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-20 11:41 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202201201152217c6d1c5b&s=b><strong>证券之星</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>进入2022年，海尔智家接连获得多家券商机构的关注，仅1月11日至今已有13份研报给予“买入”评级。另据雪球数据显示，海尔智家近半年获得27家券商机构发布研报推荐，其中有24家给予“买入”评级，为行业最多。那么，为什么机构如此看好海尔智家？梳理发现，24家券商机构提到最多的是全球化、卡萨帝、三翼鸟、数字化、股权激励等字眼。具体来看，在全球化方面，海尔智家近半年逆势扩大产能。其中，3家新投产的工厂...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202201201152217c6d1c5b&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3996b843dd6a60eaa5e5d861b252f6a","relate_stocks":{"600690":"海尔智家","06690":"海尔智家"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202201201152217c6d1c5b&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2204106103","content_text":"进入2022年，海尔智家接连获得多家券商机构的关注，仅1月11日至今已有13份研报给予“买入”评级。另据雪球数据显示，海尔智家近半年获得27家券商机构发布研报推荐，其中有24家给予“买入”评级，为行业最多。那么，为什么机构如此看好海尔智家？梳理发现，24家券商机构提到最多的是全球化、卡萨帝、三翼鸟、数字化、股权激励等字眼。具体来看，在全球化方面，海尔智家近半年逆势扩大产能。其中，3家新投产的工厂年产值超525万台，3家新奠基的工厂也将在2022年相继投产，预计投产后年产能超200万台、产值将超100亿元。安信证券认为，海尔智家迎来全球化发展的黄金时期，海外业务是未来利润增长的重要驱动力，并预计海外业务2020~2025年收入CAGR为8%，2025年经营利润可达约116亿元。在卡萨帝方面，换道场景后的卡萨帝前三季度收入增速达57%，并且近5年来以每年30%的复合增长率领跑行业。浙商证券指出，展望今年，内销方面，随着套系化推进、厨电与空调发力，卡萨帝将延续高增长势头，引领营收成长。在三翼鸟方面，大店进入生态共创的3.0时代，落地进程提速，全国已落地1563家体验中心。对此，华泰证券认为，相较于前2个版本，新门店的用户体验升级、智慧场景方案、个性化定制服务进一步迭代。随着终端门店的建设、宣传和推广，公司将以智慧家庭这一全新产品理念引领消费升级。在数字化方面，海尔智家已经实现了平台的数字化、人的数字化、能力的数字化。安信证券在研报中提到，公司深化数字化变革，通过高端化、套系化、场景化销售模式，助力国内家电业务开源节流，预计公司2021~23年EPS 分别为1.36/1.57/1.81 元。在股权激励方面，近半年内股权激励计划的发布，加之不久前增发H股，进一步凸显了公司经营信心以及投资者的长期看好。天风证券在研报中指出，港股配股将强化上市公司与集团利益一致性，其他参与方也有望为公司业务发展提供策略性资源，助力公司长期发展。综上来看，华泰证券认为，自提出高端品牌、场景品牌、生态品牌三大品牌升级战略以来，海尔智家持续扩大在高端成套与智慧家庭场景方案、全球化业务布局与高效运营体系等方面的优势，新的营收增长通道已开启。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"600690":1,"06690":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1375,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":630095419,"gmtCreate":1642624219501,"gmtModify":1642624221490,"author":{"id":"4099529441829710","authorId":"4099529441829710","name":"Ethan Ooi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4582faaea3eeb3a8816269a8ac4f567b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099529441829710","authorIdStr":"4099529441829710"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630095419","repostId":"1182201268","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1182201268","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1642552167,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1182201268?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-19 08:29","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"英伟达VS台积电，哪个是更好的半导体股票？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182201268","media":"猛兽财经","summary":"$英伟达$和$台积电$都是是世界级的半导体公司。台积电是无晶圆厂结构，而英伟达依赖台积电生产芯片，英伟达还是台积电最重要的客户之一，截至2021年12月，英伟达已经是台积电第六大客户了。英伟达和台积电股票5Y表现。台积电还是领先流程节点的关键参与者，其资本支出中约有80%用于支持其在该领域的投资。考虑到台积电拥有一条延伸至25年的收入跑道，其产能限制似乎是其目前的主要限制。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>都是是世界级的半导体公司。此外，两家公司也都是各自重要的合作伙伴，而不是竞争对手。台积电是无晶圆厂结构，而英伟达依赖台积电生产芯片，英伟达还是台积电最重要的客户之一，截至2021年12月，英伟达已经是台积电第六大客户了。投资者还需要注意的是，与主要竞争对手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>不同的是，台积电并不与客户竞争。它的纯业务方式也有助于巩固与其最大客户<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>的关系，后者是它的独家代工合作伙伴。</p><p>英伟达在推进其技术路线图方面已经取得了巨大的进展。它是加速计算领域无可争议的领导者，拥有世界级的GPU (dGPU)主导地位。此外，它还通过软件堆栈和自动驾驶解决方案扩展了TAM。因此，英伟达现在是一家领先的全栈人工智能技术公司，我们认为它将是未来十年最具影响力的科技巨头之一。</p><p>考虑到他们截然不同的商业模式，要得出结论哪家公司更适合投资者并不是一件容易的事，然而，我们可以通过分析推动他们增长的关键驱动因素来帮助投资者做出决策，哪家公司更适合他们。</p><p><b>英伟达和台积电的股票表现</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa5f7ae54b0ff4f05b05fafc3d24af34\" tg-width=\"675\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>英伟达和台积电股票1Y表现(截至22年1月6日)。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62505d91720a7d6dd54bdc357649e361\" tg-width=\"672\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>英伟达和台积电股票5Y表现(截至22年1月6日)。</p><p>这两只股票都是半导体领域的龙头股票，表现也轻松超过大盘。台积电股票的5年收益率为347%（复合年增长率：34.7%），而英伟达股票则以5年956%的收益率（复合年增长率：59.9%）成为明显的赢家。但是，如果我们仔细观察一下他们各自1年的表现，就会发现台积电股票的表现低于其5年的平均水平。它的1年回报率为17.8%，也远低于英伟达股票的115.8%。因此，考虑到台积电作为代工行业的领导者所扮演的关键角色，他们的分叉轨迹也令投资者(包括我们)感到困惑。因此，我们需要考虑台积电是否能从盘整阶段恢复到5年的回报率。此外，对于英伟达的投资者来说，考虑到该公司过去两年的巨大收益，英伟达的投资者也必须评估该股的估值是否有被大幅压缩的风险。</p><p><b>台积电未来的主要<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/838275\">驱动力</a>是什么</b></p><p>台积电是半导体价值链的关键参与者。随着时间的推移，它一直保持着超过50%的代工市场份额(不包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>)。TrendForce预计，台积电在21年第三季度的代工市场份额为53.1%，远高于三星的17.1%。台积电还是领先流程节点的关键参与者，其资本支出中约有80%用于支持其在该领域的投资。因此，该公司的增长主要是由5G手机升级、物联网、高性能计算和自动驾驶等长期驱动因素支撑的。考虑到为苹果公司代工占到台积电25%的收入份额，所以，台积电和苹果公司有着极其紧密的关系也就不足为奇了。值得注意的是，苹果公司完全依赖台积电生产芯片。此外，苹果并不是唯一一个完全依赖台积电生产芯片的客户。世界上最大的移动芯片开发商联发科技也依赖于台积电独家生产其芯片，并是台积电的第二大客户。联发科还透露，计划在5G移动芯片领域与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a>（QCOM）展开更积极的竞争。这是一个高通占据领先地位的细分市场，但联发科渴望扩展并占据更大的市场份额。因此，考虑到联发科的雄心，这对台积电来说是个好兆头。此外，台积电的第三大客户<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>也完全依赖于台积电的7nm及以下工艺生产。随着AMD对超大规模产品和企业数据中心市场的关注日益增加，它将需要更多的依赖台积电的发展。因此，我们认为台积电能否继续保持其在领先流程节点的领先地位至关重要。</p><p>此外，即使台积电今年计划投入300亿美元的大规模资本支出，也可能不足以满足其需求。考虑到台积电拥有一条延伸至25年的收入跑道，其产能限制似乎是其目前的主要限制。因此，当Digitimes最近报道台积电计划在2022年将资本支出再增加200亿美元时，我们并不感到意外。</p><p>【台积电拥有强大的7nm、6nm、5nm和4nm制程制造订单，以及成熟的28nm芯片订单，而28nm芯片的供应已经紧张，这对许多纯晶圆代工厂构成了挑战。因此，台积电的三年资本支出计划可能仍不足以满足其产能扩张的需求，据工厂工具制造商的消息人士称，台积电可能向其资本支出计划再投入200亿美元（Digitimes）。】</p><p><b>英伟达未来的主要驱动力是什么</b></p><p>英伟达在dGPU市场的领先地位是毋庸置疑的，尽管AMD在2022年国际消费电子展上发布了新的GPU，以及英特尔(INTC)也推出了Arc dGPU，但是，英伟达还是对其市场领导地位充满信心。英伟达的首席财务官Colette Kres表示：</p><p>【我们对dGPU领域的竞争并不陌生。这是我们历史上非常重要的一部分，我们将继续致力于为消费者市场打造最好的dGPU。我们的品牌屹立不倒是有原因的。这不仅仅是一个重要的芯片架构。还是一个围绕我们为客户提供的整体芯片解决方案而建立7的一个完整的生态系统。现在，我们看到的是我们的性能和整体架构已经超越他们了，未来我们将继续努力向前发展。(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>科技/ 2022国际消费电子展汽车论坛)】</p><p>Colette Kres没有吹牛，而且有充分的理由可以证明他所说的话，（关于这一点我们在之前的文章中有过很多解释），因为英伟达有好几个可以利用其硬件堆栈产生数十美元收入的机会。比如英伟达表示其AI Enterprise堆栈（该公司也是推动许多汽车制造商自动驾驶技术的关键参与者之一）每年就可以为它带来50亿美元的收入机会。其NVIDIA Hyperion 8也有望为其合并后的产品线带来可观的收入，它强调其汽车堆栈产品的年收入将会增加到80亿美元，值得注意的是，在最近的发布会上，Kress还谈到了英伟达的NVIDIA Omniverse堆栈，并预计Omniverse可以接触到4000万设计师、人工智能工程师和创作者，每人每年支付1000美元的话，这将是一个巨大的机会，Omniverse带来的巨大商机可能每年会为英伟达带来400亿美元的收入机会。我们非常确定，这些机会并没有被充分考虑进英伟达的收入和盈利预测中。由于这些都是软件收入，英伟达应该还会获得可观的运营杠杆，这应该会进一步增加其目前的硬件盈利能力。</p><p><b>那么，哪只股票更好呢?</b></p><p>毫无疑问，市场对英伟达股票的估值要高得多。其EV/NTM EBITDA为55.6倍，显著高于3Y平均值44.1倍。虽然台积电的股价也高于其3Y平均值11倍，但其13.1倍的NTM EBITDA却远低于英伟达的估值倍数。</p><p>因此，我们认为，毫无疑问，CEO黄仁勋需要在未来五到十年里出色而完美地执行才能实现这些机会。这些机会可能会在未来决定英伟达的估值。因此，英伟达如何通过出色的执行来实现公司的潜力将会变得非常重要，如果你对英伟达的交付能力非常有信心，那么在当前的机会增加头寸是非常合理的，而且我们认为该公司并没有被严重高估。</p><p>相比之下，我们之前也分享过，鉴于台积电目前仍处于盘整阶段，所以台积电股票的估值看起来仍然很有吸引力。因此，我们认为，台积电股票为投资者提供了一个有吸引力的机会。</p><p>因此，我们在投资组合中都持有这两支股票，并相信它们是科技投资者的基石股票。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1586862168255","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n英伟达VS台积电，哪个是更好的半导体股票？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-19 08:29 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/OHsN3KcJ8OQhCCX0HSckbg><strong>猛兽财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>英伟达和台积电都是是世界级的半导体公司。此外，两家公司也都是各自重要的合作伙伴，而不是竞争对手。台积电是无晶圆厂结构，而英伟达依赖台积电生产芯片，英伟达还是台积电最重要的客户之一，截至2021年12月，英伟达已经是台积电第六大客户了。投资者还需要注意的是，与主要竞争对手三星不同的是，台积电并不与客户竞争。它的纯业务方式也有助于巩固与其最大客户苹果的关系，后者是它的独家代工合作伙伴。英伟达在推进其...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/OHsN3KcJ8OQhCCX0HSckbg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a1a8c5698b6f32ee1637556a15bb35b","relate_stocks":{"BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","NVDA":"英伟达","03145":"华夏亚洲高息股","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4529":"IDC概念","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4543":"AI","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4512":"苹果概念","BK4141":"半导体产品","TSM":"台积电","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","EWT":"台湾ETF-iShares MSCI","BK4567":"ESG概念"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/OHsN3KcJ8OQhCCX0HSckbg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182201268","content_text":"英伟达和台积电都是是世界级的半导体公司。此外，两家公司也都是各自重要的合作伙伴，而不是竞争对手。台积电是无晶圆厂结构，而英伟达依赖台积电生产芯片，英伟达还是台积电最重要的客户之一，截至2021年12月，英伟达已经是台积电第六大客户了。投资者还需要注意的是，与主要竞争对手三星不同的是，台积电并不与客户竞争。它的纯业务方式也有助于巩固与其最大客户苹果的关系，后者是它的独家代工合作伙伴。英伟达在推进其技术路线图方面已经取得了巨大的进展。它是加速计算领域无可争议的领导者，拥有世界级的GPU (dGPU)主导地位。此外，它还通过软件堆栈和自动驾驶解决方案扩展了TAM。因此，英伟达现在是一家领先的全栈人工智能技术公司，我们认为它将是未来十年最具影响力的科技巨头之一。考虑到他们截然不同的商业模式，要得出结论哪家公司更适合投资者并不是一件容易的事，然而，我们可以通过分析推动他们增长的关键驱动因素来帮助投资者做出决策，哪家公司更适合他们。英伟达和台积电的股票表现英伟达和台积电股票1Y表现(截至22年1月6日)。英伟达和台积电股票5Y表现(截至22年1月6日)。这两只股票都是半导体领域的龙头股票，表现也轻松超过大盘。台积电股票的5年收益率为347%（复合年增长率：34.7%），而英伟达股票则以5年956%的收益率（复合年增长率：59.9%）成为明显的赢家。但是，如果我们仔细观察一下他们各自1年的表现，就会发现台积电股票的表现低于其5年的平均水平。它的1年回报率为17.8%，也远低于英伟达股票的115.8%。因此，考虑到台积电作为代工行业的领导者所扮演的关键角色，他们的分叉轨迹也令投资者(包括我们)感到困惑。因此，我们需要考虑台积电是否能从盘整阶段恢复到5年的回报率。此外，对于英伟达的投资者来说，考虑到该公司过去两年的巨大收益，英伟达的投资者也必须评估该股的估值是否有被大幅压缩的风险。台积电未来的主要驱动力是什么台积电是半导体价值链的关键参与者。随着时间的推移，它一直保持着超过50%的代工市场份额(不包括英特尔)。TrendForce预计，台积电在21年第三季度的代工市场份额为53.1%，远高于三星的17.1%。台积电还是领先流程节点的关键参与者，其资本支出中约有80%用于支持其在该领域的投资。因此，该公司的增长主要是由5G手机升级、物联网、高性能计算和自动驾驶等长期驱动因素支撑的。考虑到为苹果公司代工占到台积电25%的收入份额，所以，台积电和苹果公司有着极其紧密的关系也就不足为奇了。值得注意的是，苹果公司完全依赖台积电生产芯片。此外，苹果并不是唯一一个完全依赖台积电生产芯片的客户。世界上最大的移动芯片开发商联发科技也依赖于台积电独家生产其芯片，并是台积电的第二大客户。联发科还透露，计划在5G移动芯片领域与高通（QCOM）展开更积极的竞争。这是一个高通占据领先地位的细分市场，但联发科渴望扩展并占据更大的市场份额。因此，考虑到联发科的雄心，这对台积电来说是个好兆头。此外，台积电的第三大客户AMD也完全依赖于台积电的7nm及以下工艺生产。随着AMD对超大规模产品和企业数据中心市场的关注日益增加，它将需要更多的依赖台积电的发展。因此，我们认为台积电能否继续保持其在领先流程节点的领先地位至关重要。此外，即使台积电今年计划投入300亿美元的大规模资本支出，也可能不足以满足其需求。考虑到台积电拥有一条延伸至25年的收入跑道，其产能限制似乎是其目前的主要限制。因此，当Digitimes最近报道台积电计划在2022年将资本支出再增加200亿美元时，我们并不感到意外。【台积电拥有强大的7nm、6nm、5nm和4nm制程制造订单，以及成熟的28nm芯片订单，而28nm芯片的供应已经紧张，这对许多纯晶圆代工厂构成了挑战。因此，台积电的三年资本支出计划可能仍不足以满足其产能扩张的需求，据工厂工具制造商的消息人士称，台积电可能向其资本支出计划再投入200亿美元（Digitimes）。】英伟达未来的主要驱动力是什么英伟达在dGPU市场的领先地位是毋庸置疑的，尽管AMD在2022年国际消费电子展上发布了新的GPU，以及英特尔(INTC)也推出了Arc dGPU，但是，英伟达还是对其市场领导地位充满信心。英伟达的首席财务官Colette Kres表示：【我们对dGPU领域的竞争并不陌生。这是我们历史上非常重要的一部分，我们将继续致力于为消费者市场打造最好的dGPU。我们的品牌屹立不倒是有原因的。这不仅仅是一个重要的芯片架构。还是一个围绕我们为客户提供的整体芯片解决方案而建立7的一个完整的生态系统。现在，我们看到的是我们的性能和整体架构已经超越他们了，未来我们将继续努力向前发展。(摩根大通科技/ 2022国际消费电子展汽车论坛)】Colette Kres没有吹牛，而且有充分的理由可以证明他所说的话，（关于这一点我们在之前的文章中有过很多解释），因为英伟达有好几个可以利用其硬件堆栈产生数十美元收入的机会。比如英伟达表示其AI Enterprise堆栈（该公司也是推动许多汽车制造商自动驾驶技术的关键参与者之一）每年就可以为它带来50亿美元的收入机会。其NVIDIA Hyperion 8也有望为其合并后的产品线带来可观的收入，它强调其汽车堆栈产品的年收入将会增加到80亿美元，值得注意的是，在最近的发布会上，Kress还谈到了英伟达的NVIDIA Omniverse堆栈，并预计Omniverse可以接触到4000万设计师、人工智能工程师和创作者，每人每年支付1000美元的话，这将是一个巨大的机会，Omniverse带来的巨大商机可能每年会为英伟达带来400亿美元的收入机会。我们非常确定，这些机会并没有被充分考虑进英伟达的收入和盈利预测中。由于这些都是软件收入，英伟达应该还会获得可观的运营杠杆，这应该会进一步增加其目前的硬件盈利能力。那么，哪只股票更好呢?毫无疑问，市场对英伟达股票的估值要高得多。其EV/NTM EBITDA为55.6倍，显著高于3Y平均值44.1倍。虽然台积电的股价也高于其3Y平均值11倍，但其13.1倍的NTM EBITDA却远低于英伟达的估值倍数。因此，我们认为，毫无疑问，CEO黄仁勋需要在未来五到十年里出色而完美地执行才能实现这些机会。这些机会可能会在未来决定英伟达的估值。因此，英伟达如何通过出色的执行来实现公司的潜力将会变得非常重要，如果你对英伟达的交付能力非常有信心，那么在当前的机会增加头寸是非常合理的，而且我们认为该公司并没有被严重高估。相比之下，我们之前也分享过，鉴于台积电目前仍处于盘整阶段，所以台积电股票的估值看起来仍然很有吸引力。因此，我们认为，台积电股票为投资者提供了一个有吸引力的机会。因此，我们在投资组合中都持有这两支股票，并相信它们是科技投资者的基石股票。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"03145":0.9,"EWT":0.9,"NVDA":0.9,"TSM":0.9,"TWmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":233,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":630095088,"gmtCreate":1642623902879,"gmtModify":1642623903092,"author":{"id":"4099529441829710","authorId":"4099529441829710","name":"Ethan Ooi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4582faaea3eeb3a8816269a8ac4f567b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099529441829710","authorIdStr":"4099529441829710"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630095088","repostId":"697710703","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":697710703,"gmtCreate":1642588320000,"gmtModify":1741599100927,"author":{"id":"3524030243818067","authorId":"3524030243818067","name":"4207f134","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ebc2483f5c94ab5917a7ec0eb2e1f05","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3524030243818067","authorIdStr":"3524030243818067"},"themes":[],"title":"洪灏：港股显示深度配置价值，抓住市场拐点比选股重要","htmlText":"编者按 2021年全年香港市场表现欠佳，有分析将这一切归咎于中国互联网行业所面临的强监管态势，但是交银国际洪灝认为，强监管只是表象，防止投机资本流入国内市场才是深层原因，并且在这种强监管下，香港已经开始显示出深度配置价值。 在1月17日由《巴伦周刊》中文版和洪灝联合打造的《巴伦灝问》直播课中，洪灝也强调了港股市场在2022年的配置价值。在收紧的香港流动性和国内强监管态势的双重影响下，香港已跌入价值洼地。市场见底是一个险象环生的过程，投资者如何能在市场拐点抓住机遇，往往比选择哪一只股票来的更重要。 “悲伤和绝望中蕴藏着巨大的力量。”—— 查尔斯·狄更斯，《双城记》 为什么，2021年全年香港市场表现欠佳？更重要的是，为什么，尽管香港和上海并称中国举足轻重的两大市场，但是香港的表现今年却远逊于上海?事实上，包括中国的美国存托凭证（ADRs）、中国互联网公司和恒生科技指数在内的中国所有离岸股指的表现都跑输了在岸股指。然而，无论股指在岸还是离岸，都理应无一例外地如实反映中国经济的基本面。 中国经济增速在2021年有所放缓，但其货币政策的选择与西方央行的政策路径相悖。经济减速的态势从规模以上的工业增加值、采购经理人指数和固定资产投资等多项宏观经济数据中可见一斑。此外，恒生指数在今年2月前后触顶，与宏观经济开始减速慢行的时点吻合。然而，上证综指却仍保持韧性和定力，全年勉强小幅收涨，与恒指2月后下行的走势大相径庭(图表1)。 有分析将这一切归咎于中国互联网行业所面临的强监管态势。诚然——头部互联网平台公司大都奔赴海外上市，它们的弱势在一定程度上令跌跌不休的恒指雪上加霜。其实，在我们去年11月发布2021年展望报告时，我们曾直言不讳地将当时的中国科技公司的估值称作“泡沫”，并敦促投资者避而远之转而做多大宗商品。但又如何解释那些在香港上市的国内消费和医疗板块龙头企业——它们并未受监管风暴波及","listText":"编者按 2021年全年香港市场表现欠佳，有分析将这一切归咎于中国互联网行业所面临的强监管态势，但是交银国际洪灝认为，强监管只是表象，防止投机资本流入国内市场才是深层原因，并且在这种强监管下，香港已经开始显示出深度配置价值。 在1月17日由《巴伦周刊》中文版和洪灝联合打造的《巴伦灝问》直播课中，洪灝也强调了港股市场在2022年的配置价值。在收紧的香港流动性和国内强监管态势的双重影响下，香港已跌入价值洼地。市场见底是一个险象环生的过程，投资者如何能在市场拐点抓住机遇，往往比选择哪一只股票来的更重要。 “悲伤和绝望中蕴藏着巨大的力量。”—— 查尔斯·狄更斯，《双城记》 为什么，2021年全年香港市场表现欠佳？更重要的是，为什么，尽管香港和上海并称中国举足轻重的两大市场，但是香港的表现今年却远逊于上海?事实上，包括中国的美国存托凭证（ADRs）、中国互联网公司和恒生科技指数在内的中国所有离岸股指的表现都跑输了在岸股指。然而，无论股指在岸还是离岸，都理应无一例外地如实反映中国经济的基本面。 中国经济增速在2021年有所放缓，但其货币政策的选择与西方央行的政策路径相悖。经济减速的态势从规模以上的工业增加值、采购经理人指数和固定资产投资等多项宏观经济数据中可见一斑。此外，恒生指数在今年2月前后触顶，与宏观经济开始减速慢行的时点吻合。然而，上证综指却仍保持韧性和定力，全年勉强小幅收涨，与恒指2月后下行的走势大相径庭(图表1)。 有分析将这一切归咎于中国互联网行业所面临的强监管态势。诚然——头部互联网平台公司大都奔赴海外上市，它们的弱势在一定程度上令跌跌不休的恒指雪上加霜。其实，在我们去年11月发布2021年展望报告时，我们曾直言不讳地将当时的中国科技公司的估值称作“泡沫”，并敦促投资者避而远之转而做多大宗商品。但又如何解释那些在香港上市的国内消费和医疗板块龙头企业——它们并未受监管风暴波及","text":"编者按 2021年全年香港市场表现欠佳，有分析将这一切归咎于中国互联网行业所面临的强监管态势，但是交银国际洪灝认为，强监管只是表象，防止投机资本流入国内市场才是深层原因，并且在这种强监管下，香港已经开始显示出深度配置价值。 在1月17日由《巴伦周刊》中文版和洪灝联合打造的《巴伦灝问》直播课中，洪灝也强调了港股市场在2022年的配置价值。在收紧的香港流动性和国内强监管态势的双重影响下，香港已跌入价值洼地。市场见底是一个险象环生的过程，投资者如何能在市场拐点抓住机遇，往往比选择哪一只股票来的更重要。 “悲伤和绝望中蕴藏着巨大的力量。”—— 查尔斯·狄更斯，《双城记》 为什么，2021年全年香港市场表现欠佳？更重要的是，为什么，尽管香港和上海并称中国举足轻重的两大市场，但是香港的表现今年却远逊于上海?事实上，包括中国的美国存托凭证（ADRs）、中国互联网公司和恒生科技指数在内的中国所有离岸股指的表现都跑输了在岸股指。然而，无论股指在岸还是离岸，都理应无一例外地如实反映中国经济的基本面。 中国经济增速在2021年有所放缓，但其货币政策的选择与西方央行的政策路径相悖。经济减速的态势从规模以上的工业增加值、采购经理人指数和固定资产投资等多项宏观经济数据中可见一斑。此外，恒生指数在今年2月前后触顶，与宏观经济开始减速慢行的时点吻合。然而，上证综指却仍保持韧性和定力，全年勉强小幅收涨，与恒指2月后下行的走势大相径庭(图表1)。 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下面我会一一讲解买入的逻辑。首先紫色的两条线是我画的下跌通道，暗红色的两条线是压力位。第一个白圈是非常明显的买点，一根带量的大阳线不仅突破了下跌通道而且也突破了布林带中轨，强势上涨。我在这里建了仓位。第二个白圈是红三兵的k线组合，加上量价齐增和超长下影线的支撑，可以追涨。后面几天来到了第一根暗红色的压力位，虽然感受到了压力，但是可以看到整理的三天都收在了压力位上。在这个位置如果求稳的朋友可以等到正式突破压力位后再追进去，我在这里是为了利润最大化，也加上对后市的强烈看好，在盘整的时候就加了仓。最后一个白圈来到了前期最重要的压力位，也是上次回调时的最高点。这个时候我就建议等突破后在追单因为纳指在以前都是会大概率做一个双顶。当然突破后自然是一片大好河山，涨的非常凶猛。那么整体这波涨势是非常的强势，仅仅在两个压力位盘整了一下，盘整中支撑也非常强，没有丝毫下跌。但是很多人应该都听过这句话：会买是徒弟，会卖是师傅。什么时候止盈比什么时候该买更加重要。坦白讲我在这方面之前一直都很差，卖飞的票不计其数。通过操作和总结纳指期货的特性，我现在止盈的依据缩小到了只看布林带上轨。可以看到之前突破中","listText":"一个月前写了一篇关于做空期货的文章，里面介绍了什么是期货，期货的特点和优势，还有几个我常用的做空策略。感兴趣的朋友可以再去看一看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/820863986\" target=\"_blank\">期货的做空</a>。当时说后面会再出一个做多期货的文章，今天就来写一下做多的策略。由于我实在不想去翻之前做多单的记录，我就直接用现在手上拿着的纳斯达克单来做讲解。上图是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\" target=\"_blank\">$NQ100指数主连 2112(NQmain)$</a>，四个白圈分别是我买入的位置。 下面我会一一讲解买入的逻辑。首先紫色的两条线是我画的下跌通道，暗红色的两条线是压力位。第一个白圈是非常明显的买点，一根带量的大阳线不仅突破了下跌通道而且也突破了布林带中轨，强势上涨。我在这里建了仓位。第二个白圈是红三兵的k线组合，加上量价齐增和超长下影线的支撑，可以追涨。后面几天来到了第一根暗红色的压力位，虽然感受到了压力，但是可以看到整理的三天都收在了压力位上。在这个位置如果求稳的朋友可以等到正式突破压力位后再追进去，我在这里是为了利润最大化，也加上对后市的强烈看好，在盘整的时候就加了仓。最后一个白圈来到了前期最重要的压力位，也是上次回调时的最高点。这个时候我就建议等突破后在追单因为纳指在以前都是会大概率做一个双顶。当然突破后自然是一片大好河山，涨的非常凶猛。那么整体这波涨势是非常的强势，仅仅在两个压力位盘整了一下，盘整中支撑也非常强，没有丝毫下跌。但是很多人应该都听过这句话：会买是徒弟，会卖是师傅。什么时候止盈比什么时候该买更加重要。坦白讲我在这方面之前一直都很差，卖飞的票不计其数。通过操作和总结纳指期货的特性，我现在止盈的依据缩小到了只看布林带上轨。可以看到之前突破中","text":"一个月前写了一篇关于做空期货的文章，里面介绍了什么是期货，期货的特点和优势，还有几个我常用的做空策略。感兴趣的朋友可以再去看一看期货的做空。当时说后面会再出一个做多期货的文章，今天就来写一下做多的策略。由于我实在不想去翻之前做多单的记录，我就直接用现在手上拿着的纳斯达克单来做讲解。上图是$NQ100指数主连 2112(NQmain)$，四个白圈分别是我买入的位置。 下面我会一一讲解买入的逻辑。首先紫色的两条线是我画的下跌通道，暗红色的两条线是压力位。第一个白圈是非常明显的买点，一根带量的大阳线不仅突破了下跌通道而且也突破了布林带中轨，强势上涨。我在这里建了仓位。第二个白圈是红三兵的k线组合，加上量价齐增和超长下影线的支撑，可以追涨。后面几天来到了第一根暗红色的压力位，虽然感受到了压力，但是可以看到整理的三天都收在了压力位上。在这个位置如果求稳的朋友可以等到正式突破压力位后再追进去，我在这里是为了利润最大化，也加上对后市的强烈看好，在盘整的时候就加了仓。最后一个白圈来到了前期最重要的压力位，也是上次回调时的最高点。这个时候我就建议等突破后在追单因为纳指在以前都是会大概率做一个双顶。当然突破后自然是一片大好河山，涨的非常凶猛。那么整体这波涨势是非常的强势，仅仅在两个压力位盘整了一下，盘整中支撑也非常强，没有丝毫下跌。但是很多人应该都听过这句话：会买是徒弟，会卖是师傅。什么时候止盈比什么时候该买更加重要。坦白讲我在这方面之前一直都很差，卖飞的票不计其数。通过操作和总结纳指期货的特性，我现在止盈的依据缩小到了只看布林带上轨。可以看到之前突破中","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3169178d84f65e00ab58dffd97b5c31","width":"951","height":"732"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/846158549","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":285,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":696822644,"gmtCreate":1640666790794,"gmtModify":1640666790875,"author":{"id":"4099529441829710","authorId":"4099529441829710","name":"Ethan 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3549309938028373\">@儿子娃娃</a> &nbsp;目前还是一名美国大四学生，他表示自己现阶段来到投资市场，赚钱不是主要目的，为的更多的是实践和积累经验。 现实也没有辜负他，在老虎社区一年多的时间里，积累了一些粉丝，也获得了让人惊叹的收益率... &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TP/289\" target=\"_blank\">#虎友访谈#</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3549309938028373\">@儿子娃娃</a> 今年22岁，美本大四在读，专业数学和统计， 擅长短线交易，发现价值投机机会。2021年收益超500%，在社区分享过多篇公司分析和交易策略的文章。爱好打网球，看电影，做饭。 &nbsp; &nbsp; T：昵称很有意思，有什么含义吗？ 儿子娃娃是家乡新疆的方言，形容勇敢，豪爽，说话算数的爷儿们。 T：聊聊您的投资背景吧，比如之前有啥其他的金融理财背景吗？如何接触到炒股的 我的投资背景其实时间并不长，只有一年多。 对金融的兴趣应该是在大二的一段实习过程中建立的，后来又在疫情期间开了自己的账户。 T：看您对科技股的关注比较多，是否有持仓呢？ 目前是持有科技指数型etf标的，如三倍做多纳斯达克qqq和三倍做多半导体soxl T：对近期的道指行情如何解读？ 道指系的公司如tgt，lmt，ual。其中tgt的百货系受通胀利好，ual航空系虽然这两周受新变异的影响，但总体恢复情况还不错，之前感恩节的流量报告甚至已经超越疫情前的水平。 T：美港股市场的年底行情，您看好吗？ 对于美股市场，我认为还会继续上涨，只有","listText":"&nbsp; 今天的嘉宾<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3549309938028373\">@儿子娃娃</a> &nbsp;目前还是一名美国大四学生，他表示自己现阶段来到投资市场，赚钱不是主要目的，为的更多的是实践和积累经验。 现实也没有辜负他，在老虎社区一年多的时间里，积累了一些粉丝，也获得了让人惊叹的收益率... &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TP/289\" target=\"_blank\">#虎友访谈#</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3549309938028373\">@儿子娃娃</a> 今年22岁，美本大四在读，专业数学和统计， 擅长短线交易，发现价值投机机会。2021年收益超500%，在社区分享过多篇公司分析和交易策略的文章。爱好打网球，看电影，做饭。 &nbsp; &nbsp; T：昵称很有意思，有什么含义吗？ 儿子娃娃是家乡新疆的方言，形容勇敢，豪爽，说话算数的爷儿们。 T：聊聊您的投资背景吧，比如之前有啥其他的金融理财背景吗？如何接触到炒股的 我的投资背景其实时间并不长，只有一年多。 对金融的兴趣应该是在大二的一段实习过程中建立的，后来又在疫情期间开了自己的账户。 T：看您对科技股的关注比较多，是否有持仓呢？ 目前是持有科技指数型etf标的，如三倍做多纳斯达克qqq和三倍做多半导体soxl T：对近期的道指行情如何解读？ 道指系的公司如tgt，lmt，ual。其中tgt的百货系受通胀利好，ual航空系虽然这两周受新变异的影响，但总体恢复情况还不错，之前感恩节的流量报告甚至已经超越疫情前的水平。 T：美港股市场的年底行情，您看好吗？ 对于美股市场，我认为还会继续上涨，只有","text":"今天的嘉宾@儿子娃娃 目前还是一名美国大四学生，他表示自己现阶段来到投资市场，赚钱不是主要目的，为的更多的是实践和积累经验。 现实也没有辜负他，在老虎社区一年多的时间里，积累了一些粉丝，也获得了让人惊叹的收益率... #虎友访谈# @儿子娃娃 今年22岁，美本大四在读，专业数学和统计， 擅长短线交易，发现价值投机机会。2021年收益超500%，在社区分享过多篇公司分析和交易策略的文章。爱好打网球，看电影，做饭。 T：昵称很有意思，有什么含义吗？ 儿子娃娃是家乡新疆的方言，形容勇敢，豪爽，说话算数的爷儿们。 T：聊聊您的投资背景吧，比如之前有啥其他的金融理财背景吗？如何接触到炒股的 我的投资背景其实时间并不长，只有一年多。 对金融的兴趣应该是在大二的一段实习过程中建立的，后来又在疫情期间开了自己的账户。 T：看您对科技股的关注比较多，是否有持仓呢？ 目前是持有科技指数型etf标的，如三倍做多纳斯达克qqq和三倍做多半导体soxl T：对近期的道指行情如何解读？ 道指系的公司如tgt，lmt，ual。其中tgt的百货系受通胀利好，ual航空系虽然这两周受新变异的影响，但总体恢复情况还不错，之前感恩节的流量报告甚至已经超越疫情前的水平。 T：美港股市场的年底行情，您看好吗？ 对于美股市场，我认为还会继续上涨，只有","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b45505b23c54a51f258a24c81a057328","width":"433","height":"285"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8493d3bd72ed002c009cbaae00fb05e0","width":"610","height":"373"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1539ec9dfb992196c417a1af159ea329","width":"445","height":"295"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607507468","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":514,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":696826199,"gmtCreate":1640666501539,"gmtModify":1640666501539,"author":{"id":"4099529441829710","authorId":"4099529441829710","name":"Ethan Ooi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4582faaea3eeb3a8816269a8ac4f567b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099529441829710","authorIdStr":"4099529441829710"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Learning Option","listText":"Learning Option","text":"Learning Option","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696826199","repostId":"816600550","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":816600550,"gmtCreate":1630491587670,"gmtModify":1631969516032,"author":{"id":"3556673506813374","authorId":"3556673506813374","name":"谋定后动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/865a6ec8ea0c03d186fb7dab736911ae","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556673506813374","authorIdStr":"3556673506813374"},"themes":[],"title":"【月入一万美元的期权实战策略】做买家还是卖家？（8月篇）","htmlText":"期权买家就像是创业者，期权卖家就像是卖保险的。你之前听到美股股市里那些一夜暴富或者那些年化100倍收益故事中的主人公一定都是期权的买家，就像那些在聚光灯下成功的创业者一样，他们的传奇他们的心得都被广泛地报道，不要因为看到有这么多的报道就以为创业是件容易的事情，这是一种幸存者偏差：100个创业者里可能就一个能成功，其他九十九个失败者是不会和你说那么多的。卖期权就像是你身边认识的那些卖保险经纪，踏踏实实的工作换来一份稳定的收入，但是没有哪个保险经纪能靠卖保险一夜暴富的。期权买家的收益通常是小概率事件，最大的损失就是全部的权利金，最大的收益可能是权利金的100倍甚至1000倍；而期权卖家则刚好相反，收益通常是大概率事件，最大的损失可能是期权所代表的全部正股价值，最大的收益就是权利金。这样的字面上看上去是不是当期权买家会更划算？别急，我后面为你更详细地拆解。按照国际惯例，我们先看看我期权策略这个月的收益情况：八月份盈利1万9千刀，全年平均每月盈利1万3千刀全年平均每月落袋盈利1万3千刀，夏普比率1.34，杠杆率2.06夏普比率简单地说就是衡量一个投资收益率和风险的比值，比值越大，说明该投资在承受同样的风险情况下，有更高的收益。具体的公式是风险收益比（Sharp Ratio）= （平均收益 - 无风险利率）/ 标准差八月份完成的期权交易一共8笔，记录如下截至8月30日我的<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>&nbsp;持仓截至8月30日我的<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a>&nbsp;持仓截至8月30日我的","listText":"期权买家就像是创业者，期权卖家就像是卖保险的。你之前听到美股股市里那些一夜暴富或者那些年化100倍收益故事中的主人公一定都是期权的买家，就像那些在聚光灯下成功的创业者一样，他们的传奇他们的心得都被广泛地报道，不要因为看到有这么多的报道就以为创业是件容易的事情，这是一种幸存者偏差：100个创业者里可能就一个能成功，其他九十九个失败者是不会和你说那么多的。卖期权就像是你身边认识的那些卖保险经纪，踏踏实实的工作换来一份稳定的收入，但是没有哪个保险经纪能靠卖保险一夜暴富的。期权买家的收益通常是小概率事件，最大的损失就是全部的权利金，最大的收益可能是权利金的100倍甚至1000倍；而期权卖家则刚好相反，收益通常是大概率事件，最大的损失可能是期权所代表的全部正股价值，最大的收益就是权利金。这样的字面上看上去是不是当期权买家会更划算？别急，我后面为你更详细地拆解。按照国际惯例，我们先看看我期权策略这个月的收益情况：八月份盈利1万9千刀，全年平均每月盈利1万3千刀全年平均每月落袋盈利1万3千刀，夏普比率1.34，杠杆率2.06夏普比率简单地说就是衡量一个投资收益率和风险的比值，比值越大，说明该投资在承受同样的风险情况下，有更高的收益。具体的公式是风险收益比（Sharp Ratio）= （平均收益 - 无风险利率）/ 标准差八月份完成的期权交易一共8笔，记录如下截至8月30日我的<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>&nbsp;持仓截至8月30日我的<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a>&nbsp;持仓截至8月30日我的","text":"期权买家就像是创业者，期权卖家就像是卖保险的。你之前听到美股股市里那些一夜暴富或者那些年化100倍收益故事中的主人公一定都是期权的买家，就像那些在聚光灯下成功的创业者一样，他们的传奇他们的心得都被广泛地报道，不要因为看到有这么多的报道就以为创业是件容易的事情，这是一种幸存者偏差：100个创业者里可能就一个能成功，其他九十九个失败者是不会和你说那么多的。卖期权就像是你身边认识的那些卖保险经纪，踏踏实实的工作换来一份稳定的收入，但是没有哪个保险经纪能靠卖保险一夜暴富的。期权买家的收益通常是小概率事件，最大的损失就是全部的权利金，最大的收益可能是权利金的100倍甚至1000倍；而期权卖家则刚好相反，收益通常是大概率事件，最大的损失可能是期权所代表的全部正股价值，最大的收益就是权利金。这样的字面上看上去是不是当期权买家会更划算？别急，我后面为你更详细地拆解。按照国际惯例，我们先看看我期权策略这个月的收益情况：八月份盈利1万9千刀，全年平均每月盈利1万3千刀全年平均每月落袋盈利1万3千刀，夏普比率1.34，杠杆率2.06夏普比率简单地说就是衡量一个投资收益率和风险的比值，比值越大，说明该投资在承受同样的风险情况下，有更高的收益。具体的公式是风险收益比（Sharp Ratio）= （平均收益 - 无风险利率）/ 标准差八月份完成的期权交易一共8笔，记录如下截至8月30日我的$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 持仓截至8月30日我的$英伟达(NVDA)$ 持仓截至8月30日我的","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff494e73c4864b9e94f49e01990756e","width":"972","height":"697"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/816600550","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":12,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":934,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":691444607,"gmtCreate":1640233561717,"gmtModify":1640233561812,"author":{"id":"4099529441829710","authorId":"4099529441829710","name":"Ethan Ooi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4582faaea3eeb3a8816269a8ac4f567b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099529441829710","authorIdStr":"4099529441829710"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good articles to read on Apple.&nbsp;","listText":"Good articles to read on Apple.&nbsp;","text":"Good articles to read on Apple.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691444607","repostId":"1164467804","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1164467804","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640230809,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1164467804?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-23 11:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Are there any bubbles in Apple stock?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164467804","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Apple stock has risen 34% this year, beating the NASDAQ 100 by a wide margin.This has led some to say that the stock is in a bubble, as its price is rising rapidly.However, Apple's stock price gains are about in line with revenue growth, and actually slower than the most recent quarter's EPS growth.In this article, I will develop a bullish thesis on Apple, arguing that it has a wide moat that will power future growth and profitability.Apple Inc. stock has delivered a solid performance in 2021. U","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Apple stock has risen 34% this year, beating the NASDAQ 100 by a wide margin.</li>\n <li>This has led some to say that the stock is in a bubble, as its price is rising rapidly.</li>\n <li>However, Apple's stock price gains are about in line with revenue growth, and actually slower than the most recent quarter's EPS growth.</li>\n <li>In this article, I will develop a bullish thesis on Apple, arguing that it has a wide moat that will power future growth and profitability.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e9d29c6db997dd98e087415e7e2acfe\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1036\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News</span></p>\n<p><b>Apple Inc.</b>(AAPL) stock has delivered a solid performance in 2021. Up 35% for the year, it has solidly outperformed both the NASDAQ 100 and the S&amp;P 500. The latest in a long streak of winning years for the company, Apple’s 2021 shows that a stock is never too big to beat the market.</p>\n<p>With that said, there’s no shortage of people who think Apple’s winning run is due for a correction. In recent weeks, we’ve seen a deluge of articles claiming that AAPL is overvalued, with titles like:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p><i>“Apple Stock is Now a Bubble.”</i></p></li>\n <li><p><i>“Why Apple Stock May Be a Bubble That’s Ready to Burst.”</i></p></li>\n <li><p><i>“Sell AAPL? Why This Expert Sees Apple Stock Dipping 12%”</i></p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>Not all of these articles have been unambiguously bearish. A few mention positives along with negatives. But generally speaking, the sentiment that Apple is a bubble, or at least overvalued, is becoming common. If you look at&nbsp;TipRanks’ sentiment chart, it shows decisively negative sentiment toward Apple stock.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce8357bc3eaf626336dbf12b2ff1f410\" tg-width=\"485\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: TipRanks’ sentiment chart</span></p>\n<p>The bearishness of investor sentiment toward Apple becomes clear when we compare it to the sentiment toward&nbsp;<b>Meta Platforms</b>(FB). Meta, a company that is being sued for antitrust violations and getting attacked in the press daily, has a nearly perfect sentiment score. So there is no special tech curse that guarantees negative sentiment toward individual stocks in the sector. Apple’s sentiment problem is indeed its own problem.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68bc8cf3f8fc200c2b7a9c85e69cc9f2\" tg-width=\"488\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Which begs the question:</p>\n<p><i>Why?</i></p>\n<p>Apple is a wide-moat stock, one of the few tech companies that controls both hardware and software for most of its users. Many companies have attempted to copy Apple’s strategy of maximizing revenue by integrating hardware and apps, but few have succeeded at it. If you want the IOS or Mac OS experience, you need an iPhone or Mac. And billions of people want those experiences enough to pay top dollar for Apple’s products. Few other tech companies have that advantage –&nbsp;<b>Nintendo</b>(OTCPK:NTDOY) being one exception, if you count gaming as tech.</p>\n<p>This makes Apple arguably a&nbsp;wide-moat stock. You need Apple hardware to run Apple software, and people like Apple software. This gives Apple a “monopoly” on a certain collection of software experiences. It does not have a monopoly on any particular device category, but it’s the only company that can provide the integrated&nbsp;Apple ecosystem.</p>\n<p>This advantage has paid dividends to Apple shareholders – both figuratively and literally. Apple is the world’s biggest company by market cap and the&nbsp;fourth-biggest by revenue. Its revenue growth rate has slowed in recent years, but certain segments (such as watches and services) are growing faster than ever. It appears, then, that Apple still has the potential for significant profitability and growth. Accordingly, I’ll develop a bullish thesis on Apple in this article, arguing that its solid economic moat provides potential for its stock to appreciate in the future.</p>\n<p><b>Competitive Landscape</b></p>\n<p>One of the most important things to understand about Apple is its competitive position. The company operates in such a wide variety of different markets that it’s hard to pin down its business beyond simply “tech.” Technically, the company’s SIC Code (industry classification) is 7372, denoting “prepackaged software.” However, this doesn’t capture the full extent of Apple’s business activities, as it’s also involved in hardware, semiconductors,payments&nbsp;and entertainment.</p>\n<p>Some of Apple’s most noteworthy competitors include:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p><b>Samsung</b>(OTC:SSNLF) - smartphones.</p></li>\n <li><p><b>Huawei</b>- smartphones.</p></li>\n <li><p><b>Alphabet</b>(GOOG) - smartphones, laptops, and software.</p></li>\n <li><p><b>Microsoft</b>(MSFT) - laptops.</p></li>\n <li><p><b>Dell</b>(NYSE:DELL)- laptops.</p></li>\n <li><p><b>Adobe</b>(ADBE) - creative software.</p></li>\n <li><p>And many more.</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>A comprehensive list of Apple’s competitors would be impossible to come up with, because the company operates in so many different verticals. In addition to all the names above, Apple is arguably in competition with the big semi companies, as it sells phones and laptops with Apple chips. Apple is one of the most comprehensive tech companies around, with a massive lineup of hardware, software and services, putting it in tacit competition with dozens of companies.</p>\n<p>How is Apple doing in the industries it competes in? According to&nbsp;Counterpoint Research&nbsp;and Statista, Apple’s market shares include:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>Smartphones: 47% in the US and 14% globally.</p></li>\n <li><p>Laptops: 15% in the US and 7.6% globally.</p></li>\n <li><p>Smartwatches: over 50% globally.</p></li>\n <li><p>Tablets: 35% globally.</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>On the whole, Apple is in first or second place in most of its markets. It’s behind Samsung on smartphone sales but it leads in watches and tablets. This is a pretty good market position. And it could grow over time. Some of Apple’s product categories are still fairly new. The company only just recently broke into smart watches and&nbsp;sales in the category are growing at 50%. Apple has taken heat lately for its slowing growth, but certain products within the company’s lineup are growing faster than ever. This provides potential for strong growth well into the future.</p>\n<p><b>The M1 Chip and Apple Services</b></p>\n<p>Speaking of future growth, it’s worth exploring two of Apple’s most promising categories:</p>\n<p><i>The M1 Chip and Apple Services.</i></p>\n<p>The M1 Chip (really the M1 family of chips now) is a new chip designed by Apple based on ARM architecture. The base configuration boasts:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>An 8-core CPU.</p></li>\n <li><p>A 7-core GPU.</p></li>\n <li><p>8 or 16 gigs of RAM (physically built into the chip).</p></li>\n <li><p>5nm process.</p></li>\n <li><p>16 billion transistors.</p></li>\n <li><p>3.2 GHZ max clock rate.</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>Incredible specs. And on top of that, there are two new models–the M1 Pro and M1 Max–that offer improvements on the base model. It would be tedious to list detailed spec sheets for these higher end models, but one eye-popping stat is the M1 Max’s 57 billion transistors. This competes with the CPUs included in extremely high end gaming PCs. And of course, that makes newer Macs themselves viable as gaming rigs, as countless&nbsp;YouTube reviewers have noted. Apple already has a sizable market share in laptops and desktops, but with the M1 chip family, it now has a shot at capturing the gaming segment as well. Until now, that market segment has proven elusive to Apple. So, there is significant potential for accelerating growth in Apple’s computer lineup.</p>\n<p>Next up is Apple services. This is a broad category that includes streaming music, movies, books and more. This category is always expanding and could potentially drive more growth after hardware growth slows down. In the most recent quarter, service growth actually&nbsp;lagged product growth, at 25% vs 30% for the latter. However, services are promising because they’re a category that could continue to grow even after hardware products reach their total addressable market. Global smartphone sales have been&nbsp;flat-lining after years of strong growth. In this environment, it would be unrealistic to expect Apple’s hardware sales to grow as fast as they did in the past. But by selling more services to existing customers, Apple can keep growing its total revenue even as hardware sales underwhelm.</p>\n<p><b>Financials and Valuation</b></p>\n<p>Now we can turn to Apple’s financials.</p>\n<p>Apple’s most recent quarter was a&nbsp;miss on both revenue and earnings; however, the results were strong in absolute terms. In the quarter, Apple delivered:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>$83 billion in revenue, up 29%.</p></li>\n <li><p>$27.3 billion in operating income, up 60%.</p></li>\n <li><p>$20.5 billion in net income, up 63%.</p></li>\n <li><p>$1.24 in diluted EPS, up 69%.</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>The company also reported $104 billion in TTM cash from operations in its fourth quarter report. That was up 28% from the year before.</p>\n<p>These were pretty solid results. Especially for a mature company. Apple is the biggest company in the world by market cap, yet its revenue and earnings are both up by growth stock levels. And this one quarter wasn’t a fluke. According to&nbsp;Seeking Alpha Quant, Apple’s five-year CAGR growth rates in the metrics listed above are:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>Revenue: 11%.</p></li>\n <li><p>Operating income: 12.7%.</p></li>\n <li><p>Net income: 15.7%.</p></li>\n <li><p>Diluted EPS: 22%.</p></li>\n <li><p>Cash flow: 10.7%.</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>Again very solid for a mature company. It does look like the most recent quarter was better than average, but the long-term metrics are still very good. Which gets to the heart of this article’s thesis:</p>\n<p>Apple is definitely not a bubble stock. Its valuation is fairly steep, as it trades at 30 times earnings, 7.7 times sales, and 26 times cash flow. But the company still has plenty of growth potential. Compounded annually, its earnings are growing at 22%, and as the most recent quarter showed, it has room for acceleration. If you factor in both growth and value, you get a&nbsp;PEG ratio of just 0.43&nbsp;for the trailing 12-month period. That’s far from a bubble valuation. In fact, it looks downright cheap.</p>\n<p><b>Risks and Challenges</b></p>\n<p>While Apple is definitely an ultra-profitable company with strong growth and a moderate valuation, its stock is not without its risks. As a major hardware company, it is vulnerable to supply chain issues, and other shocks. Some major risks and challenges to the bullish thesis outlined in this article include:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p><b>Supply chain issues.</b>The world is currently going through a chip shortage, as well as shortages of various other hi-tech parts. These problems are affecting Apple. Just recently, the company&nbsp;slashed iPhone production&nbsp;because of supply chain issues. That right before the crucial Holiday season, no less. These kinds of problems are an ever-present threat for a hardware company like Apple, which depends on a ready supply of raw materials to keep sales flowing.</p></li>\n <li><p><b>Scale.</b>Mathematically, the bigger something gets, the larger of an increase is needed to drive percentage gains equal to past ones. If you start selling $1,000 widgets and sell one your first year, you double your sales just by selling $2,000 worth the next year. If, however, ten years later, you’re selling $332 billion worth, you need customers to come up with $664 billion in the eleventh year to achieve the same growth. This is mathematically unlikely. And as it just so happens, Apple’s $83 billion Q4 revenue annualizes to $332 billion. So growth will be harder to achieve going forward.</p></li>\n <li><p><b>Disruption.</b>Apple’s business model requires that it stay on the leading edge of tech innovation. If another company comes out with something decisively superior to the iPhone, that could kill Apple’s business overnight. Apple itself&nbsp;did this once, to&nbsp;<b>BlackBerry</b>(BB), makers of the ill-fated BlackBerry Smartphone. The history of the tech industry is littered with companies eating each other's lunch, and while Apple has billions to spend on R&amp;D, you never know where the next threat will come from.</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>The above are some very real risks for investors to keep in mind. The supply chain risk, in particular, is very real, having been cited as a problem in several quarterly reports. With that said, Apple stock has an incredible moat, decent growth, and a not-unreasonable valuation. This is definitely not a stock to short. And while the gains realized by longs will not be as good in the future as they were in the past, they should still be decent.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Are there any bubbles in Apple stock?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAre there any bubbles in Apple stock?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-23 11:40 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476363-apple-stock-no-bubble><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nApple stock has risen 34% this year, beating the NASDAQ 100 by a wide margin.\nThis has led some to say that the stock is in a bubble, as its price is rising rapidly.\nHowever, Apple's stock ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476363-apple-stock-no-bubble\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476363-apple-stock-no-bubble","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164467804","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple stock has risen 34% this year, beating the NASDAQ 100 by a wide margin.\nThis has led some to say that the stock is in a bubble, as its price is rising rapidly.\nHowever, Apple's stock price gains are about in line with revenue growth, and actually slower than the most recent quarter's EPS growth.\nIn this article, I will develop a bullish thesis on Apple, arguing that it has a wide moat that will power future growth and profitability.\n\nJustin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nApple Inc.(AAPL) stock has delivered a solid performance in 2021. Up 35% for the year, it has solidly outperformed both the NASDAQ 100 and the S&P 500. The latest in a long streak of winning years for the company, Apple’s 2021 shows that a stock is never too big to beat the market.\nWith that said, there’s no shortage of people who think Apple’s winning run is due for a correction. In recent weeks, we’ve seen a deluge of articles claiming that AAPL is overvalued, with titles like:\n\n“Apple Stock is Now a Bubble.”\n“Why Apple Stock May Be a Bubble That’s Ready to Burst.”\n“Sell AAPL? Why This Expert Sees Apple Stock Dipping 12%”\n\nNot all of these articles have been unambiguously bearish. A few mention positives along with negatives. But generally speaking, the sentiment that Apple is a bubble, or at least overvalued, is becoming common. If you look at TipRanks’ sentiment chart, it shows decisively negative sentiment toward Apple stock.\nSource: TipRanks’ sentiment chart\nThe bearishness of investor sentiment toward Apple becomes clear when we compare it to the sentiment toward Meta Platforms(FB). Meta, a company that is being sued for antitrust violations and getting attacked in the press daily, has a nearly perfect sentiment score. So there is no special tech curse that guarantees negative sentiment toward individual stocks in the sector. Apple’s sentiment problem is indeed its own problem.\n\nWhich begs the question:\nWhy?\nApple is a wide-moat stock, one of the few tech companies that controls both hardware and software for most of its users. Many companies have attempted to copy Apple’s strategy of maximizing revenue by integrating hardware and apps, but few have succeeded at it. If you want the IOS or Mac OS experience, you need an iPhone or Mac. And billions of people want those experiences enough to pay top dollar for Apple’s products. Few other tech companies have that advantage – Nintendo(OTCPK:NTDOY) being one exception, if you count gaming as tech.\nThis makes Apple arguably a wide-moat stock. You need Apple hardware to run Apple software, and people like Apple software. This gives Apple a “monopoly” on a certain collection of software experiences. It does not have a monopoly on any particular device category, but it’s the only company that can provide the integrated Apple ecosystem.\nThis advantage has paid dividends to Apple shareholders – both figuratively and literally. Apple is the world’s biggest company by market cap and the fourth-biggest by revenue. Its revenue growth rate has slowed in recent years, but certain segments (such as watches and services) are growing faster than ever. It appears, then, that Apple still has the potential for significant profitability and growth. Accordingly, I’ll develop a bullish thesis on Apple in this article, arguing that its solid economic moat provides potential for its stock to appreciate in the future.\nCompetitive Landscape\nOne of the most important things to understand about Apple is its competitive position. The company operates in such a wide variety of different markets that it’s hard to pin down its business beyond simply “tech.” Technically, the company’s SIC Code (industry classification) is 7372, denoting “prepackaged software.” However, this doesn’t capture the full extent of Apple’s business activities, as it’s also involved in hardware, semiconductors,payments and entertainment.\nSome of Apple’s most noteworthy competitors include:\n\nSamsung(OTC:SSNLF) - smartphones.\nHuawei- smartphones.\nAlphabet(GOOG) - smartphones, laptops, and software.\nMicrosoft(MSFT) - laptops.\nDell(NYSE:DELL)- laptops.\nAdobe(ADBE) - creative software.\nAnd many more.\n\nA comprehensive list of Apple’s competitors would be impossible to come up with, because the company operates in so many different verticals. In addition to all the names above, Apple is arguably in competition with the big semi companies, as it sells phones and laptops with Apple chips. Apple is one of the most comprehensive tech companies around, with a massive lineup of hardware, software and services, putting it in tacit competition with dozens of companies.\nHow is Apple doing in the industries it competes in? According to Counterpoint Research and Statista, Apple’s market shares include:\n\nSmartphones: 47% in the US and 14% globally.\nLaptops: 15% in the US and 7.6% globally.\nSmartwatches: over 50% globally.\nTablets: 35% globally.\n\nOn the whole, Apple is in first or second place in most of its markets. It’s behind Samsung on smartphone sales but it leads in watches and tablets. This is a pretty good market position. And it could grow over time. Some of Apple’s product categories are still fairly new. The company only just recently broke into smart watches and sales in the category are growing at 50%. Apple has taken heat lately for its slowing growth, but certain products within the company’s lineup are growing faster than ever. This provides potential for strong growth well into the future.\nThe M1 Chip and Apple Services\nSpeaking of future growth, it’s worth exploring two of Apple’s most promising categories:\nThe M1 Chip and Apple Services.\nThe M1 Chip (really the M1 family of chips now) is a new chip designed by Apple based on ARM architecture. The base configuration boasts:\n\nAn 8-core CPU.\nA 7-core GPU.\n8 or 16 gigs of RAM (physically built into the chip).\n5nm process.\n16 billion transistors.\n3.2 GHZ max clock rate.\n\nIncredible specs. And on top of that, there are two new models–the M1 Pro and M1 Max–that offer improvements on the base model. It would be tedious to list detailed spec sheets for these higher end models, but one eye-popping stat is the M1 Max’s 57 billion transistors. This competes with the CPUs included in extremely high end gaming PCs. And of course, that makes newer Macs themselves viable as gaming rigs, as countless YouTube reviewers have noted. Apple already has a sizable market share in laptops and desktops, but with the M1 chip family, it now has a shot at capturing the gaming segment as well. Until now, that market segment has proven elusive to Apple. So, there is significant potential for accelerating growth in Apple’s computer lineup.\nNext up is Apple services. This is a broad category that includes streaming music, movies, books and more. This category is always expanding and could potentially drive more growth after hardware growth slows down. In the most recent quarter, service growth actually lagged product growth, at 25% vs 30% for the latter. However, services are promising because they’re a category that could continue to grow even after hardware products reach their total addressable market. Global smartphone sales have been flat-lining after years of strong growth. In this environment, it would be unrealistic to expect Apple’s hardware sales to grow as fast as they did in the past. But by selling more services to existing customers, Apple can keep growing its total revenue even as hardware sales underwhelm.\nFinancials and Valuation\nNow we can turn to Apple’s financials.\nApple’s most recent quarter was a miss on both revenue and earnings; however, the results were strong in absolute terms. In the quarter, Apple delivered:\n\n$83 billion in revenue, up 29%.\n$27.3 billion in operating income, up 60%.\n$20.5 billion in net income, up 63%.\n$1.24 in diluted EPS, up 69%.\n\nThe company also reported $104 billion in TTM cash from operations in its fourth quarter report. That was up 28% from the year before.\nThese were pretty solid results. Especially for a mature company. Apple is the biggest company in the world by market cap, yet its revenue and earnings are both up by growth stock levels. And this one quarter wasn’t a fluke. According to Seeking Alpha Quant, Apple’s five-year CAGR growth rates in the metrics listed above are:\n\nRevenue: 11%.\nOperating income: 12.7%.\nNet income: 15.7%.\nDiluted EPS: 22%.\nCash flow: 10.7%.\n\nAgain very solid for a mature company. It does look like the most recent quarter was better than average, but the long-term metrics are still very good. Which gets to the heart of this article’s thesis:\nApple is definitely not a bubble stock. Its valuation is fairly steep, as it trades at 30 times earnings, 7.7 times sales, and 26 times cash flow. But the company still has plenty of growth potential. Compounded annually, its earnings are growing at 22%, and as the most recent quarter showed, it has room for acceleration. If you factor in both growth and value, you get a PEG ratio of just 0.43 for the trailing 12-month period. That’s far from a bubble valuation. In fact, it looks downright cheap.\nRisks and Challenges\nWhile Apple is definitely an ultra-profitable company with strong growth and a moderate valuation, its stock is not without its risks. As a major hardware company, it is vulnerable to supply chain issues, and other shocks. Some major risks and challenges to the bullish thesis outlined in this article include:\n\nSupply chain issues.The world is currently going through a chip shortage, as well as shortages of various other hi-tech parts. These problems are affecting Apple. Just recently, the company slashed iPhone production because of supply chain issues. That right before the crucial Holiday season, no less. These kinds of problems are an ever-present threat for a hardware company like Apple, which depends on a ready supply of raw materials to keep sales flowing.\nScale.Mathematically, the bigger something gets, the larger of an increase is needed to drive percentage gains equal to past ones. If you start selling $1,000 widgets and sell one your first year, you double your sales just by selling $2,000 worth the next year. If, however, ten years later, you’re selling $332 billion worth, you need customers to come up with $664 billion in the eleventh year to achieve the same growth. This is mathematically unlikely. And as it just so happens, Apple’s $83 billion Q4 revenue annualizes to $332 billion. So growth will be harder to achieve going forward.\nDisruption.Apple’s business model requires that it stay on the leading edge of tech innovation. If another company comes out with something decisively superior to the iPhone, that could kill Apple’s business overnight. Apple itself did this once, to BlackBerry(BB), makers of the ill-fated BlackBerry Smartphone. The history of the tech industry is littered with companies eating each other's lunch, and while Apple has billions to spend on R&D, you never know where the next threat will come from.\n\nThe above are some very real risks for investors to keep in mind. The supply chain risk, in particular, is very real, having been cited as a problem in several quarterly reports. With that said, Apple stock has an incredible moat, decent growth, and a not-unreasonable valuation. This is definitely not a stock to short. And while the gains realized by longs will not be as good in the future as they were in the past, they should still be decent.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":334,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":696866470,"gmtCreate":1640664508226,"gmtModify":1640664508294,"author":{"id":"4099529441829710","authorId":"4099529441829710","name":"Ethan Ooi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4582faaea3eeb3a8816269a8ac4f567b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099529441829710","authorIdStr":"4099529441829710"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"This is short summary to know about Rivian this new rival of EV stock","listText":"This is short summary to know about Rivian this new rival of EV stock","text":"This is short summary to know about Rivian this new rival of EV stock","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696866470","repostId":"1155676290","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155676290","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640662411,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1155676290?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-28 11:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Rivian's First Earnings Report Looks Like Tesla's Early Days, But Here's What's Different","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155676290","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"On Dec. 16, high-end electric pickup and SUV maker Rivian Automotive(NASDAQ:RIVN)reported its first-","content":"<p>On Dec. 16, high-end electric pickup and SUV maker&nbsp;<b>Rivian Automotive</b>(NASDAQ:RIVN)reported its first-ever quarterly results since going public through its recent IPO. The company delivered 11 electric vehicles (EVs) in total during the third quarter of 2021, bringing in approximately $1 million in revenue. Meanwhile, its market capitalization (market cap) was a princely $100 billion at the time of the quarterly release. Overall, the company looks a lot like&nbsp;<b>Tesla</b>(NASDAQ:TSLA)shortly after it went public, but there are some key differences sounding a note of caution.</p>\n<p><b>Rivian is a mirror of Tesla in some ways</b></p>\n<p>Once investors got a look at Rivian's Q3 earnings report,its share price dropped sharply, bringing its market cap down from $100 billion to a pre-Christmas level of $88 billion. Some analysts have been looking at Rivian's current position and arguing that it's quite similar to Tesla's at the start of its own upward climb. That was when Elon Musk's company also had scant revenue and little more than a few vehicle models and projections of future production to give it stock market traction.</p>\n<p>According to Rivian management's letter to shareholders, the company earned just $1 million in revenue during the three months ending on Sept. 30. Its net loss for the period was $1.23 billion, though $458 million of this was a net loss due to convertible notes. This led to a $12.21 net loss per share, far worse than Wall Street analyst consensus predictions of a $6.68 loss per share. Omitting the convertible notes, the company's quarterly net loss was $776 million.</p>\n<p>While current production is only a handful of vehicles, Rivian is looking to the future as a cause for optimism. It ended the quarter with $5.2 billion in cash; together with the net proceeds from its $13.7 billion in gross IPO proceeds and other, smaller funding sources, says it has around $19.9 billion to work with in achieving its goals. Those goals include boosting its Illinois factory's manufacturing capacity from 150,000 to 200,000 vehicles annually, along with building a second factory in Georgia with a 400,000-vehicle manufacturing capacity, to begin operating in 2024.</p>\n<p>These metrics and goals appear attractive, but at this point, they are mostly speculation. Rivian has 71,000 pre-orders for its R1T pickup truck, but it only has a tiny handful of vehicles actually on the road. Going from producing 11 vehicles in a quarter to, theoretically, 150,000 per quarter (based on Rivian's factory estimates) in just three years is a steep challenge even with around $20 billion available to fund it. While the sum is almost two-thirds of the amount automotive giant&nbsp;<b>Ford</b>(NYSE:F)is spending on its own EV production, the Blue Oval has been an established automaker for over a century, giving it deep levels of knowledge on mass production and immense resources of machinery, technical staff, and name recognition among consumers around the globe.</p>\n<p>Rivian may also have lost Ford's technical assistance after the latter decided to \"go it alone\" on its EV program in November, canceling its joint EV production plans with Rivian. Another serious roadblock Rivian will have to overcome is the very different environment it faces as an EV start-up compared to Tesla a decade ago.</p>\n<p><b>Where Rivian's road forks away from Tesla's</b></p>\n<p>While Rivian's current metrics look rather like Tesla's early days except for its massive valuation, it isn't operating in the same environment. Though hybrid vehicles existed well before it, and EVs had been tried, Tesla was a groundbreaking enterprise, the first of its kind.</p>\n<p>Rivian is operating in a very different world. Tesla itself is now a dominating force with a market cap above $1 trillion, manufacturing around a million very popular EVs per year. Ford recently&nbsp;stopped accepting reservations for its upcoming F-150 Lightningelectric pickup at 200,000 trucks&nbsp;because production couldn't keep up with demand. It's also building $30 billion worth of EV and EV battery facilities by 2025 for a massive manufacturing expansion.</p>\n<p>Chinese EV manufacturer&nbsp;<b>Nio</b>(NYSE:NIO)just unveiled a mid-sized electric sedan, the ET5, capable of challenging the Tesla Model S Plaid on range and features, and it plans to expand into 25 countries over the next few years. It's also now consistently building more than 10,000 vehicles per month. Just about every major automaker in the world is in the process of rolling out electric vehicles, and there are many other dedicated EV start-ups to contend with, too.</p>\n<p>In short, while Rivian resembles early Tesla, Tesla was operating with close-to-zero serious competition, giving it much more leeway as a pioneer. Rivian, by contrast, is trying to break into an EV market already crowded with successful rivals, who are busy expanding production into the hundreds of thousands and then millions, while Rivian is still trying to get its first few vehicles sold.</p>\n<p>On the plus side, Rivian does at least produce working vehicles and has&nbsp;preorders for 71,000 R1T pickup trucks.&nbsp;Retail titan&nbsp;<b>Amazon</b>(NASDAQ:AMZN)is working with it to buy a potential 100,000 delivery vans. Actually producing these vehicles could be a problem, however, considering that Ford may no longer be a manufacturing partner. In a recent CNBC interview, Ford CEO Jim Farley said Ford is considering&nbsp;selling its 12% stake in Rivianonce lock-up expires, gaining billions it can return to shareholders or invest in its own rapidly accelerating EV push.</p>\n<p><b>Buy Rivian now, or await a lower entry point?</b></p>\n<p>Orders and sheer market enthusiasm for all EV stocks are arguably the two main factors holding Rivian's share price relatively high right now. Nevertheless, in my opinion, the hurdles and risks it faces in maintaining or growing this valuation are quite high. The challenges of ramping up production (possibly without Ford's know-how and assistance), the numerous powerful competitors it faces, and the likelihood Ford will sell its Rivian stake, make me skeptical it will maintain its current stock value much longer.</p>\n<p>Rivian may become a viable&nbsp;electric car stock&nbsp;long-term, but it seems likely to shed a lot of its current soaring valuation in the meantime. This scenario makes waiting for a much lower share price as an entry point a strategy at least worth considering.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rivian's First Earnings Report Looks Like Tesla's Early Days, But Here's What's Different</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRivian's First Earnings Report Looks Like Tesla's Early Days, But Here's What's Different\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-28 11:33 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/27/rivian-earnings-report-looks-like-tesla-early-days/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>On Dec. 16, high-end electric pickup and SUV maker Rivian Automotive(NASDAQ:RIVN)reported its first-ever quarterly results since going public through its recent IPO. The company delivered 11 electric ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/27/rivian-earnings-report-looks-like-tesla-early-days/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/27/rivian-earnings-report-looks-like-tesla-early-days/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155676290","content_text":"On Dec. 16, high-end electric pickup and SUV maker Rivian Automotive(NASDAQ:RIVN)reported its first-ever quarterly results since going public through its recent IPO. The company delivered 11 electric vehicles (EVs) in total during the third quarter of 2021, bringing in approximately $1 million in revenue. Meanwhile, its market capitalization (market cap) was a princely $100 billion at the time of the quarterly release. Overall, the company looks a lot like Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)shortly after it went public, but there are some key differences sounding a note of caution.\nRivian is a mirror of Tesla in some ways\nOnce investors got a look at Rivian's Q3 earnings report,its share price dropped sharply, bringing its market cap down from $100 billion to a pre-Christmas level of $88 billion. Some analysts have been looking at Rivian's current position and arguing that it's quite similar to Tesla's at the start of its own upward climb. That was when Elon Musk's company also had scant revenue and little more than a few vehicle models and projections of future production to give it stock market traction.\nAccording to Rivian management's letter to shareholders, the company earned just $1 million in revenue during the three months ending on Sept. 30. Its net loss for the period was $1.23 billion, though $458 million of this was a net loss due to convertible notes. This led to a $12.21 net loss per share, far worse than Wall Street analyst consensus predictions of a $6.68 loss per share. Omitting the convertible notes, the company's quarterly net loss was $776 million.\nWhile current production is only a handful of vehicles, Rivian is looking to the future as a cause for optimism. It ended the quarter with $5.2 billion in cash; together with the net proceeds from its $13.7 billion in gross IPO proceeds and other, smaller funding sources, says it has around $19.9 billion to work with in achieving its goals. Those goals include boosting its Illinois factory's manufacturing capacity from 150,000 to 200,000 vehicles annually, along with building a second factory in Georgia with a 400,000-vehicle manufacturing capacity, to begin operating in 2024.\nThese metrics and goals appear attractive, but at this point, they are mostly speculation. Rivian has 71,000 pre-orders for its R1T pickup truck, but it only has a tiny handful of vehicles actually on the road. Going from producing 11 vehicles in a quarter to, theoretically, 150,000 per quarter (based on Rivian's factory estimates) in just three years is a steep challenge even with around $20 billion available to fund it. While the sum is almost two-thirds of the amount automotive giant Ford(NYSE:F)is spending on its own EV production, the Blue Oval has been an established automaker for over a century, giving it deep levels of knowledge on mass production and immense resources of machinery, technical staff, and name recognition among consumers around the globe.\nRivian may also have lost Ford's technical assistance after the latter decided to \"go it alone\" on its EV program in November, canceling its joint EV production plans with Rivian. Another serious roadblock Rivian will have to overcome is the very different environment it faces as an EV start-up compared to Tesla a decade ago.\nWhere Rivian's road forks away from Tesla's\nWhile Rivian's current metrics look rather like Tesla's early days except for its massive valuation, it isn't operating in the same environment. Though hybrid vehicles existed well before it, and EVs had been tried, Tesla was a groundbreaking enterprise, the first of its kind.\nRivian is operating in a very different world. Tesla itself is now a dominating force with a market cap above $1 trillion, manufacturing around a million very popular EVs per year. Ford recently stopped accepting reservations for its upcoming F-150 Lightningelectric pickup at 200,000 trucks because production couldn't keep up with demand. It's also building $30 billion worth of EV and EV battery facilities by 2025 for a massive manufacturing expansion.\nChinese EV manufacturer Nio(NYSE:NIO)just unveiled a mid-sized electric sedan, the ET5, capable of challenging the Tesla Model S Plaid on range and features, and it plans to expand into 25 countries over the next few years. It's also now consistently building more than 10,000 vehicles per month. Just about every major automaker in the world is in the process of rolling out electric vehicles, and there are many other dedicated EV start-ups to contend with, too.\nIn short, while Rivian resembles early Tesla, Tesla was operating with close-to-zero serious competition, giving it much more leeway as a pioneer. Rivian, by contrast, is trying to break into an EV market already crowded with successful rivals, who are busy expanding production into the hundreds of thousands and then millions, while Rivian is still trying to get its first few vehicles sold.\nOn the plus side, Rivian does at least produce working vehicles and has preorders for 71,000 R1T pickup trucks. Retail titan Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)is working with it to buy a potential 100,000 delivery vans. Actually producing these vehicles could be a problem, however, considering that Ford may no longer be a manufacturing partner. In a recent CNBC interview, Ford CEO Jim Farley said Ford is considering selling its 12% stake in Rivianonce lock-up expires, gaining billions it can return to shareholders or invest in its own rapidly accelerating EV push.\nBuy Rivian now, or await a lower entry point?\nOrders and sheer market enthusiasm for all EV stocks are arguably the two main factors holding Rivian's share price relatively high right now. Nevertheless, in my opinion, the hurdles and risks it faces in maintaining or growing this valuation are quite high. The challenges of ramping up production (possibly without Ford's know-how and assistance), the numerous powerful competitors it faces, and the likelihood Ford will sell its Rivian stake, make me skeptical it will maintain its current stock value much longer.\nRivian may become a viable electric car stock long-term, but it seems likely to shed a lot of its current soaring valuation in the meantime. This scenario makes waiting for a much lower share price as an entry point a strategy at least worth considering.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RIVN":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":188,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":691444564,"gmtCreate":1640233573793,"gmtModify":1640233573853,"author":{"id":"4099529441829710","authorId":"4099529441829710","name":"Ethan Ooi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4582faaea3eeb3a8816269a8ac4f567b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099529441829710","authorIdStr":"4099529441829710"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691444564","repostId":"1164467804","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1164467804","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640230809,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1164467804?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-23 11:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Are there any bubbles in Apple stock?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164467804","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Apple stock has risen 34% this year, beating the NASDAQ 100 by a wide margin.This has led some to say that the stock is in a bubble, as its price is rising rapidly.However, Apple's stock price gains are about in line with revenue growth, and actually slower than the most recent quarter's EPS growth.In this article, I will develop a bullish thesis on Apple, arguing that it has a wide moat that will power future growth and profitability.Apple Inc. stock has delivered a solid performance in 2021. U","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Apple stock has risen 34% this year, beating the NASDAQ 100 by a wide margin.</li>\n <li>This has led some to say that the stock is in a bubble, as its price is rising rapidly.</li>\n <li>However, Apple's stock price gains are about in line with revenue growth, and actually slower than the most recent quarter's EPS growth.</li>\n <li>In this article, I will develop a bullish thesis on Apple, arguing that it has a wide moat that will power future growth and profitability.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e9d29c6db997dd98e087415e7e2acfe\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1036\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News</span></p>\n<p><b>Apple Inc.</b>(AAPL) stock has delivered a solid performance in 2021. Up 35% for the year, it has solidly outperformed both the NASDAQ 100 and the S&amp;P 500. The latest in a long streak of winning years for the company, Apple’s 2021 shows that a stock is never too big to beat the market.</p>\n<p>With that said, there’s no shortage of people who think Apple’s winning run is due for a correction. In recent weeks, we’ve seen a deluge of articles claiming that AAPL is overvalued, with titles like:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p><i>“Apple Stock is Now a Bubble.”</i></p></li>\n <li><p><i>“Why Apple Stock May Be a Bubble That’s Ready to Burst.”</i></p></li>\n <li><p><i>“Sell AAPL? Why This Expert Sees Apple Stock Dipping 12%”</i></p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>Not all of these articles have been unambiguously bearish. A few mention positives along with negatives. But generally speaking, the sentiment that Apple is a bubble, or at least overvalued, is becoming common. If you look at&nbsp;TipRanks’ sentiment chart, it shows decisively negative sentiment toward Apple stock.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce8357bc3eaf626336dbf12b2ff1f410\" tg-width=\"485\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: TipRanks’ sentiment chart</span></p>\n<p>The bearishness of investor sentiment toward Apple becomes clear when we compare it to the sentiment toward&nbsp;<b>Meta Platforms</b>(FB). Meta, a company that is being sued for antitrust violations and getting attacked in the press daily, has a nearly perfect sentiment score. So there is no special tech curse that guarantees negative sentiment toward individual stocks in the sector. Apple’s sentiment problem is indeed its own problem.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68bc8cf3f8fc200c2b7a9c85e69cc9f2\" tg-width=\"488\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Which begs the question:</p>\n<p><i>Why?</i></p>\n<p>Apple is a wide-moat stock, one of the few tech companies that controls both hardware and software for most of its users. Many companies have attempted to copy Apple’s strategy of maximizing revenue by integrating hardware and apps, but few have succeeded at it. If you want the IOS or Mac OS experience, you need an iPhone or Mac. And billions of people want those experiences enough to pay top dollar for Apple’s products. Few other tech companies have that advantage –&nbsp;<b>Nintendo</b>(OTCPK:NTDOY) being one exception, if you count gaming as tech.</p>\n<p>This makes Apple arguably a&nbsp;wide-moat stock. You need Apple hardware to run Apple software, and people like Apple software. This gives Apple a “monopoly” on a certain collection of software experiences. It does not have a monopoly on any particular device category, but it’s the only company that can provide the integrated&nbsp;Apple ecosystem.</p>\n<p>This advantage has paid dividends to Apple shareholders – both figuratively and literally. Apple is the world’s biggest company by market cap and the&nbsp;fourth-biggest by revenue. Its revenue growth rate has slowed in recent years, but certain segments (such as watches and services) are growing faster than ever. It appears, then, that Apple still has the potential for significant profitability and growth. Accordingly, I’ll develop a bullish thesis on Apple in this article, arguing that its solid economic moat provides potential for its stock to appreciate in the future.</p>\n<p><b>Competitive Landscape</b></p>\n<p>One of the most important things to understand about Apple is its competitive position. The company operates in such a wide variety of different markets that it’s hard to pin down its business beyond simply “tech.” Technically, the company’s SIC Code (industry classification) is 7372, denoting “prepackaged software.” However, this doesn’t capture the full extent of Apple’s business activities, as it’s also involved in hardware, semiconductors,payments&nbsp;and entertainment.</p>\n<p>Some of Apple’s most noteworthy competitors include:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p><b>Samsung</b>(OTC:SSNLF) - smartphones.</p></li>\n <li><p><b>Huawei</b>- smartphones.</p></li>\n <li><p><b>Alphabet</b>(GOOG) - smartphones, laptops, and software.</p></li>\n <li><p><b>Microsoft</b>(MSFT) - laptops.</p></li>\n <li><p><b>Dell</b>(NYSE:DELL)- laptops.</p></li>\n <li><p><b>Adobe</b>(ADBE) - creative software.</p></li>\n <li><p>And many more.</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>A comprehensive list of Apple’s competitors would be impossible to come up with, because the company operates in so many different verticals. In addition to all the names above, Apple is arguably in competition with the big semi companies, as it sells phones and laptops with Apple chips. Apple is one of the most comprehensive tech companies around, with a massive lineup of hardware, software and services, putting it in tacit competition with dozens of companies.</p>\n<p>How is Apple doing in the industries it competes in? According to&nbsp;Counterpoint Research&nbsp;and Statista, Apple’s market shares include:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>Smartphones: 47% in the US and 14% globally.</p></li>\n <li><p>Laptops: 15% in the US and 7.6% globally.</p></li>\n <li><p>Smartwatches: over 50% globally.</p></li>\n <li><p>Tablets: 35% globally.</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>On the whole, Apple is in first or second place in most of its markets. It’s behind Samsung on smartphone sales but it leads in watches and tablets. This is a pretty good market position. And it could grow over time. Some of Apple’s product categories are still fairly new. The company only just recently broke into smart watches and&nbsp;sales in the category are growing at 50%. Apple has taken heat lately for its slowing growth, but certain products within the company’s lineup are growing faster than ever. This provides potential for strong growth well into the future.</p>\n<p><b>The M1 Chip and Apple Services</b></p>\n<p>Speaking of future growth, it’s worth exploring two of Apple’s most promising categories:</p>\n<p><i>The M1 Chip and Apple Services.</i></p>\n<p>The M1 Chip (really the M1 family of chips now) is a new chip designed by Apple based on ARM architecture. The base configuration boasts:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>An 8-core CPU.</p></li>\n <li><p>A 7-core GPU.</p></li>\n <li><p>8 or 16 gigs of RAM (physically built into the chip).</p></li>\n <li><p>5nm process.</p></li>\n <li><p>16 billion transistors.</p></li>\n <li><p>3.2 GHZ max clock rate.</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>Incredible specs. And on top of that, there are two new models–the M1 Pro and M1 Max–that offer improvements on the base model. It would be tedious to list detailed spec sheets for these higher end models, but one eye-popping stat is the M1 Max’s 57 billion transistors. This competes with the CPUs included in extremely high end gaming PCs. And of course, that makes newer Macs themselves viable as gaming rigs, as countless&nbsp;YouTube reviewers have noted. Apple already has a sizable market share in laptops and desktops, but with the M1 chip family, it now has a shot at capturing the gaming segment as well. Until now, that market segment has proven elusive to Apple. So, there is significant potential for accelerating growth in Apple’s computer lineup.</p>\n<p>Next up is Apple services. This is a broad category that includes streaming music, movies, books and more. This category is always expanding and could potentially drive more growth after hardware growth slows down. In the most recent quarter, service growth actually&nbsp;lagged product growth, at 25% vs 30% for the latter. However, services are promising because they’re a category that could continue to grow even after hardware products reach their total addressable market. Global smartphone sales have been&nbsp;flat-lining after years of strong growth. In this environment, it would be unrealistic to expect Apple’s hardware sales to grow as fast as they did in the past. But by selling more services to existing customers, Apple can keep growing its total revenue even as hardware sales underwhelm.</p>\n<p><b>Financials and Valuation</b></p>\n<p>Now we can turn to Apple’s financials.</p>\n<p>Apple’s most recent quarter was a&nbsp;miss on both revenue and earnings; however, the results were strong in absolute terms. In the quarter, Apple delivered:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>$83 billion in revenue, up 29%.</p></li>\n <li><p>$27.3 billion in operating income, up 60%.</p></li>\n <li><p>$20.5 billion in net income, up 63%.</p></li>\n <li><p>$1.24 in diluted EPS, up 69%.</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>The company also reported $104 billion in TTM cash from operations in its fourth quarter report. That was up 28% from the year before.</p>\n<p>These were pretty solid results. Especially for a mature company. Apple is the biggest company in the world by market cap, yet its revenue and earnings are both up by growth stock levels. And this one quarter wasn’t a fluke. According to&nbsp;Seeking Alpha Quant, Apple’s five-year CAGR growth rates in the metrics listed above are:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>Revenue: 11%.</p></li>\n <li><p>Operating income: 12.7%.</p></li>\n <li><p>Net income: 15.7%.</p></li>\n <li><p>Diluted EPS: 22%.</p></li>\n <li><p>Cash flow: 10.7%.</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>Again very solid for a mature company. It does look like the most recent quarter was better than average, but the long-term metrics are still very good. Which gets to the heart of this article’s thesis:</p>\n<p>Apple is definitely not a bubble stock. Its valuation is fairly steep, as it trades at 30 times earnings, 7.7 times sales, and 26 times cash flow. But the company still has plenty of growth potential. Compounded annually, its earnings are growing at 22%, and as the most recent quarter showed, it has room for acceleration. If you factor in both growth and value, you get a&nbsp;PEG ratio of just 0.43&nbsp;for the trailing 12-month period. That’s far from a bubble valuation. In fact, it looks downright cheap.</p>\n<p><b>Risks and Challenges</b></p>\n<p>While Apple is definitely an ultra-profitable company with strong growth and a moderate valuation, its stock is not without its risks. As a major hardware company, it is vulnerable to supply chain issues, and other shocks. Some major risks and challenges to the bullish thesis outlined in this article include:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p><b>Supply chain issues.</b>The world is currently going through a chip shortage, as well as shortages of various other hi-tech parts. These problems are affecting Apple. Just recently, the company&nbsp;slashed iPhone production&nbsp;because of supply chain issues. That right before the crucial Holiday season, no less. These kinds of problems are an ever-present threat for a hardware company like Apple, which depends on a ready supply of raw materials to keep sales flowing.</p></li>\n <li><p><b>Scale.</b>Mathematically, the bigger something gets, the larger of an increase is needed to drive percentage gains equal to past ones. If you start selling $1,000 widgets and sell one your first year, you double your sales just by selling $2,000 worth the next year. If, however, ten years later, you’re selling $332 billion worth, you need customers to come up with $664 billion in the eleventh year to achieve the same growth. This is mathematically unlikely. And as it just so happens, Apple’s $83 billion Q4 revenue annualizes to $332 billion. So growth will be harder to achieve going forward.</p></li>\n <li><p><b>Disruption.</b>Apple’s business model requires that it stay on the leading edge of tech innovation. If another company comes out with something decisively superior to the iPhone, that could kill Apple’s business overnight. Apple itself&nbsp;did this once, to&nbsp;<b>BlackBerry</b>(BB), makers of the ill-fated BlackBerry Smartphone. The history of the tech industry is littered with companies eating each other's lunch, and while Apple has billions to spend on R&amp;D, you never know where the next threat will come from.</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>The above are some very real risks for investors to keep in mind. The supply chain risk, in particular, is very real, having been cited as a problem in several quarterly reports. With that said, Apple stock has an incredible moat, decent growth, and a not-unreasonable valuation. This is definitely not a stock to short. And while the gains realized by longs will not be as good in the future as they were in the past, they should still be decent.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Are there any bubbles in Apple stock?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAre there any bubbles in Apple stock?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-23 11:40 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476363-apple-stock-no-bubble><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nApple stock has risen 34% this year, beating the NASDAQ 100 by a wide margin.\nThis has led some to say that the stock is in a bubble, as its price is rising rapidly.\nHowever, Apple's stock ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476363-apple-stock-no-bubble\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476363-apple-stock-no-bubble","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164467804","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple stock has risen 34% this year, beating the NASDAQ 100 by a wide margin.\nThis has led some to say that the stock is in a bubble, as its price is rising rapidly.\nHowever, Apple's stock price gains are about in line with revenue growth, and actually slower than the most recent quarter's EPS growth.\nIn this article, I will develop a bullish thesis on Apple, arguing that it has a wide moat that will power future growth and profitability.\n\nJustin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nApple Inc.(AAPL) stock has delivered a solid performance in 2021. Up 35% for the year, it has solidly outperformed both the NASDAQ 100 and the S&P 500. The latest in a long streak of winning years for the company, Apple’s 2021 shows that a stock is never too big to beat the market.\nWith that said, there’s no shortage of people who think Apple’s winning run is due for a correction. In recent weeks, we’ve seen a deluge of articles claiming that AAPL is overvalued, with titles like:\n\n“Apple Stock is Now a Bubble.”\n“Why Apple Stock May Be a Bubble That’s Ready to Burst.”\n“Sell AAPL? Why This Expert Sees Apple Stock Dipping 12%”\n\nNot all of these articles have been unambiguously bearish. A few mention positives along with negatives. But generally speaking, the sentiment that Apple is a bubble, or at least overvalued, is becoming common. If you look at TipRanks’ sentiment chart, it shows decisively negative sentiment toward Apple stock.\nSource: TipRanks’ sentiment chart\nThe bearishness of investor sentiment toward Apple becomes clear when we compare it to the sentiment toward Meta Platforms(FB). Meta, a company that is being sued for antitrust violations and getting attacked in the press daily, has a nearly perfect sentiment score. So there is no special tech curse that guarantees negative sentiment toward individual stocks in the sector. Apple’s sentiment problem is indeed its own problem.\n\nWhich begs the question:\nWhy?\nApple is a wide-moat stock, one of the few tech companies that controls both hardware and software for most of its users. Many companies have attempted to copy Apple’s strategy of maximizing revenue by integrating hardware and apps, but few have succeeded at it. If you want the IOS or Mac OS experience, you need an iPhone or Mac. And billions of people want those experiences enough to pay top dollar for Apple’s products. Few other tech companies have that advantage – Nintendo(OTCPK:NTDOY) being one exception, if you count gaming as tech.\nThis makes Apple arguably a wide-moat stock. You need Apple hardware to run Apple software, and people like Apple software. This gives Apple a “monopoly” on a certain collection of software experiences. It does not have a monopoly on any particular device category, but it’s the only company that can provide the integrated Apple ecosystem.\nThis advantage has paid dividends to Apple shareholders – both figuratively and literally. Apple is the world’s biggest company by market cap and the fourth-biggest by revenue. Its revenue growth rate has slowed in recent years, but certain segments (such as watches and services) are growing faster than ever. It appears, then, that Apple still has the potential for significant profitability and growth. Accordingly, I’ll develop a bullish thesis on Apple in this article, arguing that its solid economic moat provides potential for its stock to appreciate in the future.\nCompetitive Landscape\nOne of the most important things to understand about Apple is its competitive position. The company operates in such a wide variety of different markets that it’s hard to pin down its business beyond simply “tech.” Technically, the company’s SIC Code (industry classification) is 7372, denoting “prepackaged software.” However, this doesn’t capture the full extent of Apple’s business activities, as it’s also involved in hardware, semiconductors,payments and entertainment.\nSome of Apple’s most noteworthy competitors include:\n\nSamsung(OTC:SSNLF) - smartphones.\nHuawei- smartphones.\nAlphabet(GOOG) - smartphones, laptops, and software.\nMicrosoft(MSFT) - laptops.\nDell(NYSE:DELL)- laptops.\nAdobe(ADBE) - creative software.\nAnd many more.\n\nA comprehensive list of Apple’s competitors would be impossible to come up with, because the company operates in so many different verticals. In addition to all the names above, Apple is arguably in competition with the big semi companies, as it sells phones and laptops with Apple chips. Apple is one of the most comprehensive tech companies around, with a massive lineup of hardware, software and services, putting it in tacit competition with dozens of companies.\nHow is Apple doing in the industries it competes in? According to Counterpoint Research and Statista, Apple’s market shares include:\n\nSmartphones: 47% in the US and 14% globally.\nLaptops: 15% in the US and 7.6% globally.\nSmartwatches: over 50% globally.\nTablets: 35% globally.\n\nOn the whole, Apple is in first or second place in most of its markets. It’s behind Samsung on smartphone sales but it leads in watches and tablets. This is a pretty good market position. And it could grow over time. Some of Apple’s product categories are still fairly new. The company only just recently broke into smart watches and sales in the category are growing at 50%. Apple has taken heat lately for its slowing growth, but certain products within the company’s lineup are growing faster than ever. This provides potential for strong growth well into the future.\nThe M1 Chip and Apple Services\nSpeaking of future growth, it’s worth exploring two of Apple’s most promising categories:\nThe M1 Chip and Apple Services.\nThe M1 Chip (really the M1 family of chips now) is a new chip designed by Apple based on ARM architecture. The base configuration boasts:\n\nAn 8-core CPU.\nA 7-core GPU.\n8 or 16 gigs of RAM (physically built into the chip).\n5nm process.\n16 billion transistors.\n3.2 GHZ max clock rate.\n\nIncredible specs. And on top of that, there are two new models–the M1 Pro and M1 Max–that offer improvements on the base model. It would be tedious to list detailed spec sheets for these higher end models, but one eye-popping stat is the M1 Max’s 57 billion transistors. This competes with the CPUs included in extremely high end gaming PCs. And of course, that makes newer Macs themselves viable as gaming rigs, as countless YouTube reviewers have noted. Apple already has a sizable market share in laptops and desktops, but with the M1 chip family, it now has a shot at capturing the gaming segment as well. Until now, that market segment has proven elusive to Apple. So, there is significant potential for accelerating growth in Apple’s computer lineup.\nNext up is Apple services. This is a broad category that includes streaming music, movies, books and more. This category is always expanding and could potentially drive more growth after hardware growth slows down. In the most recent quarter, service growth actually lagged product growth, at 25% vs 30% for the latter. However, services are promising because they’re a category that could continue to grow even after hardware products reach their total addressable market. Global smartphone sales have been flat-lining after years of strong growth. In this environment, it would be unrealistic to expect Apple’s hardware sales to grow as fast as they did in the past. But by selling more services to existing customers, Apple can keep growing its total revenue even as hardware sales underwhelm.\nFinancials and Valuation\nNow we can turn to Apple’s financials.\nApple’s most recent quarter was a miss on both revenue and earnings; however, the results were strong in absolute terms. In the quarter, Apple delivered:\n\n$83 billion in revenue, up 29%.\n$27.3 billion in operating income, up 60%.\n$20.5 billion in net income, up 63%.\n$1.24 in diluted EPS, up 69%.\n\nThe company also reported $104 billion in TTM cash from operations in its fourth quarter report. That was up 28% from the year before.\nThese were pretty solid results. Especially for a mature company. Apple is the biggest company in the world by market cap, yet its revenue and earnings are both up by growth stock levels. And this one quarter wasn’t a fluke. According to Seeking Alpha Quant, Apple’s five-year CAGR growth rates in the metrics listed above are:\n\nRevenue: 11%.\nOperating income: 12.7%.\nNet income: 15.7%.\nDiluted EPS: 22%.\nCash flow: 10.7%.\n\nAgain very solid for a mature company. It does look like the most recent quarter was better than average, but the long-term metrics are still very good. Which gets to the heart of this article’s thesis:\nApple is definitely not a bubble stock. Its valuation is fairly steep, as it trades at 30 times earnings, 7.7 times sales, and 26 times cash flow. But the company still has plenty of growth potential. Compounded annually, its earnings are growing at 22%, and as the most recent quarter showed, it has room for acceleration. If you factor in both growth and value, you get a PEG ratio of just 0.43 for the trailing 12-month period. That’s far from a bubble valuation. In fact, it looks downright cheap.\nRisks and Challenges\nWhile Apple is definitely an ultra-profitable company with strong growth and a moderate valuation, its stock is not without its risks. As a major hardware company, it is vulnerable to supply chain issues, and other shocks. Some major risks and challenges to the bullish thesis outlined in this article include:\n\nSupply chain issues.The world is currently going through a chip shortage, as well as shortages of various other hi-tech parts. These problems are affecting Apple. Just recently, the company slashed iPhone production because of supply chain issues. That right before the crucial Holiday season, no less. These kinds of problems are an ever-present threat for a hardware company like Apple, which depends on a ready supply of raw materials to keep sales flowing.\nScale.Mathematically, the bigger something gets, the larger of an increase is needed to drive percentage gains equal to past ones. If you start selling $1,000 widgets and sell one your first year, you double your sales just by selling $2,000 worth the next year. If, however, ten years later, you’re selling $332 billion worth, you need customers to come up with $664 billion in the eleventh year to achieve the same growth. This is mathematically unlikely. And as it just so happens, Apple’s $83 billion Q4 revenue annualizes to $332 billion. So growth will be harder to achieve going forward.\nDisruption.Apple’s business model requires that it stay on the leading edge of tech innovation. If another company comes out with something decisively superior to the iPhone, that could kill Apple’s business overnight. Apple itself did this once, to BlackBerry(BB), makers of the ill-fated BlackBerry Smartphone. The history of the tech industry is littered with companies eating each other's lunch, and while Apple has billions to spend on R&D, you never know where the next threat will come from.\n\nThe above are some very real risks for investors to keep in mind. The supply chain risk, in particular, is very real, having been cited as a problem in several quarterly reports. With that said, Apple stock has an incredible moat, decent growth, and a not-unreasonable valuation. This is definitely not a stock to short. And while the gains realized by longs will not be as good in the future as they were in the past, they should still be decent.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":202,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":696862999,"gmtCreate":1640664558410,"gmtModify":1640664558527,"author":{"id":"4099529441829710","authorId":"4099529441829710","name":"Ethan Ooi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4582faaea3eeb3a8816269a8ac4f567b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099529441829710","authorIdStr":"4099529441829710"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Shadow of Tesla with uncertainty&nbsp;","listText":"Shadow of Tesla with uncertainty&nbsp;","text":"Shadow of Tesla with uncertainty","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696862999","repostId":"1155676290","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155676290","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640662411,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1155676290?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-28 11:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Rivian's First Earnings Report Looks Like Tesla's Early Days, But Here's What's Different","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155676290","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"On Dec. 16, high-end electric pickup and SUV maker Rivian Automotive(NASDAQ:RIVN)reported its first-","content":"<p>On Dec. 16, high-end electric pickup and SUV maker&nbsp;<b>Rivian Automotive</b>(NASDAQ:RIVN)reported its first-ever quarterly results since going public through its recent IPO. The company delivered 11 electric vehicles (EVs) in total during the third quarter of 2021, bringing in approximately $1 million in revenue. Meanwhile, its market capitalization (market cap) was a princely $100 billion at the time of the quarterly release. Overall, the company looks a lot like&nbsp;<b>Tesla</b>(NASDAQ:TSLA)shortly after it went public, but there are some key differences sounding a note of caution.</p>\n<p><b>Rivian is a mirror of Tesla in some ways</b></p>\n<p>Once investors got a look at Rivian's Q3 earnings report,its share price dropped sharply, bringing its market cap down from $100 billion to a pre-Christmas level of $88 billion. Some analysts have been looking at Rivian's current position and arguing that it's quite similar to Tesla's at the start of its own upward climb. That was when Elon Musk's company also had scant revenue and little more than a few vehicle models and projections of future production to give it stock market traction.</p>\n<p>According to Rivian management's letter to shareholders, the company earned just $1 million in revenue during the three months ending on Sept. 30. Its net loss for the period was $1.23 billion, though $458 million of this was a net loss due to convertible notes. This led to a $12.21 net loss per share, far worse than Wall Street analyst consensus predictions of a $6.68 loss per share. Omitting the convertible notes, the company's quarterly net loss was $776 million.</p>\n<p>While current production is only a handful of vehicles, Rivian is looking to the future as a cause for optimism. It ended the quarter with $5.2 billion in cash; together with the net proceeds from its $13.7 billion in gross IPO proceeds and other, smaller funding sources, says it has around $19.9 billion to work with in achieving its goals. Those goals include boosting its Illinois factory's manufacturing capacity from 150,000 to 200,000 vehicles annually, along with building a second factory in Georgia with a 400,000-vehicle manufacturing capacity, to begin operating in 2024.</p>\n<p>These metrics and goals appear attractive, but at this point, they are mostly speculation. Rivian has 71,000 pre-orders for its R1T pickup truck, but it only has a tiny handful of vehicles actually on the road. Going from producing 11 vehicles in a quarter to, theoretically, 150,000 per quarter (based on Rivian's factory estimates) in just three years is a steep challenge even with around $20 billion available to fund it. While the sum is almost two-thirds of the amount automotive giant&nbsp;<b>Ford</b>(NYSE:F)is spending on its own EV production, the Blue Oval has been an established automaker for over a century, giving it deep levels of knowledge on mass production and immense resources of machinery, technical staff, and name recognition among consumers around the globe.</p>\n<p>Rivian may also have lost Ford's technical assistance after the latter decided to \"go it alone\" on its EV program in November, canceling its joint EV production plans with Rivian. Another serious roadblock Rivian will have to overcome is the very different environment it faces as an EV start-up compared to Tesla a decade ago.</p>\n<p><b>Where Rivian's road forks away from Tesla's</b></p>\n<p>While Rivian's current metrics look rather like Tesla's early days except for its massive valuation, it isn't operating in the same environment. Though hybrid vehicles existed well before it, and EVs had been tried, Tesla was a groundbreaking enterprise, the first of its kind.</p>\n<p>Rivian is operating in a very different world. Tesla itself is now a dominating force with a market cap above $1 trillion, manufacturing around a million very popular EVs per year. Ford recently&nbsp;stopped accepting reservations for its upcoming F-150 Lightningelectric pickup at 200,000 trucks&nbsp;because production couldn't keep up with demand. It's also building $30 billion worth of EV and EV battery facilities by 2025 for a massive manufacturing expansion.</p>\n<p>Chinese EV manufacturer&nbsp;<b>Nio</b>(NYSE:NIO)just unveiled a mid-sized electric sedan, the ET5, capable of challenging the Tesla Model S Plaid on range and features, and it plans to expand into 25 countries over the next few years. It's also now consistently building more than 10,000 vehicles per month. Just about every major automaker in the world is in the process of rolling out electric vehicles, and there are many other dedicated EV start-ups to contend with, too.</p>\n<p>In short, while Rivian resembles early Tesla, Tesla was operating with close-to-zero serious competition, giving it much more leeway as a pioneer. Rivian, by contrast, is trying to break into an EV market already crowded with successful rivals, who are busy expanding production into the hundreds of thousands and then millions, while Rivian is still trying to get its first few vehicles sold.</p>\n<p>On the plus side, Rivian does at least produce working vehicles and has&nbsp;preorders for 71,000 R1T pickup trucks.&nbsp;Retail titan&nbsp;<b>Amazon</b>(NASDAQ:AMZN)is working with it to buy a potential 100,000 delivery vans. Actually producing these vehicles could be a problem, however, considering that Ford may no longer be a manufacturing partner. In a recent CNBC interview, Ford CEO Jim Farley said Ford is considering&nbsp;selling its 12% stake in Rivianonce lock-up expires, gaining billions it can return to shareholders or invest in its own rapidly accelerating EV push.</p>\n<p><b>Buy Rivian now, or await a lower entry point?</b></p>\n<p>Orders and sheer market enthusiasm for all EV stocks are arguably the two main factors holding Rivian's share price relatively high right now. Nevertheless, in my opinion, the hurdles and risks it faces in maintaining or growing this valuation are quite high. The challenges of ramping up production (possibly without Ford's know-how and assistance), the numerous powerful competitors it faces, and the likelihood Ford will sell its Rivian stake, make me skeptical it will maintain its current stock value much longer.</p>\n<p>Rivian may become a viable&nbsp;electric car stock&nbsp;long-term, but it seems likely to shed a lot of its current soaring valuation in the meantime. This scenario makes waiting for a much lower share price as an entry point a strategy at least worth considering.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rivian's First Earnings Report Looks Like Tesla's Early Days, But Here's What's Different</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRivian's First Earnings Report Looks Like Tesla's Early Days, But Here's What's Different\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-28 11:33 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/27/rivian-earnings-report-looks-like-tesla-early-days/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>On Dec. 16, high-end electric pickup and SUV maker Rivian Automotive(NASDAQ:RIVN)reported its first-ever quarterly results since going public through its recent IPO. The company delivered 11 electric ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/27/rivian-earnings-report-looks-like-tesla-early-days/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/27/rivian-earnings-report-looks-like-tesla-early-days/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155676290","content_text":"On Dec. 16, high-end electric pickup and SUV maker Rivian Automotive(NASDAQ:RIVN)reported its first-ever quarterly results since going public through its recent IPO. The company delivered 11 electric vehicles (EVs) in total during the third quarter of 2021, bringing in approximately $1 million in revenue. Meanwhile, its market capitalization (market cap) was a princely $100 billion at the time of the quarterly release. Overall, the company looks a lot like Tesla(NASDAQ:TSLA)shortly after it went public, but there are some key differences sounding a note of caution.\nRivian is a mirror of Tesla in some ways\nOnce investors got a look at Rivian's Q3 earnings report,its share price dropped sharply, bringing its market cap down from $100 billion to a pre-Christmas level of $88 billion. Some analysts have been looking at Rivian's current position and arguing that it's quite similar to Tesla's at the start of its own upward climb. That was when Elon Musk's company also had scant revenue and little more than a few vehicle models and projections of future production to give it stock market traction.\nAccording to Rivian management's letter to shareholders, the company earned just $1 million in revenue during the three months ending on Sept. 30. Its net loss for the period was $1.23 billion, though $458 million of this was a net loss due to convertible notes. This led to a $12.21 net loss per share, far worse than Wall Street analyst consensus predictions of a $6.68 loss per share. Omitting the convertible notes, the company's quarterly net loss was $776 million.\nWhile current production is only a handful of vehicles, Rivian is looking to the future as a cause for optimism. It ended the quarter with $5.2 billion in cash; together with the net proceeds from its $13.7 billion in gross IPO proceeds and other, smaller funding sources, says it has around $19.9 billion to work with in achieving its goals. Those goals include boosting its Illinois factory's manufacturing capacity from 150,000 to 200,000 vehicles annually, along with building a second factory in Georgia with a 400,000-vehicle manufacturing capacity, to begin operating in 2024.\nThese metrics and goals appear attractive, but at this point, they are mostly speculation. Rivian has 71,000 pre-orders for its R1T pickup truck, but it only has a tiny handful of vehicles actually on the road. Going from producing 11 vehicles in a quarter to, theoretically, 150,000 per quarter (based on Rivian's factory estimates) in just three years is a steep challenge even with around $20 billion available to fund it. While the sum is almost two-thirds of the amount automotive giant Ford(NYSE:F)is spending on its own EV production, the Blue Oval has been an established automaker for over a century, giving it deep levels of knowledge on mass production and immense resources of machinery, technical staff, and name recognition among consumers around the globe.\nRivian may also have lost Ford's technical assistance after the latter decided to \"go it alone\" on its EV program in November, canceling its joint EV production plans with Rivian. Another serious roadblock Rivian will have to overcome is the very different environment it faces as an EV start-up compared to Tesla a decade ago.\nWhere Rivian's road forks away from Tesla's\nWhile Rivian's current metrics look rather like Tesla's early days except for its massive valuation, it isn't operating in the same environment. Though hybrid vehicles existed well before it, and EVs had been tried, Tesla was a groundbreaking enterprise, the first of its kind.\nRivian is operating in a very different world. Tesla itself is now a dominating force with a market cap above $1 trillion, manufacturing around a million very popular EVs per year. Ford recently stopped accepting reservations for its upcoming F-150 Lightningelectric pickup at 200,000 trucks because production couldn't keep up with demand. It's also building $30 billion worth of EV and EV battery facilities by 2025 for a massive manufacturing expansion.\nChinese EV manufacturer Nio(NYSE:NIO)just unveiled a mid-sized electric sedan, the ET5, capable of challenging the Tesla Model S Plaid on range and features, and it plans to expand into 25 countries over the next few years. It's also now consistently building more than 10,000 vehicles per month. Just about every major automaker in the world is in the process of rolling out electric vehicles, and there are many other dedicated EV start-ups to contend with, too.\nIn short, while Rivian resembles early Tesla, Tesla was operating with close-to-zero serious competition, giving it much more leeway as a pioneer. Rivian, by contrast, is trying to break into an EV market already crowded with successful rivals, who are busy expanding production into the hundreds of thousands and then millions, while Rivian is still trying to get its first few vehicles sold.\nOn the plus side, Rivian does at least produce working vehicles and has preorders for 71,000 R1T pickup trucks. Retail titan Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN)is working with it to buy a potential 100,000 delivery vans. Actually producing these vehicles could be a problem, however, considering that Ford may no longer be a manufacturing partner. In a recent CNBC interview, Ford CEO Jim Farley said Ford is considering selling its 12% stake in Rivianonce lock-up expires, gaining billions it can return to shareholders or invest in its own rapidly accelerating EV push.\nBuy Rivian now, or await a lower entry point?\nOrders and sheer market enthusiasm for all EV stocks are arguably the two main factors holding Rivian's share price relatively high right now. Nevertheless, in my opinion, the hurdles and risks it faces in maintaining or growing this valuation are quite high. The challenges of ramping up production (possibly without Ford's know-how and assistance), the numerous powerful competitors it faces, and the likelihood Ford will sell its Rivian stake, make me skeptical it will maintain its current stock value much longer.\nRivian may become a viable electric car stock long-term, but it seems likely to shed a lot of its current soaring valuation in the meantime. This scenario makes waiting for a much lower share price as an entry point a strategy at least worth considering.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RIVN":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":203,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":615288793,"gmtCreate":1652971162012,"gmtModify":1652971162940,"author":{"id":"4099529441829710","authorId":"4099529441829710","name":"Ethan Ooi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4582faaea3eeb3a8816269a8ac4f567b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099529441829710","authorIdStr":"4099529441829710"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/615288793","repostId":"615684356","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":615684356,"gmtCreate":1652937502576,"gmtModify":1652969876910,"author":{"id":"3571026833038682","authorId":"3571026833038682","name":"思辨财经","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26d4903b31d0aa5c76f99c3e1519f081","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571026833038682","authorIdStr":"3571026833038682"},"themes":[],"title":"京东为何赚钱难？","htmlText":"用跌宕起伏已经难以形容中概股波动之剧烈。乐观者一直以监管端信号为指引，不断追求“市场底”，但3月末中概大反攻之后，4月之后又进入严重收缩期，认识一次次被刷新，希望也一次次破灭。如今对中概股就有了两种截然不同的声音：乐观者认为中概提前下跌，早已跌破价值，可谓把成长股生生跌成了“价值股”，随着政策的企稳，中概股就会成为避险者的天堂，形成中概股的“底部锚”，尤其随着一些机构对中概明星企业的增持，又在强化这些观点；审慎者则认为，在一个加息周期中，资产价格下跌几乎是一个既定的事实，在此基础之上价格与价值的偏离也是必然的，超跌又是一个极难评判的概念，且中概股主要企业乃是2C类企业，随着内需增速的变缓，这些企业的增速和市场总盘子也有随之收缩的可能性，于是应抱以对敬畏和审慎的态度，谨慎“抄底”。5月17日，京东2022年的Q1财报发布，我们不妨以此为样本，来谈论中概的预期问题。为何我们选择京东，原因也很是简单，这是一个在过去同时兼具“价值股”和“成长股”两种风格的企业，其物流重资产经营模式，对高附加值产品的渗透率，都强调这是一个与“沃尔玛”那般的价值企业，但其所处电商赛道，尤其监管结束“二选一”之后，市场对其承接此部分红利又抱以强烈期望，“成长股”性质显现，这也就是2021年内在中概整体收缩之时，京东股价保持稳定的主要原因。那么以上因素还在吗？上图为京东，沃尔玛和亚马逊三家公司的市净率和市销率的对比情况，可以直观看到，自上市之后京东的市销率就不断下调，从与亚马逊同一水平不断向沃尔玛靠拢。我们也知道，市销率本就是为成长性公司所设置的，此模型更侧重于企业的增速。市销率的下行也自然意味着资本市场对其成长性的淡化。再看市净率，这是一个价值投资者最爱用的指标，是市值与净资产的比值。在此阶段中，京东市净率不断下跌，净资产对市值的杠杆撬动能力变弱。从“跌破价值线”的角度思考，市净率越低，价值股的概念越强","listText":"用跌宕起伏已经难以形容中概股波动之剧烈。乐观者一直以监管端信号为指引，不断追求“市场底”，但3月末中概大反攻之后，4月之后又进入严重收缩期，认识一次次被刷新，希望也一次次破灭。如今对中概股就有了两种截然不同的声音：乐观者认为中概提前下跌，早已跌破价值，可谓把成长股生生跌成了“价值股”，随着政策的企稳，中概股就会成为避险者的天堂，形成中概股的“底部锚”，尤其随着一些机构对中概明星企业的增持，又在强化这些观点；审慎者则认为，在一个加息周期中，资产价格下跌几乎是一个既定的事实，在此基础之上价格与价值的偏离也是必然的，超跌又是一个极难评判的概念，且中概股主要企业乃是2C类企业，随着内需增速的变缓，这些企业的增速和市场总盘子也有随之收缩的可能性，于是应抱以对敬畏和审慎的态度，谨慎“抄底”。5月17日，京东2022年的Q1财报发布，我们不妨以此为样本，来谈论中概的预期问题。为何我们选择京东，原因也很是简单，这是一个在过去同时兼具“价值股”和“成长股”两种风格的企业，其物流重资产经营模式，对高附加值产品的渗透率，都强调这是一个与“沃尔玛”那般的价值企业，但其所处电商赛道，尤其监管结束“二选一”之后，市场对其承接此部分红利又抱以强烈期望，“成长股”性质显现，这也就是2021年内在中概整体收缩之时，京东股价保持稳定的主要原因。那么以上因素还在吗？上图为京东，沃尔玛和亚马逊三家公司的市净率和市销率的对比情况，可以直观看到，自上市之后京东的市销率就不断下调，从与亚马逊同一水平不断向沃尔玛靠拢。我们也知道，市销率本就是为成长性公司所设置的，此模型更侧重于企业的增速。市销率的下行也自然意味着资本市场对其成长性的淡化。再看市净率，这是一个价值投资者最爱用的指标，是市值与净资产的比值。在此阶段中，京东市净率不断下跌，净资产对市值的杠杆撬动能力变弱。从“跌破价值线”的角度思考，市净率越低，价值股的概念越强","text":"用跌宕起伏已经难以形容中概股波动之剧烈。乐观者一直以监管端信号为指引，不断追求“市场底”，但3月末中概大反攻之后，4月之后又进入严重收缩期，认识一次次被刷新，希望也一次次破灭。如今对中概股就有了两种截然不同的声音：乐观者认为中概提前下跌，早已跌破价值，可谓把成长股生生跌成了“价值股”，随着政策的企稳，中概股就会成为避险者的天堂，形成中概股的“底部锚”，尤其随着一些机构对中概明星企业的增持，又在强化这些观点；审慎者则认为，在一个加息周期中，资产价格下跌几乎是一个既定的事实，在此基础之上价格与价值的偏离也是必然的，超跌又是一个极难评判的概念，且中概股主要企业乃是2C类企业，随着内需增速的变缓，这些企业的增速和市场总盘子也有随之收缩的可能性，于是应抱以对敬畏和审慎的态度，谨慎“抄底”。5月17日，京东2022年的Q1财报发布，我们不妨以此为样本，来谈论中概的预期问题。为何我们选择京东，原因也很是简单，这是一个在过去同时兼具“价值股”和“成长股”两种风格的企业，其物流重资产经营模式，对高附加值产品的渗透率，都强调这是一个与“沃尔玛”那般的价值企业，但其所处电商赛道，尤其监管结束“二选一”之后，市场对其承接此部分红利又抱以强烈期望，“成长股”性质显现，这也就是2021年内在中概整体收缩之时，京东股价保持稳定的主要原因。那么以上因素还在吗？上图为京东，沃尔玛和亚马逊三家公司的市净率和市销率的对比情况，可以直观看到，自上市之后京东的市销率就不断下调，从与亚马逊同一水平不断向沃尔玛靠拢。我们也知道，市销率本就是为成长性公司所设置的，此模型更侧重于企业的增速。市销率的下行也自然意味着资本市场对其成长性的淡化。再看市净率，这是一个价值投资者最爱用的指标，是市值与净资产的比值。在此阶段中，京东市净率不断下跌，净资产对市值的杠杆撬动能力变弱。从“跌破价值线”的角度思考，市净率越低，价值股的概念越强","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a0300f84c3afce91e72f3f9065d62f7","width":"640","height":"364"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68d8531c5fe98f4d62f7c648564ca813","width":"1080","height":"338"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/187ed4db9b2dbb1d7068d7ab158ba940","width":"1080","height":"766"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/615684356","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":7,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2211,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":638179986,"gmtCreate":1645154666854,"gmtModify":1645154666966,"author":{"id":"4099529441829710","authorId":"4099529441829710","name":"Ethan Ooi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4582faaea3eeb3a8816269a8ac4f567b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099529441829710","authorIdStr":"4099529441829710"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/638179986","repostId":"638992180","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":638992180,"gmtCreate":1645016782259,"gmtModify":1645046023926,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36984908995200","authorIdStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"【老虎财报季】分享财报点评，赢苹果股票！","htmlText":"《老虎财报季》征文活动正在进行中，分享财报点评，有机会赢取苹果股票，免佣卡，还有虎友们最最最喜欢的限量盲盒手办。这周我们收到了很多很多虎友撰写的财报前瞻和解读，看着大家分享的财报交易心得，小虎真的收获颇多。小虎君从中选出了10篇优质的内容，下面就让我们一起欣赏一下吧： <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/630503519\" target=\"_blank\">启程教你如何阅读美股财报-操作篇 </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3493935227624916\">@启程资本</a> 美股公司年报该怎么研究，很多网友觉得很难，其实是有一个认知或操作鸿沟，跨越了是很简单的。那么“F-1”、“20-F”、“424(b)4”等黑话到底是什么意思？美股年报在哪查看？如何找到某家公司财报？如何筛选出所有年份的年报？如何把年报翻译成中文？年报都关注哪些重点？ <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/630139912\" target=\"_blank\">【视频】对财报季手足无措？记住这些窍门，0财务知识的你也能有所收获 </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3545995761422355\">@不二说价值</a> Q4财报季拉开序幕，财报对于个股及大盘的影响较大，一个亮眼的财报可以让跌跌不休的股票暴涨30%，甚至50%，学习财报知识对于美股投资者来说是重要的一课，我希望通过这期视频0基础投资者投资者通过财报掌握小技巧，小窍门发掘投资线索，以及规避风险... <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/639596359\" target=\"_blank\">跟着芝士虎老师学看财报 - 苹果</a>","listText":"《老虎财报季》征文活动正在进行中，分享财报点评，有机会赢取苹果股票，免佣卡，还有虎友们最最最喜欢的限量盲盒手办。这周我们收到了很多很多虎友撰写的财报前瞻和解读，看着大家分享的财报交易心得，小虎真的收获颇多。小虎君从中选出了10篇优质的内容，下面就让我们一起欣赏一下吧： <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/630503519\" target=\"_blank\">启程教你如何阅读美股财报-操作篇 </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3493935227624916\">@启程资本</a> 美股公司年报该怎么研究，很多网友觉得很难，其实是有一个认知或操作鸿沟，跨越了是很简单的。那么“F-1”、“20-F”、“424(b)4”等黑话到底是什么意思？美股年报在哪查看？如何找到某家公司财报？如何筛选出所有年份的年报？如何把年报翻译成中文？年报都关注哪些重点？ <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/630139912\" target=\"_blank\">【视频】对财报季手足无措？记住这些窍门，0财务知识的你也能有所收获 </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3545995761422355\">@不二说价值</a> Q4财报季拉开序幕，财报对于个股及大盘的影响较大，一个亮眼的财报可以让跌跌不休的股票暴涨30%，甚至50%，学习财报知识对于美股投资者来说是重要的一课，我希望通过这期视频0基础投资者投资者通过财报掌握小技巧，小窍门发掘投资线索，以及规避风险... <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/639596359\" target=\"_blank\">跟着芝士虎老师学看财报 - 苹果</a>","text":"《老虎财报季》征文活动正在进行中，分享财报点评，有机会赢取苹果股票，免佣卡，还有虎友们最最最喜欢的限量盲盒手办。这周我们收到了很多很多虎友撰写的财报前瞻和解读，看着大家分享的财报交易心得，小虎真的收获颇多。小虎君从中选出了10篇优质的内容，下面就让我们一起欣赏一下吧： 启程教你如何阅读美股财报-操作篇 @启程资本 美股公司年报该怎么研究，很多网友觉得很难，其实是有一个认知或操作鸿沟，跨越了是很简单的。那么“F-1”、“20-F”、“424(b)4”等黑话到底是什么意思？美股年报在哪查看？如何找到某家公司财报？如何筛选出所有年份的年报？如何把年报翻译成中文？年报都关注哪些重点？ 【视频】对财报季手足无措？记住这些窍门，0财务知识的你也能有所收获 @不二说价值 Q4财报季拉开序幕，财报对于个股及大盘的影响较大，一个亮眼的财报可以让跌跌不休的股票暴涨30%，甚至50%，学习财报知识对于美股投资者来说是重要的一课，我希望通过这期视频0基础投资者投资者通过财报掌握小技巧，小窍门发掘投资线索，以及规避风险... 跟着芝士虎老师学看财报 - 苹果","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/040f5bee2bf182e86d37fca8ce0d968a","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e29d7a279f87c807ad734683100eda6","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6af6279a8324d7fc47ef789afa7c1611","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/638992180","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1234,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":633112022,"gmtCreate":1643852749011,"gmtModify":1643852749099,"author":{"id":"4099529441829710","authorId":"4099529441829710","name":"Ethan Ooi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4582faaea3eeb3a8816269a8ac4f567b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099529441829710","authorIdStr":"4099529441829710"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633112022","repostId":"633962731","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":633962731,"gmtCreate":1643686156404,"gmtModify":1713510258111,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36984908995200","authorIdStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"【新春大放送】小虎幸运转盘 ，晒晒你的幸运股！","htmlText":"虎友们，新年好！ 祝大家虎年大吉，虎利全开！新的一年，面对着市场众多的股票，你将如何选择？一起来玩小游戏，看看你2022年的幸运股票是哪一只吗？截图抽出你的幸运股票，赢无限虎币！ 用手机截屏小虎转盘，把屏幕截图发送到本文的评论区，即视为完成参与！【奖励规则】 1、每截出一只股票，并发送评论区，即可获得30虎币&nbsp; 2、截全12只股票，并发送评论区，可获得360虎币&nbsp; 3、转发并在评论区<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3517110361358321\">@你的好友</a>，若他们截出了N个幸运股票，你可以额外获得N*10个虎币奖励（不设上限）&nbsp; 【活动时间】 现在 ~ 2月6日 【活动说明】 1、对于相同的股票截图， 每个小虎只奖励1次&nbsp; 2、复制粘贴他人的股票截图，视为无效&nbsp; 3、虎币将于活动结束后5个工作日内发放4、本次活动的最终解释权归老虎社区所有 截图晒出你2022年的幸运股票吧！别忘了让你的朋友们一起参与哦！祝大家虎年投资顺利！<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>","listText":"虎友们，新年好！ 祝大家虎年大吉，虎利全开！新的一年，面对着市场众多的股票，你将如何选择？一起来玩小游戏，看看你2022年的幸运股票是哪一只吗？截图抽出你的幸运股票，赢无限虎币！ 用手机截屏小虎转盘，把屏幕截图发送到本文的评论区，即视为完成参与！【奖励规则】 1、每截出一只股票，并发送评论区，即可获得30虎币&nbsp; 2、截全12只股票，并发送评论区，可获得360虎币&nbsp; 3、转发并在评论区<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3517110361358321\">@你的好友</a>，若他们截出了N个幸运股票，你可以额外获得N*10个虎币奖励（不设上限）&nbsp; 【活动时间】 现在 ~ 2月6日 【活动说明】 1、对于相同的股票截图， 每个小虎只奖励1次&nbsp; 2、复制粘贴他人的股票截图，视为无效&nbsp; 3、虎币将于活动结束后5个工作日内发放4、本次活动的最终解释权归老虎社区所有 截图晒出你2022年的幸运股票吧！别忘了让你的朋友们一起参与哦！祝大家虎年投资顺利！<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>","text":"虎友们，新年好！ 祝大家虎年大吉，虎利全开！新的一年，面对着市场众多的股票，你将如何选择？一起来玩小游戏，看看你2022年的幸运股票是哪一只吗？截图抽出你的幸运股票，赢无限虎币！ 用手机截屏小虎转盘，把屏幕截图发送到本文的评论区，即视为完成参与！【奖励规则】 1、每截出一只股票，并发送评论区，即可获得30虎币 2、截全12只股票，并发送评论区，可获得360虎币 3、转发并在评论区@你的好友，若他们截出了N个幸运股票，你可以额外获得N*10个虎币奖励（不设上限） 【活动时间】 现在 ~ 2月6日 【活动说明】 1、对于相同的股票截图， 每个小虎只奖励1次 2、复制粘贴他人的股票截图，视为无效 3、虎币将于活动结束后5个工作日内发放4、本次活动的最终解释权归老虎社区所有 截图晒出你2022年的幸运股票吧！别忘了让你的朋友们一起参与哦！祝大家虎年投资顺利！$老虎证券(TIGR)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddc5c53fb32b3fd13f1e9b128eae1121","width":"1200","height":"1200"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633962731","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1472,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":639824729,"gmtCreate":1643252983312,"gmtModify":1643252983389,"author":{"id":"4099529441829710","authorId":"4099529441829710","name":"Ethan Ooi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4582faaea3eeb3a8816269a8ac4f567b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099529441829710","authorIdStr":"4099529441829710"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/639824729","repostId":"639101842","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":639101842,"gmtCreate":1643186934071,"gmtModify":1643243836619,"author":{"id":"21347731130544","authorId":"21347731130544","name":"价值投资为王","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89ffffc59ff9ac9cb9cb74f596418d44","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"21347731130544","authorIdStr":"21347731130544"},"themes":[],"title":"半导体泡沫开始破裂！","htmlText":"昨夜，纳斯达克指数仍旧惊魂不定，大跌2.28%。跌幅最为明显的是半导体概念股，其中，阿斯麦大跌5.65%，英伟达大跌4.48%，AMD大跌4.6%，连半导体指数ETF（代码：SMH）都下跌了3.96%。这场美股崩盘行情，半导体算的上是震中了。消息面上，传言英伟达将放弃收购ARM，而软银方面正在加紧准备ARM公开募股，以代替被英伟达收购的选择。自2020年9月英伟达宣布斥资400亿美元收购全球移动CPU主导者ARM时，便引发全球震动，如果收购完成，将成为史上最大的芯片并购案！而经过长达一年多的博弈，半导体行业多数巨头对这笔交易表达反对意见，同时，各国审查进展不顺，这或许是英伟达不得不放弃收购ARM的原因。虽然世纪并购案无法达成，但实际上，2021年英伟达股价大涨125%的主要原因来自业绩和史无前例的美联储大放水。根据彭博分析师一致预测，英伟达2022财年营收规模约267亿美元，同比大增60%，是最近十年来最快的增速：业绩大爆发的背景与疫情时代电子产品需求暴增相关，而历史上，电子产品需求屡有波动，从英伟达历年营收增速上也可以看出剧烈波动的特征。根据彭博分析师对2023财年营收规模的预测，英伟达今年的营收增速或将放缓至19%。复盘英伟达历年股价走势，不难发现，当营收高速增长时，股价大涨，反过来，增速放低或将对股价形成巨大压力。目前，无论是按照半导体行业传统的PB估值，抑或采用市盈率，英伟达的估值都史无前例的高：因此，管理层对2023财年营收增速的指引，将成为未来股价运行方向的根据，而最新的财报公布日在2月16日，在此之前，美联储加息将对高估值的个股形成巨大压力。除英伟达之外，其他半导体概念股同样不容乐观。已经公布四季度财报的台积电和阿斯麦，两家公司都给出了超预期的2022年收入增速指引，但无奈估值高企，超预期财报并未在这场美股大跌中幸存。根据管理层的指引，台积电2022年收入增速","listText":"昨夜，纳斯达克指数仍旧惊魂不定，大跌2.28%。跌幅最为明显的是半导体概念股，其中，阿斯麦大跌5.65%，英伟达大跌4.48%，AMD大跌4.6%，连半导体指数ETF（代码：SMH）都下跌了3.96%。这场美股崩盘行情，半导体算的上是震中了。消息面上，传言英伟达将放弃收购ARM，而软银方面正在加紧准备ARM公开募股，以代替被英伟达收购的选择。自2020年9月英伟达宣布斥资400亿美元收购全球移动CPU主导者ARM时，便引发全球震动，如果收购完成，将成为史上最大的芯片并购案！而经过长达一年多的博弈，半导体行业多数巨头对这笔交易表达反对意见，同时，各国审查进展不顺，这或许是英伟达不得不放弃收购ARM的原因。虽然世纪并购案无法达成，但实际上，2021年英伟达股价大涨125%的主要原因来自业绩和史无前例的美联储大放水。根据彭博分析师一致预测，英伟达2022财年营收规模约267亿美元，同比大增60%，是最近十年来最快的增速：业绩大爆发的背景与疫情时代电子产品需求暴增相关，而历史上，电子产品需求屡有波动，从英伟达历年营收增速上也可以看出剧烈波动的特征。根据彭博分析师对2023财年营收规模的预测，英伟达今年的营收增速或将放缓至19%。复盘英伟达历年股价走势，不难发现，当营收高速增长时，股价大涨，反过来，增速放低或将对股价形成巨大压力。目前，无论是按照半导体行业传统的PB估值，抑或采用市盈率，英伟达的估值都史无前例的高：因此，管理层对2023财年营收增速的指引，将成为未来股价运行方向的根据，而最新的财报公布日在2月16日，在此之前，美联储加息将对高估值的个股形成巨大压力。除英伟达之外，其他半导体概念股同样不容乐观。已经公布四季度财报的台积电和阿斯麦，两家公司都给出了超预期的2022年收入增速指引，但无奈估值高企，超预期财报并未在这场美股大跌中幸存。根据管理层的指引，台积电2022年收入增速","text":"昨夜，纳斯达克指数仍旧惊魂不定，大跌2.28%。跌幅最为明显的是半导体概念股，其中，阿斯麦大跌5.65%，英伟达大跌4.48%，AMD大跌4.6%，连半导体指数ETF（代码：SMH）都下跌了3.96%。这场美股崩盘行情，半导体算的上是震中了。消息面上，传言英伟达将放弃收购ARM，而软银方面正在加紧准备ARM公开募股，以代替被英伟达收购的选择。自2020年9月英伟达宣布斥资400亿美元收购全球移动CPU主导者ARM时，便引发全球震动，如果收购完成，将成为史上最大的芯片并购案！而经过长达一年多的博弈，半导体行业多数巨头对这笔交易表达反对意见，同时，各国审查进展不顺，这或许是英伟达不得不放弃收购ARM的原因。虽然世纪并购案无法达成，但实际上，2021年英伟达股价大涨125%的主要原因来自业绩和史无前例的美联储大放水。根据彭博分析师一致预测，英伟达2022财年营收规模约267亿美元，同比大增60%，是最近十年来最快的增速：业绩大爆发的背景与疫情时代电子产品需求暴增相关，而历史上，电子产品需求屡有波动，从英伟达历年营收增速上也可以看出剧烈波动的特征。根据彭博分析师对2023财年营收规模的预测，英伟达今年的营收增速或将放缓至19%。复盘英伟达历年股价走势，不难发现，当营收高速增长时，股价大涨，反过来，增速放低或将对股价形成巨大压力。目前，无论是按照半导体行业传统的PB估值，抑或采用市盈率，英伟达的估值都史无前例的高：因此，管理层对2023财年营收增速的指引，将成为未来股价运行方向的根据，而最新的财报公布日在2月16日，在此之前，美联储加息将对高估值的个股形成巨大压力。除英伟达之外，其他半导体概念股同样不容乐观。已经公布四季度财报的台积电和阿斯麦，两家公司都给出了超预期的2022年收入增速指引，但无奈估值高企，超预期财报并未在这场美股大跌中幸存。根据管理层的指引，台积电2022年收入增速","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/228f5448007a59cdcc6670a95d1a1c8b","width":"632","height":"328"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9eb7069599895777c61855bff1e609e5","width":"632","height":"369"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b264a51660487250081389e5f9c077e1","width":"632","height":"367"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/639101842","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1332,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":630719597,"gmtCreate":1643038779635,"gmtModify":1643038779717,"author":{"id":"4099529441829710","authorId":"4099529441829710","name":"Ethan Ooi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4582faaea3eeb3a8816269a8ac4f567b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099529441829710","authorIdStr":"4099529441829710"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630719597","repostId":"630671321","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":630671321,"gmtCreate":1642851826825,"gmtModify":1744960783891,"author":{"id":"3515677085772011","authorId":"3515677085772011","name":"老特资本","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e94c23bbbf9eaa7982385d5e639a294","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3515677085772011","authorIdStr":"3515677085772011"},"themes":[],"title":"如何正确应对美股持续下跌？","htmlText":"最近老特收到的最多的问题就是“美股又又又跌了怎么办？”。[喷血]&nbsp;直接给出方案，因为每个人账户资金、风险偏好、个人情况都不同，无法给出统一的解决方案，老特这里针对不同人群给出不同的三个方案：1. 针对Risk Adverse风险厌恶人群：可以空仓了！只要不投资不买股票，就不会有风险！在这波动如此大的市场，买点美元债拿点零花钱也不错，待过段时间股市稳定了再重新进来也不会太差。[流泪]&nbsp;2. 针对Risk Neutral 风险中立人群：如果之前是满仓的可以减至半仓，待市场开始反弹或者VIX恐慌指数开始稳步下跌了就可以开始慢慢建仓，留的半仓也是为了万一反弹不至于踏空，这个政策比较适合风险中立的人群。[真香]&nbsp;3. 针对Risk Lover 风险喜好人群：BUY NOW!!! 因为不管怎么说，美股纵横60年都是持续上涨的，一直屡创新高，所以风险喜好者正是抓住了这点，在每逢大跌的时候就是他们买买买的时候，当再次创新高之时便是他们收获之时。[财迷]&nbsp;下面说说老特的观点：&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;美国从20年3月开始放了这么多水，总要有个地方承接吧，即便是加息也不至于加到让企业喘不过气来，再说了，美国不可以让股市无限制地跌下去，毕竟美国人的养老保险401-K还跟美股大蓝筹挂钩呢，基本等于全民被动炒股的状态，如果美股出现大幅度回调又不及时出政策修正的话，拜登政府可能要下台的，这压力谁都扛不住。[笑哭]&nbsp;本轮回调下跌极有可能是因为加息迫在眉睫+估值修复的一个过程，很多公司都被借刀杀股了，比如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$</a>其","listText":"最近老特收到的最多的问题就是“美股又又又跌了怎么办？”。[喷血]&nbsp;直接给出方案，因为每个人账户资金、风险偏好、个人情况都不同，无法给出统一的解决方案，老特这里针对不同人群给出不同的三个方案：1. 针对Risk Adverse风险厌恶人群：可以空仓了！只要不投资不买股票，就不会有风险！在这波动如此大的市场，买点美元债拿点零花钱也不错，待过段时间股市稳定了再重新进来也不会太差。[流泪]&nbsp;2. 针对Risk Neutral 风险中立人群：如果之前是满仓的可以减至半仓，待市场开始反弹或者VIX恐慌指数开始稳步下跌了就可以开始慢慢建仓，留的半仓也是为了万一反弹不至于踏空，这个政策比较适合风险中立的人群。[真香]&nbsp;3. 针对Risk Lover 风险喜好人群：BUY NOW!!! 因为不管怎么说，美股纵横60年都是持续上涨的，一直屡创新高，所以风险喜好者正是抓住了这点，在每逢大跌的时候就是他们买买买的时候，当再次创新高之时便是他们收获之时。[财迷]&nbsp;下面说说老特的观点：&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;美国从20年3月开始放了这么多水，总要有个地方承接吧，即便是加息也不至于加到让企业喘不过气来，再说了，美国不可以让股市无限制地跌下去，毕竟美国人的养老保险401-K还跟美股大蓝筹挂钩呢，基本等于全民被动炒股的状态，如果美股出现大幅度回调又不及时出政策修正的话，拜登政府可能要下台的，这压力谁都扛不住。[笑哭]&nbsp;本轮回调下跌极有可能是因为加息迫在眉睫+估值修复的一个过程，很多公司都被借刀杀股了，比如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$</a>其","text":"最近老特收到的最多的问题就是“美股又又又跌了怎么办？”。[喷血] 直接给出方案，因为每个人账户资金、风险偏好、个人情况都不同，无法给出统一的解决方案，老特这里针对不同人群给出不同的三个方案：1. 针对Risk Adverse风险厌恶人群：可以空仓了！只要不投资不买股票，就不会有风险！在这波动如此大的市场，买点美元债拿点零花钱也不错，待过段时间股市稳定了再重新进来也不会太差。[流泪] 2. 针对Risk Neutral 风险中立人群：如果之前是满仓的可以减至半仓，待市场开始反弹或者VIX恐慌指数开始稳步下跌了就可以开始慢慢建仓，留的半仓也是为了万一反弹不至于踏空，这个政策比较适合风险中立的人群。[真香] 3. 针对Risk Lover 风险喜好人群：BUY NOW!!! 因为不管怎么说，美股纵横60年都是持续上涨的，一直屡创新高，所以风险喜好者正是抓住了这点，在每逢大跌的时候就是他们买买买的时候，当再次创新高之时便是他们收获之时。[财迷] 下面说说老特的观点： 美国从20年3月开始放了这么多水，总要有个地方承接吧，即便是加息也不至于加到让企业喘不过气来，再说了，美国不可以让股市无限制地跌下去，毕竟美国人的养老保险401-K还跟美股大蓝筹挂钩呢，基本等于全民被动炒股的状态，如果美股出现大幅度回调又不及时出政策修正的话，拜登政府可能要下台的，这压力谁都扛不住。[笑哭] 本轮回调下跌极有可能是因为加息迫在眉睫+估值修复的一个过程，很多公司都被借刀杀股了，比如$Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$和$Sea Ltd(SE)$其","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ec917e79ce0b31022ccee1820a07c67","width":"1440","height":"1080"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f30465f4d95026b335d4f4fb2403ada","width":"702","height":"800"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d901b6a57d791b9010e1b2396246ab4b","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630671321","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1625,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":630732840,"gmtCreate":1643037725842,"gmtModify":1643037725930,"author":{"id":"4099529441829710","authorId":"4099529441829710","name":"Ethan 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BHE\">$Benchmark Electronics Inc(BHE)$</a>&nbsp;近日，巴菲特旗下的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司（BHE）计划斥资39亿美元，约合人民币247亿元，建设风力、太阳能发电项目。华尔街分析人士称，如此之巨额的投资，或将使该项目成为美国最大的单一风电项目。从投资路径来看，新能源领域一直是股神的心头好，巴菲特通过BHE持续投资可再生能源领域。目前，BHE已经成为了美国最大的新能源资产所有者之一，截至2020年底的投资额为340亿美元，而其中风电资产占据了大部分。作为股神，巴菲特的动作吸引着全世界的目光。而受巴菲特看好的领域，通常被市场理解为具备长期投资价值的标的。此番巴菲特重金下注风电、光伏领域，预示着清洁能源依然是未来的大趋势。这或许能给持续调整的A股风电、光伏赛道带来一些积极信号。\n \n","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BHE\">$Benchmark Electronics Inc(BHE)$</a>&nbsp;近日，巴菲特旗下的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司（BHE）计划斥资39亿美元，约合人民币247亿元，建设风力、太阳能发电项目。华尔街分析人士称，如此之巨额的投资，或将使该项目成为美国最大的单一风电项目。从投资路径来看，新能源领域一直是股神的心头好，巴菲特通过BHE持续投资可再生能源领域。目前，BHE已经成为了美国最大的新能源资产所有者之一，截至2020年底的投资额为340亿美元，而其中风电资产占据了大部分。作为股神，巴菲特的动作吸引着全世界的目光。而受巴菲特看好的领域，通常被市场理解为具备长期投资价值的标的。此番巴菲特重金下注风电、光伏领域，预示着清洁能源依然是未来的大趋势。这或许能给持续调整的A股风电、光伏赛道带来一些积极信号。","text":"$Benchmark Electronics Inc(BHE)$ 近日，巴菲特旗下的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司（BHE）计划斥资39亿美元，约合人民币247亿元，建设风力、太阳能发电项目。华尔街分析人士称，如此之巨额的投资，或将使该项目成为美国最大的单一风电项目。从投资路径来看，新能源领域一直是股神的心头好，巴菲特通过BHE持续投资可再生能源领域。目前，BHE已经成为了美国最大的新能源资产所有者之一，截至2020年底的投资额为340亿美元，而其中风电资产占据了大部分。作为股神，巴菲特的动作吸引着全世界的目光。而受巴菲特看好的领域，通常被市场理解为具备长期投资价值的标的。此番巴菲特重金下注风电、光伏领域，预示着清洁能源依然是未来的大趋势。这或许能给持续调整的A股风电、光伏赛道带来一些积极信号。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9e2cb6062b37cad2b9a46fd27340375","width":"0","height":"0"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630839988","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"0f6ec1728252486e8883b57d71fae6c8","tweetId":"630839988","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/73ba5544vodgzp1254107296/8f9950bc387702294914087565/Rz9hAI5eCHwA.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9e2cb6062b37cad2b9a46fd27340375"},"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1511,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":630269695,"gmtCreate":1642911414458,"gmtModify":1642911458290,"author":{"id":"4099529441829710","authorId":"4099529441829710","name":"Ethan Ooi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4582faaea3eeb3a8816269a8ac4f567b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099529441829710","authorIdStr":"4099529441829710"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630269695","repostId":"630885632","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":630885632,"gmtCreate":1642775413505,"gmtModify":1642819467439,"author":{"id":"3527667590215376","authorId":"3527667590215376","name":"期权小班长","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e785bea87af8baf08d2b24111b78c16a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667590215376","authorIdStr":"3527667590215376"},"themes":[],"title":"大回调该做什么，大跌股票是否可以抄底，以及一个机会","htmlText":"今天早上醒过来看了一下盘后，发现信息量太大了。美股市场周四高开低走，盘中因反垄断立法引发大跌，国债终于不用为大跌背锅了。 参议院司法委员会以16票对6票的投票结果，批准了针对苹果、Meta、亚马逊、谷歌等大型科技公司的反垄断立法，给了本就摇摇欲坠的大盘致命一击。盘后又爆出奈飞财报噩耗，因22Q1全球付费用户增长预期不及市场预期，250万远远低于去年的400万增长，也远远低于市场预期650万。 恐慌叠加，大家都很疑惑，这里究竟是谁不行了，美国老百姓不行了，还是你奈飞公司不行了，还是所有公司都不行了呢？所以调整继续加深，股指继续破位。 现在该做什么 不要抄底，注意止损。 第一个不要抄底针对普通上班族，也就是没什么时间看盘的人，建议不要过早抄底。现在大盘还没有见底，股票回调是一个很痛苦的过程，不要看见跌了20%就想抄底了，因为股票可能还会继续跌20%。如果没有合适的策略建议现金观望就可以了。 第二个不要抄底是建议sell&nbsp;put尽量深度，尽量不要抄底。如果临近接盘建议买put兜底，或者roll远期。远期可以考虑最远roll到3个月，最迟3个月之后也会反弹了。如果接盘了建议用领口策略，sell&nbsp;call+正股+put做持股的止损策略。原因还是跟上面一样，探底过程会比较痛苦。 最后就是注意止损。如果你持有正股不喜欢割肉，那就参考上面的领口策略，其实领口就是帮你做止损判断的。 虽然不开仓，但说一个机会： 周五还是不开仓，把本周的交易梳理一下，该roll的roll了，该止损的止损。但奈飞大跌我觉得还是一个不错的机会，考虑盘中价格合适做一下。 奈飞这个不及预期很冤枉，650万新增预期真的很离谱，仿佛是老板设定了一个完全达不到的kpi，最后给你评级c。我有种预感本季度这类财报会很多。 奈飞大跌20%，按财报大跌的一贯表现，会横盘三个月直到下次财报，所以可以考虑做sell&amp;","listText":"今天早上醒过来看了一下盘后，发现信息量太大了。美股市场周四高开低走，盘中因反垄断立法引发大跌，国债终于不用为大跌背锅了。 参议院司法委员会以16票对6票的投票结果，批准了针对苹果、Meta、亚马逊、谷歌等大型科技公司的反垄断立法，给了本就摇摇欲坠的大盘致命一击。盘后又爆出奈飞财报噩耗，因22Q1全球付费用户增长预期不及市场预期，250万远远低于去年的400万增长，也远远低于市场预期650万。 恐慌叠加，大家都很疑惑，这里究竟是谁不行了，美国老百姓不行了，还是你奈飞公司不行了，还是所有公司都不行了呢？所以调整继续加深，股指继续破位。 现在该做什么 不要抄底，注意止损。 第一个不要抄底针对普通上班族，也就是没什么时间看盘的人，建议不要过早抄底。现在大盘还没有见底，股票回调是一个很痛苦的过程，不要看见跌了20%就想抄底了，因为股票可能还会继续跌20%。如果没有合适的策略建议现金观望就可以了。 第二个不要抄底是建议sell&nbsp;put尽量深度，尽量不要抄底。如果临近接盘建议买put兜底，或者roll远期。远期可以考虑最远roll到3个月，最迟3个月之后也会反弹了。如果接盘了建议用领口策略，sell&nbsp;call+正股+put做持股的止损策略。原因还是跟上面一样，探底过程会比较痛苦。 最后就是注意止损。如果你持有正股不喜欢割肉，那就参考上面的领口策略，其实领口就是帮你做止损判断的。 虽然不开仓，但说一个机会： 周五还是不开仓，把本周的交易梳理一下，该roll的roll了，该止损的止损。但奈飞大跌我觉得还是一个不错的机会，考虑盘中价格合适做一下。 奈飞这个不及预期很冤枉，650万新增预期真的很离谱，仿佛是老板设定了一个完全达不到的kpi，最后给你评级c。我有种预感本季度这类财报会很多。 奈飞大跌20%，按财报大跌的一贯表现，会横盘三个月直到下次财报，所以可以考虑做sell&amp;","text":"今天早上醒过来看了一下盘后，发现信息量太大了。美股市场周四高开低走，盘中因反垄断立法引发大跌，国债终于不用为大跌背锅了。 参议院司法委员会以16票对6票的投票结果，批准了针对苹果、Meta、亚马逊、谷歌等大型科技公司的反垄断立法，给了本就摇摇欲坠的大盘致命一击。盘后又爆出奈飞财报噩耗，因22Q1全球付费用户增长预期不及市场预期，250万远远低于去年的400万增长，也远远低于市场预期650万。 恐慌叠加，大家都很疑惑，这里究竟是谁不行了，美国老百姓不行了，还是你奈飞公司不行了，还是所有公司都不行了呢？所以调整继续加深，股指继续破位。 现在该做什么 不要抄底，注意止损。 第一个不要抄底针对普通上班族，也就是没什么时间看盘的人，建议不要过早抄底。现在大盘还没有见底，股票回调是一个很痛苦的过程，不要看见跌了20%就想抄底了，因为股票可能还会继续跌20%。如果没有合适的策略建议现金观望就可以了。 第二个不要抄底是建议sell put尽量深度，尽量不要抄底。如果临近接盘建议买put兜底，或者roll远期。远期可以考虑最远roll到3个月，最迟3个月之后也会反弹了。如果接盘了建议用领口策略，sell call+正股+put做持股的止损策略。原因还是跟上面一样，探底过程会比较痛苦。 最后就是注意止损。如果你持有正股不喜欢割肉，那就参考上面的领口策略，其实领口就是帮你做止损判断的。 虽然不开仓，但说一个机会： 周五还是不开仓，把本周的交易梳理一下，该roll的roll了，该止损的止损。但奈飞大跌我觉得还是一个不错的机会，考虑盘中价格合适做一下。 奈飞这个不及预期很冤枉，650万新增预期真的很离谱，仿佛是老板设定了一个完全达不到的kpi，最后给你评级c。我有种预感本季度这类财报会很多。 奈飞大跌20%，按财报大跌的一贯表现，会横盘三个月直到下次财报，所以可以考虑做sell&","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630885632","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1542,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":630807913,"gmtCreate":1642762112064,"gmtModify":1642762221898,"author":{"id":"4099529441829710","authorId":"4099529441829710","name":"Ethan Ooi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4582faaea3eeb3a8816269a8ac4f567b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099529441829710","authorIdStr":"4099529441829710"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630807913","repostId":"697727251","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":697727251,"gmtCreate":1642601970952,"gmtModify":1642602072759,"author":{"id":"3539674289973208","authorId":"3539674289973208","name":"节点财经","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bc4a2c77823eb34200081e30d39a4d3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3539674289973208","authorIdStr":"3539674289973208"},"themes":[],"title":"扩产能、强机制、拓赛道！2022海尔智家要谋划什么？","htmlText":"文 / 七公出品 / 节点财经刚刚过去的2021年，要说制造业艰难估计无人反对，但再艰难的日子，也总有逆势而上者，比如海尔智家。数据显示，2021前三季度，海尔智家营收、归母净利润分别增长10.07%、57.68%，利润增速创出行业最快；在二级市场，家居板块2021全年整体收跌，但海尔智家A股和H股年线均收红，尤其是H股，涨幅高达17.25%。不过，就像莎翁所言：过往一切，皆为序章。对资本市场来说，更重要的是思考未来。那么，2022年海尔智家业绩走势如何？我们试图透过产能、机制、赛道（产品结构）等维度，对其2022的业绩支撑和价值走向有一个大概的展望和把握。/ 01 /产能、市场齐释放海尔智家站在哪个位置？根植于当下，用未来的眼光看待2022年，大的方向上，随着产业链外部负面（原材料、海运费等）因素逐步消退以及疫苗接种普及、疫情防控常态化，从中国市场到全球市场，家电行业供需两端承压的局面都将得到大的改善。2022年，中国经济的大气象仍然是稳中有进，且受益于城镇化率进一步提高、共同富裕政策推进，以及近期楼市松动的迹象，消费重拾增长轨道甚至小小爆发一下应该都是大概率的事儿，全球市场大抵也如此。谨慎乐观而言，作为生活必需品的家电，将会迎来一个相对景气周期。此时，谁能持续释放产能，快速响应市场需求，谁就能抓住市场机遇。2021年，海尔智家在印度、欧洲新投产3个工厂，年产能超525万台，这些产能将在2022年进一步释放；2021年新奠基的3个工厂也将在2022年相继投产，预计投产后海外的2个工厂年产能将超200万台，国内的工厂年产值将超100亿元。图源：市场公开资料为什么海尔智家有这样的底气？说到底，30多年来积累的规模优势、品牌优势，长期对海外市场的布局等，让海尔智家站到了行业发展的中轴线上。世界权威调研机构欧睿国际数据显示，2021年海尔全球大型家用电器品牌零售量第一，第13次蝉","listText":"文 / 七公出品 / 节点财经刚刚过去的2021年，要说制造业艰难估计无人反对，但再艰难的日子，也总有逆势而上者，比如海尔智家。数据显示，2021前三季度，海尔智家营收、归母净利润分别增长10.07%、57.68%，利润增速创出行业最快；在二级市场，家居板块2021全年整体收跌，但海尔智家A股和H股年线均收红，尤其是H股，涨幅高达17.25%。不过，就像莎翁所言：过往一切，皆为序章。对资本市场来说，更重要的是思考未来。那么，2022年海尔智家业绩走势如何？我们试图透过产能、机制、赛道（产品结构）等维度，对其2022的业绩支撑和价值走向有一个大概的展望和把握。/ 01 /产能、市场齐释放海尔智家站在哪个位置？根植于当下，用未来的眼光看待2022年，大的方向上，随着产业链外部负面（原材料、海运费等）因素逐步消退以及疫苗接种普及、疫情防控常态化，从中国市场到全球市场，家电行业供需两端承压的局面都将得到大的改善。2022年，中国经济的大气象仍然是稳中有进，且受益于城镇化率进一步提高、共同富裕政策推进，以及近期楼市松动的迹象，消费重拾增长轨道甚至小小爆发一下应该都是大概率的事儿，全球市场大抵也如此。谨慎乐观而言，作为生活必需品的家电，将会迎来一个相对景气周期。此时，谁能持续释放产能，快速响应市场需求，谁就能抓住市场机遇。2021年，海尔智家在印度、欧洲新投产3个工厂，年产能超525万台，这些产能将在2022年进一步释放；2021年新奠基的3个工厂也将在2022年相继投产，预计投产后海外的2个工厂年产能将超200万台，国内的工厂年产值将超100亿元。图源：市场公开资料为什么海尔智家有这样的底气？说到底，30多年来积累的规模优势、品牌优势，长期对海外市场的布局等，让海尔智家站到了行业发展的中轴线上。世界权威调研机构欧睿国际数据显示，2021年海尔全球大型家用电器品牌零售量第一，第13次蝉","text":"文 / 七公出品 / 节点财经刚刚过去的2021年，要说制造业艰难估计无人反对，但再艰难的日子，也总有逆势而上者，比如海尔智家。数据显示，2021前三季度，海尔智家营收、归母净利润分别增长10.07%、57.68%，利润增速创出行业最快；在二级市场，家居板块2021全年整体收跌，但海尔智家A股和H股年线均收红，尤其是H股，涨幅高达17.25%。不过，就像莎翁所言：过往一切，皆为序章。对资本市场来说，更重要的是思考未来。那么，2022年海尔智家业绩走势如何？我们试图透过产能、机制、赛道（产品结构）等维度，对其2022的业绩支撑和价值走向有一个大概的展望和把握。/ 01 /产能、市场齐释放海尔智家站在哪个位置？根植于当下，用未来的眼光看待2022年，大的方向上，随着产业链外部负面（原材料、海运费等）因素逐步消退以及疫苗接种普及、疫情防控常态化，从中国市场到全球市场，家电行业供需两端承压的局面都将得到大的改善。2022年，中国经济的大气象仍然是稳中有进，且受益于城镇化率进一步提高、共同富裕政策推进，以及近期楼市松动的迹象，消费重拾增长轨道甚至小小爆发一下应该都是大概率的事儿，全球市场大抵也如此。谨慎乐观而言，作为生活必需品的家电，将会迎来一个相对景气周期。此时，谁能持续释放产能，快速响应市场需求，谁就能抓住市场机遇。2021年，海尔智家在印度、欧洲新投产3个工厂，年产能超525万台，这些产能将在2022年进一步释放；2021年新奠基的3个工厂也将在2022年相继投产，预计投产后海外的2个工厂年产能将超200万台，国内的工厂年产值将超100亿元。图源：市场公开资料为什么海尔智家有这样的底气？说到底，30多年来积累的规模优势、品牌优势，长期对海外市场的布局等，让海尔智家站到了行业发展的中轴线上。世界权威调研机构欧睿国际数据显示，2021年海尔全球大型家用电器品牌零售量第一，第13次蝉","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d2cd84a19111a0a5c2aa0e7d11df21e"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a0f35ef4d955a69f5d3b8daf7a711e2"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/781405d5cf91f2b7a08b508f4f88269f"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/697727251","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2400,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":630940884,"gmtCreate":1642677388155,"gmtModify":1642677388235,"author":{"id":"4099529441829710","authorId":"4099529441829710","name":"Ethan 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it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630940884","repostId":"630987995","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":630987995,"gmtCreate":1642667067676,"gmtModify":1744960783401,"author":{"id":"21347731130544","authorId":"21347731130544","name":"价值投资为王","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89ffffc59ff9ac9cb9cb74f596418d44","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"21347731130544","authorIdStr":"21347731130544"},"themes":[],"title":"美股陨落，港股崛起，2022全球成长股看香江！","htmlText":"2021年，港股恒生指数下跌14%，垫底全球所有股指，丢煞国人脸面，尤其是2021年初，内资南下，曾一度叫嚣“跨过香江去，争夺定价权”。定价权没拿到，悉数给外资高位接了盘。这股憋屈，有望在2022年翻身农奴把歌唱了！新年伊始，美股科技成长股屡屡大跌，苹果年内下跌6%、英伟达下跌15%、阿斯麦下跌12%、AMD下跌11%...这一月份尚未过去，年内跌幅已高达15%，这让习惯了美股慢牛的投资者如何忍受？风水轮流转，今年到港股，不同于美股成长股的萎靡不振，港股互联网巨头开启轰轰烈烈的反弹，其中，腾讯控股年内上涨3%、阿里巴巴上涨8%、美团5%、京东集团10%、快手25%...即使2021年糟糕透顶的恒生指数，2022年也涨了6%！而纳斯达克指数则下跌8%！港美为何走出截然不同的走势？2020年，疫情突袭全球，对消费和制造等传统行业予以重创，人民居家工作和学习时间拉长，互联网和科技行业恰好作为受益者，不仅盈利能力不受疫情影响，反而实现大增。因此，港股和美股的互联网巨头及科技股基本同步大涨。而时间转到2021年，我国开展互联网整顿，打击教培，一系列政策铁拳袭来，互联网巨头应声倒下，加上大跌之前估值高企，一轮戴维斯双杀就这样笼罩了港股市场整整一年。时光跨入2022年，互联网行业的反垄断仍在进行中，但相关概念股却不再创新低，而是走上了反弹的步伐，为何？只因股价大跌，提前释放了估值风险，而一系列政策打击后，多数互联网巨头的估值进入低估状态。当估值变得便宜的时候，资金便会蜂拥而至，所谓的利空消息反而成了低价吸筹的好机会。从恒生指数历年估值来看，2021年底对应的估值仅有10PE，处于历史低估区域：虽然最近10年，恒生指数曾在2016年时估值低到8PE，然而时过境迁，当下恒生指数的构成已经由金融能源转变为信息技术和可选消费，这两个行业的估值和前景可比金融能源好很多。从几个代表性个股来看，如苹果","listText":"2021年，港股恒生指数下跌14%，垫底全球所有股指，丢煞国人脸面，尤其是2021年初，内资南下，曾一度叫嚣“跨过香江去，争夺定价权”。定价权没拿到，悉数给外资高位接了盘。这股憋屈，有望在2022年翻身农奴把歌唱了！新年伊始，美股科技成长股屡屡大跌，苹果年内下跌6%、英伟达下跌15%、阿斯麦下跌12%、AMD下跌11%...这一月份尚未过去，年内跌幅已高达15%，这让习惯了美股慢牛的投资者如何忍受？风水轮流转，今年到港股，不同于美股成长股的萎靡不振，港股互联网巨头开启轰轰烈烈的反弹，其中，腾讯控股年内上涨3%、阿里巴巴上涨8%、美团5%、京东集团10%、快手25%...即使2021年糟糕透顶的恒生指数，2022年也涨了6%！而纳斯达克指数则下跌8%！港美为何走出截然不同的走势？2020年，疫情突袭全球，对消费和制造等传统行业予以重创，人民居家工作和学习时间拉长，互联网和科技行业恰好作为受益者，不仅盈利能力不受疫情影响，反而实现大增。因此，港股和美股的互联网巨头及科技股基本同步大涨。而时间转到2021年，我国开展互联网整顿，打击教培，一系列政策铁拳袭来，互联网巨头应声倒下，加上大跌之前估值高企，一轮戴维斯双杀就这样笼罩了港股市场整整一年。时光跨入2022年，互联网行业的反垄断仍在进行中，但相关概念股却不再创新低，而是走上了反弹的步伐，为何？只因股价大跌，提前释放了估值风险，而一系列政策打击后，多数互联网巨头的估值进入低估状态。当估值变得便宜的时候，资金便会蜂拥而至，所谓的利空消息反而成了低价吸筹的好机会。从恒生指数历年估值来看，2021年底对应的估值仅有10PE，处于历史低估区域：虽然最近10年，恒生指数曾在2016年时估值低到8PE，然而时过境迁，当下恒生指数的构成已经由金融能源转变为信息技术和可选消费，这两个行业的估值和前景可比金融能源好很多。从几个代表性个股来看，如苹果","text":"2021年，港股恒生指数下跌14%，垫底全球所有股指，丢煞国人脸面，尤其是2021年初，内资南下，曾一度叫嚣“跨过香江去，争夺定价权”。定价权没拿到，悉数给外资高位接了盘。这股憋屈，有望在2022年翻身农奴把歌唱了！新年伊始，美股科技成长股屡屡大跌，苹果年内下跌6%、英伟达下跌15%、阿斯麦下跌12%、AMD下跌11%...这一月份尚未过去，年内跌幅已高达15%，这让习惯了美股慢牛的投资者如何忍受？风水轮流转，今年到港股，不同于美股成长股的萎靡不振，港股互联网巨头开启轰轰烈烈的反弹，其中，腾讯控股年内上涨3%、阿里巴巴上涨8%、美团5%、京东集团10%、快手25%...即使2021年糟糕透顶的恒生指数，2022年也涨了6%！而纳斯达克指数则下跌8%！港美为何走出截然不同的走势？2020年，疫情突袭全球，对消费和制造等传统行业予以重创，人民居家工作和学习时间拉长，互联网和科技行业恰好作为受益者，不仅盈利能力不受疫情影响，反而实现大增。因此，港股和美股的互联网巨头及科技股基本同步大涨。而时间转到2021年，我国开展互联网整顿，打击教培，一系列政策铁拳袭来，互联网巨头应声倒下，加上大跌之前估值高企，一轮戴维斯双杀就这样笼罩了港股市场整整一年。时光跨入2022年，互联网行业的反垄断仍在进行中，但相关概念股却不再创新低，而是走上了反弹的步伐，为何？只因股价大跌，提前释放了估值风险，而一系列政策打击后，多数互联网巨头的估值进入低估状态。当估值变得便宜的时候，资金便会蜂拥而至，所谓的利空消息反而成了低价吸筹的好机会。从恒生指数历年估值来看，2021年底对应的估值仅有10PE，处于历史低估区域：虽然最近10年，恒生指数曾在2016年时估值低到8PE，然而时过境迁，当下恒生指数的构成已经由金融能源转变为信息技术和可选消费，这两个行业的估值和前景可比金融能源好很多。从几个代表性个股来看，如苹果","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce3181985d46405ddb500bf09b89c4e0","width":"632","height":"166"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e4195268e1cfdd9a5bde51c88cdf782","width":"632","height":"429"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb3dccc5428401ac7bc533c231ad2c01","width":"632","height":"370"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630987995","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1959,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":630950508,"gmtCreate":1642673821067,"gmtModify":1642673821173,"author":{"id":"4099529441829710","authorId":"4099529441829710","name":"Ethan Ooi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4582faaea3eeb3a8816269a8ac4f567b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099529441829710","authorIdStr":"4099529441829710"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630950508","repostId":"2204106103","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1375,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":630095419,"gmtCreate":1642624219501,"gmtModify":1642624221490,"author":{"id":"4099529441829710","authorId":"4099529441829710","name":"Ethan Ooi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4582faaea3eeb3a8816269a8ac4f567b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099529441829710","authorIdStr":"4099529441829710"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630095419","repostId":"1182201268","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1182201268","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1642552167,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1182201268?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-19 08:29","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"英伟达VS台积电，哪个是更好的半导体股票？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182201268","media":"猛兽财经","summary":"$英伟达$和$台积电$都是是世界级的半导体公司。台积电是无晶圆厂结构，而英伟达依赖台积电生产芯片，英伟达还是台积电最重要的客户之一，截至2021年12月，英伟达已经是台积电第六大客户了。英伟达和台积电股票5Y表现。台积电还是领先流程节点的关键参与者，其资本支出中约有80%用于支持其在该领域的投资。考虑到台积电拥有一条延伸至25年的收入跑道，其产能限制似乎是其目前的主要限制。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>都是是世界级的半导体公司。此外，两家公司也都是各自重要的合作伙伴，而不是竞争对手。台积电是无晶圆厂结构，而英伟达依赖台积电生产芯片，英伟达还是台积电最重要的客户之一，截至2021年12月，英伟达已经是台积电第六大客户了。投资者还需要注意的是，与主要竞争对手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>不同的是，台积电并不与客户竞争。它的纯业务方式也有助于巩固与其最大客户<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>的关系，后者是它的独家代工合作伙伴。</p><p>英伟达在推进其技术路线图方面已经取得了巨大的进展。它是加速计算领域无可争议的领导者，拥有世界级的GPU (dGPU)主导地位。此外，它还通过软件堆栈和自动驾驶解决方案扩展了TAM。因此，英伟达现在是一家领先的全栈人工智能技术公司，我们认为它将是未来十年最具影响力的科技巨头之一。</p><p>考虑到他们截然不同的商业模式，要得出结论哪家公司更适合投资者并不是一件容易的事，然而，我们可以通过分析推动他们增长的关键驱动因素来帮助投资者做出决策，哪家公司更适合他们。</p><p><b>英伟达和台积电的股票表现</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa5f7ae54b0ff4f05b05fafc3d24af34\" tg-width=\"675\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>英伟达和台积电股票1Y表现(截至22年1月6日)。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62505d91720a7d6dd54bdc357649e361\" tg-width=\"672\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>英伟达和台积电股票5Y表现(截至22年1月6日)。</p><p>这两只股票都是半导体领域的龙头股票，表现也轻松超过大盘。台积电股票的5年收益率为347%（复合年增长率：34.7%），而英伟达股票则以5年956%的收益率（复合年增长率：59.9%）成为明显的赢家。但是，如果我们仔细观察一下他们各自1年的表现，就会发现台积电股票的表现低于其5年的平均水平。它的1年回报率为17.8%，也远低于英伟达股票的115.8%。因此，考虑到台积电作为代工行业的领导者所扮演的关键角色，他们的分叉轨迹也令投资者(包括我们)感到困惑。因此，我们需要考虑台积电是否能从盘整阶段恢复到5年的回报率。此外，对于英伟达的投资者来说，考虑到该公司过去两年的巨大收益，英伟达的投资者也必须评估该股的估值是否有被大幅压缩的风险。</p><p><b>台积电未来的主要<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/838275\">驱动力</a>是什么</b></p><p>台积电是半导体价值链的关键参与者。随着时间的推移，它一直保持着超过50%的代工市场份额(不包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>)。TrendForce预计，台积电在21年第三季度的代工市场份额为53.1%，远高于三星的17.1%。台积电还是领先流程节点的关键参与者，其资本支出中约有80%用于支持其在该领域的投资。因此，该公司的增长主要是由5G手机升级、物联网、高性能计算和自动驾驶等长期驱动因素支撑的。考虑到为苹果公司代工占到台积电25%的收入份额，所以，台积电和苹果公司有着极其紧密的关系也就不足为奇了。值得注意的是，苹果公司完全依赖台积电生产芯片。此外，苹果并不是唯一一个完全依赖台积电生产芯片的客户。世界上最大的移动芯片开发商联发科技也依赖于台积电独家生产其芯片，并是台积电的第二大客户。联发科还透露，计划在5G移动芯片领域与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a>（QCOM）展开更积极的竞争。这是一个高通占据领先地位的细分市场，但联发科渴望扩展并占据更大的市场份额。因此，考虑到联发科的雄心，这对台积电来说是个好兆头。此外，台积电的第三大客户<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>也完全依赖于台积电的7nm及以下工艺生产。随着AMD对超大规模产品和企业数据中心市场的关注日益增加，它将需要更多的依赖台积电的发展。因此，我们认为台积电能否继续保持其在领先流程节点的领先地位至关重要。</p><p>此外，即使台积电今年计划投入300亿美元的大规模资本支出，也可能不足以满足其需求。考虑到台积电拥有一条延伸至25年的收入跑道，其产能限制似乎是其目前的主要限制。因此，当Digitimes最近报道台积电计划在2022年将资本支出再增加200亿美元时，我们并不感到意外。</p><p>【台积电拥有强大的7nm、6nm、5nm和4nm制程制造订单，以及成熟的28nm芯片订单，而28nm芯片的供应已经紧张，这对许多纯晶圆代工厂构成了挑战。因此，台积电的三年资本支出计划可能仍不足以满足其产能扩张的需求，据工厂工具制造商的消息人士称，台积电可能向其资本支出计划再投入200亿美元（Digitimes）。】</p><p><b>英伟达未来的主要驱动力是什么</b></p><p>英伟达在dGPU市场的领先地位是毋庸置疑的，尽管AMD在2022年国际消费电子展上发布了新的GPU，以及英特尔(INTC)也推出了Arc dGPU，但是，英伟达还是对其市场领导地位充满信心。英伟达的首席财务官Colette Kres表示：</p><p>【我们对dGPU领域的竞争并不陌生。这是我们历史上非常重要的一部分，我们将继续致力于为消费者市场打造最好的dGPU。我们的品牌屹立不倒是有原因的。这不仅仅是一个重要的芯片架构。还是一个围绕我们为客户提供的整体芯片解决方案而建立7的一个完整的生态系统。现在，我们看到的是我们的性能和整体架构已经超越他们了，未来我们将继续努力向前发展。(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>科技/ 2022国际消费电子展汽车论坛)】</p><p>Colette Kres没有吹牛，而且有充分的理由可以证明他所说的话，（关于这一点我们在之前的文章中有过很多解释），因为英伟达有好几个可以利用其硬件堆栈产生数十美元收入的机会。比如英伟达表示其AI Enterprise堆栈（该公司也是推动许多汽车制造商自动驾驶技术的关键参与者之一）每年就可以为它带来50亿美元的收入机会。其NVIDIA Hyperion 8也有望为其合并后的产品线带来可观的收入，它强调其汽车堆栈产品的年收入将会增加到80亿美元，值得注意的是，在最近的发布会上，Kress还谈到了英伟达的NVIDIA Omniverse堆栈，并预计Omniverse可以接触到4000万设计师、人工智能工程师和创作者，每人每年支付1000美元的话，这将是一个巨大的机会，Omniverse带来的巨大商机可能每年会为英伟达带来400亿美元的收入机会。我们非常确定，这些机会并没有被充分考虑进英伟达的收入和盈利预测中。由于这些都是软件收入，英伟达应该还会获得可观的运营杠杆，这应该会进一步增加其目前的硬件盈利能力。</p><p><b>那么，哪只股票更好呢?</b></p><p>毫无疑问，市场对英伟达股票的估值要高得多。其EV/NTM EBITDA为55.6倍，显著高于3Y平均值44.1倍。虽然台积电的股价也高于其3Y平均值11倍，但其13.1倍的NTM EBITDA却远低于英伟达的估值倍数。</p><p>因此，我们认为，毫无疑问，CEO黄仁勋需要在未来五到十年里出色而完美地执行才能实现这些机会。这些机会可能会在未来决定英伟达的估值。因此，英伟达如何通过出色的执行来实现公司的潜力将会变得非常重要，如果你对英伟达的交付能力非常有信心，那么在当前的机会增加头寸是非常合理的，而且我们认为该公司并没有被严重高估。</p><p>相比之下，我们之前也分享过，鉴于台积电目前仍处于盘整阶段，所以台积电股票的估值看起来仍然很有吸引力。因此，我们认为，台积电股票为投资者提供了一个有吸引力的机会。</p><p>因此，我们在投资组合中都持有这两支股票，并相信它们是科技投资者的基石股票。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1586862168255","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>英伟达VS台积电，哪个是更好的半导体股票？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n英伟达VS台积电，哪个是更好的半导体股票？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-19 08:29 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/OHsN3KcJ8OQhCCX0HSckbg><strong>猛兽财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>英伟达和台积电都是是世界级的半导体公司。此外，两家公司也都是各自重要的合作伙伴，而不是竞争对手。台积电是无晶圆厂结构，而英伟达依赖台积电生产芯片，英伟达还是台积电最重要的客户之一，截至2021年12月，英伟达已经是台积电第六大客户了。投资者还需要注意的是，与主要竞争对手三星不同的是，台积电并不与客户竞争。它的纯业务方式也有助于巩固与其最大客户苹果的关系，后者是它的独家代工合作伙伴。英伟达在推进其...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/OHsN3KcJ8OQhCCX0HSckbg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a1a8c5698b6f32ee1637556a15bb35b","relate_stocks":{"BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","NVDA":"英伟达","03145":"华夏亚洲高息股","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4529":"IDC概念","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4543":"AI","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4512":"苹果概念","BK4141":"半导体产品","TSM":"台积电","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","EWT":"台湾ETF-iShares MSCI","BK4567":"ESG概念"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/OHsN3KcJ8OQhCCX0HSckbg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182201268","content_text":"英伟达和台积电都是是世界级的半导体公司。此外，两家公司也都是各自重要的合作伙伴，而不是竞争对手。台积电是无晶圆厂结构，而英伟达依赖台积电生产芯片，英伟达还是台积电最重要的客户之一，截至2021年12月，英伟达已经是台积电第六大客户了。投资者还需要注意的是，与主要竞争对手三星不同的是，台积电并不与客户竞争。它的纯业务方式也有助于巩固与其最大客户苹果的关系，后者是它的独家代工合作伙伴。英伟达在推进其技术路线图方面已经取得了巨大的进展。它是加速计算领域无可争议的领导者，拥有世界级的GPU (dGPU)主导地位。此外，它还通过软件堆栈和自动驾驶解决方案扩展了TAM。因此，英伟达现在是一家领先的全栈人工智能技术公司，我们认为它将是未来十年最具影响力的科技巨头之一。考虑到他们截然不同的商业模式，要得出结论哪家公司更适合投资者并不是一件容易的事，然而，我们可以通过分析推动他们增长的关键驱动因素来帮助投资者做出决策，哪家公司更适合他们。英伟达和台积电的股票表现英伟达和台积电股票1Y表现(截至22年1月6日)。英伟达和台积电股票5Y表现(截至22年1月6日)。这两只股票都是半导体领域的龙头股票，表现也轻松超过大盘。台积电股票的5年收益率为347%（复合年增长率：34.7%），而英伟达股票则以5年956%的收益率（复合年增长率：59.9%）成为明显的赢家。但是，如果我们仔细观察一下他们各自1年的表现，就会发现台积电股票的表现低于其5年的平均水平。它的1年回报率为17.8%，也远低于英伟达股票的115.8%。因此，考虑到台积电作为代工行业的领导者所扮演的关键角色，他们的分叉轨迹也令投资者(包括我们)感到困惑。因此，我们需要考虑台积电是否能从盘整阶段恢复到5年的回报率。此外，对于英伟达的投资者来说，考虑到该公司过去两年的巨大收益，英伟达的投资者也必须评估该股的估值是否有被大幅压缩的风险。台积电未来的主要驱动力是什么台积电是半导体价值链的关键参与者。随着时间的推移，它一直保持着超过50%的代工市场份额(不包括英特尔)。TrendForce预计，台积电在21年第三季度的代工市场份额为53.1%，远高于三星的17.1%。台积电还是领先流程节点的关键参与者，其资本支出中约有80%用于支持其在该领域的投资。因此，该公司的增长主要是由5G手机升级、物联网、高性能计算和自动驾驶等长期驱动因素支撑的。考虑到为苹果公司代工占到台积电25%的收入份额，所以，台积电和苹果公司有着极其紧密的关系也就不足为奇了。值得注意的是，苹果公司完全依赖台积电生产芯片。此外，苹果并不是唯一一个完全依赖台积电生产芯片的客户。世界上最大的移动芯片开发商联发科技也依赖于台积电独家生产其芯片，并是台积电的第二大客户。联发科还透露，计划在5G移动芯片领域与高通（QCOM）展开更积极的竞争。这是一个高通占据领先地位的细分市场，但联发科渴望扩展并占据更大的市场份额。因此，考虑到联发科的雄心，这对台积电来说是个好兆头。此外，台积电的第三大客户AMD也完全依赖于台积电的7nm及以下工艺生产。随着AMD对超大规模产品和企业数据中心市场的关注日益增加，它将需要更多的依赖台积电的发展。因此，我们认为台积电能否继续保持其在领先流程节点的领先地位至关重要。此外，即使台积电今年计划投入300亿美元的大规模资本支出，也可能不足以满足其需求。考虑到台积电拥有一条延伸至25年的收入跑道，其产能限制似乎是其目前的主要限制。因此，当Digitimes最近报道台积电计划在2022年将资本支出再增加200亿美元时，我们并不感到意外。【台积电拥有强大的7nm、6nm、5nm和4nm制程制造订单，以及成熟的28nm芯片订单，而28nm芯片的供应已经紧张，这对许多纯晶圆代工厂构成了挑战。因此，台积电的三年资本支出计划可能仍不足以满足其产能扩张的需求，据工厂工具制造商的消息人士称，台积电可能向其资本支出计划再投入200亿美元（Digitimes）。】英伟达未来的主要驱动力是什么英伟达在dGPU市场的领先地位是毋庸置疑的，尽管AMD在2022年国际消费电子展上发布了新的GPU，以及英特尔(INTC)也推出了Arc dGPU，但是，英伟达还是对其市场领导地位充满信心。英伟达的首席财务官Colette Kres表示：【我们对dGPU领域的竞争并不陌生。这是我们历史上非常重要的一部分，我们将继续致力于为消费者市场打造最好的dGPU。我们的品牌屹立不倒是有原因的。这不仅仅是一个重要的芯片架构。还是一个围绕我们为客户提供的整体芯片解决方案而建立7的一个完整的生态系统。现在，我们看到的是我们的性能和整体架构已经超越他们了，未来我们将继续努力向前发展。(摩根大通科技/ 2022国际消费电子展汽车论坛)】Colette Kres没有吹牛，而且有充分的理由可以证明他所说的话，（关于这一点我们在之前的文章中有过很多解释），因为英伟达有好几个可以利用其硬件堆栈产生数十美元收入的机会。比如英伟达表示其AI Enterprise堆栈（该公司也是推动许多汽车制造商自动驾驶技术的关键参与者之一）每年就可以为它带来50亿美元的收入机会。其NVIDIA Hyperion 8也有望为其合并后的产品线带来可观的收入，它强调其汽车堆栈产品的年收入将会增加到80亿美元，值得注意的是，在最近的发布会上，Kress还谈到了英伟达的NVIDIA Omniverse堆栈，并预计Omniverse可以接触到4000万设计师、人工智能工程师和创作者，每人每年支付1000美元的话，这将是一个巨大的机会，Omniverse带来的巨大商机可能每年会为英伟达带来400亿美元的收入机会。我们非常确定，这些机会并没有被充分考虑进英伟达的收入和盈利预测中。由于这些都是软件收入，英伟达应该还会获得可观的运营杠杆，这应该会进一步增加其目前的硬件盈利能力。那么，哪只股票更好呢?毫无疑问，市场对英伟达股票的估值要高得多。其EV/NTM EBITDA为55.6倍，显著高于3Y平均值44.1倍。虽然台积电的股价也高于其3Y平均值11倍，但其13.1倍的NTM EBITDA却远低于英伟达的估值倍数。因此，我们认为，毫无疑问，CEO黄仁勋需要在未来五到十年里出色而完美地执行才能实现这些机会。这些机会可能会在未来决定英伟达的估值。因此，英伟达如何通过出色的执行来实现公司的潜力将会变得非常重要，如果你对英伟达的交付能力非常有信心，那么在当前的机会增加头寸是非常合理的，而且我们认为该公司并没有被严重高估。相比之下，我们之前也分享过，鉴于台积电目前仍处于盘整阶段，所以台积电股票的估值看起来仍然很有吸引力。因此，我们认为，台积电股票为投资者提供了一个有吸引力的机会。因此，我们在投资组合中都持有这两支股票，并相信它们是科技投资者的基石股票。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"03145":0.9,"EWT":0.9,"NVDA":0.9,"TSM":0.9,"TWmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":233,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":630095088,"gmtCreate":1642623902879,"gmtModify":1642623903092,"author":{"id":"4099529441829710","authorId":"4099529441829710","name":"Ethan Ooi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4582faaea3eeb3a8816269a8ac4f567b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099529441829710","authorIdStr":"4099529441829710"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630095088","repostId":"697710703","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":697710703,"gmtCreate":1642588320000,"gmtModify":1741599100927,"author":{"id":"3524030243818067","authorId":"3524030243818067","name":"4207f134","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ebc2483f5c94ab5917a7ec0eb2e1f05","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3524030243818067","authorIdStr":"3524030243818067"},"themes":[],"title":"洪灏：港股显示深度配置价值，抓住市场拐点比选股重要","htmlText":"编者按 2021年全年香港市场表现欠佳，有分析将这一切归咎于中国互联网行业所面临的强监管态势，但是交银国际洪灝认为，强监管只是表象，防止投机资本流入国内市场才是深层原因，并且在这种强监管下，香港已经开始显示出深度配置价值。 在1月17日由《巴伦周刊》中文版和洪灝联合打造的《巴伦灝问》直播课中，洪灝也强调了港股市场在2022年的配置价值。在收紧的香港流动性和国内强监管态势的双重影响下，香港已跌入价值洼地。市场见底是一个险象环生的过程，投资者如何能在市场拐点抓住机遇，往往比选择哪一只股票来的更重要。 “悲伤和绝望中蕴藏着巨大的力量。”—— 查尔斯·狄更斯，《双城记》 为什么，2021年全年香港市场表现欠佳？更重要的是，为什么，尽管香港和上海并称中国举足轻重的两大市场，但是香港的表现今年却远逊于上海?事实上，包括中国的美国存托凭证（ADRs）、中国互联网公司和恒生科技指数在内的中国所有离岸股指的表现都跑输了在岸股指。然而，无论股指在岸还是离岸，都理应无一例外地如实反映中国经济的基本面。 中国经济增速在2021年有所放缓，但其货币政策的选择与西方央行的政策路径相悖。经济减速的态势从规模以上的工业增加值、采购经理人指数和固定资产投资等多项宏观经济数据中可见一斑。此外，恒生指数在今年2月前后触顶，与宏观经济开始减速慢行的时点吻合。然而，上证综指却仍保持韧性和定力，全年勉强小幅收涨，与恒指2月后下行的走势大相径庭(图表1)。 有分析将这一切归咎于中国互联网行业所面临的强监管态势。诚然——头部互联网平台公司大都奔赴海外上市，它们的弱势在一定程度上令跌跌不休的恒指雪上加霜。其实，在我们去年11月发布2021年展望报告时，我们曾直言不讳地将当时的中国科技公司的估值称作“泡沫”，并敦促投资者避而远之转而做多大宗商品。但又如何解释那些在香港上市的国内消费和医疗板块龙头企业——它们并未受监管风暴波及","listText":"编者按 2021年全年香港市场表现欠佳，有分析将这一切归咎于中国互联网行业所面临的强监管态势，但是交银国际洪灝认为，强监管只是表象，防止投机资本流入国内市场才是深层原因，并且在这种强监管下，香港已经开始显示出深度配置价值。 在1月17日由《巴伦周刊》中文版和洪灝联合打造的《巴伦灝问》直播课中，洪灝也强调了港股市场在2022年的配置价值。在收紧的香港流动性和国内强监管态势的双重影响下，香港已跌入价值洼地。市场见底是一个险象环生的过程，投资者如何能在市场拐点抓住机遇，往往比选择哪一只股票来的更重要。 “悲伤和绝望中蕴藏着巨大的力量。”—— 查尔斯·狄更斯，《双城记》 为什么，2021年全年香港市场表现欠佳？更重要的是，为什么，尽管香港和上海并称中国举足轻重的两大市场，但是香港的表现今年却远逊于上海?事实上，包括中国的美国存托凭证（ADRs）、中国互联网公司和恒生科技指数在内的中国所有离岸股指的表现都跑输了在岸股指。然而，无论股指在岸还是离岸，都理应无一例外地如实反映中国经济的基本面。 中国经济增速在2021年有所放缓，但其货币政策的选择与西方央行的政策路径相悖。经济减速的态势从规模以上的工业增加值、采购经理人指数和固定资产投资等多项宏观经济数据中可见一斑。此外，恒生指数在今年2月前后触顶，与宏观经济开始减速慢行的时点吻合。然而，上证综指却仍保持韧性和定力，全年勉强小幅收涨，与恒指2月后下行的走势大相径庭(图表1)。 有分析将这一切归咎于中国互联网行业所面临的强监管态势。诚然——头部互联网平台公司大都奔赴海外上市，它们的弱势在一定程度上令跌跌不休的恒指雪上加霜。其实，在我们去年11月发布2021年展望报告时，我们曾直言不讳地将当时的中国科技公司的估值称作“泡沫”，并敦促投资者避而远之转而做多大宗商品。但又如何解释那些在香港上市的国内消费和医疗板块龙头企业——它们并未受监管风暴波及","text":"编者按 2021年全年香港市场表现欠佳，有分析将这一切归咎于中国互联网行业所面临的强监管态势，但是交银国际洪灝认为，强监管只是表象，防止投机资本流入国内市场才是深层原因，并且在这种强监管下，香港已经开始显示出深度配置价值。 在1月17日由《巴伦周刊》中文版和洪灝联合打造的《巴伦灝问》直播课中，洪灝也强调了港股市场在2022年的配置价值。在收紧的香港流动性和国内强监管态势的双重影响下，香港已跌入价值洼地。市场见底是一个险象环生的过程，投资者如何能在市场拐点抓住机遇，往往比选择哪一只股票来的更重要。 “悲伤和绝望中蕴藏着巨大的力量。”—— 查尔斯·狄更斯，《双城记》 为什么，2021年全年香港市场表现欠佳？更重要的是，为什么，尽管香港和上海并称中国举足轻重的两大市场，但是香港的表现今年却远逊于上海?事实上，包括中国的美国存托凭证（ADRs）、中国互联网公司和恒生科技指数在内的中国所有离岸股指的表现都跑输了在岸股指。然而，无论股指在岸还是离岸，都理应无一例外地如实反映中国经济的基本面。 中国经济增速在2021年有所放缓，但其货币政策的选择与西方央行的政策路径相悖。经济减速的态势从规模以上的工业增加值、采购经理人指数和固定资产投资等多项宏观经济数据中可见一斑。此外，恒生指数在今年2月前后触顶，与宏观经济开始减速慢行的时点吻合。然而，上证综指却仍保持韧性和定力，全年勉强小幅收涨，与恒指2月后下行的走势大相径庭(图表1)。 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