Leooooyy的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Leooooyy

Leooooyy

暂无个人介绍

IP属地：上海

27关注

43粉丝

0主题

0勋章

2024-09-29

$YINN 20250117 32.0 CALL$

08-26 22:08

$纳斯达克中国金龙指数(HXC)$ 小荷才露尖尖角

03-12

$TSLA 20250516 230.0 PUT$

03-12

$TSLA 20250516 230.0 PUT$ 短期的反弹为继续做空提供了一个好的价格。美股经济的“排毒期”才刚刚开始

02-28

$TSLA 20250404 270.0 PUT$ 继续做空

02-27

小米已经在吹泡泡阶段了……

02-11

$YINN 20250417 40.0 CALL$ 我和中国资产的缘分一直很好

06-06

$TSLA 20250703 290.0 PUT$ 终于等到开撕，做空的好时候来了。川普几乎和第一任期的所有重臣都闹翻了，有些还成了死敌。。老马危矣。

07-19

我平仓了10手$BABA 20251017 120.0 CALL$ ,获利了结一部分阿里期权回收保证金。看好阿里后期走势！

07-16

我开仓了2手$TSM 20250808 250.0 CALL$ ,正股备兑卖call。这里有点贪心，看看这单结果如何吧希望不会call飞

06-13

我开仓了500.0股$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$ ,继续买入

06-12

我开仓了800.0股$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$ ,小鹏大众深度合作出海才是中国新能源车的未来！强烈看多小鹏

03-14

$TSLA 20250516 230.0 PUT$ 空单止盈，暂时不看空，等待趋势明朗后再决定交易方向

2022-08-10

如果油价真的长期处于高位，只会促进能源转型最终抑制石油需求

“油价将在年底飙升”！高盛继续唱多，这是详细的看涨逻辑

07-31

我开仓了$南方两倍做多恒科(07226)$ ,左侧买入

07-23

我平仓了2手$TSM 20250808 250.0 CALL$ ,平仓了，看好台积电后续涨势！这个卖call赚钱了就很好

07-22

我开仓了20手$KWEB 20251219 39.0 CALL$ ,美股早盘下跌把中概价格打下来了，顺势加仓！目前的位置非常看好3个月内向上10%-20%的空间

07-22

我开仓了8手$BABA 20251219 135.0 CALL$ ,去查看订单详情。

07-21

我开仓了40手$KWEB 20251219 39.0 CALL$ ,去查看订单详情。

07-21

我开仓了10手$TCH.HK 20250828 500.00 PUT$ ,腾讯落后指数了，卖put赚点保险金

去老虎APP查看更多动态

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"4118993002447300","uuid":"4118993002447300","gmtCreate":1655889922305,"gmtModify":1692912810912,"name":"Leooooyy","pinyin":"leooooyy","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7648d1d18c43795e4508aa3a658e3fd4","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":43,"headSize":27,"tweetSize":48,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖（非转发）","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-2","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"资深虎友","description":"加入老虎社区1000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.03.19","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-3","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"传说交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到300次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.08.03","exceedPercentage":"93.27%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-3","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资合伙人虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到100万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.03.17","exceedPercentage":"93.90%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.09.27","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.08.09","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"上海","starInvestorFollowerNum":37,"starInvestorFlag":true,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":35,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":14,"ror":363.56,"winRationPercentage":61.714286,"showRor":true,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"hot","tweets":[{"id":471798879297872,"gmtCreate":1756217312177,"gmtModify":1756217313292,"author":{"id":"4118993002447300","authorId":"4118993002447300","name":"Leooooyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7648d1d18c43795e4508aa3a658e3fd4","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118993002447300","authorIdStr":"4118993002447300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HXC\">$纳斯达克中国金龙指数(HXC)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 小荷才露尖尖角","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HXC\">$纳斯达克中国金龙指数(HXC)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 小荷才露尖尖角","text":"$纳斯达克中国金龙指数(HXC)$ 小荷才露尖尖角","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/471798879297872","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":71,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":462726098890912,"gmtCreate":1753976294520,"gmtModify":1754034958115,"author":{"id":"4118993002447300","authorId":"4118993002447300","name":"Leooooyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7648d1d18c43795e4508aa3a658e3fd4","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118993002447300","authorIdStr":"4118993002447300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/07226\">$南方两倍做多恒科(07226)$&nbsp;</a>,左侧买入","listText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/07226\">$南方两倍做多恒科(07226)$&nbsp;</a>,左侧买入","text":"我开仓了$南方两倍做多恒科(07226)$ ,左侧买入","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/462726098890912","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":227,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":459746422690056,"gmtCreate":1753280059486,"gmtModify":1753280326925,"author":{"id":"4118993002447300","authorId":"4118993002447300","name":"Leooooyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7648d1d18c43795e4508aa3a658e3fd4","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118993002447300","authorIdStr":"4118993002447300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我平仓了2手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSM 20250808 250.0 CALL\">$TSM 20250808 250.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a>,平仓了，看好台积电后续涨势！这个卖call赚钱了就很好","listText":"我平仓了2手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSM 20250808 250.0 CALL\">$TSM 20250808 250.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a>,平仓了，看好台积电后续涨势！这个卖call赚钱了就很好","text":"我平仓了2手$TSM 20250808 250.0 CALL$ ,平仓了，看好台积电后续涨势！这个卖call赚钱了就很好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/459746422690056","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":789,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":459332425228528,"gmtCreate":1753192093126,"gmtModify":1754331747917,"author":{"id":"4118993002447300","authorId":"4118993002447300","name":"Leooooyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7648d1d18c43795e4508aa3a658e3fd4","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118993002447300","authorIdStr":"4118993002447300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了20手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/KWEB 20251219 39.0 CALL\">$KWEB 20251219 39.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a>,美股早盘下跌把中概价格打下来了，顺势加仓！目前的位置非常看好3个月内向上10%-20%的空间","listText":"我开仓了20手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/KWEB 20251219 39.0 CALL\">$KWEB 20251219 39.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a>,美股早盘下跌把中概价格打下来了，顺势加仓！目前的位置非常看好3个月内向上10%-20%的空间","text":"我开仓了20手$KWEB 20251219 39.0 CALL$ ,美股早盘下跌把中概价格打下来了，顺势加仓！目前的位置非常看好3个月内向上10%-20%的空间","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/459332425228528","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":541,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":458866455027952,"gmtCreate":1753078330871,"gmtModify":1756385664649,"author":{"id":"4118993002447300","authorId":"4118993002447300","name":"Leooooyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7648d1d18c43795e4508aa3a658e3fd4","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118993002447300","authorIdStr":"4118993002447300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了10手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TCH.HK 20250828 500.00 PUT\">$TCH.HK 20250828 500.00 PUT$&nbsp;</a>,腾讯落后指数了，卖put赚点保险金","listText":"我开仓了10手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TCH.HK 20250828 500.00 PUT\">$TCH.HK 20250828 500.00 PUT$&nbsp;</a>,腾讯落后指数了，卖put赚点保险金","text":"我开仓了10手$TCH.HK 20250828 500.00 PUT$ ,腾讯落后指数了，卖put赚点保险金","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/458866455027952","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":645,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":458006334096128,"gmtCreate":1752855323813,"gmtModify":1752855643884,"author":{"id":"4118993002447300","authorId":"4118993002447300","name":"Leooooyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7648d1d18c43795e4508aa3a658e3fd4","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118993002447300","authorIdStr":"4118993002447300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我平仓了10手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BABA 20251017 120.0 CALL\">$BABA 20251017 120.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a>,获利了结一部分阿里期权回收保证金。看好阿里后期走势！","listText":"我平仓了10手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BABA 20251017 120.0 CALL\">$BABA 20251017 120.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a>,获利了结一部分阿里期权回收保证金。看好阿里后期走势！","text":"我平仓了10手$BABA 20251017 120.0 CALL$ ,获利了结一部分阿里期权回收保证金。看好阿里后期走势！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/458006334096128","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1038,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3479274714184258","authorId":"3479274714184258","name":"阿寻","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba8aa4cb116251d941ecb460f20f465b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3479274714184258","authorIdStr":"3479274714184258"},"content":"回收保证金不错，继续关注阿里走势","text":"回收保证金不错，继续关注阿里走势","html":"回收保证金不错，继续关注阿里走势"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":457264743346584,"gmtCreate":1752673585599,"gmtModify":1753280642266,"author":{"id":"4118993002447300","authorId":"4118993002447300","name":"Leooooyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7648d1d18c43795e4508aa3a658e3fd4","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118993002447300","authorIdStr":"4118993002447300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了2手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSM 20250808 250.0 CALL\">$TSM 20250808 250.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a>,正股备兑 卖call。这里有点贪心 ，看看这单结果如何吧 希望不会call飞","listText":"我开仓了2手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSM 20250808 250.0 CALL\">$TSM 20250808 250.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a>,正股备兑 卖call。这里有点贪心 ，看看这单结果如何吧 希望不会call飞","text":"我开仓了2手$TSM 20250808 250.0 CALL$ ,正股备兑 卖call。这里有点贪心 ，看看这单结果如何吧 希望不会call飞","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/457264743346584","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":523,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":449932722167992,"gmtCreate":1750873672643,"gmtModify":1752855412824,"author":{"id":"4118993002447300","authorId":"4118993002447300","name":"Leooooyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7648d1d18c43795e4508aa3a658e3fd4","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118993002447300","authorIdStr":"4118993002447300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了10手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BABA 20251017 120.0 CALL\">$BABA 20251017 120.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a>,来看看我最新分享的订单！","listText":"我开仓了10手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BABA 20251017 120.0 CALL\">$BABA 20251017 120.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a>,来看看我最新分享的订单！","text":"我开仓了10手$BABA 20251017 120.0 CALL$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/449932722167992","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":995,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":448985664016440,"gmtCreate":1750642570372,"gmtModify":1751002449878,"author":{"id":"4118993002447300","authorId":"4118993002447300","name":"Leooooyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7648d1d18c43795e4508aa3a658e3fd4","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118993002447300","authorIdStr":"4118993002447300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了5000.0股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/07226\">$南方两倍做多恒科(07226)$&nbsp;</a>,看多","listText":"我开仓了5000.0股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/07226\">$南方两倍做多恒科(07226)$&nbsp;</a>,看多","text":"我开仓了5000.0股$南方两倍做多恒科(07226)$ ,看多","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/448985664016440","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1035,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":445789276119272,"gmtCreate":1749841213172,"gmtModify":1756413258630,"author":{"id":"4118993002447300","authorId":"4118993002447300","name":"Leooooyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7648d1d18c43795e4508aa3a658e3fd4","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118993002447300","authorIdStr":"4118993002447300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了60手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/KWEB 20251121 36.0 CALL\">$KWEB 20251121 36.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a>,浅浅买入","listText":"我开仓了60手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/KWEB 20251121 36.0 CALL\">$KWEB 20251121 36.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a>,浅浅买入","text":"我开仓了60手$KWEB 20251121 36.0 CALL$ ,浅浅买入","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/445789276119272","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":941,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":445363767488592,"gmtCreate":1749752882800,"gmtModify":1754920832747,"author":{"id":"4118993002447300","authorId":"4118993002447300","name":"Leooooyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7648d1d18c43795e4508aa3a658e3fd4","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118993002447300","authorIdStr":"4118993002447300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了500.0股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$&nbsp;</a>,继续买入","listText":"我开仓了500.0股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$&nbsp;</a>,继续买入","text":"我开仓了500.0股$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$ ,继续买入","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/445363767488592","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":903,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":445248074027320,"gmtCreate":1749724573244,"gmtModify":1754979767473,"author":{"id":"4118993002447300","authorId":"4118993002447300","name":"Leooooyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7648d1d18c43795e4508aa3a658e3fd4","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118993002447300","authorIdStr":"4118993002447300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了100.0股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$&nbsp;</a>,看好小鹏和大众的合作 拓宽出海渠道","listText":"我开仓了100.0股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$&nbsp;</a>,看好小鹏和大众的合作 拓宽出海渠道","text":"我开仓了100.0股$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$ ,看好小鹏和大众的合作 拓宽出海渠道","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/445248074027320","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":903,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":445248929710832,"gmtCreate":1749724484128,"gmtModify":1754979767522,"author":{"id":"4118993002447300","authorId":"4118993002447300","name":"Leooooyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7648d1d18c43795e4508aa3a658e3fd4","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118993002447300","authorIdStr":"4118993002447300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了800.0股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$&nbsp;</a>,小鹏大众深度合作 出海才是中国新能源车的未来！强烈看多小鹏","listText":"我开仓了800.0股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$&nbsp;</a>,小鹏大众深度合作 出海才是中国新能源车的未来！强烈看多小鹏","text":"我开仓了800.0股$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$ ,小鹏大众深度合作 出海才是中国新能源车的未来！强烈看多小鹏","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/445248929710832","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2061,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":442862913962664,"gmtCreate":1749143179468,"gmtModify":1749144799418,"author":{"id":"4118993002447300","authorId":"4118993002447300","name":"Leooooyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7648d1d18c43795e4508aa3a658e3fd4","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118993002447300","authorIdStr":"4118993002447300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我平仓了4手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20250703 290.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20250703 290.0 PUT$&nbsp;</a>,收菜了。虽然还是看空的，但是他们第二天突然又哥俩好的可能性也存在 落袋为安","listText":"我平仓了4手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20250703 290.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20250703 290.0 PUT$&nbsp;</a>,收菜了。虽然还是看空的，但是他们第二天突然又哥俩好的可能性也存在 落袋为安","text":"我平仓了4手$TSLA 20250703 290.0 PUT$ ,收菜了。虽然还是看空的，但是他们第二天突然又哥俩好的可能性也存在 落袋为安","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/442862913962664","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1002,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":442857108328760,"gmtCreate":1749141746134,"gmtModify":1749141749888,"author":{"id":"4118993002447300","authorId":"4118993002447300","name":"Leooooyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7648d1d18c43795e4508aa3a658e3fd4","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118993002447300","authorIdStr":"4118993002447300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20250703 290.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20250703 290.0 PUT$</a> 终于等到开撕，做空的好时候来了。川普几乎和第一任期的所有重臣都闹翻了，有些还成了死敌。。老马危矣。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20250703 290.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20250703 290.0 PUT$</a> 终于等到开撕，做空的好时候来了。川普几乎和第一任期的所有重臣都闹翻了，有些还成了死敌。。老马危矣。","text":"$TSLA 20250703 290.0 PUT$ 终于等到开撕，做空的好时候来了。川普几乎和第一任期的所有重臣都闹翻了，有些还成了死敌。。老马危矣。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658daab655789e37837a31938aaccbe2","width":"981","height":"1637"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/442857108328760","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2729,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":413119900598784,"gmtCreate":1741891099972,"gmtModify":1741904557724,"author":{"id":"4118993002447300","authorId":"4118993002447300","name":"Leooooyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7648d1d18c43795e4508aa3a658e3fd4","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118993002447300","authorIdStr":"4118993002447300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20250516 230.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20250516 230.0 PUT$</a> 空单止盈，暂时不看空，等待趋势明朗后再决定交易方向","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20250516 230.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20250516 230.0 PUT$</a> 空单止盈，暂时不看空，等待趋势明朗后再决定交易方向","text":"$TSLA 20250516 230.0 PUT$ 空单止盈，暂时不看空，等待趋势明朗后再决定交易方向","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8775c1fe31cea5971380dceb5bb02765","width":"981","height":"1637"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/413119900598784","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":817,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":413119564570936,"gmtCreate":1741891012604,"gmtModify":1741904562249,"author":{"id":"4118993002447300","authorId":"4118993002447300","name":"Leooooyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7648d1d18c43795e4508aa3a658e3fd4","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118993002447300","authorIdStr":"4118993002447300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/QQQ 20250516 470.0 PUT\">$QQQ 20250516 470.0 PUT$</a> 美股空单止盈，下跌势能略有衰减，这里可以休息下等待4月2号后的机会","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/QQQ 20250516 470.0 PUT\">$QQQ 20250516 470.0 PUT$</a> 美股空单止盈，下跌势能略有衰减，这里可以休息下等待4月2号后的机会","text":"$QQQ 20250516 470.0 PUT$ 美股空单止盈，下跌势能略有衰减，这里可以休息下等待4月2号后的机会","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dda79aea092a64833f38d847f543b598","width":"981","height":"1637"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/413119564570936","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":997,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":412650692887008,"gmtCreate":1741772236216,"gmtModify":1741773613343,"author":{"id":"4118993002447300","authorId":"4118993002447300","name":"Leooooyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7648d1d18c43795e4508aa3a658e3fd4","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118993002447300","authorIdStr":"4118993002447300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20250516 230.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20250516 230.0 PUT$</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20250516 230.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20250516 230.0 PUT$</a>&nbsp;","text":"$TSLA 20250516 230.0 PUT$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d38dcdea8ae5a46b9127cf76a62f54dd","width":"981","height":"1637"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/412650692887008","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1459,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":412650947195136,"gmtCreate":1741772177334,"gmtModify":1741773623026,"author":{"id":"4118993002447300","authorId":"4118993002447300","name":"Leooooyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7648d1d18c43795e4508aa3a658e3fd4","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118993002447300","authorIdStr":"4118993002447300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20250516 230.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20250516 230.0 PUT$</a> 短期的反弹为继续做空提供了一个好的价格。美股经济的“排毒期”才刚刚开始","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20250516 230.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20250516 230.0 PUT$</a> 短期的反弹为继续做空提供了一个好的价格。美股经济的“排毒期”才刚刚开始","text":"$TSLA 20250516 230.0 PUT$ 短期的反弹为继续做空提供了一个好的价格。美股经济的“排毒期”才刚刚开始","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d374b8ef5623b4c249d907c1642ad05","width":"981","height":"1637"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/412650947195136","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2407,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4189466494735352","authorId":"4189466494735352","name":"elizabethallen1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6aee6174c9293018a2f674b235347412","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4189466494735352","authorIdStr":"4189466494735352"},"content":"你必将亏死","text":"你必将亏死","html":"你必将亏死"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":408498041541000,"gmtCreate":1740748400362,"gmtModify":1740748892919,"author":{"id":"4118993002447300","authorId":"4118993002447300","name":"Leooooyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7648d1d18c43795e4508aa3a658e3fd4","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118993002447300","authorIdStr":"4118993002447300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20250404 270.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20250404 270.0 PUT$</a> 继续做空","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20250404 270.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20250404 270.0 PUT$</a> 继续做空","text":"$TSLA 20250404 270.0 PUT$ 继续做空","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cc331e553c68cc81b759eedbaf914fb","width":"981","height":"1637"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/408498041541000","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1072,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":354603010814136,"gmtCreate":1727581193498,"gmtModify":1727583968366,"author":{"id":"4118993002447300","authorId":"4118993002447300","name":"Leooooyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7648d1d18c43795e4508aa3a658e3fd4","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118993002447300","authorIdStr":"4118993002447300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/YINN 20250117 32.0 CALL\">$YINN 20250117 32.0 CALL$</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/YINN 20250117 32.0 CALL\">$YINN 20250117 32.0 CALL$</a>&nbsp;","text":"$YINN 20250117 32.0 CALL$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4240cd17294723116ea304c37b43c81","width":"972","height":"1631"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/354603010814136","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1776,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":471798879297872,"gmtCreate":1756217312177,"gmtModify":1756217313292,"author":{"id":"4118993002447300","authorId":"4118993002447300","name":"Leooooyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7648d1d18c43795e4508aa3a658e3fd4","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118993002447300","authorIdStr":"4118993002447300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HXC\">$纳斯达克中国金龙指数(HXC)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 小荷才露尖尖角","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HXC\">$纳斯达克中国金龙指数(HXC)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 小荷才露尖尖角","text":"$纳斯达克中国金龙指数(HXC)$ 小荷才露尖尖角","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/471798879297872","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":71,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":412650692887008,"gmtCreate":1741772236216,"gmtModify":1741773613343,"author":{"id":"4118993002447300","authorId":"4118993002447300","name":"Leooooyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7648d1d18c43795e4508aa3a658e3fd4","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118993002447300","authorIdStr":"4118993002447300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20250516 230.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20250516 230.0 PUT$</a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20250516 230.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20250516 230.0 PUT$</a>&nbsp;","text":"$TSLA 20250516 230.0 PUT$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d38dcdea8ae5a46b9127cf76a62f54dd","width":"981","height":"1637"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/412650692887008","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1459,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":412650947195136,"gmtCreate":1741772177334,"gmtModify":1741773623026,"author":{"id":"4118993002447300","authorId":"4118993002447300","name":"Leooooyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7648d1d18c43795e4508aa3a658e3fd4","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118993002447300","authorIdStr":"4118993002447300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20250516 230.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20250516 230.0 PUT$</a> 短期的反弹为继续做空提供了一个好的价格。美股经济的“排毒期”才刚刚开始","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20250516 230.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20250516 230.0 PUT$</a> 短期的反弹为继续做空提供了一个好的价格。美股经济的“排毒期”才刚刚开始","text":"$TSLA 20250516 230.0 PUT$ 短期的反弹为继续做空提供了一个好的价格。美股经济的“排毒期”才刚刚开始","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d374b8ef5623b4c249d907c1642ad05","width":"981","height":"1637"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/412650947195136","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2407,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4189466494735352","authorId":"4189466494735352","name":"elizabethallen1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6aee6174c9293018a2f674b235347412","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4189466494735352","authorIdStr":"4189466494735352"},"content":"你必将亏死","text":"你必将亏死","html":"你必将亏死"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":408498041541000,"gmtCreate":1740748400362,"gmtModify":1740748892919,"author":{"id":"4118993002447300","authorId":"4118993002447300","name":"Leooooyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7648d1d18c43795e4508aa3a658e3fd4","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118993002447300","authorIdStr":"4118993002447300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20250404 270.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20250404 270.0 PUT$</a> 继续做空","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20250404 270.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20250404 270.0 PUT$</a> 继续做空","text":"$TSLA 20250404 270.0 PUT$ 继续做空","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cc331e553c68cc81b759eedbaf914fb","width":"981","height":"1637"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/408498041541000","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1072,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":408128491426392,"gmtCreate":1740661966910,"gmtModify":1740661968976,"author":{"id":"4118993002447300","authorId":"4118993002447300","name":"Leooooyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7648d1d18c43795e4508aa3a658e3fd4","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118993002447300","authorIdStr":"4118993002447300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"小米已经在吹泡泡阶段了……","listText":"小米已经在吹泡泡阶段了……","text":"小米已经在吹泡泡阶段了……","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/408128491426392","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1212,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":402513715319296,"gmtCreate":1739288497952,"gmtModify":1739288696905,"author":{"id":"4118993002447300","authorId":"4118993002447300","name":"Leooooyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7648d1d18c43795e4508aa3a658e3fd4","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118993002447300","authorIdStr":"4118993002447300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/YINN 20250417 40.0 CALL\">$YINN 20250417 40.0 CALL$</a> 我和中国资产的缘分一直很好","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/YINN 20250417 40.0 CALL\">$YINN 20250417 40.0 CALL$</a> 我和中国资产的缘分一直很好","text":"$YINN 20250417 40.0 CALL$ 我和中国资产的缘分一直很好","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d74b15285c6696366e1bbf7a11087bd7","width":"981","height":"1637"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/402513715319296","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1227,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"10000000000010523","authorId":"10000000000010523","name":"财富大元宝","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5749c9428d206c1502f68209d60128d6","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"10000000000010523","authorIdStr":"10000000000010523"},"content":"最近中概行情不错~","text":"最近中概行情不错~","html":"最近中概行情不错~"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":442857108328760,"gmtCreate":1749141746134,"gmtModify":1749141749888,"author":{"id":"4118993002447300","authorId":"4118993002447300","name":"Leooooyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7648d1d18c43795e4508aa3a658e3fd4","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118993002447300","authorIdStr":"4118993002447300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20250703 290.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20250703 290.0 PUT$</a> 终于等到开撕，做空的好时候来了。川普几乎和第一任期的所有重臣都闹翻了，有些还成了死敌。。老马危矣。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20250703 290.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20250703 290.0 PUT$</a> 终于等到开撕，做空的好时候来了。川普几乎和第一任期的所有重臣都闹翻了，有些还成了死敌。。老马危矣。","text":"$TSLA 20250703 290.0 PUT$ 终于等到开撕，做空的好时候来了。川普几乎和第一任期的所有重臣都闹翻了，有些还成了死敌。。老马危矣。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658daab655789e37837a31938aaccbe2","width":"981","height":"1637"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/442857108328760","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2729,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":458006334096128,"gmtCreate":1752855323813,"gmtModify":1752855643884,"author":{"id":"4118993002447300","authorId":"4118993002447300","name":"Leooooyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7648d1d18c43795e4508aa3a658e3fd4","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118993002447300","authorIdStr":"4118993002447300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我平仓了10手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BABA 20251017 120.0 CALL\">$BABA 20251017 120.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a>,获利了结一部分阿里期权回收保证金。看好阿里后期走势！","listText":"我平仓了10手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BABA 20251017 120.0 CALL\">$BABA 20251017 120.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a>,获利了结一部分阿里期权回收保证金。看好阿里后期走势！","text":"我平仓了10手$BABA 20251017 120.0 CALL$ ,获利了结一部分阿里期权回收保证金。看好阿里后期走势！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/458006334096128","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1038,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3479274714184258","authorId":"3479274714184258","name":"阿寻","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba8aa4cb116251d941ecb460f20f465b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3479274714184258","authorIdStr":"3479274714184258"},"content":"回收保证金不错，继续关注阿里走势","text":"回收保证金不错，继续关注阿里走势","html":"回收保证金不错，继续关注阿里走势"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":457264743346584,"gmtCreate":1752673585599,"gmtModify":1753280642266,"author":{"id":"4118993002447300","authorId":"4118993002447300","name":"Leooooyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7648d1d18c43795e4508aa3a658e3fd4","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118993002447300","authorIdStr":"4118993002447300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了2手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSM 20250808 250.0 CALL\">$TSM 20250808 250.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a>,正股备兑 卖call。这里有点贪心 ，看看这单结果如何吧 希望不会call飞","listText":"我开仓了2手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSM 20250808 250.0 CALL\">$TSM 20250808 250.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a>,正股备兑 卖call。这里有点贪心 ，看看这单结果如何吧 希望不会call飞","text":"我开仓了2手$TSM 20250808 250.0 CALL$ ,正股备兑 卖call。这里有点贪心 ，看看这单结果如何吧 希望不会call飞","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/457264743346584","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":523,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":445363767488592,"gmtCreate":1749752882800,"gmtModify":1754920832747,"author":{"id":"4118993002447300","authorId":"4118993002447300","name":"Leooooyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7648d1d18c43795e4508aa3a658e3fd4","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118993002447300","authorIdStr":"4118993002447300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了500.0股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$&nbsp;</a>,继续买入","listText":"我开仓了500.0股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$&nbsp;</a>,继续买入","text":"我开仓了500.0股$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$ ,继续买入","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/445363767488592","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":903,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":445248929710832,"gmtCreate":1749724484128,"gmtModify":1754979767522,"author":{"id":"4118993002447300","authorId":"4118993002447300","name":"Leooooyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7648d1d18c43795e4508aa3a658e3fd4","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118993002447300","authorIdStr":"4118993002447300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了800.0股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$&nbsp;</a>,小鹏大众深度合作 出海才是中国新能源车的未来！强烈看多小鹏","listText":"我开仓了800.0股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$&nbsp;</a>,小鹏大众深度合作 出海才是中国新能源车的未来！强烈看多小鹏","text":"我开仓了800.0股$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$ ,小鹏大众深度合作 出海才是中国新能源车的未来！强烈看多小鹏","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/445248929710832","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2061,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":413119900598784,"gmtCreate":1741891099972,"gmtModify":1741904557724,"author":{"id":"4118993002447300","authorId":"4118993002447300","name":"Leooooyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7648d1d18c43795e4508aa3a658e3fd4","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118993002447300","authorIdStr":"4118993002447300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20250516 230.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20250516 230.0 PUT$</a> 空单止盈，暂时不看空，等待趋势明朗后再决定交易方向","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20250516 230.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20250516 230.0 PUT$</a> 空单止盈，暂时不看空，等待趋势明朗后再决定交易方向","text":"$TSLA 20250516 230.0 PUT$ 空单止盈，暂时不看空，等待趋势明朗后再决定交易方向","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8775c1fe31cea5971380dceb5bb02765","width":"981","height":"1637"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/413119900598784","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":817,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":684393270,"gmtCreate":1660097703991,"gmtModify":1660098453891,"author":{"id":"4118993002447300","authorId":"4118993002447300","name":"Leooooyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7648d1d18c43795e4508aa3a658e3fd4","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118993002447300","authorIdStr":"4118993002447300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"如果油价真的长期处于高位，只会促进能源转型最终抑制石油需求","listText":"如果油价真的长期处于高位，只会促进能源转型最终抑制石油需求","text":"如果油价真的长期处于高位，只会促进能源转型最终抑制石油需求","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/684393270","repostId":"1113000180","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1113000180","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1660088372,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1113000180?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-08-10 07:39","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“油价将在年底飙升”！高盛继续唱多，这是详细的看涨逻辑","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113000180","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摘要：高盛的看涨观点得到了三个驱动因素的支持：（1）原油市场仍然供不应求——创纪录的零售燃油价格无法阻止6月和7月的市场短缺，而现在的价格要低得多，有助于支持需求；（2）即使假设期货现货价格存在历史性","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>摘要：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>的看涨观点得到了三个驱动因素的支持：（1）原油市场仍然供不应求——创纪录的零售燃油价格无法阻止6月和7月的市场短缺，而现在的价格要低得多，有助于支持需求；（2）即使假设期货现货价格存在历史性缺口，也需要更高的布伦特期货价格；（3）原油仍然是最便宜的能源，可以替代天然气。</blockquote><p>经济衰退阴霾令市场需求预期承压，上周WTI油价创下4月份以来最大单周跌幅，大摩指出，高油价开始破坏需求超级周期见顶，不过“原油旗手”高盛依旧看多，称油价有强劲上行风险，下半年布伦特原油或升至130美元/桶。</p><p>高盛分析师、能源研究主管和高级大宗商品策略师Damien Courvalin认为，一旦市场对经济衰退、俄罗斯生产复苏和美国SPR释放的担忧缓解，油价上涨的可能性仍然很大。</p><blockquote>即使假设所有这些负面冲击发挥作用，油价上涨的理由仍然很充分，原油市场供应短缺的程度仍然超过我们的预期。</blockquote><p>高盛将第三季度和第四季度的布伦特原油价格的预测分别下调至每桶110美元和125美元，此前为每桶140美元和130美元。另外，高盛对2023年的预期维持每桶125美元不变。</p><p>Courvalin和他的团队预计，<b>以目前的价格，原油市场将继续处于不可持续的供给短缺状态</b>。因此，平衡油市供需仍然要靠经济持续放缓背景下的石油需求破坏，在这方面高盛比市场共识更谨慎。高盛认为，这需要布油当量燃料零售价格大幅反弹到150美元/桶，而这意味着美国汽油和柴油零售价格在2022年第四季度达到4.35美元/加仑和5.45美元/加仑。</p><p>具体来看高盛是如何推演出“油价将在年底飙升”的。</p><p>何为“正确”的油价？高盛的价格预测框架</p><p>高盛承认，其看涨观点需要先解决布伦特原油与布油当量的全球原油现货之间的巨大价差。今年6-7月布伦特原油平均价格为110美元/桶，而后者为160美元/桶。</p><p>Courvalin指出，从好的方面来看上述价差在油价崩溃之前接近其预测，从坏的方面来看价差比预期大，更糟糕的是，高盛对原油现货的预期并没有导致更多的需求破坏供应短缺。</p><p>正如高盛所解释的，对于油价而言有两大价格因素对原油市场至关重要：</p><ul><li>消费者支付的原油现货价格（燃料零售价格），因为其<b>推动了需求弹性</b>；</li><li>生产商购买的原油价格，因为其<b>驱动着供应弹性</b>。</li></ul><p>2021年以前，两者之间一直保持较稳定的关系，但后来随着从原油转化为燃料的每一个步骤都严重扭曲了价格，两者之间的价差不断被拉大。俄罗斯能源与欧洲天然气危机也可能是这一价差扩大的原因。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ecd8287fd9b3a44fcd45e935406b6ac\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"695\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>理解了两者价格的脱节，就可以理解高盛对布油期货预测的框架和结论，<b>鉴于创纪录的低库存和缺乏供应弹性，原油现货价格是原油市场的关键平衡机制。这使得该行在其基本模型中求解零售价格，即实现需求弹性的水平，并随后得出其布伦特期货价格预测</b>。因此，高盛将原油现货价格表述为面对&#34;消费者&#34;的布伦特价格，即其估计消费者和全球经济实际支付的布伦特油价。</p><p>回顾过去，高盛对6月和7月的布伦特月度平均价格的预测是125美元和140美元/桶，而其预测布油消费价格为150-160美元/桶。但实际上，前两月的布油期货价格为117美元和105美元/桶，低于高盛的预测；而布油消费价格为150-170美元，略高于其预测。</p><p>总结来说，<b>这种创纪录的高溢价、布伦特原油价格的新一轮暴跌以及当前处于极端低位的原油现货溢价，都可以归咎于不断下降的大宗商品期货市场流动性</b>。此外，原油倒挂的极端水平也用同样的理由解释。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a5114dc5089bb3f14f609163e202f82\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>两大因素破坏原油基本面，现货期货价格传导机制扭曲</p><p>新冠疫情和对俄罗斯持续的能源制裁成为对原油基本面两个史无前例的破坏因素，两者都推动了价格波动的急剧上升，而这一趋势很快就被极端的库存水平所加剧。</p><p>更重要的是，这种波动迫使投资者远离商品市场，从而更进一步支持了价格的波动。<b>这种自我强化机制的一个关键<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/838275\">驱动力</a>是使用风险价值（VaR），即投资组合在给定置信区间的定义时期内的潜在价值损失。</b></p><p>当价格和波动性上升时，与一定数量的商品相关的风险值也会上升，迫使商品市场风险经理减少他们的交易规模，即使实物市场的规模没有变化，也会留下缩减的头寸。类似的说法也适用于银行和交易商，大大降低了生产商的对冲能力，进一步限制了他们对未来生产的投资能力，因为再投资率需要降低，以配合油价的更高波动性。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a0a2aed9bbadcb96bc360d3a9f5303c\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"425\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>高盛认为，这种远大于预期的巨大价差主要与俄罗斯能源和欧盟天然气危机有关，其影响到的三大因素包括清洁货运、欧盟天然气价格和美元都对原油市场产生冲击。而7月份较弱的炼油利润和美国政府继续通过税收减免和补贴来压制零售价格的努力而部分抵消。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30a8e6866ab0eb90d1ee09c58b62a674\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>由于高盛之前认为商品是真实的资产，能为当前的供需不平衡定价，因此在其逻辑中，投资者对商品期货的交易有助于将预期的供需变化转化为直接的价格信号。从本质上讲，投资者的参与有助于平滑基本冲击，激励供应和需求弹性，以防止短缺或中断的结果。</p><p>当然，这并不意味着现货价格形成机制被打破了，因为明显目前的现货价格仍然准确地反映了近几个月的实物市场非常紧张。但是因为俄乌冲突和欧洲天然气危机的影响下，期货商品价格的传导机制被扭曲了。</p><p>看涨原油的四大驱动因素</p><p>高盛继续解释其看涨的驱动因素：</p><ul><li>其最新的基本供需预期。</li><li>通过需求弹性来平衡原油市场所需的现货价格水平（面对创纪录的低库存和无弹性的供应，这是唯一剩下的缓冲区）。</li><li>现货价格和期货价格之间的预期差距。</li><li>投资者从商品期货市场流出的情况变化。</li></ul><p>高盛认为，从基本面来看，原油供应继续令人失望，而需求则受到反复的疫情影响和欧洲天然气危机的影响依旧高涨，按照Courvalin所说，原油需求比预期更加坚挺。高盛认为，因为商品市场需要平衡，库存不可能归零。</p><p>换句话说，在经济持续放缓的基础上破坏需求，需要通过高额的零售燃料价格来结束市场赤字。即使谨慎地假设经济增长比经济学家的更弱，高盛预测布伦特消费价格在22年第四季度和2023年需要平均达到150美元/桶。</p><p>然而，预测布伦特原油期货缺乏流动性则使得高盛不得不假设布油现货和期货价格之间的价差从历史上的宽泛水平小幅缩小到5美元/桶，直到2023年。因此其预测22年第四季度和2023年的布伦特金融价格为125美元/桶，而之前为130美元和125美元，都远远高于目前低于三位数的布伦特价格。</p><p>缺乏投资者参与的的流动性短缺使得高盛对其22年第三季度的预测进行了最大的下调，现在是110美元/桶，而之前是140美元/桶。这一修订说明，现货价格的下调反映了俄罗斯供应量增加和SPR释放速度快于预期；以及布油期货价格对现货价格折价反映了美元走强和粘性高的实物溢价。</p><p>基于上述情况，高盛还首次对美国汽油和柴油零售价格的预测，该行预计，<b>到22年第四季度，美国汽油和柴油价格将回升至4.35美元和5.50美元/加仑，2023年的平均水平为4.40美元和5.25美元/加仑。</b>按照高盛的预测，美国零售燃油价格将在年底前反弹，然后从23年第二季度开始下降，因为炼油和营销利润开始正常化。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93d1eda9a773de0b449c9a07ef642d6c\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>综上所述，高盛的看涨观点得到了三个驱动因素的支持：<b>（1）原油市场仍然供不应求——创纪录的零售燃油价格无法阻止6月和7月的市场短缺，而现在的价格要低得多，有助于支持需求；（2）即使假设期货现货价格存在历史性缺口，也需要更高的布伦特期货价格；（3）原油仍然是最便宜的能源，可以替代天然气。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccacb921dcf7cb249c4b091a8da9d65b\" tg-width=\"929\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“油价将在年底飙升”！高盛继续唱多，这是详细的看涨逻辑</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“油价将在年底飙升”！高盛继续唱多，这是详细的看涨逻辑\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-10 07:39 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3667230><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摘要：高盛的看涨观点得到了三个驱动因素的支持：（1）原油市场仍然供不应求——创纪录的零售燃油价格无法阻止6月和7月的市场短缺，而现在的价格要低得多，有助于支持需求；（2）即使假设期货现货价格存在历史性缺口，也需要更高的布伦特期货价格；（3）原油仍然是最便宜的能源，可以替代天然气。经济衰退阴霾令市场需求预期承压，上周WTI油价创下4月份以来最大单周跌幅，大摩指出，高油价开始破坏需求超级周期见顶，不过...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3667230\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3faadc006e67e6ac130a7b171f263b4d","relate_stocks":{"BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","GS":"高盛","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3667230","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1113000180","content_text":"摘要：高盛的看涨观点得到了三个驱动因素的支持：（1）原油市场仍然供不应求——创纪录的零售燃油价格无法阻止6月和7月的市场短缺，而现在的价格要低得多，有助于支持需求；（2）即使假设期货现货价格存在历史性缺口，也需要更高的布伦特期货价格；（3）原油仍然是最便宜的能源，可以替代天然气。经济衰退阴霾令市场需求预期承压，上周WTI油价创下4月份以来最大单周跌幅，大摩指出，高油价开始破坏需求超级周期见顶，不过“原油旗手”高盛依旧看多，称油价有强劲上行风险，下半年布伦特原油或升至130美元/桶。高盛分析师、能源研究主管和高级大宗商品策略师Damien Courvalin认为，一旦市场对经济衰退、俄罗斯生产复苏和美国SPR释放的担忧缓解，油价上涨的可能性仍然很大。即使假设所有这些负面冲击发挥作用，油价上涨的理由仍然很充分，原油市场供应短缺的程度仍然超过我们的预期。高盛将第三季度和第四季度的布伦特原油价格的预测分别下调至每桶110美元和125美元，此前为每桶140美元和130美元。另外，高盛对2023年的预期维持每桶125美元不变。Courvalin和他的团队预计，以目前的价格，原油市场将继续处于不可持续的供给短缺状态。因此，平衡油市供需仍然要靠经济持续放缓背景下的石油需求破坏，在这方面高盛比市场共识更谨慎。高盛认为，这需要布油当量燃料零售价格大幅反弹到150美元/桶，而这意味着美国汽油和柴油零售价格在2022年第四季度达到4.35美元/加仑和5.45美元/加仑。具体来看高盛是如何推演出“油价将在年底飙升”的。何为“正确”的油价？高盛的价格预测框架高盛承认，其看涨观点需要先解决布伦特原油与布油当量的全球原油现货之间的巨大价差。今年6-7月布伦特原油平均价格为110美元/桶，而后者为160美元/桶。Courvalin指出，从好的方面来看上述价差在油价崩溃之前接近其预测，从坏的方面来看价差比预期大，更糟糕的是，高盛对原油现货的预期并没有导致更多的需求破坏供应短缺。正如高盛所解释的，对于油价而言有两大价格因素对原油市场至关重要：消费者支付的原油现货价格（燃料零售价格），因为其推动了需求弹性；生产商购买的原油价格，因为其驱动着供应弹性。2021年以前，两者之间一直保持较稳定的关系，但后来随着从原油转化为燃料的每一个步骤都严重扭曲了价格，两者之间的价差不断被拉大。俄罗斯能源与欧洲天然气危机也可能是这一价差扩大的原因。理解了两者价格的脱节，就可以理解高盛对布油期货预测的框架和结论，鉴于创纪录的低库存和缺乏供应弹性，原油现货价格是原油市场的关键平衡机制。这使得该行在其基本模型中求解零售价格，即实现需求弹性的水平，并随后得出其布伦特期货价格预测。因此，高盛将原油现货价格表述为面对\"消费者\"的布伦特价格，即其估计消费者和全球经济实际支付的布伦特油价。回顾过去，高盛对6月和7月的布伦特月度平均价格的预测是125美元和140美元/桶，而其预测布油消费价格为150-160美元/桶。但实际上，前两月的布油期货价格为117美元和105美元/桶，低于高盛的预测；而布油消费价格为150-170美元，略高于其预测。总结来说，这种创纪录的高溢价、布伦特原油价格的新一轮暴跌以及当前处于极端低位的原油现货溢价，都可以归咎于不断下降的大宗商品期货市场流动性。此外，原油倒挂的极端水平也用同样的理由解释。两大因素破坏原油基本面，现货期货价格传导机制扭曲新冠疫情和对俄罗斯持续的能源制裁成为对原油基本面两个史无前例的破坏因素，两者都推动了价格波动的急剧上升，而这一趋势很快就被极端的库存水平所加剧。更重要的是，这种波动迫使投资者远离商品市场，从而更进一步支持了价格的波动。这种自我强化机制的一个关键驱动力是使用风险价值（VaR），即投资组合在给定置信区间的定义时期内的潜在价值损失。当价格和波动性上升时，与一定数量的商品相关的风险值也会上升，迫使商品市场风险经理减少他们的交易规模，即使实物市场的规模没有变化，也会留下缩减的头寸。类似的说法也适用于银行和交易商，大大降低了生产商的对冲能力，进一步限制了他们对未来生产的投资能力，因为再投资率需要降低，以配合油价的更高波动性。高盛认为，这种远大于预期的巨大价差主要与俄罗斯能源和欧盟天然气危机有关，其影响到的三大因素包括清洁货运、欧盟天然气价格和美元都对原油市场产生冲击。而7月份较弱的炼油利润和美国政府继续通过税收减免和补贴来压制零售价格的努力而部分抵消。由于高盛之前认为商品是真实的资产，能为当前的供需不平衡定价，因此在其逻辑中，投资者对商品期货的交易有助于将预期的供需变化转化为直接的价格信号。从本质上讲，投资者的参与有助于平滑基本冲击，激励供应和需求弹性，以防止短缺或中断的结果。当然，这并不意味着现货价格形成机制被打破了，因为明显目前的现货价格仍然准确地反映了近几个月的实物市场非常紧张。但是因为俄乌冲突和欧洲天然气危机的影响下，期货商品价格的传导机制被扭曲了。看涨原油的四大驱动因素高盛继续解释其看涨的驱动因素：其最新的基本供需预期。通过需求弹性来平衡原油市场所需的现货价格水平（面对创纪录的低库存和无弹性的供应，这是唯一剩下的缓冲区）。现货价格和期货价格之间的预期差距。投资者从商品期货市场流出的情况变化。高盛认为，从基本面来看，原油供应继续令人失望，而需求则受到反复的疫情影响和欧洲天然气危机的影响依旧高涨，按照Courvalin所说，原油需求比预期更加坚挺。高盛认为，因为商品市场需要平衡，库存不可能归零。换句话说，在经济持续放缓的基础上破坏需求，需要通过高额的零售燃料价格来结束市场赤字。即使谨慎地假设经济增长比经济学家的更弱，高盛预测布伦特消费价格在22年第四季度和2023年需要平均达到150美元/桶。然而，预测布伦特原油期货缺乏流动性则使得高盛不得不假设布油现货和期货价格之间的价差从历史上的宽泛水平小幅缩小到5美元/桶，直到2023年。因此其预测22年第四季度和2023年的布伦特金融价格为125美元/桶，而之前为130美元和125美元，都远远高于目前低于三位数的布伦特价格。缺乏投资者参与的的流动性短缺使得高盛对其22年第三季度的预测进行了最大的下调，现在是110美元/桶，而之前是140美元/桶。这一修订说明，现货价格的下调反映了俄罗斯供应量增加和SPR释放速度快于预期；以及布油期货价格对现货价格折价反映了美元走强和粘性高的实物溢价。基于上述情况，高盛还首次对美国汽油和柴油零售价格的预测，该行预计，到22年第四季度，美国汽油和柴油价格将回升至4.35美元和5.50美元/加仑，2023年的平均水平为4.40美元和5.25美元/加仑。按照高盛的预测，美国零售燃油价格将在年底前反弹，然后从23年第二季度开始下降，因为炼油和营销利润开始正常化。综上所述，高盛的看涨观点得到了三个驱动因素的支持：（1）原油市场仍然供不应求——创纪录的零售燃油价格无法阻止6月和7月的市场短缺，而现在的价格要低得多，有助于支持需求；（2）即使假设期货现货价格存在历史性缺口，也需要更高的布伦特期货价格；（3）原油仍然是最便宜的能源，可以替代天然气。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2872,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":462726098890912,"gmtCreate":1753976294520,"gmtModify":1754034958115,"author":{"id":"4118993002447300","authorId":"4118993002447300","name":"Leooooyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7648d1d18c43795e4508aa3a658e3fd4","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118993002447300","authorIdStr":"4118993002447300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/07226\">$南方两倍做多恒科(07226)$&nbsp;</a>,左侧买入","listText":"我开仓了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/07226\">$南方两倍做多恒科(07226)$&nbsp;</a>,左侧买入","text":"我开仓了$南方两倍做多恒科(07226)$ ,左侧买入","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/462726098890912","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":227,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":459746422690056,"gmtCreate":1753280059486,"gmtModify":1753280326925,"author":{"id":"4118993002447300","authorId":"4118993002447300","name":"Leooooyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7648d1d18c43795e4508aa3a658e3fd4","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118993002447300","authorIdStr":"4118993002447300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我平仓了2手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSM 20250808 250.0 CALL\">$TSM 20250808 250.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a>,平仓了，看好台积电后续涨势！这个卖call赚钱了就很好","listText":"我平仓了2手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSM 20250808 250.0 CALL\">$TSM 20250808 250.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a>,平仓了，看好台积电后续涨势！这个卖call赚钱了就很好","text":"我平仓了2手$TSM 20250808 250.0 CALL$ ,平仓了，看好台积电后续涨势！这个卖call赚钱了就很好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/459746422690056","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":789,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":459332425228528,"gmtCreate":1753192093126,"gmtModify":1754331747917,"author":{"id":"4118993002447300","authorId":"4118993002447300","name":"Leooooyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7648d1d18c43795e4508aa3a658e3fd4","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118993002447300","authorIdStr":"4118993002447300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了20手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/KWEB 20251219 39.0 CALL\">$KWEB 20251219 39.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a>,美股早盘下跌把中概价格打下来了，顺势加仓！目前的位置非常看好3个月内向上10%-20%的空间","listText":"我开仓了20手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/KWEB 20251219 39.0 CALL\">$KWEB 20251219 39.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a>,美股早盘下跌把中概价格打下来了，顺势加仓！目前的位置非常看好3个月内向上10%-20%的空间","text":"我开仓了20手$KWEB 20251219 39.0 CALL$ ,美股早盘下跌把中概价格打下来了，顺势加仓！目前的位置非常看好3个月内向上10%-20%的空间","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/459332425228528","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":541,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":459330947698928,"gmtCreate":1753191732401,"gmtModify":1756310050058,"author":{"id":"4118993002447300","authorId":"4118993002447300","name":"Leooooyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7648d1d18c43795e4508aa3a658e3fd4","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118993002447300","authorIdStr":"4118993002447300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了8手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BABA 20251219 135.0 CALL\">$BABA 20251219 135.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a>,去查看订单详情。","listText":"我开仓了8手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BABA 20251219 135.0 CALL\">$BABA 20251219 135.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a>,去查看订单详情。","text":"我开仓了8手$BABA 20251219 135.0 CALL$ ,去查看订单详情。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/459330947698928","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":205,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":458980001747184,"gmtCreate":1753106052237,"gmtModify":1754337144851,"author":{"id":"4118993002447300","authorId":"4118993002447300","name":"Leooooyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7648d1d18c43795e4508aa3a658e3fd4","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118993002447300","authorIdStr":"4118993002447300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了40手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/KWEB 20251219 39.0 CALL\">$KWEB 20251219 39.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a>,去查看订单详情。","listText":"我开仓了40手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/KWEB 20251219 39.0 CALL\">$KWEB 20251219 39.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a>,去查看订单详情。","text":"我开仓了40手$KWEB 20251219 39.0 CALL$ ,去查看订单详情。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/458980001747184","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":387,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":458866455027952,"gmtCreate":1753078330871,"gmtModify":1756385664649,"author":{"id":"4118993002447300","authorId":"4118993002447300","name":"Leooooyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7648d1d18c43795e4508aa3a658e3fd4","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118993002447300","authorIdStr":"4118993002447300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了10手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TCH.HK 20250828 500.00 PUT\">$TCH.HK 20250828 500.00 PUT$&nbsp;</a>,腾讯落后指数了，卖put赚点保险金","listText":"我开仓了10手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TCH.HK 20250828 500.00 PUT\">$TCH.HK 20250828 500.00 PUT$&nbsp;</a>,腾讯落后指数了，卖put赚点保险金","text":"我开仓了10手$TCH.HK 20250828 500.00 PUT$ ,腾讯落后指数了，卖put赚点保险金","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/458866455027952","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":645,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}