Leooooyy的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Leooooyy

Leooooyy

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IP属地：中国香港

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09-30

友商请的写手吗

信用销售规模暴增小鹏汽车巨额客户按揭尾款存减值风险

09-15

我平仓了177手$KWEB 20251121 36.0 CALL$ ,结束在老虎的最后一笔交易。3年了感恩遇见

09-10

缺德公司

蔚来：拟公开发行不超过1.82亿股本公司A类普通股

08-26

$纳斯达克中国金龙指数(HXC)$ 小荷才露尖尖角

07-31

我开仓了$南方两倍做多恒科(07226)$ ,左侧买入

07-23

我平仓了2手$TSM 20250808 250.0 CALL$ ,平仓了，看好台积电后续涨势！这个卖call赚钱了就很好

07-22

我开仓了20手$KWEB 20251219 39.0 CALL$ ,美股早盘下跌把中概价格打下来了，顺势加仓！目前的位置非常看好3个月内向上10%-20%的空间

07-21

我开仓了10手$TCH.HK 20250828 500.00 PUT$ ,腾讯落后指数了，卖put赚点保险金

07-19

我平仓了10手$BABA 20251017 120.0 CALL$ ,获利了结一部分阿里期权回收保证金。看好阿里后期走势！

07-16

我开仓了2手$TSM 20250808 250.0 CALL$ ,正股备兑卖call。这里有点贪心，看看这单结果如何吧希望不会call飞

06-26

我开仓了10手$BABA 20251017 120.0 CALL$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单！

06-23

我开仓了5000.0股$南方两倍做多恒科(07226)$ ,看多

06-14

我开仓了60手$KWEB 20251121 36.0 CALL$ ,浅浅买入

06-13

我开仓了500.0股$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$ ,继续买入

06-12

我开仓了100.0股$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$ ,看好小鹏和大众的合作拓宽出海渠道

06-12

我开仓了800.0股$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$ ,小鹏大众深度合作出海才是中国新能源车的未来！强烈看多小鹏

06-06

我平仓了4手$TSLA 20250703 290.0 PUT$ ,收菜了。虽然还是看空的，但是他们第二天突然又哥俩好的可能性也存在落袋为安

06-06

$TSLA 20250703 290.0 PUT$ 终于等到开撕，做空的好时候来了。川普几乎和第一任期的所有重臣都闹翻了，有些还成了死敌。。老马危矣。

03-14

$TSLA 20250516 230.0 PUT$ 空单止盈，暂时不看空，等待趋势明朗后再决定交易方向

03-14

$QQQ 20250516 470.0 PUT$ 美股空单止盈，下跌势能略有衰减，这里可以休息下等待4月2号后的机会

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10:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"信用销售规模暴增 小鹏汽车巨额客户按揭尾款存减值风险","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2571696399","media":"中国能源网","summary":"小鹏汽车预计第三季度总收入在196亿元至210亿元之间，同比增长约94%至107.9%。小鹏汽车在财报中将应收账款与应收分期付款分开进行列报。截至今年6月底，小鹏汽车应收账款和票据净额合计17.64亿元，较2025年年初减少27.97%。这些活动在刺激销售的同时，也使得小鹏汽车对客户的应收分期付款规模持续增长。小鹏汽车称，供应商一般授予公司0至60日的信贷期。","content":"<p>自从两年前原<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601633\">长城汽车</a>（601633.SH，02333.HK）副董事长、总裁王凤英出任<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>（09868.HK）联席总裁后，其主导的渠道变革、成本管控取得了一定效果——<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09868\">小鹏汽车</a>9月22日披露的中期报告显示，公司汽车产品销量、营业收入同比均大幅增长，当期亏损大幅收窄，但累计亏损扩大至427.44亿元。</p><p>《经济参考报》记者注意到，小鹏汽车从2023年启动“木星计划”至今年上半年，直营店占比已由早期的约70%下降至目前的约30%。借助“渠道变革+信用销售”，公司汽车销量实现“逆袭”，应收款项结构大变，应收分期付款余额增长至72.55亿元。</p><p>“投资者在分析小鹏汽车应收账款的同时，要高度注意公司不断增加的应收分期付款规模及坏账计提情况”，9月23日，知名财税审专家刘志耕在接受《经济参考报》记者采访时表示，由于预期信用损失风险的计算模型存在一定的主观空间，可能成为公司利润调节工具。受宏观经济波动及行业周期等因素影响，这些规模庞大的分期付款违约率可能上升，公司需建立压力测试模型，评估不同经济场景下的风险敞口。</p><p><strong>应收分期付款规模跳跃式增长</strong></p><p>中报显示，今年上半年，小鹏汽车实现总收入340.9亿元，同比增长132.5%，归属于公司普通股股东的净利润为-11.4亿元，较去年同期的-26.53亿元大幅收窄。尽管如此，小鹏汽车的累计亏损扩大至427.44亿元。</p><p>上半年公司业绩改善源于汽车交付量增加。今年上半年，小鹏汽车交付量约为19.72万辆，同比增加279%。7月份总交付量约为3.67万辆，前7月累计交付量约为23.39万辆。小鹏汽车预计第三季度总收入在196亿元至210亿元之间，同比增长约94%至107.9%。</p><p>收入大增，赊销功不可没。小鹏汽车在财报中将应收账款与应收分期付款分开进行列报。其中，应收账款及票据指在正常销售汽车过程中，应收大批量购车者的款项，以及代客户收取的政府补贴款项。应收分期付款主要包括公司应收客户的汽车或电池分期付款的应收款项总额。</p><p>截至今年6月底，小鹏汽车应收账款和票据净额合计17.64亿元，较2025年年初减少27.97%。不过，公司期末应收分期付款的流动部分净额为26.71亿元，较2025年年初增加4.40%，应收分期付款的非流动部分净额为45.84亿元，较2024年年末增加1.78%，两项合计72.55亿元，较2024年年末增加2.26%。</p><p>小鹏汽车应收款结构之所以出现“一增一减”的变化，与公司销售模式变化有关。</p><p>2023年1月，王凤英出任小鹏汽车总裁后主抓两件事：销售渠道整合和成本管控。截至2022年底，小鹏汽车在中国大陆共有420家门店，其中：直营门店294家（占比约70%）、经销商门店126家（占比约30%），公司2022年汽车总销量为12.08万辆。2023年、2024年汽车总销量分别为14.16万辆、19万辆，今年上半年增加到19.72万辆，超过去年全年交付量。截至今年6月底，小鹏汽车在中国内地共有677家门店，其中经销商门店约474家，直营门店约203家。</p><p>记者注意到，小鹏汽车近年来推出了不少类似“零首付购车”的杠杆购车活动。这些活动在刺激销售的同时，也使得小鹏汽车对客户的应收分期付款规模持续增长。</p><p>财报显示，2022年、2023年、2024年及2025年上半年，小鹏汽车应收分期付款期末账面值分别为35.71亿元、50.31亿元、70.95亿元及73.46亿元，呈现出跳跃式增长态势，对应当期坏账计提金额分别为0.88亿元、1.22亿元、0.88亿元及0.90亿元，坏账计提比例分别为2.46%、2.42%、1.24%及1.23%，坏账计提比例呈现不断下滑趋势。无论是坏账计提金额还是计提比例均与应收分期支付款规模走势相悖。</p><p>小鹏汽车近年来应收分期付款及坏账计提情况 （单位/亿元）</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b416e2979d1cd69deb400271039886ba\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"212\"></p><p>资料来源：公司公告 制表：郭新志</p><p>小鹏汽车没有解释应收分期付款暴增的具体原因。公司称，公司应收账款主要包括代表客户向政府领取的与政府补贴有关的车辆销售金额及向大批量客户在常规业务中的车辆销售金额。向个人客户的销售通常通过客户的垫款作出。向大批量买方的销售按介乎30至60日的信用期作出。</p><p><strong>占用供应链资金状况有待改善</strong></p><p>近年来，车企利用自身地位占用供应商资金现象突出，引发社会广泛关注。《保障中小企业款项支付条例》修订版自今年6月1日起正式实施，众多车企纷纷承诺“60天账期”。9月15日，中国汽车工业协会就“整车企业供应商账款支付规范”发出倡议。倡导整车企业支付账期自供应商企业交货并通过整车企业验收合格之日起计算，最长不超过60个自然日（如支付当日遇法定节假日顺延）。</p><p>应付贸易款项是观察上市车企占用供应商贸易款项的重要评估指标。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300033\">同花顺</a>iFinD数据显示，今年上半年，纳入统计范围的16家上市乘用车企业（A股+H股）的应付账款和应付票据（以下简称“应付贸易款项”）合计0.95万亿元，较2024年年末减少6.21%，其中，13家车企的应付贸易款项呈现下降趋势，表明车企占用供应商资金的情况整体有所缓解。</p><p>财报显示，截至今年6月30日，小鹏汽车应付贸易款项为306.87亿元，较2024年底增加32.96%，增速位居16家车企之首，其增长与公司收入快速增长有关。</p><p>具体来看，2025年上半年，公司期末应付账款达到169.59亿元，和2024年年末的151.82亿元相比，增加约11.71%。</p><p>从应付账款的账龄结构来看，3至6个月账龄比例大幅增加，由2024年年末的3.28亿元增长至2025年上半年的10.27亿元，增长约213.63%。0至3个月账龄比例增长约7.24%，由2024年年末的143.78亿元增加至今年上半年的154.19亿元。</p><p>应付票据总量亦大幅增加。2025年上半年，小鹏汽车应付银行承兑票据为137.28亿元，较2024年年末的78.99亿元增长约78.8%。</p><p>结构方面，从应付票据按照账龄分析，0至3个月账龄为87.85亿元，较2024年年末的54.48亿元增长约61.26%；3至6个月账龄为49.43亿元，较2024年年末的24.51亿元增长约101.67%。</p><p>小鹏汽车称，供应商一般授予公司0至60日的信贷期。但从上述账龄数据来看，公司应付账款账龄以0至3个月居多，而3至6个月的应付贸易款项增幅最大。</p><p>针对小鹏汽车应收分期付款坏账拨备、供应链资金占用等情况，记者9月23日致函小鹏汽车，至记者发稿，公司尚未回复。</p><p>展望2025年第三季度，小鹏汽车汽车交付量预计为11.3万辆至11.8万辆，按年增加约142.8%至153.6%。总收入预计为196亿元至210亿元，按年增加约94.0%至107.9%。（记者 郭新志 实习记者 李子莘）</p>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n信用销售规模暴增 小鹏汽车巨额客户按揭尾款存减值风险\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-09-30 10:45 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250930104843954d6249&s=b><strong>中国能源网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>自从两年前原长城汽车（601633.SH，02333.HK）副董事长、总裁王凤英出任小鹏汽车（09868.HK）联席总裁后，其主导的渠道变革、成本管控取得了一定效果——小鹏汽车9月22日披露的中期报告显示，公司汽车产品销量、营业收入同比均大幅增长，当期亏损大幅收窄，但累计亏损扩大至427.44亿元。《经济参考报》记者注意到，小鹏汽车从2023年启动“木星计划”至今年上半年，直营店占比已由早期的约...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250930104843954d6249&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","BK4555":"新能源车","EVS.SI":"MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility ETF-NikkoAM","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250930104843954d6249&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2571696399","content_text":"自从两年前原长城汽车（601633.SH，02333.HK）副董事长、总裁王凤英出任小鹏汽车（09868.HK）联席总裁后，其主导的渠道变革、成本管控取得了一定效果——小鹏汽车9月22日披露的中期报告显示，公司汽车产品销量、营业收入同比均大幅增长，当期亏损大幅收窄，但累计亏损扩大至427.44亿元。《经济参考报》记者注意到，小鹏汽车从2023年启动“木星计划”至今年上半年，直营店占比已由早期的约70%下降至目前的约30%。借助“渠道变革+信用销售”，公司汽车销量实现“逆袭”，应收款项结构大变，应收分期付款余额增长至72.55亿元。“投资者在分析小鹏汽车应收账款的同时，要高度注意公司不断增加的应收分期付款规模及坏账计提情况”，9月23日，知名财税审专家刘志耕在接受《经济参考报》记者采访时表示，由于预期信用损失风险的计算模型存在一定的主观空间，可能成为公司利润调节工具。受宏观经济波动及行业周期等因素影响，这些规模庞大的分期付款违约率可能上升，公司需建立压力测试模型，评估不同经济场景下的风险敞口。应收分期付款规模跳跃式增长中报显示，今年上半年，小鹏汽车实现总收入340.9亿元，同比增长132.5%，归属于公司普通股股东的净利润为-11.4亿元，较去年同期的-26.53亿元大幅收窄。尽管如此，小鹏汽车的累计亏损扩大至427.44亿元。上半年公司业绩改善源于汽车交付量增加。今年上半年，小鹏汽车交付量约为19.72万辆，同比增加279%。7月份总交付量约为3.67万辆，前7月累计交付量约为23.39万辆。小鹏汽车预计第三季度总收入在196亿元至210亿元之间，同比增长约94%至107.9%。收入大增，赊销功不可没。小鹏汽车在财报中将应收账款与应收分期付款分开进行列报。其中，应收账款及票据指在正常销售汽车过程中，应收大批量购车者的款项，以及代客户收取的政府补贴款项。应收分期付款主要包括公司应收客户的汽车或电池分期付款的应收款项总额。截至今年6月底，小鹏汽车应收账款和票据净额合计17.64亿元，较2025年年初减少27.97%。不过，公司期末应收分期付款的流动部分净额为26.71亿元，较2025年年初增加4.40%，应收分期付款的非流动部分净额为45.84亿元，较2024年年末增加1.78%，两项合计72.55亿元，较2024年年末增加2.26%。小鹏汽车应收款结构之所以出现“一增一减”的变化，与公司销售模式变化有关。2023年1月，王凤英出任小鹏汽车总裁后主抓两件事：销售渠道整合和成本管控。截至2022年底，小鹏汽车在中国大陆共有420家门店，其中：直营门店294家（占比约70%）、经销商门店126家（占比约30%），公司2022年汽车总销量为12.08万辆。2023年、2024年汽车总销量分别为14.16万辆、19万辆，今年上半年增加到19.72万辆，超过去年全年交付量。截至今年6月底，小鹏汽车在中国内地共有677家门店，其中经销商门店约474家，直营门店约203家。记者注意到，小鹏汽车近年来推出了不少类似“零首付购车”的杠杆购车活动。这些活动在刺激销售的同时，也使得小鹏汽车对客户的应收分期付款规模持续增长。财报显示，2022年、2023年、2024年及2025年上半年，小鹏汽车应收分期付款期末账面值分别为35.71亿元、50.31亿元、70.95亿元及73.46亿元，呈现出跳跃式增长态势，对应当期坏账计提金额分别为0.88亿元、1.22亿元、0.88亿元及0.90亿元，坏账计提比例分别为2.46%、2.42%、1.24%及1.23%，坏账计提比例呈现不断下滑趋势。无论是坏账计提金额还是计提比例均与应收分期支付款规模走势相悖。小鹏汽车近年来应收分期付款及坏账计提情况 （单位/亿元）资料来源：公司公告 制表：郭新志小鹏汽车没有解释应收分期付款暴增的具体原因。公司称，公司应收账款主要包括代表客户向政府领取的与政府补贴有关的车辆销售金额及向大批量客户在常规业务中的车辆销售金额。向个人客户的销售通常通过客户的垫款作出。向大批量买方的销售按介乎30至60日的信用期作出。占用供应链资金状况有待改善近年来，车企利用自身地位占用供应商资金现象突出，引发社会广泛关注。《保障中小企业款项支付条例》修订版自今年6月1日起正式实施，众多车企纷纷承诺“60天账期”。9月15日，中国汽车工业协会就“整车企业供应商账款支付规范”发出倡议。倡导整车企业支付账期自供应商企业交货并通过整车企业验收合格之日起计算，最长不超过60个自然日（如支付当日遇法定节假日顺延）。应付贸易款项是观察上市车企占用供应商贸易款项的重要评估指标。同花顺iFinD数据显示，今年上半年，纳入统计范围的16家上市乘用车企业（A股+H股）的应付账款和应付票据（以下简称“应付贸易款项”）合计0.95万亿元，较2024年年末减少6.21%，其中，13家车企的应付贸易款项呈现下降趋势，表明车企占用供应商资金的情况整体有所缓解。财报显示，截至今年6月30日，小鹏汽车应付贸易款项为306.87亿元，较2024年底增加32.96%，增速位居16家车企之首，其增长与公司收入快速增长有关。具体来看，2025年上半年，公司期末应付账款达到169.59亿元，和2024年年末的151.82亿元相比，增加约11.71%。从应付账款的账龄结构来看，3至6个月账龄比例大幅增加，由2024年年末的3.28亿元增长至2025年上半年的10.27亿元，增长约213.63%。0至3个月账龄比例增长约7.24%，由2024年年末的143.78亿元增加至今年上半年的154.19亿元。应付票据总量亦大幅增加。2025年上半年，小鹏汽车应付银行承兑票据为137.28亿元，较2024年年末的78.99亿元增长约78.8%。结构方面，从应付票据按照账龄分析，0至3个月账龄为87.85亿元，较2024年年末的54.48亿元增长约61.26%；3至6个月账龄为49.43亿元，较2024年年末的24.51亿元增长约101.67%。小鹏汽车称，供应商一般授予公司0至60日的信贷期。但从上述账龄数据来看，公司应付账款账龄以0至3个月居多，而3至6个月的应付贸易款项增幅最大。针对小鹏汽车应收分期付款坏账拨备、供应链资金占用等情况，记者9月23日致函小鹏汽车，至记者发稿，公司尚未回复。展望2025年第三季度，小鹏汽车汽车交付量预计为11.3万辆至11.8万辆，按年增加约142.8%至153.6%。总收入预计为196亿元至210亿元，按年增加约94.0%至107.9%。（记者 郭新志 实习记者 李子莘）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EVS.SI":0.6,"XPEV":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":93,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":478927838831368,"gmtCreate":1757943992558,"gmtModify":1757944046780,"author":{"id":"4118993002447300","authorId":"4118993002447300","name":"Leooooyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7648d1d18c43795e4508aa3a658e3fd4","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118993002447300","authorIdStr":"4118993002447300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我平仓了177手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/KWEB 20251121 36.0 CALL\">$KWEB 20251121 36.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a>,结束在老虎的最后一笔交易。3年了 感恩遇见","listText":"我平仓了177手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/KWEB 20251121 36.0 CALL\">$KWEB 20251121 36.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a>,结束在老虎的最后一笔交易。3年了 感恩遇见","text":"我平仓了177手$KWEB 20251121 36.0 CALL$ ,结束在老虎的最后一笔交易。3年了 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17:00","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"蔚来：拟公开发行不超过1.82亿股本公司A类普通股","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173394540","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"为蔚来公司长期发展提供资金支持。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>周三， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a> 盘前大跌，截至发稿跌幅超9%，宣布拟发行181,818,190股A类股票。本次融资包括美国存托股份（ADS）发行及A类普通股发行。将根据投资者需求在ADS发行与普通股发行之间分配融资份额。公司拟授予承销商30天选择权，可额外认购最多27,272,729股ADS（若行使该选择权将完全以ADS结算）。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ecc268c694efc69d36a3930aba08582\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1290\" tg-height=\"409\"/></p><p>本次公开增发新股募集的资金将用于智能电动汽车核心技术研发、开发旗下品牌的未来技术平台及车型、扩大充换电网络以及进一步强化公司资产负债表，增强公司资金实力，为蔚来公司长期发展提供资金支持。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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17:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>周三， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a> 盘前大跌，截至发稿跌幅超9%，宣布拟发行181,818,190股A类股票。本次融资包括美国存托股份（ADS）发行及A类普通股发行。将根据投资者需求在ADS发行与普通股发行之间分配融资份额。公司拟授予承销商30天选择权，可额外认购最多27,272,729股ADS（若行使该选择权将完全以ADS结算）。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ecc268c694efc69d36a3930aba08582\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1290\" tg-height=\"409\"/></p><p>本次公开增发新股募集的资金将用于智能电动汽车核心技术研发、开发旗下品牌的未来技术平台及车型、扩大充换电网络以及进一步强化公司资产负债表，增强公司资金实力，为蔚来公司长期发展提供资金支持。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3380231cb191ca9bea37a0c70765537d","relate_stocks":{"NIO.SI":"蔚来","09866":"蔚来-SW","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173394540","content_text":"周三， 蔚来 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我和中国资产的缘分一直很好","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d74b15285c6696366e1bbf7a11087bd7","width":"981","height":"1637"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/402513715319296","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1303,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"10000000000010523","authorId":"10000000000010523","name":"财富大元宝","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5749c9428d206c1502f68209d60128d6","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"10000000000010523","authorIdStr":"10000000000010523"},"content":"最近中概行情不错~","text":"最近中概行情不错~","html":"最近中概行情不错~"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":442857108328760,"gmtCreate":1749141746134,"gmtModify":1749141749888,"author":{"id":"4118993002447300","authorId":"4118993002447300","name":"Leooooyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7648d1d18c43795e4508aa3a658e3fd4","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118993002447300","authorIdStr":"4118993002447300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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终于等到开撕，做空的好时候来了。川普几乎和第一任期的所有重臣都闹翻了，有些还成了死敌。。老马危矣。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658daab655789e37837a31938aaccbe2","width":"981","height":"1637"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/442857108328760","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2868,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":484169835864448,"gmtCreate":1759234305806,"gmtModify":1759234308136,"author":{"id":"4118993002447300","authorId":"4118993002447300","name":"Leooooyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7648d1d18c43795e4508aa3a658e3fd4","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118993002447300","authorIdStr":"4118993002447300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"友商请的写手吗","listText":"友商请的写手吗","text":"友商请的写手吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/484169835864448","repostId":"2571696399","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2571696399","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1759200304,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2571696399?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-09-30 10:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"信用销售规模暴增 小鹏汽车巨额客户按揭尾款存减值风险","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2571696399","media":"中国能源网","summary":"小鹏汽车预计第三季度总收入在196亿元至210亿元之间，同比增长约94%至107.9%。小鹏汽车在财报中将应收账款与应收分期付款分开进行列报。截至今年6月底，小鹏汽车应收账款和票据净额合计17.64亿元，较2025年年初减少27.97%。这些活动在刺激销售的同时，也使得小鹏汽车对客户的应收分期付款规模持续增长。小鹏汽车称，供应商一般授予公司0至60日的信贷期。","content":"<p>自从两年前原<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601633\">长城汽车</a>（601633.SH，02333.HK）副董事长、总裁王凤英出任<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>（09868.HK）联席总裁后，其主导的渠道变革、成本管控取得了一定效果——<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09868\">小鹏汽车</a>9月22日披露的中期报告显示，公司汽车产品销量、营业收入同比均大幅增长，当期亏损大幅收窄，但累计亏损扩大至427.44亿元。</p><p>《经济参考报》记者注意到，小鹏汽车从2023年启动“木星计划”至今年上半年，直营店占比已由早期的约70%下降至目前的约30%。借助“渠道变革+信用销售”，公司汽车销量实现“逆袭”，应收款项结构大变，应收分期付款余额增长至72.55亿元。</p><p>“投资者在分析小鹏汽车应收账款的同时，要高度注意公司不断增加的应收分期付款规模及坏账计提情况”，9月23日，知名财税审专家刘志耕在接受《经济参考报》记者采访时表示，由于预期信用损失风险的计算模型存在一定的主观空间，可能成为公司利润调节工具。受宏观经济波动及行业周期等因素影响，这些规模庞大的分期付款违约率可能上升，公司需建立压力测试模型，评估不同经济场景下的风险敞口。</p><p><strong>应收分期付款规模跳跃式增长</strong></p><p>中报显示，今年上半年，小鹏汽车实现总收入340.9亿元，同比增长132.5%，归属于公司普通股股东的净利润为-11.4亿元，较去年同期的-26.53亿元大幅收窄。尽管如此，小鹏汽车的累计亏损扩大至427.44亿元。</p><p>上半年公司业绩改善源于汽车交付量增加。今年上半年，小鹏汽车交付量约为19.72万辆，同比增加279%。7月份总交付量约为3.67万辆，前7月累计交付量约为23.39万辆。小鹏汽车预计第三季度总收入在196亿元至210亿元之间，同比增长约94%至107.9%。</p><p>收入大增，赊销功不可没。小鹏汽车在财报中将应收账款与应收分期付款分开进行列报。其中，应收账款及票据指在正常销售汽车过程中，应收大批量购车者的款项，以及代客户收取的政府补贴款项。应收分期付款主要包括公司应收客户的汽车或电池分期付款的应收款项总额。</p><p>截至今年6月底，小鹏汽车应收账款和票据净额合计17.64亿元，较2025年年初减少27.97%。不过，公司期末应收分期付款的流动部分净额为26.71亿元，较2025年年初增加4.40%，应收分期付款的非流动部分净额为45.84亿元，较2024年年末增加1.78%，两项合计72.55亿元，较2024年年末增加2.26%。</p><p>小鹏汽车应收款结构之所以出现“一增一减”的变化，与公司销售模式变化有关。</p><p>2023年1月，王凤英出任小鹏汽车总裁后主抓两件事：销售渠道整合和成本管控。截至2022年底，小鹏汽车在中国大陆共有420家门店，其中：直营门店294家（占比约70%）、经销商门店126家（占比约30%），公司2022年汽车总销量为12.08万辆。2023年、2024年汽车总销量分别为14.16万辆、19万辆，今年上半年增加到19.72万辆，超过去年全年交付量。截至今年6月底，小鹏汽车在中国内地共有677家门店，其中经销商门店约474家，直营门店约203家。</p><p>记者注意到，小鹏汽车近年来推出了不少类似“零首付购车”的杠杆购车活动。这些活动在刺激销售的同时，也使得小鹏汽车对客户的应收分期付款规模持续增长。</p><p>财报显示，2022年、2023年、2024年及2025年上半年，小鹏汽车应收分期付款期末账面值分别为35.71亿元、50.31亿元、70.95亿元及73.46亿元，呈现出跳跃式增长态势，对应当期坏账计提金额分别为0.88亿元、1.22亿元、0.88亿元及0.90亿元，坏账计提比例分别为2.46%、2.42%、1.24%及1.23%，坏账计提比例呈现不断下滑趋势。无论是坏账计提金额还是计提比例均与应收分期支付款规模走势相悖。</p><p>小鹏汽车近年来应收分期付款及坏账计提情况 （单位/亿元）</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b416e2979d1cd69deb400271039886ba\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"212\"></p><p>资料来源：公司公告 制表：郭新志</p><p>小鹏汽车没有解释应收分期付款暴增的具体原因。公司称，公司应收账款主要包括代表客户向政府领取的与政府补贴有关的车辆销售金额及向大批量客户在常规业务中的车辆销售金额。向个人客户的销售通常通过客户的垫款作出。向大批量买方的销售按介乎30至60日的信用期作出。</p><p><strong>占用供应链资金状况有待改善</strong></p><p>近年来，车企利用自身地位占用供应商资金现象突出，引发社会广泛关注。《保障中小企业款项支付条例》修订版自今年6月1日起正式实施，众多车企纷纷承诺“60天账期”。9月15日，中国汽车工业协会就“整车企业供应商账款支付规范”发出倡议。倡导整车企业支付账期自供应商企业交货并通过整车企业验收合格之日起计算，最长不超过60个自然日（如支付当日遇法定节假日顺延）。</p><p>应付贸易款项是观察上市车企占用供应商贸易款项的重要评估指标。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300033\">同花顺</a>iFinD数据显示，今年上半年，纳入统计范围的16家上市乘用车企业（A股+H股）的应付账款和应付票据（以下简称“应付贸易款项”）合计0.95万亿元，较2024年年末减少6.21%，其中，13家车企的应付贸易款项呈现下降趋势，表明车企占用供应商资金的情况整体有所缓解。</p><p>财报显示，截至今年6月30日，小鹏汽车应付贸易款项为306.87亿元，较2024年底增加32.96%，增速位居16家车企之首，其增长与公司收入快速增长有关。</p><p>具体来看，2025年上半年，公司期末应付账款达到169.59亿元，和2024年年末的151.82亿元相比，增加约11.71%。</p><p>从应付账款的账龄结构来看，3至6个月账龄比例大幅增加，由2024年年末的3.28亿元增长至2025年上半年的10.27亿元，增长约213.63%。0至3个月账龄比例增长约7.24%，由2024年年末的143.78亿元增加至今年上半年的154.19亿元。</p><p>应付票据总量亦大幅增加。2025年上半年，小鹏汽车应付银行承兑票据为137.28亿元，较2024年年末的78.99亿元增长约78.8%。</p><p>结构方面，从应付票据按照账龄分析，0至3个月账龄为87.85亿元，较2024年年末的54.48亿元增长约61.26%；3至6个月账龄为49.43亿元，较2024年年末的24.51亿元增长约101.67%。</p><p>小鹏汽车称，供应商一般授予公司0至60日的信贷期。但从上述账龄数据来看，公司应付账款账龄以0至3个月居多，而3至6个月的应付贸易款项增幅最大。</p><p>针对小鹏汽车应收分期付款坏账拨备、供应链资金占用等情况，记者9月23日致函小鹏汽车，至记者发稿，公司尚未回复。</p><p>展望2025年第三季度，小鹏汽车汽车交付量预计为11.3万辆至11.8万辆，按年增加约142.8%至153.6%。总收入预计为196亿元至210亿元，按年增加约94.0%至107.9%。（记者 郭新志 实习记者 李子莘）</p>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>信用销售规模暴增 小鹏汽车巨额客户按揭尾款存减值风险</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n信用销售规模暴增 小鹏汽车巨额客户按揭尾款存减值风险\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-09-30 10:45 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250930104843954d6249&s=b><strong>中国能源网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>自从两年前原长城汽车（601633.SH，02333.HK）副董事长、总裁王凤英出任小鹏汽车（09868.HK）联席总裁后，其主导的渠道变革、成本管控取得了一定效果——小鹏汽车9月22日披露的中期报告显示，公司汽车产品销量、营业收入同比均大幅增长，当期亏损大幅收窄，但累计亏损扩大至427.44亿元。《经济参考报》记者注意到，小鹏汽车从2023年启动“木星计划”至今年上半年，直营店占比已由早期的约...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250930104843954d6249&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","BK4555":"新能源车","EVS.SI":"MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility ETF-NikkoAM","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250930104843954d6249&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2571696399","content_text":"自从两年前原长城汽车（601633.SH，02333.HK）副董事长、总裁王凤英出任小鹏汽车（09868.HK）联席总裁后，其主导的渠道变革、成本管控取得了一定效果——小鹏汽车9月22日披露的中期报告显示，公司汽车产品销量、营业收入同比均大幅增长，当期亏损大幅收窄，但累计亏损扩大至427.44亿元。《经济参考报》记者注意到，小鹏汽车从2023年启动“木星计划”至今年上半年，直营店占比已由早期的约70%下降至目前的约30%。借助“渠道变革+信用销售”，公司汽车销量实现“逆袭”，应收款项结构大变，应收分期付款余额增长至72.55亿元。“投资者在分析小鹏汽车应收账款的同时，要高度注意公司不断增加的应收分期付款规模及坏账计提情况”，9月23日，知名财税审专家刘志耕在接受《经济参考报》记者采访时表示，由于预期信用损失风险的计算模型存在一定的主观空间，可能成为公司利润调节工具。受宏观经济波动及行业周期等因素影响，这些规模庞大的分期付款违约率可能上升，公司需建立压力测试模型，评估不同经济场景下的风险敞口。应收分期付款规模跳跃式增长中报显示，今年上半年，小鹏汽车实现总收入340.9亿元，同比增长132.5%，归属于公司普通股股东的净利润为-11.4亿元，较去年同期的-26.53亿元大幅收窄。尽管如此，小鹏汽车的累计亏损扩大至427.44亿元。上半年公司业绩改善源于汽车交付量增加。今年上半年，小鹏汽车交付量约为19.72万辆，同比增加279%。7月份总交付量约为3.67万辆，前7月累计交付量约为23.39万辆。小鹏汽车预计第三季度总收入在196亿元至210亿元之间，同比增长约94%至107.9%。收入大增，赊销功不可没。小鹏汽车在财报中将应收账款与应收分期付款分开进行列报。其中，应收账款及票据指在正常销售汽车过程中，应收大批量购车者的款项，以及代客户收取的政府补贴款项。应收分期付款主要包括公司应收客户的汽车或电池分期付款的应收款项总额。截至今年6月底，小鹏汽车应收账款和票据净额合计17.64亿元，较2025年年初减少27.97%。不过，公司期末应收分期付款的流动部分净额为26.71亿元，较2025年年初增加4.40%，应收分期付款的非流动部分净额为45.84亿元，较2024年年末增加1.78%，两项合计72.55亿元，较2024年年末增加2.26%。小鹏汽车应收款结构之所以出现“一增一减”的变化，与公司销售模式变化有关。2023年1月，王凤英出任小鹏汽车总裁后主抓两件事：销售渠道整合和成本管控。截至2022年底，小鹏汽车在中国大陆共有420家门店，其中：直营门店294家（占比约70%）、经销商门店126家（占比约30%），公司2022年汽车总销量为12.08万辆。2023年、2024年汽车总销量分别为14.16万辆、19万辆，今年上半年增加到19.72万辆，超过去年全年交付量。截至今年6月底，小鹏汽车在中国内地共有677家门店，其中经销商门店约474家，直营门店约203家。记者注意到，小鹏汽车近年来推出了不少类似“零首付购车”的杠杆购车活动。这些活动在刺激销售的同时，也使得小鹏汽车对客户的应收分期付款规模持续增长。财报显示，2022年、2023年、2024年及2025年上半年，小鹏汽车应收分期付款期末账面值分别为35.71亿元、50.31亿元、70.95亿元及73.46亿元，呈现出跳跃式增长态势，对应当期坏账计提金额分别为0.88亿元、1.22亿元、0.88亿元及0.90亿元，坏账计提比例分别为2.46%、2.42%、1.24%及1.23%，坏账计提比例呈现不断下滑趋势。无论是坏账计提金额还是计提比例均与应收分期支付款规模走势相悖。小鹏汽车近年来应收分期付款及坏账计提情况 （单位/亿元）资料来源：公司公告 制表：郭新志小鹏汽车没有解释应收分期付款暴增的具体原因。公司称，公司应收账款主要包括代表客户向政府领取的与政府补贴有关的车辆销售金额及向大批量客户在常规业务中的车辆销售金额。向个人客户的销售通常通过客户的垫款作出。向大批量买方的销售按介乎30至60日的信用期作出。占用供应链资金状况有待改善近年来，车企利用自身地位占用供应商资金现象突出，引发社会广泛关注。《保障中小企业款项支付条例》修订版自今年6月1日起正式实施，众多车企纷纷承诺“60天账期”。9月15日，中国汽车工业协会就“整车企业供应商账款支付规范”发出倡议。倡导整车企业支付账期自供应商企业交货并通过整车企业验收合格之日起计算，最长不超过60个自然日（如支付当日遇法定节假日顺延）。应付贸易款项是观察上市车企占用供应商贸易款项的重要评估指标。同花顺iFinD数据显示，今年上半年，纳入统计范围的16家上市乘用车企业（A股+H股）的应付账款和应付票据（以下简称“应付贸易款项”）合计0.95万亿元，较2024年年末减少6.21%，其中，13家车企的应付贸易款项呈现下降趋势，表明车企占用供应商资金的情况整体有所缓解。财报显示，截至今年6月30日，小鹏汽车应付贸易款项为306.87亿元，较2024年底增加32.96%，增速位居16家车企之首，其增长与公司收入快速增长有关。具体来看，2025年上半年，公司期末应付账款达到169.59亿元，和2024年年末的151.82亿元相比，增加约11.71%。从应付账款的账龄结构来看，3至6个月账龄比例大幅增加，由2024年年末的3.28亿元增长至2025年上半年的10.27亿元，增长约213.63%。0至3个月账龄比例增长约7.24%，由2024年年末的143.78亿元增加至今年上半年的154.19亿元。应付票据总量亦大幅增加。2025年上半年，小鹏汽车应付银行承兑票据为137.28亿元，较2024年年末的78.99亿元增长约78.8%。结构方面，从应付票据按照账龄分析，0至3个月账龄为87.85亿元，较2024年年末的54.48亿元增长约61.26%；3至6个月账龄为49.43亿元，较2024年年末的24.51亿元增长约101.67%。小鹏汽车称，供应商一般授予公司0至60日的信贷期。但从上述账龄数据来看，公司应付账款账龄以0至3个月居多，而3至6个月的应付贸易款项增幅最大。针对小鹏汽车应收分期付款坏账拨备、供应链资金占用等情况，记者9月23日致函小鹏汽车，至记者发稿，公司尚未回复。展望2025年第三季度，小鹏汽车汽车交付量预计为11.3万辆至11.8万辆，按年增加约142.8%至153.6%。总收入预计为196亿元至210亿元，按年增加约94.0%至107.9%。（记者 郭新志 实习记者 李子莘）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EVS.SI":0.6,"XPEV":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":93,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":477139097911784,"gmtCreate":1757511413476,"gmtModify":1757511414628,"author":{"id":"4118993002447300","authorId":"4118993002447300","name":"Leooooyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7648d1d18c43795e4508aa3a658e3fd4","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118993002447300","authorIdStr":"4118993002447300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"缺德公司","listText":"缺德公司","text":"缺德公司","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/477139097911784","repostId":"1173394540","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1173394540","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1757494812,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1173394540?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-09-10 17:00","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"蔚来：拟公开发行不超过1.82亿股本公司A类普通股","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173394540","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"为蔚来公司长期发展提供资金支持。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>周三， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a> 盘前大跌，截至发稿跌幅超9%，宣布拟发行181,818,190股A类股票。本次融资包括美国存托股份（ADS）发行及A类普通股发行。将根据投资者需求在ADS发行与普通股发行之间分配融资份额。公司拟授予承销商30天选择权，可额外认购最多27,272,729股ADS（若行使该选择权将完全以ADS结算）。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ecc268c694efc69d36a3930aba08582\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1290\" tg-height=\"409\"/></p><p>本次公开增发新股募集的资金将用于智能电动汽车核心技术研发、开发旗下品牌的未来技术平台及车型、扩大充换电网络以及进一步强化公司资产负债表，增强公司资金实力，为蔚来公司长期发展提供资金支持。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>蔚来：拟公开发行不超过1.82亿股本公司A类普通股</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n蔚来：拟公开发行不超过1.82亿股本公司A类普通股\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-09-10 17:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>周三， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a> 盘前大跌，截至发稿跌幅超9%，宣布拟发行181,818,190股A类股票。本次融资包括美国存托股份（ADS）发行及A类普通股发行。将根据投资者需求在ADS发行与普通股发行之间分配融资份额。公司拟授予承销商30天选择权，可额外认购最多27,272,729股ADS（若行使该选择权将完全以ADS结算）。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ecc268c694efc69d36a3930aba08582\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1290\" tg-height=\"409\"/></p><p>本次公开增发新股募集的资金将用于智能电动汽车核心技术研发、开发旗下品牌的未来技术平台及车型、扩大充换电网络以及进一步强化公司资产负债表，增强公司资金实力，为蔚来公司长期发展提供资金支持。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3380231cb191ca9bea37a0c70765537d","relate_stocks":{"NIO.SI":"蔚来","09866":"蔚来-SW","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173394540","content_text":"周三， 蔚来 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空单止盈，暂时不看空，等待趋势明朗后再决定交易方向","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8775c1fe31cea5971380dceb5bb02765","width":"981","height":"1637"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/413119900598784","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":905,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":684393270,"gmtCreate":1660097703991,"gmtModify":1660098453891,"author":{"id":"4118993002447300","authorId":"4118993002447300","name":"Leooooyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7648d1d18c43795e4508aa3a658e3fd4","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118993002447300","authorIdStr":"4118993002447300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"如果油价真的长期处于高位，只会促进能源转型最终抑制石油需求","listText":"如果油价真的长期处于高位，只会促进能源转型最终抑制石油需求","text":"如果油价真的长期处于高位，只会促进能源转型最终抑制石油需求","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/684393270","repostId":"1113000180","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1113000180","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1660088372,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1113000180?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-08-10 07:39","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“油价将在年底飙升”！高盛继续唱多，这是详细的看涨逻辑","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113000180","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摘要：高盛的看涨观点得到了三个驱动因素的支持：（1）原油市场仍然供不应求——创纪录的零售燃油价格无法阻止6月和7月的市场短缺，而现在的价格要低得多，有助于支持需求；（2）即使假设期货现货价格存在历史性","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>摘要：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>的看涨观点得到了三个驱动因素的支持：（1）原油市场仍然供不应求——创纪录的零售燃油价格无法阻止6月和7月的市场短缺，而现在的价格要低得多，有助于支持需求；（2）即使假设期货现货价格存在历史性缺口，也需要更高的布伦特期货价格；（3）原油仍然是最便宜的能源，可以替代天然气。</blockquote><p>经济衰退阴霾令市场需求预期承压，上周WTI油价创下4月份以来最大单周跌幅，大摩指出，高油价开始破坏需求超级周期见顶，不过“原油旗手”高盛依旧看多，称油价有强劲上行风险，下半年布伦特原油或升至130美元/桶。</p><p>高盛分析师、能源研究主管和高级大宗商品策略师Damien Courvalin认为，一旦市场对经济衰退、俄罗斯生产复苏和美国SPR释放的担忧缓解，油价上涨的可能性仍然很大。</p><blockquote>即使假设所有这些负面冲击发挥作用，油价上涨的理由仍然很充分，原油市场供应短缺的程度仍然超过我们的预期。</blockquote><p>高盛将第三季度和第四季度的布伦特原油价格的预测分别下调至每桶110美元和125美元，此前为每桶140美元和130美元。另外，高盛对2023年的预期维持每桶125美元不变。</p><p>Courvalin和他的团队预计，<b>以目前的价格，原油市场将继续处于不可持续的供给短缺状态</b>。因此，平衡油市供需仍然要靠经济持续放缓背景下的石油需求破坏，在这方面高盛比市场共识更谨慎。高盛认为，这需要布油当量燃料零售价格大幅反弹到150美元/桶，而这意味着美国汽油和柴油零售价格在2022年第四季度达到4.35美元/加仑和5.45美元/加仑。</p><p>具体来看高盛是如何推演出“油价将在年底飙升”的。</p><p>何为“正确”的油价？高盛的价格预测框架</p><p>高盛承认，其看涨观点需要先解决布伦特原油与布油当量的全球原油现货之间的巨大价差。今年6-7月布伦特原油平均价格为110美元/桶，而后者为160美元/桶。</p><p>Courvalin指出，从好的方面来看上述价差在油价崩溃之前接近其预测，从坏的方面来看价差比预期大，更糟糕的是，高盛对原油现货的预期并没有导致更多的需求破坏供应短缺。</p><p>正如高盛所解释的，对于油价而言有两大价格因素对原油市场至关重要：</p><ul><li>消费者支付的原油现货价格（燃料零售价格），因为其<b>推动了需求弹性</b>；</li><li>生产商购买的原油价格，因为其<b>驱动着供应弹性</b>。</li></ul><p>2021年以前，两者之间一直保持较稳定的关系，但后来随着从原油转化为燃料的每一个步骤都严重扭曲了价格，两者之间的价差不断被拉大。俄罗斯能源与欧洲天然气危机也可能是这一价差扩大的原因。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ecd8287fd9b3a44fcd45e935406b6ac\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"695\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>理解了两者价格的脱节，就可以理解高盛对布油期货预测的框架和结论，<b>鉴于创纪录的低库存和缺乏供应弹性，原油现货价格是原油市场的关键平衡机制。这使得该行在其基本模型中求解零售价格，即实现需求弹性的水平，并随后得出其布伦特期货价格预测</b>。因此，高盛将原油现货价格表述为面对&#34;消费者&#34;的布伦特价格，即其估计消费者和全球经济实际支付的布伦特油价。</p><p>回顾过去，高盛对6月和7月的布伦特月度平均价格的预测是125美元和140美元/桶，而其预测布油消费价格为150-160美元/桶。但实际上，前两月的布油期货价格为117美元和105美元/桶，低于高盛的预测；而布油消费价格为150-170美元，略高于其预测。</p><p>总结来说，<b>这种创纪录的高溢价、布伦特原油价格的新一轮暴跌以及当前处于极端低位的原油现货溢价，都可以归咎于不断下降的大宗商品期货市场流动性</b>。此外，原油倒挂的极端水平也用同样的理由解释。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a5114dc5089bb3f14f609163e202f82\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>两大因素破坏原油基本面，现货期货价格传导机制扭曲</p><p>新冠疫情和对俄罗斯持续的能源制裁成为对原油基本面两个史无前例的破坏因素，两者都推动了价格波动的急剧上升，而这一趋势很快就被极端的库存水平所加剧。</p><p>更重要的是，这种波动迫使投资者远离商品市场，从而更进一步支持了价格的波动。<b>这种自我强化机制的一个关键<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/838275\">驱动力</a>是使用风险价值（VaR），即投资组合在给定置信区间的定义时期内的潜在价值损失。</b></p><p>当价格和波动性上升时，与一定数量的商品相关的风险值也会上升，迫使商品市场风险经理减少他们的交易规模，即使实物市场的规模没有变化，也会留下缩减的头寸。类似的说法也适用于银行和交易商，大大降低了生产商的对冲能力，进一步限制了他们对未来生产的投资能力，因为再投资率需要降低，以配合油价的更高波动性。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a0a2aed9bbadcb96bc360d3a9f5303c\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"425\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>高盛认为，这种远大于预期的巨大价差主要与俄罗斯能源和欧盟天然气危机有关，其影响到的三大因素包括清洁货运、欧盟天然气价格和美元都对原油市场产生冲击。而7月份较弱的炼油利润和美国政府继续通过税收减免和补贴来压制零售价格的努力而部分抵消。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30a8e6866ab0eb90d1ee09c58b62a674\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>由于高盛之前认为商品是真实的资产，能为当前的供需不平衡定价，因此在其逻辑中，投资者对商品期货的交易有助于将预期的供需变化转化为直接的价格信号。从本质上讲，投资者的参与有助于平滑基本冲击，激励供应和需求弹性，以防止短缺或中断的结果。</p><p>当然，这并不意味着现货价格形成机制被打破了，因为明显目前的现货价格仍然准确地反映了近几个月的实物市场非常紧张。但是因为俄乌冲突和欧洲天然气危机的影响下，期货商品价格的传导机制被扭曲了。</p><p>看涨原油的四大驱动因素</p><p>高盛继续解释其看涨的驱动因素：</p><ul><li>其最新的基本供需预期。</li><li>通过需求弹性来平衡原油市场所需的现货价格水平（面对创纪录的低库存和无弹性的供应，这是唯一剩下的缓冲区）。</li><li>现货价格和期货价格之间的预期差距。</li><li>投资者从商品期货市场流出的情况变化。</li></ul><p>高盛认为，从基本面来看，原油供应继续令人失望，而需求则受到反复的疫情影响和欧洲天然气危机的影响依旧高涨，按照Courvalin所说，原油需求比预期更加坚挺。高盛认为，因为商品市场需要平衡，库存不可能归零。</p><p>换句话说，在经济持续放缓的基础上破坏需求，需要通过高额的零售燃料价格来结束市场赤字。即使谨慎地假设经济增长比经济学家的更弱，高盛预测布伦特消费价格在22年第四季度和2023年需要平均达到150美元/桶。</p><p>然而，预测布伦特原油期货缺乏流动性则使得高盛不得不假设布油现货和期货价格之间的价差从历史上的宽泛水平小幅缩小到5美元/桶，直到2023年。因此其预测22年第四季度和2023年的布伦特金融价格为125美元/桶，而之前为130美元和125美元，都远远高于目前低于三位数的布伦特价格。</p><p>缺乏投资者参与的的流动性短缺使得高盛对其22年第三季度的预测进行了最大的下调，现在是110美元/桶，而之前是140美元/桶。这一修订说明，现货价格的下调反映了俄罗斯供应量增加和SPR释放速度快于预期；以及布油期货价格对现货价格折价反映了美元走强和粘性高的实物溢价。</p><p>基于上述情况，高盛还首次对美国汽油和柴油零售价格的预测，该行预计，<b>到22年第四季度，美国汽油和柴油价格将回升至4.35美元和5.50美元/加仑，2023年的平均水平为4.40美元和5.25美元/加仑。</b>按照高盛的预测，美国零售燃油价格将在年底前反弹，然后从23年第二季度开始下降，因为炼油和营销利润开始正常化。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93d1eda9a773de0b449c9a07ef642d6c\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>综上所述，高盛的看涨观点得到了三个驱动因素的支持：<b>（1）原油市场仍然供不应求——创纪录的零售燃油价格无法阻止6月和7月的市场短缺，而现在的价格要低得多，有助于支持需求；（2）即使假设期货现货价格存在历史性缺口，也需要更高的布伦特期货价格；（3）原油仍然是最便宜的能源，可以替代天然气。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccacb921dcf7cb249c4b091a8da9d65b\" tg-width=\"929\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“油价将在年底飙升”！高盛继续唱多，这是详细的看涨逻辑</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“油价将在年底飙升”！高盛继续唱多，这是详细的看涨逻辑\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-10 07:39 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3667230><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摘要：高盛的看涨观点得到了三个驱动因素的支持：（1）原油市场仍然供不应求——创纪录的零售燃油价格无法阻止6月和7月的市场短缺，而现在的价格要低得多，有助于支持需求；（2）即使假设期货现货价格存在历史性缺口，也需要更高的布伦特期货价格；（3）原油仍然是最便宜的能源，可以替代天然气。经济衰退阴霾令市场需求预期承压，上周WTI油价创下4月份以来最大单周跌幅，大摩指出，高油价开始破坏需求超级周期见顶，不过...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3667230\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3faadc006e67e6ac130a7b171f263b4d","relate_stocks":{"BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","GS":"高盛","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3667230","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1113000180","content_text":"摘要：高盛的看涨观点得到了三个驱动因素的支持：（1）原油市场仍然供不应求——创纪录的零售燃油价格无法阻止6月和7月的市场短缺，而现在的价格要低得多，有助于支持需求；（2）即使假设期货现货价格存在历史性缺口，也需要更高的布伦特期货价格；（3）原油仍然是最便宜的能源，可以替代天然气。经济衰退阴霾令市场需求预期承压，上周WTI油价创下4月份以来最大单周跌幅，大摩指出，高油价开始破坏需求超级周期见顶，不过“原油旗手”高盛依旧看多，称油价有强劲上行风险，下半年布伦特原油或升至130美元/桶。高盛分析师、能源研究主管和高级大宗商品策略师Damien Courvalin认为，一旦市场对经济衰退、俄罗斯生产复苏和美国SPR释放的担忧缓解，油价上涨的可能性仍然很大。即使假设所有这些负面冲击发挥作用，油价上涨的理由仍然很充分，原油市场供应短缺的程度仍然超过我们的预期。高盛将第三季度和第四季度的布伦特原油价格的预测分别下调至每桶110美元和125美元，此前为每桶140美元和130美元。另外，高盛对2023年的预期维持每桶125美元不变。Courvalin和他的团队预计，以目前的价格，原油市场将继续处于不可持续的供给短缺状态。因此，平衡油市供需仍然要靠经济持续放缓背景下的石油需求破坏，在这方面高盛比市场共识更谨慎。高盛认为，这需要布油当量燃料零售价格大幅反弹到150美元/桶，而这意味着美国汽油和柴油零售价格在2022年第四季度达到4.35美元/加仑和5.45美元/加仑。具体来看高盛是如何推演出“油价将在年底飙升”的。何为“正确”的油价？高盛的价格预测框架高盛承认，其看涨观点需要先解决布伦特原油与布油当量的全球原油现货之间的巨大价差。今年6-7月布伦特原油平均价格为110美元/桶，而后者为160美元/桶。Courvalin指出，从好的方面来看上述价差在油价崩溃之前接近其预测，从坏的方面来看价差比预期大，更糟糕的是，高盛对原油现货的预期并没有导致更多的需求破坏供应短缺。正如高盛所解释的，对于油价而言有两大价格因素对原油市场至关重要：消费者支付的原油现货价格（燃料零售价格），因为其推动了需求弹性；生产商购买的原油价格，因为其驱动着供应弹性。2021年以前，两者之间一直保持较稳定的关系，但后来随着从原油转化为燃料的每一个步骤都严重扭曲了价格，两者之间的价差不断被拉大。俄罗斯能源与欧洲天然气危机也可能是这一价差扩大的原因。理解了两者价格的脱节，就可以理解高盛对布油期货预测的框架和结论，鉴于创纪录的低库存和缺乏供应弹性，原油现货价格是原油市场的关键平衡机制。这使得该行在其基本模型中求解零售价格，即实现需求弹性的水平，并随后得出其布伦特期货价格预测。因此，高盛将原油现货价格表述为面对\"消费者\"的布伦特价格，即其估计消费者和全球经济实际支付的布伦特油价。回顾过去，高盛对6月和7月的布伦特月度平均价格的预测是125美元和140美元/桶，而其预测布油消费价格为150-160美元/桶。但实际上，前两月的布油期货价格为117美元和105美元/桶，低于高盛的预测；而布油消费价格为150-170美元，略高于其预测。总结来说，这种创纪录的高溢价、布伦特原油价格的新一轮暴跌以及当前处于极端低位的原油现货溢价，都可以归咎于不断下降的大宗商品期货市场流动性。此外，原油倒挂的极端水平也用同样的理由解释。两大因素破坏原油基本面，现货期货价格传导机制扭曲新冠疫情和对俄罗斯持续的能源制裁成为对原油基本面两个史无前例的破坏因素，两者都推动了价格波动的急剧上升，而这一趋势很快就被极端的库存水平所加剧。更重要的是，这种波动迫使投资者远离商品市场，从而更进一步支持了价格的波动。这种自我强化机制的一个关键驱动力是使用风险价值（VaR），即投资组合在给定置信区间的定义时期内的潜在价值损失。当价格和波动性上升时，与一定数量的商品相关的风险值也会上升，迫使商品市场风险经理减少他们的交易规模，即使实物市场的规模没有变化，也会留下缩减的头寸。类似的说法也适用于银行和交易商，大大降低了生产商的对冲能力，进一步限制了他们对未来生产的投资能力，因为再投资率需要降低，以配合油价的更高波动性。高盛认为，这种远大于预期的巨大价差主要与俄罗斯能源和欧盟天然气危机有关，其影响到的三大因素包括清洁货运、欧盟天然气价格和美元都对原油市场产生冲击。而7月份较弱的炼油利润和美国政府继续通过税收减免和补贴来压制零售价格的努力而部分抵消。由于高盛之前认为商品是真实的资产，能为当前的供需不平衡定价，因此在其逻辑中，投资者对商品期货的交易有助于将预期的供需变化转化为直接的价格信号。从本质上讲，投资者的参与有助于平滑基本冲击，激励供应和需求弹性，以防止短缺或中断的结果。当然，这并不意味着现货价格形成机制被打破了，因为明显目前的现货价格仍然准确地反映了近几个月的实物市场非常紧张。但是因为俄乌冲突和欧洲天然气危机的影响下，期货商品价格的传导机制被扭曲了。看涨原油的四大驱动因素高盛继续解释其看涨的驱动因素：其最新的基本供需预期。通过需求弹性来平衡原油市场所需的现货价格水平（面对创纪录的低库存和无弹性的供应，这是唯一剩下的缓冲区）。现货价格和期货价格之间的预期差距。投资者从商品期货市场流出的情况变化。高盛认为，从基本面来看，原油供应继续令人失望，而需求则受到反复的疫情影响和欧洲天然气危机的影响依旧高涨，按照Courvalin所说，原油需求比预期更加坚挺。高盛认为，因为商品市场需要平衡，库存不可能归零。换句话说，在经济持续放缓的基础上破坏需求，需要通过高额的零售燃料价格来结束市场赤字。即使谨慎地假设经济增长比经济学家的更弱，高盛预测布伦特消费价格在22年第四季度和2023年需要平均达到150美元/桶。然而，预测布伦特原油期货缺乏流动性则使得高盛不得不假设布油现货和期货价格之间的价差从历史上的宽泛水平小幅缩小到5美元/桶，直到2023年。因此其预测22年第四季度和2023年的布伦特金融价格为125美元/桶，而之前为130美元和125美元，都远远高于目前低于三位数的布伦特价格。缺乏投资者参与的的流动性短缺使得高盛对其22年第三季度的预测进行了最大的下调，现在是110美元/桶，而之前是140美元/桶。这一修订说明，现货价格的下调反映了俄罗斯供应量增加和SPR释放速度快于预期；以及布油期货价格对现货价格折价反映了美元走强和粘性高的实物溢价。基于上述情况，高盛还首次对美国汽油和柴油零售价格的预测，该行预计，到22年第四季度，美国汽油和柴油价格将回升至4.35美元和5.50美元/加仑，2023年的平均水平为4.40美元和5.25美元/加仑。按照高盛的预测，美国零售燃油价格将在年底前反弹，然后从23年第二季度开始下降，因为炼油和营销利润开始正常化。综上所述，高盛的看涨观点得到了三个驱动因素的支持：（1）原油市场仍然供不应求——创纪录的零售燃油价格无法阻止6月和7月的市场短缺，而现在的价格要低得多，有助于支持需求；（2）即使假设期货现货价格存在历史性缺口，也需要更高的布伦特期货价格；（3）原油仍然是最便宜的能源，可以替代天然气。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3035,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":478927838831368,"gmtCreate":1757943992558,"gmtModify":1757944046780,"author":{"id":"4118993002447300","authorId":"4118993002447300","name":"Leooooyy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7648d1d18c43795e4508aa3a658e3fd4","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118993002447300","authorIdStr":"4118993002447300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我平仓了177手<a 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