Winner Wang的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Winner Wang

Winner Wang

MAKE UNIVERSITY GREAT ALONG ！

IP属地：江苏

68关注

4粉丝

1主题

0勋章

2024-10-22

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 讲到选举，哈里斯优势是没有大的黑料，劣势是也无所作为，看不到她的能力在哪。

2025-06-17

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 特斯拉是全美国乃至全人类的希望，只有新技术才能让年轻人更有机会，才能促进平权！

2025-10-04

$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ 判断circle有没有价值很简单。假如你有10个亿，你想不想全世界多元化投资？这么多钱，你传统金融不方便，是不是要走链？走链你觉得是usdt安全，还是sec监管下的usdc安全？usdc的铸造量不光是对circle的审计能看出来，对coinbase的审计也能推断出来。总之，链上资产安全性上，usdc那叫一个放心。主要要看链上资产的未开活跃度

2025-05-07

‌[贱笑] ‌

财报前瞻 | 游戏广告双轮驱动腾讯业绩稳增，AI 赋能打开估值修复空间

2025-01-04

$英伟达(NVDA)$ $TSLA 20250103 320.0 PUT$$TSLA 20250103 320.0 PUT$

2025-07-19

baby我们的感情就像跳楼机

2025-07-15

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 合并算了

2025-07-13

$SLV 20250919 33.0 CALL$

2025-07-01

想抄底，高盛想抄底，别让他得逞

2025-06-18

最好还是对冲下吧，你们觉得呢

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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总之，链上资产安全性上，usdc那叫一个放心。主要要看链上资产的未开活跃度","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/485321397313632","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3823,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":458263466156296,"gmtCreate":1752918009551,"gmtModify":1752918021882,"author":{"id":"4184318417731922","authorId":"4184318417731922","name":"Winner 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href=\"\">[贱笑]&nbsp;</a>‌","text":"‌[贱笑] ‌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/432474615399256","repostId":"1153469961","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1153469961","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1746617339,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1153469961?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-05-07 19:28","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"财报前瞻 | 游戏广告双轮驱动腾讯业绩稳增，AI 赋能打开估值修复空间","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153469961","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"腾讯2025年第一季度财报将于5月14日公布，其核心驱动因素包括国内游戏流水创历史新高、视频号广告加载率提升以及AI技术带来的成本优化。目前市场对腾讯的盈利能力较为乐观。上季度回顾2024 年第四季度，腾讯收入同比增长 11% 至1724 亿元，Non-IFRS 净利润同比增长 30% 至553 亿元，延续了第三季度以来的复苏态势。考虑到腾讯当前动态市盈率仅22倍左右（港股），显著低于历史平均水平和行业均值，估值修复空间较大。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>腾讯2025年第一季度财报将于5月14日公布，其核心驱动因素包括国内游戏流水创历史新高、视频号广告加载率提升以及AI技术带来的成本优化。<strong>游戏业务</strong>预计同比增长18%；<strong>广告业务</strong>预计增长20%；<strong>金融科技与企业服务</strong>预计增长5%。<strong>宏观环境</strong>上，中国货币政策宽松利好金融科技和消费相关广告需求，而美国关税对游戏出口影响有限。</p></blockquote><h3 id=\"id_3516018935\">市场预测</h3><p>我们搜集了多家机构意见，目前市场普遍预测腾讯2025年第一季度业绩将保持稳健增长，收入预计将达到1737-1778亿元人民币，同比增长约9%-11%，Non-IFRS净利润预计为609-630亿元人民币，同比增长约21%-23%。这一预期共识主要基于游戏业务国内外双增长、视频号广告商业化加速以及AI技术驱动的效率提升。目前市场对腾讯的盈利能力较为乐观。</p><h3 id=\"id_634620681\">上季度回顾</h3><p>2024 年第四季度，腾讯收入同比增长 11% 至1724 亿元，Non-IFRS 净利润同比增长 30% 至553 亿元，延续了第三季度以来的复苏态势。游戏业务成为主要增长引擎，国际市场收入同比增长 15% 至160 亿元，国内游戏收入同比增长 23% 至332 亿元，得益于《王者荣耀》《和平精英》等头部产品的强劲表现。广告业务同比增长 17% 至350 亿元，视频号广告收入占比提升显著，受益于广告技术升级和内容生态完善。金融科技与企业服务收入同比增长 3% 至561 亿元，支付业务受宏观经济影响增速放缓，但企业微信、腾讯会议等 AI 升级产品推动增长。研发投入同比增长 21% 至198 亿元，主要用于混元大模型等 AI 技术的迭代和场景应用。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8dff922b86712ee8984989a5fb78489\" alt=\"数据来源：老虎国际\" title=\"数据来源：老虎国际\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\"/><span>数据来源：老虎国际</span></p><h3 id=\"id_2920326323\">本季度展望</h3><p><strong>游戏业务</strong>：2025年第一季度国内游戏收入预计同比增长18%左右，主要得益于春节期间《王者荣耀》《和平精英》等头部游戏的DAU和流水创历史新高。《王者荣耀》1-2月流水同比增长约9000万美元；《和平精英》在春节期间DAU突破8000万，增长较为强劲；《三角洲行动》4月日活用户突破1200万玩家数持续攀升。<strong>海外游戏收入</strong>预计同比增长13%-17%，主要受益于递延收入确认和新游上线。美国关税对游戏出口影响有限（占比不足3%），但中东、拉美等新兴市场增长显著。<strong>政策预期</strong>方面，国内版号审批持续稳定，2025年1-4月每月均超120款，为腾讯游戏业务提供了长期支持。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61b9944e8b3e9fca9bf89d6e15a19ff8\" title=\"数据来源：腾讯公司财报\" tg-width=\"415\" tg-height=\"323\"/><span>数据来源：腾讯公司财报</span></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/832894ea397d46784e562a27646edb6a\" title=\"数据来源：腾讯公司财报\" tg-width=\"485\" tg-height=\"336\"/><span>数据来源：腾讯公司财报</span></p><p><strong>广告业务</strong>：视频号广告加载率预计提升至4%，AI技术优化广告投放效率（CTR提升约15%），广告收入预计同比增长20%左右至317亿元。视频号流量稳健增长，用户时长同比增长超80%，广告位的逐步开放为腾讯带来了更多变现机会。<strong>政策红利</strong>方面，国内消费提振政策（如”以旧换新”带动汽车、家电销售超1.3万亿元）将增加广告主投放意愿，尤其是电商、家电等行业的广告需求。但需关注广告投放速度与用户体验之间的平衡。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fbe06364ebfa65f7c7b196856495feb\" title=\"数据来源：腾讯公司财报\" tg-width=\"497\" tg-height=\"365\"/><span>数据来源：腾讯公司财报</span></p><p><strong>金融科技与企业服务</strong>：收入侧略有加速，主要收入来自于支付业务。支付业务主要受益于线下消费复苏（央行数据显示非金融机构存款在1/2/3 月同比增长 24%/1%/3%），但增速可能放缓至3%-5%。<strong>云业务</strong>因受算力交付周期影响，预计Q1增速仅为5%。<strong>政策支持</strong>方面，国内”适度宽松货币政策”和”东数西算”2.0战略（预计智能算力需求达1037.3EFLOPS）预计将为腾讯支付业务及腾讯云提供长期增长机遇。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63e46bc04f2257409134db1d12f77ce6\" title=\"数据来源：腾讯公司财报\" tg-width=\"483\" tg-height=\"380\"/><span>数据来源：腾讯公司财报</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccb3d1b0c3d813f5b1c84bfeafd2078d\" title=\"数据来源：中国人民银行\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"479\"/><span>数据来源：中国人民银行</span></p><h3 id=\"id_3741711016\">分析师观点</h3><p>多家机构维持”买入”评级，目标价集中在590-676港元区间，预计腾讯估值仍有35%左右的上行空间。<strong>中金公司</strong>预测腾讯Q1季度经调整营业利润同比增长14%，经调整净利润同比增长20%，认为腾讯AI投入与利润增长的平衡策略有效，视频号广告加载率提升至4%和游戏国内外双增长将推动业绩超预期，维持”跑赢行业”评级，目标价600港元。<strong>国信证券</strong>预测腾讯Q1营收1765亿元，同比增长11%，Non-IFRS净利润609亿元，同比增长21%，主要基于游戏长青产品表现稳健、视频号广告技术升级和支付业务环比改善，维持”优大于市”评级。<strong>瑞银</strong>预计腾讯Q1收入同比增长10%至约1778亿元，Non-IFRS净利润同比增长22%至614亿元，强调AI驱动的广告效率提升和游戏业务韧性。</p><h3 id=\"id_1495893072\">总结</h3><p>腾讯目前核心业务增长逻辑清晰，但需关注广告加载率实际执行情况、云业务算力交付延迟及政策对国际业务的潜在影响。市场分析师观点以看多为主，认为腾讯在AI时代的布局将带来长期增长潜力，但需警惕短期风险因素。</p><p>目前可关注腾讯Q1财报中视频号广告加载率和游戏流水增长是否达到预期；AI技术的研发投入和商业化进展，以及视频号电商生态闭环的构建情况。考虑到腾讯当前动态市盈率仅22倍左右（港股），显著低于历史平均水平和行业均值，估值修复空间较大。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>财报前瞻 | 游戏广告双轮驱动腾讯业绩稳增，AI 赋能打开估值修复空间</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ 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hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n财报前瞻 | 游戏广告双轮驱动腾讯业绩稳增，AI 赋能打开估值修复空间\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-05-07 19:28</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>腾讯2025年第一季度财报将于5月14日公布，其核心驱动因素包括国内游戏流水创历史新高、视频号广告加载率提升以及AI技术带来的成本优化。<strong>游戏业务</strong>预计同比增长18%；<strong>广告业务</strong>预计增长20%；<strong>金融科技与企业服务</strong>预计增长5%。<strong>宏观环境</strong>上，中国货币政策宽松利好金融科技和消费相关广告需求，而美国关税对游戏出口影响有限。</p></blockquote><h3 id=\"id_3516018935\">市场预测</h3><p>我们搜集了多家机构意见，目前市场普遍预测腾讯2025年第一季度业绩将保持稳健增长，收入预计将达到1737-1778亿元人民币，同比增长约9%-11%，Non-IFRS净利润预计为609-630亿元人民币，同比增长约21%-23%。这一预期共识主要基于游戏业务国内外双增长、视频号广告商业化加速以及AI技术驱动的效率提升。目前市场对腾讯的盈利能力较为乐观。</p><h3 id=\"id_634620681\">上季度回顾</h3><p>2024 年第四季度，腾讯收入同比增长 11% 至1724 亿元，Non-IFRS 净利润同比增长 30% 至553 亿元，延续了第三季度以来的复苏态势。游戏业务成为主要增长引擎，国际市场收入同比增长 15% 至160 亿元，国内游戏收入同比增长 23% 至332 亿元，得益于《王者荣耀》《和平精英》等头部产品的强劲表现。广告业务同比增长 17% 至350 亿元，视频号广告收入占比提升显著，受益于广告技术升级和内容生态完善。金融科技与企业服务收入同比增长 3% 至561 亿元，支付业务受宏观经济影响增速放缓，但企业微信、腾讯会议等 AI 升级产品推动增长。研发投入同比增长 21% 至198 亿元，主要用于混元大模型等 AI 技术的迭代和场景应用。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8dff922b86712ee8984989a5fb78489\" alt=\"数据来源：老虎国际\" title=\"数据来源：老虎国际\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\"/><span>数据来源：老虎国际</span></p><h3 id=\"id_2920326323\">本季度展望</h3><p><strong>游戏业务</strong>：2025年第一季度国内游戏收入预计同比增长18%左右，主要得益于春节期间《王者荣耀》《和平精英》等头部游戏的DAU和流水创历史新高。《王者荣耀》1-2月流水同比增长约9000万美元；《和平精英》在春节期间DAU突破8000万，增长较为强劲；《三角洲行动》4月日活用户突破1200万玩家数持续攀升。<strong>海外游戏收入</strong>预计同比增长13%-17%，主要受益于递延收入确认和新游上线。美国关税对游戏出口影响有限（占比不足3%），但中东、拉美等新兴市场增长显著。<strong>政策预期</strong>方面，国内版号审批持续稳定，2025年1-4月每月均超120款，为腾讯游戏业务提供了长期支持。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61b9944e8b3e9fca9bf89d6e15a19ff8\" title=\"数据来源：腾讯公司财报\" tg-width=\"415\" tg-height=\"323\"/><span>数据来源：腾讯公司财报</span></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/832894ea397d46784e562a27646edb6a\" title=\"数据来源：腾讯公司财报\" tg-width=\"485\" tg-height=\"336\"/><span>数据来源：腾讯公司财报</span></p><p><strong>广告业务</strong>：视频号广告加载率预计提升至4%，AI技术优化广告投放效率（CTR提升约15%），广告收入预计同比增长20%左右至317亿元。视频号流量稳健增长，用户时长同比增长超80%，广告位的逐步开放为腾讯带来了更多变现机会。<strong>政策红利</strong>方面，国内消费提振政策（如”以旧换新”带动汽车、家电销售超1.3万亿元）将增加广告主投放意愿，尤其是电商、家电等行业的广告需求。但需关注广告投放速度与用户体验之间的平衡。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fbe06364ebfa65f7c7b196856495feb\" title=\"数据来源：腾讯公司财报\" tg-width=\"497\" tg-height=\"365\"/><span>数据来源：腾讯公司财报</span></p><p><strong>金融科技与企业服务</strong>：收入侧略有加速，主要收入来自于支付业务。支付业务主要受益于线下消费复苏（央行数据显示非金融机构存款在1/2/3 月同比增长 24%/1%/3%），但增速可能放缓至3%-5%。<strong>云业务</strong>因受算力交付周期影响，预计Q1增速仅为5%。<strong>政策支持</strong>方面，国内”适度宽松货币政策”和”东数西算”2.0战略（预计智能算力需求达1037.3EFLOPS）预计将为腾讯支付业务及腾讯云提供长期增长机遇。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63e46bc04f2257409134db1d12f77ce6\" title=\"数据来源：腾讯公司财报\" tg-width=\"483\" tg-height=\"380\"/><span>数据来源：腾讯公司财报</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccb3d1b0c3d813f5b1c84bfeafd2078d\" title=\"数据来源：中国人民银行\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"479\"/><span>数据来源：中国人民银行</span></p><h3 id=\"id_3741711016\">分析师观点</h3><p>多家机构维持”买入”评级，目标价集中在590-676港元区间，预计腾讯估值仍有35%左右的上行空间。<strong>中金公司</strong>预测腾讯Q1季度经调整营业利润同比增长14%，经调整净利润同比增长20%，认为腾讯AI投入与利润增长的平衡策略有效，视频号广告加载率提升至4%和游戏国内外双增长将推动业绩超预期，维持”跑赢行业”评级，目标价600港元。<strong>国信证券</strong>预测腾讯Q1营收1765亿元，同比增长11%，Non-IFRS净利润609亿元，同比增长21%，主要基于游戏长青产品表现稳健、视频号广告技术升级和支付业务环比改善，维持”优大于市”评级。<strong>瑞银</strong>预计腾讯Q1收入同比增长10%至约1778亿元，Non-IFRS净利润同比增长22%至614亿元，强调AI驱动的广告效率提升和游戏业务韧性。</p><h3 id=\"id_1495893072\">总结</h3><p>腾讯目前核心业务增长逻辑清晰，但需关注广告加载率实际执行情况、云业务算力交付延迟及政策对国际业务的潜在影响。市场分析师观点以看多为主，认为腾讯在AI时代的布局将带来长期增长潜力，但需警惕短期风险因素。</p><p>目前可关注腾讯Q1财报中视频号广告加载率和游戏流水增长是否达到预期；AI技术的研发投入和商业化进展，以及视频号电商生态闭环的构建情况。考虑到腾讯当前动态市盈率仅22倍左右（港股），显著低于历史平均水平和行业均值，估值修复空间较大。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7799eeb7043b8caaf3d109c3b13109e","relate_stocks":{"80700":"腾讯控股-R","TCEHY":"腾讯控股ADR","00700":"腾讯控股"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153469961","content_text":"腾讯2025年第一季度财报将于5月14日公布，其核心驱动因素包括国内游戏流水创历史新高、视频号广告加载率提升以及AI技术带来的成本优化。游戏业务预计同比增长18%；广告业务预计增长20%；金融科技与企业服务预计增长5%。宏观环境上，中国货币政策宽松利好金融科技和消费相关广告需求，而美国关税对游戏出口影响有限。市场预测我们搜集了多家机构意见，目前市场普遍预测腾讯2025年第一季度业绩将保持稳健增长，收入预计将达到1737-1778亿元人民币，同比增长约9%-11%，Non-IFRS净利润预计为609-630亿元人民币，同比增长约21%-23%。这一预期共识主要基于游戏业务国内外双增长、视频号广告商业化加速以及AI技术驱动的效率提升。目前市场对腾讯的盈利能力较为乐观。上季度回顾2024 年第四季度，腾讯收入同比增长 11% 至1724 亿元，Non-IFRS 净利润同比增长 30% 至553 亿元，延续了第三季度以来的复苏态势。游戏业务成为主要增长引擎，国际市场收入同比增长 15% 至160 亿元，国内游戏收入同比增长 23% 至332 亿元，得益于《王者荣耀》《和平精英》等头部产品的强劲表现。广告业务同比增长 17% 至350 亿元，视频号广告收入占比提升显著，受益于广告技术升级和内容生态完善。金融科技与企业服务收入同比增长 3% 至561 亿元，支付业务受宏观经济影响增速放缓，但企业微信、腾讯会议等 AI 升级产品推动增长。研发投入同比增长 21% 至198 亿元，主要用于混元大模型等 AI 技术的迭代和场景应用。数据来源：老虎国际本季度展望游戏业务：2025年第一季度国内游戏收入预计同比增长18%左右，主要得益于春节期间《王者荣耀》《和平精英》等头部游戏的DAU和流水创历史新高。《王者荣耀》1-2月流水同比增长约9000万美元；《和平精英》在春节期间DAU突破8000万，增长较为强劲；《三角洲行动》4月日活用户突破1200万玩家数持续攀升。海外游戏收入预计同比增长13%-17%，主要受益于递延收入确认和新游上线。美国关税对游戏出口影响有限（占比不足3%），但中东、拉美等新兴市场增长显著。政策预期方面，国内版号审批持续稳定，2025年1-4月每月均超120款，为腾讯游戏业务提供了长期支持。数据来源：腾讯公司财报数据来源：腾讯公司财报广告业务：视频号广告加载率预计提升至4%，AI技术优化广告投放效率（CTR提升约15%），广告收入预计同比增长20%左右至317亿元。视频号流量稳健增长，用户时长同比增长超80%，广告位的逐步开放为腾讯带来了更多变现机会。政策红利方面，国内消费提振政策（如”以旧换新”带动汽车、家电销售超1.3万亿元）将增加广告主投放意愿，尤其是电商、家电等行业的广告需求。但需关注广告投放速度与用户体验之间的平衡。数据来源：腾讯公司财报金融科技与企业服务：收入侧略有加速，主要收入来自于支付业务。支付业务主要受益于线下消费复苏（央行数据显示非金融机构存款在1/2/3 月同比增长 24%/1%/3%），但增速可能放缓至3%-5%。云业务因受算力交付周期影响，预计Q1增速仅为5%。政策支持方面，国内”适度宽松货币政策”和”东数西算”2.0战略（预计智能算力需求达1037.3EFLOPS）预计将为腾讯支付业务及腾讯云提供长期增长机遇。数据来源：腾讯公司财报数据来源：中国人民银行分析师观点多家机构维持”买入”评级，目标价集中在590-676港元区间，预计腾讯估值仍有35%左右的上行空间。中金公司预测腾讯Q1季度经调整营业利润同比增长14%，经调整净利润同比增长20%，认为腾讯AI投入与利润增长的平衡策略有效，视频号广告加载率提升至4%和游戏国内外双增长将推动业绩超预期，维持”跑赢行业”评级，目标价600港元。国信证券预测腾讯Q1营收1765亿元，同比增长11%，Non-IFRS净利润609亿元，同比增长21%，主要基于游戏长青产品表现稳健、视频号广告技术升级和支付业务环比改善，维持”优大于市”评级。瑞银预计腾讯Q1收入同比增长10%至约1778亿元，Non-IFRS净利润同比增长22%至614亿元，强调AI驱动的广告效率提升和游戏业务韧性。总结腾讯目前核心业务增长逻辑清晰，但需关注广告加载率实际执行情况、云业务算力交付延迟及政策对国际业务的潜在影响。市场分析师观点以看多为主，认为腾讯在AI时代的布局将带来长期增长潜力，但需警惕短期风险因素。目前可关注腾讯Q1财报中视频号广告加载率和游戏流水增长是否达到预期；AI技术的研发投入和商业化进展，以及视频号电商生态闭环的构建情况。考虑到腾讯当前动态市盈率仅22倍左右（港股），显著低于历史平均水平和行业均值，估值修复空间较大。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"80700":1.1,"00700":1.1,"TCEHY":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2451,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":410204722397440,"gmtCreate":1741157363366,"gmtModify":1741157366547,"author":{"id":"4184318417731922","authorId":"4184318417731922","name":"Winner 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另外，和英伟达的对比，相较我觉得特斯拉潜力更大，是应用端的，再加上马斯克确实神人，干哪行都第一。特斯拉唯一问题是政治问题，作为消费者，我可能不支持谁的立场，但产品好用还是会买这家产品","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/410204722397440","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3466,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":406005377212680,"gmtCreate":1740148778863,"gmtModify":1740148780722,"author":{"id":"4184318417731922","authorId":"4184318417731922","name":"Winner Wang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53876a54ff72a76795b15969329a2f65","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4184318417731922","authorIdStr":"4184318417731922"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"特斯拉其实就是多模态etf，只要老马不死，绝对起飞！","listText":"特斯拉其实就是多模态etf，只要老马不死，绝对起飞！","text":"特斯拉其实就是多模态etf，只要老马不死，绝对起飞！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/406005377212680","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2597,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":398443757740224,"gmtCreate":1738298988899,"gmtModify":1738301850206,"author":{"id":"4184318417731922","authorId":"4184318417731922","name":"Winner Wang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53876a54ff72a76795b15969329a2f65","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4184318417731922","authorIdStr":"4184318417731922"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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‌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/432474615399256","repostId":"1153469961","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1153469961","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1746617339,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1153469961?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-05-07 19:28","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"财报前瞻 | 游戏广告双轮驱动腾讯业绩稳增，AI 赋能打开估值修复空间","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153469961","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"腾讯2025年第一季度财报将于5月14日公布，其核心驱动因素包括国内游戏流水创历史新高、视频号广告加载率提升以及AI技术带来的成本优化。目前市场对腾讯的盈利能力较为乐观。上季度回顾2024 年第四季度，腾讯收入同比增长 11% 至1724 亿元，Non-IFRS 净利润同比增长 30% 至553 亿元，延续了第三季度以来的复苏态势。考虑到腾讯当前动态市盈率仅22倍左右（港股），显著低于历史平均水平和行业均值，估值修复空间较大。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>腾讯2025年第一季度财报将于5月14日公布，其核心驱动因素包括国内游戏流水创历史新高、视频号广告加载率提升以及AI技术带来的成本优化。<strong>游戏业务</strong>预计同比增长18%；<strong>广告业务</strong>预计增长20%；<strong>金融科技与企业服务</strong>预计增长5%。<strong>宏观环境</strong>上，中国货币政策宽松利好金融科技和消费相关广告需求，而美国关税对游戏出口影响有限。</p></blockquote><h3 id=\"id_3516018935\">市场预测</h3><p>我们搜集了多家机构意见，目前市场普遍预测腾讯2025年第一季度业绩将保持稳健增长，收入预计将达到1737-1778亿元人民币，同比增长约9%-11%，Non-IFRS净利润预计为609-630亿元人民币，同比增长约21%-23%。这一预期共识主要基于游戏业务国内外双增长、视频号广告商业化加速以及AI技术驱动的效率提升。目前市场对腾讯的盈利能力较为乐观。</p><h3 id=\"id_634620681\">上季度回顾</h3><p>2024 年第四季度，腾讯收入同比增长 11% 至1724 亿元，Non-IFRS 净利润同比增长 30% 至553 亿元，延续了第三季度以来的复苏态势。游戏业务成为主要增长引擎，国际市场收入同比增长 15% 至160 亿元，国内游戏收入同比增长 23% 至332 亿元，得益于《王者荣耀》《和平精英》等头部产品的强劲表现。广告业务同比增长 17% 至350 亿元，视频号广告收入占比提升显著，受益于广告技术升级和内容生态完善。金融科技与企业服务收入同比增长 3% 至561 亿元，支付业务受宏观经济影响增速放缓，但企业微信、腾讯会议等 AI 升级产品推动增长。研发投入同比增长 21% 至198 亿元，主要用于混元大模型等 AI 技术的迭代和场景应用。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8dff922b86712ee8984989a5fb78489\" alt=\"数据来源：老虎国际\" title=\"数据来源：老虎国际\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\"/><span>数据来源：老虎国际</span></p><h3 id=\"id_2920326323\">本季度展望</h3><p><strong>游戏业务</strong>：2025年第一季度国内游戏收入预计同比增长18%左右，主要得益于春节期间《王者荣耀》《和平精英》等头部游戏的DAU和流水创历史新高。《王者荣耀》1-2月流水同比增长约9000万美元；《和平精英》在春节期间DAU突破8000万，增长较为强劲；《三角洲行动》4月日活用户突破1200万玩家数持续攀升。<strong>海外游戏收入</strong>预计同比增长13%-17%，主要受益于递延收入确认和新游上线。美国关税对游戏出口影响有限（占比不足3%），但中东、拉美等新兴市场增长显著。<strong>政策预期</strong>方面，国内版号审批持续稳定，2025年1-4月每月均超120款，为腾讯游戏业务提供了长期支持。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61b9944e8b3e9fca9bf89d6e15a19ff8\" title=\"数据来源：腾讯公司财报\" tg-width=\"415\" tg-height=\"323\"/><span>数据来源：腾讯公司财报</span></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/832894ea397d46784e562a27646edb6a\" title=\"数据来源：腾讯公司财报\" tg-width=\"485\" tg-height=\"336\"/><span>数据来源：腾讯公司财报</span></p><p><strong>广告业务</strong>：视频号广告加载率预计提升至4%，AI技术优化广告投放效率（CTR提升约15%），广告收入预计同比增长20%左右至317亿元。视频号流量稳健增长，用户时长同比增长超80%，广告位的逐步开放为腾讯带来了更多变现机会。<strong>政策红利</strong>方面，国内消费提振政策（如”以旧换新”带动汽车、家电销售超1.3万亿元）将增加广告主投放意愿，尤其是电商、家电等行业的广告需求。但需关注广告投放速度与用户体验之间的平衡。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fbe06364ebfa65f7c7b196856495feb\" title=\"数据来源：腾讯公司财报\" tg-width=\"497\" tg-height=\"365\"/><span>数据来源：腾讯公司财报</span></p><p><strong>金融科技与企业服务</strong>：收入侧略有加速，主要收入来自于支付业务。支付业务主要受益于线下消费复苏（央行数据显示非金融机构存款在1/2/3 月同比增长 24%/1%/3%），但增速可能放缓至3%-5%。<strong>云业务</strong>因受算力交付周期影响，预计Q1增速仅为5%。<strong>政策支持</strong>方面，国内”适度宽松货币政策”和”东数西算”2.0战略（预计智能算力需求达1037.3EFLOPS）预计将为腾讯支付业务及腾讯云提供长期增长机遇。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63e46bc04f2257409134db1d12f77ce6\" title=\"数据来源：腾讯公司财报\" tg-width=\"483\" tg-height=\"380\"/><span>数据来源：腾讯公司财报</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccb3d1b0c3d813f5b1c84bfeafd2078d\" title=\"数据来源：中国人民银行\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"479\"/><span>数据来源：中国人民银行</span></p><h3 id=\"id_3741711016\">分析师观点</h3><p>多家机构维持”买入”评级，目标价集中在590-676港元区间，预计腾讯估值仍有35%左右的上行空间。<strong>中金公司</strong>预测腾讯Q1季度经调整营业利润同比增长14%，经调整净利润同比增长20%，认为腾讯AI投入与利润增长的平衡策略有效，视频号广告加载率提升至4%和游戏国内外双增长将推动业绩超预期，维持”跑赢行业”评级，目标价600港元。<strong>国信证券</strong>预测腾讯Q1营收1765亿元，同比增长11%，Non-IFRS净利润609亿元，同比增长21%，主要基于游戏长青产品表现稳健、视频号广告技术升级和支付业务环比改善，维持”优大于市”评级。<strong>瑞银</strong>预计腾讯Q1收入同比增长10%至约1778亿元，Non-IFRS净利润同比增长22%至614亿元，强调AI驱动的广告效率提升和游戏业务韧性。</p><h3 id=\"id_1495893072\">总结</h3><p>腾讯目前核心业务增长逻辑清晰，但需关注广告加载率实际执行情况、云业务算力交付延迟及政策对国际业务的潜在影响。市场分析师观点以看多为主，认为腾讯在AI时代的布局将带来长期增长潜力，但需警惕短期风险因素。</p><p>目前可关注腾讯Q1财报中视频号广告加载率和游戏流水增长是否达到预期；AI技术的研发投入和商业化进展，以及视频号电商生态闭环的构建情况。考虑到腾讯当前动态市盈率仅22倍左右（港股），显著低于历史平均水平和行业均值，估值修复空间较大。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>财报前瞻 | 游戏广告双轮驱动腾讯业绩稳增，AI 赋能打开估值修复空间</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ 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hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n财报前瞻 | 游戏广告双轮驱动腾讯业绩稳增，AI 赋能打开估值修复空间\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-05-07 19:28</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>腾讯2025年第一季度财报将于5月14日公布，其核心驱动因素包括国内游戏流水创历史新高、视频号广告加载率提升以及AI技术带来的成本优化。<strong>游戏业务</strong>预计同比增长18%；<strong>广告业务</strong>预计增长20%；<strong>金融科技与企业服务</strong>预计增长5%。<strong>宏观环境</strong>上，中国货币政策宽松利好金融科技和消费相关广告需求，而美国关税对游戏出口影响有限。</p></blockquote><h3 id=\"id_3516018935\">市场预测</h3><p>我们搜集了多家机构意见，目前市场普遍预测腾讯2025年第一季度业绩将保持稳健增长，收入预计将达到1737-1778亿元人民币，同比增长约9%-11%，Non-IFRS净利润预计为609-630亿元人民币，同比增长约21%-23%。这一预期共识主要基于游戏业务国内外双增长、视频号广告商业化加速以及AI技术驱动的效率提升。目前市场对腾讯的盈利能力较为乐观。</p><h3 id=\"id_634620681\">上季度回顾</h3><p>2024 年第四季度，腾讯收入同比增长 11% 至1724 亿元，Non-IFRS 净利润同比增长 30% 至553 亿元，延续了第三季度以来的复苏态势。游戏业务成为主要增长引擎，国际市场收入同比增长 15% 至160 亿元，国内游戏收入同比增长 23% 至332 亿元，得益于《王者荣耀》《和平精英》等头部产品的强劲表现。广告业务同比增长 17% 至350 亿元，视频号广告收入占比提升显著，受益于广告技术升级和内容生态完善。金融科技与企业服务收入同比增长 3% 至561 亿元，支付业务受宏观经济影响增速放缓，但企业微信、腾讯会议等 AI 升级产品推动增长。研发投入同比增长 21% 至198 亿元，主要用于混元大模型等 AI 技术的迭代和场景应用。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8dff922b86712ee8984989a5fb78489\" alt=\"数据来源：老虎国际\" title=\"数据来源：老虎国际\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\"/><span>数据来源：老虎国际</span></p><h3 id=\"id_2920326323\">本季度展望</h3><p><strong>游戏业务</strong>：2025年第一季度国内游戏收入预计同比增长18%左右，主要得益于春节期间《王者荣耀》《和平精英》等头部游戏的DAU和流水创历史新高。《王者荣耀》1-2月流水同比增长约9000万美元；《和平精英》在春节期间DAU突破8000万，增长较为强劲；《三角洲行动》4月日活用户突破1200万玩家数持续攀升。<strong>海外游戏收入</strong>预计同比增长13%-17%，主要受益于递延收入确认和新游上线。美国关税对游戏出口影响有限（占比不足3%），但中东、拉美等新兴市场增长显著。<strong>政策预期</strong>方面，国内版号审批持续稳定，2025年1-4月每月均超120款，为腾讯游戏业务提供了长期支持。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61b9944e8b3e9fca9bf89d6e15a19ff8\" title=\"数据来源：腾讯公司财报\" tg-width=\"415\" tg-height=\"323\"/><span>数据来源：腾讯公司财报</span></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/832894ea397d46784e562a27646edb6a\" title=\"数据来源：腾讯公司财报\" tg-width=\"485\" tg-height=\"336\"/><span>数据来源：腾讯公司财报</span></p><p><strong>广告业务</strong>：视频号广告加载率预计提升至4%，AI技术优化广告投放效率（CTR提升约15%），广告收入预计同比增长20%左右至317亿元。视频号流量稳健增长，用户时长同比增长超80%，广告位的逐步开放为腾讯带来了更多变现机会。<strong>政策红利</strong>方面，国内消费提振政策（如”以旧换新”带动汽车、家电销售超1.3万亿元）将增加广告主投放意愿，尤其是电商、家电等行业的广告需求。但需关注广告投放速度与用户体验之间的平衡。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fbe06364ebfa65f7c7b196856495feb\" title=\"数据来源：腾讯公司财报\" tg-width=\"497\" tg-height=\"365\"/><span>数据来源：腾讯公司财报</span></p><p><strong>金融科技与企业服务</strong>：收入侧略有加速，主要收入来自于支付业务。支付业务主要受益于线下消费复苏（央行数据显示非金融机构存款在1/2/3 月同比增长 24%/1%/3%），但增速可能放缓至3%-5%。<strong>云业务</strong>因受算力交付周期影响，预计Q1增速仅为5%。<strong>政策支持</strong>方面，国内”适度宽松货币政策”和”东数西算”2.0战略（预计智能算力需求达1037.3EFLOPS）预计将为腾讯支付业务及腾讯云提供长期增长机遇。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63e46bc04f2257409134db1d12f77ce6\" title=\"数据来源：腾讯公司财报\" tg-width=\"483\" tg-height=\"380\"/><span>数据来源：腾讯公司财报</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccb3d1b0c3d813f5b1c84bfeafd2078d\" title=\"数据来源：中国人民银行\" tg-width=\"1071\" tg-height=\"479\"/><span>数据来源：中国人民银行</span></p><h3 id=\"id_3741711016\">分析师观点</h3><p>多家机构维持”买入”评级，目标价集中在590-676港元区间，预计腾讯估值仍有35%左右的上行空间。<strong>中金公司</strong>预测腾讯Q1季度经调整营业利润同比增长14%，经调整净利润同比增长20%，认为腾讯AI投入与利润增长的平衡策略有效，视频号广告加载率提升至4%和游戏国内外双增长将推动业绩超预期，维持”跑赢行业”评级，目标价600港元。<strong>国信证券</strong>预测腾讯Q1营收1765亿元，同比增长11%，Non-IFRS净利润609亿元，同比增长21%，主要基于游戏长青产品表现稳健、视频号广告技术升级和支付业务环比改善，维持”优大于市”评级。<strong>瑞银</strong>预计腾讯Q1收入同比增长10%至约1778亿元，Non-IFRS净利润同比增长22%至614亿元，强调AI驱动的广告效率提升和游戏业务韧性。</p><h3 id=\"id_1495893072\">总结</h3><p>腾讯目前核心业务增长逻辑清晰，但需关注广告加载率实际执行情况、云业务算力交付延迟及政策对国际业务的潜在影响。市场分析师观点以看多为主，认为腾讯在AI时代的布局将带来长期增长潜力，但需警惕短期风险因素。</p><p>目前可关注腾讯Q1财报中视频号广告加载率和游戏流水增长是否达到预期；AI技术的研发投入和商业化进展，以及视频号电商生态闭环的构建情况。考虑到腾讯当前动态市盈率仅22倍左右（港股），显著低于历史平均水平和行业均值，估值修复空间较大。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7799eeb7043b8caaf3d109c3b13109e","relate_stocks":{"80700":"腾讯控股-R","TCEHY":"腾讯控股ADR","00700":"腾讯控股"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153469961","content_text":"腾讯2025年第一季度财报将于5月14日公布，其核心驱动因素包括国内游戏流水创历史新高、视频号广告加载率提升以及AI技术带来的成本优化。游戏业务预计同比增长18%；广告业务预计增长20%；金融科技与企业服务预计增长5%。宏观环境上，中国货币政策宽松利好金融科技和消费相关广告需求，而美国关税对游戏出口影响有限。市场预测我们搜集了多家机构意见，目前市场普遍预测腾讯2025年第一季度业绩将保持稳健增长，收入预计将达到1737-1778亿元人民币，同比增长约9%-11%，Non-IFRS净利润预计为609-630亿元人民币，同比增长约21%-23%。这一预期共识主要基于游戏业务国内外双增长、视频号广告商业化加速以及AI技术驱动的效率提升。目前市场对腾讯的盈利能力较为乐观。上季度回顾2024 年第四季度，腾讯收入同比增长 11% 至1724 亿元，Non-IFRS 净利润同比增长 30% 至553 亿元，延续了第三季度以来的复苏态势。游戏业务成为主要增长引擎，国际市场收入同比增长 15% 至160 亿元，国内游戏收入同比增长 23% 至332 亿元，得益于《王者荣耀》《和平精英》等头部产品的强劲表现。广告业务同比增长 17% 至350 亿元，视频号广告收入占比提升显著，受益于广告技术升级和内容生态完善。金融科技与企业服务收入同比增长 3% 至561 亿元，支付业务受宏观经济影响增速放缓，但企业微信、腾讯会议等 AI 升级产品推动增长。研发投入同比增长 21% 至198 亿元，主要用于混元大模型等 AI 技术的迭代和场景应用。数据来源：老虎国际本季度展望游戏业务：2025年第一季度国内游戏收入预计同比增长18%左右，主要得益于春节期间《王者荣耀》《和平精英》等头部游戏的DAU和流水创历史新高。《王者荣耀》1-2月流水同比增长约9000万美元；《和平精英》在春节期间DAU突破8000万，增长较为强劲；《三角洲行动》4月日活用户突破1200万玩家数持续攀升。海外游戏收入预计同比增长13%-17%，主要受益于递延收入确认和新游上线。美国关税对游戏出口影响有限（占比不足3%），但中东、拉美等新兴市场增长显著。政策预期方面，国内版号审批持续稳定，2025年1-4月每月均超120款，为腾讯游戏业务提供了长期支持。数据来源：腾讯公司财报数据来源：腾讯公司财报广告业务：视频号广告加载率预计提升至4%，AI技术优化广告投放效率（CTR提升约15%），广告收入预计同比增长20%左右至317亿元。视频号流量稳健增长，用户时长同比增长超80%，广告位的逐步开放为腾讯带来了更多变现机会。政策红利方面，国内消费提振政策（如”以旧换新”带动汽车、家电销售超1.3万亿元）将增加广告主投放意愿，尤其是电商、家电等行业的广告需求。但需关注广告投放速度与用户体验之间的平衡。数据来源：腾讯公司财报金融科技与企业服务：收入侧略有加速，主要收入来自于支付业务。支付业务主要受益于线下消费复苏（央行数据显示非金融机构存款在1/2/3 月同比增长 24%/1%/3%），但增速可能放缓至3%-5%。云业务因受算力交付周期影响，预计Q1增速仅为5%。政策支持方面，国内”适度宽松货币政策”和”东数西算”2.0战略（预计智能算力需求达1037.3EFLOPS）预计将为腾讯支付业务及腾讯云提供长期增长机遇。数据来源：腾讯公司财报数据来源：中国人民银行分析师观点多家机构维持”买入”评级，目标价集中在590-676港元区间，预计腾讯估值仍有35%左右的上行空间。中金公司预测腾讯Q1季度经调整营业利润同比增长14%，经调整净利润同比增长20%，认为腾讯AI投入与利润增长的平衡策略有效，视频号广告加载率提升至4%和游戏国内外双增长将推动业绩超预期，维持”跑赢行业”评级，目标价600港元。国信证券预测腾讯Q1营收1765亿元，同比增长11%，Non-IFRS净利润609亿元，同比增长21%，主要基于游戏长青产品表现稳健、视频号广告技术升级和支付业务环比改善，维持”优大于市”评级。瑞银预计腾讯Q1收入同比增长10%至约1778亿元，Non-IFRS净利润同比增长22%至614亿元，强调AI驱动的广告效率提升和游戏业务韧性。总结腾讯目前核心业务增长逻辑清晰，但需关注广告加载率实际执行情况、云业务算力交付延迟及政策对国际业务的潜在影响。市场分析师观点以看多为主，认为腾讯在AI时代的布局将带来长期增长潜力，但需警惕短期风险因素。目前可关注腾讯Q1财报中视频号广告加载率和游戏流水增长是否达到预期；AI技术的研发投入和商业化进展，以及视频号电商生态闭环的构建情况。考虑到腾讯当前动态市盈率仅22倍左右（港股），显著低于历史平均水平和行业均值，估值修复空间较大。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"80700":1.1,"00700":1.1,"TCEHY":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2451,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":388663545348616,"gmtCreate":1735930362334,"gmtModify":1735939821071,"author":{"id":"4184318417731922","authorId":"4184318417731922","name":"Winner 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