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MAKE UNIVERSITY GREAT ALONG !
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Winner Wang
05-07 19:43
[贱笑]
财报前瞻 | 游戏广告双轮驱动腾讯业绩稳增,AI 赋能打开估值修复空间
Winner Wang
03-05
a股炒机器人概念的应该看看特斯拉,明显特斯拉比宇树好太多,你看看两家机器人关节的自由度,宇树你买回家除了当玩具表演,你说还能干什么?特斯拉买回家手指都能弹钢琴。 另外,和英伟达的对比,相较我觉得特斯拉潜力更大,是应用端的,再加上马斯克确实神人,干哪行都第一。特斯拉唯一问题是政治问题,作为消费者,我可能不支持谁的立场,但产品好用还是会买这家产品
Winner Wang
02-21
特斯拉其实就是多模态etf,只要老马不死,绝对起飞!
Winner Wang
01-31
$英伟达(NVDA)$
Winner Wang
01-30
英伟达肯定涨,人类离agi还太早
Winner Wang
01-23
腾讯值得价值投资,但小红书概念风险很大
Winner Wang
01-18
$NVDA 20250124 118.0 PUT$
Winner Wang
01-18
$英伟达(NVDA)$
财报必涨
Winner Wang
01-18
明显是telse 给老马又不是给川普
Winner Wang
01-04
$英伟达(NVDA)$
$TSLA 20250103 320.0 PUT$
$TSLA 20250103 320.0 PUT$
Winner Wang
2024-12-20
$微软(MSFT)$
Winner Wang
2024-11-20
$NVDA 20241122 139.0 CALL$
$NVDA 20241122 139.0 CALL$
为了联盟!
Winner Wang
2024-11-13
涨!涨!腾讯开玩笑好股票啊
Winner Wang
2024-10-22
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
讲到选举,哈里斯优势是没有大的黑料,劣势是也无所作为,看不到她的能力在哪。
Winner Wang
2024-10-19
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
必然是涨,大家都能看清哪款电动车的质量不是割韭菜。
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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赋能打开估值修复空间","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153469961","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"腾讯2025年第一季度财报将于5月14日公布,其核心驱动因素包括国内游戏流水创历史新高、视频号广告加载率提升以及AI技术带来的成本优化。目前市场对腾讯的盈利能力较为乐观。上季度回顾2024 年第四季度,腾讯收入同比增长 11% 至1724 亿元,Non-IFRS 净利润同比增长 30% 至553 亿元,延续了第三季度以来的复苏态势。考虑到腾讯当前动态市盈率仅22倍左右(港股),显著低于历史平均水平和行业均值,估值修复空间较大。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>腾讯2025年第一季度财报将于5月14日公布,其核心驱动因素包括国内游戏流水创历史新高、视频号广告加载率提升以及AI技术带来的成本优化。<strong>游戏业务</strong>预计同比增长18%;<strong>广告业务</strong>预计增长20%;<strong>金融科技与企业服务</strong>预计增长5%。<strong>宏观环境</strong>上,中国货币政策宽松利好金融科技和消费相关广告需求,而美国关税对游戏出口影响有限。</p></blockquote><h3 id=\"id_3516018935\">市场预测</h3><p>我们搜集了多家机构意见,目前市场普遍预测腾讯2025年第一季度业绩将保持稳健增长,收入预计将达到1737-1778亿元人民币,同比增长约9%-11%,Non-IFRS净利润预计为609-630亿元人民币,同比增长约21%-23%。这一预期共识主要基于游戏业务国内外双增长、视频号广告商业化加速以及AI技术驱动的效率提升。目前市场对腾讯的盈利能力较为乐观。</p><h3 id=\"id_634620681\">上季度回顾</h3><p>2024 年第四季度,腾讯收入同比增长 11% 至1724 亿元,Non-IFRS 净利润同比增长 30% 至553 亿元,延续了第三季度以来的复苏态势。游戏业务成为主要增长引擎,国际市场收入同比增长 15% 至160 亿元,国内游戏收入同比增长 23% 至332 亿元,得益于《王者荣耀》《和平精英》等头部产品的强劲表现。广告业务同比增长 17% 至350 亿元,视频号广告收入占比提升显著,受益于广告技术升级和内容生态完善。金融科技与企业服务收入同比增长 3% 至561 亿元,支付业务受宏观经济影响增速放缓,但企业微信、腾讯会议等 AI 升级产品推动增长。研发投入同比增长 21% 至198 亿元,主要用于混元大模型等 AI 技术的迭代和场景应用。</p><h3 id=\"id_2920326323\">本季度展望</h3><p><strong>游戏业务</strong>:2025年第一季度国内游戏收入预计同比增长18%左右,主要得益于春节期间《王者荣耀》《和平精英》等头部游戏的DAU和流水创历史新高。《王者荣耀》1-2月流水同比增长约9000万美元;《和平精英》在春节期间DAU突破8000万,增长较为强劲;《三角洲行动》4月日活用户突破1200万玩家数持续攀升。<strong>海外游戏收入</strong>预计同比增长13%-17%,主要受益于递延收入确认和新游上线。美国关税对游戏出口影响有限(占比不足3%),但中东、拉美等新兴市场增长显著。<strong>政策预期</strong>方面,国内版号审批持续稳定,2025年1-4月每月均超120款,为腾讯游戏业务提供了长期支持。</p><p><strong>广告业务</strong>:视频号广告加载率预计提升至4%,AI技术优化广告投放效率(CTR提升约15%),广告收入预计同比增长20%左右至317亿元。视频号流量稳健增长,用户时长同比增长超80%,广告位的逐步开放为腾讯带来了更多变现机会。<strong>政策红利</strong>方面,国内消费提振政策(如”以旧换新”带动汽车、家电销售超1.3万亿元)将增加广告主投放意愿,尤其是电商、家电等行业的广告需求。但需关注广告投放速度与用户体验之间的平衡。</p><p><strong>金融科技与企业服务</strong>:收入侧略有加速,主要收入来自于支付业务。支付业务主要受益于线下消费复苏(央行数据显示非金融机构存款在1/2/3 月同比增长 24%/1%/3%),但增速可能放缓至3%-5%。<strong>云业务</strong>因受算力交付周期影响,预计Q1增速仅为5%。<strong>政策支持</strong>方面,国内”适度宽松货币政策”和”东数西算”2.0战略(预计智能算力需求达1037.3EFLOPS)预计将为腾讯支付业务及腾讯云提供长期增长机遇。</p><h3 id=\"id_3741711016\">分析师观点</h3><p>多家机构维持”买入”评级,目标价集中在590-676港元区间,预计腾讯估值仍有35%左右的上行空间。<strong>中金公司</strong>预测腾讯Q1季度经调整营业利润同比增长14%,经调整净利润同比增长20%,认为腾讯AI投入与利润增长的平衡策略有效,视频号广告加载率提升至4%和游戏国内外双增长将推动业绩超预期,维持”跑赢行业”评级,目标价600港元。<strong>国信证券</strong>预测腾讯Q1营收1765亿元,同比增长11%,Non-IFRS净利润609亿元,同比增长21%,主要基于游戏长青产品表现稳健、视频号广告技术升级和支付业务环比改善,维持”优大于市”评级。<strong>瑞银</strong>预计腾讯Q1收入同比增长10%至约1778亿元,Non-IFRS净利润同比增长22%至614亿元,强调AI驱动的广告效率提升和游戏业务韧性。</p><h3 id=\"id_1495893072\">总结</h3><p>腾讯目前核心业务增长逻辑清晰,但需关注广告加载率实际执行情况、云业务算力交付延迟及政策对国际业务的潜在影响。市场分析师观点以看多为主,认为腾讯在AI时代的布局将带来长期增长潜力,但需警惕短期风险因素。</p><p>目前可关注腾讯Q1财报中视频号广告加载率和游戏流水增长是否达到预期;AI技术的研发投入和商业化进展,以及视频号电商生态闭环的构建情况。考虑到腾讯当前动态市盈率仅22倍左右(港股),显著低于历史平均水平和行业均值,估值修复空间较大。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta 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hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n财报前瞻 | 游戏广告双轮驱动腾讯业绩稳增,AI 赋能打开估值修复空间\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-05-07 19:28</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>腾讯2025年第一季度财报将于5月14日公布,其核心驱动因素包括国内游戏流水创历史新高、视频号广告加载率提升以及AI技术带来的成本优化。<strong>游戏业务</strong>预计同比增长18%;<strong>广告业务</strong>预计增长20%;<strong>金融科技与企业服务</strong>预计增长5%。<strong>宏观环境</strong>上,中国货币政策宽松利好金融科技和消费相关广告需求,而美国关税对游戏出口影响有限。</p></blockquote><h3 id=\"id_3516018935\">市场预测</h3><p>我们搜集了多家机构意见,目前市场普遍预测腾讯2025年第一季度业绩将保持稳健增长,收入预计将达到1737-1778亿元人民币,同比增长约9%-11%,Non-IFRS净利润预计为609-630亿元人民币,同比增长约21%-23%。这一预期共识主要基于游戏业务国内外双增长、视频号广告商业化加速以及AI技术驱动的效率提升。目前市场对腾讯的盈利能力较为乐观。</p><h3 id=\"id_634620681\">上季度回顾</h3><p>2024 年第四季度,腾讯收入同比增长 11% 至1724 亿元,Non-IFRS 净利润同比增长 30% 至553 亿元,延续了第三季度以来的复苏态势。游戏业务成为主要增长引擎,国际市场收入同比增长 15% 至160 亿元,国内游戏收入同比增长 23% 至332 亿元,得益于《王者荣耀》《和平精英》等头部产品的强劲表现。广告业务同比增长 17% 至350 亿元,视频号广告收入占比提升显著,受益于广告技术升级和内容生态完善。金融科技与企业服务收入同比增长 3% 至561 亿元,支付业务受宏观经济影响增速放缓,但企业微信、腾讯会议等 AI 升级产品推动增长。研发投入同比增长 21% 至198 亿元,主要用于混元大模型等 AI 技术的迭代和场景应用。</p><h3 id=\"id_2920326323\">本季度展望</h3><p><strong>游戏业务</strong>:2025年第一季度国内游戏收入预计同比增长18%左右,主要得益于春节期间《王者荣耀》《和平精英》等头部游戏的DAU和流水创历史新高。《王者荣耀》1-2月流水同比增长约9000万美元;《和平精英》在春节期间DAU突破8000万,增长较为强劲;《三角洲行动》4月日活用户突破1200万玩家数持续攀升。<strong>海外游戏收入</strong>预计同比增长13%-17%,主要受益于递延收入确认和新游上线。美国关税对游戏出口影响有限(占比不足3%),但中东、拉美等新兴市场增长显著。<strong>政策预期</strong>方面,国内版号审批持续稳定,2025年1-4月每月均超120款,为腾讯游戏业务提供了长期支持。</p><p><strong>广告业务</strong>:视频号广告加载率预计提升至4%,AI技术优化广告投放效率(CTR提升约15%),广告收入预计同比增长20%左右至317亿元。视频号流量稳健增长,用户时长同比增长超80%,广告位的逐步开放为腾讯带来了更多变现机会。<strong>政策红利</strong>方面,国内消费提振政策(如”以旧换新”带动汽车、家电销售超1.3万亿元)将增加广告主投放意愿,尤其是电商、家电等行业的广告需求。但需关注广告投放速度与用户体验之间的平衡。</p><p><strong>金融科技与企业服务</strong>:收入侧略有加速,主要收入来自于支付业务。支付业务主要受益于线下消费复苏(央行数据显示非金融机构存款在1/2/3 月同比增长 24%/1%/3%),但增速可能放缓至3%-5%。<strong>云业务</strong>因受算力交付周期影响,预计Q1增速仅为5%。<strong>政策支持</strong>方面,国内”适度宽松货币政策”和”东数西算”2.0战略(预计智能算力需求达1037.3EFLOPS)预计将为腾讯支付业务及腾讯云提供长期增长机遇。</p><h3 id=\"id_3741711016\">分析师观点</h3><p>多家机构维持”买入”评级,目标价集中在590-676港元区间,预计腾讯估值仍有35%左右的上行空间。<strong>中金公司</strong>预测腾讯Q1季度经调整营业利润同比增长14%,经调整净利润同比增长20%,认为腾讯AI投入与利润增长的平衡策略有效,视频号广告加载率提升至4%和游戏国内外双增长将推动业绩超预期,维持”跑赢行业”评级,目标价600港元。<strong>国信证券</strong>预测腾讯Q1营收1765亿元,同比增长11%,Non-IFRS净利润609亿元,同比增长21%,主要基于游戏长青产品表现稳健、视频号广告技术升级和支付业务环比改善,维持”优大于市”评级。<strong>瑞银</strong>预计腾讯Q1收入同比增长10%至约1778亿元,Non-IFRS净利润同比增长22%至614亿元,强调AI驱动的广告效率提升和游戏业务韧性。</p><h3 id=\"id_1495893072\">总结</h3><p>腾讯目前核心业务增长逻辑清晰,但需关注广告加载率实际执行情况、云业务算力交付延迟及政策对国际业务的潜在影响。市场分析师观点以看多为主,认为腾讯在AI时代的布局将带来长期增长潜力,但需警惕短期风险因素。</p><p>目前可关注腾讯Q1财报中视频号广告加载率和游戏流水增长是否达到预期;AI技术的研发投入和商业化进展,以及视频号电商生态闭环的构建情况。考虑到腾讯当前动态市盈率仅22倍左右(港股),显著低于历史平均水平和行业均值,估值修复空间较大。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7799eeb7043b8caaf3d109c3b13109e","relate_stocks":{"80700":"腾讯控股-R","00700":"腾讯控股","TCEHY":"腾讯控股ADR"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153469961","content_text":"腾讯2025年第一季度财报将于5月14日公布,其核心驱动因素包括国内游戏流水创历史新高、视频号广告加载率提升以及AI技术带来的成本优化。游戏业务预计同比增长18%;广告业务预计增长20%;金融科技与企业服务预计增长5%。宏观环境上,中国货币政策宽松利好金融科技和消费相关广告需求,而美国关税对游戏出口影响有限。市场预测我们搜集了多家机构意见,目前市场普遍预测腾讯2025年第一季度业绩将保持稳健增长,收入预计将达到1737-1778亿元人民币,同比增长约9%-11%,Non-IFRS净利润预计为609-630亿元人民币,同比增长约21%-23%。这一预期共识主要基于游戏业务国内外双增长、视频号广告商业化加速以及AI技术驱动的效率提升。目前市场对腾讯的盈利能力较为乐观。上季度回顾2024 年第四季度,腾讯收入同比增长 11% 至1724 亿元,Non-IFRS 净利润同比增长 30% 至553 亿元,延续了第三季度以来的复苏态势。游戏业务成为主要增长引擎,国际市场收入同比增长 15% 至160 亿元,国内游戏收入同比增长 23% 至332 亿元,得益于《王者荣耀》《和平精英》等头部产品的强劲表现。广告业务同比增长 17% 至350 亿元,视频号广告收入占比提升显著,受益于广告技术升级和内容生态完善。金融科技与企业服务收入同比增长 3% 至561 亿元,支付业务受宏观经济影响增速放缓,但企业微信、腾讯会议等 AI 升级产品推动增长。研发投入同比增长 21% 至198 亿元,主要用于混元大模型等 AI 技术的迭代和场景应用。本季度展望游戏业务:2025年第一季度国内游戏收入预计同比增长18%左右,主要得益于春节期间《王者荣耀》《和平精英》等头部游戏的DAU和流水创历史新高。《王者荣耀》1-2月流水同比增长约9000万美元;《和平精英》在春节期间DAU突破8000万,增长较为强劲;《三角洲行动》4月日活用户突破1200万玩家数持续攀升。海外游戏收入预计同比增长13%-17%,主要受益于递延收入确认和新游上线。美国关税对游戏出口影响有限(占比不足3%),但中东、拉美等新兴市场增长显著。政策预期方面,国内版号审批持续稳定,2025年1-4月每月均超120款,为腾讯游戏业务提供了长期支持。广告业务:视频号广告加载率预计提升至4%,AI技术优化广告投放效率(CTR提升约15%),广告收入预计同比增长20%左右至317亿元。视频号流量稳健增长,用户时长同比增长超80%,广告位的逐步开放为腾讯带来了更多变现机会。政策红利方面,国内消费提振政策(如”以旧换新”带动汽车、家电销售超1.3万亿元)将增加广告主投放意愿,尤其是电商、家电等行业的广告需求。但需关注广告投放速度与用户体验之间的平衡。金融科技与企业服务:收入侧略有加速,主要收入来自于支付业务。支付业务主要受益于线下消费复苏(央行数据显示非金融机构存款在1/2/3 月同比增长 24%/1%/3%),但增速可能放缓至3%-5%。云业务因受算力交付周期影响,预计Q1增速仅为5%。政策支持方面,国内”适度宽松货币政策”和”东数西算”2.0战略(预计智能算力需求达1037.3EFLOPS)预计将为腾讯支付业务及腾讯云提供长期增长机遇。分析师观点多家机构维持”买入”评级,目标价集中在590-676港元区间,预计腾讯估值仍有35%左右的上行空间。中金公司预测腾讯Q1季度经调整营业利润同比增长14%,经调整净利润同比增长20%,认为腾讯AI投入与利润增长的平衡策略有效,视频号广告加载率提升至4%和游戏国内外双增长将推动业绩超预期,维持”跑赢行业”评级,目标价600港元。国信证券预测腾讯Q1营收1765亿元,同比增长11%,Non-IFRS净利润609亿元,同比增长21%,主要基于游戏长青产品表现稳健、视频号广告技术升级和支付业务环比改善,维持”优大于市”评级。瑞银预计腾讯Q1收入同比增长10%至约1778亿元,Non-IFRS净利润同比增长22%至614亿元,强调AI驱动的广告效率提升和游戏业务韧性。总结腾讯目前核心业务增长逻辑清晰,但需关注广告加载率实际执行情况、云业务算力交付延迟及政策对国际业务的潜在影响。市场分析师观点以看多为主,认为腾讯在AI时代的布局将带来长期增长潜力,但需警惕短期风险因素。目前可关注腾讯Q1财报中视频号广告加载率和游戏流水增长是否达到预期;AI技术的研发投入和商业化进展,以及视频号电商生态闭环的构建情况。考虑到腾讯当前动态市盈率仅22倍左右(港股),显著低于历史平均水平和行业均值,估值修复空间较大。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":410204722397440,"gmtCreate":1741157363366,"gmtModify":1741157366547,"author":{"id":"4184318417731922","authorId":"4184318417731922","name":"Winner 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赋能打开估值修复空间","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153469961","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"腾讯2025年第一季度财报将于5月14日公布,其核心驱动因素包括国内游戏流水创历史新高、视频号广告加载率提升以及AI技术带来的成本优化。目前市场对腾讯的盈利能力较为乐观。上季度回顾2024 年第四季度,腾讯收入同比增长 11% 至1724 亿元,Non-IFRS 净利润同比增长 30% 至553 亿元,延续了第三季度以来的复苏态势。考虑到腾讯当前动态市盈率仅22倍左右(港股),显著低于历史平均水平和行业均值,估值修复空间较大。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>腾讯2025年第一季度财报将于5月14日公布,其核心驱动因素包括国内游戏流水创历史新高、视频号广告加载率提升以及AI技术带来的成本优化。<strong>游戏业务</strong>预计同比增长18%;<strong>广告业务</strong>预计增长20%;<strong>金融科技与企业服务</strong>预计增长5%。<strong>宏观环境</strong>上,中国货币政策宽松利好金融科技和消费相关广告需求,而美国关税对游戏出口影响有限。</p></blockquote><h3 id=\"id_3516018935\">市场预测</h3><p>我们搜集了多家机构意见,目前市场普遍预测腾讯2025年第一季度业绩将保持稳健增长,收入预计将达到1737-1778亿元人民币,同比增长约9%-11%,Non-IFRS净利润预计为609-630亿元人民币,同比增长约21%-23%。这一预期共识主要基于游戏业务国内外双增长、视频号广告商业化加速以及AI技术驱动的效率提升。目前市场对腾讯的盈利能力较为乐观。</p><h3 id=\"id_634620681\">上季度回顾</h3><p>2024 年第四季度,腾讯收入同比增长 11% 至1724 亿元,Non-IFRS 净利润同比增长 30% 至553 亿元,延续了第三季度以来的复苏态势。游戏业务成为主要增长引擎,国际市场收入同比增长 15% 至160 亿元,国内游戏收入同比增长 23% 至332 亿元,得益于《王者荣耀》《和平精英》等头部产品的强劲表现。广告业务同比增长 17% 至350 亿元,视频号广告收入占比提升显著,受益于广告技术升级和内容生态完善。金融科技与企业服务收入同比增长 3% 至561 亿元,支付业务受宏观经济影响增速放缓,但企业微信、腾讯会议等 AI 升级产品推动增长。研发投入同比增长 21% 至198 亿元,主要用于混元大模型等 AI 技术的迭代和场景应用。</p><h3 id=\"id_2920326323\">本季度展望</h3><p><strong>游戏业务</strong>:2025年第一季度国内游戏收入预计同比增长18%左右,主要得益于春节期间《王者荣耀》《和平精英》等头部游戏的DAU和流水创历史新高。《王者荣耀》1-2月流水同比增长约9000万美元;《和平精英》在春节期间DAU突破8000万,增长较为强劲;《三角洲行动》4月日活用户突破1200万玩家数持续攀升。<strong>海外游戏收入</strong>预计同比增长13%-17%,主要受益于递延收入确认和新游上线。美国关税对游戏出口影响有限(占比不足3%),但中东、拉美等新兴市场增长显著。<strong>政策预期</strong>方面,国内版号审批持续稳定,2025年1-4月每月均超120款,为腾讯游戏业务提供了长期支持。</p><p><strong>广告业务</strong>:视频号广告加载率预计提升至4%,AI技术优化广告投放效率(CTR提升约15%),广告收入预计同比增长20%左右至317亿元。视频号流量稳健增长,用户时长同比增长超80%,广告位的逐步开放为腾讯带来了更多变现机会。<strong>政策红利</strong>方面,国内消费提振政策(如”以旧换新”带动汽车、家电销售超1.3万亿元)将增加广告主投放意愿,尤其是电商、家电等行业的广告需求。但需关注广告投放速度与用户体验之间的平衡。</p><p><strong>金融科技与企业服务</strong>:收入侧略有加速,主要收入来自于支付业务。支付业务主要受益于线下消费复苏(央行数据显示非金融机构存款在1/2/3 月同比增长 24%/1%/3%),但增速可能放缓至3%-5%。<strong>云业务</strong>因受算力交付周期影响,预计Q1增速仅为5%。<strong>政策支持</strong>方面,国内”适度宽松货币政策”和”东数西算”2.0战略(预计智能算力需求达1037.3EFLOPS)预计将为腾讯支付业务及腾讯云提供长期增长机遇。</p><h3 id=\"id_3741711016\">分析师观点</h3><p>多家机构维持”买入”评级,目标价集中在590-676港元区间,预计腾讯估值仍有35%左右的上行空间。<strong>中金公司</strong>预测腾讯Q1季度经调整营业利润同比增长14%,经调整净利润同比增长20%,认为腾讯AI投入与利润增长的平衡策略有效,视频号广告加载率提升至4%和游戏国内外双增长将推动业绩超预期,维持”跑赢行业”评级,目标价600港元。<strong>国信证券</strong>预测腾讯Q1营收1765亿元,同比增长11%,Non-IFRS净利润609亿元,同比增长21%,主要基于游戏长青产品表现稳健、视频号广告技术升级和支付业务环比改善,维持”优大于市”评级。<strong>瑞银</strong>预计腾讯Q1收入同比增长10%至约1778亿元,Non-IFRS净利润同比增长22%至614亿元,强调AI驱动的广告效率提升和游戏业务韧性。</p><h3 id=\"id_1495893072\">总结</h3><p>腾讯目前核心业务增长逻辑清晰,但需关注广告加载率实际执行情况、云业务算力交付延迟及政策对国际业务的潜在影响。市场分析师观点以看多为主,认为腾讯在AI时代的布局将带来长期增长潜力,但需警惕短期风险因素。</p><p>目前可关注腾讯Q1财报中视频号广告加载率和游戏流水增长是否达到预期;AI技术的研发投入和商业化进展,以及视频号电商生态闭环的构建情况。考虑到腾讯当前动态市盈率仅22倍左右(港股),显著低于历史平均水平和行业均值,估值修复空间较大。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta 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hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n财报前瞻 | 游戏广告双轮驱动腾讯业绩稳增,AI 赋能打开估值修复空间\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-05-07 19:28</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>腾讯2025年第一季度财报将于5月14日公布,其核心驱动因素包括国内游戏流水创历史新高、视频号广告加载率提升以及AI技术带来的成本优化。<strong>游戏业务</strong>预计同比增长18%;<strong>广告业务</strong>预计增长20%;<strong>金融科技与企业服务</strong>预计增长5%。<strong>宏观环境</strong>上,中国货币政策宽松利好金融科技和消费相关广告需求,而美国关税对游戏出口影响有限。</p></blockquote><h3 id=\"id_3516018935\">市场预测</h3><p>我们搜集了多家机构意见,目前市场普遍预测腾讯2025年第一季度业绩将保持稳健增长,收入预计将达到1737-1778亿元人民币,同比增长约9%-11%,Non-IFRS净利润预计为609-630亿元人民币,同比增长约21%-23%。这一预期共识主要基于游戏业务国内外双增长、视频号广告商业化加速以及AI技术驱动的效率提升。目前市场对腾讯的盈利能力较为乐观。</p><h3 id=\"id_634620681\">上季度回顾</h3><p>2024 年第四季度,腾讯收入同比增长 11% 至1724 亿元,Non-IFRS 净利润同比增长 30% 至553 亿元,延续了第三季度以来的复苏态势。游戏业务成为主要增长引擎,国际市场收入同比增长 15% 至160 亿元,国内游戏收入同比增长 23% 至332 亿元,得益于《王者荣耀》《和平精英》等头部产品的强劲表现。广告业务同比增长 17% 至350 亿元,视频号广告收入占比提升显著,受益于广告技术升级和内容生态完善。金融科技与企业服务收入同比增长 3% 至561 亿元,支付业务受宏观经济影响增速放缓,但企业微信、腾讯会议等 AI 升级产品推动增长。研发投入同比增长 21% 至198 亿元,主要用于混元大模型等 AI 技术的迭代和场景应用。</p><h3 id=\"id_2920326323\">本季度展望</h3><p><strong>游戏业务</strong>:2025年第一季度国内游戏收入预计同比增长18%左右,主要得益于春节期间《王者荣耀》《和平精英》等头部游戏的DAU和流水创历史新高。《王者荣耀》1-2月流水同比增长约9000万美元;《和平精英》在春节期间DAU突破8000万,增长较为强劲;《三角洲行动》4月日活用户突破1200万玩家数持续攀升。<strong>海外游戏收入</strong>预计同比增长13%-17%,主要受益于递延收入确认和新游上线。美国关税对游戏出口影响有限(占比不足3%),但中东、拉美等新兴市场增长显著。<strong>政策预期</strong>方面,国内版号审批持续稳定,2025年1-4月每月均超120款,为腾讯游戏业务提供了长期支持。</p><p><strong>广告业务</strong>:视频号广告加载率预计提升至4%,AI技术优化广告投放效率(CTR提升约15%),广告收入预计同比增长20%左右至317亿元。视频号流量稳健增长,用户时长同比增长超80%,广告位的逐步开放为腾讯带来了更多变现机会。<strong>政策红利</strong>方面,国内消费提振政策(如”以旧换新”带动汽车、家电销售超1.3万亿元)将增加广告主投放意愿,尤其是电商、家电等行业的广告需求。但需关注广告投放速度与用户体验之间的平衡。</p><p><strong>金融科技与企业服务</strong>:收入侧略有加速,主要收入来自于支付业务。支付业务主要受益于线下消费复苏(央行数据显示非金融机构存款在1/2/3 月同比增长 24%/1%/3%),但增速可能放缓至3%-5%。<strong>云业务</strong>因受算力交付周期影响,预计Q1增速仅为5%。<strong>政策支持</strong>方面,国内”适度宽松货币政策”和”东数西算”2.0战略(预计智能算力需求达1037.3EFLOPS)预计将为腾讯支付业务及腾讯云提供长期增长机遇。</p><h3 id=\"id_3741711016\">分析师观点</h3><p>多家机构维持”买入”评级,目标价集中在590-676港元区间,预计腾讯估值仍有35%左右的上行空间。<strong>中金公司</strong>预测腾讯Q1季度经调整营业利润同比增长14%,经调整净利润同比增长20%,认为腾讯AI投入与利润增长的平衡策略有效,视频号广告加载率提升至4%和游戏国内外双增长将推动业绩超预期,维持”跑赢行业”评级,目标价600港元。<strong>国信证券</strong>预测腾讯Q1营收1765亿元,同比增长11%,Non-IFRS净利润609亿元,同比增长21%,主要基于游戏长青产品表现稳健、视频号广告技术升级和支付业务环比改善,维持”优大于市”评级。<strong>瑞银</strong>预计腾讯Q1收入同比增长10%至约1778亿元,Non-IFRS净利润同比增长22%至614亿元,强调AI驱动的广告效率提升和游戏业务韧性。</p><h3 id=\"id_1495893072\">总结</h3><p>腾讯目前核心业务增长逻辑清晰,但需关注广告加载率实际执行情况、云业务算力交付延迟及政策对国际业务的潜在影响。市场分析师观点以看多为主,认为腾讯在AI时代的布局将带来长期增长潜力,但需警惕短期风险因素。</p><p>目前可关注腾讯Q1财报中视频号广告加载率和游戏流水增长是否达到预期;AI技术的研发投入和商业化进展,以及视频号电商生态闭环的构建情况。考虑到腾讯当前动态市盈率仅22倍左右(港股),显著低于历史平均水平和行业均值,估值修复空间较大。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7799eeb7043b8caaf3d109c3b13109e","relate_stocks":{"80700":"腾讯控股-R","00700":"腾讯控股","TCEHY":"腾讯控股ADR"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153469961","content_text":"腾讯2025年第一季度财报将于5月14日公布,其核心驱动因素包括国内游戏流水创历史新高、视频号广告加载率提升以及AI技术带来的成本优化。游戏业务预计同比增长18%;广告业务预计增长20%;金融科技与企业服务预计增长5%。宏观环境上,中国货币政策宽松利好金融科技和消费相关广告需求,而美国关税对游戏出口影响有限。市场预测我们搜集了多家机构意见,目前市场普遍预测腾讯2025年第一季度业绩将保持稳健增长,收入预计将达到1737-1778亿元人民币,同比增长约9%-11%,Non-IFRS净利润预计为609-630亿元人民币,同比增长约21%-23%。这一预期共识主要基于游戏业务国内外双增长、视频号广告商业化加速以及AI技术驱动的效率提升。目前市场对腾讯的盈利能力较为乐观。上季度回顾2024 年第四季度,腾讯收入同比增长 11% 至1724 亿元,Non-IFRS 净利润同比增长 30% 至553 亿元,延续了第三季度以来的复苏态势。游戏业务成为主要增长引擎,国际市场收入同比增长 15% 至160 亿元,国内游戏收入同比增长 23% 至332 亿元,得益于《王者荣耀》《和平精英》等头部产品的强劲表现。广告业务同比增长 17% 至350 亿元,视频号广告收入占比提升显著,受益于广告技术升级和内容生态完善。金融科技与企业服务收入同比增长 3% 至561 亿元,支付业务受宏观经济影响增速放缓,但企业微信、腾讯会议等 AI 升级产品推动增长。研发投入同比增长 21% 至198 亿元,主要用于混元大模型等 AI 技术的迭代和场景应用。本季度展望游戏业务:2025年第一季度国内游戏收入预计同比增长18%左右,主要得益于春节期间《王者荣耀》《和平精英》等头部游戏的DAU和流水创历史新高。《王者荣耀》1-2月流水同比增长约9000万美元;《和平精英》在春节期间DAU突破8000万,增长较为强劲;《三角洲行动》4月日活用户突破1200万玩家数持续攀升。海外游戏收入预计同比增长13%-17%,主要受益于递延收入确认和新游上线。美国关税对游戏出口影响有限(占比不足3%),但中东、拉美等新兴市场增长显著。政策预期方面,国内版号审批持续稳定,2025年1-4月每月均超120款,为腾讯游戏业务提供了长期支持。广告业务:视频号广告加载率预计提升至4%,AI技术优化广告投放效率(CTR提升约15%),广告收入预计同比增长20%左右至317亿元。视频号流量稳健增长,用户时长同比增长超80%,广告位的逐步开放为腾讯带来了更多变现机会。政策红利方面,国内消费提振政策(如”以旧换新”带动汽车、家电销售超1.3万亿元)将增加广告主投放意愿,尤其是电商、家电等行业的广告需求。但需关注广告投放速度与用户体验之间的平衡。金融科技与企业服务:收入侧略有加速,主要收入来自于支付业务。支付业务主要受益于线下消费复苏(央行数据显示非金融机构存款在1/2/3 月同比增长 24%/1%/3%),但增速可能放缓至3%-5%。云业务因受算力交付周期影响,预计Q1增速仅为5%。政策支持方面,国内”适度宽松货币政策”和”东数西算”2.0战略(预计智能算力需求达1037.3EFLOPS)预计将为腾讯支付业务及腾讯云提供长期增长机遇。分析师观点多家机构维持”买入”评级,目标价集中在590-676港元区间,预计腾讯估值仍有35%左右的上行空间。中金公司预测腾讯Q1季度经调整营业利润同比增长14%,经调整净利润同比增长20%,认为腾讯AI投入与利润增长的平衡策略有效,视频号广告加载率提升至4%和游戏国内外双增长将推动业绩超预期,维持”跑赢行业”评级,目标价600港元。国信证券预测腾讯Q1营收1765亿元,同比增长11%,Non-IFRS净利润609亿元,同比增长21%,主要基于游戏长青产品表现稳健、视频号广告技术升级和支付业务环比改善,维持”优大于市”评级。瑞银预计腾讯Q1收入同比增长10%至约1778亿元,Non-IFRS净利润同比增长22%至614亿元,强调AI驱动的广告效率提升和游戏业务韧性。总结腾讯目前核心业务增长逻辑清晰,但需关注广告加载率实际执行情况、云业务算力交付延迟及政策对国际业务的潜在影响。市场分析师观点以看多为主,认为腾讯在AI时代的布局将带来长期增长潜力,但需警惕短期风险因素。目前可关注腾讯Q1财报中视频号广告加载率和游戏流水增长是否达到预期;AI技术的研发投入和商业化进展,以及视频号电商生态闭环的构建情况。考虑到腾讯当前动态市盈率仅22倍左右(港股),显著低于历史平均水平和行业均值,估值修复空间较大。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":362604114415656,"gmtCreate":1729568235128,"gmtModify":1729575304434,"author":{"id":"4184318417731922","authorId":"4184318417731922","name":"Winner 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讲到选举,哈里斯优势是没有大的黑料,劣势是也无所作为,看不到她的能力在哪。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/362604114415656","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2057,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3480109468354605","authorId":"3480109468354605","name":"小火箭V","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1caafcae97fde6f32723b0d8dd1da4b8","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3480109468354605","authorIdStr":"3480109468354605"},"content":"能力在于检察官,川普很怕[开心]","text":"能力在于检察官,川普很怕[开心]","html":"能力在于检察官,川普很怕[开心]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":388663545348616,"gmtCreate":1735930362334,"gmtModify":1735939821071,"author":{"id":"4184318417731922","authorId":"4184318417731922","name":"Winner 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PUT$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d691f8d41fdd23280113a5c9eeebd1c","width":"324","height":"543"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/388663545348616","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":683,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":410204722397440,"gmtCreate":1741157363366,"gmtModify":1741157366547,"author":{"id":"4184318417731922","authorId":"4184318417731922","name":"Winner Wang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53876a54ff72a76795b15969329a2f65","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4184318417731922","authorIdStr":"4184318417731922"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"a股炒机器人概念的应该看看特斯拉,明显特斯拉比宇树好太多,你看看两家机器人关节的自由度,宇树你买回家除了当玩具表演,你说还能干什么?特斯拉买回家手指都能弹钢琴。 另外,和英伟达的对比,相较我觉得特斯拉潜力更大,是应用端的,再加上马斯克确实神人,干哪行都第一。特斯拉唯一问题是政治问题,作为消费者,我可能不支持谁的立场,但产品好用还是会买这家产品","listText":"a股炒机器人概念的应该看看特斯拉,明显特斯拉比宇树好太多,你看看两家机器人关节的自由度,宇树你买回家除了当玩具表演,你说还能干什么?特斯拉买回家手指都能弹钢琴。 另外,和英伟达的对比,相较我觉得特斯拉潜力更大,是应用端的,再加上马斯克确实神人,干哪行都第一。特斯拉唯一问题是政治问题,作为消费者,我可能不支持谁的立场,但产品好用还是会买这家产品","text":"a股炒机器人概念的应该看看特斯拉,明显特斯拉比宇树好太多,你看看两家机器人关节的自由度,宇树你买回家除了当玩具表演,你说还能干什么?特斯拉买回家手指都能弹钢琴。 另外,和英伟达的对比,相较我觉得特斯拉潜力更大,是应用端的,再加上马斯克确实神人,干哪行都第一。特斯拉唯一问题是政治问题,作为消费者,我可能不支持谁的立场,但产品好用还是会买这家产品","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/410204722397440","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":850,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":361521730011456,"gmtCreate":1729295578990,"gmtModify":1729300939436,"author":{"id":"4184318417731922","authorId":"4184318417731922","name":"Winner 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