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千祥云集xyq
2025-12-24
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
不可能一直没有更新 对于哈哈哈
千祥云集xyq
01-13 17:13
来12个月特斯拉股价将下跌9.1%。
闭眼买入的时代结束了!美股七巨头抱团策略失灵,华尔街喊话:2026年得“拆开来买”
千祥云集xyq
01-05
$壁仞科技(06082)$
继续输液继续捂。
千祥云集xyq
01-03
$壁仞科技(06082)$
不错的变革,大家持之以恒
千祥云集xyq
01-07
联合起来搞好一点,各自为政功亏一篑
千祥云集xyq
2025-12-27
$2倍做空TSLA ETF-Tradr(TSLQ)$
涨不停不停涨。
千祥云集xyq
2025-09-26
赶紧叫爸爸后雨刮
千祥云集xyq
2025-09-26
$黄金主连 2512(GCmain)$
跌破了跌跌不休
千祥云集xyq
2025-06-14
作为连接数字加密货币和现实货币的资产公司,其市场和叙事场景巨大,未来一定能够10倍 <br>
千祥云集xyq
01-09
所有的逻辑都是站不住的。
特斯拉:一家或将陷入衰退的成长型企业
千祥云集xyq
01-09
n能不能你举高高
千祥云集xyq
01-09
h😃🥩🥩🥩🥩
@马虎恶魔号:
$苹果(AAPL)$
我想跟大家聊一聊,就是苹果这两天不停的阴跌的这个事,因为苹果也是我的大仓,这两天我也没跑了,然后就被拍在了里面。 想跟大家聊聊,现在主流的呃几个观点,就是第一呢其实消费不行了,没办法提前消费,这个是主流的一个看法。 第2个看法是 钱都流出了,流出到了比较热门的这几个股票上面去,比如说英伟达,比如说美光。
$英伟达(NVDA)$
$美光科技(MU)$
最荒唐的还有一种看法,就是说 就是苹果不行了,没人买了,所以机构都在减持之类的,包括巴老爷也不当老板了。所以苹果一直在被减持。 站在一个持有苹果的角度上,我一个一个的去说。 首先第一,消费降级了,没人买了,这个其实我觉得确实有这种可能,但是这个非常容易破。就是只要你出廉价版,只要你用心的去做廉价版。或者说把新的产品线做得更好。就算消费降级了,还是有人买的。大家有没有听过一种叫奶头乐经济 当时韩国也出现了这种的尴尬的阶段,但是韩国这些人干什么呢?在家里打游戏。对吧,就算消费降级了,这种被人骂成电子xxx的这种东西依然是没有问题的。 第二钱都流出了,我认为这个是很现实的。它下跌了,那钱肯定流出了呀 但是如果真的遇到了问题,大家去看的是他是不是机构减持,要看它的交易量的,它交易量并没有,对不对?但是这种阴跌肯定是。但是如果说现在是情绪化的问题来说,我觉得这是没有问题的。 第3个,我觉得这简直是胡说八道。个人认为究其原因就是苹果之前涨得太快了,他现在估值其实超过了它所能承载的市值,所以要杀一杀他的估值 因为我拿苹果算时间比较长的
千祥云集xyq
01-08
那你看看哦哦黄花鱼
千祥云集xyq
01-02
$壁仞科技(06082)$
盛世华庭
千祥云集xyq
2025-12-30
$2倍做空TSLA ETF-Tradr(TSLQ)$
继继续奏乐,继续舞。
千祥云集xyq
2025-12-30
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
下来吧
千祥云集xyq
2025-12-25
$2倍做空TSLA ETF-Tradr(TSLQ)$
💪
千祥云集xyq
01-13 07:57
本届展会上释放自动驾驶领域的新动作。
千祥云集xyq
01-13 07:17
不错😌
@Leader:
$美光科技(MU)$
$博通(AVGO)$
$苹果(AAPL)$
$英伟达(NVDA)$
$国电电力(600795)$
新能源产业链开始布局 AI崛起,未来谁有能源谁有
金本位
,电力就是未来的钞票💵
算力
存储我们已经吃到了美光的红利,现在 开始布局电力板块,偏向防守稳健红利区域! 政策和地缘把能源从可以投变成了必须投,这个赛道的底就托住了:需求确定,供给紧,政策兜底,估值不贵! AI 与能源:
千祥云集xyq
01-12 08:11
好好聚聚
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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07:14","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"闭眼买入的时代结束了!美股七巨头抱团策略失灵,华尔街喊话:2026年得“拆开来买”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2602563738","media":"智通财经","summary":"汇编数据显示,七巨头2026年的盈利增幅预计约为18%,为2022年以来最慢增速,与标普500指数其他493家成分股13%的预期增幅相比,优势已十分微弱。该股自2022年底以来上涨了1165%,但在去年10月29日创下历史新高后已下跌11%。这一策略在2025年上半年令公司股价承压,截至8月初,股价累计下跌近20%。2025年10月下旬,Meta将当年资本支出预期上调至720亿美元,并预计2026年支出将“大幅增加”,消息一出,公司股价应声暴跌。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>近年来,许多投资者都奉行一套简单的策略来跑赢市场:重仓美国大型科技股。</p><p>这一策略曾在很长一段时间内为投资者带来丰厚回报,但在2025年却黯然失效。自2022年美联储开启加息周期以来,“七科技”中多数公司的表现首次落后于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数。尽管一项衡量“七巨头”表现的指数在2025年上涨25%,高于标普500指数的16%,但这一涨幅完全依赖<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>(GOOGL.US)和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>(NVDA.US)两家公司的强劲拉升。</p><p>许多华尔街专业人士预计,随着科技巨头盈利增速放缓,且市场对巨额人工智能(AI)投入回报的质疑增多,这一分化趋势将在2026年持续。从年初表现来看,他们的判断正在得到印证——七巨头指数仅上涨0.5%,而标普500指数涨幅达到1.8%。在这一背景下,对这一群体内部个股的精挑细选变得至关重要。</p><p>“当下的市场早已不是‘一招鲜吃遍天’的行情,”管理着1.4万亿美元资产的Natixis Investment Managers Solutions首席投资组合策略师Jack Janasiewicz表示,“如果只是无脑买入整个巨头组合,个股的亏损很可能会抵消掉其他股票的收益。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d645f0841cef8268bd8a8a54b76db078\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"665\" tg-height=\"619\"/></p><p>这轮持续三年的牛市由科技巨头引领,自2022年10月牛市开始以来,仅英伟达、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>(MSFT.US)和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>(AAPL.US)四家公司就贡献了标普500指数涨幅的三分之一以上。但随着市场资金开始流向标普500指数的其他成分股,投资者对科技巨头的热情正在降温。</p><p>由于大型科技公司盈利增速放缓,投资者不再满足于“AI带来暴富”的空头支票,而是期待真金白银的回报。汇编数据显示,七巨头2026年的盈利增幅预计约为18%,为2022年以来最慢增速,与标普500指数其他493家成分股13%的预期增幅相比,优势已十分微弱。</p><p>“我们已经看到企业盈利增长的范围正在扩大,且这一趋势将持续下去,”瑞银全球财富管理美国股票主管David Lefkowitz指出,“科技行业不再是市场唯一的主角。”</p><p>市场对科技巨头仍存一丝乐观,原因在于其估值已相对回落。当前,七巨头指数的预期市盈率为29倍,远低于本年代初40倍以上的高位。相比之下,标普500指数的预期市盈率为22倍,纳斯达克100指数为25倍。</p><p>以下是对七巨头2026年的前景展望:</p><h2 id=\"id_873576642\">英伟达</h2><p>这家占据主导地位的AI芯片制造商正面临竞争加剧以及对其最大客户支出可持续性的担忧所带来的压力。该股自2022年底以来上涨了1165%,但在去年10月29日创下历史新高后已下跌11%。</p><p>竞争对手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>(AMD.US)已斩获OpenAI和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>(ORCL.US)的数据中心芯片订单,而谷歌等英伟达的大客户也在加速部署自研定制芯片。尽管如此,得益于芯片供不应求的市场格局,英伟达的营收仍保持高速增长。</p><p>华尔街对英伟达依然持乐观态度,在覆盖该股的82位分析师中,有76位给予“买入”评级。数据显示,分析师对该股的平均目标价意味着未来12个月约有39%的上涨空间,为七巨头中最高。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6b571aeb48b082f8abd0f26d32bb0c45\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"520\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3395192958\">微软</h2><p>2025年是微软连续第二年跑输标普500指数。作为AI领域的“烧钱大户”,微软预计在截至2026年6月的财年里,资本支出将逼近1000亿美元。分析师平均预期,下一财年该公司资本支出将进一步攀升至1160亿美元。</p><p>数据中心的扩建推动微软云计算业务营收增速回升,但公司在说服客户为集成AI功能的软件付费方面,成效并不显著。Zacks Investment Management客户投资组合经理Brian Mulberry表示,投资者正期待这些巨额投入能够转化为实实在在的回报。</p><p>“我们看到,部分投资者正在寻找现金流管理能力更优质的企业,同时希望更清晰地看到AI业务的盈利前景,”Mulberry补充道。</p><h2 id=\"id_1591291515\">苹果</h2><p>在七巨头中,苹果对AI的布局最为保守。这一策略在2025年上半年令公司股价承压,截至8月初,股价累计下跌近20%。</p><p>但随后,苹果摇身一变成为“反AI概念股”,因无需承担高额AI投入的风险而受到投资者青睐,股价在2025年底前飙升34%。与此同时,iPhone的强劲销量也让投资者安心——苹果的核心产品需求依然旺盛。</p><p>对苹果而言,2026年股价上涨的关键在于加速业绩增长。尽管公司股价上周五收盘上涨,勉强避免创下1991年以来最长连跌纪录,但近期涨势已明显放缓。不过,市场预计苹果在截至2026年9月的财年里,营收增幅将达到9%,创下2021年以来的最快增速。当前苹果的预期市盈率为31倍,在七巨头中仅次于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>(TSLA.US),若想延续涨势,公司业绩必须拿出亮眼表现。</p><h2 id=\"id_1545434709\">谷歌</h2><p>一年前,市场还认为OpenAI在AI竞赛中处于领先地位,投资者担忧谷歌会被甩在身后。如今,谷歌已成为公认的“宠儿”,在AI领域多点开花,占据领先地位。</p><p>谷歌最新推出的Gemini AI模型收获一片好评,缓解了市场对其竞争不过OpenAI的担忧。同时,公司自研的TPU被视为未来营收增长的重要驱动力,甚至有望蚕食英伟达在AI半导体市场的主导份额。</p><p>2025年,谷歌股价累计上涨超65%,在七巨头中表现最佳。但这样的涨势还能持续多久?目前,公司市值已逼近4万亿美元,预期市盈率约为28倍,远高于五年均值20倍。分析师平均目标价显示,该股2026年涨幅预计仅为3.9%。</p><h2 id=\"id_3323959207\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a></h2><p>作为电商和云计算巨头,亚马逊(AMZN.US)在2025年成为七巨头中表现最差的公司,这已是其连续第七年垫底。但进入2026年初,亚马逊股价强势反弹,领跑巨头阵营。</p><p>市场对亚马逊的乐观情绪,主要源于其云计算业务AWS——该业务在公司最新财报中创下多年来最快增速。此前,市场担忧AWS落后于竞争对手,再加上公司为发展AI大举投入(包括利用机器人技术提升仓储运营效率),双重因素曾拖累股价。投资者预计,亚马逊的效率提升举措将很快见效,2026年或许会成为公司股价实现“从垫底到领跑”逆袭的一年。</p><p>“仓储自动化和更高效的物流配送将成为亚马逊的巨大增长点,”持有亚马逊股票的Prime Capital Financial投资组合经理Clayton Allison表示,“目前市场还未充分挖掘这一价值,但这让我想起了去年的谷歌——当时市场担忧它不敌OpenAI的竞争而对其冷落,随后股价却一飞冲天。”</p><h2 id=\"id_2405292327\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a></h2><p>在七巨头中,Meta(META.US)的遭遇最能体现投资者对巨额AI投入的质疑态度。该公司首席执行官扎克伯格为实现AI雄心,大举收购企业、招揽人才,其中包括斥资140亿美元投资AI公司Scale AI,同时聘请该公司首席执行官Alexandr Wang担任Meta的AI主管。</p><p>这一策略曾得到股东认可,但好景不长。2025年10月下旬,Meta将当年资本支出预期上调至720亿美元,并预计2026年支出将“大幅增加”,消息一出,公司股价应声暴跌。回顾2025年,Meta股价在8月创下历史新高时,年内涨幅曾达35%,但此后已回落17%。对Meta而言,2026年的关键任务,是向市场证明巨额投入正实实在在地推动利润增长。</p><h2 id=\"id_3391789521\">特斯拉</h2><p>2025年上半年,特斯拉股价在七巨头中垫底,但下半年形势逆转——随着首席执行官马斯克将战略重心从低迷的电动汽车销量转向自动驾驶汽车和机器人业务,公司股价飙升超40%。本轮涨势过后,特斯拉的预期市盈率达到惊人的200倍,在标普500指数成分股中,仅次于被收购标的华纳兄弟探索公司(WBD.US)。</p><p>经历两年营收停滞之后,市场预计特斯拉将在2026年重拾增长。数据显示,特斯拉2025年营收预计萎缩3%,而2026年营收增幅有望达到12%,2027年进一步攀升至18%。</p><p>即便如此,华尔街对特斯拉2026年的股价表现仍持悲观态度。数据显示,分析师平均目标价预示,未来12个月特斯拉股价将下跌9.1%。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>闭眼买入的时代结束了!美股七巨头抱团策略失灵,华尔街喊话:2026年得“拆开来买”</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n闭眼买入的时代结束了!美股七巨头抱团策略失灵,华尔街喊话:2026年得“拆开来买”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-12 07:14 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1391342.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>近年来,许多投资者都奉行一套简单的策略来跑赢市场:重仓美国大型科技股。这一策略曾在很长一段时间内为投资者带来丰厚回报,但在2025年却黯然失效。自2022年美联储开启加息周期以来,“七科技”中多数公司的表现首次落后于标普500指数。尽管一项衡量“七巨头”表现的指数在2025年上涨25%,高于标普500指数的16%,但这一涨幅完全依赖谷歌(GOOGL.US)和英伟达(NVDA.US)两家公司的强劲...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1391342.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50f0a252f951b7accc03d40bda92a3b2","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达","META":"Meta Platforms, Inc.","AAPL":"苹果","MSFT":"微软","GOOGL":"谷歌A","TSLA":"特斯拉","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1391342.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2602563738","content_text":"近年来,许多投资者都奉行一套简单的策略来跑赢市场:重仓美国大型科技股。这一策略曾在很长一段时间内为投资者带来丰厚回报,但在2025年却黯然失效。自2022年美联储开启加息周期以来,“七科技”中多数公司的表现首次落后于标普500指数。尽管一项衡量“七巨头”表现的指数在2025年上涨25%,高于标普500指数的16%,但这一涨幅完全依赖谷歌(GOOGL.US)和英伟达(NVDA.US)两家公司的强劲拉升。许多华尔街专业人士预计,随着科技巨头盈利增速放缓,且市场对巨额人工智能(AI)投入回报的质疑增多,这一分化趋势将在2026年持续。从年初表现来看,他们的判断正在得到印证——七巨头指数仅上涨0.5%,而标普500指数涨幅达到1.8%。在这一背景下,对这一群体内部个股的精挑细选变得至关重要。“当下的市场早已不是‘一招鲜吃遍天’的行情,”管理着1.4万亿美元资产的Natixis Investment Managers Solutions首席投资组合策略师Jack Janasiewicz表示,“如果只是无脑买入整个巨头组合,个股的亏损很可能会抵消掉其他股票的收益。”这轮持续三年的牛市由科技巨头引领,自2022年10月牛市开始以来,仅英伟达、谷歌、微软(MSFT.US)和苹果(AAPL.US)四家公司就贡献了标普500指数涨幅的三分之一以上。但随着市场资金开始流向标普500指数的其他成分股,投资者对科技巨头的热情正在降温。由于大型科技公司盈利增速放缓,投资者不再满足于“AI带来暴富”的空头支票,而是期待真金白银的回报。汇编数据显示,七巨头2026年的盈利增幅预计约为18%,为2022年以来最慢增速,与标普500指数其他493家成分股13%的预期增幅相比,优势已十分微弱。“我们已经看到企业盈利增长的范围正在扩大,且这一趋势将持续下去,”瑞银全球财富管理美国股票主管David Lefkowitz指出,“科技行业不再是市场唯一的主角。”市场对科技巨头仍存一丝乐观,原因在于其估值已相对回落。当前,七巨头指数的预期市盈率为29倍,远低于本年代初40倍以上的高位。相比之下,标普500指数的预期市盈率为22倍,纳斯达克100指数为25倍。以下是对七巨头2026年的前景展望:英伟达这家占据主导地位的AI芯片制造商正面临竞争加剧以及对其最大客户支出可持续性的担忧所带来的压力。该股自2022年底以来上涨了1165%,但在去年10月29日创下历史新高后已下跌11%。竞争对手AMD(AMD.US)已斩获OpenAI和甲骨文(ORCL.US)的数据中心芯片订单,而谷歌等英伟达的大客户也在加速部署自研定制芯片。尽管如此,得益于芯片供不应求的市场格局,英伟达的营收仍保持高速增长。华尔街对英伟达依然持乐观态度,在覆盖该股的82位分析师中,有76位给予“买入”评级。数据显示,分析师对该股的平均目标价意味着未来12个月约有39%的上涨空间,为七巨头中最高。微软2025年是微软连续第二年跑输标普500指数。作为AI领域的“烧钱大户”,微软预计在截至2026年6月的财年里,资本支出将逼近1000亿美元。分析师平均预期,下一财年该公司资本支出将进一步攀升至1160亿美元。数据中心的扩建推动微软云计算业务营收增速回升,但公司在说服客户为集成AI功能的软件付费方面,成效并不显著。Zacks Investment Management客户投资组合经理Brian Mulberry表示,投资者正期待这些巨额投入能够转化为实实在在的回报。“我们看到,部分投资者正在寻找现金流管理能力更优质的企业,同时希望更清晰地看到AI业务的盈利前景,”Mulberry补充道。苹果在七巨头中,苹果对AI的布局最为保守。这一策略在2025年上半年令公司股价承压,截至8月初,股价累计下跌近20%。但随后,苹果摇身一变成为“反AI概念股”,因无需承担高额AI投入的风险而受到投资者青睐,股价在2025年底前飙升34%。与此同时,iPhone的强劲销量也让投资者安心——苹果的核心产品需求依然旺盛。对苹果而言,2026年股价上涨的关键在于加速业绩增长。尽管公司股价上周五收盘上涨,勉强避免创下1991年以来最长连跌纪录,但近期涨势已明显放缓。不过,市场预计苹果在截至2026年9月的财年里,营收增幅将达到9%,创下2021年以来的最快增速。当前苹果的预期市盈率为31倍,在七巨头中仅次于特斯拉(TSLA.US),若想延续涨势,公司业绩必须拿出亮眼表现。谷歌一年前,市场还认为OpenAI在AI竞赛中处于领先地位,投资者担忧谷歌会被甩在身后。如今,谷歌已成为公认的“宠儿”,在AI领域多点开花,占据领先地位。谷歌最新推出的Gemini AI模型收获一片好评,缓解了市场对其竞争不过OpenAI的担忧。同时,公司自研的TPU被视为未来营收增长的重要驱动力,甚至有望蚕食英伟达在AI半导体市场的主导份额。2025年,谷歌股价累计上涨超65%,在七巨头中表现最佳。但这样的涨势还能持续多久?目前,公司市值已逼近4万亿美元,预期市盈率约为28倍,远高于五年均值20倍。分析师平均目标价显示,该股2026年涨幅预计仅为3.9%。亚马逊作为电商和云计算巨头,亚马逊(AMZN.US)在2025年成为七巨头中表现最差的公司,这已是其连续第七年垫底。但进入2026年初,亚马逊股价强势反弹,领跑巨头阵营。市场对亚马逊的乐观情绪,主要源于其云计算业务AWS——该业务在公司最新财报中创下多年来最快增速。此前,市场担忧AWS落后于竞争对手,再加上公司为发展AI大举投入(包括利用机器人技术提升仓储运营效率),双重因素曾拖累股价。投资者预计,亚马逊的效率提升举措将很快见效,2026年或许会成为公司股价实现“从垫底到领跑”逆袭的一年。“仓储自动化和更高效的物流配送将成为亚马逊的巨大增长点,”持有亚马逊股票的Prime Capital Financial投资组合经理Clayton Allison表示,“目前市场还未充分挖掘这一价值,但这让我想起了去年的谷歌——当时市场担忧它不敌OpenAI的竞争而对其冷落,随后股价却一飞冲天。”Meta在七巨头中,Meta(META.US)的遭遇最能体现投资者对巨额AI投入的质疑态度。该公司首席执行官扎克伯格为实现AI雄心,大举收购企业、招揽人才,其中包括斥资140亿美元投资AI公司Scale AI,同时聘请该公司首席执行官Alexandr Wang担任Meta的AI主管。这一策略曾得到股东认可,但好景不长。2025年10月下旬,Meta将当年资本支出预期上调至720亿美元,并预计2026年支出将“大幅增加”,消息一出,公司股价应声暴跌。回顾2025年,Meta股价在8月创下历史新高时,年内涨幅曾达35%,但此后已回落17%。对Meta而言,2026年的关键任务,是向市场证明巨额投入正实实在在地推动利润增长。特斯拉2025年上半年,特斯拉股价在七巨头中垫底,但下半年形势逆转——随着首席执行官马斯克将战略重心从低迷的电动汽车销量转向自动驾驶汽车和机器人业务,公司股价飙升超40%。本轮涨势过后,特斯拉的预期市盈率达到惊人的200倍,在标普500指数成分股中,仅次于被收购标的华纳兄弟探索公司(WBD.US)。经历两年营收停滞之后,市场预计特斯拉将在2026年重拾增长。数据显示,特斯拉2025年营收预计萎缩3%,而2026年营收增幅有望达到12%,2027年进一步攀升至18%。即便如此,华尔街对特斯拉2026年的股价表现仍持悲观态度。数据显示,分析师平均目标价预示,未来12个月特斯拉股价将下跌9.1%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":2,"NVDA":2,"GOOGL":2,"MSFT":2,"META":2,"AMZN":2,"AAPL":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":521148162941088,"gmtCreate":1768262224184,"gmtModify":1768262227806,"author":{"id":"4208673939477970","authorId":"4208673939477970","name":"千祥云集xyq","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4208673939477970","authorIdStr":"4208673939477970"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"本届展会上释放自动驾驶领域的新动作。","listText":"本届展会上释放自动驾驶领域的新动作。","text":"本届展会上释放自动驾驶领域的新动作。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/521148162941088","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":41,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":521138856686864,"gmtCreate":1768259873796,"gmtModify":1768259876372,"author":{"id":"4208673939477970","authorId":"4208673939477970","name":"千祥云集xyq","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4208673939477970","authorIdStr":"4208673939477970"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"不错😌","listText":"不错😌","text":"不错😌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/521138856686864","repostId":"520971877262528","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":520971877262528,"gmtCreate":1768219105446,"gmtModify":1768226105446,"author":{"id":"3461586073682313","authorId":"3461586073682313","name":"Leader","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/5c2573e1e23bea3da9040a94847c190b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3461586073682313","authorIdStr":"3461586073682313"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$美光科技(MU)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">$博通(AVGO)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600795\">$国电电力(600795)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 新能源产业链开始布局 AI崛起,未来谁有能源谁有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/J/showDialog/word_explain?id=1993222150055944192&word=金本位\">金本位</a>,电力就是未来的钞票💵 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/J/showDialog/word_explain?id=1993174734636212224&word=算力\">算力</a>存储我们已经吃到了美光的红利,现在 开始布局电力板块,偏向防守稳健红利区域! 政策和地缘把能源从可以投变成了必须投,这个赛道的底就托住了:需求确定,供给紧,政策兜底,估值不贵! AI 与能源:","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$美光科技(MU)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">$博通(AVGO)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600795\">$国电电力(600795)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 新能源产业链开始布局 AI崛起,未来谁有能源谁有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/J/showDialog/word_explain?id=1993222150055944192&word=金本位\">金本位</a>,电力就是未来的钞票💵 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/J/showDialog/word_explain?id=1993174734636212224&word=算力\">算力</a>存储我们已经吃到了美光的红利,现在 开始布局电力板块,偏向防守稳健红利区域! 政策和地缘把能源从可以投变成了必须投,这个赛道的底就托住了:需求确定,供给紧,政策兜底,估值不贵! AI 与能源:","text":"$美光科技(MU)$ $博通(AVGO)$ $苹果(AAPL)$ $英伟达(NVDA)$ $国电电力(600795)$ 新能源产业链开始布局 AI崛起,未来谁有能源谁有金本位,电力就是未来的钞票💵 算力存储我们已经吃到了美光的红利,现在 开始布局电力板块,偏向防守稳健红利区域! 政策和地缘把能源从可以投变成了必须投,这个赛道的底就托住了:需求确定,供给紧,政策兜底,估值不贵! AI 与能源:","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cfc0ee2f435980092b94bd1d1f9c29a","width":"1242","height":"2688"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64f7e4a34a54c3fabe3d8570021b42ed","width":"1920","height":"1080"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0106a0a104fe57a9152012b2aff11aa5","width":"1920","height":"1080"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/520971877262528","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":520828697945296,"gmtCreate":1768176700070,"gmtModify":1768176703542,"author":{"id":"4208673939477970","authorId":"4208673939477970","name":"千祥云集xyq","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4208673939477970","authorIdStr":"4208673939477970"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"好好聚聚","listText":"好好聚聚","text":"好好聚聚","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/520828697945296","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":60,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":520626531172720,"gmtCreate":1768127416228,"gmtModify":1768127419399,"author":{"id":"4208673939477970","authorId":"4208673939477970","name":"千祥云集xyq","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4208673939477970","authorIdStr":"4208673939477970"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"赚钱心理学,巴菲特","listText":"赚钱心理学,巴菲特","text":"赚钱心理学,巴菲特","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/520626531172720","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":499,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":520496971608568,"gmtCreate":1768049883664,"gmtModify":1768049885757,"author":{"id":"4208673939477970","authorId":"4208673939477970","name":"千祥云集xyq","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4208673939477970","authorIdStr":"4208673939477970"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"肯定是一切的基础。","listText":"肯定是一切的基础。","text":"肯定是一切的基础。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/520496971608568","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":75,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":520141038805208,"gmtCreate":1767961070406,"gmtModify":1767961072919,"author":{"id":"4208673939477970","authorId":"4208673939477970","name":"千祥云集xyq","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4208673939477970","authorIdStr":"4208673939477970"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"所有的逻辑都是站不住的。","listText":"所有的逻辑都是站不住的。","text":"所有的逻辑都是站不住的。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/520141038805208","repostId":"2601877535","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2601877535","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1767784565,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2601877535?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-07 19:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉:一家或将陷入衰退的成长型企业","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2601877535","media":"美股研究社","summary":"综上,储能业务虽是特斯拉目前唯一具备实际增长潜力的板块,但该业务正面临 “装机量增速放缓、单位营收持续下滑” 的双重压力。要知道,彼时特斯拉尚未遭遇如此严重的声誉危机与竞争压力。综合来看,特斯拉已不再是一家高速成长的企业,反而是正陷入衰退的泥潭。","content":"<html><body><article><p><strong>用户群体的疏远与核心人物风险</strong></p><p>我们不会深入探讨多头最看重的三大炒作概念 —— 完全自动驾驶(FSD)、人工智能与机器人技术。原因很简单,这三项业务至今均未产生实质性的财务收益,依旧停留在投机阶段。</p><p>即便未来其中一项或多项业务能够取得成功,也必须正视一个现实:这些领域的竞争都异常激烈,而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>在切入这些赛道时,已然因创始人的政治立场卷入争议,导致品牌声誉受损,暴露出显著的<strong>核心人物风险</strong>。近年来,市场上一直流传着 “过度追求政治正确,终将反噬企业经营” 的说法,而这一道理反过来同样成立。特斯拉因立场问题疏远了至少半数消费者,进而可能损害用户信任 —— 这对公司的发展而言,无疑是一剂毒药。</p><img src=\"\"/><p>【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdKBibR2JMaxUNVoEYIawaicLcrVAEs2bhwIEUP4FfvianI8UkwWsmGS8QGt9FUCfIVia1npfInK1SOWWQ/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg\"/><p><strong>储能业务:</strong></p><p><strong>装机量增长放缓,单位营收持续下滑</strong></p><p>接下来聚焦特斯拉的核心实体业务 —— 汽车制造与储能系统。在所有业务指标中,储能装机量(GWh)是特斯拉唯一能拿出手的增长数据。2025 年第四季度,公司储能装机量达到 14.2 吉瓦时的历史新高;全年装机量累计达 46.7 吉瓦时,展现出强劲的扩张态势。</p><p>但光鲜数据的背后,是<strong>同比增速的快速滑落</strong>:2025 年储能装机量同比增幅为 49%,远低于 2024 年的 114% 与 2023 年的 126%。市场预测,到 2029 年,这一增速将进一步放缓至 26%,对应装机量约 141.8 吉瓦时。</p><p>与装机量增速放缓相伴而来的,是<strong>单位装机量营收的持续走低</strong>。2020 至 2021 年,特斯拉每吉瓦时储能装机量能创造近 7 亿美元的营收;而到了 2025 年第二季度,这一数值已腰斩过半,降至 2.89 亿美元;第三季度进一步下滑至 2.76 亿美元。值得注意的是,过去五个季度里,储能业务的毛利率基本稳定在 25% 至 31% 的区间。</p><p>综上,储能业务虽是特斯拉目前唯一具备实际增长潜力的板块,但该业务正面临 “装机量增速放缓、单位营收持续下滑” 的双重压力。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdKBibR2JMaxUNVoEYIawaicLczbSMU66CbrBjDq7jpr5zsiclLE4DkRGuL9TVwK0r2tbvibNaKK4AzxHw/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg\"/><p><strong>汽车业务:</strong></p><p><strong>交付量下滑叠加售价走低,内外承压</strong></p><p>无论市场如何炒作新概念,汽车销售仍是特斯拉的核心支柱业务。已有大量报道指出,2025 年第四季度,特斯拉汽车交付量同比暴跌 16%;全年交付量同比下降 9%,创下公司史上最差的季度同比表现,同时也是连续第二个财年交付量下滑。</p><p>此外,根据分析师的测算,截至 2025 年第三季度,特斯拉汽车的过去十二个月(TTM)平均售价已<span>跌破</span> 4 万美元。</p><p>市场预测,到 2029 年,特斯拉汽车年交付量有望达到 300 万辆,较 2025 年的 160 万辆实现增长。但这一目标的可行性,分析师深表怀疑 —— 毕竟,特斯拉正面临日益激烈的市场竞争。即便我们姑且认可这一偏乐观的预测,其对应的 2029 年交付量同比增速也仅为 28%,与 2023 年之前的高速增长时代相去甚远。要知道,彼时特斯拉尚未遭遇如此严重的声誉危机与竞争压力。</p><p>从区域市场的表现中,我们更能直观感受到特斯拉的困境。2025 年 11 月,中国新能源汽车市场整体销量同比增长 21%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XIACY\">小米</a>等中国本土品牌的交付量更是实现翻倍,而特斯拉在华销量却陷入同比停滞。</p><p>放眼全球市场,2025 年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYDDY\">比亚迪</a>的纯电动汽车销量已大幅超越特斯拉。而在欧洲市场,马斯克的立场引发了消费者的强烈抵触:2025 年 12 月,特斯拉在瑞典、法国、西班牙、比利时、葡萄牙的新车注册量同比分别暴跌 71%、66%、44%、28% 和 13%。从欧洲主要市场的全年数据初步判断,特斯拉 2025 年的注册量同比降幅约为 25%,市场份额持续萎缩。</p><p>雪上加霜的是,受美国本土政策支持力度减弱等因素影响,2026 年全球新能源汽车销量的整体增速预计将显著放缓。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdKBibR2JMaxUNVoEYIawaicLciaWMQ0QPFPFmoNQtcVWichXhCuZB2x0BS879mNfIl6Lz8r5HIRlqLj6w/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg\"/><p><strong>估值泡沫:</strong></p><p><strong>人形机器人预期已被过度透支</strong></p><p>我们不妨暂且采信马斯克的说法 —— 预计到 2026 或 2027 年,特斯拉 Optimus 人形机器人的销量将突破 100 万台,单价或达 2.25 万美元,对应潜在营收约 225 亿美元。</p><p>但从下图的市场一致预期中可以看出,这部分潜在营收早已被<strong>完全计入当前估值</strong>。在覆盖特斯拉的 34 位分析师中,最乐观的预测认为,公司 2027 年的年化营收将较 2025 年增长 720 亿美元。由此可见,市场对特斯拉的预期已然达到了 “只能成功、不能失败” 的极端程度。</p><p>即便以这份极度乐观的 2027 年营收预期为基准,特斯拉当前对应的远期市盈率仍高达 147 倍。在之前的分析中,分析师曾从多个角度拆解特斯拉的估值,结论早已不言而喻:其估值水平早已脱离基本面,荒谬至极。而时至今日,这一结论依然成立。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/dR7EpbvovdKLTlW17KYicXbduwZsUSFEKA3QhDoZBDRLD4pI17USiafzA7ib7ZgicBniaIKocAFvdFCDFy7DSsRicKibw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&from=appmsg\"/><p>数据来源:营收预期(Seeking Alpha)</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdJ3W4gruZ6lz6pj1cuQvXYHzFTgv6zBDxN3hjm1PtXPLNKCakI3eyW9mPqibvjCvXwDia0vaM9Nht8w/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg\"/><p><strong>结语</strong></p><p>在竞争白热化的新能源汽车市场,特斯拉正面临交付量下滑与售价走低的双重压力;储能业务虽有增长,但增速放缓、单位营收下滑的隐忧日益凸显。人形机器人等新兴业务的潜在收益,早已被市场透支殆尽,当前估值完全建立在充满不确定性的预期之上。</p><p>更致命的是,创始人的政治立场引发的品牌声誉危机,以及由此带来的核心人物风险,正在持续损害公司的用户基础与市场竞争力。</p><p>综合来看,特斯拉已不再是一家高速成长的企业,反而是正陷入衰退的泥潭。对投资者而言,现在正是最后的离场时机。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/dR7EpbvovdJlQNwm5fnHWnfblqB1P5B3gLTjg6j6dT5IyOFclcldYqPQickKMUqicdaXvibXdEb4OibV97CAwGO6TQ/640?wx_fmt=other&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&tp=webp#imgIndex=5\"/><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/dR7EpbvovdKnkt8t5QpwjNQOKyGlZz4SFiacicdM3aP4hZVCfGia7HbIYBoDxz2gubPAgoXDXhfrcLIfT2eG92icfw/640?wx_fmt=other&from=appmsg&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&tp=webp#imgIndex=6\"/><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/dR7EpbvovdLt0fplojSTcIf4vTY1fP5f5VhIsL3QI5iaHIficMHKVzpaxPOM0yB24Zgs1PJlLHXFs5UXKRic0iaTxA/640?wx_fmt=gif&from=appmsg&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&tp=webp#imgIndex=7\"/></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉:一家或将陷入衰退的成长型企业\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-07 19:16 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260107192635a4a7912b&s=b><strong>美股研究社</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>用户群体的疏远与核心人物风险我们不会深入探讨多头最看重的三大炒作概念 —— 完全自动驾驶(FSD)、人工智能与机器人技术。原因很简单,这三项业务至今均未产生实质性的财务收益,依旧停留在投机阶段。即便未来其中一项或多项业务能够取得成功,也必须正视一个现实:这些领域的竞争都异常激烈,而特斯拉在切入这些赛道时,已然因创始人的政治立场卷入争议,导致品牌声誉受损,暴露出显著的核心人物风险。近年来,市场上一直...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260107192635a4a7912b&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","IE00B19Z8W00.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"A\" INC","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU2250418816.HKD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","TSYW.SI":"TESLA 3xLongSG261006","BK4604":"机器人概念","LU1267930730.SGD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金AS Acc SGD (CPF)","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","LU2750360641.GBP":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (GBPHDG) 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\"AMH2\" (AUDHDG) H2 INC","LU2023250330.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260107192635a4a7912b&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2601877535","content_text":"用户群体的疏远与核心人物风险我们不会深入探讨多头最看重的三大炒作概念 —— 完全自动驾驶(FSD)、人工智能与机器人技术。原因很简单,这三项业务至今均未产生实质性的财务收益,依旧停留在投机阶段。即便未来其中一项或多项业务能够取得成功,也必须正视一个现实:这些领域的竞争都异常激烈,而特斯拉在切入这些赛道时,已然因创始人的政治立场卷入争议,导致品牌声誉受损,暴露出显著的核心人物风险。近年来,市场上一直流传着 “过度追求政治正确,终将反噬企业经营” 的说法,而这一道理反过来同样成立。特斯拉因立场问题疏远了至少半数消费者,进而可能损害用户信任 —— 这对公司的发展而言,无疑是一剂毒药。【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】储能业务:装机量增长放缓,单位营收持续下滑接下来聚焦特斯拉的核心实体业务 —— 汽车制造与储能系统。在所有业务指标中,储能装机量(GWh)是特斯拉唯一能拿出手的增长数据。2025 年第四季度,公司储能装机量达到 14.2 吉瓦时的历史新高;全年装机量累计达 46.7 吉瓦时,展现出强劲的扩张态势。但光鲜数据的背后,是同比增速的快速滑落:2025 年储能装机量同比增幅为 49%,远低于 2024 年的 114% 与 2023 年的 126%。市场预测,到 2029 年,这一增速将进一步放缓至 26%,对应装机量约 141.8 吉瓦时。与装机量增速放缓相伴而来的,是单位装机量营收的持续走低。2020 至 2021 年,特斯拉每吉瓦时储能装机量能创造近 7 亿美元的营收;而到了 2025 年第二季度,这一数值已腰斩过半,降至 2.89 亿美元;第三季度进一步下滑至 2.76 亿美元。值得注意的是,过去五个季度里,储能业务的毛利率基本稳定在 25% 至 31% 的区间。综上,储能业务虽是特斯拉目前唯一具备实际增长潜力的板块,但该业务正面临 “装机量增速放缓、单位营收持续下滑” 的双重压力。汽车业务:交付量下滑叠加售价走低,内外承压无论市场如何炒作新概念,汽车销售仍是特斯拉的核心支柱业务。已有大量报道指出,2025 年第四季度,特斯拉汽车交付量同比暴跌 16%;全年交付量同比下降 9%,创下公司史上最差的季度同比表现,同时也是连续第二个财年交付量下滑。此外,根据分析师的测算,截至 2025 年第三季度,特斯拉汽车的过去十二个月(TTM)平均售价已跌破 4 万美元。市场预测,到 2029 年,特斯拉汽车年交付量有望达到 300 万辆,较 2025 年的 160 万辆实现增长。但这一目标的可行性,分析师深表怀疑 —— 毕竟,特斯拉正面临日益激烈的市场竞争。即便我们姑且认可这一偏乐观的预测,其对应的 2029 年交付量同比增速也仅为 28%,与 2023 年之前的高速增长时代相去甚远。要知道,彼时特斯拉尚未遭遇如此严重的声誉危机与竞争压力。从区域市场的表现中,我们更能直观感受到特斯拉的困境。2025 年 11 月,中国新能源汽车市场整体销量同比增长 21%,小米等中国本土品牌的交付量更是实现翻倍,而特斯拉在华销量却陷入同比停滞。放眼全球市场,2025 年比亚迪的纯电动汽车销量已大幅超越特斯拉。而在欧洲市场,马斯克的立场引发了消费者的强烈抵触:2025 年 12 月,特斯拉在瑞典、法国、西班牙、比利时、葡萄牙的新车注册量同比分别暴跌 71%、66%、44%、28% 和 13%。从欧洲主要市场的全年数据初步判断,特斯拉 2025 年的注册量同比降幅约为 25%,市场份额持续萎缩。雪上加霜的是,受美国本土政策支持力度减弱等因素影响,2026 年全球新能源汽车销量的整体增速预计将显著放缓。估值泡沫:人形机器人预期已被过度透支我们不妨暂且采信马斯克的说法 —— 预计到 2026 或 2027 年,特斯拉 Optimus 人形机器人的销量将突破 100 万台,单价或达 2.25 万美元,对应潜在营收约 225 亿美元。但从下图的市场一致预期中可以看出,这部分潜在营收早已被完全计入当前估值。在覆盖特斯拉的 34 位分析师中,最乐观的预测认为,公司 2027 年的年化营收将较 2025 年增长 720 亿美元。由此可见,市场对特斯拉的预期已然达到了 “只能成功、不能失败” 的极端程度。即便以这份极度乐观的 2027 年营收预期为基准,特斯拉当前对应的远期市盈率仍高达 147 倍。在之前的分析中,分析师曾从多个角度拆解特斯拉的估值,结论早已不言而喻:其估值水平早已脱离基本面,荒谬至极。而时至今日,这一结论依然成立。数据来源:营收预期(Seeking Alpha)结语在竞争白热化的新能源汽车市场,特斯拉正面临交付量下滑与售价走低的双重压力;储能业务虽有增长,但增速放缓、单位营收下滑的隐忧日益凸显。人形机器人等新兴业务的潜在收益,早已被市场透支殆尽,当前估值完全建立在充满不确定性的预期之上。更致命的是,创始人的政治立场引发的品牌声誉危机,以及由此带来的核心人物风险,正在持续损害公司的用户基础与市场竞争力。综合来看,特斯拉已不再是一家高速成长的企业,反而是正陷入衰退的泥潭。对投资者而言,现在正是最后的离场时机。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSYW.SI":0.6,"TSLA":1.98}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":68,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":519763972502256,"gmtCreate":1767916831661,"gmtModify":1767916833892,"author":{"id":"4208673939477970","authorId":"4208673939477970","name":"千祥云集xyq","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4208673939477970","authorIdStr":"4208673939477970"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"n能不能你举高高","listText":"n能不能你举高高","text":"n能不能你举高高","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/519763972502256","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":207,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":519960815419904,"gmtCreate":1767916770649,"gmtModify":1767916773039,"author":{"id":"4208673939477970","authorId":"4208673939477970","name":"千祥云集xyq","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4208673939477970","authorIdStr":"4208673939477970"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"h😃🥩🥩🥩🥩","listText":"h😃🥩🥩🥩🥩","text":"h😃🥩🥩🥩🥩","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/519960815419904","repostId":"519625886490840","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":519625886490840,"gmtCreate":1767883126371,"gmtModify":1767884766701,"author":{"id":"3458349567571181","authorId":"3458349567571181","name":"马虎恶魔号","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5309b4545d61bcba8ee06c42836bf26f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3458349567571181","authorIdStr":"3458349567571181"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$ </a> 我想跟大家聊一聊,就是苹果这两天不停的阴跌的这个事,因为苹果也是我的大仓,这两天我也没跑了,然后就被拍在了里面。 想跟大家聊聊,现在主流的呃几个观点,就是第一呢其实消费不行了,没办法提前消费,这个是主流的一个看法。 第2个看法是 钱都流出了,流出到了比较热门的这几个股票上面去,比如说英伟达,比如说美光。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$美光科技(MU)$ </a> 最荒唐的还有一种看法,就是说 就是苹果不行了,没人买了,所以机构都在减持之类的,包括巴老爷也不当老板了。所以苹果一直在被减持。 站在一个持有苹果的角度上,我一个一个的去说。 首先第一,消费降级了,没人买了,这个其实我觉得确实有这种可能,但是这个非常容易破。就是只要你出廉价版,只要你用心的去做廉价版。或者说把新的产品线做得更好。就算消费降级了,还是有人买的。大家有没有听过一种叫奶头乐经济 当时韩国也出现了这种的尴尬的阶段,但是韩国这些人干什么呢?在家里打游戏。对吧,就算消费降级了,这种被人骂成电子xxx的这种东西依然是没有问题的。 第二钱都流出了,我认为这个是很现实的。它下跌了,那钱肯定流出了呀 但是如果真的遇到了问题,大家去看的是他是不是机构减持,要看它的交易量的,它交易量并没有,对不对?但是这种阴跌肯定是。但是如果说现在是情绪化的问题来说,我觉得这是没有问题的。 第3个,我觉得这简直是胡说八道。个人认为究其原因就是苹果之前涨得太快了,他现在估值其实超过了它所能承载的市值,所以要杀一杀他的估值 因为我拿苹果算时间比较长的","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$ </a> 我想跟大家聊一聊,就是苹果这两天不停的阴跌的这个事,因为苹果也是我的大仓,这两天我也没跑了,然后就被拍在了里面。 想跟大家聊聊,现在主流的呃几个观点,就是第一呢其实消费不行了,没办法提前消费,这个是主流的一个看法。 第2个看法是 钱都流出了,流出到了比较热门的这几个股票上面去,比如说英伟达,比如说美光。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$美光科技(MU)$ </a> 最荒唐的还有一种看法,就是说 就是苹果不行了,没人买了,所以机构都在减持之类的,包括巴老爷也不当老板了。所以苹果一直在被减持。 站在一个持有苹果的角度上,我一个一个的去说。 首先第一,消费降级了,没人买了,这个其实我觉得确实有这种可能,但是这个非常容易破。就是只要你出廉价版,只要你用心的去做廉价版。或者说把新的产品线做得更好。就算消费降级了,还是有人买的。大家有没有听过一种叫奶头乐经济 当时韩国也出现了这种的尴尬的阶段,但是韩国这些人干什么呢?在家里打游戏。对吧,就算消费降级了,这种被人骂成电子xxx的这种东西依然是没有问题的。 第二钱都流出了,我认为这个是很现实的。它下跌了,那钱肯定流出了呀 但是如果真的遇到了问题,大家去看的是他是不是机构减持,要看它的交易量的,它交易量并没有,对不对?但是这种阴跌肯定是。但是如果说现在是情绪化的问题来说,我觉得这是没有问题的。 第3个,我觉得这简直是胡说八道。个人认为究其原因就是苹果之前涨得太快了,他现在估值其实超过了它所能承载的市值,所以要杀一杀他的估值 因为我拿苹果算时间比较长的","text":"$苹果(AAPL)$ 我想跟大家聊一聊,就是苹果这两天不停的阴跌的这个事,因为苹果也是我的大仓,这两天我也没跑了,然后就被拍在了里面。 想跟大家聊聊,现在主流的呃几个观点,就是第一呢其实消费不行了,没办法提前消费,这个是主流的一个看法。 第2个看法是 钱都流出了,流出到了比较热门的这几个股票上面去,比如说英伟达,比如说美光。$英伟达(NVDA)$ $美光科技(MU)$ 最荒唐的还有一种看法,就是说 就是苹果不行了,没人买了,所以机构都在减持之类的,包括巴老爷也不当老板了。所以苹果一直在被减持。 站在一个持有苹果的角度上,我一个一个的去说。 首先第一,消费降级了,没人买了,这个其实我觉得确实有这种可能,但是这个非常容易破。就是只要你出廉价版,只要你用心的去做廉价版。或者说把新的产品线做得更好。就算消费降级了,还是有人买的。大家有没有听过一种叫奶头乐经济 当时韩国也出现了这种的尴尬的阶段,但是韩国这些人干什么呢?在家里打游戏。对吧,就算消费降级了,这种被人骂成电子xxx的这种东西依然是没有问题的。 第二钱都流出了,我认为这个是很现实的。它下跌了,那钱肯定流出了呀 但是如果真的遇到了问题,大家去看的是他是不是机构减持,要看它的交易量的,它交易量并没有,对不对?但是这种阴跌肯定是。但是如果说现在是情绪化的问题来说,我觉得这是没有问题的。 第3个,我觉得这简直是胡说八道。个人认为究其原因就是苹果之前涨得太快了,他现在估值其实超过了它所能承载的市值,所以要杀一杀他的估值 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对于哈哈哈","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/514083297436864","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1157,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000202","authorId":"9000000000000202","name":"JaneWW","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14a2ff8c5e89941e17edca25f99480f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000202","authorIdStr":"9000000000000202"},"content":"TSLA最近动静不大,等等看财报怎么说?","text":"TSLA最近动静不大,等等看财报怎么说?","html":"TSLA最近动静不大,等等看财报怎么说?"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":521285261644664,"gmtCreate":1768295614216,"gmtModify":1768295617844,"author":{"id":"4208673939477970","authorId":"4208673939477970","name":"千祥云集xyq","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4208673939477970","authorIdStr":"4208673939477970"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"来12个月特斯拉股价将下跌9.1%。","listText":"来12个月特斯拉股价将下跌9.1%。","text":"来12个月特斯拉股价将下跌9.1%。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/521285261644664","repostId":"2602563738","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2602563738","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1768173296,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2602563738?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-12 07:14","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"闭眼买入的时代结束了!美股七巨头抱团策略失灵,华尔街喊话:2026年得“拆开来买”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2602563738","media":"智通财经","summary":"汇编数据显示,七巨头2026年的盈利增幅预计约为18%,为2022年以来最慢增速,与标普500指数其他493家成分股13%的预期增幅相比,优势已十分微弱。该股自2022年底以来上涨了1165%,但在去年10月29日创下历史新高后已下跌11%。这一策略在2025年上半年令公司股价承压,截至8月初,股价累计下跌近20%。2025年10月下旬,Meta将当年资本支出预期上调至720亿美元,并预计2026年支出将“大幅增加”,消息一出,公司股价应声暴跌。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>近年来,许多投资者都奉行一套简单的策略来跑赢市场:重仓美国大型科技股。</p><p>这一策略曾在很长一段时间内为投资者带来丰厚回报,但在2025年却黯然失效。自2022年美联储开启加息周期以来,“七科技”中多数公司的表现首次落后于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数。尽管一项衡量“七巨头”表现的指数在2025年上涨25%,高于标普500指数的16%,但这一涨幅完全依赖<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>(GOOGL.US)和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>(NVDA.US)两家公司的强劲拉升。</p><p>许多华尔街专业人士预计,随着科技巨头盈利增速放缓,且市场对巨额人工智能(AI)投入回报的质疑增多,这一分化趋势将在2026年持续。从年初表现来看,他们的判断正在得到印证——七巨头指数仅上涨0.5%,而标普500指数涨幅达到1.8%。在这一背景下,对这一群体内部个股的精挑细选变得至关重要。</p><p>“当下的市场早已不是‘一招鲜吃遍天’的行情,”管理着1.4万亿美元资产的Natixis Investment Managers Solutions首席投资组合策略师Jack Janasiewicz表示,“如果只是无脑买入整个巨头组合,个股的亏损很可能会抵消掉其他股票的收益。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d645f0841cef8268bd8a8a54b76db078\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"665\" tg-height=\"619\"/></p><p>这轮持续三年的牛市由科技巨头引领,自2022年10月牛市开始以来,仅英伟达、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>(MSFT.US)和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>(AAPL.US)四家公司就贡献了标普500指数涨幅的三分之一以上。但随着市场资金开始流向标普500指数的其他成分股,投资者对科技巨头的热情正在降温。</p><p>由于大型科技公司盈利增速放缓,投资者不再满足于“AI带来暴富”的空头支票,而是期待真金白银的回报。汇编数据显示,七巨头2026年的盈利增幅预计约为18%,为2022年以来最慢增速,与标普500指数其他493家成分股13%的预期增幅相比,优势已十分微弱。</p><p>“我们已经看到企业盈利增长的范围正在扩大,且这一趋势将持续下去,”瑞银全球财富管理美国股票主管David Lefkowitz指出,“科技行业不再是市场唯一的主角。”</p><p>市场对科技巨头仍存一丝乐观,原因在于其估值已相对回落。当前,七巨头指数的预期市盈率为29倍,远低于本年代初40倍以上的高位。相比之下,标普500指数的预期市盈率为22倍,纳斯达克100指数为25倍。</p><p>以下是对七巨头2026年的前景展望:</p><h2 id=\"id_873576642\">英伟达</h2><p>这家占据主导地位的AI芯片制造商正面临竞争加剧以及对其最大客户支出可持续性的担忧所带来的压力。该股自2022年底以来上涨了1165%,但在去年10月29日创下历史新高后已下跌11%。</p><p>竞争对手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>(AMD.US)已斩获OpenAI和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>(ORCL.US)的数据中心芯片订单,而谷歌等英伟达的大客户也在加速部署自研定制芯片。尽管如此,得益于芯片供不应求的市场格局,英伟达的营收仍保持高速增长。</p><p>华尔街对英伟达依然持乐观态度,在覆盖该股的82位分析师中,有76位给予“买入”评级。数据显示,分析师对该股的平均目标价意味着未来12个月约有39%的上涨空间,为七巨头中最高。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6b571aeb48b082f8abd0f26d32bb0c45\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"520\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3395192958\">微软</h2><p>2025年是微软连续第二年跑输标普500指数。作为AI领域的“烧钱大户”,微软预计在截至2026年6月的财年里,资本支出将逼近1000亿美元。分析师平均预期,下一财年该公司资本支出将进一步攀升至1160亿美元。</p><p>数据中心的扩建推动微软云计算业务营收增速回升,但公司在说服客户为集成AI功能的软件付费方面,成效并不显著。Zacks Investment Management客户投资组合经理Brian Mulberry表示,投资者正期待这些巨额投入能够转化为实实在在的回报。</p><p>“我们看到,部分投资者正在寻找现金流管理能力更优质的企业,同时希望更清晰地看到AI业务的盈利前景,”Mulberry补充道。</p><h2 id=\"id_1591291515\">苹果</h2><p>在七巨头中,苹果对AI的布局最为保守。这一策略在2025年上半年令公司股价承压,截至8月初,股价累计下跌近20%。</p><p>但随后,苹果摇身一变成为“反AI概念股”,因无需承担高额AI投入的风险而受到投资者青睐,股价在2025年底前飙升34%。与此同时,iPhone的强劲销量也让投资者安心——苹果的核心产品需求依然旺盛。</p><p>对苹果而言,2026年股价上涨的关键在于加速业绩增长。尽管公司股价上周五收盘上涨,勉强避免创下1991年以来最长连跌纪录,但近期涨势已明显放缓。不过,市场预计苹果在截至2026年9月的财年里,营收增幅将达到9%,创下2021年以来的最快增速。当前苹果的预期市盈率为31倍,在七巨头中仅次于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>(TSLA.US),若想延续涨势,公司业绩必须拿出亮眼表现。</p><h2 id=\"id_1545434709\">谷歌</h2><p>一年前,市场还认为OpenAI在AI竞赛中处于领先地位,投资者担忧谷歌会被甩在身后。如今,谷歌已成为公认的“宠儿”,在AI领域多点开花,占据领先地位。</p><p>谷歌最新推出的Gemini AI模型收获一片好评,缓解了市场对其竞争不过OpenAI的担忧。同时,公司自研的TPU被视为未来营收增长的重要驱动力,甚至有望蚕食英伟达在AI半导体市场的主导份额。</p><p>2025年,谷歌股价累计上涨超65%,在七巨头中表现最佳。但这样的涨势还能持续多久?目前,公司市值已逼近4万亿美元,预期市盈率约为28倍,远高于五年均值20倍。分析师平均目标价显示,该股2026年涨幅预计仅为3.9%。</p><h2 id=\"id_3323959207\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a></h2><p>作为电商和云计算巨头,亚马逊(AMZN.US)在2025年成为七巨头中表现最差的公司,这已是其连续第七年垫底。但进入2026年初,亚马逊股价强势反弹,领跑巨头阵营。</p><p>市场对亚马逊的乐观情绪,主要源于其云计算业务AWS——该业务在公司最新财报中创下多年来最快增速。此前,市场担忧AWS落后于竞争对手,再加上公司为发展AI大举投入(包括利用机器人技术提升仓储运营效率),双重因素曾拖累股价。投资者预计,亚马逊的效率提升举措将很快见效,2026年或许会成为公司股价实现“从垫底到领跑”逆袭的一年。</p><p>“仓储自动化和更高效的物流配送将成为亚马逊的巨大增长点,”持有亚马逊股票的Prime Capital Financial投资组合经理Clayton Allison表示,“目前市场还未充分挖掘这一价值,但这让我想起了去年的谷歌——当时市场担忧它不敌OpenAI的竞争而对其冷落,随后股价却一飞冲天。”</p><h2 id=\"id_2405292327\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a></h2><p>在七巨头中,Meta(META.US)的遭遇最能体现投资者对巨额AI投入的质疑态度。该公司首席执行官扎克伯格为实现AI雄心,大举收购企业、招揽人才,其中包括斥资140亿美元投资AI公司Scale AI,同时聘请该公司首席执行官Alexandr Wang担任Meta的AI主管。</p><p>这一策略曾得到股东认可,但好景不长。2025年10月下旬,Meta将当年资本支出预期上调至720亿美元,并预计2026年支出将“大幅增加”,消息一出,公司股价应声暴跌。回顾2025年,Meta股价在8月创下历史新高时,年内涨幅曾达35%,但此后已回落17%。对Meta而言,2026年的关键任务,是向市场证明巨额投入正实实在在地推动利润增长。</p><h2 id=\"id_3391789521\">特斯拉</h2><p>2025年上半年,特斯拉股价在七巨头中垫底,但下半年形势逆转——随着首席执行官马斯克将战略重心从低迷的电动汽车销量转向自动驾驶汽车和机器人业务,公司股价飙升超40%。本轮涨势过后,特斯拉的预期市盈率达到惊人的200倍,在标普500指数成分股中,仅次于被收购标的华纳兄弟探索公司(WBD.US)。</p><p>经历两年营收停滞之后,市场预计特斯拉将在2026年重拾增长。数据显示,特斯拉2025年营收预计萎缩3%,而2026年营收增幅有望达到12%,2027年进一步攀升至18%。</p><p>即便如此,华尔街对特斯拉2026年的股价表现仍持悲观态度。数据显示,分析师平均目标价预示,未来12个月特斯拉股价将下跌9.1%。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>闭眼买入的时代结束了!美股七巨头抱团策略失灵,华尔街喊话:2026年得“拆开来买”</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n闭眼买入的时代结束了!美股七巨头抱团策略失灵,华尔街喊话:2026年得“拆开来买”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-12 07:14 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1391342.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>近年来,许多投资者都奉行一套简单的策略来跑赢市场:重仓美国大型科技股。这一策略曾在很长一段时间内为投资者带来丰厚回报,但在2025年却黯然失效。自2022年美联储开启加息周期以来,“七科技”中多数公司的表现首次落后于标普500指数。尽管一项衡量“七巨头”表现的指数在2025年上涨25%,高于标普500指数的16%,但这一涨幅完全依赖谷歌(GOOGL.US)和英伟达(NVDA.US)两家公司的强劲...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1391342.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50f0a252f951b7accc03d40bda92a3b2","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达","META":"Meta Platforms, Inc.","AAPL":"苹果","MSFT":"微软","GOOGL":"谷歌A","TSLA":"特斯拉","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1391342.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2602563738","content_text":"近年来,许多投资者都奉行一套简单的策略来跑赢市场:重仓美国大型科技股。这一策略曾在很长一段时间内为投资者带来丰厚回报,但在2025年却黯然失效。自2022年美联储开启加息周期以来,“七科技”中多数公司的表现首次落后于标普500指数。尽管一项衡量“七巨头”表现的指数在2025年上涨25%,高于标普500指数的16%,但这一涨幅完全依赖谷歌(GOOGL.US)和英伟达(NVDA.US)两家公司的强劲拉升。许多华尔街专业人士预计,随着科技巨头盈利增速放缓,且市场对巨额人工智能(AI)投入回报的质疑增多,这一分化趋势将在2026年持续。从年初表现来看,他们的判断正在得到印证——七巨头指数仅上涨0.5%,而标普500指数涨幅达到1.8%。在这一背景下,对这一群体内部个股的精挑细选变得至关重要。“当下的市场早已不是‘一招鲜吃遍天’的行情,”管理着1.4万亿美元资产的Natixis Investment Managers Solutions首席投资组合策略师Jack Janasiewicz表示,“如果只是无脑买入整个巨头组合,个股的亏损很可能会抵消掉其他股票的收益。”这轮持续三年的牛市由科技巨头引领,自2022年10月牛市开始以来,仅英伟达、谷歌、微软(MSFT.US)和苹果(AAPL.US)四家公司就贡献了标普500指数涨幅的三分之一以上。但随着市场资金开始流向标普500指数的其他成分股,投资者对科技巨头的热情正在降温。由于大型科技公司盈利增速放缓,投资者不再满足于“AI带来暴富”的空头支票,而是期待真金白银的回报。汇编数据显示,七巨头2026年的盈利增幅预计约为18%,为2022年以来最慢增速,与标普500指数其他493家成分股13%的预期增幅相比,优势已十分微弱。“我们已经看到企业盈利增长的范围正在扩大,且这一趋势将持续下去,”瑞银全球财富管理美国股票主管David Lefkowitz指出,“科技行业不再是市场唯一的主角。”市场对科技巨头仍存一丝乐观,原因在于其估值已相对回落。当前,七巨头指数的预期市盈率为29倍,远低于本年代初40倍以上的高位。相比之下,标普500指数的预期市盈率为22倍,纳斯达克100指数为25倍。以下是对七巨头2026年的前景展望:英伟达这家占据主导地位的AI芯片制造商正面临竞争加剧以及对其最大客户支出可持续性的担忧所带来的压力。该股自2022年底以来上涨了1165%,但在去年10月29日创下历史新高后已下跌11%。竞争对手AMD(AMD.US)已斩获OpenAI和甲骨文(ORCL.US)的数据中心芯片订单,而谷歌等英伟达的大客户也在加速部署自研定制芯片。尽管如此,得益于芯片供不应求的市场格局,英伟达的营收仍保持高速增长。华尔街对英伟达依然持乐观态度,在覆盖该股的82位分析师中,有76位给予“买入”评级。数据显示,分析师对该股的平均目标价意味着未来12个月约有39%的上涨空间,为七巨头中最高。微软2025年是微软连续第二年跑输标普500指数。作为AI领域的“烧钱大户”,微软预计在截至2026年6月的财年里,资本支出将逼近1000亿美元。分析师平均预期,下一财年该公司资本支出将进一步攀升至1160亿美元。数据中心的扩建推动微软云计算业务营收增速回升,但公司在说服客户为集成AI功能的软件付费方面,成效并不显著。Zacks Investment Management客户投资组合经理Brian Mulberry表示,投资者正期待这些巨额投入能够转化为实实在在的回报。“我们看到,部分投资者正在寻找现金流管理能力更优质的企业,同时希望更清晰地看到AI业务的盈利前景,”Mulberry补充道。苹果在七巨头中,苹果对AI的布局最为保守。这一策略在2025年上半年令公司股价承压,截至8月初,股价累计下跌近20%。但随后,苹果摇身一变成为“反AI概念股”,因无需承担高额AI投入的风险而受到投资者青睐,股价在2025年底前飙升34%。与此同时,iPhone的强劲销量也让投资者安心——苹果的核心产品需求依然旺盛。对苹果而言,2026年股价上涨的关键在于加速业绩增长。尽管公司股价上周五收盘上涨,勉强避免创下1991年以来最长连跌纪录,但近期涨势已明显放缓。不过,市场预计苹果在截至2026年9月的财年里,营收增幅将达到9%,创下2021年以来的最快增速。当前苹果的预期市盈率为31倍,在七巨头中仅次于特斯拉(TSLA.US),若想延续涨势,公司业绩必须拿出亮眼表现。谷歌一年前,市场还认为OpenAI在AI竞赛中处于领先地位,投资者担忧谷歌会被甩在身后。如今,谷歌已成为公认的“宠儿”,在AI领域多点开花,占据领先地位。谷歌最新推出的Gemini AI模型收获一片好评,缓解了市场对其竞争不过OpenAI的担忧。同时,公司自研的TPU被视为未来营收增长的重要驱动力,甚至有望蚕食英伟达在AI半导体市场的主导份额。2025年,谷歌股价累计上涨超65%,在七巨头中表现最佳。但这样的涨势还能持续多久?目前,公司市值已逼近4万亿美元,预期市盈率约为28倍,远高于五年均值20倍。分析师平均目标价显示,该股2026年涨幅预计仅为3.9%。亚马逊作为电商和云计算巨头,亚马逊(AMZN.US)在2025年成为七巨头中表现最差的公司,这已是其连续第七年垫底。但进入2026年初,亚马逊股价强势反弹,领跑巨头阵营。市场对亚马逊的乐观情绪,主要源于其云计算业务AWS——该业务在公司最新财报中创下多年来最快增速。此前,市场担忧AWS落后于竞争对手,再加上公司为发展AI大举投入(包括利用机器人技术提升仓储运营效率),双重因素曾拖累股价。投资者预计,亚马逊的效率提升举措将很快见效,2026年或许会成为公司股价实现“从垫底到领跑”逆袭的一年。“仓储自动化和更高效的物流配送将成为亚马逊的巨大增长点,”持有亚马逊股票的Prime Capital Financial投资组合经理Clayton Allison表示,“目前市场还未充分挖掘这一价值,但这让我想起了去年的谷歌——当时市场担忧它不敌OpenAI的竞争而对其冷落,随后股价却一飞冲天。”Meta在七巨头中,Meta(META.US)的遭遇最能体现投资者对巨额AI投入的质疑态度。该公司首席执行官扎克伯格为实现AI雄心,大举收购企业、招揽人才,其中包括斥资140亿美元投资AI公司Scale AI,同时聘请该公司首席执行官Alexandr Wang担任Meta的AI主管。这一策略曾得到股东认可,但好景不长。2025年10月下旬,Meta将当年资本支出预期上调至720亿美元,并预计2026年支出将“大幅增加”,消息一出,公司股价应声暴跌。回顾2025年,Meta股价在8月创下历史新高时,年内涨幅曾达35%,但此后已回落17%。对Meta而言,2026年的关键任务,是向市场证明巨额投入正实实在在地推动利润增长。特斯拉2025年上半年,特斯拉股价在七巨头中垫底,但下半年形势逆转——随着首席执行官马斯克将战略重心从低迷的电动汽车销量转向自动驾驶汽车和机器人业务,公司股价飙升超40%。本轮涨势过后,特斯拉的预期市盈率达到惊人的200倍,在标普500指数成分股中,仅次于被收购标的华纳兄弟探索公司(WBD.US)。经历两年营收停滞之后,市场预计特斯拉将在2026年重拾增长。数据显示,特斯拉2025年营收预计萎缩3%,而2026年营收增幅有望达到12%,2027年进一步攀升至18%。即便如此,华尔街对特斯拉2026年的股价表现仍持悲观态度。数据显示,分析师平均目标价预示,未来12个月特斯拉股价将下跌9.1%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":2,"NVDA":2,"GOOGL":2,"MSFT":2,"META":2,"AMZN":2,"AAPL":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":518519284663104,"gmtCreate":1767620920159,"gmtModify":1767620922128,"author":{"id":"4208673939477970","authorId":"4208673939477970","name":"千祥云集xyq","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4208673939477970","authorIdStr":"4208673939477970"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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<br>","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/445973074850552","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1499,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":520141038805208,"gmtCreate":1767961070406,"gmtModify":1767961072919,"author":{"id":"4208673939477970","authorId":"4208673939477970","name":"千祥云集xyq","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4208673939477970","authorIdStr":"4208673939477970"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"所有的逻辑都是站不住的。","listText":"所有的逻辑都是站不住的。","text":"所有的逻辑都是站不住的。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/520141038805208","repostId":"2601877535","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2601877535","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1767784565,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2601877535?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-07 19:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉:一家或将陷入衰退的成长型企业","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2601877535","media":"美股研究社","summary":"综上,储能业务虽是特斯拉目前唯一具备实际增长潜力的板块,但该业务正面临 “装机量增速放缓、单位营收持续下滑” 的双重压力。要知道,彼时特斯拉尚未遭遇如此严重的声誉危机与竞争压力。综合来看,特斯拉已不再是一家高速成长的企业,反而是正陷入衰退的泥潭。","content":"<html><body><article><p><strong>用户群体的疏远与核心人物风险</strong></p><p>我们不会深入探讨多头最看重的三大炒作概念 —— 完全自动驾驶(FSD)、人工智能与机器人技术。原因很简单,这三项业务至今均未产生实质性的财务收益,依旧停留在投机阶段。</p><p>即便未来其中一项或多项业务能够取得成功,也必须正视一个现实:这些领域的竞争都异常激烈,而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>在切入这些赛道时,已然因创始人的政治立场卷入争议,导致品牌声誉受损,暴露出显著的<strong>核心人物风险</strong>。近年来,市场上一直流传着 “过度追求政治正确,终将反噬企业经营” 的说法,而这一道理反过来同样成立。特斯拉因立场问题疏远了至少半数消费者,进而可能损害用户信任 —— 这对公司的发展而言,无疑是一剂毒药。</p><img src=\"\"/><p>【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdKBibR2JMaxUNVoEYIawaicLcrVAEs2bhwIEUP4FfvianI8UkwWsmGS8QGt9FUCfIVia1npfInK1SOWWQ/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg\"/><p><strong>储能业务:</strong></p><p><strong>装机量增长放缓,单位营收持续下滑</strong></p><p>接下来聚焦特斯拉的核心实体业务 —— 汽车制造与储能系统。在所有业务指标中,储能装机量(GWh)是特斯拉唯一能拿出手的增长数据。2025 年第四季度,公司储能装机量达到 14.2 吉瓦时的历史新高;全年装机量累计达 46.7 吉瓦时,展现出强劲的扩张态势。</p><p>但光鲜数据的背后,是<strong>同比增速的快速滑落</strong>:2025 年储能装机量同比增幅为 49%,远低于 2024 年的 114% 与 2023 年的 126%。市场预测,到 2029 年,这一增速将进一步放缓至 26%,对应装机量约 141.8 吉瓦时。</p><p>与装机量增速放缓相伴而来的,是<strong>单位装机量营收的持续走低</strong>。2020 至 2021 年,特斯拉每吉瓦时储能装机量能创造近 7 亿美元的营收;而到了 2025 年第二季度,这一数值已腰斩过半,降至 2.89 亿美元;第三季度进一步下滑至 2.76 亿美元。值得注意的是,过去五个季度里,储能业务的毛利率基本稳定在 25% 至 31% 的区间。</p><p>综上,储能业务虽是特斯拉目前唯一具备实际增长潜力的板块,但该业务正面临 “装机量增速放缓、单位营收持续下滑” 的双重压力。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdKBibR2JMaxUNVoEYIawaicLczbSMU66CbrBjDq7jpr5zsiclLE4DkRGuL9TVwK0r2tbvibNaKK4AzxHw/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg\"/><p><strong>汽车业务:</strong></p><p><strong>交付量下滑叠加售价走低,内外承压</strong></p><p>无论市场如何炒作新概念,汽车销售仍是特斯拉的核心支柱业务。已有大量报道指出,2025 年第四季度,特斯拉汽车交付量同比暴跌 16%;全年交付量同比下降 9%,创下公司史上最差的季度同比表现,同时也是连续第二个财年交付量下滑。</p><p>此外,根据分析师的测算,截至 2025 年第三季度,特斯拉汽车的过去十二个月(TTM)平均售价已<span>跌破</span> 4 万美元。</p><p>市场预测,到 2029 年,特斯拉汽车年交付量有望达到 300 万辆,较 2025 年的 160 万辆实现增长。但这一目标的可行性,分析师深表怀疑 —— 毕竟,特斯拉正面临日益激烈的市场竞争。即便我们姑且认可这一偏乐观的预测,其对应的 2029 年交付量同比增速也仅为 28%,与 2023 年之前的高速增长时代相去甚远。要知道,彼时特斯拉尚未遭遇如此严重的声誉危机与竞争压力。</p><p>从区域市场的表现中,我们更能直观感受到特斯拉的困境。2025 年 11 月,中国新能源汽车市场整体销量同比增长 21%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XIACY\">小米</a>等中国本土品牌的交付量更是实现翻倍,而特斯拉在华销量却陷入同比停滞。</p><p>放眼全球市场,2025 年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYDDY\">比亚迪</a>的纯电动汽车销量已大幅超越特斯拉。而在欧洲市场,马斯克的立场引发了消费者的强烈抵触:2025 年 12 月,特斯拉在瑞典、法国、西班牙、比利时、葡萄牙的新车注册量同比分别暴跌 71%、66%、44%、28% 和 13%。从欧洲主要市场的全年数据初步判断,特斯拉 2025 年的注册量同比降幅约为 25%,市场份额持续萎缩。</p><p>雪上加霜的是,受美国本土政策支持力度减弱等因素影响,2026 年全球新能源汽车销量的整体增速预计将显著放缓。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdKBibR2JMaxUNVoEYIawaicLciaWMQ0QPFPFmoNQtcVWichXhCuZB2x0BS879mNfIl6Lz8r5HIRlqLj6w/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg\"/><p><strong>估值泡沫:</strong></p><p><strong>人形机器人预期已被过度透支</strong></p><p>我们不妨暂且采信马斯克的说法 —— 预计到 2026 或 2027 年,特斯拉 Optimus 人形机器人的销量将突破 100 万台,单价或达 2.25 万美元,对应潜在营收约 225 亿美元。</p><p>但从下图的市场一致预期中可以看出,这部分潜在营收早已被<strong>完全计入当前估值</strong>。在覆盖特斯拉的 34 位分析师中,最乐观的预测认为,公司 2027 年的年化营收将较 2025 年增长 720 亿美元。由此可见,市场对特斯拉的预期已然达到了 “只能成功、不能失败” 的极端程度。</p><p>即便以这份极度乐观的 2027 年营收预期为基准,特斯拉当前对应的远期市盈率仍高达 147 倍。在之前的分析中,分析师曾从多个角度拆解特斯拉的估值,结论早已不言而喻:其估值水平早已脱离基本面,荒谬至极。而时至今日,这一结论依然成立。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/dR7EpbvovdKLTlW17KYicXbduwZsUSFEKA3QhDoZBDRLD4pI17USiafzA7ib7ZgicBniaIKocAFvdFCDFy7DSsRicKibw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&from=appmsg\"/><p>数据来源:营收预期(Seeking Alpha)</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdJ3W4gruZ6lz6pj1cuQvXYHzFTgv6zBDxN3hjm1PtXPLNKCakI3eyW9mPqibvjCvXwDia0vaM9Nht8w/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg\"/><p><strong>结语</strong></p><p>在竞争白热化的新能源汽车市场,特斯拉正面临交付量下滑与售价走低的双重压力;储能业务虽有增长,但增速放缓、单位营收下滑的隐忧日益凸显。人形机器人等新兴业务的潜在收益,早已被市场透支殆尽,当前估值完全建立在充满不确定性的预期之上。</p><p>更致命的是,创始人的政治立场引发的品牌声誉危机,以及由此带来的核心人物风险,正在持续损害公司的用户基础与市场竞争力。</p><p>综合来看,特斯拉已不再是一家高速成长的企业,反而是正陷入衰退的泥潭。对投资者而言,现在正是最后的离场时机。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/dR7EpbvovdJlQNwm5fnHWnfblqB1P5B3gLTjg6j6dT5IyOFclcldYqPQickKMUqicdaXvibXdEb4OibV97CAwGO6TQ/640?wx_fmt=other&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&tp=webp#imgIndex=5\"/><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/dR7EpbvovdKnkt8t5QpwjNQOKyGlZz4SFiacicdM3aP4hZVCfGia7HbIYBoDxz2gubPAgoXDXhfrcLIfT2eG92icfw/640?wx_fmt=other&from=appmsg&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&tp=webp#imgIndex=6\"/><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/dR7EpbvovdLt0fplojSTcIf4vTY1fP5f5VhIsL3QI5iaHIficMHKVzpaxPOM0yB24Zgs1PJlLHXFs5UXKRic0iaTxA/640?wx_fmt=gif&from=appmsg&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&tp=webp#imgIndex=7\"/></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉:一家或将陷入衰退的成长型企业\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-07 19:16 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260107192635a4a7912b&s=b><strong>美股研究社</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>用户群体的疏远与核心人物风险我们不会深入探讨多头最看重的三大炒作概念 —— 完全自动驾驶(FSD)、人工智能与机器人技术。原因很简单,这三项业务至今均未产生实质性的财务收益,依旧停留在投机阶段。即便未来其中一项或多项业务能够取得成功,也必须正视一个现实:这些领域的竞争都异常激烈,而特斯拉在切入这些赛道时,已然因创始人的政治立场卷入争议,导致品牌声誉受损,暴露出显著的核心人物风险。近年来,市场上一直...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260107192635a4a7912b&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","IE00B19Z8W00.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH \"A\" INC","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU2250418816.HKD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","TSYW.SI":"TESLA 3xLongSG261006","BK4604":"机器人概念","LU1267930730.SGD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金AS Acc SGD (CPF)","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","LU2750360641.GBP":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (GBPHDG) 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\"AMH2\" (AUDHDG) H2 INC","LU2023250330.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260107192635a4a7912b&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2601877535","content_text":"用户群体的疏远与核心人物风险我们不会深入探讨多头最看重的三大炒作概念 —— 完全自动驾驶(FSD)、人工智能与机器人技术。原因很简单,这三项业务至今均未产生实质性的财务收益,依旧停留在投机阶段。即便未来其中一项或多项业务能够取得成功,也必须正视一个现实:这些领域的竞争都异常激烈,而特斯拉在切入这些赛道时,已然因创始人的政治立场卷入争议,导致品牌声誉受损,暴露出显著的核心人物风险。近年来,市场上一直流传着 “过度追求政治正确,终将反噬企业经营” 的说法,而这一道理反过来同样成立。特斯拉因立场问题疏远了至少半数消费者,进而可能损害用户信任 —— 这对公司的发展而言,无疑是一剂毒药。【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】储能业务:装机量增长放缓,单位营收持续下滑接下来聚焦特斯拉的核心实体业务 —— 汽车制造与储能系统。在所有业务指标中,储能装机量(GWh)是特斯拉唯一能拿出手的增长数据。2025 年第四季度,公司储能装机量达到 14.2 吉瓦时的历史新高;全年装机量累计达 46.7 吉瓦时,展现出强劲的扩张态势。但光鲜数据的背后,是同比增速的快速滑落:2025 年储能装机量同比增幅为 49%,远低于 2024 年的 114% 与 2023 年的 126%。市场预测,到 2029 年,这一增速将进一步放缓至 26%,对应装机量约 141.8 吉瓦时。与装机量增速放缓相伴而来的,是单位装机量营收的持续走低。2020 至 2021 年,特斯拉每吉瓦时储能装机量能创造近 7 亿美元的营收;而到了 2025 年第二季度,这一数值已腰斩过半,降至 2.89 亿美元;第三季度进一步下滑至 2.76 亿美元。值得注意的是,过去五个季度里,储能业务的毛利率基本稳定在 25% 至 31% 的区间。综上,储能业务虽是特斯拉目前唯一具备实际增长潜力的板块,但该业务正面临 “装机量增速放缓、单位营收持续下滑” 的双重压力。汽车业务:交付量下滑叠加售价走低,内外承压无论市场如何炒作新概念,汽车销售仍是特斯拉的核心支柱业务。已有大量报道指出,2025 年第四季度,特斯拉汽车交付量同比暴跌 16%;全年交付量同比下降 9%,创下公司史上最差的季度同比表现,同时也是连续第二个财年交付量下滑。此外,根据分析师的测算,截至 2025 年第三季度,特斯拉汽车的过去十二个月(TTM)平均售价已跌破 4 万美元。市场预测,到 2029 年,特斯拉汽车年交付量有望达到 300 万辆,较 2025 年的 160 万辆实现增长。但这一目标的可行性,分析师深表怀疑 —— 毕竟,特斯拉正面临日益激烈的市场竞争。即便我们姑且认可这一偏乐观的预测,其对应的 2029 年交付量同比增速也仅为 28%,与 2023 年之前的高速增长时代相去甚远。要知道,彼时特斯拉尚未遭遇如此严重的声誉危机与竞争压力。从区域市场的表现中,我们更能直观感受到特斯拉的困境。2025 年 11 月,中国新能源汽车市场整体销量同比增长 21%,小米等中国本土品牌的交付量更是实现翻倍,而特斯拉在华销量却陷入同比停滞。放眼全球市场,2025 年比亚迪的纯电动汽车销量已大幅超越特斯拉。而在欧洲市场,马斯克的立场引发了消费者的强烈抵触:2025 年 12 月,特斯拉在瑞典、法国、西班牙、比利时、葡萄牙的新车注册量同比分别暴跌 71%、66%、44%、28% 和 13%。从欧洲主要市场的全年数据初步判断,特斯拉 2025 年的注册量同比降幅约为 25%,市场份额持续萎缩。雪上加霜的是,受美国本土政策支持力度减弱等因素影响,2026 年全球新能源汽车销量的整体增速预计将显著放缓。估值泡沫:人形机器人预期已被过度透支我们不妨暂且采信马斯克的说法 —— 预计到 2026 或 2027 年,特斯拉 Optimus 人形机器人的销量将突破 100 万台,单价或达 2.25 万美元,对应潜在营收约 225 亿美元。但从下图的市场一致预期中可以看出,这部分潜在营收早已被完全计入当前估值。在覆盖特斯拉的 34 位分析师中,最乐观的预测认为,公司 2027 年的年化营收将较 2025 年增长 720 亿美元。由此可见,市场对特斯拉的预期已然达到了 “只能成功、不能失败” 的极端程度。即便以这份极度乐观的 2027 年营收预期为基准,特斯拉当前对应的远期市盈率仍高达 147 倍。在之前的分析中,分析师曾从多个角度拆解特斯拉的估值,结论早已不言而喻:其估值水平早已脱离基本面,荒谬至极。而时至今日,这一结论依然成立。数据来源:营收预期(Seeking 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$ </a> 我想跟大家聊一聊,就是苹果这两天不停的阴跌的这个事,因为苹果也是我的大仓,这两天我也没跑了,然后就被拍在了里面。 想跟大家聊聊,现在主流的呃几个观点,就是第一呢其实消费不行了,没办法提前消费,这个是主流的一个看法。 第2个看法是 钱都流出了,流出到了比较热门的这几个股票上面去,比如说英伟达,比如说美光。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$美光科技(MU)$ </a> 最荒唐的还有一种看法,就是说 就是苹果不行了,没人买了,所以机构都在减持之类的,包括巴老爷也不当老板了。所以苹果一直在被减持。 站在一个持有苹果的角度上,我一个一个的去说。 首先第一,消费降级了,没人买了,这个其实我觉得确实有这种可能,但是这个非常容易破。就是只要你出廉价版,只要你用心的去做廉价版。或者说把新的产品线做得更好。就算消费降级了,还是有人买的。大家有没有听过一种叫奶头乐经济 当时韩国也出现了这种的尴尬的阶段,但是韩国这些人干什么呢?在家里打游戏。对吧,就算消费降级了,这种被人骂成电子xxx的这种东西依然是没有问题的。 第二钱都流出了,我认为这个是很现实的。它下跌了,那钱肯定流出了呀 但是如果真的遇到了问题,大家去看的是他是不是机构减持,要看它的交易量的,它交易量并没有,对不对?但是这种阴跌肯定是。但是如果说现在是情绪化的问题来说,我觉得这是没有问题的。 第3个,我觉得这简直是胡说八道。个人认为究其原因就是苹果之前涨得太快了,他现在估值其实超过了它所能承载的市值,所以要杀一杀他的估值 因为我拿苹果算时间比较长的","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$ </a> 我想跟大家聊一聊,就是苹果这两天不停的阴跌的这个事,因为苹果也是我的大仓,这两天我也没跑了,然后就被拍在了里面。 想跟大家聊聊,现在主流的呃几个观点,就是第一呢其实消费不行了,没办法提前消费,这个是主流的一个看法。 第2个看法是 钱都流出了,流出到了比较热门的这几个股票上面去,比如说英伟达,比如说美光。<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06082\">$壁仞科技(06082)$ </a> 盛世华庭","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06082\">$壁仞科技(06082)$ </a> 盛世华庭","text":"$壁仞科技(06082)$ 盛世华庭","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/517513794355288","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":548,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":516414075794024,"gmtCreate":1767106860753,"gmtModify":1767106862880,"author":{"id":"4208673939477970","authorId":"4208673939477970","name":"千祥云集xyq","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4208673939477970","authorIdStr":"4208673939477970"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLQ\">$2倍做空TSLA ETF-Tradr(TSLQ)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 继继续奏乐,继续舞。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLQ\">$2倍做空TSLA ETF-Tradr(TSLQ)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 继继续奏乐,继续舞。","text":"$2倍做空TSLA ETF-Tradr(TSLQ)$ 继继续奏乐,继续舞。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/516414075794024","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":551,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":516413446009144,"gmtCreate":1767106701844,"gmtModify":1767106703698,"author":{"id":"4208673939477970","authorId":"4208673939477970","name":"千祥云集xyq","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4208673939477970","authorIdStr":"4208673939477970"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 下来吧","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a><v-v 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💪","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/514303461323392","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":621,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":521148162941088,"gmtCreate":1768262224184,"gmtModify":1768262227806,"author":{"id":"4208673939477970","authorId":"4208673939477970","name":"千祥云集xyq","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4208673939477970","authorIdStr":"4208673939477970"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"本届展会上释放自动驾驶领域的新动作。","listText":"本届展会上释放自动驾驶领域的新动作。","text":"本届展会上释放自动驾驶领域的新动作。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/521148162941088","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":41,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":521138856686864,"gmtCreate":1768259873796,"gmtModify":1768259876372,"author":{"id":"4208673939477970","authorId":"4208673939477970","name":"千祥云集xyq","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4208673939477970","authorIdStr":"4208673939477970"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"不错😌","listText":"不错😌","text":"不错😌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/521138856686864","repostId":"520971877262528","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":520971877262528,"gmtCreate":1768219105446,"gmtModify":1768226105446,"author":{"id":"3461586073682313","authorId":"3461586073682313","name":"Leader","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/5c2573e1e23bea3da9040a94847c190b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3461586073682313","authorIdStr":"3461586073682313"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$美光科技(MU)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">$博通(AVGO)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600795\">$国电电力(600795)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 新能源产业链开始布局 AI崛起,未来谁有能源谁有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/J/showDialog/word_explain?id=1993222150055944192&word=金本位\">金本位</a>,电力就是未来的钞票💵 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/J/showDialog/word_explain?id=1993174734636212224&word=算力\">算力</a>存储我们已经吃到了美光的红利,现在 开始布局电力板块,偏向防守稳健红利区域! 政策和地缘把能源从可以投变成了必须投,这个赛道的底就托住了:需求确定,供给紧,政策兜底,估值不贵! AI 与能源:","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$美光科技(MU)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">$博通(AVGO)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600795\">$国电电力(600795)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 新能源产业链开始布局 AI崛起,未来谁有能源谁有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/J/showDialog/word_explain?id=1993222150055944192&word=金本位\">金本位</a>,电力就是未来的钞票💵 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/J/showDialog/word_explain?id=1993174734636212224&word=算力\">算力</a>存储我们已经吃到了美光的红利,现在 开始布局电力板块,偏向防守稳健红利区域! 政策和地缘把能源从可以投变成了必须投,这个赛道的底就托住了:需求确定,供给紧,政策兜底,估值不贵! AI 与能源:","text":"$美光科技(MU)$ $博通(AVGO)$ $苹果(AAPL)$ $英伟达(NVDA)$ $国电电力(600795)$ 新能源产业链开始布局 AI崛起,未来谁有能源谁有金本位,电力就是未来的钞票💵 算力存储我们已经吃到了美光的红利,现在 开始布局电力板块,偏向防守稳健红利区域! 政策和地缘把能源从可以投变成了必须投,这个赛道的底就托住了:需求确定,供给紧,政策兜底,估值不贵! 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