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千祥云集xyq
01-10 20:58
肯定是一切的基础。
千祥云集xyq
01-09 20:17
所有的逻辑都是站不住的。
特斯拉:一家或将陷入衰退的成长型企业
千祥云集xyq
01-09 08:00
n能不能你举高高
千祥云集xyq
01-09 07:59
h😃🥩🥩🥩🥩
@马虎恶魔号:
$苹果(AAPL)$
我想跟大家聊一聊,就是苹果这两天不停的阴跌的这个事,因为苹果也是我的大仓,这两天我也没跑了,然后就被拍在了里面。 想跟大家聊聊,现在主流的呃几个观点,就是第一呢其实消费不行了,没办法提前消费,这个是主流的一个看法。 第2个看法是 钱都流出了,流出到了比较热门的这几个股票上面去,比如说英伟达,比如说美光。
$英伟达(NVDA)$
$美光科技(MU)$
最荒唐的还有一种看法,就是说 就是苹果不行了,没人买了,所以机构都在减持之类的,包括巴老爷也不当老板了。所以苹果一直在被减持。 站在一个持有苹果的角度上,我一个一个的去说。 首先第一,消费降级了,没人买了,这个其实我觉得确实有这种可能,但是这个非常容易破。就是只要你出廉价版,只要你用心的去做廉价版。或者说把新的产品线做得更好。就算消费降级了,还是有人买的。大家有没有听过一种叫奶头乐经济 当时韩国也出现了这种的尴尬的阶段,但是韩国这些人干什么呢?在家里打游戏。对吧,就算消费降级了,这种被人骂成电子xxx的这种东西依然是没有问题的。 第二钱都流出了,我认为这个是很现实的。它下跌了,那钱肯定流出了呀 但是如果真的遇到了问题,大家去看的是他是不是机构减持,要看它的交易量的,它交易量并没有,对不对?但是这种阴跌肯定是。但是如果说现在是情绪化的问题来说,我觉得这是没有问题的。 第3个,我觉得这简直是胡说八道。个人认为究其原因就是苹果之前涨得太快了,他现在估值其实超过了它所能承载的市值,所以要杀一杀他的估值 因为我拿苹果算时间比较长的
千祥云集xyq
01-08 14:25
那你看看哦哦黄花鱼
千祥云集xyq
01-07
联合起来搞好一点,各自为政功亏一篑
千祥云集xyq
01-05
$壁仞科技(06082)$
继续输液继续捂。
千祥云集xyq
01-03
$壁仞科技(06082)$
不错的变革,大家持之以恒
千祥云集xyq
01-02
$壁仞科技(06082)$
盛世华庭
千祥云集xyq
2025-12-30
$2倍做空TSLA ETF-Tradr(TSLQ)$
继继续奏乐,继续舞。
千祥云集xyq
2025-12-30
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
下来吧
千祥云集xyq
2025-12-27
$2倍做空TSLA ETF-Tradr(TSLQ)$
涨不停不停涨。
千祥云集xyq
2025-12-25
$2倍做空TSLA ETF-Tradr(TSLQ)$
💪
千祥云集xyq
2025-12-24
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
不可能一直没有更新 对于哈哈哈
千祥云集xyq
2025-09-26
赶紧叫爸爸后雨刮
千祥云集xyq
2025-09-26
$黄金主连 2512(GCmain)$
跌破了跌跌不休
千祥云集xyq
2025-06-14
作为连接数字加密货币和现实货币的资产公司,其市场和叙事场景巨大,未来一定能够10倍 <br>
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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19:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉:一家或将陷入衰退的成长型企业","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2601877535","media":"美股研究社","summary":"综上,储能业务虽是特斯拉目前唯一具备实际增长潜力的板块,但该业务正面临 “装机量增速放缓、单位营收持续下滑” 的双重压力。要知道,彼时特斯拉尚未遭遇如此严重的声誉危机与竞争压力。综合来看,特斯拉已不再是一家高速成长的企业,反而是正陷入衰退的泥潭。","content":"<html><body><article><p><strong>用户群体的疏远与核心人物风险</strong></p><p>我们不会深入探讨多头最看重的三大炒作概念 —— 完全自动驾驶(FSD)、人工智能与机器人技术。原因很简单,这三项业务至今均未产生实质性的财务收益,依旧停留在投机阶段。</p><p>即便未来其中一项或多项业务能够取得成功,也必须正视一个现实:这些领域的竞争都异常激烈,而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>在切入这些赛道时,已然因创始人的政治立场卷入争议,导致品牌声誉受损,暴露出显著的<strong>核心人物风险</strong>。近年来,市场上一直流传着 “过度追求政治正确,终将反噬企业经营” 的说法,而这一道理反过来同样成立。特斯拉因立场问题疏远了至少半数消费者,进而可能损害用户信任 —— 这对公司的发展而言,无疑是一剂毒药。</p><img src=\"\"/><p>【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdKBibR2JMaxUNVoEYIawaicLcrVAEs2bhwIEUP4FfvianI8UkwWsmGS8QGt9FUCfIVia1npfInK1SOWWQ/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg\"/><p><strong>储能业务:</strong></p><p><strong>装机量增长放缓,单位营收持续下滑</strong></p><p>接下来聚焦特斯拉的核心实体业务 —— 汽车制造与储能系统。在所有业务指标中,储能装机量(GWh)是特斯拉唯一能拿出手的增长数据。2025 年第四季度,公司储能装机量达到 14.2 吉瓦时的历史新高;全年装机量累计达 46.7 吉瓦时,展现出强劲的扩张态势。</p><p>但光鲜数据的背后,是<strong>同比增速的快速滑落</strong>:2025 年储能装机量同比增幅为 49%,远低于 2024 年的 114% 与 2023 年的 126%。市场预测,到 2029 年,这一增速将进一步放缓至 26%,对应装机量约 141.8 吉瓦时。</p><p>与装机量增速放缓相伴而来的,是<strong>单位装机量营收的持续走低</strong>。2020 至 2021 年,特斯拉每吉瓦时储能装机量能创造近 7 亿美元的营收;而到了 2025 年第二季度,这一数值已腰斩过半,降至 2.89 亿美元;第三季度进一步下滑至 2.76 亿美元。值得注意的是,过去五个季度里,储能业务的毛利率基本稳定在 25% 至 31% 的区间。</p><p>综上,储能业务虽是特斯拉目前唯一具备实际增长潜力的板块,但该业务正面临 “装机量增速放缓、单位营收持续下滑” 的双重压力。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdKBibR2JMaxUNVoEYIawaicLczbSMU66CbrBjDq7jpr5zsiclLE4DkRGuL9TVwK0r2tbvibNaKK4AzxHw/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg\"/><p><strong>汽车业务:</strong></p><p><strong>交付量下滑叠加售价走低,内外承压</strong></p><p>无论市场如何炒作新概念,汽车销售仍是特斯拉的核心支柱业务。已有大量报道指出,2025 年第四季度,特斯拉汽车交付量同比暴跌 16%;全年交付量同比下降 9%,创下公司史上最差的季度同比表现,同时也是连续第二个财年交付量下滑。</p><p>此外,根据分析师的测算,截至 2025 年第三季度,特斯拉汽车的过去十二个月(TTM)平均售价已<span>跌破</span> 4 万美元。</p><p>市场预测,到 2029 年,特斯拉汽车年交付量有望达到 300 万辆,较 2025 年的 160 万辆实现增长。但这一目标的可行性,分析师深表怀疑 —— 毕竟,特斯拉正面临日益激烈的市场竞争。即便我们姑且认可这一偏乐观的预测,其对应的 2029 年交付量同比增速也仅为 28%,与 2023 年之前的高速增长时代相去甚远。要知道,彼时特斯拉尚未遭遇如此严重的声誉危机与竞争压力。</p><p>从区域市场的表现中,我们更能直观感受到特斯拉的困境。2025 年 11 月,中国新能源汽车市场整体销量同比增长 21%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XIACY\">小米</a>等中国本土品牌的交付量更是实现翻倍,而特斯拉在华销量却陷入同比停滞。</p><p>放眼全球市场,2025 年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYDDY\">比亚迪</a>的纯电动汽车销量已大幅超越特斯拉。而在欧洲市场,马斯克的立场引发了消费者的强烈抵触:2025 年 12 月,特斯拉在瑞典、法国、西班牙、比利时、葡萄牙的新车注册量同比分别暴跌 71%、66%、44%、28% 和 13%。从欧洲主要市场的全年数据初步判断,特斯拉 2025 年的注册量同比降幅约为 25%,市场份额持续萎缩。</p><p>雪上加霜的是,受美国本土政策支持力度减弱等因素影响,2026 年全球新能源汽车销量的整体增速预计将显著放缓。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdKBibR2JMaxUNVoEYIawaicLciaWMQ0QPFPFmoNQtcVWichXhCuZB2x0BS879mNfIl6Lz8r5HIRlqLj6w/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg\"/><p><strong>估值泡沫:</strong></p><p><strong>人形机器人预期已被过度透支</strong></p><p>我们不妨暂且采信马斯克的说法 —— 预计到 2026 或 2027 年,特斯拉 Optimus 人形机器人的销量将突破 100 万台,单价或达 2.25 万美元,对应潜在营收约 225 亿美元。</p><p>但从下图的市场一致预期中可以看出,这部分潜在营收早已被<strong>完全计入当前估值</strong>。在覆盖特斯拉的 34 位分析师中,最乐观的预测认为,公司 2027 年的年化营收将较 2025 年增长 720 亿美元。由此可见,市场对特斯拉的预期已然达到了 “只能成功、不能失败” 的极端程度。</p><p>即便以这份极度乐观的 2027 年营收预期为基准,特斯拉当前对应的远期市盈率仍高达 147 倍。在之前的分析中,分析师曾从多个角度拆解特斯拉的估值,结论早已不言而喻:其估值水平早已脱离基本面,荒谬至极。而时至今日,这一结论依然成立。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/dR7EpbvovdKLTlW17KYicXbduwZsUSFEKA3QhDoZBDRLD4pI17USiafzA7ib7ZgicBniaIKocAFvdFCDFy7DSsRicKibw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&from=appmsg\"/><p>数据来源:营收预期(Seeking Alpha)</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdJ3W4gruZ6lz6pj1cuQvXYHzFTgv6zBDxN3hjm1PtXPLNKCakI3eyW9mPqibvjCvXwDia0vaM9Nht8w/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg\"/><p><strong>结语</strong></p><p>在竞争白热化的新能源汽车市场,特斯拉正面临交付量下滑与售价走低的双重压力;储能业务虽有增长,但增速放缓、单位营收下滑的隐忧日益凸显。人形机器人等新兴业务的潜在收益,早已被市场透支殆尽,当前估值完全建立在充满不确定性的预期之上。</p><p>更致命的是,创始人的政治立场引发的品牌声誉危机,以及由此带来的核心人物风险,正在持续损害公司的用户基础与市场竞争力。</p><p>综合来看,特斯拉已不再是一家高速成长的企业,反而是正陷入衰退的泥潭。对投资者而言,现在正是最后的离场时机。</p><img 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/>\n<title>特斯拉:一家或将陷入衰退的成长型企业</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; 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0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉:一家或将陷入衰退的成长型企业\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-07 19:16 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260107192635a4a7912b&s=b><strong>美股研究社</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>用户群体的疏远与核心人物风险我们不会深入探讨多头最看重的三大炒作概念 —— 完全自动驾驶(FSD)、人工智能与机器人技术。原因很简单,这三项业务至今均未产生实质性的财务收益,依旧停留在投机阶段。即便未来其中一项或多项业务能够取得成功,也必须正视一个现实:这些领域的竞争都异常激烈,而特斯拉在切入这些赛道时,已然因创始人的政治立场卷入争议,导致品牌声誉受损,暴露出显著的核心人物风险。近年来,市场上一直...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260107192635a4a7912b&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0345770993.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4604":"机器人概念","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU0672654240.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD-H1","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD","SG9999015952.SGD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (SGD) ACC","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 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INC","SG9999015945.SGD":"LionGlobal Disruptive Innovation Fund A SGD","LU2896262040.SGD":"JPM US GROWTH FUND \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU0345770308.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260107192635a4a7912b&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2601877535","content_text":"用户群体的疏远与核心人物风险我们不会深入探讨多头最看重的三大炒作概念 —— 完全自动驾驶(FSD)、人工智能与机器人技术。原因很简单,这三项业务至今均未产生实质性的财务收益,依旧停留在投机阶段。即便未来其中一项或多项业务能够取得成功,也必须正视一个现实:这些领域的竞争都异常激烈,而特斯拉在切入这些赛道时,已然因创始人的政治立场卷入争议,导致品牌声誉受损,暴露出显著的核心人物风险。近年来,市场上一直流传着 “过度追求政治正确,终将反噬企业经营” 的说法,而这一道理反过来同样成立。特斯拉因立场问题疏远了至少半数消费者,进而可能损害用户信任 —— 这对公司的发展而言,无疑是一剂毒药。【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】储能业务:装机量增长放缓,单位营收持续下滑接下来聚焦特斯拉的核心实体业务 —— 汽车制造与储能系统。在所有业务指标中,储能装机量(GWh)是特斯拉唯一能拿出手的增长数据。2025 年第四季度,公司储能装机量达到 14.2 吉瓦时的历史新高;全年装机量累计达 46.7 吉瓦时,展现出强劲的扩张态势。但光鲜数据的背后,是同比增速的快速滑落:2025 年储能装机量同比增幅为 49%,远低于 2024 年的 114% 与 2023 年的 126%。市场预测,到 2029 年,这一增速将进一步放缓至 26%,对应装机量约 141.8 吉瓦时。与装机量增速放缓相伴而来的,是单位装机量营收的持续走低。2020 至 2021 年,特斯拉每吉瓦时储能装机量能创造近 7 亿美元的营收;而到了 2025 年第二季度,这一数值已腰斩过半,降至 2.89 亿美元;第三季度进一步下滑至 2.76 亿美元。值得注意的是,过去五个季度里,储能业务的毛利率基本稳定在 25% 至 31% 的区间。综上,储能业务虽是特斯拉目前唯一具备实际增长潜力的板块,但该业务正面临 “装机量增速放缓、单位营收持续下滑” 的双重压力。汽车业务:交付量下滑叠加售价走低,内外承压无论市场如何炒作新概念,汽车销售仍是特斯拉的核心支柱业务。已有大量报道指出,2025 年第四季度,特斯拉汽车交付量同比暴跌 16%;全年交付量同比下降 9%,创下公司史上最差的季度同比表现,同时也是连续第二个财年交付量下滑。此外,根据分析师的测算,截至 2025 年第三季度,特斯拉汽车的过去十二个月(TTM)平均售价已跌破 4 万美元。市场预测,到 2029 年,特斯拉汽车年交付量有望达到 300 万辆,较 2025 年的 160 万辆实现增长。但这一目标的可行性,分析师深表怀疑 —— 毕竟,特斯拉正面临日益激烈的市场竞争。即便我们姑且认可这一偏乐观的预测,其对应的 2029 年交付量同比增速也仅为 28%,与 2023 年之前的高速增长时代相去甚远。要知道,彼时特斯拉尚未遭遇如此严重的声誉危机与竞争压力。从区域市场的表现中,我们更能直观感受到特斯拉的困境。2025 年 11 月,中国新能源汽车市场整体销量同比增长 21%,小米等中国本土品牌的交付量更是实现翻倍,而特斯拉在华销量却陷入同比停滞。放眼全球市场,2025 年比亚迪的纯电动汽车销量已大幅超越特斯拉。而在欧洲市场,马斯克的立场引发了消费者的强烈抵触:2025 年 12 月,特斯拉在瑞典、法国、西班牙、比利时、葡萄牙的新车注册量同比分别暴跌 71%、66%、44%、28% 和 13%。从欧洲主要市场的全年数据初步判断,特斯拉 2025 年的注册量同比降幅约为 25%,市场份额持续萎缩。雪上加霜的是,受美国本土政策支持力度减弱等因素影响,2026 年全球新能源汽车销量的整体增速预计将显著放缓。估值泡沫:人形机器人预期已被过度透支我们不妨暂且采信马斯克的说法 —— 预计到 2026 或 2027 年,特斯拉 Optimus 人形机器人的销量将突破 100 万台,单价或达 2.25 万美元,对应潜在营收约 225 亿美元。但从下图的市场一致预期中可以看出,这部分潜在营收早已被完全计入当前估值。在覆盖特斯拉的 34 位分析师中,最乐观的预测认为,公司 2027 年的年化营收将较 2025 年增长 720 亿美元。由此可见,市场对特斯拉的预期已然达到了 “只能成功、不能失败” 的极端程度。即便以这份极度乐观的 2027 年营收预期为基准,特斯拉当前对应的远期市盈率仍高达 147 倍。在之前的分析中,分析师曾从多个角度拆解特斯拉的估值,结论早已不言而喻:其估值水平早已脱离基本面,荒谬至极。而时至今日,这一结论依然成立。数据来源:营收预期(Seeking 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$美光科技(MU)$ </a> 最荒唐的还有一种看法,就是说 就是苹果不行了,没人买了,所以机构都在减持之类的,包括巴老爷也不当老板了。所以苹果一直在被减持。 站在一个持有苹果的角度上,我一个一个的去说。 首先第一,消费降级了,没人买了,这个其实我觉得确实有这种可能,但是这个非常容易破。就是只要你出廉价版,只要你用心的去做廉价版。或者说把新的产品线做得更好。就算消费降级了,还是有人买的。大家有没有听过一种叫奶头乐经济 当时韩国也出现了这种的尴尬的阶段,但是韩国这些人干什么呢?在家里打游戏。对吧,就算消费降级了,这种被人骂成电子xxx的这种东西依然是没有问题的。 第二钱都流出了,我认为这个是很现实的。它下跌了,那钱肯定流出了呀 但是如果真的遇到了问题,大家去看的是他是不是机构减持,要看它的交易量的,它交易量并没有,对不对?但是这种阴跌肯定是。但是如果说现在是情绪化的问题来说,我觉得这是没有问题的。 第3个,我觉得这简直是胡说八道。个人认为究其原因就是苹果之前涨得太快了,他现在估值其实超过了它所能承载的市值,所以要杀一杀他的估值 因为我拿苹果算时间比较长的","text":"$苹果(AAPL)$ 我想跟大家聊一聊,就是苹果这两天不停的阴跌的这个事,因为苹果也是我的大仓,这两天我也没跑了,然后就被拍在了里面。 想跟大家聊聊,现在主流的呃几个观点,就是第一呢其实消费不行了,没办法提前消费,这个是主流的一个看法。 第2个看法是 钱都流出了,流出到了比较热门的这几个股票上面去,比如说英伟达,比如说美光。$英伟达(NVDA)$ $美光科技(MU)$ 最荒唐的还有一种看法,就是说 就是苹果不行了,没人买了,所以机构都在减持之类的,包括巴老爷也不当老板了。所以苹果一直在被减持。 站在一个持有苹果的角度上,我一个一个的去说。 首先第一,消费降级了,没人买了,这个其实我觉得确实有这种可能,但是这个非常容易破。就是只要你出廉价版,只要你用心的去做廉价版。或者说把新的产品线做得更好。就算消费降级了,还是有人买的。大家有没有听过一种叫奶头乐经济 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06082\">$壁仞科技(06082)$ </a> 继续输液继续捂。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06082\">$壁仞科技(06082)$ </a> 继续输液继续捂。","text":"$壁仞科技(06082)$ 继续输液继续捂。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/518519284663104","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1383,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":517770848347032,"gmtCreate":1767438109284,"gmtModify":1767438111563,"author":{"id":"4208673939477970","authorId":"4208673939477970","name":"千祥云集xyq","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4208673939477970","idStr":"4208673939477970"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06082\">$壁仞科技(06082)$ </a> 不错的变革,大家持之以恒","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06082\">$壁仞科技(06082)$ </a> 不错的变革,大家持之以恒","text":"$壁仞科技(06082)$ 不错的变革,大家持之以恒","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/517770848347032","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1200,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":517513794355288,"gmtCreate":1767318145170,"gmtModify":1767318147397,"author":{"id":"4208673939477970","authorId":"4208673939477970","name":"千祥云集xyq","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4208673939477970","idStr":"4208673939477970"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06082\">$壁仞科技(06082)$ </a> 盛世华庭","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06082\">$壁仞科技(06082)$ </a> 盛世华庭","text":"$壁仞科技(06082)$ 盛世华庭","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/517513794355288","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":391,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":516414075794024,"gmtCreate":1767106860753,"gmtModify":1767106862880,"author":{"id":"4208673939477970","authorId":"4208673939477970","name":"千祥云集xyq","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4208673939477970","idStr":"4208673939477970"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLQ\">$2倍做空TSLA ETF-Tradr(TSLQ)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 继继续奏乐,继续舞。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLQ\">$2倍做空TSLA ETF-Tradr(TSLQ)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 继继续奏乐,继续舞。","text":"$2倍做空TSLA ETF-Tradr(TSLQ)$ 继继续奏乐,继续舞。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/516414075794024","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":503,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":516413446009144,"gmtCreate":1767106701844,"gmtModify":1767106703698,"author":{"id":"4208673939477970","authorId":"4208673939477970","name":"千祥云集xyq","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4208673939477970","idStr":"4208673939477970"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 下来吧","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 下来吧","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 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对于哈哈哈","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 不可能一直没有更新 对于哈哈哈","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 不可能一直没有更新 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继续输液继续捂。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/518519284663104","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1383,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":520141038805208,"gmtCreate":1767961070406,"gmtModify":1767961072919,"author":{"id":"4208673939477970","authorId":"4208673939477970","name":"千祥云集xyq","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4208673939477970","idStr":"4208673939477970"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"所有的逻辑都是站不住的。","listText":"所有的逻辑都是站不住的。","text":"所有的逻辑都是站不住的。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/520141038805208","repostId":"2601877535","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2601877535","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1767784565,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2601877535?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-07 19:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉:一家或将陷入衰退的成长型企业","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2601877535","media":"美股研究社","summary":"综上,储能业务虽是特斯拉目前唯一具备实际增长潜力的板块,但该业务正面临 “装机量增速放缓、单位营收持续下滑” 的双重压力。要知道,彼时特斯拉尚未遭遇如此严重的声誉危机与竞争压力。综合来看,特斯拉已不再是一家高速成长的企业,反而是正陷入衰退的泥潭。","content":"<html><body><article><p><strong>用户群体的疏远与核心人物风险</strong></p><p>我们不会深入探讨多头最看重的三大炒作概念 —— 完全自动驾驶(FSD)、人工智能与机器人技术。原因很简单,这三项业务至今均未产生实质性的财务收益,依旧停留在投机阶段。</p><p>即便未来其中一项或多项业务能够取得成功,也必须正视一个现实:这些领域的竞争都异常激烈,而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>在切入这些赛道时,已然因创始人的政治立场卷入争议,导致品牌声誉受损,暴露出显著的<strong>核心人物风险</strong>。近年来,市场上一直流传着 “过度追求政治正确,终将反噬企业经营” 的说法,而这一道理反过来同样成立。特斯拉因立场问题疏远了至少半数消费者,进而可能损害用户信任 —— 这对公司的发展而言,无疑是一剂毒药。</p><img src=\"\"/><p>【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdKBibR2JMaxUNVoEYIawaicLcrVAEs2bhwIEUP4FfvianI8UkwWsmGS8QGt9FUCfIVia1npfInK1SOWWQ/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg\"/><p><strong>储能业务:</strong></p><p><strong>装机量增长放缓,单位营收持续下滑</strong></p><p>接下来聚焦特斯拉的核心实体业务 —— 汽车制造与储能系统。在所有业务指标中,储能装机量(GWh)是特斯拉唯一能拿出手的增长数据。2025 年第四季度,公司储能装机量达到 14.2 吉瓦时的历史新高;全年装机量累计达 46.7 吉瓦时,展现出强劲的扩张态势。</p><p>但光鲜数据的背后,是<strong>同比增速的快速滑落</strong>:2025 年储能装机量同比增幅为 49%,远低于 2024 年的 114% 与 2023 年的 126%。市场预测,到 2029 年,这一增速将进一步放缓至 26%,对应装机量约 141.8 吉瓦时。</p><p>与装机量增速放缓相伴而来的,是<strong>单位装机量营收的持续走低</strong>。2020 至 2021 年,特斯拉每吉瓦时储能装机量能创造近 7 亿美元的营收;而到了 2025 年第二季度,这一数值已腰斩过半,降至 2.89 亿美元;第三季度进一步下滑至 2.76 亿美元。值得注意的是,过去五个季度里,储能业务的毛利率基本稳定在 25% 至 31% 的区间。</p><p>综上,储能业务虽是特斯拉目前唯一具备实际增长潜力的板块,但该业务正面临 “装机量增速放缓、单位营收持续下滑” 的双重压力。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdKBibR2JMaxUNVoEYIawaicLczbSMU66CbrBjDq7jpr5zsiclLE4DkRGuL9TVwK0r2tbvibNaKK4AzxHw/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg\"/><p><strong>汽车业务:</strong></p><p><strong>交付量下滑叠加售价走低,内外承压</strong></p><p>无论市场如何炒作新概念,汽车销售仍是特斯拉的核心支柱业务。已有大量报道指出,2025 年第四季度,特斯拉汽车交付量同比暴跌 16%;全年交付量同比下降 9%,创下公司史上最差的季度同比表现,同时也是连续第二个财年交付量下滑。</p><p>此外,根据分析师的测算,截至 2025 年第三季度,特斯拉汽车的过去十二个月(TTM)平均售价已<span>跌破</span> 4 万美元。</p><p>市场预测,到 2029 年,特斯拉汽车年交付量有望达到 300 万辆,较 2025 年的 160 万辆实现增长。但这一目标的可行性,分析师深表怀疑 —— 毕竟,特斯拉正面临日益激烈的市场竞争。即便我们姑且认可这一偏乐观的预测,其对应的 2029 年交付量同比增速也仅为 28%,与 2023 年之前的高速增长时代相去甚远。要知道,彼时特斯拉尚未遭遇如此严重的声誉危机与竞争压力。</p><p>从区域市场的表现中,我们更能直观感受到特斯拉的困境。2025 年 11 月,中国新能源汽车市场整体销量同比增长 21%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XIACY\">小米</a>等中国本土品牌的交付量更是实现翻倍,而特斯拉在华销量却陷入同比停滞。</p><p>放眼全球市场,2025 年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYDDY\">比亚迪</a>的纯电动汽车销量已大幅超越特斯拉。而在欧洲市场,马斯克的立场引发了消费者的强烈抵触:2025 年 12 月,特斯拉在瑞典、法国、西班牙、比利时、葡萄牙的新车注册量同比分别暴跌 71%、66%、44%、28% 和 13%。从欧洲主要市场的全年数据初步判断,特斯拉 2025 年的注册量同比降幅约为 25%,市场份额持续萎缩。</p><p>雪上加霜的是,受美国本土政策支持力度减弱等因素影响,2026 年全球新能源汽车销量的整体增速预计将显著放缓。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdKBibR2JMaxUNVoEYIawaicLciaWMQ0QPFPFmoNQtcVWichXhCuZB2x0BS879mNfIl6Lz8r5HIRlqLj6w/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg\"/><p><strong>估值泡沫:</strong></p><p><strong>人形机器人预期已被过度透支</strong></p><p>我们不妨暂且采信马斯克的说法 —— 预计到 2026 或 2027 年,特斯拉 Optimus 人形机器人的销量将突破 100 万台,单价或达 2.25 万美元,对应潜在营收约 225 亿美元。</p><p>但从下图的市场一致预期中可以看出,这部分潜在营收早已被<strong>完全计入当前估值</strong>。在覆盖特斯拉的 34 位分析师中,最乐观的预测认为,公司 2027 年的年化营收将较 2025 年增长 720 亿美元。由此可见,市场对特斯拉的预期已然达到了 “只能成功、不能失败” 的极端程度。</p><p>即便以这份极度乐观的 2027 年营收预期为基准,特斯拉当前对应的远期市盈率仍高达 147 倍。在之前的分析中,分析师曾从多个角度拆解特斯拉的估值,结论早已不言而喻:其估值水平早已脱离基本面,荒谬至极。而时至今日,这一结论依然成立。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/dR7EpbvovdKLTlW17KYicXbduwZsUSFEKA3QhDoZBDRLD4pI17USiafzA7ib7ZgicBniaIKocAFvdFCDFy7DSsRicKibw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&from=appmsg\"/><p>数据来源:营收预期(Seeking Alpha)</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdJ3W4gruZ6lz6pj1cuQvXYHzFTgv6zBDxN3hjm1PtXPLNKCakI3eyW9mPqibvjCvXwDia0vaM9Nht8w/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg\"/><p><strong>结语</strong></p><p>在竞争白热化的新能源汽车市场,特斯拉正面临交付量下滑与售价走低的双重压力;储能业务虽有增长,但增速放缓、单位营收下滑的隐忧日益凸显。人形机器人等新兴业务的潜在收益,早已被市场透支殆尽,当前估值完全建立在充满不确定性的预期之上。</p><p>更致命的是,创始人的政治立场引发的品牌声誉危机,以及由此带来的核心人物风险,正在持续损害公司的用户基础与市场竞争力。</p><p>综合来看,特斯拉已不再是一家高速成长的企业,反而是正陷入衰退的泥潭。对投资者而言,现在正是最后的离场时机。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/dR7EpbvovdJlQNwm5fnHWnfblqB1P5B3gLTjg6j6dT5IyOFclcldYqPQickKMUqicdaXvibXdEb4OibV97CAwGO6TQ/640?wx_fmt=other&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&tp=webp#imgIndex=5\"/><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/dR7EpbvovdKnkt8t5QpwjNQOKyGlZz4SFiacicdM3aP4hZVCfGia7HbIYBoDxz2gubPAgoXDXhfrcLIfT2eG92icfw/640?wx_fmt=other&from=appmsg&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&tp=webp#imgIndex=6\"/><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/dR7EpbvovdLt0fplojSTcIf4vTY1fP5f5VhIsL3QI5iaHIficMHKVzpaxPOM0yB24Zgs1PJlLHXFs5UXKRic0iaTxA/640?wx_fmt=gif&from=appmsg&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&tp=webp#imgIndex=7\"/></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉:一家或将陷入衰退的成长型企业</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; 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0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉:一家或将陷入衰退的成长型企业\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-07 19:16 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260107192635a4a7912b&s=b><strong>美股研究社</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>用户群体的疏远与核心人物风险我们不会深入探讨多头最看重的三大炒作概念 —— 完全自动驾驶(FSD)、人工智能与机器人技术。原因很简单,这三项业务至今均未产生实质性的财务收益,依旧停留在投机阶段。即便未来其中一项或多项业务能够取得成功,也必须正视一个现实:这些领域的竞争都异常激烈,而特斯拉在切入这些赛道时,已然因创始人的政治立场卷入争议,导致品牌声誉受损,暴露出显著的核心人物风险。近年来,市场上一直...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260107192635a4a7912b&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0345770993.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4604":"机器人概念","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU0672654240.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD-H1","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD","SG9999015952.SGD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (SGD) ACC","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 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INC","SG9999015945.SGD":"LionGlobal Disruptive Innovation Fund A SGD","LU2896262040.SGD":"JPM US GROWTH FUND \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU0345770308.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260107192635a4a7912b&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2601877535","content_text":"用户群体的疏远与核心人物风险我们不会深入探讨多头最看重的三大炒作概念 —— 完全自动驾驶(FSD)、人工智能与机器人技术。原因很简单,这三项业务至今均未产生实质性的财务收益,依旧停留在投机阶段。即便未来其中一项或多项业务能够取得成功,也必须正视一个现实:这些领域的竞争都异常激烈,而特斯拉在切入这些赛道时,已然因创始人的政治立场卷入争议,导致品牌声誉受损,暴露出显著的核心人物风险。近年来,市场上一直流传着 “过度追求政治正确,终将反噬企业经营” 的说法,而这一道理反过来同样成立。特斯拉因立场问题疏远了至少半数消费者,进而可能损害用户信任 —— 这对公司的发展而言,无疑是一剂毒药。【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】储能业务:装机量增长放缓,单位营收持续下滑接下来聚焦特斯拉的核心实体业务 —— 汽车制造与储能系统。在所有业务指标中,储能装机量(GWh)是特斯拉唯一能拿出手的增长数据。2025 年第四季度,公司储能装机量达到 14.2 吉瓦时的历史新高;全年装机量累计达 46.7 吉瓦时,展现出强劲的扩张态势。但光鲜数据的背后,是同比增速的快速滑落:2025 年储能装机量同比增幅为 49%,远低于 2024 年的 114% 与 2023 年的 126%。市场预测,到 2029 年,这一增速将进一步放缓至 26%,对应装机量约 141.8 吉瓦时。与装机量增速放缓相伴而来的,是单位装机量营收的持续走低。2020 至 2021 年,特斯拉每吉瓦时储能装机量能创造近 7 亿美元的营收;而到了 2025 年第二季度,这一数值已腰斩过半,降至 2.89 亿美元;第三季度进一步下滑至 2.76 亿美元。值得注意的是,过去五个季度里,储能业务的毛利率基本稳定在 25% 至 31% 的区间。综上,储能业务虽是特斯拉目前唯一具备实际增长潜力的板块,但该业务正面临 “装机量增速放缓、单位营收持续下滑” 的双重压力。汽车业务:交付量下滑叠加售价走低,内外承压无论市场如何炒作新概念,汽车销售仍是特斯拉的核心支柱业务。已有大量报道指出,2025 年第四季度,特斯拉汽车交付量同比暴跌 16%;全年交付量同比下降 9%,创下公司史上最差的季度同比表现,同时也是连续第二个财年交付量下滑。此外,根据分析师的测算,截至 2025 年第三季度,特斯拉汽车的过去十二个月(TTM)平均售价已跌破 4 万美元。市场预测,到 2029 年,特斯拉汽车年交付量有望达到 300 万辆,较 2025 年的 160 万辆实现增长。但这一目标的可行性,分析师深表怀疑 —— 毕竟,特斯拉正面临日益激烈的市场竞争。即便我们姑且认可这一偏乐观的预测,其对应的 2029 年交付量同比增速也仅为 28%,与 2023 年之前的高速增长时代相去甚远。要知道,彼时特斯拉尚未遭遇如此严重的声誉危机与竞争压力。从区域市场的表现中,我们更能直观感受到特斯拉的困境。2025 年 11 月,中国新能源汽车市场整体销量同比增长 21%,小米等中国本土品牌的交付量更是实现翻倍,而特斯拉在华销量却陷入同比停滞。放眼全球市场,2025 年比亚迪的纯电动汽车销量已大幅超越特斯拉。而在欧洲市场,马斯克的立场引发了消费者的强烈抵触:2025 年 12 月,特斯拉在瑞典、法国、西班牙、比利时、葡萄牙的新车注册量同比分别暴跌 71%、66%、44%、28% 和 13%。从欧洲主要市场的全年数据初步判断,特斯拉 2025 年的注册量同比降幅约为 25%,市场份额持续萎缩。雪上加霜的是,受美国本土政策支持力度减弱等因素影响,2026 年全球新能源汽车销量的整体增速预计将显著放缓。估值泡沫:人形机器人预期已被过度透支我们不妨暂且采信马斯克的说法 —— 预计到 2026 或 2027 年,特斯拉 Optimus 人形机器人的销量将突破 100 万台,单价或达 2.25 万美元,对应潜在营收约 225 亿美元。但从下图的市场一致预期中可以看出,这部分潜在营收早已被完全计入当前估值。在覆盖特斯拉的 34 位分析师中,最乐观的预测认为,公司 2027 年的年化营收将较 2025 年增长 720 亿美元。由此可见,市场对特斯拉的预期已然达到了 “只能成功、不能失败” 的极端程度。即便以这份极度乐观的 2027 年营收预期为基准,特斯拉当前对应的远期市盈率仍高达 147 倍。在之前的分析中,分析师曾从多个角度拆解特斯拉的估值,结论早已不言而喻:其估值水平早已脱离基本面,荒谬至极。而时至今日,这一结论依然成立。数据来源:营收预期(Seeking Alpha)结语在竞争白热化的新能源汽车市场,特斯拉正面临交付量下滑与售价走低的双重压力;储能业务虽有增长,但增速放缓、单位营收下滑的隐忧日益凸显。人形机器人等新兴业务的潜在收益,早已被市场透支殆尽,当前估值完全建立在充满不确定性的预期之上。更致命的是,创始人的政治立场引发的品牌声誉危机,以及由此带来的核心人物风险,正在持续损害公司的用户基础与市场竞争力。综合来看,特斯拉已不再是一家高速成长的企业,反而是正陷入衰退的泥潭。对投资者而言,现在正是最后的离场时机。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1.98,"TSYW.SI":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":21,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":519763972502256,"gmtCreate":1767916831661,"gmtModify":1767916833892,"author":{"id":"4208673939477970","authorId":"4208673939477970","name":"千祥云集xyq","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4208673939477970","idStr":"4208673939477970"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"n能不能你举高高","listText":"n能不能你举高高","text":"n能不能你举高高","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/519763972502256","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":87,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":519960815419904,"gmtCreate":1767916770649,"gmtModify":1767916773039,"author":{"id":"4208673939477970","authorId":"4208673939477970","name":"千祥云集xyq","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4208673939477970","idStr":"4208673939477970"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"h😃🥩🥩🥩🥩","listText":"h😃🥩🥩🥩🥩","text":"h😃🥩🥩🥩🥩","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/519960815419904","repostId":"519625886490840","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":519625886490840,"gmtCreate":1767883126371,"gmtModify":1767884766701,"author":{"id":"3458349567571181","authorId":"3458349567571181","name":"马虎恶魔号","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5309b4545d61bcba8ee06c42836bf26f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3458349567571181","idStr":"3458349567571181"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$ </a> 我想跟大家聊一聊,就是苹果这两天不停的阴跌的这个事,因为苹果也是我的大仓,这两天我也没跑了,然后就被拍在了里面。 想跟大家聊聊,现在主流的呃几个观点,就是第一呢其实消费不行了,没办法提前消费,这个是主流的一个看法。 第2个看法是 钱都流出了,流出到了比较热门的这几个股票上面去,比如说英伟达,比如说美光。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$美光科技(MU)$ </a> 最荒唐的还有一种看法,就是说 就是苹果不行了,没人买了,所以机构都在减持之类的,包括巴老爷也不当老板了。所以苹果一直在被减持。 站在一个持有苹果的角度上,我一个一个的去说。 首先第一,消费降级了,没人买了,这个其实我觉得确实有这种可能,但是这个非常容易破。就是只要你出廉价版,只要你用心的去做廉价版。或者说把新的产品线做得更好。就算消费降级了,还是有人买的。大家有没有听过一种叫奶头乐经济 当时韩国也出现了这种的尴尬的阶段,但是韩国这些人干什么呢?在家里打游戏。对吧,就算消费降级了,这种被人骂成电子xxx的这种东西依然是没有问题的。 第二钱都流出了,我认为这个是很现实的。它下跌了,那钱肯定流出了呀 但是如果真的遇到了问题,大家去看的是他是不是机构减持,要看它的交易量的,它交易量并没有,对不对?但是这种阴跌肯定是。但是如果说现在是情绪化的问题来说,我觉得这是没有问题的。 第3个,我觉得这简直是胡说八道。个人认为究其原因就是苹果之前涨得太快了,他现在估值其实超过了它所能承载的市值,所以要杀一杀他的估值 因为我拿苹果算时间比较长的","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$ </a> 我想跟大家聊一聊,就是苹果这两天不停的阴跌的这个事,因为苹果也是我的大仓,这两天我也没跑了,然后就被拍在了里面。 想跟大家聊聊,现在主流的呃几个观点,就是第一呢其实消费不行了,没办法提前消费,这个是主流的一个看法。 第2个看法是 钱都流出了,流出到了比较热门的这几个股票上面去,比如说英伟达,比如说美光。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$美光科技(MU)$ </a> 最荒唐的还有一种看法,就是说 就是苹果不行了,没人买了,所以机构都在减持之类的,包括巴老爷也不当老板了。所以苹果一直在被减持。 站在一个持有苹果的角度上,我一个一个的去说。 首先第一,消费降级了,没人买了,这个其实我觉得确实有这种可能,但是这个非常容易破。就是只要你出廉价版,只要你用心的去做廉价版。或者说把新的产品线做得更好。就算消费降级了,还是有人买的。大家有没有听过一种叫奶头乐经济 当时韩国也出现了这种的尴尬的阶段,但是韩国这些人干什么呢?在家里打游戏。对吧,就算消费降级了,这种被人骂成电子xxx的这种东西依然是没有问题的。 第二钱都流出了,我认为这个是很现实的。它下跌了,那钱肯定流出了呀 但是如果真的遇到了问题,大家去看的是他是不是机构减持,要看它的交易量的,它交易量并没有,对不对?但是这种阴跌肯定是。但是如果说现在是情绪化的问题来说,我觉得这是没有问题的。 第3个,我觉得这简直是胡说八道。个人认为究其原因就是苹果之前涨得太快了,他现在估值其实超过了它所能承载的市值,所以要杀一杀他的估值 因为我拿苹果算时间比较长的","text":"$苹果(AAPL)$ 我想跟大家聊一聊,就是苹果这两天不停的阴跌的这个事,因为苹果也是我的大仓,这两天我也没跑了,然后就被拍在了里面。 想跟大家聊聊,现在主流的呃几个观点,就是第一呢其实消费不行了,没办法提前消费,这个是主流的一个看法。 第2个看法是 钱都流出了,流出到了比较热门的这几个股票上面去,比如说英伟达,比如说美光。$英伟达(NVDA)$ $美光科技(MU)$ 最荒唐的还有一种看法,就是说 就是苹果不行了,没人买了,所以机构都在减持之类的,包括巴老爷也不当老板了。所以苹果一直在被减持。 站在一个持有苹果的角度上,我一个一个的去说。 首先第一,消费降级了,没人买了,这个其实我觉得确实有这种可能,但是这个非常容易破。就是只要你出廉价版,只要你用心的去做廉价版。或者说把新的产品线做得更好。就算消费降级了,还是有人买的。大家有没有听过一种叫奶头乐经济 当时韩国也出现了这种的尴尬的阶段,但是韩国这些人干什么呢?在家里打游戏。对吧,就算消费降级了,这种被人骂成电子xxx的这种东西依然是没有问题的。 第二钱都流出了,我认为这个是很现实的。它下跌了,那钱肯定流出了呀 但是如果真的遇到了问题,大家去看的是他是不是机构减持,要看它的交易量的,它交易量并没有,对不对?但是这种阴跌肯定是。但是如果说现在是情绪化的问题来说,我觉得这是没有问题的。 第3个,我觉得这简直是胡说八道。个人认为究其原因就是苹果之前涨得太快了,他现在估值其实超过了它所能承载的市值,所以要杀一杀他的估值 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