Shopify shares picked up an endorsement Thursday from Evercore ISI analyst Mark Mahaney, who lifted his rating on the e-commerce software company to Outperform from In Line. Mahaney set a price target on the stock of $1,770, for a potential gain of just over 21%.
Shopify stock fell 3%, at $1,326.88, in recent trading. The S&P 500 fell 0.9%.
Mahaney offers a four-part thesis on his more bullish stance on Shopify.
For one thing, he notes that the stock was off about 20% from its high for the year. Mahaney observes that the stock’s valuation, as measured by enterprise value as a multiple of forward sales, is back down to pre-Covid levels. And he argues that Shopify is “one of the biggest structural winners” from the Covid crisis, as more sellers shift business to a digital model.
Mahaney writes that he views Shopify as “one of the highest quality” companies he covers. Through 2023, the company should grow at a compound annual growth rate of 34%, according to the analyst, which he says makes it among the fastest-growing midsize or large internet companies, trailing only Snap (SNAP) and Uber Technologies (UBER), both beneficiaries of easy 2021 comparisons.
Mahaney also thinks Shopify’s Ebitda margins (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) will expand from 14% in 2019 to 18% this year, with levels above 20% in three of the last four quarters. “The long-term margin profile of Shopify was historically a key investor concern and we believe this year they have proved that this business can generate significant free cash flow,” he writes.
A third positive for the stock, Mahaney contends, is growth in new and emerging areas. Among other things, he cites the extension of the company’s Shop Pay platform to non-Shopify merchants, the growth of Shopify’s fulfillment network, and the expansion of the company’s point-of-sale software, installment payments, and other value-added services, like shipping and financing.
Finally, Mahaney writes that a recent RBC survey of consumer holiday shopping behavior finds declining buyer interest in traditional retailers like Amazon.com (AMZN),Walmart (WMT),Target (TGT),Kohl’s (KSS),Macy’s (M), and others. He thinks one reason for that is “the rise of the long tail,” benefiting the kind of independent merchants that often use Shopify’s software. He notes that Shopify already hosts more than 1 million small merchants generating sales of up to $10 million a year.