Inflation remains a cause for concern as data continues to butt heads with the White House and the Fed’s claim that the price hikes will be “transitory.” According to a Nov. 13 report released by Goldman Sachs Economic Research (GS) however, though inflation has already reached a 30-year high, it may still have more to run.
“The US economy largely followed the rapid road to recovery that we expected this year and is on track to round out the recovery next year as most of the remaining effects of the pandemic fade,” the report reads. “But this year also brought a major surprise: a surge in inflation that has already reached a 30-year high and still has further to go.”
The report suggests that this overshoot in inflation is largely attributable to the rise in durable goods prices caused by the persistentsupply chain crunch. Goldman Sachs Economic Research also expects inflationary pressures from wage and rent growth, but this will only keep inflation “moderately above 2%,” in line with the Fed’s updated framework target.
“The current inflation surge will get worse this winter before it gets better, but as supply-constrained categories shift from a transitory inflationary boost to a transitory deflationary drag, we expect core PCE inflation to fall from 4.4% at end-2021 to 2.3% at end-2022,” the report reads.
Goldman also expects the economy to reaccelerate to above a 4% growth rate throughout the next several quarters, citing the reopening of the service sector, consumer spending of pent-up savings, and inventory restocking.
“These forces will contend with a large and steady headwind from diminishing fiscal support that we expect will ultimately leave GDP growth near potential by late 2022,” the report reads.
Tapering timeline
One of the major implications of these inflation expectations is anupdated timelinefor the Fed’s first rate hikes. The report states that Goldman Sachs would be pulling forward its forecast of the timing of the Fed’s first rate hike to July 2022, shortly after tapering ends.
The FOMC is currently scheduled tocompletethe tapering process by mid-June of 2022. Policymakers will meet next in mid-December where they will submit updated economic forecasts and expected policy paths. In September, around half of policymakers believed that a rate hike would not be necessary until 2023.
“Inflation will have run far above target for a while by then, and we think a seamless move from tapering to rate hikes will be the path of least resistance, with a first hike in July and a second in November,” the report reads. “Because we expect growth and inflation to settle down by year-end without a need for aggressive monetary policy tightening, we have penciled in a slower pace of two hikes per year thereafter.”