For CNBC’s Jim Cramer, investors are buying high and selling low by focusing on Disney’s short-term woes rather than on the company’s long-term potential.
The market continues to witness softness in Disney stock. Investors seemed disappointed in last quarter’s results, particularly regarding the addition of Disney+ subscribers.On the day after the earnings report, share price fell 7%.
At the same time, other investors have remained optimistic about the company. One such example is CNBC’s Jim Cramer, host of Mad Money, whoseesreasons to bet on DIS for the long term. Among them are (1) the company's new content investments, (2) the reopening of the parks and (3) the contrarian view in the face of so much negative sentiment.
New content
One key criticism of Disney’s streaming business model are the high costs. The DTC (direct-to-consumer) approach entails large expenses with the production of exclusive content, which is arguably key in attracting and retaining the platform's subscribers.
But Cramer does not seem to view this as a problem, rather as a long-term investment that the market still misunderstands. Disney and peers like Netflix spend a large chunk of their operating income on content production, which often scares off investors and sends them to the exits. But after the content is available and it helps to drive new subscriptions, investors return to buy back the shares when the herd chooses to do the same.
Therefore, by focusing on the short term and ignoring the long term, many investors continue to buy high and sell low – a recipe for disaster over time.
Theme parks
With the reopening of Disney's parks, the company’s financial results should start to resemble those of the pre-pandemic period. Therefore, looking only at the new streaming segment is a bit narrow, as it still represents a small slice of Disney’s revenue – although probably the fastest growing over the long haul.
What analysts say
While many investors remain pessimistic about DIS, many investment banks continue to view the company's long-term growth potential as appealing. This is the case of Morgan Stanley, which reiterated its “overweight” rating of Disney:
“We continue to believe its guidance is achievable, that with streaming scale comes substantial earnings power, and that success is not priced in.”
Our view
We believe that Disney is still a major player in the so-called streaming wars, and one of the few that can effectively compete for market share with companies like Netflix and Amazon. Therefore, a smaller-than-expected addition of users in a single quarter, especially at an inflection point in the COVID-19 crisis, should not be extrapolated too far out into the future.
In our view, one must wait for a series of quarterly reports to understand how Disney+ may fare against its peers. Growth concerns should only come, if at all, after careful analysis of the longer-term trend.