One of Wall Street’s biggest bulls is betting the S&P 500 will continue to gain before a correction in the second half of 2022 once the Federal Reserve begins to raise interest rates.
Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group, said Wednesday on Bloomberg TV he sees the benchmark index powering above 5,000 before an eventual downturn and recovery back to that level at the end of the year.
With the S&P 500 topping record highs into the year end, 2022 is likely to be volatile, Paulsen said.
“A lot of people think we might give some of this back as we enter the new year,” he added. “That could happen, but I think we’re going to maybe go above 5,000 during the first half of the year on excitement that finally we may be moving Covid from a pandemic to an epidemic and on the realization that inflation is moderating.”
Investors are anticipating a drawdown of market gains after the Fed’s rate hikes, but Paulsen said it’s not yet time to “run away from stocks” as long as the 10-year Treasury yield stays below 3%.
“One of the things I think is important for investors to focus on is: rates are going to go up, but until you get back above the 3% level, the history of the stock market is awful encouraging for stock investors,” he said.
Paulsen sees earnings and fundamentals of the economy remaining strong next year. Additionally, he expect prices to moderate thanks to flattening breakevens and commodity prices, but that there may be less belief inflation will return to the Fed’s 2% goal.
“A realization is going to hit us next year that we’re not returning to the Fed’s 2% inflation target,” Paulsen said. “I think the Fed may even adopt the 3% -- they’ll move their inflation target up.”