New weekly jobless claims are expected to fall to the lowest level since March 2020, closing back in on pre-pandemic levels as the rate of new joblessness slowed further.
The Department of Labor is set to release its weekly report on new jobless claims Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here were the main metrics expected from the report, compared to consensus data compiled by Bloomberg:
Initial jobless claims, week ended July 10: 350,000 expected vs. 373,000 during prior week
Continuing claims, week ended July 3: 3.300 million expected vs. 3.339 million during prior week
Initial unemployment claims are set to extend a months-long downward trend and come in below the psychologically important 400,000 level for a third straight week. During the comparable week in mid-July last year, new filings totaled 1.5 million.
The weekly jobless claims numbers help capture the pace of those rendered newly unemployed. However, labor supply shortages have become the primary concern in returning the job market to its pre-pandemic conditions. The National Federation of Independent Business said that a historically elevated 46% of small business owners reported job openings that could not be filled in June, and that a record high of 39% of owners reported raising compensation in order to attract workers. In the Labor Department's latest June jobs report, the labor force participation rate stayed flat even as payroll gains handily exceeded estimates, reflecting an elevated number of workers still yet to reenter the workforce.
And according to the government's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary, the layoffs and discharge rate hit an all-time low of 0.9% in May, further underscoring that the labor market's latest strains have been for lack of supply, not demand.
"It bears a reminder that the U.S. economy is booming with growth, or GDP, soaring. While welcome, this is not without a downside. The reopening of the economy has created unprecedented strains, including strong demand for workers," Mark Hamrick, senior economist and analyst at Bankrate, said in an email. "One doesn’t have to travel very far to find businesses visibly understaffed, some of which are opting to reduce operating hours or output as a less optimal way of adjusting to the worker shortage."
A multitude of factors seen as inhibiting labor supplies are expected to ease by the fall, however, with schools set to reopen to alleviate child care concerns, more vaccinations taking place to help lessen lingering COVID-19 concerns, and enhanced unemployment benefits expiring across states. How quickly these factors drive an increase in labor force participation, however, remains to be seen, and has given monetary policymakers reason to wait and see the incoming data before removing some of their supportive policies for the recovering economy.
"The issue for markets and the Fed ... is that it is not possible to know if these shortages will persist once enhanced unemployment benefits stop in early September — earlier in most Republican-led states — and pressure on child care eases with the full reopening of facilities and schools in the fall," Ian Shepherdson, chief economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, said in a note. "The current situation in the labor market has no precedent, and hence no basis exists for taking a strong position on what will happen next."
"Fortunately, the flexibility of the new monetary policy strategy gives policymakers wide latitude to wait until the underlying labor market position emerges from beneath the COVID distortions," he added.