* Main U.S. indexes modestly red; FANGs, banks underperform
* Energy weakest major S&P sector; healthcare leads gainers
* Euro STOXX 600 index up ~0.2%
* Dollar ~flat; gold, crude, bitcoin fall
* U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield rises to ~1.45%
Dec 15 - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com
U.S. STOCKS CAUTIOUS AHEAD OF FED (0951 EST/1451 GMT)
Wall Street's main indexes are mixed, posting just slight changes. This ahead of the results of the latest FOMC Meeting later in the day in which the Fed might announce a speedier wind-down of its pandemic-era monetary stimulus.
Meanwhile, regarding the Fed laying out a path for the removal of its uber-accommodative policy, Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. equity strategist & head of quantitative research at Credit Suisse Securities, is arguing in a note that the market is already discounting this shift, with futures implying that the 2s-10s yield spread will fall to 20 bps by year-end 2022 from 80 bps today.
Golub goes on to say that there have been positive equity returns in the months leading up to, and following, a Fed rate lift-off, and that the real damage from higher rates tends to happen later in the cycle when tighter policy flattens/inverts the curve.
"While Jay Powell has backed away from the term 'transitory', there is little indication that he believes inflation is sufficiently entrenched to justify inverting the curve/stifling demand. Put differently, we believe the Fed will avoid such restrictive policy, providing continued support for economic growth and risk assets."
Here is where markets stand in early trade:
(Terence Gabriel)
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NASDAQ COMPOSITE'S INTERNAL STRUGGLE INTENSIFIES (0900 EST/1400 GMT)
The Nasdaq Composite ended Tuesday down around 5% from its November 19 record close.
Meanwhile, one measure of internal strength, the Nasdaq New High/New Low (NH/NL) index, has managed to turn up from its early December low of 12.5%. That trough was its lowest reading since early April 2020, and may have signaled washed-out levels. In a constructive turn, the measure has now risen to 21.3%, and is above its 10-day moving average $(DMA.AU)$, which is at 18.2%.
However, another measure of internal strength, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation (McSum), which is based on advancing and declining issues, paints a different picture. It is continuing to sink :
The McSum ended Tuesday at -4,505, which is its lowest level since early April 2020. This measure has now fallen 20 of the past 21 trading days and is still trending down below its 10-DMA.
For the McSum, there is still substantial downside risk before it reaches its December 2018/March 2020 lows in the -5,425/-6,207 area. A decline to the late 2008 trough/support line from 2012 would call for the -6,896/-7,000 area. The support line from 2012 contained the 2018 and 2020 weakness.
Thus, the Nasdaq appears to be at a critical juncture as it now remains to be seen if the McSum can stabilize and turn up with the NH/NL index, or if the NH/NL index will roll over again and join the McSum in a further collapse.
(Terence Gabriel)
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FOR WEDNESDAY'S LIVE MARKETS' POSTS PRIOR TO 0900 EST/1400 GMT - CLICK HERE:
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(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)