“烧钱最猛”的亚马逊：2000亿美元开支，“信心”来自哪？_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

“烧钱最猛”的亚马逊：2000亿美元开支，“信心”来自哪？

21世纪经济报道02-06 19:14

21世纪经济报道记者董静怡美东时间2月5日盘后，亚马逊发布了2025年第四季度财报。其中，两个关键数字引人关注：核心云业务AWS营收同比增长24%，创下十三个季度以来最快增速；同时，公司宣布将在2026年投入约2000亿美元用于资本支出，较2025年约1310亿美元的资本支出大幅跃升。消息公布后，公司盘后股价应声下跌超过11%。资本市场用脚投票的背后，是投资者对短期利润与长期投入之间平衡的疑虑。...

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Jassy）在财报电话会议上花了大量时间解释这笔开支的必要性，强调AI带来的需求是真实的、巨大的。“我们持续看到，新增的AI产能一经部署，就能迅速实现货币化。”安迪·贾西表示，“我们有信心这些投资将产生强劲的投资资本回报率。”这考验着投资者对亚马逊长期战略的耐心。过去，亚马逊曾通过大规模投资物流网络和云基础设施建立起竞争壁垒，现在，它希望用同样的方式赢得AI时代。不同的是，这次竞争更激烈，投入更集中，而回报周期可能更长。整体来看，亚马逊最新季度的财报还算亮眼。2025年第四季度，亚马逊实现营收2134亿美元，同比增长14%，高于市场预期的2113亿美元。净利润212亿美元，与上年同期的200亿美元相比增长6%。尽管利润增速可观，但值得注意的是，四季度每股摊薄收益为1.95美元，略低于市场预期的1.97美元，这成为盘后股价承压的原因之一。分业务板块看，北美电商业务仍是收入基本盘，四季度贡献1271亿美元营收，同比增长10%；国际业务收入507亿美元，剔除汇率影响后同比增长11%。云服务AWS是这份财报中最亮眼的部分。从全年看，AWS贡献了1287亿美元的收入，占公司总收入约18%，却贡献了公司超过60%的营业利润，是无可争议的“利润引擎”。第四季度，AWS销售额同比增长24%，达到356亿美元。这一增速不仅超过市场预期，也是该业务自2022年底以来的最快增长。相比之下，亚马逊AWS的竞争对手谷歌云和微软Azure在去年第四季度的销售额分别增长了48%和39%。不过，安迪·贾西在财报电话会议中强调，AWS现在的年化营收运行率已达到1420亿美元，“在这基础上实现24%的同比增长，与我们的竞争对手在一个明显较小的基数上实现更高百分比的增长是截然不同的。我们增加的增量收入和容量比其他人都要多。”他还透露，AWS的积压订单激增40%，达到2440亿美元。这意味着未来收入的能见度极高，为持续增长提供了保障。增长的驱动力是双重的。一方面，企业客户持续将其核心IT基础设施现代化并迁移上云；另一方面，生成式人工智能的需求正在成为新的、爆炸性的增长点。贾西将其比做“杠铃状”的分布。而未来最大、最持久的市场，将来自“杠铃的中间部分”，即所有企业将AI深度融入其核心生产流程的应用。贾西认为，这一部分的需求“绝大部分尚未到来”，暗示增长空间依然广阔。为了抓住这波浪潮，亚马逊在过去一年构建了一个多维度的AI竞争力体系。在模型层，它与领先的AI公司Anthropic建立了深度绑定合作，斥资110亿美元启用了名为“Project Rainier”的专属AI数据中心，专门用于大规模训练和运行来自Anthropic的下一代大模型。在硬件层，为了打破高端AI芯片的供应限制和成本桎梏，亚马逊的自研芯片战略已初见成效。为此，亚马逊大力推广其自研芯片Trainium，已经交付了超过140万个Trainium2芯片，最新发布的Trainium 3芯片性价比提升40%，预计到2026年年中的产能“几乎全部被预订”。这些举措提升了亚马逊的技术护城河，是其在激烈竞争中不掉队的基础。但保持增长仍需要持续投入，这也直接引向了那份震惊市场的2000亿美元支出计划。财报发布后，市场关注的焦点迅速转移：亚马逊宣布预计2026年资本支出将达到惊人的2000亿美元。这一数字超过了谷歌母公司Alphabet，接近Meta今年预计支出规模的两倍，堪称科技巨头中“烧钱最猛”的一家。2000亿美元花在哪？贾西明确表示，这2000亿美元绝大部分将用于AWS，特别是AI基础设施，包括数据中心、芯片和电力容量，同时还有对自研芯片、低轨卫星网络等关键项目的持续投入。他试图用AWS过往的成功经验来安抚投资者，称这不是“唐吉诃德式盲目追求营收”，公司“有信心”这些投资将带来强劲的资本回报率。但巨额的资本开支正迅速消耗公司的现金流。财报显示，亚马逊过去十二个月的自由现金流从一年前的382亿美元骤降至112亿美元，该公司解释称，这主要是由于扣除销售和激励收益后的物业和设备购置支出同比激增了507亿美元。除了AI，亚马逊首席财务官布莱恩·奥尔萨夫斯基（Brian Olsavsky）还在电话会上表示，来自低轨卫星项目的成本将对2026年第一季度的营业利润构成压力，公司给出的第一季度营业利润指引区间是165亿～215亿美元，中值显著低于市场预期。市场对此反应谨慎，投资者更担忧的是资本效率与回报周期。尽管贾西强调“新增算力能快速变现”，但AI商业化仍处于早期阶段，如此激进的扩张策略无疑增加了财务风险。财报发布后，亚马逊股价在盘后交易中大幅下跌超过11%。回溯过去一年，亚马逊的战略重心已明显向AI倾斜。除了数据中心投资，公司还在组织架构上做出调整，将更多资源向AWS和广告业务倾斜。与此同时，公司持续推进成本优化，就在财报发布前，亚马逊继2025年10月裁员1.4万人后再次宣布裁1.6万人，主要集中在非核心和支持部门，以腾挪资源支持高优先级项目。这种“开源节流、押注未来”的打法，在头部几个科技巨头中都有体现。但当前的竞争格局更为复杂，微软与OpenAI的深度绑定、谷歌的全栈AI布局，以及英伟达等芯片厂商对算力供应链的控制，都让这场基础设施竞赛的门槛和不确定性陡增。而当前，市场已对科技巨头们近乎疯狂的巨额投入高度敏感，投资者们在用脚投票，评估这场豪赌的风险。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}