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记住原则
记住原则
·
02-15 13:54
还好，只是写代码的事
Anthropic掌门人：AI技术正处于临界点，未来2-3年将决定人类未来
未来2-3年将决定人类未来两百年的走向。
Anthropic掌门人：AI技术正处于临界点，未来2-3年将决定人类未来
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记住原则
记住原则
·
2024-08-26
$拼多多(PDD)$
拼多多实际价值，只能在10美元附近，原因很简单，低价策略已经发展到接近极限，但是天天还在说投建，就是不分红，秉承着中概股的尿性，骨子带来的不会改
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记住原则
记住原则
·
2024-08-22
$中赣通信(02545)$
耐心等待，0.01时，我来托市
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记住原则
·
2024-07-24
没用了，上证指数已经不再可以做参考，因为韭菜早就不相信指数了，新一代的韭菜，如果想吸引他们，必须真金白银，不能有一点点虚假，就这么现实，一不会关心题材，二不会研究行情，三不会关心经济，这批韭菜是钢韭菜，不能割，倒逼上市公司实质做好，不过，时间有点长，20年后大盘会迎来上涨，真真的牛市
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记住原则
记住原则
·
2024-07-22
这样的企业早死早超生
非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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记住原则
·
2024-07-07
茅塞顿开，持有就对了
非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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·
2024-07-07
穷人扎堆！这个提法很好，的确穷人都爱扎堆，比如我曾经买过的所谓高科技
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记住原则
·
2024-06-28
$Faraday Future(FFIE)$
骗老外吧，随便，反正中国人不会买
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·
2024-06-22
直接没看懂，先推荐个入门
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·
2024-06-19
特斯拉
特斯拉跌超1%，遭知名对冲基金经理唱衰只值15美元
他预计特斯拉今年的盈利可能会下降50%。
特斯拉跌超1%，遭知名对冲基金经理唱衰只值15美元
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17:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Anthropic掌门人：AI技术正处于临界点，未来2-3年将决定人类未来","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2611114263","media":"智通财经网","summary":"未来2-3年将决定人类未来两百年的走向。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>在AI技术指数级爆发的前夜，Anthropic掌门人Dario Amodei抛出了震撼业界的预测：<strong>我们正处于“指数增长的黄昏”，最快到2026年，人类将迎来由数万个顶尖大脑组成的“数据中心里的天才国度”。</strong></p><p>近日，大模型独角兽Anthropic首席执行官Dario Amodei在与Dwarkesh Patel的深度访谈中，罕见地披露了公司惊人的营收增速预期，并对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AGBK\">AGI</a>（通用人工智能）的时间表、算力投资的财务逻辑以及地缘政治风险进行了详尽阐述。Amodei认为，AI技术正处于从量变到质变的临界点，未来2-3年将决定人类未来两百年的走向。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9885410242f0a11585f24a645146fa05\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"563\"/></p><p>（Anthropic首席执行官Dario Amodei作客Dwarkesh Patel播客）</p><p>AI 正处于指数级增长末期</p><p>Dario Amodei在访谈伊始就指出，我们已逼近 AI 指数增长曲线的尾声，而世界尚未充分感知这场质变。</p><p>从 GPT-1 到如今的专业级模型，AI 完成了从 “聪慧高中生” 到 “博士水准” 的跃迁，编程、数学等领域甚至实现超越，底层扩展定律从未失效，算力与数据的投入仍在持续兑现明确收益。</p><p>指数增长的魔力藏在末期的爆发里。Dario表示，Anthropic 年营收 10 倍的跨越式增长，Claude Code 让工程师生产力倍增，模型上下文长度与泛化能力的快速突破，都在印证 “终点临近” 的信号。<strong>这场增长不只是参数的堆砌，更是智能本质的升级 —— 从数据拟合到自主泛化，AI 正在补齐最后几块关键能力拼图。</strong></p><p>“数据中心里的天才国度”：重新定义2026</p><p>Amodei在访谈中提出了一个极具冲击力的概念——“数据中心里的天才国度”（A Country of Geniuses in a Datacenter）。他回顾了过去三年的技术演进，认为AI模型已从“聪明的高中生”进化为“专业人士”。</p><p>他大胆预测，<strong>到2026年或2027年，单一模型所展现出的智力水平、知识深度和逻辑推理能力，将不仅等同于一名诺贝尔奖得主，而是等同于数万名顶尖天才协同工作的集合体。</strong></p><p>对于这一时间表的确定性，Amodei表现出极高的信心：</p><p>“对于10年内实现这一愿景，我有90%的把握；而对于这在未来1-2年内发生，我认为是50/50的可能性。”</p><p>他指出，唯一的变数可能来自地缘政治灾难（如芯片供应链中断）或社会剧烈动荡。</p><p>营收狂飙：从1亿到100亿美元的“恐怖”曲线</p><p>市场最为关注的财务数据方面，Amodei披露了Anthropic令人咋舌的增长曲线。他透露，<strong>公司营收正经历着“怪异的每年10倍增长”（bizarre 10x per year growth）。</strong>Amodei在访谈中直言：</p><p>“2023年，我们从0增长到1亿美元；2024年，从1亿美元增长到10亿美元；而2025年，我们预计将达到90亿至100亿美元。这一指数级增长大致符合我的预期，甚至在今年第一个月，我们又增加了数十亿美元的营收。”</p><p>Amodei强调，尽管受到经济扩散速度（Diffusion）滞后的影响，企业采纳AI需要经过法律审核、合规检查等漫长流程，但技术本身的能力提升正在推动这一疯狂的增长曲线。</p><p>算力豪赌与破产风险：CEO的财务平衡术</p><p>面对如此确定的技术前景，为何不现在就举债万亿美元囤积芯片？Amodei给出了极具现实意义的财务解释：算力扩容必须与收入增长和预测精度挂钩，否则将面临毁灭性风险。</p><p>“<strong>如果我预测2027年会有万亿级需求，从而提前购买了价值1万亿美元的算力，但只要需求爆发的时间晚了一年，或者增长率稍微从10倍降至5倍，没有任何对冲手段能阻止公司破产</strong>。”Amodei解释道，这种基于“对数收益定律”的投资回报需要精密核算。</p><p>他指出，Anthropic目前的策略是“负责任地激进”，即投入的算力规模足以捕捉巨大的上行空间，但如果市场爆发推迟，公司凭借其企业级业务的高毛利和现金流，依然能够生存。</p><p>他预计，<strong>Anthropic有望在2028年左右实现盈利，届时AI将成为历史上盈利能力最强的产业之一。</strong></p><p>软件工程的终局：从写代码到取代工程师</p><p>在具体落地场景上，Amodei将编程视为AI最先攻克的堡垒。他将AI在软件工程领域的进化分为三个阶段：</p><p><strong>第一阶段：</strong>模型编写90%的代码行（已实现）。</p><p><strong>第二阶段：</strong>模型处理90%的端到端任务，如修复Bug、配置集群、撰写文档。</p><p><strong>第三阶段：</strong>模型具备“职场经验”，能够理解复杂代码库的上下文并设定技术方向。</p><p>Amodei预测，<strong>在1-3年内，AI将能够胜任高级软件工程师的所有职责。</strong></p><p>“这并不意味着工程师会失业，而是生产力的巨大爆发。现在的模型能做到的不仅是补全代码，而是直接接管GPU内核编写等高难度任务。”</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-14 17:56 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1405540.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在AI技术指数级爆发的前夜，Anthropic掌门人Dario Amodei抛出了震撼业界的预测：我们正处于“指数增长的黄昏”，最快到2026年，人类将迎来由数万个顶尖大脑组成的“数据中心里的天才国度”。近日，大模型独角兽Anthropic首席执行官Dario Amodei在与Dwarkesh Patel的深度访谈中，罕见地披露了公司惊人的营收增速预期，并对AGI（通用人工智能）的时间表、算力投资...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1405540.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9885410242f0a11585f24a645146fa05","relate_stocks":{"AI":"C3.ai, Inc."},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1405540.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2611114263","content_text":"在AI技术指数级爆发的前夜，Anthropic掌门人Dario Amodei抛出了震撼业界的预测：我们正处于“指数增长的黄昏”，最快到2026年，人类将迎来由数万个顶尖大脑组成的“数据中心里的天才国度”。近日，大模型独角兽Anthropic首席执行官Dario Amodei在与Dwarkesh Patel的深度访谈中，罕见地披露了公司惊人的营收增速预期，并对AGI（通用人工智能）的时间表、算力投资的财务逻辑以及地缘政治风险进行了详尽阐述。Amodei认为，AI技术正处于从量变到质变的临界点，未来2-3年将决定人类未来两百年的走向。（Anthropic首席执行官Dario Amodei作客Dwarkesh Patel播客）AI 正处于指数级增长末期Dario Amodei在访谈伊始就指出，我们已逼近 AI 指数增长曲线的尾声，而世界尚未充分感知这场质变。从 GPT-1 到如今的专业级模型，AI 完成了从 “聪慧高中生” 到 “博士水准” 的跃迁，编程、数学等领域甚至实现超越，底层扩展定律从未失效，算力与数据的投入仍在持续兑现明确收益。指数增长的魔力藏在末期的爆发里。Dario表示，Anthropic 年营收 10 倍的跨越式增长，Claude Code 让工程师生产力倍增，模型上下文长度与泛化能力的快速突破，都在印证 “终点临近” 的信号。这场增长不只是参数的堆砌，更是智能本质的升级 —— 从数据拟合到自主泛化，AI 正在补齐最后几块关键能力拼图。“数据中心里的天才国度”：重新定义2026Amodei在访谈中提出了一个极具冲击力的概念——“数据中心里的天才国度”（A Country of Geniuses in a Datacenter）。他回顾了过去三年的技术演进，认为AI模型已从“聪明的高中生”进化为“专业人士”。他大胆预测，到2026年或2027年，单一模型所展现出的智力水平、知识深度和逻辑推理能力，将不仅等同于一名诺贝尔奖得主，而是等同于数万名顶尖天才协同工作的集合体。对于这一时间表的确定性，Amodei表现出极高的信心：“对于10年内实现这一愿景，我有90%的把握；而对于这在未来1-2年内发生，我认为是50/50的可能性。”他指出，唯一的变数可能来自地缘政治灾难（如芯片供应链中断）或社会剧烈动荡。营收狂飙：从1亿到100亿美元的“恐怖”曲线市场最为关注的财务数据方面，Amodei披露了Anthropic令人咋舌的增长曲线。他透露，公司营收正经历着“怪异的每年10倍增长”（bizarre 10x per year growth）。Amodei在访谈中直言：“2023年，我们从0增长到1亿美元；2024年，从1亿美元增长到10亿美元；而2025年，我们预计将达到90亿至100亿美元。这一指数级增长大致符合我的预期，甚至在今年第一个月，我们又增加了数十亿美元的营收。”Amodei强调，尽管受到经济扩散速度（Diffusion）滞后的影响，企业采纳AI需要经过法律审核、合规检查等漫长流程，但技术本身的能力提升正在推动这一疯狂的增长曲线。算力豪赌与破产风险：CEO的财务平衡术面对如此确定的技术前景，为何不现在就举债万亿美元囤积芯片？Amodei给出了极具现实意义的财务解释：算力扩容必须与收入增长和预测精度挂钩，否则将面临毁灭性风险。“如果我预测2027年会有万亿级需求，从而提前购买了价值1万亿美元的算力，但只要需求爆发的时间晚了一年，或者增长率稍微从10倍降至5倍，没有任何对冲手段能阻止公司破产。”Amodei解释道，这种基于“对数收益定律”的投资回报需要精密核算。他指出，Anthropic目前的策略是“负责任地激进”，即投入的算力规模足以捕捉巨大的上行空间，但如果市场爆发推迟，公司凭借其企业级业务的高毛利和现金流，依然能够生存。他预计，Anthropic有望在2028年左右实现盈利，届时AI将成为历史上盈利能力最强的产业之一。软件工程的终局：从写代码到取代工程师在具体落地场景上，Amodei将编程视为AI最先攻克的堡垒。他将AI在软件工程领域的进化分为三个阶段：第一阶段：模型编写90%的代码行（已实现）。第二阶段：模型处理90%的端到端任务，如修复Bug、配置集群、撰写文档。第三阶段：模型具备“职场经验”，能够理解复杂代码库的上下文并设定技术方向。Amodei预测，在1-3年内，AI将能够胜任高级软件工程师的所有职责。“这并不意味着工程师会失业，而是生产力的巨大爆发。现在的模型能做到的不仅是补全代码，而是直接接管GPU内核编写等高难度任务。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":21,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":342746577924208,"gmtCreate":1724683529704,"gmtModify":1724683531591,"author":{"id":"231597644458124","authorId":"231597644458124","name":"记住原则","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"231597644458124","idStr":"231597644458124"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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骗老外吧，随便，反正中国人不会买","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/321832544407864","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3359,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":319394780737760,"gmtCreate":1719007173902,"gmtModify":1719007175571,"author":{"id":"231597644458124","authorId":"231597644458124","name":"记住原则","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"231597644458124","idStr":"231597644458124"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"直接没看懂，先推荐个入门","listText":"直接没看懂，先推荐个入门","text":"直接没看懂，先推荐个入门","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/319394780737760","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2731,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":318308168188128,"gmtCreate":1718750576887,"gmtModify":1718750578747,"author":{"id":"231597644458124","authorId":"231597644458124","name":"记住原则","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"231597644458124","idStr":"231597644458124"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"特斯拉","listText":"特斯拉","text":"特斯拉","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/318308168188128","repostId":"1116622541","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116622541","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1718718935,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1116622541?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-06-18 21:55","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉跌超1%，遭知名对冲基金经理唱衰只值15美元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116622541","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"他预计特斯拉今年的盈利可能会下降50%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>周二，昨日大涨的特斯拉出现回调，截至发稿跌超1%。消息面上，知名对冲基金经理莱坎德(Per Lekander)日前警告称，特斯拉的股价被高估了，可能很快就会面临大幅回调。他认为特斯拉已经是一支没有增长前景的股票，预期市盈率应该只有10倍，目标股价是15美元。他预计特斯拉今年的盈利可能会下降50%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/155cb75a018930a30e1590f75e16f6bd\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>此外，特斯拉公司还面临着多起正在进行的诉讼以及董事会的巨额薪酬方案的风险。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉跌超1%，遭知名对冲基金经理唱衰只值15美元</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉跌超1%，遭知名对冲基金经理唱衰只值15美元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-06-18 21:55</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>周二，昨日大涨的特斯拉出现回调，截至发稿跌超1%。消息面上，知名对冲基金经理莱坎德(Per Lekander)日前警告称，特斯拉的股价被高估了，可能很快就会面临大幅回调。他认为特斯拉已经是一支没有增长前景的股票，预期市盈率应该只有10倍，目标股价是15美元。他预计特斯拉今年的盈利可能会下降50%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/155cb75a018930a30e1590f75e16f6bd\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>此外，特斯拉公司还面临着多起正在进行的诉讼以及董事会的巨额薪酬方案的风险。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/340d3c04436bbba1df239d6d4a7e3fd2","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116622541","content_text":"周二，昨日大涨的特斯拉出现回调，截至发稿跌超1%。消息面上，知名对冲基金经理莱坎德(Per Lekander)日前警告称，特斯拉的股价被高估了，可能很快就会面临大幅回调。他认为特斯拉已经是一支没有增长前景的股票，预期市盈率应该只有10倍，目标股价是15美元。他预计特斯拉今年的盈利可能会下降50%。此外，特斯拉公司还面临着多起正在进行的诉讼以及董事会的巨额薪酬方案的风险。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2691,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}