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- 随风而逝的记忆随风而逝的记忆
  ·2023-02-03
  鲍威尔真的是很坏的玩意 p
  市场认为鲍威只是在“虚张声势”，这会带来多大的风险？
  繁荣的市场和更宽松的金融条件可能会强化美联储的加息决心。
  市场认为鲍威只是在“虚张声势”，这会带来多大的风险？
  1,593 评论
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- 随风而逝的记忆随风而逝的记忆
  ·2020-01-31
  $百信国际(00574)$出货留纪念
  3,703 评论
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- 随风而逝的记忆随风而逝的记忆
  ·2019-06-12
  $Histogenics Corporation(HSGX)$ 卖了先
  3,359 评论
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- 随风而逝的记忆随风而逝的记忆
  ·2018-12-27
  $小米集团-W(01810)$ 辣鸡中的战斗机，浪费我半天多时间，再也不关注了，差劲到死，[弱][生气]
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- 随风而逝的记忆随风而逝的记忆
  ·2018-12-11
  $坛金矿业(00621)$ 留个图给烧包一下
  4,537 评论
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- 随风而逝的记忆随风而逝的记忆
  ·2018-10-15
  $三倍做空天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(DGAZ)$ 真是稀烂啊，ng多头吃壮阳药了吗？赶紧阳痿吧，😄……
  3,410 1
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- 随风而逝的记忆随风而逝的记忆
  ·2018-10-11
  $三倍做空天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(DGAZ)$ 这次飓风有些报道说是热带风暴，看看今晚库存数据后的走向了。
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- 随风而逝的记忆随风而逝的记忆
  ·2018-10-08
  $三倍做空天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(DGAZ)$ 跌破13.8准备进仓看看。
  3,114 2
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- 随风而逝的记忆随风而逝的记忆
  ·2018-10-02
  $三倍做空天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(DGAZ)$ 已经超出9月19日晚上说期货预料要上3了，多头比较狠，看媒体报道库存比五年水平要低，并且预计未来需求旺。但是也有媒体说要跌回2.7左右，现在已经找不到头绪了。
  4,028 8
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- 随风而逝的记忆随风而逝的记忆
  ·2018-09-27
  $港亚控股(01723)$ 很牛啊……
  3,625 评论
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p","listText":"鲍威尔真的是很坏的玩意 p","text":"鲍威尔真的是很坏的玩意 p","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/622616092","repostId":"1161619758","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161619758","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1675433123,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1161619758?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-02-03 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Coronado表示，<b>但实际上他听起来更积极、更乐观。</b></p><p>押注美联储“虚张声势”的市场</p><p>市场和美联储的分析并没有缩小，鲍威尔再怎么强调不降息也没用，<b>市场坚定地押注美联储在“虚张声势”。</b></p><p><b>目前，市场预计通胀将更快地缓和，如果未来的数据证明了这一点，美联储可能考虑更早地降息。</b></p><p>加息后，美联储联邦基金利率目标区间上调到4.50%至4.75%之间，大多数官员表示美联储考虑将利率水平提高至5％以上。然而，交易员们押注，美联储的政策方向将从今年年中开始进一步转向鸽派。</p><p>此外，尽管美联储预计今年不太可能降息，但许多投资者对美联储是否会维持更高利率持怀疑态度。他们认为，去年的加息将使经济大幅放缓，同时导致失业率攀升。另一部分交易员认为，通胀率将在不出现严重衰退的情况下迅速下降，从而使美联储得以放松。市场预计美联储到年底将较6月利率峰值降息50个基点。</p><p>市场押注美联储降息的狂热情绪推动风险资产走高，今年以来美股和美债价格大幅上涨。</p><p>高盛非盈利科技指数在2022年下跌后，截至本周三，年内涨幅达28%；同时高盛追踪的一项罗素3000指数中最被做空股票的指数，在去年创下有史以来最差年度表现后今年迄今的回报率高达15%；加密行业也是如此，尽管面临行业裁员、监管审查等重重挑战，加密货币今年仍飙升了40%以上。</p><p>市场过于乐观的风险</p><p>然而，市场过于乐观背后也隐藏着风险，<b>尤其是考虑到通胀回落可能会停滞。</b></p><p>德意志银行全球经济研究主管Peter Hooper表示：</p><blockquote>那些倾向于寻找乐观东西的人选择了这些部分，但他们可能没有充分考虑整体信息的重点，美联储正在努力沟通，希望“再加息几次” ，达到明显的更具限制性的水平。</blockquote><p><b>另一方面，如果市场因为不理解或不相信美联储会将高利率维持更长时间，而预计更快转向降息，这可能会迫使美联储提高利率。</b></p><p>芝加哥联邦储备银行的一项金融状况指数自去年10月以来持续下降，而读数下降表明市场和银行系统的金融状况有所放松。通常，当美联储提高利率时，金融状况就会收紧。</p><p>上个月，美联储理事沃勒曾警告称，如果更宽松的金融条件导致经济活动重新加速，美联储则需要做更多的事（加息）。</p><p>马里兰州大学经济学家、纽约联储经济顾问委员会成员Kalemli-Özcan也警告称：</p><blockquote><b>繁荣的市场和更宽松的金融条件可能会强化美联储的加息决心，</b>如果股票市场持续走高，那么这意味着未来经济会增长，人们开始增加支出。一切都变得美好，这是美联储最不希望看到的。</blockquote></body></html>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>市场认为鲍威只是在“虚张声势”，这会带来多大的风险？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n市场认为鲍威只是在“虚张声势”，这会带来多大的风险？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-02-03 22:05 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3681149><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：赵颖当美联储主席鲍威尔举行2023年首次货币政策新闻发布会时，其发言几乎与自美联储去年开始加息以来使用的“剧本”完全相似。“坚定地致力于让通胀回落，需要在一段时期内维持货币政策的限制性”，并且本次鲍威尔强调，2023年不会降息。但市场对这番言论并不买账，押注美联储在加息方面“虚张声势”，其狂热情绪带动风险资产快速走高。然而，过于乐观也存在风险风险，当通胀下降不及预期，金融条件变得更宽松，可能...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3681149\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62dafa537afba542bdc43da1b85df8b4","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3681149","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1161619758","content_text":"作者：赵颖当美联储主席鲍威尔举行2023年首次货币政策新闻发布会时，其发言几乎与自美联储去年开始加息以来使用的“剧本”完全相似。“坚定地致力于让通胀回落，需要在一段时期内维持货币政策的限制性”，并且本次鲍威尔强调，2023年不会降息。但市场对这番言论并不买账，押注美联储在加息方面“虚张声势”，其狂热情绪带动风险资产快速走高。然而，过于乐观也存在风险风险，当通胀下降不及预期，金融条件变得更宽松，可能会强化美联储的加息决心。更为乐观的鲍威尔2月2日，美联储公布最新的利率决议，宣布将利率上调25个基点，这标志着美联储从近几个月来大幅度加息回归到更常规的紧缩步伐。在随后的新闻发布会上，鲍威尔对记者表示：我们将谨慎地宣布胜利,并发出我们认为比赛已经获胜的信号，但我们还有很长的路要走，我认为我们今年不会降息。尽管鲍威尔驳斥了美联储将在短期内降息，并指出未来将再分别加息25个基点，但他的发言不仅体现出对经济前景更为乐观，而且对美联储控制通胀的结果也更为乐观。鲍威尔的乐观态度是微妙的，而在记者问答环节中，这种乐观态度更为明显。虽然他坚称价格压力仍然高得令人无法接受，但他一再表示反通胀进程正在进行。最重要的是，鲍威尔指出，他看到了一条“道路”，可以将通胀率降至美联储2%的目标，同时不会出现严重的经济下滑或失业率大幅上升。“人们开始认为，鲍威尔可能用像去年12月那样的语气”，前美联储经济学家、现为Macro Policy Perspectives总裁Julia Coronado表示，但实际上他听起来更积极、更乐观。押注美联储“虚张声势”的市场市场和美联储的分析并没有缩小，鲍威尔再怎么强调不降息也没用，市场坚定地押注美联储在“虚张声势”。目前，市场预计通胀将更快地缓和，如果未来的数据证明了这一点，美联储可能考虑更早地降息。加息后，美联储联邦基金利率目标区间上调到4.50%至4.75%之间，大多数官员表示美联储考虑将利率水平提高至5％以上。然而，交易员们押注，美联储的政策方向将从今年年中开始进一步转向鸽派。此外，尽管美联储预计今年不太可能降息，但许多投资者对美联储是否会维持更高利率持怀疑态度。他们认为，去年的加息将使经济大幅放缓，同时导致失业率攀升。另一部分交易员认为，通胀率将在不出现严重衰退的情况下迅速下降，从而使美联储得以放松。市场预计美联储到年底将较6月利率峰值降息50个基点。市场押注美联储降息的狂热情绪推动风险资产走高，今年以来美股和美债价格大幅上涨。高盛非盈利科技指数在2022年下跌后，截至本周三，年内涨幅达28%；同时高盛追踪的一项罗素3000指数中最被做空股票的指数，在去年创下有史以来最差年度表现后今年迄今的回报率高达15%；加密行业也是如此，尽管面临行业裁员、监管审查等重重挑战，加密货币今年仍飙升了40%以上。市场过于乐观的风险然而，市场过于乐观背后也隐藏着风险，尤其是考虑到通胀回落可能会停滞。德意志银行全球经济研究主管Peter Hooper表示：那些倾向于寻找乐观东西的人选择了这些部分，但他们可能没有充分考虑整体信息的重点，美联储正在努力沟通，希望“再加息几次” ，达到明显的更具限制性的水平。另一方面，如果市场因为不理解或不相信美联储会将高利率维持更长时间，而预计更快转向降息，这可能会迫使美联储提高利率。芝加哥联邦储备银行的一项金融状况指数自去年10月以来持续下降，而读数下降表明市场和银行系统的金融状况有所放松。通常，当美联储提高利率时，金融状况就会收紧。上个月，美联储理事沃勒曾警告称，如果更宽松的金融条件导致经济活动重新加速，美联储则需要做更多的事（加息）。马里兰州大学经济学家、纽约联储经济顾问委员会成员Kalemli-Özcan也警告称：繁荣的市场和更宽松的金融条件可能会强化美联储的加息决心，如果股票市场持续走高，那么这意味着未来经济会增长，人们开始增加支出。一切都变得美好，这是美联储最不希望看到的。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1593,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":912736395,"gmtCreate":1580436009217,"gmtModify":1704341573961,"author":{"id":"319617370755397","authorId":"319617370755397","name":"随风而逝的记忆","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/9520b571beed59a5c70e48fc5f11a26b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"319617370755397","authorIdStr":"319617370755397"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00574\">$百信国际(00574)$</a>出货留纪念","listText":"<a 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