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两只大老虎
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两只大老虎
两只大老虎
·
09-01
屁股决定脑袋，认知缺陷牛市也救不了
阿里财报反常识：阿里云ai收益主要卖给自己 gmv不涨crm涨懂的都懂
来源：77和她的韭菜朋友们阿里就算涨了又如何？我刚早上看了下阿里财报，我发现有几个很奇怪的地方，就是阿里的gmv没有怎么长，但是crm收入同比增长了10%，这说明什么？然后我又问它阿里云ai收益的增长主要是什么，买方是谁？它告诉我是公共云业务带来的，主要买方是阿里自己（配图2）我觉得你们可以把阿里财报下载下来，一共25页，你自己找到反常识的部分，问问ai！
阿里财报反常识：阿里云ai收益主要卖给自己 gmv不涨crm涨懂的都懂
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两只大老虎
两只大老虎
·
09-01
早呢
@hojiguo：
$美团-W(03690)$ 跌到底了
$美团-W(03690)$ 跌到底了
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两只大老虎
两只大老虎
·
08-26
美团业务格局太小，以前没人看得上，自以为是村霸了 [开心]
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两只大老虎
两只大老虎
·
08-22
$美团-W(03690)$
垃圾，到处惹事，人人喊打
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两只大老虎
两只大老虎
·
08-17
$德琪医药-B(06996)$
打的新股，到今天终于出水，煎熬啊[流泪]
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两只大老虎
两只大老虎
·
08-14
外卖这点品类有多少利润，美团要再撘个电商平台和物流体系，拓展全品类吗？ 美团所谓的护城河，更多是虚幻和自吹。在真枪实弹面前，钱、物、人，拿什么去和阿里拼？
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两只大老虎
两只大老虎
·
07-14
往好了想，帮助缓解就业压力
外卖战升级，摩根大通提问：值得吗？
摩根大通对这场愈演愈烈的外卖补贴竞争，进行了深度剖析。预计未来3到6个月，三家公司的股价都将因盈利预期下调而面临压力。面对如此惨烈的“烧钱”，摩通提出了一个核心问题：这笔投资值得吗？摩通认为，美团极有可能维持其市场领导地位，但市场份额可能会有所下滑。报告估计，到2030年，即时零售GMV的56%将来自食品饮料、烟酒和日用品，这些正是传统电商的重要品类。
外卖战升级，摩根大通提问：值得吗？
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两只大老虎
两只大老虎
·
02-13
摩🐶急了 [开心]
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两只大老虎
两只大老虎
·
02-07
🐶🐶NB
非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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两只大老虎
两只大老虎
·
01-25
$德琪医药-B(06996)$
苟延残喘到2025，该收摊了吧[喷血]
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>也是，我不喜欢刘强东，我实际接触的京东的两个男的，风格和刘强东也类似，所以我不看他们的股票有什么问题吗？</p><p>我刚早上看了下阿里财报，我发现有几个很奇怪的地方，就是阿里的gmv没有怎么长，但是crm收入同比增长了10%，这说明什么？结合我上篇分享的我们分群里一个电商运营分享的做淘宝电商的感悟，再结合年初一个阿里高管想让我回阿里打工时透露的信息，蒋凡的战略是保大卖家，保核心品类的头部卖家，保供应链优势的卖家等，说明这些增长来自于商家对于阿里新的ai投放工具的积极尝试和投入，而ai优化了阿里商业化流量的变现效率，但是炮灰是谁？懂得都懂！</p><p>其次是经调整净利同比下降18%至335.1亿元，但<span>净利润</span>同比大增76%至423.82亿元？？？</p><p>阿里的财报我是用<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XIACY\">小米</a>内置的一个阅读工具看的，我可以一边看，一边问，它能快速提炼信息整理问题答案给我，我就问了它为啥会有这种反差，然后它告诉我的答案就是封面配图1那个！</p><p>也就是净利润涨这么夸张，是因为处理了投资的Trendyol的股权收益，以及把本地生活业务的收益并入了阿里。</p><p>也就是说阿里电商主站并没有变好！！！</p><p>然后我又问它阿里云ai收益的增长主要是什么，买方是谁？</p><p>它告诉我是公共云业务带来的，主要买方是阿里自己（配图2）</p><p>我觉得你们可以把阿里财报下载下来，一共25页，你自己找到反常识的部分，问问ai！</p><p>涨不代表实际价值，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>这么多年为什么风口都参与了，但是起不来，因为它一直被股价绑架决策。</p><p>我还是更看好王兴这种更务实的管理风格，上次他们的财报电话会，他都说ai投资短期难以见成效这种实在话的人。</p><p>所以的价格最终都要回归价值不是吗，高中就学的，你们忘了？</p><p>只是对于阿里来说如果能在本地生活和即时零售构建壁垒，就不是查理芒格骂的只是没壁垒的零售商了，为此阿里拼了命也会去拿市场份额！</p><p>所以很长一段时间内，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPNGY\">美团</a>面对账面资金比较雄厚的阿里，日子会很难！</p><p>但如果<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">美团</a>赢了呢？这个壁垒将更加牢固，无法再撼动，那时的美团就是真的值钱了！</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20250901095301066d201vrk6gnhq9rb\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20250901095305091d201rpvr2pzujdn\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20250901095317537d201ly77h7i6ja2\"/><p>责任编辑：郝欣煜</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>阿里财报反常识：阿里云ai收益主要卖给自己 gmv不涨crm涨懂的都懂</title>\n<style 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href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250901095317a4ac2c15&s=b\">Web 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">美团</a>和京东则构成挑战。</p><p>策略调整： 鉴于竞争带来的不确定性，摩通下调了对阿里巴巴和美团的目标价，并表示在未来六个月内，更看好数字娱乐板块。但在即时零售领域，其偏好顺序为：阿里巴巴 > 美团 > 京东。</p><p>面对如此惨烈的“烧钱”，摩通提出了一个核心问题：这笔投资值得吗？答案取决于对即时零售市场长期潜力的判断，有两种情景测算：</p><p>乐观情景： 到2030年，中国即时零售行业的商品交易总额(GMV)将达到4万亿元，行业利润将达到810亿。假设折现率为15%，永续增长率为3%，那么这个行业最终的终端价值将高达6750亿。如果为了攫取这巨大的价值，行业每年投入500-800亿人民币，摩根大通认为“the math works”(合理)。</p><p>悲观情景： 如果市场的长期GMV只有上述预测的一半，即2万亿，那么终端价值也将减半至3380亿。在这种情况下，仅第一年行业总亏损就可能高达850亿，这样的投入就显得“aggressive”(激进)。</p><p>在竞争加剧之前，根据iResearch的数据，美团占据了约45%的市场份额，饿了么为21%，京东为5%。摩通认为，美团极有可能维持其市场领导地位，但市场份额可能会有所下滑。美团的核心优势在于其庞大且高效的骑手网络(拥有超过700万注册骑手)和在本地供应链上的先发优势。</p><p>即时零售的发展对美团是100%的增量业务，因为它没有传统的电商业务。但对于阿里巴巴和京东而言，即时零售的增长将不可避免地对其传统的电商业务产生“cannibalization”(蚕食效应)。报告估计，到2030年，即时零售GMV的56%将来自食品饮料、烟酒和日用品，这些正是传统电商的重要品类。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n外卖战升级，摩根大通提问：值得吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-07-13 08:51</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>7月13日，新一轮的“外卖补贴大战”在本周末战火重燃，“免费奶茶”词条登上微博热搜。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>对这场愈演愈烈的外卖补贴竞争，进行了深度剖析。对于投资者而言，核心影响如下：</p><p>竞争升级： <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>于7月2日宣布投入500亿元人民币补贴，将即时零售行业的竞争激烈程度推向新高。这标志着竞争的主动权已转移至资金实力雄厚的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里巴巴</a>。</p><p>短期承压： 这场补贴战在短期内对所有参与者(阿里巴巴、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPNGY\">美团</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>)的盈利都是负面的。预计未来3到6个月，三家公司的股价都将因盈利预期下调而面临压力。</p><p>阿里占优： 阿里巴巴在2025财年拥有接近1000亿元的自由现金流(FCF)，以及在2025年3月底拥有接近6000亿元的现金及现金等价物，在这场消耗战中拥有最充足的弹药。从竞争角度看，这一策略对阿里巴巴有利，而对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">美团</a>和京东则构成挑战。</p><p>策略调整： 鉴于竞争带来的不确定性，摩通下调了对阿里巴巴和美团的目标价，并表示在未来六个月内，更看好数字娱乐板块。但在即时零售领域，其偏好顺序为：阿里巴巴 > 美团 > 京东。</p><p>面对如此惨烈的“烧钱”，摩通提出了一个核心问题：这笔投资值得吗？答案取决于对即时零售市场长期潜力的判断，有两种情景测算：</p><p>乐观情景： 到2030年，中国即时零售行业的商品交易总额(GMV)将达到4万亿元，行业利润将达到810亿。假设折现率为15%，永续增长率为3%，那么这个行业最终的终端价值将高达6750亿。如果为了攫取这巨大的价值，行业每年投入500-800亿人民币，摩根大通认为“the math works”(合理)。</p><p>悲观情景： 如果市场的长期GMV只有上述预测的一半，即2万亿，那么终端价值也将减半至3380亿。在这种情况下，仅第一年行业总亏损就可能高达850亿，这样的投入就显得“aggressive”(激进)。</p><p>在竞争加剧之前，根据iResearch的数据，美团占据了约45%的市场份额，饿了么为21%，京东为5%。摩通认为，美团极有可能维持其市场领导地位，但市场份额可能会有所下滑。美团的核心优势在于其庞大且高效的骑手网络(拥有超过700万注册骑手)和在本地供应链上的先发优势。</p><p>即时零售的发展对美团是100%的增量业务，因为它没有传统的电商业务。但对于阿里巴巴和京东而言，即时零售的增长将不可避免地对其传统的电商业务产生“cannibalization”(蚕食效应)。报告估计，到2030年，即时零售GMV的56%将来自食品饮料、烟酒和日用品，这些正是传统电商的重要品类。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce73f5385a35f0a601bb140fb6ff7bc4","relate_stocks":{"BK4207":"综合性银行","MPNGY":"美团ADR","LU0496365809.HKD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (HKD) INC 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STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0006306889.USD":"SCHRODER ISF US LARGE CAP \"A\" (USD) INC AV","LU0211326755.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157938037","content_text":"7月13日，新一轮的“外卖补贴大战”在本周末战火重燃，“免费奶茶”词条登上微博热搜。摩根大通对这场愈演愈烈的外卖补贴竞争，进行了深度剖析。对于投资者而言，核心影响如下：竞争升级： 阿里巴巴于7月2日宣布投入500亿元人民币补贴，将即时零售行业的竞争激烈程度推向新高。这标志着竞争的主动权已转移至资金实力雄厚的阿里巴巴。短期承压： 这场补贴战在短期内对所有参与者(阿里巴巴、美团、京东)的盈利都是负面的。预计未来3到6个月，三家公司的股价都将因盈利预期下调而面临压力。阿里占优： 阿里巴巴在2025财年拥有接近1000亿元的自由现金流(FCF)，以及在2025年3月底拥有接近6000亿元的现金及现金等价物，在这场消耗战中拥有最充足的弹药。从竞争角度看，这一策略对阿里巴巴有利，而对美团和京东则构成挑战。策略调整： 鉴于竞争带来的不确定性，摩通下调了对阿里巴巴和美团的目标价，并表示在未来六个月内，更看好数字娱乐板块。但在即时零售领域，其偏好顺序为：阿里巴巴 > 美团 > 京东。面对如此惨烈的“烧钱”，摩通提出了一个核心问题：这笔投资值得吗？答案取决于对即时零售市场长期潜力的判断，有两种情景测算：乐观情景： 到2030年，中国即时零售行业的商品交易总额(GMV)将达到4万亿元，行业利润将达到810亿。假设折现率为15%，永续增长率为3%，那么这个行业最终的终端价值将高达6750亿。如果为了攫取这巨大的价值，行业每年投入500-800亿人民币，摩根大通认为“the math works”(合理)。悲观情景： 如果市场的长期GMV只有上述预测的一半，即2万亿，那么终端价值也将减半至3380亿。在这种情况下，仅第一年行业总亏损就可能高达850亿，这样的投入就显得“aggressive”(激进)。在竞争加剧之前，根据iResearch的数据，美团占据了约45%的市场份额，饿了么为21%，京东为5%。摩通认为，美团极有可能维持其市场领导地位，但市场份额可能会有所下滑。美团的核心优势在于其庞大且高效的骑手网络(拥有超过700万注册骑手)和在本地供应链上的先发优势。即时零售的发展对美团是100%的增量业务，因为它没有传统的电商业务。但对于阿里巴巴和京东而言，即时零售的增长将不可避免地对其传统的电商业务产生“cannibalization”(蚕食效应)。报告估计，到2030年，即时零售GMV的56%将来自食品饮料、烟酒和日用品，这些正是传统电商的重要品类。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"03690":1.1,"09618":1.1,"09988":1.1,"BABA":1.1,"JD":1.1,"JPM":1,"MPNGY":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":342,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":403015743148368,"gmtCreate":1739410884510,"gmtModify":1739410885700,"author":{"id":"3459945058874066","authorId":"3459945058874066","name":"两只大老虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf14132572e7946e6b0c1286847d4dea","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3459945058874066","authorIdStr":"3459945058874066"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"摩🐶急了 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