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怀朔朔
怀朔朔
·
2021-06-23
$满帮(YMM)$
蚊子腿
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怀朔朔
怀朔朔
·
2021-06-17
$科济药业-B(02171)$
感谢没中签
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怀朔朔
怀朔朔
·
2021-06-12
冲鸭！发家致富了！
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怀朔朔
怀朔朔
·
2021-06-12
牛
非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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怀朔朔
怀朔朔
·
2021-06-11
Tiger is here！
三孩生育政策爆笑段子汇总
@好男人不包二奶：
今天下午各个微信群达成了空前绝后的话题统一，无论是游戏群媒体群炒股群还是同学群水友群全在聊三娃，思路非常广泛，当然，比思路更广泛的是表情包，潜水一下午收购不少，逗您一乐就点个赞呗。 这个消息发布后群全都炸了 居然是一套组合拳 先满上（指仓位 最大输家杜蕾斯 6胎政策警告 绿化政策配三胎政策 看的更长远 灵魂的疑问 顺口溜都出来了 对王之王 年轻人的想法就是特别赋能 不想当生产队的驴 可以当生产队的猪 大家聊的都挺开心的啊 剧本都不敢这么编 答辩生最惨 有的人已经提前完成任务了 人大点赞 请看下图 请看上图 请看历史上的三胎 买房参考 房子不够不要紧 车座不够不要紧 深谋远虑 三胎概念要从娃娃抓起 一步到位吧 恭喜您找到了TRADE，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解）
三孩生育政策爆笑段子汇总
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怀朔朔
怀朔朔
·
2021-06-11
Tiger is here！
【财富密码】WSB新宠：CLOV，WISH，WEN，SOFI
@荒野侦探：
最早是$游戏驿站(GME)$ ，$AMC院线(AMC)$ ，$黑莓(BB)$ ， 之后是$高斯电子(KOSS)$ ，$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$ ，$Express(EXPR)$ 、$3B家居(BBBY)$ ，$Naked Brand Group Inc(NAKD)$ ， 最新是$Clover Health Corp(CLOV)$ （昨天涨85.8%），$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$ （昨天涨49.9%盘后继续飙升），
【财富密码】WSB新宠：CLOV，WISH，WEN，SOFI
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怀朔朔
怀朔朔
·
2021-06-11
Tiger is here！
以史为鉴，美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响
美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：。1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。
以史为鉴，美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响
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怀朔朔
怀朔朔
·
2021-06-11
Tiger is here！
一张图读懂滴滴招股书：遍布15国，日均单量4100万
6月11日消息，美国当地时间周四，$滴滴出行 $的运营主体小桔快智向美国证券交易委员会提交了IPO招股书，计划在纳斯达克股票市场或纽约证券交易所挂牌上市，股票代码为“DIDI”。根据滴滴披露的数据显示，目前滴滴已经在15个国家的4000多个城市和地区开通业务，年活跃用户数量4.93亿，年活跃司机数量1500万，日均单量4100万，年平台交易总额3410亿元，2018年至2021年Q1累计司机收入6000+亿元。
一张图读懂滴滴招股书：遍布15国，日均单量4100万
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怀朔朔
怀朔朔
·
2021-06-11
这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看
您有一份【粽子礼盒】尚未领取！速来啦~！
@话题虎：
马上就到端午节啦~！ 小话提前祝大家节日快乐了！ 每逢佳节，小话最惦记的就是亲爱的虎友们啦~！ 这次毫无意外，我又去虎娘家里给大家运来了一大批礼物，Duang~Duang~Duang~ 就是精美的7周年粽子礼盒：废话不多说啦~！ 只要三连：评论+转发+点赞！ 就有机会获得一份【粽子礼盒】喔！ 赶快在评论区发表的你的祝福吧！！！[比心] $老虎证券(TIGR)$
您有一份【粽子礼盒】尚未领取！速来啦~！
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即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查</a> 了解）","listText":"今天下午各个微信群达成了空前绝后的话题统一，无论是游戏群媒体群炒股群还是同学群水友群全在聊三娃，思路非常广泛，当然，比思路更广泛的是表情包，潜水一下午收购不少，逗您一乐就点个赞呗。 这个消息发布后群全都炸了 居然是一套组合拳 先满上（指仓位 最大输家杜蕾斯 6胎政策警告 绿化政策配三胎政策 看的更长远 灵魂的疑问 顺口溜都出来了 对王之王 年轻人的想法就是特别赋能 不想当生产队的驴 可以当生产队的猪 大家聊的都挺开心的啊 剧本都不敢这么编 答辩生最惨 有的人已经提前完成任务了 人大点赞 请看下图 请看上图 请看历史上的三胎 买房参考 房子不够不要紧 车座不够不要紧 深谋远虑 三胎概念要从娃娃抓起 一步到位吧 恭喜您找到了TRADE，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查</a> 了解）","text":"今天下午各个微信群达成了空前绝后的话题统一，无论是游戏群媒体群炒股群还是同学群水友群全在聊三娃，思路非常广泛，当然，比思路更广泛的是表情包，潜水一下午收购不少，逗您一乐就点个赞呗。 这个消息发布后群全都炸了 居然是一套组合拳 先满上（指仓位 最大输家杜蕾斯 6胎政策警告 绿化政策配三胎政策 看的更长远 灵魂的疑问 顺口溜都出来了 对王之王 年轻人的想法就是特别赋能 不想当生产队的驴 可以当生产队的猪 大家聊的都挺开心的啊 剧本都不敢这么编 答辩生最惨 有的人已经提前完成任务了 人大点赞 请看下图 请看上图 请看历史上的三胎 买房参考 房子不够不要紧 车座不够不要紧 深谋远虑 三胎概念要从娃娃抓起 一步到位吧 恭喜您找到了TRADE，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解）","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21d80f4e3fdfc9ad22bd8dd7f824b454","width":"1130","height":"599"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd51b3bb89aeb118e8505eae89a9b722","width":"705","height":"870"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3c78011480612cee7365696125f80c3","width":"800","height":"800"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/110267641","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":28,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":746,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181262515,"gmtCreate":1623397128437,"gmtModify":1623397128437,"author":{"id":"3474352388324986","authorId":"3474352388324986","name":"怀朔朔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47691820f67e2ee4f915a61c25fca689","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3474352388324986","authorIdStr":"3474352388324986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here！","listText":"Tiger is here！","text":"Tiger is here！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181262515","repostId":"180747508","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":180747508,"gmtCreate":1623229412300,"gmtModify":1623395130751,"author":{"id":"3480300888703096","authorId":"3480300888703096","name":"荒野侦探","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/676ca151c5979a45c1864347e2da198a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3480300888703096","authorIdStr":"3480300888703096"},"themes":[],"title":"【财富密码】WSB新宠：CLOV，WISH，WEN，SOFI","htmlText":"最早是<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$游戏驿站(GME)$</a> ，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC院线(AMC)$</a> ，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">$黑莓(BB)$</a> ， 之后是<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KOSS\">$高斯电子(KOSS)$</a> ，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a> ，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXPR\">$Express(EXPR)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBBY\">$3B家居(BBBY)$</a> ，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NAKD\">$Naked Brand Group Inc(NAKD)$</a> ， 最新是<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLOV\">$Clover Health Corp(CLOV)$</a> （昨天涨85.8%），<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WISH\">$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$</a> （昨天涨49.9%盘后继续飙升），","listText":"最早是<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$游戏驿站(GME)$</a> ，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC院线(AMC)$</a> ，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">$黑莓(BB)$</a> ， 之后是<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KOSS\">$高斯电子(KOSS)$</a> ，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a> ，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EXPR\">$Express(EXPR)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BBBY\">$3B家居(BBBY)$</a> ，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NAKD\">$Naked Brand Group Inc(NAKD)$</a> ， 最新是<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLOV\">$Clover Health Corp(CLOV)$</a> （昨天涨85.8%），<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WISH\">$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$</a> （昨天涨49.9%盘后继续飙升），","text":"最早是$游戏驿站(GME)$ ，$AMC院线(AMC)$ ，$黑莓(BB)$ ， 之后是$高斯电子(KOSS)$ ，$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$ ，$Express(EXPR)$ 、$3B家居(BBBY)$ ，$Naked Brand Group Inc(NAKD)$ ， 最新是$Clover Health Corp(CLOV)$ （昨天涨85.8%），$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$ （昨天涨49.9%盘后继续飙升），","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edd7cd1d8a76129decfa04a788dc1751","width":"1812","height":"681"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51187c689d07aef1c0d9ed3f4987481d","width":"650","height":"456"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fddbdd5ccae731610f53af225ea14376","width":"1813","height":"423"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/180747508","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":857,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181260124,"gmtCreate":1623396770568,"gmtModify":1623396770568,"author":{"id":"3474352388324986","authorId":"3474352388324986","name":"怀朔朔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47691820f67e2ee4f915a61c25fca689","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3474352388324986","authorIdStr":"3474352388324986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here！","listText":"Tiger is here！","text":"Tiger is here！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181260124","repostId":"1156453091","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156453091","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623333482,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156453091?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 21:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"以史为鉴，美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156453091","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：。1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。","content":"<p>美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。<b>美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。</b>我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：</p>\n<p><b>1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次</b>(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。</p>\n<p><b>1968/06-1971/09</b>：经济陷入衰退，但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在，通胀持续上升，美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。</p>\n<p><b>1973/03-1982/11：</b>粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下，美国经济陷入滞胀，供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败，货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后，未能成功抑制通胀。</p>\n<p><b>1987/08-1991/07：</b>走出滞胀后，美国经济经历了高速增长，但1987年开始经济增速放缓，并出现工资和价格上涨压力，美联储收紧货币政策。</p>\n<p><b>2007/11-2008/09：</b>油价飙升推升通胀，金融危机爆发，美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市，通胀不在其重点关注范围内。</p>\n<p><b>当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似，均为成本推动。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327f6f12c3af30abee8fa0ae334f9763\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"611\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ca353ebcbaf95ba1da0b46a815d5f8b\" tg-width=\"1025\" tg-height=\"853\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。</b>今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平)，但是<b>从CPI指数角度，2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。</b></p>\n<p><b>对于今年通胀的演绎，我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。</b></p>\n<p><b>通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。</b>东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工，芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足，二手车需求剧增，价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据，2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外，5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大，交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%，增幅翻倍。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884ed39a8682a3df05e8411f17f2105c\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"585\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/599b70f4fadb590d0d7b20254d4b1403\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"738\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。</b>美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%)，尽管相对于其它分项，房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%)，但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4)，我们<b>预计受到供给短缺的影响，未来房租将会持续温和地上升</b>。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869c4f313152d3a14769097f150fb674\" tg-width=\"1021\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>通胀预期走势如何?</b></p>\n<p>从消费者的角度，密西根预期通胀率数据显示，2<b>021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5)，但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。</b></p>\n<p>从政策制定者角度，如我们此前报告所述，美联储注重通胀预期的监测，关键指标为<b>共同通胀预期指数(CIE)，CIE为季度数据，预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21708bec0c792eb9299eda62ba3cd077\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"666\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?</b></p>\n<p>我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中，CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2)：<b>通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响，前者较为滞后，后者1个月内即有体现。</b>有趣的是，通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性，关于美债的研究框架，请参考我们此前的报告。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/037d9e565ff952b13c942386e8d08506\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"599\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>风险提示：</b>美联储过快收紧货币政策，地缘政治风险加剧</p>\n<hr>\n<p>恭喜您找到了字母E，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 </a>了解）</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b519142d901e1ef1ff2a2e443798687b\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>以史为鉴，美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n以史为鉴，美国通胀飙升后的演绎与影响\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-10 21:58 北京时间 <a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html><strong>川阅全球宏观</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c3dba7c4b0e443e40fe6df5639434d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492521.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156453091","content_text":"美国东部时间2021年6月10日，美国劳工部发布5月通胀数据。美国5月CPI同比升5.0%、核心CPI同比升3.8%，创2008年8月以来最大增幅。今年年初以来，美国通胀率加速上升，美联储6月议息会议在即，市场上通胀担忧挥之不去。我们回顾了历史上美国通胀的几次飙升，以便更好地理解本次的通胀及其影响：\n1960年以来美国CPI同比破5%出现了4次(图1)。我们对CPI破4%、破5%至回落期间的经济基本面和美联储政策进行了复盘(表1)。\n1968/06-1971/09：经济陷入衰退，但前期大幅政府开支与财政刺激的余温仍在，通胀持续上升，美联储在1970年收紧货币政策以抑制通胀。\n1973/03-1982/11：粮食危机和石油危机的双重打击下，美国经济陷入滞胀，供给冲击与成本推升通胀。政府价格管制失败，货币政策缺乏独立性并且过于滞后，未能成功抑制通胀。\n1987/08-1991/07：走出滞胀后，美国经济经历了高速增长，但1987年开始经济增速放缓，并出现工资和价格上涨压力，美联储收紧货币政策。\n2007/11-2008/09：油价飙升推升通胀，金融危机爆发，美联储货币政策的首要任务在于救市，通胀不在其重点关注范围内。\n当前的通胀和1973-1982年通胀的成因较为相似，均为成本推动。\n\n本次通胀飙升的主要原因在于疫情下的基数效应和供给短缺。今年5月美国CPI录得5.0%(为2008年8月以来的最高水平)，但是从CPI指数角度，2021年5月相对于2019年5月的复合增速仅为2.5%。\n对于今年通胀的演绎，我们重点关注二手车和房租两个分项。\n通胀的主要推力之一为二手车。东南亚疫情恶化下多地芯片厂停工，芯片短缺导致车企减产。新车供应不足，二手车需求剧增，价格飙升(图2)。根据Manheim数据，2021年二手车售价增幅超越新车(图3)。此外，5月其他交通相关的价格涨幅进一步扩大，交通服务价格增幅从4月的5.6%扩大至11.2%，增幅翻倍。\n\n房租价格走势对未来通胀的演绎有重要影响。美国CPI中房租的权重较高(约30%)，尽管相对于其它分项，房租的增速相对温和(今年5月同比增2.2%)，但年初以来增速斜率陡峭化(图4)，我们预计受到供给短缺的影响，未来房租将会持续温和地上升。\n\n通胀预期走势如何?\n从消费者的角度，密西根预期通胀率数据显示，2021年5月美国消费者5年通胀预期从上月的2.7%跳升至3.0%(图5)，但是仍然低于美联储可以容忍的3.5%。\n从政策制定者角度，如我们此前报告所述，美联储注重通胀预期的监测，关键指标为共同通胀预期指数(CIE)，CIE为季度数据，预计2021年二季度的数据将于本月底公布。\n\n未来通胀将会怎样影响资产价格?\n我们复盘了上述四次大通胀中，CPI破4%后不同时间区间内美元、美股和美债收益率的变化(表2)：通胀对于美元、美股存在负面影响，前者较为滞后，后者1个月内即有体现。有趣的是，通胀对于美债收益率的影响不具规律性，关于美债的研究框架，请参考我们此前的报告。\n\n风险提示：美联储过快收紧货币政策，地缘政治风险加剧\n\n恭喜您找到了字母E，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解）","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":483,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181284816,"gmtCreate":1623396640135,"gmtModify":1623396640135,"author":{"id":"3474352388324986","authorId":"3474352388324986","name":"怀朔朔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47691820f67e2ee4f915a61c25fca689","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3474352388324986","authorIdStr":"3474352388324986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tiger is here！","listText":"Tiger is here！","text":"Tiger is here！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181284816","repostId":"1140839418","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140839418","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623382205,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1140839418?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-11 11:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"一张图读懂滴滴招股书：遍布15国，日均单量4100万","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140839418","media":"腾讯科技","summary":"6月11日消息，美国当地时间周四，$滴滴出行 $的运营主体小桔快智向美国证券交易委员会提交了IPO招股书，计划在纳斯达克股票市场或纽约证券交易所挂牌上市，股票代码为“DIDI”。根据滴滴披露的数据显示，目前滴滴已经在15个国家的4000多个城市和地区开通业务，年活跃用户数量4.93亿，年活跃司机数量1500万，日均单量4100万，年平台交易总额3410亿元，2018年至2021年Q1累计司机收入6000+亿元。","content":"<p>6月11日消息，美国当地时间周四，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">滴滴出行</a>的运营主体小桔快智向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）提交了IPO招股书，计划在纳斯达克股票市场或纽约证券交易所挂牌上市，股票代码为“DIDI”。</p>\n<p>根据滴滴披露的数据显示，目前滴滴已经在15个国家的4000多个城市和地区开通业务，年活跃用户数量4.93亿，年活跃司机数量1500万，日均单量4100万，年平台交易总额3410亿元，2018年至2021年Q1累计司机收入6000+亿元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a935c6b681f2f3744604b5596e29cac\" tg-width=\"2100\" tg-height=\"13686\"></p>\n<hr>\n<p>恭喜您找到了字母I，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/181890541\" target=\"_blank\">【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查</a> 了解）<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba72fe98df37f49a4d31b0a0684a03aa\" tg-width=\"214\" tg-height=\"286\"></p>\n<p></p>","source":"txkj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>一张图读懂滴滴招股书：遍布15国，日均单量4100万</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n一张图读懂滴滴招股书：遍布15国，日均单量4100万\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-11 11:30 北京时间 <a href=https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20210611A02NC800><strong>腾讯科技</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>6月11日消息，美国当地时间周四，滴滴出行的运营主体小桔快智向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）提交了IPO招股书，计划在纳斯达克股票市场或纽约证券交易所挂牌上市，股票代码为“DIDI”。\n根据滴滴披露的数据显示，目前滴滴已经在15个国家的4000多个城市和地区开通业务，年活跃用户数量4.93亿，年活跃司机数量1500万，日均单量4100万，年平台交易总额3410亿元，2018年至2021年Q1累计司机...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20210611A02NC800\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9f14473f3e986de32cc80f6fd80b679","relate_stocks":{"DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)"},"source_url":"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20210611A02NC800","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140839418","content_text":"6月11日消息，美国当地时间周四，滴滴出行的运营主体小桔快智向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）提交了IPO招股书，计划在纳斯达克股票市场或纽约证券交易所挂牌上市，股票代码为“DIDI”。\n根据滴滴披露的数据显示，目前滴滴已经在15个国家的4000多个城市和地区开通业务，年活跃用户数量4.93亿，年活跃司机数量1500万，日均单量4100万，年平台交易总额3410亿元，2018年至2021年Q1累计司机收入6000+亿元。\n\n\n恭喜您找到了字母I，参与《老虎大搜查》活动，下帖留言“ Tiger is here” 即可获赠100虎币，如集齐7张图片并留言，还可获赠7周年限定礼盒。（详情请点击【七周年有奖活动】老虎大搜查 了解）","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":786,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181212569,"gmtCreate":1623396009151,"gmtModify":1623396236601,"author":{"id":"3474352388324986","authorId":"3474352388324986","name":"怀朔朔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47691820f67e2ee4f915a61c25fca689","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3474352388324986","authorIdStr":"3474352388324986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181212569","repostId":"183362038","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":183362038,"gmtCreate":1623309076921,"gmtModify":1623310151099,"author":{"id":"3502767768442965","authorId":"3502767768442965","name":"话题虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d418c2def5dc1d094b03270b450f71ce","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3502767768442965","authorIdStr":"3502767768442965"},"themes":[],"title":"您有一份【粽子礼盒】尚未领取！速来啦~！","htmlText":"马上就到端午节啦~！ 小话提前祝大家节日快乐了！ 每逢佳节，小话最惦记的就是亲爱的虎友们啦~！ 这次毫无意外，我又去虎娘家里给大家运来了一大批礼物，Duang~Duang~Duang~ 就是精美的7周年粽子礼盒：废话不多说啦~！ 只要三连：评论+转发+点赞！ 就有机会获得一份【粽子礼盒】喔！ 赶快在评论区发表的你的祝福吧！！！[比心] <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>","listText":"马上就到端午节啦~！ 小话提前祝大家节日快乐了！ 每逢佳节，小话最惦记的就是亲爱的虎友们啦~！ 这次毫无意外，我又去虎娘家里给大家运来了一大批礼物，Duang~Duang~Duang~ 就是精美的7周年粽子礼盒：废话不多说啦~！ 只要三连：评论+转发+点赞！ 就有机会获得一份【粽子礼盒】喔！ 赶快在评论区发表的你的祝福吧！！！[比心] <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>","text":"马上就到端午节啦~！ 小话提前祝大家节日快乐了！ 每逢佳节，小话最惦记的就是亲爱的虎友们啦~！ 这次毫无意外，我又去虎娘家里给大家运来了一大批礼物，Duang~Duang~Duang~ 就是精美的7周年粽子礼盒：废话不多说啦~！ 只要三连：评论+转发+点赞！ 就有机会获得一份【粽子礼盒】喔！ 赶快在评论区发表的你的祝福吧！！！[比心] $老虎证券(TIGR)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75a61293b689b2cd90fa701c2dc6d7b4","width":"2602","height":"1952"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e975839894e4279fa5a2f76186e4fd2f","width":"2987","height":"2240"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/502dcddbd6c224d942e9f24e48ca77a9","width":"600","height":"300"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/183362038","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1348,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}