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ALUD

professional player 60 years

IP属地：上海

帖子 · 41帖子 · 41
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- ALUDALUD
  ·2020-05-13
  $BABA 20200522 210.0 CALL(BABA)$了结一下，赌财报的继续发财
  5,132 3
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- ALUDALUD
  ·2020-03-14
  $AAPL 20200320 292.5 CALL(AAPL)$一觉醒来，川普给力！$苹果(AAPL)$$吉利德科学(GILD)$$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$
  2,535 评论
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- ALUDALUD
  ·2020-03-12
  $GILD 20200320 67.5 PUT(GILD)$说了有诱多嫌疑，没人信
  3,095 评论
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- ALUDALUD
  ·2020-03-12
  中国开采油成本更高也没见哪个油厂倒闭了，不就是国家补嘛，垄断行业多赚点多收点税补贴一下不就完了
  美股暴跌算什么，这才是美国经济的命门
  正在全球关注美股活久见的暴跌，见证历史时刻的时候，真正的历史时刻其实还没来。股市下跌对于美国经济冲击的远不如油价下跌。等等！油价下跌不是有利于降低经济运行成本，有利于美国经济么？如果看一下油价背后所
  美股暴跌算什么，这才是美国经济的命门
  2,283 评论
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- ALUDALUD
  ·2020-02-28
  $爱奇艺(IQ)$ 平平无奇的财报，删自选了，再见爱奇艺
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- ALUDALUD
  ·2020-02-27
  $爱奇艺(IQ)$ 赌一波财报，起飞起飞
  2,035 评论
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- ALUDALUD
  ·2020-01-08
  $爱奇艺(IQ)$ 版权时代元年，马克一下2021年见
  3,969 评论
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- ALUDALUD
  ·2020-01-02
  $爱奇艺(IQ)$ 能涨多久。。。。
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- ALUDALUD
  ·2019-12-13
  $爱奇艺(IQ)$ 时间有点久了，最近懒到爆炸
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- ALUDALUD
  ·2019-11-04
  $爱奇艺(IQ)$ 你们觉得我这波该拿多久呢
  2,857 评论
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CALL(BABA)$了结一下，赌财报的继续发财","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a102fef478107cc44e25df2f8607dd4e","width":"1080","height":"1775"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/950654836","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5132,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3524009202157030","authorId":"3524009202157030","name":"飘流心灵","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33c2cd0075831db296abb5c3f776a534","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3524009202157030","authorIdStr":"3524009202157030"},"content":"还好吗？80见","text":"还好吗？80见","html":"还好吗？80见"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":964335089,"gmtCreate":1584161686841,"gmtModify":1704353306937,"author":{"id":"3480466889774549","authorId":"3480466889774549","name":"ALUD","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/d0efefb2c1a27d4b44a28e497bd533e6","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3480466889774549","authorIdStr":"3480466889774549"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$AAPL 20200320 292.5 CALL(AAPL)$</a>一觉醒来，川普给力！<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GILD\">$吉利德科学(GILD)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TVIX\">$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$AAPL 20200320 292.5 CALL(AAPL)$</a>一觉醒来，川普给力！<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GILD\">$吉利德科学(GILD)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TVIX\">$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$</a>","text":"$AAPL 20200320 292.5 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PUT(GILD)$</a>说了有诱多嫌疑，没人信","text":"$GILD 20200320 67.5 PUT(GILD)$说了有诱多嫌疑，没人信","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61711c3c761b4e7f209a0db6f67a9d26","width":"1080","height":"1775"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/965518048","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3095,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":965654654,"gmtCreate":1584004737078,"gmtModify":1704352388219,"author":{"id":"3480466889774549","authorId":"3480466889774549","name":"ALUD","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/d0efefb2c1a27d4b44a28e497bd533e6","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3480466889774549","authorIdStr":"3480466889774549"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"中国开采油成本更高也没见哪个油厂倒闭了，不就是国家补嘛，垄断行业多赚点多收点税补贴一下不就完了","listText":"中国开采油成本更高也没见哪个油厂倒闭了，不就是国家补嘛，垄断行业多赚点多收点税补贴一下不就完了","text":"中国开采油成本更高也没见哪个油厂倒闭了，不就是国家补嘛，垄断行业多赚点多收点税补贴一下不就完了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/965654654","repostId":"1178354444","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1178354444","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1583973492,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1178354444?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-03-12 08:38","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股暴跌算什么，这才是美国经济的命门","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178354444","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"正在全球关注美股活久见的暴跌，见证历史时刻的时候，真正的历史时刻其实还没来。股市下跌对于美国经济冲击的远不如油价下跌。\n等等！油价下跌不是有利于降低经济运行成本，有利于美国经济么？如果看一下油价背后所","content":"<p><span>正在全球关注美股活久见的暴跌，见证历史时刻的时候，真正的历史时刻其实还没来。股市下跌对于美国经济冲击的远不如油价下跌。</span></p>\n<p><span><b>等等！油价下跌不是有利于降低经济运行成本，有利于美国经济么？如果看一下油价背后所关联的东西，就会明白，这颗炸弹的引信已然点燃。</b></span></p>\n<p><span>油价下跌的第一轮冲击是美国的页岩油公司。目前美国页岩油公司需要 48美元以上的油价才能“打平”综合生产成本，油价在48美元以下，美国页岩油行业就要出现倒闭潮。</span></p>\n<p><span>当然，倒闭潮不是油价在跌破48美元那一刻就会立即发生，因为页岩油公司测算的所谓成本里面很多都是“沉没成本”，油价就算只有10美元/桶，页岩油公司都要照样生产——一方面是寄希望于此后的油价回升；另一方面是能收回多少就收回多少成本。等到油井干涸后（页岩油油井生命周期只有2-3年，需要不断投入资本开采新的油井，才能保证产量），如果油价在此期间没有回升，那不但页岩油公司无法继续生产维持产量，用于支撑其庞大资本投入的债务也将违约。</span></p>\n<p><span>所以油价短期下跌的连锁冲击需要一点时间才能显现，但页岩油公司的债务由于预期会首先出现问题，而巨大的炸弹引信就从这里点燃。</span></p>\n<p><span>整个市场目前也正在演着这一逻辑演进着。美国页岩油公司SM Energy发行的总规模4.77亿美元的公司债周一一开盘价格就出现了腰斩，从90美分跌到了42美分。这只是冰山一角，很多页岩油公司的债务都在油价腰斩的同时，同步腰斩。</span></p>\n<p><span>整个美国油气公司的公司债债券市场有多大？9360亿美元！周一一开盘超过1000亿美元的油气公司债的收益率与美国国债的利差就超过了10%！（公司债与美国国债间的利差是衡量公司债违约风险的重要指标之一，利差越高违约风险越大）</span></p>\n<p><b><span>一共不就1000亿美元的公司债么？就算全没了又能怎样！？</span></b></p>\n<p><span>油气公司债不是孤立存在的真空，其与整个美国公司债市场紧密关联，公司债和公司债之间的收益率是有强正相关关系的（这主要是因为整个经济是相互关联的——一个部门出现了严重问题将影响整个产业链，继而传导至整个经济，所以公司债市场的利率关联性是以经济现实为基础的。），油气公司债的利率大幅上行将带动整个美国市场公司债利率。这也是市场上目前正在发生的事情。</span></p>\n<p><span>图：美联储监控的美国BBB级公司债利率与国债利差变化情况</span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f1b9e517c480fb73bf7e96d4090046c\"><span>虽然涨幅挺大，但实际利差才不到2.4%，应该还好吧。</span></p>\n<p><span>首先，这是美联储滞后2-3天的数据，现在应该高更多；更加重要的是，这种利差上升一旦开启，将是巨浪级的连锁反应，特别是在美联储已经没有太多降息空间的情况下，更是如此。</span></p>\n<p><span>为什么呢？因为随着利差的上升，美联储又没有足够弹药帮忙人为降低公司债利率的情况下，随着利率越来越高，原先能还得起债的公司就会变得还不起（现金流没变，但利息支出更高了），特别是那些离垃圾级债券仅一步之遥的BBB级债券最为危险——这些公司债后面的现金流支撑很脆弱，一旦利率升高就会被降到垃圾级，同时利率暴涨，形成恶性循环，加速企业死亡。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>美国现在因为利差上升可能被降到垃圾的BBB级债券规模有多大？3万亿美元！占整个公司债市场的50%！</span></b></p>\n<p><span>08年之前，BBB级的占比大约也就是在20-25%。但是随着此后欧美央行长期保持低利率，让更多原本应该是垃圾级的债券变成了BBB级（垃圾级市场较小，因为很多机构不允许买垃圾级债券，但变成BBB级之后市场就越做越大，再加上利率不断走低，让BBB级更加受欢迎）；同时BBB级债券还被用用于股票回购：发债的成本很多只有3-4%，但公司在内部测算股票成本时的市场要求收益率一般都在10%以上，用不到一半成本的公司债去置换股票是小学生都会算的帐。</span></p>\n<p><span>图：结果就是这样的（灰色部分是BBB级公司债的规模变化情况）</span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2640f11ed3b5ca12ebf586aef6ddb0bf\"><span>而多数的油气公司债都处在BBB级区间，油气板块爆掉，将引爆大规模的BBB级债券收益率跟着上升，以及大规模的降级潮。</span></p>\n<p><span>被评为BBB级债券的企业发行人，其实际上离垃圾级仅一步之遥。更确切地说如果不是因为长期低利率，这些发行人本身就是垃圾级。在利差上升的情况下，据新债王冈德拉赫测算，美国三分之一到二分之一的BBB级债券都会被打回原形。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>等事情发展到这一程度时，就是美国公司债危机全面爆发之日，其冲击力将不会亚于08年经济危机。</span></b><span>而油价暴跌后保持低位时间越长，这一天也就越近。</span></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股暴跌算什么，这才是美国经济的命门</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股暴跌算什么，这才是美国经济的命门\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-03-12 08:38 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/dQSaylKcALZu3D80s_3pHw><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>正在全球关注美股活久见的暴跌，见证历史时刻的时候，真正的历史时刻其实还没来。股市下跌对于美国经济冲击的远不如油价下跌。\n等等！油价下跌不是有利于降低经济运行成本，有利于美国经济么？如果看一下油价背后所关联的东西，就会明白，这颗炸弹的引信已然点燃。\n油价下跌的第一轮冲击是美国的页岩油公司。目前美国页岩油公司需要 48美元以上的油价才能“打平”综合生产成本，油价在48美元以下，美国页岩油行业就要出现...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/dQSaylKcALZu3D80s_3pHw\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67ddaab67c271192b52371b38356b471","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/dQSaylKcALZu3D80s_3pHw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1178354444","content_text":"正在全球关注美股活久见的暴跌，见证历史时刻的时候，真正的历史时刻其实还没来。股市下跌对于美国经济冲击的远不如油价下跌。\n等等！油价下跌不是有利于降低经济运行成本，有利于美国经济么？如果看一下油价背后所关联的东西，就会明白，这颗炸弹的引信已然点燃。\n油价下跌的第一轮冲击是美国的页岩油公司。目前美国页岩油公司需要 48美元以上的油价才能“打平”综合生产成本，油价在48美元以下，美国页岩油行业就要出现倒闭潮。\n当然，倒闭潮不是油价在跌破48美元那一刻就会立即发生，因为页岩油公司测算的所谓成本里面很多都是“沉没成本”，油价就算只有10美元/桶，页岩油公司都要照样生产——一方面是寄希望于此后的油价回升；另一方面是能收回多少就收回多少成本。等到油井干涸后（页岩油油井生命周期只有2-3年，需要不断投入资本开采新的油井，才能保证产量），如果油价在此期间没有回升，那不但页岩油公司无法继续生产维持产量，用于支撑其庞大资本投入的债务也将违约。\n所以油价短期下跌的连锁冲击需要一点时间才能显现，但页岩油公司的债务由于预期会首先出现问题，而巨大的炸弹引信就从这里点燃。\n整个市场目前也正在演着这一逻辑演进着。美国页岩油公司SM Energy发行的总规模4.77亿美元的公司债周一一开盘价格就出现了腰斩，从90美分跌到了42美分。这只是冰山一角，很多页岩油公司的债务都在油价腰斩的同时，同步腰斩。\n整个美国油气公司的公司债债券市场有多大？9360亿美元！周一一开盘超过1000亿美元的油气公司债的收益率与美国国债的利差就超过了10%！（公司债与美国国债间的利差是衡量公司债违约风险的重要指标之一，利差越高违约风险越大）\n一共不就1000亿美元的公司债么？就算全没了又能怎样！？\n油气公司债不是孤立存在的真空，其与整个美国公司债市场紧密关联，公司债和公司债之间的收益率是有强正相关关系的（这主要是因为整个经济是相互关联的——一个部门出现了严重问题将影响整个产业链，继而传导至整个经济，所以公司债市场的利率关联性是以经济现实为基础的。），油气公司债的利率大幅上行将带动整个美国市场公司债利率。这也是市场上目前正在发生的事情。\n图：美联储监控的美国BBB级公司债利率与国债利差变化情况虽然涨幅挺大，但实际利差才不到2.4%，应该还好吧。\n首先，这是美联储滞后2-3天的数据，现在应该高更多；更加重要的是，这种利差上升一旦开启，将是巨浪级的连锁反应，特别是在美联储已经没有太多降息空间的情况下，更是如此。\n为什么呢？因为随着利差的上升，美联储又没有足够弹药帮忙人为降低公司债利率的情况下，随着利率越来越高，原先能还得起债的公司就会变得还不起（现金流没变，但利息支出更高了），特别是那些离垃圾级债券仅一步之遥的BBB级债券最为危险——这些公司债后面的现金流支撑很脆弱，一旦利率升高就会被降到垃圾级，同时利率暴涨，形成恶性循环，加速企业死亡。\n美国现在因为利差上升可能被降到垃圾的BBB级债券规模有多大？3万亿美元！占整个公司债市场的50%！\n08年之前，BBB级的占比大约也就是在20-25%。但是随着此后欧美央行长期保持低利率，让更多原本应该是垃圾级的债券变成了BBB级（垃圾级市场较小，因为很多机构不允许买垃圾级债券，但变成BBB级之后市场就越做越大，再加上利率不断走低，让BBB级更加受欢迎）；同时BBB级债券还被用用于股票回购：发债的成本很多只有3-4%，但公司在内部测算股票成本时的市场要求收益率一般都在10%以上，用不到一半成本的公司债去置换股票是小学生都会算的帐。\n图：结果就是这样的（灰色部分是BBB级公司债的规模变化情况）而多数的油气公司债都处在BBB级区间，油气板块爆掉，将引爆大规模的BBB级债券收益率跟着上升，以及大规模的降级潮。\n被评为BBB级债券的企业发行人，其实际上离垃圾级仅一步之遥。更确切地说如果不是因为长期低利率，这些发行人本身就是垃圾级。在利差上升的情况下，据新债王冈德拉赫测算，美国三分之一到二分之一的BBB级债券都会被打回原形。\n等事情发展到这一程度时，就是美国公司债危机全面爆发之日，其冲击力将不会亚于08年经济危机。而油价暴跌后保持低位时间越长，这一天也就越近。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2283,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":989536279,"gmtCreate":1582870872091,"gmtModify":1704348076158,"author":{"id":"3480466889774549","authorId":"3480466889774549","name":"ALUD","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/d0efefb2c1a27d4b44a28e497bd533e6","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3480466889774549","authorIdStr":"3480466889774549"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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