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坐实预言家哈哈
一号哨位狙击手，光辉女郎爱好者，提莫启蒙英雄
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坐实预言家哈哈
坐实预言家哈哈
·
2024-04-10
$黄金主连 2406(GCmain)$
套死猪
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坐实预言家哈哈
坐实预言家哈哈
·
2024-04-08
$黄金主连 2406(GCmain)$
见顶
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坐实预言家哈哈
坐实预言家哈哈
·
2024-01-31
$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$
上
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坐实预言家哈哈
坐实预言家哈哈
·
2023-02-05
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
多
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坐实预言家哈哈
坐实预言家哈哈
·
2022-06-15
直接750吧。
一场灾难性的衰退不可避免？什么事才能让美联储“回心转意”
根据最新的基金经理调查结果显示，大致有5个因素能让美联储在2022年“暂停”或者“转向”。首先，近一半的受访者表示，如果通胀水平降至4%以下，美联储或将“转向”。其次，有20%的受访者表示，如果美国领取失业救济金的人数超过30万，那么美联储也可能会“转向”。再者，约15%的受访者提及，如果标普500指数跌至“美联储看跌期权”水平，可能将迫使美联储“暂停”。
一场灾难性的衰退不可避免？什么事才能让美联储“回心转意”
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坐实预言家哈哈
坐实预言家哈哈
·
2022-06-15
就这水平，垃圾
非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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坐实预言家哈哈
坐实预言家哈哈
·
2022-06-13
$SP500指数主连 2206(ESmain)$
今晚反红，长下引线
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坐实预言家哈哈
坐实预言家哈哈
·
2022-06-13
$NQ100指数主连 2206(NQmain)$
低开高走
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3
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坐实预言家哈哈
坐实预言家哈哈
·
2022-03-17
$恒生科技指数主连 2203(HTImain)$
有点像穿头破脚
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坐实预言家哈哈
坐实预言家哈哈
·
2022-03-15
$恒生科技指数主连 2203(HTImain)$
空头回补
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data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 上","text":"$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$ 上","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/268864361795656","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1792,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":622202481,"gmtCreate":1675609609844,"gmtModify":1675609610921,"author":{"id":"3492686347425698","authorId":"3492686347425698","name":"坐实预言家哈哈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c03d9bdd280f8e27d90895c789708db0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492686347425698","authorIdStr":"3492686347425698"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>多","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>多","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 多","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/622202481","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2510,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":689029167,"gmtCreate":1655296888363,"gmtModify":1704861825056,"author":{"id":"3492686347425698","authorId":"3492686347425698","name":"坐实预言家哈哈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c03d9bdd280f8e27d90895c789708db0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492686347425698","authorIdStr":"3492686347425698"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"直接750吧。","listText":"直接750吧。","text":"直接750吧。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/689029167","repostId":"2243967126","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2243967126","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1655286666,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2243967126?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-06-15 17:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"一场灾难性的衰退不可避免？什么事才能让美联储“回心转意”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2243967126","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"根据最新的基金经理调查结果显示，大致有5个因素能让美联储在2022年“暂停”或者“转向”。首先，近一半的受访者表示，如果通胀水平降至4%以下，美联储或将“转向”。其次，有20%的受访者表示，如果美国领取失业救济金的人数超过30万，那么美联储也可能会“转向”。再者，约15%的受访者提及，如果标普500指数跌至“美联储看跌期权”水平，可能将迫使美联储“暂停”。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>在美国通胀再度爆表之后，昔日被认为是激进举措的50基点加息似乎已经被人遗忘。现在不仅加息75基点几乎成为市场共识，甚至有华尔街大行喊出了加息100基点的大胆设想。</p><p>现在市场预期周三加息75基点的隐含概率已经飙升超100%，而几天前还是0%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8ffb3f7b1c74fc2f61f0e0d895f31fa\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"529\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>另外按照<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>的推算，美联储或将在6月和7月分别加息75基点，在9月加息50基点，随后在11月和12月再各自加息25个基点。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a935517073f5bc3c7e8b5dad7cb85e2\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>虽然高盛也已经承认，一旦加息75基点，美国经济就将陷入衰退。<b>届时为了力挽狂澜，美联储除了再次降息之外别无选择。</b></p><p>并且按照市场预期，美联储会加快收紧政策，其关键隔夜利率将在明年年中达到4%的峰值。但这就意味着美国经济增长会陷入更深的困局之中，在某种程度上会超出政策制定者原本的目标，即经济“软着陆”，在不造成经济衰退的情况下降低通胀。</p><p><b>因此有市场声音预计，终端利率可能会低于市场目前的定价。</b></p><p>具体来说，<b>市场认为美联储在火速加息之后，在未来两年内或将至少降息三次（每次25基点），并将创下自金融危机以来的最多降息次数。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/218562dba45976e7f9b18614181b8a43\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>富达国际固定收益全球首席投资官Steve Ellis表示：</p><blockquote>我们现在正处于风暴的中心，通胀是其中的关键风险，但眼下整体形势正在转向衰退和硬着陆。因此美联储必须要小心，有很多因素在发挥作用。<b>美联储可能会经历过度收紧的过程，然后又不得不放松。</b></blockquote><p>对此市场还有声音补充道，<b>一旦美联储再度开启降息，那么降息的速度会更快，幅度也会更大，形象的比喻就是“上楼梯、下电梯”。</b></p><p>那么究竟什么情况能促使美联储停止加息，甚至开启降息？根据最新的基金经理调查结果显示，大致有5个因素能让美联储在2022年“暂停”或者“转向”。</p><p>首先，近一半的受访者表示，<b>如果通胀水平降至4%以下，美联储或将“转向”。</b>虽然这个情况在今天看来不太现实，但是在近几个月表现疲软的就业情况可能会让美国劳工统计局在计算CPI时更具“创造性”，并得出一些低于预期的结果。</p><p>其次，有20%的受访者表示，<b>如果美国领取失业救济金的人数超过30万，</b>那么美联储也可能会“转向”。</p><p>华尔街见闻此前提及，只要美国就业陷入困境，就能成为牵制美联储疯狂行动的最后一根绳索。对此高盛首席经济学家Jan Hatzius分析道，非农就业人数需要在今年下半年放缓至15万的月度平均水平，以此缓解工资-价格压力。</p><p>再者，约15%的受访者提及，<b>如果标普500指数跌至“美联储看跌期权”水平</b>（即央行往往会在市场下跌时释放流动性救市），可能将迫使美联储“暂停”。</p><p>另外，有大约10%的受访者认为，<b>一旦垃圾债利差突破500基点</b>，那么就足以结束美联储的加息行动。</p><p>最后，有少数受访者补充道，<b>如果油价能够跌破90美元</b>，那么美联储也能暂停脚步。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db26877795718c593f5b0bc18881db5e\" tg-width=\"621\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>关于“美联储看跌期权”有一点值得注意，那就是今年以来市场对美联储看跌期权的价格一直在逐月下调，现在来到了3453点的平均水平（标普500指数最新价为3735.48点）。</p><p>而美联储如果继续行动，那么标普500指数可能会继续下跌到一个令所有人都感到恐慌的水平，高盛对此的预计是3150点。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bddd34ef2f8ea567af2daf3a5f0f61a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d4093b0d74a61546a977075e4de0de4\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"595\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>但是，野村证券首席经济学家辜朝明对此认为，市场参与者不应指望所谓的“央行看跌期权”为资产价格提供支撑。</p><p>在当前充足的储备机制下，仅靠普通加息不足以对抗通胀，这意味着美联储将需要借助资产价格下跌带来的反向财富效应来帮助遏制通胀。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>一场灾难性的衰退不可避免？什么事才能让美联储“回心转意”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n一场灾难性的衰退不可避免？什么事才能让美联储“回心转意”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-15 17:51 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3662045><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在美国通胀再度爆表之后，昔日被认为是激进举措的50基点加息似乎已经被人遗忘。现在不仅加息75基点几乎成为市场共识，甚至有华尔街大行喊出了加息100基点的大胆设想。现在市场预期周三加息75基点的隐含概率已经飙升超100%，而几天前还是0%。另外按照高盛的推算，美联储或将在6月和7月分别加息75基点，在9月加息50基点，随后在11月和12月再各自加息25个基点。虽然高盛也已经承认，一旦加息75基点，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3662045\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","OEX":"标普100",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3662045","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2243967126","content_text":"在美国通胀再度爆表之后，昔日被认为是激进举措的50基点加息似乎已经被人遗忘。现在不仅加息75基点几乎成为市场共识，甚至有华尔街大行喊出了加息100基点的大胆设想。现在市场预期周三加息75基点的隐含概率已经飙升超100%，而几天前还是0%。另外按照高盛的推算，美联储或将在6月和7月分别加息75基点，在9月加息50基点，随后在11月和12月再各自加息25个基点。虽然高盛也已经承认，一旦加息75基点，美国经济就将陷入衰退。届时为了力挽狂澜，美联储除了再次降息之外别无选择。并且按照市场预期，美联储会加快收紧政策，其关键隔夜利率将在明年年中达到4%的峰值。但这就意味着美国经济增长会陷入更深的困局之中，在某种程度上会超出政策制定者原本的目标，即经济“软着陆”，在不造成经济衰退的情况下降低通胀。因此有市场声音预计，终端利率可能会低于市场目前的定价。具体来说，市场认为美联储在火速加息之后，在未来两年内或将至少降息三次（每次25基点），并将创下自金融危机以来的最多降息次数。富达国际固定收益全球首席投资官Steve Ellis表示：我们现在正处于风暴的中心，通胀是其中的关键风险，但眼下整体形势正在转向衰退和硬着陆。因此美联储必须要小心，有很多因素在发挥作用。美联储可能会经历过度收紧的过程，然后又不得不放松。对此市场还有声音补充道，一旦美联储再度开启降息，那么降息的速度会更快，幅度也会更大，形象的比喻就是“上楼梯、下电梯”。那么究竟什么情况能促使美联储停止加息，甚至开启降息？根据最新的基金经理调查结果显示，大致有5个因素能让美联储在2022年“暂停”或者“转向”。首先，近一半的受访者表示，如果通胀水平降至4%以下，美联储或将“转向”。虽然这个情况在今天看来不太现实，但是在近几个月表现疲软的就业情况可能会让美国劳工统计局在计算CPI时更具“创造性”，并得出一些低于预期的结果。其次，有20%的受访者表示，如果美国领取失业救济金的人数超过30万，那么美联储也可能会“转向”。华尔街见闻此前提及，只要美国就业陷入困境，就能成为牵制美联储疯狂行动的最后一根绳索。对此高盛首席经济学家Jan Hatzius分析道，非农就业人数需要在今年下半年放缓至15万的月度平均水平，以此缓解工资-价格压力。再者，约15%的受访者提及，如果标普500指数跌至“美联储看跌期权”水平（即央行往往会在市场下跌时释放流动性救市），可能将迫使美联储“暂停”。另外，有大约10%的受访者认为，一旦垃圾债利差突破500基点，那么就足以结束美联储的加息行动。最后，有少数受访者补充道，如果油价能够跌破90美元，那么美联储也能暂停脚步。关于“美联储看跌期权”有一点值得注意，那就是今年以来市场对美联储看跌期权的价格一直在逐月下调，现在来到了3453点的平均水平（标普500指数最新价为3735.48点）。而美联储如果继续行动，那么标普500指数可能会继续下跌到一个令所有人都感到恐慌的水平，高盛对此的预计是3150点。但是，野村证券首席经济学家辜朝明对此认为，市场参与者不应指望所谓的“央行看跌期权”为资产价格提供支撑。在当前充足的储备机制下，仅靠普通加息不足以对抗通胀，这意味着美联储将需要借助资产价格下跌带来的反向财富效应来帮助遏制通胀。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,".DJI":1,".IXIC":1,".SPX":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"QID":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SPY":1,"SQQQ":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"UPRO":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3382,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":689029388,"gmtCreate":1655296830048,"gmtModify":1704861824883,"author":{"id":"3492686347425698","authorId":"3492686347425698","name":"坐实预言家哈哈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c03d9bdd280f8e27d90895c789708db0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492686347425698","authorIdStr":"3492686347425698"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"就这水平，垃圾","listText":"就这水平，垃圾","text":"就这水平，垃圾","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/689029388","repostId":"2243905559","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2315,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":680590160,"gmtCreate":1655128139852,"gmtModify":1704861220945,"author":{"id":"3492686347425698","authorId":"3492686347425698","name":"坐实预言家哈哈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c03d9bdd280f8e27d90895c789708db0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492686347425698","authorIdStr":"3492686347425698"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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