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未来基石
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未来基石
未来基石
·
2024-02-10
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
地缘政治持续恶化进一步压低了全球的连接现实的小经济体的财务预期。阿里巴巴保持现金流健康、适度扩表、降低管理层年龄、持续改善客户体验，虽然辛苦且当下财务承压，但是在地缘政治出现恢复苗头、全球化重启时大概会迅速表现出增长恢复的效果。继续观望 2024 年的全球多国换届，拭目以待吧。
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未来基石
未来基石
·
2023-11-16
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
阿里云受制于中国过于溢出的低水平重复研发能力、浮躁内卷的信息化营商环境，持续找不到核心产品体验的关键，将逐渐接近中国科技的实际估值，因此和中国的研发实力共同会成长为巨婴，回到集团妈妈的怀抱非常合理。
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未来基石
未来基石
·
2023-09-21
$Quantum Computing Inc.(QUBT)$
终于要成为买入的又一只退市股票，给自己点赞。
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未来基石
未来基石
·
2023-05-18
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
基石震撼于这么快启动独立上市，大概阿里巴巴已和各方利益取得共识。拆分公司是应对大公司问题的一种有效架构变革，一方面可以强迫经营单元重新聚焦在自己领域的核心指标，一方面可以找到理由反复调整组织架构，为新生代劳动者腾挪就业。阿里巴巴的拆分类似 Google 的方式，可以在业务和投资者中间建立屏蔽层，避免来自愚蠢的资本力量的乱指挥。是否可以在此全球衰退时建仓阿里，值得考虑。
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未来基石
未来基石
·
2023-02-26
$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$
在合适的时机，控制公司研发成本改善利润率，是延续公司发展空间的有效手段。然而，云板块和数字娱乐都是产业链很长的、需要长期重度研发投入的业务。目前财报的利润率改善，说明阿里巴巴已经看到组织过大导致内耗和研发转化率低的问题。 如果下一份财报，可以同时看到员工数回升和人均研发成本稳定或提升，就可以适当提升对财报的营收期望。这需要阿里巴巴敢于自我革命，削减中高层的现金投入。 阿里巴巴近年来持续表现出技术领域的战略短视，应积极呼吁组织内的仅低龄的技术型员工对组织技术体系做全面审视和批评，提取出未来可能要长期弥补的技术演进短板。
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未来基石
未来基石
·
2023-01-10
$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$
阿里巴巴近年来并没有什么拿得出手的公开的独特创新，随着管理体系老化和庞大的组织惯性拖后腿，业务短中期依然处于收缩趋势。这是个比烂的时代，阿里巴巴目前仅剩的优势就是相对安全的现金流，如果能够坚持度过全球衰退的冬天，核心产品服务体验减损足够慢，或许还有一线生机。
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未来基石
未来基石
·
2022-07-30
$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$
阿里投资者们尽快把美股切换到港股吧。形势已经一触即发了。
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未来基石
未来基石
·
2021-12-21
$快手-W(01024)$
打击直播带货，潜在目的是强化舆论管控，不仅要阻挡政治观点的传播，也要限制经济观点的传播，查税只是手段。另一方面，对视频媒体行业也是一种提醒，快钱赚不得，至少不应该是主营方向。快手下一步应维持并缩减电商规模，优化电商内容，减少观点输出，增加事实表达，建设客观线上电商，向消费者归还理性，从推销心智转化为姜太公。这一点同样适合
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
。在新交互领域加大基建研发成本，尽快发明下一代娱乐社交形态，承担更多社会责任，才是大企业存活基础。
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未来基石
未来基石
·
2021-03-27
$知乎(ZH)$
伴随文明发展，客观知识最终应免费共享给全人类。知乎要生存就要商业化，商业化就会抛弃初心，和文明趋势相左。本质上知乎已沦为垂直细分的内容社交平台，然而社交场马太效应强、内容场门槛低。当知识品牌充斥个性观点，转型内容社交后，距离灭亡就不远了。长期不看好知乎，私以为知识不适合商业，适合联合国。知乎品牌限制了上限，再圈几年钱到头了。
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未来基石
未来基石
·
2020-12-25
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
基石对这一轮反垄断动作表示理解和遗憾，明面动手是政治博弈压倒市场调节的危险信号。放着其他更垄断残忍的巨头不动手，首个目标直接选择垂垂老矣的阿里巴巴，且这位巨头在最近的资本倾轧争夺市场行动中毫无建树，显然本质并非所谓垄断，只是欲加之罪。阿里巴巴走到这个坎可怜可恨，怒其不争哀其不幸。
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阿里云受制于中国过于溢出的低水平重复研发能力、浮躁内卷的信息化营商环境，持续找不到核心产品体验的关键，将逐渐接近中国科技的实际估值，因此和中国的研发实力共同会成长为巨婴，回到集团妈妈的怀抱非常合理。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/242141354655768","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4811,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3536926156638531","authorId":"3536926156638531","name":"xinffu_37457","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ae5f682bba916af97aaaddbf193a0f6","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3536926156638531","authorIdStr":"3536926156638531"},"content":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","html":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":222367878467800,"gmtCreate":1695305434555,"gmtModify":1695305435671,"author":{"id":"3492958157423092","authorId":"3492958157423092","name":"未来基石","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/071e751415f400767c2ed3e093c4d7b0","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492958157423092","authorIdStr":"3492958157423092"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QUBT\">$Quantum Computing Inc.(QUBT)$ </a>终于要成为买入的又一只退市股票，给自己点赞。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QUBT\">$Quantum Computing Inc.(QUBT)$ </a>终于要成为买入的又一只退市股票，给自己点赞。","text":"$Quantum Computing Inc.(QUBT)$ 终于要成为买入的又一只退市股票，给自己点赞。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/222367878467800","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2243,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":652820720,"gmtCreate":1684424290260,"gmtModify":1684425406546,"author":{"id":"3492958157423092","authorId":"3492958157423092","name":"未来基石","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/071e751415f400767c2ed3e093c4d7b0","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492958157423092","authorIdStr":"3492958157423092"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ </a>基石震撼于这么快启动独立上市，大概阿里巴巴已和各方利益取得共识。拆分公司是应对大公司问题的一种有效架构变革，一方面可以强迫经营单元重新聚焦在自己领域的核心指标，一方面可以找到理由反复调整组织架构，为新生代劳动者腾挪就业。阿里巴巴的拆分类似 Google 的方式，可以在业务和投资者中间建立屏蔽层，避免来自愚蠢的资本力量的乱指挥。是否可以在此全球衰退时建仓阿里，值得考虑。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ </a>基石震撼于这么快启动独立上市，大概阿里巴巴已和各方利益取得共识。拆分公司是应对大公司问题的一种有效架构变革，一方面可以强迫经营单元重新聚焦在自己领域的核心指标，一方面可以找到理由反复调整组织架构，为新生代劳动者腾挪就业。阿里巴巴的拆分类似 Google 的方式，可以在业务和投资者中间建立屏蔽层，避免来自愚蠢的资本力量的乱指挥。是否可以在此全球衰退时建仓阿里，值得考虑。","text":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 基石震撼于这么快启动独立上市，大概阿里巴巴已和各方利益取得共识。拆分公司是应对大公司问题的一种有效架构变革，一方面可以强迫经营单元重新聚焦在自己领域的核心指标，一方面可以找到理由反复调整组织架构，为新生代劳动者腾挪就业。阿里巴巴的拆分类似 Google 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