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Alphabets
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·
02-11
半导体双雄么……三星、英特尔你都追不上
追赶与跨越：中芯国际VS台积电财报对比
近期，“半导体双雄”财报揭榜。中芯国际在国内阵地战中坚定追赶，而台积电则借AI东风，营收、利润继续狂飙。2025年中芯国际展现了极强的成长韧性：全年实现营收约676亿元，同比增长16.2%；归母净利润达50.4亿元，同比增幅高达39.1%。尤其是在成熟制程领域，中芯国际稳扎稳打，深耕消费电子等本土基本盘。
追赶与跨越：中芯国际VS台积电财报对比
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·
01-29
台积电应该对出厂的高端芯片进行立即涨价
Stratechery：台积电成AI最大瓶颈，潜在损失高达数千亿美元
然而，美国分析机构Stratechery创始人本·汤普森却在近日发表了不同的观点。数据显示，台积电终于开始加大投资，2025年的资本支出增长了37%，达到410亿美元。资料来源：Stratechery然而，晶圆厂建设周期长达2–3年。
Stratechery：台积电成AI最大瓶颈，潜在损失高达数千亿美元
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·
2025-09-30
非常好的文章，感谢！
台积电锁定12英寸碳化硅新战场，布局AI时代散热关键材料
晶圆代工龙头台积电正以一项大胆的材料转向回应这一挑战，那就是全面拥抱12英寸碳化硅单晶基板，并逐步退出氮化镓业务。此举不仅象征台积电在材料战略recalibration，更显示散热管理已经从“辅助技术”升格为“竞争优势”的关键。此前，台积电宣布，预计于2027年前逐步退出氮化镓业务，将资源转投SiC领域。此举显示公司对市场与材料策略的重新评估。因此，台积电在12英寸晶圆制造上的深厚经验，使其有别于其他竞争者。
台积电锁定12英寸碳化硅新战场，布局AI时代散热关键材料
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·
2025-06-30
谷歌的AI和云计算领域开始发力了
谷歌云挖角甲骨文CFO 加码AI与云业务竞争
ICC讯谷歌云正通过引入关键财务人才加速其AI与云业务扩张。"Kobi的加入为谷歌云带来不同视角，这将增强其在云服务市场的竞争力。随着与亚马逊、微软和甲骨文在云与AI收入的竞争加剧，谷歌云正大力扩展数据中心规模并加强团队建设。本月早些时候，谷歌任命DeepMind CTO Koray Kavukcuoglu为新设立的首席AI架构师。目前，长期任职亚马逊的高管Swami Sivasubramanian正领导AWS的AI业务。今年3月AWS新成立的Agentic AI业务组即由其领导。
谷歌云挖角甲骨文CFO 加码AI与云业务竞争
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·
2024-11-22
$京东(JD)$
上京东，当龟公！🐢
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·
2024-10-21
$京东(JD)$
$京东集团-SW(09618)$
自己看吧
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·
2024-10-21
$京东集团-SW(09618)$
让我看看还有哪个龟龟留着京东的股票
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·
2024-10-18
$京东集团-SW(09618)$
等着出事吧………… 君子不立危墙之下，先跑为敬！
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2024-03-02
$戴尔(DELL)$
这么吊，没想到
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·
2024-01-31
稳中向好
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18:00","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"追赶与跨越：中芯国际VS台积电财报对比","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2610933511","media":"东方财富Choice...","summary":"近期，“半导体双雄”财报揭榜。中芯国际在国内阵地战中坚定追赶，而台积电则借AI东风，营收、利润继续狂飙。2025年中芯国际展现了极强的成长韧性：全年实现营收约676亿元，同比增长16.2%；归母净利润达50.4亿元，同比增幅高达39.1%。尤其是在成熟制程领域，中芯国际稳扎稳打，深耕消费电子等本土基本盘。","content":"<html><body><div>\n<center><img src=\"https://np-newspic.dfcfw.com/download/D25091557284484603016_w1080h4526.jpg\" width=\"580\"/></center><p> 近期，“<span>半导体</span><span></span>双雄”财报揭榜。<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688981\">中芯国际</a></span>在国内阵地战中坚定追赶，而<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a></span><span></span>则借AI<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600081\">东风</a>，营收、利润继续狂飙。</p><p> 2025年<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/116.00981\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">中芯国际</a></span>展现了极强的成长韧性：全年实现营收约676亿元，同比增长16.2%；归母净利润达50.4 亿元，同比增幅高达39.1%。尤其是在成熟制程领域，<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/116.00981\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">中芯国际</span>稳扎稳打，深耕<span>消费电子</span><span></span>等本土基本盘。</p><p> 而<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/106.TSM\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">台积电</span>则凭借对 3nm/5nm 先进制程的统治力，营收迈向8800亿元的量级。随着 HPC（高性能计算营收占比冲上 58%，<span href=\"http://quote.eastmoney.com/unify/r/106.TSM\" target=\"_blank\" web=\"1\">台积电</span>已完成了从传统代工向“AI 基础设施”的身份跨越，以近60%的毛利率摄取了行业的绝大部分溢价。</p><p><img src=\"https://np-newspic.dfcfw.com/download/D25753173264126031117_w690h389.jpg\"/></p> </div></body></html>","source":"eastmoney_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>追赶与跨越：中芯国际VS台积电财报对比</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n追赶与跨越：中芯国际VS台积电财报对比\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-11 18:00 北京时间 <a href=http://finance.eastmoney.com/news/1345,202602113648000416.html><strong>东方财富Choice...</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>近期，“半导体双雄”财报揭榜。中芯国际在国内阵地战中坚定追赶，而台积电则借AI东风，营收、利润继续狂飙。 2025年中芯国际展现了极强的成长韧性：全年实现营收约676亿元，同比增长16.2%；归母净利润达50.4 亿元，同比增幅高达39.1%。尤其是在成熟制程领域，中芯国际稳扎稳打，深耕消费电子等本土基本盘。 而台积电则凭借对 3nm/5nm 先进制程的统治力，营收迈向8800亿元的量级。随着...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://finance.eastmoney.com/news/1345,202602113648000416.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"688981":"中芯国际","LU2092937221.SGD":"Blackrock Circular Economy A2 SGD-H","LU2491050154.USD":"WELLINGTON SUSTAINABLE OUTCOMES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0488056044.USD":"Allianz Asian Multi Income Plus Cl AM DIS USD","LU0384037296.USD":"ALLIANZ ASIAN MULTI INCOME PLUS \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU1934455277.USD":"AB SICAV I LOW VOLATILITY TOTAL RETURN EQUITY PORT \"AD\" (USD) INC","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4602":"量子计算概念","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","LU2054465674.USD":"UBS (LUX) KEY SELEC SICAV DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION T \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0965508806.USD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (USD) INC","LU1064131003.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - CHINA A EQUITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0143863198.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES\"AU\" (USD) 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ACC"},"source_url":"http://finance.eastmoney.com/news/1345,202602113648000416.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2610933511","content_text":"近期，“半导体双雄”财报揭榜。中芯国际在国内阵地战中坚定追赶，而台积电则借AI东风，营收、利润继续狂飙。 2025年中芯国际展现了极强的成长韧性：全年实现营收约676亿元，同比增长16.2%；归母净利润达50.4 亿元，同比增幅高达39.1%。尤其是在成熟制程领域，中芯国际稳扎稳打，深耕消费电子等本土基本盘。 而台积电则凭借对 3nm/5nm 先进制程的统治力，营收迈向8800亿元的量级。随着 HPC（高性能计算营收占比冲上 58%，台积电已完成了从传统代工向“AI 基础设施”的身份跨越，以近60%的毛利率摄取了行业的绝大部分溢价。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"688981":1.91,"TSM":1.93,"00981":1.91,"03145":0.6,"TSMG":0.6,"TSMX":0.6,"TSMU":0.6,"STSM":0.6,"TSMY":0.6,"TSMZ":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":129,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":527126323168200,"gmtCreate":1769701150613,"gmtModify":1769701153124,"author":{"id":"3493795337639736","authorId":"3493795337639736","name":"Alphabets","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56b77e37f69d75881bb0e3579ec38396","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3493795337639736","idStr":"3493795337639736"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"台积电应该对出厂的高端芯片进行立即涨价","listText":"台积电应该对出厂的高端芯片进行立即涨价","text":"台积电应该对出厂的高端芯片进行立即涨价","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/527126323168200","repostId":"2607701039","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2607701039","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1769674054,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2607701039?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-29 16:07","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Stratechery：台积电成AI最大瓶颈，潜在损失高达数千亿美元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2607701039","media":"电子工程专辑","summary":"然而，美国分析机构Stratechery创始人本·汤普森却在近日发表了不同的观点。数据显示，台积电终于开始加大投资，2025年的资本支出增长了37%，达到410亿美元。资料来源：Stratechery然而，晶圆厂建设周期长达2–3年。","content":"<html><body><article><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260129163757545v2017iwtjvhia95\"/><p>在AI热潮席卷全球的当下，一个反复被提及的疑问是：我们是否正身处一场“AI泡沫”之中？许多投资者和分析师警告，AI相关企业的估值已严重脱离现实，市场可能正在重演互联网时代的非理性繁荣。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260129163802798v201jyewhrebc4l\"/><p>然而，美国分析机构Stratechery创始人本·汤普森（Ben Thompson）却在近日发表了不同的观点。他认为，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>保守的扩产策略已经阻碍了AI行业的发展，“而且，这种风险的负面影响已经开始显现。”</p><p>与本·汤普森观点相印证是，全球最顶尖的科技公司——<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>——却在财报电话会议中一致传递出同一个信号：AI的需求不仅真实存在，而且远超供给能力。更关键的是，这些巨头将这一供需失衡的根源，指向了同一家企业：台积电。</p><p>本·汤普森指出，即便<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>等竞争对手试图入场，短期内也难以撼动台积电主导地位，反而凸显了整个AI生态对单一供应商的高度依赖所蕴含的巨大系统性风险。他本人甚至认为：“如果说OpenAI和Altman是推动加速人工智能基础设施建设的动力，那么台积电CEO魏哲家和台积电就是阻碍者。”</p><p>人工智能存在泡沫吗？</p><p>尽管资本市场对AI的狂热引发广泛质疑，但真正身处产业一线的科技巨头们却给出了截然不同的判断。在最近的财报电话会议上，各大科技巨头高管不约而同地强调：AI基础设施的需求持续超出预期，且供给严重受限。</p><p>亚马逊CEO安迪·贾西（Andy Jassy）在公司财报电话会议上表示，“你会看到我们继续大力投资产能，因为我们看到了市场需求。我们目前增加产能的速度与实现盈利的速度一样快。”</p><p>微软CFO艾米·胡德（Amy Hood）也介绍，“Azure AI 服务收入总体上符合预期，本季度，即使我们增加了更多容量，各工作负载的需求仍然超过了供应。”</p><p>而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>首席财务官阿纳特·阿什肯纳齐（Anat Ashkenazi）更是指出，“尽管我们一直在努力提升容量，并加快了服务器部署和数据中心建设的速度，但我们预计在第四季度和2026年仍将面临供需紧张的局面。”</p><p>”Meta CEO扎克伯格也透露，公司屡次基于“乐观假设”建设算力基础设施，结果“实际拥有的计算能力仍无法满足需求”。</p><p>对此，本·汤普森表示，“Altman的所有交易最终能否落实，取决于台积电目前在产能方面的投资规模。虽然台积电尚未亮出底牌，但他们对人工智能作为一大趋势的言论可谓掷地有声，却尚未承诺投入与OpenAI的目标相匹配的资金。”</p><p>他认为，如果上述企业CEO和CFO的评论属实，那么台积电的“刹车”已经让大型科技公司损失惨重。这就是供不应求的后果：原本可以获得的收入却未能实现，因为台积电没有像其他公司那样跟进人工智能的热潮。</p><p>台积电资本支出滞后</p><p>在本·汤普森看来，造成当前AI芯片供不应求的核心原因，可追溯至台积电过去几年的资本支出决策。</p><p>2021年，在新冠疫情引发物资短缺、行业对5G发展满怀信心这两大因素的双重推动下，台积电的资本支出呈现出大幅增长态势。然而，此后几年，台积电的年度资本支出基本持平，甚至在2023年和2024年同比下降。</p><p>值得一提的是，2022年11月，ChatGPT横空出世并迅速发布，这一现象级事件直接引发了超大规模数据中心运营商资本支出的井喷式增长。但令人意外的是，台积电在这股资本支出热潮中，似乎并未受到明显的波及与影响。</p><p>数据显示，台积电终于开始加大投资，2025年的资本支出增长了37%，达到410亿美元。本·汤普森预计，2026年台积电支出还将进一步增长至520亿至560亿美元，“如果取中间值，则增幅为32%，略低于去年。”</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260129163810411v2013zi3eph59sf\"/><p>资料来源：Stratechery</p><p>然而，晶圆厂建设周期长达2–3年。魏哲家本人也承认：“今年的投资对2026年几乎无贡献，到2027年也只有少量产出，真正放量要等到2028–2029年。”这意味着，当前的短缺正是过去三年投资不足的直接后果。</p><p>更严峻的是，AI芯片不仅依赖先进制程（如N3B、N2），还高度依赖台积电独有的CoWoS先进封装技术。而CoWoS产线规模远小于晶圆制造，已成为另一大瓶颈。这种“双重瓶颈”使得即使晶圆产出增加，整体芯片交付仍受限。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260129163814898v201c0fojnk4a2e\"/><p>资料来源：Stratechery（注：2025年的数据为预估值）</p><p>与台积电保守策略不同的是，超大规模数据中心运营商的资本支出增长显得更为“激进”。而这部分资本支出增长很大程度上是用于芯片制造，而芯片制造又依赖于台积电几年前停滞不前的资本支出增长。</p><p>本·汤普森认为，“台积电的刹车机制不会消失——如果说有什么变化的话，那就是它正面临比以往任何时候都更大的压力。”</p><p>台积电为何谨慎扩产？</p><p>尽管本·汤普森认为台积电投资支出不足，严重影响AI芯片产能，但无疑500多亿美元绝对是一个巨大的数字。</p><p>实际上，台积电的保守并非短视，而是源于其商业模式的内在逻辑。而本·汤普森也理解台积电非常理性的做法。他介绍，“晶圆代工厂的风险几乎高于其他任何商业模式：晶圆代工厂几乎所有成本都是资本支出，这意味着如果需求未能实现，成本（以折旧的形式）不会像边际成本占比更高的商业模式那样下降。”</p><p>他表示，“建造晶圆厂涉及巨额资金，这进一步加剧了风险：520亿至560亿美元的投资或许能带来高利润率的营收，但这些高利润率很容易因为产能过剩而变成巨额亏损，并导致未来几年定价权下降。”</p><p>对此，台积电甚至因此放弃了2028年的部分收益。魏哲家坦言，其也在考虑人工智能的需求是否真实存在，“我也深感紧张——毕竟台积电需投入520亿至560亿美元资本支出。如果我们处理不当，对台积电来说肯定是一场巨大的灾难。过去三四个月里，我花了很多时间与我的客户以及客户的客户沟通。我们需要确保客户的需求是真实存在的。”</p><p>不过，本·汤普森同样认为，台积电规避的风险并未消失，而是被转嫁给了下游客户。科技巨头们因芯片短缺而损失的营收，本质上是承担了台积电不愿承担的“需求不确定性风险”。</p><p>他指出，这种风险转移在短期看似可控，但若AI真如巨头们所言具备颠覆性潜力，那么到2028年，台积电仍然无法生产足够的芯片来满足市场需求，将使这些企业损失数十亿美元的收入。“尽管如此，潜在的损失——尤其是当损失金额可能高达数千亿美元时——仍然是超大规模数据中心运营商由于台积电的保守策略而承担的巨大风险。”</p><p>按照本·汤普森的观点，台积电的“理性”正在以牺牲整个AI产业的发展速度为代价。</p><p>引入三星、英特尔亦难破局</p><p>面对台积电的产能瓶颈，引入三星、英特尔的代工产能会是解决方案吗？</p><p>三星已向英伟达送样HBM4，英特尔也在推进Intel 18A和20A工艺，并争取微软、亚马逊等客户。然而，本·汤普森表示，现实远比<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想</a>复杂。台积电在过去二十年构建的不仅是<span>技术优势</span>，更是一个高度信任的生态系统：从IP库、EDA工具链到良率管理、客户服务响应，台积电已成为无晶圆厂芯片企业的“默认选项”，特别是英伟达（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">Nvidia</a>）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>（Apple）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a> 或<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a>（Qualcomm）这些科技巨头。</p><p>本·汤普森认为，面对AI巨大的市场需求，台积电正在不断提高代工价格，但芯片在系统中的总成本仍然很低，“为了节省几美元，却要承受性能下降、客户体验变差、上市时间延长甚至可能导致灾难性产品故障的风险，这值得吗？”</p><p>如今，开发一款采用新代工厂工艺的芯片需耗时2–3年，期间若工艺不稳定或支持不足，代价极高。因此，即便三星、英特尔技术接近，客户仍不敢轻易“换道”。这导致竞争难以真正形成，台积电的垄断地位反而在危机中进一步强化。</p><p>当然，本·汤普森表示理解为什么科技巨头都坚持选择台积电，但他也希望超大规模数据中心和无晶圆厂芯片公司必须认清一个现实：为规避与台积电以外厂商合作的“显性风险”，反而会带来更隐蔽、更严重的“系统性风险”。</p><p>“今天的短缺可能只是小菜一碟：如果人工智能真如这些公司所宣称的那样具有潜力，那么到十年末，未来收入损失的代价将呈指数级增长——肯定远远超过让三星和/或英特尔成为台积电的有力竞争对手所需的任何成本。” 本·汤普森显然看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">好未来</a>AI的发展潜力，同时也担忧可能存在的“高达数千亿美元行业损失”。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/GFk2abHRMHTicEPxaXIBTRt3unD50rILxWfSIOyU9CGyfTWINSiccR4SGFP87ZdQU3uqqPPbNec2dWJTtByR9nzA/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg\"/></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stratechery：台积电成AI最大瓶颈，潜在损失高达数千亿美元</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStratechery：台积电成AI最大瓶颈，潜在损失高达数千亿美元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-29 16:07 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260129163846953ee636&s=b><strong>电子工程专辑</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在AI热潮席卷全球的当下，一个反复被提及的疑问是：我们是否正身处一场“AI泡沫”之中？许多投资者和分析师警告，AI相关企业的估值已严重脱离现实，市场可能正在重演互联网时代的非理性繁荣。然而，美国分析机构Stratechery创始人本·汤普森（Ben Thompson）却在近日发表了不同的观点。他认为，台积电保守的扩产策略已经阻碍了AI行业的发展，“而且，这种风险的负面影响已经开始显现。”与本·...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260129163846953ee636&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1868837722.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES \"2\" (USD) ACC","LU0965509283.SGD":"AB LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU2089283258.USD":"安联环球可持续基金Cl AM Dis","LU2041044095.USD":"Blackrock Circular Economy A2 USD","IE00BFXG0V08.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL LEADERS \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU1211504680.USD":"ALLIANZ HIGH DIVIDEND ASIA PACIFIC EQUITY \"AM\" (USD) INC","SGXZ99366536.SGD":"United Global Innovation A Acc SGD-H","IE00BHPRN162.USD":"BNY MELLON BLOCKCHAIN INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU2106854487.HKD":"ALLIANZ THEMATICA \"AMG\" (HKD) INC","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU1282649067.USD":"ALLIANZ ASIAN MULTI INCOME PLUS \"AMG\" (USD) INC A","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0889565833.HKD":"FRANKLIN TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) 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ACC","03145":"华夏亚洲高息股","TSM":"台积电"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260129163846953ee636&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2607701039","content_text":"在AI热潮席卷全球的当下，一个反复被提及的疑问是：我们是否正身处一场“AI泡沫”之中？许多投资者和分析师警告，AI相关企业的估值已严重脱离现实，市场可能正在重演互联网时代的非理性繁荣。然而，美国分析机构Stratechery创始人本·汤普森（Ben Thompson）却在近日发表了不同的观点。他认为，台积电保守的扩产策略已经阻碍了AI行业的发展，“而且，这种风险的负面影响已经开始显现。”与本·汤普森观点相印证是，全球最顶尖的科技公司——微软、谷歌、Meta、亚马逊——却在财报电话会议中一致传递出同一个信号：AI的需求不仅真实存在，而且远超供给能力。更关键的是，这些巨头将这一供需失衡的根源，指向了同一家企业：台积电。本·汤普森指出，即便三星、英特尔等竞争对手试图入场，短期内也难以撼动台积电主导地位，反而凸显了整个AI生态对单一供应商的高度依赖所蕴含的巨大系统性风险。他本人甚至认为：“如果说OpenAI和Altman是推动加速人工智能基础设施建设的动力，那么台积电CEO魏哲家和台积电就是阻碍者。”人工智能存在泡沫吗？尽管资本市场对AI的狂热引发广泛质疑，但真正身处产业一线的科技巨头们却给出了截然不同的判断。在最近的财报电话会议上，各大科技巨头高管不约而同地强调：AI基础设施的需求持续超出预期，且供给严重受限。亚马逊CEO安迪·贾西（Andy Jassy）在公司财报电话会议上表示，“你会看到我们继续大力投资产能，因为我们看到了市场需求。我们目前增加产能的速度与实现盈利的速度一样快。”微软CFO艾米·胡德（Amy Hood）也介绍，“Azure AI 服务收入总体上符合预期，本季度，即使我们增加了更多容量，各工作负载的需求仍然超过了供应。”而谷歌首席财务官阿纳特·阿什肯纳齐（Anat Ashkenazi）更是指出，“尽管我们一直在努力提升容量，并加快了服务器部署和数据中心建设的速度，但我们预计在第四季度和2026年仍将面临供需紧张的局面。””Meta CEO扎克伯格也透露，公司屡次基于“乐观假设”建设算力基础设施，结果“实际拥有的计算能力仍无法满足需求”。对此，本·汤普森表示，“Altman的所有交易最终能否落实，取决于台积电目前在产能方面的投资规模。虽然台积电尚未亮出底牌，但他们对人工智能作为一大趋势的言论可谓掷地有声，却尚未承诺投入与OpenAI的目标相匹配的资金。”他认为，如果上述企业CEO和CFO的评论属实，那么台积电的“刹车”已经让大型科技公司损失惨重。这就是供不应求的后果：原本可以获得的收入却未能实现，因为台积电没有像其他公司那样跟进人工智能的热潮。台积电资本支出滞后在本·汤普森看来，造成当前AI芯片供不应求的核心原因，可追溯至台积电过去几年的资本支出决策。2021年，在新冠疫情引发物资短缺、行业对5G发展满怀信心这两大因素的双重推动下，台积电的资本支出呈现出大幅增长态势。然而，此后几年，台积电的年度资本支出基本持平，甚至在2023年和2024年同比下降。值得一提的是，2022年11月，ChatGPT横空出世并迅速发布，这一现象级事件直接引发了超大规模数据中心运营商资本支出的井喷式增长。但令人意外的是，台积电在这股资本支出热潮中，似乎并未受到明显的波及与影响。数据显示，台积电终于开始加大投资，2025年的资本支出增长了37%，达到410亿美元。本·汤普森预计，2026年台积电支出还将进一步增长至520亿至560亿美元，“如果取中间值，则增幅为32%，略低于去年。”资料来源：Stratechery然而，晶圆厂建设周期长达2–3年。魏哲家本人也承认：“今年的投资对2026年几乎无贡献，到2027年也只有少量产出，真正放量要等到2028–2029年。”这意味着，当前的短缺正是过去三年投资不足的直接后果。更严峻的是，AI芯片不仅依赖先进制程（如N3B、N2），还高度依赖台积电独有的CoWoS先进封装技术。而CoWoS产线规模远小于晶圆制造，已成为另一大瓶颈。这种“双重瓶颈”使得即使晶圆产出增加，整体芯片交付仍受限。资料来源：Stratechery（注：2025年的数据为预估值）与台积电保守策略不同的是，超大规模数据中心运营商的资本支出增长显得更为“激进”。而这部分资本支出增长很大程度上是用于芯片制造，而芯片制造又依赖于台积电几年前停滞不前的资本支出增长。本·汤普森认为，“台积电的刹车机制不会消失——如果说有什么变化的话，那就是它正面临比以往任何时候都更大的压力。”台积电为何谨慎扩产？尽管本·汤普森认为台积电投资支出不足，严重影响AI芯片产能，但无疑500多亿美元绝对是一个巨大的数字。实际上，台积电的保守并非短视，而是源于其商业模式的内在逻辑。而本·汤普森也理解台积电非常理性的做法。他介绍，“晶圆代工厂的风险几乎高于其他任何商业模式：晶圆代工厂几乎所有成本都是资本支出，这意味着如果需求未能实现，成本（以折旧的形式）不会像边际成本占比更高的商业模式那样下降。”他表示，“建造晶圆厂涉及巨额资金，这进一步加剧了风险：520亿至560亿美元的投资或许能带来高利润率的营收，但这些高利润率很容易因为产能过剩而变成巨额亏损，并导致未来几年定价权下降。”对此，台积电甚至因此放弃了2028年的部分收益。魏哲家坦言，其也在考虑人工智能的需求是否真实存在，“我也深感紧张——毕竟台积电需投入520亿至560亿美元资本支出。如果我们处理不当，对台积电来说肯定是一场巨大的灾难。过去三四个月里，我花了很多时间与我的客户以及客户的客户沟通。我们需要确保客户的需求是真实存在的。”不过，本·汤普森同样认为，台积电规避的风险并未消失，而是被转嫁给了下游客户。科技巨头们因芯片短缺而损失的营收，本质上是承担了台积电不愿承担的“需求不确定性风险”。他指出，这种风险转移在短期看似可控，但若AI真如巨头们所言具备颠覆性潜力，那么到2028年，台积电仍然无法生产足够的芯片来满足市场需求，将使这些企业损失数十亿美元的收入。“尽管如此，潜在的损失——尤其是当损失金额可能高达数千亿美元时——仍然是超大规模数据中心运营商由于台积电的保守策略而承担的巨大风险。”按照本·汤普森的观点，台积电的“理性”正在以牺牲整个AI产业的发展速度为代价。引入三星、英特尔亦难破局面对台积电的产能瓶颈，引入三星、英特尔的代工产能会是解决方案吗？三星已向英伟达送样HBM4，英特尔也在推进Intel 18A和20A工艺，并争取微软、亚马逊等客户。然而，本·汤普森表示，现实远比理想复杂。台积电在过去二十年构建的不仅是技术优势，更是一个高度信任的生态系统：从IP库、EDA工具链到良率管理、客户服务响应，台积电已成为无晶圆厂芯片企业的“默认选项”，特别是英伟达（Nvidia）、苹果（Apple）、AMD 或高通（Qualcomm）这些科技巨头。本·汤普森认为，面对AI巨大的市场需求，台积电正在不断提高代工价格，但芯片在系统中的总成本仍然很低，“为了节省几美元，却要承受性能下降、客户体验变差、上市时间延长甚至可能导致灾难性产品故障的风险，这值得吗？”如今，开发一款采用新代工厂工艺的芯片需耗时2–3年，期间若工艺不稳定或支持不足，代价极高。因此，即便三星、英特尔技术接近，客户仍不敢轻易“换道”。这导致竞争难以真正形成，台积电的垄断地位反而在危机中进一步强化。当然，本·汤普森表示理解为什么科技巨头都坚持选择台积电，但他也希望超大规模数据中心和无晶圆厂芯片公司必须认清一个现实：为规避与台积电以外厂商合作的“显性风险”，反而会带来更隐蔽、更严重的“系统性风险”。“今天的短缺可能只是小菜一碟：如果人工智能真如这些公司所宣称的那样具有潜力，那么到十年末，未来收入损失的代价将呈指数级增长——肯定远远超过让三星和/或英特尔成为台积电的有力竞争对手所需的任何成本。” 本·汤普森显然看好未来AI的发展潜力，同时也担忧可能存在的“高达数千亿美元行业损失”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"03145":0.6,"TSM":1.96}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":199,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":484204003418304,"gmtCreate":1759242610001,"gmtModify":1759242612269,"author":{"id":"3493795337639736","authorId":"3493795337639736","name":"Alphabets","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56b77e37f69d75881bb0e3579ec38396","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3493795337639736","idStr":"3493795337639736"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"非常好的文章，感谢！","listText":"非常好的文章，感谢！","text":"非常好的文章，感谢！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/484204003418304","repostId":"2571810355","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2571810355","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1759161703,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2571810355?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-09-30 00:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"台积电锁定12英寸碳化硅新战场，布局AI时代散热关键材料","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2571810355","media":"DT新材料","summary":"晶圆代工龙头台积电正以一项大胆的材料转向回应这一挑战，那就是全面拥抱12英寸碳化硅单晶基板，并逐步退出氮化镓业务。此举不仅象征台积电在材料战略recalibration，更显示散热管理已经从“辅助技术”升格为“竞争优势”的关键。此前，台积电宣布，预计于2027年前逐步退出氮化镓业务，将资源转投SiC领域。此举显示公司对市场与材料策略的重新评估。因此，台积电在12英寸晶圆制造上的深厚经验，使其有别于其他竞争者。","content":"<html><body><article><p>据科技新报消息，全球半导体产业迈入人工智能（AI）与高效能运算（HPC）驱动的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00166\">新时代</a>，散热管理正逐渐成为影响芯片设计与制程能否突破的核心瓶颈。当3D堆叠、2.5D整合等先进封装架构持续推升芯片密度与功耗，传统陶瓷基板已难以满足热通量需求。</p><p>晶圆代工龙头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>正以一项大胆的材料转向回应这一挑战，那就是全面拥抱12英寸碳化硅（SiC）单晶基板，并逐步退出氮化镓（GaN）业务。此举不仅象征台积电在材料战略recalibration，更显示散热管理已经从“辅助技术”升格为“竞争优势”的关键。</p><p>碳化硅以宽能隙半导体闻名，过去主要用于高效率电力电子器件，如电动车逆变器、工业马达控制与新能源基础设施。然而，SiC的潜力不止于此，优异热导率可达约500W/mK，远高于常见陶瓷基板如氧化铝（Al2O3）或蓝宝石（Sapphire）。</p><p>AI加速器、数据中心处理器及AR智能眼镜等高密度应用逐步落地，散热空间受限问题日益严峻。尤其是在穿戴式设备中，微型芯片组件贴近眼睛，若无精确的热控将影响安全与稳定性。这使得台积电凭借长年在12英寸晶圆制程的经验，正推动以大尺寸单晶SiC取代传统陶瓷基板。这意味着不必重建制造体系，即能在既有产线导入新材料，兼顾良率与<span>成本优势</span>。</p><p>虽然，用于散热管理的SiC基板不需达到功率元件那般严苛的电性缺陷标准，但晶体完整性依旧至关重要。许多外在因素不仅会干扰声子传导，削弱热导率，还可能造成局部过热，进而影响机械强度与表面平整度。对12英寸大尺寸晶圆而言，翘曲与变形更是关键课题，因其直接影响芯片贴合与先进封装的良率。因此，业界焦点已从“消除电性缺陷”转向“确保体密度均匀、低孔隙率与高表面平整度”，这些条件被视为高良率量产SiC散热基板的前提。</p><p>报导表示，SiC结合了高热导率、强机械性与抗热冲击性，在2.5D与3D封装架构中展现出独特优势。例如在2.5D整合方面，芯片并排架设于硅或有机中介层上，信号连接短且高效，散热挑战主要在水平方向上。另外，在3D整合方面，芯片透过硅通孔（TSV）或混合键合垂直堆叠，连线密度极高，但散热压力也随之倍增。因此，SiC除了能作为被动散热材料，亦可搭配钻石、液态金属等先进散热方案，构成“混合式冷却”解决方案。</p><p>此前，台积电宣布，预计于2027年前逐步退出氮化镓（GaN）业务，将资源转投SiC领域。此举显示公司对市场与材料策略的重新评估。因为相比GaN在高频应用优势，SiC在热管理的全面性与可扩展性更符合台积电的长远布局。12英寸大尺寸化，不仅可降低单位成本，还能提升制程均匀性。尽管SiC在切片、抛光与平坦化上仍面临挑战，但台积电的既有设备与封装工艺能力，使其有望克服障碍，加速量产落地。</p><p>事实上，过去SiC几乎与电动车功率元件划上等号。然而，台积电正推动SiC跨入新应用，例如导电型N型SiC作为散热基板，在高效能处理器、AI加速器中承担热扩散角色；或者半绝缘型SiC为中介层（Interposer），以在芯片分割与chiplet设计，提供电性隔离与热传导兼顾的解决方案。这些新路径，意味着SiC不再只是“电力电子的代名词”，而是将成为AI与数据中心芯片“热管理骨干”的基石材料。</p><p>高阶材料领域，钻石与石墨烯虽拥有极高热导率（钻石可达1,000~2,200W/mK，单层石墨烯更高达3,000~5,000W/mK），但其高昂成本与制程规模化困难，使其难以成为主流。液态金属、导电凝胶与微流体冷却等替代方案虽有潜力，但在整合性与量产成本上亦存挑战。相较之下，SiC以“性能、机械强度与可量产性兼具”的特点，展现出最具实际性的折衷方案。</p><p>因此，台积电在12英寸晶圆制造上的深厚经验，使其有别于其他竞争者。不仅能以既有基础加速SiC平台建构，还能凭借高度制程控制能力，快速将材料优势转化为系统级散热方案。与此同时，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>推动背面供电（Backside Power Delivery）与热─功率协同设计，显示全球龙头厂商皆已将散热视为核心竞争力。</p><p><strong>参考信息</strong>：本文部分素材和图片来自网络公开信息，本平台发布仅为了传达一种不同观点，不代表对该观点赞同或支持。如果有任何问题，请联系<strong>19045661526（同微信）</strong>。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_png/OIc0Gsk6so1c8YrGKAC41eVWzR4icRs8bAQB3shNYuJXsGCNQUjh1FCba45FzzHoGN7P0CWDZEwmIGiaXDw6iaUJA/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg#imgIndex=1\"/><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/sz_mmbiz_jpg/OIc0Gsk6so0jNdNwOd1VU0HIh7jPczJ3ntQ8Picyf0peibNh57EC4ksvH97d6yxft0LarMVtKoC4iccwucSKYOiaKg/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&from=appmsg#imgIndex=3\"/></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>台积电锁定12英寸碳化硅新战场，布局AI时代散热关键材料</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n台积电锁定12英寸碳化硅新战场，布局AI时代散热关键材料\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-09-30 00:01 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2025093000191597b14afe&s=b><strong>DT新材料</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>据科技新报消息，全球半导体产业迈入人工智能（AI）与高效能运算（HPC）驱动的新时代，散热管理正逐渐成为影响芯片设计与制程能否突破的核心瓶颈。当3D堆叠、2.5D整合等先进封装架构持续推升芯片密度与功耗，传统陶瓷基板已难以满足热通量需求。晶圆代工龙头台积电正以一项大胆的材料转向回应这一挑战，那就是全面拥抱12英寸碳化硅（SiC）单晶基板，并逐步退出氮化镓（GaN）业务。此举不仅象征台积电在材料战略...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2025093000191597b14afe&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2237443978.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc SGD-H","LU1917777945.USD":"安联专题基金Cl AT Acc","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","BK4543":"AI","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) 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SGD-H1"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2025093000191597b14afe&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2571810355","content_text":"据科技新报消息，全球半导体产业迈入人工智能（AI）与高效能运算（HPC）驱动的新时代，散热管理正逐渐成为影响芯片设计与制程能否突破的核心瓶颈。当3D堆叠、2.5D整合等先进封装架构持续推升芯片密度与功耗，传统陶瓷基板已难以满足热通量需求。晶圆代工龙头台积电正以一项大胆的材料转向回应这一挑战，那就是全面拥抱12英寸碳化硅（SiC）单晶基板，并逐步退出氮化镓（GaN）业务。此举不仅象征台积电在材料战略recalibration，更显示散热管理已经从“辅助技术”升格为“竞争优势”的关键。碳化硅以宽能隙半导体闻名，过去主要用于高效率电力电子器件，如电动车逆变器、工业马达控制与新能源基础设施。然而，SiC的潜力不止于此，优异热导率可达约500W/mK，远高于常见陶瓷基板如氧化铝（Al2O3）或蓝宝石（Sapphire）。AI加速器、数据中心处理器及AR智能眼镜等高密度应用逐步落地，散热空间受限问题日益严峻。尤其是在穿戴式设备中，微型芯片组件贴近眼睛，若无精确的热控将影响安全与稳定性。这使得台积电凭借长年在12英寸晶圆制程的经验，正推动以大尺寸单晶SiC取代传统陶瓷基板。这意味着不必重建制造体系，即能在既有产线导入新材料，兼顾良率与成本优势。虽然，用于散热管理的SiC基板不需达到功率元件那般严苛的电性缺陷标准，但晶体完整性依旧至关重要。许多外在因素不仅会干扰声子传导，削弱热导率，还可能造成局部过热，进而影响机械强度与表面平整度。对12英寸大尺寸晶圆而言，翘曲与变形更是关键课题，因其直接影响芯片贴合与先进封装的良率。因此，业界焦点已从“消除电性缺陷”转向“确保体密度均匀、低孔隙率与高表面平整度”，这些条件被视为高良率量产SiC散热基板的前提。报导表示，SiC结合了高热导率、强机械性与抗热冲击性，在2.5D与3D封装架构中展现出独特优势。例如在2.5D整合方面，芯片并排架设于硅或有机中介层上，信号连接短且高效，散热挑战主要在水平方向上。另外，在3D整合方面，芯片透过硅通孔（TSV）或混合键合垂直堆叠，连线密度极高，但散热压力也随之倍增。因此，SiC除了能作为被动散热材料，亦可搭配钻石、液态金属等先进散热方案，构成“混合式冷却”解决方案。此前，台积电宣布，预计于2027年前逐步退出氮化镓（GaN）业务，将资源转投SiC领域。此举显示公司对市场与材料策略的重新评估。因为相比GaN在高频应用优势，SiC在热管理的全面性与可扩展性更符合台积电的长远布局。12英寸大尺寸化，不仅可降低单位成本，还能提升制程均匀性。尽管SiC在切片、抛光与平坦化上仍面临挑战，但台积电的既有设备与封装工艺能力，使其有望克服障碍，加速量产落地。事实上，过去SiC几乎与电动车功率元件划上等号。然而，台积电正推动SiC跨入新应用，例如导电型N型SiC作为散热基板，在高效能处理器、AI加速器中承担热扩散角色；或者半绝缘型SiC为中介层（Interposer），以在芯片分割与chiplet设计，提供电性隔离与热传导兼顾的解决方案。这些新路径，意味着SiC不再只是“电力电子的代名词”，而是将成为AI与数据中心芯片“热管理骨干”的基石材料。高阶材料领域，钻石与石墨烯虽拥有极高热导率（钻石可达1,000~2,200W/mK，单层石墨烯更高达3,000~5,000W/mK），但其高昂成本与制程规模化困难，使其难以成为主流。液态金属、导电凝胶与微流体冷却等替代方案虽有潜力，但在整合性与量产成本上亦存挑战。相较之下，SiC以“性能、机械强度与可量产性兼具”的特点，展现出最具实际性的折衷方案。因此，台积电在12英寸晶圆制造上的深厚经验，使其有别于其他竞争者。不仅能以既有基础加速SiC平台建构，还能凭借高度制程控制能力，快速将材料优势转化为系统级散热方案。与此同时，英特尔推动背面供电（Backside Power Delivery）与热─功率协同设计，显示全球龙头厂商皆已将散热视为核心竞争力。参考信息：本文部分素材和图片来自网络公开信息，本平台发布仅为了传达一种不同观点，不代表对该观点赞同或支持。如果有任何问题，请联系19045661526（同微信）。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"03145":0.6,"TSM":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1536,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":451642490491416,"gmtCreate":1751289717953,"gmtModify":1751289719693,"author":{"id":"3493795337639736","authorId":"3493795337639736","name":"Alphabets","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56b77e37f69d75881bb0e3579ec38396","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3493795337639736","idStr":"3493795337639736"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"谷歌的AI和云计算领域开始发力了","listText":"谷歌的AI和云计算领域开始发力了","text":"谷歌的AI和云计算领域开始发力了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/451642490491416","repostId":"2547319200","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2547319200","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1751246291,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2547319200?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-06-30 09:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"谷歌云挖角甲骨文CFO 加码AI与云业务竞争","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2547319200","media":"讯石光通讯网","summary":"ICC讯谷歌云正通过引入关键财务人才加速其AI与云业务扩张。\"Kobi的加入为谷歌云带来不同视角，这将增强其在云服务市场的竞争力。随着与亚马逊、微软和甲骨文在云与AI收入的竞争加剧，谷歌云正大力扩展数据中心规模并加强团队建设。本月早些时候，谷歌任命DeepMind CTO Koray Kavukcuoglu为新设立的首席AI架构师。目前，长期任职亚马逊的高管Swami Sivasubramanian正领导AWS的AI业务。今年3月AWS新成立的Agentic AI业务组即由其领导。","content":"<html><body><article><p> <strong>ICC</strong><strong>讯</strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>云正通过引入关键财务人才加速其AI与云业务扩张。根据LinkedIn资料显示，该公司已聘请<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>云基础设施首席财务官Kobi Bar-Nathan担任谷歌云新任CFO。这是谷歌云近几个月来一系列高管任命中的最新动作。</p><p> Bar-Nathan在甲骨文任职近六年，先后担任甲骨文云基础设施财务副总裁和CFO。此前他还在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>工作超过十年（2008-2018年），最终担任微软云基础设施财务总监。其前任Kathy Bonanno似乎已于五月离职。</p><p> \"Kobi的加入为谷歌云带来不同视角，这将增强其在云服务市场的竞争力。\"Recon Analytics分析师Daryl Schoolar表示，\"虽然部分甲骨文专有知识受保密协议限制，但他仍可运用在甲骨文积累的广泛市场洞察。\"</p><p> 谷歌云业务在多年亏损后，于2023年第一季度首次实现1.91亿美元运营利润，到2025年第一季度该数字已飙升至21亿美元。随着与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、微软和甲骨文在云与AI收入的竞争加剧，谷歌云正大力扩展数据中心规模并加强团队建设。</p><p> 本月早些时候，谷歌任命DeepMind CTO Koray Kavukcuoglu为新设立的首席AI架构师。今年1月，该公司还聘请前<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ILMN\">Illumina</a> CEO Francis DeSouza担任谷歌云COO，并从微软挖来Rehan Sheikh出任全球硅芯片技术与制造副总裁。</p><p> Schoolar补充道：\"谷歌云近期的招聘热潮向市场传递积极信号，表明公司坚定投入云业务。在竞争激烈的云服务市场，这对建立合作伙伴和客户的长期信心至关重要，可转化为相对于AWS、微软等对手的竞争优势。\"</p><p> 与此同时，亚马逊AWS也出现高管变动。据路透社最新报道，AWS生成式AI副总裁Vasi Philomin已离职。虽然其去向尚未明确，但LinkedIn资料显示Philomin深度参与了Amazon Bedrock、Amazon Q和Amazon CodeWhisperer等AI产品的开发。这是AWS不到一年内第二位离职的AI高管——2024年10月，任职15年的AWS AI副总裁Matt Wood离职加入普华永道担任CTIO。</p><p> 目前，长期任职亚马逊的高管Swami Sivasubramanian正领导AWS的AI业务。他最近担任AWS AI和数据副总裁，现为Agentic AI负责人。今年3月AWS新成立的Agentic AI业务组即由其领导。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n谷歌云挖角甲骨文CFO 加码AI与云业务竞争\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-06-30 09:18 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202506300919179793f056&s=b><strong>讯石光通讯网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>ICC讯谷歌云正通过引入关键财务人才加速其AI与云业务扩张。根据LinkedIn资料显示，该公司已聘请甲骨文云基础设施首席财务官Kobi Bar-Nathan担任谷歌云新任CFO。这是谷歌云近几个月来一系列高管任命中的最新动作。 Bar-Nathan在甲骨文任职近六年，先后担任甲骨文云基础设施财务副总裁和CFO。此前他还在微软工作超过十年（2008-2018年），最终担任微软云基础设施财务总监。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202506300919179793f056&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","SG9999015952.SGD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (SGD) ACC","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BDRTCR15.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC 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