个人中心 - 老虎社区

charmby

炒股养家的码农

IP属地：北京

帖子 · 591帖子 · 591
关注 · 0关注 · 0
粉丝 · 0粉丝 · 0

- charmbycharmby
  ·07-11 21:33
  我开仓了55手$NVDA 20250718 160.0 PUT$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单！
  85 评论
  点赞
  分享
  举报
- charmbycharmby
  ·07-01
  我平仓了63手$HOOD 20250711 87.0 PUT$ ,要多倒霉有多倒霉[流泪] [流泪] [流泪] aoao
  233 评论
  点赞
  分享
  举报
- charmbycharmby
  ·07-01
  我平仓了55手$NVDA 20250711 157.5 PUT$ ,每次都被另一只坑导致每次节奏都乱 tnd
  210 评论
  点赞
  分享
  举报
- charmbycharmby
  ·06-30
  原本备受看好的投资标的（美元、美股等）表现惨淡，来搞笑了别人历史新高
  半年过去了，华尔街的“脸都被打肿了”
  特朗普关税政策和地缘政治冲突彻底颠覆了华尔街年初预测。美元遭遇2005年来最差年初表现，标普500经历惊人暴跌和闪电式反弹。欧洲股市从投资洼地变为必备资产，基准指数跑赢标普500达16个百分点，新兴市场打破连年跑输魔咒，货币普遍兑美元走强，股市为股东创造1.8万亿美元财富增长。
  半年过去了，华尔街的“脸都被打肿了”
  247 评论
  点赞
  分享
  举报
- charmbycharmby
  ·06-28
  我平仓了47手$NVDA 20250711 157.5 PUT$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单！
  534 评论
  点赞
  分享
  举报
- charmbycharmby
  ·06-20
  我平仓了108手$NVDA 20250627 140.0 PUT$ ,！有病开盘诱多忍不住全割了 fcccccck
  369 评论
  1
  分享
  举报
- charmbycharmby
  ·06-20
  我平仓了25.0股$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单！
  465 评论
  点赞
  分享
  举报
- charmbycharmby
  ·06-12
  $NVDA 20250620 140.0 PUT$ 狗屎啊。。英伟达明明有问题还能涨[笑哭] [笑哭] [笑哭]
  617 评论
  1
  分享
  举报
- charmbycharmby
  ·06-09
  我平仓了29手$NVDA 20250620 145.0 PUT$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单！
  419 评论
  点赞
  分享
  举报
- charmbycharmby
  ·06-06
  我平仓了200手$APLD 20250620 13.0 PUT$ ,等趋势改变筹码派发中
  667 评论
  点赞
  分享
  举报

热议股票

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isCurrentUser":false,"userPageInfo":{"id":"3494390725694021","uuid":"3494390725694021","gmtCreate":1531297188172,"gmtModify":1749221178826,"name":"charmby","pinyin":"charmby","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"炒股养家的码农","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0555fde187648aa2f83f9fe88db109b","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":159,"headSize":62,"tweetSize":591,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":900,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":0,"name":"","nameTw":"","represent":"","factor":"","iconColor":"","bgColor":""},"themeCounts":1,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-3","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"传说交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到300次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.12.06","exceedPercentage":"93.12%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-3","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资合伙人虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到100万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.11.09","exceedPercentage":"93.92%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.11.01","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.10.08","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-4","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"明星虎友","description":"加入老虎社区2000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6304700d92ad91c7a33e2e92ec32ecc1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.10.07","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.10.08","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"location":"北京","starInvestorFollowerNum":145,"starInvestorFlag":true,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":437,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":27,"ror":0.35,"winRationPercentage":71.84466,"showRor":true,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"page":1,"watchlist":null,"tweetList":[{"id":455489876877824,"gmtCreate":1752240809248,"gmtModify":1752267588782,"author":{"id":"3494390725694021","authorId":"3494390725694021","name":"charmby","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0555fde187648aa2f83f9fe88db109b","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494390725694021","authorIdStr":"3494390725694021"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了55手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20250718 160.0 PUT\">$NVDA 20250718 160.0 PUT$&nbsp;</a>,来看看我最新分享的订单！","listText":"我开仓了55手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20250718 160.0 PUT\">$NVDA 20250718 160.0 PUT$&nbsp;</a>,来看看我最新分享的订单！","text":"我开仓了55手$NVDA 20250718 160.0 PUT$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/455489876877824","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":85,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":452010886472360,"gmtCreate":1751380207825,"gmtModify":1751381558648,"author":{"id":"3494390725694021","authorId":"3494390725694021","name":"charmby","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0555fde187648aa2f83f9fe88db109b","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494390725694021","authorIdStr":"3494390725694021"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我平仓了63手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/HOOD 20250711 87.0 PUT\">$HOOD 20250711 87.0 PUT$&nbsp;</a>,要多倒霉有多倒霉[流泪]&nbsp; [流泪]&nbsp; [流泪]&nbsp; aoao","listText":"我平仓了63手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/HOOD 20250711 87.0 PUT\">$HOOD 20250711 87.0 PUT$&nbsp;</a>,要多倒霉有多倒霉[流泪]&nbsp; [流泪]&nbsp; [流泪]&nbsp; aoao","text":"我平仓了63手$HOOD 20250711 87.0 PUT$ ,要多倒霉有多倒霉[流泪] [流泪] [流泪] aoao","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/452010886472360","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":233,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":452012043629136,"gmtCreate":1751380045262,"gmtModify":1751380243890,"author":{"id":"3494390725694021","authorId":"3494390725694021","name":"charmby","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0555fde187648aa2f83f9fe88db109b","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494390725694021","authorIdStr":"3494390725694021"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我平仓了55手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20250711 157.5 PUT\">$NVDA 20250711 157.5 PUT$&nbsp;</a>,每次都被另一只坑 导致每次节奏都乱 tnd","listText":"我平仓了55手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20250711 157.5 PUT\">$NVDA 20250711 157.5 PUT$&nbsp;</a>,每次都被另一只坑 导致每次节奏都乱 tnd","text":"我平仓了55手$NVDA 20250711 157.5 PUT$ ,每次都被另一只坑 导致每次节奏都乱 tnd","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/452012043629136","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":210,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":451514553749504,"gmtCreate":1751259292054,"gmtModify":1751260196777,"author":{"id":"3494390725694021","authorId":"3494390725694021","name":"charmby","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0555fde187648aa2f83f9fe88db109b","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494390725694021","authorIdStr":"3494390725694021"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"原本备受看好的投资标的（美元、美股等）表现惨淡， 来搞笑了 别人历史新高","listText":"原本备受看好的投资标的（美元、美股等）表现惨淡， 来搞笑了 别人历史新高","text":"原本备受看好的投资标的（美元、美股等）表现惨淡， 来搞笑了 别人历史新高","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/451514553749504","repostId":"2547053912","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2547053912","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1751257194,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2547053912?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-06-30 12:19","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"半年过去了，华尔街的“脸都被打肿了”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2547053912","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"特朗普关税政策和地缘政治冲突彻底颠覆了华尔街年初预测。美元遭遇2005年来最差年初表现，标普500经历惊人暴跌和闪电式反弹。欧洲股市从投资洼地变为必备资产，基准指数跑赢标普500达16个百分点，新兴市场打破连年跑输魔咒，货币普遍兑美元走强，股市为股东创造1.8万亿美元财富增长。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>特朗普关税政策和地缘政治冲突彻底颠覆了华尔街年初的预测，原本备受看好的投资标的（美元、美股等）表现惨淡，意想不到的赢家（欧洲股市、新兴市场）却脱颖而出。</p><p>自2025年初华尔街发布预测以来的六个月里，特朗普政策不确定性和世界冲突彻底打破了市场对美国资产和经济实力及主导地位的假设。</p><p>美元遭遇自2005年以来最糟糕的年初表现，标普500指数经历了惊人的暴跌和闪电式的反弹。与此同时，<strong>欧洲股市从投资洼地摇身一变成为投资者必备资产</strong>。</p><p>新兴市场终于迎来复苏，人工智能公司蓬勃发展，货币普遍兑美元走强，<strong>2025年上半年为股东创造了1.8万亿美元的财富增长</strong>。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>资产管理固定收益宏观策略主管Simon Dangoor表示，<strong>过去六个月市场发生了&#34;非常重大的演变&#34;，年初基于中期趋势制定的任何主题都受到了考验</strong>。</p><h2 id=\"id_648985330\">美元霸权地位动摇</h2><p>特朗普的低税收、高关税政策原本被预期将推高通胀并降低美联储降息可能性，这些因素本应推动美元在2025年保持强势。然而现实截然相反，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">美元指数</a>录得自2005年以来最差的年初表现。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/054a27eefbc32ffa78421356725b5acf\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"673\"/></p><p>特朗普4月初公布了所谓的&#34;对等关税”范围广泛且极具惩罚性，引发了对美国经济衰退的担忧，并催生了特朗普试图通过美元贬值来提振国内制造业的猜测。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0J6Y.UK\">法国兴业银行</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>此前都未预期美元在上半年出现转折。</p><p>据报道，由Meera Chandan领导的摩根大通团队最新表示，美元与利率和股票联系的减弱可能是结构性弱点的信号，预计美元强势指标到年底将再下跌2%。</p><h2 id=\"id_4117194003\">美股大起大落后重获青睐</h2><p>投资者年初对美股配置创纪录新高，受强劲经济和人工智能押注鼓舞。然而这种乐观情绪在几个月内几乎完全消失，先是中国初创公司DeepSeek挑战美国在AI竞赛中的主导地位，随后特朗普关税引发经济衰退担忧。</p><p>科技股集中的纳斯达克100指数在2月峰值至4月低点间蒸发了近7万亿美元市值。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>基金经理调查显示，3月份美股敞口出现有史以来最大降幅。</p><p>但特朗普4月下旬暂停部分高关税的决定成为转折点。标普500指数创下历史新高，经济数据显示增长稳健，科技股再度受到追捧。</p><p>State Street Global Markets高级多资产策略师Marija Veitmane表示：</p><blockquote><p>&#34;我对美股一如既往看涨，它们仍提供最佳盈利前景，增长最快且最具可预测性。&#34;</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_3181397212\">亚洲货币强势反弹</h2><p>在全球其他央行纷纷降息之际，日本央行准备加息，交易员们在2025年伊始对日元反弹充满信心。在今年年初的时候，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDJPY.FOREX\">美元/日元</a>交投于159水平附近。</p><p>六个月之后，摩根大通资产管理公司和Brandywine全球投资管理公司被证明是正确的，今年以来，美元兑日元跌近9%，目前<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002200\">交投</a>于145左右。</p><p>在特朗普关税引发的市场混乱中，对避险资产的需求激增，日元在4月得到了显著提振。美元/日元跌4.6%，最低跌至139.89。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9beb5102c8637f7f58f711a0db097ff1\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"675\"/></p><p>Jupiter Asset Management的纳什（Mark Nash）在今年1月就开始为日元升值做准备。他预计到年底日元将升至1美元兑120元人民币，较目前水平上涨约17%。</p><p>与此同时，美国贸易关税原本被预期将冲击人民币，但迄今为止美元自身的急剧抛售颠覆了这一预测。</p><p>野村在12月预测人民币离岸汇率将在5月份跌至每美元7.6，摩根大通预期二季度为7.5。相反，人民币今年飙升1.8%，上周四一度触及7.1565，为七个月高点。</p><h2 id=\"id_2466637238\">全球债券分化加剧</h2><p>NatWest Markets固定收益交易全球主管Jared Noering表示，在动荡中，许多投资者对一笔“救了他们一命”的交易心存感激。</p><p>短期政府债券在央行因通胀进一步缓解而降息的推动下表现良好。相比之下，长期债券因政府承担更多债务以填补日益加深的财政赤字并增加公共支出而面临压力。</p><p>围绕这种分歧构建的押注基本上在全球各地都有出现，包括在美国，市场仍对政府的税收和支出计划感到不安。衡量较长期美国国债所谓期限溢价的指标大幅飙升，表明买家正要求为猖獗的借款提供更高的补偿。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">太平洋</a>投资管理公司和Allspring Global Investments正确预测了全球债券市场短期和长期收益率的差异。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>减持长期美国国债也是正确的。</p><h2 id=\"id_3130662695\">欧股和新兴市场成最大赢家</h2><p>年初很难找到欧洲股票的拥趸，更别说押注其将跑赢美股的投行了。但是六个月后，对经济疲软和关税威胁的担忧被德国释放数千亿欧元国防支出的计划所抵消，</p><p>截至6月27日，基准斯托克600指数以美元计价跑赢标普500指数16个百分点，创2016年以来最佳相对表现。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EURUSD.FOREX\">欧元/美元</a>飙升至1.17美元，打破了年初与美元平价的普遍预测。</p><p>花旗集团欧洲和全球股票策略主管Beata Manthey是去年底支持欧洲股票的少数声音之一。摩根大通和高盛的目标被证明过于谨慎。高盛首席全球股票策略师Peter Oppenheimer表示，</p><blockquote><p>“情况已大不相同，非常激进的关税不太可能完全实施。&#34;</p></blockquote><p>新兴市场方面，自2017年以来每年都跑输美股的魔咒终于被打破。来自中国、韩国等人工智能公司繁荣发展，加上货币兑美元普遍走强，新兴市场2025年已为股东增加1.8万亿美元财富，市值达到创纪录的29万亿美元。</p><p>InTouch Capital Markets策略师Bernd Berg表示，得益于温和通胀和可观增长率，预计资金流入将持续。Berg表示：</p><blockquote><p>&#34;地缘政治紧张局势并未破坏这轮涨势。&#34;</p></blockquote><p>风险提示及免责条款</p><p> 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>半年过去了，华尔街的“脸都被打肿了”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n半年过去了，华尔街的“脸都被打肿了”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-06-30 12:19 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3750070><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>特朗普关税政策和地缘政治冲突彻底颠覆了华尔街年初的预测，原本备受看好的投资标的（美元、美股等）表现惨淡，意想不到的赢家（欧洲股市、新兴市场）却脱颖而出。自2025年初华尔街发布预测以来的六个月里，特朗普政策不确定性和世界冲突彻底打破了市场对美国资产和经济实力及主导地位的假设。美元遭遇自2005年以来最糟糕的年初表现，标普500指数经历了惊人的暴跌和闪电式的反弹。与此同时，欧洲股市从投资洼地摇身一变...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3750070\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d4287e55e5fbfd6c02d7bf89e2405e3","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3750070","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2547053912","content_text":"特朗普关税政策和地缘政治冲突彻底颠覆了华尔街年初的预测，原本备受看好的投资标的（美元、美股等）表现惨淡，意想不到的赢家（欧洲股市、新兴市场）却脱颖而出。自2025年初华尔街发布预测以来的六个月里，特朗普政策不确定性和世界冲突彻底打破了市场对美国资产和经济实力及主导地位的假设。美元遭遇自2005年以来最糟糕的年初表现，标普500指数经历了惊人的暴跌和闪电式的反弹。与此同时，欧洲股市从投资洼地摇身一变成为投资者必备资产。新兴市场终于迎来复苏，人工智能公司蓬勃发展，货币普遍兑美元走强，2025年上半年为股东创造了1.8万亿美元的财富增长。高盛资产管理固定收益宏观策略主管Simon Dangoor表示，过去六个月市场发生了\"非常重大的演变\"，年初基于中期趋势制定的任何主题都受到了考验。美元霸权地位动摇特朗普的低税收、高关税政策原本被预期将推高通胀并降低美联储降息可能性，这些因素本应推动美元在2025年保持强势。然而现实截然相反，美元指数录得自2005年以来最差的年初表现。特朗普4月初公布了所谓的\"对等关税”范围广泛且极具惩罚性，引发了对美国经济衰退的担忧，并催生了特朗普试图通过美元贬值来提振国内制造业的猜测。法国兴业银行、摩根士丹利和摩根大通此前都未预期美元在上半年出现转折。据报道，由Meera Chandan领导的摩根大通团队最新表示，美元与利率和股票联系的减弱可能是结构性弱点的信号，预计美元强势指标到年底将再下跌2%。美股大起大落后重获青睐投资者年初对美股配置创纪录新高，受强劲经济和人工智能押注鼓舞。然而这种乐观情绪在几个月内几乎完全消失，先是中国初创公司DeepSeek挑战美国在AI竞赛中的主导地位，随后特朗普关税引发经济衰退担忧。科技股集中的纳斯达克100指数在2月峰值至4月低点间蒸发了近7万亿美元市值。美国银行基金经理调查显示，3月份美股敞口出现有史以来最大降幅。但特朗普4月下旬暂停部分高关税的决定成为转折点。标普500指数创下历史新高，经济数据显示增长稳健，科技股再度受到追捧。State Street Global Markets高级多资产策略师Marija Veitmane表示：\"我对美股一如既往看涨，它们仍提供最佳盈利前景，增长最快且最具可预测性。\"亚洲货币强势反弹在全球其他央行纷纷降息之际，日本央行准备加息，交易员们在2025年伊始对日元反弹充满信心。在今年年初的时候，美元/日元交投于159水平附近。六个月之后，摩根大通资产管理公司和Brandywine全球投资管理公司被证明是正确的，今年以来，美元兑日元跌近9%，目前交投于145左右。在特朗普关税引发的市场混乱中，对避险资产的需求激增，日元在4月得到了显著提振。美元/日元跌4.6%，最低跌至139.89。Jupiter Asset Management的纳什（Mark Nash）在今年1月就开始为日元升值做准备。他预计到年底日元将升至1美元兑120元人民币，较目前水平上涨约17%。与此同时，美国贸易关税原本被预期将冲击人民币，但迄今为止美元自身的急剧抛售颠覆了这一预测。野村在12月预测人民币离岸汇率将在5月份跌至每美元7.6，摩根大通预期二季度为7.5。相反，人民币今年飙升1.8%，上周四一度触及7.1565，为七个月高点。全球债券分化加剧NatWest Markets固定收益交易全球主管Jared Noering表示，在动荡中，许多投资者对一笔“救了他们一命”的交易心存感激。短期政府债券在央行因通胀进一步缓解而降息的推动下表现良好。相比之下，长期债券因政府承担更多债务以填补日益加深的财政赤字并增加公共支出而面临压力。围绕这种分歧构建的押注基本上在全球各地都有出现，包括在美国，市场仍对政府的税收和支出计划感到不安。衡量较长期美国国债所谓期限溢价的指标大幅飙升，表明买家正要求为猖獗的借款提供更高的补偿。太平洋投资管理公司和Allspring Global Investments正确预测了全球债券市场短期和长期收益率的差异。贝莱德减持长期美国国债也是正确的。欧股和新兴市场成最大赢家年初很难找到欧洲股票的拥趸，更别说押注其将跑赢美股的投行了。但是六个月后，对经济疲软和关税威胁的担忧被德国释放数千亿欧元国防支出的计划所抵消，截至6月27日，基准斯托克600指数以美元计价跑赢标普500指数16个百分点，创2016年以来最佳相对表现。欧元/美元飙升至1.17美元，打破了年初与美元平价的普遍预测。花旗集团欧洲和全球股票策略主管Beata Manthey是去年底支持欧洲股票的少数声音之一。摩根大通和高盛的目标被证明过于谨慎。高盛首席全球股票策略师Peter Oppenheimer表示，“情况已大不相同，非常激进的关税不太可能完全实施。\"新兴市场方面，自2017年以来每年都跑输美股的魔咒终于被打破。来自中国、韩国等人工智能公司繁荣发展，加上货币兑美元普遍走强，新兴市场2025年已为股东增加1.8万亿美元财富，市值达到创纪录的29万亿美元。InTouch Capital Markets策略师Bernd Berg表示，得益于温和通胀和可观增长率，预计资金流入将持续。Berg表示：\"地缘政治紧张局势并未破坏这轮涨势。\"风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"MESmain":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SPY":0.67,"SSO":0.6,"UPRO":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":247,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":450627523408208,"gmtCreate":1751042772887,"gmtModify":1751042775460,"author":{"id":"3494390725694021","authorId":"3494390725694021","name":"charmby","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0555fde187648aa2f83f9fe88db109b","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494390725694021","authorIdStr":"3494390725694021"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我平仓了47手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20250711 157.5 PUT\">$NVDA 20250711 157.5 PUT$&nbsp;</a>,来看看我最新分享的订单！","listText":"我平仓了47手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20250711 157.5 PUT\">$NVDA 20250711 157.5 PUT$&nbsp;</a>,来看看我最新分享的订单！","text":"我平仓了47手$NVDA 20250711 157.5 PUT$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/450627523408208","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":534,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":448123393728944,"gmtCreate":1750431374112,"gmtModify":1750431647320,"author":{"id":"3494390725694021","authorId":"3494390725694021","name":"charmby","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0555fde187648aa2f83f9fe88db109b","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494390725694021","authorIdStr":"3494390725694021"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我平仓了108手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20250627 140.0 PUT\">$NVDA 20250627 140.0 PUT$&nbsp;</a>,！有病 开盘诱多 忍不住全割了 fcccccck","listText":"我平仓了108手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20250627 140.0 PUT\">$NVDA 20250627 140.0 PUT$&nbsp;</a>,！有病 开盘诱多 忍不住全割了 fcccccck","text":"我平仓了108手$NVDA 20250627 140.0 PUT$ ,！有病 开盘诱多 忍不住全割了 fcccccck","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/448123393728944","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":369,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":448115415334960,"gmtCreate":1750429583598,"gmtModify":1750429585704,"author":{"id":"3494390725694021","authorId":"3494390725694021","name":"charmby","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0555fde187648aa2f83f9fe88db109b","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494390725694021","authorIdStr":"3494390725694021"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我平仓了25.0股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRCL\">$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$&nbsp;</a>,来看看我最新分享的订单！","listText":"我平仓了25.0股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRCL\">$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$&nbsp;</a>,来看看我最新分享的订单！","text":"我平仓了25.0股$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/448115415334960","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":465,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":445308149744464,"gmtCreate":1749739396645,"gmtModify":1749739426869,"author":{"id":"3494390725694021","authorId":"3494390725694021","name":"charmby","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0555fde187648aa2f83f9fe88db109b","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494390725694021","authorIdStr":"3494390725694021"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20250620 140.0 PUT\">$NVDA 20250620 140.0 PUT$</a> 狗屎啊。。英伟达明明有问题还能涨[笑哭]&nbsp; [笑哭]&nbsp; [笑哭]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20250620 140.0 PUT\">$NVDA 20250620 140.0 PUT$</a> 狗屎啊。。英伟达明明有问题还能涨[笑哭]&nbsp; [笑哭]&nbsp; [笑哭]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"$NVDA 20250620 140.0 PUT$ 狗屎啊。。英伟达明明有问题还能涨[笑哭] [笑哭] [笑哭]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/696a02ab9fb7afaaee945fcb592be73d","width":"981","height":"1637"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/445308149744464","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":617,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":444230694323024,"gmtCreate":1749476346005,"gmtModify":1749476347734,"author":{"id":"3494390725694021","authorId":"3494390725694021","name":"charmby","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0555fde187648aa2f83f9fe88db109b","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494390725694021","authorIdStr":"3494390725694021"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我平仓了29手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20250620 145.0 PUT\">$NVDA 20250620 145.0 PUT$&nbsp;</a>,来看看我最新分享的订单！","listText":"我平仓了29手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20250620 145.0 PUT\">$NVDA 20250620 145.0 PUT$&nbsp;</a>,来看看我最新分享的订单！","text":"我平仓了29手$NVDA 20250620 145.0 PUT$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/444230694323024","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":419,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":443192480362728,"gmtCreate":1749223554035,"gmtModify":1749224398484,"author":{"id":"3494390725694021","authorId":"3494390725694021","name":"charmby","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0555fde187648aa2f83f9fe88db109b","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494390725694021","authorIdStr":"3494390725694021"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我平仓了200手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/APLD 20250620 13.0 PUT\">$APLD 20250620 13.0 PUT$&nbsp;</a>,等趋势改变 筹码派发中","listText":"我平仓了200手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/APLD 20250620 13.0 PUT\">$APLD 20250620 13.0 PUT$&nbsp;</a>,等趋势改变 筹码派发中","text":"我平仓了200手$APLD 20250620 13.0 PUT$ ,等趋势改变 筹码派发中","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/443192480362728","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":667,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}