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不做赔本交易
不做赔本交易
·
15:28
$快手-W(01024)$
市盈率只有九的互联网科技公司，搞笑呢吧？
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不做赔本交易
不做赔本交易
·
15:19
$微型WTI原油主连 2605(MCLmain)$
洗盘尔
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不做赔本交易
不做赔本交易
·
03-30 10:21
$比亚迪股份(01211)$
你石油涨价关我电池什么事儿？电池无论从上下游都跟石油不搭边啊，只要锂矿稳定就可以
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不做赔本交易
不做赔本交易
·
03-27
$微软(MSFT)$
近20年rsi低于十的只有两次
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不做赔本交易
不做赔本交易
·
03-27
$可口可乐(KO)$
我去，这家伙盘钱居然是红的
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不做赔本交易
不做赔本交易
·
03-27
得了，有这种标题就说明黄金白银的拐点还没到，反指标
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不做赔本交易
不做赔本交易
·
03-26
$微软(MSFT)$
“AI颠覆一切”触发企业效率革命 微软宣布重组人力资源部门 Block与Meta暴力裁员，微软则选择先重组HR。AI效率风暴正从代码端席卷至 https://news.**.com/t/post/70668897/I3ry7QQmra
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不做赔本交易
不做赔本交易
·
03-25
$Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc(FFAI)$
跌到0.01的时候，我们就梭哈进场，到时候可能又是100倍，价格拉的特别高之后，然后就又会开始增发，讲故事，到处卖股票，
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不做赔本交易
不做赔本交易
·
03-25
$微软(MSFT)$
这哥们到底什么情况呀？纳指都反弹了0.8个点了，这个货才他妈0.57个点
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不做赔本交易
不做赔本交易
·
03-24
这篇文章就是在告诉你，如果最近七巨头有反弹，赶紧跑，大跌在路上
“七巨头”与标普500相关性罕见转负，科技股下跌中酝酿复苏契机？
追踪"华丽七巨头"的指数与标普500等权重指数之间的相关性，已于2月23日转为负值，表明两者走势不再同步。此后，随着伊朗战争扰乱市场并引发油价飙升，这一负相关性持续加深。与此同时，标普500指数中的其他股票则因难以走出熊市而表现沉寂。从2023年1月到3月，"七巨头"指数攀升了45%，而常规标普500指数仅上涨了7%。考虑到这七家公司约占标普500指数市值加权权重的三分之一，科技巨头的复苏对整体市场将是一个重大的积极因素。
“七巨头”与标普500相关性罕见转负，科技股下跌中酝酿复苏契机？
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洗盘尔","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/548882010199960","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":49,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":548101258699008,"gmtCreate":1774837263952,"gmtModify":1774837266029,"author":{"id":"3498016203798034","authorId":"3498016203798034","name":"不做赔本交易","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9532d01c286797f7d36bfcb5ddfdcaf9","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3498016203798034","authorIdStr":"3498016203798034"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01211\">$比亚迪股份(01211)$ </a> 你石油涨价关我电池什么事儿？电池无论从上下游都跟石油不搭边啊，只要锂矿稳定就可以","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01211\">$比亚迪股份(01211)$ </a> 你石油涨价关我电池什么事儿？电池无论从上下游都跟石油不搭边啊，只要锂矿稳定就可以","text":"$比亚迪股份(01211)$ 你石油涨价关我电池什么事儿？电池无论从上下游都跟石油不搭边啊，只要锂矿稳定就可以","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/548101258699008","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":346,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":547205122504480,"gmtCreate":1774618554194,"gmtModify":1774618556542,"author":{"id":"3498016203798034","authorId":"3498016203798034","name":"不做赔本交易","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9532d01c286797f7d36bfcb5ddfdcaf9","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3498016203798034","authorIdStr":"3498016203798034"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$ </a> 近20年rsi低于十的只有两次","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$ </a> 近20年rsi低于十的只有两次","text":"$微软(MSFT)$ 近20年rsi低于十的只有两次","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/547205122504480","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":276,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":547169792598744,"gmtCreate":1774609858711,"gmtModify":1774611203564,"author":{"id":"3498016203798034","authorId":"3498016203798034","name":"不做赔本交易","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9532d01c286797f7d36bfcb5ddfdcaf9","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3498016203798034","authorIdStr":"3498016203798034"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">$可口可乐(KO)$ </a> 我去，这家伙盘钱居然是红的","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">$可口可乐(KO)$ </a> 我去，这家伙盘钱居然是红的","text":"$可口可乐(KO)$ 我去，这家伙盘钱居然是红的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/547169792598744","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1292,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":547031071543768,"gmtCreate":1774576085946,"gmtModify":1774576089325,"author":{"id":"3498016203798034","authorId":"3498016203798034","name":"不做赔本交易","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9532d01c286797f7d36bfcb5ddfdcaf9","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3498016203798034","authorIdStr":"3498016203798034"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"得了，有这种标题就说明黄金白银的拐点还没到，反指标","listText":"得了，有这种标题就说明黄金白银的拐点还没到，反指标","text":"得了，有这种标题就说明黄金白银的拐点还没到，反指标","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/547031071543768","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":702,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3574702828580493","authorId":"3574702828580493","name":"觉醒之日","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e83e2ecd90fa12d7de59e9bd8564ad87","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574702828580493","authorIdStr":"3574702828580493"},"content":"今天开始做空白银，拿到手抓紧撤","text":"今天开始做空白银，拿到手抓紧撤","html":"今天开始做空白银，拿到手抓紧撤"},{"author":{"id":"9000000000000524","authorId":"9000000000000524","name":"KarenAldridge","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000524","authorIdStr":"9000000000000524"},"content":"反指标一出，安心等着跌吧！","text":"反指标一出，安心等着跌吧！","html":"反指标一出，安心等着跌吧！"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":546850971858504,"gmtCreate":1774532028092,"gmtModify":1774532712379,"author":{"id":"3498016203798034","authorId":"3498016203798034","name":"不做赔本交易","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9532d01c286797f7d36bfcb5ddfdcaf9","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3498016203798034","authorIdStr":"3498016203798034"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$ </a> “AI颠覆一切”触发企业效率革命 微软宣布重组人力资源部门 Block与Meta暴力裁员，微软则选择先重组HR。AI效率风暴正从代码端席卷至 https://news.**.com/t/post/70668897/I3ry7QQmra","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$ </a> “AI颠覆一切”触发企业效率革命 微软宣布重组人力资源部门 Block与Meta暴力裁员，微软则选择先重组HR。AI效率风暴正从代码端席卷至 https://news.**.com/t/post/70668897/I3ry7QQmra","text":"$微软(MSFT)$ “AI颠覆一切”触发企业效率革命 微软宣布重组人力资源部门 Block与Meta暴力裁员，微软则选择先重组HR。AI效率风暴正从代码端席卷至 https://news.**.com/t/post/70668897/I3ry7QQmra","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/546850971858504","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1427,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":546397875130928,"gmtCreate":1774407356513,"gmtModify":1774407358521,"author":{"id":"3498016203798034","authorId":"3498016203798034","name":"不做赔本交易","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9532d01c286797f7d36bfcb5ddfdcaf9","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3498016203798034","authorIdStr":"3498016203798034"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFAI\">$Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc(FFAI)$ </a> 跌到0.01的时候，我们就梭哈进场，到时候可能又是100倍，价格拉的特别高之后，然后就又会开始增发，讲故事，到处卖股票，","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFAI\">$Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc(FFAI)$ </a> 跌到0.01的时候，我们就梭哈进场，到时候可能又是100倍，价格拉的特别高之后，然后就又会开始增发，讲故事，到处卖股票，","text":"$Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc(FFAI)$ 跌到0.01的时候，我们就梭哈进场，到时候可能又是100倍，价格拉的特别高之后，然后就又会开始增发，讲故事，到处卖股票，","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/546397875130928","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1329,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4179020360458732","authorId":"4179020360458732","name":"退堂鼓演奏家","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3cb4ce117b6cb57b7e714c2a6e39746","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4179020360458732","authorIdStr":"4179020360458732"},"content":"跌到0.1连续10个交易日强制退市","text":"跌到0.1连续10个交易日强制退市","html":"跌到0.1连续10个交易日强制退市"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":546344472451000,"gmtCreate":1774394310624,"gmtModify":1774402566364,"author":{"id":"3498016203798034","authorId":"3498016203798034","name":"不做赔本交易","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9532d01c286797f7d36bfcb5ddfdcaf9","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3498016203798034","authorIdStr":"3498016203798034"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$ </a> 这哥们到底什么情况呀？纳指都反弹了0.8个点了，这个货才他妈0.57个点","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$ </a> 这哥们到底什么情况呀？纳指都反弹了0.8个点了，这个货才他妈0.57个点","text":"$微软(MSFT)$ 这哥们到底什么情况呀？纳指都反弹了0.8个点了，这个货才他妈0.57个点","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/546344472451000","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":404,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":546056916653448,"gmtCreate":1774324063698,"gmtModify":1774324066769,"author":{"id":"3498016203798034","authorId":"3498016203798034","name":"不做赔本交易","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9532d01c286797f7d36bfcb5ddfdcaf9","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3498016203798034","authorIdStr":"3498016203798034"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章就是在告诉你，如果最近七巨头有反弹，赶紧跑，大跌在路上","listText":"这篇文章就是在告诉你，如果最近七巨头有反弹，赶紧跑，大跌在路上","text":"这篇文章就是在告诉你，如果最近七巨头有反弹，赶紧跑，大跌在路上","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/546056916653448","repostId":"2621747844","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2621747844","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1774226659,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2621747844?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-23 08:44","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"“七巨头”与标普500相关性罕见转负，科技股下跌中酝酿复苏契机？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2621747844","media":"智通财经","summary":"追踪\"华丽七巨头\"的指数与标普500等权重指数之间的相关性，已于2月23日转为负值，表明两者走势不再同步。此后，随着伊朗战争扰乱市场并引发油价飙升，这一负相关性持续加深。与此同时，标普500指数中的其他股票则因难以走出熊市而表现沉寂。从2023年1月到3月，\"七巨头\"指数攀升了45%，而常规标普500指数仅上涨了7%。考虑到这七家公司约占标普500指数市值加权权重的三分之一，科技巨头的复苏对整体市场将是一个重大的积极因素。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>智通财经APP获悉，在这轮长达三年的牛市行情中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数绝大部分时间都与科技巨头的股价亦步亦趋。但两者之间的这种紧密关联正突然瓦解——这对走势低迷的科技股而言，或许是件好事。追踪"华丽七巨头"(Magnificent Seven)的指数与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XDEW.UK\">标普500等权</a>重指数(通过剔除最大公司权重来更准确反映所有股票整体表现的指数)之间的相关性，已于2月23日转为负值，表明两者走势不再同步。此后，随着伊朗战争扰乱市场并引发油价飙升，这一负相关性持续加深。</p><p>"我们从未经历过速度如此之快的科技周期，"Futurum Group首席执行官丹尼尔·纽曼表示，"我们完全无法预测接下来会发生什么。"</p><p>自2016年初以来，当前的相关性负值程度仅出现过一次。在2023年第一季度，随着OpenAI于2022年11月30日发布ChatGPT后掀起的人工智能热潮，"七巨头"——包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>母公司Alphabet、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta Platforms</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>——股价一马当先。与此同时，标普500指数中的其他股票则因难以走出熊市而表现沉寂。</p><p>从2023年1月到3月，"七巨头"指数攀升了45%，而常规标普500指数仅上涨了7%。最终，科技股的热情蔓延至整个市场，标普500指数在2023年全年上涨24%，并在2024年再涨23%。</p><p>此番相关性瓦解之前，由于市场对巨额的AI支出感到担忧，"七巨头"已连续数月表现落后于大盘。从去年10月底到今年2月，彭博"华丽七巨头"指数下跌了7.3%，而同期由能源和材料等周期性板块领衔的标普500等权重指数则上涨了8.9%。</p><p>在相关性转为负值后的几周里，两大指数的走势互换了位置。尽管"七巨头"本月已跌入回调区间，但其跌幅仍小于更广泛的市场基准。</p><p>时移势易</p><p>当然，当前市场的处境与三年前已大相径庭，伊朗战争的阴云笼罩着一切。与此同时，"七巨头"的表现还受到战事爆发前就已存在的担忧的拖累，即对AI的巨额投入以及这项新兴技术将带来的颠覆性影响。</p><p>"几年前，当'七巨头'相关性更高时，英伟达不断交出超预期的业绩修正，" <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JHG\">骏利亨德森</a>投资组合经理乔纳森·科夫斯基表示，"当时我们并不那么担心资本支出和投资回报率，对AI和软件也没有那么多顾虑，苹果也没有面临内存短缺问题。"</p><p>上一次相关性处于如此负值水平时，标志着"七巨头"一轮显著超额回报期的开始。从2023年初到今年2月23日，"七巨头"指数飙升逾300%，而标普500等权重指数仅上涨42%，常规标普500指数则上涨78%。</p><p>尽管华尔街鲜有人士预计历史会重演，但有理由对"七巨头"有望重拾市场领导地位持乐观态度。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>首席股票策略师欧桑·克万表示，这些股票的此轮回调已清除了过度投机头寸，并将估值推至具有吸引力的水平，为未来跑赢大盘创造了条件。</p><p>"我们看到了资金从美国股市流向国际市场的、最为极端的相对流出之一，"克万指出，并称这种逆转是由去年四月特朗普政府的关税计划引发的。"此前这是一笔拥挤的交易，随着这场战争爆发，情况实际上开始逆转。而其中最明显的受益者将是科技板块，尤其是大型科技股。"</p><p>市场汇编的数据显示，"七巨头"指数目前的预期市盈率不到25倍，低于去年10月时的近33倍，也低于其29倍的十年平均水平。这是自去年四月"关税恐慌"以来的最低水平。</p><p>考虑到这七家公司约占标普500指数市值加权权重的三分之一，科技巨头的复苏对整体市场将是一个重大的积极因素。</p><p>"我们正接近一个大型科技股变得难以抗拒的节点，"Futurum的纽曼表示。"在这种环境下，如果你把钱投在这里，晚上可以睡个安稳觉。它们如此持久稳固，根基深厚，并且连续多个季度超额完成任务。"</p><p>英伟达的停滞</p><p>然而，对多头而言，存在一个重大问题：英伟达。这家全球市值最高的公司——因此也是标普500指数中权重最大的个股——其涨势已陷入停滞。在自2022年底至去年7月飙升逾1100%之后，由于市场担忧其快速增长正接近顶峰，且投资者对其最大客户的巨额AI支出感到厌倦，该股在过去七个月里一直呈横盘整理态势。</p><p>这种疑虑在上周显露无遗，当时英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋预测到2027年数据中心销售额将达到1万亿美元，但这一预测未能提振投资者情绪。尽管在其年度开发者大会上发布了诸多其他利好消息，包括获得中国政府批准恢复在华AI芯片销售——该股当周仍以下跌4.1%收盘。</p><p>"市场在告诉你，业绩预期太高了，"持有英伟达股票的亨廷顿国家银行投资组合经理兰迪·哈尔表示，"我们并不认同这一点，因此我们认为该股相对具有吸引力。"</p><p>"七巨头"面临的另一个障碍是，由于竞相建设AI计算基础设施，这些公司的自由现金流出现恶化。最大的几家支出者——亚马逊、微软、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>母公司Alphabet和Meta——预计今年的合计自由现金流为940亿美元，较2025年的2050亿美元和2024年的2300亿美元显著下降。</p><p>Jonestrading首席市场策略师迈克尔·奥鲁克认为，尽管AI大市值股票估值有所降低，但市场对数据中心支出以及这些公司资产负债表上正在折旧的资产仍存疑虑，这依旧是一个主要问题。</p><p>"超大规模企业的商业模式已经转变，因此它们理应获得较低的估值，"奥鲁克表示。"标普500指数与标普等权重指数之间30%的估值差距，对于希望平稳度过波动的投资者而言，完全值得转向等权重指数。"</p><p>尽管如此，"七巨头"的盈利增长依然强劲。根据汇编的数据，其2026年利润预计将增长19%，而标普500指数中其他493家公司的利润预计将增长14%。</p><p>Futurum Group的纽曼认为，这种能够创造出高于市场其他部分利润的能力，最终是投资者最看重的。</p><p>"这些公司的表现值得称赞，"Futurum Group的纽曼表示。"看着它们交出的业绩答卷，很难不问一句：你还有什么理由想去别处投资?"</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“七巨头”与标普500相关性罕见转负，科技股下跌中酝酿复苏契机？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“七巨头”与标普500相关性罕见转负，科技股下跌中酝酿复苏契机？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-03-23 08:44 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1417125.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，在这轮长达三年的牛市行情中，标普500指数绝大部分时间都与科技巨头的股价亦步亦趋。但两者之间的这种紧密关联正突然瓦解——这对走势低迷的科技股而言，或许是件好事。追踪\"华丽七巨头\"(Magnificent Seven)的指数与标普500等权重指数(通过剔除最大公司权重来更准确反映所有股票整体表现的指数)之间的相关性，已于2月23日转为负值，表明两者走势不再同步。此后，随着伊朗战争...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1417125.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82005fdd5a20870413111b3adc1a547","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK1147":"投资银行业与经纪业","BK4581":"高盛持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4588":"碎股","NDX":"纳斯达克100指数","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1417125.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2621747844","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，在这轮长达三年的牛市行情中，标普500指数绝大部分时间都与科技巨头的股价亦步亦趋。但两者之间的这种紧密关联正突然瓦解——这对走势低迷的科技股而言，或许是件好事。追踪\"华丽七巨头\"(Magnificent Seven)的指数与标普500等权重指数(通过剔除最大公司权重来更准确反映所有股票整体表现的指数)之间的相关性，已于2月23日转为负值，表明两者走势不再同步。此后，随着伊朗战争扰乱市场并引发油价飙升，这一负相关性持续加深。\"我们从未经历过速度如此之快的科技周期，\"Futurum Group首席执行官丹尼尔·纽曼表示，\"我们完全无法预测接下来会发生什么。\"自2016年初以来，当前的相关性负值程度仅出现过一次。在2023年第一季度，随着OpenAI于2022年11月30日发布ChatGPT后掀起的人工智能热潮，\"七巨头\"——包括英伟达、苹果、微软、谷歌母公司Alphabet、亚马逊、Meta Platforms和特斯拉——股价一马当先。与此同时，标普500指数中的其他股票则因难以走出熊市而表现沉寂。从2023年1月到3月，\"七巨头\"指数攀升了45%，而常规标普500指数仅上涨了7%。最终，科技股的热情蔓延至整个市场，标普500指数在2023年全年上涨24%，并在2024年再涨23%。此番相关性瓦解之前，由于市场对巨额的AI支出感到担忧，\"七巨头\"已连续数月表现落后于大盘。从去年10月底到今年2月，彭博\"华丽七巨头\"指数下跌了7.3%，而同期由能源和材料等周期性板块领衔的标普500等权重指数则上涨了8.9%。在相关性转为负值后的几周里，两大指数的走势互换了位置。尽管\"七巨头\"本月已跌入回调区间，但其跌幅仍小于更广泛的市场基准。时移势易当然，当前市场的处境与三年前已大相径庭，伊朗战争的阴云笼罩着一切。与此同时，\"七巨头\"的表现还受到战事爆发前就已存在的担忧的拖累，即对AI的巨额投入以及这项新兴技术将带来的颠覆性影响。\"几年前，当'七巨头'相关性更高时，英伟达不断交出超预期的业绩修正，\" 骏利亨德森投资组合经理乔纳森·科夫斯基表示，\"当时我们并不那么担心资本支出和投资回报率，对AI和软件也没有那么多顾虑，苹果也没有面临内存短缺问题。\"上一次相关性处于如此负值水平时，标志着\"七巨头\"一轮显著超额回报期的开始。从2023年初到今年2月23日，\"七巨头\"指数飙升逾300%，而标普500等权重指数仅上涨42%，常规标普500指数则上涨78%。尽管华尔街鲜有人士预计历史会重演，但有理由对\"七巨头\"有望重拾市场领导地位持乐观态度。富国银行首席股票策略师欧桑·克万表示，这些股票的此轮回调已清除了过度投机头寸，并将估值推至具有吸引力的水平，为未来跑赢大盘创造了条件。\"我们看到了资金从美国股市流向国际市场的、最为极端的相对流出之一，\"克万指出，并称这种逆转是由去年四月特朗普政府的关税计划引发的。\"此前这是一笔拥挤的交易，随着这场战争爆发，情况实际上开始逆转。而其中最明显的受益者将是科技板块，尤其是大型科技股。\"市场汇编的数据显示，\"七巨头\"指数目前的预期市盈率不到25倍，低于去年10月时的近33倍，也低于其29倍的十年平均水平。这是自去年四月\"关税恐慌\"以来的最低水平。考虑到这七家公司约占标普500指数市值加权权重的三分之一，科技巨头的复苏对整体市场将是一个重大的积极因素。\"我们正接近一个大型科技股变得难以抗拒的节点，\"Futurum的纽曼表示。\"在这种环境下，如果你把钱投在这里，晚上可以睡个安稳觉。它们如此持久稳固，根基深厚，并且连续多个季度超额完成任务。\"英伟达的停滞然而，对多头而言，存在一个重大问题：英伟达。这家全球市值最高的公司——因此也是标普500指数中权重最大的个股——其涨势已陷入停滞。在自2022年底至去年7月飙升逾1100%之后，由于市场担忧其快速增长正接近顶峰，且投资者对其最大客户的巨额AI支出感到厌倦，该股在过去七个月里一直呈横盘整理态势。这种疑虑在上周显露无遗，当时英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋预测到2027年数据中心销售额将达到1万亿美元，但这一预测未能提振投资者情绪。尽管在其年度开发者大会上发布了诸多其他利好消息，包括获得中国政府批准恢复在华AI芯片销售——该股当周仍以下跌4.1%收盘。\"市场在告诉你，业绩预期太高了，\"持有英伟达股票的亨廷顿国家银行投资组合经理兰迪·哈尔表示，\"我们并不认同这一点，因此我们认为该股相对具有吸引力。\"\"七巨头\"面临的另一个障碍是，由于竞相建设AI计算基础设施，这些公司的自由现金流出现恶化。最大的几家支出者——亚马逊、微软、谷歌母公司Alphabet和Meta——预计今年的合计自由现金流为940亿美元，较2025年的2050亿美元和2024年的2300亿美元显著下降。Jonestrading首席市场策略师迈克尔·奥鲁克认为，尽管AI大市值股票估值有所降低，但市场对数据中心支出以及这些公司资产负债表上正在折旧的资产仍存疑虑，这依旧是一个主要问题。\"超大规模企业的商业模式已经转变，因此它们理应获得较低的估值，\"奥鲁克表示。\"标普500指数与标普等权重指数之间30%的估值差距，对于希望平稳度过波动的投资者而言，完全值得转向等权重指数。\"尽管如此，\"七巨头\"的盈利增长依然强劲。根据汇编的数据，其2026年利润预计将增长19%，而标普500指数中其他493家公司的利润预计将增长14%。Futurum Group的纽曼认为，这种能够创造出高于市场其他部分利润的能力，最终是投资者最看重的。\"这些公司的表现值得称赞，\"Futurum Group的纽曼表示。\"看着它们交出的业绩答卷，很难不问一句：你还有什么理由想去别处投资?\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NDX":2,".IXIC":2,"MNQ2603":2,"MNQmain":2,".DJI":2,"MNQ2612":2,"ESmain":2,".SPX":2,"NQmain":2,"YMmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":259,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}