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- ApalyptoApalypto
  ·2021-10-26
  $特斯拉(TSLA)$刚起床看到这个涨幅激动了
  2,640 评论
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- ApalyptoApalypto
  ·2021-08-10
  $Yalla Group(YALA)$这股是要完蛋了吗
  2,794 评论
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- ApalyptoApalypto
  ·2021-07-27
  $京东健康(06618)$你是真优秀啊真优秀
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- ApalyptoApalypto
  ·2021-07-27
  $Yalla Group(YALA)$要不要抛感觉耐心要磨没了
  2,836 评论
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- ApalyptoApalypto
  ·2021-07-12
  $Yalla Group(YALA)$感觉要放弃它了扶不起的阿斗
  2,848 评论
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- ApalyptoApalypto
  ·2021-05-20
  $Yalla Group(YALA)$交易量也太少了吧基本价格都不带动的.....
  3,173 1
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- ApalyptoApalypto
  ·2021-05-20
  $Yalla Group(YALA)$37的成本快跌没了……
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- ApalyptoApalypto
  ·2021-05-11
  这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看
  高盛深度报告：大宗涨，美国乱？飙升还有多少空间
  越是泡沫与牛市傻傻分不清楚的时候，幺蛾子就越多。
  高盛深度报告：大宗涨，美国乱？飙升还有多少空间
  2,403 评论
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- ApalyptoApalypto
  ·2021-04-27
  这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看
  What's The Real Story Of Tesla In China?
  What’s really going on for Tesla in China? Global supply chains remain fragile as the Chinese flex t
  What's The Real Story Of Tesla In China?
  2,976 评论
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- ApalyptoApalypto
  ·2021-04-21
  $京东(JD)$我103的成本山顶站岗...
  7,519 评论
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基本价格都不带动的.....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/130161254","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3173,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":130197370,"gmtCreate":1621517951490,"gmtModify":1621517951490,"author":{"id":"3501363053396105","authorId":"3501363053396105","name":"Apalypto","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fbab450c921549cde4ec9a4e485d773","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3501363053396105","authorIdStr":"3501363053396105"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YALA\">$Yalla Group(YALA)$</a>37的成本快跌没了……","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YALA\">$Yalla Group(YALA)$</a>37的成本快跌没了……","text":"$Yalla Group(YALA)$37的成本快跌没了……","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/130197370","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4080,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":193966152,"gmtCreate":1620746004576,"gmtModify":1620746004576,"author":{"id":"3501363053396105","authorId":"3501363053396105","name":"Apalypto","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fbab450c921549cde4ec9a4e485d773","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3501363053396105","authorIdStr":"3501363053396105"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/193966152","repostId":"1190822039","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190822039","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620652366,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1190822039?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-10 21:12","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"高盛深度报告：大宗涨，美国乱？飙升还有多少空间","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190822039","media":"格隆汇","summary":"越是泡沫与牛市傻傻分不清楚的时候，幺蛾子就越多。","content":"<p>作者：三思宏观人‍‍</p><p>本文的核心逻辑乃基于高盛上月的看多报告，但由于近期大宗商品涨幅过快，不少标的<b>仅一个月就超过了高盛提出的一年目标涨幅。</b></p><p>因此，我们现在的观点，已与本文在4月15日首发在知识星球的时候有所不同。</p><p>牛市后期幺蛾子多，虽然整体看多的方向不变，但对于某些涨幅过快的标的，大家请保持警惕。</p><p>对于高盛上月提出的这套交易，我们并不打算马上止盈，打算再在牛市泡沫中飞一会。</p><p>但是，我们也不建议之前没有上车的个人投资者在这个时间点还来跟风参与。</p><p>一个简单的道理：当一次电话会议就能吸引4000多位投资人参会的时候，已明显不再是一个好的建仓点。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5000bb6a5f8d798bcaa39f04e9461bc7\" tg-width=\"408\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>前言</b></p><p>过去一段时间，大宗商品价格大幅上涨备受关注。尽管国家部委多次发声给大宗商品市场降温，却依然挡不住铜、铁矿石、原油和农产品等大宗商品价格的猛烈上涨，这不免让人重新思考大宗商品上涨的逻辑。</p><p>关于大宗商品和通胀，三思社已在往期内容中有过多次讨论了。</p><p>在4月13号，高盛再次发布了一篇重磅报告《铜是新的石油》（见下图），报告从碳减排、绿色能源转型的角度分析铜的供需前景，并将未来12个月铜目标价提升至11000美元。</p><p>报告发布后，铜价一路上涨至今，涨幅达20%。</p><p>图：下图为5月5日K线截图。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d207689a018d4f149a60ec1b6f6f35f4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"569\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>但高盛的多头动作并未止步于此。</p><p>五一节前，高盛再一次发布专题报告，继续看多大宗商品。</p><p>该报告实战性较强，跳出了传统框架，结合新的政策环境提出了不少洞见和思考，观点颇具启发性。</p><p>今天我们把这篇高盛报告的核心观点提炼出来，供各位参考。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e75a75763fdb6d43c33bf6758adf235e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>&nbsp;正文</b></p><p><b>1）大宗商品存在13.5%的上涨空间</b></p><p>在报告（4月13日）发布前的两个多月，大宗商品的价格一直在盘整（见上图的K线走势）。盘整的原因，除了消化上一轮的涨幅以外，更重要还是基本面因素：欧洲重新封锁导致需求增长停滞以及利率上升、美元走强带来的宏观阻力。</p><p>然而现在，这些因素正在逐步逆转。以出行指标衡量的经济活动正在重回上升轨迹，尤其在欧洲加速接种疫苗之后，这种势头越发强劲。与此同时，交通运输、制造业和建筑业的季节性复苏也已开始，而且会在今年六月前持续加速。</p><p>图1：全球各地区出行指数（左）&amp;美元指数与大宗商品指数（右）</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0114a3921f19a70c8d6c5cd030bf5886\" tg-width=\"1027\" tg-height=\"348\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>大宗商品价格是由量（或者需求水平）驱动的，当需求量超过供应量，稀缺性溢价（即现货溢价）就出现了，而这种溢价又很难在事前被市场定价。由于大宗商品供应在短期内缺乏弹性，面对即将到来的大规模需求增长，供应不足的程度很容易被低估。因为供给方不可能在几个月时间里就新挖一座矿或者新种一种农作物。</p><p>高盛预计，在未来6个月，大宗商品的整体价格存在13.5%的上行空间（相较于报告发布的4月28日），油价将达到80美元/桶（芝商所旗下的WTI原油价格为75美元/桶），铜价（芝商所代码为HG）将达到1.1万美元/吨。</p><p>图：高盛对主要大宗商品的价格预测表</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94c4e1aa387486e55f5e64e434babbbe\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>2）供需趋紧支撑现货溢价</b></p><p>既然经济活动激增已被市场充分预期，那为什么大宗商品价格没有立即反映这一点?（这个月已开始兑现）</p><p>在大宗商品现货溢价得以持续之前，必定会出现去库存。如果即期价格高于远期，实物商品的库存盈余将会出库，在较高的即期价格下被出售，将市场推回到初始水平(图2)。</p><p>图2：去库存与价格曲线</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/793f9e6761c22130c4fcc177e6735efd\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>因此，只有实物短缺才能使现货溢价持续，而目前超过一半的大宗商品市场存在现货溢价，尤其农产品较为突出(图3)，CME、ICE、LME等几大交易所的大宗商品现货溢价率已经创下15年新高(图4)。</p><p>图3：大宗商品现货溢价率</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcc075f153ff86f0b4b3a58b0376c42f\" tg-width=\"518\" tg-height=\"378\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>图4：全球大宗商品现货溢价率</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43262a854e47779ee6ff339a88e6de03\" tg-width=\"631\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>因此，高盛认为：持续的现货溢价表明，大宗商品市场正处于库存不足、现货趋紧的状态。</p><p><b>3）贫富差距与大宗商品牛市</b></p><p>高盛认为，大宗商品的紧俏不仅会波及整个大宗行业，还会影响从美国、中国和欧洲到建筑、汽车和零售等多个地区和行业。需求井喷的状况随处可见，核心原因是决策者更倾向于解决社会问题，而不是聚焦宏观稳定。</p><p>从《欧盟复苏基金》将50%的资金分配给意大利和西班牙，到总统拜登最新经济刺激方案，低收入家庭明显受到了政策倾斜。过去一个月，鲍威尔多次访问华盛顿的无家可归者，频繁提及经济中“被遗忘的角落”，表明美联储政策重心已经向就业倾斜，更关注经济复苏的均衡性而不是通胀问题。</p><p>解决收入和财富不平等的政策将少数高收入家庭的多余储蓄，转移到边际消费倾向更高的低收入家庭，无论是通过负债、征税还是其他方式实现，它几乎总能确保强劲的需求增长，而这正是经济过热和实物通胀压力背后的原因。这一点在美国随处可见，从汽油需求增长到肉类消费提高谷物饲料需求。</p><p>图：美国居民以鸡肉消费为主，而近期美国的无骨鸡胸肉已涨价一倍。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09adea1a029ae67905475213f9709bf9\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"327\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>不难发现，历史上每一次大的商品牛市和经济通胀，都无一例外的伴随着百姓收入减少、财富不平等、财富再分配的民粹主义政策(图5)。</p><p>图5：缩小收入差距主要在经济过热时期</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/feae6950164428c16dddb04dde09fe33\" tg-width=\"754\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>4）中国不再是唯一增长源</b></p><p>高盛认为，本世纪头十年的大宗商品牛市，就是全球再分配的结果。</p><p>中国加入世贸组织后，随着制造业工作机会和工资从西方流向中国，收入和财富从美国工人转向大量低报酬的中国工人。</p><p>虽然跨国企业从中获利颇丰，但西方的劳工阶层也受到冲击。就业机会的流失加速了美国劳动参与率下降，而与此同时，来自中国的需求开始繁荣(图6)。</p><p>图6：中美劳动力市场与大宗商品牛市</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed6517258040a669a3d62731f3f6f12f\" tg-width=\"1036\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>不只是政府主导的基建工程，中国家庭在获得了新收入后，也开始大量购买实物商品，正如上世纪60年代末和70年代美国和欧洲低收入家庭所做的那样。</p><p>在这趋势下，中国在过去20年里成为了大宗商品需求的霸主，中国也成了大宗商品需求的代名词。许多投资者将中国需求动向——无论是信贷、政策还是贸易——视为衡量大宗商品价格的前瞻指标。</p><p>然而，在经历了二十年创纪录的出口导向型增长之后，中西方之间的‘套利窗口‘已基本关闭。不仅中国的实际工资增长速度比美国快22倍，太平洋两岸的政策制定者也开始意识到这种'开放套利'的弊端。</p><p>一方面，特朗普的贸易保护主义政策旨在应对美国制造业就业流失和工资停滞。另一方面，中国也已厌倦了为处理世界垃圾和生产高污染产品所承担的高昂环境成本。在过去三年颁布的一系列政策中，中国关闭了洋垃圾进口的大门，并削减高污染高耗能行业譬如钢铁行业的产能，以提高居民的生活质量。</p><p>这些政策不会阻止中国的经济增长，但它将减缓中国对实物商品的需求。随着中国逐渐转向以信息为基础、可再生能源为主导的经济体，下个十年的中国，将不再是大宗商品需求的唯一主要增长源(图7)。</p><p>图7：未来大宗商品需求主要来源国</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6857fd14772a6f89394c6a7434fbf128\" tg-width=\"1016\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>5）脱碳成为宏观政策的基调</b></p><p>从拜登的绿色新政到中国基于碳减排和能源转型的产业政策，“脱碳”正成为全球宏观的政策基调，这意味着绿色资本支出的左尾风险大大降低。</p><p>拜登在上个月的气候峰会做总结时，重点谈到了绿色资本支出将如何创造就业，这与过去的电力基础设施项目没有什么不同，比如罗斯福新政中的田纳西河谷管理局，它当时也同时解决了环境问题和社会问题。</p><p>延伸到贸易政策，自农业、技术转让和制造业就业等与传统保护主义政策相关的领域之后，美国、中国和欧洲都开始将贸易政策的争论焦点围绕碳边境税和战略竞争力展开。</p><p>事实上，“碳安全”现在正成为一个国家的重要问题——各国是否有机会获得低碳技术和原材料，以发展国内的关键绿色行业?</p><p>根据拜登政府和中国政府的态度，征收碳排放税之前，无法脱碳的行业都存在风险。</p><p>中国在制定省级排放目标的同时，也对全国排放能力设定了上限，这为大宗商品供应收紧奠定了基础。</p><p>在工业金属中，钢铁(占中国碳排放的17%)和铝(占中国碳排放的4%)受影响最大(图8)。</p><p>与2016年的供给侧改革不同，脱碳目标的长期性质意味着产能限制将持续存在，进而对基本面和价格产生更持久的影响。</p><p>图8：中国碳排放主要来源</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae2613c479ee4e2a82dd9ab00f2d8f96\" tg-width=\"1011\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>6）经济重启与油价重估</b></p><p>过去6个月，全球原油需求水平一直保持在约9500万桶/天的水平（下图）。高盛预计未来几个月全球原油需求将出现大幅反弹(图9)</p><p>图9：全球原油需求二季度将大幅反弹</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c0daa427227ee5704db352496678890\" tg-width=\"502\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>首先，疫情对经济/出行活动的影响正在减弱，原因是防疫政策更有针对性和疫苗接种持续增加。有明确的证据表明，疫苗接种领先的国家(美国、以色列、英国)出行活动更多，例如，美国的汽油需求已接近2019年的水平(图10)，航空的燃油需求也自3月份以来增长了20%。</p><p>图10：美国汽油需求</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e979bd8b0d58e5f3f2c757004bab8197\" tg-width=\"816\" tg-height=\"834\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>此外，南美和欧洲的疫情也已出现拐点，印度疫情也终于增速放缓。</p><p>因此，高盛预计6月份开始全球石油需求将大幅增加，从目前9450万桶/天增加到第三季度9900万桶/天。</p><p>随着欧洲疫苗接种步伐加快，被抑制的旅行需求将得到释放。特别是，预计5月份开始的国际旅行限制放松，将导致全球航空油需求恢复150万桶/天(尽管仍比疫情前的水平低30%)。</p><p>高盛预计，在未来6个月，布伦特原油价格将达到80美元/桶，芝商所旗下的WTI原油价格将达到75美元/桶。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94c4e1aa387486e55f5e64e434babbbe\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>7）铜是新的石油</b></p><p>终于回到了本报告的中心主旨：'铜是新的石油'。</p><p>高盛认为绿色资本支出是下一轮大宗商品超级周期的主旨，而铜则是重中之重。</p><p>但令人担忧的是，铜正面临严重投资不足的供应压力。在经历了2010年代中期价格暴跌带来的创伤后，铜矿企业对增加资本开支持谨慎态度，现在距离铜矿供应峰值只有两年多的时间。</p><p>高盛指出，铜价飙出历史新高是解决供应危机的唯一途径。就像石油在21世纪头十年的大宗商品超级牛市中所呈现的那样。</p><p>高盛估计绿色革命将催生铜需求历史上最强的十年增长期，绿色需求份额将从现在的3%上升到2030年的16%(图11)。</p><p>图11：绿色能源产能的铜需求量及份额变化</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a149e30db025e20fed7325e1dcfe0c1\" tg-width=\"1034\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>去年以来，相伴于疫情的刺激政策在供应停滞的情况下支撑了需求复苏（中国贡献很大），导致铜赤字进一步强化，这些动态正好将在铜市场出现有史以来最大的中长期赤字时达到顶峰。</p><p>中国现货市场目前处于短暂疲软阶段，为投资者提供了短暂的买入窗口（本报告于上月中旬首发），直到去库存结束并开始补库存，后者将持续到下半年。</p><p>在此背景下，高盛将未来12个月铜目标价提高到1.1万美元/吨，2022年为11875美元/吨，2023年为1.2万美元/吨，2024年为1.4万美元/吨，2025年为1.5万美元/吨。</p><p>但需注意的是，在高盛发报告后的一个月之内，铜价已涨幅逾20%。虽然仍长期看好，但短期涨幅较大。</p><p><b>8）农产品过热了么？</b></p><p>不止于铜。由于中国进口激增再叠加巴西和美国的恶劣天气，农产品的供应前景也日益趋紧，这导致4月份谷物和油籽价格进一步上涨，玉米价格超过6.5美元/蒲式耳，大豆超过15美元/蒲式耳，创下自2010年初干旱以来的最高价格(图12)。</p><p>图12：农产品价格涨幅（数据来自CME官网，数据截至4月28日，今天的价格又高了不少）</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f45b49342b1bf36ccd462d062b25e6c2\" tg-width=\"643\" tg-height=\"277\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>这次谷物价格大涨后，市场将面临着两种前景。如果夏季美国农作物收成不好（美国玉米带出现冰冻预警，8%的种植作物面临早期受损风险），库存将降至极低水平，价格需要先上涨更多以压抑需求；然后预期扩大种植面积后的产量可能又会使玉米和大豆价格分别降至4.5美元和13.5美元。</p><p>此外，美国能源情报署(EIA)报告称，乙醇消费量不断上升、豆油需求强劲，这拉升了大豆压榨的利润。因此，在当前的价格水平上很难通过压抑旧作物需求来维持市场均衡。</p><p>由于美国大豆供需也极度偏紧，以及最近新玉米价格表现好于大豆将导致作物种植面积向玉米倾斜(图13)，这预示着未来几个月，大豆期货价格（高盛用的11月到期的CME大豆期货价格）也将迎头赶上玉米的涨幅。</p><p>图13：大豆/玉米价格比</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1222688aa1ac4b2958d90ff1a1554bfe\" tg-width=\"529\" tg-height=\"414\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>高盛将近期玉米目标价上调至7.30美元/蒲式耳，以反映夏季来自巴西出口的竞争减少；</p><p>同时高盛将未来6个月和12个月大豆预测价上调至14.80美元和14.00美元，以反映种植面积扩张受限的影响。</p><p>同理，基于冬小麦产区出现严寒天气以及小麦对玉米的替代效应，高盛将未来3/6/12月的小麦目标价上调至7.40/7.30/7.20美元。</p><p>此外，高盛还看好棉花价格，理由是近期棉价低迷会导致棉花种植面积大规模减少。</p><p>但这几天的CME大豆、玉米、小麦期货价格均已超过了高盛的一年目标价，是市场超买了还是高盛保守了，这就交给各位读者思考了。</p><p><b>9）数字货币的争斗</b></p><p>自3月初以来，比特币相对于黄金表现已经停滞(图14)，高盛认为这背后主要有两个原因：</p><p>首先，由于全球新冠肺炎病例激增，风险情绪变得更加谨慎，市场重新青睐防御性资产，风险资产正在失去动能。</p><p>图14：比特币黄金价格比（浅）&amp; 高盛风险偏好指标（深）</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/182c60f92df9d71310a21c4fa0eae0ca\" tg-width=\"511\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>其次，比特币让位于以太币(ETH)等其他加密货币，这凸显了一个事实：即加密货币之间对价值储存主导地位的竞争仍然存在，持有比特币增加了额外风险来源。</p><p>传统的长期价值储存方式如黄金、艺术品、钻石、葡萄酒和收藏品，除了作为价值储存方式外，都具有使用价值。使用价值之所以重要，是因为实用需求能够吸收因投资需求带来的波动，从而抚平价格波动，这意味着资产价格不太可能为零。因此，比特币与黄金争夺避险需求还为时过早，但两者可以共存。</p><p>虽然比特币受益于流动性宽松，但由于其高能耗，缺少实用价值和较弱的ESG评分，这使得它的价值存储需求很容易被另一种设计更好的加密货币替代。</p><p>今年以来，比特币表现明显跑输第二大数字货币以太币，在五一假期结束后，以太坊(ETH)价格持续创下新高。</p><p>不只是价格，以太坊的交易量也在攀升。自芝商所（CME）2月份推出ETH期货以来，该产品成交量和持仓量持续攀升（图15），这表明市场对ETH的接受度正在不断上升。</p><p>图15：ETH期货成交量和持仓量</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc492e64bba846c7aa673c29b59f3d32\" tg-width=\"571\" tg-height=\"319\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>注：数据来自CME官网，数据截至4月28日</p><p>下表为芝商所ETH期货的基本要素</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f072fb91a65dbd153a4dbe30a308111c\" tg-width=\"428\" tg-height=\"162\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>关于以太坊的一些热点应用，我们在前文有过讨论，但这么迅猛的涨幅还是超出我们预期了。</p><p>总的来说，高盛的这两篇报告无论是理论观点还是实战效果都是不错的。</p><p>但是，对于这些涨幅过快的标的，请大家务必保持警惕。</p><p>越是泡沫与牛市傻傻分不清楚的时候，幺蛾子就越多。</p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>高盛深度报告：大宗涨，美国乱？飙升还有多少空间</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n高盛深度报告：大宗涨，美国乱？飙升还有多少空间\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-10 21:12 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/464985><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：三思宏观人‍‍本文的核心逻辑乃基于高盛上月的看多报告，但由于近期大宗商品涨幅过快，不少标的仅一个月就超过了高盛提出的一年目标涨幅。因此，我们现在的观点，已与本文在4月15日首发在知识星球的时候有所不同。牛市后期幺蛾子多，虽然整体看多的方向不变，但对于某些涨幅过快的标的，大家请保持警惕。对于高盛上月提出的这套交易，我们并不打算马上止盈，打算再在牛市泡沫中飞一会。但是，我们也不建议之前没有上车的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/464985\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bac730ff187b3128886ce735bf21c2b8","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/464985","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"1190822039","content_text":"作者：三思宏观人‍‍本文的核心逻辑乃基于高盛上月的看多报告，但由于近期大宗商品涨幅过快，不少标的仅一个月就超过了高盛提出的一年目标涨幅。因此，我们现在的观点，已与本文在4月15日首发在知识星球的时候有所不同。牛市后期幺蛾子多，虽然整体看多的方向不变，但对于某些涨幅过快的标的，大家请保持警惕。对于高盛上月提出的这套交易，我们并不打算马上止盈，打算再在牛市泡沫中飞一会。但是，我们也不建议之前没有上车的个人投资者在这个时间点还来跟风参与。一个简单的道理：当一次电话会议就能吸引4000多位投资人参会的时候，已明显不再是一个好的建仓点。前言过去一段时间，大宗商品价格大幅上涨备受关注。尽管国家部委多次发声给大宗商品市场降温，却依然挡不住铜、铁矿石、原油和农产品等大宗商品价格的猛烈上涨，这不免让人重新思考大宗商品上涨的逻辑。关于大宗商品和通胀，三思社已在往期内容中有过多次讨论了。在4月13号，高盛再次发布了一篇重磅报告《铜是新的石油》（见下图），报告从碳减排、绿色能源转型的角度分析铜的供需前景，并将未来12个月铜目标价提升至11000美元。报告发布后，铜价一路上涨至今，涨幅达20%。图：下图为5月5日K线截图。但高盛的多头动作并未止步于此。五一节前，高盛再一次发布专题报告，继续看多大宗商品。该报告实战性较强，跳出了传统框架，结合新的政策环境提出了不少洞见和思考，观点颇具启发性。今天我们把这篇高盛报告的核心观点提炼出来，供各位参考。 正文1）大宗商品存在13.5%的上涨空间在报告（4月13日）发布前的两个多月，大宗商品的价格一直在盘整（见上图的K线走势）。盘整的原因，除了消化上一轮的涨幅以外，更重要还是基本面因素：欧洲重新封锁导致需求增长停滞以及利率上升、美元走强带来的宏观阻力。然而现在，这些因素正在逐步逆转。以出行指标衡量的经济活动正在重回上升轨迹，尤其在欧洲加速接种疫苗之后，这种势头越发强劲。与此同时，交通运输、制造业和建筑业的季节性复苏也已开始，而且会在今年六月前持续加速。图1：全球各地区出行指数（左）&美元指数与大宗商品指数（右）大宗商品价格是由量（或者需求水平）驱动的，当需求量超过供应量，稀缺性溢价（即现货溢价）就出现了，而这种溢价又很难在事前被市场定价。由于大宗商品供应在短期内缺乏弹性，面对即将到来的大规模需求增长，供应不足的程度很容易被低估。因为供给方不可能在几个月时间里就新挖一座矿或者新种一种农作物。高盛预计，在未来6个月，大宗商品的整体价格存在13.5%的上行空间（相较于报告发布的4月28日），油价将达到80美元/桶（芝商所旗下的WTI原油价格为75美元/桶），铜价（芝商所代码为HG）将达到1.1万美元/吨。图：高盛对主要大宗商品的价格预测表2）供需趋紧支撑现货溢价既然经济活动激增已被市场充分预期，那为什么大宗商品价格没有立即反映这一点?（这个月已开始兑现）在大宗商品现货溢价得以持续之前，必定会出现去库存。如果即期价格高于远期，实物商品的库存盈余将会出库，在较高的即期价格下被出售，将市场推回到初始水平(图2)。图2：去库存与价格曲线因此，只有实物短缺才能使现货溢价持续，而目前超过一半的大宗商品市场存在现货溢价，尤其农产品较为突出(图3)，CME、ICE、LME等几大交易所的大宗商品现货溢价率已经创下15年新高(图4)。图3：大宗商品现货溢价率图4：全球大宗商品现货溢价率因此，高盛认为：持续的现货溢价表明，大宗商品市场正处于库存不足、现货趋紧的状态。3）贫富差距与大宗商品牛市高盛认为，大宗商品的紧俏不仅会波及整个大宗行业，还会影响从美国、中国和欧洲到建筑、汽车和零售等多个地区和行业。需求井喷的状况随处可见，核心原因是决策者更倾向于解决社会问题，而不是聚焦宏观稳定。从《欧盟复苏基金》将50%的资金分配给意大利和西班牙，到总统拜登最新经济刺激方案，低收入家庭明显受到了政策倾斜。过去一个月，鲍威尔多次访问华盛顿的无家可归者，频繁提及经济中“被遗忘的角落”，表明美联储政策重心已经向就业倾斜，更关注经济复苏的均衡性而不是通胀问题。解决收入和财富不平等的政策将少数高收入家庭的多余储蓄，转移到边际消费倾向更高的低收入家庭，无论是通过负债、征税还是其他方式实现，它几乎总能确保强劲的需求增长，而这正是经济过热和实物通胀压力背后的原因。这一点在美国随处可见，从汽油需求增长到肉类消费提高谷物饲料需求。图：美国居民以鸡肉消费为主，而近期美国的无骨鸡胸肉已涨价一倍。不难发现，历史上每一次大的商品牛市和经济通胀，都无一例外的伴随着百姓收入减少、财富不平等、财富再分配的民粹主义政策(图5)。图5：缩小收入差距主要在经济过热时期4）中国不再是唯一增长源高盛认为，本世纪头十年的大宗商品牛市，就是全球再分配的结果。中国加入世贸组织后，随着制造业工作机会和工资从西方流向中国，收入和财富从美国工人转向大量低报酬的中国工人。虽然跨国企业从中获利颇丰，但西方的劳工阶层也受到冲击。就业机会的流失加速了美国劳动参与率下降，而与此同时，来自中国的需求开始繁荣(图6)。图6：中美劳动力市场与大宗商品牛市不只是政府主导的基建工程，中国家庭在获得了新收入后，也开始大量购买实物商品，正如上世纪60年代末和70年代美国和欧洲低收入家庭所做的那样。在这趋势下，中国在过去20年里成为了大宗商品需求的霸主，中国也成了大宗商品需求的代名词。许多投资者将中国需求动向——无论是信贷、政策还是贸易——视为衡量大宗商品价格的前瞻指标。然而，在经历了二十年创纪录的出口导向型增长之后，中西方之间的‘套利窗口‘已基本关闭。不仅中国的实际工资增长速度比美国快22倍，太平洋两岸的政策制定者也开始意识到这种'开放套利'的弊端。一方面，特朗普的贸易保护主义政策旨在应对美国制造业就业流失和工资停滞。另一方面，中国也已厌倦了为处理世界垃圾和生产高污染产品所承担的高昂环境成本。在过去三年颁布的一系列政策中，中国关闭了洋垃圾进口的大门，并削减高污染高耗能行业譬如钢铁行业的产能，以提高居民的生活质量。这些政策不会阻止中国的经济增长，但它将减缓中国对实物商品的需求。随着中国逐渐转向以信息为基础、可再生能源为主导的经济体，下个十年的中国，将不再是大宗商品需求的唯一主要增长源(图7)。图7：未来大宗商品需求主要来源国5）脱碳成为宏观政策的基调从拜登的绿色新政到中国基于碳减排和能源转型的产业政策，“脱碳”正成为全球宏观的政策基调，这意味着绿色资本支出的左尾风险大大降低。拜登在上个月的气候峰会做总结时，重点谈到了绿色资本支出将如何创造就业，这与过去的电力基础设施项目没有什么不同，比如罗斯福新政中的田纳西河谷管理局，它当时也同时解决了环境问题和社会问题。延伸到贸易政策，自农业、技术转让和制造业就业等与传统保护主义政策相关的领域之后，美国、中国和欧洲都开始将贸易政策的争论焦点围绕碳边境税和战略竞争力展开。事实上，“碳安全”现在正成为一个国家的重要问题——各国是否有机会获得低碳技术和原材料，以发展国内的关键绿色行业?根据拜登政府和中国政府的态度，征收碳排放税之前，无法脱碳的行业都存在风险。中国在制定省级排放目标的同时，也对全国排放能力设定了上限，这为大宗商品供应收紧奠定了基础。在工业金属中，钢铁(占中国碳排放的17%)和铝(占中国碳排放的4%)受影响最大(图8)。与2016年的供给侧改革不同，脱碳目标的长期性质意味着产能限制将持续存在，进而对基本面和价格产生更持久的影响。图8：中国碳排放主要来源6）经济重启与油价重估过去6个月，全球原油需求水平一直保持在约9500万桶/天的水平（下图）。高盛预计未来几个月全球原油需求将出现大幅反弹(图9)图9：全球原油需求二季度将大幅反弹首先，疫情对经济/出行活动的影响正在减弱，原因是防疫政策更有针对性和疫苗接种持续增加。有明确的证据表明，疫苗接种领先的国家(美国、以色列、英国)出行活动更多，例如，美国的汽油需求已接近2019年的水平(图10)，航空的燃油需求也自3月份以来增长了20%。图10：美国汽油需求此外，南美和欧洲的疫情也已出现拐点，印度疫情也终于增速放缓。因此，高盛预计6月份开始全球石油需求将大幅增加，从目前9450万桶/天增加到第三季度9900万桶/天。随着欧洲疫苗接种步伐加快，被抑制的旅行需求将得到释放。特别是，预计5月份开始的国际旅行限制放松，将导致全球航空油需求恢复150万桶/天(尽管仍比疫情前的水平低30%)。高盛预计，在未来6个月，布伦特原油价格将达到80美元/桶，芝商所旗下的WTI原油价格将达到75美元/桶。7）铜是新的石油终于回到了本报告的中心主旨：'铜是新的石油'。高盛认为绿色资本支出是下一轮大宗商品超级周期的主旨，而铜则是重中之重。但令人担忧的是，铜正面临严重投资不足的供应压力。在经历了2010年代中期价格暴跌带来的创伤后，铜矿企业对增加资本开支持谨慎态度，现在距离铜矿供应峰值只有两年多的时间。高盛指出，铜价飙出历史新高是解决供应危机的唯一途径。就像石油在21世纪头十年的大宗商品超级牛市中所呈现的那样。高盛估计绿色革命将催生铜需求历史上最强的十年增长期，绿色需求份额将从现在的3%上升到2030年的16%(图11)。图11：绿色能源产能的铜需求量及份额变化去年以来，相伴于疫情的刺激政策在供应停滞的情况下支撑了需求复苏（中国贡献很大），导致铜赤字进一步强化，这些动态正好将在铜市场出现有史以来最大的中长期赤字时达到顶峰。中国现货市场目前处于短暂疲软阶段，为投资者提供了短暂的买入窗口（本报告于上月中旬首发），直到去库存结束并开始补库存，后者将持续到下半年。在此背景下，高盛将未来12个月铜目标价提高到1.1万美元/吨，2022年为11875美元/吨，2023年为1.2万美元/吨，2024年为1.4万美元/吨，2025年为1.5万美元/吨。但需注意的是，在高盛发报告后的一个月之内，铜价已涨幅逾20%。虽然仍长期看好，但短期涨幅较大。8）农产品过热了么？不止于铜。由于中国进口激增再叠加巴西和美国的恶劣天气，农产品的供应前景也日益趋紧，这导致4月份谷物和油籽价格进一步上涨，玉米价格超过6.5美元/蒲式耳，大豆超过15美元/蒲式耳，创下自2010年初干旱以来的最高价格(图12)。图12：农产品价格涨幅（数据来自CME官网，数据截至4月28日，今天的价格又高了不少）这次谷物价格大涨后，市场将面临着两种前景。如果夏季美国农作物收成不好（美国玉米带出现冰冻预警，8%的种植作物面临早期受损风险），库存将降至极低水平，价格需要先上涨更多以压抑需求；然后预期扩大种植面积后的产量可能又会使玉米和大豆价格分别降至4.5美元和13.5美元。此外，美国能源情报署(EIA)报告称，乙醇消费量不断上升、豆油需求强劲，这拉升了大豆压榨的利润。因此，在当前的价格水平上很难通过压抑旧作物需求来维持市场均衡。由于美国大豆供需也极度偏紧，以及最近新玉米价格表现好于大豆将导致作物种植面积向玉米倾斜(图13)，这预示着未来几个月，大豆期货价格（高盛用的11月到期的CME大豆期货价格）也将迎头赶上玉米的涨幅。图13：大豆/玉米价格比高盛将近期玉米目标价上调至7.30美元/蒲式耳，以反映夏季来自巴西出口的竞争减少；同时高盛将未来6个月和12个月大豆预测价上调至14.80美元和14.00美元，以反映种植面积扩张受限的影响。同理，基于冬小麦产区出现严寒天气以及小麦对玉米的替代效应，高盛将未来3/6/12月的小麦目标价上调至7.40/7.30/7.20美元。此外，高盛还看好棉花价格，理由是近期棉价低迷会导致棉花种植面积大规模减少。但这几天的CME大豆、玉米、小麦期货价格均已超过了高盛的一年目标价，是市场超买了还是高盛保守了，这就交给各位读者思考了。9）数字货币的争斗自3月初以来，比特币相对于黄金表现已经停滞(图14)，高盛认为这背后主要有两个原因：首先，由于全球新冠肺炎病例激增，风险情绪变得更加谨慎，市场重新青睐防御性资产，风险资产正在失去动能。图14：比特币黄金价格比（浅）& 高盛风险偏好指标（深）其次，比特币让位于以太币(ETH)等其他加密货币，这凸显了一个事实：即加密货币之间对价值储存主导地位的竞争仍然存在，持有比特币增加了额外风险来源。传统的长期价值储存方式如黄金、艺术品、钻石、葡萄酒和收藏品，除了作为价值储存方式外，都具有使用价值。使用价值之所以重要，是因为实用需求能够吸收因投资需求带来的波动，从而抚平价格波动，这意味着资产价格不太可能为零。因此，比特币与黄金争夺避险需求还为时过早，但两者可以共存。虽然比特币受益于流动性宽松，但由于其高能耗，缺少实用价值和较弱的ESG评分，这使得它的价值存储需求很容易被另一种设计更好的加密货币替代。今年以来，比特币表现明显跑输第二大数字货币以太币，在五一假期结束后，以太坊(ETH)价格持续创下新高。不只是价格，以太坊的交易量也在攀升。自芝商所（CME）2月份推出ETH期货以来，该产品成交量和持仓量持续攀升（图15），这表明市场对ETH的接受度正在不断上升。图15：ETH期货成交量和持仓量注：数据来自CME官网，数据截至4月28日下表为芝商所ETH期货的基本要素关于以太坊的一些热点应用，我们在前文有过讨论，但这么迅猛的涨幅还是超出我们预期了。总的来说，高盛的这两篇报告无论是理论观点还是实战效果都是不错的。但是，对于这些涨幅过快的标的，请大家务必保持警惕。越是泡沫与牛市傻傻分不清楚的时候，幺蛾子就越多。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2403,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":377221520,"gmtCreate":1619531519360,"gmtModify":1619531519360,"author":{"id":"3501363053396105","authorId":"3501363053396105","name":"Apalypto","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fbab450c921549cde4ec9a4e485d773","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3501363053396105","authorIdStr":"3501363053396105"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/377221520","repostId":"1161810404","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1161810404","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619527994,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1161810404?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-27 20:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What's The Real Story Of Tesla In China?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161810404","media":"ZeroHedge","summary":"What’s really going on for Tesla in China? Global supply chains remain fragile as the Chinese flex t","content":"<p><b><i>What’s really going on for Tesla in China? Global supply chains remain fragile as the Chinese flex their muscles and national buying power. That may prove problematic for western firms, and especially Tesla. But also it raises questions about investment imperatives on China growth vs flatline in the West.</i></b></p>\n<p>There is lots to be positive about this morning. The first headline to catch my eye was a prediction from Goldman Sachs raising their target to 7.8% UK growth in 2021 – up from the 5% consensus. Great stuff! A colleague sent me the FT’s analysis of the&nbsp;Pandemic end-game: 5.2% people have been infected last week, but vaccines are clearly working and saving lives. And there are some spectacular company results hitting the screens.</p>\n<p>But across the globe supply chain ructions continue. Jaguar Land Rover has shut down a number of factories over the global shortage of chips. There are warning of everything from autos, fridges, toasters to airplanes being delayed due to apparent hoarding by Chinese manufacturers concerned about possible sanctions if the current cold war heats up.</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>We have a global explosion of repressed consumer spending set to hit the market.</p></li>\n <li><p>There is a global shortage of goods. (I know this – it looks like our new kitchen will have a wine-chiller shaped gap due to the lack of supply! Shocking…. Simply shocking…)</p></li>\n <li><p>There is the threat of further supply shocks on the back of rising trade and cold-war ructions.</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>The world is less stable than we hope. And it boils down to a very simple question. What’s really happening in China?</b>That, I suspect, is the critical factor when it comes to predicting just how strong pandemic recovery will be, or how constrained it may become.</p>\n<p>I saw a headline flash by this morning anticipating Apple iPhone China sales fell in March as sales of new domestic smart-phones kicked in. According to&nbsp;Seeking Alpha&nbsp;high China sales in Jan/Feb have reversed despite the success of the new iPhone 12. (Apple numbers are tomorrow.) Why would China sales fall? Is it because Chinese consumers are increasingly persuaded to buy home-grown product, fuelled by a patriotic duty to do so?</p>\n<p><b>Tesla is finding itself on the receiving end of pointed official China criticism</b>– and Musk (surprisingly) has bowed his head and promised to do better. The headlines about a US Tesla crash where there is a dispute about whether anyone was actually driving is just noise and distraction. The real story is the future for Tesla demand in China.</p>\n<p>If Tesla was criticised in the US for shoddy servicing, poor customer care, and was accused of breaching privacy rules with car mounted cameras, you can bet Musk would be screaming obscenities, appearing on prime time TV smoking a joint to tell us regulators are idiots, and that the press knows nothing. Allegations of customer dissatisfaction would be steamrollered by a barrage of Tesla Fanboy hate posts and denials refusing to discuss the matter.</p>\n<p>But, when Tesla gets accused of the same failings in China – suddenly Musk does the right thing and kow-tows, promising to do better. Musk is beginning to understand that displaying “sincerity” in China means doing exactly what the state tells him to do.</p>\n<p><b>Tesla is walking a very thin line in China</b>– and Elon knows it. On one hand, he’s bet the shop on promises the EV maker will deliver big into China. On the other, the recent Shanghai Motor Show featured a couple of Teslas, but, more importantly, a vast number of sophisticated Chinese new models EVs set for launch in the coming year.</p>\n<p>Musk may soon realise the Chinese might just have played him for a chump – supporting and financing his gigafactory build to get EVs established in the Chinese consumer mindset, while also conclusively demonstrating to the Chinese autofirms the foreign rival products they have to beat.</p>\n<p>And since we’re talking about Tesla, let’s get off the China theme for a moment, and think about the results it announced y’day: Congratulations to them for beating Q1 expectations. Net income of $438mm, revenues up 74% and 185,000 cars delivered.</p>\n<p><i><b>But… all that glitters is not revenue from car sales… Let’s see… what did the results really tell us? That profit was based on $518 mm of regulatory credit sales and a $101 positive gain from its Bitcoin position and sales. Strip these out and… and Telsa lost $181mm selling cars.</b></i></p>\n<p>To this day I don’t believe Tesla has made a single brass cent selling cars, yet the purveyor of fine regulatory credits and dabbler in cryptocurrencies has made its owner the second richest man on the planet. (And yes.. I still hold a small position in the stock.)</p>\n<p>More importantly, the Q1 results show Musk is caught between the proverbial rock and river. He knows winning in China is critical for his evolved EV scheme.</p>\n<p><b>Ok – calling Tesla a pyramid scheme is harsh, but Musk knows he needs to keep up the positive news flow; continually demonstrating Telsa’s lead in EV, increasing his production numbers, upping the profits and feeding a never-ending stream of positive spin (like autonomous driving tomorrow – always tomorrow). Without the positive spin driving Tesla marketing and keeping up the stock-price, how will he continue to attract new buyers while persuading current investors to HODL! (Crypto-verse speak for “hold on for dear life”).</b></p>\n<p>There is a big missed theme around Tesla – competition.</p>\n<p><b>Their EV tech moat is shallow.</b>Today, the firm is still ahead in EV terms of consumer deliverables like quality, range, handling etc, but the rest of the Automotive world; from Tokyo to Munich, from Shanghai to Detroit is playing catch up fast.</p>\n<p><b>Going back to China, the party is very keen to see domestic producers not only dominated the China market, but to establish themselves abroad.</b>That’s as true in EVs as it will be in Smart-phones, fridges and all the other paraphernalia of modern life…</p>\n<p>Let, me stir this a bit more. Should you bite the moral bullet and buy HSBC? The potential downside is its engaging with China – but its China that makes the bank so valuable. HSBC is a good illustration of the China conundrum.</p>\n<p>The geopolitical tensions look high. There are few signs the US and China will reach anything better than a new cold war which is bound to further roil supply chains. There are a surprising number of articles around on how the newly empowered Chinese navy is set to take on American carrier task forces over Taiwan – and hammer them with land-based hyper-missiles. (None of this bodes well for the&nbsp;Big-Lizzie UK carrier strike group&nbsp;heading to the region this summer.)</p>\n<p>The moral arguments against any China investment can’t be ignored. The treatment of the Uyghurs, surveillance, Tibet and the rest are difficult to square with any ESG investment mandate.</p>\n<p>China critics will point to the case of Jack Ma and issues of the rule law as further reasons to remain shy of China investors. But its only by fully embracing capitalism and the market economy model – with Chinese Characteristics – the Chinese have been able to so successfully grow their economy and take it through its earlier export-led model to today’s consumption-led economy. The Chinese want their luxury and consumer goods, just like the rest of us.</p>\n<p>The next couple of months are going to be fascinated in terms of how the China story develops. Trade Wars, its own internal markets, Patriotic buying programmes, and Geopolitics will all feature. At this point, remember my mantra no 4:&nbsp;<b>“Things are seldom as bad as you fear, but never as good as you hope!”</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What's The Real Story Of Tesla In China?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat's The Real Story Of Tesla In China?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-27 20:53 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/whats-real-story-tesla-china><strong>ZeroHedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>What’s really going on for Tesla in China? Global supply chains remain fragile as the Chinese flex their muscles and national buying power. That may prove problematic for western firms, and especially...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/whats-real-story-tesla-china\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/whats-real-story-tesla-china","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161810404","content_text":"What’s really going on for Tesla in China? Global supply chains remain fragile as the Chinese flex their muscles and national buying power. That may prove problematic for western firms, and especially Tesla. But also it raises questions about investment imperatives on China growth vs flatline in the West.\nThere is lots to be positive about this morning. The first headline to catch my eye was a prediction from Goldman Sachs raising their target to 7.8% UK growth in 2021 – up from the 5% consensus. Great stuff! A colleague sent me the FT’s analysis of the Pandemic end-game: 5.2% people have been infected last week, but vaccines are clearly working and saving lives. And there are some spectacular company results hitting the screens.\nBut across the globe supply chain ructions continue. Jaguar Land Rover has shut down a number of factories over the global shortage of chips. There are warning of everything from autos, fridges, toasters to airplanes being delayed due to apparent hoarding by Chinese manufacturers concerned about possible sanctions if the current cold war heats up.\n\nWe have a global explosion of repressed consumer spending set to hit the market.\nThere is a global shortage of goods. (I know this – it looks like our new kitchen will have a wine-chiller shaped gap due to the lack of supply! Shocking…. Simply shocking…)\nThere is the threat of further supply shocks on the back of rising trade and cold-war ructions.\n\nThe world is less stable than we hope. And it boils down to a very simple question. What’s really happening in China?That, I suspect, is the critical factor when it comes to predicting just how strong pandemic recovery will be, or how constrained it may become.\nI saw a headline flash by this morning anticipating Apple iPhone China sales fell in March as sales of new domestic smart-phones kicked in. According to Seeking Alpha high China sales in Jan/Feb have reversed despite the success of the new iPhone 12. (Apple numbers are tomorrow.) Why would China sales fall? Is it because Chinese consumers are increasingly persuaded to buy home-grown product, fuelled by a patriotic duty to do so?\nTesla is finding itself on the receiving end of pointed official China criticism– and Musk (surprisingly) has bowed his head and promised to do better. The headlines about a US Tesla crash where there is a dispute about whether anyone was actually driving is just noise and distraction. The real story is the future for Tesla demand in China.\nIf Tesla was criticised in the US for shoddy servicing, poor customer care, and was accused of breaching privacy rules with car mounted cameras, you can bet Musk would be screaming obscenities, appearing on prime time TV smoking a joint to tell us regulators are idiots, and that the press knows nothing. Allegations of customer dissatisfaction would be steamrollered by a barrage of Tesla Fanboy hate posts and denials refusing to discuss the matter.\nBut, when Tesla gets accused of the same failings in China – suddenly Musk does the right thing and kow-tows, promising to do better. Musk is beginning to understand that displaying “sincerity” in China means doing exactly what the state tells him to do.\nTesla is walking a very thin line in China– and Elon knows it. On one hand, he’s bet the shop on promises the EV maker will deliver big into China. On the other, the recent Shanghai Motor Show featured a couple of Teslas, but, more importantly, a vast number of sophisticated Chinese new models EVs set for launch in the coming year.\nMusk may soon realise the Chinese might just have played him for a chump – supporting and financing his gigafactory build to get EVs established in the Chinese consumer mindset, while also conclusively demonstrating to the Chinese autofirms the foreign rival products they have to beat.\nAnd since we’re talking about Tesla, let’s get off the China theme for a moment, and think about the results it announced y’day: Congratulations to them for beating Q1 expectations. Net income of $438mm, revenues up 74% and 185,000 cars delivered.\nBut… all that glitters is not revenue from car sales… Let’s see… what did the results really tell us? That profit was based on $518 mm of regulatory credit sales and a $101 positive gain from its Bitcoin position and sales. Strip these out and… and Telsa lost $181mm selling cars.\nTo this day I don’t believe Tesla has made a single brass cent selling cars, yet the purveyor of fine regulatory credits and dabbler in cryptocurrencies has made its owner the second richest man on the planet. (And yes.. I still hold a small position in the stock.)\nMore importantly, the Q1 results show Musk is caught between the proverbial rock and river. He knows winning in China is critical for his evolved EV scheme.\nOk – calling Tesla a pyramid scheme is harsh, but Musk knows he needs to keep up the positive news flow; continually demonstrating Telsa’s lead in EV, increasing his production numbers, upping the profits and feeding a never-ending stream of positive spin (like autonomous driving tomorrow – always tomorrow). Without the positive spin driving Tesla marketing and keeping up the stock-price, how will he continue to attract new buyers while persuading current investors to HODL! (Crypto-verse speak for “hold on for dear life”).\nThere is a big missed theme around Tesla – competition.\nTheir EV tech moat is shallow.Today, the firm is still ahead in EV terms of consumer deliverables like quality, range, handling etc, but the rest of the Automotive world; from Tokyo to Munich, from Shanghai to Detroit is playing catch up fast.\nGoing back to China, the party is very keen to see domestic producers not only dominated the China market, but to establish themselves abroad.That’s as true in EVs as it will be in Smart-phones, fridges and all the other paraphernalia of modern life…\nLet, me stir this a bit more. Should you bite the moral bullet and buy HSBC? The potential downside is its engaging with China – but its China that makes the bank so valuable. HSBC is a good illustration of the China conundrum.\nThe geopolitical tensions look high. There are few signs the US and China will reach anything better than a new cold war which is bound to further roil supply chains. There are a surprising number of articles around on how the newly empowered Chinese navy is set to take on American carrier task forces over Taiwan – and hammer them with land-based hyper-missiles. (None of this bodes well for the Big-Lizzie UK carrier strike group heading to the region this summer.)\nThe moral arguments against any China investment can’t be ignored. The treatment of the Uyghurs, surveillance, Tibet and the rest are difficult to square with any ESG investment mandate.\nChina critics will point to the case of Jack Ma and issues of the rule law as further reasons to remain shy of China investors. But its only by fully embracing capitalism and the market economy model – with Chinese Characteristics – the Chinese have been able to so successfully grow their economy and take it through its earlier export-led model to today’s consumption-led economy. The Chinese want their luxury and consumer goods, just like the rest of us.\nThe next couple of months are going to be fascinated in terms of how the China story develops. Trade Wars, its own internal markets, Patriotic buying programmes, and Geopolitics will all feature. At this point, remember my mantra no 4: “Things are seldom as bad as you fear, but never as good as you hope!”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2976,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":378348540,"gmtCreate":1619005775480,"gmtModify":1619005775480,"author":{"id":"3501363053396105","authorId":"3501363053396105","name":"Apalypto","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fbab450c921549cde4ec9a4e485d773","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3501363053396105","authorIdStr":"3501363053396105"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">$京东(JD)$</a>我103的成本山顶站岗...","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">$京东(JD)$</a>我103的成本山顶站岗...","text":"$京东(JD)$我103的成本山顶站岗...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/378348540","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7519,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}