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俺是耕天滴
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俺是耕天滴
俺是耕天滴
·
05-27
现在看真打脸
美债收益率还能到多低？大摩：跌破4%！
分析师表示，自特朗普当选以来，导致去年9月以来收益率走高的诸多因素几乎都已逆转。除了通胀因素，政府开支的潜在削减也对美债收益率构成下行压力。如果市场对美联储降息的预期增强，那么美债收益率就有进一步下行的空间。
美债收益率还能到多低？大摩：跌破4%！
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俺是耕天滴
俺是耕天滴
·
2024-11-12
$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$
双十一数据扑街了吗？这么个跌法。
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俺是耕天滴
俺是耕天滴
·
2024-11-11
真是不怕监管啊，头铁达子
英伟达CEO黄仁勋宣布与联想合作，为企业客户带来巨大机会
要点$英伟达$与联想合作，为企业客户提供定制化解决方案。此举将进一步推动英伟达的芯片销售增长。在人工智能市场蓬勃发展的背景下，英伟达的CEO黄仁勋近期宣布了一项与联想的新合作，旨在加速企业领域的销售。通过与联想合作，英伟达将进军更多的企业客户，提供“联想英伟达混合AI优势”平台，为各类企业提供定制AI解决方案，从而降低收入风险并扩展客户群。与此同时，英伟达的旗舰AI芯片销售依然强劲，需求有增无减。
英伟达CEO黄仁勋宣布与联想合作，为企业客户带来巨大机会
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俺是耕天滴
俺是耕天滴
·
2024-10-30
不太可能，估计最多20%
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俺是耕天滴
俺是耕天滴
·
2024-10-29
$网易(NTES)$
都来抄底吧，不然看那几个大财报可太无聊
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俺是耕天滴
俺是耕天滴
·
2024-10-29
没多少人看好他的财报，软哥这么软不是没有原因的
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俺是耕天滴
俺是耕天滴
·
2024-10-29
137要是破了就直奔130以下了，达子心里苦啊
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俺是耕天滴
俺是耕天滴
·
2024-10-29
他当不当总统都赢大发了
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俺是耕天滴
俺是耕天滴
·
2024-10-28
$英伟达(NVDA)$
105还能买到，别都留在手里啦。
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俺是耕天滴
俺是耕天滴
·
2024-10-28
游戏部门怎么了？
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15:22","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美债收益率还能到多低？大摩：跌破4%！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2514842334","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"分析师表示，自特朗普当选以来，导致去年9月以来收益率走高的诸多因素几乎都已逆转。除了通胀因素，政府开支的潜在削减也对美债收益率构成下行压力。如果市场对美联储降息的预期增强，那么美债收益率就有进一步下行的空间。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>美国国债收益率近期跌破重要技术支撑位，逼近200日移动平均线。自特朗普当选以来，导致去年9月以来收益率走高的诸多因素几乎都已逆转，唯独美联储的“魔咒”仍在持续。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>认为，美国国债收益率与市场隐含的联邦基金利率谷底高度相关，利率还有进一步下探的空间。如果市场隐含的联邦基金利率谷底从目前的3.65%附近回落至2024年10月的3.25%，那么10年期美国国债收益率可能会跌破4.00%。</p><h2 id=\"id_4007869109\">多重因素逆转，唯“鹰”声依旧</h2><p>摩根士丹利在2月26日的报告中表示，自去年9月以来，买方罢工、动量驱动的久期削减、宏观基金的通货再膨胀交易以及美联储的鹰派转向，共同催化了收益率的走高。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/20e489b3098a2fda6de7ce8dc54653c8\" tg-width=\"1201\" tg-height=\"635\"/></p><p>然而，在特朗普正式就职后，这些因素几乎全部逆转：买方罢工结束，动量驱动型抛售转变为动量驱动型买入，宏观基金也开始质疑其通货再膨胀交易。这背后，部分原因是特朗普移民政策对经济增长带来负面影响，以及政府效率部（DOGE）削减开支的消息。</p><p>但与总统大选前相比，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）参与者的言论仍然偏鹰派。市场定价也印证了这一观点，市场隐含的联邦基金利率谷底仍高于12月FOMC会议前的水平。</p><p><strong>除了通胀因素，政府开支的潜在削减也对美债收益率构成下行压力。</strong></p><p>摩根士丹利指出，投资者越来越关注政府部门效率（DOGE）可能带来的成本削减。通过监测一篮子与联邦开支相关的股票表现，可以发现市场对政府开支削减的预期正在升温。如果这种预期蔓延到利率市场，那么中性利率的市场定价可能会面临下行风险。</p><h2 id=\"id_3176162179\">美债收益率还有进一步下行空间</h2><p>摩根士丹利表示，市场对联邦基金利率谷底的定价与长期国债收益率息息相关。市场隐含的联邦基金利率谷底与10年期美国国债收益率之间存在正相关关系。</p><p>换句话说，市场认为美联储最终会将利率降到多低，直接影响着美债的定价。<strong>如果市场对美联储降息的预期增强，那么美债收益率就有进一步下行的空间。</strong></p><p>根据该行分析师的测算：</p><blockquote><p>如果市场隐含的联邦基金利率谷底回落至选举后的低点3.40%（-25个基点），10年期美国国债收益率可能会从4.30%再下降21个基点，达到4.09%。</p><p>如果市场隐含的联邦基金利率谷底回落至10月中旬的3.25%（-40个基点），10年期美国国债收益率可能会从4.30%再下降33个基点，跌破4.00%。</p></blockquote><p>分析师目前预计，本周五公布的核心PCE通胀率将达到2.58%的同比新低，并在接下来的几个月里大幅下降。</p><p>这一路径与其对6月降息的预测相符——市场目前对这一事件的可能性估计约为50%。此外，市场对5月降息的可能性估计要低得多（约20%）。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美债收益率还能到多低？大摩：跌破4%！</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美债收益率还能到多低？大摩：跌破4%！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-02-27 15:22 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3741994><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国国债收益率近期跌破重要技术支撑位，逼近200日移动平均线。自特朗普当选以来，导致去年9月以来收益率走高的诸多因素几乎都已逆转，唯独美联储的“魔咒”仍在持续。摩根士丹利认为，美国国债收益率与市场隐含的联邦基金利率谷底高度相关，利率还有进一步下探的空间。如果市场隐含的联邦基金利率谷底从目前的3.65%附近回落至2024年10月的3.25%，那么10年期美国国债收益率可能会跌破4.00%。多重因素...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3741994\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb7789abffef4e8a7ef6093738b6ad06","relate_stocks":{"TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares","LU0314104364.USD":"MANULIFE GF AMERICAN GROWTH \"AA\" (USD) INC","LU0795875086.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (div) SGD","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU1162221912.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0106261372.USD":"SCHRODER ISF US LARGE CAP \"A\" ACC","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU2089284900.SGD":"Allianz Global Sustainability Cl AM Dis H2-SGD","LU0225283273.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL EQUITY ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0267386448.USD":"FIDELITY FIRST ALL COUNTRY WORLD \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU2271345857.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU2111349929.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG 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SGD-H"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3741994","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2514842334","content_text":"美国国债收益率近期跌破重要技术支撑位，逼近200日移动平均线。自特朗普当选以来，导致去年9月以来收益率走高的诸多因素几乎都已逆转，唯独美联储的“魔咒”仍在持续。摩根士丹利认为，美国国债收益率与市场隐含的联邦基金利率谷底高度相关，利率还有进一步下探的空间。如果市场隐含的联邦基金利率谷底从目前的3.65%附近回落至2024年10月的3.25%，那么10年期美国国债收益率可能会跌破4.00%。多重因素逆转，唯“鹰”声依旧摩根士丹利在2月26日的报告中表示，自去年9月以来，买方罢工、动量驱动的久期削减、宏观基金的通货再膨胀交易以及美联储的鹰派转向，共同催化了收益率的走高。然而，在特朗普正式就职后，这些因素几乎全部逆转：买方罢工结束，动量驱动型抛售转变为动量驱动型买入，宏观基金也开始质疑其通货再膨胀交易。这背后，部分原因是特朗普移民政策对经济增长带来负面影响，以及政府效率部（DOGE）削减开支的消息。但与总统大选前相比，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）参与者的言论仍然偏鹰派。市场定价也印证了这一观点，市场隐含的联邦基金利率谷底仍高于12月FOMC会议前的水平。除了通胀因素，政府开支的潜在削减也对美债收益率构成下行压力。摩根士丹利指出，投资者越来越关注政府部门效率（DOGE）可能带来的成本削减。通过监测一篮子与联邦开支相关的股票表现，可以发现市场对政府开支削减的预期正在升温。如果这种预期蔓延到利率市场，那么中性利率的市场定价可能会面临下行风险。美债收益率还有进一步下行空间摩根士丹利表示，市场对联邦基金利率谷底的定价与长期国债收益率息息相关。市场隐含的联邦基金利率谷底与10年期美国国债收益率之间存在正相关关系。换句话说，市场认为美联储最终会将利率降到多低，直接影响着美债的定价。如果市场对美联储降息的预期增强，那么美债收益率就有进一步下行的空间。根据该行分析师的测算：如果市场隐含的联邦基金利率谷底回落至选举后的低点3.40%（-25个基点），10年期美国国债收益率可能会从4.30%再下降21个基点，达到4.09%。如果市场隐含的联邦基金利率谷底回落至10月中旬的3.25%（-40个基点），10年期美国国债收益率可能会从4.30%再下降33个基点，跌破4.00%。分析师目前预计，本周五公布的核心PCE通胀率将达到2.58%的同比新低，并在接下来的几个月里大幅下降。这一路径与其对6月降息的预测相符——市场目前对这一事件的可能性估计约为50%。此外，市场对5月降息的可能性估计要低得多（约20%）。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOVT":1.1,"TLT":1.1,"ZNmain":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":485,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":370228644606224,"gmtCreate":1731390845013,"gmtModify":1731393689658,"author":{"id":"3502783698654092","authorId":"3502783698654092","name":"俺是耕天滴","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3502783698654092","authorIdStr":"3502783698654092"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSTECH\">$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$ </a> 双十一数据扑街了吗？这么个跌法。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSTECH\">$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$ </a> 双十一数据扑街了吗？这么个跌法。","text":"$恒生科技指数(HSTECH)$ 双十一数据扑街了吗？这么个跌法。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/370228644606224","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2413,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3471210355661451","authorId":"3471210355661451","name":"不高兴的小欣","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be9f320e27bb9010bdd8748b7ecc7bf7","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3471210355661451","authorIdStr":"3471210355661451"},"content":"格局太小了，我来告诉你原因： 首先，特朗普上台，外贸崩。然后美联储降息暂停，人民币崩，最后美元升值内需崩。而我国说：要解决地方债……. 头疼医脚。","text":"格局太小了，我来告诉你原因： 首先，特朗普上台，外贸崩。然后美联储降息暂停，人民币崩，最后美元升值内需崩。而我国说：要解决地方债……. 头疼医脚。","html":"格局太小了，我来告诉你原因： 首先，特朗普上台，外贸崩。然后美联储降息暂停，人民币崩，最后美元升值内需崩。而我国说：要解决地方债……. 头疼医脚。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":369862608171144,"gmtCreate":1731316080474,"gmtModify":1731316081806,"author":{"id":"3502783698654092","authorId":"3502783698654092","name":"俺是耕天滴","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3502783698654092","authorIdStr":"3502783698654092"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"真是不怕监管啊，头铁达子","listText":"真是不怕监管啊，头铁达子","text":"真是不怕监管啊，头铁达子","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/369862608171144","repostId":"1117961888","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1117961888","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为您提供最新股市深度内容和观点","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街洞察","id":"1020552876","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/decf3d8a922fc5c1c1d787bf8b36173f"},"pubTimestamp":1731292310,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1117961888?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-11-11 10:31","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"英伟达CEO黄仁勋宣布与联想合作，为企业客户带来巨大机会","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117961888","media":"华尔街洞察","summary":"要点$英伟达$与联想合作，为企业客户提供定制化解决方案。此举将进一步推动英伟达的芯片销售增长。在人工智能市场蓬勃发展的背景下，英伟达的CEO黄仁勋近期宣布了一项与联想的新合作，旨在加速企业领域的销售。通过与联想合作，英伟达将进军更多的企业客户，提供“联想英伟达混合AI优势”平台，为各类企业提供定制AI解决方案，从而降低收入风险并扩展客户群。与此同时，英伟达的旗舰AI芯片销售依然强劲，需求有增无减。","content":"<p><strong>要点</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>与联想合作，为企业客户提供定制化解决方案。</p></li><li><p>新平台将引入“自主AI”技术。</p></li><li><p>此举将进一步推动英伟达的芯片销售增长。</p></li></ul><p>在人工智能（AI）市场蓬勃发展的背景下，英伟达的CEO黄仁勋近期宣布了一项与联想的新合作，旨在加速企业领域的销售。这项合作不仅提升了英伟达在技术创新方面的优势，还为其业务发展开辟了重要的新方向。</p><p><strong>扩大英伟达的市场份额</strong></p><p>英伟达的收入主要来自<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、Meta和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>等科技巨头，它们依靠英伟达的硬件来支持其AI产品。然而，这种收入来源的集中性也带来了风险：如果这些公司选择自研芯片或转向AMD，英伟达可能会失去大量客户。通过与联想合作，英伟达将进军更多的企业客户，提供“联想英伟达混合AI优势”平台，为各类企业提供定制AI解决方案，从而降低收入风险并扩展客户群。</p><p><strong>引领“自主AI”技术</strong></p><p>此次推出的“自主AI”技术是合作的一大亮点。与目前的生成式AI相比，自主AI具有更高的执行能力，能够在复杂环境中做出合理决策并自主完成任务。例如，一款自主AI营销工具不仅能够规划完整的营销方案，还可以自动执行并实时优化，从而帮助企业大幅提升效率并降低成本。</p><p><strong>未来展望</strong></p><p>尽管自主AI的应用尚在起步阶段，但其潜力巨大，如果能够顺利实现，将为英伟达带来可观的收入增长。与此同时，英伟达的旗舰AI芯片销售依然强劲，需求有增无减。尽管市场上有竞争对手不断赶超，但英伟达凭借其领先的技术和强大的客户基础，短期内仍将占据市场主导地位。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>英伟达CEO黄仁勋宣布与联想合作，为企业客户带来巨大机会</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n英伟达CEO黄仁勋宣布与联想合作，为企业客户带来巨大机会\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1020552876\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/decf3d8a922fc5c1c1d787bf8b36173f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街洞察 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-11-11 10:31</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><strong>要点</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>与联想合作，为企业客户提供定制化解决方案。</p></li><li><p>新平台将引入“自主AI”技术。</p></li><li><p>此举将进一步推动英伟达的芯片销售增长。</p></li></ul><p>在人工智能（AI）市场蓬勃发展的背景下，英伟达的CEO黄仁勋近期宣布了一项与联想的新合作，旨在加速企业领域的销售。这项合作不仅提升了英伟达在技术创新方面的优势，还为其业务发展开辟了重要的新方向。</p><p><strong>扩大英伟达的市场份额</strong></p><p>英伟达的收入主要来自<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、Meta和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>等科技巨头，它们依靠英伟达的硬件来支持其AI产品。然而，这种收入来源的集中性也带来了风险：如果这些公司选择自研芯片或转向AMD，英伟达可能会失去大量客户。通过与联想合作，英伟达将进军更多的企业客户，提供“联想英伟达混合AI优势”平台，为各类企业提供定制AI解决方案，从而降低收入风险并扩展客户群。</p><p><strong>引领“自主AI”技术</strong></p><p>此次推出的“自主AI”技术是合作的一大亮点。与目前的生成式AI相比，自主AI具有更高的执行能力，能够在复杂环境中做出合理决策并自主完成任务。例如，一款自主AI营销工具不仅能够规划完整的营销方案，还可以自动执行并实时优化，从而帮助企业大幅提升效率并降低成本。</p><p><strong>未来展望</strong></p><p>尽管自主AI的应用尚在起步阶段，但其潜力巨大，如果能够顺利实现，将为英伟达带来可观的收入增长。与此同时，英伟达的旗舰AI芯片销售依然强劲，需求有增无减。尽管市场上有竞争对手不断赶超，但英伟达凭借其领先的技术和强大的客户基础，短期内仍将占据市场主导地位。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00BHPRN162.USD":"BNY 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