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- 香蕉牛奶和香油香蕉牛奶和香油
  ·09-09
  什么弱智统计学分析。那不是等于降息后股股市平稳或者上升的可能性高达百分之六十吗
  降息必利好股市？历史数据降息后美股下跌概率最高达40%
  "降息必然利好股市"——这一被广泛接受的认知正受到历史数据的严峻挑战。"美联储降息与股市表现的关系正是最佳例证。自1980年以来历次美联储降息后的数据显示：降息一个月后股市下跌的概率高达40%，六个月后下跌概率为37%，即便在十二个月后仍有27%的下跌可能。该报告意外疲软，推高了美联储在9月议息会议上降息的可能性。这种预期意味着，若美联储本月宣布降息，市场表现或许并不乐观。
  降息必利好股市？历史数据降息后美股下跌概率最高达40%
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- 香蕉牛奶和香油香蕉牛奶和香油
  ·2019-10-29
  $Lyft, Inc.(LYFT)$什么时候涨回60就算奇迹了
  3,858 2
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- 香蕉牛奶和香油香蕉牛奶和香油
  ·2019-04-03
  $特斯拉(TSLA)$ 彭博社和华尔街预测差别极大，说不准了
  2,924 评论
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- 香蕉牛奶和香油香蕉牛奶和香油
  ·2019-04-03
  $Lyft, Inc.(LYFT)$ 早前的私募价在40左右，哈哈
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14:22","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"降息必利好股市？历史数据降息后美股下跌概率最高达40%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149411232","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"\"降息必然利好股市\"——这一被广泛接受的认知正受到历史数据的严峻挑战。\"美联储降息与股市表现的关系正是最佳例证。自1980年以来历次美联储降息后的数据显示：降息一个月后股市下跌的概率高达40%，六个月后下跌概率为37%，即便在十二个月后仍有27%的下跌可能。该报告意外疲软，推高了美联储在9月议息会议上降息的可能性。这种预期意味着，若美联储本月宣布降息，市场表现或许并不乐观。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>&#34;降息必然利好股市&#34;——这一被广泛接受的认知正受到历史数据的严峻挑战。逆向分析之父汉弗莱·尼尔（Humphrey Neill）曾警示：&#34;当众人想法一致时，往往可能集体犯错。&#34;美联储降息与股市表现的关系正是最佳例证。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">自1980年以来历次美联储降息后的数据显示：<strong>降息一个月后股市下跌的概率高达40%</strong>，六个月后下跌概率为37%，即便在十二个月后仍有27%的下跌可能。这些统计明确表明，<strong>即便美联储如市场预期在9月会议降息，也远不能保证股市必然上涨</strong>。</p><h2 id=\"id_2608270648\">为什么美联储降息后股市有时会下跌？</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">普遍认识是，如果在经济相对强劲的情况下降息，市场往往会上涨；如果在经济疲软的情况下降息，市场往往会下跌。</p><p>这一规律有助于解读上周股市对 8 月份就业报告的反应。该报告意外疲软，推高了美联储在9月议息会议上降息的可能性。标普 500指数起初因这一消息短暂上涨，但随后迅速逆转走势 —— 这或许是因为投资者意识到，经济衰退的风险可能正在逼近。</p><p>这种预期意味着，若美联储本月宣布降息，市场表现或许并不乐观。</p><h2 id=\"id_4172065443\">数据相关性：与普遍认知相反的趋势</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">从数据相关性来看，标普500指数的每日变化与美联储本月降息概率之间的关系，也为 “降息后市场可能低迷” 提供了支撑。芝加哥商品交易所（CME）的 FedWatch工具过去 12 个月来，每个交易日都会根据30天联邦基金期货计算降息概率。</p><p>几乎所有投资者都认为二者呈反向相关：预期联邦基金利率上升，标普500指数就会下降，反之亦然。</p><p>但实际数据却显示相反的趋势：过去12个月，平均而言，当市场对 9 月份会议后联邦基金利率的预期高于前一天时，标普500指数的表现反而更好。这一相关性在统计学家常用的 95% 置信水平上具有显著性，表明这种模式并非偶然。</p><p>以今年4月2日的市场反应为例，当日白宫宣布 “解放日” 关税政策后，关税举措增加了经济衰退甚至更糟情况的预期可能性。因此，在4月2日之后的一周，股市与预期联邦基金利率双双下跌，标普500指数暴跌，对9月会议后联邦基金利率的预期下降26个基点，这对于通常平稳的联邦基金期货市场而言，单周跌幅已相当显著。</p><p>而一周后，当特朗普总统宣布暂停大部分 “解放日” 关税 90 天时，上述趋势随即逆转：声明发布当天，标普500指数飙升9.5%，对9月会议后联邦基金利率的隐含预期也跃升 23 个基点。</p><h2 id=\"id_1632363643\">投资者如何面对9月降息会议</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">对于投资者而言，可从中汲取两大启示：其一，需审慎对待对降息的过度期待，美联储降息未必是利好，甚至可能暗藏利空信号；</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">其二，应始终愿意让自己的固有信念接受统计学检验，尤其是那些被几乎所有人认同的观点。这类观点最具危险性，因其广泛传播而容易被盲目遵循，一旦被证明错误，投资者将面临更大风险。</p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>降息必利好股市？历史数据降息后美股下跌概率最高达40%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n降息必利好股市？历史数据降息后美股下跌概率最高达40%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-09-09 14:22</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>&#34;降息必然利好股市&#34;——这一被广泛接受的认知正受到历史数据的严峻挑战。逆向分析之父汉弗莱·尼尔（Humphrey Neill）曾警示：&#34;当众人想法一致时，往往可能集体犯错。&#34;美联储降息与股市表现的关系正是最佳例证。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">自1980年以来历次美联储降息后的数据显示：<strong>降息一个月后股市下跌的概率高达40%</strong>，六个月后下跌概率为37%，即便在十二个月后仍有27%的下跌可能。这些统计明确表明，<strong>即便美联储如市场预期在9月会议降息，也远不能保证股市必然上涨</strong>。</p><h2 id=\"id_2608270648\">为什么美联储降息后股市有时会下跌？</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">普遍认识是，如果在经济相对强劲的情况下降息，市场往往会上涨；如果在经济疲软的情况下降息，市场往往会下跌。</p><p>这一规律有助于解读上周股市对 8 月份就业报告的反应。该报告意外疲软，推高了美联储在9月议息会议上降息的可能性。标普 500指数起初因这一消息短暂上涨，但随后迅速逆转走势 —— 这或许是因为投资者意识到，经济衰退的风险可能正在逼近。</p><p>这种预期意味着，若美联储本月宣布降息，市场表现或许并不乐观。</p><h2 id=\"id_4172065443\">数据相关性：与普遍认知相反的趋势</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">从数据相关性来看，标普500指数的每日变化与美联储本月降息概率之间的关系，也为 “降息后市场可能低迷” 提供了支撑。芝加哥商品交易所（CME）的 FedWatch工具过去 12 个月来，每个交易日都会根据30天联邦基金期货计算降息概率。</p><p>几乎所有投资者都认为二者呈反向相关：预期联邦基金利率上升，标普500指数就会下降，反之亦然。</p><p>但实际数据却显示相反的趋势：过去12个月，平均而言，当市场对 9 月份会议后联邦基金利率的预期高于前一天时，标普500指数的表现反而更好。这一相关性在统计学家常用的 95% 置信水平上具有显著性，表明这种模式并非偶然。</p><p>以今年4月2日的市场反应为例，当日白宫宣布 “解放日” 关税政策后，关税举措增加了经济衰退甚至更糟情况的预期可能性。因此，在4月2日之后的一周，股市与预期联邦基金利率双双下跌，标普500指数暴跌，对9月会议后联邦基金利率的预期下降26个基点，这对于通常平稳的联邦基金期货市场而言，单周跌幅已相当显著。</p><p>而一周后，当特朗普总统宣布暂停大部分 “解放日” 关税 90 天时，上述趋势随即逆转：声明发布当天，标普500指数飙升9.5%，对9月会议后联邦基金利率的隐含预期也跃升 23 个基点。</p><h2 id=\"id_1632363643\">投资者如何面对9月降息会议</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">对于投资者而言，可从中汲取两大启示：其一，需审慎对待对降息的过度期待，美联储降息未必是利好，甚至可能暗藏利空信号；</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">其二，应始终愿意让自己的固有信念接受统计学检验，尤其是那些被几乎所有人认同的观点。这类观点最具危险性，因其广泛传播而容易被盲目遵循，一旦被证明错误，投资者将面临更大风险。</p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59f80b4f5ca39b50a8c2a9898ba64544","relate_stocks":{"SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPXL":"Direxion每日三倍看多标普500ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149411232","content_text":"\"降息必然利好股市\"——这一被广泛接受的认知正受到历史数据的严峻挑战。逆向分析之父汉弗莱·尼尔（Humphrey Neill）曾警示：\"当众人想法一致时，往往可能集体犯错。\"美联储降息与股市表现的关系正是最佳例证。自1980年以来历次美联储降息后的数据显示：降息一个月后股市下跌的概率高达40%，六个月后下跌概率为37%，即便在十二个月后仍有27%的下跌可能。这些统计明确表明，即便美联储如市场预期在9月会议降息，也远不能保证股市必然上涨。为什么美联储降息后股市有时会下跌？普遍认识是，如果在经济相对强劲的情况下降息，市场往往会上涨；如果在经济疲软的情况下降息，市场往往会下跌。这一规律有助于解读上周股市对 8 月份就业报告的反应。该报告意外疲软，推高了美联储在9月议息会议上降息的可能性。标普 500指数起初因这一消息短暂上涨，但随后迅速逆转走势 —— 这或许是因为投资者意识到，经济衰退的风险可能正在逼近。这种预期意味着，若美联储本月宣布降息，市场表现或许并不乐观。数据相关性：与普遍认知相反的趋势从数据相关性来看，标普500指数的每日变化与美联储本月降息概率之间的关系，也为 “降息后市场可能低迷” 提供了支撑。芝加哥商品交易所（CME）的 FedWatch工具过去 12 个月来，每个交易日都会根据30天联邦基金期货计算降息概率。几乎所有投资者都认为二者呈反向相关：预期联邦基金利率上升，标普500指数就会下降，反之亦然。但实际数据却显示相反的趋势：过去12个月，平均而言，当市场对 9 月份会议后联邦基金利率的预期高于前一天时，标普500指数的表现反而更好。这一相关性在统计学家常用的 95% 置信水平上具有显著性，表明这种模式并非偶然。以今年4月2日的市场反应为例，当日白宫宣布 “解放日” 关税政策后，关税举措增加了经济衰退甚至更糟情况的预期可能性。因此，在4月2日之后的一周，股市与预期联邦基金利率双双下跌，标普500指数暴跌，对9月会议后联邦基金利率的预期下降26个基点，这对于通常平稳的联邦基金期货市场而言，单周跌幅已相当显著。而一周后，当特朗普总统宣布暂停大部分 “解放日” 关税 90 天时，上述趋势随即逆转：声明发布当天，标普500指数飙升9.5%，对9月会议后联邦基金利率的隐含预期也跃升 23 个基点。投资者如何面对9月降息会议对于投资者而言，可从中汲取两大启示：其一，需审慎对待对降息的过度期待，美联储降息未必是利好，甚至可能暗藏利空信号；其二，应始终愿意让自己的固有信念接受统计学检验，尤其是那些被几乎所有人认同的观点。这类观点最具危险性，因其广泛传播而容易被盲目遵循，一旦被证明错误，投资者将面临更大风险。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":1.1,".IXIC":1.1,".SPX":1.1,"ESmain":1.1,"NQmain":1.1,"QQQ":1.1,"SDOW":1.1,"SPXL":1.1,"SPY":1.1,"SQQQ":1.1,"TQQQ":1.1,"YMmain":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":289,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":936248128,"gmtCreate":1572279938064,"gmtModify":1704723953200,"author":{"id":"3508887991451263","authorId":"3508887991451263","name":"香蕉牛奶和香油","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3508887991451263","authorIdStr":"3508887991451263"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LYFT\">$Lyft, Inc.(LYFT)$</a>什么时候涨回60就算奇迹了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LYFT\">$Lyft, Inc.(LYFT)$</a>什么时候涨回60就算奇迹了","text":"$Lyft, 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彭博社和华尔街预测差别极大，说不准了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/453379","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2924,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":453335,"gmtCreate":1554221395323,"gmtModify":1704796180765,"author":{"id":"3508887991451263","authorId":"3508887991451263","name":"香蕉牛奶和香油","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3508887991451263","authorIdStr":"3508887991451263"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$Lyft, Inc.(LYFT)$ 早前的私募价在40左右，哈哈","listText":"$Lyft, Inc.(LYFT)$ 早前的私募价在40左右，哈哈","text":"$Lyft, Inc.(LYFT)$ 早前的私募价在40左右，哈哈","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcf8f758163d6ec043b820bb1e2ea1fa"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/453335","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5822,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}