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- 情人狗哥情人狗哥
  ·11-05
  一天一个观点坑了投资者
  拥挤的赌局：铜价高位闪崩5%，一场多空绞杀正在上演
  历史高点坠落，拥挤持仓暗藏风险！多空力量在关键支撑位拉锯，铜价命悬一线，但未来走向却埋着所有人都忽略的变数。
  拥挤的赌局：铜价高位闪崩5%，一场多空绞杀正在上演
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- 情人狗哥情人狗哥
  ·2023-09-07
  $瑞幸咖啡(LKNCY)$ 不是退市了吗？怎么还在啊？
  2,394 评论
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- 情人狗哥情人狗哥
  ·2023-04-25
  $陆金所(LU)$ 诈骗啊快跑啊
  2,143 评论
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- 情人狗哥情人狗哥
  ·2023-04-25
  $荔枝(LIZI)$ 还没有退市啊
  4,751 评论
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- 情人狗哥情人狗哥
  ·2023-02-25
  $荔枝(LIZI)$ 还不退市啊？
  5,893 评论
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- 情人狗哥情人狗哥
  ·2021-07-19
  $Express(EXPR)$这个品牌在美国到底怎么样有人在美国吗？
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- 情人狗哥情人狗哥
  ·2021-06-30
  $Express(EXPR)$起飞坐稳
  2,336 评论
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- 情人狗哥情人狗哥
  ·2021-06-29
  $Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$亏1w 我走了垃圾公司
  3,352 评论
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- 情人狗哥情人狗哥
  ·2021-06-29
  $Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$这个股票上市当天的市值多少？能查到吗？
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- 情人狗哥情人狗哥
  ·2021-06-19
  $Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$上市市值7亿美金现在20多亿美金市值涨几倍股价跌的一逼为什么？？？
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&nbsp;坑了投资者","listText":"一天一个观点 &nbsp;坑了投资者","text":"一天一个观点 坑了投资者","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/496764783804872","repostId":"2580481731","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2580481731","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1762260780,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2580481731?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-11-04 20:53","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"拥挤的赌局：铜价高位闪崩5%，一场多空绞杀正在上演","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2580481731","media":"来源：原创      编辑：","summary":" 历史高点坠落，拥挤持仓暗藏风险！多空力量在关键支撑位拉锯，铜价命悬一线，但未来走向却埋着所有人都忽略的变数。 ","content":"<html><body><div>\n<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603176\">汇通</a>财经APP讯——</b>LME上周铜价触及历史高点后，开始回落，截止发稿已累计回落约5%。<br/><br/>周二（11月4日）欧洲时段受<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">美元指数</a></span>走强以及美国等国家ISM，PMI不及市场预期，结合期货交易性逼仓影响，<span>LME铜</span>加速寻底。<br/><br/>本文简单归纳了近期市场一些关注点。<br/><br/><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>分析师团队判断，近期铜价上涨由多重因素共同驱动：<span>美元指数</span>走弱、中国经济增长预期改善、实物市场供需趋紧，叠加投资者看涨情绪升温。<br/><br/>他们同时指出，当前市场持仓已进入极端区间，处于99百分位水平，但未平仓合约规模仍维持低位。<br/><br/><img src=\"https://upload.fx678img.com/upload/ht/20240807/sy_2024080711502496.jpg\"/><br/><br/><h2>全球PMI偏冷，抑制铜价上行</h2><br/>由于美国ISM的PMI考察的主要是包括跨国公司等大型企业的生产情况，这些企业国际化水平较高，数据显示他们的经营状况低于预期处在荣枯线以下。<br/><br/>同时结合上周五主要关注美国国内企业的SPGI数据超预期，可以知道全球整体公司开工情况不乐观，结合欧洲和亚洲等国家PMI没有明显扩张迹象，铜价受影响由历史高点开始回落。<br/><br/><h2>持仓拥挤，容易出现方向快速逆转</h2><br/>高盛分析师团队判断，近期铜价上涨由多重因素共同驱动：<span>美元指数</span>走弱、多国经济增长预期改善、实物市场供需趋紧，叠加投资者看涨情绪升温。<br/><br/>他们同时指出，当前市场持仓已进入极端区间，处于99百分位水平，但未平仓合约规模仍维持低位。<br/><br/>综合上述因素，分析师团队认为，投资者或进一步增持铜类资产并推动价格突破，但这种突破行情注定短暂——核心原因在于，当前实物市场尚未进入供应短缺状态。<br/><br/>于是这波铜价的回调可能会导致多头过度拥挤，涨跌转向导致平仓踩踏。<br/><br/><h2>机构观点：</h2><br/>高盛分析师团队判断，市场预期的基本面紧缺格局在未来六个月内不会显现。<br/><br/>即便将全球精炼铜产量大幅下滑的因素纳入考量，我们仍维持原有观点：2026年铜市将呈现小幅过剩态势，这与我们对2026年铜价10,500美元/吨的预测逻辑一致。<br/><br/>其预计，投资者将在2026年初启动铜类资产的减持操作。<br/><br/>需特别提及的是，艾芬豪矿业CEO罗伯特·弗里德兰提出了相反观点：<br/><br/>其认为电网投资将是之后电力投资的核心议题——而电网建设对铜的需求强度极高。<br/><br/>显然，这能使未来五年内将电网投资规模提升30%-40%，这意味着电网投资的复合年增长率将达5%-5.5%，较过去五年3.3%的年均增速显著提升。<br/><br/>从铜需求维度测算，这一规划将带来每年约10万吨的新增铜需求。<br/><br/>该消息具备重要参考价值，但需注意，全球铜年需求量约为2800万吨，目前并未出现明显的短缺而且电网贡献对铜的需求影响有限，但是与此同时，美国电网同样迫切需要大规模资本投入，新旧动能的转换下铜未来依然可能面临紧缺。<br/><br/><h2>技术分析：</h2><br/>通过LME日线图可知，<span>LME铜</span>突破历史高点后回调，斐波那契数列0.809分位为10608。此处同时为前期交易密集区，此处为关键支撑，铜价多空双方可能依据此位置展开拉锯。<br/><br/>下一个关键价位为斐波那契0.764分位的10498点，这些都是关键的支撑位。<br/><br/><img src=\"https://upload.fx678img.com/upload/ht/20251104/sy_2025110420454016.png\"/><br/>（<span>LME铜</span>日线图，来源:易<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603409\">汇通</a>）<br/><br/>北京时间20:46,<span>LME铜</span>现报10613美元/吨。\n                                            </div></body></html>","source":"fx678_fut","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>拥挤的赌局：铜价高位闪崩5%，一场多空绞杀正在上演</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n拥挤的赌局：铜价高位闪崩5%，一场多空绞杀正在上演\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-11-04 20:53 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://news.fx678.com//202511042050269099.shtml><strong>来源：原创      编辑：</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>汇通财经APP讯——LME上周铜价触及历史高点后，开始回落，截止发稿已累计回落约5%。周二（11月4日）欧洲时段受美元指数走强以及美国等国家ISM，PMI不及市场预期，结合期货交易性逼仓影响，LME铜加速寻底。本文简单归纳了近期市场一些关注点。高盛分析师团队判断，近期铜价上涨由多重因素共同驱动：美元指数走弱、中国经济增长预期改善、实物市场供需趋紧，叠加投资者看涨情绪升温。他们同时指出，当前市场持仓...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://news.fx678.com//202511042050269099.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://upload.fx678img.com/upload/ht/20240807/sy_2024080711502496.jpg","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://news.fx678.com//202511042050269099.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2580481731","content_text":"汇通财经APP讯——LME上周铜价触及历史高点后，开始回落，截止发稿已累计回落约5%。周二（11月4日）欧洲时段受美元指数走强以及美国等国家ISM，PMI不及市场预期，结合期货交易性逼仓影响，LME铜加速寻底。本文简单归纳了近期市场一些关注点。高盛分析师团队判断，近期铜价上涨由多重因素共同驱动：美元指数走弱、中国经济增长预期改善、实物市场供需趋紧，叠加投资者看涨情绪升温。他们同时指出，当前市场持仓已进入极端区间，处于99百分位水平，但未平仓合约规模仍维持低位。全球PMI偏冷，抑制铜价上行由于美国ISM的PMI考察的主要是包括跨国公司等大型企业的生产情况，这些企业国际化水平较高，数据显示他们的经营状况低于预期处在荣枯线以下。同时结合上周五主要关注美国国内企业的SPGI数据超预期，可以知道全球整体公司开工情况不乐观，结合欧洲和亚洲等国家PMI没有明显扩张迹象，铜价受影响由历史高点开始回落。持仓拥挤，容易出现方向快速逆转高盛分析师团队判断，近期铜价上涨由多重因素共同驱动：美元指数走弱、多国经济增长预期改善、实物市场供需趋紧，叠加投资者看涨情绪升温。他们同时指出，当前市场持仓已进入极端区间，处于99百分位水平，但未平仓合约规模仍维持低位。综合上述因素，分析师团队认为，投资者或进一步增持铜类资产并推动价格突破，但这种突破行情注定短暂——核心原因在于，当前实物市场尚未进入供应短缺状态。于是这波铜价的回调可能会导致多头过度拥挤，涨跌转向导致平仓踩踏。机构观点：高盛分析师团队判断，市场预期的基本面紧缺格局在未来六个月内不会显现。即便将全球精炼铜产量大幅下滑的因素纳入考量，我们仍维持原有观点：2026年铜市将呈现小幅过剩态势，这与我们对2026年铜价10,500美元/吨的预测逻辑一致。其预计，投资者将在2026年初启动铜类资产的减持操作。需特别提及的是，艾芬豪矿业CEO罗伯特·弗里德兰提出了相反观点：其认为电网投资将是之后电力投资的核心议题——而电网建设对铜的需求强度极高。显然，这能使未来五年内将电网投资规模提升30%-40%，这意味着电网投资的复合年增长率将达5%-5.5%，较过去五年3.3%的年均增速显著提升。从铜需求维度测算，这一规划将带来每年约10万吨的新增铜需求。该消息具备重要参考价值，但需注意，全球铜年需求量约为2800万吨，目前并未出现明显的短缺而且电网贡献对铜的需求影响有限，但是与此同时，美国电网同样迫切需要大规模资本投入，新旧动能的转换下铜未来依然可能面临紧缺。技术分析：通过LME日线图可知，LME铜突破历史高点后回调，斐波那契数列0.809分位为10608。此处同时为前期交易密集区，此处为关键支撑，铜价多空双方可能依据此位置展开拉锯。下一个关键价位为斐波那契0.764分位的10498点，这些都是关键的支撑位。（LME铜日线图，来源:易汇通）北京时间20:46,LME铜现报10613美元/吨。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HGmain":0.9,"MHGmain":0.9,"QCmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":102,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":217196524310648,"gmtCreate":1694049600552,"gmtModify":1694049601445,"author":{"id":"3509872331281836","authorId":"3509872331281836","name":"情人狗哥","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8809bed115db59ed9866da911474a798","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3509872331281836","authorIdStr":"3509872331281836"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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