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F1D189
F1D189
·
2024-05-29
👍🏻
瑞银：腾讯无意发行可换股债券，更愿意继续回购自家股份
相信回购自家股份或外部投资所产生的内部报酬率(IRR)更高。
瑞银：腾讯无意发行可换股债券，更愿意继续回购自家股份
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F1D189
F1D189
·
2024-03-21
这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看
非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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F1D189
F1D189
·
2022-06-01
牛批
前PIMCO CEO：美国经济依旧强劲，美联储9月后应继续加息
太平洋投资管理公司(PIMCO)前CEO Mohamed El-Erian周三表示，美国目前的经济仍然强劲，但他担心美联储会过早放松加息举措，导致通胀持续下去。El-Erian认为，美联储应暗示将继续
前PIMCO CEO：美国经济依旧强劲，美联储9月后应继续加息
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F1D189
F1D189
·
2022-05-20
要回购？
非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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F1D189
F1D189
·
2022-05-12
3000 能抗住？
华尔街最大空头：悲观预期下，标普可能跌到3350点
大摩长期看空美股的首席策略师Michael Wilson指出，股市大跌尚未结束，“冰”的情景已经来临，并会持续更久。在悲观预期下，利润压力持续存在，销售增长大幅减速，每股收益增长转负，出现经济衰退。
华尔街最大空头：悲观预期下，标普可能跌到3350点
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F1D189
F1D189
·
2021-04-09
$亿邦国际(EBON)$
干爆空头，有什么资格指手画脚
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F1D189
F1D189
·
2021-02-04
$Playtika Holding Corp.(PLTK)$
打压的越厉害，反弹的也越厉害，拭目以待
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F1D189
F1D189
·
2021-01-16
$AMC院线(AMC)$
发生了什么
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F1D189
F1D189
·
2021-01-14
$乐信(LX)$
mark 该醒醒了
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F1D189
F1D189
·
2021-01-12
$微美全息(WIMI)$
敢不敢跌到三块钱？
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style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-05-29 16:57</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>瑞银发表报告指出，与腾讯首席战略官James Mitchell进行炉边谈话，<strong>集团透露无意发行可换股债券，因集团自由现金流强劲(该行料2024财年达340亿美元)、投资组合规模大，加上于3月底止拥有120亿美元的净现金，有望继续为股份回购提供资金。</strong>尽管票面利率较低，但管理层认为发行可转债的实际成本是最终导致股权稀释，相信回购自家股份或外部投资所产生的内部报酬率(IRR)更高。</p><p>该行引述腾讯管理层对人工智能初创公司投资方面较为谨慎，并持选择性态度，目前投资表现良好。腾讯在算力及内容方面具有优势。此外，随着削减成本的时代基本过去，腾讯仍能从收入结构的转变和高毛利率的新业务中，实现明显的毛利上升空间。投资方面，虽然主要的投资组合是基于财务决策，惟部分战略合作关系，如对游戏工作室和唱片公司的上游投资，仍有待全面展开。</p><p>该行认为腾讯管理层对前景正面，已明确提出未来的增长动力，包括近期成功推出《地下城与勇士》及Supercell游戏正恢复，以及中期电商直播、AI与投资等因素。该行重申对腾讯“买入”评级，目标价480港元。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7799eeb7043b8caaf3d109c3b13109e","relate_stocks":{"00700":"腾讯控股"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129581411","content_text":"瑞银发表报告指出，与腾讯首席战略官James Mitchell进行炉边谈话，集团透露无意发行可换股债券，因集团自由现金流强劲(该行料2024财年达340亿美元)、投资组合规模大，加上于3月底止拥有120亿美元的净现金，有望继续为股份回购提供资金。尽管票面利率较低，但管理层认为发行可转债的实际成本是最终导致股权稀释，相信回购自家股份或外部投资所产生的内部报酬率(IRR)更高。该行引述腾讯管理层对人工智能初创公司投资方面较为谨慎，并持选择性态度，目前投资表现良好。腾讯在算力及内容方面具有优势。此外，随着削减成本的时代基本过去，腾讯仍能从收入结构的转变和高毛利率的新业务中，实现明显的毛利上升空间。投资方面，虽然主要的投资组合是基于财务决策，惟部分战略合作关系，如对游戏工作室和唱片公司的上游投资，仍有待全面展开。该行认为腾讯管理层对前景正面，已明确提出未来的增长动力，包括近期成功推出《地下城与勇士》及Supercell游戏正恢复，以及中期电商直播、AI与投资等因素。该行重申对腾讯“买入”评级，目标价480港元。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":759,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":286724631814440,"gmtCreate":1711021268584,"gmtModify":1711021270212,"author":{"id":"3521456159127007","authorId":"3521456159127007","name":"F1D189","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbc1a90d5d379acef761df781be13344","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3521456159127007","authorIdStr":"3521456159127007"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/286724631814440","repostId":"2421943460","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1134,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":617104901,"gmtCreate":1654091094607,"gmtModify":1704858806694,"author":{"id":"3521456159127007","authorId":"3521456159127007","name":"F1D189","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbc1a90d5d379acef761df781be13344","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3521456159127007","authorIdStr":"3521456159127007"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"牛批 ","listText":"牛批 ","text":"牛批","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/617104901","repostId":"2240413421","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2240413421","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1654090922,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2240413421?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-06-01 21:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"前PIMCO CEO：美国经济依旧强劲，美联储9月后应继续加息","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2240413421","media":"智通财经","summary":"太平洋投资管理公司(PIMCO)前CEO Mohamed El-Erian周三表示，美国目前的经济仍然强劲，但他担心美联储会过早放松加息举措，导致通胀持续下去。El-Erian认为，美联储应暗示将继续","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601099\">太平洋</a>投资管理公司(PIMCO)前CEO Mohamed El-Erian周三表示，美国目前的经济仍然强劲，但他担心美联储会过早放松加息举措，导致通胀持续下去。</p><p>El-Erian认为，美联储应暗示将继续加息，直到通胀得到控制。因此，他对美联储目前释放的信号有所担心，该信号暗示美联储将在9月份停止加息，以评估经济状况。</p><p>El-Erian表示，“我对美联储在9月暂停加息的想法感到非常困惑。美联储应该在接下来的两次会议之后发出信号，表明它打算继续升息，直到通胀预期得到充分控制。”</p><p>El-Erian认为，如果不采取积极行动，通胀问题将延续到明年，“不仅对市场，还会对实体经济造成影响”。</p><p>与此同时，El-Erian淡化了最终衰退的风险，声称“美国目前的经济仍然相当强劲”。他指出，劳动力市场是经济持续增长的有力支撑。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>前PIMCO CEO：美国经济依旧强劲，美联储9月后应继续加息</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n前PIMCO CEO：美国经济依旧强劲，美联储9月后应继续加息\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-01 21:42 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/732778.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>太平洋投资管理公司(PIMCO)前CEO Mohamed El-Erian周三表示，美国目前的经济仍然强劲，但他担心美联储会过早放松加息举措，导致通胀持续下去。El-Erian认为，美联储应暗示将继续加息，直到通胀得到控制。因此，他对美联储目前释放的信号有所担心，该信号暗示美联储将在9月份停止加息，以评估经济状况。El-Erian表示，“我对美联储在9月暂停加息的想法感到非常困惑。美联储应该在...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/732778.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","DOG":"道指反向ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 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El-Erian周三表示，美国目前的经济仍然强劲，但他担心美联储会过早放松加息举措，导致通胀持续下去。El-Erian认为，美联储应暗示将继续加息，直到通胀得到控制。因此，他对美联储目前释放的信号有所担心，该信号暗示美联储将在9月份停止加息，以评估经济状况。El-Erian表示，“我对美联储在9月暂停加息的想法感到非常困惑。美联储应该在接下来的两次会议之后发出信号，表明它打算继续升息，直到通胀预期得到充分控制。”El-Erian认为，如果不采取积极行动，通胀问题将延续到明年，“不仅对市场，还会对实体经济造成影响”。与此同时，El-Erian淡化了最终衰退的风险，声称“美国目前的经济仍然相当强劲”。他指出，劳动力市场是经济持续增长的有力支撑。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1485,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":615225587,"gmtCreate":1652980647449,"gmtModify":1652980647449,"author":{"id":"3521456159127007","authorId":"3521456159127007","name":"F1D189","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbc1a90d5d379acef761df781be13344","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3521456159127007","authorIdStr":"3521456159127007"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"要回购？","listText":"要回购？","text":"要回购？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/615225587","repostId":"1153511060","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1903,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":612218061,"gmtCreate":1652352574053,"gmtModify":1652352574053,"author":{"id":"3521456159127007","authorId":"3521456159127007","name":"F1D189","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbc1a90d5d379acef761df781be13344","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3521456159127007","authorIdStr":"3521456159127007"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"3000 能抗住？","listText":"3000 能抗住？","text":"3000 能抗住？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/612218061","repostId":"2234846944","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2234846944","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1652345006,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2234846944?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-05-12 16:43","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"华尔街最大空头：悲观预期下，标普可能跌到3350点","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2234846944","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"大摩长期看空美股的首席策略师Michael Wilson指出，股市大跌尚未结束，“冰”的情景已经来临，并会持续更久。在悲观预期下，利润压力持续存在，销售增长大幅减速，每股收益增长转负，出现经济衰退。","content":"<html><body><p>近日，美股接连暴跌，三大股指均创下一年多来新低。</p>\n<p>暴跌之后，市场出现不同声音。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>策略师Peter Oppenheimer认为投资者已经消化了很多负面情绪，暗示暴跌后创造买入机会。而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>长期看空美股的首席股票策略师Michael Wilson则在最新的报告中重申，<strong>股市大跌尚未结束，随着经济增长放缓的担忧加剧，认为美股仍有进一步回调空间。</strong></p>\n<p>Wilson警告称，美股尚未给当前放缓的经济增长定价。根据<span>Wilson</span>的公允价值框架，标普500指数当前定价仍是错误的，他利用PMI与股票风险溢价随时间变化的关系，预测出当前水平下远期市盈率是16倍，标普指数的价格区间为3700-3800点。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/fbb55a8e-ab02-419f-9dfa-daea94d7598a.jpg\"/></p>\n<p>但这只是温和情况预测，<strong>Wilson认为“冰”的情景已经来临，并会持续更久。在悲观预期下，明年第二季度标普指数可能跌到3350点。</strong></p>\n<h2>“冰”的情景已经来临，并会持续更久</h2>\n<p>先来回顾一下“冰与火”的基本情景设定，去年，Wilson在报告中指出，市场正处于“冰”与“火”的对弈之中，“火”即经济复苏过热，通胀居高不下，美联储开启紧缩政策；“冰”指消费者信心急剧下降，经济陷入衰退。</p>\n<p>快进到现在，这些情景正在发生，通胀达到40年来最高水平，美联储比预期更早地转向强硬的货币政策，消费者信心出现下降的迹象，“冰”的情景来临。</p>\n<p>从增长率的角度来看，公司盈利增长率超过前一个周期的峰值后，现在开始减速。积极经营杠杆带来的早中期收益已经过去，美国企业现在将面临着销售增长减速和成本上升的局面，利润率压缩和增长放缓将导致盈利增长放缓。再加上采购经理人指数（PMI）的减速，Wilson预计明年的收益增长将出现下滑。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/516f4b31-2a4b-44de-b547-8d862e2c1f0d.jpg\"/></p>\n<p>同时，Wilson预计未来12个月股市波动率将保持较高水平。<strong>盈利增长放缓和波动率上升让他坚信，“冰”的情景已经到来，而且持续的时间比预计的更久。</strong></p>\n<p><strong>为什么Wilson的“冰”情景能在一个更热更短的周期内持续下去？原因有四点：</strong></p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>俄乌冲突加剧了通胀压力，尤其是在能源和食品方面，这些成本压力将继续影响本已低迷的消费者情绪。</p>\n<p>劳动力和投入成本压力仍然存在，并对企业利润率构成风险。</p>\n<p>紧缩的货币政策正在产生经济影响，尤其是在住房市场，抵押贷款成本不断上升，家庭的负担能力正在恶化。</p>\n<p>消费品库存存在过剩的迹象，这意味着公司定价能力会受影响，并可能会持续几个季度。</p>\n</blockquote>\n<h2>美股的三种预期情景</h2>\n<p><strong>最后，Wilson给出到美股三种不同的预期情景。</strong></p>\n<p><strong>1、温和情况预测：3900点</strong></p>\n<p>在这种情况下，市场远期（2024年6月）每股收益为236美元，市盈率为16.5倍。由于收益、经济、政策和地缘政治的不确定性仍然很高，股票风险溢价（约325个基点）上升。鉴于市场短期内可能超过预测的基本情况，下跌的风险增加。</p>\n<p>在收益方面，随着成本压力继续加大，盈利增长放缓。到2024年，盈利预测远低于普遍预期。具体来看，2022年增长率8%（普遍为10%），2023年增长5%（普遍为10%），2024年增长0%（普遍为9%）。</p>\n<p>简言之，随着需求放缓和成本压力侵蚀利润率，新冠疫情后的超额收益减少。</p>\n<p>一句话总结：“火”和“冰”两种情景并存，因为美联储在经济增长放缓的环境下继续收紧政策。预计收益增长将放缓，市盈率降低，波动性加剧，未来12个月的市盈率和目标区间可能会在出现下行。</p>\n<p><strong>2、牛市情景预测：4450点</strong></p>\n<p>在牛市的情况下，预测市场（2024年6月）每股收益为249美元，市盈率为17.9倍。美联储在牛市中实现了软着陆。美联储的鹰派路线对美国经济增长没有风险，随着通胀消退，消费者信心反弹，供应链有序恢复，成本压力随着通胀走低而缓解，企业保持定价有时，积累的过剩库存被家庭需求吸收。</p>\n<p>这种情况还可能涉及疫情变化以及欧洲地缘政治形势好转。在这种背景下，市盈率扩大到17.9倍，股票风险溢价保持在低点（约280个基点）附近。在收益方面，增长不大，但到2024年仍为正值，利润压力减小。</p>\n<p>一句话总结：收入增长放缓，但仍然是积极的，随着通货膨胀得到遏制，消费者信心反弹，消费品过剩库存被消耗，成本压力减轻，实现软着陆，市盈率有进一步扩大的空间。</p>\n<p><strong>3、熊市情景预测：3350点</strong></p>\n<p>在熊市中，预测远期（2024年6月）每股收益为212美元，市盈率为15.9倍。这种情况下出现经济衰退。Wilson预计收入增长在2022年减速，然后在2023年转负（-10%）。2024年每股收益增长率在走出衰退后开始反弹，全年增长17%。</p>\n<p>在这种情况下，2022年和2023年的利润率压缩更为严重，到2023年，销售增长出现收缩，通胀保持正增长。</p>\n<p>一句话总结：劳动力成本上升导致的利润压力持续存在，销售增长大幅减速，这种情况使得2023年的每股收益增长转负。与此同时，尽管经济增长放缓，金融环境趋紧，但更为顽固的通胀仍让美联储走在鹰派道路上。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n华尔街最大空头：悲观预期下，标普可能跌到3350点\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-05-12 16:43 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3659186><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>近日，美股接连暴跌，三大股指均创下一年多来新低。\n暴跌之后，市场出现不同声音。高盛策略师Peter Oppenheimer认为投资者已经消化了很多负面情绪，暗示暴跌后创造买入机会。而摩根士丹利长期看空美股的首席股票策略师Michael Wilson则在最新的报告中重申，股市大跌尚未结束，随着经济增长放缓的担忧加剧，认为美股仍有进一步回调空间。\nWilson警告称，美股尚未给当前放缓的经济增长定价。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3659186\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3659186","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2234846944","content_text":"近日，美股接连暴跌，三大股指均创下一年多来新低。\n暴跌之后，市场出现不同声音。高盛策略师Peter Oppenheimer认为投资者已经消化了很多负面情绪，暗示暴跌后创造买入机会。而摩根士丹利长期看空美股的首席股票策略师Michael Wilson则在最新的报告中重申，股市大跌尚未结束，随着经济增长放缓的担忧加剧，认为美股仍有进一步回调空间。\nWilson警告称，美股尚未给当前放缓的经济增长定价。根据Wilson的公允价值框架，标普500指数当前定价仍是错误的，他利用PMI与股票风险溢价随时间变化的关系，预测出当前水平下远期市盈率是16倍，标普指数的价格区间为3700-3800点。\n\n但这只是温和情况预测，Wilson认为“冰”的情景已经来临，并会持续更久。在悲观预期下，明年第二季度标普指数可能跌到3350点。\n“冰”的情景已经来临，并会持续更久\n先来回顾一下“冰与火”的基本情景设定，去年，Wilson在报告中指出，市场正处于“冰”与“火”的对弈之中，“火”即经济复苏过热，通胀居高不下，美联储开启紧缩政策；“冰”指消费者信心急剧下降，经济陷入衰退。\n快进到现在，这些情景正在发生，通胀达到40年来最高水平，美联储比预期更早地转向强硬的货币政策，消费者信心出现下降的迹象，“冰”的情景来临。\n从增长率的角度来看，公司盈利增长率超过前一个周期的峰值后，现在开始减速。积极经营杠杆带来的早中期收益已经过去，美国企业现在将面临着销售增长减速和成本上升的局面，利润率压缩和增长放缓将导致盈利增长放缓。再加上采购经理人指数（PMI）的减速，Wilson预计明年的收益增长将出现下滑。\n\n同时，Wilson预计未来12个月股市波动率将保持较高水平。盈利增长放缓和波动率上升让他坚信，“冰”的情景已经到来，而且持续的时间比预计的更久。\n为什么Wilson的“冰”情景能在一个更热更短的周期内持续下去？原因有四点：\n\n俄乌冲突加剧了通胀压力，尤其是在能源和食品方面，这些成本压力将继续影响本已低迷的消费者情绪。\n劳动力和投入成本压力仍然存在，并对企业利润率构成风险。\n紧缩的货币政策正在产生经济影响，尤其是在住房市场，抵押贷款成本不断上升，家庭的负担能力正在恶化。\n消费品库存存在过剩的迹象，这意味着公司定价能力会受影响，并可能会持续几个季度。\n\n美股的三种预期情景\n最后，Wilson给出到美股三种不同的预期情景。\n1、温和情况预测：3900点\n在这种情况下，市场远期（2024年6月）每股收益为236美元，市盈率为16.5倍。由于收益、经济、政策和地缘政治的不确定性仍然很高，股票风险溢价（约325个基点）上升。鉴于市场短期内可能超过预测的基本情况，下跌的风险增加。\n在收益方面，随着成本压力继续加大，盈利增长放缓。到2024年，盈利预测远低于普遍预期。具体来看，2022年增长率8%（普遍为10%），2023年增长5%（普遍为10%），2024年增长0%（普遍为9%）。\n简言之，随着需求放缓和成本压力侵蚀利润率，新冠疫情后的超额收益减少。\n一句话总结：“火”和“冰”两种情景并存，因为美联储在经济增长放缓的环境下继续收紧政策。预计收益增长将放缓，市盈率降低，波动性加剧，未来12个月的市盈率和目标区间可能会在出现下行。\n2、牛市情景预测：4450点\n在牛市的情况下，预测市场（2024年6月）每股收益为249美元，市盈率为17.9倍。美联储在牛市中实现了软着陆。美联储的鹰派路线对美国经济增长没有风险，随着通胀消退，消费者信心反弹，供应链有序恢复，成本压力随着通胀走低而缓解，企业保持定价有时，积累的过剩库存被家庭需求吸收。\n这种情况还可能涉及疫情变化以及欧洲地缘政治形势好转。在这种背景下，市盈率扩大到17.9倍，股票风险溢价保持在低点（约280个基点）附近。在收益方面，增长不大，但到2024年仍为正值，利润压力减小。\n一句话总结：收入增长放缓，但仍然是积极的，随着通货膨胀得到遏制，消费者信心反弹，消费品过剩库存被消耗，成本压力减轻，实现软着陆，市盈率有进一步扩大的空间。\n3、熊市情景预测：3350点\n在熊市中，预测远期（2024年6月）每股收益为212美元，市盈率为15.9倍。这种情况下出现经济衰退。Wilson预计收入增长在2022年减速，然后在2023年转负（-10%）。2024年每股收益增长率在走出衰退后开始反弹，全年增长17%。\n在这种情况下，2022年和2023年的利润率压缩更为严重，到2023年，销售增长出现收缩，通胀保持正增长。\n一句话总结：劳动力成本上升导致的利润压力持续存在，销售增长大幅减速，这种情况使得2023年的每股收益增长转负。与此同时，尽管经济增长放缓，金融环境趋紧，但更为顽固的通胀仍让美联储走在鹰派道路上。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1168,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":346022914,"gmtCreate":1617976014938,"gmtModify":1617976014938,"author":{"id":"3521456159127007","authorId":"3521456159127007","name":"F1D189","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbc1a90d5d379acef761df781be13344","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3521456159127007","authorIdStr":"3521456159127007"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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