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- 沧海一粟涛涛沧海一粟涛涛
  ·08-01
  我平仓了48.0股$特斯拉(TSLA)$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单！@小虎看单
  615 1
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- 沧海一粟涛涛沧海一粟涛涛
  ·07-31
  我开仓了5手$TSLA 20250801 315.0 CALL$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单！
  26 评论
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- 沧海一粟涛涛沧海一粟涛涛
  ·07-31
  我平仓了3900.0股$快手-W(01024)$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单！@小虎看单
  324 1
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- 沧海一粟涛涛沧海一粟涛涛
  ·07-28
  我开仓了10手$TSLA 20250801 327.5 CALL$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单！
  55 评论
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- 沧海一粟涛涛沧海一粟涛涛
  ·07-25
  汇丰垃圾
  特斯拉还要跌60%？汇丰：撑起高估值的Robotaxi有三大“硬伤”
  汇丰认为，特斯拉的Robotaxi业务面临技术验证、消费者习惯改变和盈利能力证明三大根本挑战。叠加汽车业务业绩下滑和人形机器人进展缓慢，汇丰大幅下调特斯拉业绩预期，维持“减持”评级，目标价为120美元，较目前股价有超过60%的下跌空间。
  特斯拉还要跌60%？汇丰：撑起高估值的Robotaxi有三大“硬伤”
  109 评论
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- 沧海一粟涛涛沧海一粟涛涛
  ·07-24
  我开仓了20.0股$特斯拉(TSLA)$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单！
  49 评论
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- 沧海一粟涛涛沧海一粟涛涛
  ·07-24
  我平仓了3000.0股$快手-W(01024)$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单！
  450 评论
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- 沧海一粟涛涛沧海一粟涛涛
  ·07-19
  我开仓了1手$TSLA 20250725 335.0 PUT$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单！
  297 评论
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- 沧海一粟涛涛沧海一粟涛涛
  ·07-14
  我开仓了3手$TSLA 20250718 315.0 CALL$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单！
  197 评论
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- 沧海一粟涛涛沧海一粟涛涛
  ·07-10
  我开仓了3手$TSLA 20250711 295.0 CALL$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单！
  338 评论
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/10000000000010588\">@小虎看单</a>","text":"我平仓了3900.0股$快手-W(01024)$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单！@小虎看单","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/462603621584984","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":324,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":461615138996520,"gmtCreate":1753717642377,"gmtModify":1754132559454,"author":{"id":"3523587098717559","authorId":"3523587098717559","name":"沧海一粟涛涛","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fa748518a2483ea79bacfdb91ea26ef","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3523587098717559","authorIdStr":"3523587098717559"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了10手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20250801 327.5 CALL\">$TSLA 20250801 327.5 CALL$&nbsp;</a>,来看看我最新分享的订单！","listText":"我开仓了10手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20250801 327.5 CALL\">$TSLA 20250801 327.5 CALL$&nbsp;</a>,来看看我最新分享的订单！","text":"我开仓了10手$TSLA 20250801 327.5 CALL$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/461615138996520","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":55,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":460489866018848,"gmtCreate":1753433869347,"gmtModify":1753434524720,"author":{"id":"3523587098717559","authorId":"3523587098717559","name":"沧海一粟涛涛","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fa748518a2483ea79bacfdb91ea26ef","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3523587098717559","authorIdStr":"3523587098717559"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"汇丰垃圾","listText":"汇丰垃圾","text":"汇丰垃圾","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/460489866018848","repostId":"2554175982","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2554175982","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1753424940,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2554175982?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-07-25 14:29","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉还要跌60%？汇丰：撑起高估值的Robotaxi有三大“硬伤”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2554175982","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"汇丰认为，特斯拉的Robotaxi业务面临技术验证、消费者习惯改变和盈利能力证明三大根本挑战。叠加汽车业务业绩下滑和人形机器人进展缓慢，汇丰大幅下调特斯拉业绩预期，维持“减持”评级，目标价为120美元，较目前股价有超过60%的下跌空间。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>汇丰认为，特斯拉的Robotaxi业务面临技术验证、消费者习惯改变和盈利能力证明三大根本挑战。叠加汽车业务业绩下滑和人形机器人进展缓慢，汇丰大幅下调特斯拉业绩预期，维持“减持”评级，目标价为120美元，较目前股价有超过60%的下跌空间。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特斯拉汽车销售遭遇十年来最大降幅，而其计划明年量产的Robotaxi本被寄予厚望，被视为支撑其高估值的核心力量。然而，Robotaxi至今仍存在三大“硬伤”，这无疑给特斯拉的高估值蒙上了阴影。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据追风交易台，汇丰银行最新研报对特斯拉的Robotaxi业务泼了一盆冷水，认为<strong>特斯拉的Robotaxi业务面临技术验证、消费者习惯改变和盈利能力证明三大根本挑战。</strong>对投资者而言，这意味着特斯拉可能被过度高估，汇丰银行维持了120美元的目标价，较当前305.30美元的股价有超过60%的下跌空间。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce802246a339a87ce1b139c0fb699b5c\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">研报指出，特斯拉连续三个季度未能达到市场预期的EBIT，实际上这是12个季度中第11次业绩不及预期。管理层警告未来几个季度仍将面临挑战，而被市场寄予厚望的Robotaxi业务能否如愿支撑股价，存在重大疑问。</p><h2 id=\"id_2577450297\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Robotaxi三大关键挑战：技术、消费习惯与盈利能力</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告指出，特斯拉Robotaxi业务的规模化成功需满足三个核心前提条件，而每一个条件都面临重大挑战：</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>1. 技术可靠性存疑</strong>：特斯拉需要证明其纯视觉（camera-only）方案在鲁棒性（抗干扰能力）和可靠性上不逊于行业普遍采用的多传感器融合方案。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">而根据汇丰的报告，奥斯汀试点的早期迹象并不乐观。报告指出，奥斯汀的Robotaxi试点已积累了约7,000英里的行驶里程，仅涉及少量车辆。如果按照平均每次行程4英里计算（与Waymo相同），这相当于每辆车每天仅完成11次行程，不到Waymo车辆的一半。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>2. 消费者行为转变困难</strong>：Robotaxi若要从公共交通的替代品发展为普及应用，需要消费者放弃私家车所有权观念，这被汇丰报告形容为“一个巨大的挑战”。报告强调，这“不是一个小要求”，涉及到根深蒂固的消费者习惯变革。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>3. 盈利能力证明缺失</strong>：特斯拉需要证明其Robotaxi业务能够盈利，而这似乎在公司内部也存在争议。汇丰报告指出，作为参照，Waymo在2024年进行了约60亿美元的股权融资，这表明其距离盈利尚有距离。</p><h2 id=\"id_759946975\" style=\"text-align: left;\">汽车业务业绩下滑，自动驾驶和人形机器人进展缓慢</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">报告还指出，特斯拉汽车业务面临多重结构性挑战：产品线老化、市场竞争加剧、品牌形象受损，以及连续多季度业绩未达市场预期。关税和美国电动汽车激励措施的结束将进一步影响需求。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管马斯克多次表示自动驾驶和人形机器人最终将使特斯拉成为世界上最有价值的公司。但其实际进展有限：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Robotaxi进展缓慢</strong>：奥斯汀试点项目成果有限。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Optimus人形机器人重新设计</strong>：马斯克表示Optimus设计正在从2.5版本升级到3.0（完全新设计），预计5年内月产能可达10万台——虽然增长迅速，但远低于此前暗示的数十亿台规模。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">汇丰表示，交付的时间和规模是他们的首要担忧。</p><h2 id=\"id_1587848148\">特斯拉业绩承压，汇丰维持“减持”评级</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">汇丰对特斯拉2025-2027年的营收预期下调1-3%，毛利润预期下调3-7%，营业收入预期大幅下调16-27%。分析师指出，特斯拉的自动化汽车面临结构性问题——产品组合老化、竞争加剧以及品牌问题继续拖累销量。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得注意的是，汇丰将2025年和2026年的运营利润预测分别下调了27%和23%，目前预测水平比一年前低约66%。该行对特斯拉短期盈利能力的看法日益悲观。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7f403f2302c47d14683b91c04cc7bb4\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"341\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57463ed8d25539dc522df54b4185408f\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"631\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">基于以上因素，汇丰维持特斯拉“减持”评级，目标价不变，为120美元，该估值基于DCF和同行业倍数估值两种方法的50:50加权。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉还要跌60%？汇丰：撑起高估值的Robotaxi有三大“硬伤”</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉还要跌60%？汇丰：撑起高估值的Robotaxi有三大“硬伤”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-07-25 14:29 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3751869><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>汇丰认为，特斯拉的Robotaxi业务面临技术验证、消费者习惯改变和盈利能力证明三大根本挑战。叠加汽车业务业绩下滑和人形机器人进展缓慢，汇丰大幅下调特斯拉业绩预期，维持“减持”评级，目标价为120美元，较目前股价有超过60%的下跌空间。特斯拉汽车销售遭遇十年来最大降幅，而其计划明年量产的Robotaxi本被寄予厚望，被视为支撑其高估值的核心力量。然而，Robotaxi至今仍存在三大“硬伤”，这无疑...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3751869\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e49ab90f6352b6ebbb45091ad18b5a2e","relate_stocks":{"LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","BK4581":"高盛持仓","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU2756315664.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMI\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","TSLL":"Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","IE00BK4W5M84.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (HKD) ACC","BK4555":"新能源车","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1267930227.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"AS\" (SGD) ACC A","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","HSBC":"汇丰","BK4516":"特朗普概念","LU0128525689.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"A\"(USD) ACC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4521":"英国银行股","LU2250418816.HKD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0820562030.AUD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMH2\" (AUDHDG) H2 INC","LU2750360641.GBP":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (GBPHDG) INC","BK4612":"AI芯片","LU0345769631.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1778281490.HKD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU2108987350.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV GLOBAL OPPORTUNITY SUSTAINABLE (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","LU0052756011.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"A\" (USD) INC","SG9999015945.SGD":"LionGlobal Disruptive Innovation Fund A SGD","LU2213496289.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","TSYW.SI":"TESLA 3xLongSG261006","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU1145028129.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AQ\" (USD) INC","LU2756315318.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (SGDHDG) INC A","LU2236285917.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMG\" (USD) INC","BK4207":"综合性银行","BK4598":"佩洛西持仓","LU2023250330.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (USD) INC","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3751869","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2554175982","content_text":"汇丰认为，特斯拉的Robotaxi业务面临技术验证、消费者习惯改变和盈利能力证明三大根本挑战。叠加汽车业务业绩下滑和人形机器人进展缓慢，汇丰大幅下调特斯拉业绩预期，维持“减持”评级，目标价为120美元，较目前股价有超过60%的下跌空间。特斯拉汽车销售遭遇十年来最大降幅，而其计划明年量产的Robotaxi本被寄予厚望，被视为支撑其高估值的核心力量。然而，Robotaxi至今仍存在三大“硬伤”，这无疑给特斯拉的高估值蒙上了阴影。据追风交易台，汇丰银行最新研报对特斯拉的Robotaxi业务泼了一盆冷水，认为特斯拉的Robotaxi业务面临技术验证、消费者习惯改变和盈利能力证明三大根本挑战。对投资者而言，这意味着特斯拉可能被过度高估，汇丰银行维持了120美元的目标价，较当前305.30美元的股价有超过60%的下跌空间。研报指出，特斯拉连续三个季度未能达到市场预期的EBIT，实际上这是12个季度中第11次业绩不及预期。管理层警告未来几个季度仍将面临挑战，而被市场寄予厚望的Robotaxi业务能否如愿支撑股价，存在重大疑问。Robotaxi三大关键挑战：技术、消费习惯与盈利能力报告指出，特斯拉Robotaxi业务的规模化成功需满足三个核心前提条件，而每一个条件都面临重大挑战：1. 技术可靠性存疑：特斯拉需要证明其纯视觉（camera-only）方案在鲁棒性（抗干扰能力）和可靠性上不逊于行业普遍采用的多传感器融合方案。而根据汇丰的报告，奥斯汀试点的早期迹象并不乐观。报告指出，奥斯汀的Robotaxi试点已积累了约7,000英里的行驶里程，仅涉及少量车辆。如果按照平均每次行程4英里计算（与Waymo相同），这相当于每辆车每天仅完成11次行程，不到Waymo车辆的一半。2. 消费者行为转变困难：Robotaxi若要从公共交通的替代品发展为普及应用，需要消费者放弃私家车所有权观念，这被汇丰报告形容为“一个巨大的挑战”。报告强调，这“不是一个小要求”，涉及到根深蒂固的消费者习惯变革。3. 盈利能力证明缺失：特斯拉需要证明其Robotaxi业务能够盈利，而这似乎在公司内部也存在争议。汇丰报告指出，作为参照，Waymo在2024年进行了约60亿美元的股权融资，这表明其距离盈利尚有距离。汽车业务业绩下滑，自动驾驶和人形机器人进展缓慢报告还指出，特斯拉汽车业务面临多重结构性挑战：产品线老化、市场竞争加剧、品牌形象受损，以及连续多季度业绩未达市场预期。关税和美国电动汽车激励措施的结束将进一步影响需求。尽管马斯克多次表示自动驾驶和人形机器人最终将使特斯拉成为世界上最有价值的公司。但其实际进展有限：Robotaxi进展缓慢：奥斯汀试点项目成果有限。Optimus人形机器人重新设计：马斯克表示Optimus设计正在从2.5版本升级到3.0（完全新设计），预计5年内月产能可达10万台——虽然增长迅速，但远低于此前暗示的数十亿台规模。汇丰表示，交付的时间和规模是他们的首要担忧。特斯拉业绩承压，汇丰维持“减持”评级汇丰对特斯拉2025-2027年的营收预期下调1-3%，毛利润预期下调3-7%，营业收入预期大幅下调16-27%。分析师指出，特斯拉的自动化汽车面临结构性问题——产品组合老化、竞争加剧以及品牌问题继续拖累销量。值得注意的是，汇丰将2025年和2026年的运营利润预测分别下调了27%和23%，目前预测水平比一年前低约66%。该行对特斯拉短期盈利能力的看法日益悲观。基于以上因素，汇丰维持特斯拉“减持”评级，目标价不变，为120美元，该估值基于DCF和同行业倍数估值两种方法的50:50加权。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSBC":1,"TSLA":1,"TSLL":1,"TSYW.SI":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":109,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":460130608681856,"gmtCreate":1753346005826,"gmtModify":1754580468607,"author":{"id":"3523587098717559","authorId":"3523587098717559","name":"沧海一粟涛涛","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fa748518a2483ea79bacfdb91ea26ef","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3523587098717559","authorIdStr":"3523587098717559"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了20.0股<a 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