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DueCOURSE

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- DueCOURSEDueCOURSE
  ·2024-09-27
  $蔚来(NIO)$ 今天怎么回事突然雄起了
  1,492 评论
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- DueCOURSEDueCOURSE
  ·2021-07-01
  $蔚来(NIO)$出销量是不是该跌了
  5,589 4
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- DueCOURSEDueCOURSE
  ·2021-04-30
  $蔚来(NIO)$这是不是第一次发布财报后股票涨的？
  4,646 1
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- DueCOURSEDueCOURSE
  ·2021-03-03
  $蔚来(NIO)$今天真的是破防了
  2,582 评论
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- DueCOURSEDueCOURSE
  ·2021-01-22
  自己看图
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  2,887 评论
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- DueCOURSEDueCOURSE
  ·2021-01-11
  $蔚来(NIO)$大和证券预测目标价:100
  4,740 2
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- DueCOURSEDueCOURSE
  ·2021-01-11
  $蔚来(NIO)$我一直都搞不懂，空单爆仓的话，它的钱都被谁赚走了？
  8,619 8
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- DueCOURSEDueCOURSE
  ·2021-01-10
  嘴巴一张一闭:真实毛利率是负的。你这叫诽谤你懂吗
  蔚来ET7横空出世，投资者可能不会买账
  1月9日，蔚来发布ET7，把价格区间伸向了50万元。从市场接受程度看，蔚来ET7的年销量，将十分有限。现在这个时间点，是蔚来关键转折点，还不是炫技的时候，推出这款主打豪华和性能的ET7，星空君表示一脸懵逼。表面上看，2020年的蔚来无限风光，股价成为第五大车企不说，还融到了很多钱，三季报显示账面现金接近200亿。但是，投资者对蔚来的预期，肯定不是一款不大可能卖得动的豪华车。
  蔚来ET7横空出世，投资者可能不会买账
  4,115 评论
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- DueCOURSEDueCOURSE
  ·2021-01-10
  $蔚来(NIO)$蔚来之前吹的牛都实现了，我相信现在吹的牛也一定会实现。自动驾驶如果能靠激光雷达和超强算力超越特斯拉的表现的话，那就轮到特斯拉头痛了。股价也更有想象力。周一看涨。
  5,195 3
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- DueCOURSEDueCOURSE
  ·2021-01-09
  $蔚来(NIO)$牛逼就完了定就完了
  2,499 评论
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>我一直都搞不懂，空单爆仓的话，它的钱都被谁赚走了？","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$我一直都搞不懂，空单爆仓的话，它的钱都被谁赚走了？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/332189619","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":8619,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3489367995295358","authorId":"3489367995295358","name":"UVXY","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2647926eb737e421538fd959fca7c59a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3489367995295358","idStr":"3489367995295358"},"content":"被做多的人赚走了，空头平仓需要在市场上买股票，不就是从高位卖出的多头手上买来的吗","text":"被做多的人赚走了，空头平仓需要在市场上买股票，不就是从高位卖出的多头手上买来的吗","html":"被做多的人赚走了，空头平仓需要在市场上买股票，不就是从高位卖出的多头手上买来的吗"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":332953960,"gmtCreate":1610293629650,"gmtModify":1703743451793,"author":{"id":"3532428636921784","authorId":"3532428636921784","name":"DueCOURSE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5809a6d6bacea237a511f2e7276f636","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532428636921784","idStr":"3532428636921784"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"嘴巴一张一闭:真实毛利率是负的。你这叫诽谤你懂吗","listText":"嘴巴一张一闭:真实毛利率是负的。你这叫诽谤你懂吗","text":"嘴巴一张一闭:真实毛利率是负的。你这叫诽谤你懂吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/332953960","repostId":"2102965860","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2102965860","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1610278731,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2102965860?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-01-10 19:38","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"蔚来ET7横空出世，投资者可能不会买账","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2102965860","media":"腾讯新闻","summary":"1月9日，蔚来发布ET7，把价格区间伸向了50万元。从市场接受程度看，蔚来ET7的年销量，将十分有限。现在这个时间点，是蔚来关键转折点，还不是炫技的时候，推出这款主打豪华和性能的ET7，星空君表示一脸懵逼。表面上看，2020年的蔚来无限风光，股价成为第五大车企不说，还融到了很多钱，三季报显示账面现金接近200亿。但是，投资者对蔚来的预期，肯定不是一款不大可能卖得动的豪华车。","content":"<html><body><article><p>2021年开年，引爆热点的，竟然是两辆电动车。</p><p>1月1日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>官宣国产Model Y正式上市，长续航版定价34.99万元；随后美版单电机标准版发布价格，大约折合人民币27万元，按照特斯拉定价的习惯，国产版29.99万补贴后27万毫无压力。</p><p>1月9日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>发布ET7，把价格区间伸向了50万元。</p><p>看到这个价格，星空君倒吸一口凉气。和电动车相比，这是“攀比”Model X和Model S的节奏，但是，特斯拉的这两款车定位根本就不是走量的。</p><p>特斯拉宣布，2020年，Model S与Model X全年总共生产了54,805辆。注意，这是全球市场。</p><p>从市场接受程度看，蔚来ET7的年销量，将十分有限。</p><p>现在这个时间点，是蔚来关键转折点，还不是炫技的时候，推出这款主打<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLX\">豪华</a>和性能的ET7，星空君表示一脸懵逼。</p><p>有人说，蔚来现在背后有大资本支撑，不愁钱。其实你不知道做电动车多么烧钱，几百亿就一瞬间的事，如果做不到正<span>毛利</span>，做不到经营性现金流量净额为正，很快就烧光了。</p><p>以蔚来2019年<span>现金流量表</span>为例，公司经营性现金流量净额为-87亿，再加上<span>固定资产</span>投资，一年光纯烧现金超过100亿。</p><p>蔚来亟需的不是这种样子货，而是主打走量的平民车型。</p><p>下面讲几个故事，来说一下对于资本运作型企业，经营性现金流的重要性。</p><p>一、乐视网的大饼</p><p>五年前，星空君见过一款乐视手机，做工精致，性能强劲，甚至那个时候就是用了Type-C口，价格十分低廉。同期推出的乐视电视也是主打性价比，在小米电视出现之前，在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>电视领域非常受欢迎。</p><p>但是，当时乐视财报上的问题却比较严重，最核心的有两点，一是毛利是负的，二是经营性现金流量净额是负的。</p><p>刘姝威质疑乐视网的所谓生态圈，主要也是基于这两点。</p><p>无论你做什么业务，卖出去货的钱必然要高于买原材料的钱，这是经营性现金流量净额为正的基本逻辑，是最基本的商业逻辑，和你是科技公司、互联网公司、天顶星公司没有关系。</p><p>如果你仔细看看蔚来的玩法，会发现无非就是放大了的乐视电视。产品不赚钱，再多的投资也会烧的灰飞烟灭。会有人说，蔚来的毛利是正的，后面我再分析，蔚来的正毛利水分很大。</p><p>二、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>连亏十五年的背后</p><p>京东一直到2019年才开始全面盈利，在此之前连亏15年。</p><p>背后投资的资本也算有耐心，它们为什么能坚持到底？</p><p>因为京东从一开始毛利就是正的，这是刘强东的底线。并且公司绝大多数年份的经营性现金流量净额都是正的，这就意味着公司亏损的主要来源不是日常经营，而是固定资产投资、并购比较多。</p><p>后来大家也都清楚了，京东在物流方面烧了很多钱。</p><p>因为京东经营是赚钱的，在固定资产投资方面烧的钱迟早能赚回来，投资者也就有足够的耐心等待。</p><p>三、再说特斯拉</p><p>特斯拉是资本市场上的一个奇迹，所有做空特斯拉的都亏得一塌糊涂。</p><p>十年前特斯拉的毛利率就做到了30%，如今毛利率在20%左右。有好事者计算过Model Y的毛利率可能超过30%。</p><p>2017年开始，公司的经营性现金流量净额开始转正。</p><p>从财报数据看，特斯拉和京东是很像的，公司的产品本身是赚钱的，亏损的原因主要是固定资产投资、研发投入。</p><p>所以当2018年产能跟上后，公司一鼓作气，到2020年正式盈利。</p><p>四、回到蔚来</p><p>很多人提醒，蔚来的毛利转正了。</p><p>星空君表示，3.83%的毛利压根不能算转正，一方面是太低了，另一方面，这里面包含财技操作的结果。结合经营性现金流量净额看，公司的“真实”毛利依然是负的。</p><p>比如，蔚来推出的租电池政策。本质上是个金融分期方案，并通过该方案，将本应该计入成本的电池，搞成了资本化。</p><p>如何理解？</p><p>实际操作的时候，是以电池做抵押78个月10万元无息贷款，每月还1280元。</p><p>表面上看，2020年的蔚来无限风光，股价成为第五大车企不说，还融到了很多钱，三季报显示账面现金接近200亿。</p><p>但是，投资者对蔚来的预期，肯定不是一款不大可能卖得动的豪华车。</p><p>征服投资者的唯一途径，就是毛利转正的基础上，经营性现金流量净额转正。否则，资本的耐心是有限的。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>蔚来ET7横空出世，投资者可能不会买账</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n蔚来ET7横空出世，投资者可能不会买账\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-01-10 19:38 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202101101949047a44e449&s=b><strong>腾讯新闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2021年开年，引爆热点的，竟然是两辆电动车。1月1日，特斯拉官宣国产Model Y正式上市，长续航版定价34.99万元；随后美版单电机标准版发布价格，大约折合人民币27万元，按照特斯拉定价的习惯，国产版29.99万补贴后27万毫无压力。1月9日，蔚来发布ET7，把价格区间伸向了50万元。看到这个价格，星空君倒吸一口凉气。和电动车相比，这是“攀比”Model X和Model S的节奏，但是，特斯拉...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202101101949047a44e449&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3380231cb191ca9bea37a0c70765537d","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202101101949047a44e449&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2102965860","content_text":"2021年开年，引爆热点的，竟然是两辆电动车。1月1日，特斯拉官宣国产Model Y正式上市，长续航版定价34.99万元；随后美版单电机标准版发布价格，大约折合人民币27万元，按照特斯拉定价的习惯，国产版29.99万补贴后27万毫无压力。1月9日，蔚来发布ET7，把价格区间伸向了50万元。看到这个价格，星空君倒吸一口凉气。和电动车相比，这是“攀比”Model X和Model S的节奏，但是，特斯拉的这两款车定位根本就不是走量的。特斯拉宣布，2020年，Model S与Model X全年总共生产了54,805辆。注意，这是全球市场。从市场接受程度看，蔚来ET7的年销量，将十分有限。现在这个时间点，是蔚来关键转折点，还不是炫技的时候，推出这款主打豪华和性能的ET7，星空君表示一脸懵逼。有人说，蔚来现在背后有大资本支撑，不愁钱。其实你不知道做电动车多么烧钱，几百亿就一瞬间的事，如果做不到正毛利，做不到经营性现金流量净额为正，很快就烧光了。以蔚来2019年现金流量表为例，公司经营性现金流量净额为-87亿，再加上固定资产投资，一年光纯烧现金超过100亿。蔚来亟需的不是这种样子货，而是主打走量的平民车型。下面讲几个故事，来说一下对于资本运作型企业，经营性现金流的重要性。一、乐视网的大饼五年前，星空君见过一款乐视手机，做工精致，性能强劲，甚至那个时候就是用了Type-C口，价格十分低廉。同期推出的乐视电视也是主打性价比，在小米电视出现之前，在智能电视领域非常受欢迎。但是，当时乐视财报上的问题却比较严重，最核心的有两点，一是毛利是负的，二是经营性现金流量净额是负的。刘姝威质疑乐视网的所谓生态圈，主要也是基于这两点。无论你做什么业务，卖出去货的钱必然要高于买原材料的钱，这是经营性现金流量净额为正的基本逻辑，是最基本的商业逻辑，和你是科技公司、互联网公司、天顶星公司没有关系。如果你仔细看看蔚来的玩法，会发现无非就是放大了的乐视电视。产品不赚钱，再多的投资也会烧的灰飞烟灭。会有人说，蔚来的毛利是正的，后面我再分析，蔚来的正毛利水分很大。二、京东连亏十五年的背后京东一直到2019年才开始全面盈利，在此之前连亏15年。背后投资的资本也算有耐心，它们为什么能坚持到底？因为京东从一开始毛利就是正的，这是刘强东的底线。并且公司绝大多数年份的经营性现金流量净额都是正的，这就意味着公司亏损的主要来源不是日常经营，而是固定资产投资、并购比较多。后来大家也都清楚了，京东在物流方面烧了很多钱。因为京东经营是赚钱的，在固定资产投资方面烧的钱迟早能赚回来，投资者也就有足够的耐心等待。三、再说特斯拉特斯拉是资本市场上的一个奇迹，所有做空特斯拉的都亏得一塌糊涂。十年前特斯拉的毛利率就做到了30%，如今毛利率在20%左右。有好事者计算过Model Y的毛利率可能超过30%。2017年开始，公司的经营性现金流量净额开始转正。从财报数据看，特斯拉和京东是很像的，公司的产品本身是赚钱的，亏损的原因主要是固定资产投资、研发投入。所以当2018年产能跟上后，公司一鼓作气，到2020年正式盈利。四、回到蔚来很多人提醒，蔚来的毛利转正了。星空君表示，3.83%的毛利压根不能算转正，一方面是太低了，另一方面，这里面包含财技操作的结果。结合经营性现金流量净额看，公司的“真实”毛利依然是负的。比如，蔚来推出的租电池政策。本质上是个金融分期方案，并通过该方案，将本应该计入成本的电池，搞成了资本化。如何理解？实际操作的时候，是以电池做抵押78个月10万元无息贷款，每月还1280元。表面上看，2020年的蔚来无限风光，股价成为第五大车企不说，还融到了很多钱，三季报显示账面现金接近200亿。但是，投资者对蔚来的预期，肯定不是一款不大可能卖得动的豪华车。征服投资者的唯一途径，就是毛利转正的基础上，经营性现金流量净额转正。否则，资本的耐心是有限的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4115,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":332078522,"gmtCreate":1610247236666,"gmtModify":1703743340623,"author":{"id":"3532428636921784","authorId":"3532428636921784","name":"DueCOURSE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5809a6d6bacea237a511f2e7276f636","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532428636921784","idStr":"3532428636921784"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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