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且听风吟云起
且听风吟云起
·
2021-06-30
达里奥的6个股市系统性泡沫指标，将泡沫定义为不可持续的价格
达里奥最新演讲：股市眼下并不一定处于泡沫中
全球最大对冲基金桥水创始人达里奥6月24日连发两篇推文，介绍自己衡量泡沫的六项指标，并发布了一个10分钟的视频阐述自己对当下股市泡沫的看法。 在这个应罗宾汉基金会要求解释股票泡沫的视频中，达里奥表示，
达里奥最新演讲：股市眼下并不一定处于泡沫中
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且听风吟云起
且听风吟云起
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2021-06-30
MMT科普
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且听风吟云起
且听风吟云起
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2021-06-29
关注瓶颈效应，可关注零售商库销比，生产商库销比，批发商库销比的对比
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且听风吟云起
且听风吟云起
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2021-06-28
可见机锋
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且听风吟云起
且听风吟云起
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2021-06-10
冲浪和滑雪都是需要非常集中注意力的
高瓴资本张磊：人生经历四次转折，最佩服两个人
01 人生四次转折 成为投资人我经历了四个转折点。 第一，小学考初中，差点没考上。因为我当时学习成绩比较差，小学考初中的最低录取分是140分，我考了141分，刚好多1分。我大概从高中二年级才开始努力；
高瓴资本张磊：人生经历四次转折，最佩服两个人
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且听风吟云起
且听风吟云起
·
2021-05-28
$新氧(SY)$
医美行业
“颜值经济”迎风口，千亿医美市场的投资机会
“颜值经济”迎风口，千亿医美市场的投资机会
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且听风吟云起
且听风吟云起
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2021-03-10
About what would be really bad about innovation-based strategies
Cathie Wood’s Top 10 Stock Picks
In this article we discuss Cathie Wood's top 10 stock picks. You can skip our detailed analysis of C
Cathie Wood’s Top 10 Stock Picks
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且听风吟云起
且听风吟云起
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2021-03-02
FCF现金流折现法
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且听风吟云起
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2021-02-23
高屋建瓴的见解，如火花闪过灵感
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且听风吟云起
且听风吟云起
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2021-02-20
在牛市中，市场的反应功能(价格对新闻和事件的反应方式)完全不同。熊市不会考虑经济影响。约翰邓普顿说：“牛市生于极度悲观，成长于怀疑论，死于狂热。”由经济复苏带动的牛市通常不会很快结束。
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19:25","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"达里奥最新演讲：股市眼下并不一定处于泡沫中","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186578125","media":"人民币交易与研究","summary":"全球最大对冲基金桥水创始人达里奥6月24日连发两篇推文，介绍自己衡量泡沫的六项指标，并发布了一个10分钟的视频阐述自己对当下股市泡沫的看法。\n在这个应罗宾汉基金会要求解释股票泡沫的视频中，达里奥表示，","content":"<p>全球最大对冲基金桥水创始人达里奥6月24日连发两篇推文，介绍自己衡量泡沫的六项指标，并发布了一个10分钟的视频阐述自己对当下股市泡沫的看法。</p>\n<p>在这个应罗宾汉基金会要求解释股票泡沫的视频中，达里奥表示，虽然指标显示一些股票目前“存在泡沫”，但股市眼下不一定处于泡沫中。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed46d81d71867f2d1eb8b3b9ad012779\" tg-width=\"532\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>达里奥在推文中写道，“我所说的泡沫是指不可持续的高价，我用六项指标来衡量它”，并指出投资者需关注买家杠杆水平和新买家数量等迹象。</p>\n<p>事实上，早在5月中旬时，达里奥就曾在公众号分享了他对股市泡沫的研究，详述了这六种系统性“泡沫指标”，包括价格、看涨情绪、杠杆高低等：</p>\n<p>1． 相对传统的衡量标准，价格有多高？</p>\n<p>2． 价格是否反映了不可持续的状况？</p>\n<p>3． 有多少新买家（即之前不在市场里的人）进入了市场？</p>\n<p>4． 看涨情绪有多普遍？</p>\n<p>5． 交易是否依赖高杠杆的支撑？</p>\n<p>6． 买家是否过度进行远期交易（如建立库存、签订远期协议等）来投机或保护自己免受未来价格上涨的影响？</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b89447f632ae50e578dd9ebcd007795e\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"306\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>以下是这个名为《股市目前是否处于泡沫中？》的视频演讲全文：</p>\n<p>大家好，很高兴能代表所有被罗宾汉（基金会）帮助过的人来到这里。</p>\n<p>你们知道，知道罗宾汉，是因为我认识保罗·都铎·琼斯，当时罗宾汉是他眼里的一抹微光，他会在贝德福德-斯图文森特街区（Bed Stuy）和孩子们一起打篮球，我很幸运能够看到他和罗宾汉基金的所有工作人员，以一种非常个人化和高效的方式来帮助减轻美国的贫困，并且能够成为其中的一员。你们所做的一切都很棒，所以我只想感谢你们所做的一切，并且告诉你们能够来到这里并尽我的微薄之力，我有多么高兴。</p>\n<p>我被要求谈论泡沫，市场、股市是否处于泡沫中，以及什么样的泡沫。我只想给你们一些关于这个问题的想法，我只有大约10分钟的时间。所以我想讲快点，几年前，我开始思考：什么是泡沫？当我们身处泡沫中时，我所说的泡沫是指什么？因为在我50年的投资生涯中，我看到了很多泡沫。</p>\n<p>在我脑海中，有六件事是我基本上认为会导致产生泡沫的，我将他们一一列举出来。现在，看着它们，以便您知道我在说什么。</p>\n<p>首先，您知道，我们的价格相对于传统的价格衡量标准有多高是一个考虑因素。例如，你知道我们的PSI或收益率之类的东西，这是一个考虑因素，但这不是我所说的泡沫。</p>\n<p>比方说，可能出现价格高回报低的现象，而且这种情况可以持续很长时间，但这并不意味着泡沫会破灭，只是其中一个组成因素。</p>\n<p>第二，价格是反映不可持续的条件，这里指的是买方的性质，谁在买入和如何买入，不可持续的条件会产生了价格调整或下跌，然后就出现了第三个投机因素——市场上的新买家被吸引了。</p>\n<p>您知道，这就像鸡尾酒会，有些从不参加的人出现了，也就是投资了某些资产，可能是科技股，也可能是房地产，但无论如何，每个人都想，没有持有这些东西会让他们觉得自己很蠢，诸如此类。</p>\n<p>第五项是大额购买远期“合约”，比如有人买了他们不了解的公寓，因为他们认为公寓会上涨，或者用大规模交易大宗商品的年代来举例。我会观察那些使用大宗商品的人，他们购买了大量远期合约。换句话说，购买库存以保护自己免受价格上涨的影响。</p>\n<p>所以当他们离场的时候——正如我们最近在大宗商品市场看到的——当他们抛售远期合约时，价格持续下跌，他们会说“我也不想要它”。</p>\n<p>而当价格上涨时，他们会说我们要进行溢价保护，对冲价格上涨。所以，延长了这些远期购买的买家是一个（泡沫）指标。</p>\n<p>我用这张表显示整个股市，我把这个框架基本上应用到所有资产上，并且使用一种系统化的方法，试图判断哪些处在泡沫中。在我看来，在各种各样的股票中，有些存在泡沫，有些则没有，而整个股市正如这张图表所显示的。</p>\n<p>这张图表可以追溯到1910年，它是一个彰显泡沫程度的指标。你可以看到当前是有泡沫的，但没有2000年和1929年那么高，不过高于2007年。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4f2ff86c22e19d1a051e96d120c0fa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"347\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>让我们看看存在泡沫的股票，根据这些标准，很多股票没有泡沫。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ebf9f9bfdd5c982106b5c4f97acf635\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"339\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这张图表追溯到1995年，与2000年相比，前1000名的企业市值存在泡沫比例约为5%，整个标普500指数存在泡沫的份额约为2%，虽然不如2000年高，但比2007年高。</p>\n<p>现在来看下一张显示了泡沫股票的图表。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15720e9f5f0240be2ddeda3d14230eaa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>我把这些泡沫股票与标准普尔500指数分离，可以看到泡沫股在大盘中的比例下降，我相信这种情况很可能会持续下去，但目前处于泡沫之中。其中一个问题是，泡沫可以扩张和收缩，时机是个大问题。</p>\n<p>下面这张图表可以追溯到1900年，上图显示的是债务与国内生产总值（GDP）之比，下图中蓝线显示的是利率，红线显示印钞规模，也就是流入的货币量。所以你可以看到当债务累加时，就像现在的情况，并且实施近零利率，这两种情况同时存在时就会大肆印钞。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5d3d3c839ca42009c377a3eed7c9c3c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这是泡沫的一个关键因素，因为有大量的流动性进入市场，然后有很多资金哄抬各种各样的资产价格，所以你可以看到，当蓝线触及零时，红线大幅上行。大量流动性，大量的债务融资和债务货币化形成了一个典型的泡沫。</p>\n<p>其他可能产生泡沫的因素则是新股上市，特别是如果它们没有盈利，或者是在许多情况下没有盈利的前景。</p>\n<p>这些也是泡沫的考虑因素，所以我想说，你不能说当前的股市处于最高程度的泡沫，你必须区分哪些股票正处于泡沫中、或者一直处于泡沫中；哪些股票没有，实际上目前有许多股票并没有处于泡沫中。</p>\n<p>所以我希望这能让你对泡沫有所了解、我如何看待它们以及我们目前处于什么位置。谢谢。</p>","source":"lsy1574157197600","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>达里奥最新演讲：股市眼下并不一定处于泡沫中</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n达里奥最新演讲：股市眼下并不一定处于泡沫中\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-28 19:25 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lv14Xv-iB491-ddK3pdX_w><strong>人民币交易与研究</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>全球最大对冲基金桥水创始人达里奥6月24日连发两篇推文，介绍自己衡量泡沫的六项指标，并发布了一个10分钟的视频阐述自己对当下股市泡沫的看法。\n在这个应罗宾汉基金会要求解释股票泡沫的视频中，达里奥表示，虽然指标显示一些股票目前“存在泡沫”，但股市眼下不一定处于泡沫中。\n\n达里奥在推文中写道，“我所说的泡沫是指不可持续的高价，我用六项指标来衡量它”，并指出投资者需关注买家杠杆水平和新买家数量等迹象。\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lv14Xv-iB491-ddK3pdX_w\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61ac6f61084482a9c0c70291c78e92f5","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lv14Xv-iB491-ddK3pdX_w","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186578125","content_text":"全球最大对冲基金桥水创始人达里奥6月24日连发两篇推文，介绍自己衡量泡沫的六项指标，并发布了一个10分钟的视频阐述自己对当下股市泡沫的看法。\n在这个应罗宾汉基金会要求解释股票泡沫的视频中，达里奥表示，虽然指标显示一些股票目前“存在泡沫”，但股市眼下不一定处于泡沫中。\n\n达里奥在推文中写道，“我所说的泡沫是指不可持续的高价，我用六项指标来衡量它”，并指出投资者需关注买家杠杆水平和新买家数量等迹象。\n事实上，早在5月中旬时，达里奥就曾在公众号分享了他对股市泡沫的研究，详述了这六种系统性“泡沫指标”，包括价格、看涨情绪、杠杆高低等：\n1． 相对传统的衡量标准，价格有多高？\n2． 价格是否反映了不可持续的状况？\n3． 有多少新买家（即之前不在市场里的人）进入了市场？\n4． 看涨情绪有多普遍？\n5． 交易是否依赖高杠杆的支撑？\n6． 买家是否过度进行远期交易（如建立库存、签订远期协议等）来投机或保护自己免受未来价格上涨的影响？\n\n以下是这个名为《股市目前是否处于泡沫中？》的视频演讲全文：\n大家好，很高兴能代表所有被罗宾汉（基金会）帮助过的人来到这里。\n你们知道，知道罗宾汉，是因为我认识保罗·都铎·琼斯，当时罗宾汉是他眼里的一抹微光，他会在贝德福德-斯图文森特街区（Bed Stuy）和孩子们一起打篮球，我很幸运能够看到他和罗宾汉基金的所有工作人员，以一种非常个人化和高效的方式来帮助减轻美国的贫困，并且能够成为其中的一员。你们所做的一切都很棒，所以我只想感谢你们所做的一切，并且告诉你们能够来到这里并尽我的微薄之力，我有多么高兴。\n我被要求谈论泡沫，市场、股市是否处于泡沫中，以及什么样的泡沫。我只想给你们一些关于这个问题的想法，我只有大约10分钟的时间。所以我想讲快点，几年前，我开始思考：什么是泡沫？当我们身处泡沫中时，我所说的泡沫是指什么？因为在我50年的投资生涯中，我看到了很多泡沫。\n在我脑海中，有六件事是我基本上认为会导致产生泡沫的，我将他们一一列举出来。现在，看着它们，以便您知道我在说什么。\n首先，您知道，我们的价格相对于传统的价格衡量标准有多高是一个考虑因素。例如，你知道我们的PSI或收益率之类的东西，这是一个考虑因素，但这不是我所说的泡沫。\n比方说，可能出现价格高回报低的现象，而且这种情况可以持续很长时间，但这并不意味着泡沫会破灭，只是其中一个组成因素。\n第二，价格是反映不可持续的条件，这里指的是买方的性质，谁在买入和如何买入，不可持续的条件会产生了价格调整或下跌，然后就出现了第三个投机因素——市场上的新买家被吸引了。\n您知道，这就像鸡尾酒会，有些从不参加的人出现了，也就是投资了某些资产，可能是科技股，也可能是房地产，但无论如何，每个人都想，没有持有这些东西会让他们觉得自己很蠢，诸如此类。\n第五项是大额购买远期“合约”，比如有人买了他们不了解的公寓，因为他们认为公寓会上涨，或者用大规模交易大宗商品的年代来举例。我会观察那些使用大宗商品的人，他们购买了大量远期合约。换句话说，购买库存以保护自己免受价格上涨的影响。\n所以当他们离场的时候——正如我们最近在大宗商品市场看到的——当他们抛售远期合约时，价格持续下跌，他们会说“我也不想要它”。\n而当价格上涨时，他们会说我们要进行溢价保护，对冲价格上涨。所以，延长了这些远期购买的买家是一个（泡沫）指标。\n我用这张表显示整个股市，我把这个框架基本上应用到所有资产上，并且使用一种系统化的方法，试图判断哪些处在泡沫中。在我看来，在各种各样的股票中，有些存在泡沫，有些则没有，而整个股市正如这张图表所显示的。\n这张图表可以追溯到1910年，它是一个彰显泡沫程度的指标。你可以看到当前是有泡沫的，但没有2000年和1929年那么高，不过高于2007年。\n\n让我们看看存在泡沫的股票，根据这些标准，很多股票没有泡沫。\n\n这张图表追溯到1995年，与2000年相比，前1000名的企业市值存在泡沫比例约为5%，整个标普500指数存在泡沫的份额约为2%，虽然不如2000年高，但比2007年高。\n现在来看下一张显示了泡沫股票的图表。\n\n我把这些泡沫股票与标准普尔500指数分离，可以看到泡沫股在大盘中的比例下降，我相信这种情况很可能会持续下去，但目前处于泡沫之中。其中一个问题是，泡沫可以扩张和收缩，时机是个大问题。\n下面这张图表可以追溯到1900年，上图显示的是债务与国内生产总值（GDP）之比，下图中蓝线显示的是利率，红线显示印钞规模，也就是流入的货币量。所以你可以看到当债务累加时，就像现在的情况，并且实施近零利率，这两种情况同时存在时就会大肆印钞。\n\n这是泡沫的一个关键因素，因为有大量的流动性进入市场，然后有很多资金哄抬各种各样的资产价格，所以你可以看到，当蓝线触及零时，红线大幅上行。大量流动性，大量的债务融资和债务货币化形成了一个典型的泡沫。\n其他可能产生泡沫的因素则是新股上市，特别是如果它们没有盈利，或者是在许多情况下没有盈利的前景。\n这些也是泡沫的考虑因素，所以我想说，你不能说当前的股市处于最高程度的泡沫，你必须区分哪些股票正处于泡沫中、或者一直处于泡沫中；哪些股票没有，实际上目前有许多股票并没有处于泡沫中。\n所以我希望这能让你对泡沫有所了解、我如何看待它们以及我们目前处于什么位置。谢谢。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2347,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":153106295,"gmtCreate":1625012189617,"gmtModify":1625012189617,"author":{"id":"3535919852177389","authorId":"3535919852177389","name":"且听风吟云起","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f99ccba0b1f951a039f14308c54b3cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3535919852177389","idStr":"3535919852177389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"MMT科普","listText":"MMT科普","text":"MMT科普","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153106295","repostId":"1172774847","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2863,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":150689107,"gmtCreate":1624896246409,"gmtModify":1624931491308,"author":{"id":"3535919852177389","authorId":"3535919852177389","name":"且听风吟云起","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f99ccba0b1f951a039f14308c54b3cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3535919852177389","idStr":"3535919852177389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"关注瓶颈效应，可关注零售商库销比，生产商库销比，批发商库销比的对比","listText":"关注瓶颈效应，可关注零售商库销比，生产商库销比，批发商库销比的对比","text":"关注瓶颈效应，可关注零售商库销比，生产商库销比，批发商库销比的对比","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150689107","repostId":"2145086880","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4336,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":150824012,"gmtCreate":1624893542636,"gmtModify":1624893542636,"author":{"id":"3535919852177389","authorId":"3535919852177389","name":"且听风吟云起","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f99ccba0b1f951a039f14308c54b3cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3535919852177389","idStr":"3535919852177389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"可见机锋","listText":"可见机锋","text":"可见机锋","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150824012","repostId":"1169261469","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2331,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":183672937,"gmtCreate":1623331305329,"gmtModify":1623331305329,"author":{"id":"3535919852177389","authorId":"3535919852177389","name":"且听风吟云起","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f99ccba0b1f951a039f14308c54b3cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3535919852177389","idStr":"3535919852177389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"冲浪和滑雪都是需要非常集中注意力的","listText":"冲浪和滑雪都是需要非常集中注意力的","text":"冲浪和滑雪都是需要非常集中注意力的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/183672937","repostId":"1155033069","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155033069","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623306885,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1155033069?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-10 14:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"高瓴资本张磊：人生经历四次转折，最佩服两个人","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155033069","media":"投资人","summary":"01 人生四次转折\n成为投资人我经历了四个转折点。\n第一，小学考初中，差点没考上。因为我当时学习成绩比较差，小学考初中的最低录取分是140分，我考了141分，刚好多1分。我大概从高中二年级才开始努力；","content":"<p><b>01 人生四次转折</b></p>\n<p>成为投资人我经历了四个转折点。</p>\n<p>第一，小学考初中，差点没考上。因为我当时学习成绩比较差，小学考初中的最低录取分是140分，我考了141分，刚好多1分。我大概从高中二年级才开始努力；这是我第一次开始感觉要努力，印象特别深。</p>\n<p>第二，我觉得是在人民大学读书。现在我交的很多很好的朋友还都是当年在人大读书的时候认识的，他们当中，现在有的是朋友，有的是关系很深的合作伙伴，有的还一起从事一些公益性事业。</p>\n<p>第三，我在耶鲁大学捐赠基金工作。在找工作这个煎熬的过程使自己重新发现了自己，再加上第一份工作中跟什么样的人工作，我觉得这两件事对我影响比较大，其实刚进耶鲁基金实习工作是不得已而为之。找了好几个别的工作机会，都被拒绝了。</p>\n<p>第四，就是创业。在为公司打工还是创业两者之间，我选择创业。当时我的工作比较不错，而且和当时的纽约证券交易所CEO，John Thain, 关系很好，所以他委派我担任中国地区第一任NYSE的代表。这是非常好的发展机会，我完全可以继续做下去，但后来我还是决定创业，在2005年我创建了高瓴资本。</p>\n<p><b>02 做事就要做好</b></p>\n<p>现在我经常会反复考虑，我发现自己最大特点就是爱折腾，不满足现状，爱挑战自己。今天公司规模已经这么大了，但是我总在公司内部说二次创业，永远创业。这就像我喜欢具有冒险精神的运动一样，在事业方面我也是爱折腾。此外，我从来不满足于现状，可能有些人会觉得你有几百亿美元基金，收管理费就够了，不用那么折腾。但我不愿意这样，要做就要做到最好，要么就不做。</p>\n<p>我觉得自己思考问题还算比较彻底全面，喜欢把很多事情反复地去推敲和琢磨。我很喜欢提早计划，其实创业之前我很早就开始计划，先到基金工作，然后到别的机构，这些机构经常派我回中国，给了我一个时间过渡区来考虑和安排我的事情，每一步走得比较扎实。</p>\n<p>其实，选择和什么样的人一起做事情非常重要。我对这一点非常挑剔，我喜欢找基于长期信任的、熟悉的人一起工作。我身边的核心同事，要么是当年人大的同学，要么就是以前的同事。我的事业最早就是这么一小撮朋友一起做起来的。</p>\n<p><b>03 最佩服两个人</b></p>\n<p>我最佩服的人有两个，一个是巴菲特，一个是史文森。这两个人我都有机会比较近距离的接触，我最佩服巴菲特是他的投资能力，另外我也十分佩服他是一个具有强烈同理心的人，英文就是empathy。我很喜欢这种有同理心的人；同理心能使他更好地去了解年轻人，了解和他不一样的人，了解管理层。所以今天我经常和我的管理人员说需要有同理心，这点我从他身上学到的。</p>\n<p>巴菲特总是能站在别人的角度想问题。打个比方，假设从严格的角度来讲，有个管理层不是做到最优秀的，但他总能站在别人的角度，假设自己处在那个环境下，分析这个情况是由于这些或者那些原因造成的。他不是只站在自己的角度，只站在投资者的角度。我觉得站在别人的角度想很不容易，因为每个人都习惯从自己的角度思考问题。</p>\n<p>我觉得这个同理心对于投资，人生，甚至家庭、人际关系，都是一个非常好的品质。我也经常和小孩子交流，让他们想想，如果你站在别人的角度上想，是什么样的？同理心非常重要，可以帮助更好地与人产生共鸣。</p>\n<p>说到史文森，我最佩服他的一点就是，他有非常强烈的道德感、责任感。可以这么说，他是我见过的把fiduciary duty和intellectual honesty结合得最好的一个人。这两个人永远都是是我的楷模，是我最佩服的人。</p>\n<p>史文森还教会了我很多东西，比如长期价值投资，机构投资，资产配置，对风险的理解等等。中国很多公司，比如社保、中投都把他的书当做必读物。我认为这些方法能推动投资在中国的机构化；对机构化的思考问题，体系搭建都是有帮助的。但比如说有效边界，怎么把它运用过来，在中国是有很多限制条件的，所以若要更好地跟中国状况相结合，还需要做好很多事情。</p>\n<p><b>04 未来的3个机遇</b></p>\n<p>对于互联网/移动互联网来说，我觉得机遇很多，把整个产业链整合是很重要的一块。但我更看好互联网金融，利用互联网把整个金融产业链、金融的产品，从保险、抵押贷款、到消费金融都结合在一起。很多结合的东西现在只是刚刚开始，还有很多机会在后面。</p>\n<p>我们旗下的清流资本已经投资了好几个这方面的公司。比如像51信用卡，这是像美国的Mint，把大家的理财、信用卡都管理起来。我们才刚刚开始这方面的投资，我相信下面还有很多。</p>\n<p>未来5年的投资机遇，我第一是看好创新，第二是看好中产阶级带来的巨大消费机会，第三是看好金融和资产管理行业，现在的需求远远没有被满足，尤其是资产管理，我觉得会有很多好的商业模式出来。</p>\n<p><b>05 每个人都能战斗</b></p>\n<p>有人说我不但是成功的投资者，也是优秀的领导者。但我觉得这两个角色是不一样的，经常有矛盾。一个好的投资者要有强烈的质疑能力，一个好的管理者要有更强大的亲和力与管理能力。</p>\n<p>我的领导风格受两个方面的影响，一是中国古代文化，尤其是老庄哲学；二是互联网思维、互联网精神。</p>\n<p>从中国哲学的角度来讲，比较像是老子的“无为而治”。而从真正的组织行为学来讲，我相信的是互联网模式带来的一种颠覆，我称之为去中心化的管理模式。像在前线打仗，我觉得像任正非而言，应该是听到炮声的人去做决策，而不是听到炮声的人要打电话给连长、再打给营长、营长再打给团长再做决策。去中心化决策模式能大幅度地提升在前线的班长和战士的作战能力。</p>\n<p>第二是大幅度减少公司的层级。我们公司的层级非常少，我是一层，六个合伙人是一层，所有的员工是一层。每个员工和我之间只有合伙人一层。这样的话就大幅度地消减层级。同时，精挑细选每一个员工。“去中心化”加“消减层级”，争取让每一个人都能够战斗。</p>\n<p>但是在管理过程中我也会遇到很多挑战。第一，诱惑。中国有很多事情可以做，我们怎么在诱惑中选取适合自己的，“弱水三千，但取一瓢”；第二，挑战是人才的培养。这个过程比我想象的要漫长，但我们现在摸到了好途径。人要花精力挑选，挑进来之后也要花很多时间按照高瓴文化和价值观来雕琢。好奇、诚实、独立是高瓴资本的企业文化。</p>\n<p>一有时间我还要去运动一下，像冲浪、单板滑雪，都是比较能够充分张扬个性，并且要求在运动中全神贯注。就像你在雪山上，能想什么别的？我夏天经常去冲浪，一周三四次，八点钟出去、九点钟回来洗个澡、九点半去上班，夏天很容易，冬天就去滑雪。</p>\n<p><b>06 张磊的投资哲学</b></p>\n<p>高瓴资本代表了一个非常不一样的投资机构，涵盖了最早期风险投资到私募股权投资再到上市公司投资以及上市以后的兼并投资。我们是全中国唯一在做全产业链事情的机构，这实际上在世界上也是不常见的。</p>\n<p>因为在美国完全不分私募股权和上市公司股权，股权全产业链做得最好最成功最大的实际上在美国，像Buffett既买可口可乐（45.430，+0.80%）股票，买上市公司股票，又自己去做风险投资甚至去做私募股权投资。本质上，投资就应该是这么做的，不要框定是做风险投资还是做上市股权投资。</p>\n<p>实际上，在风云变幻的中国，一年相当于西方的十年二十年，其中最重要的不是股权的format，最重要的是一种什么样的商业模式，有什么样的人。在高瓴资本内部培训中，第一讲就是人与生意，我们要投资什么样的人，要投资什么样的生意模式，人与生意的组合是我们选公司的第一个标准。</p>\n<p>为什么这种标准中大部分的人不能做到？有人说我要么做风险投资，要么做上市股权投资。我觉得有唯一一个belief，就是我们投资的第一原则，是什么呢？是We don‘t have to do anything．你不需要做任何事情，这是我们投资的第一个哲学思想，当你说自己不需要做任何事情时，就有机会做自己认为最重要的事情，我们在投资的过程中都在实践这一原则。</p>\n<p>我们在全球投资的规模和回报也是很靠前的，很多人知道我是耶鲁流派的，很多人知道耶鲁投资基金给了我怎么投资的想法。在翻译《机构投资者的创新之路》时，我对投资有了很深的理解。其实之前我做过很多行业，直到后期才找到我想干的事。</p>\n<p>在中国做投资最难的一点就是市场很浮躁，每天都有人告诉你市场上又发生了什么事情。我如何在浮躁的市场上保持冷静？就是我的第一个投资哲学，“以正治国，以奇用兵，守正用奇。”当你能够做到“正”你就能经得起各种各样的诱惑与挑战。</p>\n<p>为什么要用奇呢？一个人宁愿很conventional failure，也不愿unconventional success，为什么呢？不愿意打破常规去犯错误，这时候各种各样的人，在“守正”之后不能突破各种各样的限制去“用奇”，你的想法如果和别人不一样就可以走出一条自己的道路。</p>\n<p>在中国做投资，知道自己碗里能装多少东西更重要。所以我要讲的第二点就是，“弱水三千，但取一瓢”。你每天的功夫就是要把你的这一瓢做得更大更结实更深，而不是整天壶里的和桌上的菜都要喝掉吃掉。投资里面有这样一个定理，中西文化是相同的，跟老外讲就是a piece of mine，看到别人投了很好的东西你投不到你是不是会着急。你有这个哲学支撑就会找到the piece of mine，something you think make sense。</p>\n<p>当你只有低调的时候才能专心致志地把自己的东西做好。你在早年时就非常高调，拿上帝的话说就是“欲先使其灭亡，必先使其疯狂”。要低调，踏踏实实的做好投资，真正好的资源，真正好的投资人，好的投资项目会逐渐找到你的。</p>\n<p>在这个行业里最危险的事情就是，你是被钱驱动的。要么你很快就挣了很多钱，你不知道干什么，要么你一直没挣到钱很着急，你也不知道要干什么，所以为钱驱动是一个最最dangerous的想法。钱并不重要，是最后的一个nature income，不能成为一个目标，你肯定是为了一个passion，带着你走下来。</p>\n<p>我们是一个“异类”，有独立的思考，不在乎市场，不在乎别的投资机构。</p>","source":"lsy1585022731199","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>高瓴资本张磊：人生经历四次转折，最佩服两个人</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n高瓴资本张磊：人生经历四次转折，最佩服两个人\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-10 14:34 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/7BrGRylc59CUAS9DqPG17Q><strong>投资人</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>01 人生四次转折\n成为投资人我经历了四个转折点。\n第一，小学考初中，差点没考上。因为我当时学习成绩比较差，小学考初中的最低录取分是140分，我考了141分，刚好多1分。我大概从高中二年级才开始努力；这是我第一次开始感觉要努力，印象特别深。\n第二，我觉得是在人民大学读书。现在我交的很多很好的朋友还都是当年在人大读书的时候认识的，他们当中，现在有的是朋友，有的是关系很深的合作伙伴，有的还一起从事一些...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/7BrGRylc59CUAS9DqPG17Q\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/890dd2dfb205aa8aa1d140672304b3c8","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/7BrGRylc59CUAS9DqPG17Q","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155033069","content_text":"01 人生四次转折\n成为投资人我经历了四个转折点。\n第一，小学考初中，差点没考上。因为我当时学习成绩比较差，小学考初中的最低录取分是140分，我考了141分，刚好多1分。我大概从高中二年级才开始努力；这是我第一次开始感觉要努力，印象特别深。\n第二，我觉得是在人民大学读书。现在我交的很多很好的朋友还都是当年在人大读书的时候认识的，他们当中，现在有的是朋友，有的是关系很深的合作伙伴，有的还一起从事一些公益性事业。\n第三，我在耶鲁大学捐赠基金工作。在找工作这个煎熬的过程使自己重新发现了自己，再加上第一份工作中跟什么样的人工作，我觉得这两件事对我影响比较大，其实刚进耶鲁基金实习工作是不得已而为之。找了好几个别的工作机会，都被拒绝了。\n第四，就是创业。在为公司打工还是创业两者之间，我选择创业。当时我的工作比较不错，而且和当时的纽约证券交易所CEO，John Thain, 关系很好，所以他委派我担任中国地区第一任NYSE的代表。这是非常好的发展机会，我完全可以继续做下去，但后来我还是决定创业，在2005年我创建了高瓴资本。\n02 做事就要做好\n现在我经常会反复考虑，我发现自己最大特点就是爱折腾，不满足现状，爱挑战自己。今天公司规模已经这么大了，但是我总在公司内部说二次创业，永远创业。这就像我喜欢具有冒险精神的运动一样，在事业方面我也是爱折腾。此外，我从来不满足于现状，可能有些人会觉得你有几百亿美元基金，收管理费就够了，不用那么折腾。但我不愿意这样，要做就要做到最好，要么就不做。\n我觉得自己思考问题还算比较彻底全面，喜欢把很多事情反复地去推敲和琢磨。我很喜欢提早计划，其实创业之前我很早就开始计划，先到基金工作，然后到别的机构，这些机构经常派我回中国，给了我一个时间过渡区来考虑和安排我的事情，每一步走得比较扎实。\n其实，选择和什么样的人一起做事情非常重要。我对这一点非常挑剔，我喜欢找基于长期信任的、熟悉的人一起工作。我身边的核心同事，要么是当年人大的同学，要么就是以前的同事。我的事业最早就是这么一小撮朋友一起做起来的。\n03 最佩服两个人\n我最佩服的人有两个，一个是巴菲特，一个是史文森。这两个人我都有机会比较近距离的接触，我最佩服巴菲特是他的投资能力，另外我也十分佩服他是一个具有强烈同理心的人，英文就是empathy。我很喜欢这种有同理心的人；同理心能使他更好地去了解年轻人，了解和他不一样的人，了解管理层。所以今天我经常和我的管理人员说需要有同理心，这点我从他身上学到的。\n巴菲特总是能站在别人的角度想问题。打个比方，假设从严格的角度来讲，有个管理层不是做到最优秀的，但他总能站在别人的角度，假设自己处在那个环境下，分析这个情况是由于这些或者那些原因造成的。他不是只站在自己的角度，只站在投资者的角度。我觉得站在别人的角度想很不容易，因为每个人都习惯从自己的角度思考问题。\n我觉得这个同理心对于投资，人生，甚至家庭、人际关系，都是一个非常好的品质。我也经常和小孩子交流，让他们想想，如果你站在别人的角度上想，是什么样的？同理心非常重要，可以帮助更好地与人产生共鸣。\n说到史文森，我最佩服他的一点就是，他有非常强烈的道德感、责任感。可以这么说，他是我见过的把fiduciary duty和intellectual honesty结合得最好的一个人。这两个人永远都是是我的楷模，是我最佩服的人。\n史文森还教会了我很多东西，比如长期价值投资，机构投资，资产配置，对风险的理解等等。中国很多公司，比如社保、中投都把他的书当做必读物。我认为这些方法能推动投资在中国的机构化；对机构化的思考问题，体系搭建都是有帮助的。但比如说有效边界，怎么把它运用过来，在中国是有很多限制条件的，所以若要更好地跟中国状况相结合，还需要做好很多事情。\n04 未来的3个机遇\n对于互联网/移动互联网来说，我觉得机遇很多，把整个产业链整合是很重要的一块。但我更看好互联网金融，利用互联网把整个金融产业链、金融的产品，从保险、抵押贷款、到消费金融都结合在一起。很多结合的东西现在只是刚刚开始，还有很多机会在后面。\n我们旗下的清流资本已经投资了好几个这方面的公司。比如像51信用卡，这是像美国的Mint，把大家的理财、信用卡都管理起来。我们才刚刚开始这方面的投资，我相信下面还有很多。\n未来5年的投资机遇，我第一是看好创新，第二是看好中产阶级带来的巨大消费机会，第三是看好金融和资产管理行业，现在的需求远远没有被满足，尤其是资产管理，我觉得会有很多好的商业模式出来。\n05 每个人都能战斗\n有人说我不但是成功的投资者，也是优秀的领导者。但我觉得这两个角色是不一样的，经常有矛盾。一个好的投资者要有强烈的质疑能力，一个好的管理者要有更强大的亲和力与管理能力。\n我的领导风格受两个方面的影响，一是中国古代文化，尤其是老庄哲学；二是互联网思维、互联网精神。\n从中国哲学的角度来讲，比较像是老子的“无为而治”。而从真正的组织行为学来讲，我相信的是互联网模式带来的一种颠覆，我称之为去中心化的管理模式。像在前线打仗，我觉得像任正非而言，应该是听到炮声的人去做决策，而不是听到炮声的人要打电话给连长、再打给营长、营长再打给团长再做决策。去中心化决策模式能大幅度地提升在前线的班长和战士的作战能力。\n第二是大幅度减少公司的层级。我们公司的层级非常少，我是一层，六个合伙人是一层，所有的员工是一层。每个员工和我之间只有合伙人一层。这样的话就大幅度地消减层级。同时，精挑细选每一个员工。“去中心化”加“消减层级”，争取让每一个人都能够战斗。\n但是在管理过程中我也会遇到很多挑战。第一，诱惑。中国有很多事情可以做，我们怎么在诱惑中选取适合自己的，“弱水三千，但取一瓢”；第二，挑战是人才的培养。这个过程比我想象的要漫长，但我们现在摸到了好途径。人要花精力挑选，挑进来之后也要花很多时间按照高瓴文化和价值观来雕琢。好奇、诚实、独立是高瓴资本的企业文化。\n一有时间我还要去运动一下，像冲浪、单板滑雪，都是比较能够充分张扬个性，并且要求在运动中全神贯注。就像你在雪山上，能想什么别的？我夏天经常去冲浪，一周三四次，八点钟出去、九点钟回来洗个澡、九点半去上班，夏天很容易，冬天就去滑雪。\n06 张磊的投资哲学\n高瓴资本代表了一个非常不一样的投资机构，涵盖了最早期风险投资到私募股权投资再到上市公司投资以及上市以后的兼并投资。我们是全中国唯一在做全产业链事情的机构，这实际上在世界上也是不常见的。\n因为在美国完全不分私募股权和上市公司股权，股权全产业链做得最好最成功最大的实际上在美国，像Buffett既买可口可乐（45.430，+0.80%）股票，买上市公司股票，又自己去做风险投资甚至去做私募股权投资。本质上，投资就应该是这么做的，不要框定是做风险投资还是做上市股权投资。\n实际上，在风云变幻的中国，一年相当于西方的十年二十年，其中最重要的不是股权的format，最重要的是一种什么样的商业模式，有什么样的人。在高瓴资本内部培训中，第一讲就是人与生意，我们要投资什么样的人，要投资什么样的生意模式，人与生意的组合是我们选公司的第一个标准。\n为什么这种标准中大部分的人不能做到？有人说我要么做风险投资，要么做上市股权投资。我觉得有唯一一个belief，就是我们投资的第一原则，是什么呢？是We don‘t have to do anything．你不需要做任何事情，这是我们投资的第一个哲学思想，当你说自己不需要做任何事情时，就有机会做自己认为最重要的事情，我们在投资的过程中都在实践这一原则。\n我们在全球投资的规模和回报也是很靠前的，很多人知道我是耶鲁流派的，很多人知道耶鲁投资基金给了我怎么投资的想法。在翻译《机构投资者的创新之路》时，我对投资有了很深的理解。其实之前我做过很多行业，直到后期才找到我想干的事。\n在中国做投资最难的一点就是市场很浮躁，每天都有人告诉你市场上又发生了什么事情。我如何在浮躁的市场上保持冷静？就是我的第一个投资哲学，“以正治国，以奇用兵，守正用奇。”当你能够做到“正”你就能经得起各种各样的诱惑与挑战。\n为什么要用奇呢？一个人宁愿很conventional failure，也不愿unconventional success，为什么呢？不愿意打破常规去犯错误，这时候各种各样的人，在“守正”之后不能突破各种各样的限制去“用奇”，你的想法如果和别人不一样就可以走出一条自己的道路。\n在中国做投资，知道自己碗里能装多少东西更重要。所以我要讲的第二点就是，“弱水三千，但取一瓢”。你每天的功夫就是要把你的这一瓢做得更大更结实更深，而不是整天壶里的和桌上的菜都要喝掉吃掉。投资里面有这样一个定理，中西文化是相同的，跟老外讲就是a piece of mine，看到别人投了很好的东西你投不到你是不是会着急。你有这个哲学支撑就会找到the piece of mine，something you think make sense。\n当你只有低调的时候才能专心致志地把自己的东西做好。你在早年时就非常高调，拿上帝的话说就是“欲先使其灭亡，必先使其疯狂”。要低调，踏踏实实的做好投资，真正好的资源，真正好的投资人，好的投资项目会逐渐找到你的。\n在这个行业里最危险的事情就是，你是被钱驱动的。要么你很快就挣了很多钱，你不知道干什么，要么你一直没挣到钱很着急，你也不知道要干什么，所以为钱驱动是一个最最dangerous的想法。钱并不重要，是最后的一个nature income，不能成为一个目标，你肯定是为了一个passion，带着你走下来。\n我们是一个“异类”，有独立的思考，不在乎市场，不在乎别的投资机构。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2839,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":135362546,"gmtCreate":1622132352885,"gmtModify":1622132352885,"author":{"id":"3535919852177389","authorId":"3535919852177389","name":"且听风吟云起","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f99ccba0b1f951a039f14308c54b3cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3535919852177389","idStr":"3535919852177389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SY\">$新氧(SY)$</a>医美行业","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SY\">$新氧(SY)$</a>医美行业","text":"$新氧(SY)$医美行业","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/135362546","repostId":"16213958203564","repostType":17,"repost":{"id":629,"live_id":"16213958203564","type":0,"live_form":0,"category_id":2,"category_name":"老虎公开课","material_type":0,"regions":[1,7,2],"title":"“颜值经济”迎风口，千亿医美市场的投资机会","title_en":"","status":3,"abstract_en":[],"description_html":"","description_html_en":"","source_url":"https://lpl27170.laohu8.com/live/yimei.m3u8","video_url":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/73ba5544vodgzp1254107296/83576bbd5285890818970647854/9797a8fd4754b80005e689d5.mp4","live_img_url":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6793884150b1398667db2880b22b0c9b","live_img_url_en":"","activate_content":true,"expected_time":1622030400671,"time_remain":-132550970444,"start_time":0,"end_time":0,"user_counter":"93141","symbols":[],"speaker_info":[],"abstract":["在颜值经济时代，医美意识崛起、消费者年轻化、轻医美快速普及和互联网平台崛起，推动医美行业快速发展。医美行业的产品竞争格局和投资逻辑是怎样的？如何捕捉千亿医美市场的投资机会和布局医美概念呢？","【讲师介绍】\n纪慧诚：《甄选研报》专栏主笔人\nCFA、FRM、RFP，独立投资人，资深财经讲师，国内多家金融机构特聘讲师，曾就职于某大型券商、某金融财经培训公司高级合伙人。","【内容要点】\n医美行业及相关产业链分析\n医美行业产品竞争格局\n医美行业的投资逻辑\n医美行业重点公司点评\n"]},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3099,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":323187732,"gmtCreate":1615310772326,"gmtModify":1703487250167,"author":{"id":"3535919852177389","authorId":"3535919852177389","name":"且听风吟云起","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f99ccba0b1f951a039f14308c54b3cc","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3535919852177389","idStr":"3535919852177389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"About what would be really bad about innovation-based strategies ","listText":"About what would be really bad about innovation-based strategies ","text":"About what would be really bad about innovation-based strategies","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323187732","repostId":"2117653720","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2117653720","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615040808,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2117653720?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-06 22:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Cathie Wood’s Top 10 Stock Picks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2117653720","media":"Insider Monkey","summary":"In this article we discuss Cathie Wood's top 10 stock picks. You can skip our detailed analysis of C","content":"<html><body><p>In this article we discuss Cathie Wood's top 10 stock picks. You can skip our detailed analysis of Cathie Wood's investment strategy and go directly to <strong>Cathie Wood's Top 5 Stock Picks</strong>. </p>\n<p>Ark Investment’s Cathie Wood has become <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> of the most popular hedge fund managers and investors, thanks to her successful bets on technology, EV companies, biotech and DNA sequencing. The 65-year-old is, however, facing a difficult time as tech stocks begin to lose value and small biotech companies in which Ms. Wood’s ETFs have big positions are posting heavy losses. According to data from FactSet, two main ETFs of Cathie Wood posted their biggest losses since the stock market’s crash of March 2020. ARK Innovation Fund is also down 5% over the last 30 days.</p>\n<h2>Why Is Cathie Wood's ARK ETF Suddenly Losing Value?</h2>\n<p>Rising bond yields and a much-feared correction for tech stocks are causing the latest troubles for Cathie Wood’s favorite stock picks. The 10-year Treasury yield ticked up 1.5% after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in an interview showed no intention to hike interest rates.</p>\n<p>High yields often hammer growth stocks. In a Yahoo Finance program in January, Charles Schwab’s strategist Kathy Jones had said that we should expect higher inflation down the road and also mentioned her outlook about growth tech stocks. Here’s what she said:</p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>“We actually moved from Overweight to Neutral [on tech stocks] a couple of months ago. Mainly because valuations were so stretched and we thought that there was room for a correction.”</p>\n</blockquote>\n<h2>Cathie Wood's Dramatic Rise</h2>\n<p>With a bachelor’s degree in finance and economics from the University of Southern California, Ms. Wood started her career as an assistant at the LA-based financial services company Capital Group. After serving at senior positions at Jennison Associates, Tupelo Capital Management and AllianceBernstein, Ms. Wood founded ARK Investment Management in 2014 and quickly became successful due to her prescient investments in disruptive technology companies. ARK’s most famous Innovation ETF returned an impressive 152% in 2020, defying the struggling hedge fund industry and gaining Ms. Wood the best stock-picker of the year title from Bloomberg.</p> Cathie Wood talked about several important topics during a \nrecent talk on her ARK's YouTube channel. We will mention some of the most useful commentary from the video. \n<img height=\"499\" src=\"https://s.yimg.com/uu/api/res/1.2/a.CJ3s00qWxPPfyj7w9LSw--/cT03NTthcHBpZD15dmlkZW9mZWVkczs-/https://media.zenfs.com/en/insidermonkey.com/450cd38b3198aa1803cb1650ca4b7b5b\" width=\"750\"/> Taina Sohlman / Shutterstock.com \n<h2><strong>Cathie Wood on Monetary Policy</strong></h2>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\"With chairman Powell's testimony this week in front of congress, we see that the Fed is nothing but supportive. We see M2 growth still up in the mid-20s. A very rapid rate of growth. The chairman emphasized once again that they're focused on two things. Full employment, and we are far away from that. Then inflation, above 2% and consistently above 2% on a year-over-year basis. We are not there yet. We're in the 1.5% to 2% range so nothing right now suggests that the Fed is going to tighten except for maybe the markets themselves. We see other indicators perhaps calling for some changes at the Fed in terms of tightening up monetary policy. We see commodity prices really moving up very rapidly especially copper relative to gold. Copper is the commodity with the PHD as many people often say. Gold is more of the safe haven or inflation hedge. So to see copper going up that rapidly against gold suggests there are animal spirits out there. The dollar is going down, housing prices are moving up at a double-digit rate, which is pretty astonishing. We've seen very strong asset market prices when it comes to stocks, generally we're still up for the year even after the recent turmoil.\"</p>\n</blockquote>\n<h2><strong>Cathie Wood on Value Stocks</strong></h2>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\"When president Trump was elected, value stocks took-off just like they're taking off now, responding to this idea that this economy is developing ahead of steam. So the value stocks have taken off and in fact if you look at year-to-date, I think financial stocks are up 11%, and energy stocks are up 27%. I think technology stocks, if I'm not mistaken are up basically 1% and health care, which is another area to which innovation strategies are exposed. Traditional value stocks are having a nice run here and how do we feel about that? We feel really good, just like we did in 2016 when we said value is up. Actually the market was up, value up even more, and growth strategies like ours were down... What would be very negative for innovation-based strategies is if the market continued to narrow. Only innovation strategies worked because that's what happened during the tech and telecom bubble.\"</p>\n</blockquote>\n<h2><strong>About Bitcoin</strong></h2>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\"Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in the last two weeks, has gone out of her way in an answer to telegraph how speculative Bitcoin is and how it's not environmentally friendly or sustainable, and how it helps elicit activity or encourages. I'm not quite sure why she's saying this. All I know is that she does not understand the crypto space. I say this with all due respect. I just don't think it is what she does. She's responding to a movement in price that I understand, which has been very rapid. Think about it. I think up five-fold, since the end of the third quarter. That's pretty extreme so I can understand her saying that... If you compare the energy use of Bitcoin in particular compared to the energy it would take to mine gold, for bitcoin is digital gold. It's a fraction of it. If you want to think about it a little bit more broadly because the Bitcoin blockchain and other blockchains are going to enable much more rapid settlement of trades and transactions than the traditional financial institution... I think the most important thing that we as investors need to do is be very supportive of those who are evolving this ecosystem. We at ARK are thinking about ways to help the community in terms of bitcoin developers to secure the network. It is right now the most secure blockchain technology out there, and so for a very high value transaction, think a million dollar transaction, it does take 10 minutes and that seems to be a complaint and it is a complaint relative to other blockchains that involve smart contracts that are instantaneously settled... Our confidence in Bitcoin and the block bitcoin blockchain has continued to grow over the years.\"</p>\n</blockquote>\n<h2><strong>Cathie Wood on Electric Vehicles, DNA, Good and Bad Deflation</strong></h2>\n<blockquote>\n<p>\"As we've told you before in the electric vehicle space for example, that deflation rate is 28% for every cumulative doubling in the number of units produced. We're only 2.2 million units of EVs right now. It's not going to take long to double that 2.2 million units. In the DNA sequencing space, it's 40% for cumulative for every cumulative doubling and we're at a very low base there as well. Those low bases are going to move up pretty quickly. We think electric vehicle sales will move from 2.2 million to 40 million, almost 20-fold increase in the next five years, but they're at a low base right now and they will only begin to impact economic statistics as they scale during the next few years. In the meantime, what's going to happen there, this disruptive innovation is going to cause creative destruction in the traditional world order. It's not just electric vehicles and DNA sequencing, it's robotics, artificial intelligence, blockchain technology. There is so much innovation taking place right now and I don't think that investors appreciate how these S-curves are feeding <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> another as these innovations converge. The best example of that, we believe will be autonomous taxi networks, the convergence of robots, autonomous vehicles are robots. Energy storage, they will be electric. That's going to be the cheapest form of transportation and artificial intelligence... The bad deflation is associated with the disintermediation and disruption to the traditional world order. It's going to put a lot of companies who thought they were steady at ease, and nothing would ever change, whether it's in the financial services sector or the auto related sector and maybe the rail sector. Almost any company associated with the internal combustion engine and suppliers around. These are massive parts of the economy. Many of those companies have adopted short-time horizons themselves and catered to these shareholders. They have consistently leveraged up to buy back their shares and pay dividends. We're seeing the result in 'informally' blue chip stocks. GE is one, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBM\">IBM</a> is another. There are going to be many more of these. Many are highly leveraged because they did not understand how quickly the world was going to evolve. In fact their time horizon was not five or ten years. It was two years or until then the end of the CEO's term. What's going to happen, we believe is they are going to be forced to cut prices in order to service their debt. So that's the bad deflation... Then we have this question about how money will cause inflation. I don't know. I would say these two deflationary forces are pretty wonderful in the short-term. They're going to cause a lot of confusion and it's somewhat esoteric. All it means is, the rate at which money turns over if there's a lot of confusion, will continue to fall. The reason that the monetary easing globally during the 2008 and 2009 meltdown and afterwards, it never ignited. Inflation was this velocity, the money went up, but the rate at which it turned over per year in the economy slowed down as people held back, they were risk-averse, concerned about their futures, concerned about their company's futures. I think that probably will continue as these dueling deflationary forces, good and bad, duel with one another.\"</p>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Cathie Wood has really surprised the markets with her sterling gains, because overall, the hedge fund industry is apparently struggling. Its reputation has been tarnished in the last decade during which its hedged returns couldn’t keep up with the unhedged returns of the market indices. On the other hand, Insider Monkey’s research was able to identify in advance a select group of hedge fund holdings that outperformed the S&P 500 ETFs by more than 111 percentage points since March 2017. Between March 2017 and February 5th 2021 our monthly newsletter’s stock picks returned 187.5%, vs. 75.8% for the SPY (<strong>see the details here</strong>). We were also able to identify in advance a select group of hedge fund holdings that significantly underperformed the market. We have been tracking and sharing the list of these stocks since February 2017 and they lost 13% through November 16. That’s why we believe hedge fund sentiment is an extremely useful indicator that investors should pay attention to. You can subscribe to our free newsletter on our homepage to receive our stories in your inbox.</p>\n<p>Let’s start our list of Cathie Wood's top 10 stock picks.</p>\n<h3>10. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPOT\">Spotify Technology S.A.</a> (NYSE: SPOT)</h3>\n<p><em><strong>Value: $741,445,000</strong></em> <em><strong>Change in Position Size: 110%</strong></em> <em><strong>Percent of Cathie Wood’s 13F Portfolio: 2%</strong></em></p>\n<p>Spotify is a Sweden-based audio content company which boats a subscriber base of about 155 million as of the end of 2020. As of the fourth quarter of 2020, the company had 345 million monthly active users, up 27% from last year. However, average revenue per user fell 8% to $5.13 in the period, mainly because of discounts and the company’s foray into new markets like Russia.</p>\n<p><span>With a $741.4 million stake in Spotify, </span><span>ARK Investment Management</span><span> owns 2.4 million shares of the company as of the end of the fourth quarter of 2020. Our database shows that 48 hedge funds held stakes in SPOT at the end of the fourth quarter, versus 44 funds at the end of the third quarter.</span></p> Guardian Fund, in their Q4 2020 Investor Letter, said that they acquired a position in Spotify Technology S.A. (NYSE: \nSPOT) because they believe that the company has a long runway of growth ahead. Here is what Guardian Fund has to say about Spotify Technology S.A. in their \ninvestor letter: \n<blockquote>\n<p>\"At the current share price, Spotify basically only represents a fraction of the value they will be able to unlock in the growing market of audio entertainment. The key for Spotify is to change a variable cost base into a fixed cost base just like Netflix has. As the market share of the big labels, measured by the daily hours of engagement of the big labels, is declining, Spotify will be able to adjust its business model and create enormous operational leverage meaning that profitability will grow faster than expenses.</p>\n<p>The music catalogue is not the business model. The value lies in the machine learning that drives discovery and engagement, the original content from people like Michelle Obama, Kim Kardashian, and Joe Rogan, the data analytics and distribution for artists, the direct and social relations artists can have with fans through music and videos. We believe that Spotify will be worth at least five times more in 2030.”</p>\n</blockquote>\n<h3>9. Twist Bioscience Corporation (NASDAQ: TWST)</h3>\n<p><em><strong>Value: $830,357,000</strong></em> <em><strong>Change in Position Size: 86%</strong></em> <em><strong>Percent of Cathie Wood’s 13F Portfolio: 2.2%</strong></em></p>\n<p>Ranking 9th on the list of Cathie Wood's top 10 stock picks is DNA and biotech company Twist Bioscience. The company makes synthetic DNA for clients in the biotechnology industry. It makes hardware like chips and robotics technology services, as well as software for biotech companies. In 2016 the company bought Israel-based software company Genome Compiler, which makes software to design synthetic DNA.</p>\n<p>The stock is up 245% over the last 12 months.</p>\n<p>As of the end of the fourth quarter, 23 hedge funds in Insider Monkey’s database of 887 funds held stakes in TWST, compared to 21 funds in the third quarter. Cathie Wood's ARK Investment Management is the company’s most significant stakeholder, with 5.9 million shares worth $830.4 million.</p>\n<h3>8. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Z\">Zillow</a> Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: Z)</h3>\n<p><em><strong>Value: $841,260,000</strong></em> <em><strong>Change in Position Size: 32%</strong></em> <em><strong>Percent of Cathie Wood’s 13F Portfolio: 2.2%</strong></em></p>\n<p>Zillow is one of the biggest real estate services companies in the U.S., offering web and mobile services to facilitate renting, buying and home financing. The company is operating Zillow, HotPads, Trulia, StreetEasy, Naked Apartments and RealEstate.com. Zillow shares recently gained value after the company posted better-than-expected Q4 results. The company said traffic to its mobile apps and websites reached 201 million average monthly unique users, a record.</p>\n<p>There were 83 hedge funds in our database that held stakes in Zillow Group at the end of the fourth quarter, compared to 69 funds in the third quarter.</p>\n<h3>7. Pure Storage, Inc. (NYSE: PSTG)</h3>\n<p><em><strong>Value: $930,656,000</strong></em> <em><strong>Change in Position Size: 61%</strong></em> <em><strong>Percent of Cathie Wood’s 13F Portfolio: 2.5%</strong></em></p>\n<p>Pure Storage ranks 7th on the list of Cathie Wood’s top 10 stock picks. The company makes all-flash data storage hardware and software products. In February, KeyBanc reiterated its Overweight rating on Pure Storage and upped its price target to $32 from $23, citing upbeat earnings and strong demand. Credit Suisse also recently increased its price target for the stock to $21 from $18 citing the most recent quarterly results. The firm said the company’s momentum is expected to continue through 2021.</p>\n<p><span>According to our database, the number of PSTG’s long hedge funds positions decreased at the end of the fourth quarter of 2020. 21 hedge funds hold a position in Pure Storage by the end of December, compared to the 22 funds in the third quarter. The company’s biggest stakeholder is ARK</span><span>, with 41.2 million shares worth $930.7 million.</span></p>\n<h3>6. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVTA\">Invitae Corporation</a> (NYSE: NVTA)</h3>\n<p><em><strong>Value: $1,128,918,000</strong></em> <em><strong>Change in Position Size: -3%</strong></em> <em><strong>Percent of Cathie Wood’s 13F Portfolio: 3%</strong></em></p>\n<p>Ranking 6th on the list of Cathie Wood’s top 10 stocks picks is Invitae, a DNA processing and genetic sequencing company. The stock is up 93% over the last 12 months. In February, Oppenheimer analyst Kevin DeGeeter downgraded the stock to Perform from Outperform. In the fourth quarter, Invitae’s losses increased by 85% on a year-over-year basis. However, the company reiterated its outlook for revenue growth targets of 50%-60% for the next few years.</p>\n<p>As of the end of the fourth quarter, 35 hedge funds in Insider Monkey’s database of 887 funds held stakes in Invitae Corp., compared to 24 funds in the third quarter. ARK Investment Management is the company’s biggest stakeholder, with 27 million shares worth $1.1 billion.</p>\n<p><strong>Click to continue reading and see Cathie Wood's Top 5 Stock Picks.</strong></p>\n<p>Suggested articles:</p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>John Rogers’ Top 10 Stock Picks</strong></li>\n<li><strong>10 Best Manufacturing Stocks To Buy Now</strong></li>\n<li><strong>Billionaire Julian Robertson On Interest Rates and His Top Stock Picks For 2021</strong></li>\n</ul>\n<p>Disclosure: None. <strong>Cathie Wood's Top 10 Stock Picks</strong> is originally published on Insider Monkey.</p></body></html>","source":"yahoofinance","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Cathie Wood’s Top 10 Stock Picks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCathie Wood’s Top 10 Stock Picks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-06 22:26 GMT+8 <a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cathie-wood-top-10-stock-142648791.html><strong>Insider Monkey</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In this article we discuss Cathie Wood's top 10 stock picks. You can skip our detailed analysis of Cathie Wood's investment strategy and go directly to Cathie Wood's Top 5 Stock Picks. \nArk Investment...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cathie-wood-top-10-stock-142648791.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://s.yimg.com/uu/api/res/1.2/VnKmuAiVwFRfKWPXtlkVaw--~B/aD00OTk7dz03NTA7YXBwaWQ9eXRhY2h5b24-/https://s.yimg.com/uu/api/res/1.2/zA3N9qhMHPYa9HAcTrgDMA--~B/aD00OTk7dz03NTA7YXBwaWQ9eXRhY2h5b24-/https://media.zenfs.com/en/insidermonkey.com/450cd38b3198aa1803cb1650ca4b7b5b","relate_stocks":{"TDOC":"Teladoc Health Inc.","NVTA":"Invitae Corporation","ZG":"Zillow Class A","ROKU":"Roku Inc","PSTG":"Pure Storage Inc","TWST":"Twist Bioscience Corp","TSLA":"特斯拉","Z":"Zillow","CRSP":"CRISPR Therapeutics AG","SPOT":"Spotify Technology S.A."},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cathie-wood-top-10-stock-142648791.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5f26f4a48f9cb3e29be4d71d3ba8c038","article_id":"2117653720","content_text":"In this article we discuss Cathie Wood's top 10 stock picks. You can skip our detailed analysis of Cathie Wood's investment strategy and go directly to Cathie Wood's Top 5 Stock Picks. \nArk Investment’s Cathie Wood has become one of the most popular hedge fund managers and investors, thanks to her successful bets on technology, EV companies, biotech and DNA sequencing. The 65-year-old is, however, facing a difficult time as tech stocks begin to lose value and small biotech companies in which Ms. Wood’s ETFs have big positions are posting heavy losses. According to data from FactSet, two main ETFs of Cathie Wood posted their biggest losses since the stock market’s crash of March 2020. ARK Innovation Fund is also down 5% over the last 30 days.\nWhy Is Cathie Wood's ARK ETF Suddenly Losing Value?\nRising bond yields and a much-feared correction for tech stocks are causing the latest troubles for Cathie Wood’s favorite stock picks. The 10-year Treasury yield ticked up 1.5% after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in an interview showed no intention to hike interest rates.\nHigh yields often hammer growth stocks. In a Yahoo Finance program in January, Charles Schwab’s strategist Kathy Jones had said that we should expect higher inflation down the road and also mentioned her outlook about growth tech stocks. Here’s what she said:\n\n“We actually moved from Overweight to Neutral [on tech stocks] a couple of months ago. Mainly because valuations were so stretched and we thought that there was room for a correction.”\n\nCathie Wood's Dramatic Rise\nWith a bachelor’s degree in finance and economics from the University of Southern California, Ms. Wood started her career as an assistant at the LA-based financial services company Capital Group. After serving at senior positions at Jennison Associates, Tupelo Capital Management and AllianceBernstein, Ms. Wood founded ARK Investment Management in 2014 and quickly became successful due to her prescient investments in disruptive technology companies. ARK’s most famous Innovation ETF returned an impressive 152% in 2020, defying the struggling hedge fund industry and gaining Ms. Wood the best stock-picker of the year title from Bloomberg. Cathie Wood talked about several important topics during a \nrecent talk on her ARK's YouTube channel. We will mention some of the most useful commentary from the video. \n Taina Sohlman / Shutterstock.com \nCathie Wood on Monetary Policy\n\n\"With chairman Powell's testimony this week in front of congress, we see that the Fed is nothing but supportive. We see M2 growth still up in the mid-20s. A very rapid rate of growth. The chairman emphasized once again that they're focused on two things. Full employment, and we are far away from that. Then inflation, above 2% and consistently above 2% on a year-over-year basis. We are not there yet. We're in the 1.5% to 2% range so nothing right now suggests that the Fed is going to tighten except for maybe the markets themselves. We see other indicators perhaps calling for some changes at the Fed in terms of tightening up monetary policy. We see commodity prices really moving up very rapidly especially copper relative to gold. Copper is the commodity with the PHD as many people often say. Gold is more of the safe haven or inflation hedge. So to see copper going up that rapidly against gold suggests there are animal spirits out there. The dollar is going down, housing prices are moving up at a double-digit rate, which is pretty astonishing. We've seen very strong asset market prices when it comes to stocks, generally we're still up for the year even after the recent turmoil.\"\n\nCathie Wood on Value Stocks\n\n\"When president Trump was elected, value stocks took-off just like they're taking off now, responding to this idea that this economy is developing ahead of steam. So the value stocks have taken off and in fact if you look at year-to-date, I think financial stocks are up 11%, and energy stocks are up 27%. I think technology stocks, if I'm not mistaken are up basically 1% and health care, which is another area to which innovation strategies are exposed. Traditional value stocks are having a nice run here and how do we feel about that? We feel really good, just like we did in 2016 when we said value is up. Actually the market was up, value up even more, and growth strategies like ours were down... What would be very negative for innovation-based strategies is if the market continued to narrow. Only innovation strategies worked because that's what happened during the tech and telecom bubble.\"\n\nAbout Bitcoin\n\n\"Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in the last two weeks, has gone out of her way in an answer to telegraph how speculative Bitcoin is and how it's not environmentally friendly or sustainable, and how it helps elicit activity or encourages. I'm not quite sure why she's saying this. All I know is that she does not understand the crypto space. I say this with all due respect. I just don't think it is what she does. She's responding to a movement in price that I understand, which has been very rapid. Think about it. I think up five-fold, since the end of the third quarter. That's pretty extreme so I can understand her saying that... If you compare the energy use of Bitcoin in particular compared to the energy it would take to mine gold, for bitcoin is digital gold. It's a fraction of it. If you want to think about it a little bit more broadly because the Bitcoin blockchain and other blockchains are going to enable much more rapid settlement of trades and transactions than the traditional financial institution... I think the most important thing that we as investors need to do is be very supportive of those who are evolving this ecosystem. We at ARK are thinking about ways to help the community in terms of bitcoin developers to secure the network. It is right now the most secure blockchain technology out there, and so for a very high value transaction, think a million dollar transaction, it does take 10 minutes and that seems to be a complaint and it is a complaint relative to other blockchains that involve smart contracts that are instantaneously settled... Our confidence in Bitcoin and the block bitcoin blockchain has continued to grow over the years.\"\n\nCathie Wood on Electric Vehicles, DNA, Good and Bad Deflation\n\n\"As we've told you before in the electric vehicle space for example, that deflation rate is 28% for every cumulative doubling in the number of units produced. We're only 2.2 million units of EVs right now. It's not going to take long to double that 2.2 million units. In the DNA sequencing space, it's 40% for cumulative for every cumulative doubling and we're at a very low base there as well. Those low bases are going to move up pretty quickly. We think electric vehicle sales will move from 2.2 million to 40 million, almost 20-fold increase in the next five years, but they're at a low base right now and they will only begin to impact economic statistics as they scale during the next few years. In the meantime, what's going to happen there, this disruptive innovation is going to cause creative destruction in the traditional world order. It's not just electric vehicles and DNA sequencing, it's robotics, artificial intelligence, blockchain technology. There is so much innovation taking place right now and I don't think that investors appreciate how these S-curves are feeding one another as these innovations converge. The best example of that, we believe will be autonomous taxi networks, the convergence of robots, autonomous vehicles are robots. Energy storage, they will be electric. That's going to be the cheapest form of transportation and artificial intelligence... The bad deflation is associated with the disintermediation and disruption to the traditional world order. It's going to put a lot of companies who thought they were steady at ease, and nothing would ever change, whether it's in the financial services sector or the auto related sector and maybe the rail sector. Almost any company associated with the internal combustion engine and suppliers around. These are massive parts of the economy. Many of those companies have adopted short-time horizons themselves and catered to these shareholders. They have consistently leveraged up to buy back their shares and pay dividends. We're seeing the result in 'informally' blue chip stocks. GE is one, IBM is another. There are going to be many more of these. Many are highly leveraged because they did not understand how quickly the world was going to evolve. In fact their time horizon was not five or ten years. It was two years or until then the end of the CEO's term. What's going to happen, we believe is they are going to be forced to cut prices in order to service their debt. So that's the bad deflation... Then we have this question about how money will cause inflation. I don't know. I would say these two deflationary forces are pretty wonderful in the short-term. They're going to cause a lot of confusion and it's somewhat esoteric. All it means is, the rate at which money turns over if there's a lot of confusion, will continue to fall. The reason that the monetary easing globally during the 2008 and 2009 meltdown and afterwards, it never ignited. Inflation was this velocity, the money went up, but the rate at which it turned over per year in the economy slowed down as people held back, they were risk-averse, concerned about their futures, concerned about their company's futures. I think that probably will continue as these dueling deflationary forces, good and bad, duel with one another.\"\n\nCathie Wood has really surprised the markets with her sterling gains, because overall, the hedge fund industry is apparently struggling. Its reputation has been tarnished in the last decade during which its hedged returns couldn’t keep up with the unhedged returns of the market indices. On the other hand, Insider Monkey’s research was able to identify in advance a select group of hedge fund holdings that outperformed the S&P 500 ETFs by more than 111 percentage points since March 2017. Between March 2017 and February 5th 2021 our monthly newsletter’s stock picks returned 187.5%, vs. 75.8% for the SPY (see the details here). We were also able to identify in advance a select group of hedge fund holdings that significantly underperformed the market. We have been tracking and sharing the list of these stocks since February 2017 and they lost 13% through November 16. That’s why we believe hedge fund sentiment is an extremely useful indicator that investors should pay attention to. You can subscribe to our free newsletter on our homepage to receive our stories in your inbox.\nLet’s start our list of Cathie Wood's top 10 stock picks.\n10. Spotify Technology S.A. (NYSE: SPOT)\nValue: $741,445,000 Change in Position Size: 110% Percent of Cathie Wood’s 13F Portfolio: 2%\nSpotify is a Sweden-based audio content company which boats a subscriber base of about 155 million as of the end of 2020. As of the fourth quarter of 2020, the company had 345 million monthly active users, up 27% from last year. However, average revenue per user fell 8% to $5.13 in the period, mainly because of discounts and the company’s foray into new markets like Russia.\nWith a $741.4 million stake in Spotify, ARK Investment Management owns 2.4 million shares of the company as of the end of the fourth quarter of 2020. Our database shows that 48 hedge funds held stakes in SPOT at the end of the fourth quarter, versus 44 funds at the end of the third quarter. Guardian Fund, in their Q4 2020 Investor Letter, said that they acquired a position in Spotify Technology S.A. (NYSE: \nSPOT) because they believe that the company has a long runway of growth ahead. Here is what Guardian Fund has to say about Spotify Technology S.A. in their \ninvestor letter: \n\n\"At the current share price, Spotify basically only represents a fraction of the value they will be able to unlock in the growing market of audio entertainment. The key for Spotify is to change a variable cost base into a fixed cost base just like Netflix has. As the market share of the big labels, measured by the daily hours of engagement of the big labels, is declining, Spotify will be able to adjust its business model and create enormous operational leverage meaning that profitability will grow faster than expenses.\nThe music catalogue is not the business model. The value lies in the machine learning that drives discovery and engagement, the original content from people like Michelle Obama, Kim Kardashian, and Joe Rogan, the data analytics and distribution for artists, the direct and social relations artists can have with fans through music and videos. We believe that Spotify will be worth at least five times more in 2030.”\n\n9. Twist Bioscience Corporation (NASDAQ: TWST)\nValue: $830,357,000 Change in Position Size: 86% Percent of Cathie Wood’s 13F Portfolio: 2.2%\nRanking 9th on the list of Cathie Wood's top 10 stock picks is DNA and biotech company Twist Bioscience. The company makes synthetic DNA for clients in the biotechnology industry. It makes hardware like chips and robotics technology services, as well as software for biotech companies. In 2016 the company bought Israel-based software company Genome Compiler, which makes software to design synthetic DNA.\nThe stock is up 245% over the last 12 months.\nAs of the end of the fourth quarter, 23 hedge funds in Insider Monkey’s database of 887 funds held stakes in TWST, compared to 21 funds in the third quarter. Cathie Wood's ARK Investment Management is the company’s most significant stakeholder, with 5.9 million shares worth $830.4 million.\n8. Zillow Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: Z)\nValue: $841,260,000 Change in Position Size: 32% Percent of Cathie Wood’s 13F Portfolio: 2.2%\nZillow is one of the biggest real estate services companies in the U.S., offering web and mobile services to facilitate renting, buying and home financing. The company is operating Zillow, HotPads, Trulia, StreetEasy, Naked Apartments and RealEstate.com. Zillow shares recently gained value after the company posted better-than-expected Q4 results. The company said traffic to its mobile apps and websites reached 201 million average monthly unique users, a record.\nThere were 83 hedge funds in our database that held stakes in Zillow Group at the end of the fourth quarter, compared to 69 funds in the third quarter.\n7. Pure Storage, Inc. (NYSE: PSTG)\nValue: $930,656,000 Change in Position Size: 61% Percent of Cathie Wood’s 13F Portfolio: 2.5%\nPure Storage ranks 7th on the list of Cathie Wood’s top 10 stock picks. The company makes all-flash data storage hardware and software products. In February, KeyBanc reiterated its Overweight rating on Pure Storage and upped its price target to $32 from $23, citing upbeat earnings and strong demand. Credit Suisse also recently increased its price target for the stock to $21 from $18 citing the most recent quarterly results. The firm said the company’s momentum is expected to continue through 2021.\nAccording to our database, the number of PSTG’s long hedge funds positions decreased at the end of the fourth quarter of 2020. 21 hedge funds hold a position in Pure Storage by the end of December, compared to the 22 funds in the third quarter. The company’s biggest stakeholder is ARK, with 41.2 million shares worth $930.7 million.\n6. Invitae Corporation (NYSE: NVTA)\nValue: $1,128,918,000 Change in Position Size: -3% Percent of Cathie Wood’s 13F Portfolio: 3%\nRanking 6th on the list of Cathie Wood’s top 10 stocks picks is Invitae, a DNA processing and genetic sequencing company. The stock is up 93% over the last 12 months. In February, Oppenheimer analyst Kevin DeGeeter downgraded the stock to Perform from Outperform. In the fourth quarter, Invitae’s losses increased by 85% on a year-over-year basis. However, the company reiterated its outlook for revenue growth targets of 50%-60% for the next few years.\nAs of the end of the fourth quarter, 35 hedge funds in Insider Monkey’s database of 887 funds held stakes in Invitae Corp., compared to 24 funds in the third quarter. ARK Investment Management is the company’s biggest stakeholder, with 27 million shares worth $1.1 billion.\nClick to continue reading and see Cathie Wood's Top 5 Stock Picks.\nSuggested articles:\n\nJohn Rogers’ Top 10 Stock Picks\n10 Best Manufacturing Stocks To Buy Now\nBillionaire Julian Robertson On Interest Rates and His Top Stock Picks For 2021\n\nDisclosure: None. 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