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中国你把你真实的小区网线
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中国你把你真实的小区网线
中国你把你真实的小区网线
·
2022-08-02
用美国人的嘴皮来挽救，中国大陆的房产金融经济吧！中国不是经济金融房产，而是征信系统无序时账簿…
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中国你把你真实的小区网线
中国你把你真实的小区网线
·
2022-07-09
马某某喜欢空手套白狠？
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中国你把你真实的小区网线
中国你把你真实的小区网线
·
2022-07-04
$协鑫集成(002506)$
与业务有关于业绩无关吗！3.75+0.38时会涌动存量资金周转过来了！
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中国你把你真实的小区网线
中国你把你真实的小区网线
·
2022-03-22
2020油价-9.8美金一桶，是倒贴交易馘依然存在的！现如今…俄罗斯普京埙石级操盘手，放弃美金了吗？俄罗斯货币重新洗牌了！人民币夹在中间里外不是人！
美银：我们即将见证一场历史性原油大逼空！
还记得2020年4月那场负油价噩梦吗？这次可能是反过来......
美银：我们即将见证一场历史性原油大逼空！
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中国你把你真实的小区网线
中国你把你真实的小区网线
·
2021-01-18
什么是核心核心里头还有核心核心，无限极的核心。
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中国你把你真实的小区网线
中国你把你真实的小区网线
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2021-01-18
GDP上了1,000,000亿人民币，年轻人那点工资能够支撑生活吗？
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中国你把你真实的小区网线
中国你把你真实的小区网线
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2021-01-14
以大欺小
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中国你把你真实的小区网线
中国你把你真实的小区网线
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2021-01-09
骨象征主义，眉毛黑，辛苦啦
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中国你把你真实的小区网线
中国你把你真实的小区网线
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2021-01-09
美国变成了政治政府了，没有利益，美国会停手噢！你国你该如何应对？
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中国你把你真实的小区网线
中国你把你真实的小区网线
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2021-01-08
你自身，没有你们先人传承的志向！
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11:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美银：我们即将见证一场历史性原油大逼空！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166323813","media":"金十数据","summary":"还记得2020年4月那场负油价噩梦吗？这次可能是反过来......","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>还记得2020年4月那场负油价噩梦吗？这次可能是反过来......</blockquote><p>不少分析师一再警告，由于原油产量增长有限以及炼油和出口需求强劲，未来几个月美国库欣地区库存将趋紧。而现在，正如华尔街多家看涨原油的银行所警告的那样，乌克兰冲突显然给供应带来了更大的风险。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>大宗商品团队周一向专业客户发布了一份题为“库欣缓冲库存所剩无几”（Cushing's Cushion Wears Thin）的必读报告。报告指出，WTI原油日历价差最近飙升至十年高位（1个月期和3个月期合约的价差为11.70美元），虽然现已有所稳定，但仍然处于高位，这不利于鼓励交易商储存石油。</p><p>因此，<b>库欣<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUBG\">枢纽</a>的库存年初至今已消耗约1300万桶，上周跌到2400万桶，是页岩时代的最低季节性水平。</b>现在，存储水平可能接近运营最低水平，俗称“罐底”（tank bottoms）。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca840ea26857f0836d228d616b0acb60\" tg-width=\"958\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>根据美国银行的说法，鉴于目前的现货溢价水平，这些库存中的很大一部分可能用于混合操作和作为管道流动的备用。因此，它们可能<b>无法用于进行WTI合约交割</b>。</p><p>更糟糕的是，随着库存接近运营最低水平，<b>几乎每一个价格信号都在阻止原油流向库欣，这可能会限制再供应</b>。值得一提的是，米德兰WTI原油较库欣的溢价已达1.50美元/桶，限制了向库欣的北向流动。同时，巴肯原油较WTI价差达5美元/桶，表明巴肯原油（Bakken）更有可能绕过库欣直接流入墨西哥湾地区市场。库欣和WTI之间以及巴肯和奈厄布拉勒（Niobrara）之间的价差也会降低炼油商混合WTI原油的意愿。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f78570ff10313fa655c3d23bc424ff11\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>再者，WTI-布伦特原油价差最近触及-9.20美元/桶的多年低点，目前接近-5美元/桶，<b>这将鼓励交易商未来几周出口更多原油，出口量“可能创纪录”</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db22529ef5b8f2c6378d38b87f102aca\" tg-width=\"984\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>虽然炼油厂的运转变化应该能短期内缓解库欣库存的一些压力，但过后的库存形势仍然很紧张。</p><p>从历史上看，库欣库存滞后WTI日历价差大约2个月。虽然这种关系在正常库存水平期间可能呈线性关系，但从理论上讲，日历价差应该随着库欣库存见底以抛物线速度增加（更多现货溢价），然后随着库欣库存增加以抛物线速度下降（期货升水）。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38c8f57f6cd1997fab8dd4de5d8f8645\" tg-width=\"955\" tg-height=\"409\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>所有这一切都意味着，<b>“近月WTI原油有可能在今年上半年出现融涨”</b>，类似于2020年4月20日WTI原油跌至负40美元/桶时的极端情况，当时全球经济停摆，到期交割的原油无处可去，近月合约持有人被迫出钱让其他人帮忙交割，这才导致价格跌至负值。只是这一次将是反方向。</p><p>提醒一下，WTI原油与布伦特原油不同，WTI合约具有实物交割机制，每月强制实物市场和期货市场趋同。2020年4月，这种趋同在WTI 5月合约到期前充分体现，无法收货的多头被迫以负价平仓。现在，<b>美国银行警告说，“市场格局已经反转”</b>。</p><p>换言之，由于库存处于非常低的水平，根据WTI合约进行交割的能力可能会降低。美国今年上半年的供应增长有限且将原油送入库欣的激励措施有限，库存可能会在低位徘徊。与此同时，鉴于市场在短期内极度缺乏供应，<b>美国银行认为，“随着WTI合约每月到期，出现空头挤压的风险增加”，同时，WTI原油相对于其他北美等级原油走强以鼓励更多原油流向库欣枢纽的风险也会增加。</b></p><p><b>简而言之，在2020年4月的历史性负油价事件中，由于强制平仓，油价首次跌至负价，而在接下来的几周内，我们可能会看到相反的情况：随着空头争相买入，却无法以任何价格获得原油用于交割，历史性熔断一幕有可能发生。</b></p></body></html>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美银：我们即将见证一场历史性原油大逼空！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-22 11:17 北京时间 <a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/details/91658><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>还记得2020年4月那场负油价噩梦吗？这次可能是反过来......不少分析师一再警告，由于原油产量增长有限以及炼油和出口需求强劲，未来几个月美国库欣地区库存将趋紧。而现在，正如华尔街多家看涨原油的银行所警告的那样，乌克兰冲突显然给供应带来了更大的风险。美国银行大宗商品团队周一向专业客户发布了一份题为“库欣缓冲库存所剩无几”（Cushing's Cushion Wears Thin）的必读报告。报告...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/91658\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d60a2dcd6ade78c11696b80e541ad68","relate_stocks":{"USO":"美国原油ETF"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/91658","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166323813","content_text":"还记得2020年4月那场负油价噩梦吗？这次可能是反过来......不少分析师一再警告，由于原油产量增长有限以及炼油和出口需求强劲，未来几个月美国库欣地区库存将趋紧。而现在，正如华尔街多家看涨原油的银行所警告的那样，乌克兰冲突显然给供应带来了更大的风险。美国银行大宗商品团队周一向专业客户发布了一份题为“库欣缓冲库存所剩无几”（Cushing's Cushion Wears Thin）的必读报告。报告指出，WTI原油日历价差最近飙升至十年高位（1个月期和3个月期合约的价差为11.70美元），虽然现已有所稳定，但仍然处于高位，这不利于鼓励交易商储存石油。因此，库欣枢纽的库存年初至今已消耗约1300万桶，上周跌到2400万桶，是页岩时代的最低季节性水平。现在，存储水平可能接近运营最低水平，俗称“罐底”（tank bottoms）。根据美国银行的说法，鉴于目前的现货溢价水平，这些库存中的很大一部分可能用于混合操作和作为管道流动的备用。因此，它们可能无法用于进行WTI合约交割。更糟糕的是，随着库存接近运营最低水平，几乎每一个价格信号都在阻止原油流向库欣，这可能会限制再供应。值得一提的是，米德兰WTI原油较库欣的溢价已达1.50美元/桶，限制了向库欣的北向流动。同时，巴肯原油较WTI价差达5美元/桶，表明巴肯原油（Bakken）更有可能绕过库欣直接流入墨西哥湾地区市场。库欣和WTI之间以及巴肯和奈厄布拉勒（Niobrara）之间的价差也会降低炼油商混合WTI原油的意愿。再者，WTI-布伦特原油价差最近触及-9.20美元/桶的多年低点，目前接近-5美元/桶，这将鼓励交易商未来几周出口更多原油，出口量“可能创纪录”。虽然炼油厂的运转变化应该能短期内缓解库欣库存的一些压力，但过后的库存形势仍然很紧张。从历史上看，库欣库存滞后WTI日历价差大约2个月。虽然这种关系在正常库存水平期间可能呈线性关系，但从理论上讲，日历价差应该随着库欣库存见底以抛物线速度增加（更多现货溢价），然后随着库欣库存增加以抛物线速度下降（期货升水）。所有这一切都意味着，“近月WTI原油有可能在今年上半年出现融涨”，类似于2020年4月20日WTI原油跌至负40美元/桶时的极端情况，当时全球经济停摆，到期交割的原油无处可去，近月合约持有人被迫出钱让其他人帮忙交割，这才导致价格跌至负值。只是这一次将是反方向。提醒一下，WTI原油与布伦特原油不同，WTI合约具有实物交割机制，每月强制实物市场和期货市场趋同。2020年4月，这种趋同在WTI 5月合约到期前充分体现，无法收货的多头被迫以负价平仓。现在，美国银行警告说，“市场格局已经反转”。换言之，由于库存处于非常低的水平，根据WTI合约进行交割的能力可能会降低。美国今年上半年的供应增长有限且将原油送入库欣的激励措施有限，库存可能会在低位徘徊。与此同时，鉴于市场在短期内极度缺乏供应，美国银行认为，“随着WTI合约每月到期，出现空头挤压的风险增加”，同时，WTI原油相对于其他北美等级原油走强以鼓励更多原油流向库欣枢纽的风险也会增加。简而言之，在2020年4月的历史性负油价事件中，由于强制平仓，油价首次跌至负价，而在接下来的几周内，我们可能会看到相反的情况：随着空头争相买入，却无法以任何价格获得原油用于交割，历史性熔断一幕有可能发生。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"USO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3970,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":334412532,"gmtCreate":1610942749226,"gmtModify":1703747214374,"author":{"id":"3536976320565511","authorId":"3536976320565511","name":"中国你把你真实的小区网线","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81bfc0ebd9552e03232cfc6385d6e0a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3536976320565511","authorIdStr":"3536976320565511"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"什么是核心核心里头还有核心核心，无限极的核心。","listText":"什么是核心核心里头还有核心核心，无限极的核心。","text":"什么是核心核心里头还有核心核心，无限极的核心。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/334412532","repostId":"1123943249","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3446,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":334401170,"gmtCreate":1610935799890,"gmtModify":1703747164130,"author":{"id":"3536976320565511","authorId":"3536976320565511","name":"中国你把你真实的小区网线","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a81bfc0ebd9552e03232cfc6385d6e0a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3536976320565511","authorIdStr":"3536976320565511"},"themes":[],"htmlText":" 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