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  摩根大通：关于伊朗局势，投资者有两大误解
  摩根大通资产管理主席Cembalest最新报告直指市场两大危险误判：美国能源独立并非抵御霍尔木兹封锁的"防火墙"——全球油价飙升将直接穿透美国市场；而伊朗已从当前局势中得出结论，以霍尔木兹海峡 "挟持全球经济"这张牌比预期奏效得多，根本不存在被迫迅速让步的压力。股市表面平静之下，系统性风险正被严重低估。
  摩根大通：关于伊朗局势，投资者有两大误解
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">美国能源</a>独立可抵御外部冲击</h2>\n<p>Cembalest在报告中直接点名这一市场共识：&#34;美国可以免受霍尔木兹海峡封锁市场影响的说法，基本上是错误的。美国的化石燃料独立性，并不像你想象的那样构成经济防火墙。&#34;</p>\n<p>支撑这一结论的，并非理论推演，而是当前市场的实际走势。尽管外界普遍聚焦于欧洲和亚洲国家因海峡封锁所面临的风险，<strong>但现实情况是，多种精炼石油产品乃至原油本身，在美国市场的价格涨幅反而更为显著。</strong></p>\n<p>这意味着，即便美国是特定燃料的净出口国，全球能源价格的大幅上涨仍会通过市场机制传导至美国国内，对消费者和企业形成实质性冲击。</p>\n<h2>误解二：伊朗将被迫迅速让步</h2>\n<p>第二个误解在于，市场部分参与者认为，美国的军事压力和经济代价将迫使伊朗尽快重开海峡。Cembalest对此持保留态度。</p>\n<p>他在报告中引用彭博中东经济学家Dina Esfandiary的观点指出，伊朗已经意识到，将全球经济作为人质的策略，其成本比预期更低、效果比预期更好。换言之，伊朗从当前局势中得出的结论是：这一策略出乎意料地奏效。</p>\n<p><strong>Cembalest还列举了多重使局势难以快速收场的结构性因素。</strong>首先，即便海峡明日重开，该地区的石油生产也需要时间才能恢复至冲突前水平。其次，美国、以色列及海湾国家的拦截导弹库存可能已趋于紧张。此外，伊朗在无人机制造领域取得的显著进步，大幅提升了其实施不对称作战的能力。Cembalest在报告中写道：&#34;无人机载荷虽然较小，但只需小型载荷便可对造价昂贵得多的飞机、舰船和雷达系统造成巨大破坏，且无人机单位成本所携带的载荷高于许多导弹系统。&#34;</p>\n<p>美国海军的扫雷能力同样令人担忧——目前舰队中仅剩四艘老旧扫雷舰，且全部计划退役。</p>\n<h2>股市平静背后的隐忧</h2>\n<p>尽管上述风险持续积聚，美国股市在此轮冲突中的表现仍相对稳健，跌幅明显小于去年关税风波、2022年俄乌冲突爆发以及新冠疫情初期等历史性冲击。</p>\n<p>Hightower Advisors首席投资策略师Stephanie Link在接受MarketWatch采访时表示，美股的韧性“令人着迷”，并将其归因于华尔街分析师上调盈利预期以及美国劳动力市场保持稳健两大因素。</p>\n<p>不过，Link同时提示了尾部风险：“如果冲突持续时间超过几个月，我认为对市场和美国经济的影响肯定会更加严峻。”</p>\n<p>Cembalest在报告开篇以斯蒂芬·金小说《撒冷镇》作比喻，暗示当前局势的走向可能与最初预期大相径庭——主角怀着良好意愿前往对抗邪恶，最终却以小镇被夷为平地、所有人境况更糟收场。这一隐喻，或许正是他对整个伊朗局势最为精炼的判断。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>摩根大通：关于伊朗局势，投资者有两大误解</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n摩根大通：关于伊朗局势，投资者有两大误解\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-07 15:24</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>美国经济并非如许多投资者所认为的那样，能够免受战争引发的能源冲击。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>资产与财富管理市场及投资策略主席Michael Cembalest在本周一发布的最新报告中指出，围绕伊朗冲突，市场上流传着两个被广泛接受却存在根本性偏差的判断：</p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>其一，美国经济可以凭借能源独立地位抵御霍尔木兹<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002320\">海峡</a>封锁带来的冲击；</p>\n<p>其二，伊朗重开海峡的压力足以迫使局势迅速缓和。</p>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Cembalest认为，这两种判断均过于乐观。上述报告发布之际，特朗普要求伊朗立即重开霍尔木兹海峡的最新期限将于周二晚间届满。与此同时，美国股市在此轮冲突中的跌幅相对有限，部分投资者将此解读为市场对局势的“免疫”信号。但Cembalest的分析显示，这种平静或许建立在对风险的系统性低估之上。</p>\n<h2>误解一：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">美国能源</a>独立可抵御外部冲击</h2>\n<p>Cembalest在报告中直接点名这一市场共识：&#34;美国可以免受霍尔木兹海峡封锁市场影响的说法，基本上是错误的。美国的化石燃料独立性，并不像你想象的那样构成经济防火墙。&#34;</p>\n<p>支撑这一结论的，并非理论推演，而是当前市场的实际走势。尽管外界普遍聚焦于欧洲和亚洲国家因海峡封锁所面临的风险，<strong>但现实情况是，多种精炼石油产品乃至原油本身，在美国市场的价格涨幅反而更为显著。</strong></p>\n<p>这意味着，即便美国是特定燃料的净出口国，全球能源价格的大幅上涨仍会通过市场机制传导至美国国内，对消费者和企业形成实质性冲击。</p>\n<h2>误解二：伊朗将被迫迅速让步</h2>\n<p>第二个误解在于，市场部分参与者认为，美国的军事压力和经济代价将迫使伊朗尽快重开海峡。Cembalest对此持保留态度。</p>\n<p>他在报告中引用彭博中东经济学家Dina Esfandiary的观点指出，伊朗已经意识到，将全球经济作为人质的策略，其成本比预期更低、效果比预期更好。换言之，伊朗从当前局势中得出的结论是：这一策略出乎意料地奏效。</p>\n<p><strong>Cembalest还列举了多重使局势难以快速收场的结构性因素。</strong>首先，即便海峡明日重开，该地区的石油生产也需要时间才能恢复至冲突前水平。其次，美国、以色列及海湾国家的拦截导弹库存可能已趋于紧张。此外，伊朗在无人机制造领域取得的显著进步，大幅提升了其实施不对称作战的能力。Cembalest在报告中写道：&#34;无人机载荷虽然较小，但只需小型载荷便可对造价昂贵得多的飞机、舰船和雷达系统造成巨大破坏，且无人机单位成本所携带的载荷高于许多导弹系统。&#34;</p>\n<p>美国海军的扫雷能力同样令人担忧——目前舰队中仅剩四艘老旧扫雷舰，且全部计划退役。</p>\n<h2>股市平静背后的隐忧</h2>\n<p>尽管上述风险持续积聚，美国股市在此轮冲突中的表现仍相对稳健，跌幅明显小于去年关税风波、2022年俄乌冲突爆发以及新冠疫情初期等历史性冲击。</p>\n<p>Hightower Advisors首席投资策略师Stephanie Link在接受MarketWatch采访时表示，美股的韧性“令人着迷”，并将其归因于华尔街分析师上调盈利预期以及美国劳动力市场保持稳健两大因素。</p>\n<p>不过，Link同时提示了尾部风险：“如果冲突持续时间超过几个月，我认为对市场和美国经济的影响肯定会更加严峻。”</p>\n<p>Cembalest在报告开篇以斯蒂芬·金小说《撒冷镇》作比喻，暗示当前局势的走向可能与最初预期大相径庭——主角怀着良好意愿前往对抗邪恶，最终却以小镇被夷为平地、所有人境况更糟收场。这一隐喻，或许正是他对整个伊朗局势最为精炼的判断。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ecccb954c9a03cd26d576ebec5c96d6","relate_stocks":{"IE00BDRTCR15.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC A","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU0942090050.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD)  INC","LU2456880835.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AT\" (USD) ACC","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU2552382215.SGD":"WELLINGTON US BRAND POWER \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0265550946.USD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL ENHANCED EQUITY YIELD \"A5\" (USD) INC","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0882574139.USD":"富达环球消费行业基金A 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ACC","LU0211327993.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJTD4V19.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US LONG SHORT EQUITY \"A1\" (USD) ACC","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","LU2237443382.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA USD","LU0211326839.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","JPM":"摩根大通","LU0345770993.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2381873111.SGD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL EQUITY HIGH INCOME \"A6\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU0211331839.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL GLB DISCOVERY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0211326755.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2237443465.HKD":"abrdn SICAV I -  GLOBAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU1496350502.SGD":"FRANKLIN DIVERSIFIED DYNAMIC \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0683600562.USD":"AB SELECT US EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","LU2237443622.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc USD","LU2023250843.SGD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AT Acc H2-SGD","LU2552382058.USD":"WELLINGTON US BRAND POWER \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BLSP4452.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis SGD-H Plus","BK4566":"资本集团","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU0238689110.USD":"贝莱德环球动力股票基金"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3769372","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2625898096","content_text":"美国经济并非如许多投资者所认为的那样，能够免受战争引发的能源冲击。\n摩根大通资产与财富管理市场及投资策略主席Michael Cembalest在本周一发布的最新报告中指出，围绕伊朗冲突，市场上流传着两个被广泛接受却存在根本性偏差的判断：\n\n其一，美国经济可以凭借能源独立地位抵御霍尔木兹海峡封锁带来的冲击；\n其二，伊朗重开海峡的压力足以迫使局势迅速缓和。\n\nCembalest认为，这两种判断均过于乐观。上述报告发布之际，特朗普要求伊朗立即重开霍尔木兹海峡的最新期限将于周二晚间届满。与此同时，美国股市在此轮冲突中的跌幅相对有限，部分投资者将此解读为市场对局势的“免疫”信号。但Cembalest的分析显示，这种平静或许建立在对风险的系统性低估之上。\n误解一：美国能源独立可抵御外部冲击\nCembalest在报告中直接点名这一市场共识：\"美国可以免受霍尔木兹海峡封锁市场影响的说法，基本上是错误的。美国的化石燃料独立性，并不像你想象的那样构成经济防火墙。\"\n支撑这一结论的，并非理论推演，而是当前市场的实际走势。尽管外界普遍聚焦于欧洲和亚洲国家因海峡封锁所面临的风险，但现实情况是，多种精炼石油产品乃至原油本身，在美国市场的价格涨幅反而更为显著。\n这意味着，即便美国是特定燃料的净出口国，全球能源价格的大幅上涨仍会通过市场机制传导至美国国内，对消费者和企业形成实质性冲击。\n误解二：伊朗将被迫迅速让步\n第二个误解在于，市场部分参与者认为，美国的军事压力和经济代价将迫使伊朗尽快重开海峡。Cembalest对此持保留态度。\n他在报告中引用彭博中东经济学家Dina Esfandiary的观点指出，伊朗已经意识到，将全球经济作为人质的策略，其成本比预期更低、效果比预期更好。换言之，伊朗从当前局势中得出的结论是：这一策略出乎意料地奏效。\nCembalest还列举了多重使局势难以快速收场的结构性因素。首先，即便海峡明日重开，该地区的石油生产也需要时间才能恢复至冲突前水平。其次，美国、以色列及海湾国家的拦截导弹库存可能已趋于紧张。此外，伊朗在无人机制造领域取得的显著进步，大幅提升了其实施不对称作战的能力。Cembalest在报告中写道：\"无人机载荷虽然较小，但只需小型载荷便可对造价昂贵得多的飞机、舰船和雷达系统造成巨大破坏，且无人机单位成本所携带的载荷高于许多导弹系统。\"\n美国海军的扫雷能力同样令人担忧——目前舰队中仅剩四艘老旧扫雷舰，且全部计划退役。\n股市平静背后的隐忧\n尽管上述风险持续积聚，美国股市在此轮冲突中的表现仍相对稳健，跌幅明显小于去年关税风波、2022年俄乌冲突爆发以及新冠疫情初期等历史性冲击。\nHightower Advisors首席投资策略师Stephanie Link在接受MarketWatch采访时表示，美股的韧性“令人着迷”，并将其归因于华尔街分析师上调盈利预期以及美国劳动力市场保持稳健两大因素。\n不过，Link同时提示了尾部风险：“如果冲突持续时间超过几个月，我认为对市场和美国经济的影响肯定会更加严峻。”\nCembalest在报告开篇以斯蒂芬·金小说《撒冷镇》作比喻，暗示当前局势的走向可能与最初预期大相径庭——主角怀着良好意愿前往对抗邪恶，最终却以小镇被夷为平地、所有人境况更糟收场。这一隐喻，或许正是他对整个伊朗局势最为精炼的判断。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"JPM":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}