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- CheehowCheehow
  ·2021-09-17
  $MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST(ME8U.SI)$ so shiock, why up ah?
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- CheehowCheehow
  ·2021-07-25
  Great, DC solutions will continue to power innovations
  Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider
  Summary IBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.
  Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider
  1,382 评论
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- CheehowCheehow
  ·2021-07-22
  Huat ah
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,711 评论
  7
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- CheehowCheehow
  ·2021-07-21
  Great comeback
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,110 评论
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- CheehowCheehow
  ·2021-07-19
  Comment
  Chart of the Day: SG Q1 GDP growth to climb 1.3% above pre-pandemic levels
  The government's cautious approach in reopening boosted its growth. This chart from Manulife shows
  Chart of the Day: SG Q1 GDP growth to climb 1.3% above pre-pandemic levels
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- CheehowCheehow
  ·2021-07-19
  Great
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,196 评论
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- CheehowCheehow
  ·2021-07-15
  Good good good up up up
  Goldman Sees Oil Price Spiking On UAE/OPEC+ Deal
  Oil suffered its biggest drop in 2.5 months today after the EIA reported that in the latest week, ga
  Goldman Sees Oil Price Spiking On UAE/OPEC+ Deal
  1,934 评论
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- CheehowCheehow
  ·2021-07-15
  TSMC wow!!
  Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Reports Earnings Thursday. Here’s What to Expect.
  With any luck, investors will get some fresh insight about the global chip shortage Thursday when Ta
  Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Reports Earnings Thursday. Here’s What to Expect.
  1,059 评论
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- CheehowCheehow
  ·2021-06-12
  $Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S$(HST.SI)$Whyno up? Fast fast go up!!
  1,390 1
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- CheehowCheehow
  ·2021-02-28
  $Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S$(HST.SI)$zzzzzzzzz
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target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ME8U.SI\">$MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST(ME8U.SI)$</a> so shiock, why up ah?","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ME8U.SI\">$MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST(ME8U.SI)$</a> so shiock, why up ah?","text":"$MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST(ME8U.SI)$ so shiock, why up ah?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/884971404","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1641,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177143358,"gmtCreate":1627189549374,"gmtModify":1631891461286,"author":{"id":"3549668038727602","authorId":"3549668038727602","name":"Cheehow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e3e47e5305e34c6968002ff9c31335a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3549668038727602","authorIdStr":"3549668038727602"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great, DC solutions will continue to power innovations&nbsp;","listText":"Great, DC solutions will continue to power innovations&nbsp;","text":"Great, DC solutions will continue to power innovations","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177143358","repostId":"1176552691","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176552691","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627183789,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176552691?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-25 11:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176552691","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>IBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.</li>\n <li>Prior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.</li>\n <li>More transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c798e0536c6804d44b195f6f349fab5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1044\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Ethan Miller/Getty Images News</span></p>\n<p>International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.</p>\n<p>Although the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.</p>\n<p>What is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.</p>\n<p>Management is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.</p>\n<p><b>Recent Quarterly Results</b></p>\n<p>IBM&nbsp;reported&nbsp;Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.</p>\n<p>Revenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.</p>\n<p>The negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.</p>\n<p>The global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.</p>\n<p>The positive side of the report had Cloud &amp; Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.</p>\n<p>Net cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.</p>\n<p>Since year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.</p>\n<p>Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.</p>\n<p><b>Where IBM Stands Tall</b></p>\n<p>IBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.</p>\n<p>It is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.</p>\n<p>For example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.</p>\n<p>Half of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.</p>\n<p>IBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.</p>\n<p>Eight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ace4f1436fd2697c5ad266b5017e1dd\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"721\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Forbes</span></p>\n<p>It is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.</p>\n<p>However, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.</p>\n<p><b>The Sources Of Potential Growth</b></p>\n<p>Investors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh&nbsp;provided insight&nbsp;into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.</p>\n<blockquote>\n For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Of course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.</p>\n<p>Because hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.</p>\n<p>I reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.</p>\n<p>Investors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.</p>\n<p>The following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fc85156e70f6caf8ae809f76126a723\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Company reports / Chart by Author</span></p>\n<p>Aside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.</p>\n<p>Early in 2019, IBM&nbsp;introduced&nbsp;the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.</p>\n<p>Pardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.</p>\n<p>For additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to&nbsp;my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”</p>\n<p><b>Understanding Kyndryl</b></p>\n<p>Once&nbsp;Kyndryl&nbsp;is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.</p>\n<p>The split will&nbsp;transform&nbsp;IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.</p>\n<p>Global Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will&nbsp;account&nbsp;for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.</p>\n<p>IBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.</p>\n<p>Initially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.</p>\n<p>What remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.</p>\n<p><b>Has IBM Turned The Corner?</b></p>\n<p>Anyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60cc8b82052f97dd449205999ee30711\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Data from ycharts / chart by author</span></p>\n<p>While this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.</p>\n<p>In 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.</p>\n<p>The CEO&nbsp;recently stated&nbsp;he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.</p>\n<p><b>Debt And Dividend</b></p>\n<p>While investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.</p>\n<p>The company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b73e613157c486a5f5e8306546121971\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: IBM Presentation</span></p>\n<p>IBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.</p>\n<p><b>Is IBM Stock Overvalued?</b></p>\n<p>IBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.</p>\n<p>IBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.</p>\n<p>The 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.</p>\n<p>I believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.</p>\n<p><b>Is IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?</b></p>\n<p>IBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.</p>\n<p>That the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.</p>\n<p>If management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.</p>\n<p>IBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.</p>\n<p>All considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.</p>\n<p>I think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-25 11:29 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440996-is-ibm-stock-undervalued-overvalued><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nIBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.\nPrior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440996-is-ibm-stock-undervalued-overvalued\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IBM":"IBM"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440996-is-ibm-stock-undervalued-overvalued","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176552691","content_text":"Summary\n\nIBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.\nPrior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.\nMore transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.\n\nEthan Miller/Getty Images News\nInternational Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.\nAlthough the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.\nWhat is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.\nManagement is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.\nRecent Quarterly Results\nIBM reported Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.\nRevenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.\nThe negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.\nThe global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.\nThe positive side of the report had Cloud & Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.\nNet cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.\nSince year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.\nManagement guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.\nWhere IBM Stands Tall\nIBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.\nIt is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.\nFor example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.\nHalf of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.\nIBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.\nEight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.\nSource: Forbes\nIt is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.\nHowever, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.\nThe Sources Of Potential Growth\nInvestors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh provided insight into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.\n\n For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall.\n\nOf course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.\nBecause hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.\nI reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm forecasts a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.\nInvestors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.\nThe following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.\nSource: Company reports / Chart by Author\nAside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.\nEarly in 2019, IBM introduced the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.\nPardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence forecasts a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.\nFor additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”\nUnderstanding Kyndryl\nOnce Kyndryl is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.\nThe split will transform IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.\nGlobal Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will account for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.\nIBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.\nInitially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.\nWhat remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.\nHas IBM Turned The Corner?\nAnyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.\nSource: Data from ycharts / chart by author\nWhile this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.\nIn 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.\nThe CEO recently stated he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.\nDebt And Dividend\nWhile investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.\nThe company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.\nSource: IBM Presentation\nIBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.\nIs IBM Stock Overvalued?\nIBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.\nIBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.\nThe 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.\nI believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.\nIs IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?\nIBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.\nThat the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.\nIf management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.\nIBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.\nAll considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.\nI think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"IBM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1382,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176478268,"gmtCreate":1626914092754,"gmtModify":1631891461291,"author":{"id":"3549668038727602","authorId":"3549668038727602","name":"Cheehow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e3e47e5305e34c6968002ff9c31335a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3549668038727602","authorIdStr":"3549668038727602"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Huat ah","listText":"Huat ah","text":"Huat ah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176478268","repostId":"2153477496","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1711,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178515852,"gmtCreate":1626827333176,"gmtModify":1631891461293,"author":{"id":"3549668038727602","authorId":"3549668038727602","name":"Cheehow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e3e47e5305e34c6968002ff9c31335a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3549668038727602","authorIdStr":"3549668038727602"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great comeback","listText":"Great comeback","text":"Great comeback","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178515852","repostId":"2153924256","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1110,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173485620,"gmtCreate":1626680042660,"gmtModify":1631891461295,"author":{"id":"3549668038727602","authorId":"3549668038727602","name":"Cheehow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e3e47e5305e34c6968002ff9c31335a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3549668038727602","authorIdStr":"3549668038727602"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173485620","repostId":"1107333185","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107333185","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626678901,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107333185?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-19 15:15","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Chart of the Day: SG Q1 GDP growth to climb 1.3% above pre-pandemic levels","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107333185","media":"Singapore Business","summary":"The government's cautious approach in reopening boosted its growth.\n\nThis chart from Manulife shows ","content":"<blockquote>\n <b><i>The government's cautious approach in reopening boosted its growth.</i></b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>This chart from Manulife shows that the final first-quarter&nbsp;(Q1) gross domestic product growth of Singapore was revised upward from 0.2% to a higher-than-expected 1.3% (on a year-on-year&nbsp;basis), owing to stronger growth in both the manufacturing and services sectors.</p>\n<p>Although the economic recovery suffered a setback recently due to a jump in COVID-19 cases and the imposition of tighter mobility restrictions, which weighed on the services sector; there are still some reasons to be hopeful.</p>\n<p>Singapore’s economic output has already returned to pre-pandemic levels in Q1 ahead of its ASEAN peers, thanks to stronger fiscal and credit support measures; the government’s more cautious approach toward reopening the economy also helped. Crucially, the city-state made significant progress with its vaccination program.</p>\n<p>If the current pace of vaccination is sustained, it could have 70% of its population fully vaccinated by August and could potentially fully reopen the economy much sooner than its neighbours.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26fae5f9851655899b2357cbb7fab1bc\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"411\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>","source":"lsy1618986048053","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chart of the Day: SG Q1 GDP growth to climb 1.3% above pre-pandemic levels</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChart of the Day: SG Q1 GDP growth to climb 1.3% above pre-pandemic levels\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-19 15:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://sbr.com.sg/news/chart-day-sg-q1-gdp-growth-climb-13-above-pre-pandemic-levels><strong>Singapore Business</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The government's cautious approach in reopening boosted its growth.\n\nThis chart from Manulife shows that the final first-quarter (Q1) gross domestic product growth of Singapore was revised upward from...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://sbr.com.sg/news/chart-day-sg-q1-gdp-growth-climb-13-above-pre-pandemic-levels\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"STI.SI":"富时新加坡海峡指数"},"source_url":"https://sbr.com.sg/news/chart-day-sg-q1-gdp-growth-climb-13-above-pre-pandemic-levels","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107333185","content_text":"The government's cautious approach in reopening boosted its growth.\n\nThis chart from Manulife shows that the final first-quarter (Q1) gross domestic product growth of Singapore was revised upward from 0.2% to a higher-than-expected 1.3% (on a year-on-year basis), owing to stronger growth in both the manufacturing and services sectors.\nAlthough the economic recovery suffered a setback recently due to a jump in COVID-19 cases and the imposition of tighter mobility restrictions, which weighed on the services sector; there are still some reasons to be hopeful.\nSingapore’s economic output has already returned to pre-pandemic levels in Q1 ahead of its ASEAN peers, thanks to stronger fiscal and credit support measures; the government’s more cautious approach toward reopening the economy also helped. Crucially, the city-state made significant progress with its vaccination program.\nIf the current pace of vaccination is sustained, it could have 70% of its population fully vaccinated by August and could potentially fully reopen the economy much sooner than its neighbours.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"STI.SI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1390,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173485962,"gmtCreate":1626679975256,"gmtModify":1631891461300,"author":{"id":"3549668038727602","authorId":"3549668038727602","name":"Cheehow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e3e47e5305e34c6968002ff9c31335a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3549668038727602","authorIdStr":"3549668038727602"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173485962","repostId":"1111084715","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1196,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":147064461,"gmtCreate":1626321076753,"gmtModify":1631891461301,"author":{"id":"3549668038727602","authorId":"3549668038727602","name":"Cheehow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e3e47e5305e34c6968002ff9c31335a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3549668038727602","authorIdStr":"3549668038727602"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good good good up up up","listText":"Good good good up up up","text":"Good good good up up up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/147064461","repostId":"1122758076","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122758076","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626316880,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122758076?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-15 10:41","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Goldman Sees Oil Price Spiking On UAE/OPEC+ Deal","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122758076","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Oil suffered its biggest drop in 2.5 months today after the EIA reported that in the latest week, ga","content":"<p>Oil suffered its biggest drop in 2.5 months today after the EIA reported that in the latest week, gasoline demand in the US unexpectedly tumbled by 760,000 barrels a day from the record 10 million barrels a day a week, to 9.28 million barrels a day to get back to levels in late June.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96a51307958cb16bc6d3451c273dc614\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"662\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">While algos focused on the sharp drop, what they ignored was that the number was largely meaningless, since the reporting week included July 5, a day off for Americans. Additionally, the EIA’s estimate, known as product supplied, is derived from other data rather than being a direct measurement of consumption. Since that method often leads to erratic numbers, some observers prefer to use the 4-week rolling average. That measure was 9.485 million barrels a day, which was about equal to the same week in 2019</p>\n<p>None of that mattered, however, as CTAs quickly joined in the selling frenzy and completely erasing the earlier jump on the far more important news of an OPEC+ deal.</p>\n<p>Just how important was the Reuters report that the UAE and Saudi Arabia are close to reaching a production agreement, one which sees both the higher baseline requested by the UAE (of 3.65 mb/d starting in April 2022) as well as an extension of the output agreement requested by Saudi (through December 2022). Important enough that in a note released late on Wednesday, Goldman said that the deal would remove the low-probability tail risks of potential price war, and \"<b>represents $2 to $4/bbl upside risk to our $80/bbl summer and $75/bbl 2022 Brent price forecasts.\"</b></p>\n<p>In the note from Goldman commodity analysts Damien Courvalin and Jeff Currie, the two also write that the expected agreement “as the ﬁrst of likely four potential bullish supply catalysts over the coming month” that would more than offset higher North American production. Additionally, although some OPEC+ details remain uncertain, like August and September quotas or baselines of other countries, “these are of limited magnitude and importance to the global oil market outlook, which the bank continues to see as supportive of higher oil prices”</p>\n<p>Piling on the bullish cash, Courvalin writes that an OPEC+ deal that offers a higher baseline for the UAE, as well as an extension of output agreement through December 2022 - such as the one being contemplated -&nbsp; would be bullish relative to Goldman’s base case</p>\n<p>And speaking of Goldman's forecasts, the bank had assumed a 500kb/d ramp-up starting in August as well as a gradually rising UAE baseline from 3.17m b/d to 3.3m b/d in August to 3.65m b/d by the end of 1Q 2022. As a result, such a deal would imply downside risk to its OPEC+ production forecast of 400k-600k b/d on average for 3Q 2021-1Q 2022, depending on whether the lack of August production hike is compensated for in September. Needless to say, that too is bullish for the price of oil... and yet one look at the collapse in oil prices today and one would be left shocked at just how dumb the algos have become.</p>\n<p>Finally, it's not just the UAE/OPEC+ deal that makes Goldman's commodities team hopeful - the bank’s other three potential bullish supply catalysts are listed as:-</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Upcoming shale earnings season, which may reaffirm greater incentive toward returning cash to shareholders over production growth</li>\n <li>That progress on the U.S. reaching an agreement with Iran has stalled, setting back the potential ramp up of exports</li>\n <li>Bank’s view that consensus expectations for global production outside of North America and core-OPEC remain too optimistic</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Below we excerpt from the full note:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>The UAE and Saudi Arabia appear close to reaching a production agreement, with Reuters reporting progress towards a deal that would allow for both the higher baseline requested by the UAE (of 3.65 mb/d starting in April 2022) as well as an extension of the output agreement requested by Saudi (through December 2022).<b>We assume that the such a deal - if conﬁrmed - would likely come alongside a gradual 0.4 mb/d monthly ramp-up in production through December 2021, as all OPEC+ members had already supported this decision.</b></li>\n <li>Such an agreement would help bridge the (modest) divide between both countries and<b>help remove the (low probability) OPEC+ tail risks of a potential price war or insufﬁcient production growth, as we expected.</b>While some details remain uncertain, like the August and September quotas or the baseline of other countries, these are of limited magnitude and importance to the global oil market outlook,<b>which we continue to see as supportive of higher oil prices.</b></li>\n <li>Importantly,<b>such an OPEC+ agreement would be bullish relative to our base-case, as we had assumed (1) a 0.5 mb/d ramp-up starting in August as well as (2) a gradually rising UAE baseline from 3.17 mb/d to 3.3 mb/d in August to 3.65 mb/d by the end of 1Q22 (given its clear inequity).</b>As a result, a deal as described above would<b>imply downside risk to our OPEC+ production forecast of 0.4 to 0.6 mb/d on average for 3Q21-1Q22</b>(depending on whether the lack of August production hike is compensated for in September).</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47c75c93814aad90865576eeb1666992\" tg-width=\"651\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><u><b>All else equal, this would represent $2 to $4/bbl upside risk to our $80/bbl summer and $75/bbl 2022 Brent price forecasts.</b></u>As a result,&nbsp;<b>we believe that risks to our bullish oil price forecasts are skewed to the upside, with the catalyst for such a move higher shifting from the demand to the supply side</b>. While our bullish view this year had been driven by our well above consensus demand growth forecast, this is no longer the case with (1) the sharp rebound in global oil demand that has taken place since May, from 95 to 98 mb/d currently and near our 99 mb/d end of summer forecast, mostly played out, with (2) the IEA expecting similar peak summer demand, and with (3) the EM vaccine led demand uplift set to only play out gradually through 1Q22.</p>\n<p>A shift in market focus to the supply will make increasingly evident that the industry’s costs have reset sharply higher, due to (1) poor accumulated returns of the past 5 years, (2) the inﬂationary impact of internalizing carbon emissions and (3) the rising uncertainty and pessimism on long-term oil demand.&nbsp;<b>As a result, we initiate a new trade recommendation to be long Dec-22 Brent forwards, currently trading at $67.06/bbl. This entry point is below our Dec-22 spot forecast of $75/bbl due to backwardation and further offers a proxy trade for a re-setting higher of the oil market’s marginal costs.</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Sees Oil Price Spiking On UAE/OPEC+ Deal</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Sees Oil Price Spiking On UAE/OPEC+ Deal\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-15 10:41 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-sees-oil-price-spiking-uaeopec-deal><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Oil suffered its biggest drop in 2.5 months today after the EIA reported that in the latest week, gasoline demand in the US unexpectedly tumbled by 760,000 barrels a day from the record 10 million ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-sees-oil-price-spiking-uaeopec-deal\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-sees-oil-price-spiking-uaeopec-deal","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122758076","content_text":"Oil suffered its biggest drop in 2.5 months today after the EIA reported that in the latest week, gasoline demand in the US unexpectedly tumbled by 760,000 barrels a day from the record 10 million barrels a day a week, to 9.28 million barrels a day to get back to levels in late June.\nWhile algos focused on the sharp drop, what they ignored was that the number was largely meaningless, since the reporting week included July 5, a day off for Americans. Additionally, the EIA’s estimate, known as product supplied, is derived from other data rather than being a direct measurement of consumption. Since that method often leads to erratic numbers, some observers prefer to use the 4-week rolling average. That measure was 9.485 million barrels a day, which was about equal to the same week in 2019\nNone of that mattered, however, as CTAs quickly joined in the selling frenzy and completely erasing the earlier jump on the far more important news of an OPEC+ deal.\nJust how important was the Reuters report that the UAE and Saudi Arabia are close to reaching a production agreement, one which sees both the higher baseline requested by the UAE (of 3.65 mb/d starting in April 2022) as well as an extension of the output agreement requested by Saudi (through December 2022). Important enough that in a note released late on Wednesday, Goldman said that the deal would remove the low-probability tail risks of potential price war, and \"represents $2 to $4/bbl upside risk to our $80/bbl summer and $75/bbl 2022 Brent price forecasts.\"\nIn the note from Goldman commodity analysts Damien Courvalin and Jeff Currie, the two also write that the expected agreement “as the ﬁrst of likely four potential bullish supply catalysts over the coming month” that would more than offset higher North American production. Additionally, although some OPEC+ details remain uncertain, like August and September quotas or baselines of other countries, “these are of limited magnitude and importance to the global oil market outlook, which the bank continues to see as supportive of higher oil prices”\nPiling on the bullish cash, Courvalin writes that an OPEC+ deal that offers a higher baseline for the UAE, as well as an extension of output agreement through December 2022 - such as the one being contemplated -  would be bullish relative to Goldman’s base case\nAnd speaking of Goldman's forecasts, the bank had assumed a 500kb/d ramp-up starting in August as well as a gradually rising UAE baseline from 3.17m b/d to 3.3m b/d in August to 3.65m b/d by the end of 1Q 2022. As a result, such a deal would imply downside risk to its OPEC+ production forecast of 400k-600k b/d on average for 3Q 2021-1Q 2022, depending on whether the lack of August production hike is compensated for in September. Needless to say, that too is bullish for the price of oil... and yet one look at the collapse in oil prices today and one would be left shocked at just how dumb the algos have become.\nFinally, it's not just the UAE/OPEC+ deal that makes Goldman's commodities team hopeful - the bank’s other three potential bullish supply catalysts are listed as:-\n\nUpcoming shale earnings season, which may reaffirm greater incentive toward returning cash to shareholders over production growth\nThat progress on the U.S. reaching an agreement with Iran has stalled, setting back the potential ramp up of exports\nBank’s view that consensus expectations for global production outside of North America and core-OPEC remain too optimistic\n\nBelow we excerpt from the full note:\n\nThe UAE and Saudi Arabia appear close to reaching a production agreement, with Reuters reporting progress towards a deal that would allow for both the higher baseline requested by the UAE (of 3.65 mb/d starting in April 2022) as well as an extension of the output agreement requested by Saudi (through December 2022).We assume that the such a deal - if conﬁrmed - would likely come alongside a gradual 0.4 mb/d monthly ramp-up in production through December 2021, as all OPEC+ members had already supported this decision.\nSuch an agreement would help bridge the (modest) divide between both countries andhelp remove the (low probability) OPEC+ tail risks of a potential price war or insufﬁcient production growth, as we expected.While some details remain uncertain, like the August and September quotas or the baseline of other countries, these are of limited magnitude and importance to the global oil market outlook,which we continue to see as supportive of higher oil prices.\nImportantly,such an OPEC+ agreement would be bullish relative to our base-case, as we had assumed (1) a 0.5 mb/d ramp-up starting in August as well as (2) a gradually rising UAE baseline from 3.17 mb/d to 3.3 mb/d in August to 3.65 mb/d by the end of 1Q22 (given its clear inequity).As a result, a deal as described above wouldimply downside risk to our OPEC+ production forecast of 0.4 to 0.6 mb/d on average for 3Q21-1Q22(depending on whether the lack of August production hike is compensated for in September).\n\nAll else equal, this would represent $2 to $4/bbl upside risk to our $80/bbl summer and $75/bbl 2022 Brent price forecasts.As a result, we believe that risks to our bullish oil price forecasts are skewed to the upside, with the catalyst for such a move higher shifting from the demand to the supply side. While our bullish view this year had been driven by our well above consensus demand growth forecast, this is no longer the case with (1) the sharp rebound in global oil demand that has taken place since May, from 95 to 98 mb/d currently and near our 99 mb/d end of summer forecast, mostly played out, with (2) the IEA expecting similar peak summer demand, and with (3) the EM vaccine led demand uplift set to only play out gradually through 1Q22.\nA shift in market focus to the supply will make increasingly evident that the industry’s costs have reset sharply higher, due to (1) poor accumulated returns of the past 5 years, (2) the inﬂationary impact of internalizing carbon emissions and (3) the rising uncertainty and pessimism on long-term oil demand. As a result, we initiate a new trade recommendation to be long Dec-22 Brent forwards, currently trading at $67.06/bbl. This entry point is below our Dec-22 spot forecast of $75/bbl due to backwardation and further offers a proxy trade for a re-setting higher of the oil market’s marginal costs.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BZmain":0.9,"CLmain":0.9,"MCLmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1934,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":147065564,"gmtCreate":1626320980458,"gmtModify":1631891461303,"author":{"id":"3549668038727602","authorId":"3549668038727602","name":"Cheehow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e3e47e5305e34c6968002ff9c31335a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3549668038727602","authorIdStr":"3549668038727602"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"TSMC wow!!","listText":"TSMC wow!!","text":"TSMC wow!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/147065564","repostId":"1138248041","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138248041","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626319474,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138248041?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-15 11:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Reports Earnings Thursday. Here’s What to Expect.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138248041","media":"Barron's","summary":"With any luck, investors will get some fresh insight about the global chip shortage Thursday when Ta","content":"<p>With any luck, investors will get some fresh insight about the global chip shortage Thursday when Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing reports earnings—and about whether the company is still on track to pour billions into meeting demand.</p>\n<p>But if the chip maker’s executives stick with their tradition of being tight-lipped, investors might not get much more than the numbers for insight.</p>\n<p>Wall Street has high expectations for Taiwan Semi (ticker: TSM), which is set to release second-quarter results before the opening bell.</p>\n<p>The consensus calls for earnings to grow nearly 13% to NT$5.24 a share on revenue of NT$371.7 billion ($13.3 billion), an increase of 19% compared to the year-ago period. Revenue is all but a lock because Taiwan Semi discloses its monthly figure every month—that sum is about NT$372 billion.</p>\n<p>Earlier this year, Taiwan Semi executives increased the company’s 2021 capital spending plan to $30 billion, from an expected $25 billion to $28 billion—and put the three-year figure at $100 billion.</p>\n<p>The company will divert most of the capital spending cash to building manufacturing capacity for its most advanced processors used by Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Apple (AAPL), and Intel (INTC).</p>\n<p>J.P. Morgan analyst Gokul Hariharan expects Apple to contribute a hefty amount to Taiwan Semi’s sales since Apple’s new iPhone and Mac processors are manufactured by Taiwan chip giant. The analyst didn’t offer an dollar estimate, though.</p>\n<p>Bernstein analyst Mark Li sees a risk for Taiwan Semi in the possible slowing of demand for smartphone and cryptocurrency mining chips. He softened his assessment, however, by pointing out that the company’s older processing manufacturing capacity would be full, and that Apple could be expected to make a big contribution to third-quarter revenue. Li predicts Taiwan Semi may grow revenue about 15% in 2022.</p>\n<p>If Taiwan Semi executives do talk about the future, they could touch on the company’s new 3-nanometer production technology. Intel and Apple may be the first two companies to adopt the technology, according to Nikkei Asia, a financial news website. Mass production is set to begin in 2022, with Intel taking more chip volume than Apple, the report said.</p>\n<p>New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu writes that Intel’s decision to outsource production to Taiwan Semi “remains more tactical than strategic.” Given the report in Nikkei, Intel appears to be adopting the production technology ahead of AMD, Ferragu said.</p>\n<p>Of the analysts that cover Taiwan Semi, 34 rate the stock a Buy, and three have Hold ratings. There are no Sell ratings. The average target price for American depositary receipts is $146.18, which implies upside of about 17%.</p>\n<p>Taiwan Semi shares advanced roughly 90% this year, as the PHLX Semiconductor index, or Sox, gained about 63%.</p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Reports Earnings Thursday. Here’s What to Expect.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Reports Earnings Thursday. Here’s What to Expect.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-15 11:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-earnings-51626299252?mod=hp_LATEST><strong>Barron's</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>With any luck, investors will get some fresh insight about the global chip shortage Thursday when Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing reports earnings—and about whether the company is still on track to...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-earnings-51626299252?mod=hp_LATEST\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSM":"台积电"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-earnings-51626299252?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138248041","content_text":"With any luck, investors will get some fresh insight about the global chip shortage Thursday when Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing reports earnings—and about whether the company is still on track to pour billions into meeting demand.\nBut if the chip maker’s executives stick with their tradition of being tight-lipped, investors might not get much more than the numbers for insight.\nWall Street has high expectations for Taiwan Semi (ticker: TSM), which is set to release second-quarter results before the opening bell.\nThe consensus calls for earnings to grow nearly 13% to NT$5.24 a share on revenue of NT$371.7 billion ($13.3 billion), an increase of 19% compared to the year-ago period. Revenue is all but a lock because Taiwan Semi discloses its monthly figure every month—that sum is about NT$372 billion.\nEarlier this year, Taiwan Semi executives increased the company’s 2021 capital spending plan to $30 billion, from an expected $25 billion to $28 billion—and put the three-year figure at $100 billion.\nThe company will divert most of the capital spending cash to building manufacturing capacity for its most advanced processors used by Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Apple (AAPL), and Intel (INTC).\nJ.P. Morgan analyst Gokul Hariharan expects Apple to contribute a hefty amount to Taiwan Semi’s sales since Apple’s new iPhone and Mac processors are manufactured by Taiwan chip giant. The analyst didn’t offer an dollar estimate, though.\nBernstein analyst Mark Li sees a risk for Taiwan Semi in the possible slowing of demand for smartphone and cryptocurrency mining chips. He softened his assessment, however, by pointing out that the company’s older processing manufacturing capacity would be full, and that Apple could be expected to make a big contribution to third-quarter revenue. Li predicts Taiwan Semi may grow revenue about 15% in 2022.\nIf Taiwan Semi executives do talk about the future, they could touch on the company’s new 3-nanometer production technology. Intel and Apple may be the first two companies to adopt the technology, according to Nikkei Asia, a financial news website. Mass production is set to begin in 2022, with Intel taking more chip volume than Apple, the report said.\nNew Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu writes that Intel’s decision to outsource production to Taiwan Semi “remains more tactical than strategic.” Given the report in Nikkei, Intel appears to be adopting the production technology ahead of AMD, Ferragu said.\nOf the analysts that cover Taiwan Semi, 34 rate the stock a Buy, and three have Hold ratings. There are no Sell ratings. The average target price for American depositary receipts is $146.18, which implies upside of about 17%.\nTaiwan Semi shares advanced roughly 90% this year, as the PHLX Semiconductor index, or Sox, gained about 63%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1059,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":186522010,"gmtCreate":1623513289530,"gmtModify":1631883694676,"author":{"id":"3549668038727602","authorId":"3549668038727602","name":"Cheehow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e3e47e5305e34c6968002ff9c31335a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3549668038727602","authorIdStr":"3549668038727602"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HST.SI\">$Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S$(HST.SI)$</a>Whyno up? 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