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Skyline35
Skyline35
·
04-02 22:44
$SPXW 20260402 6590.0 CALL$
$标普500(.SPX)$
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Skyline35
Skyline35
·
04-02 20:29
👎
100美元油价恐贯穿全年！美银警告：伊朗战争正给全球砸下“滞胀炸弹”
智通财经APP获悉，美国银行分析师预计，由于伊朗战争的影响，即便冲突在几周内结束，全年仍将面临经济增长放缓、通胀上升以及每桶 100 美元的油价。在全球范围内，经济学家也将 GDP 预测下调至 3.1%，并将通胀预期上调至 3.3%。美国银行的分析假设战争将在本月底平息。本周早些时候，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，通胀预期“非常稳定”，并且美联储的“倾向是忽略任何形式的供应冲击”。
100美元油价恐贯穿全年！美银警告：伊朗战争正给全球砸下“滞胀炸弹”
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Skyline35
Skyline35
·
2025-12-03
不叫超买，叫牛市钝化[开心]
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Skyline35
Skyline35
·
2025-12-03
一堆废话，美国会任由它的殖民地日本随便加息？[开心][开心]
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Skyline35
Skyline35
·
2025-11-13
黄金日线M头，即将来临。快跑
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Skyline35
Skyline35
·
2025-11-05
傻瓜，买白银
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Skyline35
Skyline35
·
2025-10-31
如果你把美债的长期图拉出来，那斜率，岂不是美国分分钟要玩儿完[开心]
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Skyline35
Skyline35
·
2025-10-31
如果看斜率就能猜高点的话，比特币和美股多少年前就崩了。。。
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Skyline35
Skyline35
·
2025-10-21
白银是明显的砸盘吸筹，越跌越买
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Skyline35
Skyline35
·
2025-10-14
涨一年才5000？[开心] [开心] [开心] [开心]
现货黄金强势突破4100美元，华尔街大行罕见大幅上调目标价至5000！
现货黄金周一强势突破4100美元/盎司关口，日内大涨逾90美元，涨幅超过2%，续创历史新高。智通财经APP获悉，美国银行最新发布报告，罕见大幅上调对贵金属的中期预期，将2026年黄金目标价上调至5000美元/盎司，白银目标价上调至65美元/盎司。美国银行预计，短期可能出现价格波动或修正，但整体趋势依旧向上。
现货黄金强势突破4100美元，华尔街大行罕见大幅上调目标价至5000！
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$标普500(.SPX)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d1e043ab769f6589f43d2cb993a51a6","width":"879","height":"1505"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/549352423683480","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":154,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":549319229010896,"gmtCreate":1775132975728,"gmtModify":1775132978000,"author":{"id":"3549994723467386","authorId":"3549994723467386","name":"Skyline35","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a48e5e3c03ed544a74ff6cace6a8de0e","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3549994723467386","idStr":"3549994723467386"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👎","listText":"👎","text":"👎","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/549319229010896","repostId":"2624526335","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2624526335","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1775093400,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2624526335?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-02 09:30","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"100美元油价恐贯穿全年！美银警告：伊朗战争正给全球砸下“滞胀炸弹”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2624526335","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，美国银行分析师预计，由于伊朗战争的影响，即便冲突在几周内结束，全年仍将面临经济增长放缓、通胀上升以及每桶 100 美元的油价。在全球范围内，经济学家也将 GDP 预测下调至 3.1%，并将通胀预期上调至 3.3%。美国银行的分析假设战争将在本月底平息。本周早些时候，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，通胀预期“非常稳定”，并且美联储的“倾向是忽略任何形式的供应冲击”。","content":"<html><body><p>智通财经APP获悉，美国银行分析师预计，由于伊朗战争的影响，即便冲突在几周内结束，全年仍将面临经济增长放缓、通胀上升以及每桶 100 美元的油价。</p><p><span>美银经济学家克劳迪奥·伊里戈延及其团队在周三的一份报告中写道，</span>“到目前为止，战争带来的‘红利’是：温和滞胀，”他指的是高通胀与经济增长放缓并存的经济现象。</p><p>经济学家们表示，虽然世界经济对石油的依赖程度有所降低，但对天然气和化肥的敏感度却大大增加。这对欧洲和发展中经济体构成了重大风险。</p><p>伊里戈延写道，<span>“伊朗战争不只是石油冲击——它是一场能源冲击。”</span></p><p>经济学家预测，2026 年美国经济增长将受到 50 个基点的冲击，降至 2.3%。目前的预测显示，2026 年的头条通胀率(Headline inflation)将达到 3.6%，高于此前预测的 2.8%。在全球范围内，经济学家也将 GDP 预测下调至 3.1%，并将通胀预期上调至 3.3%。</p><p>伊里戈延写道：“这与滞胀冲击的特征相吻合。基于我们新的基准假设，即油价在 2026 年余下时间里保持在每桶 100 美元左右，这种冲击对通胀的影响将比对 GDP 增长的影响更早且更显著。”</p><p>美国银行的分析假设战争将在本月底平息。</p><p>然而，伊里戈延写道，如果冲突升级并拖延下去，“能源价格大幅上涨，加之资产价格的大幅调整，其影响可能会导致全球经济陷入衰退局面。”</p><p>经济学家们仍预计美联储今年将降息 50 个基点，但这些降息的时间点已从夏季推迟到了秋季，并承认“这些降息可能无法实现的风险很高”。</p><p>华尔街日益推迟对降息的预期，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>也预测第四季度将有两次降息。</p><p>高盛分析师在周三的一份报告中写道：“劳动力市场正在走软，工资增长已低于与 2% 通胀目标相符的水平，且通胀预期稳定。”</p><p>他们补充道：“在这种背景下，足以引发对持续通胀担忧的石油冲击，可能也会造成重大的经济损害，并可能导致经济衰退。”</p><p>本周早些时候，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，通胀预期“非常稳定”，并且美联储的“倾向是忽略任何形式的供应冲击”。他的言论缓解了市场对今年晚些时候可能意外加息的日益担忧。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>100美元油价恐贯穿全年！美银警告：伊朗战争正给全球砸下“滞胀炸弹”</title>\n<style 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href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1424362.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4588":"碎股","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1424362.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2624526335","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，美国银行分析师预计，由于伊朗战争的影响，即便冲突在几周内结束，全年仍将面临经济增长放缓、通胀上升以及每桶 100 美元的油价。美银经济学家克劳迪奥·伊里戈延及其团队在周三的一份报告中写道，“到目前为止，战争带来的‘红利’是：温和滞胀，”他指的是高通胀与经济增长放缓并存的经济现象。经济学家们表示，虽然世界经济对石油的依赖程度有所降低，但对天然气和化肥的敏感度却大大增加。这对欧洲和发展中经济体构成了重大风险。伊里戈延写道，“伊朗战争不只是石油冲击——它是一场能源冲击。”经济学家预测，2026 年美国经济增长将受到 50 个基点的冲击，降至 2.3%。目前的预测显示，2026 年的头条通胀率(Headline inflation)将达到 3.6%，高于此前预测的 2.8%。在全球范围内，经济学家也将 GDP 预测下调至 3.1%，并将通胀预期上调至 3.3%。伊里戈延写道：“这与滞胀冲击的特征相吻合。基于我们新的基准假设，即油价在 2026 年余下时间里保持在每桶 100 美元左右，这种冲击对通胀的影响将比对 GDP 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[开心] [开心] [开心] ","listText":"涨一年才5000？[开心] [开心] [开心] [开心] ","text":"涨一年才5000？[开心] [开心] [开心] [开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/489041500373672","repostId":"2575288938","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2575288938","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1760396418,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2575288938?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-10-14 07:00","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"现货黄金强势突破4100美元，华尔街大行罕见大幅上调目标价至5000！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2575288938","media":"智通财经","summary":"现货黄金周一强势突破4100美元/盎司关口，日内大涨逾90美元，涨幅超过2%，续创历史新高。智通财经APP获悉，美国银行最新发布报告，罕见大幅上调对贵金属的中期预期，将2026年黄金目标价上调至5000美元/盎司，白银目标价上调至65美元/盎司。美国银行预计，短期可能出现价格波动或修正，但整体趋势依旧向上。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>现货黄金周一强势突破4100美元/盎司关口，日内大涨逾90美元，涨幅超过2%，续创历史新高。今年以来，金价累计上涨近1500美元，年内涨幅超过56%，成为全球金融市场最亮眼的资产之一。</p><p>智通财经APP获悉，美国银行最新发布报告，罕见大幅上调对贵金属的中期预期，将2026年黄金目标价上调至5000美元/盎司，白银目标价上调至65美元/盎司。报告指出，受“供应紧张、政策不确定性与投资需求飙升”三重因素推动，金银价格仍具持续上行空间。</p><p>美国银行大宗商品研究主管Michael Widmer表示，尽管短期内可能受到美联储鹰派立场或贸易政策波动影响，在特朗普政府财政失衡与宏观结构转向的背景下，黄金依旧是投资者首选的避险资产。</p><p>报告预测，若2026年黄金投资需求增加14%，金价可能升至5000美元以上。数据显示，全球黄金ETF资金流入创纪录激增，9月SPDR Gold Shares(GLD.US)与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEMA\">iShares</a> Gold Trust(IAU.US)净流入总额高达140亿美元，同比暴增880%。目前，黄金投资需求已占全球股债市场的5%以上，而两年前这一比例仅为2.8%。</p><p>Widmer指出：“白宫的非传统财政政策路径，包括扩大赤字、加速债务上升、试图缩减经常账户赤字以及在通胀仍维持3%左右的情况下推动降息，整体上将持续支撑金价上行。”</p><p>该行同时指出，若ETF资金流继续增长28%，金价“甚至有望触及6000美元”，但承认这一水平“挑战极高”。</p><p>报告亦强调，白银市场的多重结构性因素将导致供应持续紧张。尽管美国银行预计2026年全球白银总需求将下降11%，主要源于太阳能光伏行业银用量减少，但由于矿产供给跟不上需求，市场将连续第五年处于供应赤字。</p><p>技术进步亦加剧结构变化。报告称，太阳能产业正从高耗银的PERC组件转向TopCon组件，单位用银量下降。而中国为了赶上政策补贴节奏，2025年加速光伏装机建设，提前消耗部分需求。</p><p>更值得关注的是实物白银市场的“极度紧张”。美国银行指出，“由于此前预期关税将出台，大量白银被转移至纽约，导致伦敦市场库存骤减，租赁利率飙升，市场运作明显受阻。”上周伦敦白银租赁利率急升，显示实物供应趋紧。</p><p>美国银行预计，短期可能出现价格波动或修正，但整体趋势依旧向上。“我们认为，尽管短期风险犹存，2026年黄金与白银仍有进一步上涨空间，平均价料分别为4400美元/盎司与56.25美元/盎司，最高可达5000美元和65美元。”</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>现货黄金强势突破4100美元，华尔街大行罕见大幅上调目标价至5000！</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ 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left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n现货黄金强势突破4100美元，华尔街大行罕见大幅上调目标价至5000！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-10-14 07:00 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1354528.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>现货黄金周一强势突破4100美元/盎司关口，日内大涨逾90美元，涨幅超过2%，续创历史新高。今年以来，金价累计上涨近1500美元，年内涨幅超过56%，成为全球金融市场最亮眼的资产之一。智通财经APP获悉，美国银行最新发布报告，罕见大幅上调对贵金属的中期预期，将2026年黄金目标价上调至5000美元/盎司，白银目标价上调至65美元/盎司。报告指出，受“供应紧张、政策不确定性与投资需求飙升”三重因素...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1354528.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4be30a3c11bd91e9d1f864c6a098fab1","relate_stocks":{"LU0306807586.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL DIVIDEND MAXIMISER \"A\" (USD) INC QF","LU0868494617.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0477156797.USD":"HARRIS ASSOCIATES GLOBAL EQUITY \"RE\" (USD) ACC","LU1880398471.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS GLOBAL EQUITY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","LU0130518102.USD":"HARRIS ASSOCIATES GLOBAL EQUITY \"R\" 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MAXIMISER \"A\" ACC","IE00B19Z3581.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc USD","LU0256863902.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU2133065610.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Dividend A (mth) SGD","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU1201861249.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity PA SGD-H","LU0648000940.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates Global Equity RA SGD","LU0070302665.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL U.S. VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z3B42.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD","LU1267930227.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"AS\" (SGD) ACC A","LU2129689514.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1354528.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2575288938","content_text":"现货黄金周一强势突破4100美元/盎司关口，日内大涨逾90美元，涨幅超过2%，续创历史新高。今年以来，金价累计上涨近1500美元，年内涨幅超过56%，成为全球金融市场最亮眼的资产之一。智通财经APP获悉，美国银行最新发布报告，罕见大幅上调对贵金属的中期预期，将2026年黄金目标价上调至5000美元/盎司，白银目标价上调至65美元/盎司。报告指出，受“供应紧张、政策不确定性与投资需求飙升”三重因素推动，金银价格仍具持续上行空间。美国银行大宗商品研究主管Michael Widmer表示，尽管短期内可能受到美联储鹰派立场或贸易政策波动影响，在特朗普政府财政失衡与宏观结构转向的背景下，黄金依旧是投资者首选的避险资产。报告预测，若2026年黄金投资需求增加14%，金价可能升至5000美元以上。数据显示，全球黄金ETF资金流入创纪录激增，9月SPDR Gold Shares(GLD.US)与iShares Gold Trust(IAU.US)净流入总额高达140亿美元，同比暴增880%。目前，黄金投资需求已占全球股债市场的5%以上，而两年前这一比例仅为2.8%。Widmer指出：“白宫的非传统财政政策路径，包括扩大赤字、加速债务上升、试图缩减经常账户赤字以及在通胀仍维持3%左右的情况下推动降息，整体上将持续支撑金价上行。”该行同时指出，若ETF资金流继续增长28%，金价“甚至有望触及6000美元”，但承认这一水平“挑战极高”。报告亦强调，白银市场的多重结构性因素将导致供应持续紧张。尽管美国银行预计2026年全球白银总需求将下降11%，主要源于太阳能光伏行业银用量减少，但由于矿产供给跟不上需求，市场将连续第五年处于供应赤字。技术进步亦加剧结构变化。报告称，太阳能产业正从高耗银的PERC组件转向TopCon组件，单位用银量下降。而中国为了赶上政策补贴节奏，2025年加速光伏装机建设，提前消耗部分需求。更值得关注的是实物白银市场的“极度紧张”。美国银行指出，“由于此前预期关税将出台，大量白银被转移至纽约，导致伦敦市场库存骤减，租赁利率飙升，市场运作明显受阻。”上周伦敦白银租赁利率急升，显示实物供应趋紧。美国银行预计，短期可能出现价格波动或修正，但整体趋势依旧向上。“我们认为，尽管短期风险犹存，2026年黄金与白银仍有进一步上涨空间，平均价料分别为4400美元/盎司与56.25美元/盎司，最高可达5000美元和65美元。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XAUUSD.FOREX":1.1,"GCmain":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1503,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}