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争分夺秒1982
投资小白勇闯天涯
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争分夺秒1982
争分夺秒1982
·
09-10
收到,有60%上涨📈预期。
降息必利好股市?历史数据降息后美股下跌概率最高达40%
"降息必然利好股市"——这一被广泛接受的认知正受到历史数据的严峻挑战。"美联储降息与股市表现的关系正是最佳例证。自1980年以来历次美联储降息后的数据显示:降息一个月后股市下跌的概率高达40%,六个月后下跌概率为37%,即便在十二个月后仍有27%的下跌可能。该报告意外疲软,推高了美联储在9月议息会议上降息的可能性。这种预期意味着,若美联储本月宣布降息,市场表现或许并不乐观。
降息必利好股市?历史数据降息后美股下跌概率最高达40%
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争分夺秒1982
争分夺秒1982
·
08-14
哎:-(站在山顶看风景[笑哭] [笑哭] [笑哭]
“币圈”又一大热股来了!CoinDesk母公司Bullish美股首秀收涨近84%
美东时间8月13日周三,知名加密货币行业媒体CoinDesk的母公司、数字资产交易平台Bullish以BLSH为股票交易代码在纽交所上市,上市首日股价盘中翻倍大涨,成为继"稳定币第一股"Circle之后今年美股又一热门“币圈”新股。Bullish股票开盘价报90美元,较37美元的IPO发行价大涨143%,随后股价一度触及118美元,涨幅接近219%,公司市值飙升至逾170亿美元。IPO定价超预期 机构需求旺盛Bullish此次IPO表现远超传统IPO首日20%至30%的理想涨幅标准。
“币圈”又一大热股来了!CoinDesk母公司Bullish美股首秀收涨近84%
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争分夺秒1982
争分夺秒1982
·
08-14
暗盘收盘价53
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争分夺秒1982
争分夺秒1982
·
08-13
肯定暴涨,买
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争分夺秒1982
争分夺秒1982
·
07-24
200这个价格震荡,有利好涨,反之就是跌。
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争分夺秒1982
争分夺秒1982
·
07-24
看多,有望突破前期高位。
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争分夺秒1982
争分夺秒1982
·
07-13
首次参与期权交易血本无归,然后老虎国际才开通上线教学期权,通过认真学习后对期权有了一点认识,利用模拟盘100万资金操作期权至盈利到6000万。 7月实盘操作,卷土重来未可知,由于资金不足,不能卖call卖put操作很被动,目前盈利不足千元,目标:将亏损的赚回来。
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争分夺秒1982
争分夺秒1982
·
07-11
蚂蚁出来辟谣,短期1-2天利空,然后会继续上攻。
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争分夺秒1982
争分夺秒1982
·
07-11
个人观点:7月会降息,股市会长虹。
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争分夺秒1982
争分夺秒1982
·
07-11
稳定币概念股,值得拥有。
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id=\"id_4172065443\">数据相关性:与普遍认知相反的趋势</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">从数据相关性来看,标普500指数的每日变化与美联储本月降息概率之间的关系,也为 “降息后市场可能低迷” 提供了支撑。芝加哥商品交易所(CME)的 FedWatch工具过去 12 个月来,每个交易日都会根据30天联邦基金期货计算降息概率。</p><p>几乎所有投资者都认为二者呈反向相关:预期联邦基金利率上升,标普500指数就会下降,反之亦然。</p><p>但实际数据却显示相反的趋势:过去12个月,平均而言,当市场对 9 月份会议后联邦基金利率的预期高于前一天时,标普500指数的表现反而更好。这一相关性在统计学家常用的 95% 置信水平上具有显著性,表明这种模式并非偶然。</p><p>以今年4月2日的市场反应为例,当日白宫宣布 “解放日” 关税政策后,关税举措增加了经济衰退甚至更糟情况的预期可能性。因此,在4月2日之后的一周,股市与预期联邦基金利率双双下跌,标普500指数暴跌,对9月会议后联邦基金利率的预期下降26个基点,这对于通常平稳的联邦基金期货市场而言,单周跌幅已相当显著。</p><p>而一周后,当特朗普总统宣布暂停大部分 “解放日” 关税 90 天时,上述趋势随即逆转:声明发布当天,标普500指数飙升9.5%,对9月会议后联邦基金利率的隐含预期也跃升 23 个基点。</p><h2 id=\"id_1632363643\">投资者如何面对9月降息会议</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">对于投资者而言,可从中汲取两大启示:其一,需审慎对待对降息的过度期待,美联储降息未必是利好,甚至可能暗藏利空信号;</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">其二,应始终愿意让自己的固有信念接受统计学检验,尤其是那些被几乎所有人认同的观点。这类观点最具危险性,因其广泛传播而容易被盲目遵循,一旦被证明错误,投资者将面临更大风险。</p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" 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style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-09-09 14:22</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>"降息必然利好股市"——这一被广泛接受的认知正受到历史数据的严峻挑战。逆向分析之父汉弗莱·尼尔(Humphrey Neill)曾警示:"当众人想法一致时,往往可能集体犯错。"美联储降息与股市表现的关系正是最佳例证。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">自1980年以来历次美联储降息后的数据显示:<strong>降息一个月后股市下跌的概率高达40%</strong>,六个月后下跌概率为37%,即便在十二个月后仍有27%的下跌可能。这些统计明确表明,<strong>即便美联储如市场预期在9月会议降息,也远不能保证股市必然上涨</strong>。</p><h2 id=\"id_2608270648\">为什么美联储降息后股市有时会下跌?</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">普遍认识是,如果在经济相对强劲的情况下降息,市场往往会上涨;如果在经济疲软的情况下降息,市场往往会下跌。</p><p>这一规律有助于解读上周股市对 8 月份就业报告的反应。该报告意外疲软,推高了美联储在9月议息会议上降息的可能性。标普 500指数起初因这一消息短暂上涨,但随后迅速逆转走势 —— 这或许是因为投资者意识到,经济衰退的风险可能正在逼近。</p><p>这种预期意味着,若美联储本月宣布降息,市场表现或许并不乐观。</p><h2 id=\"id_4172065443\">数据相关性:与普遍认知相反的趋势</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">从数据相关性来看,标普500指数的每日变化与美联储本月降息概率之间的关系,也为 “降息后市场可能低迷” 提供了支撑。芝加哥商品交易所(CME)的 FedWatch工具过去 12 个月来,每个交易日都会根据30天联邦基金期货计算降息概率。</p><p>几乎所有投资者都认为二者呈反向相关:预期联邦基金利率上升,标普500指数就会下降,反之亦然。</p><p>但实际数据却显示相反的趋势:过去12个月,平均而言,当市场对 9 月份会议后联邦基金利率的预期高于前一天时,标普500指数的表现反而更好。这一相关性在统计学家常用的 95% 置信水平上具有显著性,表明这种模式并非偶然。</p><p>以今年4月2日的市场反应为例,当日白宫宣布 “解放日” 关税政策后,关税举措增加了经济衰退甚至更糟情况的预期可能性。因此,在4月2日之后的一周,股市与预期联邦基金利率双双下跌,标普500指数暴跌,对9月会议后联邦基金利率的预期下降26个基点,这对于通常平稳的联邦基金期货市场而言,单周跌幅已相当显著。</p><p>而一周后,当特朗普总统宣布暂停大部分 “解放日” 关税 90 天时,上述趋势随即逆转:声明发布当天,标普500指数飙升9.5%,对9月会议后联邦基金利率的隐含预期也跃升 23 个基点。</p><h2 id=\"id_1632363643\">投资者如何面对9月降息会议</h2><p style=\"text-align: start;\">对于投资者而言,可从中汲取两大启示:其一,需审慎对待对降息的过度期待,美联储降息未必是利好,甚至可能暗藏利空信号;</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">其二,应始终愿意让自己的固有信念接受统计学检验,尤其是那些被几乎所有人认同的观点。这类观点最具危险性,因其广泛传播而容易被盲目遵循,一旦被证明错误,投资者将面临更大风险。</p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59f80b4f5ca39b50a8c2a9898ba64544","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","SPXL":"Direxion每日三倍看多标普500ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149411232","content_text":"\"降息必然利好股市\"——这一被广泛接受的认知正受到历史数据的严峻挑战。逆向分析之父汉弗莱·尼尔(Humphrey Neill)曾警示:\"当众人想法一致时,往往可能集体犯错。\"美联储降息与股市表现的关系正是最佳例证。自1980年以来历次美联储降息后的数据显示:降息一个月后股市下跌的概率高达40%,六个月后下跌概率为37%,即便在十二个月后仍有27%的下跌可能。这些统计明确表明,即便美联储如市场预期在9月会议降息,也远不能保证股市必然上涨。为什么美联储降息后股市有时会下跌?普遍认识是,如果在经济相对强劲的情况下降息,市场往往会上涨;如果在经济疲软的情况下降息,市场往往会下跌。这一规律有助于解读上周股市对 8 月份就业报告的反应。该报告意外疲软,推高了美联储在9月议息会议上降息的可能性。标普 500指数起初因这一消息短暂上涨,但随后迅速逆转走势 —— 这或许是因为投资者意识到,经济衰退的风险可能正在逼近。这种预期意味着,若美联储本月宣布降息,市场表现或许并不乐观。数据相关性:与普遍认知相反的趋势从数据相关性来看,标普500指数的每日变化与美联储本月降息概率之间的关系,也为 “降息后市场可能低迷” 提供了支撑。芝加哥商品交易所(CME)的 FedWatch工具过去 12 个月来,每个交易日都会根据30天联邦基金期货计算降息概率。几乎所有投资者都认为二者呈反向相关:预期联邦基金利率上升,标普500指数就会下降,反之亦然。但实际数据却显示相反的趋势:过去12个月,平均而言,当市场对 9 月份会议后联邦基金利率的预期高于前一天时,标普500指数的表现反而更好。这一相关性在统计学家常用的 95% 置信水平上具有显著性,表明这种模式并非偶然。以今年4月2日的市场反应为例,当日白宫宣布 “解放日” 关税政策后,关税举措增加了经济衰退甚至更糟情况的预期可能性。因此,在4月2日之后的一周,股市与预期联邦基金利率双双下跌,标普500指数暴跌,对9月会议后联邦基金利率的预期下降26个基点,这对于通常平稳的联邦基金期货市场而言,单周跌幅已相当显著。而一周后,当特朗普总统宣布暂停大部分 “解放日” 关税 90 天时,上述趋势随即逆转:声明发布当天,标普500指数飙升9.5%,对9月会议后联邦基金利率的隐含预期也跃升 23 个基点。投资者如何面对9月降息会议对于投资者而言,可从中汲取两大启示:其一,需审慎对待对降息的过度期待,美联储降息未必是利好,甚至可能暗藏利空信号;其二,应始终愿意让自己的固有信念接受统计学检验,尤其是那些被几乎所有人认同的观点。这类观点最具危险性,因其广泛传播而容易被盲目遵循,一旦被证明错误,投资者将面临更大风险。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":1.1,".IXIC":1.1,".SPX":1.1,"ESmain":1.1,"NQmain":1.1,"QQQ":1.1,"SDOW":1.1,"SPXL":1.1,"SPY":1.1,"SQQQ":1.1,"TQQQ":1.1,"YMmain":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":96,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":467607212790024,"gmtCreate":1755178902569,"gmtModify":1755178904445,"author":{"id":"3551170909390170","authorId":"3551170909390170","name":"争分夺秒1982","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3551170909390170","authorIdStr":"3551170909390170"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"哎:-(站在山顶看风景[笑哭] [笑哭] [笑哭] ","listText":"哎:-(站在山顶看风景[笑哭] [笑哭] [笑哭] ","text":"哎:-(站在山顶看风景[笑哭] [笑哭] [笑哭]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/467607212790024","repostId":"2559981185","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2559981185","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1755120600,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2559981185?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-08-14 05:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“币圈”又一大热股来了!CoinDesk母公司Bullish美股首秀收涨近84%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2559981185","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美东时间8月13日周三,知名加密货币行业媒体CoinDesk的母公司、数字资产交易平台Bullish以BLSH为股票交易代码在纽交所上市,上市首日股价盘中翻倍大涨,成为继\"稳定币第一股\"Circle之后今年美股又一热门“币圈”新股。Bullish股票开盘价报90美元,较37美元的IPO发行价大涨143%,随后股价一度触及118美元,涨幅接近219%,公司市值飙升至逾170亿美元。IPO定价超预期 机构需求旺盛Bullish此次IPO表现远超传统IPO首日20%至30%的理想涨幅标准。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>Bullish的发行价已较本周上调后的指导区间高逾10%,IPO募资11亿美元,开盘价又较发行价高143%,盘中涨幅一度超过200%,收涨近84%。此前贝莱德等机构已有总计2亿美元的认购意向。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">继稳定币发行方Circle之后,今年美股上市的又一“币圈”新贵首秀亮眼。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美东时间8月13日周三,知名加密货币行业媒体CoinDesk的母公司、数字资产交易平台Bullish以BLSH为股票交易代码在纽交所上市,上市首日股价盘中翻倍大涨,成为继"稳定币第一股"Circle之后今年美股又一热门“币圈”新股。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Bullish股票开盘价报90美元,较37美元的IPO发行价大涨143%,随后股价一度触及118美元,涨幅接近219%,公司市值飙升至逾170亿美元。该个股因波动剧烈多次临时暂停交易,到收盘报68美元,日内涨近84%,市值接近100亿美元。在美股盘后交易中再涨近10%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8675d5f45edc31e83029046e1f01e669\" tg-width=\"841\" tg-height=\"837\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Bullish此次37美元的发行价意味着,IPO募资规模11亿美元、公司估值由此达到54.1亿美元,而且上市发行价远超指导区间,凸显机构投资者对加密行业制度化进程的强烈信心。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">贝莱德和“木头姐”Cathie Wood的ARK Invest等重量级机构已表态有意认购最高2亿美元股份,为发行提供了坚实基石。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Bullish由前纽交所总裁Tom Farley领导,获科技亿万富翁Peter Thiel支持,专注服务机构投资者。公司旗下拥有加密新闻网站CoinDesk,自2021年推出以来平台总交易量已超1.25万亿美元。</p><h2 id=\"ipo\">IPO定价超预期 机构需求旺盛</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Bullish此次IPO表现远超传统IPO首日20%至30%的理想涨幅标准。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">公司最终发行价37美元明显高于本周上调后的指导区间32至33美元,较该区间高12.1%至15.6%,更是远超最初的指导区间28至31美元,相比最初区间高19.4%至32.1%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Bullish的CEOTom Farley在接受媒体采访时表示:</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“加密货币的上一轮增长,也就是过去十年,基本上都是散户投资……而机构投资者的浪潮已经开始。它已经到来,问题只是规模会有多大。基于我们IPO迄今的反响,机构投资者似乎认为,现在可能就是那个时刻。"</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">为防止股价过度波动,Bullish将约20%的发行份额分配给个人投资者,高于通常不到10%的比例。公司在发行前已获得贝莱德和ARK Invest等知名机构总计2亿美元的认购意向,展现了华尔街对加密交易平台的浓厚兴趣。</p><h2 id=\"id_567350515\">加密企业IPO热潮持续升温</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Bullish是今年美股市场加密企业上市潮中的重要一员。今年6月,稳定币发行商Circle成功上市并募资超10亿美元,首日股价飙升168%。此外,Mike Novogratz的Galaxy Digital已从多伦多转至纳斯达克交易,股票和加密交易应用eToro的IPO估值达54亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">加密托管初创公司BitGo和加密交易所Gemini也已秘密提交美国上市申请。这一上市热潮得益于特朗普政府对加密行业的友好态度,总统承诺让美国成为"世界加密货币之都"。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">今年以来美国IPO市场表现强劲,价值超5000万美元的IPO数量同比增长58%至133宗。今年上市公司平均较发行价上涨25%,而过去五年的IPO平均表现均低于发行价20%以上。</p><h2 id=\"52e45153\">二次上市尝试获得成功</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这是Bullish四年来第二次尝试上市。公司曾在2021-2022年加密牛市期间计划通过SPAC合并上市,估值约90亿美元,但该交易在2022年11月FTX交易所崩盘等一系列加密公司倒闭事件后告吹。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2023年,Bullish从陷入财务困境的Digital Currency Group收购了加密行业权威媒体CoinDesk。截至今年3月,Bullish平台日均交易量达26亿美元,主要面向机构客户提供数字资产现货和衍生品交易服务。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">公司获得Peter Thiel的Founders Fund和对冲基金经理Louis Bacon等知名投资者支持。Farley表示,随着比特币屡创新高和监管环境改善,"市场正在为区块链技术驱动全球主要金融业务的潜力定价"。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3753265><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Bullish的发行价已较本周上调后的指导区间高逾10%,IPO募资11亿美元,开盘价又较发行价高143%,盘中涨幅一度超过200%,收涨近84%。此前贝莱德等机构已有总计2亿美元的认购意向。继稳定币发行方Circle之后,今年美股上市的又一“币圈”新贵首秀亮眼。美东时间8月13日周三,知名加密货币行业媒体CoinDesk的母公司、数字资产交易平台Bullish以BLSH为股票交易代码在纽交所上市...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3753265\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b6ee35d5e3953381b46896042cc8e62","relate_stocks":{"BLSH":"Bullish"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3753265","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2559981185","content_text":"Bullish的发行价已较本周上调后的指导区间高逾10%,IPO募资11亿美元,开盘价又较发行价高143%,盘中涨幅一度超过200%,收涨近84%。此前贝莱德等机构已有总计2亿美元的认购意向。继稳定币发行方Circle之后,今年美股上市的又一“币圈”新贵首秀亮眼。美东时间8月13日周三,知名加密货币行业媒体CoinDesk的母公司、数字资产交易平台Bullish以BLSH为股票交易代码在纽交所上市,上市首日股价盘中翻倍大涨,成为继\"稳定币第一股\"Circle之后今年美股又一热门“币圈”新股。Bullish股票开盘价报90美元,较37美元的IPO发行价大涨143%,随后股价一度触及118美元,涨幅接近219%,公司市值飙升至逾170亿美元。该个股因波动剧烈多次临时暂停交易,到收盘报68美元,日内涨近84%,市值接近100亿美元。在美股盘后交易中再涨近10%。Bullish此次37美元的发行价意味着,IPO募资规模11亿美元、公司估值由此达到54.1亿美元,而且上市发行价远超指导区间,凸显机构投资者对加密行业制度化进程的强烈信心。贝莱德和“木头姐”Cathie Wood的ARK Invest等重量级机构已表态有意认购最高2亿美元股份,为发行提供了坚实基石。Bullish由前纽交所总裁Tom Farley领导,获科技亿万富翁Peter Thiel支持,专注服务机构投资者。公司旗下拥有加密新闻网站CoinDesk,自2021年推出以来平台总交易量已超1.25万亿美元。IPO定价超预期 机构需求旺盛Bullish此次IPO表现远超传统IPO首日20%至30%的理想涨幅标准。公司最终发行价37美元明显高于本周上调后的指导区间32至33美元,较该区间高12.1%至15.6%,更是远超最初的指导区间28至31美元,相比最初区间高19.4%至32.1%。Bullish的CEOTom Farley在接受媒体采访时表示:“加密货币的上一轮增长,也就是过去十年,基本上都是散户投资……而机构投资者的浪潮已经开始。它已经到来,问题只是规模会有多大。基于我们IPO迄今的反响,机构投资者似乎认为,现在可能就是那个时刻。\"为防止股价过度波动,Bullish将约20%的发行份额分配给个人投资者,高于通常不到10%的比例。公司在发行前已获得贝莱德和ARK Invest等知名机构总计2亿美元的认购意向,展现了华尔街对加密交易平台的浓厚兴趣。加密企业IPO热潮持续升温Bullish是今年美股市场加密企业上市潮中的重要一员。今年6月,稳定币发行商Circle成功上市并募资超10亿美元,首日股价飙升168%。此外,Mike Novogratz的Galaxy Digital已从多伦多转至纳斯达克交易,股票和加密交易应用eToro的IPO估值达54亿美元。加密托管初创公司BitGo和加密交易所Gemini也已秘密提交美国上市申请。这一上市热潮得益于特朗普政府对加密行业的友好态度,总统承诺让美国成为\"世界加密货币之都\"。今年以来美国IPO市场表现强劲,价值超5000万美元的IPO数量同比增长58%至133宗。今年上市公司平均较发行价上涨25%,而过去五年的IPO平均表现均低于发行价20%以上。二次上市尝试获得成功这是Bullish四年来第二次尝试上市。公司曾在2021-2022年加密牛市期间计划通过SPAC合并上市,估值约90亿美元,但该交易在2022年11月FTX交易所崩盘等一系列加密公司倒闭事件后告吹。2023年,Bullish从陷入财务困境的Digital Currency 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