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顾北哲
顾北哲
·
2021-05-13
马斯克这个**，现在看着比特币快崩了就搬出什么能源消耗作为理由停用交易，早干嘛去了？一开始决定支持比特币交易的时候他不知道？任何对比特币稍微有点了解的人会不知道比特币的能耗高？
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顾北哲
顾北哲
·
2021-03-22
$汇森家居(02127)$
每天都是大单净流出？[愤怒]
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顾北哲
顾北哲
·
2021-03-10
垃圾文章
亏损与股价暴涨的矛盾，是B站与华尔街的分歧
当B站挂牌美股，华尔街的分析师们普遍看好这来自中国的“年轻版奈飞”。业内人士指出，B站的社区氛围鲜明，被许多人认可。营收攀升也带来了成本的迅速攀升，B站还在为其未来的全量版图积极布局。面对这样的B站华尔街的分析师们开始转身，特别是对比奈飞的财报。资本市场看好B站，主要原因是看好其聚拢年轻人的能力。
亏损与股价暴涨的矛盾，是B站与华尔街的分歧
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顾北哲
顾北哲
·
2021-02-27
一顿操作猛于虎，一看收益二百五[可爱]
@eehao：
$游戏驿站(GME)$小赌怡情, 觉得是高手的帮忙点个赞
$游戏驿站(GME)$小赌怡情, 觉得是高手的帮忙点个赞
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顾北哲
顾北哲
·
2021-02-26
Despite the high valuations, I would argue that the “ARK” companies have much better fundamentals than the ones in the dot com bubble
The days of easy money in the stock market are now over<blockquote>股市轻松赚钱的日子现已结束</blockquote>
Get ready for a return to normal. Lucid’s SPAC and ARK Invest’s ETFs carry the whiff of the late-199
The days of easy money in the stock market are now over<blockquote>股市轻松赚钱的日子现已结束</blockquote>
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顾北哲
顾北哲
·
2021-02-26
What are some of the more reasonably valued tech companies?
Why the Plunge in More Speculative Tech Stocks Might Not Be Over Yet<blockquote>为什么投机性更强的科技股的暴跌可能尚未结束</blockquote>
High valuations, margin debt and the ARK effect could lead to more pain for some names. But the sell
Why the Plunge in More Speculative Tech Stocks Might Not Be Over Yet<blockquote>为什么投机性更强的科技股的暴跌可能尚未结束</blockquote>
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顾北哲
顾北哲
·
2021-02-24
接吻拥抱算你🐴的软色情，一点欲望都没有出家去得了
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顾北哲
顾北哲
·
2021-02-23
0.1% really isn’t a big deal. If you buy and sell $1 million worth of asset you only need to pay 2000. That’s not much at all.
After the GameStop fiasco, momentum builds for an $800 billion tax<blockquote>游戏驿站惨败后，8000亿美元税收势头增强</blockquote>
New York (CNN Business)-Uncle Sam is in search for a pot of gold that could ease the pain of trillio
After the GameStop fiasco, momentum builds for an $800 billion tax<blockquote>游戏驿站惨败后，8000亿美元税收势头增强</blockquote>
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顾北哲
顾北哲
·
2021-02-23
等到经济危机无法解决的时候，唯一的出路就是战争。
《大空头》原型连发警告：恶性通胀已酝酿十年
周末，美国著名投资人、电影《大空头》原型布里就一个主题在社交平台上连续发文多条，警告的主题就是——恶性通货膨胀。布里连珠炮一样地引述了大量《财富的消亡》原文，有心者不难看出，文中描述的魏玛德国，与今日
《大空头》原型连发警告：恶性通胀已酝酿十年
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顾北哲
顾北哲
·
2021-02-20
头像换成了个二次元妹子？
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>涨幅居前，上涨都超10%，B站也扭转2月中旬以来下降趋势，上涨8.81%，报收107美元，市值为384亿美元（约2457亿元）。</p><p>之所以单独提到B站，是因为与其他中概股不同，B站从2018年在纳斯达克上市以来，几乎没有经历过暴跌的“大风大浪”，三年来一直处于上升趋势，累计涨幅超过800%。</p><p>而B站能一直被华尔街看中，股票涨势风生水起，多亏了奈飞。</p><p><strong>华尔街眼中“年轻版”奈飞</strong></p><p><strong>B站是吃到流媒体时代第一波红利的企业。</strong>B站在自制内容方面主打动画和二次元内容，二者反哺了B站的文化基调，大量年轻的流量涌向B站，新的意见领袖和观众体系也被建立起来。</p><p>流媒体通俗点说，就是我们可以在线看网上音视频。传统的媒体文件，比如视频要完全下载下来才能观看，流媒体的特点是在高速互联网时代可以如同流水一般在线看，无需下载，也可以实现边下边看。</p><p>流媒体的运作模式就是，通过内容创作制造流量入口，这个内容可以是平台自己买来的，也可以是用户自发上传的，有了流量，形成内容生态圈，然后就会有更加优质的内容产出，最后就是通过会员和充值实现流量变现，平台的主要目的就是巩固生态圈，保证流量变现的顺利实现。</p><p><strong>流媒体的厉害之处在于，只要有了稳定的生态圈，变现的方式异常多元</strong>，可以卖游戏、卖直播、卖广告、卖周边等等。</p><p>这也是B站的运营方式，在之前B站的很多内容都是内容创作者自发上传的（因此有很多版权纠纷），成本很低，这和流媒体的“鼻祖”奈飞很相似。</p><p>B站大涨的奥秘在于，<strong>华尔街的分析师普遍把B站对标“年轻版的奈飞”，大量投资者认为曾错过投资奈飞的天赐良机，现在绝不能再错过B站。</strong></p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210310145158826d235lpz7qaj137r\"/><p><strong>B站大热多亏奈飞</strong></p><p>华尔街是崇尚讲好科技故事的，而B站的热度多亏了奈飞的故事推动。</p><p>奈飞这种流媒体视频平台，大致相当于网络时代的电视台。他们可以打破电视时代的国境线局限，给世界范围内的人群提供影视类产品来盈利。</p><p>奈飞的故事很励志，早期是一家在线租赁DVD，1999年开始提供订阅服务，2009年该公司提供多达10万部DVD电影，并有1千万的订户。</p><p>利用租赁DVD积累的用户，奈飞开始自制内容在平台播放，2013年凭借《纸牌屋》，被推上全球瞩目的风口浪尖，随后《铁杉树丛》、《女子监狱》……接连多部剧集均保持超高质量成为了现象级话题。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20210310145159496d2354u841dku2wh\"/><p>这是奈飞的好运吗？<strong>事实上这并不是幸运，而是一个完全的平台转型、系统化的以大数据协助创意人的内容生产新模式。</strong>从“倒卖内容”到“创作内容”，奈飞从媒介生意转型成内容生意，它的成就是巨大的。</p><p>2012年起，奈飞开始自制剧集，并从最早的年产出8部一路狂涨到2018年年产出1500部。这个数字意味着什么呢？这种内容创造力，是其它三家竞品公司的总和（HBONOW AmazonVideo HULU）。</p><p>奈飞靠什么取得了成功，靠的是通过大数据讨好“特定的人群”，通俗点说，<strong>奈飞的内容变得越来越圈层化。</strong>奈飞从2010年起就开始通过数据算法分析用户，它们通过这些数据发现大量用户喜欢导演大卫·芬奇，对凯文·斯佩西演的电影好评很高，同时用户还非常喜欢看英国版的《纸牌屋》。</p><p>所以在2011年没有一家传统电视台愿意为英版《纸牌屋》投拍第二季的情况下，奈飞果断以1亿美元买下《纸牌屋》两季26集版权。甚至还为等待凯文·斯佩西的档期，硬生生地延后了10个月才开拍。在2012年，奈飞以一部《纸牌屋》咸鱼翻身，并自此成为纳斯达克表现最好的股票之一；直到近日打败娱乐IP内容之王<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">迪士尼</a>。</p><p>十年过去了，奈飞的订阅用户已突破2亿人，股票回报率超过2000%，一众华尔街看空者损失惨重，华尔街的分析师们清醒过来。</p><p>不过，今天的奈飞更愿意把自己叫做像迪斯尼那样的综合娱乐公司，而不仅仅是一家互联网公司。当B站挂牌美股，华尔街的分析师们普遍看好这来自中国的“年轻版奈飞”。</p><p><strong>“破圈”的B站</strong></p><p>B站董事长陈睿曾这样说：“B站未来可能会倒闭，但绝对不会变质。”但那时的他不曾预料的是，上市后B站将会重新审视这个问题。</p><p>2015年前的B站，反叛而个性的创作内容充斥着社区。或许是基于ACG二次元文化起家，个性化独特的内容成为B站的代名词，而大名鼎鼎的“鬼畜区”也是在中国互联网史上绝无仅有。这种反叛，对主流文化和现实社会的反叛，让B站的用户愿意把自己“封闭”起来。会员答题就是最好的门槛。</p><p><strong>在奈飞努力打造自己的受众圈层时，B站却在垂直领域中尝试破圈。</strong></p><p>2019年首次举办跨年晚会，B站一举出圈，之后又凭借五四青年节的《后浪》，持续出圈，这一年，B站还进入剧集和综艺、电竞领域，投资<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01003\">欢喜传媒</a>独播剧集《风犬少年的天空》，自制说唱类综艺《说唱新世代》，并与拳头游戏达成英雄联盟全球赛事战略合作，获得S10至S12连续三年的中国大陆地区直播平台领域独家版权。</p><p>与华尔街的分析师们认知的不同，B站的对标平台并非奈飞，而是优爱腾。从二次元起家的B站不愿拘泥于年轻群体，不愿意依照华尔街分析师的分析发展垂直领域，而是通过“破圈”，实现用户的广度。</p><p>业内人士指出，B站的社区氛围鲜明，被许多人认可。然而，<strong>盈利还是关键问题，被认可不代表被资本喜爱。</strong>破圈几乎是企业发展市场的必经之路。即便是以小众文化崛起而闻名的企业，也很难逃过追逐大众趋势的宿命。用户局限在二次元，影响的不仅仅是B站的营收和用户增量，更是其必须要获得且壮大的商业价值认同感。</p><p>鲜艳的成绩背后，有舍有得。2020年第三季度财报显示，B站该季度的营销费用高达11.9亿元，同比增长227%，净亏损也达到9.9亿人民币，创下有史以来最高的纪录。营收攀升也带来了成本的迅速攀升，B站还在为其未来的全量版图积极布局。</p><p>为了破圈，B站继续投入大量营销费用，亏损的口子越来越大。具体来看，B站2015年的营销费用只有0.18亿元，到了2019年这一费用增加至12亿元，5年翻了近66倍，只2020年前三季度的营销费用就有24.71亿元，比2019年全年的营销费用还翻了一番，占总营收的比重近三成。</p><p><strong>虽然使B站的营收不断增长，但亏损却愈发严重</strong>，其中2017年还只亏损1.84亿元，到2020年亏损金额就超过30亿元，近三年累计亏损49亿，同期奈飞的业绩已实现近30亿的<span>净利润</span>。</p><p>面对这样的B站华尔街的分析师们开始转身，特别是对比奈飞的财报。从2月中旬开始，B站股价一路下跌，累计跌幅近30%，不过，到了3月9日，受中概股集体上扬的影响，B站再次上涨。</p><p>虽然从用户数量还是月活跃度，2020年B站都交出了非常优异的答卷。即使面对高亏损，在陈睿看来，B站破圈“势在必行”。</p><p>对比B站2020年的势如破竹，2021年能否成功，仍是未知数。B站2020年底举办的跨年晚会，用户评价明显不如上一年，在豆瓣评分上，2019年晚会评分9.1分，2020年仅为6.7分。今年春节前夕，B站还陷入巨大争议中，被大量用户举报、抵制，在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">微博</a>多次登上热搜，甚至被勒令参与2021春节网络环境专项整治行动。</p><p>资本市场看好B站，主要原因是看好其聚拢年轻人的能力。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601211\">国泰君安</a>发布报告称，B站核心优势在于沉淀了高质量用户。失去了核心优势，B站又该何去何从呢？</p><p><strong>欢迎关注【BT财经】，阅读更多精彩内容。</strong></p><p><strong>版权所有，禁止私自转载！如涉及侵权，请联系删除。</strong></p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>亏损与股价暴涨的矛盾，是B站与华尔街的分歧</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n亏损与股价暴涨的矛盾，是B站与华尔街的分歧\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-10 14:33 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202103101452027e655315&s=b><strong>BT财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>文丨BT财经 常倩倩曾经的B站被华尔街看作“年轻版”奈飞，“成年的奈飞”开始走精品化、圈层化的路线，而在美国上市后的B站，却开始抛弃二次元的定位和年轻受众，尝试走“破圈”之路……3月9日，中概股集体大涨，其中有256只个股上涨，只有42只个股下跌，迅雷、蔚来、拼多多涨幅居前，上涨都超10%，B站也扭转2月中旬以来下降趋势，上涨8.81%，报收107美元，市值为384亿美元（约2457亿元）。之所以...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202103101452027e655315&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edc98c04cdc47dd0d16e08274ce9a364","relate_stocks":{"BILI":"哔哩哔哩","NFLX":"奈飞"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202103101452027e655315&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2118738624","content_text":"文丨BT财经 常倩倩曾经的B站被华尔街看作“年轻版”奈飞，“成年的奈飞”开始走精品化、圈层化的路线，而在美国上市后的B站，却开始抛弃二次元的定位和年轻受众，尝试走“破圈”之路……3月9日，中概股集体大涨，其中有256只个股上涨，只有42只个股下跌，迅雷、蔚来、拼多多涨幅居前，上涨都超10%，B站也扭转2月中旬以来下降趋势，上涨8.81%，报收107美元，市值为384亿美元（约2457亿元）。之所以单独提到B站，是因为与其他中概股不同，B站从2018年在纳斯达克上市以来，几乎没有经历过暴跌的“大风大浪”，三年来一直处于上升趋势，累计涨幅超过800%。而B站能一直被华尔街看中，股票涨势风生水起，多亏了奈飞。华尔街眼中“年轻版”奈飞B站是吃到流媒体时代第一波红利的企业。B站在自制内容方面主打动画和二次元内容，二者反哺了B站的文化基调，大量年轻的流量涌向B站，新的意见领袖和观众体系也被建立起来。流媒体通俗点说，就是我们可以在线看网上音视频。传统的媒体文件，比如视频要完全下载下来才能观看，流媒体的特点是在高速互联网时代可以如同流水一般在线看，无需下载，也可以实现边下边看。流媒体的运作模式就是，通过内容创作制造流量入口，这个内容可以是平台自己买来的，也可以是用户自发上传的，有了流量，形成内容生态圈，然后就会有更加优质的内容产出，最后就是通过会员和充值实现流量变现，平台的主要目的就是巩固生态圈，保证流量变现的顺利实现。流媒体的厉害之处在于，只要有了稳定的生态圈，变现的方式异常多元，可以卖游戏、卖直播、卖广告、卖周边等等。这也是B站的运营方式，在之前B站的很多内容都是内容创作者自发上传的（因此有很多版权纠纷），成本很低，这和流媒体的“鼻祖”奈飞很相似。B站大涨的奥秘在于，华尔街的分析师普遍把B站对标“年轻版的奈飞”，大量投资者认为曾错过投资奈飞的天赐良机，现在绝不能再错过B站。B站大热多亏奈飞华尔街是崇尚讲好科技故事的，而B站的热度多亏了奈飞的故事推动。奈飞这种流媒体视频平台，大致相当于网络时代的电视台。他们可以打破电视时代的国境线局限，给世界范围内的人群提供影视类产品来盈利。奈飞的故事很励志，早期是一家在线租赁DVD，1999年开始提供订阅服务，2009年该公司提供多达10万部DVD电影，并有1千万的订户。利用租赁DVD积累的用户，奈飞开始自制内容在平台播放，2013年凭借《纸牌屋》，被推上全球瞩目的风口浪尖，随后《铁杉树丛》、《女子监狱》……接连多部剧集均保持超高质量成为了现象级话题。这是奈飞的好运吗？事实上这并不是幸运，而是一个完全的平台转型、系统化的以大数据协助创意人的内容生产新模式。从“倒卖内容”到“创作内容”，奈飞从媒介生意转型成内容生意，它的成就是巨大的。2012年起，奈飞开始自制剧集，并从最早的年产出8部一路狂涨到2018年年产出1500部。这个数字意味着什么呢？这种内容创造力，是其它三家竞品公司的总和（HBONOW AmazonVideo HULU）。奈飞靠什么取得了成功，靠的是通过大数据讨好“特定的人群”，通俗点说，奈飞的内容变得越来越圈层化。奈飞从2010年起就开始通过数据算法分析用户，它们通过这些数据发现大量用户喜欢导演大卫·芬奇，对凯文·斯佩西演的电影好评很高，同时用户还非常喜欢看英国版的《纸牌屋》。所以在2011年没有一家传统电视台愿意为英版《纸牌屋》投拍第二季的情况下，奈飞果断以1亿美元买下《纸牌屋》两季26集版权。甚至还为等待凯文·斯佩西的档期，硬生生地延后了10个月才开拍。在2012年，奈飞以一部《纸牌屋》咸鱼翻身，并自此成为纳斯达克表现最好的股票之一；直到近日打败娱乐IP内容之王迪士尼。十年过去了，奈飞的订阅用户已突破2亿人，股票回报率超过2000%，一众华尔街看空者损失惨重，华尔街的分析师们清醒过来。不过，今天的奈飞更愿意把自己叫做像迪斯尼那样的综合娱乐公司，而不仅仅是一家互联网公司。当B站挂牌美股，华尔街的分析师们普遍看好这来自中国的“年轻版奈飞”。“破圈”的B站B站董事长陈睿曾这样说：“B站未来可能会倒闭，但绝对不会变质。”但那时的他不曾预料的是，上市后B站将会重新审视这个问题。2015年前的B站，反叛而个性的创作内容充斥着社区。或许是基于ACG二次元文化起家，个性化独特的内容成为B站的代名词，而大名鼎鼎的“鬼畜区”也是在中国互联网史上绝无仅有。这种反叛，对主流文化和现实社会的反叛，让B站的用户愿意把自己“封闭”起来。会员答题就是最好的门槛。在奈飞努力打造自己的受众圈层时，B站却在垂直领域中尝试破圈。2019年首次举办跨年晚会，B站一举出圈，之后又凭借五四青年节的《后浪》，持续出圈，这一年，B站还进入剧集和综艺、电竞领域，投资欢喜传媒独播剧集《风犬少年的天空》，自制说唱类综艺《说唱新世代》，并与拳头游戏达成英雄联盟全球赛事战略合作，获得S10至S12连续三年的中国大陆地区直播平台领域独家版权。与华尔街的分析师们认知的不同，B站的对标平台并非奈飞，而是优爱腾。从二次元起家的B站不愿拘泥于年轻群体，不愿意依照华尔街分析师的分析发展垂直领域，而是通过“破圈”，实现用户的广度。业内人士指出，B站的社区氛围鲜明，被许多人认可。然而，盈利还是关键问题，被认可不代表被资本喜爱。破圈几乎是企业发展市场的必经之路。即便是以小众文化崛起而闻名的企业，也很难逃过追逐大众趋势的宿命。用户局限在二次元，影响的不仅仅是B站的营收和用户增量，更是其必须要获得且壮大的商业价值认同感。鲜艳的成绩背后，有舍有得。2020年第三季度财报显示，B站该季度的营销费用高达11.9亿元，同比增长227%，净亏损也达到9.9亿人民币，创下有史以来最高的纪录。营收攀升也带来了成本的迅速攀升，B站还在为其未来的全量版图积极布局。为了破圈，B站继续投入大量营销费用，亏损的口子越来越大。具体来看，B站2015年的营销费用只有0.18亿元，到了2019年这一费用增加至12亿元，5年翻了近66倍，只2020年前三季度的营销费用就有24.71亿元，比2019年全年的营销费用还翻了一番，占总营收的比重近三成。虽然使B站的营收不断增长，但亏损却愈发严重，其中2017年还只亏损1.84亿元，到2020年亏损金额就超过30亿元，近三年累计亏损49亿，同期奈飞的业绩已实现近30亿的净利润。面对这样的B站华尔街的分析师们开始转身，特别是对比奈飞的财报。从2月中旬开始，B站股价一路下跌，累计跌幅近30%，不过，到了3月9日，受中概股集体上扬的影响，B站再次上涨。虽然从用户数量还是月活跃度，2020年B站都交出了非常优异的答卷。即使面对高亏损，在陈睿看来，B站破圈“势在必行”。对比B站2020年的势如破竹，2021年能否成功，仍是未知数。B站2020年底举办的跨年晚会，用户评价明显不如上一年，在豆瓣评分上，2019年晚会评分9.1分，2020年仅为6.7分。今年春节前夕，B站还陷入巨大争议中，被大量用户举报、抵制，在微博多次登上热搜，甚至被勒令参与2021春节网络环境专项整治行动。资本市场看好B站，主要原因是看好其聚拢年轻人的能力。国泰君安发布报告称，B站核心优势在于沉淀了高质量用户。失去了核心优势，B站又该何去何从呢？欢迎关注【BT财经】，阅读更多精彩内容。版权所有，禁止私自转载！如涉及侵权，请联系删除。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BILI":1,"NFLX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4274,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":366944257,"gmtCreate":1614388426879,"gmtModify":1703477174278,"author":{"id":"3551276051261213","authorId":"3551276051261213","name":"顾北哲","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/547dd0e81f53759d860ddd3a4b0ee70b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3551276051261213","authorIdStr":"3551276051261213"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"一顿操作猛于虎，一看收益二百五[可爱]","listText":"一顿操作猛于虎，一看收益二百五[可爱]","text":"一顿操作猛于虎，一看收益二百五[可爱]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366944257","repostId":"366908587","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":366908587,"gmtCreate":1614375736849,"gmtModify":1703477056873,"author":{"id":"3571559308386743","authorId":"3571559308386743","name":"eehao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99d79c56c31f46107566434d8d5c4f2c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571559308386743","authorIdStr":"3571559308386743"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$游戏驿站(GME)$</a>小赌怡情, 觉得是高手的帮忙点个赞","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$游戏驿站(GME)$</a>小赌怡情, 觉得是高手的帮忙点个赞","text":"$游戏驿站(GME)$小赌怡情, 觉得是高手的帮忙点个赞","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1876aee4d857f0d99ef43cd4204c1a3","width":"1080","height":"2246"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366908587","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4506,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":368841565,"gmtCreate":1614311803157,"gmtModify":1703476195510,"author":{"id":"3551276051261213","authorId":"3551276051261213","name":"顾北哲","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/547dd0e81f53759d860ddd3a4b0ee70b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3551276051261213","authorIdStr":"3551276051261213"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Despite the high valuations, I would argue that the “ARK” companies have much better fundamentals than the ones in the dot com bubble ","listText":"Despite the high valuations, I would argue that the “ARK” companies have much better fundamentals than the ones in the dot com bubble ","text":"Despite the high valuations, I would argue that the “ARK” companies have much better fundamentals than the ones in the dot com bubble","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368841565","repostId":"1197533827","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1197533827","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614160523,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1197533827?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-24 17:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The days of easy money in the stock market are now over<blockquote>股市轻松赚钱的日子现已结束</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197533827","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Get ready for a return to normal. Lucid’s SPAC and ARK Invest’s ETFs carry the whiff of the late-199","content":"<p>Get ready for a return to normal. Lucid’s SPAC and ARK Invest’s ETFs carry the whiff of the late-1990s technology bubble.</p><p><blockquote>准备好恢复正常吧。Lucid的SPAC和ARK Invest的ETF带有20世纪90年代末科技泡沫的气息。</blockquote></p><p> Ignore stock valuations and companies’ fundamentals at your peril.</p><p><blockquote>忽视股票估值和公司基本面，后果自负。</blockquote></p><p> Churchill Capital Corp. ,a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) that had been rumored to merge with a Tesla-wannabe, Lucid Motors, finally announced Monday night that it is indeed going to do so. And in a classic Wall Street reaction, the market “sold the news” after long having “bought the rumor.”</p><p><blockquote>Churchill Capital Corp.是一家特殊目的收购公司（SPAC），曾有传言称将与特斯拉的追随者Lucid Motors合并，周一晚上终于宣布确实会这样做。在华尔街的典型反应中，市场在长期“买入谣言”后“卖出消息”。</blockquote></p><p> CCIV was up 500% from when it went public as a blank-check company, and today the stock market has wiped half of what its market value was perceived to be Monday at noon. This is a stock that I had warned about earlier this month as one of the many “Random Number Generators” (RNGs) that should be avoided. People and institutions who had for weeks been buying CCIV at $40, $50, $60 or even $70 per share have suddenly seen a huge wipeout of value.</p><p><blockquote>CCIV较作为空白支票公司上市时上涨了500%，今天股市已经抹去了周一中午预期市值的一半。本月早些时候，我曾警告过这只股票是应避免的众多“随机数生成器”(RNG)之一。几周来一直以每股40美元、50美元、60美元甚至70美元的价格购买CCIV的人和机构突然发现价值大幅缩水。</blockquote></p><p> They’re now, maybe, looking around at their other RNG SPACs and wondering if they should actually look at the valuations.</p><p><blockquote>他们现在可能正在环顾其他RNG SPAC，并想知道是否真的应该看看估值。</blockquote></p><p> Reviewing this week’s ugly stock-market action in a broader context, you might note that Tesla Inc. at $900 — after the company reported a not-so-great quarter that included some questions about gross margin expansion — is looking like it could have been a top-maker itself.</p><p><blockquote>在更广泛的背景下回顾本周丑陋的股市走势，您可能会注意到，特斯拉公司的股价为900美元——此前该公司报告了一个不太好的季度，其中包括一些有关毛利率扩张的问题——看起来可能已经是顶级制造商本身。</blockquote></p><p> Many questionable EV stocks continued to rally for a week or two before getting their comeuppance this week. At least for a day or two. It will be interesting to look back in a month to see what the non-TSLA EV stocks do from here. I expect most to move much lower even than today’s quotes, which are much lower than last week’s quotes.</p><p><blockquote>许多有问题的电动汽车股票在本周受到惩罚之前持续上涨了一两周。至少一两天。一个月后回顾一下非特斯拉电动汽车股票的表现将会很有趣。我预计大多数价格甚至会比今天的报价低得多，今天的报价比上周的报价低得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Piling into ARK</b></p><p><blockquote><b>堆积成方舟</b></blockquote></p><p> These days everybody wants to be Cathie Wood from ARK Invest. She was an early bull on Tesla and bitcoinBTCUSD,6.03%and some of the the other themes that long-time followers of mine and I got into even earlier than she did. Her actively managed ETF, ARK Innovation ETF being the most famous, has performed very well, and her commentary has been spot on for a couple years now.</p><p><blockquote>如今，每个人都想成为方舟投资公司的凯西·伍德。她是特斯拉和比特币BTCUSD、6.03%以及我和我的长期追随者甚至比她更早进入的其他一些主题的早期看涨者。她的主动管理型ETF（最著名的ARK Innovation ETF）表现非常好，几年来她的评论一直准确无误。</blockquote></p><p> But I have bad news. Even as I am a fan of Cathie’s and wish her and her investors all the best, I can’t help but think of the story of George Gilder, with whom I’ve become friends in the decades since I wrote this in 2001 for TheStreet.com. (I just realized this article was published just two weeks after 9/11.):</p><p><blockquote>但我有个坏消息。尽管我是Cathie's的粉丝并祝愿她和她的投资者一切顺利，但我还是忍不住想起了乔治·吉尔德(George Gilder)的故事，自从我2001年为TheStreet.com撰写这篇文章以来，我已经和他成为了几十年的朋友。（我刚刚意识到这篇文章是在9/11后两周发表的。）：</blockquote></p><p> <i>“Investors need to heed a few rules when evaluating companies in their portfolio: Cash is king, as cash flow becomes increasingly difficult to judge on an ongoing basis. As such, a simple glance at a company’s balance sheet can tell you a lot about whether it’s worthy of investment. Now that the huge daily run-ups of telco stocks are gone forever, the potential rewards of any business with questionable viability aren’t worth the risk of your capital. Look for real revenue on the books. As tech guru George Gilder and his followers have learned (at least, I hope they have by now), great technology doesn’t translate into a great investment. Companies need sales channels, and they need products for which there are immediate uses. You might be surprised that I didn’t mention profitability in that list. Profitability is naturally important, but even companies like Cisco probably won’t be profitable this quarter and perhaps for several more, as they’ll have to continue aligning capacity, employees and inventory with demand.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“投资者在评估投资组合中的公司时需要注意一些规则：现金为王，因为现金流变得越来越难以持续判断。因此，简单浏览一下公司的资产负债表就可以告诉你很多关于它是否值得投资。既然电信股票每日大幅上涨的情况已经一去不复返了，任何生存能力值得怀疑的企业的潜在回报都不值得你冒资本风险。寻找账面上的实际收入。正如科技大师乔治·吉尔德和他的追随者所认识到的（至少，我希望他们现在已经认识到了），伟大的技术并不能转化为伟大的投资。公司需要销售渠道，他们需要有直接用途的产品。你可能会惊讶我没有在列表中提到盈利能力。盈利能力自然很重要，但即使是像思科这样的公司也可能无法在本季度甚至更长时间内实现盈利，因为他们必须继续根据需求调整产能、员工和库存。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Let me repeat the caveat here: You’ll never see the type of returns, at least in telecom and telecom-tech stocks, that we saw almost daily in the late 1990s. That’s another reason why these tech mutual fund guys, who keep preaching to stay the course, will take forever to get back to even.”</i></p><p><blockquote><i>让我在这里重复一遍警告：你永远不会看到我们在20世纪90年代末几乎每天都能看到的那种回报，至少在电信和电信科技股票中是这样。这就是为什么这些科技共同基金人士不断宣扬坚持到底，却需要很长时间才能恢复平衡的另一个原因。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>The hangover</b></p><p><blockquote><b>宿醉</b></blockquote></p><p> Telecom and telecom-tech stocks never again saw the kind of returns they did back in the late 1990s. I think the same can be said of EV stocks and many other of the favorites that Cathie Wood and her crowd of blind followers are these days plowing into as they put their money to work regardless of valuations.</p><p><blockquote>电信和电信科技股再也没有看到20世纪90年代末那样的回报。我认为电动汽车股票以及凯西·伍德（Cathie Wood）和她的一群盲目追随者最近投入的许多其他最爱股票也是如此，因为他们不顾估值而投入资金。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s what George had to say in 2002:</p><p><blockquote>以下是乔治在2002年所说的话：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>“In retrospect, it’s obvious that I should’ve subtly said, ‘Hey, things have gotten out of hand at JDS Uniphase, and it’s not worth what you’d have to pay for it,’” he says. Each month, he thought about providing a warning to his subscribers, and he decided against it every time. He had witnessed firsthand what others had dubbed the “Gilder effect”: the steep spike in a stock after he added that company to his list. It wasn’t unheard of for the price of a stock to jump by more than 50 percent within an hour of a newsletter’s release. If I had said, ‘Hey, this is a top, you should all sell,’ it would’ve been a cataclysmic event,” he says. “I’d think about telling people that they should sell half their holdings, and each time I’d conclude that my subscribers would be enraged. I also wondered what I’d precipitate if I did it.” Fully 50 percent of his readers had signed up for the report at what Gilder now calls the “hysterical peak” of the market. “Half of my subscribers would have been eternally grateful [for a warning], but the other half – the new ones – would’ve been enraged because they had just come in,” he says. “It was quite terrifying. I really didn’t know what to do.” In the end he did nothing. And soon enough, he had an entirely new set of distractions to fret over. “In the past, we’d sell out our investor conferences within two weeks,” Gilder says. “But in 2001, we sent out the same literature and the same invitations, and five or seven people signed up.” He lost the deposits that were placed to reserve hotel space for the gatherings. Newsletter renewal rates plummeted. A huge tax bill came due. By spring 2002, he’d laid off nearly half of his staff. “You can be just fabulously flush one moment, and then the next, you can’t make that last million-dollar payment to your partners, and there’s suddenly a lien on your house,” he says.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“回想起来，很明显我应该巧妙地说，‘嘿，JDS Uniphase的事情已经失控了，不值得你为此付出代价，’”他说。每个月，他都考虑向他的订户提供警告，但每次他都决定不这样做。他亲眼目睹了其他人所说的“吉尔德效应”：在他将一家公司加入他的名单后，该公司的股票急剧上涨。股票价格在时事通讯发布后一小时内上涨超过50%的情况并非闻所未闻。如果我说，‘嘿，这是一个顶部，你们都应该卖出’，这将是一个灾难性的事件，”他说。“我会考虑告诉人们他们应该卖掉一半的股份，每次我都会得出结论，我的订阅者会被激怒。我也想知道如果我这么做了会导致什么后果。”在吉尔德现在评级的市场“歇斯底里的高峰”，他的读者中有整整50%都报名阅读了这份报告。“我的一半订户会永远感激[警告]，但另一半——新订户——会被激怒，因为他们刚刚进来，”他说。“太可怕了，我真的不知道该怎么办了。”最后他什么也没做。很快，他就有了一系列全新的干扰。“过去，我们的投资者会议会在两周内售罄，”吉尔德说。“但在2001年，我们发出同样的文献，同样的邀请函，就有五七个人报名。”他失去了为聚会预留酒店空间的押金。简讯续订率直线下降。一笔巨额税单到期了。到2002年春天，他已经解雇了近一半的员工。“你可能前一刻还非常富有，下一刻，你就无法向你的合作伙伴支付最后一百万美元，然后你的房子突然就被留置权了，”他说。</i></blockquote></p><p> Many of the best stocks on George’s list at the top in 1999 ended up going down 99% or more. Many went to zero, even as their technologies and ideas carried on and built the internet we all use every day now.</p><p><blockquote>1999年乔治排行榜上名列前茅的许多最佳股票最终下跌了99%或更多。许多人归零，即使他们的技术和想法继续发展，并建立了我们现在每天都在使用的互联网。</blockquote></p><p> CCIV is likely a harbinger of more pain for those who ignore valuations and fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些忽视估值和基本面的人来说，CCIV可能预示着更多痛苦。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The days of easy money in the stock market are now over<blockquote>股市轻松赚钱的日子现已结束</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe days of easy money in the stock market are now over<blockquote>股市轻松赚钱的日子现已结束</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-24 17:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Get ready for a return to normal. Lucid’s SPAC and ARK Invest’s ETFs carry the whiff of the late-1990s technology bubble.</p><p><blockquote>准备好恢复正常吧。Lucid的SPAC和ARK Invest的ETF带有20世纪90年代末科技泡沫的气息。</blockquote></p><p> Ignore stock valuations and companies’ fundamentals at your peril.</p><p><blockquote>忽视股票估值和公司基本面，后果自负。</blockquote></p><p> Churchill Capital Corp. ,a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) that had been rumored to merge with a Tesla-wannabe, Lucid Motors, finally announced Monday night that it is indeed going to do so. And in a classic Wall Street reaction, the market “sold the news” after long having “bought the rumor.”</p><p><blockquote>Churchill Capital Corp.是一家特殊目的收购公司（SPAC），曾有传言称将与特斯拉的追随者Lucid Motors合并，周一晚上终于宣布确实会这样做。在华尔街的典型反应中，市场在长期“买入谣言”后“卖出消息”。</blockquote></p><p> CCIV was up 500% from when it went public as a blank-check company, and today the stock market has wiped half of what its market value was perceived to be Monday at noon. This is a stock that I had warned about earlier this month as one of the many “Random Number Generators” (RNGs) that should be avoided. People and institutions who had for weeks been buying CCIV at $40, $50, $60 or even $70 per share have suddenly seen a huge wipeout of value.</p><p><blockquote>CCIV较作为空白支票公司上市时上涨了500%，今天股市已经抹去了周一中午预期市值的一半。本月早些时候，我曾警告过这只股票是应避免的众多“随机数生成器”(RNG)之一。几周来一直以每股40美元、50美元、60美元甚至70美元的价格购买CCIV的人和机构突然发现价值大幅缩水。</blockquote></p><p> They’re now, maybe, looking around at their other RNG SPACs and wondering if they should actually look at the valuations.</p><p><blockquote>他们现在可能正在环顾其他RNG SPAC，并想知道是否真的应该看看估值。</blockquote></p><p> Reviewing this week’s ugly stock-market action in a broader context, you might note that Tesla Inc. at $900 — after the company reported a not-so-great quarter that included some questions about gross margin expansion — is looking like it could have been a top-maker itself.</p><p><blockquote>在更广泛的背景下回顾本周丑陋的股市走势，您可能会注意到，特斯拉公司的股价为900美元——此前该公司报告了一个不太好的季度，其中包括一些有关毛利率扩张的问题——看起来可能已经是顶级制造商本身。</blockquote></p><p> Many questionable EV stocks continued to rally for a week or two before getting their comeuppance this week. At least for a day or two. It will be interesting to look back in a month to see what the non-TSLA EV stocks do from here. I expect most to move much lower even than today’s quotes, which are much lower than last week’s quotes.</p><p><blockquote>许多有问题的电动汽车股票在本周受到惩罚之前持续上涨了一两周。至少一两天。一个月后回顾一下非特斯拉电动汽车股票的表现将会很有趣。我预计大多数价格甚至会比今天的报价低得多，今天的报价比上周的报价低得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Piling into ARK</b></p><p><blockquote><b>堆积成方舟</b></blockquote></p><p> These days everybody wants to be Cathie Wood from ARK Invest. She was an early bull on Tesla and bitcoinBTCUSD,6.03%and some of the the other themes that long-time followers of mine and I got into even earlier than she did. Her actively managed ETF, ARK Innovation ETF being the most famous, has performed very well, and her commentary has been spot on for a couple years now.</p><p><blockquote>如今，每个人都想成为方舟投资公司的凯西·伍德。她是特斯拉和比特币BTCUSD、6.03%以及我和我的长期追随者甚至比她更早进入的其他一些主题的早期看涨者。她的主动管理型ETF（最著名的ARK Innovation ETF）表现非常好，几年来她的评论一直准确无误。</blockquote></p><p> But I have bad news. Even as I am a fan of Cathie’s and wish her and her investors all the best, I can’t help but think of the story of George Gilder, with whom I’ve become friends in the decades since I wrote this in 2001 for TheStreet.com. (I just realized this article was published just two weeks after 9/11.):</p><p><blockquote>但我有个坏消息。尽管我是Cathie's的粉丝并祝愿她和她的投资者一切顺利，但我还是忍不住想起了乔治·吉尔德(George Gilder)的故事，自从我2001年为TheStreet.com撰写这篇文章以来，我已经和他成为了几十年的朋友。（我刚刚意识到这篇文章是在9/11后两周发表的。）：</blockquote></p><p> <i>“Investors need to heed a few rules when evaluating companies in their portfolio: Cash is king, as cash flow becomes increasingly difficult to judge on an ongoing basis. As such, a simple glance at a company’s balance sheet can tell you a lot about whether it’s worthy of investment. Now that the huge daily run-ups of telco stocks are gone forever, the potential rewards of any business with questionable viability aren’t worth the risk of your capital. Look for real revenue on the books. As tech guru George Gilder and his followers have learned (at least, I hope they have by now), great technology doesn’t translate into a great investment. Companies need sales channels, and they need products for which there are immediate uses. You might be surprised that I didn’t mention profitability in that list. Profitability is naturally important, but even companies like Cisco probably won’t be profitable this quarter and perhaps for several more, as they’ll have to continue aligning capacity, employees and inventory with demand.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“投资者在评估投资组合中的公司时需要注意一些规则：现金为王，因为现金流变得越来越难以持续判断。因此，简单浏览一下公司的资产负债表就可以告诉你很多关于它是否值得投资。既然电信股票每日大幅上涨的情况已经一去不复返了，任何生存能力值得怀疑的企业的潜在回报都不值得你冒资本风险。寻找账面上的实际收入。正如科技大师乔治·吉尔德和他的追随者所认识到的（至少，我希望他们现在已经认识到了），伟大的技术并不能转化为伟大的投资。公司需要销售渠道，他们需要有直接用途的产品。你可能会惊讶我没有在列表中提到盈利能力。盈利能力自然很重要，但即使是像思科这样的公司也可能无法在本季度甚至更长时间内实现盈利，因为他们必须继续根据需求调整产能、员工和库存。</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Let me repeat the caveat here: You’ll never see the type of returns, at least in telecom and telecom-tech stocks, that we saw almost daily in the late 1990s. That’s another reason why these tech mutual fund guys, who keep preaching to stay the course, will take forever to get back to even.”</i></p><p><blockquote><i>让我在这里重复一遍警告：你永远不会看到我们在20世纪90年代末几乎每天都能看到的那种回报，至少在电信和电信科技股票中是这样。这就是为什么这些科技共同基金人士不断宣扬坚持到底，却需要很长时间才能恢复平衡的另一个原因。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>The hangover</b></p><p><blockquote><b>宿醉</b></blockquote></p><p> Telecom and telecom-tech stocks never again saw the kind of returns they did back in the late 1990s. I think the same can be said of EV stocks and many other of the favorites that Cathie Wood and her crowd of blind followers are these days plowing into as they put their money to work regardless of valuations.</p><p><blockquote>电信和电信科技股再也没有看到20世纪90年代末那样的回报。我认为电动汽车股票以及凯西·伍德（Cathie Wood）和她的一群盲目追随者最近投入的许多其他最爱股票也是如此，因为他们不顾估值而投入资金。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s what George had to say in 2002:</p><p><blockquote>以下是乔治在2002年所说的话：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>“In retrospect, it’s obvious that I should’ve subtly said, ‘Hey, things have gotten out of hand at JDS Uniphase, and it’s not worth what you’d have to pay for it,’” he says. Each month, he thought about providing a warning to his subscribers, and he decided against it every time. He had witnessed firsthand what others had dubbed the “Gilder effect”: the steep spike in a stock after he added that company to his list. It wasn’t unheard of for the price of a stock to jump by more than 50 percent within an hour of a newsletter’s release. If I had said, ‘Hey, this is a top, you should all sell,’ it would’ve been a cataclysmic event,” he says. “I’d think about telling people that they should sell half their holdings, and each time I’d conclude that my subscribers would be enraged. I also wondered what I’d precipitate if I did it.” Fully 50 percent of his readers had signed up for the report at what Gilder now calls the “hysterical peak” of the market. “Half of my subscribers would have been eternally grateful [for a warning], but the other half – the new ones – would’ve been enraged because they had just come in,” he says. “It was quite terrifying. I really didn’t know what to do.” In the end he did nothing. And soon enough, he had an entirely new set of distractions to fret over. “In the past, we’d sell out our investor conferences within two weeks,” Gilder says. “But in 2001, we sent out the same literature and the same invitations, and five or seven people signed up.” He lost the deposits that were placed to reserve hotel space for the gatherings. Newsletter renewal rates plummeted. A huge tax bill came due. By spring 2002, he’d laid off nearly half of his staff. “You can be just fabulously flush one moment, and then the next, you can’t make that last million-dollar payment to your partners, and there’s suddenly a lien on your house,” he says.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“回想起来，很明显我应该巧妙地说，‘嘿，JDS Uniphase的事情已经失控了，不值得你为此付出代价，’”他说。每个月，他都考虑向他的订户提供警告，但每次他都决定不这样做。他亲眼目睹了其他人所说的“吉尔德效应”：在他将一家公司加入他的名单后，该公司的股票急剧上涨。股票价格在时事通讯发布后一小时内上涨超过50%的情况并非闻所未闻。如果我说，‘嘿，这是一个顶部，你们都应该卖出’，这将是一个灾难性的事件，”他说。“我会考虑告诉人们他们应该卖掉一半的股份，每次我都会得出结论，我的订阅者会被激怒。我也想知道如果我这么做了会导致什么后果。”在吉尔德现在评级的市场“歇斯底里的高峰”，他的读者中有整整50%都报名阅读了这份报告。“我的一半订户会永远感激[警告]，但另一半——新订户——会被激怒，因为他们刚刚进来，”他说。“太可怕了，我真的不知道该怎么办了。”最后他什么也没做。很快，他就有了一系列全新的干扰。“过去，我们的投资者会议会在两周内售罄，”吉尔德说。“但在2001年，我们发出同样的文献，同样的邀请函，就有五七个人报名。”他失去了为聚会预留酒店空间的押金。简讯续订率直线下降。一笔巨额税单到期了。到2002年春天，他已经解雇了近一半的员工。“你可能前一刻还非常富有，下一刻，你就无法向你的合作伙伴支付最后一百万美元，然后你的房子突然就被留置权了，”他说。</i></blockquote></p><p> Many of the best stocks on George’s list at the top in 1999 ended up going down 99% or more. Many went to zero, even as their technologies and ideas carried on and built the internet we all use every day now.</p><p><blockquote>1999年乔治排行榜上名列前茅的许多最佳股票最终下跌了99%或更多。许多人归零，即使他们的技术和想法继续发展，并建立了我们现在每天都在使用的互联网。</blockquote></p><p> CCIV is likely a harbinger of more pain for those who ignore valuations and fundamentals.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些忽视估值和基本面的人来说，CCIV可能预示着更多痛苦。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-days-of-easy-money-in-the-stock-market-are-now-over-11614104263?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF","TSLA":"特斯拉",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-days-of-easy-money-in-the-stock-market-are-now-over-11614104263?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1197533827","content_text":"Get ready for a return to normal. Lucid’s SPAC and ARK Invest’s ETFs carry the whiff of the late-1990s technology bubble.\nIgnore stock valuations and companies’ fundamentals at your peril.\nChurchill Capital Corp. ,a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) that had been rumored to merge with a Tesla-wannabe, Lucid Motors, finally announced Monday night that it is indeed going to do so. And in a classic Wall Street reaction, the market “sold the news” after long having “bought the rumor.”\nCCIV was up 500% from when it went public as a blank-check company, and today the stock market has wiped half of what its market value was perceived to be Monday at noon. This is a stock that I had warned about earlier this month as one of the many “Random Number Generators” (RNGs) that should be avoided. People and institutions who had for weeks been buying CCIV at $40, $50, $60 or even $70 per share have suddenly seen a huge wipeout of value.\nThey’re now, maybe, looking around at their other RNG SPACs and wondering if they should actually look at the valuations.\nReviewing this week’s ugly stock-market action in a broader context, you might note that Tesla Inc. at $900 — after the company reported a not-so-great quarter that included some questions about gross margin expansion — is looking like it could have been a top-maker itself.\nMany questionable EV stocks continued to rally for a week or two before getting their comeuppance this week. At least for a day or two. It will be interesting to look back in a month to see what the non-TSLA EV stocks do from here. I expect most to move much lower even than today’s quotes, which are much lower than last week’s quotes.\nPiling into ARK\nThese days everybody wants to be Cathie Wood from ARK Invest. She was an early bull on Tesla and bitcoinBTCUSD,6.03%and some of the the other themes that long-time followers of mine and I got into even earlier than she did. Her actively managed ETF, ARK Innovation ETF being the most famous, has performed very well, and her commentary has been spot on for a couple years now.\nBut I have bad news. Even as I am a fan of Cathie’s and wish her and her investors all the best, I can’t help but think of the story of George Gilder, with whom I’ve become friends in the decades since I wrote this in 2001 for TheStreet.com. (I just realized this article was published just two weeks after 9/11.):\n“Investors need to heed a few rules when evaluating companies in their portfolio: Cash is king, as cash flow becomes increasingly difficult to judge on an ongoing basis. As such, a simple glance at a company’s balance sheet can tell you a lot about whether it’s worthy of investment. Now that the huge daily run-ups of telco stocks are gone forever, the potential rewards of any business with questionable viability aren’t worth the risk of your capital. Look for real revenue on the books. As tech guru George Gilder and his followers have learned (at least, I hope they have by now), great technology doesn’t translate into a great investment. Companies need sales channels, and they need products for which there are immediate uses. You might be surprised that I didn’t mention profitability in that list. Profitability is naturally important, but even companies like Cisco probably won’t be profitable this quarter and perhaps for several more, as they’ll have to continue aligning capacity, employees and inventory with demand.\nLet me repeat the caveat here: You’ll never see the type of returns, at least in telecom and telecom-tech stocks, that we saw almost daily in the late 1990s. That’s another reason why these tech mutual fund guys, who keep preaching to stay the course, will take forever to get back to even.”\nThe hangover\nTelecom and telecom-tech stocks never again saw the kind of returns they did back in the late 1990s. I think the same can be said of EV stocks and many other of the favorites that Cathie Wood and her crowd of blind followers are these days plowing into as they put their money to work regardless of valuations.\nHere’s what George had to say in 2002:\n“In retrospect, it’s obvious that I should’ve subtly said, ‘Hey, things have gotten out of hand at JDS Uniphase, and it’s not worth what you’d have to pay for it,’” he says. Each month, he thought about providing a warning to his subscribers, and he decided against it every time. He had witnessed firsthand what others had dubbed the “Gilder effect”: the steep spike in a stock after he added that company to his list. It wasn’t unheard of for the price of a stock to jump by more than 50 percent within an hour of a newsletter’s release. If I had said, ‘Hey, this is a top, you should all sell,’ it would’ve been a cataclysmic event,” he says. “I’d think about telling people that they should sell half their holdings, and each time I’d conclude that my subscribers would be enraged. I also wondered what I’d precipitate if I did it.” Fully 50 percent of his readers had signed up for the report at what Gilder now calls the “hysterical peak” of the market. “Half of my subscribers would have been eternally grateful [for a warning], but the other half – the new ones – would’ve been enraged because they had just come in,” he says. “It was quite terrifying. I really didn’t know what to do.” In the end he did nothing. And soon enough, he had an entirely new set of distractions to fret over. “In the past, we’d sell out our investor conferences within two weeks,” Gilder says. “But in 2001, we sent out the same literature and the same invitations, and five or seven people signed up.” He lost the deposits that were placed to reserve hotel space for the gatherings. Newsletter renewal rates plummeted. A huge tax bill came due. By spring 2002, he’d laid off nearly half of his staff. “You can be just fabulously flush one moment, and then the next, you can’t make that last million-dollar payment to your partners, and there’s suddenly a lien on your house,” he says.\nMany of the best stocks on George’s list at the top in 1999 ended up going down 99% or more. Many went to zero, even as their technologies and ideas carried on and built the internet we all use every day now.\nCCIV is likely a harbinger of more pain for those who ignore valuations and fundamentals.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"ARKK":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2524,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":368887754,"gmtCreate":1614308422378,"gmtModify":1703476147892,"author":{"id":"3551276051261213","authorId":"3551276051261213","name":"顾北哲","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/547dd0e81f53759d860ddd3a4b0ee70b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3551276051261213","authorIdStr":"3551276051261213"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What are some of the more reasonably valued tech companies?","listText":"What are some of the more reasonably valued tech companies?","text":"What are some of the more reasonably valued tech companies?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368887754","repostId":"1185609211","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1185609211","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614139419,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1185609211?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-24 12:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why the Plunge in More Speculative Tech Stocks Might Not Be Over Yet<blockquote>为什么投机性更强的科技股的暴跌可能尚未结束</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185609211","media":"TheStreet","summary":"High valuations, margin debt and the ARK effect could lead to more pain for some names. But the sell","content":"<p>High valuations, margin debt and the ARK effect could lead to more pain for some names. But the selloff could also create buying opportunities in other tech companies.</p><p><blockquote>高估值、保证金债务和方舟效应可能会给一些公司带来更多痛苦。但抛售也可能为其他科技公司创造买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> While many speculative Robinhood favorites are down sharply over the last couple of weeks, they're still often well above where they traded two or three months ago, and arguably remain quite overvalued on the whole.</p><p><blockquote>尽管许多投机性的Robinhood最爱在过去几周大幅下跌，但它们通常仍远高于两三个月前的交易水平，并且可以说总体上仍然被高估。</blockquote></p><p> For example, while fuel cell plays Plug Power (PLUG) , FuelCell Energy (FCEL) and Ballard Power (BLDP) are now down 40%, 44% and 32%, respectively, from recently-set highs, they're still 67%, 92% and 33% from where they closed three months ago. And they each still sport forward sales multiples north of 40.</p><p><blockquote>例如，虽然燃料电池公司普拉格能源(PLUG)、燃料电池能源(FCEL)和巴拉德电力(BLDP)目前分别较最近创下的高点下跌40%、44%和32%，但仍为67%，较三个月前收盘时分别上涨92%和33%。它们的预期销售倍数仍超过40。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, 3D printing plays 3D Systems (DDD) , Stratasys (SSYS) and ExOne (XONE) remain up 357%, 147% and 215%, respectively, over the last three months. EV plays QuantumScape (QS) and Luminar Technologies (LAZR) are up 150% and 123%, respectively, over the last three months and still sport sky-high valuations -- QuantumScape, which doesn't expect to see its solid-state battery enter production until 2024, is still worth $20 billion. And soon-to-merge cannabis plays Tilray (TLRY) and Aphria (APHA) are up 252% and 171%, respectively, and maintain double-digit forward sales multiples.</p><p><blockquote>同样，3D打印领域3D Systems(DDD)、Stratasys(SSYS)和ExOne(XONE)在过去三个月中分别增长了357%、147%和215%。电动汽车公司QuantumScape(QS)和Luminar Technologies(LAZR)在过去三个月中分别上涨了150%和123%，并且估值仍然很高——QuantumScape预计不会推出固态电池2024年投入生产，价值仍为200亿美元。即将合并的大麻公司Tilray(TLRY)和Aphria(APHA)分别上涨252%和171%，并保持两位数的远期销售倍数。</blockquote></p><p> In a nutshell, valuations are still generally stretched for some companies, and some investors still have large paper profits that they could turn into real profits if the current selling unnerves them. In addition, judging bythe spike seenin margin debt balances over the last few months, many newer investors in these companies could be forced to unload their positions due to margin calls if the selling continues.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，一些公司的估值仍然普遍过高，一些投资者仍然拥有大量账面利润，如果当前的抛售让他们感到不安，他们可以将这些利润转化为实际利润。此外，从过去几个月保证金债务余额的飙升来看，如果抛售继续下去，这些公司的许多新投资者可能会因保证金评级而被迫抛售头寸。</blockquote></p><p> Also, asothers have pointed out, ARK Invest's trading activity could go from being a tailwind for various high-multiple tech stocks to a headwind. In recent months, giant retail investor inflows for the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) and other ARK funds have contributed to the huge rallies seen in various clean energy, 3D printing, software/cloud and biotech names that ARK has been partial to. Conversely, though, major outflows for ARK funds could make the selling pressure in such names during a selloff stronger than it otherwise would be.</p><p><blockquote>此外，其他人指出，ARK Invest的交易活动可能会从各种高市盈率科技股的顺风变成逆风。近几个月来，ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)和其他ARK基金的巨额散户投资者资金流入推动了ARK偏爱的各种清洁能源、3D打印、软件/云和生物技术公司的大幅上涨。但相反，方舟基金的大量资金外流可能会使此类股票在抛售期间面临比其他情况下更大的抛售压力。</blockquote></p><p> With all that said,I'm not sold at this point on the current selloff being the start of a bear market for tech stocks overall.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，我目前并不相信当前的抛售是科技股整体熊市的开始。</blockquote></p><p> In spite of the speculative frenzy in some corners of tech, quite a few quality tech names remain moderately-valued or just a little expensive right now. And between vaccine rollouts, elevated household savings levels and the likely arrival of additional stimulus in March, the macro backdrop still looks favorable, though it's possible that some stay-at-home plays see demand cool off a bit in the coming months.</p><p><blockquote>尽管科技领域的某些领域存在投机狂潮，但相当多优质科技公司目前仍处于中等估值或只是有点贵。在疫苗的推出、家庭储蓄水平的提高以及三月份可能出台的额外刺激措施之间，宏观背景看起来仍然有利，尽管一些居家度假的需求可能会在未来几个月有所降温。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Eventually</i>, inflation, higher bond yields and a tightening Fed could become a problem for tech stocks in general. But we still appear to be a ways away from reaching that point, and for now, the Fed remains as accommodative as ever.</p><p><blockquote><i>最终</i>、通胀、债券收益率上升和美联储收紧政策可能会成为科技股的总体问题。但我们似乎距离达到这一点还有很长的路要走，就目前而言，美联储仍然一如既往地宽松。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, if the current tech rout continues and leads both very expensive and not-so-expensive companies to see more selling pressure, the risk/reward could start looking very good for some of the more reasonably-priced names.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果当前的科技股溃败持续下去，导致非常昂贵和不太昂贵的公司面临更大的抛售压力，那么对于一些价格更合理的公司来说，风险/回报可能会开始看起来非常好。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why the Plunge in More Speculative Tech Stocks Might Not Be Over Yet<blockquote>为什么投机性更强的科技股的暴跌可能尚未结束</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy the Plunge in More Speculative Tech Stocks Might Not Be Over Yet<blockquote>为什么投机性更强的科技股的暴跌可能尚未结束</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-24 12:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>High valuations, margin debt and the ARK effect could lead to more pain for some names. But the selloff could also create buying opportunities in other tech companies.</p><p><blockquote>高估值、保证金债务和方舟效应可能会给一些公司带来更多痛苦。但抛售也可能为其他科技公司创造买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> While many speculative Robinhood favorites are down sharply over the last couple of weeks, they're still often well above where they traded two or three months ago, and arguably remain quite overvalued on the whole.</p><p><blockquote>尽管许多投机性的Robinhood最爱在过去几周大幅下跌，但它们通常仍远高于两三个月前的交易水平，并且可以说总体上仍然被高估。</blockquote></p><p> For example, while fuel cell plays Plug Power (PLUG) , FuelCell Energy (FCEL) and Ballard Power (BLDP) are now down 40%, 44% and 32%, respectively, from recently-set highs, they're still 67%, 92% and 33% from where they closed three months ago. And they each still sport forward sales multiples north of 40.</p><p><blockquote>例如，虽然燃料电池公司普拉格能源(PLUG)、燃料电池能源(FCEL)和巴拉德电力(BLDP)目前分别较最近创下的高点下跌40%、44%和32%，但仍为67%，较三个月前收盘时分别上涨92%和33%。它们的预期销售倍数仍超过40。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, 3D printing plays 3D Systems (DDD) , Stratasys (SSYS) and ExOne (XONE) remain up 357%, 147% and 215%, respectively, over the last three months. EV plays QuantumScape (QS) and Luminar Technologies (LAZR) are up 150% and 123%, respectively, over the last three months and still sport sky-high valuations -- QuantumScape, which doesn't expect to see its solid-state battery enter production until 2024, is still worth $20 billion. And soon-to-merge cannabis plays Tilray (TLRY) and Aphria (APHA) are up 252% and 171%, respectively, and maintain double-digit forward sales multiples.</p><p><blockquote>同样，3D打印领域3D Systems(DDD)、Stratasys(SSYS)和ExOne(XONE)在过去三个月中分别增长了357%、147%和215%。电动汽车公司QuantumScape(QS)和Luminar Technologies(LAZR)在过去三个月中分别上涨了150%和123%，并且估值仍然很高——QuantumScape预计不会推出固态电池2024年投入生产，价值仍为200亿美元。即将合并的大麻公司Tilray(TLRY)和Aphria(APHA)分别上涨252%和171%，并保持两位数的远期销售倍数。</blockquote></p><p> In a nutshell, valuations are still generally stretched for some companies, and some investors still have large paper profits that they could turn into real profits if the current selling unnerves them. In addition, judging bythe spike seenin margin debt balances over the last few months, many newer investors in these companies could be forced to unload their positions due to margin calls if the selling continues.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，一些公司的估值仍然普遍过高，一些投资者仍然拥有大量账面利润，如果当前的抛售让他们感到不安，他们可以将这些利润转化为实际利润。此外，从过去几个月保证金债务余额的飙升来看，如果抛售继续下去，这些公司的许多新投资者可能会因保证金评级而被迫抛售头寸。</blockquote></p><p> Also, asothers have pointed out, ARK Invest's trading activity could go from being a tailwind for various high-multiple tech stocks to a headwind. In recent months, giant retail investor inflows for the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) and other ARK funds have contributed to the huge rallies seen in various clean energy, 3D printing, software/cloud and biotech names that ARK has been partial to. Conversely, though, major outflows for ARK funds could make the selling pressure in such names during a selloff stronger than it otherwise would be.</p><p><blockquote>此外，其他人指出，ARK Invest的交易活动可能会从各种高市盈率科技股的顺风变成逆风。近几个月来，ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)和其他ARK基金的巨额散户投资者资金流入推动了ARK偏爱的各种清洁能源、3D打印、软件/云和生物技术公司的大幅上涨。但相反，方舟基金的大量资金外流可能会使此类股票在抛售期间面临比其他情况下更大的抛售压力。</blockquote></p><p> With all that said,I'm not sold at this point on the current selloff being the start of a bear market for tech stocks overall.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，我目前并不相信当前的抛售是科技股整体熊市的开始。</blockquote></p><p> In spite of the speculative frenzy in some corners of tech, quite a few quality tech names remain moderately-valued or just a little expensive right now. And between vaccine rollouts, elevated household savings levels and the likely arrival of additional stimulus in March, the macro backdrop still looks favorable, though it's possible that some stay-at-home plays see demand cool off a bit in the coming months.</p><p><blockquote>尽管科技领域的某些领域存在投机狂潮，但相当多优质科技公司目前仍处于中等估值或只是有点贵。在疫苗的推出、家庭储蓄水平的提高以及三月份可能出台的额外刺激措施之间，宏观背景看起来仍然有利，尽管一些居家度假的需求可能会在未来几个月有所降温。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Eventually</i>, inflation, higher bond yields and a tightening Fed could become a problem for tech stocks in general. But we still appear to be a ways away from reaching that point, and for now, the Fed remains as accommodative as ever.</p><p><blockquote><i>最终</i>、通胀、债券收益率上升和美联储收紧政策可能会成为科技股的总体问题。但我们似乎距离达到这一点还有很长的路要走，就目前而言，美联储仍然一如既往地宽松。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, if the current tech rout continues and leads both very expensive and not-so-expensive companies to see more selling pressure, the risk/reward could start looking very good for some of the more reasonably-priced names.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果当前的科技股溃败持续下去，导致非常昂贵和不太昂贵的公司面临更大的抛售压力，那么对于一些价格更合理的公司来说，风险/回报可能会开始看起来非常好。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/technology/why-the-plunge-in-more-speculative-tech-stocks-might-not-be-over-yet-15575838\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"APHA":"Aphria Inc.","BLDP":"巴拉德动力系统","XONE":"BondBloxx Bloomberg One Year Target Duration US Treasury ETF","PLUG":"普拉格能源","TLRY":"Tilray Inc.","QS":"Quantumscape Corp.","SSYS":"Stratasys","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF","FCEL":"燃料电池能源","DDD":"3D系统"},"source_url":"https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/technology/why-the-plunge-in-more-speculative-tech-stocks-might-not-be-over-yet-15575838","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185609211","content_text":"High valuations, margin debt and the ARK effect could lead to more pain for some names. But the selloff could also create buying opportunities in other tech companies.\nWhile many speculative Robinhood favorites are down sharply over the last couple of weeks, they're still often well above where they traded two or three months ago, and arguably remain quite overvalued on the whole.\nFor example, while fuel cell plays Plug Power (PLUG) , FuelCell Energy (FCEL) and Ballard Power (BLDP) are now down 40%, 44% and 32%, respectively, from recently-set highs, they're still 67%, 92% and 33% from where they closed three months ago. And they each still sport forward sales multiples north of 40.\nLikewise, 3D printing plays 3D Systems (DDD) , Stratasys (SSYS) and ExOne (XONE) remain up 357%, 147% and 215%, respectively, over the last three months. EV plays QuantumScape (QS) and Luminar Technologies (LAZR) are up 150% and 123%, respectively, over the last three months and still sport sky-high valuations -- QuantumScape, which doesn't expect to see its solid-state battery enter production until 2024, is still worth $20 billion. And soon-to-merge cannabis plays Tilray (TLRY) and Aphria (APHA) are up 252% and 171%, respectively, and maintain double-digit forward sales multiples.\nIn a nutshell, valuations are still generally stretched for some companies, and some investors still have large paper profits that they could turn into real profits if the current selling unnerves them. In addition, judging bythe spike seenin margin debt balances over the last few months, many newer investors in these companies could be forced to unload their positions due to margin calls if the selling continues.\nAlso, asothers have pointed out, ARK Invest's trading activity could go from being a tailwind for various high-multiple tech stocks to a headwind. In recent months, giant retail investor inflows for the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) and other ARK funds have contributed to the huge rallies seen in various clean energy, 3D printing, software/cloud and biotech names that ARK has been partial to. Conversely, though, major outflows for ARK funds could make the selling pressure in such names during a selloff stronger than it otherwise would be.\nWith all that said,I'm not sold at this point on the current selloff being the start of a bear market for tech stocks overall.\nIn spite of the speculative frenzy in some corners of tech, quite a few quality tech names remain moderately-valued or just a little expensive right now. And between vaccine rollouts, elevated household savings levels and the likely arrival of additional stimulus in March, the macro backdrop still looks favorable, though it's possible that some stay-at-home plays see demand cool off a bit in the coming months.\nEventually, inflation, higher bond yields and a tightening Fed could become a problem for tech stocks in general. But we still appear to be a ways away from reaching that point, and for now, the Fed remains as accommodative as ever.\nAs a result, if the current tech rout continues and leads both very expensive and not-so-expensive companies to see more selling pressure, the risk/reward could start looking very good for some of the more reasonably-priced names.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LAZR":0.9,"PLUG":0.9,"QS":0.9,"TLRY":0.9,"APHA":0.9,"FCEL":0.9,"SSYS":0.9,"DDD":0.9,"ARKK":0.9,"XONE":0.9,"BLDP":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3476,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":363413040,"gmtCreate":1614162758180,"gmtModify":1614162758180,"author":{"id":"3551276051261213","authorId":"3551276051261213","name":"顾北哲","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/547dd0e81f53759d860ddd3a4b0ee70b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3551276051261213","authorIdStr":"3551276051261213"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"接吻拥抱算你🐴的软色情，一点欲望都没有出家去得了","listText":"接吻拥抱算你🐴的软色情，一点欲望都没有出家去得了","text":"接吻拥抱算你🐴的软色情，一点欲望都没有出家去得了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363413040","repostId":"2113251357","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3769,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":369583494,"gmtCreate":1614058721618,"gmtModify":1614060783682,"author":{"id":"3551276051261213","authorId":"3551276051261213","name":"顾北哲","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/547dd0e81f53759d860ddd3a4b0ee70b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3551276051261213","authorIdStr":"3551276051261213"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"0.1% really isn’t a big deal. If you buy and sell $1 million worth of asset you only need to pay 2000. That’s not much at all.","listText":"0.1% really isn’t a big deal. If you buy and sell $1 million worth of asset you only need to pay 2000. That’s not much at all.","text":"0.1% really isn’t a big deal. If you buy and sell $1 million worth of asset you only need to pay 2000. That’s not much at all.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/369583494","repostId":"1129494437","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1129494437","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614048165,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129494437?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-23 10:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"After the GameStop fiasco, momentum builds for an $800 billion tax<blockquote>游戏驿站惨败后，8000亿美元税收势头增强</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129494437","media":"CNN Business","summary":"New York (CNN Business)-Uncle Sam is in search for a pot of gold that could ease the pain of trillio","content":"<p><b>New York (CNN Business)-</b>Uncle Sam is in search for a pot of gold that could ease the pain of trillion-dollar deficits. And some believe Wall Street might just have the answer.</p><p><blockquote><b>纽约（CNN商业）——</b>山姆大叔正在寻找一桶金来缓解数万亿美元赤字的痛苦。一些人认为华尔街可能有答案。</blockquote></p><p> For more than a decade, progressives have tried and failed to impose a financial transaction tax.But there is new momentum for such a levy as the national debt skyrockets during the pandemic and in the wake of the GameStop trading frenzy that shined a bright light market structure concerns.</p><p><blockquote>十多年来，进步人士一直试图征收金融交易税，但都失败了。但随着疫情期间国债飙升以及游戏驿站交易狂潮引发市场结构担忧，此类征税出现了新的动力。</blockquote></p><p> The White House told CNN Business on Sunday that a financial transaction tax on GameStop-like trading deserves additional study and can be part of a greater evaluation of such a tax for revenue and market stability. The leading proposal amounts to a $1 tax on every $1,000 of transactions.</p><p><blockquote>白宫周日告诉CNN Business，对类似游戏驿站的交易征收金融交易税值得进一步研究，并且可以成为对此类税收的收入和市场稳定进行更大评估的一部分。主要提案相当于对每1000美元的交易征收1美元的税。</blockquote></p><p> But there is a deep divide over the wisdom of a financial transaction tax. Progressives see it as a smart way to simultaneously curb predatory trading while funding ambitious programs aimed at easing America's inequality problem.Opponents, on the other hand, paint a financial transaction tax (FTT) as a nightmare. Wall Street, which would take a hit, is already warning such a levy would backfire on Main Street by raising trading costs and depressing market liquidity.</p><p><blockquote>但对于金融交易税的明智性存在很大分歧。进步人士认为这是一种明智的方式，可以同时遏制掠夺性交易，同时为旨在缓解美国不平等问题的雄心勃勃的计划提供资金。另一方面，反对者将金融交易税（FTT）描绘成一场噩梦。将受到打击的华尔街已经警告称，此类征税将提高交易成本并抑制市场流动性，从而对大街产生适得其反的效果。</blockquote></p><p> \"The odds are still against a financial transaction tax being enacted, but for the first time in a decade this proposal should be considered as a viable policy option rather than just another talking point,\" said Isaac Boltansky, director of policy research at Compass Point Research & Trading.</p><p><blockquote>Compass Point政策研究总监艾萨克·博尔坦斯基(Isaac Boltansky)表示：“颁布金融交易税的可能性仍然很小，但十年来第一次，这项提案应该被视为一种可行的政策选择，而不仅仅是另一个话题。”研究与交易。</blockquote></p><p> Last week, House Financial Services Chairwoman Maxine Waters said she's \"very interested\" and \"certainly looking at\" a financial transaction tax.</p><p><blockquote>上周，众议院金融服务主席玛克辛·沃特斯表示，她“非常感兴趣”并且“肯定会考虑”金融交易税。</blockquote></p><p> <b>'Mindboggling' concentration of wealth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“令人难以置信”的财富集中</b></blockquote></p><p> Lawmakers will surely be tempted to tax transactions because it could raise vast sums of money at a time when Washington is strapped for cash.</p><p><blockquote>立法者肯定会被诱惑对交易征税，因为在华盛顿现金短缺的时候，这可能会筹集巨额资金。</blockquote></p><p> A 0.1% tax on stock, bond and derivative transactions could raise $777 billion for the federal government over a decade, according to a 2018 estimate by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.</p><p><blockquote>根据无党派国会预算办公室2018年的估计，对股票、债券和衍生品交易征收0.1%的税可以在十年内为联邦政府筹集7770亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> \"We have tremendous income inequality in our society and a giant deficit. A financial transaction tax would be an incredibly efficient and progressive way to raise revenue,\" Aaron Klein, a former Treasury Department official in the Obama administration, told CNN Business.</p><p><blockquote>奥巴马政府前财政部官员亚伦·克莱因(Aaron Klein)告诉CNN Business：“我们的社会存在巨大的收入不平等和巨额赤字。金融交易税将是一种非常有效和渐进的增加收入的方式。”</blockquote></p><p> The top 1% of American households would pay 40% of the total amount of the tax, while the bottom 60% would pay just over 11%, according to the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center.</p><p><blockquote>根据Urban-Brookings税收政策中心的数据，收入最高的1%的美国家庭将支付总额的40%，而收入最低的60%的家庭将支付略高于11%的税收。</blockquote></p><p> That makes sense because the wealthiest 10% of US households owned 87% of all stocks and mutual funds, according to 2020 data from the Federal Reserve.</p><p><blockquote>这是有道理的，因为根据美联储2020年的数据，美国最富有的10%家庭拥有87%的股票和共同基金。</blockquote></p><p> \"The concentration of wealth in the stock market is mindboggling,\" said Klein, who is now a senior fellow of economic studies at the Brookings Institution.</p><p><blockquote>“财富集中在股市令人难以置信，”现任布鲁金斯学会经济研究高级研究员的克莱因说。</blockquote></p><p> Even though some argue an FTT would be a disaster, the United States already has a tax, albeit a very tiny one. Roughly 2 cents per $1,000 traded goes toward funding the budget of the Securities and Exchange Commission.Due to surging trading volume during the pandemic, the tax rate to fund the SEC is being lowered to just half a cent per $1,000 starting Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>尽管有些人认为FTT将是一场灾难，但美国已经有了一项税收，尽管规模很小。每1,000美元的交易中大约有2美分用于资助美国证券交易委员会的预算。由于疫情期间交易量激增，从周四开始，为SEC提供资金的税率将降至每1,000美元仅半美分。</blockquote></p><p> \"There is a fee today and the world hasn't ended,\" said Dennis Kelleher, CEO of Better Markets, a group that lobbies for tougher oversight of Wall Street. \"The proposed fee is so puny that no reasonable retail investor would ever notice it.\"</p><p><blockquote>“今天有费用，世界还没有终结，”Better Markets首席执行官丹尼斯·凯莱赫(Dennis Kelleher)表示，该组织游说对华尔街进行更严格的监管。“拟议的费用如此之低，以至于任何理性的散户投资者都不会注意到它。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>'Unintended consequences'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“意想不到的后果”</b></blockquote></p><p> The financial industry is arguing the exact opposite.</p><p><blockquote>金融业的观点恰恰相反。</blockquote></p><p> They say even a 0.1% levy on transactions will cause market players to pass the costs on to consumers and make it harder to buy and sell securities by decreasing liquidity, which measures how easy it is to buy and sell securities. Some Wall Street firms could even try to move their operations outside the country to avoid the tax. The New York Stock Exchange recently threatened to flee New York,possibly for Texas, in response to transaction taxes mulled by Albany.</p><p><blockquote>他们表示，即使对交易征收0.1%的税，也会导致市场参与者将成本转嫁给消费者，并通过减少流动性（衡量买卖证券的难易程度）来增加买卖证券的难度。一些华尔街公司甚至可能试图将业务转移到国外以避税。纽约证券交易所最近威胁要逃离纽约，可能前往德克萨斯州，以回应奥尔巴尼考虑的交易税。</blockquote></p><p> \"This approach has a long history of unintended consequences that will penalize workers, pensioners and American families,\" a spokesperson for the Coalition to Prevent the Taxing of Retirement Savings told CNN Business.</p><p><blockquote>防止退休储蓄征税联盟的一位发言人告诉美国有线电视新闻网商业频道：“这种做法长期以来一直会产生意想不到的后果，这将惩罚工人、养老金领取者和美国家庭。”</blockquote></p><p> That coalition includes the NYSE,Nasdaq (NDAQ) and UBS (UBS). Citadel Securities andVirtu Financial(VIRT), two high-speed trading firms that would be hurt by a financial transaction tax, are also members.</p><p><blockquote>该联盟包括纽约证券交易所、纳斯达克(NDAQ)和瑞银(UBS)。Citadel Securities和Virtu Financial(VIRT)这两家将受到金融交易税损害的高速交易公司也是会员。</blockquote></p><p> \"An FTT will increase trading costs for investors — including individuals — undermine the competitiveness of our capital markets and harm the US economy just as we work to recover from this pandemic,\" the spokesperson said.</p><p><blockquote>该发言人表示：“FTT将增加包括个人在内的投资者的交易成本，削弱我们资本市场的竞争力，并在我们努力从这场大流行中复苏之际损害美国经济。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Some countries tried and failed</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一些国家尝试过，但失败了</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> James Angel, a Georgetown University professor who specializes in market structure and regulation,authored a Chamber of Commerce-funded paper in 2019 that found a financial transaction tax would hurt Main Street by driving up the cost of trading by more than the amount of the tax.</p><p><blockquote>专门研究市场结构和监管的乔治敦大学教授詹姆斯·安吉尔(James Angel)在2019年撰写了一篇由商会资助的论文，该论文发现金融交易税会使交易成本上升超过税额，从而损害大街。</blockquote></p><p> \"There is no such thing as a tiny tax that raises big revenue,\" Angel said in an interview.</p><p><blockquote>安吉尔在接受采访时表示：“没有所谓的小额税收可以增加巨额收入。”</blockquote></p><p> He pointed to how some other countries, most notably Sweden in the 1980s, abandoned such taxes after trading volume vanished and revenue underwhelmed. (Of course, the United States, with its deep financial markets, massive economy and the world's reserve currency, is not Sweden.)</p><p><blockquote>他指出，其他一些国家，尤其是20世纪80年代的瑞典，在交易量消失、收入低迷后，如何放弃此类税收。（当然，拥有深厚金融市场、庞大经济和世界储备货币的美国不是瑞典。）</blockquote></p><p> \"It really messes up the market,\" Angel said.</p><p><blockquote>“这确实扰乱了市场，”安吉尔说。</blockquote></p><p> If US trading volumes fell sharply, the FTT wouldn't raise nearly as much as the $777 billion the CBO estimates.</p><p><blockquote>如果美国交易量大幅下降，FTT筹集的资金将不会达到CBO估计的7770亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Greg Valliere, chief US policy strategist at AGF Investments, said the chances of a financial transaction tax are \"very slim\" because moderate Democrats would be unlikely to back it.</p><p><blockquote>AGF Investments首席美国政策策略师Greg Valliere表示，征收金融交易税的可能性“非常小”，因为温和的民主党人不太可能支持它。</blockquote></p><p> \"It would be a disaster. It's a pandora's box that should not be opened,\" Valliere said.</p><p><blockquote>“这将是一场灾难。这是一个潘多拉的盒子，不应该被打开，”瓦利埃说。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, it's possible that FTT proposals in Congress get scaled back, including by lowering the rate or excluding smaller blocks of trades.</p><p><blockquote>当然，国会的FTT提案可能会被缩减，包括降低利率或排除较小的交易。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Leveling the playing field</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公平竞争环境</b></blockquote></p><p> During last week's congressional hearing on GameStop and Robinhood, Citadel Securities founder Ken Griffin warned a tax would boomerang.</p><p><blockquote>在上周关于游戏驿站和Robinhood的国会听证会上，Citadel Securities创始人Ken Griffin警告称，征税将适得其反。</blockquote></p><p> \"We firmly believe a financial transaction tax would injure Americans trying to save for retirement,\" Griffin said.</p><p><blockquote>格里芬说：“我们坚信金融交易税会伤害试图为退休储蓄的美国人。”</blockquote></p><p> Klein, the Brookings Institution fellow, called Griffin's comments a \"self-serving lie\" because high-frequency trading firms like his would be among those hurt.</p><p><blockquote>布鲁金斯学会研究员克莱因称格里芬的言论是“自私的谎言”，因为像他这样的高频交易公司也会受到伤害。</blockquote></p><p> The GameStop trading frenzy drew attention onto how Robinhood was able to bring zero-commission trading to the masses.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站交易狂潮引起了人们对Robinhood如何将零佣金交易带给大众的关注。</blockquote></p><p> Through a controversial practice known as payment for order flow, Robinhood and other brokers get paid to route retail trades through market makers like Citadel Securities.</p><p><blockquote>通过一种被称为订单流支付的有争议的做法，Robinhood和其他经纪商通过Citadel Securities等做市商进行零售交易获得报酬。</blockquote></p><p> Payment for order flow has made it cheap and easy to trade. However, critics say it's really Wall Street that is getting the better end of the deal by skimming pennies off each trade and racing ahead of retail orders to make a profit.</p><p><blockquote>订单流的支付使得交易变得便宜和容易。然而，批评人士表示，华尔街确实通过从每笔交易中榨取几分钱并抢先零售订单来获利，从而获得了更好的结果。</blockquote></p><p> \"We believe the markets today are rigged to favor high-frequency traders,\" said Kelleher, the Better Markets CEO. \"The industry has taken visible upfront commission fees and disguised it into invisible payment for order flow.\"</p><p><blockquote>Better Markets首席执行官凯莱赫表示：“我们认为，当今的市场受到操纵，有利于高频交易者。”“行业将看得见的前期佣金费用，伪装成订单流的隐形支付。”</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it's not really free to trade.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它并不是真正的自由交易。</blockquote></p><p> Kelleher thinks Congress should focus on taxing orders, not transactions, because a staggering amount of all stock trade orders(some estimates say 99%) are canceled because of high-frequency trading strategies. Critics say those orders are evidence that high-speed traders are manipulating the market by creating the appearance of demand where there is none.</p><p><blockquote>凯莱赫认为国会应该专注于对订单征税，而不是对交易征税，因为所有股票交易订单中有惊人数量（有人估计为99%）因高频交易策略而被取消。批评人士表示，这些订单证明高速交易者正在操纵市场，在没有需求的情况下制造需求的表象。</blockquote></p><p> \"A financial fee on orders could be the death knell for predatory high frequency trading,\" he said. \"Everyone will be better off — except for the predators.\"</p><p><blockquote>“订单的财务费用可能是掠夺性高频交易的丧钟，”他说。“每个人都会过得更好——除了掠食者。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>After the GameStop fiasco, momentum builds for an $800 billion tax<blockquote>游戏驿站惨败后，8000亿美元税收势头增强</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAfter the GameStop fiasco, momentum builds for an $800 billion tax<blockquote>游戏驿站惨败后，8000亿美元税收势头增强</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">CNN Business</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-23 10:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>New York (CNN Business)-</b>Uncle Sam is in search for a pot of gold that could ease the pain of trillion-dollar deficits. And some believe Wall Street might just have the answer.</p><p><blockquote><b>纽约（CNN商业）——</b>山姆大叔正在寻找一桶金来缓解数万亿美元赤字的痛苦。一些人认为华尔街可能有答案。</blockquote></p><p> For more than a decade, progressives have tried and failed to impose a financial transaction tax.But there is new momentum for such a levy as the national debt skyrockets during the pandemic and in the wake of the GameStop trading frenzy that shined a bright light market structure concerns.</p><p><blockquote>十多年来，进步人士一直试图征收金融交易税，但都失败了。但随着疫情期间国债飙升以及游戏驿站交易狂潮引发市场结构担忧，此类征税出现了新的动力。</blockquote></p><p> The White House told CNN Business on Sunday that a financial transaction tax on GameStop-like trading deserves additional study and can be part of a greater evaluation of such a tax for revenue and market stability. The leading proposal amounts to a $1 tax on every $1,000 of transactions.</p><p><blockquote>白宫周日告诉CNN Business，对类似游戏驿站的交易征收金融交易税值得进一步研究，并且可以成为对此类税收的收入和市场稳定进行更大评估的一部分。主要提案相当于对每1000美元的交易征收1美元的税。</blockquote></p><p> But there is a deep divide over the wisdom of a financial transaction tax. Progressives see it as a smart way to simultaneously curb predatory trading while funding ambitious programs aimed at easing America's inequality problem.Opponents, on the other hand, paint a financial transaction tax (FTT) as a nightmare. Wall Street, which would take a hit, is already warning such a levy would backfire on Main Street by raising trading costs and depressing market liquidity.</p><p><blockquote>但对于金融交易税的明智性存在很大分歧。进步人士认为这是一种明智的方式，可以同时遏制掠夺性交易，同时为旨在缓解美国不平等问题的雄心勃勃的计划提供资金。另一方面，反对者将金融交易税（FTT）描绘成一场噩梦。将受到打击的华尔街已经警告称，此类征税将提高交易成本并抑制市场流动性，从而对大街产生适得其反的效果。</blockquote></p><p> \"The odds are still against a financial transaction tax being enacted, but for the first time in a decade this proposal should be considered as a viable policy option rather than just another talking point,\" said Isaac Boltansky, director of policy research at Compass Point Research & Trading.</p><p><blockquote>Compass Point政策研究总监艾萨克·博尔坦斯基(Isaac Boltansky)表示：“颁布金融交易税的可能性仍然很小，但十年来第一次，这项提案应该被视为一种可行的政策选择，而不仅仅是另一个话题。”研究与交易。</blockquote></p><p> Last week, House Financial Services Chairwoman Maxine Waters said she's \"very interested\" and \"certainly looking at\" a financial transaction tax.</p><p><blockquote>上周，众议院金融服务主席玛克辛·沃特斯表示，她“非常感兴趣”并且“肯定会考虑”金融交易税。</blockquote></p><p> <b>'Mindboggling' concentration of wealth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“令人难以置信”的财富集中</b></blockquote></p><p> Lawmakers will surely be tempted to tax transactions because it could raise vast sums of money at a time when Washington is strapped for cash.</p><p><blockquote>立法者肯定会被诱惑对交易征税，因为在华盛顿现金短缺的时候，这可能会筹集巨额资金。</blockquote></p><p> A 0.1% tax on stock, bond and derivative transactions could raise $777 billion for the federal government over a decade, according to a 2018 estimate by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.</p><p><blockquote>根据无党派国会预算办公室2018年的估计，对股票、债券和衍生品交易征收0.1%的税可以在十年内为联邦政府筹集7770亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> \"We have tremendous income inequality in our society and a giant deficit. A financial transaction tax would be an incredibly efficient and progressive way to raise revenue,\" Aaron Klein, a former Treasury Department official in the Obama administration, told CNN Business.</p><p><blockquote>奥巴马政府前财政部官员亚伦·克莱因(Aaron Klein)告诉CNN Business：“我们的社会存在巨大的收入不平等和巨额赤字。金融交易税将是一种非常有效和渐进的增加收入的方式。”</blockquote></p><p> The top 1% of American households would pay 40% of the total amount of the tax, while the bottom 60% would pay just over 11%, according to the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center.</p><p><blockquote>根据Urban-Brookings税收政策中心的数据，收入最高的1%的美国家庭将支付总额的40%，而收入最低的60%的家庭将支付略高于11%的税收。</blockquote></p><p> That makes sense because the wealthiest 10% of US households owned 87% of all stocks and mutual funds, according to 2020 data from the Federal Reserve.</p><p><blockquote>这是有道理的，因为根据美联储2020年的数据，美国最富有的10%家庭拥有87%的股票和共同基金。</blockquote></p><p> \"The concentration of wealth in the stock market is mindboggling,\" said Klein, who is now a senior fellow of economic studies at the Brookings Institution.</p><p><blockquote>“财富集中在股市令人难以置信，”现任布鲁金斯学会经济研究高级研究员的克莱因说。</blockquote></p><p> Even though some argue an FTT would be a disaster, the United States already has a tax, albeit a very tiny one. Roughly 2 cents per $1,000 traded goes toward funding the budget of the Securities and Exchange Commission.Due to surging trading volume during the pandemic, the tax rate to fund the SEC is being lowered to just half a cent per $1,000 starting Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>尽管有些人认为FTT将是一场灾难，但美国已经有了一项税收，尽管规模很小。每1,000美元的交易中大约有2美分用于资助美国证券交易委员会的预算。由于疫情期间交易量激增，从周四开始，为SEC提供资金的税率将降至每1,000美元仅半美分。</blockquote></p><p> \"There is a fee today and the world hasn't ended,\" said Dennis Kelleher, CEO of Better Markets, a group that lobbies for tougher oversight of Wall Street. \"The proposed fee is so puny that no reasonable retail investor would ever notice it.\"</p><p><blockquote>“今天有费用，世界还没有终结，”Better Markets首席执行官丹尼斯·凯莱赫(Dennis Kelleher)表示，该组织游说对华尔街进行更严格的监管。“拟议的费用如此之低，以至于任何理性的散户投资者都不会注意到它。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>'Unintended consequences'</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“意想不到的后果”</b></blockquote></p><p> The financial industry is arguing the exact opposite.</p><p><blockquote>金融业的观点恰恰相反。</blockquote></p><p> They say even a 0.1% levy on transactions will cause market players to pass the costs on to consumers and make it harder to buy and sell securities by decreasing liquidity, which measures how easy it is to buy and sell securities. Some Wall Street firms could even try to move their operations outside the country to avoid the tax. The New York Stock Exchange recently threatened to flee New York,possibly for Texas, in response to transaction taxes mulled by Albany.</p><p><blockquote>他们表示，即使对交易征收0.1%的税，也会导致市场参与者将成本转嫁给消费者，并通过减少流动性（衡量买卖证券的难易程度）来增加买卖证券的难度。一些华尔街公司甚至可能试图将业务转移到国外以避税。纽约证券交易所最近威胁要逃离纽约，可能前往德克萨斯州，以回应奥尔巴尼考虑的交易税。</blockquote></p><p> \"This approach has a long history of unintended consequences that will penalize workers, pensioners and American families,\" a spokesperson for the Coalition to Prevent the Taxing of Retirement Savings told CNN Business.</p><p><blockquote>防止退休储蓄征税联盟的一位发言人告诉美国有线电视新闻网商业频道：“这种做法长期以来一直会产生意想不到的后果，这将惩罚工人、养老金领取者和美国家庭。”</blockquote></p><p> That coalition includes the NYSE,Nasdaq (NDAQ) and UBS (UBS). Citadel Securities andVirtu Financial(VIRT), two high-speed trading firms that would be hurt by a financial transaction tax, are also members.</p><p><blockquote>该联盟包括纽约证券交易所、纳斯达克(NDAQ)和瑞银(UBS)。Citadel Securities和Virtu Financial(VIRT)这两家将受到金融交易税损害的高速交易公司也是会员。</blockquote></p><p> \"An FTT will increase trading costs for investors — including individuals — undermine the competitiveness of our capital markets and harm the US economy just as we work to recover from this pandemic,\" the spokesperson said.</p><p><blockquote>该发言人表示：“FTT将增加包括个人在内的投资者的交易成本，削弱我们资本市场的竞争力，并在我们努力从这场大流行中复苏之际损害美国经济。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Some countries tried and failed</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一些国家尝试过，但失败了</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> James Angel, a Georgetown University professor who specializes in market structure and regulation,authored a Chamber of Commerce-funded paper in 2019 that found a financial transaction tax would hurt Main Street by driving up the cost of trading by more than the amount of the tax.</p><p><blockquote>专门研究市场结构和监管的乔治敦大学教授詹姆斯·安吉尔(James Angel)在2019年撰写了一篇由商会资助的论文，该论文发现金融交易税会使交易成本上升超过税额，从而损害大街。</blockquote></p><p> \"There is no such thing as a tiny tax that raises big revenue,\" Angel said in an interview.</p><p><blockquote>安吉尔在接受采访时表示：“没有所谓的小额税收可以增加巨额收入。”</blockquote></p><p> He pointed to how some other countries, most notably Sweden in the 1980s, abandoned such taxes after trading volume vanished and revenue underwhelmed. (Of course, the United States, with its deep financial markets, massive economy and the world's reserve currency, is not Sweden.)</p><p><blockquote>他指出，其他一些国家，尤其是20世纪80年代的瑞典，在交易量消失、收入低迷后，如何放弃此类税收。（当然，拥有深厚金融市场、庞大经济和世界储备货币的美国不是瑞典。）</blockquote></p><p> \"It really messes up the market,\" Angel said.</p><p><blockquote>“这确实扰乱了市场，”安吉尔说。</blockquote></p><p> If US trading volumes fell sharply, the FTT wouldn't raise nearly as much as the $777 billion the CBO estimates.</p><p><blockquote>如果美国交易量大幅下降，FTT筹集的资金将不会达到CBO估计的7770亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Greg Valliere, chief US policy strategist at AGF Investments, said the chances of a financial transaction tax are \"very slim\" because moderate Democrats would be unlikely to back it.</p><p><blockquote>AGF Investments首席美国政策策略师Greg Valliere表示，征收金融交易税的可能性“非常小”，因为温和的民主党人不太可能支持它。</blockquote></p><p> \"It would be a disaster. It's a pandora's box that should not be opened,\" Valliere said.</p><p><blockquote>“这将是一场灾难。这是一个潘多拉的盒子，不应该被打开，”瓦利埃说。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, it's possible that FTT proposals in Congress get scaled back, including by lowering the rate or excluding smaller blocks of trades.</p><p><blockquote>当然，国会的FTT提案可能会被缩减，包括降低利率或排除较小的交易。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Leveling the playing field</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公平竞争环境</b></blockquote></p><p> During last week's congressional hearing on GameStop and Robinhood, Citadel Securities founder Ken Griffin warned a tax would boomerang.</p><p><blockquote>在上周关于游戏驿站和Robinhood的国会听证会上，Citadel Securities创始人Ken Griffin警告称，征税将适得其反。</blockquote></p><p> \"We firmly believe a financial transaction tax would injure Americans trying to save for retirement,\" Griffin said.</p><p><blockquote>格里芬说：“我们坚信金融交易税会伤害试图为退休储蓄的美国人。”</blockquote></p><p> Klein, the Brookings Institution fellow, called Griffin's comments a \"self-serving lie\" because high-frequency trading firms like his would be among those hurt.</p><p><blockquote>布鲁金斯学会研究员克莱因称格里芬的言论是“自私的谎言”，因为像他这样的高频交易公司也会受到伤害。</blockquote></p><p> The GameStop trading frenzy drew attention onto how Robinhood was able to bring zero-commission trading to the masses.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站交易狂潮引起了人们对Robinhood如何将零佣金交易带给大众的关注。</blockquote></p><p> Through a controversial practice known as payment for order flow, Robinhood and other brokers get paid to route retail trades through market makers like Citadel Securities.</p><p><blockquote>通过一种被称为订单流支付的有争议的做法，Robinhood和其他经纪商通过Citadel Securities等做市商进行零售交易获得报酬。</blockquote></p><p> Payment for order flow has made it cheap and easy to trade. However, critics say it's really Wall Street that is getting the better end of the deal by skimming pennies off each trade and racing ahead of retail orders to make a profit.</p><p><blockquote>订单流的支付使得交易变得便宜和容易。然而，批评人士表示，华尔街确实通过从每笔交易中榨取几分钱并抢先零售订单来获利，从而获得了更好的结果。</blockquote></p><p> \"We believe the markets today are rigged to favor high-frequency traders,\" said Kelleher, the Better Markets CEO. \"The industry has taken visible upfront commission fees and disguised it into invisible payment for order flow.\"</p><p><blockquote>Better Markets首席执行官凯莱赫表示：“我们认为，当今的市场受到操纵，有利于高频交易者。”“行业将看得见的前期佣金费用，伪装成订单流的隐形支付。”</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it's not really free to trade.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它并不是真正的自由交易。</blockquote></p><p> Kelleher thinks Congress should focus on taxing orders, not transactions, because a staggering amount of all stock trade orders(some estimates say 99%) are canceled because of high-frequency trading strategies. Critics say those orders are evidence that high-speed traders are manipulating the market by creating the appearance of demand where there is none.</p><p><blockquote>凯莱赫认为国会应该专注于对订单征税，而不是对交易征税，因为所有股票交易订单中有惊人数量（有人估计为99%）因高频交易策略而被取消。批评人士表示，这些订单证明高速交易者正在操纵市场，在没有需求的情况下制造需求的表象。</blockquote></p><p> \"A financial fee on orders could be the death knell for predatory high frequency trading,\" he said. \"Everyone will be better off — except for the predators.\"</p><p><blockquote>“订单的财务费用可能是掠夺性高频交易的丧钟，”他说。“每个人都会过得更好——除了掠食者。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/22/investing/gamestop-financial-transaction-tax/index.html\">CNN Business</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","GME":"游戏驿站",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/22/investing/gamestop-financial-transaction-tax/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129494437","content_text":"New York (CNN Business)-Uncle Sam is in search for a pot of gold that could ease the pain of trillion-dollar deficits. And some believe Wall Street might just have the answer.\nFor more than a decade, progressives have tried and failed to impose a financial transaction tax.But there is new momentum for such a levy as the national debt skyrockets during the pandemic and in the wake of the GameStop trading frenzy that shined a bright light market structure concerns.\nThe White House told CNN Business on Sunday that a financial transaction tax on GameStop-like trading deserves additional study and can be part of a greater evaluation of such a tax for revenue and market stability. The leading proposal amounts to a $1 tax on every $1,000 of transactions.\nBut there is a deep divide over the wisdom of a financial transaction tax. Progressives see it as a smart way to simultaneously curb predatory trading while funding ambitious programs aimed at easing America's inequality problem.Opponents, on the other hand, paint a financial transaction tax (FTT) as a nightmare. Wall Street, which would take a hit, is already warning such a levy would backfire on Main Street by raising trading costs and depressing market liquidity.\n\"The odds are still against a financial transaction tax being enacted, but for the first time in a decade this proposal should be considered as a viable policy option rather than just another talking point,\" said Isaac Boltansky, director of policy research at Compass Point Research & Trading.\nLast week, House Financial Services Chairwoman Maxine Waters said she's \"very interested\" and \"certainly looking at\" a financial transaction tax.\n'Mindboggling' concentration of wealth\nLawmakers will surely be tempted to tax transactions because it could raise vast sums of money at a time when Washington is strapped for cash.\nA 0.1% tax on stock, bond and derivative transactions could raise $777 billion for the federal government over a decade, according to a 2018 estimate by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.\n\"We have tremendous income inequality in our society and a giant deficit. A financial transaction tax would be an incredibly efficient and progressive way to raise revenue,\" Aaron Klein, a former Treasury Department official in the Obama administration, told CNN Business.\nThe top 1% of American households would pay 40% of the total amount of the tax, while the bottom 60% would pay just over 11%, according to the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center.\nThat makes sense because the wealthiest 10% of US households owned 87% of all stocks and mutual funds, according to 2020 data from the Federal Reserve.\n\"The concentration of wealth in the stock market is mindboggling,\" said Klein, who is now a senior fellow of economic studies at the Brookings Institution.\nEven though some argue an FTT would be a disaster, the United States already has a tax, albeit a very tiny one. Roughly 2 cents per $1,000 traded goes toward funding the budget of the Securities and Exchange Commission.Due to surging trading volume during the pandemic, the tax rate to fund the SEC is being lowered to just half a cent per $1,000 starting Thursday.\n\"There is a fee today and the world hasn't ended,\" said Dennis Kelleher, CEO of Better Markets, a group that lobbies for tougher oversight of Wall Street. \"The proposed fee is so puny that no reasonable retail investor would ever notice it.\"\n'Unintended consequences'\nThe financial industry is arguing the exact opposite.\nThey say even a 0.1% levy on transactions will cause market players to pass the costs on to consumers and make it harder to buy and sell securities by decreasing liquidity, which measures how easy it is to buy and sell securities. Some Wall Street firms could even try to move their operations outside the country to avoid the tax. The New York Stock Exchange recently threatened to flee New York,possibly for Texas, in response to transaction taxes mulled by Albany.\n\"This approach has a long history of unintended consequences that will penalize workers, pensioners and American families,\" a spokesperson for the Coalition to Prevent the Taxing of Retirement Savings told CNN Business.\nThat coalition includes the NYSE,Nasdaq (NDAQ) and UBS (UBS). Citadel Securities andVirtu Financial(VIRT), two high-speed trading firms that would be hurt by a financial transaction tax, are also members.\n\"An FTT will increase trading costs for investors — including individuals — undermine the competitiveness of our capital markets and harm the US economy just as we work to recover from this pandemic,\" the spokesperson said.\nSome countries tried and failed\nJames Angel, a Georgetown University professor who specializes in market structure and regulation,authored a Chamber of Commerce-funded paper in 2019 that found a financial transaction tax would hurt Main Street by driving up the cost of trading by more than the amount of the tax.\n\"There is no such thing as a tiny tax that raises big revenue,\" Angel said in an interview.\nHe pointed to how some other countries, most notably Sweden in the 1980s, abandoned such taxes after trading volume vanished and revenue underwhelmed. (Of course, the United States, with its deep financial markets, massive economy and the world's reserve currency, is not Sweden.)\n\"It really messes up the market,\" Angel said.\nIf US trading volumes fell sharply, the FTT wouldn't raise nearly as much as the $777 billion the CBO estimates.\nGreg Valliere, chief US policy strategist at AGF Investments, said the chances of a financial transaction tax are \"very slim\" because moderate Democrats would be unlikely to back it.\n\"It would be a disaster. It's a pandora's box that should not be opened,\" Valliere said.\nOf course, it's possible that FTT proposals in Congress get scaled back, including by lowering the rate or excluding smaller blocks of trades.\nLeveling the playing field\nDuring last week's congressional hearing on GameStop and Robinhood, Citadel Securities founder Ken Griffin warned a tax would boomerang.\n\"We firmly believe a financial transaction tax would injure Americans trying to save for retirement,\" Griffin said.\nKlein, the Brookings Institution fellow, called Griffin's comments a \"self-serving lie\" because high-frequency trading firms like his would be among those hurt.\nThe GameStop trading frenzy drew attention onto how Robinhood was able to bring zero-commission trading to the masses.\nThrough a controversial practice known as payment for order flow, Robinhood and other brokers get paid to route retail trades through market makers like Citadel Securities.\nPayment for order flow has made it cheap and easy to trade. However, critics say it's really Wall Street that is getting the better end of the deal by skimming pennies off each trade and racing ahead of retail orders to make a profit.\n\"We believe the markets today are rigged to favor high-frequency traders,\" said Kelleher, the Better Markets CEO. \"The industry has taken visible upfront commission fees and disguised it into invisible payment for order flow.\"\nIn other words, it's not really free to trade.\nKelleher thinks Congress should focus on taxing orders, not transactions, because a staggering amount of all stock trade orders(some estimates say 99%) are canceled because of high-frequency trading strategies. Critics say those orders are evidence that high-speed traders are manipulating the market by creating the appearance of demand where there is none.\n\"A financial fee on orders could be the death knell for predatory high frequency trading,\" he said. \"Everyone will be better off — except for the predators.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"GME":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2643,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":369599809,"gmtCreate":1614055054001,"gmtModify":1614055054001,"author":{"id":"3551276051261213","authorId":"3551276051261213","name":"顾北哲","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/547dd0e81f53759d860ddd3a4b0ee70b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3551276051261213","authorIdStr":"3551276051261213"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"等到经济危机无法解决的时候，唯一的出路就是战争。","listText":"等到经济危机无法解决的时候，唯一的出路就是战争。","text":"等到经济危机无法解决的时候，唯一的出路就是战争。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/369599809","repostId":"1140389351","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140389351","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614006277,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1140389351?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-22 23:04","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"《大空头》原型连发警告：恶性通胀已酝酿十年","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140389351","media":" 腾讯美股","summary":"周末，美国著名投资人、电影《大空头》原型布里就一个主题在社交平台上连续发文多条，警告的主题就是——恶性通货膨胀。布里连珠炮一样地引述了大量《财富的消亡》原文，有心者不难看出，文中描述的魏玛德国，与今日","content":"<p><i>周末，美国著名投资人、电影《大空头》原型布里就一个主题在社交平台上连续发文多条，警告的主题就是——恶性通货膨胀。布里连珠炮一样地引述了大量《财富的消亡》原文，有心者不难看出，文中描述的魏玛德国，与今日的美国颇有众多神似。</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4282fd439a7a9ecfc9bd7432aca279a6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>“人们都说我上次没有警告他们，但事实是我警告了，却没有人听。因此，我这次要立此存照。我现在依然在警告，依然没有人听，但是我至少留下了证据。”</p><p>周末，美国著名投资人、电影《大空头》原型布里就一个主题在社交平台上连续发文多条，并做出了上述的强调，而他警告的主题就是——恶性通货膨胀。</p><p>一周之前，美国银行曾经发出警告，指出货币和财政刺激提供的海量流动性，以及预期中全球经济走出封锁后的货币周转率猛增，最终可能导致史无前例的经济过热。该行首席投资官哈奈特（Michael Hartnett）则干脆说，他想起了当初第一次世界大战后的德国，当时，所发生的“货币周转率最壮观最极端的猛增，战争心理状态的结束，抑制下的储蓄，对货币和政府信心的丧失”，以及德国央行的债务货币化操作，这些都可以在现在找到影子。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0169c30659bccfcfca3a92d4f60c652d\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>众所周知，那也就是所谓魏玛德国时代，而了解一点历史的人都知道那时代发生了些什么，而美国银行的哈奈特刻意避开了“魏玛”二字，显然也是某种心理阴影使然。</p><p>不过，并不是所有人都那么欲语还休的。1974年，帕尔森（Jens Parsson）就曾经深度研究了魏玛德国的崩溃，出版了经典之作《财富的消亡》（Dying of Money），而布里这次就在社交平台上推荐了这部著作。布里最近在许多问题上都有发言，颇为忙碌，比如他指责Robinhood、看好铀等等，但是他依然要抽出时间来强调这一点，建议大家都了解一下魏玛德国，尤其是其恶性通货膨胀的历史，并且连续发文“盖楼”，显然是有着明确的用意的。以下就是当日时间周日晚间，布里的连续发文。</p><p>“美国政府正在以其带有现代货币理论色彩的政策创造通货膨胀。债务对国内生产总值比率高企，M2货币供应量增长，而零售销售额和采购经理人指数却依然在V形复苏中。数以万亿计的刺激资金，加上经济的重启，都将推动需求猛增，导致劳动力和供应链成本升破天际。”</p><p>接下来，布里连珠炮一样地引述了大量《财富的消亡》原文，有心者不难看出，文中描述的魏玛德国，与今日的美国颇有众多神似。</p><p>“通货膨胀到了成熟阶段，就会形成一场悖论，拥有自己显而易见，绝不会被弄错的各种特质。其中之一就是巨大的财富，至少那些受到青睐的人会暴富。一夜之间，横财从天而降……城市里到处都游荡着漫无目的的，放纵的青年人。”</p><p>“德国价格稳定，企业和股市都一派繁荣。马克对美元和其他货币的汇率一段时间内其实是上扬的，在全球大通胀的前夜，马克甚至曾经短暂居于最强势货币的位置。”</p><p>“与财富比肩而立的，是穷人空空如也的口袋。许多人依然被排斥在宽松货币的圈子之外，他们虽然也希望雨露均沾，但是却不得其门而入。犯罪率在飞涨。”</p><p>“通观整个时代，可以看到大众的心情其实是日趋低落的，他们被推动着一路狂奔，到了喘不上气的地步，却看不到有什么明确的目标，这让他们感到疲惫和厌倦，与此同时，目睹着自己辛辛苦苦爬上的地位正在滑落，而别人却变得暴富，这更让他们感到深深的恐惧。”</p><p>“几乎任何一种企业都能够赚钱，倒闭和破产的案例数量微乎其微。这场繁荣打断了企业正常的物竞天择进程，使得那些本该被淘汰的二三流的，效率低下的企业也得以存活下来。”</p><p>“投机虽然并不能使得德国的总财富有任何的增加，却成为了最活跃的生意之一。几乎每一个阶层都满心狂热，想要加入进去。包括电梯司机在内，每个人都成为了市场玩家。”</p><p>“柏林证券交易所的交易周转率如此之高，以至于金融行业的簿记工作都跟不上了……交易所被迫每周关闭若干天，来处理积压订单。”</p><p>“1922年夏季，世界上全部流通的马克大约有1900亿，而到了1923年11月，1900亿马克已经不够购买一份报纸或者一张电车票了。这是总崩溃看上去最惊人的部分，不过金钱财富损失的主体，发生的时间其实还要早得多。”</p><p>“这些年来，整个结构一直在静静地向着总崩溃的方向自我建构。德国的通货膨胀周期不是持续了一年，而是整整九年，前面八年都是酝酿，只有一年是总崩溃。”</p><p>布里的结论是，美国的2010年到2021年，也完全可能是同样的“酝酿期”，余下的问题只是：总崩溃何时来到？</p>","source":"txmg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>《大空头》原型连发警告：恶性通胀已酝酿十年</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n《大空头》原型连发警告：恶性通胀已酝酿十年\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-22 23:04 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/dHn6mG_vgf2uZTZ8qwcOew><strong> 腾讯美股</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>周末，美国著名投资人、电影《大空头》原型布里就一个主题在社交平台上连续发文多条，警告的主题就是——恶性通货膨胀。布里连珠炮一样地引述了大量《财富的消亡》原文，有心者不难看出，文中描述的魏玛德国，与今日的美国颇有众多神似。“人们都说我上次没有警告他们，但事实是我警告了，却没有人听。因此，我这次要立此存照。我现在依然在警告，依然没有人听，但是我至少留下了证据。”周末，美国著名投资人、电影《大空头》原型...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/dHn6mG_vgf2uZTZ8qwcOew\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4282fd439a7a9ecfc9bd7432aca279a6","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/dHn6mG_vgf2uZTZ8qwcOew","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140389351","content_text":"周末，美国著名投资人、电影《大空头》原型布里就一个主题在社交平台上连续发文多条，警告的主题就是——恶性通货膨胀。布里连珠炮一样地引述了大量《财富的消亡》原文，有心者不难看出，文中描述的魏玛德国，与今日的美国颇有众多神似。“人们都说我上次没有警告他们，但事实是我警告了，却没有人听。因此，我这次要立此存照。我现在依然在警告，依然没有人听，但是我至少留下了证据。”周末，美国著名投资人、电影《大空头》原型布里就一个主题在社交平台上连续发文多条，并做出了上述的强调，而他警告的主题就是——恶性通货膨胀。一周之前，美国银行曾经发出警告，指出货币和财政刺激提供的海量流动性，以及预期中全球经济走出封锁后的货币周转率猛增，最终可能导致史无前例的经济过热。该行首席投资官哈奈特（Michael Hartnett）则干脆说，他想起了当初第一次世界大战后的德国，当时，所发生的“货币周转率最壮观最极端的猛增，战争心理状态的结束，抑制下的储蓄，对货币和政府信心的丧失”，以及德国央行的债务货币化操作，这些都可以在现在找到影子。众所周知，那也就是所谓魏玛德国时代，而了解一点历史的人都知道那时代发生了些什么，而美国银行的哈奈特刻意避开了“魏玛”二字，显然也是某种心理阴影使然。不过，并不是所有人都那么欲语还休的。1974年，帕尔森（Jens Parsson）就曾经深度研究了魏玛德国的崩溃，出版了经典之作《财富的消亡》（Dying of Money），而布里这次就在社交平台上推荐了这部著作。布里最近在许多问题上都有发言，颇为忙碌，比如他指责Robinhood、看好铀等等，但是他依然要抽出时间来强调这一点，建议大家都了解一下魏玛德国，尤其是其恶性通货膨胀的历史，并且连续发文“盖楼”，显然是有着明确的用意的。以下就是当日时间周日晚间，布里的连续发文。“美国政府正在以其带有现代货币理论色彩的政策创造通货膨胀。债务对国内生产总值比率高企，M2货币供应量增长，而零售销售额和采购经理人指数却依然在V形复苏中。数以万亿计的刺激资金，加上经济的重启，都将推动需求猛增，导致劳动力和供应链成本升破天际。”接下来，布里连珠炮一样地引述了大量《财富的消亡》原文，有心者不难看出，文中描述的魏玛德国，与今日的美国颇有众多神似。“通货膨胀到了成熟阶段，就会形成一场悖论，拥有自己显而易见，绝不会被弄错的各种特质。其中之一就是巨大的财富，至少那些受到青睐的人会暴富。一夜之间，横财从天而降……城市里到处都游荡着漫无目的的，放纵的青年人。”“德国价格稳定，企业和股市都一派繁荣。马克对美元和其他货币的汇率一段时间内其实是上扬的，在全球大通胀的前夜，马克甚至曾经短暂居于最强势货币的位置。”“与财富比肩而立的，是穷人空空如也的口袋。许多人依然被排斥在宽松货币的圈子之外，他们虽然也希望雨露均沾，但是却不得其门而入。犯罪率在飞涨。”“通观整个时代，可以看到大众的心情其实是日趋低落的，他们被推动着一路狂奔，到了喘不上气的地步，却看不到有什么明确的目标，这让他们感到疲惫和厌倦，与此同时，目睹着自己辛辛苦苦爬上的地位正在滑落，而别人却变得暴富，这更让他们感到深深的恐惧。”“几乎任何一种企业都能够赚钱，倒闭和破产的案例数量微乎其微。这场繁荣打断了企业正常的物竞天择进程，使得那些本该被淘汰的二三流的，效率低下的企业也得以存活下来。”“投机虽然并不能使得德国的总财富有任何的增加，却成为了最活跃的生意之一。几乎每一个阶层都满心狂热，想要加入进去。包括电梯司机在内，每个人都成为了市场玩家。”“柏林证券交易所的交易周转率如此之高，以至于金融行业的簿记工作都跟不上了……交易所被迫每周关闭若干天，来处理积压订单。”“1922年夏季，世界上全部流通的马克大约有1900亿，而到了1923年11月，1900亿马克已经不够购买一份报纸或者一张电车票了。这是总崩溃看上去最惊人的部分，不过金钱财富损失的主体，发生的时间其实还要早得多。”“这些年来，整个结构一直在静静地向着总崩溃的方向自我建构。德国的通货膨胀周期不是持续了一年，而是整整九年，前面八年都是酝酿，只有一年是总崩溃。”布里的结论是，美国的2010年到2021年，也完全可能是同样的“酝酿期”，余下的问题只是：总崩溃何时来到？","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4763,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":360910701,"gmtCreate":1613808128503,"gmtModify":1613808128503,"author":{"id":"3551276051261213","authorId":"3551276051261213","name":"顾北哲","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/547dd0e81f53759d860ddd3a4b0ee70b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3551276051261213","authorIdStr":"3551276051261213"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"头像换成了个二次元妹子？","listText":"头像换成了个二次元妹子？","text":"头像换成了个二次元妹子？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/360910701","repostId":"1122334705","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4181,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}