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ERIC2020520
ERIC2020520
·
2021-05-14
加息
5月或是整个市场的转折点:美联储的“天敌”来了!
通胀爆了,就业萎靡……这叫啥来着?
5月或是整个市场的转折点:美联储的“天敌”来了!
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ERIC2020520
ERIC2020520
·
2021-05-14
很棒
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ERIC2020520
ERIC2020520
·
2021-05-12
V神是谁?[开心]
【V神钱包曾在2020年8月收到50%的SHIB】根据Shiba Inu白皮书的表述,50%供应量的SHIB将会发送到V
【V神钱包曾在2020年8月收到50%的SHIB】根据Shiba Inu白皮书的表述,50%供应量的SHIB将会发送到V神钱包,以便销毁,这一转移已在2020年8月1日-3日之间完成。随着SHIB的大
【V神钱包曾在2020年8月收到50%的SHIB】根据Shiba Inu白皮书的表述,50%供应量的SHIB将会发送到V
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ERIC2020520
ERIC2020520
·
2021-05-12
好棒,透彻
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ERIC2020520
ERIC2020520
·
2021-05-09
请问怎样交易狗狗币?
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ERIC2020520
ERIC2020520
·
2020-12-02
$国盛投资(01227)$
骗子公司,坑爹的公司,亏损金奖
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ERIC2020520
ERIC2020520
·
2020-12-02
$国盛投资(01227)$
2020亏损最多,国盛投资开曼群岛注册空壳公司,无营收,靠收割股民榨取价值,养活一帮碌碌无为的董事会成员,也是没有监管的股票。
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ERIC2020520
ERIC2020520
·
2020-07-20
很受用的文章!
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ERIC2020520
ERIC2020520
·
2020-07-18
很深度的文章!
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ERIC2020520
ERIC2020520
·
2020-07-18
蔚来还有希望吗?
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市场上金融产品所隐含的通胀预期;2.所谓经济学家们“共识”预测的通胀预(这两个层基本上跟美联储的预测是一致的)3. 民众的真实通胀预期。</p><p>第三个层次决定了通胀自我实现的特点。如果经过了一段时间相对高的通胀(很可能高于2%),让美国工人认为生活成本提高了,需要加工资;让厂商认为需要提价才能应对更高的工资和各种成本,那通胀最终从2%+冲上5%,甚至是70年代的10%+都不是没有可能的。</p><p>实际上,上一次美国CPI高达4.2%的时候,美联储的利率高达20%——正是70年代的滞胀时期。</p><p><b>滞胀!?</b></p><p>滞胀是美联储最害怕的“天敌”——在滞胀出现时,美联储政策就会失去主动权,进入完全被动状态。因为在这种情况下,美联储收紧政策,虽然可以控制通胀,但是经济受不了;但是如果放松政策救经济,通胀就上天了——左右不是人,无解;只能硬抗,让时间来慢慢消化,像70年代一样。</p><p>虽然一个月的数据在理论上只是加剧了市场担心,不至于产生恐慌——毕竟去年4月份的美国确实是通缩状态,美联储所说的基数效应确实存在。</p><p>图:去年4月美国通缩得厉害</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64c80e9218155a4a7d34e31254600a07\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"229\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>如果,五月数据可以回落到让市场可以接受的3%左右,那通胀预期还“有得救”;但如果下个月还维持4%左右,那美联储很可能需要赶紧“放鹰”,控制一下通胀预期。</p><p>另外,就业方面虽然4月非农数据非常不理想(17.5199,-0.26,-1.46%),但是有望在5月出现大幅改观,详见:拜登“觉醒”!5月美国就业可以破百万么?。</p><p><b>意味着什么</b></p><p>本次数据虽然令人震惊,但是仍属于“一次性”的性质——市场概率根据最新情况进行调整是非常正常的,100%加息概率也不代表一定发生,因为距离2022年底还有很长时间,中间还有很多数据会再次更改概率。</p><p>尽管如此,这仍会让5月份数据变成一个“决胜点”。</p><p>首先,去年5月份美国经济已经摆脱通缩,其通胀读数跟2020年剩下的月份差距不大,如果5月通胀再次高达4%左右,就不能再说是基数问题了——这时候美联储需要“表示表示”,否则通胀很有可能进入“自我实现”通道。</p><p>另外,不管5月就业好还是不好,都已经“无所谓”了:好就表明通胀压力更大;不好说明滞胀越来越近了——怎么样对市场而言都是坏消息。这就是为什么美联储现在开始反复强调,就业现在需要盯住劳动参与率,因为不仅失业率数据“失灵了”,就连非农数据现在都不太好使了。</p><p>5月或是整个市场的转折点。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5月或是整个市场的转折点:美联储的“天敌”来了!\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n2021-05-13 21:48 北京时间 <strong>华尔街见闻</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者:乐鸣引子在刚过去不久的美联储“放鸽子”会上,鲍威尔被问到两个尴尬的问题:现在通胀预期看起来上得很猛,万一通胀比就业先达标了,你咋办?你咋那么有信心这次通胀不会失控?不会像上世纪70年代一样?对于这两个问题,鲍威尔都不太高兴,因为问到了尴尬的痛点。如今痛点开始在数据上显现:5月12日周三晚8点半,美国劳工部公布了美国4月CPI。数据显示,不光是美国的整体CPI还是核心CPI,4月份增速都创出...</p>\n\n<a href=\"None\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af1d75a2b7a7bd95e0102711f4f871de","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129245857","content_text":"作者:乐鸣引子在刚过去不久的美联储“放鸽子”会上,鲍威尔被问到两个尴尬的问题:现在通胀预期看起来上得很猛,万一通胀比就业先达标了,你咋办?你咋那么有信心这次通胀不会失控?不会像上世纪70年代一样?对于这两个问题,鲍威尔都不太高兴,因为问到了尴尬的痛点。如今痛点开始在数据上显现:5月12日周三晚8点半,美国劳工部公布了美国4月CPI。数据显示,不光是美国的整体CPI还是核心CPI,4月份增速都创出惊人记录。其中,美国4月整体CPI同比大增4.2%(市场预期3.6%),增速创2008年9月以来新高;4月核心CPI同比大增3%,创1996年1月以来最大增长。奔5%的通胀,可不是长期通胀平均2%可以忍受的,除非下个月就下来,表示这是“虚惊一场”,但是下个月大幅下滑的可能性目前看来不大。市场通过价格也传达了这一预期:2022年升息的可能性,在数据公布后已经高达100%。这反过来意味着,刚刚因为就业数据大幅不及预期而推迟的缩减QE时间,又再次被提前。这种被左右拉扯不知如何是好的感觉有点似曾相识,也是美联储最害怕的情景:通胀爆了,就业萎靡……这叫啥来着?市场开始不信美联储的说辞了早在今天数据公布之前,市场已经对美联储所谓长期通胀保持2%的说辞表示出了怀疑态度。纽约联邦储备银行公布的4月消费者调查(相当于美联储的“民调”)显示:随着经济从疫情引发的危机中复苏,美国消费者未来一年通胀的预期中值为3.4%,创2013年9月以来最高水平。对未来三年通胀的预期维持在3.1%不变。之所以美联储这么在乎通胀“民调”,是因为通胀最可怕的一点就是形成“民众共识”后螺旋上升。对于通胀的预期,可以粗略分成三个层次:1. 市场上金融产品所隐含的通胀预期;2.所谓经济学家们“共识”预测的通胀预(这两个层基本上跟美联储的预测是一致的)3. 民众的真实通胀预期。第三个层次决定了通胀自我实现的特点。如果经过了一段时间相对高的通胀(很可能高于2%),让美国工人认为生活成本提高了,需要加工资;让厂商认为需要提价才能应对更高的工资和各种成本,那通胀最终从2%+冲上5%,甚至是70年代的10%+都不是没有可能的。实际上,上一次美国CPI高达4.2%的时候,美联储的利率高达20%——正是70年代的滞胀时期。滞胀!?滞胀是美联储最害怕的“天敌”——在滞胀出现时,美联储政策就会失去主动权,进入完全被动状态。因为在这种情况下,美联储收紧政策,虽然可以控制通胀,但是经济受不了;但是如果放松政策救经济,通胀就上天了——左右不是人,无解;只能硬抗,让时间来慢慢消化,像70年代一样。虽然一个月的数据在理论上只是加剧了市场担心,不至于产生恐慌——毕竟去年4月份的美国确实是通缩状态,美联储所说的基数效应确实存在。图:去年4月美国通缩得厉害如果,五月数据可以回落到让市场可以接受的3%左右,那通胀预期还“有得救”;但如果下个月还维持4%左右,那美联储很可能需要赶紧“放鹰”,控制一下通胀预期。另外,就业方面虽然4月非农数据非常不理想(17.5199,-0.26,-1.46%),但是有望在5月出现大幅改观,详见:拜登“觉醒”!5月美国就业可以破百万么?。意味着什么本次数据虽然令人震惊,但是仍属于“一次性”的性质——市场概率根据最新情况进行调整是非常正常的,100%加息概率也不代表一定发生,因为距离2022年底还有很长时间,中间还有很多数据会再次更改概率。尽管如此,这仍会让5月份数据变成一个“决胜点”。首先,去年5月份美国经济已经摆脱通缩,其通胀读数跟2020年剩下的月份差距不大,如果5月通胀再次高达4%左右,就不能再说是基数问题了——这时候美联储需要“表示表示”,否则通胀很有可能进入“自我实现”通道。另外,不管5月就业好还是不好,都已经“无所谓”了:好就表明通胀压力更大;不好说明滞胀越来越近了——怎么样对市场而言都是坏消息。这就是为什么美联储现在开始反复强调,就业现在需要盯住劳动参与率,因为不仅失业率数据“失灵了”,就连非农数据现在都不太好使了。5月或是整个市场的转折点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4553,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":198341315,"gmtCreate":1620938589137,"gmtModify":1620938589137,"author":{"id":"3553231417553161","authorId":"3553231417553161","name":"ERIC2020520","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb088dbd0225aaa433f6d2eb54db7ced","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3553231417553161","authorIdStr":"3553231417553161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"很棒","listText":"很棒","text":"很棒","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/198341315","repostId":"1119727250","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3643,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":193359922,"gmtCreate":1620770539366,"gmtModify":1620770539366,"author":{"id":"3553231417553161","authorId":"3553231417553161","name":"ERIC2020520","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb088dbd0225aaa433f6d2eb54db7ced","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3553231417553161","authorIdStr":"3553231417553161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"V神是谁?[开心] ","listText":"V神是谁?[开心] ","text":"V神是谁?[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/193359922","repostId":"2134770686","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2134770686","kind":"live","pubTimestamp":1620573252,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2134770686?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-09 23:14","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"【V神钱包曾在2020年8月收到50%的SHIB】根据Shiba Inu白皮书的表述,50%供应量的SHIB将会发送到V","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2134770686","media":"金色财经","summary":"【V神钱包曾在2020年8月收到50%的SHIB】根据Shiba Inu白皮书的表述,50%供应量的SHIB将会发送到V神钱包,以便销毁,这一转移已在2020年8月1日-3日之间完成。随着SHIB的大","content":"<html><body><p>【V神钱包曾在2020年8月收到50%的SHIB】根据Shiba Inu白皮书的表述,50%供应量的SHIB将会发送到V神钱包,以便销毁,这一转移已在2020年8月1日-3日之间完成。随着SHIB的大涨,V神拥有的SHIB价值已超过80亿美元。但大家都清楚,转移到V神钱包的SHIB并不意味着销毁,你认为V神会怎样处理这些代币呢? \n注:V神从未表示过与SHIB有任何关系。</p></body></html>","source":"jinse_live","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>7x24快讯</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n7x24快讯\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-09 23:14 北京时间 <a href='https://api.jinse.com/noah/v2/lives><strong>金色财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>【V神钱包曾在2020年8月收到50%的SHIB】根据Shiba Inu白皮书的表述,50%供应量的SHIB将会发送到V神钱包,以便销毁,这一转移已在2020年8月1日-3日之间完成。随着SHIB的大涨,V神拥有的SHIB价值已超过80亿美元。但大家都清楚,转移到V神钱包的SHIB并不意味着销毁,你认为V神会怎样处理这些代币呢? \n注:V神从未表示过与SHIB有任何关系。</p>\n\n<a href=\"'https://api.jinse.com/noah/v2/lives\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"'https://api.jinse.com/noah/v2/lives","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2134770686","content_text":"【V神钱包曾在2020年8月收到50%的SHIB】根据Shiba Inu白皮书的表述,50%供应量的SHIB将会发送到V神钱包,以便销毁,这一转移已在2020年8月1日-3日之间完成。随着SHIB的大涨,V神拥有的SHIB价值已超过80亿美元。但大家都清楚,转移到V神钱包的SHIB并不意味着销毁,你认为V神会怎样处理这些代币呢? \n注:V神从未表示过与SHIB有任何关系。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4083,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":193320287,"gmtCreate":1620769212349,"gmtModify":1620769212349,"author":{"id":"3553231417553161","authorId":"3553231417553161","name":"ERIC2020520","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb088dbd0225aaa433f6d2eb54db7ced","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3553231417553161","authorIdStr":"3553231417553161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"好棒,透彻","listText":"好棒,透彻","text":"好棒,透彻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/193320287","repostId":"2134068641","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2759,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":107282322,"gmtCreate":1620511666566,"gmtModify":1620511666566,"author":{"id":"3553231417553161","authorId":"3553231417553161","name":"ERIC2020520","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb088dbd0225aaa433f6d2eb54db7ced","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3553231417553161","authorIdStr":"3553231417553161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"请问怎样交易狗狗币?","listText":"请问怎样交易狗狗币?","text":"请问怎样交易狗狗币?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/107282322","repostId":"1148265462","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2983,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":398622728,"gmtCreate":1606895642264,"gmtModify":1703845169554,"author":{"id":"3553231417553161","authorId":"3553231417553161","name":"ERIC2020520","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb088dbd0225aaa433f6d2eb54db7ced","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3553231417553161","authorIdStr":"3553231417553161"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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