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JaneLiu0128
IP属地：江苏
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JaneLiu0128
JaneLiu0128
·
10-02
连大垃圾芯片股，寒武纪，都上宇宙了，相信中芯国际
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JaneLiu0128
JaneLiu0128
·
09-11
$蔚来(NIO)$
上次融资是3月27日
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JaneLiu0128
JaneLiu0128
·
08-30
做空，9月2日中报有雷
财报前瞻 | 蔚来Q2交付7.2万辆，营收预计达199亿，盈利承诺成焦点
而在此前公司财测中，$蔚来$预计第二季度交付量将在7.2万至7.5万辆之间，同比增长25.5%至30.7%，环比增长71%至78%；营收指引则在195.13亿元至200.68亿元之间，同比增长11.8%至15.0%。市场预计其Q2仍将录得每股亏损约2.17元，尚未接近盈亏平衡点。Q2财报不仅是一份业绩答卷，更是一场信任测验。
财报前瞻 | 蔚来Q2交付7.2万辆，营收预计达199亿，盈利承诺成焦点
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JaneLiu0128
JaneLiu0128
·
08-27
大摩上当了
摩根士丹利：预计蔚来10月起月销量将达4-5万辆
观点网讯：8月26日，摩根士丹利发表研究报告指出，蔚来-SW股价自6月低位以来已累计上涨超过90%，同期恒指升9%。蔚来拥有强劲的ES8订单，尽管真正的需求仍取决于订单转化，但正面的反应支持市场信心，预示着从10月起，集团的月均销量或将达到4万至5万辆。蔚来股价的强劲表现，反映了市场对其未来增长潜力的乐观预期，尤其是在ES8订单强劲和市场情绪改善的背景下。
摩根士丹利：预计蔚来10月起月销量将达4-5万辆
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JaneLiu0128
JaneLiu0128
·
07-30
$蔚来(NIO)$
这么高价，三倍做空
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JaneLiu0128
JaneLiu0128
·
06-28
$游戏驿站(GME)$
呼映吉尔回归
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718
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JaneLiu0128
JaneLiu0128
·
06-06
$蔚来(NIO)$
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JaneLiu0128
JaneLiu0128
·
06-04
$蔚来(NIO)$
买入认沽了
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JaneLiu0128
JaneLiu0128
·
06-04
$蔚来(NIO)$
蔚来汽车公布了今年一季报，到3月底，蔚来股东权益为-3.66亿人民币，流动资产为497.9亿，而流动负债为594.92亿，流动资产比流动负债少了将近100亿。” 有句话叫亏得裤衩儿都没了，这话在蔚来身上，一点也不算过分了。 根据刚刚公布的2025年一季度财报，蔚来股东权益为-3.66亿人民币，2024年底，这一数据还为59.67亿人民币。
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JaneLiu0128
JaneLiu0128
·
06-03
$蔚来(NIO)$
奉劝投机客，不要抄底，否则必定输掉底裤
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$ </a>上次融资是3月27日","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$ </a>上次融资是3月27日","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 上次融资是3月27日","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/477408994799848","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":873,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":473051697098888,"gmtCreate":1756523240768,"gmtModify":1756523242544,"author":{"id":"3553287329671527","authorId":"3553287329671527","name":"JaneLiu0128","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3553287329671527","authorIdStr":"3553287329671527"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"做空，9月2日中报有雷","listText":"做空，9月2日中报有雷","text":"做空，9月2日中报有雷","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/473051697098888","repostId":"1176024294","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1176024294","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"专注财报前瞻、财报解析的大模型Agent","home_visible":1,"media_name":"财报Agent","id":"1017018787","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/decf3d8a922fc5c1c1d787bf8b36173f"},"pubTimestamp":1756353056,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176024294?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-08-28 11:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"财报前瞻 | 蔚来Q2交付7.2万辆，营收预计达199亿，盈利承诺成焦点","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176024294","media":"财报Agent","summary":"而在此前公司财测中，$蔚来$预计第二季度交付量将在7.2万至7.5万辆之间，同比增长25.5%至30.7%，环比增长71%至78%；营收指引则在195.13亿元至200.68亿元之间，同比增长11.8%至15.0%。市场预计其Q2仍将录得每股亏损约2.17元，尚未接近盈亏平衡点。Q2财报不仅是一份业绩答卷，更是一场信任测验。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>将于9月2日美股盘前公布2025年第二季度财报。市场焦点已从“能否活下去”转向“何时真正转盈”。这一财报将是决定全年业绩走势、甚至资本市场是否给予其重新定价的关键节点。</p><p>根据彭博社一致预期，公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTWO\">Q2</a>营收预计为199.6亿元人民币，同比增长14.4%；调整后每股亏损预计为2.17元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/007de8bf81cfc52186e67754616743af\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1207\" tg-height=\"407\"/></p><p>而在此前公司财测中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09866\">蔚来</a>预计第二季度交付量将在7.2万至7.5万辆之间，同比增长25.5%至30.7%，环比增长71%至78%；营收指引则在195.13亿元至200.68亿元之间，同比增长11.8%至15.0%。</p><h3 id=\"id_3742321244\">一、销量回暖，Q2营收或迎阶段性高点</h3><p>从实际交付数据来看，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO.SI\">蔚来</a>Q2交付72,056辆新车<em>，</em>同比增长25.6%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d49a51cc9db2bf0592168d3a525256a1\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1579\" tg-height=\"138\"/></p><p>这轮销量反弹背后，有两大核心动因：</p><h3 id=\"id_2663894462\">1. 品牌矩阵加速落地</h3><p>除了主品牌蔚来，乐道与萤火虫两大新品牌于6月正式放量，为整体交付贡献显著。其中，乐道L60精准定位主流家庭市场，瞄准20–30万元区间，成为销量增长的新引擎。</p><h3 id=\"id_3406494588\">2. 产品力与智能化的持续领先</h3><p>基于NT2.0平台的车型在智能座舱、驾驶辅助与操控性能上持续进化，全系标配的换电能力也大幅提升了用户粘性与复购率。</p><p>销量回暖带动营收回升，但真正决定市场信心的，仍是盈利能力的改善。</p><h2 id=\"id_3722422543\">二、盈利仍在路上：蔚来必须兑现“Q4盈利”承诺</h2><p>尽管销量持续刷新历史纪录，蔚来依旧深陷亏损泥潭，盈利之路尚未完全显现曙光。市场普遍预计其2025财年第二季度仍将录得每股亏损约2.17元，距离盈亏平衡仍有较大差距。</p><p>回顾第一季度，蔚来营收达到120.35亿元，同比增长21%，但环比大幅下滑38.9%；净亏损则达到67.5亿元，同比扩大30.2%，环比仅小幅收窄5.1%。这反映出在宏观经济压力和行业周期波动的双重影响下，公司盈利承压依旧明显。</p><p>尽管交付量表现亮眼，一季度新车交付42,094辆，同比增长超40%，但因季节因素和产品更新周期，环比下降42.1%。这一点也折射出蔚来在销售节奏上的波动性，短期盈利稳定性尚需加强。</p><p>更令人担忧的是，亏损规模依旧高企：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>每股亏损达3.29元，处于较高水平；</p></li><li><p>扣除股权激励后，调整后净亏损仍高达62.8亿元，同比扩大28.1%。</p></li></ul><p>面对这一巨大盈利压力，蔚来管理层公开承诺将于2025年第四季度实现盈亏平衡，并提出四大硬性财务与运营指标作为实现目标的保障。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55d1c6be1690ce3dc13ca801ce4d5cdd\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"876\" tg-height=\"250\"/></p><p>从目前数据来看，销量增长正逐步接近目标，Q2毛利率预计有望反弹至10%以上，这对缓解亏损压力是积极信号。但要实现真正盈利，蔚来仍面临成本控制、毛利提升及运营效率协同等多重挑战，任何一环失控都可能拖累整体进程。</p><h2 id=\"id_1967105210\">三、自研、降本与定价：盈利路径逐步清晰</h2><p>与过去依赖高额补贴和快速扩张的“高举高打”战略不同，蔚来正通过“技术创新+精细化管理”双轮驱动，探索更务实且可持续的盈利模型。</p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p><strong>自研体系逐步落地</strong></p><p>蔚来在核心硬件自主研发上的投入初见成效：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>激光雷达主控芯片和座舱芯片已实现自主研发，降低对外部供应链依赖；</p></li><li><p>单车硬件成本降低超过1万元；</p></li><li><p>关键三大系统——操作系统、智能驾驶系统、底盘控制系统实现自主可控，大幅压缩供应链成本风险。</p></li></ul></li><li><p><strong>降本控费成效初显</strong></p><p>公司在费用管控方面持续发力：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>销售及管理费用逐步下降，控制开支更为精准；</p></li><li><p>直营销售体系趋于收敛，重点提升坪效及用户生命周期价值；</p></li><li><p>服务网络优化，避免资源无效扩张，提升整体运营效率。</p></li></ul></li><li><p><strong>产品定价策略更接地气</strong></p><p>蔚来正调整定价策略，聚焦性价比：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>不再盲目追求高价，比如乐道L60定价较特斯拉Model Y低约10%，却在智能化配置上实现差异化优势；</p></li><li><p>更注重“价格力”与“市场渗透率”，提升产品转化效率，加速市场占有率扩展。</p></li></ul></li></ol><p>总体来看，蔚来正在着力解决三大核心痛点：单车毛利不足、费用结构过重以及产品定价与市场需求错位。虽然这些调整尚需时间兑现成效，但盈利路径日渐明朗。</p><h2 id=\"id_1085155004\">四、市场重估蔚来：不再唱衰，但必须兑现</h2><p>进入2025年下半年，蔚来股价自年初低点反弹近一倍，市场情绪明显转向积极。投资者对其未来前景的认知也由“濒临危机”逐渐转变为“具备翻盘潜力”。</p><p><strong>机构态度趋于乐观</strong></p><p>摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）近期将蔚来评级从“持有”上调至“增持”，理由是“盈利路径日益清晰，销量具备持续放量能力”。</p><p>然而，市场普遍认为本轮股价上涨更多是“预期修复”而非业绩根本性改善。换句话说，蔚来能否真正兑现盈利承诺，将成为驱动后续行情的核心变量。</p><p><strong>未来几个关键观察点包括：</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>盈利亏损是否继续环比收窄，亏损幅度能否得到有效控制；</p></li><li><p>毛利率是否保持持续改善趋势，反映出成本控制与产品定价的有效性；</p></li><li><p>第三季度交付量能否延续增长势头，支撑收入稳健增长；</p></li><li><p>第四季度盈利目标是否得到重申或甚至上调，验证管理层执行力。</p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_3081398121\">总结：从“活下去”到“活得好”，蔚来的战役才刚开始</h2><p>蔚来已逐步走出最艰难的生存困境，但要进入持续盈利的良性循环，仍需一次次用财报数据赢得资本市场的信任。财报不仅是业绩的答卷，更是一次信任的测验。</p><p>投资者和市场将通过即将发布的2025财年第二季度财报，判断蔚来究竟是“兑现承诺的少数企业”，还是陷入“故事讲述的惯性循环”。</p><p>这份财报的成败，将决定蔚来未来能否真正从增长故事走向盈利范式转型。答案将在9月2日揭晓。</p><p><em>此内容基于tiger AI及彭博数据生成，内容仅供参考。</em></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>财报前瞻 | 蔚来Q2交付7.2万辆，营收预计达199亿，盈利承诺成焦点</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n财报前瞻 | 蔚来Q2交付7.2万辆，营收预计达199亿，盈利承诺成焦点\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1017018787\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/decf3d8a922fc5c1c1d787bf8b36173f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">财报Agent </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-08-28 11:50</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>将于9月2日美股盘前公布2025年第二季度财报。市场焦点已从“能否活下去”转向“何时真正转盈”。这一财报将是决定全年业绩走势、甚至资本市场是否给予其重新定价的关键节点。</p><p>根据彭博社一致预期，公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTWO\">Q2</a>营收预计为199.6亿元人民币，同比增长14.4%；调整后每股亏损预计为2.17元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/007de8bf81cfc52186e67754616743af\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1207\" tg-height=\"407\"/></p><p>而在此前公司财测中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09866\">蔚来</a>预计第二季度交付量将在7.2万至7.5万辆之间，同比增长25.5%至30.7%，环比增长71%至78%；营收指引则在195.13亿元至200.68亿元之间，同比增长11.8%至15.0%。</p><h3 id=\"id_3742321244\">一、销量回暖，Q2营收或迎阶段性高点</h3><p>从实际交付数据来看，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO.SI\">蔚来</a>Q2交付72,056辆新车<em>，</em>同比增长25.6%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d49a51cc9db2bf0592168d3a525256a1\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1579\" tg-height=\"138\"/></p><p>这轮销量反弹背后，有两大核心动因：</p><h3 id=\"id_2663894462\">1. 品牌矩阵加速落地</h3><p>除了主品牌蔚来，乐道与萤火虫两大新品牌于6月正式放量，为整体交付贡献显著。其中，乐道L60精准定位主流家庭市场，瞄准20–30万元区间，成为销量增长的新引擎。</p><h3 id=\"id_3406494588\">2. 产品力与智能化的持续领先</h3><p>基于NT2.0平台的车型在智能座舱、驾驶辅助与操控性能上持续进化，全系标配的换电能力也大幅提升了用户粘性与复购率。</p><p>销量回暖带动营收回升，但真正决定市场信心的，仍是盈利能力的改善。</p><h2 id=\"id_3722422543\">二、盈利仍在路上：蔚来必须兑现“Q4盈利”承诺</h2><p>尽管销量持续刷新历史纪录，蔚来依旧深陷亏损泥潭，盈利之路尚未完全显现曙光。市场普遍预计其2025财年第二季度仍将录得每股亏损约2.17元，距离盈亏平衡仍有较大差距。</p><p>回顾第一季度，蔚来营收达到120.35亿元，同比增长21%，但环比大幅下滑38.9%；净亏损则达到67.5亿元，同比扩大30.2%，环比仅小幅收窄5.1%。这反映出在宏观经济压力和行业周期波动的双重影响下，公司盈利承压依旧明显。</p><p>尽管交付量表现亮眼，一季度新车交付42,094辆，同比增长超40%，但因季节因素和产品更新周期，环比下降42.1%。这一点也折射出蔚来在销售节奏上的波动性，短期盈利稳定性尚需加强。</p><p>更令人担忧的是，亏损规模依旧高企：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>每股亏损达3.29元，处于较高水平；</p></li><li><p>扣除股权激励后，调整后净亏损仍高达62.8亿元，同比扩大28.1%。</p></li></ul><p>面对这一巨大盈利压力，蔚来管理层公开承诺将于2025年第四季度实现盈亏平衡，并提出四大硬性财务与运营指标作为实现目标的保障。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55d1c6be1690ce3dc13ca801ce4d5cdd\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"876\" tg-height=\"250\"/></p><p>从目前数据来看，销量增长正逐步接近目标，Q2毛利率预计有望反弹至10%以上，这对缓解亏损压力是积极信号。但要实现真正盈利，蔚来仍面临成本控制、毛利提升及运营效率协同等多重挑战，任何一环失控都可能拖累整体进程。</p><h2 id=\"id_1967105210\">三、自研、降本与定价：盈利路径逐步清晰</h2><p>与过去依赖高额补贴和快速扩张的“高举高打”战略不同，蔚来正通过“技术创新+精细化管理”双轮驱动，探索更务实且可持续的盈利模型。</p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p><strong>自研体系逐步落地</strong></p><p>蔚来在核心硬件自主研发上的投入初见成效：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>激光雷达主控芯片和座舱芯片已实现自主研发，降低对外部供应链依赖；</p></li><li><p>单车硬件成本降低超过1万元；</p></li><li><p>关键三大系统——操作系统、智能驾驶系统、底盘控制系统实现自主可控，大幅压缩供应链成本风险。</p></li></ul></li><li><p><strong>降本控费成效初显</strong></p><p>公司在费用管控方面持续发力：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>销售及管理费用逐步下降，控制开支更为精准；</p></li><li><p>直营销售体系趋于收敛，重点提升坪效及用户生命周期价值；</p></li><li><p>服务网络优化，避免资源无效扩张，提升整体运营效率。</p></li></ul></li><li><p><strong>产品定价策略更接地气</strong></p><p>蔚来正调整定价策略，聚焦性价比：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>不再盲目追求高价，比如乐道L60定价较特斯拉Model Y低约10%，却在智能化配置上实现差异化优势；</p></li><li><p>更注重“价格力”与“市场渗透率”，提升产品转化效率，加速市场占有率扩展。</p></li></ul></li></ol><p>总体来看，蔚来正在着力解决三大核心痛点：单车毛利不足、费用结构过重以及产品定价与市场需求错位。虽然这些调整尚需时间兑现成效，但盈利路径日渐明朗。</p><h2 id=\"id_1085155004\">四、市场重估蔚来：不再唱衰，但必须兑现</h2><p>进入2025年下半年，蔚来股价自年初低点反弹近一倍，市场情绪明显转向积极。投资者对其未来前景的认知也由“濒临危机”逐渐转变为“具备翻盘潜力”。</p><p><strong>机构态度趋于乐观</strong></p><p>摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）近期将蔚来评级从“持有”上调至“增持”，理由是“盈利路径日益清晰，销量具备持续放量能力”。</p><p>然而，市场普遍认为本轮股价上涨更多是“预期修复”而非业绩根本性改善。换句话说，蔚来能否真正兑现盈利承诺，将成为驱动后续行情的核心变量。</p><p><strong>未来几个关键观察点包括：</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>盈利亏损是否继续环比收窄，亏损幅度能否得到有效控制；</p></li><li><p>毛利率是否保持持续改善趋势，反映出成本控制与产品定价的有效性；</p></li><li><p>第三季度交付量能否延续增长势头，支撑收入稳健增长；</p></li><li><p>第四季度盈利目标是否得到重申或甚至上调，验证管理层执行力。</p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_3081398121\">总结：从“活下去”到“活得好”，蔚来的战役才刚开始</h2><p>蔚来已逐步走出最艰难的生存困境，但要进入持续盈利的良性循环，仍需一次次用财报数据赢得资本市场的信任。财报不仅是业绩的答卷，更是一次信任的测验。</p><p>投资者和市场将通过即将发布的2025财年第二季度财报，判断蔚来究竟是“兑现承诺的少数企业”，还是陷入“故事讲述的惯性循环”。</p><p>这份财报的成败，将决定蔚来未来能否真正从增长故事走向盈利范式转型。答案将在9月2日揭晓。</p><p><em>此内容基于tiger AI及彭博数据生成，内容仅供参考。</em></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/feebf0ff4401232c3ecc332f566f18e0","relate_stocks":{"BK4588":"碎股","BK1119":"汽车制造商","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4509":"腾讯概念","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0320764599.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton China A Acc SGD","NIO":"蔚来","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4555":"新能源车","BK6125":"汽车制造商","BK4574":"无人驾驶","09866":"蔚来-SW","BK4531":"中概回港概念","LU0052750758.USD":"富兰克林中国基金A Acc"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176024294","content_text":"蔚来将于9月2日美股盘前公布2025年第二季度财报。市场焦点已从“能否活下去”转向“何时真正转盈”。这一财报将是决定全年业绩走势、甚至资本市场是否给予其重新定价的关键节点。根据彭博社一致预期，公司Q2营收预计为199.6亿元人民币，同比增长14.4%；调整后每股亏损预计为2.17元。而在此前公司财测中，蔚来预计第二季度交付量将在7.2万至7.5万辆之间，同比增长25.5%至30.7%，环比增长71%至78%；营收指引则在195.13亿元至200.68亿元之间，同比增长11.8%至15.0%。一、销量回暖，Q2营收或迎阶段性高点从实际交付数据来看，蔚来Q2交付72,056辆新车，同比增长25.6%。这轮销量反弹背后，有两大核心动因：1. 品牌矩阵加速落地除了主品牌蔚来，乐道与萤火虫两大新品牌于6月正式放量，为整体交付贡献显著。其中，乐道L60精准定位主流家庭市场，瞄准20–30万元区间，成为销量增长的新引擎。2. 产品力与智能化的持续领先基于NT2.0平台的车型在智能座舱、驾驶辅助与操控性能上持续进化，全系标配的换电能力也大幅提升了用户粘性与复购率。销量回暖带动营收回升，但真正决定市场信心的，仍是盈利能力的改善。二、盈利仍在路上：蔚来必须兑现“Q4盈利”承诺尽管销量持续刷新历史纪录，蔚来依旧深陷亏损泥潭，盈利之路尚未完全显现曙光。市场普遍预计其2025财年第二季度仍将录得每股亏损约2.17元，距离盈亏平衡仍有较大差距。回顾第一季度，蔚来营收达到120.35亿元，同比增长21%，但环比大幅下滑38.9%；净亏损则达到67.5亿元，同比扩大30.2%，环比仅小幅收窄5.1%。这反映出在宏观经济压力和行业周期波动的双重影响下，公司盈利承压依旧明显。尽管交付量表现亮眼，一季度新车交付42,094辆，同比增长超40%，但因季节因素和产品更新周期，环比下降42.1%。这一点也折射出蔚来在销售节奏上的波动性，短期盈利稳定性尚需加强。更令人担忧的是，亏损规模依旧高企：每股亏损达3.29元，处于较高水平；扣除股权激励后，调整后净亏损仍高达62.8亿元，同比扩大28.1%。面对这一巨大盈利压力，蔚来管理层公开承诺将于2025年第四季度实现盈亏平衡，并提出四大硬性财务与运营指标作为实现目标的保障。从目前数据来看，销量增长正逐步接近目标，Q2毛利率预计有望反弹至10%以上，这对缓解亏损压力是积极信号。但要实现真正盈利，蔚来仍面临成本控制、毛利提升及运营效率协同等多重挑战，任何一环失控都可能拖累整体进程。三、自研、降本与定价：盈利路径逐步清晰与过去依赖高额补贴和快速扩张的“高举高打”战略不同，蔚来正通过“技术创新+精细化管理”双轮驱动，探索更务实且可持续的盈利模型。自研体系逐步落地蔚来在核心硬件自主研发上的投入初见成效：激光雷达主控芯片和座舱芯片已实现自主研发，降低对外部供应链依赖；单车硬件成本降低超过1万元；关键三大系统——操作系统、智能驾驶系统、底盘控制系统实现自主可控，大幅压缩供应链成本风险。降本控费成效初显公司在费用管控方面持续发力：销售及管理费用逐步下降，控制开支更为精准；直营销售体系趋于收敛，重点提升坪效及用户生命周期价值；服务网络优化，避免资源无效扩张，提升整体运营效率。产品定价策略更接地气蔚来正调整定价策略，聚焦性价比：不再盲目追求高价，比如乐道L60定价较特斯拉Model Y低约10%，却在智能化配置上实现差异化优势；更注重“价格力”与“市场渗透率”，提升产品转化效率，加速市场占有率扩展。总体来看，蔚来正在着力解决三大核心痛点：单车毛利不足、费用结构过重以及产品定价与市场需求错位。虽然这些调整尚需时间兑现成效，但盈利路径日渐明朗。四、市场重估蔚来：不再唱衰，但必须兑现进入2025年下半年，蔚来股价自年初低点反弹近一倍，市场情绪明显转向积极。投资者对其未来前景的认知也由“濒临危机”逐渐转变为“具备翻盘潜力”。机构态度趋于乐观摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）近期将蔚来评级从“持有”上调至“增持”，理由是“盈利路径日益清晰，销量具备持续放量能力”。然而，市场普遍认为本轮股价上涨更多是“预期修复”而非业绩根本性改善。换句话说，蔚来能否真正兑现盈利承诺，将成为驱动后续行情的核心变量。未来几个关键观察点包括：盈利亏损是否继续环比收窄，亏损幅度能否得到有效控制；毛利率是否保持持续改善趋势，反映出成本控制与产品定价的有效性；第三季度交付量能否延续增长势头，支撑收入稳健增长；第四季度盈利目标是否得到重申或甚至上调，验证管理层执行力。总结：从“活下去”到“活得好”，蔚来的战役才刚开始蔚来已逐步走出最艰难的生存困境，但要进入持续盈利的良性循环，仍需一次次用财报数据赢得资本市场的信任。财报不仅是业绩的答卷，更是一次信任的测验。投资者和市场将通过即将发布的2025财年第二季度财报，判断蔚来究竟是“兑现承诺的少数企业”，还是陷入“故事讲述的惯性循环”。这份财报的成败，将决定蔚来未来能否真正从增长故事走向盈利范式转型。答案将在9月2日揭晓。此内容基于tiger AI及彭博数据生成，内容仅供参考。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09866":1,"NIO":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":797,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3519339530941156","authorId":"3519339530941156","name":"LOMO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0db38df8c7e105e12ef37fe82a024b99","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3519339530941156","authorIdStr":"3519339530941156"},"content":"做空赚了点跑路了，目前还是看空，无论是市场竞争还是公司运营以及大环境都不看好它，但目前散户看涨情绪高涨，万一财报有一点利好有可能大涨，先跑了再观望一下[捂脸]","text":"做空赚了点跑路了，目前还是看空，无论是市场竞争还是公司运营以及大环境都不看好它，但目前散户看涨情绪高涨，万一财报有一点利好有可能大涨，先跑了再观望一下[捂脸]","html":"做空赚了点跑路了，目前还是看空，无论是市场竞争还是公司运营以及大环境都不看好它，但目前散户看涨情绪高涨，万一财报有一点利好有可能大涨，先跑了再观望一下[捂脸]"},{"author":{"id":"3545946507007428","authorId":"3545946507007428","name":"我是一颗嫩韭菜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/706c27d434b295d97774011a9ba5d2ee","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3545946507007428","authorIdStr":"3545946507007428"},"content":"已经资不抵债","text":"已经资不抵债","html":"已经资不抵债"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":472103540069136,"gmtCreate":1756291147395,"gmtModify":1756291149150,"author":{"id":"3553287329671527","authorId":"3553287329671527","name":"JaneLiu0128","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3553287329671527","authorIdStr":"3553287329671527"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"大摩上当了","listText":"大摩上当了","text":"大摩上当了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/472103540069136","repostId":"2562879206","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2562879206","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1756179960,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2562879206?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-08-26 11:46","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"摩根士丹利：预计蔚来10月起月销量将达4-5万辆","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2562879206","media":"观点网","summary":"观点网讯：8月26日，摩根士丹利发表研究报告指出，蔚来-SW股价自6月低位以来已累计上涨超过90%，同期恒指升9%。蔚来拥有强劲的ES8订单，尽管真正的需求仍取决于订单转化，但正面的反应支持市场信心，预示着从10月起，集团的月均销量或将达到4万至5万辆。蔚来股价的强劲表现，反映了市场对其未来增长潜力的乐观预期，尤其是在ES8订单强劲和市场情绪改善的背景下。","content":"<p>8月26日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>发表研究报告指出，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09866\">蔚来-SW</a>（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">NIO</a>.US）股价自6月低位以来已累计上涨超过90%，同期恒指升9%。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO.SI\">蔚来</a>拥有强劲的ES8订单，尽管真正的需求仍取决于订单转化，但正面的反应支持市场信心，预示着从10月起，集团的月均销量或将达到4万至5万辆。此外，市场情绪有所转变，虽然对蔚来的复苏可持续性仍有争议，但投资者已更关注2026年推出的车型，而非执行风险。</p><p>该行认为，蔚来股价上升属自我强化，因投资者相信股价与资本市场对参与蔚来经营融资及战略目标的意愿相关，亦与经营价值及是否有能力过渡汽车行业加快“洗牌”有所关联。蔚来股价的强劲表现，反映了市场对其未来增长潜力的乐观预期，尤其是在ES8订单强劲和市场情绪改善的背景下。同时，投资者对蔚来2026年新车型的期待，也为其股价提供了进一步上涨的动力。</p>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta 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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2025082611482297615664&s=b><strong>观点网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>8月26日，摩根士丹利发表研究报告指出，蔚来-SW（NIO.US）股价自6月低位以来已累计上涨超过90%，同期恒指升9%。蔚来拥有强劲的ES8订单，尽管真正的需求仍取决于订单转化，但正面的反应支持市场信心，预示着从10月起，集团的月均销量或将达到4万至5万辆。此外，市场情绪有所转变，虽然对蔚来的复苏可持续性仍有争议，但投资者已更关注2026年推出的车型，而非执行风险。该行认为，蔚来股价上升属自我...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2025082611482297615664&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","LU2111349929.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AM\" (HKD) INC","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","09866":"蔚来-SW","LU2271345857.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services 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买入认沽了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/442474187719056","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1145,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":442401345896760,"gmtCreate":1749030476008,"gmtModify":1749031151271,"author":{"id":"3553287329671527","authorId":"3553287329671527","name":"JaneLiu0128","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3553287329671527","authorIdStr":"3553287329671527"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$ </a>蔚来汽车公布了今年一季报，到3月底，蔚来股东权益为-3.66亿人民币，流动资产为497.9亿，而流动负债为594.92亿，流动资产比流动负债少了将近100亿。” 有句话叫亏得裤衩儿都没了，这话在蔚来身上，一点也不算过分了。 根据刚刚公布的2025年一季度财报，蔚来股东权益为-3.66亿人民币，2024年底，这一数据还为59.67亿人民币。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$ </a>蔚来汽车公布了今年一季报，到3月底，蔚来股东权益为-3.66亿人民币，流动资产为497.9亿，而流动负债为594.92亿，流动资产比流动负债少了将近100亿。” 有句话叫亏得裤衩儿都没了，这话在蔚来身上，一点也不算过分了。 根据刚刚公布的2025年一季度财报，蔚来股东权益为-3.66亿人民币，2024年底，这一数据还为59.67亿人民币。","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 蔚来汽车公布了今年一季报，到3月底，蔚来股东权益为-3.66亿人民币，流动资产为497.9亿，而流动负债为594.92亿，流动资产比流动负债少了将近100亿。” 有句话叫亏得裤衩儿都没了，这话在蔚来身上，一点也不算过分了。 根据刚刚公布的2025年一季度财报，蔚来股东权益为-3.66亿人民币，2024年底，这一数据还为59.67亿人民币。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/442401345896760","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2306,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":442135249277224,"gmtCreate":1748965723274,"gmtModify":1749005668271,"author":{"id":"3553287329671527","authorId":"3553287329671527","name":"JaneLiu0128","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3553287329671527","authorIdStr":"3553287329671527"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$ </a>奉劝投机客，不要抄底，否则必定输掉底裤","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$ </a>奉劝投机客，不要抄底，否则必定输掉底裤","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 奉劝投机客，不要抄底，否则必定输掉底裤","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/442135249277224","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1789,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}