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蓝宝石_4162
蓝宝石_4162
·
2024-04-15
这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看
@阳光财经：
美股分析赚钱：情报战火纷飞？恐慌情绪蔓延 ，美股提前避险！
美股分析赚钱：情报战火纷飞？恐慌情绪蔓延 ，美股提前避险！
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蓝宝石_4162
蓝宝石_4162
·
2022-01-24
[汗颜] [汗颜]
如果标普再现超10%下跌，联储还会服软吗？
近期美股大跌将对美联储政策产生怎样的影响？
如果标普再现超10%下跌，联储还会服软吗？
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蓝宝石_4162
蓝宝石_4162
·
2022-01-06
有点快撑不住了，想跑，但是又不甘心[难过]
🚀【1月6日】一夜血洗，美股重挫，热门中概多数下滑，今天买点啥
@Buy_Sell：
聊聊今日份的交易想法，包括对于大盘走势后续的看法？看涨/看跌哪只股票、晒晒单等等。 港股市场 1月6日讯，隔夜美股下挫，港股主要指数低开，恒指跌0.28%，国指跌0.13%，恒生科技指数跌0.71%。 盘面上，科技股多数走低，$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$ 涨2.6%，$百度集团-SW(09888)$ 涨1.2%，$腾讯控股(00700)$ 、$快手-W(01024)$ 跌超2%；疫情急速恶化，香港本地股集体下跌，$九龙仓置业(01997)$ 跌超4%，电力股继续回撤，保险股、燃气股普跌；内房股反弹，禹洲集团大涨超9%，锂电池股、啤酒股，海运股走强。 $美东汽车(01268)$ 跌超11%，拟折价配股及溢价发可换股债券，净筹逾34.6亿元。 $中国华融(02799)$ 跌近15%，延续昨日跌势。 美股市场 美股周三大幅收跌，美联储纪要显示联储认为必须加快加息步伐。道指跌幅1.07%，纳指跌3.34%，标普500指数跌1.94%。 美国科技龙头继续带头下跌。$苹果(AAPL)$ 跌2.66%、
🚀【1月6日】一夜血洗，美股重挫，热门中概多数下滑，今天买点啥
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蓝宝石_4162
蓝宝石_4162
·
2021-12-17
$标普500指数ETF(IVV)$
稳吗
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蓝宝石_4162
蓝宝石_4162
·
2021-12-03
$Sea Ltd(SE)$
跌跌不休了吗？！有大神啥原因吗
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蓝宝石_4162
蓝宝石_4162
·
2021-11-24
$AMD(AMD)$
好股[强]
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蓝宝石_4162
蓝宝石_4162
·
2021-06-09
$维珍银河(SPCE)$
[666]
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蓝宝石_4162
蓝宝石_4162
·
2021-05-06
$维珍银河(SPCE)$
未来[666]
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蓝宝石_4162
蓝宝石_4162
·
2021-04-16
$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$
庄开始行动了吗
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蓝宝石_4162
蓝宝石_4162
·
2021-04-13
$Aphria Inc.(APHA)$
还有谁在获利，没底了[愤怒]
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3
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\n \n 美股分析赚钱：情报战火纷飞？恐慌情绪蔓延 ，美股提前避险！\n \n","listText":"美股分析赚钱：情报战火纷飞？恐慌情绪蔓延 ，美股提前避险！","text":"美股分析赚钱：情报战火纷飞？恐慌情绪蔓延 ，美股提前避险！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/294804233986136","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"060558cc608c47d5ac35b59306bfb77b","tweetId":"294804233986136","title":"美股分析赚钱：情报战火纷飞？恐慌情绪蔓延 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[汗颜]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630460858","repostId":"2205073536","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2205073536","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1642990901,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2205073536?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-24 10:21","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"如果标普再现超10%下跌，联储还会服软吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2205073536","media":"格隆汇","summary":"近期美股大跌将对美联储政策产生怎样的影响？","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><b>摘要: </b><b>兴业证券表示，2022年以来，标普回撤幅度已接近8%。如若出现超10%回撤，美国需求会随之转弱，联储“向市场低头”。</b></blockquote><p><b>2022年以来，美国股债双杀：标普500指数跌幅近8%，纳斯达克跌幅超12%，10年期美债利率较年初一度上行超过35bp。对此我们的看法：</b></p><p><b>2009年后，联储收紧引发美股的大幅回撤，幅度分别为15%、17%、13%。</b>金融危机后，标普500多次因为联储转鹰出现大幅、快速的下跌。</p><p>2010年4月联储结束QE1，标普在约两个半月内下跌15%；</p><p>2011年6月联储结束QE2，标普在约两周内下跌17%；</p><p>2018年12月联储加息指引超预期鹰派，标普在约20天内下跌13%.</p><p><b>美股超10%的回撤后，美国需求也随之转弱，联储“向市场低头”。</b></p><p>2010年4月，联储退出叠加财政对地产的支持政策退出，股价和房价二次下跌并拖累消费，联储于2010年6月转鸽、8月开启QE2;</p><p>2011年6月，联储退出后，欧债危机再次发酵、市场担忧美国财政悬崖、美债降级，联储于2011年8月调整对经济的判断、9月宣布OT；</p><p>2018年底美股波动拖累居民消费，联储于2019年1月删除了加息的前瞻指引、3月宣布结束缩表、8月启动降息周期。</p><p><b>2022年以来，美国市场担忧联储超预期收紧，标普回撤幅度已接近8%。</b>2021年12月以来，出于高通胀压力，联储连续释放鹰派信号。近期，地缘政治因素推升油价加剧通胀担忧，市场一度押注3月FOMC会议加息50bp。虽然美国12月零售数据、1月纽约制造业数据显著低于预期，但随着联储将重心转向通胀，美债近期似乎对需求走弱不太敏感。美债利率的快速上行也使得纳斯达克在内的成长股明显回调。</p><p><b>考虑到市场调整或给经济带来负反馈，本次联储“认怂”的概率也在上升。</b>我们此前持续提示（详参《缝缝补补又一年》），危机后（尤其是疫情以来）美国居民消费和政府支出对股债市场的依赖快速加深。这意味着，美股大幅回调将直接影响居民收入和消费倾向，进而可能拖累消费；美债利率的冲杀也将进一步推升美国政府当前巨大的付息能力；考虑到疫后联储持有美债占比快速升至20%，联储缩表也会给美国财政部融资带来压力。这使得联储此前的操作一直 “覆水难收”。从这个角度而言，近期美国股债双杀，已开始挤压联储鹰派的空间，这意味着联储“认怂”的压力也在上升。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fac922a9b491d74edf136b6af8b14a1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"406\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>风险提示：美联储货币政策超预期收紧，全球市场超预期波动。</b></p><p><b>正文</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a34770bfaae765f1d5a18d891aa56909\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"505\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/406a58576b735efb2f1addf53fa2239a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"495\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b77299a7d8f8921c3e21fd15981b2b8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f10c7f779e1309373055f877835135cb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"707\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04ce2ab6dff8a0f2b72c3034573b1e88\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"562\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5243c0f6fe584892de27ffba77bef27a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"553\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/457b35504bac351c0161a982a8ebfbce\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"548\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/527c0879454a64858c985e2150c4904a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"569\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c27375bd833f15c2d087903be9120f8b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"543\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e528d15e19caf3071286942d371a7a23\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a4d0b7ab3442f0bbf8ea8e84965094d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"610\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>风险提示：美联储货币政策超预期收紧，全球市场超预期波动。</b></p></body></html>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>如果标普再现超10%下跌，联储还会服软吗？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n如果标普再现超10%下跌，联储还会服软吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-24 10:21 北京时间 <a href=http://www.gelonghui.com/p/507250><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摘要: 兴业证券表示，2022年以来，标普回撤幅度已接近8%。如若出现超10%回撤，美国需求会随之转弱，联储“向市场低头”。2022年以来，美国股债双杀：标普500指数跌幅近8%，纳斯达克跌幅超12%，10年期美债利率较年初一度上行超过35bp。对此我们的看法：2009年后，联储收紧引发美股的大幅回撤，幅度分别为15%、17%、13%。金融危机后，标普500多次因为联储转鹰出现大幅、快速的下跌。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/507250\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb327f580527889cf30bafa92692ae","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/507250","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2205073536","content_text":"摘要: 兴业证券表示，2022年以来，标普回撤幅度已接近8%。如若出现超10%回撤，美国需求会随之转弱，联储“向市场低头”。2022年以来，美国股债双杀：标普500指数跌幅近8%，纳斯达克跌幅超12%，10年期美债利率较年初一度上行超过35bp。对此我们的看法：2009年后，联储收紧引发美股的大幅回撤，幅度分别为15%、17%、13%。金融危机后，标普500多次因为联储转鹰出现大幅、快速的下跌。2010年4月联储结束QE1，标普在约两个半月内下跌15%；2011年6月联储结束QE2，标普在约两周内下跌17%；2018年12月联储加息指引超预期鹰派，标普在约20天内下跌13%.美股超10%的回撤后，美国需求也随之转弱，联储“向市场低头”。2010年4月，联储退出叠加财政对地产的支持政策退出，股价和房价二次下跌并拖累消费，联储于2010年6月转鸽、8月开启QE2;2011年6月，联储退出后，欧债危机再次发酵、市场担忧美国财政悬崖、美债降级，联储于2011年8月调整对经济的判断、9月宣布OT；2018年底美股波动拖累居民消费，联储于2019年1月删除了加息的前瞻指引、3月宣布结束缩表、8月启动降息周期。2022年以来，美国市场担忧联储超预期收紧，标普回撤幅度已接近8%。2021年12月以来，出于高通胀压力，联储连续释放鹰派信号。近期，地缘政治因素推升油价加剧通胀担忧，市场一度押注3月FOMC会议加息50bp。虽然美国12月零售数据、1月纽约制造业数据显著低于预期，但随着联储将重心转向通胀，美债近期似乎对需求走弱不太敏感。美债利率的快速上行也使得纳斯达克在内的成长股明显回调。考虑到市场调整或给经济带来负反馈，本次联储“认怂”的概率也在上升。我们此前持续提示（详参《缝缝补补又一年》），危机后（尤其是疫情以来）美国居民消费和政府支出对股债市场的依赖快速加深。这意味着，美股大幅回调将直接影响居民收入和消费倾向，进而可能拖累消费；美债利率的冲杀也将进一步推升美国政府当前巨大的付息能力；考虑到疫后联储持有美债占比快速升至20%，联储缩表也会给美国财政部融资带来压力。这使得联储此前的操作一直 “覆水难收”。从这个角度而言，近期美国股债双杀，已开始挤压联储鹰派的空间，这意味着联储“认怂”的压力也在上升。风险提示：美联储货币政策超预期收紧，全球市场超预期波动。正文风险提示：美联储货币政策超预期收紧，全球市场超预期波动。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2129,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":695295196,"gmtCreate":1641463831715,"gmtModify":1641463831715,"author":{"id":"3554954497090648","authorId":"3554954497090648","name":"蓝宝石_4162","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01c9b10062d07ab87485588a125c5d30","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554954497090648","authorIdStr":"3554954497090648"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"有点快撑不住了，想跑，但是又不甘心[难过]","listText":"有点快撑不住了，想跑，但是又不甘心[难过]","text":"有点快撑不住了，想跑，但是又不甘心[难过]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/695295196","repostId":"695697547","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":695697547,"gmtCreate":1641437421069,"gmtModify":1641452980581,"author":{"id":"3527667596890271","authorId":"3527667596890271","name":"Buy_Sell","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5f0ed79a338c758a22e0b4ea13bf9d2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667596890271","authorIdStr":"3527667596890271"},"themes":[],"title":"🚀【1月6日】一夜血洗，美股重挫，热门中概多数下滑，今天买点啥","htmlText":"聊聊今日份的交易想法，包括对于大盘走势后续的看法？看涨/看跌哪只股票、晒晒单等等。 港股市场 1月6日讯，隔夜美股下挫，港股主要指数低开，恒指跌0.28%，国指跌0.13%，恒生科技指数跌0.71%。 盘面上，科技股多数走低，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a> 涨2.6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">$百度集团-SW(09888)$</a> 涨1.2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">$快手-W(01024)$</a> 跌超2%；疫情急速恶化，香港本地股集体下跌，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01997\">$九龙仓置业(01997)$</a> 跌超4%，电力股继续回撤，保险股、燃气股普跌；内房股反弹，禹洲集团大涨超9%，锂电池股、啤酒股，海运股走强。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01268\">$美东汽车(01268)$</a> 跌超11%，拟折价配股及溢价发可换股债券，净筹逾34.6亿元。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02799\">$中国华融(02799)$</a> 跌近15%，延续昨日跌势。 美股市场 美股周三大幅收跌，美联储纪要显示联储认为必须加快加息步伐。道指跌幅1.07%，纳指跌3.34%，标普500指数跌1.94%。 美国科技龙头继续带头下跌。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> 跌2.66%、","listText":"聊聊今日份的交易想法，包括对于大盘走势后续的看法？看涨/看跌哪只股票、晒晒单等等。 港股市场 1月6日讯，隔夜美股下挫，港股主要指数低开，恒指跌0.28%，国指跌0.13%，恒生科技指数跌0.71%。 盘面上，科技股多数走低，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a> 涨2.6%，<a 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美股周三大幅收跌，美联储纪要显示联储认为必须加快加息步伐。道指跌幅1.07%，纳指跌3.34%，标普500指数跌1.94%。 美国科技龙头继续带头下跌。$苹果(AAPL)$ 跌2.66%、","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c771b2d4936918dba26a5d5bd7ebfd38","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/695697547","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2138,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699996215,"gmtCreate":1639732653812,"gmtModify":1639732653812,"author":{"id":"3554954497090648","authorId":"3554954497090648","name":"蓝宝石_4162","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01c9b10062d07ab87485588a125c5d30","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554954497090648","authorIdStr":"3554954497090648"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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