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- DS1818DS1818
  ·2021-06-14
  $tsla up up
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- DS1818DS1818
  ·2021-04-09
  [财迷]
  TSMC Quarterly Sales Rise 17% After Surge in Chip Demand
  -- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. reported a third straight quarter of record sales, underscoring its lead as the world’s No. 1 maker of the advanced chips that are currently in short supply.Taiwan’s largest company said first-quarter revenue climbed 17% to NT$362.4 billion , compared with the average NT$360.5 billion of analysts estimates.TSMC manufactures chips that go into most pieces of modern electronics, from Apple Inc.’s iPhones to smart televisions and connected cars, making it
  TSMC Quarterly Sales Rise 17% After Surge in Chip Demand
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- DS1818DS1818
  ·2021-03-02
  $ARKW
  'Build Me An Ark': The Tsunami Of Risk Of Tesla-Bitcoin-Cathie Wood Is Coming
  Summary: In today's equity update we are following up on our analysis of the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark ri
  'Build Me An Ark': The Tsunami Of Risk Of Tesla-Bitcoin-Cathie Wood Is Coming
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up up","listText":"$tsla up up","text":"$tsla up up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182709289","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1171,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":348438885,"gmtCreate":1617949895847,"gmtModify":1634295566108,"author":{"id":"3555238247642714","authorId":"3555238247642714","name":"DS1818","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555238247642714","idStr":"3555238247642714"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/348438885","repostId":"2126088261","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2126088261","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617947776,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2126088261?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-09 13:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"TSMC Quarterly Sales Rise 17% After Surge in Chip Demand","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2126088261","media":"Bloomberg","summary":" -- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. reported a third straight quarter of record sales, underscoring its lead as the world’s No. 1 maker of the advanced chips that are currently in short supply.Taiwan’s largest company said first-quarter revenue climbed 17% to NT$362.4 billion , compared with the average NT$360.5 billion of analysts estimates.TSMC manufactures chips that go into most pieces of modern electronics, from Apple Inc.’s iPhones to smart televisions and connected cars, making it ","content":"<p>(Bloomberg) -- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. reported a third straight quarter of record sales, underscoring its lead as the world’s No. 1 maker of the advanced chips that are currently in short supply.</p><p>Taiwan’s largest company said first-quarter revenue climbed 17% to NT$362.4 billion ($12.7 billion), compared with the average NT$360.5 billion of analysts estimates.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff932fd26a5226212f148591c64bd2f9\" tg-width=\"1094\" tg-height=\"321\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>TSMC manufactures chips that go into most pieces of modern electronics, from Apple Inc.’s iPhones to smart televisions and connected cars, making it a linchpin of the global supply chain. With economies starting to emerge from the coronavirus pandemic, silicon demand has vastly outstripped supply in recent months, forcing automakers to idle plants for up to weeks at a time and fueling a shortage of popular consumer products like game consoles.</p><p>What Bloomberg Intelligence Says:</p><blockquote>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.’s 1Q sales may jump 18% year-over-year and exceed its NT$360 billion target amid automotive chip supply shortages and continued strength in chip orders for PCs and servers from customers such as <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>.-- Charles Shum and Simon Chan, analysts</blockquote><p>In response, TSMC has kept its fabs running at “over 100% utilization” over the past year, Chief Executive Officer C.C. Wei told clients in a letter recently. The company -- already planning capital spending of as much as $28 billion this year -- will invest $100 billion over the next three years to expand its capacity, he said.</p><p>“TSMC is investing aggressively to capture the structural and fundamental increase in underlying demand driven by long-term growth megatrends from 5G and high performance computing,” Citigroup analyst Roland Shu wrote in a note. The spending target implies TSMC’s revenue could reach as much as $95.1 billion in 2024 and the firm “is on the march to be the largest semiconductor company by revenue in 2024/2025,” he added.</p><p>Shares of TSMC have more than doubled over the past year. The stock slipped 0.5% on Friday, before the company reported sales figures. It’s scheduled to unveil first-quarter earnings next week.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534a07b72ee55335f4463e8d68a0af5e\" tg-width=\"933\" tg-height=\"398\"></p>","source":"yahoofinance","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>TSMC Quarterly Sales Rise 17% After Surge in Chip Demand</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTSMC Quarterly Sales Rise 17% After Surge in Chip Demand\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-09 13:56 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tsmc-quarterly-sales-rise-17-053616897.html><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. reported a third straight quarter of record sales, underscoring its lead as the world’s No. 1 maker of the advanced chips that are currently in ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tsmc-quarterly-sales-rise-17-053616897.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tsmc-quarterly-sales-rise-17-053616897.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5f26f4a48f9cb3e29be4d71d3ba8c038","article_id":"2126088261","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. reported a third straight quarter of record sales, underscoring its lead as the world’s No. 1 maker of the advanced chips that are currently in short supply.Taiwan’s largest company said first-quarter revenue climbed 17% to NT$362.4 billion ($12.7 billion), compared with the average NT$360.5 billion of analysts estimates.TSMC manufactures chips that go into most pieces of modern electronics, from Apple Inc.’s iPhones to smart televisions and connected cars, making it a linchpin of the global supply chain. With economies starting to emerge from the coronavirus pandemic, silicon demand has vastly outstripped supply in recent months, forcing automakers to idle plants for up to weeks at a time and fueling a shortage of popular consumer products like game consoles.What Bloomberg Intelligence Says:Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.’s 1Q sales may jump 18% year-over-year and exceed its NT$360 billion target amid automotive chip supply shortages and continued strength in chip orders for PCs and servers from customers such as AMD.-- Charles Shum and Simon Chan, analystsIn response, TSMC has kept its fabs running at “over 100% utilization” over the past year, Chief Executive Officer C.C. Wei told clients in a letter recently. The company -- already planning capital spending of as much as $28 billion this year -- will invest $100 billion over the next three years to expand its capacity, he said.“TSMC is investing aggressively to capture the structural and fundamental increase in underlying demand driven by long-term growth megatrends from 5G and high performance computing,” Citigroup analyst Roland Shu wrote in a note. The spending target implies TSMC’s revenue could reach as much as $95.1 billion in 2024 and the firm “is on the march to be the largest semiconductor company by revenue in 2024/2025,” he added.Shares of TSMC have more than doubled over the past year. The stock slipped 0.5% on Friday, before the company reported sales figures. It’s scheduled to unveil first-quarter earnings next week.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9,"AMD":0.6,"C":0.9,"TSM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":902,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":362604010,"gmtCreate":1614616458930,"gmtModify":1703479008205,"author":{"id":"3555238247642714","authorId":"3555238247642714","name":"DS1818","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555238247642714","idStr":"3555238247642714"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$ARKW","listText":"$ARKW","text":"$ARKW","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/362604010","repostId":"1105841550","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105841550","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614600153,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1105841550?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-01 20:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"'Build Me An Ark': The Tsunami Of Risk Of Tesla-Bitcoin-Cathie Wood Is Coming","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105841550","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Summary:\n\n In today's equity update we are following up on our\n analysis of the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark ri","content":"<p><u><b>Summary:</b></u></p>\n<blockquote>\n In today's equity update we are following up on our\n <b>analysis of the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk cluster</b>showing an updated positions analysis, cross-correlations in the flagship Ark Innovation ETF, and an drawdown analysis. Yesterday, was another bad session for this risk cluster and Ark Invest had a day with outflows across all their ETFs highlighting that risk sentiment has changed. With the founder's bold move to increase the position in Tesla during the week the risk has gone up that this risk cluster could turn into an ugly forced selling dynamic causing pain in not only Tesla, Bitcoin, and Ark funds, but also US biotechnology stocks where Ark Invest is a major holder with high ownership in selected names.\n</blockquote>\n<p>A little over a month ago we first flagged the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk cluster as something to take note off as short-term correlation between Tesla and Bitcoin was shooting up. A survey from Charles Schwab also confirmed our suspicion that there is a big overlap as these two instruments are among the top five holdings by millennials. Our analysis quickly led us to Ark Invest with its famous Ark Innovation ETF which had a big position in Tesla and its charismatic founder Cathie Wood is a big believer in the so-called disruptive innovation culture of Silicon Valley. This class of people believe firmly in technology as mainly good for society in all its aspects and that&nbsp;Bitcoin is a protection against future wealth confiscation&nbsp;which is most likely inevitable due to historically high wealth inequality.</p>\n<p>This disruptive innovation culture is powerful. It is presented by some of the wealthiest people of this planet. Endless presentation about innovation and institutions like the Singularity University promote these views. Behind Bitcoin you find a huge online marketing machine sucking ordinary people into the game. Recently wealthy people such as Elon Musk has openly supported Bitcoin, first in writing and later in action adding $1.5bn to Tesla’s balance sheet and thereby significantly increasing its earnings volatility. The triangle of Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark and their respective momentum has reinforced each other creating a positive feedback loop luring more investors into these instruments. As we have seen this week the ‘tower of risk’ is beginning to show cracks.</p>\n<p><b>Ark position update and Cathie Wood’s bold move and the risk to biotechnology</b></p>\n<p>This week Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark all came under pressure from negative voices in governments over Bitcoin and beginning noise over real competition for Tesla in the coming years. The risk cluster was clearly moving together, and correlations started rising. On Tuesday, volatility picked up across the board and at one point Cathie Wood felt it was necessary to go public supporting her funds and said that&nbsp;she had increased their position in Tesla&nbsp;using big numbers in the future to justify increasing the risk. This is a bold move, but it increases the risk considerably. When you are at risk of seeing sizeable outflows, you should start reducing the most illiquid positions first while you can control the situation. Because if you are forced to do it by redemptions the game changes dramatically.</p>\n<p>The tables below show updated Ark Invest positions as of yesterday’s close. There are still 26 stocks where Ark Invest holds more than 10% of the outstanding shares. This could become a serious problem if Ark Invest is suddenly caught in a negative feedback loop together with Tesla and Bitcoin. But also note how US biotechnology stocks are overrepresented in this list of stocks with high ownership in percentage of outstanding shares. If Ark Invest suddenly experience across the board outflows, like it did yesterday, then they can suddenly be the forced seller in US biotechnology stocks where they are the whale. This could cascade into the overall US biotechnology segment although the group is diverse.</p>\n<p><i>Stocks held by Ark Invest funds with combined ownership above 10% of outstanding shares</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97684f80243d32efc06f3379d51d4fb\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"353\">Source: Ark Invest, Bloomberg, and Saxo Group</p>\n<p>The table below shows the largest positions across all funds. Here Tesla has now jumped to 7% of AUM and the first five positions now account for 21.6% of AUM. The five biggest stocks are Tesla, Teladoc Health, Square, Roku, and Baidu. Square just recently reported disappointing Q4 earnings and announced the purchase of $170mn of Bitcoin increasing the risk and feedback loop further in this risk cluster. In the Ark Innovation ETF itself, Tesla is now 10.2% of assets and together with Roku (6%) and Square (5.4%) these three stocks represent 21.6% of assets. If you look at the 10 largest positions in the Ark Innovation ETF then the red thread is that they all come with very high equity valuations and thus low implied equity risk premiums. They are all also mostly equity financed, except for Tesla, which means that the WACC, cost of capital, predominantly come from the cost of equity. With low implied equity risk premiums, the risk-free rate dominates much more than for a company such as say Microsoft or Apple. This means that the rising interest rates could suddenly cause a huge shift in equity valuations. Not because the future is different but because the cost of capital has changed.</p>\n<p><i>Top positions in terms of Ark Invest AUM across all funds</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e06fcb66d5a52e629b48c9cab492586\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"302\">Source: Ark Invest, Bloomberg, and Saxo Group</p>\n<p><u><b>Correlations on the rise and drawdown outlier</b></u></p>\n<p>The best sign of risk going haywire is always fast rising cross-correlations whether it is on asset classes or single stocks. The chart below shows the 10-day moving cross-correlation in the Ark Innovation ETF since early 2020. It has recently moved to around 0.6 and while it is not a new record the direction is up and has been fast coming from only 0.2 from a few weeks ago. The next week will be critical for the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk cluster as negative feedback loops can be violent and very unpredictable in their outcome.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab96aaafda10c2371b1d3a1a14c4a48a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"280\"><i>Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group</i></p>\n<p>Another way of looking at risk is by plotting Ark Innovation ETF drawdowns against that of Nasdaq 100 since December 2015.<b>The ETF has typically experienced a drawdown that is 1.22 times larger than that of Nasdaq 100</b>. As of yesterday, the ratio stands at 2.44 and thus illustrates that something idiosyncratic is taking place at Ark Innovation ETF.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80db26e42e2910071718ff22a1ff3f2b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"308\"><b>If outflows continue today and Tesla comes under pressure again then this indicator could very well hit a new record in terms of being an outlier signaling a negative feedback loop on risk has started.</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>'Build Me An Ark': The Tsunami Of Risk Of Tesla-Bitcoin-Cathie Wood Is Coming</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n'Build Me An Ark': The Tsunami Of Risk Of Tesla-Bitcoin-Cathie Wood Is Coming\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-01 20:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/build-me-ark-tsunami-risk-tesla-bitcoin-cathie-wood-coming><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary:\n\n In today's equity update we are following up on our\n analysis of the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk clustershowing an updated positions analysis, cross-correlations in the flagship Ark Innovation ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/build-me-ark-tsunami-risk-tesla-bitcoin-cathie-wood-coming\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/build-me-ark-tsunami-risk-tesla-bitcoin-cathie-wood-coming","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105841550","content_text":"Summary:\n\n In today's equity update we are following up on our\n analysis of the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk clustershowing an updated positions analysis, cross-correlations in the flagship Ark Innovation ETF, and an drawdown analysis. Yesterday, was another bad session for this risk cluster and Ark Invest had a day with outflows across all their ETFs highlighting that risk sentiment has changed. With the founder's bold move to increase the position in Tesla during the week the risk has gone up that this risk cluster could turn into an ugly forced selling dynamic causing pain in not only Tesla, Bitcoin, and Ark funds, but also US biotechnology stocks where Ark Invest is a major holder with high ownership in selected names.\n\nA little over a month ago we first flagged the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk cluster as something to take note off as short-term correlation between Tesla and Bitcoin was shooting up. A survey from Charles Schwab also confirmed our suspicion that there is a big overlap as these two instruments are among the top five holdings by millennials. Our analysis quickly led us to Ark Invest with its famous Ark Innovation ETF which had a big position in Tesla and its charismatic founder Cathie Wood is a big believer in the so-called disruptive innovation culture of Silicon Valley. This class of people believe firmly in technology as mainly good for society in all its aspects and that Bitcoin is a protection against future wealth confiscation which is most likely inevitable due to historically high wealth inequality.\nThis disruptive innovation culture is powerful. It is presented by some of the wealthiest people of this planet. Endless presentation about innovation and institutions like the Singularity University promote these views. Behind Bitcoin you find a huge online marketing machine sucking ordinary people into the game. Recently wealthy people such as Elon Musk has openly supported Bitcoin, first in writing and later in action adding $1.5bn to Tesla’s balance sheet and thereby significantly increasing its earnings volatility. The triangle of Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark and their respective momentum has reinforced each other creating a positive feedback loop luring more investors into these instruments. As we have seen this week the ‘tower of risk’ is beginning to show cracks.\nArk position update and Cathie Wood’s bold move and the risk to biotechnology\nThis week Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark all came under pressure from negative voices in governments over Bitcoin and beginning noise over real competition for Tesla in the coming years. The risk cluster was clearly moving together, and correlations started rising. On Tuesday, volatility picked up across the board and at one point Cathie Wood felt it was necessary to go public supporting her funds and said that she had increased their position in Tesla using big numbers in the future to justify increasing the risk. This is a bold move, but it increases the risk considerably. When you are at risk of seeing sizeable outflows, you should start reducing the most illiquid positions first while you can control the situation. Because if you are forced to do it by redemptions the game changes dramatically.\nThe tables below show updated Ark Invest positions as of yesterday’s close. There are still 26 stocks where Ark Invest holds more than 10% of the outstanding shares. This could become a serious problem if Ark Invest is suddenly caught in a negative feedback loop together with Tesla and Bitcoin. But also note how US biotechnology stocks are overrepresented in this list of stocks with high ownership in percentage of outstanding shares. If Ark Invest suddenly experience across the board outflows, like it did yesterday, then they can suddenly be the forced seller in US biotechnology stocks where they are the whale. This could cascade into the overall US biotechnology segment although the group is diverse.\nStocks held by Ark Invest funds with combined ownership above 10% of outstanding shares\nSource: Ark Invest, Bloomberg, and Saxo Group\nThe table below shows the largest positions across all funds. Here Tesla has now jumped to 7% of AUM and the first five positions now account for 21.6% of AUM. The five biggest stocks are Tesla, Teladoc Health, Square, Roku, and Baidu. Square just recently reported disappointing Q4 earnings and announced the purchase of $170mn of Bitcoin increasing the risk and feedback loop further in this risk cluster. In the Ark Innovation ETF itself, Tesla is now 10.2% of assets and together with Roku (6%) and Square (5.4%) these three stocks represent 21.6% of assets. If you look at the 10 largest positions in the Ark Innovation ETF then the red thread is that they all come with very high equity valuations and thus low implied equity risk premiums. They are all also mostly equity financed, except for Tesla, which means that the WACC, cost of capital, predominantly come from the cost of equity. With low implied equity risk premiums, the risk-free rate dominates much more than for a company such as say Microsoft or Apple. This means that the rising interest rates could suddenly cause a huge shift in equity valuations. Not because the future is different but because the cost of capital has changed.\nTop positions in terms of Ark Invest AUM across all funds\nSource: Ark Invest, Bloomberg, and Saxo Group\nCorrelations on the rise and drawdown outlier\nThe best sign of risk going haywire is always fast rising cross-correlations whether it is on asset classes or single stocks. The chart below shows the 10-day moving cross-correlation in the Ark Innovation ETF since early 2020. It has recently moved to around 0.6 and while it is not a new record the direction is up and has been fast coming from only 0.2 from a few weeks ago. The next week will be critical for the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk cluster as negative feedback loops can be violent and very unpredictable in their outcome.\nSource: Bloomberg and Saxo Group\nAnother way of looking at risk is by plotting Ark Innovation ETF drawdowns against that of Nasdaq 100 since December 2015.The ETF has typically experienced a drawdown that is 1.22 times larger than that of Nasdaq 100. As of yesterday, the ratio stands at 2.44 and thus illustrates that something idiosyncratic is taking place at Ark Innovation ETF.\nIf outflows continue today and Tesla comes under pressure again then this indicator could very well hit a new record in terms of being an outlier signaling a negative feedback loop on risk has started.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ARKF":0.9,"ARKG":0.9,"ARKK":0.9,"ARKQ":0.9,"ARKR":0.9,"ARKW":0.9,"GBTC":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":746,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}