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starrys
starrys
·
2021-11-23
The hype is real
Rivian: 2021's Pets.com<blockquote>Rivian：2021年的Pets.com</blockquote>
Summary Rivian had a wildly successful IPO, after which it reached a $109 billion market cap. Howev
Rivian: 2021's Pets.com<blockquote>Rivian：2021年的Pets.com</blockquote>
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starrys
starrys
·
2021-10-09
Sas
非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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starrys
starrys
·
2021-09-30
Nice
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starrys
starrys
·
2021-09-29
Not interested
Boeing Stock and Commercial Aerospace Look Set to Gain From ‘Global Inflection’<blockquote>波音股票和商业航空航天似乎将从“全球拐点”中受益</blockquote>
An inflection is coming in demand for commercial aerospace. That’s great news, and a relief, for aer
Boeing Stock and Commercial Aerospace Look Set to Gain From ‘Global Inflection’<blockquote>波音股票和商业航空航天似乎将从“全球拐点”中受益</blockquote>
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starrys
starrys
·
2021-09-27
Stay longterm
Debt ceiling debates in Congress, consumer confidence: What to know this week<blockquote>国会债务上限辩论、消费者信心：本周需要了解什么</blockquote>
Investors this week are set to closely monitor developments in Washington, D.C., as lawmakers race t
Debt ceiling debates in Congress, consumer confidence: What to know this week<blockquote>国会债务上限辩论、消费者信心：本周需要了解什么</blockquote>
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starrys
starrys
·
2021-09-05
Niceee
Beat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs<blockquote>利用这个非常看好历史新高股票的量化系统击败市场</blockquote>
Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do
Beat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs<blockquote>利用这个非常看好历史新高股票的量化系统击败市场</blockquote>
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starrys
starrys
·
2021-08-27
Power la
Crypto stocks surged in morning trading<blockquote>加密货币股票早盘飙升</blockquote>
Crypto stocks surged in morning trading.Bit Digital,Marathon Digital,Riot Blockchain,SoS Ltd,Square,
Crypto stocks surged in morning trading<blockquote>加密货币股票早盘飙升</blockquote>
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starrys
starrys
·
2021-08-19
China treat investor badly 😭
Some China concepts stocks tumbled in morning trading<blockquote>部分中概股早盘暴跌</blockquote>
(Aug 19) Some China concepts stocks tumbled in morning trading. Chinese technology stocks sold off,
Some China concepts stocks tumbled in morning trading<blockquote>部分中概股早盘暴跌</blockquote>
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starrys
starrys
·
2021-08-12
Good
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starrys
starrys
·
2021-08-11
Ah
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hype is real","listText":"The hype is real","text":"The hype is real","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/875874636","repostId":"1144695405","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1144695405","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637637065,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1144695405?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-23 11:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Rivian: 2021's Pets.com<blockquote>Rivian：2021年的Pets.com</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144695405","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nRivian had a wildly successful IPO, after which it reached a $109 billion market cap.\nHowev","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Rivian had a wildly successful IPO, after which it reached a $109 billion market cap.</li> <li>However, the company has been hit by a string of bad reports, including Ford backing out of a partnership with it.</li> <li>Thanks to its high valuation, Rivian is beginning to look like Pets.com - the poster child for the 2000 dotcom crash.</li> <li>In this article, I will develop a bearish thesis on Rivian, arguing that its current price level is still excessive.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d065787049af8b17ea35806fbb51971\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Rivian的首次公开募股取得了巨大成功，之后市值达到了1090亿美元。</li><li>然而，该公司受到了一系列负面报道的打击，包括福特退出与其合作伙伴关系。</li><li>由于其高估值，Rivian开始看起来像Pets.com——2000年互联网泡沫破裂的典型代表。</li><li>在本文中，我将对Rivian提出看跌论点，认为其目前的价格水平仍然过高。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>迈克尔·M·圣地亚哥/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Rivian</b>(RIVN) shareholders got some bad news last week, when <b>Ford</b>(F) announced that it had scrapped its plans to launch a joint venture with the company. The news came shortly after a report claimed that Rivian’s electric vans built for <b>Amazon</b>(AMZN) had less range than advertised.</p><p><blockquote><b>Rivian</b>(RIVN)股东上周收到了一些坏消息，当时<b>福特</b>(F)宣布取消与该公司成立合资企业的计划。这一消息是在一份报告称Rivian的电动货车专为<b>亚马逊</b>（AMZN）的范围比宣传的要小。</blockquote></p><p> Following the announcement, Ford kept its 12% ownership stake in RIVN. But its actions cast doubt on any future collaboration. From this point on, Ford will simply be a company that owns RIVN stock. There will be no profitable collaboration going forward.</p><p><blockquote>公告发布后，福特保留了RIVN 12%的股权。但它的行为让人对未来的任何合作产生了怀疑。从现在开始，福特将只是一家拥有RIVN股票的公司。未来不会有有利可图的合作。</blockquote></p><p> With last week’s news, Amazon and Ford -- Rivian’s two biggest investors -- dealt the company a double whammy. Even before the Ford news dropped, investors were already selling Rivian. After a post-IPO rally, RIVN fell by 25%, going from $172 to $128.60. Reports that the company had no revenue may have contributed to the selloff, which hit a couple days after it was listed.</p><p><blockquote>随着上周的消息，Rivian最大的两个投资者Amazon和Ford给该公司带来了双重打击。甚至在福特消息下跌之前，投资者就已经在抛售Rivian了。在IPO后上涨后，RIVN下跌25%，从172美元跌至128.60美元。有关该公司没有收入的报道可能是导致上市几天后遭遇抛售的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> In many ways, Rivian has become the poster child of what some are calling a “new tech bubble.” With NASDAQ stocks reaching new highs seemingly daily, we’re beginning to see price action reminiscent of early 2000, when the NASDAQ reached a 175 P/E ratio. When that bubble finally burst, tech stocks fell 80%. It took the NASDAQ 15 years to recover.</p><p><blockquote>在许多方面，Rivian已经成为一些人所说的“新科技泡沫”的典型代表。随着纳斯达克股市似乎每天都创下新高，我们开始看到价格走势让人想起2000年初，当时纳斯达克的市盈率达到175。当泡沫最终破裂时，科技股下跌了80%。纳斯达克花了15年时间才恢复过来。</blockquote></p><p> The most notorious of all the 2000-era bubble stocks was Pets.com. Like Rivian, it attracted investment from large tech players like Amazon. IPET’s 1998 IPO raised $82.5 million, its stock debuting at $11. At the height of its power, it had a balloon fly in the Macy’s Day Parade. But thanks to an unprofitable business model, the company lost money at a rapid pace. It eventually went bankrupt and, by late 2000, was trading for $0.06 per share.</p><p><blockquote>2000年代所有泡沫股票中最臭名昭著的是Pets.com。与Rivian一样，它吸引了亚马逊等大型科技公司的投资。IPET 1998年首次公开募股筹集了8250万美元，其股价首次亮相时为11美元。在它最强大的时候，它在梅西节游行中放了一个气球。但由于商业模式无利可图，该公司迅速亏损。该公司最终破产，到2000年底，股价为每股0.06美元。</blockquote></p><p> While the NASDAQ is nowhere near 2000 levels of overvaluation, some individual stocks are getting there. We can find semi stocks,social media stocks, and even blue chip SaaS stocks above 20 times sales. EVs are the most inflated of them all, with even the most mature player in the space sporting a 23.5 price/sales ratio. There are some pricey names in this market, and some don’t even have sales -- let alone earnings!</p><p><blockquote>虽然纳斯达克远未接近2000年的高估水平，但一些个股正在接近这一水平。我们可以找到销售额超过20倍的semi股票、社交媒体股票，甚至蓝筹SaaS股票。电动汽车是其中最膨胀的，即使是该领域最成熟的参与者也拥有23.5的市销率。这个市场上有一些昂贵的名字，有些甚至没有销售额——更不用说盈利了！</blockquote></p><p> Rivian is a perfect case-in-point. Much like Pets.com, it has a lot of market cap but no profit. The company claimed in its prospectus that it had 48,390 pre-orders and had collected $1,000 on each one. If that’s the case then it brought in has $48.3 million in cash from those orders. The company won’t be able to recognize any of this as revenue until the vehicles are delivered. If we take the $48.3 million in cash as a kind of “sale” then Rivian has an astonishing 2,270 price/sales ratio. That’s mighty high, but these aren’t considered “sales” under U.S. GAAP. Instead, they represent a liability until the vehicles start being delivered. That is, until the revenue is “earned.”</p><p><blockquote>Rivian就是一个很好的例子。就像Pets.com一样，它有很大的市值，但没有利润。该公司在招股说明书中声称，它有48,390份预购订单，每份订单已收取1,000美元。如果是这样的话，那么它从这些订单中获得了4830万美元的现金。在车辆交付之前，该公司无法将其中任何一项确认为收入。如果我们将4830万美元现金视为一种“出售”，那么Rivian的市销率达到了惊人的2270。这个数字非常高，但根据美国公认会计准则，这些不被视为“销售额”。相反，在车辆开始交付之前，它们都是一种负债。也就是说，直到收入“赚到”为止。</blockquote></p><p> Put simply: Rivian has a stratospheric valuation, even if we’re being generous with it. Like Pets.com before it, it trades at a valuation not based on real world performance. Hype, comparisons to <b>Telsa</b>(TSLA) and general optimism toward EVs have driven the price -- not fundamentals. All the telltale signs of a bubble are there. Given this, it would be wise for investors to tread carefully with the stock, as it is beginning to look like the NASDAQ Bubble stocks that rose in the late 90s only to crash painfully in 2000.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之：Rivian的估值非常高，即使我们对它很慷慨。与之前的Pets.com一样，它的交易估值并非基于现实世界的表现。炒作，与<b>特尔萨</b>（特斯拉）和对电动汽车的普遍乐观情绪推动了价格上涨，而不是基本面。泡沫的所有迹象都在那里。有鉴于此，投资者谨慎对待该股是明智的，因为它开始看起来像90年代末上涨但在2000年痛苦崩溃的纳斯达克泡沫股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pets.com: Anatomy of a Bubble</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Pets.com：泡沫解剖</b></blockquote></p><p> It’s impossible to talk about the 2000 crash without mentioning Pets.com. The most infamous of the stocks that crashed in the dotcom bust, it was in many ways a microcosm of the NASDAQ in that period.</p><p><blockquote>谈论2000年的崩溃不可能不提到Pets.com。它是互联网泡沫破灭中最臭名昭著的股票，在很多方面都是那个时期纳斯达克的缩影。</blockquote></p><p> Early on, things looked bright for Pets.com. Amazon bought a large stake in the company in its first venture funding around. Later, a consortium of investors injected $10.5 million. The company ran a $1.2 million super bowl ad. Eventually, it became a household name. In February 2000, it went public for $11 per share, raising $82.5 million.</p><p><blockquote>早些时候，Pets.com的情况看起来很好。亚马逊在第一次风险投资中购买了该公司的大量股份。后来，一个投资者财团注入了1050万美元。该公司投放了价值120万美元的超级碗广告。最终，它成为一个家喻户晓的名字。2000年2月，它以每股11美元的价格上市，筹集了8250万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Things were going well.</p><p><blockquote>事情进展得很顺利。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But people started asking hard questions about IPET’s business model. It had trouble generating positive gross margins mailing out large bags of dog food. It sold below cost, attempting to gain market share. It spent $400 to acquire each new customer. Finally, it faced stiff competition from a number of companies, all of them offering the same basic thing. In November 2000, it went bankrupt and was delisted.</p><p><blockquote>但人们开始对IPET的商业模式提出尖锐的问题。它很难通过邮寄大袋狗粮来产生正的毛利率。它以低于成本的价格出售，试图获得市场份额。它花了400美元来获得每个新客户。最后，它面临着来自许多公司的激烈竞争，所有公司都提供相同的基本服务。2000年11月破产退市。</blockquote></p><p> IPET’s final annual report contained the following metrics:</p><p><blockquote>IPET的最终年度报告包含以下指标：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Cash: $4.6 million, down 52% from the prior year.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>现金：460万美元，比上年下降52%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Total assets: $4.7 million, down 62%</p><p><blockquote><li>总资产：470万美元，下降62%</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Total liabilities: $4.18 million, down 56%.</p><p><blockquote><li>总负债：418万美元，下降56%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Cash raised in liquidation: $438,000.</p><p><blockquote><li>清算中筹集的现金：43.8万美元。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Cash spent in liquidation: $6.3 million.</p><p><blockquote><li>清算花费的现金：630万美元。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> No revenue or earnings were reported, because the company was not doing business by the time the report was released. Instead, it was a liquidation company, focused on paying off investors.</p><p><blockquote>没有报告收入或收益，因为报告发布时该公司尚未开展业务。相反，它是一家清算公司，专注于偿还投资者。</blockquote></p><p> It’s hard not to see the similarities to Rivian here. We’ve got the early investment by Amazon, the sensational IPO, the lack of profits, and the post-IPO selloff. One factor that’s missing in Rivian’s case is a truly broken business model. There doesn’t appear to be anything RIVN is doing that will make profits impossible. But the company has a long road to drive before it has any real value. In the meantime, investors are left reading vague tea leaves about pre-orders and van range.</p><p><blockquote>在这里很难看不到与Rivian的相似之处。我们经历了亚马逊的早期投资、轰动一时的IPO、缺乏利润以及IPO后的抛售。Rivian的案例中缺少的一个因素是真正破碎的商业模式。RIVN似乎没有做任何让利润变得不可能的事情。但该公司在拥有任何真正价值之前还有很长的路要走。与此同时，投资者只能阅读有关预购和货车范围的模糊信息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Competitive Landscape</b></p><p><blockquote><b>竞争格局</b></blockquote></p><p> One way to approach Rivian’s value is to look at the marketplace it’s operating in. The electric vehicle industry is a competitive one with a clear market leader:</p><p><blockquote>了解Rivian价值的一种方法是查看其运营所在的市场。电动汽车行业竞争激烈，有明确的市场领导者：</blockquote></p><p> <i>Tesla.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>特斯拉.</i></blockquote></p><p> TSLA dominates the EV industry on both market cap and revenue, although its market cap dominance is much stronger than its sales lead. Other companies are catching up to Tesla on deliveries. One of those is <b>Volkswagen</b>(OTCPK:VWAGY). In the third quarter, it delivered 122,100 all-electric vehicles. According to Statista, it has a 12.5% market share in EVs globally -- right behind Tesla. It’s a steep drop-off after Volkswagen, though. And there’s more than a dozen players in the space.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉在市值和收入方面都主导着电动汽车行业，尽管其市值主导地位远强于其销量领先地位。其他公司在交付方面正在追赶特斯拉。其中之一是<b>大众汽车</b>（OTCPK：VWAGY）。第三季度，其交付了12.21万辆全电动汽车。根据Statista的数据，它在全球电动汽车领域拥有12.5%的市场份额，仅次于特斯拉。不过，在大众汽车之后，这一数字急剧下降。这个空间里有十几个玩家。</blockquote></p><p> Rivian’s market share in EVs is impossible to calculate because we don’t know how many vehicles it will sell. If the 48,000 pre-orders plus the 100,000 cars ordered by Amazon eventually materialize, then that’s 148,000 future deliveries. However, these deliveries can’t be counted to a specific quarter or year. The Amazon vans are going to be delivered over four years and the pre-orders may fall through. So we can’t compare Rivian’s 148,000 in potential sales to Tesla’s 237,000 in Q3, or Volkswagen’s 122,000. The timeframes don’t line up.</p><p><blockquote>Rivian在电动汽车领域的市场份额无法计算，因为我们不知道它将销售多少辆汽车。如果48,000份预购订单加上亚马逊订购的100,000辆汽车最终实现，那么未来的交付量将达到148,000辆。然而，这些交付量不能计入特定的季度或年份。亚马逊货车将在四年内交付，预购可能会失败。因此，我们无法将Rivian第三季度的148,000辆潜在销量与特斯拉的237,000辆或大众的122,000辆进行比较。时间框架不一致。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, we know that Rivian’s share is likely to be fairly small. If the Amazon deal runs to the end of 2024 then that’s 25,000 deliveries per year, or 6,250 per quarter. That’s assuming deliveries begin in 2021, which TechCrunch says is the case. The 48,000 pre-orders will presumably be delivered over the course of a single year, since most car buyers order the current year’s model. So let’s say 25,000 per year to Amazon and some year -- perhaps 2022 -- when 48,000 get sent out to customers within 12 months. That gets us to 73,000 in a year, or 24,333 per quarter. Nowhere near where Tesla and VW are. And we don’t even know whether the 48,000 pre-orders will come through!</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我们知道Rivian的份额可能相当小。如果亚马逊的交易持续到2024年底，那么每年的交付量为25,000次，即每季度6,250次。这是假设交付将于2021年开始，TechCrunch称情况确实如此。由于大多数购车者订购的是当年的车型，48,000份预购订单可能会在一年内交付。因此，假设每年向亚马逊发送25,000份，有一年——也许是2022年——将在12个月内向客户发送48,000份。这使我们一年达到73,000人，即每季度24,333人。与特斯拉和大众相差甚远。而且我们甚至不知道48000的预购会不会通过！</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Another set of items we can look at to gauge Rivian’s value is its multiples. Broadly, it doesn’t have any. But we can come up with a kind of hypothetical price/sales ratio based on a future scenario.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以衡量Rivian价值的另一组项目是它的倍数。总的来说，它没有任何。但我们可以根据未来的情景得出一种假设的市销率。</blockquote></p><p> If you treat Rivian’s $1,000 pre-order deposits as “sales” then you get to about $48 million in sales. That would produce a price/sales ratio of 2,270, although these deposits aren’t considered revenue based on U.S. GAAP. We could also throw in some indeterminate amount there for the Amazon order, but there is no confirmation that has begun generating revenue.</p><p><blockquote>如果你将Rivian 1000美元的预购定金视为“销售额”，那么你的销售额约为4800万美元。这将产生2,270的市销率，尽管根据美国公认会计准则，这些存款不被视为收入。我们还可以为亚马逊订单投入一些不确定的金额，但没有确认已经开始产生收入。</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps a better multiple would be using future revenue. Rivian trucks start at $69,000. We know there are 48,000 consumer pre-orders, and 100,000 Amazon orders over four years (25,000 per year on average). That could give us a future year with 73,000 sales. If they average to $69,000 per vehicle, then we get to $5.037 billion in revenue. That, with Friday’s market cap of $109 billion, gives us a 22 forward price/sales ratio. That’s not completely insane, but keep in mind we have assumed here that:</p><p><blockquote>也许更好的倍数是使用未来的收入。Rivian卡车起价69,000美元。我们知道有48,000个消费者预购，四年内有100,000个亚马逊订单（平均每年25,000个）。这可能会使我们未来一年的销量达到73,000辆。如果平均每辆车69,000美元，那么我们的收入将达到50.37亿美元。周五的市值为1090亿美元，我们的远期市销率为22。这并不完全疯狂，但请记住，我们在这里假设：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>The 48,000 pre-orders will come through.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>48,000份预购订单将会完成。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>They’ll all be delivered in 2022.</p><p><blockquote><li>它们都将在2022年交付。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Amazon won’t back out of its order even after the scandalous range report.</p><p><blockquote><li>即使在丑闻范围报告之后，亚马逊也不会退出订单。</li></blockquote></p><p></p><p></li> </ul> That’s a lot of assumptions to make. Quite likely, at least one of the moving pieces in this puzzle won’t fit. So what we have got here is a “best case scenario” price/sales ratio where all of the sales Rivian has announced, actually close. And in 2022 no less! I’m attempting to be as charitable with my projection as possible, yet the multiple still ends up being very high.</p><p><blockquote>这需要做很多假设。很有可能，这个拼图中至少有一个移动的部分不合适。因此，我们在这里得到的是一个“最佳情况”的市销率，Rivian宣布的所有销售额实际上都很接近。2022年也不少！我试图尽可能地仁慈地对待我的预测，然而倍数最终仍然非常高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> The bottom line on Rivian is this:</p><p><blockquote>Rivian的底线是：</blockquote></p><p> If any company in 2021 could be another Pets.com, Rivian is it.</p><p><blockquote>如果说2021年有哪家公司可以成为另一家Pets.com，那就是Rivian。</blockquote></p><p> It has no GAAP-recognizable sales. Its IPO went bust after reaching an unbelievable valuation. It is surrounded by hype but has little to back it up.</p><p><blockquote>它没有公认会计准则认可的销售额。它的IPO在达到令人难以置信的估值后破产了。它被炒作所包围，但几乎没有什么支持。</blockquote></p><p> Put simply, it is a product of its time, a hyped up stock in an era where hype has become the norm.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，它是那个时代的产物，是一只在炒作已成为常态的时代被炒作的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Does that mean that Rivian stock is guaranteed to go down? Hardly. Just like there are risks to RIVN longs, there are risks to its shorts as well. Continued social media hype, an unexpected jump in deliveries, or Amazon coming through with its order, are all scenarios that make RIVN a very risky play for shorts.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着Rivian股票肯定会下跌？几乎不。正如RIVN多头存在风险一样，其空头也存在风险。社交媒体的持续炒作、交付量的意外增长，或者亚马逊完成订单，所有这些情况都使RIVN成为空头风险非常大的游戏。</blockquote></p><p> But just like Pets.com before it, RIVN looks unlikely to live up to the promise of its IPO. For that reason, I will pass on the stock.</p><p><blockquote>但就像之前的Pets.com一样，RIVN看起来不太可能兑现其IPO的承诺。出于这个原因，我将传递股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rivian: 2021's Pets.com<blockquote>Rivian：2021年的Pets.com</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRivian: 2021's Pets.com<blockquote>Rivian：2021年的Pets.com</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-23 11:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Rivian had a wildly successful IPO, after which it reached a $109 billion market cap.</li> <li>However, the company has been hit by a string of bad reports, including Ford backing out of a partnership with it.</li> <li>Thanks to its high valuation, Rivian is beginning to look like Pets.com - the poster child for the 2000 dotcom crash.</li> <li>In this article, I will develop a bearish thesis on Rivian, arguing that its current price level is still excessive.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d065787049af8b17ea35806fbb51971\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Rivian的首次公开募股取得了巨大成功，之后市值达到了1090亿美元。</li><li>然而，该公司受到了一系列负面报道的打击，包括福特退出与其合作伙伴关系。</li><li>由于其高估值，Rivian开始看起来像Pets.com——2000年互联网泡沫破裂的典型代表。</li><li>在本文中，我将对Rivian提出看跌论点，认为其目前的价格水平仍然过高。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>迈克尔·M·圣地亚哥/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Rivian</b>(RIVN) shareholders got some bad news last week, when <b>Ford</b>(F) announced that it had scrapped its plans to launch a joint venture with the company. The news came shortly after a report claimed that Rivian’s electric vans built for <b>Amazon</b>(AMZN) had less range than advertised.</p><p><blockquote><b>Rivian</b>(RIVN)股东上周收到了一些坏消息，当时<b>福特</b>(F)宣布取消与该公司成立合资企业的计划。这一消息是在一份报告称Rivian的电动货车专为<b>亚马逊</b>（AMZN）的范围比宣传的要小。</blockquote></p><p> Following the announcement, Ford kept its 12% ownership stake in RIVN. But its actions cast doubt on any future collaboration. From this point on, Ford will simply be a company that owns RIVN stock. There will be no profitable collaboration going forward.</p><p><blockquote>公告发布后，福特保留了RIVN 12%的股权。但它的行为让人对未来的任何合作产生了怀疑。从现在开始，福特将只是一家拥有RIVN股票的公司。未来不会有有利可图的合作。</blockquote></p><p> With last week’s news, Amazon and Ford -- Rivian’s two biggest investors -- dealt the company a double whammy. Even before the Ford news dropped, investors were already selling Rivian. After a post-IPO rally, RIVN fell by 25%, going from $172 to $128.60. Reports that the company had no revenue may have contributed to the selloff, which hit a couple days after it was listed.</p><p><blockquote>随着上周的消息，Rivian最大的两个投资者Amazon和Ford给该公司带来了双重打击。甚至在福特消息下跌之前，投资者就已经在抛售Rivian了。在IPO后上涨后，RIVN下跌25%，从172美元跌至128.60美元。有关该公司没有收入的报道可能是导致上市几天后遭遇抛售的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> In many ways, Rivian has become the poster child of what some are calling a “new tech bubble.” With NASDAQ stocks reaching new highs seemingly daily, we’re beginning to see price action reminiscent of early 2000, when the NASDAQ reached a 175 P/E ratio. When that bubble finally burst, tech stocks fell 80%. It took the NASDAQ 15 years to recover.</p><p><blockquote>在许多方面，Rivian已经成为一些人所说的“新科技泡沫”的典型代表。随着纳斯达克股市似乎每天都创下新高，我们开始看到价格走势让人想起2000年初，当时纳斯达克的市盈率达到175。当泡沫最终破裂时，科技股下跌了80%。纳斯达克花了15年时间才恢复过来。</blockquote></p><p> The most notorious of all the 2000-era bubble stocks was Pets.com. Like Rivian, it attracted investment from large tech players like Amazon. IPET’s 1998 IPO raised $82.5 million, its stock debuting at $11. At the height of its power, it had a balloon fly in the Macy’s Day Parade. But thanks to an unprofitable business model, the company lost money at a rapid pace. It eventually went bankrupt and, by late 2000, was trading for $0.06 per share.</p><p><blockquote>2000年代所有泡沫股票中最臭名昭著的是Pets.com。与Rivian一样，它吸引了亚马逊等大型科技公司的投资。IPET 1998年首次公开募股筹集了8250万美元，其股价首次亮相时为11美元。在它最强大的时候，它在梅西节游行中放了一个气球。但由于商业模式无利可图，该公司迅速亏损。该公司最终破产，到2000年底，股价为每股0.06美元。</blockquote></p><p> While the NASDAQ is nowhere near 2000 levels of overvaluation, some individual stocks are getting there. We can find semi stocks,social media stocks, and even blue chip SaaS stocks above 20 times sales. EVs are the most inflated of them all, with even the most mature player in the space sporting a 23.5 price/sales ratio. There are some pricey names in this market, and some don’t even have sales -- let alone earnings!</p><p><blockquote>虽然纳斯达克远未接近2000年的高估水平，但一些个股正在接近这一水平。我们可以找到销售额超过20倍的semi股票、社交媒体股票，甚至蓝筹SaaS股票。电动汽车是其中最膨胀的，即使是该领域最成熟的参与者也拥有23.5的市销率。这个市场上有一些昂贵的名字，有些甚至没有销售额——更不用说盈利了！</blockquote></p><p> Rivian is a perfect case-in-point. Much like Pets.com, it has a lot of market cap but no profit. The company claimed in its prospectus that it had 48,390 pre-orders and had collected $1,000 on each one. If that’s the case then it brought in has $48.3 million in cash from those orders. The company won’t be able to recognize any of this as revenue until the vehicles are delivered. If we take the $48.3 million in cash as a kind of “sale” then Rivian has an astonishing 2,270 price/sales ratio. That’s mighty high, but these aren’t considered “sales” under U.S. GAAP. Instead, they represent a liability until the vehicles start being delivered. That is, until the revenue is “earned.”</p><p><blockquote>Rivian就是一个很好的例子。就像Pets.com一样，它有很大的市值，但没有利润。该公司在招股说明书中声称，它有48,390份预购订单，每份订单已收取1,000美元。如果是这样的话，那么它从这些订单中获得了4830万美元的现金。在车辆交付之前，该公司无法将其中任何一项确认为收入。如果我们将4830万美元现金视为一种“出售”，那么Rivian的市销率达到了惊人的2270。这个数字非常高，但根据美国公认会计准则，这些不被视为“销售额”。相反，在车辆开始交付之前，它们都是一种负债。也就是说，直到收入“赚到”为止。</blockquote></p><p> Put simply: Rivian has a stratospheric valuation, even if we’re being generous with it. Like Pets.com before it, it trades at a valuation not based on real world performance. Hype, comparisons to <b>Telsa</b>(TSLA) and general optimism toward EVs have driven the price -- not fundamentals. All the telltale signs of a bubble are there. Given this, it would be wise for investors to tread carefully with the stock, as it is beginning to look like the NASDAQ Bubble stocks that rose in the late 90s only to crash painfully in 2000.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之：Rivian的估值非常高，即使我们对它很慷慨。与之前的Pets.com一样，它的交易估值并非基于现实世界的表现。炒作，与<b>特尔萨</b>（特斯拉）和对电动汽车的普遍乐观情绪推动了价格上涨，而不是基本面。泡沫的所有迹象都在那里。有鉴于此，投资者谨慎对待该股是明智的，因为它开始看起来像90年代末上涨但在2000年痛苦崩溃的纳斯达克泡沫股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pets.com: Anatomy of a Bubble</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Pets.com：泡沫解剖</b></blockquote></p><p> It’s impossible to talk about the 2000 crash without mentioning Pets.com. The most infamous of the stocks that crashed in the dotcom bust, it was in many ways a microcosm of the NASDAQ in that period.</p><p><blockquote>谈论2000年的崩溃不可能不提到Pets.com。它是互联网泡沫破灭中最臭名昭著的股票，在很多方面都是那个时期纳斯达克的缩影。</blockquote></p><p> Early on, things looked bright for Pets.com. Amazon bought a large stake in the company in its first venture funding around. Later, a consortium of investors injected $10.5 million. The company ran a $1.2 million super bowl ad. Eventually, it became a household name. In February 2000, it went public for $11 per share, raising $82.5 million.</p><p><blockquote>早些时候，Pets.com的情况看起来很好。亚马逊在第一次风险投资中购买了该公司的大量股份。后来，一个投资者财团注入了1050万美元。该公司投放了价值120万美元的超级碗广告。最终，它成为一个家喻户晓的名字。2000年2月，它以每股11美元的价格上市，筹集了8250万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Things were going well.</p><p><blockquote>事情进展得很顺利。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But people started asking hard questions about IPET’s business model. It had trouble generating positive gross margins mailing out large bags of dog food. It sold below cost, attempting to gain market share. It spent $400 to acquire each new customer. Finally, it faced stiff competition from a number of companies, all of them offering the same basic thing. In November 2000, it went bankrupt and was delisted.</p><p><blockquote>但人们开始对IPET的商业模式提出尖锐的问题。它很难通过邮寄大袋狗粮来产生正的毛利率。它以低于成本的价格出售，试图获得市场份额。它花了400美元来获得每个新客户。最后，它面临着来自许多公司的激烈竞争，所有公司都提供相同的基本服务。2000年11月破产退市。</blockquote></p><p> IPET’s final annual report contained the following metrics:</p><p><blockquote>IPET的最终年度报告包含以下指标：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Cash: $4.6 million, down 52% from the prior year.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>现金：460万美元，比上年下降52%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Total assets: $4.7 million, down 62%</p><p><blockquote><li>总资产：470万美元，下降62%</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Total liabilities: $4.18 million, down 56%.</p><p><blockquote><li>总负债：418万美元，下降56%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Cash raised in liquidation: $438,000.</p><p><blockquote><li>清算中筹集的现金：43.8万美元。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Cash spent in liquidation: $6.3 million.</p><p><blockquote><li>清算花费的现金：630万美元。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> No revenue or earnings were reported, because the company was not doing business by the time the report was released. Instead, it was a liquidation company, focused on paying off investors.</p><p><blockquote>没有报告收入或收益，因为报告发布时该公司尚未开展业务。相反，它是一家清算公司，专注于偿还投资者。</blockquote></p><p> It’s hard not to see the similarities to Rivian here. We’ve got the early investment by Amazon, the sensational IPO, the lack of profits, and the post-IPO selloff. One factor that’s missing in Rivian’s case is a truly broken business model. There doesn’t appear to be anything RIVN is doing that will make profits impossible. But the company has a long road to drive before it has any real value. In the meantime, investors are left reading vague tea leaves about pre-orders and van range.</p><p><blockquote>在这里很难看不到与Rivian的相似之处。我们经历了亚马逊的早期投资、轰动一时的IPO、缺乏利润以及IPO后的抛售。Rivian的案例中缺少的一个因素是真正破碎的商业模式。RIVN似乎没有做任何让利润变得不可能的事情。但该公司在拥有任何真正价值之前还有很长的路要走。与此同时，投资者只能阅读有关预购和货车范围的模糊信息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Competitive Landscape</b></p><p><blockquote><b>竞争格局</b></blockquote></p><p> One way to approach Rivian’s value is to look at the marketplace it’s operating in. The electric vehicle industry is a competitive one with a clear market leader:</p><p><blockquote>了解Rivian价值的一种方法是查看其运营所在的市场。电动汽车行业竞争激烈，有明确的市场领导者：</blockquote></p><p> <i>Tesla.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>特斯拉.</i></blockquote></p><p> TSLA dominates the EV industry on both market cap and revenue, although its market cap dominance is much stronger than its sales lead. Other companies are catching up to Tesla on deliveries. One of those is <b>Volkswagen</b>(OTCPK:VWAGY). In the third quarter, it delivered 122,100 all-electric vehicles. According to Statista, it has a 12.5% market share in EVs globally -- right behind Tesla. It’s a steep drop-off after Volkswagen, though. And there’s more than a dozen players in the space.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉在市值和收入方面都主导着电动汽车行业，尽管其市值主导地位远强于其销量领先地位。其他公司在交付方面正在追赶特斯拉。其中之一是<b>大众汽车</b>（OTCPK：VWAGY）。第三季度，其交付了12.21万辆全电动汽车。根据Statista的数据，它在全球电动汽车领域拥有12.5%的市场份额，仅次于特斯拉。不过，在大众汽车之后，这一数字急剧下降。这个空间里有十几个玩家。</blockquote></p><p> Rivian’s market share in EVs is impossible to calculate because we don’t know how many vehicles it will sell. If the 48,000 pre-orders plus the 100,000 cars ordered by Amazon eventually materialize, then that’s 148,000 future deliveries. However, these deliveries can’t be counted to a specific quarter or year. The Amazon vans are going to be delivered over four years and the pre-orders may fall through. So we can’t compare Rivian’s 148,000 in potential sales to Tesla’s 237,000 in Q3, or Volkswagen’s 122,000. The timeframes don’t line up.</p><p><blockquote>Rivian在电动汽车领域的市场份额无法计算，因为我们不知道它将销售多少辆汽车。如果48,000份预购订单加上亚马逊订购的100,000辆汽车最终实现，那么未来的交付量将达到148,000辆。然而，这些交付量不能计入特定的季度或年份。亚马逊货车将在四年内交付，预购可能会失败。因此，我们无法将Rivian第三季度的148,000辆潜在销量与特斯拉的237,000辆或大众的122,000辆进行比较。时间框架不一致。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, we know that Rivian’s share is likely to be fairly small. If the Amazon deal runs to the end of 2024 then that’s 25,000 deliveries per year, or 6,250 per quarter. That’s assuming deliveries begin in 2021, which TechCrunch says is the case. The 48,000 pre-orders will presumably be delivered over the course of a single year, since most car buyers order the current year’s model. So let’s say 25,000 per year to Amazon and some year -- perhaps 2022 -- when 48,000 get sent out to customers within 12 months. That gets us to 73,000 in a year, or 24,333 per quarter. Nowhere near where Tesla and VW are. And we don’t even know whether the 48,000 pre-orders will come through!</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我们知道Rivian的份额可能相当小。如果亚马逊的交易持续到2024年底，那么每年的交付量为25,000次，即每季度6,250次。这是假设交付将于2021年开始，TechCrunch称情况确实如此。由于大多数购车者订购的是当年的车型，48,000份预购订单可能会在一年内交付。因此，假设每年向亚马逊发送25,000份，有一年——也许是2022年——将在12个月内向客户发送48,000份。这使我们一年达到73,000人，即每季度24,333人。与特斯拉和大众相差甚远。而且我们甚至不知道48000的预购会不会通过！</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Another set of items we can look at to gauge Rivian’s value is its multiples. Broadly, it doesn’t have any. But we can come up with a kind of hypothetical price/sales ratio based on a future scenario.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以衡量Rivian价值的另一组项目是它的倍数。总的来说，它没有任何。但我们可以根据未来的情景得出一种假设的市销率。</blockquote></p><p> If you treat Rivian’s $1,000 pre-order deposits as “sales” then you get to about $48 million in sales. That would produce a price/sales ratio of 2,270, although these deposits aren’t considered revenue based on U.S. GAAP. We could also throw in some indeterminate amount there for the Amazon order, but there is no confirmation that has begun generating revenue.</p><p><blockquote>如果你将Rivian 1000美元的预购定金视为“销售额”，那么你的销售额约为4800万美元。这将产生2,270的市销率，尽管根据美国公认会计准则，这些存款不被视为收入。我们还可以为亚马逊订单投入一些不确定的金额，但没有确认已经开始产生收入。</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps a better multiple would be using future revenue. Rivian trucks start at $69,000. We know there are 48,000 consumer pre-orders, and 100,000 Amazon orders over four years (25,000 per year on average). That could give us a future year with 73,000 sales. If they average to $69,000 per vehicle, then we get to $5.037 billion in revenue. That, with Friday’s market cap of $109 billion, gives us a 22 forward price/sales ratio. That’s not completely insane, but keep in mind we have assumed here that:</p><p><blockquote>也许更好的倍数是使用未来的收入。Rivian卡车起价69,000美元。我们知道有48,000个消费者预购，四年内有100,000个亚马逊订单（平均每年25,000个）。这可能会使我们未来一年的销量达到73,000辆。如果平均每辆车69,000美元，那么我们的收入将达到50.37亿美元。周五的市值为1090亿美元，我们的远期市销率为22。这并不完全疯狂，但请记住，我们在这里假设：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>The 48,000 pre-orders will come through.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>48,000份预购订单将会完成。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>They’ll all be delivered in 2022.</p><p><blockquote><li>它们都将在2022年交付。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Amazon won’t back out of its order even after the scandalous range report.</p><p><blockquote><li>即使在丑闻范围报告之后，亚马逊也不会退出订单。</li></blockquote></p><p></p><p></li> </ul> That’s a lot of assumptions to make. Quite likely, at least one of the moving pieces in this puzzle won’t fit. So what we have got here is a “best case scenario” price/sales ratio where all of the sales Rivian has announced, actually close. And in 2022 no less! I’m attempting to be as charitable with my projection as possible, yet the multiple still ends up being very high.</p><p><blockquote>这需要做很多假设。很有可能，这个拼图中至少有一个移动的部分不合适。因此，我们在这里得到的是一个“最佳情况”的市销率，Rivian宣布的所有销售额实际上都很接近。2022年也不少！我试图尽可能地仁慈地对待我的预测，然而倍数最终仍然非常高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> The bottom line on Rivian is this:</p><p><blockquote>Rivian的底线是：</blockquote></p><p> If any company in 2021 could be another Pets.com, Rivian is it.</p><p><blockquote>如果说2021年有哪家公司可以成为另一家Pets.com，那就是Rivian。</blockquote></p><p> It has no GAAP-recognizable sales. Its IPO went bust after reaching an unbelievable valuation. It is surrounded by hype but has little to back it up.</p><p><blockquote>它没有公认会计准则认可的销售额。它的IPO在达到令人难以置信的估值后破产了。它被炒作所包围，但几乎没有什么支持。</blockquote></p><p> Put simply, it is a product of its time, a hyped up stock in an era where hype has become the norm.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，它是那个时代的产物，是一只在炒作已成为常态的时代被炒作的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Does that mean that Rivian stock is guaranteed to go down? Hardly. Just like there are risks to RIVN longs, there are risks to its shorts as well. Continued social media hype, an unexpected jump in deliveries, or Amazon coming through with its order, are all scenarios that make RIVN a very risky play for shorts.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着Rivian股票肯定会下跌？几乎不。正如RIVN多头存在风险一样，其空头也存在风险。社交媒体的持续炒作、交付量的意外增长，或者亚马逊完成订单，所有这些情况都使RIVN成为空头风险非常大的游戏。</blockquote></p><p> But just like Pets.com before it, RIVN looks unlikely to live up to the promise of its IPO. For that reason, I will pass on the stock.</p><p><blockquote>但就像之前的Pets.com一样，RIVN看起来不太可能兑现其IPO的承诺。出于这个原因，我将传递股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471317-rivian-2021-petscom\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471317-rivian-2021-petscom","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144695405","content_text":"Summary\n\nRivian had a wildly successful IPO, after which it reached a $109 billion market cap.\nHowever, the company has been hit by a string of bad reports, including Ford backing out of a partnership with it.\nThanks to its high valuation, Rivian is beginning to look like Pets.com - the poster child for the 2000 dotcom crash.\nIn this article, I will develop a bearish thesis on Rivian, arguing that its current price level is still excessive.\n\nMichael M. Santiago/Getty Images News\nRivian(RIVN) shareholders got some bad news last week, when Ford(F) announced that it had scrapped its plans to launch a joint venture with the company. The news came shortly after a report claimed that Rivian’s electric vans built for Amazon(AMZN) had less range than advertised.\nFollowing the announcement, Ford kept its 12% ownership stake in RIVN. But its actions cast doubt on any future collaboration. From this point on, Ford will simply be a company that owns RIVN stock. There will be no profitable collaboration going forward.\nWith last week’s news, Amazon and Ford -- Rivian’s two biggest investors -- dealt the company a double whammy. Even before the Ford news dropped, investors were already selling Rivian. After a post-IPO rally, RIVN fell by 25%, going from $172 to $128.60. Reports that the company had no revenue may have contributed to the selloff, which hit a couple days after it was listed.\nIn many ways, Rivian has become the poster child of what some are calling a “new tech bubble.” With NASDAQ stocks reaching new highs seemingly daily, we’re beginning to see price action reminiscent of early 2000, when the NASDAQ reached a 175 P/E ratio. When that bubble finally burst, tech stocks fell 80%. It took the NASDAQ 15 years to recover.\nThe most notorious of all the 2000-era bubble stocks was Pets.com. Like Rivian, it attracted investment from large tech players like Amazon. IPET’s 1998 IPO raised $82.5 million, its stock debuting at $11. At the height of its power, it had a balloon fly in the Macy’s Day Parade. But thanks to an unprofitable business model, the company lost money at a rapid pace. It eventually went bankrupt and, by late 2000, was trading for $0.06 per share.\nWhile the NASDAQ is nowhere near 2000 levels of overvaluation, some individual stocks are getting there. We can find semi stocks,social media stocks, and even blue chip SaaS stocks above 20 times sales. EVs are the most inflated of them all, with even the most mature player in the space sporting a 23.5 price/sales ratio. There are some pricey names in this market, and some don’t even have sales -- let alone earnings!\nRivian is a perfect case-in-point. Much like Pets.com, it has a lot of market cap but no profit. The company claimed in its prospectus that it had 48,390 pre-orders and had collected $1,000 on each one. If that’s the case then it brought in has $48.3 million in cash from those orders. The company won’t be able to recognize any of this as revenue until the vehicles are delivered. If we take the $48.3 million in cash as a kind of “sale” then Rivian has an astonishing 2,270 price/sales ratio. That’s mighty high, but these aren’t considered “sales” under U.S. GAAP. Instead, they represent a liability until the vehicles start being delivered. That is, until the revenue is “earned.”\nPut simply: Rivian has a stratospheric valuation, even if we’re being generous with it. Like Pets.com before it, it trades at a valuation not based on real world performance. Hype, comparisons to Telsa(TSLA) and general optimism toward EVs have driven the price -- not fundamentals. All the telltale signs of a bubble are there. Given this, it would be wise for investors to tread carefully with the stock, as it is beginning to look like the NASDAQ Bubble stocks that rose in the late 90s only to crash painfully in 2000.\nPets.com: Anatomy of a Bubble\nIt’s impossible to talk about the 2000 crash without mentioning Pets.com. The most infamous of the stocks that crashed in the dotcom bust, it was in many ways a microcosm of the NASDAQ in that period.\nEarly on, things looked bright for Pets.com. Amazon bought a large stake in the company in its first venture funding around. Later, a consortium of investors injected $10.5 million. The company ran a $1.2 million super bowl ad. Eventually, it became a household name. In February 2000, it went public for $11 per share, raising $82.5 million.\nThings were going well.\nBut people started asking hard questions about IPET’s business model. It had trouble generating positive gross margins mailing out large bags of dog food. It sold below cost, attempting to gain market share. It spent $400 to acquire each new customer. Finally, it faced stiff competition from a number of companies, all of them offering the same basic thing. In November 2000, it went bankrupt and was delisted.\nIPET’s final annual report contained the following metrics:\n\nCash: $4.6 million, down 52% from the prior year.\nTotal assets: $4.7 million, down 62%\nTotal liabilities: $4.18 million, down 56%.\nCash raised in liquidation: $438,000.\nCash spent in liquidation: $6.3 million.\n\nNo revenue or earnings were reported, because the company was not doing business by the time the report was released. Instead, it was a liquidation company, focused on paying off investors.\nIt’s hard not to see the similarities to Rivian here. We’ve got the early investment by Amazon, the sensational IPO, the lack of profits, and the post-IPO selloff. One factor that’s missing in Rivian’s case is a truly broken business model. There doesn’t appear to be anything RIVN is doing that will make profits impossible. But the company has a long road to drive before it has any real value. In the meantime, investors are left reading vague tea leaves about pre-orders and van range.\nCompetitive Landscape\nOne way to approach Rivian’s value is to look at the marketplace it’s operating in. The electric vehicle industry is a competitive one with a clear market leader:\nTesla.\nTSLA dominates the EV industry on both market cap and revenue, although its market cap dominance is much stronger than its sales lead. Other companies are catching up to Tesla on deliveries. One of those is Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY). In the third quarter, it delivered 122,100 all-electric vehicles. According to Statista, it has a 12.5% market share in EVs globally -- right behind Tesla. It’s a steep drop-off after Volkswagen, though. And there’s more than a dozen players in the space.\nRivian’s market share in EVs is impossible to calculate because we don’t know how many vehicles it will sell. If the 48,000 pre-orders plus the 100,000 cars ordered by Amazon eventually materialize, then that’s 148,000 future deliveries. However, these deliveries can’t be counted to a specific quarter or year. The Amazon vans are going to be delivered over four years and the pre-orders may fall through. So we can’t compare Rivian’s 148,000 in potential sales to Tesla’s 237,000 in Q3, or Volkswagen’s 122,000. The timeframes don’t line up.\nNevertheless, we know that Rivian’s share is likely to be fairly small. If the Amazon deal runs to the end of 2024 then that’s 25,000 deliveries per year, or 6,250 per quarter. That’s assuming deliveries begin in 2021, which TechCrunch says is the case. The 48,000 pre-orders will presumably be delivered over the course of a single year, since most car buyers order the current year’s model. So let’s say 25,000 per year to Amazon and some year -- perhaps 2022 -- when 48,000 get sent out to customers within 12 months. That gets us to 73,000 in a year, or 24,333 per quarter. Nowhere near where Tesla and VW are. And we don’t even know whether the 48,000 pre-orders will come through!\nValuation\nAnother set of items we can look at to gauge Rivian’s value is its multiples. Broadly, it doesn’t have any. But we can come up with a kind of hypothetical price/sales ratio based on a future scenario.\nIf you treat Rivian’s $1,000 pre-order deposits as “sales” then you get to about $48 million in sales. That would produce a price/sales ratio of 2,270, although these deposits aren’t considered revenue based on U.S. GAAP. We could also throw in some indeterminate amount there for the Amazon order, but there is no confirmation that has begun generating revenue.\nPerhaps a better multiple would be using future revenue. Rivian trucks start at $69,000. We know there are 48,000 consumer pre-orders, and 100,000 Amazon orders over four years (25,000 per year on average). That could give us a future year with 73,000 sales. If they average to $69,000 per vehicle, then we get to $5.037 billion in revenue. That, with Friday’s market cap of $109 billion, gives us a 22 forward price/sales ratio. That’s not completely insane, but keep in mind we have assumed here that:\n\nThe 48,000 pre-orders will come through.\nThey’ll all be delivered in 2022.\nAmazon won’t back out of its order even after the scandalous range report.\n\nThat’s a lot of assumptions to make. Quite likely, at least one of the moving pieces in this puzzle won’t fit. So what we have got here is a “best case scenario” price/sales ratio where all of the sales Rivian has announced, actually close. And in 2022 no less! I’m attempting to be as charitable with my projection as possible, yet the multiple still ends up being very high.\nThe Bottom Line\nThe bottom line on Rivian is this:\nIf any company in 2021 could be another Pets.com, Rivian is it.\nIt has no GAAP-recognizable sales. Its IPO went bust after reaching an unbelievable valuation. It is surrounded by hype but has little to back it up.\nPut simply, it is a product of its time, a hyped up stock in an era where hype has become the norm.\nDoes that mean that Rivian stock is guaranteed to go down? Hardly. Just like there are risks to RIVN longs, there are risks to its shorts as well. Continued social media hype, an unexpected jump in deliveries, or Amazon coming through with its order, are all scenarios that make RIVN a very risky play for shorts.\nBut just like Pets.com before it, RIVN looks unlikely to live up to the promise of its IPO. For that reason, I will pass on the stock.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RIVN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2469,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":821591011,"gmtCreate":1633755448785,"gmtModify":1633755448967,"author":{"id":"3555306185724245","authorId":"3555306185724245","name":"starrys","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5fdf02892a55030cf24ff3c4a3678c0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555306185724245","idStr":"3555306185724245"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sas","listText":"Sas","text":"Sas","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821591011","repostId":"1167388174","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2260,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":865147780,"gmtCreate":1632963928597,"gmtModify":1632963928778,"author":{"id":"3555306185724245","authorId":"3555306185724245","name":"starrys","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5fdf02892a55030cf24ff3c4a3678c0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555306185724245","idStr":"3555306185724245"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865147780","repostId":"2171300933","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3247,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":865939160,"gmtCreate":1632929092969,"gmtModify":1632929093135,"author":{"id":"3555306185724245","authorId":"3555306185724245","name":"starrys","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5fdf02892a55030cf24ff3c4a3678c0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555306185724245","idStr":"3555306185724245"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Not interested","listText":"Not interested","text":"Not interested","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865939160","repostId":"1124335226","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124335226","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632928451,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1124335226?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-29 23:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Boeing Stock and Commercial Aerospace Look Set to Gain From ‘Global Inflection’<blockquote>波音股票和商业航空航天似乎将从“全球拐点”中受益</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124335226","media":"Barrons","summary":"An inflection is coming in demand for commercial aerospace. That’s great news, and a relief, for aer","content":"<p>An inflection is coming in demand for commercial aerospace. That’s great news, and a relief, for aerospace investors. And it led Bernstein analyst Doug Harned to upgrade Boeing and some of its peers Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>商业航空航天的需求即将出现拐点。对于航空航天投资者来说，这是个好消息，也是一种解脱。周三，伯恩斯坦分析师道格·哈内德(Doug Harned)上调了波音公司及其一些同行的评级。</blockquote></p><p> Harned upgraded Boeing stock, and shares of Boeing supplier Spirit AeroSystems and Boeing peer Airbus to Buy from Hold Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>周三，哈内德将波音股票以及波音供应商势必锐航空系统公司和波音同行空客的股票评级从持有上调至买入。</blockquote></p><p> His price target for Boeing stock goes to $279 from $252. Harned lifted Spirit Aero’s price target to $66 from $53, and raised the price target for Airbus shares to 142 euros, or about $165, from 121 euros, or $140 a share.</p><p><blockquote>他对波音股票的目标价从252美元上调至279美元。Harned将Spirit Aero的目标价从53美元上调至66美元，并将空客股票的目标价从121欧元（即每股140美元）上调至142欧元（约合165美元）。</blockquote></p><p> Boeing stock is up 5% in Wednesday morning trading. The S&P 500 index and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively. Airbus stock is up 2.7% in overseas trading. And Spirit Aero shares are rallying the most with a 7.6% gain.</p><p><blockquote>波音股价周三早盘上涨5%。标准普尔500指数和道琼斯工业平均指数期货分别上涨0.3%和0.2%。空客股价在海外交易中上涨2.7%。Spirit Aero股价涨幅最大，上涨7.6%。</blockquote></p><p> Harned made some bold calls with the upgrades. “Finally, global inflection,” he wrote, referring to demand for air travel in a Wednesday research report. “Is it time to party? We are not there quite yet, but the path now looks secure.”</p><p><blockquote>哈内德在升级中做了一些大胆的评级。“最后，全球拐点，”他在周三的一份研究报告中提到航空旅行需求时写道。“是时候开派对了吗？我们还没到那一步，但这条路现在看起来很安全。”</blockquote></p><p> Vaccines are giving him confidence. Harned showed how vaccine-penetration rates led to more domestic travel in the U.S. and Europe. U.S. air travel sits about 25% below pre-pandemic levels. Vaccine-penetration rates are now improving in other travel markets such as India and Japan, giving the analyst confidence that international travel demand will improve as domestic air-travel demand grinds higher.</p><p><blockquote>疫苗给了他信心。哈内德展示了疫苗普及率如何导致美国和欧洲更多的国内旅行。美国航空旅行比大流行前的水平低约25%。印度和日本等其他旅游市场的疫苗普及率正在提高，这让分析师相信，随着国内航空旅行需求的增加，国际旅行需求将会改善。</blockquote></p><p> Higher demand will translate into higher deliveries down the road. Harned, for instance is now modeling 57 deliveries of the 757 MAX jet per month by 2025, up from his prior estimate of 54 jets. That’s an example of how improving demand for travel works its way into Boeing’s—or any aerospace company’s—profit and loss statement.</p><p><blockquote>更高的需求将转化为未来更高的交付量。例如，Harned目前正在模拟到2025年每月交付57架757 MAX喷气式飞机，高于他之前估计的54架喷气式飞机。这是旅行需求的改善如何影响波音（或任何航空航天公司）损益表的一个例子。</blockquote></p><p> MAX demand isn’t all about the commercial-aerospace recovery, though. The plane just reentered service in late 2020 after design changes following two deadly crashes. Chinese regulators are flying the plane again. That is an important step to recertify the aircraft for commercial service in China.</p><p><blockquote>不过，最大需求并不全与商业航空航天的复苏有关。这架飞机在经历了两次致命坠机事故后进行了设计变更，于2020年底刚刚重新投入使用。中国监管机构再次驾驶飞机。这是重新认证该飞机在中国商业服务的重要一步。</blockquote></p><p> The MAX issues are hopefully fading investors. Covid, however, is still a big issue, but “with only a few exceptions—particularly in Africa—most countries should be open by April [2022], barring something unexpected, such as a very different new variant, which we do not expect,” added the analyst.</p><p><blockquote>MAX问题有望让投资者褪色。然而，Covid仍然是一个大问题，但“除了少数例外——特别是在非洲——大多数国家应该在2022年4月之前开放，除非出现意想不到的情况，例如我们没有预料到的非常不同的新变种，”这位分析师补充道。</blockquote></p><p> With the upgrades, about 58% of analysts covering Boeing rate the stock at Buy. The average Buy-rating ratio for stocks in the S&P 500 is about 55%. Spirit shares are more popular with bulls than that; about 65% of analysts rate the stock at Buy. Analysts are most bullish on Airbus, which has a Buy-rating ratio of 78%.</p><p><blockquote>随着评级上调，约58%的波音分析师将该股评级为买入。标普500股票的平均买入评级比率约为55%。精神股比这更受多头欢迎；约65%的分析师将该股评级为买入。分析师最看好空客，买入评级为78%。</blockquote></p><p> Airbus shares have been the best performer of the bunch with a 30% gain so far in 2021. SpiritAero stock is up about 10%, while Boeing shares have managed to gain 2%.</p><p><blockquote>空客股价是其中表现最好的，2021年迄今已上涨30%。SpiritAero股价上涨约10%，而波音股价则上涨2%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Boeing Stock and Commercial Aerospace Look Set to Gain From ‘Global Inflection’<blockquote>波音股票和商业航空航天似乎将从“全球拐点”中受益</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBoeing Stock and Commercial Aerospace Look Set to Gain From ‘Global Inflection’<blockquote>波音股票和商业航空航天似乎将从“全球拐点”中受益</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-29 23:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>An inflection is coming in demand for commercial aerospace. That’s great news, and a relief, for aerospace investors. And it led Bernstein analyst Doug Harned to upgrade Boeing and some of its peers Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>商业航空航天的需求即将出现拐点。对于航空航天投资者来说，这是个好消息，也是一种解脱。周三，伯恩斯坦分析师道格·哈内德(Doug Harned)上调了波音公司及其一些同行的评级。</blockquote></p><p> Harned upgraded Boeing stock, and shares of Boeing supplier Spirit AeroSystems and Boeing peer Airbus to Buy from Hold Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>周三，哈内德将波音股票以及波音供应商势必锐航空系统公司和波音同行空客的股票评级从持有上调至买入。</blockquote></p><p> His price target for Boeing stock goes to $279 from $252. Harned lifted Spirit Aero’s price target to $66 from $53, and raised the price target for Airbus shares to 142 euros, or about $165, from 121 euros, or $140 a share.</p><p><blockquote>他对波音股票的目标价从252美元上调至279美元。Harned将Spirit Aero的目标价从53美元上调至66美元，并将空客股票的目标价从121欧元（即每股140美元）上调至142欧元（约合165美元）。</blockquote></p><p> Boeing stock is up 5% in Wednesday morning trading. The S&P 500 index and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively. Airbus stock is up 2.7% in overseas trading. And Spirit Aero shares are rallying the most with a 7.6% gain.</p><p><blockquote>波音股价周三早盘上涨5%。标准普尔500指数和道琼斯工业平均指数期货分别上涨0.3%和0.2%。空客股价在海外交易中上涨2.7%。Spirit Aero股价涨幅最大，上涨7.6%。</blockquote></p><p> Harned made some bold calls with the upgrades. “Finally, global inflection,” he wrote, referring to demand for air travel in a Wednesday research report. “Is it time to party? We are not there quite yet, but the path now looks secure.”</p><p><blockquote>哈内德在升级中做了一些大胆的评级。“最后，全球拐点，”他在周三的一份研究报告中提到航空旅行需求时写道。“是时候开派对了吗？我们还没到那一步，但这条路现在看起来很安全。”</blockquote></p><p> Vaccines are giving him confidence. Harned showed how vaccine-penetration rates led to more domestic travel in the U.S. and Europe. U.S. air travel sits about 25% below pre-pandemic levels. Vaccine-penetration rates are now improving in other travel markets such as India and Japan, giving the analyst confidence that international travel demand will improve as domestic air-travel demand grinds higher.</p><p><blockquote>疫苗给了他信心。哈内德展示了疫苗普及率如何导致美国和欧洲更多的国内旅行。美国航空旅行比大流行前的水平低约25%。印度和日本等其他旅游市场的疫苗普及率正在提高，这让分析师相信，随着国内航空旅行需求的增加，国际旅行需求将会改善。</blockquote></p><p> Higher demand will translate into higher deliveries down the road. Harned, for instance is now modeling 57 deliveries of the 757 MAX jet per month by 2025, up from his prior estimate of 54 jets. That’s an example of how improving demand for travel works its way into Boeing’s—or any aerospace company’s—profit and loss statement.</p><p><blockquote>更高的需求将转化为未来更高的交付量。例如，Harned目前正在模拟到2025年每月交付57架757 MAX喷气式飞机，高于他之前估计的54架喷气式飞机。这是旅行需求的改善如何影响波音（或任何航空航天公司）损益表的一个例子。</blockquote></p><p> MAX demand isn’t all about the commercial-aerospace recovery, though. The plane just reentered service in late 2020 after design changes following two deadly crashes. Chinese regulators are flying the plane again. That is an important step to recertify the aircraft for commercial service in China.</p><p><blockquote>不过，最大需求并不全与商业航空航天的复苏有关。这架飞机在经历了两次致命坠机事故后进行了设计变更，于2020年底刚刚重新投入使用。中国监管机构再次驾驶飞机。这是重新认证该飞机在中国商业服务的重要一步。</blockquote></p><p> The MAX issues are hopefully fading investors. Covid, however, is still a big issue, but “with only a few exceptions—particularly in Africa—most countries should be open by April [2022], barring something unexpected, such as a very different new variant, which we do not expect,” added the analyst.</p><p><blockquote>MAX问题有望让投资者褪色。然而，Covid仍然是一个大问题，但“除了少数例外——特别是在非洲——大多数国家应该在2022年4月之前开放，除非出现意想不到的情况，例如我们没有预料到的非常不同的新变种，”这位分析师补充道。</blockquote></p><p> With the upgrades, about 58% of analysts covering Boeing rate the stock at Buy. The average Buy-rating ratio for stocks in the S&P 500 is about 55%. Spirit shares are more popular with bulls than that; about 65% of analysts rate the stock at Buy. Analysts are most bullish on Airbus, which has a Buy-rating ratio of 78%.</p><p><blockquote>随着评级上调，约58%的波音分析师将该股评级为买入。标普500股票的平均买入评级比率约为55%。精神股比这更受多头欢迎；约65%的分析师将该股评级为买入。分析师最看好空客，买入评级为78%。</blockquote></p><p> Airbus shares have been the best performer of the bunch with a 30% gain so far in 2021. SpiritAero stock is up about 10%, while Boeing shares have managed to gain 2%.</p><p><blockquote>空客股价是其中表现最好的，2021年迄今已上涨30%。SpiritAero股价上涨约10%，而波音股价则上涨2%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/boeing-stock-covid-51632924763?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAL":"美国航空","DAL":"达美航空","BA":"波音","LUV":"西南航空","JBLU":"捷蓝航空","ALK":"阿拉斯加航空集团有限公司","UAL":"联合大陆航空"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/boeing-stock-covid-51632924763?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124335226","content_text":"An inflection is coming in demand for commercial aerospace. That’s great news, and a relief, for aerospace investors. And it led Bernstein analyst Doug Harned to upgrade Boeing and some of its peers Wednesday.\nHarned upgraded Boeing stock, and shares of Boeing supplier Spirit AeroSystems and Boeing peer Airbus to Buy from Hold Wednesday.\nHis price target for Boeing stock goes to $279 from $252. Harned lifted Spirit Aero’s price target to $66 from $53, and raised the price target for Airbus shares to 142 euros, or about $165, from 121 euros, or $140 a share.\nBoeing stock is up 5% in Wednesday morning trading. The S&P 500 index and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively. Airbus stock is up 2.7% in overseas trading. And Spirit Aero shares are rallying the most with a 7.6% gain.\nHarned made some bold calls with the upgrades. “Finally, global inflection,” he wrote, referring to demand for air travel in a Wednesday research report. “Is it time to party? We are not there quite yet, but the path now looks secure.”\nVaccines are giving him confidence. Harned showed how vaccine-penetration rates led to more domestic travel in the U.S. and Europe. U.S. air travel sits about 25% below pre-pandemic levels. Vaccine-penetration rates are now improving in other travel markets such as India and Japan, giving the analyst confidence that international travel demand will improve as domestic air-travel demand grinds higher.\nHigher demand will translate into higher deliveries down the road. Harned, for instance is now modeling 57 deliveries of the 757 MAX jet per month by 2025, up from his prior estimate of 54 jets. That’s an example of how improving demand for travel works its way into Boeing’s—or any aerospace company’s—profit and loss statement.\nMAX demand isn’t all about the commercial-aerospace recovery, though. The plane just reentered service in late 2020 after design changes following two deadly crashes. Chinese regulators are flying the plane again. That is an important step to recertify the aircraft for commercial service in China.\nThe MAX issues are hopefully fading investors. Covid, however, is still a big issue, but “with only a few exceptions—particularly in Africa—most countries should be open by April [2022], barring something unexpected, such as a very different new variant, which we do not expect,” added the analyst.\nWith the upgrades, about 58% of analysts covering Boeing rate the stock at Buy. The average Buy-rating ratio for stocks in the S&P 500 is about 55%. Spirit shares are more popular with bulls than that; about 65% of analysts rate the stock at Buy. Analysts are most bullish on Airbus, which has a Buy-rating ratio of 78%.\nAirbus shares have been the best performer of the bunch with a 30% gain so far in 2021. SpiritAero stock is up about 10%, while Boeing shares have managed to gain 2%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAL":0.9,"DAL":0.9,"BA":0.9,"LUV":0.9,"UAL":0.9,"JBLU":0.9,"ALK":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3635,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":866010228,"gmtCreate":1632711020764,"gmtModify":1632798377803,"author":{"id":"3555306185724245","authorId":"3555306185724245","name":"starrys","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5fdf02892a55030cf24ff3c4a3678c0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555306185724245","idStr":"3555306185724245"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Stay longterm","listText":"Stay longterm","text":"Stay longterm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/866010228","repostId":"2170488786","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2170488786","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632685409,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2170488786?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-27 03:43","market":"other","language":"en","title":"Debt ceiling debates in Congress, consumer confidence: What to know this week<blockquote>国会债务上限辩论、消费者信心：本周需要了解什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2170488786","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"Investors this week are set to closely monitor developments in Washington, D.C., as lawmakers race t","content":"<p><div> Investors this week are set to closely monitor developments in Washington, D.C., as lawmakers race to pass legislation to avoid a government shutdown by the end of the month and debate raising the ...</p><p><blockquote><div>投资者本周将密切关注华盛顿特区的事态发展，因为议员们竞相通过立法，以避免政府在本月底关闭，并就提高...</div></blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/debt-ceiling-debates-in-congress-consumer-confidence-what-to-know-this-week-194329712.html\">网页链接</a> </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/debt-ceiling-debates-in-congress-consumer-confidence-what-to-know-this-week-194329712.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"yahoofinance_au","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Debt ceiling debates in Congress, consumer confidence: What to know this week<blockquote>国会债务上限辩论、消费者信心：本周需要了解什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDebt ceiling debates in Congress, consumer confidence: What to know this week<blockquote>国会债务上限辩论、消费者信心：本周需要了解什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Yahoo Finance</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-27 03:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Investors this week are set to closely monitor developments in Washington, D.C., as lawmakers race to pass legislation to avoid a government shutdown by the end of the month and debate raising the ...</p><p><blockquote><div>投资者本周将密切关注华盛顿特区的事态发展，因为议员们竞相通过立法，以避免政府在本月底关闭，并就提高...</div></blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/debt-ceiling-debates-in-congress-consumer-confidence-what-to-know-this-week-194329712.html\">网页链接</a> </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/debt-ceiling-debates-in-congress-consumer-confidence-what-to-know-this-week-194329712.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/debt-ceiling-debates-in-congress-consumer-confidence-what-to-know-this-week-194329712.html\">Yahoo Finance</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7e749e88d2580d292ffc6ae18d03b65","relate_stocks":{"SPY.AU":"SPDR® S&P 500® ETF Trust"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/debt-ceiling-debates-in-congress-consumer-confidence-what-to-know-this-week-194329712.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2170488786","content_text":"Investors this week are set to closely monitor developments in Washington, D.C., as lawmakers race to pass legislation to avoid a government shutdown by the end of the month and debate raising the debt ceiling. Elsewhere, economic data on consumer confidence is also due for release.\nThe Senate is expected to vote Monday on a procedural motion over the legislation passed by the House of Representatives last week. That bill included a plan to temporarily fund the government through early December, and came alongside a measure to raise the government debt ceiling through December 2022.\nThe latter point has been an area of contention for Senate Republicans, who are only narrowly outnumbered by Democratic lawmakers in both chambers and who have threatened to block the bill in its current form.\nSenate Republicans including Minority Leader Mitch McConnell have suggested that Democratic lawmakers should use the budget reconciliation process to raise the debt ceiling without Republican support. McConnell has, however, supported a short-term government funding bill that excludes a debt ceiling suspension.\n\"If they [the Democrats] want to tax, borrow and spend historic sums of money without our input, they’ll have to raise the debt limit without our help. This is the reality,” McConnell said on the Senate floor last week.\nDemocratic lawmakers, for their part, have called for the move to raise the debt limit be bipartisan to prevent the government from defaulting on its obligations. The Treasury Department has warned that the U.S. could default on its debts as soon as October in absence of congressional action.\n\"The U.S. has always paid its bills on time, but the overwhelming consensus among economists and Treasury officials of both parties is that failing to raise the debt limit would produce widespread economic catastrophe,\" Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen wrote in an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal last week.\nFederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also warned of the consequences of a failure to raise the debt ceiling during his post-FOMC meeting press conference last week.\n\"It's just very important that the debt ceiling be raised in a timely fashion so that the United States can pay its bills when and as they come due. That's a critically important thing,\" he said. \"The failure to do that is something that could result in severe reactions, severe damage to the economy and to the financial markets ... no one should assume that the Fed or anyone else can protect the markets or the economy in the event of a failure.\"\nA dead Elm tree is removed on the West Front of the Capitol in Washington, Friday, Sept. 10, 2021. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)ASSOCIATED PRESS\nAmid the standoff, the Office of Management and Budget began warning federal agencies last week to prepare for a potential government shutdown. The reminder served as a standard warning one week out from Congress's deadline to reach an agreement to at least temporarily continue funding the government.\nThough leaders of both political parties have agreed that a continuing resolution to avoid the shutdown at the end of the month is needed, the ongoing tension over raising the debt limit has served as a potential roadblock in this effort.\n\"We still expect Congress to avert a partial government shutdown at the start of October. Republicans won’t vote for the current continuing resolution being touted by the Democratic leadership, which also includes a new debt ceiling suspension,\" wrote Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist for Capital Economics, in a note Friday. \"But we expect a Plan B to emerge next week with the latter stripped out, which Republicans will support.\"\n\"The bigger issue is that there doesn’t appear to be an easy path to raising the debt ceiling by mid-October, which is when estimates suggest the Treasury’s will exhaust the 'extraordinary measures it is currently using to keep the lights on,\" he added.\nInvestors have also grown jittery as the debates wore on, with stocks posting their worst day since May last week amid a confluence of concerns that also included debt concerns with China Evergrande.\nMany strategists, however, have suggested market participants need not be overly concerned about the impacts of a potential government shutdown.\n\"Historically, we've seen that government shutdowns tend to be short-lived,\" Jordan Jackson, JPMorgan Asset Management global market strategist, told Yahoo Finance Live on Friday. \"We also know that for those non-essential federal employees, they do get furlough pay as well.\"\n\"If it lasts more than 30 days, it's certainly going to have a bigger impact on the economy. But generally speaking, these shutdowns tend to be short-lived and markets — while they may correct in the short-term — they do sort of continue to grind higher,\" he added. \"I think it's certainly a risk in terms of a short-term mini correction there. But again, with all the liquidity out there, I think any sort of blip in the markets will be short-lived.\"\nHistorical equity performance during and immediately following a government shutdown has also tended to point to a muted market impact.\n\"In the 14 government shutdowns since 1980, the S&P 500 generated median returns of -0.1% on the dates of budget authority expiration, 0.1% during the shutdown periods, and 0.3% on the dates of resolution,\" David Kostin, Goldman Sachs chief equity strategist, wrote in a note published on Sept. 21.\n\"One notable exception was the most recent federal shutdown in December 2018, when the S&P 500 fell 2% on the spending authority expiration date,\" he added. \"However, this decline was likely driven primarily by investor concerns about Fed tightening.\"\nKostin also noted that the typical government shutdown since 1980 has only lasted three days before ultimately being resolved. More recent shutdowns have lasted several times longer, however, with the duration of the four most recent federal shutdowns averaging 18 days, Kostin said.\nConsumer confidence\nOn the economic data front, one of the most closely watched new pieces of data will be on consumer confidence.\nThe Conference Board is set to release its September consumer confidence index Tuesday morning. Economists expect the index to tick up only slightly compared to August, with consumers' views on the coronavirus and rising prices stabilizing near the lowest level since February.\nSpecifically, consensus economists are looking for the index to rise to 115.0 in September after dropping to 113.8 in August. During the last monthly report, consumers' assessments of current business and labor market conditions both eased, and expectations for the next six months out also deteriorated.\n\"Consumer confidence fell to a six-month low in August, due to concerns around the Delta variant and inflation,\" wrote Bank of America economist Michelle Meyer in a note on Friday. \"We think these concerns largely remained in September.\"\nAt the time, Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at the Conference Board, said it was still \"too soon to conclude\" whether decline in consumer confidence would \"result in consumers significantly curtailing their spending in the months ahead.\"\nThe latest spending data has also been equivocal. The Commerce Department's latest report showed retail sales rose 0.7% in August after declining in July. However, the categories posting the biggest declines were areas like e-commerce shops and grocery stores, suggesting consumer behavior was shifting back toward stay-in-place trends and away from in-person events like restaurant dining amid the latest wave of the coronavirus.\nEconomic calendar\n\nMonday: Durable goods orders, August preliminary (0.6% expected, -0.1% in July); Durable goods excluding transportation, August preliminary (0.5% expected, 0.8% in July); Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, August preliminary (0.3% expected, 0.1% in July); Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, August preliminary (0.9% in July); Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index, September (11.0 expected, 9.0 in July)\nTuesday: Advance goods trade balance, August (-$87.0 billion expected, -$86.4 billion in July); Wholesale inventories, month-over-month, August preliminary (0.6% in July); Retail inventories, month-over-month, August (0.4% in July); FHFA House Price Index, month-over-month, July (1.5% expected, 1.6% in July); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index, month-over-month, July (1.62% expected, 1.77% in June); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index, month-over-month, July (20.1% expected, 19.08% in June); Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, September (114.2 expected, 113.8 in August); Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, September (9 in August)\nWednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended September 24 (4.9% during prior month); Pending home sales, month-over-month, August (1.0% expected, -1.8% in July)\nThursday: Initial jobless claims, week ended September 25 (320,000 expected, 351,000 during prior week); Continuing claims, week ended September 18 (2.845 million during prior week); GDP annualized, quarter-over-quarter, second-quarter third estimate (6.7% expected, 6.6% in prior estimate); Personal consumption, second-quarter third estimate (11.9% in prior estimate); Core personal consumption expenditures, second quarter third estimate (6.1% in prior estimate); MNI Chicago PMI, September (65.0 expected, 66.8 in August)\nFriday: Personal income, August (0.2% expected, 1.1% in July); Personal spending, August (0.7% expected, 0.3% in July); Personal consumption expenditures core deflator, month-over-over, August (0.2% expected, 0.3% in July); Personal consumption expenditures core deflator, year-over-year, August (3.6% expected, 3.6% in July); Markit manufacturing PMI, September final (60.5 in prior estimate); Construction spending, month-over-month, August (0.3% expected, 0.3% in July); University of Michigan sentiment, September final (71.0 expected, 71.0 in prior print); ISM Manufacturing, September (59.5 expected, 59.9 in August)\n\nEarnings calendar\n\nMonday: Aurora Cannabis (ACB) after market close\nTuesday: Micron Technology (MU) after market close.\nWednesday: No notable reports scheduled for release\nThursday: CarMax (KMX), Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) before market open; Jefferies (JEF) after market close\nFriday: No notable reports scheduled for releas","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY.AU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3421,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":814289983,"gmtCreate":1630823834442,"gmtModify":1631890638245,"author":{"id":"3555306185724245","authorId":"3555306185724245","name":"starrys","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5fdf02892a55030cf24ff3c4a3678c0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555306185724245","idStr":"3555306185724245"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Niceee","listText":"Niceee","text":"Niceee","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/814289983","repostId":"1157895022","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157895022","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630810619,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157895022?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-05 10:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Beat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs<blockquote>利用这个非常看好历史新高股票的量化系统击败市场</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157895022","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do ","content":"<p> <b>Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do so. So far his team of computer scientists’ strategy has paid off.</b> Imagine you had a money-making machine to harvest gains in the stock market while you sat back to enjoy life.</p><p><blockquote><b>万斯·霍华德(Vance Howard)的HCM战术增长基金在谨慎的情况下让您进出股市。到目前为止，他的计算机科学家团队的策略已经得到了回报。</b>想象一下，当你坐下来享受生活时，你有一台赚钱机器在股市中收获收益。</blockquote></p><p> That’s everyone’s dream, right? Investor Vance Howard thinks he’s found it.</p><p><blockquote>那是每个人的梦想，对吧？投资者万斯·霍华德认为他已经找到了。</blockquote></p><p> Howard and his small army of computer programmers atHoward Capital Managementin Roswell, Ga., have a quantitative system that posts great returns.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德和他的一小队计算机程序员在佐治亚州罗斯威尔的资本管理公司工作。，有一个量化系统，张贴巨大的回报。</blockquote></p><p> His HCM Tactical Growth Fund HCMGX,+0.35%beats its Russell 1000 benchmark index and large-blend fund category by 8.5-10.4 percentage points annualized over the past five years, according to Morningstar. That is no small feat, and not only because it has to overcome a 2.22% fee. Beating the market is simply not easy. His HCM Dividend Sector PlusHCMQX,-0.05%) and HCM Income PlusHCMLX,+0.30%funds post similar outperformance.</p><p><blockquote>根据晨星公司的数据，他的HCM战术增长基金HCMGX,+0.35%在过去五年中的年化增长率比罗素1000基准指数和大型混合基金类别高出8.5-10.4个百分点。这不是一个小壮举，不仅因为它必须克服2.22%的费用。战胜市场并不容易。他的HCM Dividend Sector PlusHCMQX,-0.05%)和HCM Income PlusHCMLX,+0.30%基金也表现类似。</blockquote></p><p> There are drawbacks, which I detail below. (Among them: Potentially long stretches of underperformance and regular tax bills.) But first, what can we learn from this winner?</p><p><blockquote>有缺点，我在下面详述。（其中包括：潜在的长期表现不佳和定期的税单。）但首先，我们能从这位赢家身上学到什么？</blockquote></p><p> So-called quants never share all the details of their proprietary systems, but Howard shares a lot, as you’ll see. And this Texas rancher has a lot of good advice based on “horse sense” — not surprising, given his infectious passion for the markets, and his three decades of experience as a pro.</p><p><blockquote>所谓的量化分析师从不分享他们专有系统的所有细节，但霍华德分享了很多，正如你将看到的。这位德克萨斯州牧场主有很多基于“马的感觉”的好建议——考虑到他对市场富有感染力的热情，以及他三十年的职业经验，这并不奇怪。</blockquote></p><p> Here are five lessons, 12 exchange traded funds (ETFs) and four stocks to consider, from a recent interview with him.</p><p><blockquote>以下是最近对他的采访中的五个教训、12只交易所交易基金(ETF)和四只值得考虑的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #1: Don’t be emotional</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第一课：不要情绪化</b></blockquote></p><p> It’s no surprise so many people do poorly in the market. Evolution has programmed us to fail. For survival, we’ve learned to run from things that frightens us. And crave more of things that are pleasurable — like sweets or fats to store calories ahead of what might be a long stretch without food. But in the market, acting on the emotions of fear and greed invariably make us do the wrong thing at the wrong time. Sell at the bottom, buy at the top.</p><p><blockquote>难怪这么多人在市场上表现不佳。进化让我们注定要失败。为了生存，我们学会了逃避让我们害怕的事情。渴望更多令人愉快的东西——比如甜食或脂肪，以便在长时间没有食物之前储存卡路里。但在市场中，对恐惧和贪婪的情绪采取行动总是会让我们在错误的时间做错误的事情。底部卖出，顶部买入。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, we’re programmed to believe being with the crowd brings safety. If you’re a zebra on the Savanna, you are more likely to get picked off by a predator if you go it alone. The problem here is being part of a crowd — and crowd psychology — dumb us down to a purely emotional level. This is why people in crowds do terrible things they would never do on their own. It doesn’t matter how smart you are. When you join a crowd, you lose a lot of IQ points. Base emotions take over.</p><p><blockquote>同样，我们被设定为相信和人群在一起会带来安全。如果你是稀树草原上的斑马，如果你单干，你更有可能被捕食者吃掉。这里的问题是，成为人群的一部分——以及人群心理——让我们变得愚蠢到纯粹的情感层面。这就是为什么人群中的人会做他们自己永远不会做的可怕的事情。你有多聪明并不重要。当你加入一个人群时，你会失去很多智商点。基本情绪占了上风。</blockquote></p><p> To do well in the market, you have to counteract these tendencies. “One of the biggest mistakes individual investors and money managers make is getting emotional,” says Howard. “Let your emotions go.”</p><p><blockquote>要想在市场上做得好，你必须抵制这些倾向。“个人投资者和基金经理犯的最大错误之一就是变得情绪化，”霍华德说。“放下你的情绪。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #2: Have a system and stick to it</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第二课：有一个系统并坚持下去</b></blockquote></p><p> To exorcise emotion, have a system. “And don’t second guess it,” says Howard. “This keeps you from letting the pandemic or Afghanistan scare you out of the market.” He calls his system the HCM-BuyLine. It is basically a momentum and trend-following system — which often works well in the markets.</p><p><blockquote>驱除情绪，要有一个系统。“不要怀疑它，”霍华德说。“这可以防止你被大流行或阿富汗吓出市场。”他评级了他的系统HCM-购买线。它基本上是一个动量和趋势跟踪系统——通常在市场上运行良好。</blockquote></p><p> The HCM-BuyLine basically works like this. First, rather than use the S&P 500SPX,-0.03%or the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.21%,Howard blends several stock indices to create his own index. Then he uses a moving average that tells him whether the market is in an uptrend or downtrend.</p><p><blockquote>HCM-BuyLine基本上是这样工作的。首先，霍华德没有使用标准普尔500SPX（-0.03%）或道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA（-0.21%），而是混合了几个股票指数来创建自己的指数。然后他使用移动平均线来告诉他市场是处于上升趋势还是下降趋势。</blockquote></p><p> When the moving average drops 3.5%, he sells 35%. If it drops 6.5%, he sells another 35%. He rarely goes to 100% cash.</p><p><blockquote>当移动平均线下跌3.5%时，他卖出35%。如果下跌6.5%，他就再卖出35%。他很少100%现金。</blockquote></p><p> “If the BuyLine is positive, we will stay long no matter what,” he says. “We take all the emotion out of the equation by letting the math decide.”</p><p><blockquote>“如果买入线为正，无论如何我们都会长期持有，”他说。“我们通过让数学来决定，将所有情感从等式中剔除。”</blockquote></p><p> Right now, it’s bullish. (More on this below.)</p><p><blockquote>目前，情况看涨。（更多信息见下文。）</blockquote></p><p> Your system also has to tell you when to get back in.</p><p><blockquote>你的系统还必须告诉你什么时候回去。</blockquote></p><p> “That’s where most people screw up,” he says. “They get out of the market, and they don’t know when to get back in.” The HCM-BuyLine gives a buy signal when his custom index trades above its moving average for six consecutive sessions, and then goes on to trade above the high hit during those six days.</p><p><blockquote>“这就是大多数人搞砸的地方，”他说。“他们退出市场，不知道什么时候才能重新进入。”当他的定制指数连续六个交易日高于其移动平均线时，HCM-买入线会发出买入信号，然后继续高于这六天触及的高点。</blockquote></p><p> You don’t need a system that calls exact market tops or bottoms. Instead, the BuyLine keeps Howard out of down markets 85% of the time, and in for 85% of the good times.</p><p><blockquote>你不需要一个评级精确市场顶部或底部的系统。相反，买入线让霍华德在85%的时间里远离低迷的市场，在85%的好时光里远离。</blockquote></p><p> “If we can do that consistently, we have superior returns and a less stressful life,” he says. “Being all in during a bad tape is no fun.”</p><p><blockquote>“如果我们能够始终如一地做到这一点，我们就会获得更高的回报和更少的生活压力，”他说。“在一盘糟糕的磁带中全力以赴一点也不好玩。”</blockquote></p><p> His system is slow to get him out of the market, but quick to get him back in. Not even a 10% correction will necessarily move him out. He’s often buying those pullbacks. Getting back in fast makes sense, because recoveries off bottoms tend to happen fast.</p><p><blockquote>他的系统让他退出市场很慢，但让他回来很快。即使是10%的修正也不一定能让他出局。他经常买入那些回调。快速反弹是有意义的，因为从底部恢复往往会很快。</blockquote></p><p> “The HCM-BuyLine takes all the emotion out of the process,” says Howard.</p><p><blockquote>“HCM-BuyLine消除了整个过程中的所有情绪，”霍华德说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #3: Don’t fight the tape</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三课：不要和磁带作对</b></blockquote></p><p> This concept is one of the core pieces of wisdom from Marty Zweig’s classic book, “Winning on Wall Street.”</p><p><blockquote>这一概念是马蒂·茨威格经典著作《在华尔街获胜》中的核心智慧之一。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “You have to stay on the right side of market,” agrees Howard. “If you try to trade long in a bad market, it is painful.”</p><p><blockquote>“你必须站在市场的正确一边，”霍华德表示同意。“如果你试图在糟糕的市场中做多，那是很痛苦的。”</blockquote></p><p> In other words, don’t try to be a hero.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，不要试图成为英雄。</blockquote></p><p> “Sometimes, not losing money is where you want to be,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“有时候，不赔钱才是你想要的，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, don’t turn cautious just because the market hits new highs — like now. You should love new highs, because it is a sign of market strength that may likely endure.</p><p><blockquote>同样，不要仅仅因为市场创下新高就变得谨慎——就像现在这样。你应该喜欢新高，因为这是市场力量的标志，可能会持续下去。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #4: Keep it simple</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第四课：保持简单</b></blockquote></p><p> As you’ll see below, Howard doesn’t use esoteric instruments such as derivatives, swaps or index options. He doesn’t even trade foreign stocks or currencies. This is refreshing for individual investors, because we have a harder time accessing those tools.</p><p><blockquote>正如您将在下面看到的，霍华德不使用衍生品、掉期或指数期权等深奥工具。他甚至不交易外国股票或货币。这对个人投资者来说令人耳目一新，因为我们更难获得这些工具。</blockquote></p><p> “You don’t have to trade crazy stuff,” he says. “You can trade plain-vanilla ETFs and beat everybody out there.”</p><p><blockquote>“你不必交易疯狂的东西，”他说。“你可以交易普通的ETF并击败所有人。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #5: How to trade the current market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第5课：如何交易当前市场</b></blockquote></p><p> First, be long.</p><p><blockquote>首先，做长。</blockquote></p><p> “The HCM-BuyLine is very positive. We are 100% in,” says Howard. “The market is broadening out. It is getting pretty exciting. We do not see it turn around any time soon. We are buying pullbacks.”</p><p><blockquote>“HCM-购买线非常积极。我们100%参与，”霍华德说。“市场正在扩大。它变得相当令人兴奋。我们认为它不会很快好转。我们正在买入回调。”</blockquote></p><p> One bullish signal is all the cash on the sidelines. “If there is any relief in Covid, we may see a big rally. We may end up with a great fall [season].”</p><p><blockquote>一个看涨信号是所有现金都在观望。“如果新冠疫情有所缓解，我们可能会看到大幅反弹。我们可能会以一个伟大的秋季[季节]结束。”</blockquote></p><p> Howard uses momentum indicators to select stocks and ETFs, too. For sectors he favors the following.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德也使用动量指标来选择股票和ETF。对于行业，他倾向于以下几点。</blockquote></p><p> He likes health care, tradable through the iShares US HealthcareIYH,-0.04%and ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL,+0.12%ETFs. He’s turning more bullish on biotech, which he plays via the iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB,-0.11%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢医疗保健，可通过iShares US HealthcareIYH(-0.04%)和ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL(+0.12%)ETF进行交易。他变得更加看好生物技术，他通过iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB进行投资，-0.11%。</blockquote></p><p> He likes consumer discretionary tradable through the iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC,-0.30%,and airlines via US Global JetsJETS,-1.17%.He also likes tech exposure via the Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ,+0.31%,iShares US TechnologyIYW,+0.50%and iShares SemiconductorSOXX,+0.75%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢通过iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC(-0.30%)进行交易的非必需消费品，以及通过US Global JetsJETS(-1.17%)进行交易的航空公司。他还喜欢通过Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ(+0.31%)、iShares US TechnologyIYW(+0.50%)进行科技投资和iShares半导体SOXX，+0.75%。</blockquote></p><p> He likes small-caps via the Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK,+0.07%.And convertible bonds via SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Convertible SecuritiesCWB,+0.64%and iShares Convertible BondICVT,+0.37%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK，+0.07%的小盘股。以及SPDR Bloomberg Barclays可转换证券CWB，+0.64%和iShares可转换债券ICVT，+0.37%的可转换债券。</blockquote></p><p> As for individual names, he singles out MicrosoftMSFT,-0.00%and AppleAAPL,+0.42%in tech, as well as Amazon.comAMZN,+0.43%and TeslaTSLA,+0.16%.</p><p><blockquote>至于个人名称，他特别提到了科技股中的微软MSFT(-0.00%)和苹果AAPL(+0.42%)，以及亚马逊MAMZN(+0.43%)和特斯拉TSLA(+0.16%)。</blockquote></p><p> Also consider Howard’s two ETFs: The HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH,+0.62%and HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH,+1.32%.</p><p><blockquote>另请考虑Howard的两只ETF：HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH，+0.62%和HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH，+1.32%。</blockquote></p><p> He prefers to add to holdings on 1%-3% dips.</p><p><blockquote>他更喜欢在下跌1%-3%时增持。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A few drawbacks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一些缺点</b></blockquote></p><p> His HCM Tactical Growth fund has a history of posting two-year stretches of underperformance of 1.5% to 8.8%, since it was launched in 2015. The fund then came roaring back to net the very positive five-year outperformance cited above. Investing in his system can require patience.</p><p><blockquote>他的HCM战术增长基金自2015年推出以来，曾连续两年表现不佳，涨幅为1.5%至8.8%。随后，该基金卷土重来，实现了上述非常积极的五年优异表现。投资他的系统需要耐心。</blockquote></p><p> Every manager, including Warren Buffett, can have a stretch of underperformance, says Howard.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德说，每个经理人，包括沃伦·巴菲特，都可能有一段时间表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> “We are in the odds game,” he says. “Even in the odds game, you can have a bad hand or two thrown at you.”</p><p><blockquote>“我们正处于赔率游戏中，”他说。“即使在赔率游戏中，你也可能会遇到一两手糟糕的牌。”</blockquote></p><p> Another challenge is the high turnover, which is 140% a year for Tactical Growth. This means Uncle Sam takes a big cut in the good years. So if you buy Howard’s funds, you may want to do so in a tax-protected account.</p><p><blockquote>另一个挑战是高流动率，战术增长每年140%。这意味着山姆大叔在好年景中会得到很大的提成。因此，如果您购买霍华德的基金，您可能希望在避税账户中购买。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Beat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs<blockquote>利用这个非常看好历史新高股票的量化系统击败市场</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBeat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs<blockquote>利用这个非常看好历史新高股票的量化系统击败市场</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-05 10:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p> <b>Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do so. So far his team of computer scientists’ strategy has paid off.</b> Imagine you had a money-making machine to harvest gains in the stock market while you sat back to enjoy life.</p><p><blockquote><b>万斯·霍华德(Vance Howard)的HCM战术增长基金在谨慎的情况下让您进出股市。到目前为止，他的计算机科学家团队的策略已经得到了回报。</b>想象一下，当你坐下来享受生活时，你有一台赚钱机器在股市中收获收益。</blockquote></p><p> That’s everyone’s dream, right? Investor Vance Howard thinks he’s found it.</p><p><blockquote>那是每个人的梦想，对吧？投资者万斯·霍华德认为他已经找到了。</blockquote></p><p> Howard and his small army of computer programmers atHoward Capital Managementin Roswell, Ga., have a quantitative system that posts great returns.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德和他的一小队计算机程序员在佐治亚州罗斯威尔的资本管理公司工作。，有一个量化系统，张贴巨大的回报。</blockquote></p><p> His HCM Tactical Growth Fund HCMGX,+0.35%beats its Russell 1000 benchmark index and large-blend fund category by 8.5-10.4 percentage points annualized over the past five years, according to Morningstar. That is no small feat, and not only because it has to overcome a 2.22% fee. Beating the market is simply not easy. His HCM Dividend Sector PlusHCMQX,-0.05%) and HCM Income PlusHCMLX,+0.30%funds post similar outperformance.</p><p><blockquote>根据晨星公司的数据，他的HCM战术增长基金HCMGX,+0.35%在过去五年中的年化增长率比罗素1000基准指数和大型混合基金类别高出8.5-10.4个百分点。这不是一个小壮举，不仅因为它必须克服2.22%的费用。战胜市场并不容易。他的HCM Dividend Sector PlusHCMQX,-0.05%)和HCM Income PlusHCMLX,+0.30%基金也表现类似。</blockquote></p><p> There are drawbacks, which I detail below. (Among them: Potentially long stretches of underperformance and regular tax bills.) But first, what can we learn from this winner?</p><p><blockquote>有缺点，我在下面详述。（其中包括：潜在的长期表现不佳和定期的税单。）但首先，我们能从这位赢家身上学到什么？</blockquote></p><p> So-called quants never share all the details of their proprietary systems, but Howard shares a lot, as you’ll see. And this Texas rancher has a lot of good advice based on “horse sense” — not surprising, given his infectious passion for the markets, and his three decades of experience as a pro.</p><p><blockquote>所谓的量化分析师从不分享他们专有系统的所有细节，但霍华德分享了很多，正如你将看到的。这位德克萨斯州牧场主有很多基于“马的感觉”的好建议——考虑到他对市场富有感染力的热情，以及他三十年的职业经验，这并不奇怪。</blockquote></p><p> Here are five lessons, 12 exchange traded funds (ETFs) and four stocks to consider, from a recent interview with him.</p><p><blockquote>以下是最近对他的采访中的五个教训、12只交易所交易基金(ETF)和四只值得考虑的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #1: Don’t be emotional</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第一课：不要情绪化</b></blockquote></p><p> It’s no surprise so many people do poorly in the market. Evolution has programmed us to fail. For survival, we’ve learned to run from things that frightens us. And crave more of things that are pleasurable — like sweets or fats to store calories ahead of what might be a long stretch without food. But in the market, acting on the emotions of fear and greed invariably make us do the wrong thing at the wrong time. Sell at the bottom, buy at the top.</p><p><blockquote>难怪这么多人在市场上表现不佳。进化让我们注定要失败。为了生存，我们学会了逃避让我们害怕的事情。渴望更多令人愉快的东西——比如甜食或脂肪，以便在长时间没有食物之前储存卡路里。但在市场中，对恐惧和贪婪的情绪采取行动总是会让我们在错误的时间做错误的事情。底部卖出，顶部买入。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, we’re programmed to believe being with the crowd brings safety. If you’re a zebra on the Savanna, you are more likely to get picked off by a predator if you go it alone. The problem here is being part of a crowd — and crowd psychology — dumb us down to a purely emotional level. This is why people in crowds do terrible things they would never do on their own. It doesn’t matter how smart you are. When you join a crowd, you lose a lot of IQ points. Base emotions take over.</p><p><blockquote>同样，我们被设定为相信和人群在一起会带来安全。如果你是稀树草原上的斑马，如果你单干，你更有可能被捕食者吃掉。这里的问题是，成为人群的一部分——以及人群心理——让我们变得愚蠢到纯粹的情感层面。这就是为什么人群中的人会做他们自己永远不会做的可怕的事情。你有多聪明并不重要。当你加入一个人群时，你会失去很多智商点。基本情绪占了上风。</blockquote></p><p> To do well in the market, you have to counteract these tendencies. “One of the biggest mistakes individual investors and money managers make is getting emotional,” says Howard. “Let your emotions go.”</p><p><blockquote>要想在市场上做得好，你必须抵制这些倾向。“个人投资者和基金经理犯的最大错误之一就是变得情绪化，”霍华德说。“放下你的情绪。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #2: Have a system and stick to it</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第二课：有一个系统并坚持下去</b></blockquote></p><p> To exorcise emotion, have a system. “And don’t second guess it,” says Howard. “This keeps you from letting the pandemic or Afghanistan scare you out of the market.” He calls his system the HCM-BuyLine. It is basically a momentum and trend-following system — which often works well in the markets.</p><p><blockquote>驱除情绪，要有一个系统。“不要怀疑它，”霍华德说。“这可以防止你被大流行或阿富汗吓出市场。”他评级了他的系统HCM-购买线。它基本上是一个动量和趋势跟踪系统——通常在市场上运行良好。</blockquote></p><p> The HCM-BuyLine basically works like this. First, rather than use the S&P 500SPX,-0.03%or the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.21%,Howard blends several stock indices to create his own index. Then he uses a moving average that tells him whether the market is in an uptrend or downtrend.</p><p><blockquote>HCM-BuyLine基本上是这样工作的。首先，霍华德没有使用标准普尔500SPX（-0.03%）或道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA（-0.21%），而是混合了几个股票指数来创建自己的指数。然后他使用移动平均线来告诉他市场是处于上升趋势还是下降趋势。</blockquote></p><p> When the moving average drops 3.5%, he sells 35%. If it drops 6.5%, he sells another 35%. He rarely goes to 100% cash.</p><p><blockquote>当移动平均线下跌3.5%时，他卖出35%。如果下跌6.5%，他就再卖出35%。他很少100%现金。</blockquote></p><p> “If the BuyLine is positive, we will stay long no matter what,” he says. “We take all the emotion out of the equation by letting the math decide.”</p><p><blockquote>“如果买入线为正，无论如何我们都会长期持有，”他说。“我们通过让数学来决定，将所有情感从等式中剔除。”</blockquote></p><p> Right now, it’s bullish. (More on this below.)</p><p><blockquote>目前，情况看涨。（更多信息见下文。）</blockquote></p><p> Your system also has to tell you when to get back in.</p><p><blockquote>你的系统还必须告诉你什么时候回去。</blockquote></p><p> “That’s where most people screw up,” he says. “They get out of the market, and they don’t know when to get back in.” The HCM-BuyLine gives a buy signal when his custom index trades above its moving average for six consecutive sessions, and then goes on to trade above the high hit during those six days.</p><p><blockquote>“这就是大多数人搞砸的地方，”他说。“他们退出市场，不知道什么时候才能重新进入。”当他的定制指数连续六个交易日高于其移动平均线时，HCM-买入线会发出买入信号，然后继续高于这六天触及的高点。</blockquote></p><p> You don’t need a system that calls exact market tops or bottoms. Instead, the BuyLine keeps Howard out of down markets 85% of the time, and in for 85% of the good times.</p><p><blockquote>你不需要一个评级精确市场顶部或底部的系统。相反，买入线让霍华德在85%的时间里远离低迷的市场，在85%的好时光里远离。</blockquote></p><p> “If we can do that consistently, we have superior returns and a less stressful life,” he says. “Being all in during a bad tape is no fun.”</p><p><blockquote>“如果我们能够始终如一地做到这一点，我们就会获得更高的回报和更少的生活压力，”他说。“在一盘糟糕的磁带中全力以赴一点也不好玩。”</blockquote></p><p> His system is slow to get him out of the market, but quick to get him back in. Not even a 10% correction will necessarily move him out. He’s often buying those pullbacks. Getting back in fast makes sense, because recoveries off bottoms tend to happen fast.</p><p><blockquote>他的系统让他退出市场很慢，但让他回来很快。即使是10%的修正也不一定能让他出局。他经常买入那些回调。快速反弹是有意义的，因为从底部恢复往往会很快。</blockquote></p><p> “The HCM-BuyLine takes all the emotion out of the process,” says Howard.</p><p><blockquote>“HCM-BuyLine消除了整个过程中的所有情绪，”霍华德说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #3: Don’t fight the tape</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三课：不要和磁带作对</b></blockquote></p><p> This concept is one of the core pieces of wisdom from Marty Zweig’s classic book, “Winning on Wall Street.”</p><p><blockquote>这一概念是马蒂·茨威格经典著作《在华尔街获胜》中的核心智慧之一。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “You have to stay on the right side of market,” agrees Howard. “If you try to trade long in a bad market, it is painful.”</p><p><blockquote>“你必须站在市场的正确一边，”霍华德表示同意。“如果你试图在糟糕的市场中做多，那是很痛苦的。”</blockquote></p><p> In other words, don’t try to be a hero.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，不要试图成为英雄。</blockquote></p><p> “Sometimes, not losing money is where you want to be,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“有时候，不赔钱才是你想要的，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, don’t turn cautious just because the market hits new highs — like now. You should love new highs, because it is a sign of market strength that may likely endure.</p><p><blockquote>同样，不要仅仅因为市场创下新高就变得谨慎——就像现在这样。你应该喜欢新高，因为这是市场力量的标志，可能会持续下去。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #4: Keep it simple</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第四课：保持简单</b></blockquote></p><p> As you’ll see below, Howard doesn’t use esoteric instruments such as derivatives, swaps or index options. He doesn’t even trade foreign stocks or currencies. This is refreshing for individual investors, because we have a harder time accessing those tools.</p><p><blockquote>正如您将在下面看到的，霍华德不使用衍生品、掉期或指数期权等深奥工具。他甚至不交易外国股票或货币。这对个人投资者来说令人耳目一新，因为我们更难获得这些工具。</blockquote></p><p> “You don’t have to trade crazy stuff,” he says. “You can trade plain-vanilla ETFs and beat everybody out there.”</p><p><blockquote>“你不必交易疯狂的东西，”他说。“你可以交易普通的ETF并击败所有人。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #5: How to trade the current market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第5课：如何交易当前市场</b></blockquote></p><p> First, be long.</p><p><blockquote>首先，做长。</blockquote></p><p> “The HCM-BuyLine is very positive. We are 100% in,” says Howard. “The market is broadening out. It is getting pretty exciting. We do not see it turn around any time soon. We are buying pullbacks.”</p><p><blockquote>“HCM-购买线非常积极。我们100%参与，”霍华德说。“市场正在扩大。它变得相当令人兴奋。我们认为它不会很快好转。我们正在买入回调。”</blockquote></p><p> One bullish signal is all the cash on the sidelines. “If there is any relief in Covid, we may see a big rally. We may end up with a great fall [season].”</p><p><blockquote>一个看涨信号是所有现金都在观望。“如果新冠疫情有所缓解，我们可能会看到大幅反弹。我们可能会以一个伟大的秋季[季节]结束。”</blockquote></p><p> Howard uses momentum indicators to select stocks and ETFs, too. For sectors he favors the following.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德也使用动量指标来选择股票和ETF。对于行业，他倾向于以下几点。</blockquote></p><p> He likes health care, tradable through the iShares US HealthcareIYH,-0.04%and ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL,+0.12%ETFs. He’s turning more bullish on biotech, which he plays via the iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB,-0.11%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢医疗保健，可通过iShares US HealthcareIYH(-0.04%)和ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL(+0.12%)ETF进行交易。他变得更加看好生物技术，他通过iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB进行投资，-0.11%。</blockquote></p><p> He likes consumer discretionary tradable through the iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC,-0.30%,and airlines via US Global JetsJETS,-1.17%.He also likes tech exposure via the Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ,+0.31%,iShares US TechnologyIYW,+0.50%and iShares SemiconductorSOXX,+0.75%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢通过iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC(-0.30%)进行交易的非必需消费品，以及通过US Global JetsJETS(-1.17%)进行交易的航空公司。他还喜欢通过Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ(+0.31%)、iShares US TechnologyIYW(+0.50%)进行科技投资和iShares半导体SOXX，+0.75%。</blockquote></p><p> He likes small-caps via the Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK,+0.07%.And convertible bonds via SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Convertible SecuritiesCWB,+0.64%and iShares Convertible BondICVT,+0.37%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK，+0.07%的小盘股。以及SPDR Bloomberg Barclays可转换证券CWB，+0.64%和iShares可转换债券ICVT，+0.37%的可转换债券。</blockquote></p><p> As for individual names, he singles out MicrosoftMSFT,-0.00%and AppleAAPL,+0.42%in tech, as well as Amazon.comAMZN,+0.43%and TeslaTSLA,+0.16%.</p><p><blockquote>至于个人名称，他特别提到了科技股中的微软MSFT(-0.00%)和苹果AAPL(+0.42%)，以及亚马逊MAMZN(+0.43%)和特斯拉TSLA(+0.16%)。</blockquote></p><p> Also consider Howard’s two ETFs: The HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH,+0.62%and HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH,+1.32%.</p><p><blockquote>另请考虑Howard的两只ETF：HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH，+0.62%和HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH，+1.32%。</blockquote></p><p> He prefers to add to holdings on 1%-3% dips.</p><p><blockquote>他更喜欢在下跌1%-3%时增持。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A few drawbacks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一些缺点</b></blockquote></p><p> His HCM Tactical Growth fund has a history of posting two-year stretches of underperformance of 1.5% to 8.8%, since it was launched in 2015. The fund then came roaring back to net the very positive five-year outperformance cited above. Investing in his system can require patience.</p><p><blockquote>他的HCM战术增长基金自2015年推出以来，曾连续两年表现不佳，涨幅为1.5%至8.8%。随后，该基金卷土重来，实现了上述非常积极的五年优异表现。投资他的系统需要耐心。</blockquote></p><p> Every manager, including Warren Buffett, can have a stretch of underperformance, says Howard.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德说，每个经理人，包括沃伦·巴菲特，都可能有一段时间表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> “We are in the odds game,” he says. “Even in the odds game, you can have a bad hand or two thrown at you.”</p><p><blockquote>“我们正处于赔率游戏中，”他说。“即使在赔率游戏中，你也可能会遇到一两手糟糕的牌。”</blockquote></p><p> Another challenge is the high turnover, which is 140% a year for Tactical Growth. This means Uncle Sam takes a big cut in the good years. So if you buy Howard’s funds, you may want to do so in a tax-protected account.</p><p><blockquote>另一个挑战是高流动率，战术增长每年140%。这意味着山姆大叔在好年景中会得到很大的提成。因此，如果您购买霍华德的基金，您可能希望在避税账户中购买。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/beat-the-market-with-this-quant-system-thats-very-bullish-on-stocks-at-record-highs-11630761531?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/beat-the-market-with-this-quant-system-thats-very-bullish-on-stocks-at-record-highs-11630761531?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157895022","content_text":"Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do so. So far his team of computer scientists’ strategy has paid off.\n\nImagine you had a money-making machine to harvest gains in the stock market while you sat back to enjoy life.\nThat’s everyone’s dream, right? Investor Vance Howard thinks he’s found it.\nHoward and his small army of computer programmers atHoward Capital Managementin Roswell, Ga., have a quantitative system that posts great returns.\nHis HCM Tactical Growth Fund HCMGX,+0.35%beats its Russell 1000 benchmark index and large-blend fund category by 8.5-10.4 percentage points annualized over the past five years, according to Morningstar. That is no small feat, and not only because it has to overcome a 2.22% fee. Beating the market is simply not easy. His HCM Dividend Sector PlusHCMQX,-0.05%) and HCM Income PlusHCMLX,+0.30%funds post similar outperformance.\nThere are drawbacks, which I detail below. (Among them: Potentially long stretches of underperformance and regular tax bills.) But first, what can we learn from this winner?\nSo-called quants never share all the details of their proprietary systems, but Howard shares a lot, as you’ll see. And this Texas rancher has a lot of good advice based on “horse sense” — not surprising, given his infectious passion for the markets, and his three decades of experience as a pro.\nHere are five lessons, 12 exchange traded funds (ETFs) and four stocks to consider, from a recent interview with him.\nLesson #1: Don’t be emotional\nIt’s no surprise so many people do poorly in the market. Evolution has programmed us to fail. For survival, we’ve learned to run from things that frightens us. And crave more of things that are pleasurable — like sweets or fats to store calories ahead of what might be a long stretch without food. But in the market, acting on the emotions of fear and greed invariably make us do the wrong thing at the wrong time. Sell at the bottom, buy at the top.\nLikewise, we’re programmed to believe being with the crowd brings safety. If you’re a zebra on the Savanna, you are more likely to get picked off by a predator if you go it alone. The problem here is being part of a crowd — and crowd psychology — dumb us down to a purely emotional level. This is why people in crowds do terrible things they would never do on their own. It doesn’t matter how smart you are. When you join a crowd, you lose a lot of IQ points. Base emotions take over.\nTo do well in the market, you have to counteract these tendencies. “One of the biggest mistakes individual investors and money managers make is getting emotional,” says Howard. “Let your emotions go.”\nLesson #2: Have a system and stick to it\nTo exorcise emotion, have a system. “And don’t second guess it,” says Howard. “This keeps you from letting the pandemic or Afghanistan scare you out of the market.” He calls his system the HCM-BuyLine. It is basically a momentum and trend-following system — which often works well in the markets.\nThe HCM-BuyLine basically works like this. First, rather than use the S&P 500SPX,-0.03%or the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.21%,Howard blends several stock indices to create his own index. Then he uses a moving average that tells him whether the market is in an uptrend or downtrend.\nWhen the moving average drops 3.5%, he sells 35%. If it drops 6.5%, he sells another 35%. He rarely goes to 100% cash.\n“If the BuyLine is positive, we will stay long no matter what,” he says. “We take all the emotion out of the equation by letting the math decide.”\nRight now, it’s bullish. (More on this below.)\nYour system also has to tell you when to get back in.\n“That’s where most people screw up,” he says. “They get out of the market, and they don’t know when to get back in.” The HCM-BuyLine gives a buy signal when his custom index trades above its moving average for six consecutive sessions, and then goes on to trade above the high hit during those six days.\nYou don’t need a system that calls exact market tops or bottoms. Instead, the BuyLine keeps Howard out of down markets 85% of the time, and in for 85% of the good times.\n“If we can do that consistently, we have superior returns and a less stressful life,” he says. “Being all in during a bad tape is no fun.”\nHis system is slow to get him out of the market, but quick to get him back in. Not even a 10% correction will necessarily move him out. He’s often buying those pullbacks. Getting back in fast makes sense, because recoveries off bottoms tend to happen fast.\n“The HCM-BuyLine takes all the emotion out of the process,” says Howard.\nLesson #3: Don’t fight the tape\nThis concept is one of the core pieces of wisdom from Marty Zweig’s classic book, “Winning on Wall Street.”\n“You have to stay on the right side of market,” agrees Howard. “If you try to trade long in a bad market, it is painful.”\nIn other words, don’t try to be a hero.\n“Sometimes, not losing money is where you want to be,” he says.\nLikewise, don’t turn cautious just because the market hits new highs — like now. You should love new highs, because it is a sign of market strength that may likely endure.\nLesson #4: Keep it simple\nAs you’ll see below, Howard doesn’t use esoteric instruments such as derivatives, swaps or index options. He doesn’t even trade foreign stocks or currencies. This is refreshing for individual investors, because we have a harder time accessing those tools.\n“You don’t have to trade crazy stuff,” he says. “You can trade plain-vanilla ETFs and beat everybody out there.”\nLesson #5: How to trade the current market\nFirst, be long.\n“The HCM-BuyLine is very positive. We are 100% in,” says Howard. “The market is broadening out. It is getting pretty exciting. We do not see it turn around any time soon. We are buying pullbacks.”\nOne bullish signal is all the cash on the sidelines. “If there is any relief in Covid, we may see a big rally. We may end up with a great fall [season].”\nHoward uses momentum indicators to select stocks and ETFs, too. For sectors he favors the following.\nHe likes health care, tradable through the iShares US HealthcareIYH,-0.04%and ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL,+0.12%ETFs. He’s turning more bullish on biotech, which he plays via the iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB,-0.11%.\nHe likes consumer discretionary tradable through the iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC,-0.30%,and airlines via US Global JetsJETS,-1.17%.He also likes tech exposure via the Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ,+0.31%,iShares US TechnologyIYW,+0.50%and iShares SemiconductorSOXX,+0.75%.\nHe likes small-caps via the Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK,+0.07%.And convertible bonds via SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Convertible SecuritiesCWB,+0.64%and iShares Convertible BondICVT,+0.37%.\nAs for individual names, he singles out MicrosoftMSFT,-0.00%and AppleAAPL,+0.42%in tech, as well as Amazon.comAMZN,+0.43%and TeslaTSLA,+0.16%.\nAlso consider Howard’s two ETFs: The HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH,+0.62%and HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH,+1.32%.\nHe prefers to add to holdings on 1%-3% dips.\nA few drawbacks\nHis HCM Tactical Growth fund has a history of posting two-year stretches of underperformance of 1.5% to 8.8%, since it was launched in 2015. The fund then came roaring back to net the very positive five-year outperformance cited above. Investing in his system can require patience.\nEvery manager, including Warren Buffett, can have a stretch of underperformance, says Howard.\n“We are in the odds game,” he says. “Even in the odds game, you can have a bad hand or two thrown at you.”\nAnother challenge is the high turnover, which is 140% a year for Tactical Growth. This means Uncle Sam takes a big cut in the good years. So if you buy Howard’s funds, you may want to do so in a tax-protected account.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2736,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":819587501,"gmtCreate":1630077675203,"gmtModify":1704955690451,"author":{"id":"3555306185724245","authorId":"3555306185724245","name":"starrys","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5fdf02892a55030cf24ff3c4a3678c0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555306185724245","idStr":"3555306185724245"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Power la","listText":"Power la","text":"Power la","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/819587501","repostId":"1199074003","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199074003","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1630077382,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199074003?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-27 23:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Crypto stocks surged in morning trading<blockquote>加密货币股票早盘飙升</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199074003","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Crypto stocks surged in morning trading.Bit Digital,Marathon Digital,Riot Blockchain,SoS Ltd,Square,","content":"<p>Crypto stocks surged in morning trading.Bit Digital,Marathon Digital,Riot Blockchain,SoS Ltd,Square,Coinbase and Paypal climbed between 1% and 13%.</p><p><blockquote>加密货币股票在早盘交易中飙升。Bit Digital、Marathon Digital、Riot Blockchain、SoS Ltd、Square、Coinbase和Paypal股价上涨1%至13%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67735af69f95f6a88ee67ae3737e58c0\" tg-width=\"364\" tg-height=\"715\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Crypto stocks surged in morning trading<blockquote>加密货币股票早盘飙升</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCrypto stocks surged in morning trading<blockquote>加密货币股票早盘飙升</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-27 23:16</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Crypto stocks surged in morning trading.Bit Digital,Marathon Digital,Riot Blockchain,SoS Ltd,Square,Coinbase and Paypal climbed between 1% and 13%.</p><p><blockquote>加密货币股票在早盘交易中飙升。Bit Digital、Marathon Digital、Riot Blockchain、SoS Ltd、Square、Coinbase和Paypal股价上涨1%至13%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67735af69f95f6a88ee67ae3737e58c0\" tg-width=\"364\" tg-height=\"715\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","NCTY":"第九城市","RIOT":"Riot Platforms","MARA":"MARA Holdings","BTBT":"Bit Digital, Inc.","SOS":"SOS Limited","EBON":"亿邦国际","CAN":"嘉楠科技"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199074003","content_text":"Crypto stocks surged in morning trading.Bit Digital,Marathon Digital,Riot Blockchain,SoS Ltd,Square,Coinbase and Paypal climbed between 1% and 13%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NCTY":0.9,"MARA":0.9,"BTCM":0.9,"SQ":0.9,"CAN":0.9,"EBON":0.9,"COIN":0.9,"RIOT":0.9,"BTBT":0.9,"SOS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1967,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":838181309,"gmtCreate":1629380850101,"gmtModify":1631884235268,"author":{"id":"3555306185724245","authorId":"3555306185724245","name":"starrys","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5fdf02892a55030cf24ff3c4a3678c0","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3555306185724245","idStr":"3555306185724245"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"China treat investor badly 😭","listText":"China treat investor badly 😭","text":"China treat investor badly 😭","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/838181309","repostId":"1127010631","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127010631","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1629380357,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127010631?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-19 21:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Some China concepts stocks tumbled in morning trading<blockquote>部分中概股早盘暴跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127010631","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(Aug 19) Some China concepts stocks tumbled in morning trading. \nChinese technology stocks sold off,","content":"<p>(Aug 19) Some China concepts stocks tumbled in morning trading. </p><p><blockquote>（8月19日）部分中概股早盘暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> Chinese technology stocks sold off, led by some of the country’s Internet giants, after two government ministries said they were likely to impose additional regulations on the sector.</p><p><blockquote>在两个政府部门表示可能对该行业实施额外监管后，中国科技股遭到抛售，其中一些互联网巨头领跌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4310f534d8b053edff53a4c9e0acd6f\" tg-width=\"275\" tg-height=\"766\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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