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- friesfries
  ·2021-09-20
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  Toplines Before US Market Open on Monday
  (Sept 20) U.S. stock futures sold off Monday morning, tracking declines in overseas equities as inve
  Toplines Before US Market Open on Monday
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- friesfries
  ·2021-09-17
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  S&P ends modestly lower as rising Treasury yields offset robust retail data
  NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 ended slightly down on Thursday, paring losses in late trading afte
  S&P ends modestly lower as rising Treasury yields offset robust retail data
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- friesfries
  ·2021-09-16
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  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- friesfries
  ·2021-09-09
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  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- friesfries
  ·2021-09-07
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  Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?
  What a year this has been for the markets!Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and a mostly receding pandemic, theS&P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnin
  Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?
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- friesfries
  ·2021-09-05
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  Beat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs
  Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do
  Beat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs
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- friesfries
  ·2021-09-04
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  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- friesfries
  ·2021-09-02
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  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- friesfries
  ·2021-09-01
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  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- friesfries
  ·2021-08-31
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  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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pls","listText":"like pls","text":"like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/860371298","repostId":"1130418583","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130418583","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1632138209,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1130418583?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-20 19:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Monday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130418583","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(Sept 20) U.S. stock futures sold off Monday morning, tracking declines in overseas equities as inve","content":"<p>(Sept 20)&nbsp;U.S. stock futures sold off Monday morning, tracking declines in overseas equities as investors nervously eyed the potential ripple effects of the default of a major Chinese real estate company and ongoing debates over the debt limit in Washington.</p>\n<p>At 07:47 a.m. ET,&nbsp;Dow futures sank by more than 600 points, or 1.79%, in early trading. S&amp;P 500 futures also dropped by more than 1%, adding to losses from last week. The CBOE Volatility Index, or Vix (^VIX), jumped by more than 30% as a confluence of concerns roiled markets.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8c25019026526b24ae7ba8fd17ac289\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"503\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>Stocks making the biggest moves premarket</b></p>\n<p>1)&nbsp;China Evergrande Group—&nbsp;Chinese property giant&nbsp;Evergrande tumbled more than 10% on Hong Kong Stock Exchange, spooking Asian markets.&nbsp;The company has been scrambling to pay its suppliers, and warned investors twice in as many weeks that it could default on its debts. Last week Evergrande said its property sales will likely continue to drop significantly in September after declining for months.</p>\n<p><b>2)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a></b> — The pharmaceutical giantsaid Mondaythat trials showed its Covid vaccine was safe and effective when used in children ages 5 to 11. Pfizer and partner BioNTech said they would submit the results for approval “as soon as possible.” Shares of Pfizer were down about 1% in premarket trading.</p>\n<p><b>3)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LPI\">Laredo</a> ,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Occidental</a></b> — Oil and energy stocks dipped in premarket trading on Monday. The SPDR S&amp;P Oil &amp; Gas Exploration ETF is down more than 3% in early trading, on pace for its 3rd straight negative session. Laredo Petroleum is down more than 8%, Callon Petroleum is down roughly 6%, and Occidental Petroleum is down nearly 5%. The losses came as crude oil fell on fears of a global economic slowdown tied to the China property market.</p>\n<p><b>4)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CL\">Colgate-Palmolive</a></b> — The consumer staples stock wasupgradedto buy from hold by Deutsche Bank on Sunday. The investment firm said that Colgate’s difficulties with inflation and in some international markets was already priced in to its stock.</p>\n<p>5)&nbsp;JPMorgan,&nbsp;Bank of America— Bank stocks slid in unison amid a decline in bond yields on slowdown fears. Investors flocked to Treasurys for safety as the stock market is set for its biggest sell-off in months. Big bank stocks took a hit as the falling rates may crimp profits. Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase were each down more than 2% in premarket trading. Citizens Financial Group dropped 3%, while Citigroup declined 2.5%.</p>\n<p><b>6)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AZNCF\">AstraZeneca Plc</a></b> — The United Kingdom-based pharmaceutical company announced on Monday that its breast cancer drug Enhertu showed positive results in a phase-three trial. Shares of the company were up more than 1% in premarket trading.</p>\n<p><b>7)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">ARK Innovation ETF</a> </b>— Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF is down 2.75% in the premarket, on pace to snap a 3-day winning streak. Compugen, DraftKings, Coinbase and Square are so of the ETF’s biggest losers this morning.</p>\n<p>Some investors believe this is just normal market action that can occur in September.</p>\n<p>“The reasons for drop this morning are the same as last week: China concerns (Evergrande, regulation, COVID), Fed tapering and possible tax hikes, but nothing new occurred this weekend to justify this mornings’ declines,” Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report, said in a note.</p>\n<p>Other risky assets declined on Monday.Bitcoinlost 8% tobelow $44,000.</p>\n<p>Most commodities were in the red.Goldwas among the few assets in the green, adding 0.5% to $1,760.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Monday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Monday\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-09-20 19:43</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Sept 20)&nbsp;U.S. stock futures sold off Monday morning, tracking declines in overseas equities as investors nervously eyed the potential ripple effects of the default of a major Chinese real estate company and ongoing debates over the debt limit in Washington.</p>\n<p>At 07:47 a.m. ET,&nbsp;Dow futures sank by more than 600 points, or 1.79%, in early trading. S&amp;P 500 futures also dropped by more than 1%, adding to losses from last week. The CBOE Volatility Index, or Vix (^VIX), jumped by more than 30% as a confluence of concerns roiled markets.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8c25019026526b24ae7ba8fd17ac289\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"503\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>Stocks making the biggest moves premarket</b></p>\n<p>1)&nbsp;China Evergrande Group—&nbsp;Chinese property giant&nbsp;Evergrande tumbled more than 10% on Hong Kong Stock Exchange, spooking Asian markets.&nbsp;The company has been scrambling to pay its suppliers, and warned investors twice in as many weeks that it could default on its debts. Last week Evergrande said its property sales will likely continue to drop significantly in September after declining for months.</p>\n<p><b>2)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a></b> — The pharmaceutical giantsaid Mondaythat trials showed its Covid vaccine was safe and effective when used in children ages 5 to 11. Pfizer and partner BioNTech said they would submit the results for approval “as soon as possible.” Shares of Pfizer were down about 1% in premarket trading.</p>\n<p><b>3)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LPI\">Laredo</a> ,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Occidental</a></b> — Oil and energy stocks dipped in premarket trading on Monday. The SPDR S&amp;P Oil &amp; Gas Exploration ETF is down more than 3% in early trading, on pace for its 3rd straight negative session. Laredo Petroleum is down more than 8%, Callon Petroleum is down roughly 6%, and Occidental Petroleum is down nearly 5%. The losses came as crude oil fell on fears of a global economic slowdown tied to the China property market.</p>\n<p><b>4)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CL\">Colgate-Palmolive</a></b> — The consumer staples stock wasupgradedto buy from hold by Deutsche Bank on Sunday. The investment firm said that Colgate’s difficulties with inflation and in some international markets was already priced in to its stock.</p>\n<p>5)&nbsp;JPMorgan,&nbsp;Bank of America— Bank stocks slid in unison amid a decline in bond yields on slowdown fears. Investors flocked to Treasurys for safety as the stock market is set for its biggest sell-off in months. Big bank stocks took a hit as the falling rates may crimp profits. Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase were each down more than 2% in premarket trading. Citizens Financial Group dropped 3%, while Citigroup declined 2.5%.</p>\n<p><b>6)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AZNCF\">AstraZeneca Plc</a></b> — The United Kingdom-based pharmaceutical company announced on Monday that its breast cancer drug Enhertu showed positive results in a phase-three trial. Shares of the company were up more than 1% in premarket trading.</p>\n<p><b>7)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">ARK Innovation ETF</a> </b>— Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF is down 2.75% in the premarket, on pace to snap a 3-day winning streak. Compugen, DraftKings, Coinbase and Square are so of the ETF’s biggest losers this morning.</p>\n<p>Some investors believe this is just normal market action that can occur in September.</p>\n<p>“The reasons for drop this morning are the same as last week: China concerns (Evergrande, regulation, COVID), Fed tapering and possible tax hikes, but nothing new occurred this weekend to justify this mornings’ declines,” Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report, said in a note.</p>\n<p>Other risky assets declined on Monday.Bitcoinlost 8% tobelow $44,000.</p>\n<p>Most commodities were in the red.Goldwas among the few assets in the green, adding 0.5% to $1,760.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130418583","content_text":"(Sept 20) U.S. stock futures sold off Monday morning, tracking declines in overseas equities as investors nervously eyed the potential ripple effects of the default of a major Chinese real estate company and ongoing debates over the debt limit in Washington.\nAt 07:47 a.m. ET, Dow futures sank by more than 600 points, or 1.79%, in early trading. S&P 500 futures also dropped by more than 1%, adding to losses from last week. The CBOE Volatility Index, or Vix (^VIX), jumped by more than 30% as a confluence of concerns roiled markets.\n\nStocks making the biggest moves premarket\n1) China Evergrande Group— Chinese property giant Evergrande tumbled more than 10% on Hong Kong Stock Exchange, spooking Asian markets. The company has been scrambling to pay its suppliers, and warned investors twice in as many weeks that it could default on its debts. Last week Evergrande said its property sales will likely continue to drop significantly in September after declining for months.\n2) Pfizer — The pharmaceutical giantsaid Mondaythat trials showed its Covid vaccine was safe and effective when used in children ages 5 to 11. Pfizer and partner BioNTech said they would submit the results for approval “as soon as possible.” Shares of Pfizer were down about 1% in premarket trading.\n3) Laredo ,Occidental — Oil and energy stocks dipped in premarket trading on Monday. The SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration ETF is down more than 3% in early trading, on pace for its 3rd straight negative session. Laredo Petroleum is down more than 8%, Callon Petroleum is down roughly 6%, and Occidental Petroleum is down nearly 5%. The losses came as crude oil fell on fears of a global economic slowdown tied to the China property market.\n4) Colgate-Palmolive — The consumer staples stock wasupgradedto buy from hold by Deutsche Bank on Sunday. The investment firm said that Colgate’s difficulties with inflation and in some international markets was already priced in to its stock.\n5) JPMorgan, Bank of America— Bank stocks slid in unison amid a decline in bond yields on slowdown fears. Investors flocked to Treasurys for safety as the stock market is set for its biggest sell-off in months. Big bank stocks took a hit as the falling rates may crimp profits. Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase were each down more than 2% in premarket trading. Citizens Financial Group dropped 3%, while Citigroup declined 2.5%.\n6) AstraZeneca Plc — The United Kingdom-based pharmaceutical company announced on Monday that its breast cancer drug Enhertu showed positive results in a phase-three trial. Shares of the company were up more than 1% in premarket trading.\n7) ARK Innovation ETF — Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF is down 2.75% in the premarket, on pace to snap a 3-day winning streak. Compugen, DraftKings, Coinbase and Square are so of the ETF’s biggest losers this morning.\nSome investors believe this is just normal market action that can occur in September.\n“The reasons for drop this morning are the same as last week: China concerns (Evergrande, regulation, COVID), Fed tapering and possible tax hikes, but nothing new occurred this weekend to justify this mornings’ declines,” Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report, said in a note.\nOther risky assets declined on Monday.Bitcoinlost 8% tobelow $44,000.\nMost commodities were in the red.Goldwas among the few assets in the green, adding 0.5% to $1,760.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":406,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":884305239,"gmtCreate":1631852773721,"gmtModify":1631890182784,"author":{"id":"3555327644623732","authorId":"3555327644623732","name":"fries","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d2819af7e077fb1c7244fb2aa5b780","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555327644623732","authorIdStr":"3555327644623732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like pls","listText":"like pls","text":"like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/884305239","repostId":"1105376345","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105376345","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631833833,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1105376345?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-17 07:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P ends modestly lower as rising Treasury yields offset robust retail data","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105376345","media":"Reuters","summary":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 ended slightly down on Thursday, paring losses in late trading afte","content":"<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 ended slightly down on Thursday, paring losses in late trading after unexpectedly strong retail sales data underscored the strength of the U.S. economic recovery.</p>\n<p>The three major indexes spent much of the day in negative territory as rising U.S. Treasury yields pressured market-leading tech stocks, and the rising dollar weighed on exporters.</p>\n<p>Amazon.com Inc, buoyed by solid online sales in the Commerce Department’s report, helped push the Nasdaq into positive territory.</p>\n<p>“Looking at today, clearly we had positive news from retail sales and it looks as if the massive slowdown in the economy is not materializing as a lot of people expected,” said Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist at LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina.</p>\n<p>“It’s a nice reminder that the economy is still taking two steps forward for each step back even amid the COVID concerns,” Detrick added.</p>\n<p>Economically sensitive transports and microchips were among the outperformers.</p>\n<p>Data released before the opening bell showed an unexpected bump in retail sales as shoppers weathered Hurricane Ida and the COVID Delta variant, evidence of resilience in the consumer, who contributes about 70% to U.S. economic growth.</p>\n<p>“Once again, it shows the U.S. consumer continues to spend and continues to help this economy grow,” Detrick said.</p>\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 63.07 points, or 0.18%, to 34,751.32; the S&amp;P 500 lost 6.95 points, or 0.16%, at 4,473.75; and the Nasdaq Composite added 20.40 points, or 0.13%, at 15,181.92.</p>\n<p>Eight of the 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P 500 ended lower, with materials suffering the largest percentage drop.</p>\n<p>The consumer discretionary spending sector posted the biggest gain, with Amazon.com doing the heavy lifting.</p>\n<p>Apparel company Gap Inc gained 1.6%. Online marketplace Etsy Inc and luxury accessory company Tapestry Inc rose 3.1% and 1.9%, respectively.</p>\n<p>Ford Motor Co rose 1.4% after it announced plans to boost production of its F-150 electric pickup model.</p>\n<p>Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.27-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.06-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 posted nine new 52-week highs and one new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 82 new highs and 94 new lows.</p>\n<p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 9.37 billion shares, compared with the 9.44 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P ends modestly lower as rising Treasury yields offset robust retail data</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P ends modestly lower as rising Treasury yields offset robust retail data\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-17 07:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/us-stocks-sp-ends-modestly-lower-as-rising-treasury-yields-offset-robust-retail-data-idUSL1N2QI2MB><strong>Reuters</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 ended slightly down on Thursday, paring losses in late trading after unexpectedly strong retail sales data underscored the strength of the U.S. economic recovery.\nThe ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/us-stocks-sp-ends-modestly-lower-as-rising-treasury-yields-offset-robust-retail-data-idUSL1N2QI2MB\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/us-stocks-sp-ends-modestly-lower-as-rising-treasury-yields-offset-robust-retail-data-idUSL1N2QI2MB","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105376345","content_text":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 ended slightly down on Thursday, paring losses in late trading after unexpectedly strong retail sales data underscored the strength of the U.S. economic recovery.\nThe three major indexes spent much of the day in negative territory as rising U.S. Treasury yields pressured market-leading tech stocks, and the rising dollar weighed on exporters.\nAmazon.com Inc, buoyed by solid online sales in the Commerce Department’s report, helped push the Nasdaq into positive territory.\n“Looking at today, clearly we had positive news from retail sales and it looks as if the massive slowdown in the economy is not materializing as a lot of people expected,” said Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist at LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina.\n“It’s a nice reminder that the economy is still taking two steps forward for each step back even amid the COVID concerns,” Detrick added.\nEconomically sensitive transports and microchips were among the outperformers.\nData released before the opening bell showed an unexpected bump in retail sales as shoppers weathered Hurricane Ida and the COVID Delta variant, evidence of resilience in the consumer, who contributes about 70% to U.S. economic growth.\n“Once again, it shows the U.S. consumer continues to spend and continues to help this economy grow,” Detrick said.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 63.07 points, or 0.18%, to 34,751.32; the S&P 500 lost 6.95 points, or 0.16%, at 4,473.75; and the Nasdaq Composite added 20.40 points, or 0.13%, at 15,181.92.\nEight of the 11 major sectors in the S&P 500 ended lower, with materials suffering the largest percentage drop.\nThe consumer discretionary spending sector posted the biggest gain, with Amazon.com doing the heavy lifting.\nApparel company Gap Inc gained 1.6%. Online marketplace Etsy Inc and luxury accessory company Tapestry Inc rose 3.1% and 1.9%, respectively.\nFord Motor Co rose 1.4% after it announced plans to boost production of its F-150 electric pickup model.\nDeclining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.27-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.06-to-1 ratio favored advancers.\nThe S&P 500 posted nine new 52-week highs and one new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 82 new highs and 94 new lows.\nVolume on U.S. exchanges was 9.37 billion shares, compared with the 9.44 billion average over the last 20 trading days.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":437,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":885169326,"gmtCreate":1631765540465,"gmtModify":1631890182789,"author":{"id":"3555327644623732","authorId":"3555327644623732","name":"fries","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d2819af7e077fb1c7244fb2aa5b780","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555327644623732","authorIdStr":"3555327644623732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like pls","listText":"like pls","text":"like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/885169326","repostId":"2167592712","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":425,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":889715849,"gmtCreate":1631178366081,"gmtModify":1631890182790,"author":{"id":"3555327644623732","authorId":"3555327644623732","name":"fries","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d2819af7e077fb1c7244fb2aa5b780","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555327644623732","authorIdStr":"3555327644623732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like pls","listText":"like pls","text":"like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/889715849","repostId":"2166717319","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":747,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880390659,"gmtCreate":1631017236671,"gmtModify":1631890182792,"author":{"id":"3555327644623732","authorId":"3555327644623732","name":"fries","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d2819af7e077fb1c7244fb2aa5b780","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555327644623732","authorIdStr":"3555327644623732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like pls","listText":"like pls","text":"like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880390659","repostId":"1130130857","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130130857","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631007146,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1130130857?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-07 17:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130130857","media":"Barron's","summary":"What a year this has been for the markets!Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and  a mostly receding pandemic, theS&P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnin","content":"<p>What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&amp;P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.</p>\n<p>Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.</p>\n<p>In other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”</p>\n<p>That’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whom<i>Barron’s</i>recently consulted. All see the S&amp;P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.</p>\n<p>Next year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&amp;P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb61c7b74b9b0f18a019afb4ac44ad59\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.</p>\n<p>The stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.</p>\n<p>Fed Chairman Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”</p>\n<p>The government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2cb76c498c1c4c980139e3d0514c261\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.</p>\n<p>A budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6693da658db16059fc99e08a7531675f\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Other politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> shutdown in October.</p>\n<p>For now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.</p>\n<p>Inflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.</p>\n<p>“We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”</p>\n<p>The strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for&nbsp;the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.</p>\n<p>Rising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&amp;P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e08d24cb421d7cc13debd76a9c6fea01\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>As long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&amp;P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.</p>\n<p>If yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">State</a> Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ff6490069ab5dc1b4057f1ff7966f3\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Wilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says</p>\n<p>If 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”</p>\n<p>Some P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&amp;P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.</p>\n<p>A potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.</p>\n<p>An increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&amp;P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-time event for the market, some strategists predict.</p>\n<p>These concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.</p>\n<blockquote>\n “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets\n</blockquote>\n<p>The State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.</p>\n<p>RBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.</p>\n<p>“Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”</p>\n<p>But the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.</p>\n<p>“The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”</p>\n<p><b>A Shopping List for Fall</b></p>\n<p>Most strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54c4bd114c1a5f7f700d1fc14d30d8e\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Although stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a> analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.</p>\n<p>“We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”</p>\n<p>He recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.</p>\n<p>For <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.</p>\n<p>“There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”</p>\n<p>Harvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(BAC),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">Northern</a> Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a> Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).</p>\n<p>Overall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.</p>\n<p>“We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.</p>\n<p>Cheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare</a> stocks also have some fans. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">Healthcare</a> has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a> analysts and fitting his macro views.</p>\n<p>Nuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.</p>\n<p>Malik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.</p>\n<p>Both stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">AbbVie</a>’s most promising post-Humira products.</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>(PFE),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>(AXP),Johnson &amp; Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&amp;P 500 members that pass a<i>Barron’s</i>screen for quality attributes.</p>\n<p>After a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> be more selective. And go with quality.</p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStrategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-07 17:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-could-struggle-this-fall-market-strategists-say-stick-with-quality-companies-51630699840?siteid=yhoof2><strong>Barron's</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&P 500stock index has...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-could-struggle-this-fall-market-strategists-say-stick-with-quality-companies-51630699840?siteid=yhoof2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-could-struggle-this-fall-market-strategists-say-stick-with-quality-companies-51630699840?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130130857","content_text":"What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.\nTailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.\nIn other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”\nThat’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whomBarron’srecently consulted. All see the S&P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.\nNext year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.\nWith stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.\nThe stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.\nFed Chairman Jerome Powell has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”\nThe government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.\nThe bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.\nA budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.\nOther politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a Washington shutdown in October.\nFor now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.\nInflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.\n“We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”\nThe strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.\nRising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.\n\nAs long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.\nIf yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says State Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”\n\nWilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says\nIf 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”\nSome P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.\nA potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.\nAn increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a one-time event for the market, some strategists predict.\nThese concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.\n\n “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets\n\nThe State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.\nRBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.\n“Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”\nBut the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.\n“The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”\nA Shopping List for Fall\nMost strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.\n\nAlthough stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a BlackRock analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.\n“We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”\nHe recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.\nFor Wells Fargo’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.\n“There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”\nHarvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),Bank of America(BAC),Northern Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),IQVIA Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).\nOverall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.\n“We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.\nCheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.\nHealthcare stocks also have some fans. “Healthcare has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by Morgan Stanley analysts and fitting his macro views.\nNuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.\nMalik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.\nBoth stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of AbbVie’s most promising post-Humira products.\nPfizer(PFE),American Express(AXP),Johnson & Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&P 500 members that pass aBarron’sscreen for quality attributes.\nAfter a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. Just be more selective. And go with quality.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":572,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":814549635,"gmtCreate":1630850455727,"gmtModify":1631890182799,"author":{"id":"3555327644623732","authorId":"3555327644623732","name":"fries","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d2819af7e077fb1c7244fb2aa5b780","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555327644623732","authorIdStr":"3555327644623732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like pls","listText":"like pls","text":"like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/814549635","repostId":"1157895022","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157895022","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630810619,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157895022?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-05 10:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Beat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157895022","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do ","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do so. So far his team of computer scientists’ strategy has paid off.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Imagine you had a money-making machine to harvest gains in the stock market while you sat back to enjoy life.</p>\n<p>That’s everyone’s dream, right? Investor Vance Howard thinks he’s found it.</p>\n<p>Howard and his small army of computer programmers atHoward Capital Managementin Roswell, Ga., have a quantitative system that posts great returns.</p>\n<p>His HCM Tactical Growth Fund&nbsp;HCMGX,+0.35%beats its Russell 1000&nbsp;benchmark index and large-blend fund category by 8.5-10.4 percentage points annualized over the past five years, according to Morningstar. That is no small feat, and not only because it has to overcome a 2.22% fee. Beating the market is simply not easy. His HCM Dividend Sector PlusHCMQX,-0.05%) and HCM Income PlusHCMLX,+0.30%funds post similar outperformance.</p>\n<p>There are drawbacks, which I detail below. (Among them: Potentially long stretches of underperformance and regular tax bills.) But first, what can we learn from this winner?</p>\n<p>So-called quants never share all the details of their proprietary systems, but Howard shares a lot, as you’ll see. And this Texas rancher has a lot of good advice based on “horse sense” — not surprising, given his infectious passion for the markets, and his three decades of experience as a pro.</p>\n<p>Here are five lessons, 12 exchange traded funds (ETFs) and four stocks to consider, from a recent interview with him.</p>\n<p><b>Lesson #1: Don’t be emotional</b></p>\n<p>It’s no surprise so many people do poorly in the market. Evolution has programmed us to fail. For survival, we’ve learned to run from things that frightens us. And crave more of things that are pleasurable — like sweets or fats to store calories ahead of what might be a long stretch without food. But in the market, acting on the emotions of fear and greed invariably make us do the wrong thing at the wrong time. Sell at the bottom, buy at the top.</p>\n<p>Likewise, we’re programmed to believe being with the crowd brings safety. If you’re a zebra on the Savanna, you are more likely to get picked off by a predator if you go it alone. The problem here is being part of a crowd — and crowd psychology — dumb us down to a purely emotional level. This is why people in crowds do terrible things they would never do on their own. It doesn’t matter how smart you are. When you join a crowd, you lose a lot of IQ points. Base emotions take over.</p>\n<p>To do well in the market, you have to counteract these tendencies. “One of the biggest mistakes individual investors and money managers make is getting emotional,” says Howard. “Let your emotions go.”</p>\n<p><b>Lesson #2: Have a system and stick to it</b></p>\n<p>To exorcise emotion, have a system. “And don’t second guess it,” says Howard. “This keeps you from letting the pandemic or Afghanistan scare you out of the market.” He calls his system the HCM-BuyLine. It is basically a momentum and trend-following system — which often works well in the markets.</p>\n<p>The HCM-BuyLine basically works like this. First, rather than use the S&amp;P 500SPX,-0.03%or the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.21%,Howard blends several stock indices to create his own index. Then he uses a moving average that tells him whether the market is in an uptrend or downtrend.</p>\n<p>When the moving average drops 3.5%, he sells 35%. If it drops 6.5%, he sells another 35%. He rarely goes to 100% cash.</p>\n<p>“If the BuyLine is positive, we will stay long no matter what,” he says. “We take all the emotion out of the equation by letting the math decide.”</p>\n<p>Right now, it’s bullish. (More on this below.)</p>\n<p>Your system also has to tell you when to get back in.</p>\n<p>“That’s where most people screw up,” he says. “They get out of the market, and they don’t know when to get back in.” The HCM-BuyLine gives a buy signal when his custom index trades above its moving average for six consecutive sessions, and then goes on to trade above the high hit during those six days.</p>\n<p>You don’t need a system that calls exact market tops or bottoms. Instead, the BuyLine keeps Howard out of down markets 85% of the time, and in for 85% of the good times.</p>\n<p>“If we can do that consistently, we have superior returns and a less stressful life,” he says. “Being all in during a bad tape is no fun.”</p>\n<p>His system is slow to get him out of the market, but quick to get him back in. Not even a 10% correction will necessarily move him out. He’s often buying those pullbacks. Getting back in fast makes sense, because recoveries off bottoms tend to happen fast.</p>\n<p>“The HCM-BuyLine takes all the emotion out of the process,” says Howard.</p>\n<p><b>Lesson #3: Don’t fight the tape</b></p>\n<p>This concept is one of the core pieces of wisdom from Marty Zweig’s classic book, “Winning on Wall Street.”</p>\n<p>“You have to stay on the right side of market,” agrees Howard. “If you try to trade long in a bad market, it is painful.”</p>\n<p>In other words, don’t try to be a hero.</p>\n<p>“Sometimes, not losing money is where you want to be,” he says.</p>\n<p>Likewise, don’t turn cautious just because the market hits new highs — like now. You should love new highs, because it is a sign of market strength that may likely endure.</p>\n<p><b>Lesson #4: Keep it simple</b></p>\n<p>As you’ll see below, Howard doesn’t use esoteric instruments such as derivatives, swaps or index options. He doesn’t even trade foreign stocks or currencies. This is refreshing for individual investors, because we have a harder time accessing those tools.</p>\n<p>“You don’t have to trade crazy stuff,” he says. “You can trade plain-vanilla ETFs and beat everybody out there.”</p>\n<p><b>Lesson #5: How to trade the current market</b></p>\n<p>First, be long.</p>\n<p>“The HCM-BuyLine is very positive. We are 100% in,” says Howard. “The market is broadening out. It is getting pretty exciting. We do not see it turn around any time soon. We are buying pullbacks.”</p>\n<p>One bullish signal is all the cash on the sidelines. “If there is any relief in Covid, we may see a big rally. We may end up with a great fall [season].”</p>\n<p>Howard uses momentum indicators to select stocks and ETFs, too. For sectors he favors the following.</p>\n<p>He likes health care, tradable through the iShares US HealthcareIYH,-0.04%and ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL,+0.12%ETFs. He’s turning more bullish on biotech, which he plays via the iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB,-0.11%.</p>\n<p>He likes consumer discretionary tradable through the iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC,-0.30%,and airlines via US Global JetsJETS,-1.17%.He also likes tech exposure via the Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ,+0.31%,iShares US TechnologyIYW,+0.50%and&nbsp;iShares SemiconductorSOXX,+0.75%.</p>\n<p>He likes small-caps via the Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK,+0.07%.And convertible bonds via SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Convertible SecuritiesCWB,+0.64%and iShares Convertible BondICVT,+0.37%.</p>\n<p>As for individual names, he singles out MicrosoftMSFT,-0.00%and AppleAAPL,+0.42%in tech, as well as Amazon.comAMZN,+0.43%and TeslaTSLA,+0.16%.</p>\n<p>Also consider Howard’s two ETFs: The HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH,+0.62%and HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH,+1.32%.</p>\n<p>He prefers to add to holdings on 1%-3% dips.</p>\n<p><b>A few drawbacks</b></p>\n<p>His HCM Tactical Growth fund has a history of posting two-year stretches of underperformance of 1.5% to 8.8%, since it was launched in 2015. The fund then came roaring back to net the very positive five-year outperformance cited above. Investing in his system can require patience.</p>\n<p>Every manager, including Warren Buffett, can have a stretch of underperformance, says Howard.</p>\n<p>“We are in the odds game,” he says. “Even in the odds game, you can have a bad hand or two thrown at you.”</p>\n<p>Another challenge is the high turnover, which is 140% a year for Tactical Growth. This means Uncle Sam takes a big cut in the good years. So if you buy Howard’s funds, you may want to do so in a tax-protected account.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Beat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBeat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-05 10:56 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/beat-the-market-with-this-quant-system-thats-very-bullish-on-stocks-at-record-highs-11630761531?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do so. So far his team of computer scientists’ strategy has paid off.\n\nImagine you had a money-making ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/beat-the-market-with-this-quant-system-thats-very-bullish-on-stocks-at-record-highs-11630761531?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/beat-the-market-with-this-quant-system-thats-very-bullish-on-stocks-at-record-highs-11630761531?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157895022","content_text":"Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do so. So far his team of computer scientists’ strategy has paid off.\n\nImagine you had a money-making machine to harvest gains in the stock market while you sat back to enjoy life.\nThat’s everyone’s dream, right? Investor Vance Howard thinks he’s found it.\nHoward and his small army of computer programmers atHoward Capital Managementin Roswell, Ga., have a quantitative system that posts great returns.\nHis HCM Tactical Growth Fund HCMGX,+0.35%beats its Russell 1000 benchmark index and large-blend fund category by 8.5-10.4 percentage points annualized over the past five years, according to Morningstar. That is no small feat, and not only because it has to overcome a 2.22% fee. Beating the market is simply not easy. His HCM Dividend Sector PlusHCMQX,-0.05%) and HCM Income PlusHCMLX,+0.30%funds post similar outperformance.\nThere are drawbacks, which I detail below. (Among them: Potentially long stretches of underperformance and regular tax bills.) But first, what can we learn from this winner?\nSo-called quants never share all the details of their proprietary systems, but Howard shares a lot, as you’ll see. And this Texas rancher has a lot of good advice based on “horse sense” — not surprising, given his infectious passion for the markets, and his three decades of experience as a pro.\nHere are five lessons, 12 exchange traded funds (ETFs) and four stocks to consider, from a recent interview with him.\nLesson #1: Don’t be emotional\nIt’s no surprise so many people do poorly in the market. Evolution has programmed us to fail. For survival, we’ve learned to run from things that frightens us. And crave more of things that are pleasurable — like sweets or fats to store calories ahead of what might be a long stretch without food. But in the market, acting on the emotions of fear and greed invariably make us do the wrong thing at the wrong time. Sell at the bottom, buy at the top.\nLikewise, we’re programmed to believe being with the crowd brings safety. If you’re a zebra on the Savanna, you are more likely to get picked off by a predator if you go it alone. The problem here is being part of a crowd — and crowd psychology — dumb us down to a purely emotional level. This is why people in crowds do terrible things they would never do on their own. It doesn’t matter how smart you are. When you join a crowd, you lose a lot of IQ points. Base emotions take over.\nTo do well in the market, you have to counteract these tendencies. “One of the biggest mistakes individual investors and money managers make is getting emotional,” says Howard. “Let your emotions go.”\nLesson #2: Have a system and stick to it\nTo exorcise emotion, have a system. “And don’t second guess it,” says Howard. “This keeps you from letting the pandemic or Afghanistan scare you out of the market.” He calls his system the HCM-BuyLine. It is basically a momentum and trend-following system — which often works well in the markets.\nThe HCM-BuyLine basically works like this. First, rather than use the S&P 500SPX,-0.03%or the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.21%,Howard blends several stock indices to create his own index. Then he uses a moving average that tells him whether the market is in an uptrend or downtrend.\nWhen the moving average drops 3.5%, he sells 35%. If it drops 6.5%, he sells another 35%. He rarely goes to 100% cash.\n“If the BuyLine is positive, we will stay long no matter what,” he says. “We take all the emotion out of the equation by letting the math decide.”\nRight now, it’s bullish. (More on this below.)\nYour system also has to tell you when to get back in.\n“That’s where most people screw up,” he says. “They get out of the market, and they don’t know when to get back in.” The HCM-BuyLine gives a buy signal when his custom index trades above its moving average for six consecutive sessions, and then goes on to trade above the high hit during those six days.\nYou don’t need a system that calls exact market tops or bottoms. Instead, the BuyLine keeps Howard out of down markets 85% of the time, and in for 85% of the good times.\n“If we can do that consistently, we have superior returns and a less stressful life,” he says. “Being all in during a bad tape is no fun.”\nHis system is slow to get him out of the market, but quick to get him back in. Not even a 10% correction will necessarily move him out. He’s often buying those pullbacks. Getting back in fast makes sense, because recoveries off bottoms tend to happen fast.\n“The HCM-BuyLine takes all the emotion out of the process,” says Howard.\nLesson #3: Don’t fight the tape\nThis concept is one of the core pieces of wisdom from Marty Zweig’s classic book, “Winning on Wall Street.”\n“You have to stay on the right side of market,” agrees Howard. “If you try to trade long in a bad market, it is painful.”\nIn other words, don’t try to be a hero.\n“Sometimes, not losing money is where you want to be,” he says.\nLikewise, don’t turn cautious just because the market hits new highs — like now. You should love new highs, because it is a sign of market strength that may likely endure.\nLesson #4: Keep it simple\nAs you’ll see below, Howard doesn’t use esoteric instruments such as derivatives, swaps or index options. He doesn’t even trade foreign stocks or currencies. This is refreshing for individual investors, because we have a harder time accessing those tools.\n“You don’t have to trade crazy stuff,” he says. “You can trade plain-vanilla ETFs and beat everybody out there.”\nLesson #5: How to trade the current market\nFirst, be long.\n“The HCM-BuyLine is very positive. We are 100% in,” says Howard. “The market is broadening out. It is getting pretty exciting. We do not see it turn around any time soon. We are buying pullbacks.”\nOne bullish signal is all the cash on the sidelines. “If there is any relief in Covid, we may see a big rally. We may end up with a great fall [season].”\nHoward uses momentum indicators to select stocks and ETFs, too. For sectors he favors the following.\nHe likes health care, tradable through the iShares US HealthcareIYH,-0.04%and ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL,+0.12%ETFs. He’s turning more bullish on biotech, which he plays via the iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB,-0.11%.\nHe likes consumer discretionary tradable through the iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC,-0.30%,and airlines via US Global JetsJETS,-1.17%.He also likes tech exposure via the Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ,+0.31%,iShares US TechnologyIYW,+0.50%and iShares SemiconductorSOXX,+0.75%.\nHe likes small-caps via the Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK,+0.07%.And convertible bonds via SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Convertible SecuritiesCWB,+0.64%and iShares Convertible BondICVT,+0.37%.\nAs for individual names, he singles out MicrosoftMSFT,-0.00%and AppleAAPL,+0.42%in tech, as well as Amazon.comAMZN,+0.43%and TeslaTSLA,+0.16%.\nAlso consider Howard’s two ETFs: The HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH,+0.62%and HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH,+1.32%.\nHe prefers to add to holdings on 1%-3% dips.\nA few drawbacks\nHis HCM Tactical Growth fund has a history of posting two-year stretches of underperformance of 1.5% to 8.8%, since it was launched in 2015. The fund then came roaring back to net the very positive five-year outperformance cited above. Investing in his system can require patience.\nEvery manager, including Warren Buffett, can have a stretch of underperformance, says Howard.\n“We are in the odds game,” he says. “Even in the odds game, you can have a bad hand or two thrown at you.”\nAnother challenge is the high turnover, which is 140% a year for Tactical Growth. This means Uncle Sam takes a big cut in the good years. So if you buy Howard’s funds, you may want to do so in a tax-protected account.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":529,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":814334454,"gmtCreate":1630761513178,"gmtModify":1631890182798,"author":{"id":"3555327644623732","authorId":"3555327644623732","name":"fries","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d2819af7e077fb1c7244fb2aa5b780","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555327644623732","authorIdStr":"3555327644623732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like pls","listText":"like pls","text":"like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/814334454","repostId":"1186003479","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":500,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":812178485,"gmtCreate":1630569340447,"gmtModify":1631890182803,"author":{"id":"3555327644623732","authorId":"3555327644623732","name":"fries","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d2819af7e077fb1c7244fb2aa5b780","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555327644623732","authorIdStr":"3555327644623732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like pls","listText":"like pls","text":"like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812178485","repostId":"2164481914","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":642,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":816667390,"gmtCreate":1630498139210,"gmtModify":1631890182804,"author":{"id":"3555327644623732","authorId":"3555327644623732","name":"fries","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d2819af7e077fb1c7244fb2aa5b780","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555327644623732","authorIdStr":"3555327644623732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like pls","listText":"like pls","text":"like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/816667390","repostId":"2164589215","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":577,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":818243166,"gmtCreate":1630416846455,"gmtModify":1631890182805,"author":{"id":"3555327644623732","authorId":"3555327644623732","name":"fries","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4d2819af7e077fb1c7244fb2aa5b780","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3555327644623732","authorIdStr":"3555327644623732"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like pls","listText":"like pls","text":"like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/818243166","repostId":"1129307178","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":579,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}