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- ruuderayruuderay
  ·2021-11-13
  Buy!
  Palantir: Q3 Beat, Increased FCF, Raises Guidance But Sells Off Creating An Opportunity<blockquote>Palantir：第三季度表现良好，自由现金流增加，提高指引但抛售创造了机会</blockquote>
  Summary Palantir delivered revenue growth QoQ of 36% while generating $119 million in FCF creating
  Palantir: Q3 Beat, Increased FCF, Raises Guidance But Sells Off Creating An Opportunity<blockquote>Palantir：第三季度表现良好，自由现金流增加，提高指引但抛售创造了机会</blockquote>
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- ruuderayruuderay
  ·2021-11-09
  It’s down why they say it’s up?
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  2,337 评论
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- ruuderayruuderay
  ·2021-10-23
  pltr
  Palantir Stock Price Prediction: Outlook After U.S. Army Selection<blockquote>Palantir股价预测：美国陆军选择后的展望</blockquote>
  Summary Palantir's US Army contract is huge news for the company due to the contract's large size.
  Palantir Stock Price Prediction: Outlook After U.S. Army Selection<blockquote>Palantir股价预测：美国陆军选择后的展望</blockquote>
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- ruuderayruuderay
  ·2021-10-05
  So how?
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  3,273 评论
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- ruuderayruuderay
  ·2021-09-24
  Need to get profits!
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  2,836 3
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- ruuderayruuderay
  ·2021-09-09
  buy buy buy
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- ruuderayruuderay
  ·2021-09-06
  Oh no
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- ruuderayruuderay
  ·2021-08-19
  Buy!
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,619 2
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- ruuderayruuderay
  ·2021-07-29
  🚀
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- ruuderayruuderay
  ·2021-07-11
  Cool
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  2,789 3
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10:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Q3 Beat, Increased FCF, Raises Guidance But Sells Off Creating An Opportunity<blockquote>Palantir：第三季度表现良好，自由现金流增加，提高指引但抛售创造了机会</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129543601","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPalantir delivered revenue growth QoQ of 36% while generating $119 million in FCF creating ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir delivered revenue growth QoQ of 36% while generating $119 million in FCF creating a 30% margin.</li>  <li>Palantir's commercial revenue increased 37%, and government revenue grew by 34% YoY in Q3 showing strong forward growth trends.</li>  <li>Palantir closed 54 deals in Q3 2021 with at least $1 million in contract value with 33 valued at $5+ million and 18 at $10+ million.</li>  <li>Palantir increases guidance again and expects 40% revenue growth YoY at $1.527 billion and $400 million in FCF up from the previous guidance increase of $300 million.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fd5d395baf412802ef5e554f0efa64b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Andreas Rentz/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir的收入环比增长36%，同时产生1.19亿美元的自由现金流，利润率为30%。</li><li>Palantir第三季度商业收入同比增长37%，政府收入同比增长34%，显示出强劲的前瞻性增长趋势。</li><li>Palantir在2021年第三季度完成了54笔交易，合同价值至少为100万美元，其中33笔价值超过500万美元，18笔价值超过1000万美元。</li><li>Palantir再次上调指引，预计收入同比增长40%，达到15.27亿美元，自由现金流为4亿美元，高于之前指引的3亿美元。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>安德烈亚斯·伦茨/盖蒂图片社娱乐</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Some investors love to hate Palantir (PLTR), which was nicknamed a black box company in the past, while others absolutely love it because they believe PLTR's software is the future. In my previous article on PLTR, I stated that based on PLTR's current revenue trend, they were setting up to deliver $399.41 million in revenue for Q3 and $423.22 million of revenue in Q4. The consensus number was $386.56 million of revenue in Q3, and PLTR delivered $392.1 million and forecasted $418 million in Q4 2021. The reaction in premarket as the earnings call was being conducted was nothing but a sea of red as PLTR sharply declined, and each time a gap tried to fill, the next leg on the downward spiral started. The news wasn't even digested, yet people decided to either take profits, exit their position or lost faith in PLTR.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者又爱又恨Palantir(PLTR)，它过去被昵称为黑匣子公司，而另一些投资者则绝对喜欢它，因为他们相信PLTR的软件是未来。在我之前关于PLTR的文章中，我表示，根据PLTR当前的收入趋势，他们计划在第三季度实现3.9941亿美元的收入，在第四季度实现4.2322亿美元的收入。市场普遍认为第三季度的收入为3.8656亿美元，PLTR在2021年第四季度实现了3.921亿美元，预测为4.18亿美元。当进行盈利看涨期权时，盘前的反应只不过是PLTR急剧下跌的红海，每次试图填补缺口时，螺旋式下降的下一阶段就开始了。这个消息甚至还没有被消化，但人们决定要么获利了结，要么退出头寸，要么对PLTR失去信心。</blockquote></p><p> What wasn't there to like in the earnings release to cause the sell-off that has been hovering in the -9.03% range? PLTR delivered 36% YoY revenue growth, added 34 new customers in Q3, and closed 54 deals worth $1 million or more. PLTR increased their remaining deal value by 50% YoY to $3.6 billion and delivered $101 million in cash from operations (26% margin), and $199 million in free cash flow (30% margin). PLTR also increased guidance for 2021 as they now expect revenue growth of 40% YoY compared to their previous projection of 30% and increased their projection in FCF to $400 million from $300 million. In addition to the numbers, PLTR announced new product platforms and use cases that have tremendous potential to drive revenue and FCF in the future. I believe this sell-off will be short-lived and I am looking at it as a buying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>财报中有什么不让人喜欢的地方导致了一直徘徊在-9.03%区间的抛售？PLTR收入同比增长36%，第三季度增加了34个新客户，并完成了54笔价值100万美元或以上的交易。PLTR的剩余交易价值同比增加了50%，达到36亿美元，并提供了1.01亿美元的运营现金（利润率26%）和1.99亿美元的自由现金流（利润率30%）。PLTR还提高了2021年的指导，因为他们现在预计收入同比增长40%，而之前的预测为30%，并将自由现金流预测从3亿美元提高到4亿美元。除了这些数字之外，PLTR还宣布了新的产品平台和用例，这些平台和用例在未来推动收入和自由现金流方面具有巨大潜力。我相信这次抛售将是短暂的，我将其视为买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cfe1dd0e9b2c6a24ce3cb94bcfda56c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：寻求阿尔法）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir's revenue continues to expand on both the commercial and government side</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir在商业和政府方面的收入持续扩张</b></blockquote></p><p> Quarter after Quarter since PLTR went public, their commercial business has expanded. After five quarters of going public, PLTR's quarterly commercial revenue has increased by $62 million or 55.36%. In Q3 2021, PLTR delivered $174 million in revenue from its commercial operations, which accounted for 44.38% of its $392.1 million quarterly revenue. Over the previous two years, PLTR's Q3 revenue has increased by 85.11% as it grew by 35.11% in Q3 2020 YoY and by another 37.01% YoY in Q3 of 2021. PLTR's commercial remaining deal value increased by 101% YoY from $1.1 billion in Q3 2020 to $2.2 billion in Q3 2021. Commercial customers are inviting PLTR to present their software solutions, and PLTR is winning their business. In Q3 2021, PLTR added 34 net new customers increasing their commercial customer base by 20% QoQ to 203. Over the past year, PLTR has seen its commercial customer base expand by 46.04% as it has grown by 64 clients from 139 to 203. Anyone who still classifies PLTR as a black box is not being accurate as the commercial market is learning about PLTR's software platforms and implementing their solutions to improve their operations.</p><p><blockquote>自PLTR上市以来，他们的商业业务逐季扩张。上市五个季度后，PLTR的季度商业收入增长了6200万美元，增幅为55.36%。2021年第三季度，PLTR的商业运营收入为1.74亿美元，占其3.921亿美元季度收入的44.38%。过去两年，PLTR第三季度收入增长了85.11%，其中2020年第三季度同比增长35.11%，2021年第三季度同比增长37.01%。PLTR的商业剩余交易价值同比增长101%，从2020年第三季度的11亿美元增至2021年第三季度的22亿美元。商业客户邀请PLTR展示他们的软件解决方案，PLTR正在赢得他们的业务。2021年第三季度，PLTR净新增34家新客户，商业客户群环比增加20%，达到203家。过去一年，PLTR的商业客户群扩大了46.04%，客户数量从139个增加到203个，增加了64个。任何仍然将PLTR归类为黑匣子的人都是不准确的，因为商业市场正在了解PLTR的软件平台并实施其解决方案以改善其运营。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa4084630f4e4be30a41c925c5a3fd0a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"374\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：Palantir）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since Q1 of 2020, PLTR has increased its quarterly revenue by $163.1 million (71.23%) at an average quarterly growth rate of 9.43% QoQ. In Q3 of 2021, this trend stayed intact as revenue increased by $16.1 million QoQ or 4.28%. While the quarterly revenue growth slowed a bit QoQ compared to 10.26% in Q2 2021, PLTR is projecting its Q4 2021 revenue will be $418 million. PLTR is expecting to deliver another company record and generate $25.9 million (6.61%) in QoQ growth to close out the year.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年第一季度以来，PLTR的季度收入增加了1.631亿美元（71.23%），平均季度环比增长率为9.43%。2021年第三季度，这一趋势保持不变，收入环比增长1610万美元，即4.28%。虽然与2021年第二季度的10.26%相比，季度收入增长环比略有放缓，但PLTR预计2021年第四季度收入将为4.18亿美元。PLTR预计将再创公司纪录，并在年底实现2590万美元（6.61%）的环比增长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The same growth story applies to their total revenue in the trailing twelve months (TTM) as well. Over the last six quarters, PLTR's TTM revenue has increased by $620.6 million (76.55%) from $810.6 million to $1.43 billion. On average, PLTR's TTM revenue growth has increased by $103.42 million (9.94%) QoQ. In Q1 2020 - Q3 2020, their average QoQ revenue growth was $94.03 million, and this has increased substantially as the past three quarters have all increased by at least $105 million QoQ. In Q3 2021, PLTR increased its TTM revenue to $1.43 billion as it added $106.8 million (8.06%) in QoQ revenue growth. Just like the quarterly metric, PLTR's TTM is expected to grow QoQ by an additional $95.9 million to $1.527 billion compared to $1.51 billion in the consensus estimate. This would place PLTR's annual revenue growth YoY well ahead of their 30% projection as they would finish 2021 having increased its revenue by $434.30 million (39.75%)</p><p><blockquote>同样的增长故事也适用于他们过去12个月(TTM)的总收入。在过去六个季度中，PLTR的TTM收入从8.106亿美元增加到14.3亿美元，增加了6.206亿美元（76.55%）。平均而言，PLTR的TTM收入环比增长1.0342亿美元（9.94%）。在Q1 2020-2020年第三季度，他们的平均环比收入增长为9403万美元，这一数字大幅增长，因为过去三个季度环比增长了至少1.05亿美元。2021年第三季度，PLTR的TTM收入增加至14.3亿美元，环比收入增长1.068亿美元（8.06%）。就像季度指标一样，PLTR的TTM预计将环比增长9590万美元，达到15.27亿美元，而市场普遍预期为15.1亿美元。这将使PLTR的年收入同比增长远高于30%的预测，因为到2021年，他们的收入将增加4.343亿美元(39.75%)</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0ec6211d7ecb04785f406c7661c9124\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：Palantir）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I am shocked PLTR is still in the red. PLTR is a high-growth company that is now FCF positive and expanding its metrics. In the first nine months of 2020, PLTR generated -$285 million in FCF, and at the end of the first nine months of 2021, PLTR has delivered a $605 million swing as it has produced $320 million in FCF YTD. PLTR previously increased their 2021 FCF guidance to $300, and they just increased it again to $400+ million. In the span of three months, PLTR increased its FCF projection by an additional 33.33%. In Q3, PLTR's FCF margin was 30%, and they are projecting $400+ million in FCF for 2021. At the very minimum, this would mean they will tack on an additional $80 million in FCF for 2021. If PLTR delivers $1.527 billion in revenue and $400 million in FCF, its 2021 FCF margin would be 26.2%. PLTR is still projecting 30% annual revenue growth YoY thru 2025, which would place their 2025 revenue at $4.36 billion based on their projection of $1.527 for 2021. At PLTR's current FCF margin, they would generate $1.14 billion in FCF in 2025. Considering PLTR's current trends, if they exceeded their projections and grew at 35% YoY, it would place their 2025 revenue at $5.07 billion. At their current FCF margin, they would then generate $1.33 billion in FCF in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>我很震惊PLTR仍然处于亏损状态。PLTR是一家高增长公司，目前自由现金流为正，并正在扩大其指标。2020年前9个月，PLTR产生了-2.85亿美元的自由现金流，截至2021年前9个月末，PLTR实现了6.05亿美元的波动，年初至今已产生了3.2亿美元的自由现金流。PLTR此前将2021年自由现金流指引提高至300美元，而他们刚刚再次将其提高至4亿美元以上。在三个月的时间里，PLTR将其自由现金流预测额外增加了33.33%。第三季度，PLTR的自由现金流利润率为30%，预计2021年自由现金流将超过4亿美元。至少，这意味着他们将在2021年额外增加8000万美元的自由现金流。如果PLTR实现15.27亿美元的收入和4亿美元的自由现金流，其2021年的自由现金流利润率将为26.2%。PLTR仍预计到2025年年收入将同比增长30%，根据2021年1.527美元的预测，2025年收入将达到43.6亿美元。按照PLTR目前的自由现金流利润率，他们将在2025年产生11.4亿美元的自由现金流。考虑到PLTR目前的趋势，如果他们超出预测并同比增长35%，那么他们2025年的收入将达到50.7亿美元。按照目前的自由现金流利润率，到2025年，他们将产生13.3亿美元的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87cff0d5c5ef70ea6926a1323c77bfe4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: PLTR)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：PLTR）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> PLTR is firing on all cylinders. YoY, their Q3 revenue grew by 36%, they raised guidance on their FCF for a 2nd time from $300 million to $400+ million and have increased their annual revenue growth guidance from 30% to roughly 40%. PLTR is still maintaining its future revenue outlook of 30% annually YoY and is creating some impressive margins. PLTR's commercial revenue grew YoY by 37%, and their government revenue grew by 34% YoY in Q3. PLTR closed at least 54 deals worth at least $1 million during Q3, and 33 of those were at least $5 million in revenue, and 18 were at least $10 million in revenue. PLTR's growth metrics are impressive, and I am expecting them to under promise and over deliver going forward.</p><p><blockquote>PLTR正在全速点火。第三季度收入同比增长36%，第二次将自由现金流指引从3亿美元上调至4亿美元以上，并将年收入增长指引从30%上调至约40%。PLTR仍维持每年30%的未来收入前景，并创造了一些令人印象深刻的利润。第三季度PLTR的商业收入同比增长37%，政府收入同比增长34%。PLTR在第三季度完成了至少54笔价值至少100万美元的交易，其中33笔收入至少500万美元，18笔收入至少1000万美元。PLTR的增长指标令人印象深刻，我预计它们未来将低于承诺并超额交付。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir is entering two new sectors that are going to be huge, carbon emissions, and crypto</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir正在进入两个巨大的新领域：碳排放和加密货币</b></blockquote></p><p> In the past, I have written about future opportunities with the government, Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), and International Business Machines(NYSE:IBM). On today's earnings call, PLTR introduced significant information surrounding two new products they will be offering for carbon emissions and crypto.</p><p><blockquote>过去，我曾写过有关政府、亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）和国际商业机器公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IBM）未来机遇的文章。在今天的收益看涨期权上，PLTR介绍了有关他们将为碳排放和加密货币提供的两种新产品的重要信息。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> There has been a fundamental shift in the USA over climate, and President Biden rejoined the Paris Agreement to reengage in tackling climate change. Part ofthe planis to reach a net-zero emission economy-wide by 2050. Recently President Biden at the United Nations climate summit in Glasgow, Scotland, pledged to work with the European Union and dozens of other nations to reduce overall methane emissions worldwide by 30% by 2030. No matter what your stance on climate is, there are many who believe we need to lower emissions, and many nations are working on a goal. To comply, companies such as&nbsp;Exxon Mobil(NYSE:XOM)&nbsp;are conducting longer-term research on several promising innovations with outside organizations, including direct air capture technology to&nbsp;scrub emissions out of the air&nbsp;and carbonate fuel cells&nbsp;to capture industrial emissions&nbsp;from flue gas streams of power plants or manufacturing facilities. Carbon emissions management is already a booming business, and PLTR is creating a module on Foundry to present a single pane to view revenue, margin, production, and all emissions so companies can manage outcomes more efficiently. Personally, I believe this has enormous potential to drive revenue for PLTR in the future.</p><p><blockquote>美国在气候问题上发生了根本性转变，拜登总统重新加入了《巴黎协定》，重新参与应对气候变化。该计划的一部分是到2050年实现整个经济的净零排放。最近，拜登总统在苏格兰格拉斯哥举行的联合国气候峰会上承诺与欧盟和其他数十个国家合作，到2030年将全球甲烷总排放量减少30%。无论你对气候的立场是什么，有许多人认为我们需要降低排放，许多国家正在朝着一个目标努力。为了遵守规定，埃克森美孚（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XOM）等公司正在与外部组织对几项有前途的创新进行长期研究，包括用于清除空气中排放物的直接空气捕获技术和用于捕获烟道中工业排放的碳酸盐燃料电池发电厂或制造设施的气流。碳排放管理已经是一项蓬勃发展的业务，PLTR正在Foundry上创建一个模块，以提供一个单一的窗格来查看收入、利润、生产和所有排放，以便公司可以更有效地管理结果。就我个人而言，我相信这对于推动PLTR未来的收入具有巨大的潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2386d938e7f452a340dbb130de508f6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Palantir）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The second huge prospect that PLTR discussed was Foundry for crypto. It looks like PLTR is leveraging their anti-money laundering and know-your-customer expertise. PLTR has worked with several governments over the years to find compliance issues with the world's largest banks and help those banks respond and strengthen their compliance programs. This makes complete sense, and when you go back to the contracts, PLTR has been awarded from the IRS and SEC (discussed in previous articles). In Q3 alone, PLTR inked 6 contracts with the IRS. If I had to guess, PLTR's software would be utilized by the IRS and the SEC on the government side and adopted on the commercial side by banks and crypto exchanges. Currently, in the past 24 hours,Coinbase(NASDAQ:COIN)&nbsp;is showing that Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has incurred a trading volume of $43.8 billion. I think PLTR will end up driving future revenue from both government and commercial contracts from its Foundry for Crypto.</p><p><blockquote>PLTR讨论的第二个巨大前景是加密货币代工。看起来PLTR正在利用他们的反洗钱和了解你的客户的专业知识。多年来，PLTR一直与多个政府合作，寻找全球最大银行的合规问题，并帮助这些银行应对和加强其合规计划。这是完全有道理的，当您回到合同时，PLTR已获得IRS和SEC的授予（在之前的文章中讨论过）。仅在第三季度，PLTR就与IRS签署了6份合同。如果让我猜的话，PLTR的软件将被IRS和SEC在政府方面使用，并被银行和加密货币交易所在商业方面采用。目前，在过去24小时内，Coinbase（纳斯达克：COIN）显示比特币（BTC-USD）的交易量为438亿美元。我认为PLTR最终将从其加密货币代工厂的政府和商业合同中获得未来的收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53c762e27799c80dbaa9914bb98a6a10\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"234\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Federal Procurement Database)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：联邦采购数据库）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/005d57c6c5c926b35eac100fa35c7415\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Palantir）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> PLTR has become another statistic of the market misunderstanding its earnings and selling the news when the news was great. What more does anyone want PLTR to do? This was an excellent quarter with revenue increasing 36% YoY in Q3, FCF came in at $119 million with a 30% margin, and PLTR closed 54 deals worth more than $1 million each. PLTR beats revenue estimates, increases guidance for its full-year revenue than for the 2nd time, increases its FCF guidance. This was a sell the news on all positive factors, which is creating a buying opportunity. I am staying long on PLTR and plan to add to my position if the sell-off continues.</p><p><blockquote>PLTR已经成为市场误解其收益并在消息好的时候抛售消息的另一个统计数据。还有人想让PLTR做什么？这是一个出色的季度，第三季度收入同比增长36%，自由现金流为1.19亿美元，利润率为30%，PLTR完成了54笔交易，每笔价值超过100万美元。PLTR超出收入预期，第二次上调全年收入指引，上调自由现金流指引。这是一个基于所有积极因素的卖出消息，这创造了买入机会。我将做多PLTR，如果抛售继续，我计划增加我的头寸。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Seeking Alpha Marketplace</b></p><p><blockquote><b>寻求阿尔法市场</b></blockquote></p><p> I will be launching a subscription service called Barbell Capital on the Seeking Alpha Marketplace. Barbell Capital will provide exclusive research, model portfolios, investment tools, Q&amp;A sessions, watchlists, and additional features for its members. I will also have a live portfolio dedicated to generating capital from trading, selling puts and selling covered calls. The profits will be allocated to future capital appreciating investments and investing in dividend investments to generate income while we sleep.</p><p><blockquote>我将在Seeking Alpha市场上推出一项名为Barbell Capital的订阅服务。Barbell Capital将为其成员提供独家研究、模型投资组合、投资工具、问答环节、观察列表和其他功能。我还将拥有一个实时投资组合，致力于通过交易、出售看跌期权和出售备兑评级来产生资本。利润将分配给未来的资本增值投资和投资股息投资，在我们睡觉时产生收入。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Q3 Beat, Increased FCF, Raises Guidance But Sells Off Creating An Opportunity<blockquote>Palantir：第三季度表现良好，自由现金流增加，提高指引但抛售创造了机会</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Q3 Beat, Increased FCF, Raises Guidance But Sells Off Creating An Opportunity<blockquote>Palantir：第三季度表现良好，自由现金流增加，提高指引但抛售创造了机会</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-13 10:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir delivered revenue growth QoQ of 36% while generating $119 million in FCF creating a 30% margin.</li>  <li>Palantir's commercial revenue increased 37%, and government revenue grew by 34% YoY in Q3 showing strong forward growth trends.</li>  <li>Palantir closed 54 deals in Q3 2021 with at least $1 million in contract value with 33 valued at $5+ million and 18 at $10+ million.</li>  <li>Palantir increases guidance again and expects 40% revenue growth YoY at $1.527 billion and $400 million in FCF up from the previous guidance increase of $300 million.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fd5d395baf412802ef5e554f0efa64b\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Andreas Rentz/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir的收入环比增长36%，同时产生1.19亿美元的自由现金流，利润率为30%。</li><li>Palantir第三季度商业收入同比增长37%，政府收入同比增长34%，显示出强劲的前瞻性增长趋势。</li><li>Palantir在2021年第三季度完成了54笔交易，合同价值至少为100万美元，其中33笔价值超过500万美元，18笔价值超过1000万美元。</li><li>Palantir再次上调指引，预计收入同比增长40%，达到15.27亿美元，自由现金流为4亿美元，高于之前指引的3亿美元。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>安德烈亚斯·伦茨/盖蒂图片社娱乐</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Some investors love to hate Palantir (PLTR), which was nicknamed a black box company in the past, while others absolutely love it because they believe PLTR's software is the future. In my previous article on PLTR, I stated that based on PLTR's current revenue trend, they were setting up to deliver $399.41 million in revenue for Q3 and $423.22 million of revenue in Q4. The consensus number was $386.56 million of revenue in Q3, and PLTR delivered $392.1 million and forecasted $418 million in Q4 2021. The reaction in premarket as the earnings call was being conducted was nothing but a sea of red as PLTR sharply declined, and each time a gap tried to fill, the next leg on the downward spiral started. The news wasn't even digested, yet people decided to either take profits, exit their position or lost faith in PLTR.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者又爱又恨Palantir(PLTR)，它过去被昵称为黑匣子公司，而另一些投资者则绝对喜欢它，因为他们相信PLTR的软件是未来。在我之前关于PLTR的文章中，我表示，根据PLTR当前的收入趋势，他们计划在第三季度实现3.9941亿美元的收入，在第四季度实现4.2322亿美元的收入。市场普遍认为第三季度的收入为3.8656亿美元，PLTR在2021年第四季度实现了3.921亿美元，预测为4.18亿美元。当进行盈利看涨期权时，盘前的反应只不过是PLTR急剧下跌的红海，每次试图填补缺口时，螺旋式下降的下一阶段就开始了。这个消息甚至还没有被消化，但人们决定要么获利了结，要么退出头寸，要么对PLTR失去信心。</blockquote></p><p> What wasn't there to like in the earnings release to cause the sell-off that has been hovering in the -9.03% range? PLTR delivered 36% YoY revenue growth, added 34 new customers in Q3, and closed 54 deals worth $1 million or more. PLTR increased their remaining deal value by 50% YoY to $3.6 billion and delivered $101 million in cash from operations (26% margin), and $199 million in free cash flow (30% margin). PLTR also increased guidance for 2021 as they now expect revenue growth of 40% YoY compared to their previous projection of 30% and increased their projection in FCF to $400 million from $300 million. In addition to the numbers, PLTR announced new product platforms and use cases that have tremendous potential to drive revenue and FCF in the future. I believe this sell-off will be short-lived and I am looking at it as a buying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>财报中有什么不让人喜欢的地方导致了一直徘徊在-9.03%区间的抛售？PLTR收入同比增长36%，第三季度增加了34个新客户，并完成了54笔价值100万美元或以上的交易。PLTR的剩余交易价值同比增加了50%，达到36亿美元，并提供了1.01亿美元的运营现金（利润率26%）和1.99亿美元的自由现金流（利润率30%）。PLTR还提高了2021年的指导，因为他们现在预计收入同比增长40%，而之前的预测为30%，并将自由现金流预测从3亿美元提高到4亿美元。除了这些数字之外，PLTR还宣布了新的产品平台和用例，这些平台和用例在未来推动收入和自由现金流方面具有巨大潜力。我相信这次抛售将是短暂的，我将其视为买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cfe1dd0e9b2c6a24ce3cb94bcfda56c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：寻求阿尔法）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir's revenue continues to expand on both the commercial and government side</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir在商业和政府方面的收入持续扩张</b></blockquote></p><p> Quarter after Quarter since PLTR went public, their commercial business has expanded. After five quarters of going public, PLTR's quarterly commercial revenue has increased by $62 million or 55.36%. In Q3 2021, PLTR delivered $174 million in revenue from its commercial operations, which accounted for 44.38% of its $392.1 million quarterly revenue. Over the previous two years, PLTR's Q3 revenue has increased by 85.11% as it grew by 35.11% in Q3 2020 YoY and by another 37.01% YoY in Q3 of 2021. PLTR's commercial remaining deal value increased by 101% YoY from $1.1 billion in Q3 2020 to $2.2 billion in Q3 2021. Commercial customers are inviting PLTR to present their software solutions, and PLTR is winning their business. In Q3 2021, PLTR added 34 net new customers increasing their commercial customer base by 20% QoQ to 203. Over the past year, PLTR has seen its commercial customer base expand by 46.04% as it has grown by 64 clients from 139 to 203. Anyone who still classifies PLTR as a black box is not being accurate as the commercial market is learning about PLTR's software platforms and implementing their solutions to improve their operations.</p><p><blockquote>自PLTR上市以来，他们的商业业务逐季扩张。上市五个季度后，PLTR的季度商业收入增长了6200万美元，增幅为55.36%。2021年第三季度，PLTR的商业运营收入为1.74亿美元，占其3.921亿美元季度收入的44.38%。过去两年，PLTR第三季度收入增长了85.11%，其中2020年第三季度同比增长35.11%，2021年第三季度同比增长37.01%。PLTR的商业剩余交易价值同比增长101%，从2020年第三季度的11亿美元增至2021年第三季度的22亿美元。商业客户邀请PLTR展示他们的软件解决方案，PLTR正在赢得他们的业务。2021年第三季度，PLTR净新增34家新客户，商业客户群环比增加20%，达到203家。过去一年，PLTR的商业客户群扩大了46.04%，客户数量从139个增加到203个，增加了64个。任何仍然将PLTR归类为黑匣子的人都是不准确的，因为商业市场正在了解PLTR的软件平台并实施其解决方案以改善其运营。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa4084630f4e4be30a41c925c5a3fd0a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"374\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：Palantir）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since Q1 of 2020, PLTR has increased its quarterly revenue by $163.1 million (71.23%) at an average quarterly growth rate of 9.43% QoQ. In Q3 of 2021, this trend stayed intact as revenue increased by $16.1 million QoQ or 4.28%. While the quarterly revenue growth slowed a bit QoQ compared to 10.26% in Q2 2021, PLTR is projecting its Q4 2021 revenue will be $418 million. PLTR is expecting to deliver another company record and generate $25.9 million (6.61%) in QoQ growth to close out the year.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年第一季度以来，PLTR的季度收入增加了1.631亿美元（71.23%），平均季度环比增长率为9.43%。2021年第三季度，这一趋势保持不变，收入环比增长1610万美元，即4.28%。虽然与2021年第二季度的10.26%相比，季度收入增长环比略有放缓，但PLTR预计2021年第四季度收入将为4.18亿美元。PLTR预计将再创公司纪录，并在年底实现2590万美元（6.61%）的环比增长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The same growth story applies to their total revenue in the trailing twelve months (TTM) as well. Over the last six quarters, PLTR's TTM revenue has increased by $620.6 million (76.55%) from $810.6 million to $1.43 billion. On average, PLTR's TTM revenue growth has increased by $103.42 million (9.94%) QoQ. In Q1 2020 - Q3 2020, their average QoQ revenue growth was $94.03 million, and this has increased substantially as the past three quarters have all increased by at least $105 million QoQ. In Q3 2021, PLTR increased its TTM revenue to $1.43 billion as it added $106.8 million (8.06%) in QoQ revenue growth. Just like the quarterly metric, PLTR's TTM is expected to grow QoQ by an additional $95.9 million to $1.527 billion compared to $1.51 billion in the consensus estimate. This would place PLTR's annual revenue growth YoY well ahead of their 30% projection as they would finish 2021 having increased its revenue by $434.30 million (39.75%)</p><p><blockquote>同样的增长故事也适用于他们过去12个月(TTM)的总收入。在过去六个季度中，PLTR的TTM收入从8.106亿美元增加到14.3亿美元，增加了6.206亿美元（76.55%）。平均而言，PLTR的TTM收入环比增长1.0342亿美元（9.94%）。在Q1 2020-2020年第三季度，他们的平均环比收入增长为9403万美元，这一数字大幅增长，因为过去三个季度环比增长了至少1.05亿美元。2021年第三季度，PLTR的TTM收入增加至14.3亿美元，环比收入增长1.068亿美元（8.06%）。就像季度指标一样，PLTR的TTM预计将环比增长9590万美元，达到15.27亿美元，而市场普遍预期为15.1亿美元。这将使PLTR的年收入同比增长远高于30%的预测，因为到2021年，他们的收入将增加4.343亿美元(39.75%)</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0ec6211d7ecb04785f406c7661c9124\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：Palantir）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I am shocked PLTR is still in the red. PLTR is a high-growth company that is now FCF positive and expanding its metrics. In the first nine months of 2020, PLTR generated -$285 million in FCF, and at the end of the first nine months of 2021, PLTR has delivered a $605 million swing as it has produced $320 million in FCF YTD. PLTR previously increased their 2021 FCF guidance to $300, and they just increased it again to $400+ million. In the span of three months, PLTR increased its FCF projection by an additional 33.33%. In Q3, PLTR's FCF margin was 30%, and they are projecting $400+ million in FCF for 2021. At the very minimum, this would mean they will tack on an additional $80 million in FCF for 2021. If PLTR delivers $1.527 billion in revenue and $400 million in FCF, its 2021 FCF margin would be 26.2%. PLTR is still projecting 30% annual revenue growth YoY thru 2025, which would place their 2025 revenue at $4.36 billion based on their projection of $1.527 for 2021. At PLTR's current FCF margin, they would generate $1.14 billion in FCF in 2025. Considering PLTR's current trends, if they exceeded their projections and grew at 35% YoY, it would place their 2025 revenue at $5.07 billion. At their current FCF margin, they would then generate $1.33 billion in FCF in 2025.</p><p><blockquote>我很震惊PLTR仍然处于亏损状态。PLTR是一家高增长公司，目前自由现金流为正，并正在扩大其指标。2020年前9个月，PLTR产生了-2.85亿美元的自由现金流，截至2021年前9个月末，PLTR实现了6.05亿美元的波动，年初至今已产生了3.2亿美元的自由现金流。PLTR此前将2021年自由现金流指引提高至300美元，而他们刚刚再次将其提高至4亿美元以上。在三个月的时间里，PLTR将其自由现金流预测额外增加了33.33%。第三季度，PLTR的自由现金流利润率为30%，预计2021年自由现金流将超过4亿美元。至少，这意味着他们将在2021年额外增加8000万美元的自由现金流。如果PLTR实现15.27亿美元的收入和4亿美元的自由现金流，其2021年的自由现金流利润率将为26.2%。PLTR仍预计到2025年年收入将同比增长30%，根据2021年1.527美元的预测，2025年收入将达到43.6亿美元。按照PLTR目前的自由现金流利润率，他们将在2025年产生11.4亿美元的自由现金流。考虑到PLTR目前的趋势，如果他们超出预测并同比增长35%，那么他们2025年的收入将达到50.7亿美元。按照目前的自由现金流利润率，到2025年，他们将产生13.3亿美元的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87cff0d5c5ef70ea6926a1323c77bfe4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: PLTR)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：PLTR）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> PLTR is firing on all cylinders. YoY, their Q3 revenue grew by 36%, they raised guidance on their FCF for a 2nd time from $300 million to $400+ million and have increased their annual revenue growth guidance from 30% to roughly 40%. PLTR is still maintaining its future revenue outlook of 30% annually YoY and is creating some impressive margins. PLTR's commercial revenue grew YoY by 37%, and their government revenue grew by 34% YoY in Q3. PLTR closed at least 54 deals worth at least $1 million during Q3, and 33 of those were at least $5 million in revenue, and 18 were at least $10 million in revenue. PLTR's growth metrics are impressive, and I am expecting them to under promise and over deliver going forward.</p><p><blockquote>PLTR正在全速点火。第三季度收入同比增长36%，第二次将自由现金流指引从3亿美元上调至4亿美元以上，并将年收入增长指引从30%上调至约40%。PLTR仍维持每年30%的未来收入前景，并创造了一些令人印象深刻的利润。第三季度PLTR的商业收入同比增长37%，政府收入同比增长34%。PLTR在第三季度完成了至少54笔价值至少100万美元的交易，其中33笔收入至少500万美元，18笔收入至少1000万美元。PLTR的增长指标令人印象深刻，我预计它们未来将低于承诺并超额交付。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir is entering two new sectors that are going to be huge, carbon emissions, and crypto</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir正在进入两个巨大的新领域：碳排放和加密货币</b></blockquote></p><p> In the past, I have written about future opportunities with the government, Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), and International Business Machines(NYSE:IBM). On today's earnings call, PLTR introduced significant information surrounding two new products they will be offering for carbon emissions and crypto.</p><p><blockquote>过去，我曾写过有关政府、亚马逊（纳斯达克股票代码：AMZN）和国际商业机器公司（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IBM）未来机遇的文章。在今天的收益看涨期权上，PLTR介绍了有关他们将为碳排放和加密货币提供的两种新产品的重要信息。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> There has been a fundamental shift in the USA over climate, and President Biden rejoined the Paris Agreement to reengage in tackling climate change. Part ofthe planis to reach a net-zero emission economy-wide by 2050. Recently President Biden at the United Nations climate summit in Glasgow, Scotland, pledged to work with the European Union and dozens of other nations to reduce overall methane emissions worldwide by 30% by 2030. No matter what your stance on climate is, there are many who believe we need to lower emissions, and many nations are working on a goal. To comply, companies such as&nbsp;Exxon Mobil(NYSE:XOM)&nbsp;are conducting longer-term research on several promising innovations with outside organizations, including direct air capture technology to&nbsp;scrub emissions out of the air&nbsp;and carbonate fuel cells&nbsp;to capture industrial emissions&nbsp;from flue gas streams of power plants or manufacturing facilities. Carbon emissions management is already a booming business, and PLTR is creating a module on Foundry to present a single pane to view revenue, margin, production, and all emissions so companies can manage outcomes more efficiently. Personally, I believe this has enormous potential to drive revenue for PLTR in the future.</p><p><blockquote>美国在气候问题上发生了根本性转变，拜登总统重新加入了《巴黎协定》，重新参与应对气候变化。该计划的一部分是到2050年实现整个经济的净零排放。最近，拜登总统在苏格兰格拉斯哥举行的联合国气候峰会上承诺与欧盟和其他数十个国家合作，到2030年将全球甲烷总排放量减少30%。无论你对气候的立场是什么，有许多人认为我们需要降低排放，许多国家正在朝着一个目标努力。为了遵守规定，埃克森美孚（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XOM）等公司正在与外部组织对几项有前途的创新进行长期研究，包括用于清除空气中排放物的直接空气捕获技术和用于捕获烟道中工业排放的碳酸盐燃料电池发电厂或制造设施的气流。碳排放管理已经是一项蓬勃发展的业务，PLTR正在Foundry上创建一个模块，以提供一个单一的窗格来查看收入、利润、生产和所有排放，以便公司可以更有效地管理结果。就我个人而言，我相信这对于推动PLTR未来的收入具有巨大的潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2386d938e7f452a340dbb130de508f6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Palantir）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The second huge prospect that PLTR discussed was Foundry for crypto. It looks like PLTR is leveraging their anti-money laundering and know-your-customer expertise. PLTR has worked with several governments over the years to find compliance issues with the world's largest banks and help those banks respond and strengthen their compliance programs. This makes complete sense, and when you go back to the contracts, PLTR has been awarded from the IRS and SEC (discussed in previous articles). In Q3 alone, PLTR inked 6 contracts with the IRS. If I had to guess, PLTR's software would be utilized by the IRS and the SEC on the government side and adopted on the commercial side by banks and crypto exchanges. Currently, in the past 24 hours,Coinbase(NASDAQ:COIN)&nbsp;is showing that Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has incurred a trading volume of $43.8 billion. I think PLTR will end up driving future revenue from both government and commercial contracts from its Foundry for Crypto.</p><p><blockquote>PLTR讨论的第二个巨大前景是加密货币代工。看起来PLTR正在利用他们的反洗钱和了解你的客户的专业知识。多年来，PLTR一直与多个政府合作，寻找全球最大银行的合规问题，并帮助这些银行应对和加强其合规计划。这是完全有道理的，当您回到合同时，PLTR已获得IRS和SEC的授予（在之前的文章中讨论过）。仅在第三季度，PLTR就与IRS签署了6份合同。如果让我猜的话，PLTR的软件将被IRS和SEC在政府方面使用，并被银行和加密货币交易所在商业方面采用。目前，在过去24小时内，Coinbase（纳斯达克：COIN）显示比特币（BTC-USD）的交易量为438亿美元。我认为PLTR最终将从其加密货币代工厂的政府和商业合同中获得未来的收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53c762e27799c80dbaa9914bb98a6a10\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"234\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Federal Procurement Database)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：联邦采购数据库）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/005d57c6c5c926b35eac100fa35c7415\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Palantir)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Palantir）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> PLTR has become another statistic of the market misunderstanding its earnings and selling the news when the news was great. What more does anyone want PLTR to do? This was an excellent quarter with revenue increasing 36% YoY in Q3, FCF came in at $119 million with a 30% margin, and PLTR closed 54 deals worth more than $1 million each. PLTR beats revenue estimates, increases guidance for its full-year revenue than for the 2nd time, increases its FCF guidance. This was a sell the news on all positive factors, which is creating a buying opportunity. I am staying long on PLTR and plan to add to my position if the sell-off continues.</p><p><blockquote>PLTR已经成为市场误解其收益并在消息好的时候抛售消息的另一个统计数据。还有人想让PLTR做什么？这是一个出色的季度，第三季度收入同比增长36%，自由现金流为1.19亿美元，利润率为30%，PLTR完成了54笔交易，每笔价值超过100万美元。PLTR超出收入预期，第二次上调全年收入指引，上调自由现金流指引。这是一个基于所有积极因素的卖出消息，这创造了买入机会。我将做多PLTR，如果抛售继续，我计划增加我的头寸。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Seeking Alpha Marketplace</b></p><p><blockquote><b>寻求阿尔法市场</b></blockquote></p><p> I will be launching a subscription service called Barbell Capital on the Seeking Alpha Marketplace. Barbell Capital will provide exclusive research, model portfolios, investment tools, Q&amp;A sessions, watchlists, and additional features for its members. I will also have a live portfolio dedicated to generating capital from trading, selling puts and selling covered calls. The profits will be allocated to future capital appreciating investments and investing in dividend investments to generate income while we sleep.</p><p><blockquote>我将在Seeking Alpha市场上推出一项名为Barbell Capital的订阅服务。Barbell Capital将为其成员提供独家研究、模型投资组合、投资工具、问答环节、观察列表和其他功能。我还将拥有一个实时投资组合，致力于通过交易、出售看跌期权和出售备兑评级来产生资本。利润将分配给未来的资本增值投资和投资股息投资，在我们睡觉时产生收入。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4468059-palantir-q3-beat-creating-an-opportunity\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4468059-palantir-q3-beat-creating-an-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129543601","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir delivered revenue growth QoQ of 36% while generating $119 million in FCF creating a 30% margin.\nPalantir's commercial revenue increased 37%, and government revenue grew by 34% YoY in Q3 showing strong forward growth trends.\nPalantir closed 54 deals in Q3 2021 with at least $1 million in contract value with 33 valued at $5+ million and 18 at $10+ million.\nPalantir increases guidance again and expects 40% revenue growth YoY at $1.527 billion and $400 million in FCF up from the previous guidance increase of $300 million.\n\nAndreas Rentz/Getty Images Entertainment\nSome investors love to hate Palantir (PLTR), which was nicknamed a black box company in the past, while others absolutely love it because they believe PLTR's software is the future. In my previous article on PLTR, I stated that based on PLTR's current revenue trend, they were setting up to deliver $399.41 million in revenue for Q3 and $423.22 million of revenue in Q4. The consensus number was $386.56 million of revenue in Q3, and PLTR delivered $392.1 million and forecasted $418 million in Q4 2021. The reaction in premarket as the earnings call was being conducted was nothing but a sea of red as PLTR sharply declined, and each time a gap tried to fill, the next leg on the downward spiral started. The news wasn't even digested, yet people decided to either take profits, exit their position or lost faith in PLTR.\nWhat wasn't there to like in the earnings release to cause the sell-off that has been hovering in the -9.03% range? PLTR delivered 36% YoY revenue growth, added 34 new customers in Q3, and closed 54 deals worth $1 million or more. PLTR increased their remaining deal value by 50% YoY to $3.6 billion and delivered $101 million in cash from operations (26% margin), and $199 million in free cash flow (30% margin). PLTR also increased guidance for 2021 as they now expect revenue growth of 40% YoY compared to their previous projection of 30% and increased their projection in FCF to $400 million from $300 million. In addition to the numbers, PLTR announced new product platforms and use cases that have tremendous potential to drive revenue and FCF in the future. I believe this sell-off will be short-lived and I am looking at it as a buying opportunity.\n(Source: Seeking Alpha)\nPalantir's revenue continues to expand on both the commercial and government side\nQuarter after Quarter since PLTR went public, their commercial business has expanded. After five quarters of going public, PLTR's quarterly commercial revenue has increased by $62 million or 55.36%. In Q3 2021, PLTR delivered $174 million in revenue from its commercial operations, which accounted for 44.38% of its $392.1 million quarterly revenue. Over the previous two years, PLTR's Q3 revenue has increased by 85.11% as it grew by 35.11% in Q3 2020 YoY and by another 37.01% YoY in Q3 of 2021. PLTR's commercial remaining deal value increased by 101% YoY from $1.1 billion in Q3 2020 to $2.2 billion in Q3 2021. Commercial customers are inviting PLTR to present their software solutions, and PLTR is winning their business. In Q3 2021, PLTR added 34 net new customers increasing their commercial customer base by 20% QoQ to 203. Over the past year, PLTR has seen its commercial customer base expand by 46.04% as it has grown by 64 clients from 139 to 203. Anyone who still classifies PLTR as a black box is not being accurate as the commercial market is learning about PLTR's software platforms and implementing their solutions to improve their operations.\n(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Palantir)\nSince Q1 of 2020, PLTR has increased its quarterly revenue by $163.1 million (71.23%) at an average quarterly growth rate of 9.43% QoQ. In Q3 of 2021, this trend stayed intact as revenue increased by $16.1 million QoQ or 4.28%. While the quarterly revenue growth slowed a bit QoQ compared to 10.26% in Q2 2021, PLTR is projecting its Q4 2021 revenue will be $418 million. PLTR is expecting to deliver another company record and generate $25.9 million (6.61%) in QoQ growth to close out the year.\nThe same growth story applies to their total revenue in the trailing twelve months (TTM) as well. Over the last six quarters, PLTR's TTM revenue has increased by $620.6 million (76.55%) from $810.6 million to $1.43 billion. On average, PLTR's TTM revenue growth has increased by $103.42 million (9.94%) QoQ. In Q1 2020 - Q3 2020, their average QoQ revenue growth was $94.03 million, and this has increased substantially as the past three quarters have all increased by at least $105 million QoQ. In Q3 2021, PLTR increased its TTM revenue to $1.43 billion as it added $106.8 million (8.06%) in QoQ revenue growth. Just like the quarterly metric, PLTR's TTM is expected to grow QoQ by an additional $95.9 million to $1.527 billion compared to $1.51 billion in the consensus estimate. This would place PLTR's annual revenue growth YoY well ahead of their 30% projection as they would finish 2021 having increased its revenue by $434.30 million (39.75%)\n(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Palantir)\nI am shocked PLTR is still in the red. PLTR is a high-growth company that is now FCF positive and expanding its metrics. In the first nine months of 2020, PLTR generated -$285 million in FCF, and at the end of the first nine months of 2021, PLTR has delivered a $605 million swing as it has produced $320 million in FCF YTD. PLTR previously increased their 2021 FCF guidance to $300, and they just increased it again to $400+ million. In the span of three months, PLTR increased its FCF projection by an additional 33.33%. In Q3, PLTR's FCF margin was 30%, and they are projecting $400+ million in FCF for 2021. At the very minimum, this would mean they will tack on an additional $80 million in FCF for 2021. If PLTR delivers $1.527 billion in revenue and $400 million in FCF, its 2021 FCF margin would be 26.2%. PLTR is still projecting 30% annual revenue growth YoY thru 2025, which would place their 2025 revenue at $4.36 billion based on their projection of $1.527 for 2021. At PLTR's current FCF margin, they would generate $1.14 billion in FCF in 2025. Considering PLTR's current trends, if they exceeded their projections and grew at 35% YoY, it would place their 2025 revenue at $5.07 billion. At their current FCF margin, they would then generate $1.33 billion in FCF in 2025.\n(Source: PLTR)\nPLTR is firing on all cylinders. YoY, their Q3 revenue grew by 36%, they raised guidance on their FCF for a 2nd time from $300 million to $400+ million and have increased their annual revenue growth guidance from 30% to roughly 40%. PLTR is still maintaining its future revenue outlook of 30% annually YoY and is creating some impressive margins. PLTR's commercial revenue grew YoY by 37%, and their government revenue grew by 34% YoY in Q3. PLTR closed at least 54 deals worth at least $1 million during Q3, and 33 of those were at least $5 million in revenue, and 18 were at least $10 million in revenue. PLTR's growth metrics are impressive, and I am expecting them to under promise and over deliver going forward.\nPalantir is entering two new sectors that are going to be huge, carbon emissions, and crypto\nIn the past, I have written about future opportunities with the government, Amazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), and International Business Machines(NYSE:IBM). On today's earnings call, PLTR introduced significant information surrounding two new products they will be offering for carbon emissions and crypto.\nThere has been a fundamental shift in the USA over climate, and President Biden rejoined the Paris Agreement to reengage in tackling climate change. Part ofthe planis to reach a net-zero emission economy-wide by 2050. Recently President Biden at the United Nations climate summit in Glasgow, Scotland, pledged to work with the European Union and dozens of other nations to reduce overall methane emissions worldwide by 30% by 2030. No matter what your stance on climate is, there are many who believe we need to lower emissions, and many nations are working on a goal. To comply, companies such as Exxon Mobil(NYSE:XOM) are conducting longer-term research on several promising innovations with outside organizations, including direct air capture technology to scrub emissions out of the air and carbonate fuel cells to capture industrial emissions from flue gas streams of power plants or manufacturing facilities. Carbon emissions management is already a booming business, and PLTR is creating a module on Foundry to present a single pane to view revenue, margin, production, and all emissions so companies can manage outcomes more efficiently. Personally, I believe this has enormous potential to drive revenue for PLTR in the future.\n(Source: Palantir)\nThe second huge prospect that PLTR discussed was Foundry for crypto. It looks like PLTR is leveraging their anti-money laundering and know-your-customer expertise. PLTR has worked with several governments over the years to find compliance issues with the world's largest banks and help those banks respond and strengthen their compliance programs. This makes complete sense, and when you go back to the contracts, PLTR has been awarded from the IRS and SEC (discussed in previous articles). In Q3 alone, PLTR inked 6 contracts with the IRS. If I had to guess, PLTR's software would be utilized by the IRS and the SEC on the government side and adopted on the commercial side by banks and crypto exchanges. Currently, in the past 24 hours,Coinbase(NASDAQ:COIN) is showing that Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has incurred a trading volume of $43.8 billion. I think PLTR will end up driving future revenue from both government and commercial contracts from its Foundry for Crypto.\n(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Federal Procurement Database)\n(Source: Palantir)\nConclusion\nPLTR has become another statistic of the market misunderstanding its earnings and selling the news when the news was great. What more does anyone want PLTR to do? This was an excellent quarter with revenue increasing 36% YoY in Q3, FCF came in at $119 million with a 30% margin, and PLTR closed 54 deals worth more than $1 million each. PLTR beats revenue estimates, increases guidance for its full-year revenue than for the 2nd time, increases its FCF guidance. This was a sell the news on all positive factors, which is creating a buying opportunity. I am staying long on PLTR and plan to add to my position if the sell-off continues.\nSeeking Alpha Marketplace\nI will be launching a subscription service called Barbell Capital on the Seeking Alpha Marketplace. Barbell Capital will provide exclusive research, model portfolios, investment tools, Q&A sessions, watchlists, and additional features for its members. I will also have a live portfolio dedicated to generating capital from trading, selling puts and selling covered calls. The profits will be allocated to future capital appreciating investments and investing in dividend investments to generate income while we sleep.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2414,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":844870207,"gmtCreate":1636419244351,"gmtModify":1636419321512,"author":{"id":"3557811768798613","authorId":"3557811768798613","name":"ruuderay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72f19bc2c47f8b3f3e7e15d70515a920","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557811768798613","idStr":"3557811768798613"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"It’s down why they say it’s up?","listText":"It’s down why they say it’s up?","text":"It’s down why they say it’s up?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/844870207","repostId":"2182772815","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2337,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":858982678,"gmtCreate":1634963346974,"gmtModify":1634963347138,"author":{"id":"3557811768798613","authorId":"3557811768798613","name":"ruuderay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72f19bc2c47f8b3f3e7e15d70515a920","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557811768798613","idStr":"3557811768798613"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"pltr","listText":"pltr","text":"pltr","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/858982678","repostId":"1177255738","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177255738","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634953820,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1177255738?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-23 09:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir Stock Price Prediction: Outlook After U.S. Army Selection<blockquote>Palantir股价预测：美国陆军选择后的展望</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177255738","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPalantir's US Army contract is huge news for the company due to the contract's large size. ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir's US Army contract is huge news for the company due to the contract's large size. The bigger picture is important as well - PLTR is highly competitive and trusted.</li>  <li>PLTR is one of just four IL-5 DoD-certified companies and is moving to IL-6, which should increase its moat further.</li>  <li>The company is seemingly expensive on a profit basis, but when we consider PLTR's growth outlook, shares could be a pretty good investment, nevertheless.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa0d32030c1112ab6f00943f9091b85b\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"516\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Scott Olson/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir的美国陆军合同对该公司来说是一个巨大的新闻，因为合同规模很大。大局也很重要——PLTR极具竞争力且值得信赖。</li><li>PLTR是仅有的四家获得国防部认证的IL-5公司之一，并且正在转向IL-6，这应该会进一步增加其护城河。</li><li>该公司的利润似乎很昂贵，但当我们考虑PLTR的增长前景时，股票可能是一项相当不错的投资。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>斯科特·奥尔森/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir Technologies (PLTR) remains a highly exciting, fast-growing tech company that continues to trade at an expensive valuation. The recent contract with the US Army shows, again, that its proprietary solutions are in a class of their own and that Palantir Technologies is very entrenched in government bodies, which should allow the company to deliver strong growth for many years. Palantir Technologies is not a low-risk pick, but I do believe that, in the long run, investors could see sizeable gains from this stock.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir Technologies(PLTR)仍然是一家非常令人兴奋、快速增长的科技公司，其估值仍然很高。最近与美国陆军签订的合同再次表明，其专有解决方案是独一无二的，并且Palantir Technologies在政府机构中根深蒂固，这应该使该公司能够实现多年的强劲增长。Palantir Technologies并不是一个低风险的选择，但我确实相信，从长远来看，投资者可以从这只股票中看到可观的收益。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir &amp; US Army Contract</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir与美国陆军合同</b></blockquote></p><p> In early October, Palantir Technologies announced that it was selected by the US Army for a contract worth&nbsp;$823 million&nbsp;that will see the company deliver the Army Intelligence data fabric and analytics foundation for the&nbsp;<i>Capability Drop 2</i>&nbsp;(CD-2) program.</p><p><blockquote>10月初，Palantir Technologies宣布被美国陆军选中签订一份价值8.23亿美元的合同，该公司将为<i>能力下降2</i>（CD-2）程序。</blockquote></p><p> For a company like Palantir, which generates revenue of around $1.5 billion a year right now, an $800+ million contract is huge, of course, but it should be noted that this contract will not see Palantir capture all of that revenue in a short period of time. On top of that, not necessarily all of that revenue will go to Palantir Technologies, as other vendors, e.g., for hardware, might take some share of the contract as well. A more bearish analyst&nbsp;noted&nbsp;that the administration has requested around $100 million for that contract in fiscal 2022, suggesting that it will take several years for Palantir to capture all of the revenue from that contract.</p><p><blockquote>对于像Palantir这样目前年收入约为15亿美元的公司来说，一份8亿多美元的合同当然是巨大的，但应该指出的是，这份合同不会让Palantir在短时间内获得所有这些收入。最重要的是，不一定所有收入都会流向Palantir Technologies，因为其他供应商（例如硬件供应商）也可能会从合同中获得一些份额。一位更为悲观的分析师指出，政府已要求在2022财年为该合同提供约1亿美元，这表明Palantir需要几年时间才能从该合同中获得所有收入。</blockquote></p><p> Still, this contract is a major positive, I believe, due to several reasons. First, the decision by the US Army to award the contract to Palantir Technologies suggests that Palantir remains a forerunner on a tech basis in the defense space, despite some analysts and commenters believing that Palantir's offering/services are very commoditized. If that were the case, the contract would likely have gone to a different company that sells its services and products at lower prices - remember that Palantir demands gross margins north of 70% on a company-wide basis. Customers would not be willing to pay that much for a commoditized product that could be supplied by anyone.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我认为这份合同是一个重大的积极因素，原因有几个。首先，美国陆军将合同授予Palantir Technologies的决定表明，Palantir仍然是国防领域技术基础的先驱，尽管一些分析师和评论者认为Palantir的产品/服务非常商品化。如果是这样的话，该合同可能会交给另一家以较低价格销售其服务和产品的公司——请记住，Palantir要求全公司毛利率超过70%。顾客不会愿意为任何人都可以提供的商品化产品支付那么多钱。</blockquote></p><p> The contract award by the US Army for such a large single contract also indicates that officials see Palantir as capable of delivering on large-scale contracts, despite the fact that Palantir Technologies is, by revenue and employer count, not a very large company today. Officials seem to believe that Palantir is able to execute well on these contracts, which, in turn, suggests that Palantir should have a good chance of getting other contracts of a similar size in the future.</p><p><blockquote>美国陆军授予如此大的单个合同也表明，官员们认为Palantir有能力交付大规模合同，尽管从收入和雇主数量来看，Palantir Technologies目前并不是一家非常大的公司。官员们似乎相信Palantir能够很好地执行这些合同，这反过来表明Palantir未来应该有很大的机会获得其他类似规模的合同。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir's strong position in the defense space versus possible competitors is also indicated by the fact that Palantir Technologies is one of just four companies with a level 5 (IL-5) Department of Defense SaaS approval:</p><p><blockquote>Palantir Technologies是仅有的四家获得国防部SaaS 5级(IL-5)批准的公司之一，这一事实也表明了Palantir在国防领域相对于可能的竞争对手的强势地位：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9381e77c84c44423e48d0947838946a3\" tg-width=\"1273\" tg-height=\"841\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This alone gives Palantir a major edge versus competitors that are not approved for services this critical. Once Palantir moves to IL-6 approval - at which point the company could also handle DoD classified information - Palantir's moat versus competitors should grow further. Palantir's management believes that this will happen in the foreseeable future and that Palantir will likely be the first company to receive IL-6 approval overall. The defense market could be a huge market opportunity for Palantir Technologies over the next couple of years:</p><p><blockquote>仅此一点就为Palantir提供了相对于未获准提供如此关键服务的竞争对手的主要优势。一旦Palantir获得IL-6批准（届时该公司还可以处理国防部机密信息），Palantir相对于竞争对手的护城河应该会进一步扩大。Palantir管理层认为，这将在可预见的未来发生，Palantir很可能成为第一家获得IL-6整体批准的公司。未来几年，国防市场可能是Palantir Technologies的巨大市场机遇：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63c9bdfc460b29e6a19e05ad9f2b1278\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: nscai.gov (page 67 of full report)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：nscai.gov（完整报告第67页）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence forecasts that AI R&amp;D investments will grow to close to $80 billion by 2030. Palantir Technologies will not be able to address all of that market, as this does include hardware, implementation, etc., but even a couple of percentage points of market share would turn into a $1+ billion a year business. Considering that defense is just one of many markets Palantir Technologies is able to address, this seems highly encouraging - especially when we consider that Palantir is doing around $1.5 billion in revenue this year across all markets the company is active in.</p><p><blockquote>美国国家人工智能安全委员会预测，到2030年，人工智能研发投资将增长至接近800亿美元。Palantir Technologies将无法应对所有市场，因为这包括硬件、实现等，但是即使是几个百分点的市场份额也将变成年产值10亿美元以上的业务。考虑到国防只是Palantir Technologies能够解决的众多市场之一，这似乎非常令人鼓舞——特别是当我们考虑到Palantir今年在该公司活跃的所有市场的收入约为15亿美元时。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir Technologies has, thanks to other contracts with military customers, proven that the US Army contract was not an outlier. Instead, Palantir seems to work well with defense customers, which is why the company gets chosen for new contracts again and again - even by the US&nbsp;Space Force.</p><p><blockquote>得益于与军事客户的其他合同，Palantir Technologies证明了美国陆军合同并非例外。相反，Palantir似乎与国防客户合作良好，这就是为什么该公司一次又一次地被选中签订新合同——甚至被美国太空军选中。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PLTR Stock Forecast</b></p><p><blockquote><b>PLTR库存预测</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir's management believes that the company will be the most important software player in the world one day, and even though I believe that this is far from guaranteed, I do believe that Palantir has massive growth potential for many years to come. Its solutions could have a huge impact in commerce as well as in the military and security fields. Thanks to close relations with customers (as laid out above), a proven track record, and strong talent - which is why stock-based compensation is so high, as that talent is expensive - Palantir should be able to deliver huge revenue growth throughout the 2020s.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的管理层相信，该公司有一天将成为世界上最重要的软件公司，尽管我认为这远不能保证，但我确实相信Palantir在未来许多年都具有巨大的增长潜力。它的解决方案可能会在商业以及军事和安全领域产生巨大影响。得益于与客户的密切关系（如上所述）、良好的业绩记录和强大的人才——这就是股票薪酬如此之高的原因，因为人才价格昂贵——Palantir应该能够在整个2020年代实现巨大的收入增长。</blockquote></p><p> Management believes that revenue in 2024 will come in around $4 billion, and that aligns pretty well with&nbsp;analyst estimates. During its four quarters as a publicly traded company, Palantir has beaten analyst estimates on both lines four times, thus the company is establishing a pretty clear track record of outperforming expectations. It is, of course, not guaranteed that this will happen in the future, too, but I do believe that there is a pretty solid chance that Palantir could generate more than $4 billion in revenue in 2024. Let's still go with the $4 billion estimate and assume that revenue grows by 30% for the following three years, and by 25% between 2028 and 2030. If that were to happen, then Palantir would generate revenue of $17 billion in 2030, which would pencil out to a ~11x increase in nine years. What could a company with $17 billion in annual sales and 25% revenue growth be valued at?</p><p><blockquote>管理层认为2024年的收入将达到40亿美元左右，这与分析师的预期非常一致。在作为上市公司的四个季度中，Palantir在这两条线上四次超出了分析师的预期，因此该公司正在建立一个非常明确的超出预期的业绩记录。当然，不能保证这种情况在未来也会发生，但我确实相信Palantir很有可能在2024年产生超过40亿美元的收入。我们仍然采用40亿美元的估计，并假设未来三年收入增长30%，2028年至2030年间增长25%。如果这种情况发生，那么Palantir到2030年的收入将达到170亿美元，预计九年内将增长约11倍。一家年销售额170亿美元、收入增长25%的公司的估值是多少？</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52c4b159657eb14f408b680d91dd91ca\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Major software players such as Microsoft (MSFT), Salesforce.com (CRM), and Adobe (ADBE) are growing by 15%-25% right now, and trade for 11x to 19x this year's sales today. Considering that Palantir does, in our scenario, grow a little faster than these three companies, a 15x sales multiple does not seem outrageous at all, I believe. Based on estimated sales of $17 billion, this gets us to a market capitalization of $255 billion nine years from now, or roughly 5.3x as much as today's market capitalization of $48 billion. This does, however, not mean that PLTR will see its shares climb by 430%, as we also have to consider the company's share count, which has been rising and which will likely continue to rise. It is hard to forecast where exactly the share count will stand nine years from now, as we don't know the trajectory of future share-based compensation and since PLTR might start to repurchase shares in the future. If we assume that the share count rises by 100 million a year (the share count has risen by 80 million shares over the last year, per YCharts), that pencils out to a share count of ~2.9 billion in 2030. Based on an expected market capitalization of $255 billion, this gets us to a share price of around $90 - or roughly 3.5x as much as today. In other words, if this scenario comes true, investors will generate a 9-year return of around 250%, or roughly 15% a year. That is not as outstanding as the returns one would have gotten when one held AMZN(AMZN)over the last nine years, for example, but an annual return in the ballpark of 15% is still highly attractive, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>微软(MSFT)、Salesforce.com(CRM)和Adobe(ADBE)等主要软件公司目前的增长率为15%-25%，目前的交易价格是今年销售额的11至19倍。考虑到在我们的场景中，Palantir的增长速度确实比这三家公司快一点，我相信15倍的销售倍数似乎一点也不离谱。根据170亿美元的估计销售额，九年后我们的市值将达到2550亿美元，大约是当今480亿美元市值的5.3倍。然而，这并不意味着PLTR的股价将上涨430%，因为我们还必须考虑该公司的股票数量，该数量一直在上升，并且可能会继续上升。很难预测九年后股票数量的确切情况，因为我们不知道未来股权薪酬的轨迹，而且PLTR未来可能会开始回购股票。如果我们假设股票数量每年增加1亿股（根据YCharts的数据，去年股票数量增加了8000万股），那么2030年股票数量将达到约29亿股。根据2550亿美元的预期市值，我们的股价约为90美元，大约是今天的3.5倍。换句话说，如果这种情况成真，投资者将获得250%左右的9年回报率，即每年约15%。例如，这并不像过去九年持有AMZN(AMZN)时获得的回报那么出色，但我相信15%左右的年回报率仍然非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> One can, of course, argue that this scenario is not realistic and that the growth rate should be higher or lower, or that the sales multiple in 2030 should be different. Still, I believe that this is a solid base case scenario that<i>might</i>be on the conservative side, considering Palantir Technologies' large potential across many different industries.</p><p><blockquote>当然，人们可以认为这种情况是不现实的，增长率应该更高或更低，或者2030年的销售倍数应该不同。尽管如此，我相信这是一个可靠的基本情况<i>可能</i>考虑到Palantir Technologies在许多不同行业的巨大潜力，请保持保守。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PLTR Stock: Is Now A Good Time To Buy Or Sell?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>PLTR股票：现在是买入或卖出的好时机吗？</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Palantir is a very different stock compared to what I mostly cover, and what I primarily invest in. At current prices, PLTR looks quite expensive at first sight, trading at ~150x forward earnings. The company, however, offers massive growth potential, attractive fundamentals, and has a huge moat that could grow further once PLTR is IL-6 DoD approved.</p><p><blockquote>与我主要报道的股票和我主要投资的股票相比，Palantir是一只非常不同的股票。按照目前的价格，PLTR乍一看似乎相当昂贵，其预期市盈率约为150倍。然而，该公司提供了巨大的增长潜力、有吸引力的基本面，并且拥有巨大的护城河，一旦PLTR获得IL-6国防部批准，该护城河可能会进一步增长。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir is not a low-risk stock, as the company is, like other high-growth stocks trading at high valuations, vulnerable to interest rate movements. On top of that, profitability has not been proven on a lasting basis yet, and we don't know the trajectory of share-based compensation expenses.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir不是一只低风险股票，因为该公司与其他高估值交易的高增长股票一样，容易受到利率变动的影响。最重要的是，盈利能力尚未得到持久的证实，我们也不知道股权激励费用的轨迹。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, I believe that Palantir is a high-growth company that could deliver double-digit total returns in the long run, and due to a huge and fast-growing addressable market and a wide moat, I am willing to invest in this company - unlike many other highly-valued growth companies that I deem unattractive. Whether Palantir Technologies is a good fit for your portfolio depends on your individual goals and risk tolerance, of course, but I wouldn't be surprised to see PLTR rise at least three-fold by the end of the decade.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我相信Palantir是一家高增长公司，从长远来看可以带来两位数的总回报，并且由于巨大且快速增长的潜在市场和宽阔的护城河，我愿意投资这家公司——不像许多其他我认为没有吸引力的高估值成长型公司。当然，Palantir Technologies是否适合您的投资组合取决于您的个人目标和风险承受能力，但如果PLTR到本世纪末至少增长三倍，我不会感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is This an Income Stream Which Induces Fear?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这是一种引发恐惧的收入来源吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a958be03c050d5cdb47e6524217c231\" tg-width=\"542\" tg-height=\"324\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The primary goal of the&nbsp;Cash Flow Kingdom Income Portfolio&nbsp;is to produce an overall yield in the 7% - 10% range. We accomplish this by combining several different income streams to form an attractive, steady portfolio payout. The portfolio's price can fluctuate, but the income stream remains consistent.</p><p><blockquote>现金流王国收益投资组合的主要目标是产生7%-10%范围内的总体收益率。我们通过结合几种不同的收入流来形成有吸引力、稳定的投资组合支出来实现这一目标。投资组合的价格可能会波动，但收入流保持一致。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir Stock Price Prediction: Outlook After U.S. Army Selection<blockquote>Palantir股价预测：美国陆军选择后的展望</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir Stock Price Prediction: Outlook After U.S. Army Selection<blockquote>Palantir股价预测：美国陆军选择后的展望</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-23 09:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir's US Army contract is huge news for the company due to the contract's large size. The bigger picture is important as well - PLTR is highly competitive and trusted.</li>  <li>PLTR is one of just four IL-5 DoD-certified companies and is moving to IL-6, which should increase its moat further.</li>  <li>The company is seemingly expensive on a profit basis, but when we consider PLTR's growth outlook, shares could be a pretty good investment, nevertheless.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa0d32030c1112ab6f00943f9091b85b\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"516\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Scott Olson/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir的美国陆军合同对该公司来说是一个巨大的新闻，因为合同规模很大。大局也很重要——PLTR极具竞争力且值得信赖。</li><li>PLTR是仅有的四家获得国防部认证的IL-5公司之一，并且正在转向IL-6，这应该会进一步增加其护城河。</li><li>该公司的利润似乎很昂贵，但当我们考虑PLTR的增长前景时，股票可能是一项相当不错的投资。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>斯科特·奥尔森/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir Technologies (PLTR) remains a highly exciting, fast-growing tech company that continues to trade at an expensive valuation. The recent contract with the US Army shows, again, that its proprietary solutions are in a class of their own and that Palantir Technologies is very entrenched in government bodies, which should allow the company to deliver strong growth for many years. Palantir Technologies is not a low-risk pick, but I do believe that, in the long run, investors could see sizeable gains from this stock.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir Technologies(PLTR)仍然是一家非常令人兴奋、快速增长的科技公司，其估值仍然很高。最近与美国陆军签订的合同再次表明，其专有解决方案是独一无二的，并且Palantir Technologies在政府机构中根深蒂固，这应该使该公司能够实现多年的强劲增长。Palantir Technologies并不是一个低风险的选择，但我确实相信，从长远来看，投资者可以从这只股票中看到可观的收益。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir &amp; US Army Contract</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir与美国陆军合同</b></blockquote></p><p> In early October, Palantir Technologies announced that it was selected by the US Army for a contract worth&nbsp;$823 million&nbsp;that will see the company deliver the Army Intelligence data fabric and analytics foundation for the&nbsp;<i>Capability Drop 2</i>&nbsp;(CD-2) program.</p><p><blockquote>10月初，Palantir Technologies宣布被美国陆军选中签订一份价值8.23亿美元的合同，该公司将为<i>能力下降2</i>（CD-2）程序。</blockquote></p><p> For a company like Palantir, which generates revenue of around $1.5 billion a year right now, an $800+ million contract is huge, of course, but it should be noted that this contract will not see Palantir capture all of that revenue in a short period of time. On top of that, not necessarily all of that revenue will go to Palantir Technologies, as other vendors, e.g., for hardware, might take some share of the contract as well. A more bearish analyst&nbsp;noted&nbsp;that the administration has requested around $100 million for that contract in fiscal 2022, suggesting that it will take several years for Palantir to capture all of the revenue from that contract.</p><p><blockquote>对于像Palantir这样目前年收入约为15亿美元的公司来说，一份8亿多美元的合同当然是巨大的，但应该指出的是，这份合同不会让Palantir在短时间内获得所有这些收入。最重要的是，不一定所有收入都会流向Palantir Technologies，因为其他供应商（例如硬件供应商）也可能会从合同中获得一些份额。一位更为悲观的分析师指出，政府已要求在2022财年为该合同提供约1亿美元，这表明Palantir需要几年时间才能从该合同中获得所有收入。</blockquote></p><p> Still, this contract is a major positive, I believe, due to several reasons. First, the decision by the US Army to award the contract to Palantir Technologies suggests that Palantir remains a forerunner on a tech basis in the defense space, despite some analysts and commenters believing that Palantir's offering/services are very commoditized. If that were the case, the contract would likely have gone to a different company that sells its services and products at lower prices - remember that Palantir demands gross margins north of 70% on a company-wide basis. Customers would not be willing to pay that much for a commoditized product that could be supplied by anyone.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我认为这份合同是一个重大的积极因素，原因有几个。首先，美国陆军将合同授予Palantir Technologies的决定表明，Palantir仍然是国防领域技术基础的先驱，尽管一些分析师和评论者认为Palantir的产品/服务非常商品化。如果是这样的话，该合同可能会交给另一家以较低价格销售其服务和产品的公司——请记住，Palantir要求全公司毛利率超过70%。顾客不会愿意为任何人都可以提供的商品化产品支付那么多钱。</blockquote></p><p> The contract award by the US Army for such a large single contract also indicates that officials see Palantir as capable of delivering on large-scale contracts, despite the fact that Palantir Technologies is, by revenue and employer count, not a very large company today. Officials seem to believe that Palantir is able to execute well on these contracts, which, in turn, suggests that Palantir should have a good chance of getting other contracts of a similar size in the future.</p><p><blockquote>美国陆军授予如此大的单个合同也表明，官员们认为Palantir有能力交付大规模合同，尽管从收入和雇主数量来看，Palantir Technologies目前并不是一家非常大的公司。官员们似乎相信Palantir能够很好地执行这些合同，这反过来表明Palantir未来应该有很大的机会获得其他类似规模的合同。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir's strong position in the defense space versus possible competitors is also indicated by the fact that Palantir Technologies is one of just four companies with a level 5 (IL-5) Department of Defense SaaS approval:</p><p><blockquote>Palantir Technologies是仅有的四家获得国防部SaaS 5级(IL-5)批准的公司之一，这一事实也表明了Palantir在国防领域相对于可能的竞争对手的强势地位：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9381e77c84c44423e48d0947838946a3\" tg-width=\"1273\" tg-height=\"841\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This alone gives Palantir a major edge versus competitors that are not approved for services this critical. Once Palantir moves to IL-6 approval - at which point the company could also handle DoD classified information - Palantir's moat versus competitors should grow further. Palantir's management believes that this will happen in the foreseeable future and that Palantir will likely be the first company to receive IL-6 approval overall. The defense market could be a huge market opportunity for Palantir Technologies over the next couple of years:</p><p><blockquote>仅此一点就为Palantir提供了相对于未获准提供如此关键服务的竞争对手的主要优势。一旦Palantir获得IL-6批准（届时该公司还可以处理国防部机密信息），Palantir相对于竞争对手的护城河应该会进一步扩大。Palantir管理层认为，这将在可预见的未来发生，Palantir很可能成为第一家获得IL-6整体批准的公司。未来几年，国防市场可能是Palantir Technologies的巨大市场机遇：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63c9bdfc460b29e6a19e05ad9f2b1278\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: nscai.gov (page 67 of full report)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：nscai.gov（完整报告第67页）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence forecasts that AI R&amp;D investments will grow to close to $80 billion by 2030. Palantir Technologies will not be able to address all of that market, as this does include hardware, implementation, etc., but even a couple of percentage points of market share would turn into a $1+ billion a year business. Considering that defense is just one of many markets Palantir Technologies is able to address, this seems highly encouraging - especially when we consider that Palantir is doing around $1.5 billion in revenue this year across all markets the company is active in.</p><p><blockquote>美国国家人工智能安全委员会预测，到2030年，人工智能研发投资将增长至接近800亿美元。Palantir Technologies将无法应对所有市场，因为这包括硬件、实现等，但是即使是几个百分点的市场份额也将变成年产值10亿美元以上的业务。考虑到国防只是Palantir Technologies能够解决的众多市场之一，这似乎非常令人鼓舞——特别是当我们考虑到Palantir今年在该公司活跃的所有市场的收入约为15亿美元时。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir Technologies has, thanks to other contracts with military customers, proven that the US Army contract was not an outlier. Instead, Palantir seems to work well with defense customers, which is why the company gets chosen for new contracts again and again - even by the US&nbsp;Space Force.</p><p><blockquote>得益于与军事客户的其他合同，Palantir Technologies证明了美国陆军合同并非例外。相反，Palantir似乎与国防客户合作良好，这就是为什么该公司一次又一次地被选中签订新合同——甚至被美国太空军选中。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PLTR Stock Forecast</b></p><p><blockquote><b>PLTR库存预测</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir's management believes that the company will be the most important software player in the world one day, and even though I believe that this is far from guaranteed, I do believe that Palantir has massive growth potential for many years to come. Its solutions could have a huge impact in commerce as well as in the military and security fields. Thanks to close relations with customers (as laid out above), a proven track record, and strong talent - which is why stock-based compensation is so high, as that talent is expensive - Palantir should be able to deliver huge revenue growth throughout the 2020s.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的管理层相信，该公司有一天将成为世界上最重要的软件公司，尽管我认为这远不能保证，但我确实相信Palantir在未来许多年都具有巨大的增长潜力。它的解决方案可能会在商业以及军事和安全领域产生巨大影响。得益于与客户的密切关系（如上所述）、良好的业绩记录和强大的人才——这就是股票薪酬如此之高的原因，因为人才价格昂贵——Palantir应该能够在整个2020年代实现巨大的收入增长。</blockquote></p><p> Management believes that revenue in 2024 will come in around $4 billion, and that aligns pretty well with&nbsp;analyst estimates. During its four quarters as a publicly traded company, Palantir has beaten analyst estimates on both lines four times, thus the company is establishing a pretty clear track record of outperforming expectations. It is, of course, not guaranteed that this will happen in the future, too, but I do believe that there is a pretty solid chance that Palantir could generate more than $4 billion in revenue in 2024. Let's still go with the $4 billion estimate and assume that revenue grows by 30% for the following three years, and by 25% between 2028 and 2030. If that were to happen, then Palantir would generate revenue of $17 billion in 2030, which would pencil out to a ~11x increase in nine years. What could a company with $17 billion in annual sales and 25% revenue growth be valued at?</p><p><blockquote>管理层认为2024年的收入将达到40亿美元左右，这与分析师的预期非常一致。在作为上市公司的四个季度中，Palantir在这两条线上四次超出了分析师的预期，因此该公司正在建立一个非常明确的超出预期的业绩记录。当然，不能保证这种情况在未来也会发生，但我确实相信Palantir很有可能在2024年产生超过40亿美元的收入。我们仍然采用40亿美元的估计，并假设未来三年收入增长30%，2028年至2030年间增长25%。如果这种情况发生，那么Palantir到2030年的收入将达到170亿美元，预计九年内将增长约11倍。一家年销售额170亿美元、收入增长25%的公司的估值是多少？</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52c4b159657eb14f408b680d91dd91ca\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Major software players such as Microsoft (MSFT), Salesforce.com (CRM), and Adobe (ADBE) are growing by 15%-25% right now, and trade for 11x to 19x this year's sales today. Considering that Palantir does, in our scenario, grow a little faster than these three companies, a 15x sales multiple does not seem outrageous at all, I believe. Based on estimated sales of $17 billion, this gets us to a market capitalization of $255 billion nine years from now, or roughly 5.3x as much as today's market capitalization of $48 billion. This does, however, not mean that PLTR will see its shares climb by 430%, as we also have to consider the company's share count, which has been rising and which will likely continue to rise. It is hard to forecast where exactly the share count will stand nine years from now, as we don't know the trajectory of future share-based compensation and since PLTR might start to repurchase shares in the future. If we assume that the share count rises by 100 million a year (the share count has risen by 80 million shares over the last year, per YCharts), that pencils out to a share count of ~2.9 billion in 2030. Based on an expected market capitalization of $255 billion, this gets us to a share price of around $90 - or roughly 3.5x as much as today. In other words, if this scenario comes true, investors will generate a 9-year return of around 250%, or roughly 15% a year. That is not as outstanding as the returns one would have gotten when one held AMZN(AMZN)over the last nine years, for example, but an annual return in the ballpark of 15% is still highly attractive, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>微软(MSFT)、Salesforce.com(CRM)和Adobe(ADBE)等主要软件公司目前的增长率为15%-25%，目前的交易价格是今年销售额的11至19倍。考虑到在我们的场景中，Palantir的增长速度确实比这三家公司快一点，我相信15倍的销售倍数似乎一点也不离谱。根据170亿美元的估计销售额，九年后我们的市值将达到2550亿美元，大约是当今480亿美元市值的5.3倍。然而，这并不意味着PLTR的股价将上涨430%，因为我们还必须考虑该公司的股票数量，该数量一直在上升，并且可能会继续上升。很难预测九年后股票数量的确切情况，因为我们不知道未来股权薪酬的轨迹，而且PLTR未来可能会开始回购股票。如果我们假设股票数量每年增加1亿股（根据YCharts的数据，去年股票数量增加了8000万股），那么2030年股票数量将达到约29亿股。根据2550亿美元的预期市值，我们的股价约为90美元，大约是今天的3.5倍。换句话说，如果这种情况成真，投资者将获得250%左右的9年回报率，即每年约15%。例如，这并不像过去九年持有AMZN(AMZN)时获得的回报那么出色，但我相信15%左右的年回报率仍然非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> One can, of course, argue that this scenario is not realistic and that the growth rate should be higher or lower, or that the sales multiple in 2030 should be different. Still, I believe that this is a solid base case scenario that<i>might</i>be on the conservative side, considering Palantir Technologies' large potential across many different industries.</p><p><blockquote>当然，人们可以认为这种情况是不现实的，增长率应该更高或更低，或者2030年的销售倍数应该不同。尽管如此，我相信这是一个可靠的基本情况<i>可能</i>考虑到Palantir Technologies在许多不同行业的巨大潜力，请保持保守。</blockquote></p><p> <b>PLTR Stock: Is Now A Good Time To Buy Or Sell?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>PLTR股票：现在是买入或卖出的好时机吗？</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Palantir is a very different stock compared to what I mostly cover, and what I primarily invest in. At current prices, PLTR looks quite expensive at first sight, trading at ~150x forward earnings. The company, however, offers massive growth potential, attractive fundamentals, and has a huge moat that could grow further once PLTR is IL-6 DoD approved.</p><p><blockquote>与我主要报道的股票和我主要投资的股票相比，Palantir是一只非常不同的股票。按照目前的价格，PLTR乍一看似乎相当昂贵，其预期市盈率约为150倍。然而，该公司提供了巨大的增长潜力、有吸引力的基本面，并且拥有巨大的护城河，一旦PLTR获得IL-6国防部批准，该护城河可能会进一步增长。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir is not a low-risk stock, as the company is, like other high-growth stocks trading at high valuations, vulnerable to interest rate movements. On top of that, profitability has not been proven on a lasting basis yet, and we don't know the trajectory of share-based compensation expenses.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir不是一只低风险股票，因为该公司与其他高估值交易的高增长股票一样，容易受到利率变动的影响。最重要的是，盈利能力尚未得到持久的证实，我们也不知道股权激励费用的轨迹。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, I believe that Palantir is a high-growth company that could deliver double-digit total returns in the long run, and due to a huge and fast-growing addressable market and a wide moat, I am willing to invest in this company - unlike many other highly-valued growth companies that I deem unattractive. Whether Palantir Technologies is a good fit for your portfolio depends on your individual goals and risk tolerance, of course, but I wouldn't be surprised to see PLTR rise at least three-fold by the end of the decade.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我相信Palantir是一家高增长公司，从长远来看可以带来两位数的总回报，并且由于巨大且快速增长的潜在市场和宽阔的护城河，我愿意投资这家公司——不像许多其他我认为没有吸引力的高估值成长型公司。当然，Palantir Technologies是否适合您的投资组合取决于您的个人目标和风险承受能力，但如果PLTR到本世纪末至少增长三倍，我不会感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is This an Income Stream Which Induces Fear?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这是一种引发恐惧的收入来源吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a958be03c050d5cdb47e6524217c231\" tg-width=\"542\" tg-height=\"324\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The primary goal of the&nbsp;Cash Flow Kingdom Income Portfolio&nbsp;is to produce an overall yield in the 7% - 10% range. We accomplish this by combining several different income streams to form an attractive, steady portfolio payout. The portfolio's price can fluctuate, but the income stream remains consistent.</p><p><blockquote>现金流王国收益投资组合的主要目标是产生7%-10%范围内的总体收益率。我们通过结合几种不同的收入流来形成有吸引力、稳定的投资组合支出来实现这一目标。投资组合的价格可能会波动，但收入流保持一致。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4461220-palantir-stock-price-prediction\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4461220-palantir-stock-price-prediction","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177255738","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir's US Army contract is huge news for the company due to the contract's large size. The bigger picture is important as well - PLTR is highly competitive and trusted.\nPLTR is one of just four IL-5 DoD-certified companies and is moving to IL-6, which should increase its moat further.\nThe company is seemingly expensive on a profit basis, but when we consider PLTR's growth outlook, shares could be a pretty good investment, nevertheless.\n\nScott Olson/Getty Images News\nArticle Thesis\nPalantir Technologies (PLTR) remains a highly exciting, fast-growing tech company that continues to trade at an expensive valuation. The recent contract with the US Army shows, again, that its proprietary solutions are in a class of their own and that Palantir Technologies is very entrenched in government bodies, which should allow the company to deliver strong growth for many years. Palantir Technologies is not a low-risk pick, but I do believe that, in the long run, investors could see sizeable gains from this stock.\nPalantir & US Army Contract\nIn early October, Palantir Technologies announced that it was selected by the US Army for a contract worth $823 million that will see the company deliver the Army Intelligence data fabric and analytics foundation for the Capability Drop 2 (CD-2) program.\nFor a company like Palantir, which generates revenue of around $1.5 billion a year right now, an $800+ million contract is huge, of course, but it should be noted that this contract will not see Palantir capture all of that revenue in a short period of time. On top of that, not necessarily all of that revenue will go to Palantir Technologies, as other vendors, e.g., for hardware, might take some share of the contract as well. A more bearish analyst noted that the administration has requested around $100 million for that contract in fiscal 2022, suggesting that it will take several years for Palantir to capture all of the revenue from that contract.\nStill, this contract is a major positive, I believe, due to several reasons. First, the decision by the US Army to award the contract to Palantir Technologies suggests that Palantir remains a forerunner on a tech basis in the defense space, despite some analysts and commenters believing that Palantir's offering/services are very commoditized. If that were the case, the contract would likely have gone to a different company that sells its services and products at lower prices - remember that Palantir demands gross margins north of 70% on a company-wide basis. Customers would not be willing to pay that much for a commoditized product that could be supplied by anyone.\nThe contract award by the US Army for such a large single contract also indicates that officials see Palantir as capable of delivering on large-scale contracts, despite the fact that Palantir Technologies is, by revenue and employer count, not a very large company today. Officials seem to believe that Palantir is able to execute well on these contracts, which, in turn, suggests that Palantir should have a good chance of getting other contracts of a similar size in the future.\nPalantir's strong position in the defense space versus possible competitors is also indicated by the fact that Palantir Technologies is one of just four companies with a level 5 (IL-5) Department of Defense SaaS approval:\nSource: Palantir\nThis alone gives Palantir a major edge versus competitors that are not approved for services this critical. Once Palantir moves to IL-6 approval - at which point the company could also handle DoD classified information - Palantir's moat versus competitors should grow further. Palantir's management believes that this will happen in the foreseeable future and that Palantir will likely be the first company to receive IL-6 approval overall. The defense market could be a huge market opportunity for Palantir Technologies over the next couple of years:\nSource: nscai.gov (page 67 of full report)\nThe National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence forecasts that AI R&D investments will grow to close to $80 billion by 2030. Palantir Technologies will not be able to address all of that market, as this does include hardware, implementation, etc., but even a couple of percentage points of market share would turn into a $1+ billion a year business. Considering that defense is just one of many markets Palantir Technologies is able to address, this seems highly encouraging - especially when we consider that Palantir is doing around $1.5 billion in revenue this year across all markets the company is active in.\nPalantir Technologies has, thanks to other contracts with military customers, proven that the US Army contract was not an outlier. Instead, Palantir seems to work well with defense customers, which is why the company gets chosen for new contracts again and again - even by the US Space Force.\nPLTR Stock Forecast\nPalantir's management believes that the company will be the most important software player in the world one day, and even though I believe that this is far from guaranteed, I do believe that Palantir has massive growth potential for many years to come. Its solutions could have a huge impact in commerce as well as in the military and security fields. Thanks to close relations with customers (as laid out above), a proven track record, and strong talent - which is why stock-based compensation is so high, as that talent is expensive - Palantir should be able to deliver huge revenue growth throughout the 2020s.\nManagement believes that revenue in 2024 will come in around $4 billion, and that aligns pretty well with analyst estimates. During its four quarters as a publicly traded company, Palantir has beaten analyst estimates on both lines four times, thus the company is establishing a pretty clear track record of outperforming expectations. It is, of course, not guaranteed that this will happen in the future, too, but I do believe that there is a pretty solid chance that Palantir could generate more than $4 billion in revenue in 2024. Let's still go with the $4 billion estimate and assume that revenue grows by 30% for the following three years, and by 25% between 2028 and 2030. If that were to happen, then Palantir would generate revenue of $17 billion in 2030, which would pencil out to a ~11x increase in nine years. What could a company with $17 billion in annual sales and 25% revenue growth be valued at?\nData by YCharts\nMajor software players such as Microsoft (MSFT), Salesforce.com (CRM), and Adobe (ADBE) are growing by 15%-25% right now, and trade for 11x to 19x this year's sales today. Considering that Palantir does, in our scenario, grow a little faster than these three companies, a 15x sales multiple does not seem outrageous at all, I believe. Based on estimated sales of $17 billion, this gets us to a market capitalization of $255 billion nine years from now, or roughly 5.3x as much as today's market capitalization of $48 billion. This does, however, not mean that PLTR will see its shares climb by 430%, as we also have to consider the company's share count, which has been rising and which will likely continue to rise. It is hard to forecast where exactly the share count will stand nine years from now, as we don't know the trajectory of future share-based compensation and since PLTR might start to repurchase shares in the future. If we assume that the share count rises by 100 million a year (the share count has risen by 80 million shares over the last year, per YCharts), that pencils out to a share count of ~2.9 billion in 2030. Based on an expected market capitalization of $255 billion, this gets us to a share price of around $90 - or roughly 3.5x as much as today. In other words, if this scenario comes true, investors will generate a 9-year return of around 250%, or roughly 15% a year. That is not as outstanding as the returns one would have gotten when one held AMZN(AMZN)over the last nine years, for example, but an annual return in the ballpark of 15% is still highly attractive, I believe.\nOne can, of course, argue that this scenario is not realistic and that the growth rate should be higher or lower, or that the sales multiple in 2030 should be different. Still, I believe that this is a solid base case scenario thatmightbe on the conservative side, considering Palantir Technologies' large potential across many different industries.\nPLTR Stock: Is Now A Good Time To Buy Or Sell?\nPalantir is a very different stock compared to what I mostly cover, and what I primarily invest in. At current prices, PLTR looks quite expensive at first sight, trading at ~150x forward earnings. The company, however, offers massive growth potential, attractive fundamentals, and has a huge moat that could grow further once PLTR is IL-6 DoD approved.\nPalantir is not a low-risk stock, as the company is, like other high-growth stocks trading at high valuations, vulnerable to interest rate movements. On top of that, profitability has not been proven on a lasting basis yet, and we don't know the trajectory of share-based compensation expenses.\nNevertheless, I believe that Palantir is a high-growth company that could deliver double-digit total returns in the long run, and due to a huge and fast-growing addressable market and a wide moat, I am willing to invest in this company - unlike many other highly-valued growth companies that I deem unattractive. Whether Palantir Technologies is a good fit for your portfolio depends on your individual goals and risk tolerance, of course, but I wouldn't be surprised to see PLTR rise at least three-fold by the end of the decade.\nIs This an Income Stream Which Induces Fear?\n\nThe primary goal of the Cash Flow Kingdom Income Portfolio is to produce an overall yield in the 7% - 10% range. We accomplish this by combining several different income streams to form an attractive, steady portfolio payout. The portfolio's price can fluctuate, but the income stream remains consistent.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2208,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":820495894,"gmtCreate":1633412001628,"gmtModify":1633412001725,"author":{"id":"3557811768798613","authorId":"3557811768798613","name":"ruuderay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72f19bc2c47f8b3f3e7e15d70515a920","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557811768798613","idStr":"3557811768798613"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"So how?","listText":"So how?","text":"So how?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/820495894","repostId":"2172873995","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3273,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":861909124,"gmtCreate":1632446132768,"gmtModify":1632723952520,"author":{"id":"3557811768798613","authorId":"3557811768798613","name":"ruuderay","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72f19bc2c47f8b3f3e7e15d70515a920","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557811768798613","idStr":"3557811768798613"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Need to get profits!","listText":"Need to get profits!","text":"Need to get 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