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- kationkation
  ·07-18
  降了个寂寞
  Naspers集团在腾讯的持股比例降至22.99%
  平均股价为516.0776港元。
  Naspers集团在腾讯的持股比例降至22.99%
  127 评论
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- kationkation
  ·04-18
  奈飞这周的期权iv高于下周的原因是发布会在收市一个半小时以内，这段时间期权持有人可以手动行权，所以这周期权才是真正受业绩影响。市场一般都是对的，执漏要三思啊。楼主要考虑清楚再发文啊。
  1,148 评论
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- kationkation
  ·03-18
  他属于搞钱厉害那种
  854 评论
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- kationkation
  ·02-20
  $微软(MSFT)$ 定投更省心。
  988 评论
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- kationkation
  ·02-20
  $微软(MSFT)$
  1,093 评论
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- kationkation
  ·01-28
  $VST 20250131 155.0 CALL$ 小资金抄个底
  1,282 评论
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- kationkation
  ·01-01
  盘面骗不了筹码，直接小作文恐吓了。
  技术分析浮现英伟达股价隐忧？图形模式与2018年暴跌60%前夕相似
  Franke对该股的分析重点放在图表模式与2018年的相似之处，称对这只高飞股票的投资者来说，历史通常是重复的，并担忧英伟达的下跌幅度远远超过华尔街传统观点的预期。2018今天的价格和势头序列与截至2018年10月前的12个月惊人地相似。英伟达似乎又回到了2018年10月第二周的位置，当时该股开启面向12月暴跌60%的趋势。
  技术分析浮现英伟达股价隐忧？图形模式与2018年暴跌60%前夕相似
  1,500 评论
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- kationkation
  ·2024-12-18
  $特斯拉 VERTICAL 241220 CALL 525.0/CALL 505.0$ 捡点小确幸
  1,470 评论
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- kationkation
  ·2024-12-17
  $特斯拉(TSLA)$ 不要说做空了，就算我做 covered call 都亏麻了[流泪]
  1,404 评论
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- kationkation
  ·2024-12-11
  期权小班长的帖子都很有思考性，值得支持。
  1,289 评论
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17:54</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>香港交易所信息显示，腾讯大股东、南非Naspers集团在腾讯控股的持股比例于07月17日从23.00%降至22.99%，平均股价为516.0776港元。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7799eeb7043b8caaf3d109c3b13109e","relate_stocks":{"00700":"腾讯控股"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148840909","content_text":"香港交易所信息显示，腾讯大股东、南非Naspers集团在腾讯控股的持股比例于07月17日从23.00%降至22.99%，平均股价为516.0776港元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00700":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":127,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":425785390334520,"gmtCreate":1744975221572,"gmtModify":1744975224668,"author":{"id":"3559606446215009","authorId":"3559606446215009","name":"kation","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07073bd098126e5362f2155a4d3fd301","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559606446215009","authorIdStr":"3559606446215009"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"奈飞这周的期权iv高于下周的原因是发布会在收市一个半小时以内，这段时间期权持有人可以手动行权，所以这周期权才是真正受业绩影响。市场一般都是对的，执漏要三思啊。楼主要考虑清楚再发文啊。","listText":"奈飞这周的期权iv高于下周的原因是发布会在收市一个半小时以内，这段时间期权持有人可以手动行权，所以这周期权才是真正受业绩影响。市场一般都是对的，执漏要三思啊。楼主要考虑清楚再发文啊。","text":"奈飞这周的期权iv高于下周的原因是发布会在收市一个半小时以内，这段时间期权持有人可以手动行权，所以这周期权才是真正受业绩影响。市场一般都是对的，执漏要三思啊。楼主要考虑清楚再发文啊。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/425785390334520","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1148,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":414633736659120,"gmtCreate":1742266742727,"gmtModify":1742266744903,"author":{"id":"3559606446215009","authorId":"3559606446215009","name":"kation","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07073bd098126e5362f2155a4d3fd301","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559606446215009","authorIdStr":"3559606446215009"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"他属于搞钱厉害那种","listText":"他属于搞钱厉害那种","text":"他属于搞钱厉害那种","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/414633736659120","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":854,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":405582096847472,"gmtCreate":1740046123335,"gmtModify":1740047572935,"author":{"id":"3559606446215009","authorId":"3559606446215009","name":"kation","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07073bd098126e5362f2155a4d3fd301","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559606446215009","authorIdStr":"3559606446215009"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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155.0 CALL\">$VST 20250131 155.0 CALL$ </a> 小资金抄个底","text":"$VST 20250131 155.0 CALL$ 小资金抄个底","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3376734796805b49d386484ff54600f","width":"1208","height":"1946"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/397246997725480","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1282,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":387700416491632,"gmtCreate":1735691713099,"gmtModify":1735691715754,"author":{"id":"3559606446215009","authorId":"3559606446215009","name":"kation","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07073bd098126e5362f2155a4d3fd301","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559606446215009","authorIdStr":"3559606446215009"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"盘面骗不了筹码，直接小作文恐吓了。","listText":"盘面骗不了筹码，直接小作文恐吓了。","text":"盘面骗不了筹码，直接小作文恐吓了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/387700416491632","repostId":"2495664813","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2495664813","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1735639814,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2495664813?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-12-31 18:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"技术分析浮现英伟达股价隐忧？图形模式与2018年暴跌60%前夕相似","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2495664813","media":"智通财经","summary":"Franke对该股的分析重点放在图表模式与2018年的相似之处，称对这只高飞股票的投资者来说，历史通常是重复的，并担忧英伟达的下跌幅度远远超过华尔街传统观点的预期。2018今天的价格和势头序列与截至2018年10月前的12个月惊人地相似。英伟达似乎又回到了2018年10月第二周的位置，当时该股开启面向12月暴跌60%的趋势。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>12月31日，在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>股价一路走高的路上，市场也对该公司的强劲表现提出了部分质疑，有财经分析师称从技术分析层面上英伟达或在不久的将来面临大幅下跌。分析师认为，该公司还面临着来自周期性半导体需求、潜在的特朗普关税和未来竞争的重大经营风险，尤其是来自Alphabet公司新推出的具有人工智能含义的Willow量子芯片。</p><p>财经分析师Paul Franke近日发布了一篇关于英伟达的分析文章，他曾在7月的一篇英伟达文章里讨论了易动指数(Ease-of-Movement)跌至创纪录低点的走势。他表示，由于有限的成交量能够大幅压低价格，这是一个看涨的投资者撤回订单的信号。自那以后，该股股价又上涨了25%，对股东来说，一切似乎都很好，他们认为这只股票不是风险资产，而是一条通往财富(人工智能泡沫狂热)的单行道。</p><p>因此，如果在过去几年里刚接触这只股票，投资者可能不明白半导体行业需求非常具有周期性，即使是很小的经济变化也会影响企业的资本支出决策(英伟达的客户)。而且，由于竞争激烈的技术商业模式，像英伟达这样的芯片制造商确实一直面临着推出新产品以攻占市场份额。</p><p>管理层控制之外的宏观经济变化可能会严重拖累英伟达未来几个季度的业务。市场将担忧候任总统特朗普可能会对海外制造的芯片(几乎所有英伟达销售的芯片)征收关税，以及其他政策变化对2025年剩余时间内企业/消费者信心的影响。</p><p>在竞争方面，几周前Alphabet发布的Willow量子芯片引起了人们的严重担忧。不仅<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">博通</a>(AVGO.US)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>(AMZN.US)、AMD(AMD.US)等科技巨头正在开发自己的人工智能芯片，而且在一两年的时间里，Willow的产品很容易取代对最畅销(而且利润丰厚)的英伟达产品的需求。这将彻底颠覆在2023- 2024年期间拥有中央处理硬件领先的人工智能开发商的极端乐观观点。</p><p>而且，如果<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>在Willow芯片的科学成就被证明是准确的，它可能是过去50年来人类最伟大的发明之一。就其对人类技术发展的影响而言，Willow算力的贡献可能堪比电动汽车或智能手机的发明。</p><p>Paul Franke认为，明年买入英伟达的基本面增长理由将很快消失，因而将目光投向了图表形态，自秋季以来它缺乏任何动能。他还表示，尤其悲观的是，2024年下半年的股价趋势看起来与2018年几乎相同，当年年底股价暴跌约60%。</p><p>Franke对该股的分析重点放在图表模式与2018年的相似之处，称对这只高飞股票的投资者来说，历史通常是重复的，并担忧英伟达的下跌幅度远远超过华尔街传统观点的预期。他对英伟达在周期性和竞争激烈的计算机芯片行业永葆优势表示悲观，并维持对英伟达未来12个月展望的强烈卖出评级。</p><p><strong>动量交易模式接近枯竭</strong></p><p>Franke绘制的英伟达12个月的每日交易图表如下。值得注意的是，目前每股137美元的价格实际上低于6个月前6月每股144美元的高点。价格也跌破了12月重要的50日移动均线，而距离200日移动均线也不远。</p><p>自11月初以来，20天财金(Chaikin)资金流指数(一种回顾过去一个月交易积累趋势的公式)一直在持平至下降。这是全年购买兴趣最弱的趋势。</p><p>另一个问题是，自5月下旬以来，平衡交易量(On Balance Volume)一直持平(根据收盘价的高低，加上或减去每日交易量总数)。通常，股价大幅上涨是由强劲的OBV变动支撑的。</p><p>最后，或许也是最重要的一点，28天平均方向线的计算表明，完全缺乏价格变化的信念。这一波动性指标回顾了六周的交易数据，突显出明显缺乏买入兴趣。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c42684ba07abe847b3be27fa6c9e2f1\" alt=\"2018\" title=\"2018\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"478\"/><span>2018</span></p><p>今天的价格和势头序列与截至2018年10月前的12个月惊人地相似。下图为这一周期，具有相同的动量指标和基本图表参数。</p><p>英伟达似乎又回到了2018年10月第二周的位置，当时该股开启面向12月暴跌60%的趋势。</p><p>唯一真正的区别是，与2018年的经历相比，目前的格局可能更加疲惫，动力更弱。今天的CMF和ADX读数甚至低于六年前，而OBV模式几乎是镜像。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80baa333210e242f895ebb25ceffe110\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"471\"/></p><p>对于英伟达的股东来说，2024年12月的坏消息是，对于潜在的情绪逆转，人工智能的兴奋程度将更为极端，估值过高的问题也是如此。这两种情况都可能意味着，在不久的将来，交易量和失衡与买入订单流量的关系可能会比2018年底严重得多。</p><p><strong>股价或下跌50%-60%</strong></p><p>Franke称，无论全球竞争水平或经济活动如何，到2025年，英伟达盈利增长率和利润率几乎肯定会下降，而与去年相比，今年出现了小幅下滑。上述推断纯粹是基于大数定律(一种数学概念，认为规模大量增加必然会减缓公司增长速度)。随着该股市值达到惊人的3.4万亿美元，在人类历史上，没有任何其他“周期性”商业模式的名义价值比这更高。在“相对”规模上超过英伟达占美国GDP11%比重的公司只有1911年政府强制拆分之前的标准石油公司(Standard Oil)。</p><p>Franke认为，未来几年，预计英伟达销售额和每股收益的增长率将显著放缓。华尔街分析师的普遍看法包括，宏观经济预测不错，对英伟达产品征收的关税有限，人工智能芯片竞争对手对业绩的拖累依然微弱。不过，如果这些因素中的任何一个或全部发生变化，那么与实际运营结果相比，华尔街的预测数字将被显著夸大。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f36d8e356e8c1bd65496014c5f052c3\" tg-width=\"602\" tg-height=\"241\"/></p><p>此外，Seeking Alpha的量化排名系统继续将英伟达的估值评为“F”分，唯一的积极数据点是对持续强劲盈利增长的预期。如果这一基本面数据动摇，2025-26年期间，股价或将面临巨大跌幅。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbf32ade595dfafa0cdd87e63ac1f464\" tg-width=\"597\" tg-height=\"646\"/></p><p>另一个令多头担忧的问题是，过去一年里，内部人士卖出与买入的比率为20:1，而在最近三个月里，这一比率迅速升至60:1，其中包括高层管理人员和首席执行官黄仁勋(Jensen Huang)的减持。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9dc383c90191eb3c99d9a2c2ab0552a1\" tg-width=\"597\" tg-height=\"383\"/></p><p>在这个阶段有什么好的方面?Franke认为，要想让英伟达的股价在短期内突破每股150美元，需要达到英伟达的人工智能芯片主导地位保持不变、美国股市在2025年的头几个月再次整体上涨、美国经济不会受到特朗普/共和党政府破坏性政策变化的影响，以及该公司在亚洲/台湾以外的供应链保持稳定。</p><p>在完全忽略12月下旬耗尽的图表动量结构的同时，上述假设或许意味着很多。因而，Franke重申其观点，繁荣将转向萧条，尤其是在周期性的半导体行业，并继续将英伟达股票12个月展望的评级定为强力卖出。他称，如果上述看涨变量中有一个很快出现问题，就无法排除股价下跌50%至60%的可能性。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n技术分析浮现英伟达股价隐忧？图形模式与2018年暴跌60%前夕相似\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-12-31 18:10 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1231704.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>12月31日，在英伟达股价一路走高的路上，市场也对该公司的强劲表现提出了部分质疑，有财经分析师称从技术分析层面上英伟达或在不久的将来面临大幅下跌。分析师认为，该公司还面临着来自周期性半导体需求、潜在的特朗普关税和未来竞争的重大经营风险，尤其是来自Alphabet公司新推出的具有人工智能含义的Willow量子芯片。财经分析师Paul Franke近日发布了一篇关于英伟达的分析文章，他曾在7月的一篇...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1231704.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f1c866c487eb9e101f73a62d4495ce9","relate_stocks":{"NVDY":"YIELDMAX NVDA OPTION INCOME STRATEGY ETF","LU2403377893.USD":"ALLIANZ SELECT INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (USD) INC","LU0106261372.USD":"SCHRODER ISF US LARGE CAP \"A\" ACC","LU0345769128.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2097344431.USD":"SCHRODER ISF SUSTAINABLE MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHDG) INC","IE00BFSS7M15.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Acc SGD-H","NVD3.UK":"LS 3X 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Franke近日发布了一篇关于英伟达的分析文章，他曾在7月的一篇英伟达文章里讨论了易动指数(Ease-of-Movement)跌至创纪录低点的走势。他表示，由于有限的成交量能够大幅压低价格，这是一个看涨的投资者撤回订单的信号。自那以后，该股股价又上涨了25%，对股东来说，一切似乎都很好，他们认为这只股票不是风险资产，而是一条通往财富(人工智能泡沫狂热)的单行道。因此，如果在过去几年里刚接触这只股票，投资者可能不明白半导体行业需求非常具有周期性，即使是很小的经济变化也会影响企业的资本支出决策(英伟达的客户)。而且，由于竞争激烈的技术商业模式，像英伟达这样的芯片制造商确实一直面临着推出新产品以攻占市场份额。管理层控制之外的宏观经济变化可能会严重拖累英伟达未来几个季度的业务。市场将担忧候任总统特朗普可能会对海外制造的芯片(几乎所有英伟达销售的芯片)征收关税，以及其他政策变化对2025年剩余时间内企业/消费者信心的影响。在竞争方面，几周前Alphabet发布的Willow量子芯片引起了人们的严重担忧。不仅博通(AVGO.US)、亚马逊(AMZN.US)、AMD(AMD.US)等科技巨头正在开发自己的人工智能芯片，而且在一两年的时间里，Willow的产品很容易取代对最畅销(而且利润丰厚)的英伟达产品的需求。这将彻底颠覆在2023- 2024年期间拥有中央处理硬件领先的人工智能开发商的极端乐观观点。而且，如果谷歌在Willow芯片的科学成就被证明是准确的，它可能是过去50年来人类最伟大的发明之一。就其对人类技术发展的影响而言，Willow算力的贡献可能堪比电动汽车或智能手机的发明。Paul Franke认为，明年买入英伟达的基本面增长理由将很快消失，因而将目光投向了图表形态，自秋季以来它缺乏任何动能。他还表示，尤其悲观的是，2024年下半年的股价趋势看起来与2018年几乎相同，当年年底股价暴跌约60%。Franke对该股的分析重点放在图表模式与2018年的相似之处，称对这只高飞股票的投资者来说，历史通常是重复的，并担忧英伟达的下跌幅度远远超过华尔街传统观点的预期。他对英伟达在周期性和竞争激烈的计算机芯片行业永葆优势表示悲观，并维持对英伟达未来12个月展望的强烈卖出评级。动量交易模式接近枯竭Franke绘制的英伟达12个月的每日交易图表如下。值得注意的是，目前每股137美元的价格实际上低于6个月前6月每股144美元的高点。价格也跌破了12月重要的50日移动均线，而距离200日移动均线也不远。自11月初以来，20天财金(Chaikin)资金流指数(一种回顾过去一个月交易积累趋势的公式)一直在持平至下降。这是全年购买兴趣最弱的趋势。另一个问题是，自5月下旬以来，平衡交易量(On Balance Volume)一直持平(根据收盘价的高低，加上或减去每日交易量总数)。通常，股价大幅上涨是由强劲的OBV变动支撑的。最后，或许也是最重要的一点，28天平均方向线的计算表明，完全缺乏价格变化的信念。这一波动性指标回顾了六周的交易数据，突显出明显缺乏买入兴趣。2018今天的价格和势头序列与截至2018年10月前的12个月惊人地相似。下图为这一周期，具有相同的动量指标和基本图表参数。英伟达似乎又回到了2018年10月第二周的位置，当时该股开启面向12月暴跌60%的趋势。唯一真正的区别是，与2018年的经历相比，目前的格局可能更加疲惫，动力更弱。今天的CMF和ADX读数甚至低于六年前，而OBV模式几乎是镜像。对于英伟达的股东来说，2024年12月的坏消息是，对于潜在的情绪逆转，人工智能的兴奋程度将更为极端，估值过高的问题也是如此。这两种情况都可能意味着，在不久的将来，交易量和失衡与买入订单流量的关系可能会比2018年底严重得多。股价或下跌50%-60%Franke称，无论全球竞争水平或经济活动如何，到2025年，英伟达盈利增长率和利润率几乎肯定会下降，而与去年相比，今年出现了小幅下滑。上述推断纯粹是基于大数定律(一种数学概念，认为规模大量增加必然会减缓公司增长速度)。随着该股市值达到惊人的3.4万亿美元，在人类历史上，没有任何其他“周期性”商业模式的名义价值比这更高。在“相对”规模上超过英伟达占美国GDP11%比重的公司只有1911年政府强制拆分之前的标准石油公司(Standard Oil)。Franke认为，未来几年，预计英伟达销售额和每股收益的增长率将显著放缓。华尔街分析师的普遍看法包括，宏观经济预测不错，对英伟达产品征收的关税有限，人工智能芯片竞争对手对业绩的拖累依然微弱。不过，如果这些因素中的任何一个或全部发生变化，那么与实际运营结果相比，华尔街的预测数字将被显著夸大。此外，Seeking Alpha的量化排名系统继续将英伟达的估值评为“F”分，唯一的积极数据点是对持续强劲盈利增长的预期。如果这一基本面数据动摇，2025-26年期间，股价或将面临巨大跌幅。另一个令多头担忧的问题是，过去一年里，内部人士卖出与买入的比率为20:1，而在最近三个月里，这一比率迅速升至60:1，其中包括高层管理人员和首席执行官黄仁勋(Jensen 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