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LiJi

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- LiJiLiJi
  ·2021-09-29
  free money
  1,556 评论
  点赞
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- LiJiLiJi
  ·2021-08-16
  $NIO Inc.(NIO)$like please
  1,601 2
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- LiJiLiJi
  ·2021-08-15
  $FVRR 20211015 180.0 PUT(FVRR)$my monthly income
  1,761 评论
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- LiJiLiJi
  ·2021-07-29
  anyone invested?
  Tilray: Same Tired Story
  Summary Tilray reported misleading revenue growth in FQ4 due to not comparing pro-forma revenue fro
  Tilray: Same Tired Story
  1,742 评论
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- LiJiLiJi
  ·2021-07-29
  $FUBO 20210730 30.0 PUT(FUBO)$let’s do it
  1,833 评论
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- LiJiLiJi
  ·2021-07-21
  $NIO 20210917 35.0 PUT(NIO)$huat ah!
  1,383 评论
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- LiJiLiJi
  ·2021-06-15
  when?
  Fed Poised to Crawl Onto ‘Knife Edge’ to Rein In Record Largesse
  Fed wants to normalize relations with Congress, markets Policy makers may begin months-long talks on
  Fed Poised to Crawl Onto ‘Knife Edge’ to Rein In Record Largesse
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- LiJiLiJi
  ·2021-06-14
  $NIO Inc.(NIO)$happy!
  2,179 评论
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- LiJiLiJi
  ·2021-06-03
  $Clover Health Corp(CLOV)$i think this is worth a shot.
  2,758 评论
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- LiJiLiJi
  ·2021-06-02
  $NIO Inc.(NIO)$finally we see some light
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money","listText":"free money","text":"free money","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d42fdcb8521195ffbf47a367f70b353","width":"750","height":"1570"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865070129","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1556,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":830854100,"gmtCreate":1629065039300,"gmtModify":1631890986354,"author":{"id":"3563864010203724","authorId":"3563864010203724","name":"LiJi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16cb71d421bb5155595bf0414f2d5325","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563864010203724","authorIdStr":"3563864010203724"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>like please&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>like please&nbsp;","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$like please","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ae0f6071dc3b9522d5413378773d3d4","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/830854100","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1601,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":830317928,"gmtCreate":1629010953964,"gmtModify":1631888317002,"author":{"id":"3563864010203724","authorId":"3563864010203724","name":"LiJi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16cb71d421bb5155595bf0414f2d5325","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563864010203724","authorIdStr":"3563864010203724"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FVRR\">$FVRR 20211015 180.0 PUT(FVRR)$</a>my monthly income","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FVRR\">$FVRR 20211015 180.0 PUT(FVRR)$</a>my monthly income","text":"$FVRR 20211015 180.0 PUT(FVRR)$my monthly income","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee0d8fb30d0dc875826d42bb4513e2d9","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/830317928","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1761,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808163293,"gmtCreate":1627565605212,"gmtModify":1631890986365,"author":{"id":"3563864010203724","authorId":"3563864010203724","name":"LiJi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16cb71d421bb5155595bf0414f2d5325","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563864010203724","authorIdStr":"3563864010203724"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"anyone invested?","listText":"anyone invested?","text":"anyone invested?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808163293","repostId":"1147830889","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147830889","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627564912,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1147830889?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-29 21:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tilray: Same Tired Story","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147830889","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTilray reported misleading revenue growth in FQ4 due to not comparing pro-forma revenue fro","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Tilray reported misleading revenue growth in FQ4 due to not comparing pro-forma revenue from the merger for the quarter.</li>\n <li>The Canadian cannabis company is still struggling to grow due to lockdowns in Canada and Germany.</li>\n <li>The stock trades at substantial premium P/S multiple while risks exist on a U.S. acquisition plan.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1993e3b20ddec8572a2197dc22222ad9\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1126\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>dvulikaia/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>Before the market open,<b>Tilray</b>(TLRY)&nbsp;reported FQ4 results&nbsp;to provide the first quarterly results of the combined Aphria and Tilray operations. Unfortunately, the Canadian cannabis company failed to provide pro-forma numbers for the combination. My&nbsp;investment thesis&nbsp;remains Bearish on the stock after the 20% rally in early trading.</p>\n<p><b>Confusing Quarter</b></p>\n<p>The new Tilray reported May quarterly numbers that only included four weeks of results from the old Tilray. Revenues were reported as reaching $142.2 million for 25% growth from last FQ4, but the numbers are absolutely worthless without the pro-forma numbers. Last FQ4, the new Tilray reported revenue of $159.8 million without even including revenues from SweetWater which now accounts for over $15 million of net revenues.</p>\n<p>The combined companies reported prior-quarter revenue of $167.3 million. Those revenues were down from $180.2 million in FQ2 so FQ4 revenues of $142.2 million aren't impressive on first look without parsing out the additional 9 weeks of revenues from Tilray. Unless Tilray had over $30 million in revenue from the unreported period, the combined company wouldn't have generated organic growth in the quarter.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c0dd681f62e6505699e94e0c8ca9517\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Tilray FQ4'21 presentation</span></p>\n<p>Tilray continues to face lockdown issues in both Canada and Europe. Cannabis and wellness net revenues both peaked in the November quarter as lockdowns started restricting sales in their key cannabis markets.</p>\n<p>What the market does know is that beverage alcohol net revenues reached $15.9 million in the quarter, up from $11.9 million in the prior quarter. The distribution revenue from CC Pharma in Germany dipped again to $66.8 million from $70.3 million in the prior quarter.</p>\n<p>Those revenues were both from the Aphria side where the new Tilray reported full revenue amounts for the period. The Wellness revenue came from the old Tilray and was $5.8 million in the May quarter while revenues were $16.6 million in the pro-forma February quarter results above. These revenues appeared to slightly grow from the prior quarter, but the May quarter numbers aren't fully known.</p>\n<p>The biggest question is the combined cannabis revenues where the business overlapped with both prior companies. The new Tilray reported May quarterly net cannabis revenue of $53.7 million. The combined company reported February net cannabis revenues of $68.5 million.</p>\n<p>The standalone Aphria reported February net cannabis revenue of $41.2 million (C$51. million) leaving just $27.3 million net revenues from Tilray. The amount would suggest Tilray only contributed ~$9 million in monthly net cannabis revenues or somewhere around $18 million to $20 million for the missing revenues from March and April.</p>\n<p>The big unknown are the full quarter revenues for Tilray, but the numbers would support the new company reporting relatively flat quarterly revenues when adding in the missing Tilray cannabis and wellness revenues.</p>\n<p>While the company talks about $35 million in synergies, the adjusted EBITDA for FQ4 was just $12.3 million. The amount was up from the prior quarter of $10.2 million, but the numbers don't include a full quarter of the Tilray EBITDA losses which hit $6.3 million in the February quarter.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/301bd9351f458a2c2868e9816d0c90f0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"195\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Tilray FQ4'21 presentation</span></p>\n<p>The inability to fully compare the quarterly results makes this quarterly report incomplete. The new Tilray is targeting $80 million in cost synergies which in theory would build upon the above EBITDA profits of the prior 12-month period.</p>\n<p><b>Good Story, Not Great Value</b></p>\n<p>While the company tells a good story, Tilray doesn't have much in the way of growth. The company still has the massive opportunity in Europe where the market size is forecast at $3.9 billion in 2025, but the company doesn't have the growth to support any expected major growth driver as the market is highly competitive.</p>\n<p>Tilray lists a market share leader position in Canada based on TTM sales, but a lot of deals in the sector will make this category more competitive going forward.<b>HEXO</b>(HEXO) recently&nbsp;announced a deal&nbsp;for Redecan to make the company the claimed leader in the Canadian recreational cannabis market share. Redecan alone generated&nbsp;Q1 revenues&nbsp;of C$24.7 million.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3934fcca920ff31b8421b8a8322afaf0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Tilray FQ4'21 presentation</span></p>\n<p>Tilray now has a market cap of $7 billion following the closure of theAphriadeal. The issue with the stock valuation is the $66 million in quarterly distribution revenue has limited value. The total cannabis/beverages/wellness revenue is reduced to only $100 million to $110 million per quarter.</p>\n<p>The company only has $400+ million of revenues in these valuable categories. The stock trades at ~17x these valuable cannabis related revenues, yet Tilray has reported no organic growth in several quarters.</p>\n<p><b>Takeaway</b></p>\n<p>The key investor takeaway is that Tilray still hasn't achieved any growth in over a year. The company has a forecast for large revenue by FY24, but most of the gains will come from acquisitions in the U.S. A better investment is to target the multi-state operators in the U.S. targeted by Tilray, not the stock in the Canadian cannabis company looking to make major deals likely at premium valuations.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tilray: Same Tired Story</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTilray: Same Tired Story\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-29 21:21 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442342-tilray-same-tired-story><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nTilray reported misleading revenue growth in FQ4 due to not comparing pro-forma revenue from the merger for the quarter.\nThe Canadian cannabis company is still struggling to grow due to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442342-tilray-same-tired-story\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TLRY":"Tilray Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442342-tilray-same-tired-story","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147830889","content_text":"Summary\n\nTilray reported misleading revenue growth in FQ4 due to not comparing pro-forma revenue from the merger for the quarter.\nThe Canadian cannabis company is still struggling to grow due to lockdowns in Canada and Germany.\nThe stock trades at substantial premium P/S multiple while risks exist on a U.S. acquisition plan.\n\ndvulikaia/iStock via Getty Images\nBefore the market open,Tilray(TLRY) reported FQ4 results to provide the first quarterly results of the combined Aphria and Tilray operations. Unfortunately, the Canadian cannabis company failed to provide pro-forma numbers for the combination. My investment thesis remains Bearish on the stock after the 20% rally in early trading.\nConfusing Quarter\nThe new Tilray reported May quarterly numbers that only included four weeks of results from the old Tilray. Revenues were reported as reaching $142.2 million for 25% growth from last FQ4, but the numbers are absolutely worthless without the pro-forma numbers. Last FQ4, the new Tilray reported revenue of $159.8 million without even including revenues from SweetWater which now accounts for over $15 million of net revenues.\nThe combined companies reported prior-quarter revenue of $167.3 million. Those revenues were down from $180.2 million in FQ2 so FQ4 revenues of $142.2 million aren't impressive on first look without parsing out the additional 9 weeks of revenues from Tilray. Unless Tilray had over $30 million in revenue from the unreported period, the combined company wouldn't have generated organic growth in the quarter.\nSource: Tilray FQ4'21 presentation\nTilray continues to face lockdown issues in both Canada and Europe. Cannabis and wellness net revenues both peaked in the November quarter as lockdowns started restricting sales in their key cannabis markets.\nWhat the market does know is that beverage alcohol net revenues reached $15.9 million in the quarter, up from $11.9 million in the prior quarter. The distribution revenue from CC Pharma in Germany dipped again to $66.8 million from $70.3 million in the prior quarter.\nThose revenues were both from the Aphria side where the new Tilray reported full revenue amounts for the period. The Wellness revenue came from the old Tilray and was $5.8 million in the May quarter while revenues were $16.6 million in the pro-forma February quarter results above. These revenues appeared to slightly grow from the prior quarter, but the May quarter numbers aren't fully known.\nThe biggest question is the combined cannabis revenues where the business overlapped with both prior companies. The new Tilray reported May quarterly net cannabis revenue of $53.7 million. The combined company reported February net cannabis revenues of $68.5 million.\nThe standalone Aphria reported February net cannabis revenue of $41.2 million (C$51. million) leaving just $27.3 million net revenues from Tilray. The amount would suggest Tilray only contributed ~$9 million in monthly net cannabis revenues or somewhere around $18 million to $20 million for the missing revenues from March and April.\nThe big unknown are the full quarter revenues for Tilray, but the numbers would support the new company reporting relatively flat quarterly revenues when adding in the missing Tilray cannabis and wellness revenues.\nWhile the company talks about $35 million in synergies, the adjusted EBITDA for FQ4 was just $12.3 million. The amount was up from the prior quarter of $10.2 million, but the numbers don't include a full quarter of the Tilray EBITDA losses which hit $6.3 million in the February quarter.\nSource: Tilray FQ4'21 presentation\nThe inability to fully compare the quarterly results makes this quarterly report incomplete. The new Tilray is targeting $80 million in cost synergies which in theory would build upon the above EBITDA profits of the prior 12-month period.\nGood Story, Not Great Value\nWhile the company tells a good story, Tilray doesn't have much in the way of growth. The company still has the massive opportunity in Europe where the market size is forecast at $3.9 billion in 2025, but the company doesn't have the growth to support any expected major growth driver as the market is highly competitive.\nTilray lists a market share leader position in Canada based on TTM sales, but a lot of deals in the sector will make this category more competitive going forward.HEXO(HEXO) recently announced a deal for Redecan to make the company the claimed leader in the Canadian recreational cannabis market share. Redecan alone generated Q1 revenues of C$24.7 million.\nSource: Tilray FQ4'21 presentation\nTilray now has a market cap of $7 billion following the closure of theAphriadeal. The issue with the stock valuation is the $66 million in quarterly distribution revenue has limited value. The total cannabis/beverages/wellness revenue is reduced to only $100 million to $110 million per quarter.\nThe company only has $400+ million of revenues in these valuable categories. The stock trades at ~17x these valuable cannabis related revenues, yet Tilray has reported no organic growth in several quarters.\nTakeaway\nThe key investor takeaway is that Tilray still hasn't achieved any growth in over a year. The company has a forecast for large revenue by FY24, but most of the gains will come from acquisitions in the U.S. A better investment is to target the multi-state operators in the U.S. targeted by Tilray, not the stock in the Canadian cannabis company looking to make major deals likely at premium valuations.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TLRY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1742,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808169621,"gmtCreate":1627565570363,"gmtModify":1631884285970,"author":{"id":"3563864010203724","authorId":"3563864010203724","name":"LiJi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16cb71d421bb5155595bf0414f2d5325","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563864010203724","authorIdStr":"3563864010203724"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUBO\">$FUBO 20210730 30.0 PUT(FUBO)$</a>let’s do it","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FUBO\">$FUBO 20210730 30.0 PUT(FUBO)$</a>let’s do it","text":"$FUBO 20210730 30.0 PUT(FUBO)$let’s do it","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f75fa20ec9d52d009c9b87b6ac325cf2","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808169621","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1833,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176878547,"gmtCreate":1626877814489,"gmtModify":1631890986378,"author":{"id":"3563864010203724","authorId":"3563864010203724","name":"LiJi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16cb71d421bb5155595bf0414f2d5325","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563864010203724","authorIdStr":"3563864010203724"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO 20210917 35.0 PUT(NIO)$</a>huat ah!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO 20210917 35.0 PUT(NIO)$</a>huat ah!","text":"$NIO 20210917 35.0 PUT(NIO)$huat ah!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bce5edcd43befc0324390bb305138e23","width":"828","height":"1590"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176878547","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1383,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187206456,"gmtCreate":1623754243975,"gmtModify":1631890986390,"author":{"id":"3563864010203724","authorId":"3563864010203724","name":"LiJi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16cb71d421bb5155595bf0414f2d5325","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563864010203724","authorIdStr":"3563864010203724"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"when?","listText":"when?","text":"when?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187206456","repostId":"1142697857","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142697857","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623752468,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1142697857?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 18:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed Poised to Crawl Onto ‘Knife Edge’ to Rein In Record Largesse","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142697857","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Fed wants to normalize relations with Congress, markets\nPolicy makers may begin months-long talks on","content":"<ul>\n <li>Fed wants to normalize relations with Congress, markets</li>\n <li>Policy makers may begin months-long talks on taper Tuesday</li>\n</ul>\n<p>The Federal Reserve is inching toward the start of a long road to normalizing its relationship with the rest of Washington and Wall Street.</p>\n<p>After spending the past 15 months providing unprecedented help to the federal government and investors via trillions of dollars of bond purchases, it could start preliminary discussions about scaling back that support at a pivotal two-day policy meeting that kicks off on Tuesday.</p>\n<p>Even so, actual steps in that direction by Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues are likely still months off.</p>\n<p>Weaning Wall Street and Washington off the Fed’s extraordinary largesse won’t be easy. Since Covid-19 struck the U.S. in March 2020, the central bank has brought more than $2.5 trillion of U.S. Treasury debt, effectively covering more than half of the federal government’s red ink over that time.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f845f5d5fa4baccad7e30207df549d71\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"348\">That buying -- together with about $870 billion in purchases of mortgage-backed securities -- has flooded the financial markets with liquidity, contributing to a doubling of the stock market from its pandemic low.</p>\n<p>“It will be like crawling along a knife-edge ridge,” former Bank of England policy maker Charles Goodhart said of the task facing the Fed. “If you do too little you’ll find inflation will just go on accelerating. If you do too much you get into a financial crisis and a recession.”</p>\n<p>Fed officials have said they want to see “substantial further progress” toward their goals of maximum employment and average 2% inflation before reducing current asset purchases of $120 billion per month. None are suggesting that they’re close to achieving that, though some have pressed for discussions to begin on a plan for tapering that buying.</p>\n<p>As Powell has pointed out more than once, payrolls are still substantially below where they were pre-pandemic -- some 7.6 million jobs short, according to the May employment report. And while inflation recently has proven surprisingly rapid -- consumer prices climbed 5% in May from a year earlier -- Powell and other Fed officials have argued that the rise is mostly transitory, the result of temporary bottlenecks as the economy reopens and low readings a year ago when it shut down.</p>\n<p><b>Price Pressures Heat Up</b></p>\n<p>U.S. core and headline inflation both increased more than forecast in May</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/320b6b6419ac9bcbe999007f7786196f\" tg-width=\"643\" tg-height=\"330\">“Why would the Fed try to fix bottleneck-driven inflation by signaling earlier rate hikes and hitting demand?” Julia Coronado, president of MacroPolicy Perspectives, asked in a June 14 tweet.</p>\n<p>Instead, after years of falling short of their inflation goal, policy makers will “err on the side of patience” in scaling back stimulus, said former Fed official David Wilcox, who is now at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.</p>\n<p>Powell’s past and potential future also argue for patience. As a Fed governor in 2013, he was among those pushing then-Chairman Ben Bernanke to roll back quantitative easing, only to see the financial markets throw a “taper tantrum” at the mere suggestion such a policy shift was coming.</p>\n<p>With his own term as Fed chair up next February, Powell has an extra incentive to avoid a repeat of such turbulence.</p>\n<p>“While the Fed is an independent institution, its leadership, up for reappointment next year, could not totally ignore the dim view the administration and Democratic Congress would take toward a shift to a more pre-emptive policy stance,” Deutsche Bank chief economist David Folkerts-Landau and colleagues wrote in a June 7 report.</p>\n<p>Some three-quarters of economists surveyed by Bloomberg last week said they expect the Fed to announce between August and year-end that it will begin paring its purchases, with one-third forecasting it won’t fire the starting gun until December.</p>\n<p>It’s not just the timing of the taper that’s up for discussion. So too are its composition and pace.</p>\n<p>The Fed has faced criticism from within and outside the organization for continuing to buy $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities per month while house prices are surging. Vice Chair Randal Quarles said last month that the Fed would “certainly” look at that issue in the context of its taper discussions.</p>\n<p><b>Steady Pace</b></p>\n<p>The last time the Fed wound up a quantitative easing program, in 2014, it shrank its asset purchases at a steady pace.</p>\n<p>“Investors may be lulled into a false sense of security by that experience,” former Fed official William English told a June 8 Deutsche Bank webinar. Given all the uncertainty surrounding the post pandemic economy, “it’s not necessarily going to be the case that the Fed is going to taper in steady steps.”</p>\n<p>Much may depend on the financial markets. American Enterprise Institute resident fellow Desmond Lachman said the ultra-easy monetary policy being pursued by the Fed and other major central banks has led to an “everything asset price bubble,” with stock, credit and housing markets all frothy.</p>\n<p>“The chance of the bubble bursting is all the greater if the Fed is behind the curve,” he said.</p>\n<p>English, who is now at the Yale School of Management, said it’s going to be politically hard for the Fed to wind up its asset purchases and increase interest rates because that will boost the government’s borrowing costs.</p>\n<p>“The Fed is going to come under a lot of criticism for raising rates and making budget choices for the Congress considerably tougher,” he said, adding, “At some level, the Fed needs to both normalize policy but also normalize its relationship with the government.”</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed Poised to Crawl Onto ‘Knife Edge’ to Rein In Record Largesse</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Poised to Crawl Onto ‘Knife Edge’ to Rein In Record Largesse\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-15 18:21 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-15/fed-poised-to-crawl-onto-knife-edge-to-rein-in-record-largesse><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Fed wants to normalize relations with Congress, markets\nPolicy makers may begin months-long talks on taper Tuesday\n\nThe Federal Reserve is inching toward the start of a long road to normalizing its ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-15/fed-poised-to-crawl-onto-knife-edge-to-rein-in-record-largesse\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-15/fed-poised-to-crawl-onto-knife-edge-to-rein-in-record-largesse","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142697857","content_text":"Fed wants to normalize relations with Congress, markets\nPolicy makers may begin months-long talks on taper Tuesday\n\nThe Federal Reserve is inching toward the start of a long road to normalizing its relationship with the rest of Washington and Wall Street.\nAfter spending the past 15 months providing unprecedented help to the federal government and investors via trillions of dollars of bond purchases, it could start preliminary discussions about scaling back that support at a pivotal two-day policy meeting that kicks off on Tuesday.\nEven so, actual steps in that direction by Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues are likely still months off.\nWeaning Wall Street and Washington off the Fed’s extraordinary largesse won’t be easy. Since Covid-19 struck the U.S. in March 2020, the central bank has brought more than $2.5 trillion of U.S. Treasury debt, effectively covering more than half of the federal government’s red ink over that time.\nThat buying -- together with about $870 billion in purchases of mortgage-backed securities -- has flooded the financial markets with liquidity, contributing to a doubling of the stock market from its pandemic low.\n“It will be like crawling along a knife-edge ridge,” former Bank of England policy maker Charles Goodhart said of the task facing the Fed. “If you do too little you’ll find inflation will just go on accelerating. If you do too much you get into a financial crisis and a recession.”\nFed officials have said they want to see “substantial further progress” toward their goals of maximum employment and average 2% inflation before reducing current asset purchases of $120 billion per month. None are suggesting that they’re close to achieving that, though some have pressed for discussions to begin on a plan for tapering that buying.\nAs Powell has pointed out more than once, payrolls are still substantially below where they were pre-pandemic -- some 7.6 million jobs short, according to the May employment report. And while inflation recently has proven surprisingly rapid -- consumer prices climbed 5% in May from a year earlier -- Powell and other Fed officials have argued that the rise is mostly transitory, the result of temporary bottlenecks as the economy reopens and low readings a year ago when it shut down.\nPrice Pressures Heat Up\nU.S. core and headline inflation both increased more than forecast in May\n“Why would the Fed try to fix bottleneck-driven inflation by signaling earlier rate hikes and hitting demand?” Julia Coronado, president of MacroPolicy Perspectives, asked in a June 14 tweet.\nInstead, after years of falling short of their inflation goal, policy makers will “err on the side of patience” in scaling back stimulus, said former Fed official David Wilcox, who is now at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.\nPowell’s past and potential future also argue for patience. As a Fed governor in 2013, he was among those pushing then-Chairman Ben Bernanke to roll back quantitative easing, only to see the financial markets throw a “taper tantrum” at the mere suggestion such a policy shift was coming.\nWith his own term as Fed chair up next February, Powell has an extra incentive to avoid a repeat of such turbulence.\n“While the Fed is an independent institution, its leadership, up for reappointment next year, could not totally ignore the dim view the administration and Democratic Congress would take toward a shift to a more pre-emptive policy stance,” Deutsche Bank chief economist David Folkerts-Landau and colleagues wrote in a June 7 report.\nSome three-quarters of economists surveyed by Bloomberg last week said they expect the Fed to announce between August and year-end that it will begin paring its purchases, with one-third forecasting it won’t fire the starting gun until December.\nIt’s not just the timing of the taper that’s up for discussion. So too are its composition and pace.\nThe Fed has faced criticism from within and outside the organization for continuing to buy $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities per month while house prices are surging. Vice Chair Randal Quarles said last month that the Fed would “certainly” look at that issue in the context of its taper discussions.\nSteady Pace\nThe last time the Fed wound up a quantitative easing program, in 2014, it shrank its asset purchases at a steady pace.\n“Investors may be lulled into a false sense of security by that experience,” former Fed official William English told a June 8 Deutsche Bank webinar. Given all the uncertainty surrounding the post pandemic economy, “it’s not necessarily going to be the case that the Fed is going to taper in steady steps.”\nMuch may depend on the financial markets. American Enterprise Institute resident fellow Desmond Lachman said the ultra-easy monetary policy being pursued by the Fed and other major central banks has led to an “everything asset price bubble,” with stock, credit and housing markets all frothy.\n“The chance of the bubble bursting is all the greater if the Fed is behind the curve,” he said.\nEnglish, who is now at the Yale School of Management, said it’s going to be politically hard for the Fed to wind up its asset purchases and increase interest rates because that will boost the government’s borrowing costs.\n“The Fed is going to come under a lot of criticism for raising rates and making budget choices for the Congress considerably tougher,” he said, adding, “At some level, the Fed needs to both normalize policy but also normalize its relationship with the government.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3535,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184958907,"gmtCreate":1623681790409,"gmtModify":1631890986398,"author":{"id":"3563864010203724","authorId":"3563864010203724","name":"LiJi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16cb71d421bb5155595bf0414f2d5325","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563864010203724","authorIdStr":"3563864010203724"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>happy!&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>happy!&nbsp;","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$happy!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ff9964e768d70cf1bb9d99a3974caa3","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/184958907","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2179,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":118250603,"gmtCreate":1622734738002,"gmtModify":1631890986411,"author":{"id":"3563864010203724","authorId":"3563864010203724","name":"LiJi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16cb71d421bb5155595bf0414f2d5325","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563864010203724","authorIdStr":"3563864010203724"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLOV\">$Clover Health Corp(CLOV)$</a>i think this is worth a shot.&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLOV\">$Clover Health Corp(CLOV)$</a>i think this is worth a shot.&nbsp;","text":"$Clover Health Corp(CLOV)$i think this is worth a shot.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53f56e9720e7024b6ec6742717dd85a1","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118250603","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2758,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":113093851,"gmtCreate":1622581456173,"gmtModify":1631890986419,"author":{"id":"3563864010203724","authorId":"3563864010203724","name":"LiJi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16cb71d421bb5155595bf0414f2d5325","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563864010203724","authorIdStr":"3563864010203724"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>finally we see some light&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>finally we see some light&nbsp;","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$finally we see some light","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59ab03f10ac14e1f2774ff18920c605b","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113093851","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":962,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}