社区
首页
集团介绍
社区
资讯
行情
学堂
TigerAI
登录
注册
GIANTOREO
IP属地：未知
+关注
帖子 · 9
帖子 · 9
关注 · 0
关注 · 0
粉丝 · 0
粉丝 · 0
GIANTOREO
GIANTOREO
·
2021-07-01
Expensive leh
3 Expensive Tech Stocks to Buy in the Next Market Crash<blockquote>下一次市场崩盘时值得买入的3只昂贵科技股</blockquote>
Get ready to buy Snowflake and two other hot tech stocks if this frothy market collapses.
3 Expensive Tech Stocks to Buy in the Next Market Crash<blockquote>下一次市场崩盘时值得买入的3只昂贵科技股</blockquote>
看
923
回复
评论
点赞
4
编组 21备份 2
分享
举报
GIANTOREO
GIANTOREO
·
2021-07-01
Buy now
看
2,026
回复
评论
点赞
点赞
编组 21备份 2
分享
举报
GIANTOREO
GIANTOREO
·
2021-07-01
$Huya Inc.(HUYA)$
Does anyone know why the stock chart is grey before market opening ?
看
1,570
回复
评论
点赞
2
编组 21备份 2
分享
举报
GIANTOREO
GIANTOREO
·
2021-07-01
Buy now
看
941
回复
评论
点赞
点赞
编组 21备份 2
分享
举报
GIANTOREO
GIANTOREO
·
2021-07-01
Agree
Plug Power Stock Gets a New Buy Rating Because Hydrogen Tech Is Key<blockquote>普拉格能源股票获得新的买入评级，因为氢技术是关键</blockquote>
The hydrogen economy can help wean the world off carbon-based fossil fuels such as oil and coal. Plu
Plug Power Stock Gets a New Buy Rating Because Hydrogen Tech Is Key<blockquote>普拉格能源股票获得新的买入评级，因为氢技术是关键</blockquote>
看
1,333
回复
评论
点赞
点赞
编组 21备份 2
分享
举报
GIANTOREO
GIANTOREO
·
2021-06-26
Like
非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
看
1,386
回复
2
点赞
4
编组 21备份 2
分享
举报
GIANTOREO
GIANTOREO
·
2021-06-24
True
The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转——这些股票将受到影响</blockquote>
5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over. One of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pan
The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转——这些股票将受到影响</blockquote>
看
2,644
回复
评论
点赞
4
编组 21备份 2
分享
举报
GIANTOREO
GIANTOREO
·
2021-06-24
Like pls
The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转——这些股票将受到影响</blockquote>
5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over. One of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pan
The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转——这些股票将受到影响</blockquote>
看
673
回复
评论
点赞
2
编组 21备份 2
分享
举报
GIANTOREO
GIANTOREO
·
2021-06-24
Share
看
1,872
回复
评论
点赞
点赞
编组 21备份 2
分享
举报
加载更多
热议股票
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isCurrentUser":false,"userPageInfo":{"id":"3564160805001456","uuid":"3564160805001456","gmtCreate":1601066781938,"gmtModify":1624332200969,"name":"GIANTOREO","pinyin":"giantoreo","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eec389a1a84327ab96266f51dbd8a58a","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":0,"headSize":5,"tweetSize":9,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":2,"name":"无畏虎","nameTw":"無畏虎","represent":"初生牛犊","factor":"发布3条非转发主帖,1条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":2,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-1","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"出道虎友","description":"加入老虎社区500天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e4d0ca1da0456dc7894c946d44bf9ab","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f2f65e8ce4cfaae8db2bea9b127f58b","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5948a31b6edf154422335b265235809","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.02.08","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":2,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"未知","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"page":1,"watchlist":null,"tweetList":[{"id":158295677,"gmtCreate":1625150140699,"gmtModify":1633944222564,"author":{"id":"3564160805001456","authorId":"3564160805001456","name":"GIANTOREO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eec389a1a84327ab96266f51dbd8a58a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564160805001456","idStr":"3564160805001456"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Expensive leh","listText":"Expensive leh","text":"Expensive leh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/158295677","repostId":"1199212665","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199212665","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625146084,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199212665?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-01 21:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Expensive Tech Stocks to Buy in the Next Market Crash<blockquote>下一次市场崩盘时值得买入的3只昂贵科技股</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199212665","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Get ready to buy Snowflake and two other hot tech stocks if this frothy market collapses.","content":"<p>Many high-growth tech stocks have seen price pullbacks over the past few months, due to concerns about higher bond yields, inflation, and decelerating growth for companies that benefited from the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>由于担心债券收益率上升、通货膨胀以及受益于疫情的公司增长放缓，许多高增长科技股在过去几个月出现了价格回调。</blockquote></p><p> That sell-off created some buying opportunities -- but some of the sector's pricier names merely pulled back slightly, held onto their gains, or even rallied. That relative strength is admirable, but it's a bit frustrating for investors who don't want to pay the wrong price for the right company.</p><p><blockquote>这次抛售创造了一些买入机会，但该行业一些价格较高的股票只是小幅回调，保持涨幅，甚至上涨。这种相对实力令人钦佩，但对于那些不想为合适的公司支付错误价格的投资者来说，这有点令人沮丧。</blockquote></p><p> That's why I'm making a shopping list of expensive tech stocks which I'd eagerly buy during the next market crash. Let's take a look at three of those companies:<b>Snowflake</b>(NYSE:SNOW),<b>Twilio</b>(NYSE:TWLO), and <b>CrowdStrike</b>(NASDAQ:CRWD).</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么我列出了一份昂贵科技股的购物清单，这些股票是我在下一次市场崩盘时急切购买的。让我们来看看其中三家公司：<b>雪花</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：SNOW），<b>Twilio</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：TWLO），以及<b>CrowdStrike</b>（纳斯达克：CRWD）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fde232ce39d9cd52a01fd6ec018cae53\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Snowflake</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.雪花</b></blockquote></p><p> Snowflake was one of the hottest tech IPOs of 2020, thanks to its jaw-dropping growth rates and big investments from <b>Berkshire Hathaway</b> and <b>salesforce.com</b>.</p><p><blockquote>Snowflake是2020年最热门的科技IPO之一，这要归功于其令人瞠目结舌的增长率和来自<b>伯克希尔哈撒韦</b>和<b>salesforce.com</b>.</blockquote></p><p> Snowflake'scloud-baseddata warehouse pulls all of a company's data onto a single platform, where it can then be fed into third-party data visualization apps. Its service breaks down the silos between different departments and computing platforms, which makes it easier for large companies to make data-driven decisions.</p><p><blockquote>Snowflake基于云的数据仓库将公司的所有数据拉到一个平台上，然后可以将其输入第三方数据可视化应用程序。它的服务打破了不同部门和计算平台之间的孤岛，使大公司更容易做出数据驱动的决策。</blockquote></p><p> Snowflake's number of customers jumped 73% to 4,139 in fiscal 2021 (which ended this January), including 186 of the Fortune 500 companies. Its revenue surged 124% to $592 million, as its net retention rate -- which gauges its year-over-year revenue growth per existing customer -- hit 165%.</p><p><blockquote>Snowflake的客户数量在2021财年（截至今年1月）跃升73%至4,139家，其中包括186家财富500强公司。其收入飙升124%，达到5.92亿美元，净保留率（衡量每个现有客户的收入同比增长）达到165%。</blockquote></p><p> That growth continued in the first quarter of 2022. Its revenue rose 110% year over year to $228.9 million, its number of customers increased 67% to 4,532, and it achieved a net retention rate of 168%.</p><p><blockquote>这种增长在2022年第一季度仍在继续。其收入同比增长110%至2.289亿美元，客户数量增长67%至4,532人，净保留率达到168%。</blockquote></p><p> But Snowflake isn't profitable yet. ItsGAAPnet loss widened from $348.5 million in fiscal 2020 to $539.1 million in fiscal 2021, and<i>more than doubled</i>from $93.6 million to $203.2 million in the first quarter of 2022. It's also unprofitable on a non-GAAP basis, which excludes its stock-based compensation expenses.</p><p><blockquote>但Snowflake尚未盈利。其GAAP净亏损从2020财年的3.485亿美元扩大至2021财年的5.391亿美元，并且<i>翻了一倍多</i>2022年第一季度从9360万美元增至2.032亿美元。在非公认会计准则的基础上，它也是无利可图的，这不包括其股票薪酬费用。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect Snowflake's revenue to rise 88% this year, with a narrower loss. However, its stock still trades at 65 times this year's sales -- which indicates there's still far too much growth baked into the stock. But if Snowflake gets cut in half in a crash, I'd considerstarting a big position.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计Snowflake今年的收入将增长88%，亏损将收窄。然而，其股价仍是今年销售额的65倍，这表明该股仍有太多增长。但如果雪花在崩盘中被切成两半，我会考虑建立一个大头寸。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Twilio</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.Twilio</b></blockquote></p><p> Twilio's cloud platform processes text messages, calls, and videos within apps. For example, it helps <b>Lyft</b>'s passengers contact their drivers, and <b>Airbnb</b>'s guests reach their hosts.</p><p><blockquote>Twilio的云平台在应用程序中处理短信、评级和视频。例如，它有助于<b>Lyft</b>的乘客联系他们的司机，并且<b>爱彼迎</b>的客人到达他们的主人。</blockquote></p><p> In the past, developers built those tools from scratch, which was generally time-consuming, buggy, and difficult to scale. However, developers can now outsource those features to Twilio's cloud service by simply adding a few lines of code to their apps.</p><p><blockquote>过去，开发人员从头开始构建这些工具，这通常很耗时、有缺陷且难以扩展。然而，开发人员现在只需在他们的应用程序中添加几行代码，就可以将这些功能外包给Twilio的云服务。</blockquote></p><p> Twilio's revenue rose 55% to $1.76 billion in 2020. Its net expansion rate, which is comparable to Snowflake's net retention rate, reached 137%. In the first quarter of 2021, its revenue jumped 62% year over year to $590 million as it integrated its recent purchase of the customer data firm Segment.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，Twilio的收入增长了55%，达到17.6亿美元。其净扩张率与Snowflake的净留存率相当，达到了137%。2021年第一季度，由于整合了最近收购的客户数据公司部门，其收入同比增长62%至5.9亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Twilio remains unprofitable on a GAAP basis, but its non-GAAP net income rose 62% to $35.9 million in 2020. In the first quarter of 2021, its non-GAAP net income rose another 15% to $9.6 million.</p><p><blockquote>按GAAP计算，Twilio仍未盈利，但其非GAAP净利润在2020年增长了62%，达到3590万美元。2021年第一季度，其非GAAP净利润再增长15%至960万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect its revenue to rise 44% this year, but for its non-GAAP earnings to dip into the red again amid higher investments and rising A2P (application-to-person) fees, which are now charged by carriers whenever an app accesses an SMS network.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计其今年收入将增长44%，但由于投资增加和A2P（应用到个人）费用上涨，其非GAAP收益将再次出现亏损，现在每当应用程序访问短信网络时，运营商都会收取这些费用。</blockquote></p><p> That near-term outlook doesn't look great for a stock that trades at nearly 30 times this year's sales. However, I still think Twilio has great growth potential, and I'd definitely buy its stock at a lower price.</p><p><blockquote>对于一只交易价格是今年销售额近30倍的股票来说，近期前景看起来并不乐观。不过，我仍然认为Twilio具有巨大的增长潜力，我肯定会以较低的价格购买其股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. CrowdStrike</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.CrowdStrike</b></blockquote></p><p> CrowdStrike is a cybersecurity company that differs from its industry peers in one major way. Most cybersecurity companies install on-site appliances to support their services, which can be expensive to maintain and difficult to scale as an organization expands. CrowdStrike eliminates those appliances by offering its end-to-end security platform as a cloud-based service.</p><p><blockquote>CrowdStrike是一家网络安全公司，在一个主要方面不同于行业同行。大多数网络安全公司安装现场设备来支持其服务，这些设备的维护成本可能很高，并且随着组织的扩展难以扩展。CrowdStrike通过将其端到端安全平台作为基于云的服务来消除这些设备。</blockquote></p><p> CrowdStrike's growth clearly reflects its disruptive potential. Its revenue rose 82% to $874.4 million in fiscal 2021 (which ended this January), its number of subscription customers increased 82% to 9,896, and its net retention rate stayed above 120%.</p><p><blockquote>CrowdStrike的增长清楚地反映了其颠覆性的潜力。其2021财年（截至今年1月）收入增长82%至8.744亿美元，订阅客户数量增长82%至9,896人，净留存率保持在120%以上。</blockquote></p><p> In the first quarter of fiscal 2022, its revenue rose 70% year over year to $302.8 million, its subscriber base expanded 82% year over year to 11,420, and it kept its retention rate above 120%.</p><p><blockquote>2022财年第一季度，其收入同比增长70%至3.028亿美元，用户群同比增长82%至11,420人，留存率保持在120%以上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> CrowdStrike also turned profitable on a non-GAAP basis in 2021, with a net profit of $62.6 million. Its non-GAAP net income rose more than fivefold year over year to $23.3 million in the first quarter of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>CrowdStrike也在2021年实现了非GAAP盈利，净利润为6260万美元。2022年第一季度，其非GAAP净利润同比增长五倍多，达到2330万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Those numbers are impressive, but CrowdStrike still trades at about 350 times forward earnings and more than 40 times this year's sales. Therefore, this is another stock I won't buy unless the market crashes.</p><p><blockquote>这些数字令人印象深刻，但CrowdStrike的市盈率仍约为350倍，是今年销售额的40多倍。因此，这是另一只我不会买的股票，除非市场崩盘。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Expensive Tech Stocks to Buy in the Next Market Crash<blockquote>下一次市场崩盘时值得买入的3只昂贵科技股</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Expensive Tech Stocks to Buy in the Next Market Crash<blockquote>下一次市场崩盘时值得买入的3只昂贵科技股</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-01 21:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Many high-growth tech stocks have seen price pullbacks over the past few months, due to concerns about higher bond yields, inflation, and decelerating growth for companies that benefited from the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>由于担心债券收益率上升、通货膨胀以及受益于疫情的公司增长放缓，许多高增长科技股在过去几个月出现了价格回调。</blockquote></p><p> That sell-off created some buying opportunities -- but some of the sector's pricier names merely pulled back slightly, held onto their gains, or even rallied. That relative strength is admirable, but it's a bit frustrating for investors who don't want to pay the wrong price for the right company.</p><p><blockquote>这次抛售创造了一些买入机会，但该行业一些价格较高的股票只是小幅回调，保持涨幅，甚至上涨。这种相对实力令人钦佩，但对于那些不想为合适的公司支付错误价格的投资者来说，这有点令人沮丧。</blockquote></p><p> That's why I'm making a shopping list of expensive tech stocks which I'd eagerly buy during the next market crash. Let's take a look at three of those companies:<b>Snowflake</b>(NYSE:SNOW),<b>Twilio</b>(NYSE:TWLO), and <b>CrowdStrike</b>(NASDAQ:CRWD).</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么我列出了一份昂贵科技股的购物清单，这些股票是我在下一次市场崩盘时急切购买的。让我们来看看其中三家公司：<b>雪花</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：SNOW），<b>Twilio</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：TWLO），以及<b>CrowdStrike</b>（纳斯达克：CRWD）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fde232ce39d9cd52a01fd6ec018cae53\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Snowflake</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.雪花</b></blockquote></p><p> Snowflake was one of the hottest tech IPOs of 2020, thanks to its jaw-dropping growth rates and big investments from <b>Berkshire Hathaway</b> and <b>salesforce.com</b>.</p><p><blockquote>Snowflake是2020年最热门的科技IPO之一，这要归功于其令人瞠目结舌的增长率和来自<b>伯克希尔哈撒韦</b>和<b>salesforce.com</b>.</blockquote></p><p> Snowflake'scloud-baseddata warehouse pulls all of a company's data onto a single platform, where it can then be fed into third-party data visualization apps. Its service breaks down the silos between different departments and computing platforms, which makes it easier for large companies to make data-driven decisions.</p><p><blockquote>Snowflake基于云的数据仓库将公司的所有数据拉到一个平台上，然后可以将其输入第三方数据可视化应用程序。它的服务打破了不同部门和计算平台之间的孤岛，使大公司更容易做出数据驱动的决策。</blockquote></p><p> Snowflake's number of customers jumped 73% to 4,139 in fiscal 2021 (which ended this January), including 186 of the Fortune 500 companies. Its revenue surged 124% to $592 million, as its net retention rate -- which gauges its year-over-year revenue growth per existing customer -- hit 165%.</p><p><blockquote>Snowflake的客户数量在2021财年（截至今年1月）跃升73%至4,139家，其中包括186家财富500强公司。其收入飙升124%，达到5.92亿美元，净保留率（衡量每个现有客户的收入同比增长）达到165%。</blockquote></p><p> That growth continued in the first quarter of 2022. Its revenue rose 110% year over year to $228.9 million, its number of customers increased 67% to 4,532, and it achieved a net retention rate of 168%.</p><p><blockquote>这种增长在2022年第一季度仍在继续。其收入同比增长110%至2.289亿美元，客户数量增长67%至4,532人，净保留率达到168%。</blockquote></p><p> But Snowflake isn't profitable yet. ItsGAAPnet loss widened from $348.5 million in fiscal 2020 to $539.1 million in fiscal 2021, and<i>more than doubled</i>from $93.6 million to $203.2 million in the first quarter of 2022. It's also unprofitable on a non-GAAP basis, which excludes its stock-based compensation expenses.</p><p><blockquote>但Snowflake尚未盈利。其GAAP净亏损从2020财年的3.485亿美元扩大至2021财年的5.391亿美元，并且<i>翻了一倍多</i>2022年第一季度从9360万美元增至2.032亿美元。在非公认会计准则的基础上，它也是无利可图的，这不包括其股票薪酬费用。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect Snowflake's revenue to rise 88% this year, with a narrower loss. However, its stock still trades at 65 times this year's sales -- which indicates there's still far too much growth baked into the stock. But if Snowflake gets cut in half in a crash, I'd considerstarting a big position.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计Snowflake今年的收入将增长88%，亏损将收窄。然而，其股价仍是今年销售额的65倍，这表明该股仍有太多增长。但如果雪花在崩盘中被切成两半，我会考虑建立一个大头寸。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Twilio</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.Twilio</b></blockquote></p><p> Twilio's cloud platform processes text messages, calls, and videos within apps. For example, it helps <b>Lyft</b>'s passengers contact their drivers, and <b>Airbnb</b>'s guests reach their hosts.</p><p><blockquote>Twilio的云平台在应用程序中处理短信、评级和视频。例如，它有助于<b>Lyft</b>的乘客联系他们的司机，并且<b>爱彼迎</b>的客人到达他们的主人。</blockquote></p><p> In the past, developers built those tools from scratch, which was generally time-consuming, buggy, and difficult to scale. However, developers can now outsource those features to Twilio's cloud service by simply adding a few lines of code to their apps.</p><p><blockquote>过去，开发人员从头开始构建这些工具，这通常很耗时、有缺陷且难以扩展。然而，开发人员现在只需在他们的应用程序中添加几行代码，就可以将这些功能外包给Twilio的云服务。</blockquote></p><p> Twilio's revenue rose 55% to $1.76 billion in 2020. Its net expansion rate, which is comparable to Snowflake's net retention rate, reached 137%. In the first quarter of 2021, its revenue jumped 62% year over year to $590 million as it integrated its recent purchase of the customer data firm Segment.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，Twilio的收入增长了55%，达到17.6亿美元。其净扩张率与Snowflake的净留存率相当，达到了137%。2021年第一季度，由于整合了最近收购的客户数据公司部门，其收入同比增长62%至5.9亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Twilio remains unprofitable on a GAAP basis, but its non-GAAP net income rose 62% to $35.9 million in 2020. In the first quarter of 2021, its non-GAAP net income rose another 15% to $9.6 million.</p><p><blockquote>按GAAP计算，Twilio仍未盈利，但其非GAAP净利润在2020年增长了62%，达到3590万美元。2021年第一季度，其非GAAP净利润再增长15%至960万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect its revenue to rise 44% this year, but for its non-GAAP earnings to dip into the red again amid higher investments and rising A2P (application-to-person) fees, which are now charged by carriers whenever an app accesses an SMS network.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计其今年收入将增长44%，但由于投资增加和A2P（应用到个人）费用上涨，其非GAAP收益将再次出现亏损，现在每当应用程序访问短信网络时，运营商都会收取这些费用。</blockquote></p><p> That near-term outlook doesn't look great for a stock that trades at nearly 30 times this year's sales. However, I still think Twilio has great growth potential, and I'd definitely buy its stock at a lower price.</p><p><blockquote>对于一只交易价格是今年销售额近30倍的股票来说，近期前景看起来并不乐观。不过，我仍然认为Twilio具有巨大的增长潜力，我肯定会以较低的价格购买其股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. CrowdStrike</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.CrowdStrike</b></blockquote></p><p> CrowdStrike is a cybersecurity company that differs from its industry peers in one major way. Most cybersecurity companies install on-site appliances to support their services, which can be expensive to maintain and difficult to scale as an organization expands. CrowdStrike eliminates those appliances by offering its end-to-end security platform as a cloud-based service.</p><p><blockquote>CrowdStrike是一家网络安全公司，在一个主要方面不同于行业同行。大多数网络安全公司安装现场设备来支持其服务，这些设备的维护成本可能很高，并且随着组织的扩展难以扩展。CrowdStrike通过将其端到端安全平台作为基于云的服务来消除这些设备。</blockquote></p><p> CrowdStrike's growth clearly reflects its disruptive potential. Its revenue rose 82% to $874.4 million in fiscal 2021 (which ended this January), its number of subscription customers increased 82% to 9,896, and its net retention rate stayed above 120%.</p><p><blockquote>CrowdStrike的增长清楚地反映了其颠覆性的潜力。其2021财年（截至今年1月）收入增长82%至8.744亿美元，订阅客户数量增长82%至9,896人，净留存率保持在120%以上。</blockquote></p><p> In the first quarter of fiscal 2022, its revenue rose 70% year over year to $302.8 million, its subscriber base expanded 82% year over year to 11,420, and it kept its retention rate above 120%.</p><p><blockquote>2022财年第一季度，其收入同比增长70%至3.028亿美元，用户群同比增长82%至11,420人，留存率保持在120%以上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> CrowdStrike also turned profitable on a non-GAAP basis in 2021, with a net profit of $62.6 million. Its non-GAAP net income rose more than fivefold year over year to $23.3 million in the first quarter of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>CrowdStrike也在2021年实现了非GAAP盈利，净利润为6260万美元。2022年第一季度，其非GAAP净利润同比增长五倍多，达到2330万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Those numbers are impressive, but CrowdStrike still trades at about 350 times forward earnings and more than 40 times this year's sales. Therefore, this is another stock I won't buy unless the market crashes.</p><p><blockquote>这些数字令人印象深刻，但CrowdStrike的市盈率仍约为350倍，是今年销售额的40多倍。因此，这是另一只我不会买的股票，除非市场崩盘。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/01/expensive-tech-stocks-to-buy-in-next-market-crash/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TWLO":"Twilio Inc","CRWD":"CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.","SNOW":"Snowflake"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/01/expensive-tech-stocks-to-buy-in-next-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199212665","content_text":"Many high-growth tech stocks have seen price pullbacks over the past few months, due to concerns about higher bond yields, inflation, and decelerating growth for companies that benefited from the pandemic.\nThat sell-off created some buying opportunities -- but some of the sector's pricier names merely pulled back slightly, held onto their gains, or even rallied. That relative strength is admirable, but it's a bit frustrating for investors who don't want to pay the wrong price for the right company.\nThat's why I'm making a shopping list of expensive tech stocks which I'd eagerly buy during the next market crash. Let's take a look at three of those companies:Snowflake(NYSE:SNOW),Twilio(NYSE:TWLO), and CrowdStrike(NASDAQ:CRWD).\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\n1. Snowflake\nSnowflake was one of the hottest tech IPOs of 2020, thanks to its jaw-dropping growth rates and big investments from Berkshire Hathaway and salesforce.com.\nSnowflake'scloud-baseddata warehouse pulls all of a company's data onto a single platform, where it can then be fed into third-party data visualization apps. Its service breaks down the silos between different departments and computing platforms, which makes it easier for large companies to make data-driven decisions.\nSnowflake's number of customers jumped 73% to 4,139 in fiscal 2021 (which ended this January), including 186 of the Fortune 500 companies. Its revenue surged 124% to $592 million, as its net retention rate -- which gauges its year-over-year revenue growth per existing customer -- hit 165%.\nThat growth continued in the first quarter of 2022. Its revenue rose 110% year over year to $228.9 million, its number of customers increased 67% to 4,532, and it achieved a net retention rate of 168%.\nBut Snowflake isn't profitable yet. ItsGAAPnet loss widened from $348.5 million in fiscal 2020 to $539.1 million in fiscal 2021, andmore than doubledfrom $93.6 million to $203.2 million in the first quarter of 2022. It's also unprofitable on a non-GAAP basis, which excludes its stock-based compensation expenses.\nAnalysts expect Snowflake's revenue to rise 88% this year, with a narrower loss. However, its stock still trades at 65 times this year's sales -- which indicates there's still far too much growth baked into the stock. But if Snowflake gets cut in half in a crash, I'd considerstarting a big position.\n2. Twilio\nTwilio's cloud platform processes text messages, calls, and videos within apps. For example, it helps Lyft's passengers contact their drivers, and Airbnb's guests reach their hosts.\nIn the past, developers built those tools from scratch, which was generally time-consuming, buggy, and difficult to scale. However, developers can now outsource those features to Twilio's cloud service by simply adding a few lines of code to their apps.\nTwilio's revenue rose 55% to $1.76 billion in 2020. Its net expansion rate, which is comparable to Snowflake's net retention rate, reached 137%. In the first quarter of 2021, its revenue jumped 62% year over year to $590 million as it integrated its recent purchase of the customer data firm Segment.\nTwilio remains unprofitable on a GAAP basis, but its non-GAAP net income rose 62% to $35.9 million in 2020. In the first quarter of 2021, its non-GAAP net income rose another 15% to $9.6 million.\nAnalysts expect its revenue to rise 44% this year, but for its non-GAAP earnings to dip into the red again amid higher investments and rising A2P (application-to-person) fees, which are now charged by carriers whenever an app accesses an SMS network.\nThat near-term outlook doesn't look great for a stock that trades at nearly 30 times this year's sales. However, I still think Twilio has great growth potential, and I'd definitely buy its stock at a lower price.\n3. CrowdStrike\nCrowdStrike is a cybersecurity company that differs from its industry peers in one major way. Most cybersecurity companies install on-site appliances to support their services, which can be expensive to maintain and difficult to scale as an organization expands. CrowdStrike eliminates those appliances by offering its end-to-end security platform as a cloud-based service.\nCrowdStrike's growth clearly reflects its disruptive potential. Its revenue rose 82% to $874.4 million in fiscal 2021 (which ended this January), its number of subscription customers increased 82% to 9,896, and its net retention rate stayed above 120%.\nIn the first quarter of fiscal 2022, its revenue rose 70% year over year to $302.8 million, its subscriber base expanded 82% year over year to 11,420, and it kept its retention rate above 120%.\nCrowdStrike also turned profitable on a non-GAAP basis in 2021, with a net profit of $62.6 million. Its non-GAAP net income rose more than fivefold year over year to $23.3 million in the first quarter of 2022.\nThose numbers are impressive, but CrowdStrike still trades at about 350 times forward earnings and more than 40 times this year's sales. Therefore, this is another stock I won't buy unless the market crashes.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TWLO":0.9,"CRWD":0.9,"SNOW":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":923,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158298438,"gmtCreate":1625150045124,"gmtModify":1633944224295,"author":{"id":"3564160805001456","authorId":"3564160805001456","name":"GIANTOREO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eec389a1a84327ab96266f51dbd8a58a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564160805001456","idStr":"3564160805001456"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy now","listText":"Buy now","text":"Buy now","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e825c76277c5fa70b955612ec5a98b15","width":"1080","height":"3151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/158298438","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2026,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158146109,"gmtCreate":1625140371001,"gmtModify":1631884042097,"author":{"id":"3564160805001456","authorId":"3564160805001456","name":"GIANTOREO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eec389a1a84327ab96266f51dbd8a58a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564160805001456","idStr":"3564160805001456"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUYA\">$Huya Inc.(HUYA)$</a> Does anyone know why the stock chart is grey before market opening ?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HUYA\">$Huya Inc.(HUYA)$</a> Does anyone know why the stock chart is grey before market opening ?","text":"$Huya Inc.(HUYA)$ Does anyone know why the stock chart is grey before market opening ?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/158146109","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1570,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":151662873,"gmtCreate":1625087844692,"gmtModify":1633945053554,"author":{"id":"3564160805001456","authorId":"3564160805001456","name":"GIANTOREO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eec389a1a84327ab96266f51dbd8a58a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564160805001456","idStr":"3564160805001456"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy now","listText":"Buy now","text":"Buy now","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c9c59733e2c7cdbdfd272ead3a124bd","width":"1080","height":"3242"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/151662873","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":941,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":151601419,"gmtCreate":1625075862831,"gmtModify":1631888361304,"author":{"id":"3564160805001456","authorId":"3564160805001456","name":"GIANTOREO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eec389a1a84327ab96266f51dbd8a58a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564160805001456","idStr":"3564160805001456"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Agree","listText":"Agree","text":"Agree","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/151601419","repostId":"1123014745","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1123014745","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625063808,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1123014745?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-30 22:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Plug Power Stock Gets a New Buy Rating Because Hydrogen Tech Is Key<blockquote>普拉格能源股票获得新的买入评级，因为氢技术是关键</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123014745","media":"Barrons","summary":"The hydrogen economy can help wean the world off carbon-based fossil fuels such as oil and coal. Plu","content":"<p>The hydrogen economy can help wean the world off carbon-based fossil fuels such as oil and coal. Plug Power stock is one of the best ways to play the shift, according to RBC.</p><p><blockquote>氢经济可以帮助世界摆脱对石油和煤炭等碳基化石燃料的依赖。加拿大皇家银行表示，普拉格能源股票是实现这一转变的最佳方式之一。</blockquote></p><p> Wednesday, analyst Joseph Spak launched coverage of Plug Power (ticker: PLUG) with a Buy rating and $42 price target. Plug stock was up 0.4% at $34.21 in early trading on Wednesday. Futures on the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average were flat.</p><p><blockquote>周三，分析师Joseph Spak对普拉格能源（股票代码：PLUG）给予买入评级和42美元的目标价。Plug股价周三早盘上涨0.4%，至34.21美元。标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数期货持平。</blockquote></p><p> Plug Power makes fuel cells that can run on hydrogen gas. Hydrogen doesn’t generate any carbon dioxide, the main gas blamed for climate change, when burned or used in a fuel cell to generate electricity. Plug Power’s core market is fork lifts, but it aims to expand into other areas, such as heavy-duty trucking, where its fuel cells could be used. Electrolyzer manufacturing and hydrogen production are additional long-term focuses.</p><p><blockquote>普拉格能源制造可以使用氢气的燃料电池。当氢气燃烧或用于燃料电池发电时，不会产生任何二氧化碳，二氧化碳是导致气候变化的主要气体。普拉格能源的核心市场是叉车，但它的目标是扩展到其他领域，例如重型卡车运输，在这些领域可以使用其燃料电池。电解槽制造和氢气生产是其他长期重点。</blockquote></p><p> Electrolyzers can make hydrogen and oxygen gas by passing electricity through water. If the electricity comes from renewable power such as solar, then essentially no carbon dioxide is generated anywhere along the hydrogen value chain.</p><p><blockquote>电解槽可以通过电通过水来制造氢气和氧气。如果电力来自太阳能等可再生能源，那么氢价值链上的任何地方基本上都不会产生二氧化碳。</blockquote></p><p> “Hydrogen is increasingly viewed as a key pillar of de-carbonization strategies worldwide,” wrote Spak in his initiation report. “With a lot of investment and government support, we believe a multi-decade hydrogen transition can occur.”</p><p><blockquote>“氢越来越被视为全球脱碳战略的关键支柱，”斯帕克在他的启动报告中写道。“在大量投资和政府支持下，我们相信可以实现长达数十年的氢转型。”</blockquote></p><p> That is good news for Plug Power. But the stock reflects a lot of good news already. The company trades for about 18 times Spak’s estimated annual sales. “The market has looked to Plug as a proxy for hydrogen economy growth,” Spak said. “But the growth is significant, which helps justify the valuation.”</p><p><blockquote>这对普拉格能源来说是个好消息。但该股已经反映了很多好消息。该公司的交易价格约为Spak预计年销售额的18倍。“市场已将Plug视为氢经济增长的代表，”斯帕克说。“但增长显着，这有助于证明估值的合理性。”</blockquote></p><p> His $42 price target is based in part on a discounted cash flow model, which projects cash flows far into the future, as well as a 35 times multiple on the Ebitda of $537 million he projects for 2025. In 2021, Plug is projected to have negative Ebitda—earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization—and about $85 million in Ebitda in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>他42美元的目标价部分基于贴现现金流模型，该模型预测了未来很长一段时间的现金流，以及他预测的2025年5.37亿美元Ebitda的35倍。2021年，Plug预计Ebitda（息税折旧摊销前利润）为负，2022年Ebitda约为8500万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the high valuation, Plug remains a popular stock on Wall Street. With the new Buy rating, two-thirds, or 67%, of analyst covering the stock rate the shares at Buy. The average Buy-rating ratio for stocks in the S&P 500 is roughly 55%.</p><p><blockquote>尽管估值很高，但Plug仍然是华尔街的热门股票。根据新的买入评级，三分之二（即67%）的分析师将该股评级为买入。标普500股票的平均买入评级约为55%。</blockquote></p><p> At about $45 a share, the average analyst price target is a little higher than Spak’s call of $42. With shares at about $35, however, both figures imply ample upside for investors.</p><p><blockquote>分析师的平均目标价约为每股45美元，略高于Spak 42美元的看涨期权。然而，由于股价约为35美元，这两个数字都意味着投资者有充足的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> Coming into Wednesday trading, Plug stock was up less than 1% year to date, but the stock gained 973% in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>截至周三交易，Plug股票今年迄今上涨了不到1%，但该股在2020年上涨了973%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Plug Power Stock Gets a New Buy Rating Because Hydrogen Tech Is Key<blockquote>普拉格能源股票获得新的买入评级，因为氢技术是关键</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPlug Power Stock Gets a New Buy Rating Because Hydrogen Tech Is Key<blockquote>普拉格能源股票获得新的买入评级，因为氢技术是关键</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-30 22:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The hydrogen economy can help wean the world off carbon-based fossil fuels such as oil and coal. Plug Power stock is one of the best ways to play the shift, according to RBC.</p><p><blockquote>氢经济可以帮助世界摆脱对石油和煤炭等碳基化石燃料的依赖。加拿大皇家银行表示，普拉格能源股票是实现这一转变的最佳方式之一。</blockquote></p><p> Wednesday, analyst Joseph Spak launched coverage of Plug Power (ticker: PLUG) with a Buy rating and $42 price target. Plug stock was up 0.4% at $34.21 in early trading on Wednesday. Futures on the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average were flat.</p><p><blockquote>周三，分析师Joseph Spak对普拉格能源（股票代码：PLUG）给予买入评级和42美元的目标价。Plug股价周三早盘上涨0.4%，至34.21美元。标普500和道琼斯工业平均指数期货持平。</blockquote></p><p> Plug Power makes fuel cells that can run on hydrogen gas. Hydrogen doesn’t generate any carbon dioxide, the main gas blamed for climate change, when burned or used in a fuel cell to generate electricity. Plug Power’s core market is fork lifts, but it aims to expand into other areas, such as heavy-duty trucking, where its fuel cells could be used. Electrolyzer manufacturing and hydrogen production are additional long-term focuses.</p><p><blockquote>普拉格能源制造可以使用氢气的燃料电池。当氢气燃烧或用于燃料电池发电时，不会产生任何二氧化碳，二氧化碳是导致气候变化的主要气体。普拉格能源的核心市场是叉车，但它的目标是扩展到其他领域，例如重型卡车运输，在这些领域可以使用其燃料电池。电解槽制造和氢气生产是其他长期重点。</blockquote></p><p> Electrolyzers can make hydrogen and oxygen gas by passing electricity through water. If the electricity comes from renewable power such as solar, then essentially no carbon dioxide is generated anywhere along the hydrogen value chain.</p><p><blockquote>电解槽可以通过电通过水来制造氢气和氧气。如果电力来自太阳能等可再生能源，那么氢价值链上的任何地方基本上都不会产生二氧化碳。</blockquote></p><p> “Hydrogen is increasingly viewed as a key pillar of de-carbonization strategies worldwide,” wrote Spak in his initiation report. “With a lot of investment and government support, we believe a multi-decade hydrogen transition can occur.”</p><p><blockquote>“氢越来越被视为全球脱碳战略的关键支柱，”斯帕克在他的启动报告中写道。“在大量投资和政府支持下，我们相信可以实现长达数十年的氢转型。”</blockquote></p><p> That is good news for Plug Power. But the stock reflects a lot of good news already. The company trades for about 18 times Spak’s estimated annual sales. “The market has looked to Plug as a proxy for hydrogen economy growth,” Spak said. “But the growth is significant, which helps justify the valuation.”</p><p><blockquote>这对普拉格能源来说是个好消息。但该股已经反映了很多好消息。该公司的交易价格约为Spak预计年销售额的18倍。“市场已将Plug视为氢经济增长的代表，”斯帕克说。“但增长显着，这有助于证明估值的合理性。”</blockquote></p><p> His $42 price target is based in part on a discounted cash flow model, which projects cash flows far into the future, as well as a 35 times multiple on the Ebitda of $537 million he projects for 2025. In 2021, Plug is projected to have negative Ebitda—earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization—and about $85 million in Ebitda in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>他42美元的目标价部分基于贴现现金流模型，该模型预测了未来很长一段时间的现金流，以及他预测的2025年5.37亿美元Ebitda的35倍。2021年，Plug预计Ebitda（息税折旧摊销前利润）为负，2022年Ebitda约为8500万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the high valuation, Plug remains a popular stock on Wall Street. With the new Buy rating, two-thirds, or 67%, of analyst covering the stock rate the shares at Buy. The average Buy-rating ratio for stocks in the S&P 500 is roughly 55%.</p><p><blockquote>尽管估值很高，但Plug仍然是华尔街的热门股票。根据新的买入评级，三分之二（即67%）的分析师将该股评级为买入。标普500股票的平均买入评级约为55%。</blockquote></p><p> At about $45 a share, the average analyst price target is a little higher than Spak’s call of $42. With shares at about $35, however, both figures imply ample upside for investors.</p><p><blockquote>分析师的平均目标价约为每股45美元，略高于Spak 42美元的看涨期权。然而，由于股价约为35美元，这两个数字都意味着投资者有充足的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> Coming into Wednesday trading, Plug stock was up less than 1% year to date, but the stock gained 973% in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>截至周三交易，Plug股票今年迄今上涨了不到1%，但该股在2020年上涨了973%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/plug-power-stock-buy-rating-hydrogen-power-51625061264?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLUG":"普拉格能源"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/plug-power-stock-buy-rating-hydrogen-power-51625061264?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123014745","content_text":"The hydrogen economy can help wean the world off carbon-based fossil fuels such as oil and coal. Plug Power stock is one of the best ways to play the shift, according to RBC.\nWednesday, analyst Joseph Spak launched coverage of Plug Power (ticker: PLUG) with a Buy rating and $42 price target. Plug stock was up 0.4% at $34.21 in early trading on Wednesday. Futures on the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average were flat.\nPlug Power makes fuel cells that can run on hydrogen gas. Hydrogen doesn’t generate any carbon dioxide, the main gas blamed for climate change, when burned or used in a fuel cell to generate electricity. Plug Power’s core market is fork lifts, but it aims to expand into other areas, such as heavy-duty trucking, where its fuel cells could be used. Electrolyzer manufacturing and hydrogen production are additional long-term focuses.\nElectrolyzers can make hydrogen and oxygen gas by passing electricity through water. If the electricity comes from renewable power such as solar, then essentially no carbon dioxide is generated anywhere along the hydrogen value chain.\n“Hydrogen is increasingly viewed as a key pillar of de-carbonization strategies worldwide,” wrote Spak in his initiation report. “With a lot of investment and government support, we believe a multi-decade hydrogen transition can occur.”\nThat is good news for Plug Power. But the stock reflects a lot of good news already. The company trades for about 18 times Spak’s estimated annual sales. “The market has looked to Plug as a proxy for hydrogen economy growth,” Spak said. “But the growth is significant, which helps justify the valuation.”\nHis $42 price target is based in part on a discounted cash flow model, which projects cash flows far into the future, as well as a 35 times multiple on the Ebitda of $537 million he projects for 2025. In 2021, Plug is projected to have negative Ebitda—earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization—and about $85 million in Ebitda in 2022.\nDespite the high valuation, Plug remains a popular stock on Wall Street. With the new Buy rating, two-thirds, or 67%, of analyst covering the stock rate the shares at Buy. The average Buy-rating ratio for stocks in the S&P 500 is roughly 55%.\nAt about $45 a share, the average analyst price target is a little higher than Spak’s call of $42. With shares at about $35, however, both figures imply ample upside for investors.\nComing into Wednesday trading, Plug stock was up less than 1% year to date, but the stock gained 973% in 2020.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLUG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1333,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125999227,"gmtCreate":1624639441869,"gmtModify":1633950152701,"author":{"id":"3564160805001456","authorId":"3564160805001456","name":"GIANTOREO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eec389a1a84327ab96266f51dbd8a58a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564160805001456","idStr":"3564160805001456"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like ","listText":"Like ","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125999227","repostId":"1198714523","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1386,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126139189,"gmtCreate":1624546923241,"gmtModify":1634004534602,"author":{"id":"3564160805001456","authorId":"3564160805001456","name":"GIANTOREO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eec389a1a84327ab96266f51dbd8a58a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564160805001456","idStr":"3564160805001456"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"True","listText":"True","text":"True","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126139189","repostId":"1187819280","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187819280","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624529642,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1187819280?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 18:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转——这些股票将受到影响</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187819280","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.\n\nOne of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pan","content":"<p> <b>5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.</b> One of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.</p><p><blockquote><b>大流行大趋势结束的5个原因。</b>COVID-19大流行最大的投资故事之一是以“郊区避难所”为主题的非必需消费品股票的繁荣。从电商平台到家装店，再到家具和家居用品商家，许多表现最好的企业都符合这种口味。</blockquote></p><p> Take the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.</p><p><blockquote>以基础广泛的Vanguard非必需消费品指数基金ETF VCR为例，+0.66%，从2020年3月到2021年3月飙升了90%以上。这要归功于家装股Lowe's LOW(-0.30%)和Home Depot HD(-0.33%)以及TJX TJX(-0.08%)等零售商。</blockquote></p><p> Lately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>然而，最近，其中许多名称的性能开始滞后。事实上，自4月1日以来，我们看到这三只股票都小幅下跌，尽管标普500 SPX指数-0.11%同期上涨了约6%。</blockquote></p><p> And some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.</p><p><blockquote>有些人担心这可能只是开始。正如一位华尔街内部人士最近在接受彭博社采访时所说，包括五金店和家居用品商家在内的居家股票即将“大幅放松”。</blockquote></p><p> While some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.</p><p><blockquote>虽然一些知名的“郊区”交易仍然相对稳定，但麻烦的迹象已经在边缘出现。Century Communities CCS(-0.34%)和Dream Finders Homes DFH(-2.55%)这两家中型单户住宅建筑商的股价在上个月暴跌了两位数。家具方面，家电巨头惠而浦公司WHR(-0.51%)和百货公司Nordstrom JWN(+2.03%)均较春季高点大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Here are five big reasons why:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是五大原因：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1.</b> <b>The upgrade cycle is over</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.</b> <b>升级周期结束</b></blockquote></p><p> Last summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>去年夏天，被困在家里的白领们记下了逾期的项目，并利用了能够轻松与承包商见面的机会。但在许多方面，这种增长是不可持续的。</blockquote></p><p> Consider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.</p><p><blockquote>根据NPD集团的数据，考虑一下房主的购买类型。水龙头、厨柜甚至马桶都是2020年销售的最受欢迎的产品。不用说，即使是最挥霍的房主也不会遵循每年改造厨房和浴室的升级周期。</blockquote></p><p> The same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>家具和其他家居用品也是如此。互联网巨头Comscore在2020年5月记录了历史上相关网站的最高访问量，1.33亿网络冲浪者购买了某种家居用品。再说一次，新沙发或台灯不是每年都会购买的——所以这种趋势似乎无法持续很长时间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Valuations are stretched</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.估值捉襟见肘</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.</p><p><blockquote>谈到家居用品供应商的大流行后高峰，我们已经看到财务状况通过利润和销售额的增加证实了这些大幅增长。然而，我们也看到许多相关商家的股价飙升得更多——超出了历史标准的估值。</blockquote></p><p> Take TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.</p><p><blockquote>以TJX为例。目前，这家折扣零售商的远期市盈率超过26，而2020年春季的远期市盈率仅为21。其往绩市销率目前为2.1，而此前为1.4。</blockquote></p><p> What’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，TJX等之前宠儿的估值也与同行不符。考虑到目前整个标普500指数的远期市盈率为22，而其他类似的公司，如梅西百货M，+0.70%和Big Lot Big，-3.71%，实际上其远期市盈率远低于10。当然，你可以说TJX是独一无二的……但你可能也想知道目前流行的居家交易之外的许多其他股票的“公允价值”是什么样的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Delays and shortages</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.延误和短缺</b></blockquote></p><p> Future growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.</p><p><blockquote>当然，这些股票在大流行推动下达到峰值的未来增长并非不可能。但考虑到供应链中断，这似乎不太可能。造成这些延误的原因有很多，包括海外运输延误以及影响许多行业的产能和产量紧缩，但“呆在家里”的股票似乎受到的打击尤其严重。</blockquote></p><p> Home improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.</p><p><blockquote>根据全国住宅建筑商协会的数据，家装产品根本无处可寻，大约94%的建筑商报告“至少有一些严重的电器短缺”。另有93%的人缺乏框架木材，87%的人表示很难获得门窗。</blockquote></p><p> Even if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.</p><p><blockquote>即使你可以克服需求问题，如果没有原材料来发挥作用，也很难看到这一类别的未来增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Inflationary pressures</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.通货膨胀压力</b></blockquote></p><p> For the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些还没有为承包商支付现金或忍受昂贵的新家具长时间延误的人来说，现在对新购物者来说有一个相当大的抑制因素：通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.</p><p><blockquote>5月份消费者价格指数衡量的生活成本上涨0.6%，年增长率为5%。这不仅高于预期，而且是自2008年夏季以来最快的速度。通胀风险如此明显，以至于美联储公开表示可能会提前预期加息的时间表，以掩盖风险。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.</p><p><blockquote>当然，通货膨胀并不总是丧钟。但从历史上看，它削弱了购买力，并可能减少我们在去年左右看到的“呆在家里”股票的一些支出。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Home-equity hubris</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.房屋净值傲慢</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.</p><p><blockquote>说到炙手可热的通货膨胀：5月份，美国房屋中值价格首次突破35万美元，比2020年上涨23.6%。此外，Realtor.com的一项调查显示，大约三分之一的待售房主希望得到高于要价的价格，大约相同数量的房主希望在上市一周内收到报价。</blockquote></p><p> Some of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.</p><p><blockquote>其中一些是合理的。近年来，有许多文章都是关于有吸引力的市场供应短缺的，重要的是要承认疫情的远程工作确实对人们为什么住在他们居住的地方产生了一些破坏性的反思。</blockquote></p><p> But here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.</p><p><blockquote>但事情变得危险的地方是：房主已经提前在房价上花费了预期的溢价。根据房地美的数据，去年美国房屋的股权贷款约为1527亿美元，比2019年大幅增长41.7%，是自2007年以来最高的再融资套现金额。</blockquote></p><p> Anyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>有人记得2007年房地产市场发生了什么吗？还是当年类似的卖家权利感？目前还没有明显的泡沫破裂迹象，但美国房主可能对自己房屋的价值过于乐观，而且这种免费的房屋净值贷款可能不会持续太久。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转——这些股票将受到影响</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转——这些股票将受到影响</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-24 18:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p> <b>5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.</b> One of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.</p><p><blockquote><b>大流行大趋势结束的5个原因。</b>COVID-19大流行最大的投资故事之一是以“郊区避难所”为主题的非必需消费品股票的繁荣。从电商平台到家装店，再到家具和家居用品商家，许多表现最好的企业都符合这种口味。</blockquote></p><p> Take the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.</p><p><blockquote>以基础广泛的Vanguard非必需消费品指数基金ETF VCR为例，+0.66%，从2020年3月到2021年3月飙升了90%以上。这要归功于家装股Lowe's LOW(-0.30%)和Home Depot HD(-0.33%)以及TJX TJX(-0.08%)等零售商。</blockquote></p><p> Lately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>然而，最近，其中许多名称的性能开始滞后。事实上，自4月1日以来，我们看到这三只股票都小幅下跌，尽管标普500 SPX指数-0.11%同期上涨了约6%。</blockquote></p><p> And some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.</p><p><blockquote>有些人担心这可能只是开始。正如一位华尔街内部人士最近在接受彭博社采访时所说，包括五金店和家居用品商家在内的居家股票即将“大幅放松”。</blockquote></p><p> While some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.</p><p><blockquote>虽然一些知名的“郊区”交易仍然相对稳定，但麻烦的迹象已经在边缘出现。Century Communities CCS(-0.34%)和Dream Finders Homes DFH(-2.55%)这两家中型单户住宅建筑商的股价在上个月暴跌了两位数。家具方面，家电巨头惠而浦公司WHR(-0.51%)和百货公司Nordstrom JWN(+2.03%)均较春季高点大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Here are five big reasons why:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是五大原因：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1.</b> <b>The upgrade cycle is over</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.</b> <b>升级周期结束</b></blockquote></p><p> Last summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>去年夏天，被困在家里的白领们记下了逾期的项目，并利用了能够轻松与承包商见面的机会。但在许多方面，这种增长是不可持续的。</blockquote></p><p> Consider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.</p><p><blockquote>根据NPD集团的数据，考虑一下房主的购买类型。水龙头、厨柜甚至马桶都是2020年销售的最受欢迎的产品。不用说，即使是最挥霍的房主也不会遵循每年改造厨房和浴室的升级周期。</blockquote></p><p> The same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>家具和其他家居用品也是如此。互联网巨头Comscore在2020年5月记录了历史上相关网站的最高访问量，1.33亿网络冲浪者购买了某种家居用品。再说一次，新沙发或台灯不是每年都会购买的——所以这种趋势似乎无法持续很长时间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Valuations are stretched</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.估值捉襟见肘</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.</p><p><blockquote>谈到家居用品供应商的大流行后高峰，我们已经看到财务状况通过利润和销售额的增加证实了这些大幅增长。然而，我们也看到许多相关商家的股价飙升得更多——超出了历史标准的估值。</blockquote></p><p> Take TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.</p><p><blockquote>以TJX为例。目前，这家折扣零售商的远期市盈率超过26，而2020年春季的远期市盈率仅为21。其往绩市销率目前为2.1，而此前为1.4。</blockquote></p><p> What’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，TJX等之前宠儿的估值也与同行不符。考虑到目前整个标普500指数的远期市盈率为22，而其他类似的公司，如梅西百货M，+0.70%和Big Lot Big，-3.71%，实际上其远期市盈率远低于10。当然，你可以说TJX是独一无二的……但你可能也想知道目前流行的居家交易之外的许多其他股票的“公允价值”是什么样的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Delays and shortages</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.延误和短缺</b></blockquote></p><p> Future growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.</p><p><blockquote>当然，这些股票在大流行推动下达到峰值的未来增长并非不可能。但考虑到供应链中断，这似乎不太可能。造成这些延误的原因有很多，包括海外运输延误以及影响许多行业的产能和产量紧缩，但“呆在家里”的股票似乎受到的打击尤其严重。</blockquote></p><p> Home improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.</p><p><blockquote>根据全国住宅建筑商协会的数据，家装产品根本无处可寻，大约94%的建筑商报告“至少有一些严重的电器短缺”。另有93%的人缺乏框架木材，87%的人表示很难获得门窗。</blockquote></p><p> Even if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.</p><p><blockquote>即使你可以克服需求问题，如果没有原材料来发挥作用，也很难看到这一类别的未来增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Inflationary pressures</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.通货膨胀压力</b></blockquote></p><p> For the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些还没有为承包商支付现金或忍受昂贵的新家具长时间延误的人来说，现在对新购物者来说有一个相当大的抑制因素：通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.</p><p><blockquote>5月份消费者价格指数衡量的生活成本上涨0.6%，年增长率为5%。这不仅高于预期，而且是自2008年夏季以来最快的速度。通胀风险如此明显，以至于美联储公开表示可能会提前预期加息的时间表，以掩盖风险。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.</p><p><blockquote>当然，通货膨胀并不总是丧钟。但从历史上看，它削弱了购买力，并可能减少我们在去年左右看到的“呆在家里”股票的一些支出。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Home-equity hubris</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.房屋净值傲慢</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.</p><p><blockquote>说到炙手可热的通货膨胀：5月份，美国房屋中值价格首次突破35万美元，比2020年上涨23.6%。此外，Realtor.com的一项调查显示，大约三分之一的待售房主希望得到高于要价的价格，大约相同数量的房主希望在上市一周内收到报价。</blockquote></p><p> Some of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.</p><p><blockquote>其中一些是合理的。近年来，有许多文章都是关于有吸引力的市场供应短缺的，重要的是要承认疫情的远程工作确实对人们为什么住在他们居住的地方产生了一些破坏性的反思。</blockquote></p><p> But here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.</p><p><blockquote>但事情变得危险的地方是：房主已经提前在房价上花费了预期的溢价。根据房地美的数据，去年美国房屋的股权贷款约为1527亿美元，比2019年大幅增长41.7%，是自2007年以来最高的再融资套现金额。</blockquote></p><p> Anyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>有人记得2007年房地产市场发生了什么吗？还是当年类似的卖家权利感？目前还没有明显的泡沫破裂迹象，但美国房主可能对自己房屋的价值过于乐观，而且这种免费的房屋净值贷款可能不会持续太久。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-shelter-in-suburbia-trade-is-about-to-reverse-and-these-stocks-will-suffer-11624457411?siteid=yhoof2\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-shelter-in-suburbia-trade-is-about-to-reverse-and-these-stocks-will-suffer-11624457411?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187819280","content_text":"5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.\n\nOne of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.\nTake the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.\nLately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.\nAnd some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.\nWhile some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.\nHere are five big reasons why:\n1. The upgrade cycle is over\nLast summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.\nConsider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.\nThe same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.\n2. Valuations are stretched\nSpeaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.\nTake TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.\nWhat’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.\n3. Delays and shortages\nFuture growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.\nHome improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.\nEven if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.\n4. Inflationary pressures\nFor the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.\nThe cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.\nInflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.\n5. Home-equity hubris\nSpeaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.\nSome of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.\nBut here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.\nAnyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2644,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126130600,"gmtCreate":1624546896300,"gmtModify":1634004535323,"author":{"id":"3564160805001456","authorId":"3564160805001456","name":"GIANTOREO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eec389a1a84327ab96266f51dbd8a58a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564160805001456","idStr":"3564160805001456"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126130600","repostId":"1187819280","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187819280","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624529642,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1187819280?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 18:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转——这些股票将受到影响</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187819280","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.\n\nOne of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pan","content":"<p> <b>5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.</b> One of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.</p><p><blockquote><b>大流行大趋势结束的5个原因。</b>COVID-19大流行最大的投资故事之一是以“郊区避难所”为主题的非必需消费品股票的繁荣。从电商平台到家装店，再到家具和家居用品商家，许多表现最好的企业都符合这种口味。</blockquote></p><p> Take the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.</p><p><blockquote>以基础广泛的Vanguard非必需消费品指数基金ETF VCR为例，+0.66%，从2020年3月到2021年3月飙升了90%以上。这要归功于家装股Lowe's LOW(-0.30%)和Home Depot HD(-0.33%)以及TJX TJX(-0.08%)等零售商。</blockquote></p><p> Lately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>然而，最近，其中许多名称的性能开始滞后。事实上，自4月1日以来，我们看到这三只股票都小幅下跌，尽管标普500 SPX指数-0.11%同期上涨了约6%。</blockquote></p><p> And some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.</p><p><blockquote>有些人担心这可能只是开始。正如一位华尔街内部人士最近在接受彭博社采访时所说，包括五金店和家居用品商家在内的居家股票即将“大幅放松”。</blockquote></p><p> While some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.</p><p><blockquote>虽然一些知名的“郊区”交易仍然相对稳定，但麻烦的迹象已经在边缘出现。Century Communities CCS(-0.34%)和Dream Finders Homes DFH(-2.55%)这两家中型单户住宅建筑商的股价在上个月暴跌了两位数。家具方面，家电巨头惠而浦公司WHR(-0.51%)和百货公司Nordstrom JWN(+2.03%)均较春季高点大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Here are five big reasons why:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是五大原因：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1.</b> <b>The upgrade cycle is over</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.</b> <b>升级周期结束</b></blockquote></p><p> Last summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>去年夏天，被困在家里的白领们记下了逾期的项目，并利用了能够轻松与承包商见面的机会。但在许多方面，这种增长是不可持续的。</blockquote></p><p> Consider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.</p><p><blockquote>根据NPD集团的数据，考虑一下房主的购买类型。水龙头、厨柜甚至马桶都是2020年销售的最受欢迎的产品。不用说，即使是最挥霍的房主也不会遵循每年改造厨房和浴室的升级周期。</blockquote></p><p> The same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>家具和其他家居用品也是如此。互联网巨头Comscore在2020年5月记录了历史上相关网站的最高访问量，1.33亿网络冲浪者购买了某种家居用品。再说一次，新沙发或台灯不是每年都会购买的——所以这种趋势似乎无法持续很长时间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Valuations are stretched</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.估值捉襟见肘</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.</p><p><blockquote>谈到家居用品供应商的大流行后高峰，我们已经看到财务状况通过利润和销售额的增加证实了这些大幅增长。然而，我们也看到许多相关商家的股价飙升得更多——超出了历史标准的估值。</blockquote></p><p> Take TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.</p><p><blockquote>以TJX为例。目前，这家折扣零售商的远期市盈率超过26，而2020年春季的远期市盈率仅为21。其往绩市销率目前为2.1，而此前为1.4。</blockquote></p><p> What’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，TJX等之前宠儿的估值也与同行不符。考虑到目前整个标普500指数的远期市盈率为22，而其他类似的公司，如梅西百货M，+0.70%和Big Lot Big，-3.71%，实际上其远期市盈率远低于10。当然，你可以说TJX是独一无二的……但你可能也想知道目前流行的居家交易之外的许多其他股票的“公允价值”是什么样的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Delays and shortages</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.延误和短缺</b></blockquote></p><p> Future growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.</p><p><blockquote>当然，这些股票在大流行推动下达到峰值的未来增长并非不可能。但考虑到供应链中断，这似乎不太可能。造成这些延误的原因有很多，包括海外运输延误以及影响许多行业的产能和产量紧缩，但“呆在家里”的股票似乎受到的打击尤其严重。</blockquote></p><p> Home improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.</p><p><blockquote>根据全国住宅建筑商协会的数据，家装产品根本无处可寻，大约94%的建筑商报告“至少有一些严重的电器短缺”。另有93%的人缺乏框架木材，87%的人表示很难获得门窗。</blockquote></p><p> Even if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.</p><p><blockquote>即使你可以克服需求问题，如果没有原材料来发挥作用，也很难看到这一类别的未来增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Inflationary pressures</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.通货膨胀压力</b></blockquote></p><p> For the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些还没有为承包商支付现金或忍受昂贵的新家具长时间延误的人来说，现在对新购物者来说有一个相当大的抑制因素：通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.</p><p><blockquote>5月份消费者价格指数衡量的生活成本上涨0.6%，年增长率为5%。这不仅高于预期，而且是自2008年夏季以来最快的速度。通胀风险如此明显，以至于美联储公开表示可能会提前预期加息的时间表，以掩盖风险。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.</p><p><blockquote>当然，通货膨胀并不总是丧钟。但从历史上看，它削弱了购买力，并可能减少我们在去年左右看到的“呆在家里”股票的一些支出。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Home-equity hubris</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.房屋净值傲慢</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.</p><p><blockquote>说到炙手可热的通货膨胀：5月份，美国房屋中值价格首次突破35万美元，比2020年上涨23.6%。此外，Realtor.com的一项调查显示，大约三分之一的待售房主希望得到高于要价的价格，大约相同数量的房主希望在上市一周内收到报价。</blockquote></p><p> Some of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.</p><p><blockquote>其中一些是合理的。近年来，有许多文章都是关于有吸引力的市场供应短缺的，重要的是要承认疫情的远程工作确实对人们为什么住在他们居住的地方产生了一些破坏性的反思。</blockquote></p><p> But here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.</p><p><blockquote>但事情变得危险的地方是：房主已经提前在房价上花费了预期的溢价。根据房地美的数据，去年美国房屋的股权贷款约为1527亿美元，比2019年大幅增长41.7%，是自2007年以来最高的再融资套现金额。</blockquote></p><p> Anyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>有人记得2007年房地产市场发生了什么吗？还是当年类似的卖家权利感？目前还没有明显的泡沫破裂迹象，但美国房主可能对自己房屋的价值过于乐观，而且这种免费的房屋净值贷款可能不会持续太久。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转——这些股票将受到影响</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转——这些股票将受到影响</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-24 18:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p> <b>5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.</b> One of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.</p><p><blockquote><b>大流行大趋势结束的5个原因。</b>COVID-19大流行最大的投资故事之一是以“郊区避难所”为主题的非必需消费品股票的繁荣。从电商平台到家装店，再到家具和家居用品商家，许多表现最好的企业都符合这种口味。</blockquote></p><p> Take the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.</p><p><blockquote>以基础广泛的Vanguard非必需消费品指数基金ETF VCR为例，+0.66%，从2020年3月到2021年3月飙升了90%以上。这要归功于家装股Lowe's LOW(-0.30%)和Home Depot HD(-0.33%)以及TJX TJX(-0.08%)等零售商。</blockquote></p><p> Lately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>然而，最近，其中许多名称的性能开始滞后。事实上，自4月1日以来，我们看到这三只股票都小幅下跌，尽管标普500 SPX指数-0.11%同期上涨了约6%。</blockquote></p><p> And some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.</p><p><blockquote>有些人担心这可能只是开始。正如一位华尔街内部人士最近在接受彭博社采访时所说，包括五金店和家居用品商家在内的居家股票即将“大幅放松”。</blockquote></p><p> While some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.</p><p><blockquote>虽然一些知名的“郊区”交易仍然相对稳定，但麻烦的迹象已经在边缘出现。Century Communities CCS(-0.34%)和Dream Finders Homes DFH(-2.55%)这两家中型单户住宅建筑商的股价在上个月暴跌了两位数。家具方面，家电巨头惠而浦公司WHR(-0.51%)和百货公司Nordstrom JWN(+2.03%)均较春季高点大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Here are five big reasons why:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是五大原因：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1.</b> <b>The upgrade cycle is over</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.</b> <b>升级周期结束</b></blockquote></p><p> Last summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>去年夏天，被困在家里的白领们记下了逾期的项目，并利用了能够轻松与承包商见面的机会。但在许多方面，这种增长是不可持续的。</blockquote></p><p> Consider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.</p><p><blockquote>根据NPD集团的数据，考虑一下房主的购买类型。水龙头、厨柜甚至马桶都是2020年销售的最受欢迎的产品。不用说，即使是最挥霍的房主也不会遵循每年改造厨房和浴室的升级周期。</blockquote></p><p> The same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>家具和其他家居用品也是如此。互联网巨头Comscore在2020年5月记录了历史上相关网站的最高访问量，1.33亿网络冲浪者购买了某种家居用品。再说一次，新沙发或台灯不是每年都会购买的——所以这种趋势似乎无法持续很长时间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Valuations are stretched</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.估值捉襟见肘</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.</p><p><blockquote>谈到家居用品供应商的大流行后高峰，我们已经看到财务状况通过利润和销售额的增加证实了这些大幅增长。然而，我们也看到许多相关商家的股价飙升得更多——超出了历史标准的估值。</blockquote></p><p> Take TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.</p><p><blockquote>以TJX为例。目前，这家折扣零售商的远期市盈率超过26，而2020年春季的远期市盈率仅为21。其往绩市销率目前为2.1，而此前为1.4。</blockquote></p><p> What’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，TJX等之前宠儿的估值也与同行不符。考虑到目前整个标普500指数的远期市盈率为22，而其他类似的公司，如梅西百货M，+0.70%和Big Lot Big，-3.71%，实际上其远期市盈率远低于10。当然，你可以说TJX是独一无二的……但你可能也想知道目前流行的居家交易之外的许多其他股票的“公允价值”是什么样的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Delays and shortages</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.延误和短缺</b></blockquote></p><p> Future growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.</p><p><blockquote>当然，这些股票在大流行推动下达到峰值的未来增长并非不可能。但考虑到供应链中断，这似乎不太可能。造成这些延误的原因有很多，包括海外运输延误以及影响许多行业的产能和产量紧缩，但“呆在家里”的股票似乎受到的打击尤其严重。</blockquote></p><p> Home improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.</p><p><blockquote>根据全国住宅建筑商协会的数据，家装产品根本无处可寻，大约94%的建筑商报告“至少有一些严重的电器短缺”。另有93%的人缺乏框架木材，87%的人表示很难获得门窗。</blockquote></p><p> Even if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.</p><p><blockquote>即使你可以克服需求问题，如果没有原材料来发挥作用，也很难看到这一类别的未来增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Inflationary pressures</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.通货膨胀压力</b></blockquote></p><p> For the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些还没有为承包商支付现金或忍受昂贵的新家具长时间延误的人来说，现在对新购物者来说有一个相当大的抑制因素：通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.</p><p><blockquote>5月份消费者价格指数衡量的生活成本上涨0.6%，年增长率为5%。这不仅高于预期，而且是自2008年夏季以来最快的速度。通胀风险如此明显，以至于美联储公开表示可能会提前预期加息的时间表，以掩盖风险。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.</p><p><blockquote>当然，通货膨胀并不总是丧钟。但从历史上看，它削弱了购买力，并可能减少我们在去年左右看到的“呆在家里”股票的一些支出。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Home-equity hubris</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.房屋净值傲慢</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.</p><p><blockquote>说到炙手可热的通货膨胀：5月份，美国房屋中值价格首次突破35万美元，比2020年上涨23.6%。此外，Realtor.com的一项调查显示，大约三分之一的待售房主希望得到高于要价的价格，大约相同数量的房主希望在上市一周内收到报价。</blockquote></p><p> Some of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.</p><p><blockquote>其中一些是合理的。近年来，有许多文章都是关于有吸引力的市场供应短缺的，重要的是要承认疫情的远程工作确实对人们为什么住在他们居住的地方产生了一些破坏性的反思。</blockquote></p><p> But here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.</p><p><blockquote>但事情变得危险的地方是：房主已经提前在房价上花费了预期的溢价。根据房地美的数据，去年美国房屋的股权贷款约为1527亿美元，比2019年大幅增长41.7%，是自2007年以来最高的再融资套现金额。</blockquote></p><p> Anyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>有人记得2007年房地产市场发生了什么吗？还是当年类似的卖家权利感？目前还没有明显的泡沫破裂迹象，但美国房主可能对自己房屋的价值过于乐观，而且这种免费的房屋净值贷款可能不会持续太久。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-shelter-in-suburbia-trade-is-about-to-reverse-and-these-stocks-will-suffer-11624457411?siteid=yhoof2\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-shelter-in-suburbia-trade-is-about-to-reverse-and-these-stocks-will-suffer-11624457411?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187819280","content_text":"5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.\n\nOne of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.\nTake the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.\nLately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.\nAnd some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.\nWhile some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.\nHere are five big reasons why:\n1. The upgrade cycle is over\nLast summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.\nConsider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.\nThe same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.\n2. Valuations are stretched\nSpeaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.\nTake TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.\nWhat’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.\n3. Delays and shortages\nFuture growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.\nHome improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.\nEven if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.\n4. Inflationary pressures\nFor the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.\nThe cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.\nInflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.\n5. Home-equity hubris\nSpeaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.\nSome of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.\nBut here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.\nAnyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":673,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126197852,"gmtCreate":1624546863776,"gmtModify":1634004536161,"author":{"id":"3564160805001456","authorId":"3564160805001456","name":"GIANTOREO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eec389a1a84327ab96266f51dbd8a58a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3564160805001456","idStr":"3564160805001456"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Share","listText":"Share","text":"Share","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/674f18916048d36b9e524b3f5560cd26","width":"1080","height":"3264"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126197852","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1872,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}